ML20133G072

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Slide Presentation Entitled, Geoscience Plan on Eastern Seaboard Earthquakes
ML20133G072
Person / Time
Issue date: 04/13/1983
From:
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:
Shared Package
ML20132B198 List:
References
FOIA-85-363 NUDOCS 8508080548
Download: ML20133G072 (28)
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i E0 SCIENCE PLAtl ON EASTERN SEAB0ARD EARTWUAKES PRESENTATION (F DIVISION OF ENGINEERING TO THE EXTREE EXTERNAL PIBUEM SUECOMITTEE l

OF TriE ADVISORY COMITTEE ON REACTOR SAFEC4JARDS l

BY THE E0 SCIENCES ERANCH STAFF APRIL 13,1983 l

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, JANUARY 28 AND 29, 1982 EXTREME EXTERNAL PHENOMENA SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE ACRS - THE USGS INDICATED THAT IT HAD FORMED A WORKING GROUP TO REASSESS THE VALIDITY OF ITS PAST POSITION ON THE CHARLESTON EARTHOUAKE-

, FEBRUARY 5, 1982 - COMMISSION INFORMATION PAPER (SECY-82-53) INFORMED THE COMMISSION OF THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFIC' ANT IMPACT THAT ANY MAJOR MODIFICATION OF THE USGS POSITION

. COULD HAVE ON EASTERN U. S. NUCLEAR. PLANT SITES NOVEMBER 18, 1982 - RECEIVED USGS LETTER CONTAINING CLARIFICATION OF THEIR PAST POSITION

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- i "BECAUSE THE GE0 LOGIC AND TECTONIC FEATURES OF THE CHARLESTON REGION ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN SEAB0ARD, WE CONCLUDE THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO RECENT OR HISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT OTHER REGIONS HAVE EXPERIENCED STRONG EARTHQUAKES, THE HISTORICAL RECORD IS NOT, 0F ITSELF, SUFFICIENT GROUNDS FOR RULING OUT THE OCCURRENCE IN THESE OTHER REGIONS OF STRONG SEISMIC GROUND MOTIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED NEAR CHARLESTON lit 1886. ALTHCVGH THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG GROUND MOTION DUE TO AN EARTHOUAKE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IN THE EASTERN SEAB0ARD MAY BE VERY LOW, DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC EVALUATIONS OF THE SEISMIC HAZARD SHOULD BE MADE FOR INDIVIDUAL SITES IN THE EASTERN SEAB0ARD TO ESTABLISH THE SEISMIC ENGINEERING PARAMETERS FOR CRITICAL FACILITIES."
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. NOVEMBER 19, 1982- A MEMORANDUM WAS SENT FROM THE ED0 TO COMMISSIONERS PROVIDING THEM WITH THE USGS LETTER AND INDICATED:

. THECLARIFICATIONIS$QIINTENDEDTO RECOMMEND THAT A CHARLESTON-TYPE BE AUTOMATICALLY CONSIDERED IN THE SEISMIC DESIGN OF ALL. NUCLEAR PLANTS IN THE EASTERN SEAB0ARD.

. THAT AN EARlh0VAKE OF THIS SIZE (MM X)

SHOULD 501 BE CATEGORICALLY RULED OUT-'

AT LOCATIONS AWAY FROM CHARLESTON BASED SOLELY ON THE USGS'S PREVIOUS LETTERS

. THAT SUCH A CONCLUSION SHOULD BE REACHED ONLY AFTER DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC

. STUDIES FOR SITES HAVE BEEN MADE

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. NOVEMBER 19, 1982 - MEETING WITH THE COMMISSIONERS IN WHICH WE:

. INDICATED THAT WE BELIEVED THAT THE USGS CLARIFICATION REPRESENTS NOT S0 MUCH A NEW UNDERSTANDING BUT A MORE EXPLICIT RECOGNITION OF EXISTING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE CAUSATIVE STRUCTURE AND MECHANISM OF THE 1886 CHARLESTON EARTHOUAKE.

. INDICATED THAT WE DID NOT SEE A NEED FOR ANY IMMEDIATE ACTION AT SEECIFIC SITES

. PROVIDED AN OUTLINE PLAN WHICH PROVIDED FOR BOTH PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC STUDIES UNDER EXISTING ONG0ING NRC PROGRAMS He e p S 94

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, NOVEMBER 30, 1982 - PUBLIC MEETING HELD BY NRC AND USGS TO DISCUSS THE CLARIFICATION OF POSITION

, MARCH 2, 1983 - ISSUED DIVISION OF ENGINEERING GEOSCIENCE PLAN TO ADDRESS USGS CLARIFICATION OF POSITION (T0 BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN NEXT PRESENTATION)

. MARCH 5, 1983 - AT THE ACRS SUBCOMMITTEE MEETING ON CATAWBA WE REQUESTED THAT THIS ISSUE BE HANDLED AS A MORE GENERIC PROBLEM AND REQUESTED ACRS REVIEW 0F THE PROPOSED PLAN f

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h 432 TscToNICS FIGUPC 22 3 Tectonic map of the nortnem Accalachian region snowir g Precamenan basement rocks (slash ca: tem). i l Paleozoic (largely eugeosynclinal) rocks affected by the Taconic orogeny (nonzontal lines widely spaced) anc the 1 Acadian orogeny (fineiy spaced nonzontal lines). Paleozoic intrusives (black). late Paleozoic little. deformed casins "l (lignt dot), and Triassic rocks (fine dot). (Nter the tectonic map of Nortn Amenca. cy Philso King. f 969 )

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. , y DETERMINISTIC ASSESSMENT PURPOSE: TO BETTER UNDERSTAND CAUSES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE EASTERN SEAB0ARD TO DATEi i

. . NO CnUSnTIVE MECHANISMS 70R EASTERN SEAB0ARD SEISMICITY ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED

. N0 SURFACE OFFSETS DUE TO EARTHOUAKES ARE KNOWN.

. NO CRUSTAL STRUCTURES ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED IQ HAVE.BEEN AC.T.IVE DURIN(i . _ _. _ .. . .

THE QUATERNARY (LAST 2 MILLION YEARS)

. THERE IS N0 GENERALLY ACCEPTED ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SEISMICITY AND CRUSTAL STRUCTURE 3

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3 APPROACH TO PRESENT DETERMINISTIC STUDIES

, STUDY AREAS OF RELATIVELY HIGH SEISMICITY BY CONCENTRATING INVESTIGATIONS ON DEEPER

- STRUCTURES LOCATED AT HYP0 CENTRAL DEPTHS (5-20 xM)

. ATTEMPT TO IDENTIFY TECTONIC STRUCTURES AND PROCESSES RESPONSIBLE FOR SEISMICITY

, IF SUCH STRUCTURES AND PROCESSES ARE IDENTIFIED, DETERMINE WHERE ELSE-IN THE EASTERN -SEAB0ARIb - -

.i SUCH FEATURES AND PROCESSES CAtl OCCUR b

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TECHNIQUES TO BE USED INCLUDE:

A. TO DETERMINE LOCATION, ATTITUDE AND STYLE .

OF DEFORMATION AT HYP0 CENTRAL DEPTHS (5-20 KM)

. DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHOUAKES

, SEISMIC REFLECTION PROFILING p- , FAULT PLANE SOLUTIONS c;. . OTHER GE0 LOGIC AND GEOPHYSICAL TECHNIQUES B. TO INFER STATE OF STRESS AT HYP0 CENTRAL DEPTHS:

, FAULT PLANE SOLUTIONS -

, IN-SITU STRESS MEASUREMENTS

, ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC RECORDS (STRESS DROP)

C. TO DETERMINE RATE OF DEFORMATION

, STRAIN RELEASE AS DETERMINED BY SEISMICITY

, GE0DETIC SURVEYS (BOTH VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL)

. NE0 TECTONIC INVESTIGATIONS

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s. .. . s RESULTS:

. BY END OF 1985: CURRENT STATUS'0F RESEARCH INCLUDING A REVIEW AND SYNTHESIS OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA, 4

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AREAS OE STUDY INCLUDE:

. CHARLESTON

, RAMAPO FAULT ZONE

, CENTRAL VIRGINIA SEISMIC ZONE 1

GILES COUNTY, (SOUTHWESTERN) VIRGINIA

, NEW ENGLAND ,

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s .. s CHARLESTON:

MAY, 1983 7 il0RKSHOP

, TO SUMMARIZE AND EVALUATE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF TECTONICS AND SEISMICITY AT CHARLESTON

, TO DETERMINE WHICH ARE THE MOST LIKELY TECTONIC HYPOTHESIS FOR THE CAUSE OF THE SEISMICITY

, TO DISCUSS AND DETERMINE WHICH ARE THE MOST PROMISING METHODS OF INVESTIGATION FOR TESTING THE VARIOUS HYPOTHESIS-SEPT.,1983:

. PROGRAM DESIGNED TO TEST MOST LIKELY TECTONIC '

HYPOTHESES FOR SEISMICITY 4

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RAMAP0 FAULT ZONE STUDY:

, TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A SPATIAL AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MES0 ZOIC AND OLDER FAULTS AND CURRENT SEISMICITY

, TO DETERMINE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FAULTS OF THE RAMAP0 FAULT SYSTEM AT DEPTH

, TO TEST THEORIES THAT E RTHQUAKES ARE CAUSED BY:

(1) REACTIVA.TED BASEMENT FAULTS Ill.

PROTER 0 ZOIC ROCKS (2500-600 MILLION YEARS OLD)

(2) REACTIVATED FAULTS ASSOCIATED WITH TRIASSIC BASINS (240-205 MILLION YEARS AGO)

(3) LISTRIC FAULTS ASSOCIATED WITH DECOLLEMENT TECTONICS i

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. CENTRAL-VIRGINIA SEISMIC ZONE:

, TO DATE THERE HAVE BEEN RESULTS SUGGESTING A CORRELATION BETWEEN NORTHEAST TRENDING THRUST FAULTS AND INSTRUMENTAL SEISMICITY.

. THE RESEARCH IS TO VERIFY IF THERE IS A RELATION-SHIP, OR IF SOME OTHER TECTONIC MODEL, SUCH AS HIGH ANGLE REVERSE FAULTS, IS MORE APPROPRIATE, 1

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GILES COUNTY SEISMIC ZONE, VIRGINIA-

, TO VERIFY IF THE NORTHEAST TRENDING LINEAR ZONE OF SEISMICITY IS A SOURCE ZONE BENEATH THE DECOLLEMENT

, TO DETERMINE IF THIS ZONE REPRESENTS A NORTHEAST TRENDING NORMAL FAULT .

ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING 0F THE PROTO-ATLANTIC IN THE LATE PROTER 0 ZOIC AND EARLY PALE 0 ZOIC (800-500 MY AGO) 4

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'NEW ENGLAND

, CONTINUE WORK ON DETERMINING CHARACTERISTICS AND POSSIBLE CAUSAL MECHANISMS OF THE NEP BRUNSWICK AND GAZA, N.H. EARTHQUAKES',

, CONTINUE WORK ON RECENT CRUSTAL MOVEMENTS ALONG THE C0AST OF MAINE SUCH AS THE SUBSIDENCE AT PASSAMAQU0 DIE BAY

, TO DETERMINE TBE IN-SITU STRESS AT HYP0 CENTRAL DEPTHS FOR THE EARTHOUAKES AT M00DUS, CONNECTICUT, 9*B 4

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IMPLEMENTATION OF RESULTS OF DETERMINISTIC STUDY

. IMPACT OF DETERMINISTIC RESEARCH ON OPERATING PLANTS IN EASTERN SEAB0ARD WILL BE DETERMINED BY NRR STAFF L , STAFF WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY TECTONIC STRUCTURES NOT PREVIOUSLY ADEQUATELY STUDIED, SHOULD BE ANALYZED BY UTILITIES

. STAFF WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE DETERMINISTIC

. FINDINGS WARRANT ANY REASSESSMENT OF CONCLUSIONS DRAWN FROM PROBABILISTIC STUDY, l

. STAFF WILL RECOMMEND FURTHER RESEARCH DEPENDING ON RESULTS TO DATE, 3 -w- -en ----. .,... -, .r .,-~,.---m ,- _,-.,,,w,,.4 _ . - , , , -- - , ,- _ ---r,- ,--.a ~w. .----w , m.- -~ - . ~ ~ - - , - - w

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RELATIONSHIP TO PROBABILITY STUDY EXAMPLES: IF LARGE EARTHOUAKES ARE CAUSED BY:

A. DECOLLEMENT (LARGE EARTHOUAKES NOT RESTRICTED)

, CHARLESTON EARTHOUAKE CAN OCCUR ANYWHERE IN EASTERN SEAB0ARD

, DETERMINISTIC ASSESSMENT IS RELATIVELY LESS IWCRTANT

B. HIGH ANGLE FAULTS (LARGE EARTHOUAKES RESTRICTED TO CERTAIN STRUCTURES)

. LARGE EARTHOUAKES WOULD BE ASSUMED WHEREVER SUCH STRUCTURES OF 'SIGNIFICANT SIZES ARE~ LOCATED "~-

, DETERMINISTIC ASSESSENT IS Iff0RTANT

, THIS WOULD ALSO BE TRUE OF MAFIC INTRUSIVES,

t. INTERSECTING FAULTS, ETC, C. CHARLESTON TECTONICS SE UNIQUE (LARGE EARTHQUAKES WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE CHARLESTON AREA) i

, DETERMINISTIC ASSESSMENT IS VERY IMPORTANT l

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SHORT M PROPABILISTIC ASSES 9W 4 y ...e+*

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.lSSLE CAUSE 71886 CHARLESTON EARTl0UAKE t0T WELL UNDERSTOOD AFTER YEARS OF EFFORT UNCERTAINTIES ME EING fGE EXPLICIll.Y RECOGNIZED .

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CFARI FRTON NYPOTWSFR ,

- MAFIC PLATONS

- HIGH-ANGLE REVERSE FAlLTS

- CHARLESTON-TYPE BASEf91T

- INTERSECTING STRUCTURES

- ECOLLEENT

- WOODSTOCK, ASH.EY RIWR FAULTS

- ONSHORE EXTENSION OF TFSHORE FRACTURE ZONE

- OLD RIFT SYSTEMS

- OlFRTION CAN TRADITION 4. ititF?lINISTIC APPROACES=(SRP) EAll WITH THIS --

PRORBi AT THIS TIfE?

_. PROBABILISTIC ETHODS ARE f0RE APPROPRIATE

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GFSTION

- TAKING UNCERTAltff1ES INTO ACCOUNT, PAW LICENSING ECISIONS FOR PLAffiS IN TE EASlERN SEAB0ARD (I e., IN TE REGION AHtuw BY THE USGS CLARIFIED POSIT 0N ON TE CHARLESTON EARTHQUAKE)

RESULTED IN ACCEPTABLE LEWLS OF ASSIMD SEISMIC PA73RD (EXPOSURE TO EARTHQUAKE GROUND t0 TION) AT TE INDIVIDUAL SITES?

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4 ACCFPTAPI F ! FW1 & TT91TC SA7ARD NOT BPLICITLY EFItED IN PROBABILISTIC TERMS ASSlPE THAT PROPABILITY I SEISMIC GOUND MOTION EXCEEDING I SIGN LENELS IPPLICITLY ASSOCIATED WITH LICENSItG I CISIONS ELSB ERE EAST & ROCKY M0UtEAIN ISAIQUATE.

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4 EXA91E PROBABILITIES T EXCEEDING ESIGN LEVEL GROUND NTION FOR All PLANTS EAST T R00(Y muNTAINS PRIMARY TOOL - LPDAlED LLNL STUDY ADDITIONAL ItPlfTS (T0 TE EXTENT AVAILAHB USGS SENSITIVITY STUDY ON HYP0TESES ERTEC STUDY ON LONG RETURN PERIODS IND'JSTRY SPONSORED STUDY

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LDL STUDY - SFTSMIC HA7ARD CHARACTERI7ATt0hYTF E5STFRA'Ui

- ORIGIfR STUDY - NIREG/CR-1582

- ORIGItM. NRC REVIEW - NUREG-0967

- ORIGIfR APPLIES TO SEP PLANTS AND SELECTED CL REVIEWS IN MIDWEST AND f0RTEAST

- IIPRO\E EiTS TREATPENT OF SYSTB% TIC AND RANDOM ERROR TREATP91T OF SITE EFFECTS I

50 LICITATION OF EXPERT ItPlfT l GROUNDMOTIONMDELS ALL OF AREA EAST OF ROCKIES TO E C0WRED l

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RF91 TS IINTIFY PLATS (IF ANY) IN EASTERN SEAB0ARD AT WHICH PROPABILITY

& EXCEEDING DESIGN LEWL 80UtlD MOTION IS 8 EATER TFAN OTER LOCATI0f6 INITIAL CONCLUSIONS - MARCH 1984 FINAL CONCLUSIONS AND FEED FOR FURTHER EVALUATION - SEPTEMEER 1984

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@0lND mTT0fl STlFN PARALEl. STUDY TFRU LDL TO ETTER ESTIMATE MOUND [0 TION '

FROM A l#E EART100AKE TE SIZE 7 TE 1886 0%RESTON DENT l D

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