ML20136F441
| ML20136F441 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Diablo Canyon, San Onofre, 05000000 |
| Issue date: | 10/25/1984 |
| From: | Dircks W NRC OFFICE OF THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR OPERATIONS (EDO) |
| To: | Zerbe J NRC OFFICE OF POLICY EVALUATIONS (OPE) |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20136D809 | List: |
| References | |
| FOIA-85-653 NUDOCS 8411030064 | |
| Download: ML20136F441 (9) | |
Text
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OCT 2 51984 MEMORANDUM FOR:
John E. Zerbe Director Office of Policy Evaluation FROM:
William J. Dircks Executive Director for Operations
SUBJECT:
STAFF COPMENTS ON MODIFICATIONS TO THE EP RULE Pursuant to your request the staff has reviewed the various modifications to the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Emergency Planning which would codify the Comission's decisions in San Onofre and Diablo Canyon concerning the need to consider earthquakes specifically in emergency planning. No objections to the proposed additions on modifications have been indicated.
However, the paragraph on page five which you pro)ose to delete should be retained. While I agree that the paragraph could )e confused with the discussion of the Diablo Canyon decision on pages 4 & 5, it does provide the necessary context for the discussion on page 6.
Therefore, it should be reinserted just ahead of the first full paragraph on page 6 following the completion of the discussion on Diablo Canyon.
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QUESTION 22.
THE U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY HAS INFORMED THE NRC OF INFORMATION CONCERNING SEISMIC RISK IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BASED ON REVIEW 0F THE CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA EARTHQUAKES IN THE 1800S.
PLEASE PROVIDE THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:
A.
THE PLANT SITES POTENTIALLY AFFECTED; ANSWER.
WE ASSUME THAT THE "INFORMATION" REFERRED TO BY THE SUBCOMMITTEE IS THE LETTER OF NOVEMBER 18, 1982, FROM JAMES F. DEVINE, 0F THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) TO ROBERT E. JACKSON OF THE NRC IN WHICH THE LETTER STATED:
"BECAUSE THE GEOLOGIC AND TECTONIC FEATURES OF THE CHARLESTON REGION ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN SEA 20ARD, WE CONCLUDE THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO RECENT OR HISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT OTHER REGIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED STRONG EARTHQUAKES, THE HISTORICAL RECORD IS NOT, OF ITSELF, SUFFICIENT GROUNDS FOR RULING OUT THE OCCURRENCE IN THESE OTHER REGIONS OF STRONG SEISMIC GROUND MOTIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED NEAR CHARLESTON IN 1886.
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG GROUND MOTION DUE TO AN EARTHQUAKE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR AT A PARTICULAR MARKEY/NRR
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4/4/85
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. QUESTION 22A. (CONTINUED),
LOCATION IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY BE VERY LOW, DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC EVALUATIONS OF THE SEISMIC HAZARD SHOULD BE MADE FOR INDIVIDUAL SITES IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO ESTABLISH THE SEISMIC ENGINEERING PARAMETERS FOR CRITICAL FACILITIES."
i THE PLANT SITES POTENTIALLY AFFECTED INCLUDE THOSE IN THE APPALACHIAN PIEDMONT AND ATLANTIC C0ASTAL PLAIN (AS THE EASTERN SEAB0ARD IS DEFINED IN THE USGS LETTER).
THE SPECIFIC SITES ARE LISTED IN THE TABLE IN THE RESPONSE TO QUESTION 22B.
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4 i
i MARKEY/NRR 4/4/85
QWESTION 22.
B.
A LIST OF ALL PLANT SITES INCLUDING (1) THE j
OBE (2) THE SSE, (3) THE TYPE OF FOUNDATION, l
(4) THE ESTIMATED FREQUENCY OF RECURRENCE FOR l
THE OBE AND SSE, AND (5) THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATE OF GROUND MOVEMENT FOR THE SITE.
THIS LIST l
i i
SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW INFORMATION AND i
EXPLAIN NRC'S DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE f,
ESTIMATES.
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- ANSWER, THE'FOLLOWING TABLE RESPONDS TO POINTS (1), (2) AND (3).
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QUESTION 228. (CONTINUED) l SEISMIC DESIGN BASES FOR V. S. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS EASTERN SEAB0ARD A.
OPERATING REACTORS PLANT SSE**
OBE**
FOUNDATION 1.
BRUNSWICK 0.16G 0.08G S0IL 2.
CALVERT CLIFFS I a 2 0.15G 0.08G S0ll
- 3. - CATAWBA 18 2 0.15G 0.08G ROCK l
4.
CRYSTAL RIVER 0.10G 0.05G ROCK 5.
'FARLEY 0.10G 0.05G ROCK 6.
HADDAM NECK
- 0.17G NONE ROCK (CONNECTICUT YANKEE) 7.
HATCH 1 8 2 0.15G 0.08G S0IL 8.
INDIAN POINT 2.8 3 0.150 0.10G ROCK 9.
LIMERICK 0.15G 0.075G ROCK 10.
MAINE YANKEE 0.10G 0.05G ROCK 11.
MCGUIRE 1 & 2 0.15G 0.08G ROCK 12.
MILLSTONE l' O.170 0.07G ROCK MILLSTONE 2 0.17G 0.09G ROCK 13.
NORTH ANNA 1 8 2#
0.12G 0.06G ROCK 0.18G 0.08G S0ll 14.
OCONEE 1-3#
0.10G 0.05G ROCK 0.15G 0.05G S0ll 15.
0YSTER CREEK
- 0.22G 0.11G S0IL 16.
PEACH BOTTOM 1-3 0.12G 0.05G ROCK 17.
PILGRIM 1 0.15G 0.08G S0IL 18.
ROBINSON 2 0.20G 0.10G S0ll 19.
SALEM 1 a 2 0.20G 0.10G S0IL MARKEY/NRR 4/4/85
i*
.0VESTION 22.8. (CONTINUED) PLANT SSE**
OBE**
FOUNDATION 20.
ST. LUCIE 1 8 2 0.10G 0.05G S0ll 21.
V. C. SUMMER #
0.15G 0.10G ROCK 0.25G 0.15G S0ll 22.
SURRY 1 8 2 0.15G 0.07G S0ll l
23.
THREE MILE ISLAND 0.12G 0.06G ROCK l
182 l
24.
TURKEY POINT 1-3 0.15G 0.05G ROCK 25.
VERMONT YANKEE 0.14G 0.070 ROCK 26., YANKEE R0WE' BUILDING NONE S0ll CODE 1
POST CONSTRUCTION PERMIT i
27.
HOPE CREEK 1 8 2 0.20G 0.10G S0ll 28.
MILLSTONE 3 0.170 0.09G ROCK 29.
SEABROOK 0.25G 0.13G ROCK 30.
SHEARON HARRIS 0.15G 0.08G ROCK 31.
SH0REHAM 0.20G 0.10G S0ll l
32.
V0GTLE 1 8 2 0.20G 0.12G S0ll l
- THESE PLANTS UNDERWENT SEISMIC REEVALUATION AS PART OF NRC SPONSORED SYSTEMATIC EVALUATION PROGRAM, l
" SSE AND OBE ARE HORIZONTAL PEAK ACCELERATION VALUES.
VARIOUS DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRA WERE ANCHORED TO THESE VALUES.
- PLANTS WITH TWO DESIGN VALUES TO REFLECT BOTH ROCK AND S0ll CONDITIONS AT THE SITE.
MARKEY/NRR 4/4/85 l
, UESTION 228. (CONTINUED) Q (4)
THE ESTIMATED FREQUENCY AND RECURRENCE FOR THE OBE AND SSE BASED UPON SEVERAL LIMITED STUDIES THE AVERAGE FREQUENCY OF RECURRENCE OF THE SSE AT THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT SITES LISTED ABOVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0NCE IN A THOUSAND YEARS TO CNCE IN TEN THOUSAND YEARS.
SIMILARLY THE AVERAGE FREQUENCY OF RECURRENCE OF OBE AT THESE PLANTS IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF ONCE IN HUNDREDS OF YEARS.
ESTIMATION OF RECURRENCE FREQUENCIES IS UNCERTAIN AND IS NOT A LICENSING REQUIREMENT.
THEREFORE, SOME OF THE PLANTS LISTED MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTER OF LONGER RECURRENCE INTERVALS.
A SYSTEMATIC PROBABILISTIC PROGRAM AIMED AT ESTIMATING FREQUENCY OF EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IS DESCRIBED IN RESPONSE TO QUESTION 22C.
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(5)
THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATE OF GROUND MOYEMENT FOR THE SITE THE SSE PEAK ACCELERATION VALUES LISTED ABOVE AND THEIR f
ASSOCIATED DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRA REPRESENT THE MAXIMUM EARHTQUAKE VIBRATORY GROUND MOTION USED IN THE DESIGN OF EACH I
NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
SINCE THEY ARE DETERMINISTIC ENGINEERING DESIGN VALUES THEY DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT MAXIMUM POSSIBLE j
GROUND MOTIONS FROM AN EARTHQUAKE OF ANY SIZE.
RANGES OF MAXIMUM POSSIBLE GROUND MOTIONS MAY BE ESTIMATED'IN PROBABILISTIC STUDIES SUCH AS THOSE DESCRIBED IN RESPONSE TO QUESTION 22C.
L MARKEY/NRR
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1 GUESTION 22.'
C.
A DESCRIPTION OF THE ACTIONS THE NRC HAS TAKEN t
TO RESPOND TO THIS ISSUE AND WHAT RESEARCH PROGRAMS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY.
i ANSWER.
IN A COMMISSION PAPER DATED FEBRUARY 5, 1982 (SECY-82-53), THE I
STAFF INFORMED THE COMMISSION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF MODIFICATIONS i
i IN THE USGS POSITION AND IN A MEMORANDUM DATED NOVEMBER 19, 1982, THE USGS CLARIFICATION WAS FORWARDED TO THE COMMISSION ALONG WITH l
A STAFF, ASSESSMENT OF ITS SIGNIFICANCE AND A PRELIMINARY PLAN TO l
ADDRESS IT.
THIS PLAN WAS DISCUSSED WITH THE COMMISSION IN ITS NOVEMBER 19, 1983 MEETING AND A COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM PLAN WAS DEVELOPED.
THE PLAN CONSISTS OF A PROBABILISTIC PROGRAM THAT HAS l
AS ITS CORE A LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY (LLNL) i ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD AT ALL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT SITES
{
EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AND A DETERMINISTIC PROGRAM TO DETERMINE THE CAUSES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES, SUCH AS THE CHARLESTON
)
EARTHQUAKE, IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
i THE PURPOSE OF THE PROBABILSITIC PROGRAM IS TO IDENTIFY PLANTS (IF ANY) IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT WHICH THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING DESIGN LEVEL GROUND MOT!'ON IS SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN HAS BEEN ASSUMED AT OTHER LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE CENTRAL i
MARKEY/NRR t
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i QUEST.10N 22C. (CONTINUED) !
STABLE REGION OR THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION, THE UTILITY INDUSTRY, THROUGH THE ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE l
(EPRI), HAS UNDERTAKEN AN EXTENSIVE PARALLEL PROGRAM TO DEVELOP A METHODOLOGY FOR CALCULATING SEISMIC HAZARD.
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l THE PURPOSE OF THE DETERMINISTIC PROGRAM IS TO STUDY AREAS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER SEISMICITY, AS PRIMARILY IDENTIFIED BY SEISMIC NETWORKS, IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO DETERMINE IF TECTONIC l
FEATURES AND PROCESSES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEISMICITY CAN BE 1
l IDENTIFIED AND CORRELATED.
THIS IS BEING PURSUED BY CRUSTAL STUDIES, AT DEPTHS AT WHICH EARTHOUAKES OCCUR, TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A CORRELATION BETWEEN CRUSTAL STRUCTURES AT THESE DEPTHS AND EARTHOUAKE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION, STUDIES TO IDENTIFY GEOLOGIC EVIDENCE OF PREHISTORIC EARTHOUAKES ARE UNDERWAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANTLY, SEVERAL TEAMS OF INVESTIGATORS, MAINLY FUNDED BY NRC, HAVE FOUND SUCH EVIDENCE (PALE 0L10VEFACTION) IN THE CHARLESTON AREA.
THIS IS THE FIRST GEOLOGIC EVIDENCE THAT MAY l
INDICATE THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE TO MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN PREHISTORIC TIMES.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEISMIC RECURRENCE INTERVAL FOR LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE l
CHARLESTON AREA MAY BE DEVELOPED AND THAT A DETERMINATION CAN BE MADE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA IS SEISMICALLY UNIQUE.
THESE CONCLUSIONS AWAIT FURTHER INVESTIGATIONS AND ASSESSMENT.
MARKEY/NRR 4/4/85