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Commonwealth Edison Co Zion Nuclear Power Station Aircraft Crash Fire Detection Sys Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation
	ML20247D089
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Site:	Zion File:ZionSolutions icon.png
Issue date:	01/31/1989
From:	; FLUOR DANIEL, INC.
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ML20247D080	List: ML20247D079; ML20247D084; ML20247D089;
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'i I-i I COMMONWEALTH EDISON COMPANY ZION NUCLEAR POWER STATION AIRCRAFT FIRE DETECTION SYSTEM ANALYSIS l PROEABILISTIC RISK. EVALUATION TABLE OF CONTENTS l Pace No. APPENDICES.............................................. i l FIGURES AND TABLES...................................... 11 INTRODUCTION........................ 1 CONCLUSION............................................... 2 I 1.0 Methodology and Description of the Analytical Model...............................'............... 4 1.1 Identification.of Aircraft Hazards............. 4 1.2 Description of the Analytical Model............ 5 2.0 Description, Location and Orientation of Waukegan Regional Airport Relative to the i Zion Nuclear Power Station......................... 9 2.1 Description of Waukegan Regional Airport....... 9 2.2 Location of Zion Nuc3 ear Station to Waukegan Regional Airport............................... 9 I 3.0 Operation Numbers of Waukegan Regional Airport............................................ 10 3.0 Operation Numbers.............................. 10 3.1 Local versus Itinerant Traffic................. 14 4.0 Developm2nt of General Aviation Postcrash I Fire Statistics.................................... 15 4.1 Introduction................................... 15 I. 4.2 Number of General Aviation Operations.......... 16 4.3 General Aviation Fatal and Serious Accidents... 17 4.4 Percentage of Fatal and Serious Accidents Which Resulted in Postcrash fires.............. 17 I 4.5 Conclusion and Results......................... 18

TABLE OF CONTENTS - (cont'd.) t Pace No. h i 5.0 Specific Plant Target Areas........................ 20 l J 5.1 Introduction and Description of Methodology.... { 20 5.2 Target Area A (Diesel Intakes)................. 21 1 5.3 Target Area B (Auxiliary Building Intakes)..... 22 I 5.4 Target Area C (Crib House Intakes)............. 22 4 l 6.0 Quantitative Evaluation............................ 23 ) I 6.1 Probability Risk Assessment of Runway 23 l Instrument Landing System Holding Pattern...... 24 6.2 Comparison with Other Analytical Models j j Corporate / Business Jet Travel.................. 27 l 6.3 Actual Waukegan Regional Airport Accident i History........................................ 30 7.0 Qualitative Evaluation............................. 33 7.1 Increased Aircraft Operation Numbers due to Training Exercises............................. 33 7.2 Traffic Flight Tracks - Right and Left Hand Traffic Patterns............................... 34 7.3 Physical Plant Design and Trajectories......... 35 7.4 Instrument Landing Approaches to Runway 23..... 37 7.5 Development of the Postcrash Fire Statistics... 37 7.6 Fuel Loading and Fuel Spill Areas.............. 40 8.0 Future General Aviation Activity at Wauke Regional Airport.........................gan 41 8.1 Increase in Traffic Activity at Waukegan Regional Airport through the year 2000 and its Effects on the Postcrash Fire Probabilities.... 41 8.2 Future Developments at Waukegan Regional Airport........................................ 42 REFERENCES.............................................. 43

] CtamonWCalth Edicen C rpany 31cn.Nus1COr Pr.v0r Station Pago i Aircraft CrOch Firo D:tostien Cystems' Analysis .I Probabilistic. Risk Evaluation APPENDICES I APPENDIX 1 - FAA Airport Master Record (Form 5010-1) Waukegan Regional Airport (12 months ending November 30, 1986) Daily Airport Traffic Record i October 1988 November 1988 APPENDIX 2 - Total General Aviation Operations (Terminal Area _Porecasts) National Summary by Region' - 1976-1995 Great Lakes Summary by. State . 1982-2000 Waukegan Regional Airport - 1988-2005 APPENDIX 3 - Fatal and Serious Accident Data-Postcrash Fire Data Years 1977 through 1985 APPENDIX 4 . Figure 1 - 1986 Flight Tracks - Touch & Go Operations 1 Figure 2 - 1986 Flight Tracks - Departures Figure 3 - 1986 Flight Tracks - Arrivals APPENDIX 5 - Photographs of Plant Target Areas Photograph 1 Aerial View of Zion Nuclear Station Photograph 2 View of Area A - Diesel Generator and Switchgear Room Ventilation Intakes (Unit 1) l View of Area B - Auxiliary Building Photograph 3 Ventilation Intakes View of Area'C - Crib House Service Photograph 4 Water Ventilation Intakes APPENDIX 6 - Complete Accident History of Waukegan Regional Airport Years - 1964 through 1987

cram:nwacith Edicen C3cpSny sien Nus10Cr PO"JCr Ototien POg3 ii Aircroft crach FirG D2toctiCD CyOtem3 An31ycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1 - Location and Orientation of Waukegan Regional Airport relative to Zion Nuclear Power Station. Figure 2 Prnperty Development Plan showing Impact Areas. Target krea A, Diesel Generator'and Switchgear Room _ I Figure 3 Ventilation System Air intakes (Unit-1). Figure 4 Target Area B, Auxiliary Building Ventilation System Air intakes. i Figure 5 Target Area C, Crib House Service Water Pump Area Ven-J tilation System Air intake. j l i i Annual Operations at Waukegan Regional Airport by Air- 'i Table 1 craft Type. (Base Year 1986,'1991 forecast) Table 2 Annual Operations at Waukegan Regional Airport by Air-craft Type. (Base Year 1988) Table 3 Total number of Tower and Non-Tower General Aviation Aircrafn Operations (Years 1977-1981). Table 4 Total Number of Fatal and Serious General Aviation Ac'ci-dents (within a 3 to 4 mile radius of an airport) (Years 1977-1981). Table 5 Percentage of Fatal and Serious General Aviation Accidents Which Resulted in Postcrash Fires'(Years 1977-1985). Table 6 Summary of Aircraft Accidents at Waukegan Regional Airport - 1964 through 1987. Regional Difference in General Aviation Accident Table 7 Rates 1980 through 1986.

I a Cram 3nw3cith Edicon Cc:rpOny Rica Nu21ocr.P;wcr'Ctation .POgo 1' AircrOft crach Fira DOtOcticn Cyctem3 AnSlyDiD' 4 Probabilistic Risk Evaluation. INTRODUCTION l The purpose of this study is to determine the need for an - aircraft crash fire detection system ~ at the ' Zion ' Nuclear Power Station. This is accomplished by a prebabilis-tic risk evaluation to estimate the potential for an aircraft accident.which could result in an exposure fire hazard. at l specific plant ai:- intakes. 1 l An analytical model showing the relationship of Zion I Nuclear Power Station (ZNPS) to area airports and air traffic ] densities has been developed. The selection of the aircraft hazards' to be evaluated hav, been in accordance with NUREG 0800 Standard Review Plan (SF?f Section 3.5.1.6 Aircraft Hazards-(Rev. 2 - July 1981). In addition, current postcrash-fire j statistics have been used to further develop the analytical .j model. From this model, the probability of an aircraft' crash which results in fire or smoke entering critical plant air intake vents has been estimated. The air-intake vent areas analyzed are listed below: Area A - Diesel Generator and Switchgear Room Ventilation System air intakes located at Elevation 592' on the west side of the Diesel Generator Rooms. -(Unit' l and Unit 2) Area B - Auxiliary Building Ventilation System intake located at Elevation 642' on the north side of the Auxiliary Building. Area C - Crib House Service Water Pump Area Ventilation System intakes located on the Crib House roof at Elevation 616'- 6".

Cumannw0cith Edicen Cc5 pony Eicn NuD10er P wor Ctntion Pago 2 Aircraft CrOch Pira DetOction SystemD AnalyDic Probabilistic Risk Evaluation CONCLUSION )J l The need for a postcrash fire detection. system at' the intake vents of the Zion Nuclear Power Station is unwar-ranted, due to the low probability of such an event occurring. Estimates of-the probabilities - per year of a postcrash aircraft accident involving a fire occurring with sufficient proximity to the ventilation intakes to present a hazard are listed below: General Aviation Aircraft: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents..... 6.2 x 10. a per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents...........

4. 7 x 10'8 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents.........

1.3 x 10'I per year Corporate Jet Aircraft: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 7.4 x ~10 per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents........... 5.7 x 10 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents......... 1.5 x 108 per year. The probabilities listed above are based on the current level of aircraft activity at the.Waukegan Regional Airport and the analytical model developed in this report. The lower probabilities of a corporate jet accident reflect the low number of operations of these aircraft (currently less than 6% of total operations). Further investigation using other models, such as the SRP model, and the actual accident history at Waukegan Regional Airport confirms these low probabilities.

C:mm:nwacith EdiCon C GP:ny Eicn NuclOcr P war StCtien POg3 3 Aircraft CrCCh Firo D0tOction Syst:0:23 AnnlyciD Probabilistic Risk Evaluation The calculated probabilities listed above have been based on conservative quantitative and qualitative assump-tions. These assumptions are detailed in Section 6 and Section 7. Six qualitative arguments are presented that we I believe conservative 1y' further reduce the probability of an aircraft postcrash fire accident by 50%. The reduced probabi-lities with these qualitative arguments are listed below: General Aviation Aircraft: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 3.1 x 10-8 per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents...........

2. 4 x 10'8 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents.........

6. 5 x 10 a per year Corporate Jet Aircraft:

Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 3.7 x 10 per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents...........

2. 9 x 10 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents.........

7. 5 x 10 per year Current nstimates indicate that total airport operations at Waukegan Regional Airport will grow at a 4.8%

annual rate. Jet air traffic is expected to increase quickly and then level off due to the lengthened runway, control

tower, and instrument landing system making the airport more available to these aircraft.

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C:mmenwccith Edicen C :Fpany Eien Nuclocr P wor CtStien POga 10-Aircraft Crach Firo D3tOctica CyctcnD Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 3.0 Operation Numbers of Waukeaan Recional Airo_gr_t; The number of operations at an airport re"ers to the-number of take-offs, landings, and touch and go's (a landing and take-off without stopping). Touch and go operations occur frequently at airports with a high level of training activity such as WRA. Tower airports ar9 required to record each operation, but at a non-tower airport operation numbers are usually only an estimate. As noted earlier, previous. to October 1, 1988 WRA was a non-tower airport. l Both tower and non-tower airports must register a I 5010 form with the FAA which includes the number of operations and other data concerning airport operations. The 5010 form for WRA dated 08-14-84 stated ~that there were 214,300 opera-- tions during the past year. Comparisons for the same year with two of the areas largest general aviation airports show Pal-Waukee with 150,000 operations per year, and Bowman Field with 238,000 operations per year. Both airports are larger and have greater number of runways. Therefore, these early 5010 figures for WRA seem disproportionally high. Independent traffic counts undertaken in the summer of 1985 at WRA also corroborated this view. An in-field traffic count completed in May 1985 resulted in an estimate of 97,511 operations per year. A consulting firm working on a Phase I Layout Plan Report completed a more thorough study. The numbers from this report show 121,618 operations per year. Both reports are also in agreement that over 95% of the current general aviation traffic consists of single or twin engine propeller aircraft, with approximately 5% business jet aircraft.

C:mm3nrocith Edicen Crap 2ny Rica Nuc100r Pow 0r CtStien POg3.11 Aircroft Crcch Piro D3tOctica Cyctem3 An31yDi'O Probabilistic Risk Evaluation The consulting firm working on the Part 150 Airport Noise Compatibility Study also reviewed operation numbers at WRA.UU This report also determined that the traffic count I number of 121,618 was a valid estimate and used this number in their report.. Further investigation by this firm relating to their aircraft noise study broke this operation number into type of aircraft. These figures are shown in Table 1 below: Table 1 l Annual Operations at Waukegan Regional Airport by Aircraft Type l 1986 1991 Forecast-Annual Percent Annual Percent Tvoe OperationE Nicht Oneratigng Diaht Gulfstream G2/G3 2,526 0.05 7,800 4.4 Small Jet 4,395 0.05 11,500 5.0 Gulfstream G1 540 0.00 .730 0.0 Small Turbo-prop 4,161 0.05 11,500 5.0 Small 2-Engine Prop 3,781 0.06 5,000 5.1 Small 1-Engine Prop 106,215 0.02 138,350 2.4 TOTAL 121,618 174,880 The above numbers are bated on in-field traffic counts repre:senting only small time periods that are used as averages. With the control tower now in operation even more acenrate operation numbers can be obtained. The control tower l is in operation from 6:00AM to 8:00PM. This time period 1 represents over 99% of the airport activity. Tower airports must keep daily records of total operations. For this study the daily operations were obtained from Waukegan Port District offices for the months of October i and November of 1988.

These are the only months available,

Cnmannw:nith Ediccn CrpSI.r7 Sica.Mu21Cer P war'Ctntien Pago 12. Aircraft Crach Firo DetOOtica Cyatem3 AnnlyOiD Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I i since tower operation commenced on October 1, 1988). Copies. of these reports are shown in' Appendix 1. Total activity-for the month of October is recorded as 9,264 operations, and November 1988 activity is recorded as 7,130 operations. In order to create an accurate yearly operation number from these two months of data, the monthly operation records of the Pal-Waukee > airport (a similar general aviation airport) were obtained. " The monthly seasonality of the ' wo t airports would be expected to bo similar.since both airports would both be experiencing the same weather patterns. Using the same monthly percentage' values of the two airports,.the operations per year number of WRA was calculated to be 105,013. To this figure, 1% additional operations per year were added to account for activity outside of the tower control hours. Therefore, the total number of operations per year for the base year 1988 has been calculated to be 106,063. This close agreement of the earlier traffic count and the yearly value as calculated from actual monthly operations gives a high degree of ' confidence in our yearly operations number. Since this operation per year number has j been calculated from newer data (1988 versus 1985) and from ) I actual daily data (rather than one. to two week traffic counts), it will be used as the base year operations per year number for the purpose of this study, i The breakdown by aircraft type does not appear on ] the daily Airport Traffic ' Record. For this reason. the - aircraft type breakdown used for the Part 150 Airport Noise Compatibility Study described above will be adopted for-use here. For this study, the breakdown of aircraft type will be divided into two categories. This is necessary because of the

1 Ccamsnw3Olth Edicen CCCpOny Zicn Nucicar-Pswsr. Station. Ptga 13 . Aircraft CrOch Firo Detectien Systems Analysis 3 P::ababilistic Risk Evaluation I difference in operations per year,. accident history, and expected growth rate of the two categories.of aircraft. i The first and largest category will represent general aviation single and double engine propellerfaircraft, I including small turbo-prop aircraft. These aircraft are generally u ed for personal,

training, and recreational i

flying. The second category will be small jet aircraft typically used for corporate business flying. Typical j aircraft of this type would be the Gulfstream G2/G3 and' Lear Jet varieties. 1 In

summary, Table 2

below shows the aircraft operations at WRA per year by category that will be used in this stady. ] Table 2 j Annual Operations at Waukegan Regional Airport by Aircraft Type Base Year 1988 1988 i Annual ODerations Percent TYPE: CATEGORY I 100,027 94.3% l General Aviation - Single engine - Twin engine - Small Turbo-prop CATEGORY II 6,036 5.7% Business jet aircraft - Gulfstream G2/G3 - Small jet TOTALS 106,063 100% l .______-_-_-__-__O

A c mm:nws31th Ediccn C cpsnv Eicn NuSlCOr P:Ocr CtOtich .Pcga.14 Aircraft Crnch Firo D;t<cticn CyatcCO Analyaic Probabilistic Risk Evaluation. s 3.1 Local Versus Itinerant Traffic Local airport operations are defined by the FAA as operatio.ts performed by aif6taft which: (a) Operate in the 3 Wal traffic pattern or within sight of the a$rport. (b)- Are known ' to be departing for, or - arriving from, flight in local practice are'as'within a 20-mile radius of.the airport. (c) Execute simulated instrument approaches or. low passes at the airport. Itinerant operations are all aircraft operations-other than local operations.02) The percentage of local and itinarant aircraft-operations at WRA is shown on the daily Alrcraft Traffic Record. The percentage is approximately 50% local and 50% itinerant (see Appendix 1). Many of these local operations are training flights that operate in very close. proximity of the airport. Touch and go la,.iing and training operations are included in these operation numbers, and each touch and go is recorded twice, once for a landing and once'for a take-off.- This recording method increases the local operation number and, therefore, increases the total operation number. These training touch and go operations increase the operational numbers of the airport, but these training flights tend to stay in very tight circles around the airport (within-1 mile) practicing numerous take-offs and landings and rarely venturing on long flight excursions. Typical flight tracks of these touch and go operations can be seen in Figure 1 of Appendix 4. This issue will be further developed in Sec. 7.1.

Commonwealth Edison Company Zion Nuclear Power Station Page 15 Aircraft Crash Fira Datsction Systems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 4.0 Development of General Aviation Postcrash Fire Statistics 4.1 Introduction This section contains an explanation and derivation of the aircraft crash statistics used in the analytical model. The following information must be known to determine the number of general aviation accidents per operation that result in a postcrash fire within a 3 to 4 mile radius of an airport: 1) The total number of general aviation aircraft operations occurring at both tower and nontower airports within the database considered. 2) The total.surber of serious and fatal accidents involving general aviation aircraft occurring within a 3 to 4 mile radius of an airport within the data base considered. 3) The percentage of accidents, as listed above, which result in a postcrash fire. The database to be considered for the analytical model will be general aviation flying within the United States, since United States general aviation flying is most representative of the flying done at WRA. In addition, the data available is accurate and complete. i ) l

Comm2n Ocith Eflictn Comptny Eicn Nu3100r PIwcr CtStien' PCga'16 Aircraft CrCCh Firo D3tOctica CyctcCO An21ycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation l 4.2 Number of General Aviation Aircraft ODerations in The United States (Years 1977-1981) To determine the number of general aviation aircraft operations in the United States, the number of operations at both tower and non-tower operations must be added. The number of general aviation operations at tower airports can be obtained from the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts.U3) Tower airports are required by the FAA to record each operation. Non-tower airports include small airports 'and private runways. No records of operations are kept for this group. The best estimate of total general aviation operations can be obtained from the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts. The figures given represent estimates of general aviation total operations at 4000 public use airports. FAA officials stated that these numbers represent 85% of all general aviation aircraft operations.U') The figures given in Table 3 repre-sent the figures published in the FAA forecast plus 15%. This increase includes the small and private airports that are not covered in the 4000 airport data base. There-fore, for the five year period 1977 through 1981, it is estimated that there were 679.5 million general aviation operations. Table 3 Total Number of Tower and Non-Tower General Aviation Aircraft Operations (Years 1977 - 1981) Total years 1977 1977 1P_73 1979 1980 1981 thru 1981 Aircraft operations j (Millions) 125.2 133.3 138.4 142.6 140.1 679.5 i

I i C mm:n:Onith Edican Comp 2ny Zicn Nu31 Car Powcr Station POg3 17 Aircraft CrOch Fira DetOcticn SyctCO3 An31y0ic Probabilistic Risk Evaluation i I i d 4.3 Number of,_ Serious and Fatal Accidents Involvina General Aviation Aircraft. Occurrina With a 3'to 4 Mile Radius of an AirDort. Data regarding fatal and serious general aviation accidents were obtained from The National Transportation Safety Board database and are presented in Appendix 3.W3 Table 4 shows a summary of the pertinent data. Only the years 1977 through 1981 can be used since after this date the NTSB does not separate accidents into distances from the airports. j For the 5 year period,1977 through 1981, there were 101 fatal ) ) and serious accidents occurring within 3 to 4 miles of an airport. Table 4 Total Number of Fatal and Serious { General Aviation Accidents (Years 1977 - 1981) I (within 3 to 4 miles of an airport) 1977 1978 191R 1980

19JJ, TOTAL I

I j Fatal Accidents 18 14 11 14 13 70 Serious I Accidents 5 6 4 7 9 31 Total 23 20 15 21 22 101 4.4 Percentaae of Fatal and Serious General Aviation Accidents Which Resulted in a Postcrash Fire. Data pertaining to postcrash fires in general aviation aircraft accidents were also available from the National Transportation Safety Board.W3 Table 5 shows a summary of the pertinent data. I

commonwanith Edison CompOny Zion Nuc1 car Power Station Page 18 Aircraft crach Firo D3tsction Systsan Annlycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I Table 5 Percentage of Fatal and Serious General Aviation AcciJents Which Resulted in Postcrash Fires (Years 1977 - 1985) Fatal And Serious Number of Percentage of Accidents ~Postcrash Fires Postcrash Fires 1977 1,061 237 22.3% I 1978 1,146 222 19.4% 1979 1,005 213 21.2% 1L80 1,016 191 18.8% 1981 1,003 241 24.0% 1982 946 216 22.8% 1983 883 166 18.8% 1984 904 203 22.5% 1985 816 181 22.2% Average 1977 through 1985 21.3% For the nine year period, 1977 through 1985, an I average of 21.3% of fatal and serious accidents resulted in a postcrash fire. 4.5 Conclusion and Results. From the figures developed above, the following statistics for general aviation fatal and serious accidents which resulted in postcrash fires have been developed. g By dividing the number of tower and non-tower

n general aviation operations in the U.S. (Section 4.2) into the number of fatal and serious accidents with a 3 to 4 mile radius (Section 4.3), the following figure is developed:

I

Commonwealth Edison Company Zion Nucloar Power Station Page 19 Aircraft Crash Fire Datection Systems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 101 1.49 x 10 fatal and serious accidents per operation = 8 6.795 x 10 l Multiplying the figure above, by the percentage of postcrash I fires (Section 4.4), gives the final result, as listed below: 1.49 x 10# x 21.3% -8 3.17 x 10 i = This figure represents an estimate of the number of postcrash fires per operation that would be expected to occur in fatal and serious accidents within a 3 to 4 mile radius of an airport.

Commonwealth Edison Cotpany Zion Nuclocr Power Station Page 20 Aircraft Crash Firo D3tcction Systtm3 Annlypio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 5.0 Snecific Plant Tarcet Areas. 5.1 Introduction and Description of M M hodoloav. l In choosing the plant target areas, the type of aircraft which is postulated to be involved in the crash must be considered. Statistics presented previously have shown that WRA is used exclusively by general aviation aircraft. In addition, WRA operation statistics indicate that close to 90% of the airport operations are by single engine propeller type aircraft. This has been true of past operation figures, and it is expected to hold true for the future. Since the primary concern of this study is fire, fuel loading of the aircraft postulated to crash must also be taken into account. This evaluation will conservatively assume that the plane will be fully loaded with fuel at the time of impact. An average fully loaded single engine propeller plane has a fuel capacity of approximately 50 gallons of aviation quality gasoline. This capacity will be doubled to 100 gallons of fuel for the analysis of corporate / business jet aircraft. The damage area at the impact site can be divided into two components. The first and most serious threat to the vents is the direct contact of fuel or flames. The second threat is from heat or smoke entering the vents. The distance of fuel or flame spread can be estimated by determining the area that unignited fuel could spread over a surface. Data from the analysis of fuel spills indicate that in a fuel spill, each gallon of liquid will cover approximately 20 square ft. of level surface.UU Comparisons with data from the Fire Protection Handbook, using conservative calculations, confirm this figure.UI) Therefore, a 50 gallon spill would

Commonwealth Edison Company Zion Nuclear Powar Station Page 21 Aircraft Crash Fire Dotection Systema Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation cover 1000 square feet, or a circle of approximately 18 feet in radius. As a factor of safety, and to include radiant J heat effects, a circle of 20 foot radius has been chosen as k the affected area. This figure represents the worst case situation where a plane loses all of its fuel at the impact site, prior to ignition. Smoke and heat threats to the vents are also estimated conservatively. A smoke and heat zone around the 20 foot radius of flame and fume damage is also estimated at 20 feet. The total area of a 40 foot radius around the impact site is an estimate of both the flame and heat damaged areas, This distance is used to indicate the maximum distance at which a crash may occur and not cause fire, fumes, or smoke to enter the air intake vents. In some cases, the particular geometry of a vent may cause this distance to be modified. Sections 5.2 through 5.4 describe the particular target areas chosen for each intake vent area. Figure 2 shows these vent locations and target areas on a property develop-ment plan of the ZNPS. 5.2 Tarcet Area A - Diesel Generator and Switchaear Room Ventilation System Air Intakes Located at Elevation 592' on the Eest Side of the Diesel Generator Pooms (Unit 1 & 2). Figure 3 shows a sketch of the Unit #1 Diesel Generator Building. Shown in this sketch is the 20 foot radius flame and fuel area along with the 20 foot smoke and heat buffer zone. This area around the intake vents comprises 4 11,400 square feet, or 4.10 x 10 square miles. The target area for the Diesel Generator Building Ventilation Intakes for Unit #2 is approximately equal to the area target area for Unit #1.

-] Comm!n cSith EOican C mpray tien Nu31C0r.PROr CtStien PcgG 22 Aircraft CrOch Firs D3tOcticn Syctem3 AnSlyciD l Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 1 Auxiliary Builditic Ventilation 5.3 Tarcet Area-B System Intake. Located at Elevation 642' on the North Side of the Auxiliary Buildina. .j Figure 4 shows a sketch of the north wall of the Auxiliary Building; the 20 foot flame and fuel area is shown along with the smoke and heat buffer zone. 'This area com-prises 8,640 square feet, or 3.10 x 10 square miles. I 5.4 Tarcet Area C - Crib House Service Water Puno Area Ventilation System Intakes Located on the Crib House Roof at Elevation 616 '-6 The target area for the Crib House intake vents'is different from the other areas. The target area for the Crib House vent will be the entire roof along with the' ful and l spill radius.and smoke and heat buffer zone. This area is enlarged for the following reasons: (1) The three levels of j the Crib House Roof make fuel distribution easier and (2) The I Crib House air intake vents are not' obstructed by other plant structures making the number of approach angles to the vents much greater. The target area of 22,533 square feet, or 8.08 i x 10 square miles, is shown in Figure 5. The target areas will be doubled ~when used in the-probability calculations for corporate / business jet operations to reflect the increased fuel spill and possible damage area.

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Commonwealth Edicon Compcny Zion Nuclear Powar Station Aircraft Crash Firo Datection Systems Anclysis Pago 23 Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 1 6.0 Quantitative Evaluation with the earlier listed information complete, the following data can be summarized as follows: 1. Number of yearly operations per year at ERA (From Section 3) Category I - General Aviation Aircraft N = 100,027 (base year 1988) Category II - Business Jet Aircraft N= 6,036 (base year 1988) 2. Postcrash fire statistics for general aviation (From Section 4) C = 3.17 x 10'8 per operation 3. Target Areas (Section 5) Area A Diesel Generator Vents Ulit 1 and Unit 2.. 4.10 x 10 square mile Area B Auxiliar Vents.........y Building ........... 3.10 x 10 square mile Area C Crib House Roof Vents.................... 8. 08 x 10 square mile The above data can now be used as input to the previously derived equation (Section 1.0) of P = CNA. The g areas "A" in the equation are the target areas divided by the total area (3 to 4 mile radius) used in the derivation of the postcrash fire statistics. Using the equation for each of the target areas yields the following results:

1 y. C:mm:nw3nith Edicen C mprny Rica Nuclo r Pawcr-StOtica POgo 24 Aircraft CrGCh Firo D3tGstica Cyctem3 Annlyric Probabilistic Risk' Evaluation General. Aviation Aircraft: l Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 5.9 x.10'8 per year I Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents........... 4. 5 x 10~8' per year. Area C - Crib House Int?.ke' Vents......... 1.2 x 10'I per year. i Corporate-Jet Aircraft:- Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 7.1 x 10 per year j Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents........... 5. 4 x 10 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents......... 1.4 x 10.s per year These probabilities represent the risk associated with aircraft operations at WRA. These values.will be added to the probabilities developed for the risk associated with the Instrument Landing System holding pattern to obtain the I total probabilities. 6.1 Probability Risk Assessment of Runway 23 Instrument Landina System Holdina Pattern A review of current aircraft charts and conversa-tions with WRA tower officials indicate a holding pattern l associated with the Instrument Landing System (ILS) of runway 23. The edge of this holding pattern.is within 1/2 mile.of ZNPS, therefore this aircraft risk must be quantitatively identified. Actual records of flight traffic in this holding pattern are not kept by tower officials, but estimates of its use with multiple aircraft in this holding pattern are very I low. The SRP method recommends treating the holding pattern as an aircraft passage using the formula'as given in Section III.2.

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C mm3nwacith Edicen Compnny Bien NuslCOr P2 wor StOtien P go 25 AirarOft Croch Fira D3tOctica GyatOO3 AnSlyOiO Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Since'the actual number of operations per year in this holding pattern are not available, an ultra conservative approach is to treat all of the incoming aircraft to runway. 23 as using this holding pattern. Using this ' conservative approach yields only a slight increase in the overall aircraft crash risk to the ZNPS. Using the SRP formula of P C xN x A/w for = u airways, the following crash probabilities per year can be l developed: The number of operations per year "N" in the holding pattern (airway) will be obtained from the total operations per year value as developed in Section 3.0 and the estimate that 70% of the landings will be from the northeast.<20) In addition, the number of arriving and departing operations will be assur.ed to be the same. Therefore, the number of opera-tions per year for the above equation will be: Operations per Year General Corporate / Aviation Business Total Operations (Section 3.0) 100,027 6,036 Number of landings (50%)' 50,013 3,018 N = Landings from the northeast (70%' 35,009 2,113 on runway 23 assumed to used the. ILS holding pattern i The area "A" in the equation will be the previously defined target areas (Section 5). As outlined earlier, the l area for the corporate / business jet aircraft category will be doubled. i

Commonwealth Edison Corpany Zion Nucloar-Powcr Station Page 26 Aircraft Crash Firo Dotoction Systems Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation i The width of the airway "w," as defined in the S14P, will be 1 3/4 miles wide, as estimated from aircraft charts, plus 2 times the pattern. Therefore, the total value of "w" will be 2.15 miles. l l An approximate value of "C" for the equation can be f obtained by using the value of 4 x 10 crash rate per mile for commercial aircraft given in the SRP, and increasing it for the higher crash rates found in general aviation flying. This increase can be obtained by averaging the increases listed for the probability of a fatal ct wh per square mile per aircraft movement from Section III.3 of the SRP. The average increase in the aircraft fatal crash per square mile between U.S. Air Carrier and General. Aviation aircraft is approximately 5 tiracs as great. Therefore, the value for "C" in the above equation will be 2 x 10. Finally, this value "C" will be modified by multi-plying it by the post-crash fire statistic of 21.3% developed earlier (Section 4.4). Application of the above equation with these values yields the following post-crash fire risk associated with the holding pattern of the Instrument Landing System of Runway 23: General Aviation Aircraft: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 2.9 x 10 per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents.......... 2.2 x 10 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents......... 5.6 x 10 per year

t CI.mm nwCOlth Edictn CICp ny Zicn NuclCar Pow 2r Staticn Pcg3 27 AircrOft Cr ch Firo DCtosticn Byatcra An21yaic Probabilistic Risk Evaluation l Corporate Jet Aircraft: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 3.4 x 10'IU per year l Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents.......... 2. 6 x 10' per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents......... 6. 8 x 10O per year These numbers will be added to the earlier calcu-lated probabilities (Section 6.0) to obtain the total post-crash fire risk probability values. 6.2 Comoarison With Other Analvtical Models - Coroorate/ Business Jet Travel. The operation numbers and calculated probabilities presented earlier have been divided into two categories reflecting the different types of flying and the different expected rates of growth at WRA. In addition, conversations with tower officials and an analysis of the flight tracks reveal that these aircraft should be treated separately. Business / corporate jet traffic which is categorized by the Gulfstream G1/G2 and Lear jet varieties, is limited to the use of runway 5/23, the longest runway.(5"'8) This limits takeoffs and landings to the southwest and northeast. Since these. larges ai iraft have a larger turning radius, they typically will approach a runway at a direct heading from a further distance than will small general aviation aircraft. In addition, on landing, they will use an Instrument Landing t System (ILS), that will insure that they will be on a straight line approach to the runway at a distance of about 5 miles, at the Final Approach Fix Marker.(5) The location of this marker can be seen in Figure 1. For these reasons an additional calculation of the probability values will be performed using the model as

1 Cram:nwaclth Ediccn Crpany Eicn'NuslC0r P rCr 8tstien P2go 28 AircrOft crach-Firo D*.;tOctiC3 SyOtem3 Annlycio' Probabilistic Risk Evaluation t briefly outlined in the SRP. A-review of the source of the probability ' values given in the SRP reveal that they were calculated from crash statistics "within a 60-degree reference flight path symmetric about the extended centerline of ' the runway."dD Since landing jet. traffic at WRA would fall into this 60 degree angle from runway 5/23 on a straight line approach, the crash fire probabilities of - this' category of 3 flying will be additionally calculated, using the SRP crash numbers modified only by the inclusion of the postcrash fire. percentage derived in Section 4.4. The value of the probabil- ] ity number C will be taken from the U.S. Air Carrier category I at the 3 to 4 mile distance from the end of the runway. This choice is warranted since business and corporate _ flying has l a lower fatal accident rate as compared to general aviation ) i personal or training flying, typically by a factor of 5.* Using the total yearly number of corporate jet. air-craft operations developed' earlier, an estimate of the number of jet operations using runway 23 that would be near the ZNPS within the 60 degree area symmetric about the runway center-line can be calculated. Historical wind data, conversations with tower l officials, and reviews of the Part 150 Airport Noise Com-patibility Planr'..ng Study Part I indicate that approximately 70% of all take-off operations are to the southwest. W2O This is due to the fact that aircraft on takeoff will prefer-entially choose take-offs into the wind. Similarly, landing operations favor a tail wind, and 70% percent of these operations can be assumed to take place from the northeast. Additionally, the number of ta'ke-offs and landings at an airport can be assumed to be equal.

Commonwealth Edison Company Zion Nuclear Powar Station Page 29 Aircraft Crash Fire Datection Systems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Using these arguments, the number of corporate / business jet aircraft that would be arriving from or departing to the northeast (runway 5/23) near the vicinity of the ZNPS can be developed: Number of corporate / business jet operations per year (Section 3.0) N = 6,036 operations per year Number of take-offs = N/2 30% to the northeast 3,018 905 Number of arrivals = N/2 70% from the northea:;t 3,018 2,113 1 Total 3,018 business jet operations per year using runway 5/23 to/from-the northeast. Using the above operations numbers for runway 5/23 to the northeast, (3,018) the Air Carrier Probability of a Fatal Crash per square mile per Aircraft Movement from the SRP model (.68 x 10'8 at a 3 to 4 mile distance), and twice the target areas developed earlier, the following probabilities can be developed: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents..... 1.7 x 10"8 per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents............ 1.3 x 10'8 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents......... 3.3 x 10~8 per year

Commonwealth Edison Ccapany Zion Nucioar Power Station Page 30 Aircraft Crach firo D3tection SystCES An317 dig Probabilistic Risk Evaluation l The probabilities listed above are well below the I threshold value of 1.0 x 10'7 per year that is listed in the SRP documents. A direct comparison with the formula developed ) in this study is not applicable unless the differences between the two methods is addressed. l The model developed in this report includes both fatal and serious accidents, since both categories of acci-dents can cause postcrash fires. In addition, the postcrash fire percentage is included. An approximate comparison can be made if the post crash fire static is applied to the SRP formula. Applying the 21.3% postcrash fire statistic to the SRP formula yields the following probabilities: Area A - Diesel Generator Bldg. Vents.... 3.6 x 10 per year Area B - Auxiliary Bldg. Vents............ 2.7 x 104 per year Area C - Crib House Intake Vents.......... 7.1 x 10 per year These probabilities are in close agreement to the values calculated earlier in this report (Section 6.0). 6.3 Actual Waukeaan Reaional Airoort Accident History. Appendix 6 includes briefs of all of the accidents that occurred near WRA from 1964 through 1987. Table 6 shows a summary of these data. For this period, only five fatal and serious accidents had occurred. Of these five accidents, only 1 accident had occurred within the 3 to 4 mile radius of WRA. This accident rate at WRA can be used to compare the actual accident history at WRA to the model developed in this report. The total number of operations at WRA for the years 1964 through 1987 can be estimated by using the base year operations per year number for 1988 and an operation per year estimate for 1964. A value of 36,000 operations per year for

C:mm3nw0cith ET.licen C:cpany Bica Nu3100r P wor Ctstien Pcg3 31 AircrOf t Croch Firo D3t0cticn SyOtt:13' An21yaiD Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 1964 will be used.<24 By assuraing annualized - growth between these two figures, the total number of operations can be estimated as 1,521,446. The one accident in the 3-to 4 mile ) radius divided by the total number of' operations during this period yields and accident rate per operation for this area of 6.57 x 10~I This compares closely with the accident rate per operation value of 1.49 x 10'7 as calculated in Section 4.5. Although the accident rate is low, this comparison does reveal that the analytical inodel as developed does predict an accident rate of the same order of magnitude as actual accident history. I i l l i i

{ C2mm:nw;Olth Ediccn C;mp:ny 2103 NuS1CCr P!wCr StCtien P2ga 32 Airarnft Crach Fira DetCstiCn Cyatem3 An21ycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Table 6 Summary of Aircraft Accidents at Waukegan Regional Airport i 1964 through 1937 Location Aircraft Type of Accident Postcrash (relative ) Date Damaae Fatal Serious Minor Fire to WRA) 09/27/64 Substantial X 02/21/65 Substantial X 03/22/65 Substantial X J2/01/66 Destroyed X on runway i 03/11/66 Substantial X 07/15/66 Substantial X l 10/10/66 Substantial X 11/28/67 Substantial X 09/08/67 Substantial X 12/31/67 Substantial X 05/12/68 Substantial X 10/26/68 Destroyed X near runway 01/25/69 Substantial X 03/05/69 Substantial X 04/07/70 Substantial X 08/12/70 Destroyed X Yes on runway 06/03/71 Substantial X 09/13/71 Substantial X 03/16/72 Substantial X 1/3 mile 05/03/74 Substantial X 08/17/74 Substantial X 09/25/74 Substantial X 09/11/76 Substantial X 11/11/78 Substantial X 12/16/78 Destroyed X Yes on airport 01/19/79 Substantial X 01/16/80 Destroyed X Yes 3.5 miles 05/27/80 Substantial X 07/16/80 Substantial X 09/16/80 Substantial X 01/02/81 Substantial X 04/05/82 Minor X 03/14/83 Substantial X l 06/12/83 Substantial X 01/14/84 Substantial X l 11/23/84 Substantial X 05/12/86 Substantial X 06/20/87 substant121 X TOTAL 2 3 33 3

l 1 i c mm:nrocith T2Ciccn c mp."'y ZiC3 NuSICCr Powcr CtstiCn Pzg3 33 AirarOft Crach Fira DStCGtica Syatem] An21y2ia Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I 7.0 Qualitative Evaluation The following evaluations are very important for an understanding of the probability of a postcrash fire affecting j the air inte... vents, but they cannot be put into quantitative j l terms. 1 7.1 Increased Aircraft Operation Numbers Due to Trainina j Exercises (Touch and Go Ooerations). l As outlined in Section 3.1, the local traffic at WRA is approximately 50% of the total operations. Much of this traffic is made up of general aviation single engine training operations. These training operations concentrate on landings i and take-offs usually in succession, and are called touch and l go's. These operations are counted twice in the operation numbers, once for a take-off and once for a landing. l Airport flight track studies performed for the Part 150 Airport Noise Compatibility Study showed that these training flights tend to stay very near the airport (within 1 mile) making tight turns to practice as often as possible since students want to maximize training during a limited amount of time.<2n Flight tracks of these operations made I from in-field studies show the concentration of these flights near the airport. This is clearly shown on Figure 1 in Appendix 4. These flight tracks reveal that many of the local operations do not travel away from the airport to the vicinity of ZNPS. The actual number of operations that come near, or pass the 3 mile distance to ZNPS would be only a small parcentage of the operations labeled as local.

Ccamonv0cith Edicon Ccrpeny Zion Nuciocr Paw 0r Station Page 34 Aircrat; Crash Firo D3tection SyotcO3 Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evgluation 7.L 'fI:sffic Flicht Tracks - Richt. and Left Hand ' Traffic Patterns. Flight tracks were also productd for arrivals and departures for WRA for the Part 150 Airpmt Noise compatibi-lity Study. These flight tracks are show1 in Figure 2 & 3 in Appendix 4. These flight tracks represant the majority of flights and are based on 1986 observations.* Figure 2 in Appendix 4 shows./ the directions that most of the aircraft are recommended t take upon departure, unless a strong directional preferen e or Wind conditions override these directions. The two fJ ght tracks labeled J1 represent the tighter turningf radius and J2 of the smaller general aviation aircraft, and the flight tracks labeled G1 and G2 show the wider turning radius of the larger Gulfstream G1/G2 jets. This preferred routing tends to move the aircraft away from more populated areas such as the city of Zion and, consequently, away from ZNPS. Figure 3 in Appendix 4 shows the flight tracks used for arrivals. This figure shows that all of the runways are left hand traffic patterns. This refers to the direction an arriving aircraft will turn to approach the runway. Since this report has been finished, runway 23 has been changed to a right hand traffic pattern. Conversations with tower personnel indicate that aircraft are indeed following this traffic pattern.m These traffic flight patterns indicate preferred directions are being followed and that there is a tendency for directing aircraft activity in an orderly fashion. This directing activity will also be increased since the tower commenced operation on October 1, 1988. Personnel communi-I cations and a visit to the control tower verified that tower

C:mm:nwcalth Edicen Comp ny Rica Nu31COr P;w r CtOticn Pcg3 35 Aircraft Crtch Firo Detor;tica Cyatem3 AnOlyCiG Probabilistic Risk Evaluation controllers are requesting departing and arriving' traffic to follow traffic patterns. Specifically, on runway 23, traffic is recommended to turn right.or left after take-off.* These procedures and traffic patterns tend' to direct the majority of the aircraft traffic away from ZNPSe As outlined earlier in Section 1.2, cdrrent traffic - f patterns are also due to the proximity of the O' Hare Terminal 1 Area Control to the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Terminal control Area. Aircraft departing WRA will choose to stay in the O' Hare Terminal Area Control, unless their intended destination is north. This proximity additionally causes the majority of traffic departing WRA to turn soon after take-off. The end result is that the majority of air traffic tends not.to stay on a straight line course after take-off and therefore does not come into ZNPS airspace. 7.3 Physical olant desian and trajectories. The physical design of the intake vents along with their placement serve to reduce the postcrash probability. Three of the four areas are blocked from many approach angles by either the containment buildings or other structures. Ledges, grading, and roof lips of at least 6" are permanent parts. of the building design and would serve to route fuel away from the vent openings. Photograph 1 in Appendix 5 is an overall view of ZNPS looking Southwest. The ventilation target areas are labeled. Photograph 2 shows Area A of Unit 1 air intakes taken from ground level. Area A of the Unit 2 diesel genera-tor intakes is similar to this area. The approach trajec-tories to these intake vents would be only from the southwest,

C mm:nwCalth EfiCCn C;:: pry Zicn Nu]lC2r PrCr StOticn P2g3 36 Aircraf t CrCCh Fira Det03 tic 3 Cy;tcCD Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation thereby limiting an air crash from WRA to a departure. An aircraft on arrival to WRA runway 23 would, first, be 3/4 of a mile off of a straight line approach to the runway and,

secondly, if approaching ZNPS, the target area would be protected by the turbine building and auxiliary building.

f This shielding effect of the building from an arrival to WRA serves to halve the listed probability of a plane hitting the j diesel intake vents, since a good estimate is that the number of arrivals and departures is roughly equal. The crash ) probabilities would be additionally lowered for these intake vents since, as was shown in Section 7.2, that departing. i aircraft are requested to make quick turns after take-off. Photograph 5 shows Area B, the auxiliary building ventilation intake located on the north side of the Auxiliary building. A similar argument can also be made that due to the fact ". hat the target area taces Northeast, the approaching plane would have to be from an arrival rather than a departure i from WRA. Again, assuming an equal number of arrivals and departures, limiting the crash probability to only an aircraft on arrival to WRA would serve to reduce the crash probability by one half. Photograph 4 shows Area C, the crib house service water pump area ventilation intakes, looking North. The clearest approach trajectory to this area would be from ar. arriving aircraft intending to use runway 23 fer a landing. As indicated above and in Section 7.4 below, an aircraft would be 3/4 of a mile off of a straight line course to the runway. A crash approach from a departing aircraft that continued relatively straight after take-off (rather than turning as usual) would be obstructed from hitting the crib house service water pump ventilation intakes by Unit 1 and Unit 2 contain-ment, in addition to being obstructed by the turbine building.

C:mm:n;031th EdiCrin C pony Bicn NuDlOOr PZ Or StOtien Pago 37 Airaraft CrOGh Fir 3-DOtOsticn SyOtC23 An21ycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation l Limiting the crash probability to an arriving aircraft to WRA l would also serve to halve the listed crash probability. 7.4 Instrument Landina ADoroaches to Runway 23. Instrument landings can be made at WRA on runway 23 l using the ILS (Instrument Landing System)'. These instrument landings would be used mainly by the larger aircraft, such as the corporate / business. jets. The use of this system t. ends to keep the aircraft away from ZNPS. Aircraft that will utilize the ILS system will be homing in on the signal generated-by radio beacons located on a straight line from the runway. There are two beacons located along the runway heading of-230 degrees (230 degrees magnetic North, 229 degrees instrument heading) at approximat-ely 1 and 4 miles from the end of the runway. The farthest beacon is called the Final Approach Fix Marker. This beacon is located on the south side - of 17th Street, approximately 1000 feet from the beach and 11/4 miles north of ZNPS. Aircraft intending to make an instrument landing using ILS must be on a final approach and on a straight line course at this point. The aircraft would not be turning in for this approach in any other way. On this flight heading, the closest approach to ZNPS would be approx-imately 3/4 miles. This approach and the location of the Final Approacn Fix Marker can be seen on Figure 1. 7.5 Development of the Postcrash Fire Statistics. Additional conservatism is built into the analytical model by the inclusion of serious aircraft accidents. Whereas the SRP model only includes fatal accidents, the model presented here includes both fatal and serious accidents since both categories of accidents can cause postcrash fires. ~ .aA

Comm3nUOSith Edicen CImp my siOn NuclCOr P;;Cer StatiCn POg3 38 AirsrOft Crech.Fito D tOstica Cy3tCm AnOlycio Probabilistic Rist Evaluation The data used to create the postcrash fire statis-tics involved general' aviation accidents throughout the United States including Alaska and Hawaii. It is known that dif-ferent regions have different accident rates. In general, midwest flying is typically safer than that of other regions due to the lack of mountainous terrain and adverse weather patterns. Accident data obtained from the U.S. Department of Transportation ecnfirm this view.(25) These data are shown in Table 7 below: l l 1 l 4

I l Camarnwc31th ESiccn CI: pony Bica N3310Cr PowOr Otaticn P2g3 39 ] AirarOft Crtch Fira Det0cticn SyctCO3 An31ycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation i l I i l Table 7 j i Regional Differences in General Aviation Accident Rates ] Averaged for-the years 1980-1986 Data sorted by Best to Worst Reaion on Total Accident' Rate Total Fatal Accidents Accidents (per 100,000 flight hours) Eastern Region 8.04 1.46 Great Lakes Region 8.18 1.25 l Southern Region 8.39 1.64-Southwest Region. 8.51 1.53 Western Pacific 8.98 1.97 New England Region 9.49 1.49 Central Region 10.74 1.54 Northwest Mountai7 Region 12.76 2.60 Alaska Region 22.70 2.75 Table 7 Regional Differences in General. Aviation Accident Rates Averaged for the years 1980-1986 Data sorted by Best to Worst Reaion on Fatal Accident Rate i Total Fatal' Accidents Accidents I (per 100,000 flight hours) f Great Lakes Region 8.18 1.25 Eastern Region 8.04 1.46 New England Region 9.49 1.49 Southwest Region 8.51 1.53 Central Region 10.74 1.54 I Southern Region 8.39 1.64 I Western Pacific 8.98 1.97 Northwest Mountain Region 12.76 2.60 1 Alaska Region 22.70 2.75 I -l 1 1

Cram 3nwO31th E31cCn CompaSy Ricn Nu21C2r P "CCr CtOtiGn Pago 40 Aircraft CrcCh Fira DetOcticn Cyctem] Annlycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation As can be seen from Table 7, Great Lakes flying tends to have a lower accident rate than other regions. Therefore, since midwest flying tends to have'a lower accident rate, crash statistics created from a database compiled of all regions will tend to overestimate the accident rate for midwest flying. I 7.6 Fuel Loadina and Fuel Snill ArgpE., There are several features in the analytical model which tend to introduce additional safety f actors into the calculated probabilities. The first ftotor c2 safety involves the postulated aircraft i.7volved in the a::cident. An assump-tion was made that the plane was fully loaded with fuel. Operation numbers from WRJ. show that the number of take-offs and landings are approximately equal. It would be expected-that landing aircraft from ltinerant operations would have less than a full tank of fuel. A safety factor is also included in the model by the large (20 ft. radius) area of flame or fume damage assumed around the aircraft impact site. This area represents the worst case of the fuel tank leaking 11 of its contents with sufficient time for the fuel to spread, before ignition. Case histories of postcrash fires indicate that ignition upon impact is extremely rapid.<z2) This implies that in most cases the fuel does not spread far from the impact area. The fuel spread and damage area for corporate /busi-ness jet traffic was also estimated conservatively. The target areas used were twice the areas of the general aviation aircraft. This increase more than accounts for twice the amount of fuel and a much larger possible damage area. A

C:mm:nw Olth Edicen CO2p2ny Zicn NuSlCCr PowOr StOticn PCgo 41 AircrOft Cr00h Firo D3tccticn Syct020 Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I I 8.0 Future General Aviation Activity at WRA. 8.1 Increase in Traffic Activity at WRA Throuch the Year 2000 and Its Effects on the Postcrash Fire Probabilities. Actual FAA Terminal Area Forecasts for Illinois predict an average annual growth rate of 2% for general aviation operations for the years 1988 through 2000.(23) I Specific FAA forecasts for WRA predict a slightly higher rate of general aviation growth. Current predictions see WRA general aviation operations growing at an average annualized rate of 4.8% per year for the years 1988 through 2005.(24) Given the current operations numbers of WRA of 106,063, it would take approximately 15 years for the number of operations to double. At that time (year 2003) assuming similar crash l statistics, the general aviation crash probabilities would also double. I Corporate / business jet operations are expected to grow at a faster rate due to the lengthened runway, control tower, Instrument Landing System, and other improvements. These. improvements will make the use of the airport for corporate / business jet traffic more attractive. The Part 150 Airport Noise Compatibility Study predicts jet traffic to more l than double by the year 1991.00) After this brief period of high growth, corporate / business jet operations should be I expected to fall off and increase with the general rate of the airport. Using these assumptions, corporate / business jet crash probabilities would be approximately 6 times greater in the year 2008. l I lI l

Commonwealth Edicon Company Zion Nucionr Powar Station Page 42 Aircraft Crcoh Firo Datoction Syste3s An21ysio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation 8.2 Future Developments At WRA. The Airport Layout Plan Report currently in effect for WRA proposes the lengthening of runway 5/23 to 8000 feet total. This action would require the relocation of Green Bay Road. Conversations with airport officials and individuals involved with the new Airport Layout Plan indicate that the lengthening of the runway is not a high probability. Airport officials have even gone on record stating that this improve-ment will not be pursued. Green Bay Road is currently a two lane highway at this point. The Illinois Department of Transportation has plans-to turn this stretch of highway into a four lane highway. If this action is completed, it would l be even more unlikely that the runway expansion would be completed. The new Airport Layout Plan Report that is being developed does have provisions for a trainer runway to be built parallel to runway 5/23. This shorter runway would be used for small general aviation aircraft exclusively, and also for the frequent training and touch and go operations. If approved, preliminary estimates are that this parallel trainer runway could be in place by early 1994. This airport improve-ment will create a safer airport by separating local and itinerant traffic, and training aircraft operations. Cur-rently training is being performed on the same runway that is also handling the operations of the larger corporate jet aircraft. Although this airport improvement is likely to increase total aircraft operations, it will increase this number by increasing local, touch and go, and trainer opera-tions, not itinerant operations. It is these local training operations, as shown in Section 7.1, that tend not to venture near the airspace around ZNPS.

r-I Cram:nwOcith Edic:n Crmp2ny Zicn Nu21C2r P Tr StOticn PCg3 43 AircrOft Crcsh Firo DOtOcticn Cyct:30 Analycio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation REFERENCES l 1. FAA Terminal Area Forecast FY 1988 throutrh 2000, April 1988 FAA-APO-88-3 U.S. Department of Transportation. Chicago Sectional Aeronautical

Chart, 35th 2.

NOAA edition, October 22, 1987. 3. Jeppesen Low Altitude Enroute Charts - Chart Number 21, Effective date: March 15, 1984. 4. Part 150 - Airport Noise Compatibility Planning Part I Report Noise Exposure Maps - Waukegan Regional Airport. Revised October 1988. Performed by:fWilliam J._Murray & Associates, Inc. Springfield, Illin'ais. 5. Personal communication with John Gulig, Tower Chief, I and Al Huisman, Act_ng Airport Manager, Waukegan Regional. Airport on 12/07/88. 6. Annual Review of Aircraft Accident _f;ata - U.S. General Aviation Calendar Year 1981. Naticnal Transportation Safety Board. Report Number NTSB/ARG-84/02. Government Publication Number PB84-230960. Figure 1,2 & 3, pages I 5 through 7. 7. Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data - U.S. General I Aviation Calendar Year 1986. National Transportation Safety Board. Report Number NTSB/ARG-88/01. Government Publication Number PB89-121453. Page 5 through 9. 8. Illinois Departme#. of Transportation, Division of. Aeronautics. In-Field Traffic count of Waukegan Regional Airport completed in May 1985. 9. Waukegan Regional Airport - Daily Airport Traffic Record, FAA Form 7230-1, for the months of October and November 1988, obtained frcm airport officials. (See Appendix 1.) 10. Reference 2, Table 7, page 40. 11. Pal-Waukee Airport - Daily Airport Traffic Record, FAA Form 7230- 1, for January through December 1988, obtained from airport officials. I Calendar Year l 12. FAA Statistical Handbook of 'viation 1981. Federal Aviation Administration. Government i Publication Number PB83-140509. Page 168. 1 i i I l o

C:mm3nwOSlth EdiC:n Crzptny Sicn Nu3102r 17WCr Station POgo 44 AircrOft CrOch Fira DetCGtien SyOtems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I REFERENCES (cont'd.) 13. FAA Terminal Area Forecast FY 1985 throuch 1995, Table

12. U.S. Department of Transportation. (See Appendix 2.)

14. Personal communications with Ed Graves in June, 1965, I Manager of Technical Analysis Branch, Safety Analysis Division, FAA, Office of Aviation Safety. 15. Requested Database Search performed by: Carol Floyd, I Aviation Accident Data

Office, Safety Studies and Analysis Division, Bureau of Safety programs, National Transportation Safety Board. Requested search on June 25, 1985 and December 3, 1988. (See Appendix 3.)

i 16. Industrial Fire Hazards Handbook, 2nd ed., p. 770. 17. Fire Protection

Handbook, 15th ed.,

National Fire Protection Association, p. 4-33. 18. Part 150 - Airport Noise Compatibility Planning Part II Report Noise Compatibility Program - Waukegan Regional Airport. Revised October 1988. Performed by: William J. Murray & Assoc' tes, Inc. Springfield, Illinois, pages 35-36. 19. D.G.

Eisenhut, "neactor Siting in the Vicinity of Airfields." Paper presented at the American Nuclear Society Annual Meeting, June 1973.

20. Reference 16, page 49. 21. Reference 2, page 42./ 22. " General Aviation Accidents: Postcrash Fires and How to Prevent or Control i sm," National Transportation Safety Board Special Study, Publication Number: PB81-102071, I page 8. 23. Reference 1, Table 35. (See Appendix 2.) 24. FAA Terminal Area Fo. recast FY 1989 throuch 2000 U. S. Department of Transportation. Waukegan Regional Airport l (See Appendix 2) - Preliminary Data. 25. Data obtained from Sarah Hodges-Austin, FAA Statistics

officer, U.S. Department of Transportation.

Washington D.C. - Draft Report Data. 26. Reference 2, page 38.

Ccamonw3alth Edioen Corpeny Zicn Nuclocr Pewar Station Pega 45 Aircrnft CrG3h Firo D3tection Cyatsac Analysio Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I i I l I APPENDIX 1 l I, i FAA Airport Master Record (Form 5010-1) l Waukegan Regional Airport (12 months ending November 30, 1986) Daily Airport Traffic Record October 1988 1 November 1988 I I I I I

efu/a - -.. ~. . "LUNTY! Li " "!!T Af#t "MTl CPIC&G. ICRVICES e13EG A28: Raft 1 9.9 r *.2015 : O. P. ; C >TE FutL: het 80 GAS A 9e SINGLC CNG: 1st ?!? : WNf** baUhtcaA ro.Y !!!?R!CT >T1 a!RrkaML RPRS: MAJOR 91 MULT! CNG: 51 _ fl; 3 ;,a t C +% : rr 30s s?* 172 PWA PLANT # PRS! MAJOR

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11 WabwfSg4 Iw 6r619 >T3 POTTLC OrTGIN: HIGH TOTAL 259 >11 FMCur Np;.3 t a.p a s.3 3 33 374 BULK 0xTsFN; )la

ar. A C f 8 ; Fafeggy entAA 75 TSNT STORAGE: T!C MGR 93 MELICOPTERSS 2

1 s!! Arcat*S: P C act tre 76 OTHER SERVICts: CMTR 94 GL10t Rt t WaV8E0aN (L f 88 78 RNTL SALCS INSTR 95 MILITART! >l6 Ph0kr Ns 312-?**-Ast5 -96 ULTR&= LIGHT: >l'.;7tNCitCT Sch!DLLE: Post >$ car $ >cLRS aLL ALL ALL FACILITIr3 OptRATIONS >P8 APPT ECN! CG iff AIR C ARRIER!- 18 AIRP)RT U2E: PueLIC 301 APT LGT SKCD:s0USK. DAWN IFl COMMUTER: 19 A R* T La f: e?-2t*1TN 05ffPATCD SP2 UNICOR *123 8pf 172 AIR Tatt: 1204 20 ARPI Lon6: 887-57-PfW >83 WINO INDICATORI Yt3 I F 3 G A L OC AL t. 74339 is aRPT*! LEV! Pff27 [$TIFAft0 84 SCGPENTED CIRCLt: NONC 194 GA ITNRNT 54796 T2 ACRC0Gts 47s PS CONTROL TWRt NO 2P5 MILITARY: 18R >23 LIGMT TRAFFIC: ND 86 FSS: MANKAKEE TOTAL 3 !?f439 >2e NON.C CMM L aNDING FCC: TCS 87 FSS Oh ARPT TES ?S N ASP /FC CERaL aGRf tMINT: NCT 88 FSS PHONE NR$ 815-935-5871 DPER ATIONS FOR 12 26 F AR !!9 !NOCx; W ' R9 TOLL FRtt NR 1*800-322-5552 MOS (NOINE 3040V86 RUNWAY Data >30 RUNWAY ]QENT 95/23 14/32 >31 Lfh6TPt ef89 37*R >32 WIOTMt tas TS >33 $URF TYPE.COND CONC-G CONC *G >34 SURF TrtATPENT ?S GROSS WT2 SW 98 16 c 36 (IN ?>$r$8 CW 328 23 37 PTW 2re 38 00TW LIGHTING /aPCM A!C$ ta/23 14/32 >*f ECGC INT [NSTTT HlCH

to at HOW CLEMENT 81

>42 R WT mea u TYPE.COND NPl=$ thPl=$ 8tC=F /t!C.F / / / re3 VASI V4L /V4L V4L /N / / / 44 TNR CRPS$1NG MGT ST /38 35 / / / / 85 VISUAL sL10C aNCLE 3.es /3 75 3 5F / / / / ..>e6 CNT8Lk.TD F P=N t h =N nan / N -N / / / >at RVR.RVV N.N /h.N nan /N.N / / / >48 RCIL T / N /N / / / >49 APCP LIGHTS / / / / / C#$fRLffl0N CATA pg/a3 14/32 58 F AR YT CA TEGORT 86 V) /C 8 t V) /PtV) / / / >91 DISPL AC ED THR / $80 / / / / $52 CTLG CE STN TREE / RCAD /TPCC / / / >$3 OBSTN maRut0/LGTC / / / / / >54 NGT or0VC PWY Ct!D 39 / 15 /38 / / / >*5 DIST FR OM RWT LND Ef8 / 285 /1258 / / / >56 CNTRL A CFFSCT Sf6L / 125R /ASL / / / 57 CBSTN CLNC TLCPC If:1 /5f 1 ef 1 /3?:1 / / / E0 CLC1talN OftTN N /N N /N / / / 2t:1 L89CIkG LEPOTH st/23 1a/32 80 LANCING #WT=LCNGTM / / / / / 61 CTLC CP ST ACLT / / / / / A2 MGT.at0 VC THR / / / / / 63 DIST 8FCr Two / / / / / 64 CNTRL4 0FFSET / / / / / (33 ARPT FG8 PLEAst A0v]%C FSS IN (TEM 86 WMEN CHANGES OCCUR TO TTEMS PRECC0rD ST t >lIF N L r A & R 1. sPST Rut se Arte RATIC 2P:1 AT CSPLCD THR TO TREES. n'88 aCTVT MIRL */23 ' Cit 5 5 #!PL 1*/32 - 123 5. m*p2 F *t G 1*2 8m AVSL ON sto, n11s -Fi CfN: P!4ATORT t!ROS Ch A IN VtNTY cr APPT. nate.F2

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Users. Alf ATCTs AIRPORT TRAFFIC RECORD Last ORIGINAL of this form 1) Washington Office AMS-420 thru Regional Air Traffic Division Facehty Name Location I t 't4 4 k i6-'W 14 W T w44gf&4& y I%YO U ll C hl $ UlGlL1 1l t. f k 50-1) Facility Type ("X" one) (12) -(3-4) (5 9) I Mo. Yr. Location ident. FaciM (11) Approach O B Radar l O E.VFR Tower Type if daily hours l*S 10ths Control O C. Limited Radar l E G. Contract Tower Changed of operadon Towers O D. Non-Radar l have changet ],,o,__ l l (Continue on Reverse) (121O Yes enter new

- ( Alsosubmit F AA Form 7230 26) hours.

(7T-18) (79) Airport Operations Count ITINERAN_T , LOCAL Ac At GA us vois c=w unhia.y toies (i f-21) 122 26) (27 31) (32 36) llinerant 137 41) 142 86) LOCSI 1 _.c A 3~ o E'1 35 c 38 75 laf 2 _o c l16 0 l'16 M3_ o '933 NOT 3 e o A Al o RR/ AEA o

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L (Also submit FAA Form 7230 261 hours. (77 78) (79) Airport Operations Count ITINERANT LOCAL AC AT GA Mt T otei Cwst Military total 61 (17 21) (21-J8) ITI-31) (32 36) itmerant 437 41) (42 46) Local 1 /tf /tf 133 23S bro 3 2 194 /34 /93 193 FI'l 3 A /5') 4 /63 .t.t 8 22S' 3?/ Al Al At 5 15 IS /8 IA" /S~ ts' 7 A /Vi /Y1 X/F A/F J64' a j yS> fyg ggg agg yfo 9 lot /o/ AoT Ao? 3l0 'O A 94 1 SS E4 A . 66 l 'l4 4 1/6 A/9 X.?3 AT3 flA 12 J3 d5 39 '3 i

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commonwoolth EdiCCn CCSpray Eicn Nucicar Pow 0r $taticn POgoJ46-Aircraft Crash Fire Detection Systems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation l l l l APPENDIX 2 Total General Aviation Operations (National Summary by Region, 1976 - 1995) Total General-Aviation Operations (Great Lakes Summary by State, 1982 - 2000) Waukegan Regional Airport Total Operations Forecast, 1988-2005

e s L_ A. 94362117 16 05922 u 14582 O~ T 1637191e 58 59482 30112111 12 60483 T 11111111 22334 k$55 11 11111 6 Il111 g _ NC _ RI ,EF 71636648 87 .TI 3.e748 74186 .SC 79011087 89 01123 34556 _EA 11222211 11 22222 22222 _!P T __ S E. H. 62754259 87. 42974 08530 H __ T 23456777 78 98112 33456 U 11111111 11 12222 22222 O S N-R E 39218286 34 19752 96420 _ H T 66898977 89 08123 34567 . U 11111111 11 22222 22222 O - S-5 N1 9 S9 T N __. [ O-I6 _SI T7 _EA S 40722025 73 72727 38283 A9 _ HT _ i R1 _ lN ro 31122211 12 23344 55667 f E _ iU-l 11111111 P, __ RO-L 11 11111 11111 ON . N _- I . OM-L O LI _. M ~_. AG 2 TE N 1 OR D I T N 67891929 24 67912 3 4 5 7' E Y _HA-S 8 l HB _EL N 44445444 55 55566 66666 h b D _hG O A IY _ N I T TR E T AA A IM R VM E AU P S O L _TS_ AL AE L RA EK A 63858882 87 39527 38496 EN RA T N0 .GL E1 O 98911888 89 99122 53455 GT T 12222211 11 22222 22222 A N M - R E 15169162 62 85159 27159 T S 33445545 56 67888 99988 A 11111111 11 11.111 11222 E-L A R 91688658 14 78269 14703 T N-56667776 77 78888 99900 E-C- 11 A.- K. 65867877 89 89123 44567 S A 11111111 11 22222 22222 L_ A- = L AC T S _L 8 A AR-067899123 C45 67899 12345 _CA-T77778888 E88 88889 99999 SE S99999999 R99 99999 99999 _IY l11111111 D11 11111 11111 r t r i l L i

C 1 11111 1111 S I W. A. .HT. 54951 85295 17306 2851 .TO. 35454 56778 99011 2234 .UK. 11111 11111 11222 2222 .OA. .SD. 0 O 56841 62202 45791 2457 0 I 91369 06047 03693 6925 0 H 2 O. 2,3 3,3,3, 5,5,6,6,6, 7,7,178, 6,8,9,9, 2 11111 11111 11111 1111 7 8 8 S9 S 9 N1 D 1 O . N I, . A . R TE S E AT U B RA A O . M ET HT H 11188 48864 21974 3197 E PS .TO T 99012 23456 78890 1223 . T O .RK 33444 44444 44445 5555 P 5 Y .OA N E 3 TB .ND. I S F-E AY S F L RR . N O B CA . O A RM I S T IM T . A AU A. A T R S S S L O E 76120 42338 38383 8383 . R AS P 22607 14589 12457 8013 . E TE E. O 78899 0,0,0 0,0, 1,1111 1 2,2,2, W OK N. L 11111 11111 1111 . TO TA N. A 1 I M.. T F T. O O A . T E R R N E C B A . M C 87099 61099 51731 0976 . U I. 02470 85283 83727 2616 . N H. 5 6,7 8,0, 0,1 2,2,3, 3,6,4,5,5, 6,6,7 7, C . E I 11112 22222 22222 2222 . H M ~ . T . N . O D E A. S N 47101 19513 45655 5566 . A A. 84356 49311 47036 9258 B I 66777 D.

88990, 0,0,1 1 1 12,2,2, S

N. . O 1 11111 1111 N I I . T . A . R E P S. . O I s 72681 25386 42005 1741 O. 47717 77407 41851 8418 . L N._ 234,66 7 8 9,0,0, 1 2,2 3 4, 4,5 6 6, . A I T L. 22222 22233 33333 3333 . O L . T I . D L E A . T C T S I S . A .L R A C AR. O23456 C78901 23456 7890 E .CA. T88888 E88899 99999 9990 R .SE S99999 R99999 99999 9990 . O .IY. I11111 O11111 11111 1112 F .F H F l!

] [ l ? i j i RE6!!N 5 TATE: AGL-!L LOCID: U6N N0aV0WERED CITY: sAUkESAN AIRPCRT: WAurESAN REs:0NAL BASED AIRCRAFT: :s1 <-{NP' ANEMENTS t0001-~) (----- ~~---- A IR F AF' QPER AT IONS ( 000 )---~~--------) (............!TINERANT------------) 6-----. CAL-----) INST. ] AIA AIR AIR AT + TCIAL QPS. ,J 1 EAR AH. TAI! ::PM. TOTAL lARR, CCM. 3A RIL 'GTAL 3A M!. ICIAL OPS. 900) ACTUAL 1976 1 28 2 31 9: 2 '4 1:5 1977 0 0 33 2 !4 92 2 94 1:0 19 3 2 ~8 2 41 1:1-l 1:3 165 197' 2 2 43 2 46 117 2 119 165 1930 2 2 47 2 51 153 155 lM 1991 ) 0 2 52 2 56 153 2 155 211 196: 0 0 2 57 2 61 153 2 155 216 j 1993 '0 0 2 62 2 66 76 2 78 144 ] 19!4 0 0 2 67 2 71 159 2 161 231 4 f 1995 0 0 1 72 0 73 72 72 145 1996 0 0 1 77 0 78 52 52 130 1997 0 0 L $5 0 56 74 74 130 1 FCRECAST ] 1998 -) 0 1 59 0 60-00 80 141 1989 0 0 1 63 0 65 86 86 151' iM0 0 0 1 68 0 69 92 92 161 1991 0 0 1 72 0 14 98 98 171 1992 0 0 1 76 0 W 103. 103 191 1993 0 0 1 81 0 82 - 109 1H 191 1994 0 0 1 85 0 87 115 115 202 !?95 0 0 2 89 0 91 121 .121 212 1996 0 0 2 94 0 95 127 127 222 l 1997 0 0 2 98 0 100 133 133 232 i 1998 0 0 2 102 0 104 138 138 242 1999 0 0 2 107 0 108 - 144 144 253 2000 0 0 2 111 0 113 150 150 263 2001 0 0 2 115 0 117 154 156 273 2002 0 0 2 120 0 121 162 162 283 l 2003 0 0 2 124 0 126 167 167 293 l004 0 0 2 120 0 130 173 173 304 l005 0 0 2 132 0 135 179 179 314 COMENTS: CHICA80 WU8 AREA FORECASTS. RELIEVER FOR OR8. i 1 1 1

I Ccamenwonlth Edicen Corp 2ny Eicn Nuclear Powcr Station P&go 47 Aircraft crash Fire Detection Systems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I I l I i ' I I I I APPENDIX 3 Fatal and Serious Accidert Data Postcrash Fire Datt, Years 1977 thru 1985 I l I l 1 l I I I I

N E D I C 0 3 1 9 0 9 2 4 6 4 6 9 1 1 3 C 4 2 2 5 5 1 9 2 6 7 9 1 H A 3 2 1 1 1 1 5 2 2 1 1 3 S D R O C E 6 3 1 2 5 6 2 2 7 1 7 0 2 4 2 0 R 5 3 2 6 5 1 0 2 7 8 1 1 6 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 6 2 3 1 ~ 3 E E N E R R U C t N u O I f R ST U E A H T E NI e R T l f E VH A O 0 i A I' A9 E3 1 I 1 Y 2 CL C E A - Y 1 6 6 5 6 0 1 6 6 3 7 0 7' 3 4 7 I A R B 8 6 2 3 3 1 2 4 2 1 1 2 4 6 5 I E 7 A 3 6 6 9 Y LN7 Y R L AE9 1 T 1 A I G1 1 0 7 1 2 6 3 5 o 0 1 7 4 2 6 0 4 8 9 4* A M 8 6 2 5 2 t 3 3 1 1 1 9 5 3 1 A F. I 2 6 4 8 S. 1 X D it R 9 3 1 9 9 8 0 3 7 8 1 4 5 5 3 1 1 F 7 7 1 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 3 4 3 3 6 6 9 T 1 R O 0 2 1 1 7 9 o 9 8 0 4 8 9 4 2 9 1 F' 7 8 2 5 2 t 1 4 3 1 1 6 4 4 1 k 3 7 7 2 l A 2 7 8 1 3 2 4 2 4 9 6 8 1 4 6 8 1 2 7 6 4 4 3 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 7 6 3 6 6 0 E 2 N O 0 N M R O D F E T N T A R R E L E O S F T E E E F A / T L L L S S S S S E B P A I I I E E E E E E R I F M M M L L L L L L E t H I I I I I I T T N k S C 4 2 4 M M M M M M O R A 0 / I / / / M O O L F E F 1 1 3 1 2 3 4 5 5 / T 5 F F' l G F M S N 1 5 R A l R A N N N N N N N N D W D E N 5 ~ E E A R I I I I I I I I N D R R D L I 1 I A S H B T H H H H H H H H O M E O I L N T i Tt T T T T T Y h H C C R O N N N N H I i I I I I I E N T E C E A N U D U U I W W N. W W W W W P U O k A f k i

N E l' C B 1 2 1 2 0 7 1 6 0 3 1 l C B 4 7 a 3 5 4 2 2 0 3 A 4 S D R O C E 9 1 2 2 6 5 0 8 2 6 0 4 1 6 '8 4 7 4 1 3 5 4 2 2 0 3 7 h 4 8 e F. C N E R R S U T C N C E N O DSO I EI F R O E CI I E CRA H i R T L AUI B JVH A O A T NA" E3 I CI - 1 Y 2 A L ~ C F' LA - Y 1 0 8 7 o 3 6 5 9 3 3 5 B 7 MAR B 8 2 1 t 1 9 9 I I I 1 E7 A 1 Y AN7 YR L RT E9 1 I A L G1 1 0 5 1 9 3 2 3 8 8 6 3 3 8 8 7 N I H M 8 1 1 1 6 5 A F I S. I AI M 1 E I O W R I R f 5 6 3 9 2 8 1 1 5 3 9 1 3 F 7 1 1 1 1 ~ 7 6 I 1 T F R O G 0 5 6 7 3 3 6 8 8 5 1 6 8 F' 7 2 1 R 1 8 7 1 I A ~ 7 9 4 3 8 4 5 8 8 7 6 1 8 7 1 1 1 8 ? E' N O N M R O D T N T F E A R R F L E O S P T E E E F A / T L L L S S S S S E P P A I I I E E E E E E R I F' M M M L L L L L L E T H I I I I I I I T N R S C 4 2 4 M M M M M M D R A O / I / / / N D L F' F F 1 1 3 1 2 3 4 5 L / I P ~ I G F N S 5 R A L R A N N N N H N N N D W I' 5 I E E A it I l I I 1 I I I N O i k l 1 f A S H P T H i H H H H H H O M L u H 1 l 1 T 1 I 1 1 Y h H C A N I N N N N O H l i t I 1 I l I N l 4 l l W W O W W W W W 1 U i k k ( U H U I I I l ,l( j j

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U.S. General Aviation Accidents - 1982 ? vi e 1 C220 ---- ALAFT ) L Ser-Fatal t o *.; 5 Minor Hone Otner Te t si-2 I On air *crt 53 83 152 1027 l0 1315 .sc.- On airstrie 3 12 13 125 1 159 4.- Off airport /striF 13 5 10 27 0 e5 P.. c Other 537 240 243 713 0 1733 57,c Total 606 340 423 1902 1 3272 10n,0 Terrent 19.5 10.4 12.9_ 58.1 ,0 100, :- U.S. General Aviation Accidents - 1982 P35' 1 Fire After Impact C220 ----: ALAPT Ser-Fatal ious Minor None Total Fet On airport 13 9 9 23 54 17.6 I On airstrip 1 3 2 5 11 3.6 ) Off airport /strie 2 0 0 2 4 1.3 Other 153 35 16 '34 233 77.5 s Total 169 47 27 ' 64 307 100.0 Percent 55.0 15.3 9.8 20.8 100.0 1 1 e

.U.S. General Aviation Accidents - 1983 pe;e i ) c204 ____- e...,.,. None Minor Ser-F a L.21 T o t 3.1 F:-t j-Off sirPort/altstriP 689 '255 lo? .46c 1607 51.7 On sirecrt 925 130 93 65 1213 30.1 On airstrie 130 29 li 4 .177 3.' Other 47 18 19 26' L109 3.5. i

ctsl 1791 432 322 561. 3306 100.0

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i. l i l U.S. General Aviation Accidents - 1983 Fase 1 Fire Af'ter Impact 4 C204 ---.- i v,, uw. None Minor Ser Fatal Tetal Fet 1 Off streort/siestrie 23 13 18 115 it*' 72.5 On airport 27 1 6 21 55 23.5 On airstrie 2 1 0 =0 3

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i Other 0 0 2 4 6 2.e Total 52 15 26 140 ?37 100.0 Fereent 22.3 64 11.2 60.1 100.0 i ') l

I 1 ') s fsee U.S. General Aviation Accidents - 1984 d ) C204 - - - -:: u l l None Minct Ser. Fatal T:t21 E ': t Off a i r p o r t/.:i r s t rie 660 278 262 477 1s77 55.0 On airport 844 132 64 50 1090 35.3 .j On sirstria 140 25 9 5 170' 5.' Other 50 14 13 24' ~101 3.3 Total 1694 449 348 556 '3047.1^0.0 Percent 55.6 14.7 13 4 13.2 100.0 l I. U.S. General' Aviation Accidents - 1984 Page 1 Fire After Impact C204 ---.: C27 i i None Minor See Fatal Total F-t Off airport / airstrip 33 24 37 138 232 20.2 U On airport 19 2 3 19 43' '15,0 On airstrip-3 0 0 1 4 1.4 Other 3 0 1 4 8 2.' e Total SS-26 41 162' 297 100.0 Percent '20.2 9.1 14.3 56 4 100.0 l i I I

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U.S. General' Aviation' Accidents - 1965 i c;04'.. _; I l Ncne hinor Eer Fet;1 Tats 1 P:t Off airport /sirstrip 649 240 227 442 1759 Ss.: On c2rport 753 ' 142 70 54 1024 37.0 On airstrip 129 24 6 6 165 '.,0 Other 7 6 5 6 24 .7 Total 1543 412' 308 509 277' 100 0 Fereent 65.7 14.9 11.1 18.3 100.0 U.S. General Aviation Accidents - 1985 p,,, 3 Fire After Impact C204 ----> C27 i None Minor Se r - Fatal. Total Pet Off airport /sirstrie 29 17 17 135 19 P. 75.0 On airport 25 6 8 17-56 21.2 On airstrip 4 2 0 1 7 0.7 Other 0 0 1 2 3 1.1 Total-SB 25 26 155 ?61 100.0. Percent 22.0 95 9.8 58.7 100.0

I-Crmmonwc31th Edicen CctpOny Eien NuclCar P370r Ctotion P0go 48 Aircraft Crash Fire Detection Systems Analysis Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I I I I I APPENDIZ 4 1986 Flight Tracks - Touch & Go Operations 1986 Flight Tracks - Departures 1986 Flight' Tracks - Arrivals I I I I I

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I 1 ccamonwcalth Edison CcCpany Zicn Nucloar Powor Otetion PEga 50 Aircraft Cr00h Firo-Datcction Sy0tcmo An31yoic Probabilistic Risk Evaluation I Lg I 1 j APPENDIX 6 Complete Accident History of Waukegan Regional Airport Years - 1964 through 1987 I I I I.

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== v&C . a 4 e j e e > >= -a t* 6 8 .J i em p 8 J to-O .J w 'j l w8 6 m E a 6C
== 0 0 2 O M i n I a i >=
~~= u b~~
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*i.
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~~m. O 4~~
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=
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~~E w~~
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~~= s 8~~
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=
~~w I MC 3 8 6 e. 3 3 > to 4 aw F o u z 3 o-a u a e r eo e r I e o I t ad 4 4 0 e4 i j ,a f &a F M p. E em e* F e e a a= 2 w& Oe w >F wE 'e 0 0 & 42 O, O,.J D aw kC ar Os es u e e as~~
~~J e c u,~~
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al' 4 **
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=
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~~er >~~
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)
5t 1 .I I V 4.. e v O b 1 0-O t t ts i 1 l
4 0 8 0 4 I i 8 4 4 8 9 8 E '9 8 >.J & g 0 M4W f a 5 2 >= & 9 9 *= 6
~~3 > O 4 W 0~~
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*ME 9 1 9
4W 8 e us a. I I 8 8'd 43 0 4 W e M tr B 3 E E e= 0 t FW7e f 6 O@OE 8 8 Y M E ** 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 F I 1 3 e i O 8 0 O 9 0 7 0 t u 9 6 D I e O a 0 t= 8 0 I 4 .J nm 4 I W f a O 8 s 8 Y t a >- se e EE W o.a 1 EOI WW
~~W 9 c& I FM 4 ew a e EW eW 9 J39 O%~~
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~~O O 2~~
~~e. 9~~
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~~9 lm 3 4 9 2 0~~
t *= 0 0 0 0 W w g e awi J OI I W F* O 8 9 0 K 4 vs 8 6 => 4 6 .J W u-4 4 O we t I rz I 4 e t-e .y 6 *= 0 R A p er e a em 9 O I e* O 4 6 e K 4 ** i 4 Ge 4 8 4 l C 3 .J t er i e an 1 O f O 0 0 W 4 W E e 8 ta t %7C W LM e
==a 4 wQg > = = l F 6 W 45 9 e wO 0 .J @ e e= WE 9 9 TFO W t i O O l i F >- P 8 i .ne 4 +4 1 E. O t a wO 9 l F .J>= 6 4 4 l 8 s? dC e F e .J w nm e 6 C 6 .J ns I = e em 3 0 .5 0 *= 0 e F 3 e t ? 3 O ** p u e e .T > I 8sh W E9 .) l a.' t V E O l s w e-2 nme E s* t e = e n. uO t t s (* A W.*., i t 4 fe *** L E d i e
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~~m d~~
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~~.e w~~
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=
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to. #% K 2-W G w I WA 2 t> w 2 4 O O 3 0 > *
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== > N
~~=e O &~~
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~~= 0 E O W~~
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+
1 4 z e t 5 E E 1 0., 6 +.e I 6 4 6 i e-t to 0 3 4 i
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~~= D E 4 em OE 1~~
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=
es 0 0 W r > W s= r e M e f *= 4 A 4 es. en O 'M E tas t ts-e e= D .J E== ** i 2 er aW 8 m sa D== 3> *= 4 sa 8 6 0 0 & OEE CL -E I w I E4m >= net is 3w 3 4 t 6 F w t' &* Z lL w a to @ O 9 = 0 MG4 em a E .e4 D e.) g i 4 8 8441 8 WWQ & e= E W W e l ens.a 4 t= se @ M em E 9 0 WFO F B4 F W w &EO& 3 0 O F ** em E O O 8 9
=
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7w
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~~.J E~~
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s
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0 6 J l W 4 0 0 M 4 4 Ok t' t > e >O e 9 m O E t t MFW t t @ w> m 4 0 4 e E W e t w 1 tJE tb4 g 4 0 MJ P>W t o 8 M4k N>> l 6 E 6 t w a w tw wEm 8 0 0 @ME w @w $ J t 4M3 'M E t e i DE D PE 0 4 I 40> bew I t WEM O E e t Z I 43 0 0 adw WMS 0 DE O OEM I O w DDM t i 200 J >OZ l 4 g >F = mew 9 4 l l 6 9 0 h A i 1 M a M i 8 K O E g g a e e e a m a e t O 0 1 ZE l l J E J WW t 0 Q l l t E E = E OO h i e O = = 0 su B e WM e d JM A4 6 8 EE E E ME Eb WW W Mw ww EW 9 W l WL EW J4 W4 E t >M e E% OME DO 8% OJJ g 200 ww www a ww wW S $@& 9 EE MOE kW EE WER 6 emal ED E EW ED Eww 4 I JD0 OM s es O DA OM abw K 6 m4 0 W E wp WO We w W 9 0 2w &2 se B Zw & se se K t i OJ Od@ ML OJ O@@ w 8 0 24 wF EE FL EE 4 3 8 kJw sw www I I Oh o J8 000 h M t E l eOO E LW W ONO EE O k t % 9 WFw EF E Ws4 E I ME 4 Mad wW w MJJ ." w w6 w I OCO E 3E @c
~~C O E~~
M O t M M t E Ob 22 E D D w ee t Am we W e 3 4 000 3 J C00 O 9 0 mk p WO w w G B E 8 W S E N 0 > I I 8 8 WO 6 4 5 w mt t EWW R@ 3 WWW w a 08 8 W40 m2 Oh WEO e o e 4 0 Jw WE D Z b M e t EW EC m 4 8 J EM Ett w D w9 6 4 wwOJE d w l t w 20kmm J 2 wee i O%W%E w a D W i w I 2 &@mW l a e a EDaw O O E G O 8 ww@ D6 E E O 9 6 E M OWEJO E e t w l N D >Gw N M E l h i A D E l WW@ l b w w t e i e M Ow i m* O W J f a t I www w 8 F O 1 W G ( Jw WZWWO 3w 4 $ 4 i FM@ WEwrF RW@ M g = 4 WNew a =4 wed M l e O M@ EE we l @J LEE w 0 w '. t w E w@4 O 4 i W2Aa E OMMbe &EO M i i O O EE w A E I I B w ROOwW W O e I w www>s e w f a E W &>>wCw t i E OwwdhM D w e 4 2 3 EOok 3 Z g O 8 e 4 m 42EE g O e M 2 0 t J EQOO T w O 0 F 4 J w ( M wwwWM J w M E W t o I w w Eb t h WE J M W 4 4 w 0 m 3 w $ MM O W w 3 W 9 M g > e 4 e ag Fy 4 e a 0 W 8 F 3 Ok OWWMEW 2 3 O W 6 W 4 a E4EMk3 4 2 e eC e 4 4 w ee =4 OME l as aW t J e w kB 2 MEMMJEW m E ME M 9 9 d >2D> wED3 De w >E wE 3 e t 3 awJw wOCORW D aw WO O e e w 00w J' M W W W ud t O W 30>3 MW w e e 3 4p e 3 FF3=M 3 Lwo D E e t 3 EWwO gF<dOud O uv00 4E 4 6 9 C-WW w W>JJ& W D wWEw wm J e N 46 W O dd N 84W O A J 6 w Fw wkb eWW 9 fo e= wkMw 4
~~4 whwJ JOWW>JM N~~
h wwJ JOwW l l 9 0 COVJ W Y s* k wW % 9 CCDJ C _J R W 6 ED Cww wJ@ F O /O WwOm t > 0 6-b w k wW c&FF bro eb b L DW C & > E l e t % E FL o KwF %F EL O W e c t t w d > e C1 m rw e> a e 6 6 4 w 2> A Wes 4> Ek b ) 8 t e n t.: a N 4 ~ 9 J t N P t = 0 t w I e 1 0 0 M M l
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== w 6 ed W D w0 W4 E 4 WL 2 0 >eI e% .O.e.J g 0 J, a%- to eZOg ww ww a. l @ & I ZE >.J J O EE e= 3> 2 0 ** a e F3
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=
w 2 et O
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~~= a 8~~
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J P 2 L___._____._.__._..____________________._
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