ML20147C116

Responds to Denying Request That Plant Be Shut Down Pending More Thorough Review of Seismic Risks

ML20147C116
Person / Time
Site:	San Onofre
Issue date:	12/10/1996
From:	Dwyer S AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED
To:	Shirley Ann Jackson, Miraglia F, The Chairman NRC (Affiliation Not Assigned), NRC COMMISSION (OCM)
Shared Package
ML20147C112	List: ML20147C109 ML20147C116
References
NUDOCS 9702050309
Download: ML20147C116 (3)

Text

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Dec.10,19se

or.sudoyJeanoon and

! Pseek J. AAre0 lie. Jr., Actin 0 Director

! omne ofNudeerReactorReOuhtion j u.s.NedeerReguhtory ComrWeston Washington D. C. 306660001 i

M N. M mY W. We i nsve asety ruoloved your hear of Nov. 22,1998 in which tir. harague denied my request that me SoNSS be immemetely shut does ponen0 a more thorough review of the sehmic deks.

I was told West there would be a peelen proosse during whidt I assumed that I wedd be able to

psesent information and date. I now assume that the request for a shuttown is separate tem the i petMon process and West is why your denial was leeued Gret.1 Wilnk Stat you should have at least j ist me autant somethin0 before this dodelen was made.

Mr. 48reOlia then used some other SCE dela to substantiste his denial and hasty conclusions He stated that there is insufflaient evidence to warrant immediate acthm, but I have not had the chonos to submit any evidonos yet! He also elated that he wig evaluste my age 0sNons, but I have not even had the chenes to submit any yet! Even if my request is to sepended into two i parts, an smargency part and a lengthier potillon process, R should be snede clearer to whom l, and when information is to be submlued i i have enclosed a heter paper on etw unowtainties or seismic niek needesino . This is omy sw 1 beginning at what we be presented. I we aho submt an ousne of the rnsterlei to be presented neer i enske corredians or addnions to the No*M that is eming pubashed in the Federal Reghter7 No information was included about this part rj #w prooses other.

er these procedursi misunderstananos and teceos are typical of your hendun0 of emergency and alhar aquests, I prey they improve before we amoede. W ehey are inecouve of a systemsee ademostremve prehism, then not only is s. Campomie in denser, but se rest of the country.

chee ses is an eessgency %, pleses oss or eens to seemists weh these posedwel sceners. Lats use regder met for documents l

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se,* row,or..:edo.)=i ,

ele Robert A.eenregret, Esq.

tiert bvine she.#100 Tests,CA 32700 (ytg 7st 1ses (ysg 7si-s745 Fx sedewec. net o n e.. m s. d e .4 y N + e r s 9702050309 970203 PDR 0 ADOCK 05000361 PDR

i i- uncertainty Facters ANeceng Schmic Risk Modellin0 in 80. Califomie i

l The fonowh0 not is an ousne of se io nefor unconstineses in ounent aseemic riot anesysis. TNs

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set was taken from a recent paper by M.D. petersen, et al, (Seismic Hazenf Anseyels, AEG,1-j ases). Their canoeuelon that me enere t.as An0stes, ventwo and orange Counces are high nesent erees. Acceleremons of 0.de (pDs),1.ca (o.Seec SA), and 0.5e(1.eec SA) een occur esody everywhus. 640her acostereuons occur near an of the known faut zones. Simber fl0ures oeutd be estoubted for omer areas in S. Coluomie, such as San Diego, W. Riverside, San

! BemenAno and importalCo's.

They also conomde that even mou0h mese askedssons am bened on a tooed consensus of

~aent sciengAc opinion, numerous uncertainties selet in assumptions about most of the key pommsters. The modnes are sensys being odeesd sah each event. This is charactedstic of the edstory of me science. 40 years a0o, we dient even know that the San Andnes Fault had oRests of ever 300 mues! Yes, we have come a long way towenis underelanen0 to spectander geology and tectonics of S. CaNomie, but Wiem are sel a lot of things we need to know to enske certeln artices decisions on maior construction projects, post and present. We need to continuesy upgrade the colouleuons because #te awareness of the seismic eleks is so dramatically incrossed wth each event.

The esveral diesserous earthquakes we have had in S. Coelfomie were fun of surprises and we were adually very lucky we edn't have greater loss of IWo. These events are the womings that we should heed before an even greater estastrophy occurs. We must plan for the mitl0stion of an event gmotor then any recently expertenced on our local emell faults. We must propers for a gaat event on the Sodhom San Andress Fault. This event could emelly be l>8, and wEl probably be much greater then the San Francisco Quake, h>8+.

There are a lot of things we shouki do as soon as posetile. Some are docussed below.

! List Of Seismic Analyons Uncertainties j 1. How to quantify shp rates and maximum meOnitudes alon0 with their uncertainties for at faut sources.

2. How to kioorporte behd thrums wth gpropriots wem.

3. What asismo9enic zone widths to use for various fault zones

4. Which magnbude estributions are most approprials for various faults.

5. How to incorporate hech0round seismicky and wNch "If value is most appropdate for esponennemy esentwies earhtquakes S. Whether to use source zones or almpte point sownes in modeeing beckomund seismicay.  !

7. Which stemeuve segmentauon models are vietdo pncluen0 allemedve esecedes models for j "A" senos).

S. Hour to incorporate geodetic date erectly in the model.

s. Which saanusson movelons are most appropdate and how to model emund moenn from issgo SD8) eenhquetes.

10. How to moolve me escrepancy between me rate of eenhquakas in mis and other seismic heaani models and the histonc eartstuske reconi (espeeleRy in Wie Transvens Ranges). ,

1 The quantRy and nelure of times unoensinges means tiet we can congnus to supent risw l surydses wei each event. The prosferation of montonne stations and new computensed modsene has increened me analysis espeNay and puoleton, but has done see to impovo me l l

amoumor of am remas and se vetus of me vuesmons". to test, vadeus amor non mamamescal models ter preengon and mal 0 eden have a besar track recent. The 'Weder West I woued monumend is one met asementedoes how hummes and ummed our sciences are compared to Wie vast compleeMes of Wie mechanisms of Geology. This means tiet we should not tehe steks when we laraw tiet we resty don't have tie knowledge to eyetuste 9mm. This "moder has an l Inhemnt resped for ese Immr'sous power of eerequales, and perhaps an inhemnt wisdom. J Anhough the colodstons for San Onofre Nucteer Generanno meuon were updated in 1906,

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i R la my understandin0 only a 'Probstmetic" omloulation was done, based on some almple assumed parameters t appreeney concludes met the old coloulations made in an eedier i

seismoingy era are sem rotatively valid. Adstional coloulations of the true maximum event er a ' Deterministic" coloulation were not done. Adstional parameters, assumpeons and vertous i

j combinagons of these were not modeled and run in a Dyneelde, Sequential way. New tecniques

! could show beter what actusty couki take pleos as the quake event unfolds Not only #m l sematural features, but also tes soll, rock, civE engineertne. heneware, plumbin0, eleddoel and l espooleby human seustions need to be evalueled in a Resistic Sceneno Analysis. I dont bolieve

! tot anythin0 Wis this has been done. It shodd be if we are to approach restly and get beyond I simpasse mathemescal calculemons. Also, the noks sheed not he taken unis these more emphiselosted dynamic scenados are evalveted. Therfore, ses plant should be temporty shut i deem ponen0 the resues, and not continus " Status Que' udes we debels ans need for fweher

! studies. This omvent seuelion is neeher solendRc nor asfe. The setemic nsks to mis plert are i

to Smetast of any cuneney operating plant in me wond.

Not only should the plant be tempodly shut down, but also the weste store 0s situation should be i

doet wth as an "Immedlete Emegpacy Hazant". The weste should be prepared for transport out of tie 8. Catfomis Seismic Zone. I believe that severed temporary abas are aveNeblo.

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Almost anypteos is safer then in a pool at the boed! This foollity for storing weste was never

! desi0ned for the current unapes and this is totally unarmfda* and a violation of numerous I rules, regulat'ons, laws, human rl0 hts and basic common sense. The weste should be kW as

' soon as poseltile, to the Nevada Test Site, Pelo Vente Plant, or some other ete away fman do me population centers, weber sources and the San Andress Fault! We need to set the esemple for other feelities. This operation should tie state of the art. If this leni posette, then it should be shut down pennenently.

i helgions of people are at nok, the Pacinc Ocean is et risk and the future of Amerlos is at risk.

This is a adme a0einst Humanity and the Planet! ,

SincerWy, 81~'

Steiidn~owver sedgade. net

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