ML20138B436

Affidavit of Ld Hamilton Re Assertion by Intervenor That Normal Operation of Facility Will Cause Irreparable Injury to Ocre Due to Exposure to Routine Radioactive Emissions

ML20138B436
Person / Time
Site:	Perry
Issue date:	10/09/1985
From:	Hamilton L BROOKHAVEN NATIONAL LABORATORY
To:
Shared Package
ML20138B407	List: ML20138B403 ML20138B436 ML20138B449 ML20138B463 ML20138B470
References
OL, NUDOCS 8510150359
Download: ML20138B436 (14)

Text

- . _ .

~*..

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING APPEAL BOARD In the Matter of )

)

THE CLEVELAND ELECTRIC ) Docket Nos. 50-440 OL ILLUMINATING CO., ET AL. ) 50-441 OL

)

(Perry Nuclear Power Plant, )

Units 1 and 2) )

AFFIDAVIT OF LEONARD D. HAMILTON City of Washington )

-) ss.

District of Columbia )

LEONARD D. HAMILTON, being duly sworn according to law, -

deposes and says as follows:

1. My name is Leonard D. Hamilton. I am currently, and have been since its inception, Head of the Biomedical and Envi-ronmental Assessment Division of the National Center for Analy-ses of Energy Systems and Director, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for the Assessment of Health and Environ-mental Effects of Energy Systems at Brookhaven National Labora-tory, located in Upton, New York.

2. The Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division is responsible for_ developing a realistic assessment of the health and environmental effects from the production and use of all~ forms of energy -- from exploration for the fuel to end use l raoPau G

Pa%ho l

• ' m+. -% -

n

-- including electric power generation using fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear, and new technologies.

3. I have been involved in assessing the risks of radia-tion for man for 39 years, and have spent 24 years studying the health effects.of nuclear energy for electric power generation.

I have been involved in medical research since 1946. I have a

.B.A.

(1943) and qualified in medicine (1945) from Oxford Uni-versity, and I have a Ph.D. in experimental pathology from Cambridge University (1952). I am a registered medical practi-tioner in the United Kingdom and a licensed physician in New .

York. Attachment A to this Affidavit is a statement of my per-sonal qualifications. .

4. In this Affidavit I respond to the assertion by in-tervenor Ohio Citizens for Responsible Energy ("OCRE"), relying on an affidavit by Dr. Carl J. Johnson, that normal operation of the Perry Nuclear Power Plant will cause irreparable injury to OCRE members (and the general population) due to their expo-sure to routine radioactive emissions from the plant. See OCRE Motion for a Stay Pendente Lite, September.26, 1985, at 6-7 and Exhibit 1, Affidavit of Dr. Carl J. Johnson (hereinafter

" Johnson"). This assertion is without scientific merit.

5. In the Final Environmental Statement related to the operation of' Perry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 and 2, (August 1982), NUREG-0884 (the "FES"), the NRC Staff estimated the quantity of radionuclides that are-anticipated to be released from Perry on an annual basis.- Dr. Johnson does not challenge

. _ . , . .~._ _.

C i .

l E these. values. See Johnson, 1 2. Neither does Dr. Johnson challenge the calculated effects from the doses that were de-i rived. Instead, Dr. Johnson claims that (i) chronic exposure to the low levels of ionizing radiation that will be released A- 'from Perry will' result in'" carcinogenic damage to body' cells";-

! -and that (ii)-genetically predispositioned persons will be "es-pecially'at risk" in becoming afflicted with cancer. Johnson,

[ 11 5-6.

i -6. In the FES, using well recognized. dose calculation models developed'by;the NRC, doses from normal plant operations 4

were calculated for the (hypothetical) maximally exposed indi-I vidual, the population within 50' miles of Perry and the entire t

I _U.S. population. FES, 5 5.9.3_and Appendix D.. The FES J .contains a number of calculations for different pathways by l- which an individual and the population may be exposed to radia-

tion'normally released from Perry.- The NRC Staff then used the I absolute risk model contained-in the;1972 Report by the' Nation-al. Academy of Sciences Advisory _ Committee on the Biological Ef-i facts of Ionizing Radiation-("BEIR I") to calculate the risk-i

j. attributed to the calculated maximum individual dose and the

. ' calculated 50-mile and U.S. population doses. The FES specifi-1

~ cally states:

I The preceding values forfrisk estimators

[ are consistent with the~ recommendations of a number of recognized radiation-protection j organizations, such as,the. International L Commission-on Radiological Protection l (ICRP), the National' Council on Radiation

[

= Protection'and~ Measurement (NCRP), the'Na-tional Academy of Sciences-(BEIR III), and I~

the United Nations Scientific Committee on the- Ef f ects of Atomic ' Radiation ' (UNSCEAR) .:

I -3 p

FES, S 5.9.3.1.1. Specifically, the NRC Staff found that the risk of mortality from cancer to the maximally exposed individ-ual from one year of Perry normal operations is less than one chance in one million. The NRC Staff also calculated the annu-al risk to the U.S. population from exposure to radioactive effluents as well as transportation of fuel and waste from the operation of this facility to be about 0.008 cancer deaths.

FES, SS 5.9.3.1.1 and 5.9.3.2.

7. One must keep in mind the conservative nature of these risk estimates made by use of the linear no-threshold ,

dose-response model. The estimate of risk to the general popu-lation is based on the aggregation of extremely tiny risks to millions of people. At the low doses calculated to the hypo-thetical maximally exposed individual, to the population within 50 miles of Perry, and to the entire U.S. population, the actu-al risk could be 0. In short, these risks are extremely small, particularly when they are compared with the cancer risk asso-ciated with causes unrelated to operation of Perry, e.g., about 400,000 cancer deaths annually in the U.S. population.

8. Dr. Johnson cites no authority for his arguments, nor does he confront the wealth of scientific evidence that contra-dicts his views. However, Dr. Johnson's general argument about low level radiation exposure implicitly challenges the nation-ally and internationally accepted dose-response curves for can-cer used by the NRC Staff in the FES. These BEIR I risk estimators are based on the assumption that chronic exposure to 4_

low levels of radiation causes cancer in linear proportion to the impact of high levels of radiation -- a conservative as-sumption that in all likelihood significantly overestimates the risk of low level radiation. See, e.g., BEIR I at 90. (See also BEIR III at Tables V-26 to V-31.) Obviously, then, these risk estimates account for the " chronic exposure to ionizing radiation" about which Dr. Johnson is concerned.

9. Dr. Johnson also expresses two other, related con-cerns. First, he alleges that genetic factors play a role in determining which individuals exposed to carcinogens will develop cancer. Second, he claims that individuals who have a family history of cancer are especially at risk. These are speculative assertions by Dr. Johnson based on general theories. These theories have not been substantiated by scien-tific evidence, nor does Dr. Johnson cite any specific evidence to support his assertions. For some specific tumors, e.g.,

cancer of the colon, there is evidence of a familial tendency, but there is no evidence that this family history exposes the individual concerned to an increased risk to the carcinogenic effect of ionizing radiation. There are some extremely rare diseases in the population in which individuals have some lack of DNA repair enzymes, and these individuals may be at greater risk to the induction of cancer by ionizing radiation, although there is no evidence that they are. These people are recognizably ill from these rare diseases and their extreme rarity in the population is an exception which does not l

)

substantiate Dr. Johnson's generalized theory. In any event, the genetic susceptibility of individuals to cancer, including cancer caused by radiation, is already effectively accounted for in the heterogeneous population data base from which the BEIR I dose-response curves were derived. While it has been argued, e.g., by Dr. Irwin D. Bross, that subgroups of the pop-ulation are particularly susceptible to leukemia, the estab-lished scientific community has examined Bross' theory and found it to be unsubstantiated by his own data, and to be in-consistent with other scientifically valid studies. See, e.g., .

BEIR III (1980) at 458-61 ("The applications by Bross et al.

have been clearly incorrect, and they provide no evidence that the risk of cancer from low-dose radiation is greater than in-dicated by conventional estimates.").

10. Finally, I have had the opportunity over several years to examine various assertions of Dr. Johnson about in-creased incidence of cancer from radiation exposure, and have invariably found Dr. Johnson's analyses to be scientifically flawed.

11. In summary, Dr. Johnson's concerns about the carcinogenic effects of releases from normal operation of Perry are totally unfounded.

fd_hC Leonard D. Hamilton Subscribed and sworn to before me '

this 9th day of October, 1985.

k % . i/gA>

' Notary Pubile My Commission expires > p.//790 .

0 (/

l Attachment 1 DR. L. D. HAMILTON PERSONAL QUALIFICATIONS My name is Leonard D. Hamilton. My address is: 6 Childs Lane, Setauket, New York, 11733. I am, among other responsi-bilities, Head of the Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division in the National Center of Analysis of Energy Systems and Director, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for the Assessment of Health & Environmental Effects of Energy Systems at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Associated Universities, Inc., Upton, New York, 11973. The Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division is jointly sponsored by the Department of Applied Sciences and Medical Department at Brookhaven. The Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Divi- ,

sion (BEAD) aims at developing a realistic assessment of biomedical and environmental effects of energy production and use. All forms of energy, including electric power generation using fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear, and new technologies, are assessed. The Biomedical Environmental Assessment Division was the lead g.-oup in the Health and Environmental Risk Analysis Program, Human Health and Assessment Division, Office of Health and Environtiental Research, Office of Energy Research, U.S. De-partment of Energy, assessing the health and environmental ef-facts of energy production and use and among other

responsibilities was charged with producing a comparative health and environmental effects assessment of the different energy systems. The Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division also has substantial support from the U.S. Environ-mental Protection Agency and was the lead group for assessing the health effects of complex technologies. The Division is designated a World Health Organization and United Nations Envi-ronment Program [WHO & UNEP] Collaborating Centre for the As-sessment of Health and Environmental Effects of Energy Systems.

I have been involved in assessing the risks of radiation for man for 39 years, specifically the health effects of nucle-ar energy for electric power generation for 24 years, and the assessment of the comparative health effects from various ener-gy sources, for the past 12 years. The Biomedical and Environ-mental Assessment activity formally began in July, 1973; for the past and present year our level of effort is 300 man-months annually.

I received my Bachelor of Arts in 1943 and qualified in medicine from Oxford University in 1945. I am a registered medical practitioner in the United Kingdom and licensed physi-cian in New York State. After several positions in University hospitals, which included a position as Resident Medical Offi-car at the Radiotherapeutic Centre, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, during which time I was concerned with the manage-ment of cancer patients undergoing treatment with radiation, I proceeded to research at Cambridge University on histological studies of the mechanism of the action of therapeutic doses of ionizing radiation for which I received my Ph.D. in experimen-tal pathology in 1952. In the meanwhile, in 1951, I had re-ceived my Doctor of Medicine degree from Oxford; this is a se-nior medical qualification in the United Kingdom, roughly equivalent to Diplomate in Internal Medicine in the United States. I am also a Diplomate of the American Board of Pathol-ogy (Hematology).

From 1950-1964 I spent 14 years on the research staff of the Sloan-Kettering Institute for Cancer Research and on the <

clinical staff of Memorial Hospital in New York being Associate Member and Head, Isotope Studies Section at the Institute and Assistant Attending Physician, Department of Medicine at Memo-rial. During this time I was also a member of the faculty of Cornell University Medical College and a Visiting Physician, Cornell Division, Bellevue Hospital. Since then I have main-tained a continuing association with the Sloan-Kettering Insti-tute as Associate Scientist.

At the Institute my laboratory research was on the molecu-lar structure of the genetic material (DNA) and the cells in man concerned with the immune mechanism. I provided the DNA on which the proof of the double-helical structure of DNA is based, and was one of the first to establish the long life of o

the immune cells in man. My clinical work in Memorial Hospital involved research on the treatment of patients afflicted with cancer and leukemia with new chemical agents and also with new applications of radiation therapy.

m

, l In 1964 I joined the scientific staff of Brookhaven Na-tional Laboratory as Senior Scientist and Head, Division of Microbiology, and Attending Physician, Hospital of-the Medical Research-Center. 'Since 1973 I have been Head of the Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Group which in 1976 became a Divi-

'sion of the National Center of Analysis of Energy Systems.

At Brookhaven I continued my laboratory research begun at Sloan-Kettering. In addition since my Visiting Fellowship at St. Catherine's College, Oxford 1972-73, I have been concerned with placing all risks in life in perspective; and since becoming Head of the Biomedical and Environmental Assessment activity in 1973, particularly with the assessment of the haz-ards associated with different energy sources and their use.

Our group has the lead responsibility to DOE for the assessment of health and environmental effects from various energy sys-tems, and of coordinating such assessments in national la-boratories, universities and research institutes in the United States.

My interest in the risks of radiation for man began with my Ph.D. work in Cambridge in 1946.and, since DNA and the im-mune system are prime targets of radiation damage has continued throughout my laboratory research. I was associated informally with the United Nations Scientific Committee'on Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) almost since its inception in 1957, served as Consultant, Office of the Under-Secretaries for Spe-cial Political Affairs (UNSCEAR), 1960-62, and was responsible 4_

' F -

for the first draft of the somatic effects of radiation in the 1962 report. This section covers the effects of radiation in inducing leukemia and cancer in man. I have reviewed most of the working papers of UNSCEAR since then. I was a member of the National Research Council-National Academy of Sciences (NAS-NAS) Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation, Subcommittee on Hematologic Effects, 1960-64, the NRC-NAS Solar Energy Research Institute: Workshop, 1975, the NRC-NAS Committee-on Environmental Decision Making, Steering Committee on Envi-ronmental Monitoring, Panel on Effects Monitoring 1975-76, the NRC-NAS Health Effects Resource Group, Risk Impact Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) 1975-80, the NRC-NAS Panel on the Trace Element Geochemistry of Coal Resource Development Related to Health 1976-80, and'the NAS-NRC Committee on Research Needs on the Health Effects of Fossil Fuel Combustion Products, 1976-80.

I was a member of the Mayor's Technical Advisory Committee on Radiation, New York City, since 1963 until its en/,

December, 1977 and have been a member of the Technical Advisory Committee on Radiation to the Commissioner of Health of the City of New York since August, 1978.

Since 1972, I was a Consultant to the Environment Direc-torate, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development; since 1976 served as DOE-(formerly ERDA) Representative in the U.S. Delegation to the Environment Committee and U.S. delegate to the Joint Environment-Energy Steering Group. I was a member

of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Internation-al Panels of Experts on the Environmental Impacts of Produc-tion, Transportation, and Use of Fossil Fuel 1978, on the Envi-ronmental' Impacts of Nuclear Energy 1978-79, on Renewable Sources of Energy and the Environment 1980, and on the Compara-tive Assessment of Environmental Impact's of Different Sources of Energy, 1980. I.was a member of the Beijer Institute,_UNEP, and. USSR Commission for UNEP International Workshops on Envi-ronmental Implications and Strategies for Expanded Coal Utilization, 1980-and 1984.

I ma currently a member of the U2S.' Department of H'alth e and Human Services, Public Health Service Centers for Disease Control, National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health group of consultants advising on the epidemiological study of the employees at-the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard where an alleged increase in leukemia was reported by'Najarian and Colton in 1978, a Consultant to United. Nations Environment Program on the comparative health effects of different energy sources,-World Health Organization (WHO) Focal Point in the United Nations on health and environmental effects of energy systems, and a Mem-ber of the WHO Expert Advisory Panel on Environmental Hazards.

I have been Professor of Medicine, Department of Medicine, Health Sciences Center, State University of'New York at Stony Brook, New York since 1968 and I am currently a member of the American Association ~for Cancer Research, American Society for Clinical Investigation-(emeritus),.American Association of~

6-a--t'-<n _--__.--n------------_-,_-------------a-.--------___--m---.__-- -----.--------------------1-,--.-----,u.----------- , ---. - -- - - - - -,-__---,- - - -

1 1

Pathologists, Inc., the Harvey Society, and the British Medical Association.  ;

I have published more than 150 scientific papers, including many reports assessing the hazards of various energy  ;

i sources. ,

T I

1 .

J I

g a

f

• s i ,

l i

t s

b i

i i

I i

t m-.