ML20125C305
| ML20125C305 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 08/28/1979 |
| From: | Ahearne J NRC COMMISSION (OCM) |
| To: | Gilinsky V, Hendrie J NRC COMMISSION (OCM) |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20125C287 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8001080338 | |
| Download: ML20125C305 (3) | |
Text
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August 28, 1979 lF Fl::E OF THE CMMiSSIONE R
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..,g MEMORANDUM FOR:
Chairman Hendrie j
Commissioner Gilimky
, Commissioner Ken > %
Commissioner Bradford h
FROM:
John Ahearne
SUBJECT:
ACCIDENTCONSIQUENCEMITIGATIONSTRATEGIES The staff recently supplied me with answers to some questions raised ~by Frank von Hippel concerning the use of KI.
In his comments pry their answers, Frank points out:
The [NRC] staff memo suggests that, "for doses g
greater than 1 rem to the thyroid it may be better to evacuate the population than to distribute KI."
It then goes on to discuss an EPA study which "has shown th.at masses of up to 150,000 persons have been evacuated safely in disasters" (p. 3)....
To illustrate the scale of distances involved, I do a simplified calculation in the Appendix [ attached]
which shows that, for 1131 releases of the order of ten cercent from a 1000Mw(e) reactor, thyroid doses coulo be above'l rem for hundreds of miles downwind.
3 Except for coastal sites where the plume is blown out to sea, the pc;ulation which would have to be evacuated according to the staff's criterion would ba on the order of one million over an area of thousands of square miles.
If the plume blew towards an urban area (e.g., towards New York City from Three Mile Island), the population which the staff,would propose to evacuate would be on the order of 10 million.
The logistics of this effort with shif ting winds, un-trained personnel, and limited transportation capa-bilities boggle my mind.
I would suggest that the staff be asked to work out a plan which would make their strategy credible assuming a 10% release to the atmosphere of the radiciodine in the TMI 1 core.
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nndi' They should include a discussion of the number
, i' of people and areas which would have to be evacuated for various wind speeds and directions and the amount of time which would be available to accomplish these evacuations.
He then proposed the NRC l,,
" develop accident consequence mitigation strategies beyond the evacuation of populations 10-25 miles downwind.
I would urge the NRC to give high priority to the initiation of a policy study on consequence mitigation strategies including people 4
f rom the NRC, FDA, states, (California has already i :
had a task force study the subject), and outside technical critics of the status _ guo."
I believe this is a sound proposal and request your support.
Attachment cc:
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MEMOPANDUM FOR:
Chairman Hendrie Commissioner Gilinsky
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. Commissioner Kennedy Commissioner Bradford FROM:
JohnAhearneS 4
SU30ECT:
ACCIDENTCONShQUENCEMITIGkfl$ STRATEGIES
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.h The staff recently supplied me with answers to some questions raised 'by Frank von Hippel concerning the use of KI.. In his comments pry y
their answers, Frank points out:
The [NRC] staff memo suggests that, "for doses g'
greater than 1 rem to the thyroid it may be better to evacuate the population than to distribute KI."
It then goes on to discuss an EPA study which "has shown th.at masses of up to 150,000 persons have been evacuated safely in disasters" (p. 3)....
1 To illustrate the scale of distances involved, I do a simplified calculation in the Appendix [ attached]
which shows that, for I 31 releases of the order of j
1 ten cercent from a 1000Mw(e) reactor, thyroid doses could be above'l rem for hundreds of miles downwind.
Except for coastal sites where the plume is blown out tL-sea, the population which would have,to be evacuated according to the staff's criterion would be on the order of.one million over an area of thousands
^
of squ~are miles.
If the plume blew towards an urban 1
_,'T.1, ~arei.(e.'g.,..towaFds New York C'ity f rom Three Mil e
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Island), the population which the staff,would propose 4
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to evacuate would be on the order of 10 million.
The logistics of this ef'^rt '. it" :hi3tir.g winf.s, ur-
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The;. sh:uld include a ' discussion of the number of p3:ple and areas which would have to be eva:unted for various wind speeds ar.d directions JJ and the amcunt of time which would be available to accccplish these evacuations.
He then prop 3 sed the i;RC l,
" develop accident consequence mitigation strategies beyond the evacuation of populations 10-25 miles i
downwind.
I would urge the tiR*. to give high priority t'o the initiation of a policy study on consequence mitigation strategies including people from the (1RC, FDA, states, (California has already had a task force study the subject), and outside technical critics of the status ouo_."
I believe this is a sound proposal and request your support.
Attachment cc:
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Sandit Laboratory Prepared for U. S. Nuclear Regulatc,ry Commission 90009281 l
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