ML20113D802
| ML20113D802 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Clinton  |
| Issue date: | 12/31/1984 |
| From: | HMM ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20113D779 | List: |
| References | |
| 84-666, NUDOCS 8501230235 | |
| Download: ML20113D802 (100) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:- - E N p Em Im I Evacuation Time Estimates for the Clinton Power Station : Plume Exposure Pathway , mergency Planning Zone
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7" W .V l - DECEMBER 1984 jf Clinton, Illinois IP Prepared for: ILLINOIS POWER COMPANY ,1 Prepared by: HMM Associates, Inc. Concord, Massachusetts hk 8501230235 050118 PDR ADOCK 05000461 M F PDR
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s' EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE CLINTON POWER STATION
'\
\ ' PLUME EXPOSURE PATHWAY
, EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE 4-( :
hMM Document No. 84-666 1 : l December 1984 Prepared for:' , ILLINOIS POWER. COMPANY Clinton, Illinois i Prepared by:'
. -hMM ASSOCIATES, INC.
336 Baker-Avenue. Concord, Massachusetts 01742 e e
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page
- 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1 1.1 _ General 1-1
- 1. 2 Site Location and Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency. Planning Zone (EPZ) 1-2
- 2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 2-1 2.1 Sources of Data ,
2-1
- 2. 2 General Assumptions 2-2 2.3 Summary of Methodology 2-3
- 2. 4 Conditions Modeled 2-6
- 3. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIM ATION 3-1 3.1 Permanent Residents 3-1
- 3. 2 Seasonal Residents 3-4
- 3. 3 . Transient Population 3 -4 3.4 Special Facilities 3-8 3.5 Evacuation Analysis Study Area
~
Population Totals 3-8
- 4. ThE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK 4-1
^
4.1 Network Definition 4-1
- 4. 2 Evacuation Route Descriptions 4-2 4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network 4-9
- 5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY 5-1 5 .1- Evacuation Analysis Areas 5-1 5.2 Adverse Weather Conditions 5-2 5.3 Initial Notification 5-3 5.4 Evacuation- Preparation Times and Departure Dis tributions- s-3
'5. 5 Eva cua tion' Simula tion 5-7 666/4619C 1 - -
z-TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page
- 6. ANA(YSISOFEVAJUATIONTIMES 6-1 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary 6-1
-7. SUPPLEMENTAL AN ALYSES 7-1 7.1 General 7-1 7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations 7-1 7.3 Evacua' tion Traf fic Management Loca tions and Other Potential Mitigating Measures 7-1 REFERENCES R-1 APPENDIX 1 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND Al-1 VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIM ATES APPENDIX 2 SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND A2-1 VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES APPENDIX 3 TR ANSIENT POPULATION AND YEHICLE A3-1 DEMAND ESTIMATES
~
APPENDIX 4 .SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIM ATES A4-1 APPENDIX 5. -TR ANSIEN T AND SPECIAL FACILITIES LOCATION M APS A5-1 APPENDIX 6- ROADW AY NETWORK LISTING AND C APACITIES A6-1 APPENDIX 7 -VEHICLE QUEUEING DURING SELECTED A7-1 PERIODS FOR EVACUATION OF THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ UNDER WINTER WEEKDAY AND SUMMER WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS - 666/4'619C m .
LIST OF FIGURES
. Figure Page_
.j 1.1 , , - Clinton Power Station Site Vicinity 1-3
- 1. 2 ' Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ Boundaries and Sub-Areas 1-6 2.1 NETVAC Simulation Flow Diagram 2-7 3.1 1980 Permanent Resident Populat;on Within the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ 3-3
- 3. 2 Seasonal Resident Population Within the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ 3-5
- 3. 3 Transient Population (Employees, Hotel / Motel Guests and Visitors to Recreational Areas)
Within the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ 3-7
~ 3. 4 Special Facility Population (School, Hospital, Nursing Home and Jail Facilities)
Within the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ 3-9 4.1 Primary Evacuation Routes 4 -3 4."2 - Sample Roadway Field Data Recording Forms 4-10
- 4. 3 Evacuation Roadway-Network 4-12 5.1 No ti fi ca tion /P rep a ra tion /M obiliz a tion Time Distributions 5-3 6.1. Cumulative Vehicle Departeres From the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ:
Winter Weekday, Fair Weather 6-12 ,
' 6. 2 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ:
Winter Weeknight, Fair Weather 6-13 6.3 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ: Summer Weekend, Fair Weather 6-14 666/4619C -lii-
~
E
e LIST OF FIGURES (continued) Figure Page
/
6.4 . ' Cumulat'ive Vehicle Departures from the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ: Summer Weekday, Fair Weather 6-15 6.5 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the
, Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ:
Winter Weekday, Ad verse Weather 6-16 6.6 Cumulative' Vehicle Departures f rom the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ: Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather - 6-17 7.1 Access Control and Evacuation Traffic Management-Locations 7-4 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3.1 Population Totals. by Analysis Area 3-10 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary 6-2
'7.1 Access Control Locations for the Clinton Power Station Plume Exposure EPZ 7-2 666/ 4619C ' -iv-
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS HMM , Associates would like to acknowledge all those people and. agencies who~ assisted in the preparation of this report. We feel that the quality and completeness of the report has been enhanced through their consistent effort. Specifically, the Clinton/DeWitt County Emergency Service and Disaster Agency (ESDA) as well as the state of Illinois ESDA, which provided ongoing assistance in our search for accurate and complete data. Other agencies which contributed positively to our effort include the Clinton City Chamber of Commerce, the Illinois Department of Transportation, and the emergency planning staff of Illinois Power Company (IPC). l666/4619C -v--
e 1. INTRODUCTION
~- 1.1 General
,/
,vacuation E time studies analyze the manner in which the population.within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding a nuclear power plant site would evacuate during a radiological emergency. Evacuation time studies provide licensees and State and local governments site-specific information helpful to protective action
-decision-making. 1 The studies estimate, for officials who would
.make protective action decisions, the time necessary to evacuate the EPZ, and identify instances in which unusual evacuation constraints exist.
Evacuation time estimate requirements were developed in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island accident. In a letter dated November 29, 1979, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a request for information regarding estimates of evacuation times for various areas around nuclear power plants. In November of 1980, the NRC and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) published a revised version of NUREG-0654 entitled Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, November 1980) (Reference 1). NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 requires that each L nuclear power plant licensee's offsite emergency plan contain time' estimates for evacuation within the Plume Exposure EPZ, and Appendix 4 of'NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 provides detailed guidance on what must be included in an evacuation time estimate study. In response to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, Illinois Power Company (IPC) has retained HMM Associates (HMM) of Concord, Massachusetts to develop the evacuation time estimates for the Clinton Power Station EPZ. This report will be provided to State and County officials for their use in the event of an emergency.
-666/4619C 1-1
The evacuation time estimates have been developed using updated, existing population data and the NETVAC computer simulation model. The NETVAC program was developed specifically to provide evacuation time estimates and related information for use in emergency planning. Evacuation times have been estimated for various areas, times and weather conditions, as suggested by Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1. These evacuation times represent the times required for completing the following actions:
- 1. public no.tification;
- 2. preparation and mobilization; and
- 3. actual movement out of the EPZ (i.e., on-road travel time, including delays associated with vehicle queueing).
1.2 Site Location and Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) The Clinton Power Station is located in the Township of Harp, within DeWitt County, Illinois. The plant site is located approximately 7 miles northeast of Clinton City, 12 miles southwest of Farmer City, 22 miles south of Bloomington and 20 miles north of Decatur. A site vicinity map for the p Clinton Power Station is included in Figure 1.1. i The Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) is the geographic area surrounding a nuclear power plant within
.which the NRC requires advance planning for evacuation or other short-term protective actions in the event of a radiological 666/4619C 1-2
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Chicago J e South Bend i i INDI AN A l Springfield e A
- e Decatur indianapolis CLINTONr /
POWER i l ST ATION I w ILLINOIS \ f I Evansville I e f l
- O SCALE N samme- nummme- ,
0 25 50 75 100 MILES FIGURE 1.1 - CLINTON POWER STATION SITE VICINITY 4619C 13 l .
emergency. NRC regulations define the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ as follows: g Generally, the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ for nuclear power plants shall consist of an area about 10 miles (16 kilometers) in radius... The exact size and configuration of the EPZ surrounding a particular nuclear power reactor shall be determined in relation to local emergency response needs and capabilities as they are affected by such conditions as demography, topography, land characteristics, access routes and jurisdictional boundaries.* The Clinton Power Station EPZ encompasses land areas in four counties: DeWitt, McLean, Piatt and Macon. There are 15 townships entirely or partially within this area. They are as follows: Clintonia, Creek, DeWitt, Harp, Nixon, Rutledge, Santa Anna, Texas, Wapella and Wilson in DeWitt County; Friends Creek in Macon County; Downs and Empire in McLean County; and
' Blue Ridge and Goose Creek in Platt County. The Clinton Power Station EPZ boundary was defined following a detailed review of the demography, topography, land characteristics, access routes and jurisdictional boundaries in the area surrounding the power station. This review resulted in a determination that the primary. basis for EPZ boundary definition should be political jurisdictions or man-made features (e.g., highways, railroads, canals, etc.). This determination was made due to the fact that the EPZ does r.ot exhibit strong topographical features (e.g., streams, mountains, rivers, etc.) other than Clinton Lake across the middle of the area, which could consistently serve as boundary segments.
10CFR, Section 50.47(c)(2). The NRC provides further guidance for defining the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ.in NUREG-0654, Rev. 1. 666/4619C 1-4
Supportive evidence for the use of political jurisdictions to form the EPZ boundary is given by the strong bond between a
, given population and its political subdivision / city, town or township of residence. Furthermore, political subdivision boundarie's in the area of the Clinton Power Station have been very stable and are expected to maintain that stability. For this reason, political subdivision boundaries are highly appropriate when considering the establishment of a stable, long-term EPZ boundary.
Another reason for the predominant use of political subdivisions in defining the EPZ boundary is that many of the designated local response agencies (particularly fire and police departments) are structured on the basis of local political subdivisions and are established to serve these subdivisions. Designation of the EPZ along these boundaries simplifies many aspects of off-site emergency response planning and preparation. In cases where the local political jurisdictional boundaries were not reasonably near the 10-mile radius of the Clinton Power Station, attempts were made to use man-made features as a boundary basis. In such cases, highways were used as the basis for the EPZ definition. Figure 1.2 illustrates the boundaries of the Clinton Power Station EPZ. Beginning on the east, the EPZ boundary follows County Highway 4 (Deland/ Farmer City Blacktop) in DeWitt County and County Highway 5 in Platt County south from Salt Creek to the Goose Creek /Monticello Township boundary, excluding the Village of Deland. It then follows the Goose Creek / Willow Branch Township boundary for approximately seven miles to.the junction with State Highway 48. The EPZ boundary then turns southward along State Highway 48 for one mile before traveling westward for about seven miles along Macon County Highway 38 to the Friends Creek /Maroa Township line. It then follows this township line northward for about one mile to the DeWitt County boundary 7 (i.e., County Line Road). At this point, the EPZ boundary r- follows the DeWitt County boundary toward the west for approximately four miles before turning north along U.S. 666/4619C 1-5 e
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i.....................c.J...*/'"~"'s-"-4">'- i l 4 LEGEND SCALE IN MILES EPZ BOUNDARY N """"' SUB AREA BOUNDARY o 1 2 3 1 SUB AREA DESIGNATION
=""= COUNTY BOUNDARIES FIGURE 1.2 - CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ BOUNDARIES AND SUB-AREAS i
1 666/4619C 1-6
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Highway 51. It then continues northward along U.S. Highway 51 for approximately 1.5 miles until reaching DeWitt County
, Highway 11 (Kenny Road). From this junction, the boundary travels westward along rounty Highway 11 to the western border
.of Texas iowns'11p. It tnen follows the entire length of the
- western borders of Texas, Clintonia and Wapella Townships northward for about 11 miles until reaching DeWitt County Highway 9 (Waynesville Blacktop) in Wapella. The EPZ boundary then travels eastward along County Highway 9 for Pearly 3 miles before continuing northward along U.S Highway 51 to the McLean County line. It then follows an eastward path along the McLean County line for about three miles before turning northward for two miles along the Randolph/ Downs Township boundary in McLean County. The EPZ boundary then heads' eastward along State
. Highway 136 for approximately ten miles until its junction with Interstate Route 74. It then follows Interstate Route 74 in McLean County toward the southeast to the DeWitt County line.
' Finally, the Clinton EPZ boundary follows a southward path along the eastern. corder of Rutledge Township in DeWitt County before meandering eastward along Salt Creek to County Highway 5.
NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, further recommends that the EPZ be subdivided into Evacuation Analysis-Areas, as follows: Radius Area U about 2 miles four 90 sectors about 5 miles four'90 sectors U about 10 miles (EPZ) four 90 sectors about 10 miles (EPZ) entire EPZ Evacuation of the area out to two miles of the Clinton Power Station would be accomplished on a 360 U basis and would be included in the evacuation of any portion of the EPZ. Accordingly, only one 0-2 mile Analysis Area has been evaluated.
<= Evacuation Analysis Areas have been defined to correspond
'to the distance and sector designations listed above. In 666/4619C 1-7
addition, the geographical areas defined by that portion of-Dehitt, McLean, Platt ano Macon Counties within -the EPZ have been included as additional Analysis Areas. This resulted in 14 evacuation Analysis Areas (one 0-2 mile Analysis Area, four 0-5 mile . Analysis Areas, four 0-10 mile Analysis Areas, DeWitt County,'kcLean County, Platt County, Macon County and the entire EPZ). Evacuation time estimates have been developed for all 14 Analysis Areas under various seasonal and weather conditions ~ pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance.
~For evacuation and emergency response planning purposes, these Analysis Areas have been further divided into 30 Sub-Areas. The relationship between the evacuation Analysis Areas and Sub-Areas is summarized below:
Analysis Area Sub-Areas Included U
- 1. 0-2 Miles, 360 1 U
- 2. 0-5 Miles, 90 NW l and 2 0
- 3. 0-5 Miles, 9G NE 1 and 3 ,
U
- 4. 0-5 Miles, 90 SE 1, 4 and 5
- 5. 0-5 Miles, 90 SW 1, 6 and 7 0
- 6. 0-10 Miles, 90 NW 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 20, 21, 22 ano 23 U
- 7. 0-10 Miles, 90 NE 1, 3, 12, 13, 24 and 25 U
- 8. 0-10 Miles, 90 SE 1, 4 , 5, 14, 15, 16, 26, 27, 28 and 29
- 9. 0-10 Miles, 90 SW 1, 6, 7, 17, 18, 19 and 30
- 10. Cehitt County 1 thru 21; 26
- 11. McLean County 22, 23, 24 and 25
- 12. Platt County 27 and 28
- 13. Macon County 29 and 30
- 14. Full'EPZ All The Clinton EPZ Sub-Area boundaries have been identified and established based on demography, topography, land 666/4619C
- l-8 l
=
characteristics, access routes and jurisdictional boundaries.* - A description of the Sub-Areas within each county follows:
~4:
SUB-AREA 1 Includes the area within Harp, Creek and DeWitt Town ship s, in DeWitt County, bounded by the shore
/' of Lake Clinton on the South and West, and on the North and Northeast by the Harp Township Line to *'U. Highway 54 and East to County Highway 14.
SUB-AREA 2 Includes that portion of Harp Township, in DeWitt County, North of-Highway 54 and West of County Highway 21. SUB-AREA 3 Includes that portion of DeWitt Township in DeWitt County North of Highway 54 excluding DeWitt Village. SUB-AREA 4 Includes a portion of DeWitt Township, in DeWitt County, South of Highway 54 including DeWitt Village, West of Sta te Route 48, North of County Road 2400N and East of County Highway 15. SUB-AREA 5 Includes that portion of Nixon Township, in DeWitt County, North of County Highway 15 and West of i Sta te Route 48 excluding Weldon Village. SUB-AREA 6 Includes that portion of Creek Township, in DeWitt County, North of County Highway 15, excluding Weldon Springs S ta'te Park. SUB-AREA 7 Includes that portion of Harp Township, in DeWitt County, South of Highway 54 and West of the Western shore of Lake Clinton. SUB-AREA 8 Includes that portion of .Clintonia Township, in . DeWitt County, East of Highway 51, excluding the City of Clinton. SUB-AREA 9 Includes that portion of Wapella Township, in DeWitt County, East of Highway 51, including the town of Wapella. SUB-AREA 10 Includes that portion of Wilson Township, in DeWitt County, West of County Highway 16. SUB-AREA 11 Includes that portion of Wilson Township, in , DeWitt County, East of County Highway 16. IMPELL Corporation established these boundaries for use in developing County Radiological Emergency Response Plans (RERPs) for the Clinton Power Sta tion EPZ.
~666/4619C 1-9 b
SUB-AREA 12 Includes that portion of - Rutledge Township, in DeWitt County, West of County Highway 8.
, SUB-AREA 13 Includes that portion of Rutledge Township, in DeWitt County, East of County Highway 8.
SUB-AREA 14 Includes that portion of DeWitt Township, in DeWitt County, South of Highway 54 and East of Sta te Highway 48. SUB-AREA 15 Includes that portion of Nixon Township, in DeWitt County, East of S ta te Highway 48, including the Village of Weldon. SUB-AREA 16 Includes that portion of Nixon Township, in DeWitt County,. South of County Highway 15. SUB-AREA 17 Includes that portion of Creek Township, in DeWitt County, South of County Highway 15. SUB-AREA 18 Includes that portion of Texas Township, in DeWitt County, East of Highway 51 including Weldon Spring s Sta te Park. SUB-AREA 19 Includes that portion of Texas Township, in DeWitt County, West of Highway 51 and North of County Highway 11, excluding the City of Clinton. SUB-AREA 20 Includes the entire area inside the Clinton City limits. SUB-AREA 21 Includes that portion of Clintonia Township, in DeWitt County, West of Highway 51 and excluding the City of Clinton. SUS-AREA 26 Includes that portion of Santa Anna Township, in DeWitt County, West of County Highway 4 and South of Salt Creek. Mc LEAN COUNTY SUB-AREA 22 Includes that portion of Downs Township, in McLean County, West of County Highway 27 and South of Sta te Highway 136. SUB-AREA 23 Includes that portion of Downs Township, in McLean County, East of County Highway 27 and South of Sta te Highway 136. SUB-AREA 24 Includes that portion of Empire Township, in McLean County, West of County Highway 21 and South of S ta te Highway 136. 666/4619C 1-10
SUB-AREA 25 Includes that portion of Empire Township, in McLean County, East of County Highway 21 and South of State Highway 136 and Interstate 74. PIATT COUNTY_ SUB-AREA 27 Includes that portion of Goose Creek and Blue Ridge Townships, in Platt County, West of County Highway 5 and North of State Highway 10. SUB-AREA 26 Includes that portion of Goose Creek Township, in Platt County, West of County Highway 5 and South of State Highway 10, excluding the Village of DeLand.
, MACON COUNTY s
SUB-AREA 29 Includes that portion of Friends Creek Township, in Macon County, North of County Highway 38 and extending three (3) miles to the West of State Highway 48. SUB-AREA 30 Includes that portion of Friends Creek township, in Macon County, North of County Highway 38 extending one (1) mile to the East and three (3) miles to the West of County Highway 25. Figure 1.2 identifies these Sub-Area boundaries. State and local emergency preparedness of ficials have participated in the development of the Clinton Power Station EPZ and Sub-Area boundaries. FEMA has provided verbal confirmation of its acceptance of the EPZ boundary. i 666/4619C 1-11 l'
- 2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 2.1 Sources of Data O
In order to estimate evacuation times, a number of data sources were reviewed to develop the appropriate input required for the computer simulation model used for the analysis. These data sources included the following: o Population estimates were developed from (1) data presented in the 1980 Census of Population and housing (Reference 2), (2) a review of County highway maps and U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps (Reference 3), and (3) a telephone survey conducteo by hMM Associates during May and June 1984 (References 12 through 37). o The peak estimated employment level at the Clinton Power Station. o Roaoway geometric and operational data were collected by hMM Associates field crews during May 1984. County highway maps obtained from the Illinois Department of Transportation were also reviewed. o Roadway ano intersection approach capacities were calculated by the NETVAC computer model using
-algorithms developed from the Highway Capacity Manual'(Reference 4), and relationships identified in the Interim Materials on Highway Capacity (Reference 5).
O Preparation and mobilization times have been developed for each population sector. These times were based upon discussions with IPC and 4620C 2-1
State / County emergency services officials, on a review of site-specific characteristics of the Clinton Power Station EPZ, and upon a review of
'a v a i l a b l e e m p i r i c a l d a t a . Officials from tne Clinton/DeWitt County and Illinois ESDAs have participated in tne compilation and selection of tnese preparation and mooilization times, o Vehicle occupancy rates for the various population sectors were cased upon (1) discussions with County emergency services officials and representatives of the va'rious special facilities witnin the Plume Exposure EPZ; (2) permanent and seasonal resident nousenold size;and (.5) assumptions aDout occupancy of recreational and notel/ motel facilities witnin the EPZ.
-2.2 General Assumptions
~
Several. qualifying assumptions'were made during the course of tnis study, as outlined below; o The evacuation time estimates represent the time required to evacuate the Clinton Power Station EPZ and Analysis Areas within it, and include the time - required for. initial notification. o It is' assumed that suosequent to initial notification, all persons within the EPZ will evacuate. Evacuation of the EPZ will be considered complete after all evacuating vehicles are outside of-tne EPZ.
- o. The general puolic will De evacuated through Reception Centers to Host Areas outside of tne potential nazard area. Children from'all. schools 4620C. 2-2
within the-area evacuated will be transported directly to these Host Areas.
^o' The permanent population sector will evacuate from
' their places of residence. All households having more than one vehicle will only use one automobile.
This is consistent with empirical data (Reference 32) which inoicates that family members, where possible, prefer to evacuate as a unit. o It is. assumed that existing lane utilization patterns will prevail during the course of the evacuation. However, it is also assumed that appropriate County and State Police personnel will restrict unauthorized access into the EPZ. o Transportation for non-auto-owning households will be furnished through rides with neighbors, friends and' relatives, or through coordinated efforts by State and County emergency services officials. o Adverse weather refers to what is defined as a moderate snowstorm which would reduce roadway capacity and travel speeds by 30 percent during the winter, and a light-to-moderate rainstorm which . would reduce roadway capacity and travel speeds by 20 percent during the summer. (refer to Section 5.2 and Reference 7). 2.3 Summary of Methodology . The computer simulation model used to perform the
. evacuation -time estimate procedure is referred to as the NETVAC- ' pro gram . . This is.a proprietary computer program developed by hMM Associates 'in collaboration with Professor Yosef Shef fi of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Center for Transportation Studies. The model was developed specifically to provide evacuation time estimates and related information 4620C' 2-3
'for use in emergency planning. Tne NETVAC program nas the following characteristics which led to its selection for use in .- this study:
o The model accounts for tne detailed distrioution of vehicle demand. o Tne mooel considers fundamental physical and operational characteristics of the evacuation road network.
- o The
\
model accounts for the dynamic characteristics o of evacuation traffic flows. o The model provides thorougn documentation of results. o The model provides a means for examining a complex proolem in a structured manner. o The model can readily address fair weatner versus adverse weather conditions. o The.model can readily address evacuation scenarios occurring at different times of day. . o The model can readily. address changes in population which would be likely to occur witnin the EPZ at different times of the week and different times of year. o NETVAC nas been used for evacuation studies at'18 nuclear power plant sites. Its validity as a y prediction tool has oeen established in previous NRC proceedings. 4620C 2-4
-.m., . n n- -
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o 3 The NETVAC program is a traffic simulation model which uses traffic flow relationsnips to calculate and record traffic densities, speeds, flows, queues and other relevant information throughouI-the evacuation process. Traffic is first entered at designated points (entry nodes) in tne nighway network. At every simulation interval, tne model processes vehicles from links (road segments) entering an intersection to the links emanating from it-(outbound links or evacuation routes). The model employs a sopnisticated list processing method to represent the evacuation as a series of links and nodes (intersections).' The NET /AC'model includes a dynamic route selection feature wnereby drivers' choice of outbound links, at every intersection, is cased on two criteria:
- 1. The degree to wnich an outbound link leads away from tne plant, or the direction of specific evacuation routings whery sucn plans exist.
- 2. Tne traffic conditions on the autoound links (i.e.,
travel speeds and presence of vehicle queueing or congestion). The roadway and intersection approacn capacities calculated oy the NETVAC program are cased upon data and traffic flow relationsnips cresented in the Hignway Capacity Manual'and tne Interim Materials on Hignway Cacacity . Due to the dynamic route assignment mechanism, approacn capacities are updated at each simulation interval to account for potential changing turning movements. The intersection _ control options wnich can be specified with the NETVAC model include intersections witn traffic signals and priority control intersections (i.e., stop or yield signs). The core >of tne NETVAC program is the simulation suoroutine. This part'of the program executes.a given number of' procedures at user-specified simulation intervals. The i t. i- ;447nn 2-5
o simulator includes two major logical units: the link pass and the node pass. The link pass calculates the number of vehicles that would reach the upstream node or join the queue there in a
.- - given simulation interval. The node pass calculates how many vehicles sh'ould be processed from each of the links entering a particul$rintersection (inbound links) to each of the outbound links. Figure 2.1 schematically represents the interrelation-ship between the link pass and node pass simulation procedures.
A more detailed description of the NETVAC program is described in Section 5.4. 2.4 Conditions Modeled Pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for several temporal, seasonal and weather conditions. Estimates have been prepared for winter day fair and adverse weather conditions, a winter night fair weather condition, a summer weekday fair weather condition, and summer weekend fair and adverse weather conditions. Fair weather refers to conditions where roadways are clear and dry, and visibility is not impaired. Adverse weather is defined as a snowstorm during winter periods where roadway capacities are reouced by 30 percent and a sudden rainstorm during summer periods where capacities are reduced by 20 percent (Reference 7). The.various population components which have been incorpo- - rated in the evacuation conditions modeled are summarized below:
- 1. Winter Day: This situa tion represents a typical day pericd during the winter when school is in session and the work force is at full daytime levels.
Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following: I o Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their place of residence; 4620C 2-6
NODE POSS r------------------------ 7 I cursou o u== cuanacreaistics' outsouao um= co=oirions l l .............., . ...... + -- l_ ,
..i,........., . . .. n . u . . g l ;
I I I '
' I l
,- nocc - pas s l g l a . l l %.O r g1f ; I
-l I I I i=eou,,o u== ewaaacrea:srics i=sov=o u== co=oirions l l
. .. ,,.. +- - -l l ........i..
- a. l
- c l - ' o l l Flow f anNsFEa I .....,..w............... a " a "a * "* " * * * * = i+ ' *
- l l .......................i....
' " ~. a 1i *l ;
I l l l L_______________________J l LINK PASS I l ll r__________________________l l 1 l unn cuanacreaistics l l ! l una conoirions
....................... ,,,,,,,,, ,,,,, g _l l l **
.'"'.'.",.,i.... *
- a a'a' a' -*
l l l l l -1 I I I unu - pa ss l I I e ., I I +,u r 5$ / l l . l o l unestro una cosoirious ! l
- i. . . . .
................,i............b_y l . ......(... ..in ..i l
I I L___________________________a FIGURE 2.1 - NETVAC SIMULATION FLOW DIAGRAM 4620C 2-7 i
o Major work places are fully staffed at typical
. daytime levels; o The Clinton Power Station site employment is j,7 at a peak estimated daytime level;
- o Schools are in session; o The hospital, nursing home and jail are full; o Hotel and motel facilities are fully occupied; and o Recreational facilities are at peak estimated
. winter daytime levels.
- 2. Winter Night: This situation reflects a typical winter nighttime period when schools are closed and the work force is at nighttime levels. ' Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include tne following:
s o Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their place of residence; o Major work places are staffed at typical nighttime levels; o The Clinton Power Station site is staffed at a peak estimated nignttime level; o Schools are closed; o The hospital, nursing nome and jail are full; o Hotel and motel facilities are fully occupied; and o Recreational facilities are closed.
- 3. Summer Weekday: This situation represents a period wnen the work force is at a full daytime level, senools are closed and recreational facilities are open. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include tne following:
4620C 2-8 _ _ - - -___-______A
o Permanent residents witnin the EPZ will evacuate from their place of residence; "7 o Seasonal residents will evacuate from their place of residence;
, o Major work places are fully staffed at daytime
~
"~
levels; I' - o The Clinton Power Station site is staffed at a peak estimated daytime level; o Schools are closed; o Tne nospital, nursing home and jail are full; o iHotel and motel facilities are full; and a o Recreational facilities are at peak estimated summer weekday levels. 4 Summer Weekend: Tne summer weekend situation represents a daytime period when recreational areas are at peak levels. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following: o Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their place of residence; o Seasonal residents will evacuate from their place of. residence; o ' Major work places are at typical weekend levels; o The Clinton Power Station site is at a peak estimated weekend level; o Schools are closed; o The hospital, nursing home and jail are fully occupied; o Hotel and motel facilities are fully occupied; and o Recreational facilities are at a peak estimated weekend level. 462CC 2-9
- 3. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION
_The development of vehicle demand estimates for the Clinton Power Station EPZ consisted of two steps. The first step wa's the determination of the number and distribution of the population to be evacuated. The second step was the
~
determination of the appropriate number of vehicles required to evacuate each of the population categories. Federal guidance (NUREG-0654, Rev. 1) indicates that three population categories should be considered: permanent residents, transients, and persons in special facilities (such as school and medical facilities, nursing homes, etc.). The methodology used to develop the total population and vehicle demand estimates within the Clinton Power Station EPZ incorporates intrinsic double-counting. For example, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the identified employees within the area and visitors to recreational areas are also permanent residents within the EPZ. In addition, school children, treated as an independent special facility category, are also included in the permanent population estimates. Including this double counting of population, however, is.done intentionally to implicitly simulate traffic friction on the network due to travel home prior to the actual evacuation. In short, this technique double counts population, but more accurately reflects anticipated vehicle activity on the - evacuation network (e.g., where a child evacuates directly from school the rest of hic family will still depart from the residence, but with one less passenger in the car). In Sections 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4 population totals are presented for 22-1/2 U sectors, at one-mile increments for the Clinton Power Station EPZ. The population totals by Analysis Area are summarized in Section 3.5. 3.1 Permanent Residents Permanent residents are defined as those persons having year-round residences within the Clinton Power Station EPZ. 666/4621C 3-1 r -- - ,, -
Permanent population and housing unit estimates for the area were based upon data presented by the 1980 Census of Population
, and Housing and a review of County Highway and U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps. These data were used to develop population totals'and distributions within the EPZ. Figure 3.1 presents the 1980 permanent resident population by sector. The permanent resident population and vehicle demand data is presented in Appendix 1.
! 3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population
\
It was assumed that one vehicle would evacuate from each permanent resident household. This assumption is consistent with empirical data (Reference 8) indicating the tendency of evacuees to evacuate, where possible, as a family unit. The 1980 Federal Census data included information on the average number of persons per household for the various townships within the EPZ. These relationships were applied to the permanent population totals, to obtain estimates of the vehicle demand associated with the permanent resident population. Vehicle occupancy rates range from 2.4 to 3.0 persons per vehicle. 3.1.2 Non-Auto-Owning Permanent Population The 1980 U.S. Census of Population and Housing was used to identify the number of permanent residences without access to a vehicle. This information is presented at the end of Appendix 1. During an evacuation, transportation for all non-auto-owning households will be furniJhed through rides with neighbors or through coordinated efforts by State and County emergency services officials. The exact number of vehicles which would be required to evacuate this population category would vary based upon several factors, including the type and 666/4621C 3-2
T* b#i N 0-188H* 8"at ' nuw l ist 1 l 154 I , ,, , ,
- 's . ,
i
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==
re
.e I tez l
" I'
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* l412l
. p e,
~
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o*
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- ass p 3 e , ; ,~
w 0, P y e*. o.,* , o
, g 14 271 ,
, ,g 3 , ,
3 3 g_ i : 3' o a t" iu = = * ; a :: : l 177 l
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. # ' o'
+
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,* s. 'e
*, o ,, s ~
r wow # '* s * *
. ' ** J , eSe I43e21, . e g* *.' ,, o e' 'o I is7 l r, 24 4
#, 'S O ,
r, da #3 se g4 POPULAfl0le TOTALS
- r. 3 +' W SW. %::: T "42. %2
$ (N'- ' '
I sso I N as o
/
i 7so s-3 se rr e-7 asse seio 3-3 330 4:e 7-8 dato ii.03o SSw 88I 3-4 324 F4o e*9 822 it.482 l 278 l e l 14 2 l 4e es. ... e so eri isi3 l i., l so. 4o. is.s s i FIG'JRE 3.1 - 1980 PERMANENT POPULATION WITHIN THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EFZ 666/4621C 3_3
-" - . - - , a w y-- ----,----e. + - - , . - - - , - + - - - - -w-w, -r--e,
1 number of transportation resources available at the time of the
' ~
; . evacuation.. For the purpose of this evacuation time estimate
- >- . study, the same vehicle occupancy rate (i.e., one vehicle per
- household) developed ~for the' auto-owning permanent residents
--was used to develop vehicle demand estimates for the non-auto-
_ owning _ permanent residents.
~
This assumption was used since it _provides the most-realistic representation of evacuation traffic which would be generated from the non-auto-owning households, accounting for vehicles within the network following internal routes to collect non-auto-owning passengers. p s 3.2 Seasonal Residents , a,, ~The seasonal' population segment includes those residents 3 whoffreside-in the area on a temporary basis, particularly during.the summer! period. Seasonal residences are typically E'"'s -not' insulated'and are suitable for occupancy for only a portion Lof the year. -1980 s'eas'onal household data for the area were obtained.from the'U.S. Census of Housing. Seasonal resident
- l. . . r;m2
-0 popu'lation and vehicle demand estimates were developed from
((b ' average-household size and vehicle occupancy surveys conducted
'for this population segment by HMM Associates at other sites (Reference 9). Figure 3.2 presents the seasonal resident
' population,-by sector,'for theiClinton Power Station EPZ. The
-seasonal population within'each_ township was distributed based-ont a review-of U.S.G.S.stopographic maps and the location of areas'likely to have seasonal. land uses. The seasonal <
' ym p ~ population data along with the corresponding vehicle demand
~
Lestimates:for this population.. segment are presented in
. Appendix:2.
~ y. . ~
Trans'ient Population
~
3.3
.The' transient population' segment includes persons in the work force, motels / hotels, and recreational areas. Major workplace employee population estimates _were verified through a
,, J2 '
_(666/4621C. 3-4 L -
,, , ,", i o. un. am Nht
! 10 l [ o l e-i o i /
Ne l o n,
.l ,,
I o I / ENE gg I is l oos
) 9 = E 2 i l o l ... , '8' i 14 l I o I r,
POPULATION TOTALS o *
"? 17!. %:t "a? 7:!. %:t
'=
h ' *
** ..i . . ... . ,,
, 3=3 0 . 78 2F Si
,,, see s.4 is si e.e : ios
- I " l I o I ; , ; --
4.s i se e,- n.n o se is, io. o is FIGURE 3.2 - SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ i 666/4621C'- 3-5 s.
telephone -survey conducted by HMM Associates in June 1984. A listing of..all major industrial employers identified within the EPZ ano'a map identifying the location of these employers are presented in Appendices 3 ano 5, respectively. Data for the major hotels / motels and recreational areas within the EPZ were also verified through a telephone survey -conoucted by HMM during May and June 1984. A listing of major hotels / motels ano recreational areas within the EPZ is also presented in Appendix 3. Figure 3.3 presents the total . transient population within the EPZ in rose format. For purposes of estimating total vehicles associated with the transient population segment, an auto occupancy factor of 1.0 employee per vehicle was used for all employees except for the-Clinton Power Station. Based upon discussions with IPC officials, an average plant vehicle occupancy facter of 2.2 persons'per vehicle for each analysis scenario was used. hotel / motel and campground occupancy factors used were 1.0 vehicle per hotel / motel. room and 1.0 vehicle 9er camp site. Vehicle occupancy rates for other recreational areas were based on discussions with facility officials. These occupancy rates were developed for.an estimate of peak vehicle demand, where recreational areas and hotels / motels are fully occupied. The resultant vehicle demand.would be conservative for periods where occupancy of these transient population categories were lower than peak levels. The vehicle cemand associated with the transient population segment-is presented in Appendix 3 while their locations are presented in Appenaix 5. Some double-counting of total vehicle demand may be inherent in these estimates since a portion of the identified employees anc visitors to the recreational areas may also be permanent residents of the Clinton Power Station EPZ. However, this more accurately simulates traffic conditions on the network oue to employees or other transients traveling home prior to the actual evacuation. 666/4621C 3-6
N qmw l 98 l N Wie b 4 l 19 2 l N I O I l 2 l ne ' es w! le l 0 l www I ses I , ene l 172l pgeng see
$ ggtES e , .
- L I 321 l s
- f f [ l 683 l 5, ,
- 4 E
wow l 907 l, e,'o se Est
$ l5557l
'#o
#o POPULATION TOTALS "L' Io"I. hU.' d$.' . eI i , ,',", l , , 0-i re, ter e-e ....e i o ,.
[ 1-2 2.see 3.37 e.7 aos s o.e i s y 2-3 e.21 e e.s so 7-8 en 10.002 ssw 998 3-4 274 e,ese 09 250 1s.252 l 93 l 4-8 sto so.3 ra 0 10 2 10.254 10+ 376 te sas NOTE: Population total reflects e summer weekend peak population condition. This includes a weekend work force population so well During a weekday the work force populat6cn would be considerably hl0her. FIGURE 3.3 - TRANSIENT POPULATION (EMPLOYEES, HOTEL / MOTEL GUESTS, AND VISITORS TO RECREATIONAL AREAS) WITHIN THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ 666/4621C 3-7
m 3.4; Special. Facilities The special facility population segment includes persons in school, hospital, nursing home or jail facilities who may require special transportation considerations during an evacuation.
'The population (verified by HMM through a telephone survey
. conducted in June, 1984) and vehicle demand associated with these facilities is. summarized in Appendix 4. The vehicle demand for' medical and jail facilities was calculated based on 40 ambulatory persons per bus and 2 non-ambulatory persons per ambulance.. For s'chools, the vehicle demand was calculated based-on-60 students per bus and one staff member per vehicle (Reference 10). Figure 3.4 presents the special facility population totals, by sector, for the Clinton Power Station EPZ. Appendix 5 includes' maps locating these special Lfacilities within the EPZ.
-3.5 -Evacuation Analysis Area Population ~ Totals
. Table 3.1 summarizes the population totals, by category,
- for.each of the previously-identified Analysis Areas. These totals. represent peak population levels for permaneni residents, seasonal residents, transients and persons in special facilities. A description of the population within each Analysis Area follows:
Analysis Area 1-Analysis; Area 1 includes a portion of Harp Township bordered mainly by'Clinton Lake and a small portion of DeWitt
' Township. There are 142 permanent residents in Analysis Area'1 and'no seasonal residents. The work force population includes the employees at.the plant. .In addition, a peak population of 9421 at.various Clinton. Lake recreational areas exists during summer weekend periods.
666/4621C 3-8 r- .
.. i o i ,,,,
I o I a i o i I o I 1 1s I o I l 377 l / I o I Q\LLS
$ a listil 3 .
j i i o 1 I liolii i ' ',', i POPULATION TOTALS
$f Io"I. SN.* Y.' Io"!. h$
' o=1 0 0 S.e o o I
-l O j N o-
[ 1-3 0 47 803 eos
/ 3-3 o o 7-0 230e 2.c o e w y 88' 34 0 0 09 ste 3.s e r SS.
4*S 0 0 3 10 0 3.s e r l o l 10* O 3.287 FIGURE 3.4 - SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOL, HOSPITAL, NURSING HOME AND JAIL FACILITIES) WITHIN THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ 666/4621C 3-9 L
TABLE 3.1 POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS AREA l- ANALYSIS AREA 1 l l 0-2 Miles, 3600 l l- (Sub-Area 1) 1 l l l___________________________________________________________________________.i l- l l Winter Winter Surrrner Summer I i Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l 142 142 142 142 lPermanentResident l l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 0 l lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l l Schools 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 l Jail l l Work Force 3040 169 3040 169 l I l'ecreational g R 305 0 2543 9421 ; IHotel/ Motel 0 0 0 0 l I I I l 3487 311 5725 9732 I_ TOTAL POPULATION _________________ .. _____________________ ...______I . _______ .. l ANALYSIS AREA 2 ' l l 0 5 Miles, 900 NW l
-l- (Sub-Areas 1 and 2) l l l l____________ ___________________________________ ...________________________l l l l Winter Winter Summer Summer 1 -l-Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l I~ l 242 242 242 242 ' ,IPermanent Resident l l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 l Hospital'andNursingHome l l Schools 0 0 0 0 l I
I Jail 0 0 0 0 I I IWork Force 3040 169 3040 169 1 I
~IRecreational 305 0 2543 9421 I I IHotel/ Motel 0 0 0 0 l l l I 1 T 3587- All 5825 9832 I.OTAL POPULATION...._________________________________
_____________________________...__..._l 666/462LC 3-10 L
l l' TABLE 3.1 (continued) POPULATION TOTALS BY~ ANALYSIS AREA I ANALYSIS AREA 3 l l 0-5 Miles, 900 NE I l (Sub-Areas 1 and 3) l I i l_________________________________ ._________________________________________l l l l Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Category . Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l 181 181 181 181 lPermanentResident l l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 0 l lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l l Schools 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 I, l Jail l Work Force 3040 169 3040 169 l 305 0 2543 9421 l Recreational l l Hotel / Motel 0 0 0 0 l l l I I 3526 350 5764 9771
- l. TOTAL POPULATION. .
__.____________________________________________________________________l l ANALYSIS AREA 4 I i 0-5 Miles, 900 SE I I (Sub-Areas 1, 4 and 5) l l l
.I____________________________________________ ....___________________________l i I l Winter Winter Summer Summer I l' Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend i I I I I Permanent Resident 499 499 499 499 I I ISeasonal Resident. 0 0 0 0 l lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l
l Schools 0 0 0 0 l I I 0 0 0 0 l Jail l l Work Force 3040 169 3040 169 l l l Recreational 322 0 2682 9935 I I IHotel/ Motel 0 0 0 0 l I i lg TOTAL POPULATION 3861 668 6221 10,603 .;l 666/4621C 3-11
I y' TABLE 3.1 (continued) POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS AREA
~l ANALYSIS AREA 5 I l- 0-5 Miles, 900 SW i I (Sub-Areas 1, 6 and 7) I l I l_____________________________________________________________________________l l 1 I Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Category Weekday 'Weeknight Weekday Weekend l 519 519 519 519 lPermanentResident l
.lSeasonal Resident 0 0 16 16 l lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l
l Schools 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 I, l Jail l Work Force 3040 169 3040 169 l
=l Recreational 311 0 2617 9,695 l l Hotel / Motel 0 0 0 0 l-l' l I I
; TOTAL POPULAIION 3870 688 6192 10,399 ;
l~ ANALYSIS AREA 6 l l 0-10 Miles, 900 NW l 1 (Sub-Areas 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 20, 21, 22 and 23) ,l l l l____________________________________________________________________________l l l 1 - Winter Winter Summer- Summer l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l
'l l I
10,255 10,255 10,255 10,255 l Permanent Resident g
-l Seasonal' Resident 0 0 86 86 I I
.g Hospital and Nursing Home 286 286 '286 286- Ig l Schools 2593 0 0 0 I I I Jail 30 30 30 30 I I IWork Force 3717 506 3717 252 l l Recreational 305 0- 3043 9423 l
IHotel/ Motel' 129 129 129 129 l
- 1. l 17,315 11,206 17,546 20,461 lTOTALPOPULATION l 666/4621C 3_12 v__
i TABLE 3.1 (continued) POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS AREA
.I ANALYSIS AREA 7 l l 0-10 Miles, 900 NE l l (Sub-Areas 1, 3, 12, 13, 24 and 25) i l i 1 1 I I l Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Category Waekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l Permanent Resident 489 489 489 489 l
l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 0 l
'l Hospital-andNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l
=lSchools 0 0 0 0 l I I 0 0 0 0 l Jail. l l Work Force 3040 169 3040 169 l 305 0 2543
.l Recreational 9421-l IHotel/ Motel. 0 0 0 0 I l I
,ITOTAL POPULATION 3834 658 6072 10,079 l ANALYSIS AREA 8 I I 0-10 Miles, 900 SE l (Sub-Areas 1, 4, 5, 14, 15, 16, 26, 27, 28.and 29) l I- I i_-. ______________________ ...______________________________________________l l i I Winter Winter Summer Summer- I
- l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend I l l I
1696 1696 -1696 1696
.lPermanentResident g ~lSeasonal Resident 0 0 33 33 i Hospital and Nursing Home 0 0 0 0 l
l Schools 378 0 0 0 l I I Jail 0 0 0 0 I I
-l Work Force 3040 169 3040 169 l 328 0 2728 10,107 ~I, l Recreational .lHotel/ Motel 0 0 0~ 0 l 1- 1 I I l TOTAL POPULATION 5442 1865 7497 12,005 l
666/4621C 3-13
.n TABLE 3.1 (continued) POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS AREA l ANALYSIS AREA 9 l l 0-10 Miles, 900 SW l 1- (Sub-Areas 1, 6, 7, 17, 18, 19 and 30) i I I l -__________________________ ._____________________ _______________________ I I I
- 1. Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Pooulation Category Weakday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l I
1515 1515 1515 1515 lPermanentResident ; ISeasonal Resident 0 0 43 43 l lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l ISchools 0 0 0 0 l I I Jail 0 0 0 0 I I IWork Force 3040 169 3040 169 l l lg Recreational 311 0 3992 15,560 ; l Hotel / Motel 0 0 0 0 l l i 4866 1684 8590 17,287
; TOTAL POPULATION l l ANALYSIS AREA 10 l l DeWitt County i I (Sub-Areas 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, I 'l 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and 26) l .l._____....___________________________________________________________________l l l 1 Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend I l i 13,039 13,039 13,039 13,039 ~lPermanentResident l l Seasonal. Resident 0 0 156 156 l I I g
Hospitalland Nursing Home 286 286 286 286 g ISchools 2593 0 0 0 l
~I I g
Jail 30 30 30 30 g lWork Force 3717 506 3717 252 l l Recreational 334 0 4677 16,248 l 1 Hotel / Motel 129 129 129 129 l l 1 20,128 13,990 22,034 30,140 l
-lTOTALPOPULATION '666/4621C. 3-14
TABLE 3.1 (continued) POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS AREA l- ANALYSIS AREA 11 l l McLean County I
- 1 (Sub-Areas 22, 23, 24 and 25) l I I
-l _ __________________________________________________________________________i i l l Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l 182 182 182 182 lPe.manentResident l l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 0 l I
lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 g l Schools 0 0 0 0 l I I Jail 0 0 0 0 I I
.lWork Force 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 l Recreational l
-l Hotel / Motel 0 0 0 0 l l l I I 182 182 182 182 l_ TOTAL POPULATION _________________________________________________
'l ANALYSIS AREA 12 l
-l Platt County i I (Sub-Areas 27 and 28) l l l l____________________________________________________________________________l l l l ,.
Winter Winter Summer Summer l ll Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekday ~ Weekend l l- 1 I I Permanent Resident 260 260 260 260
.I I ISeasonal Resident 0 0 6 6 l I
Hospital and Nursing Home 0 0 0 0 g l l Schools 378 0 0 0 l I I 0 0 0 0 l Jail . l l Work Force 0 0 0 0 l
,IRecreational 0 0 0 0 l
IHotel/ Motel' O O O O l l l I I T 638 260 266 266 I_OTAL POPULATION ___________._____________________________________ 666/4621C 3-15 +. =
s TABLE 3.1.(continued) POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS AREA i ANALYSIS AREA 13 ! I Macon County i I (Sub-Areas 29 and 30) l l l l_____________________________________________________________________________l I l l Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Category , Weekday Weeknight Weekday Weekend l 102 102 102 102 lPermanentResident l l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 0 l lHospitalandNursingHome 0 0 0 0 l
- ISchools 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 l Jail l IWork Force 0 0 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 l Recreational l l Hotel / Motel 0 0 0 0 l l I I I TOTAL POPULATION 102 102 102 102 I I
'l ANALYSIS AREA 14 l l Full EPZ l I (All Sub-Areas) 1
-- I I l_____ _ ________________..___.._________________ .._____.. __________________l l- 1 l Winter Winter Summer Summer l l Population Cateaory Weekday Weeknight Weekday . Weekend i I l D,529 13,529 13,529 13,529 l lPermanenkResident l Seasonal Resident 0 0 162 162 l lHospitalandNursingHome 286 286 286 286 l
l Schools 2971 0 0 0 l I I Jail 30 30 30 30 l 1
- IWork Force 3717 506 3717 252 l 334 0 4677 16,248 l l Recreational l Hotel / Motel 129 129 129 129 l 1 1 I i l _ . $. _______.____...___ 1 I______ 1 $ ______ I __ __ 1____l 666/4621C 3-16
Analysis Area 2 A total of 242 persons reside in Analysis Area 2, which includes the area covered by Analysis Area 1 and additional portions of Harp Township. The transient population includes the same plant and recreational population located in Analysis Area 1. Analysis Area 3 Analysis Area 3 includes cortions of Harp and DeWitt Townships. The same transient population as that located in Analysis Area 1 is included in Analysis Area 3. In addition, a total of 181 persons reside in this Analysis Area. Analysis Area 4 Analysis Area 4 includes portions of Harp, DeWitt and Nixon Tcwnships. The only population center within Analysis Area 4 is DeWitt Village with a population of 237. Transient populations include the plant employees and a peak summer recreational population of 9935. Analysis Area 5 Portions of Harp, DeWitt and Creek Townships are included in this Analysis Area with a total permanent resident population of 519 and 16 seasonal residents. Employment population includes only the plant. Recreational areas have a total population of 9,695 during a summer weekend. 666/4621C 3-17
- u. . Analysis Area 6 Analysis Area 6 includes a total permanent resident population of 10,255. The City of Clinton, the largest population center within the EPZ (population 8014), is located in Analysis Area.6. With the exception of two schools, all special facilities in the EPZ are also located within this area, as well as all work force employees and hotel / motel guests.
Analysis Area - 7 Analysis Area 7 includes the area covered by Analysis Area 3, as well as Rutledge Township and a portion of Empire Township. There are 489 permanent residents in this area. All transients are those located within Analysis Area 3. Analysis Area 8 Analysis Area 8 covers the eastern ano southeastern portion of the EPZ and has a permanent resident population of 1696. There are 33 seasonal residents located in this area. Special facilities in Analysis Area 8 include two schools in Goose Creek with a population of-378. The transient population category incluoes the plant employees and recreational area users. Analysis Area 9 ' i
'{, All of Creek and Texas and portions of Harp and Friends Creek are located within Analysis Area 9. There are 1515 and 43, permanent ano seasonal residents within this area, respectively. Recreational areas include most of the Clinton Lake Recreational Area ano heloon Springs State Park with a total peak population of 15,560 during a summer weekend.
666/4621C 3-18 k - -
Analysis Area 10 Analysis Area 10 includes the-portion of DeWitt County within-the EPZ. There are 13,039 permanent residents ano 156
- seasonal residents within the DeWitt County portion of the EPZ.
Analysis Area 11 Analysis Area 11 includes that portion of McLean County within the EPZ. There are no transients or persons in special facilities within this area. The total population in Analysis Area 11 is 182, all of which are permanent residents.
' Analysis Area 12 s
The portion of Platt County within the EPZ is the area covered by Analysis Area 12. Aside from 260 and 6 permanent and seasonal residents, respectively, the only other population in this area includes 378 persons at :wo school facilities.
' Analysis Area 13 Analysis Area 13 includes the Macon County portion of the EPZ. The only population in this area includes 102 permanent residents.
Analysis Area 14 Analysis Area 14 includes the entire Clinton EPZ. There are 13,529 permanent residents and 162 seasonal residents within the EPZ, 96% of which are withir DeWitt County. The special facilities population includes 286 persons at medical
- facilities,.30 persons at the county jail and 2971 persons at school facilities. Most of these facilities are located in the' area of Clinton. City. The transient population includes 3717 E
d66/4621C 3-19 _ . - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ - - _ . . _ ~
.maj or work place employees duri ng a weekday, 3040 being employees at the Clinton Power Station. The remainder of the work-force.is located within Clinton City. Other transients include 129 guests at hotels or motels, located in Clinton City as well, and a peak of 16,248 recreational area users during a summer _ weekend. The majority of the recreational population is
. located at-the Clinton Lake Recreational Area and Weldon Springs State Park. The peak population within the Clinton EPZ exists during the summer period. A total of 30,636 persons are estimated during a summer weekend, with an estimated 22,530 persons during a summer weekday. Recreational area users make up a-large percentage of the total population within the EPZ.
- Ouring a winter weekday it is estimated that up to 20,996 persons are within the EPZ, and during a winter weeknight the total estimated population is reduced considerably to 14,480.
9 e 666/4621C 3-20
- 4. THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK 4.1 Network Definition In order to estimate evacuation clear-times, an evaluation of-the roadway network likely to be used by departing vehicles was undertaken in May 1984. In defining the evacuation roadway network, HMM relied heavily on several sources of inf o rma tion, including:
- 1) ,
County, local and USGS maps of the EPZ area;
- 2) Discussions with County law enforcement and transporta tion personnel, as well as with State and County ESDA officials; and
- 3) A comprehensive field survey of the Clinton Power Station EPZ.
Based on this data, an evacuation network was identified to be used for evacuation simulation-modeling. This network was reviewed with County ESDA of ficials. The traffic network elements considered in the evacuation modeling consist of the major streets and intersections within the EPZ. The major
. streets include roadways of the following classifications:
o Arte rial St reets. As characterized by continuity of travel; connecting business, population, or major recreation areas, and traf fic controls and geometric designs which enhance traffic flow and safety. Examples of main arterials are U.S. Highway 51 and State highways 10, 54 and 48. o Collector Streets are links between residential areas served by local roads and arterial streets. These are characterized by lower design standards and frequent stops at minor intersections. Examples 666/4622C 4-1
of collector streets include Birkbeck Road (DeWitt County Highway 21) dn Harp Township, as well as Long Road (DeWitt County Highway 15) and White Pigeon Road (DeWitt County Highway 5) in Nixon and Creek Townships, respectively. The smaller local residential roadways are not specifically
. evaluated as cart of the model simulation but are taken into account as.part of the vehicle loading process. The primary evacuation routings are indica ted on Figure 4.1.
4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions The primary Reception Center locations to be used by evacuees will be located in the cities of Bloomington to the north, Champaign to the east, Decatur to the south, and Lincoln to the west of the Clinton Power Station EPZ. .The primary evacuation routings were developed so as to permit a general radial travel pattern away f rom the Clinton Power Station, toward the Reception Centers. Descriptions of the major evacuation routes for each of the.previously identified evacuation Sub-Areas are outlined below:- Sub-Area 1 Local' routes to:
.cr Sta te Highway 54 to Interstate 74 East toward Champaign; o State Highway 54 West toward Lincoln; o State Highway 10 East.toward Champaign; o State Highway 10 West toward Lincoln; o DeWitt County Highway 16 North toward Bloomington; and a" , DeWitt County Highway 5 South toward Deca tur. ,
666/4622C 4-2
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' - ' i N - EVACUATION ROUTES 4
l FIGURE 4.1 (continued) - PRIMARY EVACUATION ROUTES IN THE CITY OF CLINTON i
Sub-Area 2 Local routes to : o State Highway 54 West toward Lincoln; o DeWitt County Highway 16 North toward Bloomington; and o DeWitt County Highway 10 West, to U.S. Highway 51 North toward Bloomington. ( Sub-Area 3 Local routes to: o State Highway 54 to Interstate 74 East toward Champaign; and o DeWitt County Highway 8 North toward Bloomington. Sub-Areas 4 and 14 Local routes to: o State Highway 54 to Interstate 74 East toward Champaign; o State Highway 48. South toward Decatur; and o -DeWitt County RR 70CN* East toward Champaign. Sub-A re as 5 and 15 o State Highway 10 or DeWitt County Highway 15 East toward Champaign; and a Sta te Highway 48 South toward Deca tur. Sub-Area 6 Local routes to: o State Highway 10 West toward Lincoln; and o DeWitt County Highway 5 or 18 (Weldon Springs Road) South toward Decatur. RR 700N identifies a rural route on the County section line grid system. l; 666/4622C 4-5
Sub-A rea 7 Local routes to State Highway 54 West toward Lincoln:
'Sub-Area 8 . Local routes to:
o U.S. Highway 51 North toward Bloomington; o U.S. Highway 51 No rth, to DeWitt County Highway 9 West toward Lincoln; o State highway 10 or 54 West toward Lincoln; and o U.S. Highway 51 or DeWitt County Highway 18 South toward Decatur. Sub-Area 9 Local routes to: o U.S. Highway 51 north toward Bloomington; o DeWitt County Highway 10 West, to U.S. Highway 51 North toward Bloomington; and o U.S. highway 51 North, to DeWitt County Highway 9 West toward Lincoln. Sub-Areas 10 and 11 o DeWitt County Highway 10 West, to U.S. Highway 51 North toward Bloomington; o DeWitt County Highway 10 to DeWitt County Highway 16 North toward 'Bloomington; and o DeWitt County Highway 16 North toward Bloomington. Sub-Areas 12and 13 Local routes to:.
-o DeWitt County Highway 10, to State Highway 54 to Interstate 74 East toward Champaign; and o DeWitt County Highway 9 North toward Bloomington.
Sub-Area 16 Local routes to: o DeWitt County Highway 15 Cast twoard Champaign; and a State highway 48 South toward Decatur. 666/4622C 4-6 w _ _ _ _ _. - - - --
S ub- A re a 17 Local routes to DeWitt County Highway 5 or 18 South toward Decatur. I Sub-Area 18 Local routes to: o U.S. Highway 51 or DeWitt County Highway 18 South toward Decatur; and o State Highway 10 West .oward Lincoln. Sub-Area 19 Local routes to: o U.S. Highway 51 South toward Decatur; and o State highway 10 West toward Lincoln. Sub-Area 20 Local routes to: o U.S. Highway 51 North toward Bloomington; o U.S. Highway 51 North, to DeWitt County Highway 9 West toward Lincoln; o State Highway 10 or 54 West toward Lincoln; o DeWitt County RR 000N West toward Lincoln; and o U.S. Highway 51 or DeWitt County Highway 18 South toward Deca tur. Sub-Area 21 Local routes tot o U.S. Highway 51 North toward Bloomington; o U.S. Highway 51 North, to DeWitt County Highway 9 West toward Lincoln; o State Highway 10 or 54 West toward Lincoln; and o DeWitt County RR 800N West toward Lincoln. Sub-Areas 22 and 23 Local' routes to McLean County Highway 27 North toward Bloomington. 666/ 462'4C *-7
L Sub-Areas 24 and 25 Local- routes to McLean County Highway 21 North toward Bloomington. Sub-A rea 26 Local routes to: o State Highway 54 to Interstate 74 East toward Champaign; and o DeWitt County RR 700N East toward Champaign. Sub-Area 27 Local routes to: o Platt County RR 2500N East toward Champaign; and o DeWitt County RR 700N East toward Champaign. Sub-Area 28 Local routes to: o State Highway 10 or Platt County RR 2150N East toward Champaign; and o Sta te Highway 48 South toward Decatur. Sub-Area 29 Local routes to Route 48 South toward Decatur. Sub-Area 30
-Local routes to Macon County Highway 18 South toward Decatur.
4.3 Characte rizing the Evacuation Network Af ter defining and mapping the links (roadway sections) and nodes (intersections) included in the evacuation roadway network, both physical and operational characteristics of the system were inventoried. Using both field studies and available maps, the geometric descriptions for each component of the network were compiled. Field data included the number of lanes, lane widths, shoulder widths, distances to obstructions, grade, cruise speeds, traffic controls and other 666/4622C 4-8
data necessary to calculate the traf fic capacity of each link in the system. Sample field data recording forms are presented in Figure 4.2. Link lengths were measured from available maps. Roadway geometric and operational cata for each intersection in the network was also collected. The data from these ef forts were coded and keypunched for input to the NETV AC model. The model, in turn, provides a listing of the evacuation roadway network and its characte ris tics. The network listing, presented in Appendix 6, describes the geometric characteristics of each link in the - network. The lis' ting also describes the possible turning movements from each node and the traffic capacity of each link in the network (vehicles per hour that can be accommodated on each link during an evacuation). The listing of geometric characteristics and capacities is provided by the preprocessor for.the NETVAC computer model prior to the actual evacuation simulation calculations. For the purpose of identification and for subsequently calculating evacuation times, the network has been coded into a system of 104 directional links and 70 nodes. The evacuation network which was used for the computer simulation, is shown in Figure 4. 3. The figure shows the locations and number codes for each node in the network. 666/4622C 4-9
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4 LEGENO sC ALE W MILES am.m mu EPZ BOUND ARY I - EVACUATION ROUTES o i a s h NETWORK NODES m e""'" COUNTY BOUND ARIES l l FIGURE 4.3 - EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK (EXCLUDING THE CITY OF CLINTON) 666/4622C 4-11
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N "V^C"^7' " "0"T"8 NETWORK NODES FIGURE 4.3 (continue'd) - INSERT 1 - EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK IN THE CITY OF CLINTON
- 5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Areas Pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for the area within 2 miles of the Clinton Power Station, for areas approximating 90 0 sectors
.from 0-5 miles of the station, and for areas approximating 90 U sectors from 0-10 miles from the station. In addition, estimates have been developed for each of the DeWitt, McLean, Platt and Macon County portions of the EPZ and for evacuation of the entire Plume Exposure EPZ. The-Analysis Areas have been defined to. correspond to various combinations of the previously identified ~ Sub-Areas. The Analysis Areas for which evacuation times have been estimated are listed below:
Analysis Area
-1. 0-2 miles, 360 0
- 2. ;0-5 miles, 900NW
- 13. 0-5 miles, 90 0NE
- 4. 0-5 miles, 900SE 5.: 0-5 miles, 90 0SW
-6. 0-10 miles, 90 0NW
- 7. 0-10 miles, 90 0NE
- 8. 0-10 miles, 90 0SE
- 9. LO-10 miles,-90 SW 0
- 10. DeWitt County
- 11. McLean County
~12. Platt' County _
- 13. .Macon County
- 14. Plume Exposure EPZ 666/4623C' '
i 5-1.
c' Time estimates have been prepared for (1) Winter Day, Fair and Adverse Weather Conditions,-(2) a Winter Night, Fair Weather Condition, (3) a Summer Weekday, Fair Weather Condition, and (4) Summer Weekend, Fair and Adverse Weather Conoitions, 5.2 Adverse Weather Conditions For the purpose of this study, adverse weather refers to what is defineo as: (1) a moderate snowstorm (i.e., snowfall greater than or equal to 1.0 in. ) during winter periods where roadway ~ capacities and travel speeds are reduced by 30 percent of normal weather capacity, and (2) a rainstorm (precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 in.) during summer periods where normal weather capacities and travel speeds are reduced by 20 percent. These adverse conditions were selected because they represent the most frequently occurring adverse weather scenarios within tr.e Clinton Power Station area during a given season of the year, as indicated in Section 2.3 of the CPS FSAR (Reference 11).- Moderate snowstorms have been shown to occur approximately 2 percent of the time (i.e., relative to the total number of oays in a year), while the adverse rain condition has been indicated to occur about 30 percent of the time. Evacuation time estimates were not provided for adverse weather: conditions such as flooding and tornadoes during the summer,.and severe snowstorms (i.e., snowfall greater than 6' Linches over a 7500 square mile area) during_the winter. These extreme weather conditions were not included as analysis cases because such events occur, on the average, less than once per year at the Clinton Power Station site. Specifically, severe winter storms have been shown to occur _approximately every 1.4 years in DeWitt' County. Tornado probability at the Clinton Power Station is .0031, which reflects an occurrence every 325 years (Reference 11). Since this' study addresses the most common adverse conditions, the 666/4623C 5-2
effects on evacuation times of extreme weather conditions were not evaluated. Moreover, during severe weather, the possibilityoof shel.tering, rather than evacuating, is likely to ,- tut . con side red . During severe snowstorms, for example, evacuation could not begin until roads are cleared. The l adverse weather conditions modeled in this study are intended to represent the upper (more conservative) limit where roads are passable but not in good condition. 5.3 Initial Notification The' EPZ ' surrounding the Clinton Power Sta tion has a notification system ~ consistent with NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 fguidelin es . This system -will be used by County and Sta te of ficials :to alert the population to turn on their radios and
' television sets. Pursuant ! to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, i notification messages will commence on the designated television and EBS radio stations - virtually immediately.
Within.15 minutes essentially all the population within the EPZ should have :been given an inf ormational. or instructional message. If. evacuation is deemed necessary, the timing of the order-to evacuate and notification measures will be controlled by the State and County _ emergency preparedness of ficials. They may choose:to' alert and. mobilize an emergency recponse work force to control and expedite 1 evacuation prior to the evacuation order.
~
5.4 Evacuatian Preparation Times and Departure Distributions
.It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate V-- -during .the minute initial notification pe riod. 'It is also
. assumed ;that_ there -will be a -minimum preparation / mobilization a
time of 15 minutes . for Ja11- population segments. Ac co rdingly , in the model simulations,. no vehicles begin to evacuate until 3
' 30 minutes following ' the initial-notification. Network _ loading
~ 666/4623C 5 s-distribution assumptions for the permanent population, Ltransient-population and special facilities are described below, and summarized in Figure 5.1.
-Permanent' Population
- Permanent . residents with access to automobiles will take varying' amounts of time'to begin evacuating. Some persons will leave as quickly as possible; most will take some time to
- prepare, pack valuables and clothes and then depart; and some will1 take added ' time to secure property bef ore departing . In
- addition, actual preparation and departure times may vary according to the-perceived severity of a particular evacuation order.
Based' upon a review of the site-specific characteristics ofLthe Clinton Power Station EPZ, a review of available empirical- data, 'and discussions with County and Sta te emergency services of ficials, it was assumed that there would be a two-hour period over which the permanent residents would begin
-to evacuate. ,ThatLis, permanent resident households would beginito evacuate between 30.and 150 minutes after.the initial notification.- It' was further assumed that 15 percent of the l permanent population would begin to evacuate - between 30 and 60 minutesLfollowing' initial notification,~40 percent would begin t'o evacuate between 60 and 90 minutes, an- additional 40 percent would b'egin?to evacuate between 90'and:120 minutes,Jand the remaining - 5 percent woul'd- begin to evacuate between .120 and 150
-minutes 1of.the initial notification.
Transient Population It<wasiassumed that~the work force would receive-initial ' ~
~-notification promptly._ It was :also -assumed that ' the majo rity of: the L workMforce would be released. expe'ditiously (i. e. , within
~
30 minutes 1 subsequent to notification). Discussions with local emergency: services officials-indicate that a maximum of 30
. e 666/ 4'62 3C u _5-4
5-5 OfZ99 . 1 Cumul:tivo % cf Population 8: ginning 13 Evacuata - j a w a, e e o o O o o o ' ' ' ' ' j L Notification Time . 1 U l 4 h n Minimum Preparation /Nobilization Thne i u- U Z O H-i
'*ncien,.
n #*let/On > l 5 $- d l 8 = O ! m e z s : [ he T
- :D 'i a m 4 8 w m -i w z F *_ *oo' >
- o e x , M :e o n -4 o- 3 - - o +o O y -4 a e 2 S~ #'er , *+f,, b o m a_o - e u-z T m - l w > < N m o 0 a M-
~4 C oI E I "*e+,, O '
z _. z d E m F T
" E m
N
- 3_ O I) w o :D z -
- C a d O
z 0) u S-
minutes may be needed for the work force to begin to evacuate.
'This preparation time would include the time required for -
securing businesses, shutting down active operations, etc. Therefore, it was assumed that the work force preparation / . mobilization times would be uniformly distributed over a 30-minute period. Discussions with local emergency services of ficials also indicate that this distribution would be reasonable for the other transient population categories within the Clinton EPZ, including hotels / motels and re c re a tion al. areas. Therefore, it was assumed that all of the transient population vehicles would begin to evacuate between 30 and 60 . minutes following initial notification. That is, vehicles associated with the transient population would begin to evacuate during a 30-minute pe riod , beginning 30 minutes subsequent to initial notification. Special Facilities It was assumed that special f acilities (i.e. , schools, the hospital, nursing home and jail) within the EPZ would also receive initial notification promptly. Based upon discussions with local emergency services of ficials, vehicle departure times reflecting notification / preparation / mobilization distributions, we re developed. Pursuant to discussions with ESDA officials, it was assumed that all public schools would be evacuated via bus to designated Host Centers. For school f acilities, it was assumed that up to a 90-minute period would be required to load students onto buses, subsequent to the 15-minute notification and a 15-minute minimum preparation pe riod. Ac co rdingly , school buses were loaded onto the evacuation network from the period between 30 and 120 minutes following the initial emergency alert. Evacuation of the hospital, nursing home and the DeWitt County jail would require additional time associated with preparation and transport of vehicles to the respective 666/4623C 5-6
.- facilities. Based upon discussions with County and State
~
emergency services personnel, it was assumed that these facilities would begin to evacuate between 60 and 150 minutes
- following the 15-minute notification pe riod. The re fo re ,
vehicles serving these special' f acilities would begin to evacuate between 75 and 165 minutes following the initial no tifica tion . 5.5 Evacuation Simulation Evacuations were simulated using the population and vehicle _ demand dist ribution da ta, evacuation network da ta, and evacuation preparation and departure time distribution assumptions discussed in previous sections. The actual simulated evacuations were performed using the NETV AC computer program. The following describes the general structure of the model and three of its major features: the dynamic route selection, the priority treatment of flow at intersections not having traf fic signals, and the roadway and intersection capacity calculations. General Structure The NETVAC program is organized in four basic units (procedures): the main program, the data. procedure, the preprocessor, and the simulator. This section briefly explains the functions of each of these units. ' The main program controls the entire execution. It starts by calling on the data procedure, which reads in the data and the execution ins t ru ction s , then calls in _the preprocessor which performs some-preliminary _ capacity calculations.- Next, the main program controls the simulation itself and the reporting of the network conditions.at specified intervals. This program also controls
' the' rest of the reports and the length of the simulation by terminating the program once the network is-empty.
666/4623C- 5-7 __ __ -- _ . _ _ _ . . - - _ . . . _ _ . _ _ . . - ~ _ .,- _ ._.. ,
The data procedure reads in the network, the parameters
'and the options to be used in the simulation. The data procedure performs a set of checks on the network to ensure connectivity and validity. It also performs a set of checks on the input data to identify coding errors. The data procedure also produces a set of warnings if unlikely (but possible) situations are encountered.
The- preprocessor procedure converts the physical description of each link into measures of capacity, speed and density. For each specified type of link, the preprocessor computes two types of capacity: o Section capacity - which is the capacity along the link regardless of downstream intersection rest rictions; and o Approach capacity - which is the capacity of the link to handle vehicles approaching the downstream intersection. Section capacities are associated with highway sections whereas the traf fic flow through intersections is controlled by
'the approach capacity. The NETVAC program computes both capacities since they serve dif ferent purposes.- The section capacity serves as an upper bound on the flow that can move along a link, restricting the number of vehicles that will reach the intersection during a simulation interval and the number of' vehicles that'can be loaded onto a link from the intersection. The approach capacity, on the other-hand, limits y
the number of cars that can actually move through the intersection. Vehicles that reach the. intersection but cannot move through itiare assigned to a queue, or back-up. The NETV AC simulator ' includes two separate procedures, the-link 1 pass and the node' pass. The link pass handles the flow on the links while the' node pass handles the transfer of flow from link to-link. 666/4623C 5-8
i Y
- Dynamic-Route Selection The NETVAC program does not use a pre-specified set of turning movements'at each intersection; instead, the turning movements are- determined at each simulation interval as a function lof the changing traf fic conditions and directionality
-of-the links. Drivers approaching an intersection are assumed
~
to'make a choice-of outbound (away from the intersection) links based on how fast this outbound link can get them to safety. This, . in turn, is a function of the direction of the outbound links-(away from the nuclear plant or hazard area) and the traffic-conditions on the outbound links.
- The: route selection procedure used in the NETV AC program reflects -the two above-mentioned choice criteria through a user-supplied " preference f actor" which is specified for each link and the speeds on each of the outbound links. In order to
. facilitate 1the explanation of the route choice mechanism, let
- PF) denote the preference f actor _ for the- j-th outbound link at some intersection. In other words, the relative 'a priori'-
preference.of link J is PF) 1/ PF k k where _ the sum goes over.all the links (k's)' emanating out of.the node under
' . consideration'(including.j). -The' choice probability, or the share: of drivers choosing an outbound. link j out of a given intersection' ~at (simula ted)~ time t, --P j (t), .is determined as a function of. the preference! f actors and the speeds on all the ~
outbound. links as:-
- PF x U j(t) 3 Pj (t)_ =
3 kPFk x : U k (t) ' where Ug (t) is ithe speed on link - j 'at time t. It-should be
'noted that driver- behavior .during_ an~ evacuation is assumed to:
- be . myopic -in - that l only , info rma tion rega rding the -immedia te
~
foutbound' links at each intersection'is assumed-to influence route choice-decisions.
~
l666/4623C ;5-9
The Priority Treatment Even under evacuation conditions, it can be expected that traf fic approaching an intersection without traf fic signals from certain links would- have the right of way over incoming traf fic f rom lower priority approaches. Since it is not clear
. that such priority would correspond to the existing
- intersection controls, the input to NETVAC includes a user-specified link priority parameter. This is a binary parameter indicating a primary or secondary priority of a link.
The volume of vehicles being processed (at every intersection and at each simulation interval) and transferred
' from inbound to outbound links is subject to several constraints which determine the ef fective capacity of the intersection. During the simulation, traffic coming in from all primary- priority links is assigned to the intersection first, -subject only to the intersection capacity constraints.
Lower priority traf fic, on the other hand, is rest ricted by both the capacity of the intersection and the effect of the higher priority traf fic. The capacity of the secondary priority approaches is a
~ function of.the gap acceptance behavior of the minor approach r
drivers and the headway distribution in the primary approaches' flow. In order to model the capacity of secondary priority approaches, a capacity allocation problem procedure is-
. utilized. -The secondary priority approaches emit t raf fic only
- under one of the following conditions: fi r st , if there is
- residual ~ intersection capacity f rom the primary priority
- traf fic, flow can be emitted into the intersection f rom the secondary priority road subject to the residual capacity constraint. Second, if the residual capacity is zero, NETVAC provides some small capacity for the lower priority approaches
- to allow 1for " sneak-in" ef fects. .
666/4623C 5-10
r
- Capacity Calculations The capacity of a transportation f acility is the maximum
- flow that can travel along the f acility. The NETVAC program dete rmines ' capacity in two stages : fi rs t , the preprocessor assigns a section capacity and an approach capacity to each link in the network. Second, approach capacities are upda ted continuously, throughout the simulation as changing turning movements affect the maximum volume of traffic' processed along each link into its downstream intersection.
The capacity. calculations are based on the Highway Research Board's Highway Capacity Manual. Following this re fe rence , the section capacity is calculated in the prepro-cessor for links with and without physical separation between opposing directions while the approach capacity is calculated as a function of the physical conditions (width, parking, turning. pockets, etc.), environmental conditions (area type, peak hour and load factors), traf fic characteristics (traf fic mix and percentage of turning movements), and approach type. The capacity of the i-th approach coming into an intersection at simulation intervel t, C (1 t) is given by : C1 ( t) =- C 1 x AL(t) x AR( t) where C f- is the standard capacity of link i calculated by.- the preprocessor and AL(t) and AR(t) are the correction factors for
' lef t and right turning movements, respectively.. These correction factors are a function of the percent of turning
- traffic, the approach width, and parking allowance, and do not apply' when- the turning traf fic is using special turning lanes or' turning pockets.
f 666/4623C -- 5-11
- 6. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary Evacuation time estimates for each of the evacuation Analysis Areas are presented in Table 6.1. These estimates represent.the total time for vehicles within the various evacuation Analysis Areas to clear the EPZ, and include the time required for notification, preparation and mobilization activities. The total number of people to be evacuated for each of the evacuation Analysis Areas was presented, by population category, in Section 3.
A summary of the simulated evacuation times for each of the Analysis Areas follows:
-Analysis Area 1--0-2 Miles (Sub-Area 1)
A large portion of the vehicles evacuating this Analysis Area during weekoay pericos are from the Clinton Power Station site. The Clinton Lake recreational area represents the origin of a majority of evacuating vehicles during a summer weekend. The estimated time to evacuate the population within this area
'is 155 minutes (2 hours, 35 minutes) for all time and weather conditions. The most significant portion of the total evacuation time for any time and weather condition is the maximum preparation and mobilization time associated with the permanent population. The only vehicle queueing which occurs under this case is along'the Clinton Power Station main-access road at the intersection of State highway 54. This queueing occurs primarily during weekday-conditions, when the plant is at its peak daytime employment level. The reduced roadway capacity ~ associated with the adverse weather conditions does not significantly affect the evacuation times since sufficient-capacity is available along area roadways to handle the peak vehicle' demands associated with the 0-2 mile area.
4624C' 6-1
TABLE 6.1. s EVACUATION TIMt. c.sl1NATE
SUMMARY
Total Evacuation Time (Minutes)1 2 l l Winter l Winter ! Sunmer l Summer i Winter 1 Sunmer# l l l Day, 1 Night, i Weekday, I Weekend, 1 Day, I Weekend, I l Analysis l Fair l Fair l Fair l Fair l Adverse l Adverse l Area IWeather l Weather l Weather l Weather l Weather l Weather l I I I i l I i i i 1. 10-2 Miles 1 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l l l l l l l l l l l 1 i i i i l i 1 l 2. 10-5 Miles, 900NW l 155 l 155 l 155 1 155 l 160 l 160 l l 1 i l i l I l l l _I I I I I I I i l 3.10-5 Miles, 90%E I 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l l l l l l l l l l l 1 I I I I I I I l 4.10-5 Miles, 900SE l 165 l 155 1 165 l 155 l 170 l 155 l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l 1 I l l 5.10-5 Miles, 900SW I 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 160 1 160 l I i l i i i i l i I I I I I I I I l l 6. 10-10 Miles, 900 W N l 180 1 180 1 180 l 180 l 215 l 185 l i I I I I I I I l l l. I I I I I I l l 7.10-10 Miles, 909E I 160 1 160 1 160 1 160 1 160 1 160 l 1 l I I I I I I I I i - 1 i l I i l l l 8.10-10 Miles, 900SE I 170 1 160 1 170 l 160 l 175 l 160 l l l l 1 1 I I I I
.I I I I I I I I I I 9.10-10 Miles,- 90oSW I 160 l 160 l 160 1 160 l 165 l 165 l l l l l l l l l l l . I i i i i i i i
- 10. IDeWitt Conty l 180 1 180 1 190 1 195 1 225 l 230 l i I I I I I I l l l l l l l 1 I i 111. IMcLean County l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i 112. IPiatt County l 155' l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l 155 l l l l l l l 1 1 I I I I I I I I I i
-113. IMacon County l 15 5 l 155 l 155 1 155 l 155 l 155 I I I I I I I I I I l i I I I I I i l 114. IFull EPZ l 180 1 180 l 190 1 195 l 225 1 230 l l l (180)4 I l l (195)4 I I I l- 1 I I I I I i
- 1. All residents, transients and special facilities within the evacuation analysis area would be evacuated. Time estimates are rounced to the nearest 5-minute period, and include times associated with notification, preparation, and mobilization events.
- 2. Moderate snowstorm adverse weather, represented by a reduction in roadway capacity and travel speed of 30 percent.
- 3. Light-to-moderate rainstorm represented by a reduction in roadway capacity and travel speed of 20 percent.
- 4. Numbers in parentheses indicate evacuation time estimates assuming the Clinton By-Pass in full operation and Route 51 widened to four lanes, two in each direction.
4624C 6-2
, Analysis Area 2--0-5 Miles, 90 NW (Sub-Areas 1 and 2)
Evacuation of Analysis Area 2 (Sub-Areas 1 and 2) out to five miles frcm the plant would include mostly vehicles associated with the Clinton Power Station, as well as a large summer weekend transient recreational population at Clinton Lake. The permanent resident population would be only nominally higher (an increase of approximately 100 people) than that associated with Analysis Area 1. The estimated fair weather evacuation time for winter weekoay, winter night, summer weekday and summer weekend conditions is 155 minutes (2 hours, 35 minutes). These times are primarily influenced by the time associated with preparation and mobilization activities. The estimated adverse weather evacuation time is 160 minutes (2 hours, 40 minutes) for winter weekdays and summer weekeno conditions. The reduced roadway capacity associated with both rain and snow adverse weather conditions has only a slight effect on evacuation times for this area. Once again, the only location where intermittent vehicle queueing occurs is along the Clinton Power Station main access road approaching its intersection with State highway 54. 0 Analysis Area 3--0-5 Miles, 90 NE (Sub-Areas 1 and 3) Analysis Area 3 includes the Clinton Power Station site, the Clinton Lake recreational population and a small number of permanent residents. The estimated fair weather evacuation time for this case is 155 minutes (2 hours, 35 minutes) for winter weekday, winter night, summer weekday and summer weekend conditions. Again, the most significant influence on this total evacuation time is the preparation and mobilization time period associated with the permanent population.. The adverse weather evacuation time for Analysis Area 3 for both winter and summer conditions is the same as for fair weather conditions, or 155 minutes (2 hours, 35 minutes). The a 4624C 6-3
estimated fair and adverse weather evacuation times are the same because area roadway capacities, even during adverse weather conditions, exceed vehicle demands. U Analysis Area 4--0-5 Miles, 90 SE (Sub-Areas 1, 4, and 5) Evacuation of this Analysis Area includes vehicles associated with plant employment at Clinton Power Station, transient recreational population at Clinton Lake and permanent residents. It also includes the Village of DeWitt. Both recreational and permanent resident populations are higher than
-for the.0-2 mile evacuation scenario.
The maximum estimated evacuation time for Analysis Area 4 under winter and summer weekday, fair weather conditions is 165 minutes (2-hours, 45 minutes). This time is largely the result of the time associated with the preparation and mobilization of the permanent population. However, intermittent vehicle queueing is evident along Randolph Street and along Old Clinton Road. Capacity-deficiencies along these roadways are responsible, in part, for the estimated evacuation times being somewhat higher than for Analysis Areas 2 and 3. The estimated evacuation time for nighttime a)d summer weekend conditions is 155 minutes (2 hours, 35 minutes). This time is influenced primarily by the preparation and mobilization time associated with permanent residents. The adverse weather evacuation time for this area is 170 minutes (2 hours, 50 minutes) for winter conditions and 155 minutes (2 hours, 35 minutes) for summer conditions. The reduced roadway capacities associated with adverse weather have more of an effect on evacuation of Analysis Area 4 than for Areas 2 or 3. Analysis Area 5--0-5 Miles, 90 USW (Sub-Areas 1, 6 and 7) Evacuation of this Analysis Area includes vehicles associated with employees at Clinton Power Station, transient 4624C 6-4
recreational population at Clinton Lake and permanent resident population. The majority of evacuating vehicles are associated with the plant work force and recreational population at Clinton Lake. The estimated evacuation. times for Analysis Area 5 are identical to those associated with Analysis Area 2, as indicated in Table 6.1. The most significant portion of the total evacuation time for fair weather conditions is
~ attributable to preparation and mobilization times. The 1
reduced. roadway capacities and travel speeds associated with the summer and winter aaverse weather conditions only slightly increase the total evacuation time. Analysis Area 6--0-10 Miles, 90 NW (Sub-Areas 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11, 20, 21, 22 and 23) Evacuation of Analysis Area 6 includes a significant permanent resident, recreational and work force population. Permanent residents of the City of Clinton represent a major portion of the permanent resident population within this area. It is estimated that evacuation of this area during all fair weather conditions would take up to 180 minutes (3 hours). Vehicle. queueing and associated delays would occur throughout the evacuation period, particuarly along Van Buren, Center and Madison Streets-in the City of Clinton. Therefore, capacity restrictions along several evacuation routes within the City of Clinton are the primary influence on the total evacuation time for Analysis Area 6. Adverse weather evacuation times for Analysis Area 6 are
. 215 minutes (3 hours, 35 minutes) for winter conditions and 185 minutes (3 hours, 5 minutes) for summer conditions. The reduced roadway capacities and travel speeos associated with the adverse weather conoitions significantly affect the total evacuation time for snow conditions. The evacuation time for both fair and adverse weather conditions is influenced 4624C 5
-_uln
primarily by roadway capacity limitations and vehicle demand density and distribution, particularly within the City of Clinton. Analysis Area 7--0-10 Miles, 90U NE (Sub-Areas 1, 3, 12, 13, 24 and 25) This Analysis Area consists of the same total recreational and work force population as the corresponding 0-5 mile case (i.e., Analysis Area 3). There are approximately 300 more permanent residents for the 0-10 mile case. The estimated fair and adverse weather evacuation times of 160 minutes (2 hours, 40 minutes) are only five minutes longer than those associated with' the correspanoing 0-5 mile case, as shown in Table 6.1. These evaucation times are all influenced primarily by the preparation and mobilization times of the permanent resident population. Intermittent vehicle queueing is indicated alnng 1the Clinton Power Station main access road at times of peak daytime plant employment; however, this does not significantly affect-the total evacuation times. Analysis Area 8--0-10 Miles, 90 U SE (Sub-Areas 1, 4, 5, 14, 15, 16, 26, 27, 28 and 29) Analysis. Area 8 has a larger permanent resident population than the corresponding 0-5 mile case (Analysis Area 4). The remaining population, consistinglof the Clinton Power Station work force an'd Clinton L'ake recreational population, is exactly the same.as for the corresponding 0-5 mile case. The. estimated evacuation time for daytime fair weather conoitions-is 170 minutes (2 hours, 50 minutes). Vehicle queueing is indicated throughout most of the evacuation period along Randolph Street in. the V'illage of DeWitt. Similar queueing also occurs along Old Clinton Road which is a minor access roao to the plant, from DeWitt. The evacuation time under. daytime' conditions is governed by the preparation'and-
. 4624C 6-6
mobilization time of the permanent residents as well as by capacity limitations of Old Clinton Road and Randolph Street during periods of combined heavy demand from plant work force and DeWitt residents. , The estimated evacustion time for night and weekend fair weather conditions is 160 minutes (2 hours, 40 minutes). There is minimal queueing under these conditions and the evacuation time is influenceo primarily by the preparation and mobilization time of permanent residents. For winter weekday, adverse weather conditions, the estimated evacuation time for Analysis Area 8 is 175 minutes (2 hours, 55 minutes). It is estimated that evacuation of the area during a summer weekeno, adverse weather period could be completed within 160 minutes (2 hours, 40 minutes). The reduced roaoway capacities and travel speeds associated with the winter day, adverse weather result in the slightly increased estimated evacuation time (compared to fair weather conditions). Analysis Area 9--0-10 Miles, 90U SW (Sub-Areas 1, 6, 7, 17, 18, 19 and 30) The population associated with Analysis Area 9 consists predominantly of plant work force during the day, permanent residents at night and the transient recreational population of Clinton Lake and Weldon Springs State Park on weekends. The estimated f air and adverse weather evacuation times are all
-within five minutes of the times for the corresponding 0-5 mile scenario of Analysis Area 5, as shown in Table 6.1. These evacuation times are all governed primarily by the preparation ano mobilization times associated with the permanent residents.
Analysis Area 10--DeWitt County DeWitt County has the largest total population of the four counties included within the EPZ. The longest fair weather 4624C 6-7
1 evacuation time of 195 minutes (3 hours, 15 minutes) occurs during a summer weekend. This time is governed by the large transient recreational population as well as by resultant vehicle demand and capacity limitations along Van Buren, Center and Madison Streets in the City of Clinton. The next longest fair weather evacuation time of 190 minutes (3 hours, 10 minutes) occurs during a summer weekday. This time is governed primarily by factors similar to those influencing the weekend evacuation. The estimated fair weather evacuation time for winter weekday and weeknight conditions is 180 minutes (3 hours). Vehicle queueing for these cases is also present at locations along Van Buren, Center and Madison Streets. Thus, capacity limitations along these roaoways are the determining factor of
. winter weekday ano nighttime evacuation times.
The winter weekday and summer weekend, adverse weather evacuation times are 225 minutes (3 hours, 45 minutes) and 230 minutes (3 hours, 50 minutes), respectively. Both times are higher than their corresponding fair weather cases due to capacity restrictions caused by snow and rain. The summer weekend, adverse weather time is 5 minutes higher due to a large summer transient population ano resultant vehicle cemand over roadways having reduced capacities due to weather conditions. Analysis Areas'll, 12 and 13--McLean County, Platt County ano Macon County Only a small portion of the total land area as well as total population of the EPZ is within these counties. Evacuating vehicles are associated almost exclusively with the permanent resident population. Evacuation of each county on a separate basis woulo take approximately 155 minutes (2-hours, 35 minutes).for all time and weather conditions as indicated in Table 6.1. The estimated evacuation times for McLean, Platt and-Macon Counties are limited by the maximum preparation and mobilization time associated with the permanent residents. 4624C 6-8 L.
4 Analysis Area 14--Full EPZ Analysis Area 14 includes the evacuation of the entire Clinton Power Station EPZ. For winter weekday, fair weather conditions, the estimated evacuation time is 180 minutes (3 hours). This time is the same as that estimated for DeWitt County. This evacuation time is influenced primarily by the capacity limitations of several sections of van Buren Street within the City of Clinton. Vehicle queueing along the entire length of this street occurs throughout the evacuation procedure.- The capacity limitations and resultant queues are primarily the result of delays occurring at the signalized intersection of Van Buren Street and U.S. Highway 51. Other locations where consistent' queueing is indicated are as follows: o State Highway 10 at Van Buren Street ; o State highway 54 at Van Buren Street; o Madison Street at Van Buren Siteet;
- o. State Highway 54 at Main Street; o -Randolph Street at State Highway 54;.
o Walnut Street at Webster Street; and a Center Street at Woodlawn Avenue-and U.S. Highway 51. All_of these locations are in the City of'Clinton except for the.Randolph' Street location which is in the Village of DeWitt. A summary'of the locations where vehicle queueing occurs during the course of an evacuation for winter weekday, fair weather conditions is presented in Appendix 7. Also,. Figure 6.1 presents a_ summary of cumulative vehicle departures from 4the Clinton EPZ,-as a function of time, for the winter weekday 4624C 6-9 m
conoition.. A review of this figure inoicates a steady rate of departures of vehicles leaving the EPZ during the time period between 1 and 3 hours following the evacuation order. The ' estimated evacuation time for winter weeknight, fair weather conditions is 180 minutes (3 hours). Vehicle queueing that occurs during the course of this evacuation is present, although in a less pronounced form, at the same locations as for winter daytime conditions, except for the intersection of Randolph Street and State Highway 54. Significant queueing at this location occurs only during weekday evacuations when there is a heavy vehicle demand associated with a combination of the Clinton Power Station work force and permanent residents from the Village of DeWitt. The nighttime reduction in plant work force reduces vehicle demand along Randolph Street and alleviates queueing in the area. Figure 6.2 summarizes the total departures from the EPZ, as a function of time, for winter weeknight, f air weather conditions. The estimated evacuation time for summer weekend, fair weather conditions is 195 minutes (3 hours, 15 minutes). This time is the longest estimated fair weather evacuation time. It is the same as the estimated summer weekend evacuation time for Dehitt County. The summer weekend population is larger than that for any other analysis time period. Significant vehicle queueing under summer weekend, fair weather conditions is indicated at the same locations as for winter weekday, fair weather _ conditions. Intermittent vehicle queueing occurs during the outset of the evacuation at access roads to the Clinton Lake and Weldon Springs State Park recreational areas. A summary of locations where vehicle queueing occurs during the course Of an evacuation for the summer weekend, fair weather scenario is presented in Appendix 7. Also, Figure 6.3 presents a summary of cuaulative vehicle departures from the Clinton EPZ, as a function of time, for the summer weekend, fair weather condition. A comparison of Figure 6.3 with Figure 6.1 shows vehicles departing at a slightly faster rate during the summer weekend than during the winter weekday. The reason for this difference in departure rates is that the large summer 4624C 6-10 L:.
weekend recreational population has a relatively short preparation and mobilization time. Under summer weekday, fair weather conditions, it is estimated that it will take 190 minutes (3 hours,10 minutes) to evacuate the EPZ. This summer weekday evacuation case has the second largest population of all full EPZ analysis cases. Figure 6.4 presents a summary of cumulative vehicle departures from the Clinton Power Station EPZ, as a function of time, for the1 summer weekday, f air weather conditions. A comparison of Figure 6.4 with Figure 6.3 shows a similar departure rate for both summer weekday ano weckend conditions. Evacuation time estimates for the winter day and summer weekend, aoverse weather conditions are 225 minutes (3 hours, 45 minutes) and 230 minutes (3 hours, 50 minutes), respectively. The key locations where congestion is most prevalent are the same as those identified for the fair weather conditions, although weather-related reductions in vehicle capacity and travel speed would make the extent of vehicle queueing more significant for. the adverse weather cases. Figures 6.5 and 6.6 present the total vehicle departure; from
- the EPZ, as a function of _ time, for the winter weekday and -summer _ weekend, adverse weather conditions. The general vehicle departure characteristics for both adverse weather conditions are similar to corresponding fair weather departures.
Impacts of Clinton By-Pass and Route 51 Widening For analysis-purposes, an evacuation time estimate was also developed for-both a winter daytime and summer weekend, fair weather evacuation of the Clinton EPZ with the Clinton By-Pass in full operation and Route 51 widened to four lanes, two in each direction. It was expected that these improvements to the evacuation roadway network might reduce vehicle congestion within the City of Clinton. Evacuation of the EPZ under winter weekday, fair weather conditions with the By-Pass in operation is estimated to take 180 minutes (3 hours). Meanwhile, it 4624C 6-11 L
l
)
10,000 l 9,000 l 8,000 en w
$ 7,000 . a l
$ 6,000 Q
w
.J 2 5,000 1
w W 4,000 p
.J 3 3,000 '
1 2 3 0 2,000 i 1,000 l l l
- 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 i
1 TIME (Minutes) l FIGURE 6.1 - CUPULATIVE NEHICLE DEPARTURES FPCM THE i CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ: WINTER WEEKDAY, l FAIR WEATHER 4624C 6-12
l l 1 10,000 9,000 8,000 to w j 7,000 m
$ 6,000 Q
U U 5,000 Z w y 4,000 5
.2 3 3,000 3
3 0 2,000 1,000 l ( 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 ( TIME (Minutes) l l 1 FIGURE 6.2 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE i CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ: WINTER WEEKNIGHT, l FAIR WEATHER 4624C 6-13
i , l 10,000 l 9,000 l 8,000 l E g 7,000
$ 6,000 Q
- o 5,000 2
w W 4,000 p 3 3,000 2 3 0 2,000 1,000 80 60 90 120 150 180 210 240-TIME (Minutes) FIGURE 6.3 - CUHULATIVE VEHICLE DEPAPTURES FPOM THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ: SUMNER WEEKEND, FAIR WEATHER 4624C 6-14
10,000 4. 9,000 8,000
$ 7,000 e $ 6,000 Q
0 5,000 x w W 4,000 g 5 m 3,000 2 m 0 2,000 1 1,000 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 TIME (Minutes) FIGURE 6.4 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ: SUMMER WEEKDAY, FAIR WEATHER 4624C 6-15 l
10,000 9,000 8,000 m w
$ 7,000
, a 1 4
$ 6,000 C
U U 5,000 I w W 4,000 r J m 3,000 2 m I. U l l 2,000 1,000 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 TIME (Mhutes) l FIGURE 6.5 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ: WINTER WEEKDAY, ADVERSE WEATHER 4624C 6-16 L-
7 _ _ , i l 10,000 l l 9,000 8,000 j 7,000
$ 6,000 Q
0 5,000 x w W 4,000 i:
- D 3,000 1
2
- 2 0
2,000 1,000 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 TIME (Minutes) FIGURE 6.6 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPAPTURES FROM THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ: SUMMER WEEKEND, ADVERSE WEATHER 4624C 6-17
. Lis estimated that an evacuation of the EPZ under summer weekend, fair weather conditions would take 195 minutes (3 hours, 15 minutes). These times are the same as for the corresponding-full EPZ evacuation without the Clinton By-Pass and with Route 51 providing one travel lane in each direction.
This result indicates that inter-city (i.e., non-local) traffic, which is-the type of traffic that would be expected to
~most utilize the By-Pass, is not a major determining factor in these estimated evacuation times. Rather, the vehicle congestion and delays indicated within the City of Clinton are caused by intra-city (i.e., local) tr'affic. Therefore, it appears that implementation of the Clinton By-Pass and widening of ,loute 51 would not promote faster radial travel out of the EPZ during an evacuation.
a E 4624C 6-18
/:
.T ,-
- j7. . SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSES l7.1 - Gene ral -
Supplemental- analyses related to evacuation of the Clinton
. Power. Station EPZ have been conducted. Access Control
' Locations .have:been identified to restrict access into the area
' within approximately ten miles of the plant during an emergency. . Also, potential mitigating measures have been Lidentified to more effectively manage the traffic flow
- anticipated from.an emergency evacuation of'the EPZ.
'7. 2 Evacuation Access Control Locations Table '7.1 lists the identified Access Control Locations
.for'the.10-mile EPZ. These locations were developed based upon sa.-detailed review of the Clinton EPZ transporta tion network, fand :are Lidentified .on Figure 7.1. These 55 control points will
, ;be:staf fed ~ by -Sta te, County and local emergency. services and law enforcement ~ personnel, as available, for the purpose of
- -restricting unauthorized access' into the. potential hazard .
1 area.*:
- 7. 3 Evacuation Traf fic' Management' Loca tions ~ and Other
-Potential Mitiga ting Measures
~
The NETVAC ; simulation model output was examined in detail
~
to identify key: intersection ' locations where vehicle queueing and delays may Twarrantitraf fic management' during the course of a'n <eva cua tion.- The locations of vehicle queueing,.or
, congestion, which would be-anticipated during an. evacuation are fillustratediin-. Appendix 7, for evacuation- of the entire EPZ
'under..winterf weekday and . summer weekend f air weather conditions.
" *^The : specific priorities and procedures ;which wi]l be used in -
, : staffing the: access control? points and-traffic management rlocations is identified-in the County RERPs.
(666/4625C' 7-1 y ,
TABLE 7.1 ACCESS CONTROL LOCATIONS FOR THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ* Location No. Loca tion County 1~ RR1600N/RR2350E Dewitt 2 RR1500N/Rutledge-Santa Anna line DeWitt 3 . RR1400N/RR 2400E DeWitt 4 RR1350N/RR 2400E DeWitt 5' US150/IL54 DeWitt < 6 CH4/RR1235N DeWitt 7 CH5/RR2900N DeWitt 8 CH5/RR2750N Platt 9 CHS/RR 2600N Platt 10 CH5/RR 2500N Platt
- 11. CHS/IL10' Platt 12 RR 2150N/RR 600E Platt 13 CH5/RR1950N Platt 14 CH5'/RR1800N Platt 115 RR1800N/RR400E Platt 16- RR1800N/RR300E Platt 17 RR1800N/RR100E Platt 18 IL48/CH36 Platt/Macon Line 19 Durock Rd/8riggs Rd. Macon 20 Durock Rd/ Friends Creek Park Rd- Macon
~21 .Durock Rd/Cemete ry Rd Macon 22 Durock Rd/CH25( Argenta Rd) Macon 23 Durock Rd/Connors Rd Macon 24 Durock Rd/ Leghorn Rd Macon
-25. Durock Rd/ Brush College Rd Macon 26 . CH38/ Green Switch Rd
^
Macon
-27. US51/CH38 Macon
- 28 CH58/Janvrian Rd Macon Re fer to re ference numbers on_ Figure 7.1.
666/4625C: 7-2
- . . ~
TABLE 7.1 (cont.) ACCESS CONTROL LOCATIONS FOR THE SINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ*
. Location No. Loca tion County 29 CH58/Bearsdale Rd Macon 30 RR000N/Tunbridge-Texas Line DeWitt 31 CHil/Tunbridge-Texas Line DeWitt
'32- . RR 600E/RR 250N DeWitt 33 RR 600E/RR 300N DeWitt 34 RR 600E/RR 350N DeWitt 35 IL54/RR 525N/RR 600E DeWitt
-36 RR600E/IL10 DeWitt
- 37. RR800N/Barnett-Clinton Line DeWitt 36' RR900N/RR600E DeWitt 39' - RR1000N/RR 600E - DeWitt 40 RR1100N/RR600E DeWitt 41 US51/CH9 DeWitt 42 US51/RR1400N. DeWitt 43-- US51/RR1475N DeWitt 44 US51/RR100N McLean 45 US 51/US136 McLean 46 'US136/RR1600E McLean 47: US136/RR1800E McLean
'48- .US136/CH29 McLean 49 US136/RR 2000E = McLean
.501 US136/CH27 Mc Lean
"^ 151 US136/RR 2200E McLean 52~ US136/RR 2350E .- McLean 53 US136/RR 2450E McLean 54 US136/RR2500E- McLean 55 US 136/ CH 21 -- .McLean
' '. - Refe r_ to ' re fe rence numbers on Figure 7.1.
1
'666/4625C 7-3
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LEGEND Access Control Locations 00 Traffic Management Locations FIGURE 7.1 ACCESS CONTROL AND TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT LOCATIONS (EXCLUDING THE CITY OF CLINTON) 666/4625C 7-4
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- 12 .
*0' **?? 'l s.s un ** . a. ~' b, b jmQ. *
,s I
onI f--- ~ r i I.
-..id "
. trwp ~ h LEGEND I
3 I - i
- N -
- Traffic Management Locations
( con t. i nued ) - ItJSElt T 1 - ACCtSS Ctjilitt0L AtJD litAFFIC FICultE 7.1 MAtJAGEMI t1T LOCATIOilS Ill lilt- CITY tlF ClItal0rt
The responsibility for both traffic and access control during an evacuation of the Clinton Power Station EPZ will be
-the shared responsibility of State, County and local emergency services and law enforcement personnel, as available.* All of
~
the previously identified Access Control Locations would also serve as' Traffic Management Locations, since personnel stationed at these areas would assist in the efficient movement
.of vehicles outside the area. In addition to these Access Control Locations, additional locations have been identified within the EPZ where traffic management should be considered.
These' locations represent areas where traffic control personnel should be stationed to reduce vehicle conflicts and promote progressive movement through the area. The recommended Traffic Management Locations, also identified in Figure 7.1, are key areas where significant traffic congestion would be anticipated during the evacuation process. A list of these locations is as follows: Location ** No. Location (56) Clinton Power Station Access Road at State Highway 54 (57) dandolph Street at State Highway 54 (58) Center Street at Woodlawn Avenue and U.S. Highway 51 (59) State' Highway 54 at Main Street (60) State Highway 54 at State Highway 10 and Van Buren Street (61) Madison Street at Van Buren Street (62) - Van Buren Street at U.S. Highway.51 (63) Walnut Street at Webster Street
- The specific priorities and procedures which_will be used in
_, staffing the access control points and traffic management locations is identified in the County RERPs.
**' Refer to reference numbers on Figure 7.1.
. 666/4623C- 7-6 L
.The sta tioning of traf fic controllers at these Traf fic
._ ' Management Locations would not be expected to significantly reduce the time required to evacuate the EPZ, since the time
-estimates.are most influenced by the various preparation and mobilization times. However, controllers at these key locations would reduce the number of vehicle conflicts and promote more progressive movement through the area. The traf fic controllers would also act to instill confidence in evacuees by directing evacuating traf fic in the most ef ficient manner _possible, and by being available to respond to unpredictable or changing events.
L 666/4625C 7-7
REFERENCES
- 1. "CriteriaLfor Preparation and~ Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," NUREG-0654, FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980. 2.1980 Census of Population and Housing, Summary Tape Files, Northern Illinois University - Census Data Laboratory; 1980 Census of. Housing - General Housing Characteristics, HC 80-1-A15, U.S. Department of Commerce, August 1982.
- 3. DeWitt, Macon, McLean and Platt County Highway Maps, Illinois Department of Transportation, Office of Planning and Programming;.7.5 minute series topographic quadrangle maps, U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior.
- 4. " Highway Capacity Manual," Highway Research Board Special Report 87, National Academy of Sciences, 1965.
- 5. " Interim Materials on Highway Capacity," Transportation Research Circular 212, Transportation Research Board, January 1980.
- 6. " Evacuation Planning in Emergency Management," Perry, Lindell & Greene, 1981.
- 7. Extrapolated from data presented in "The Environnental Influence of Rain on Freeway Capacity," E. Roy Jones and Merrell E. Goolsby, Highway Research Record No. 321, Highway Research Board, 1970;.and " Headway Approach to Intersection Capacity," Donald S. Berry and'P.D. Gandhi, Highway Research Record No. 453, Highway Research Board, 1973.
- 8. " Evacuation-Risks - An Evaluation," Hans and Sell, USEPA, July 1974; and " Evacuation Planning.in Emergency Management," Perry, Lindell and Greene, Lexington Books, 1981.
- 9. " Seasonal Housing Occupancy Survey for Seabrook, NH," HMM Associates, 1978.
- 10. Based on discussions with M. Strain, Director, Clinton/DeWitt County Emergency Services and Disaster Agency.
- 11. "Clinton Power Station Final Safety Analysis Report",
. Section 2.3, as amended November 1983.
4626C R-1
Personal communication with:
- 12. Carolyn Glasson, Guidance Counselor, Clinton high School on 6/4/84.
13.' Peggy Newman, School Superintendent Secretary for Clinton Junior High, Douglass Grade School, Lincoln Grade School, Washington Grade School and Webster Grade School on 6/4/84.
- 14. Evelyn High, School Secretary, Wapella Junior and Senior High School on 6/4/84.
- 15. Charles Davenport, Principal, Wapella Grade School on 6/4/84.
- 16. Betty Carr, Secretary, DeLand-Weldon High School on 6/4/84.
- 17. Esther Webb, Secretary, DeLand-Weldon Grade School on 6/5/84.
- 18. Ed Cuncan, Personnel Department, Action Technology or.
6/5/84. .19. Ann Woolrich, Bookkeeper, Clinton Imperial China Inc. on 6/5/84.
- 20. Betty Mekan, Receptionist, Miller Container Corporation on 6/5/84.
' 21. Ca t hy - Lo gu e , Employee Relations Secretary, Portec Inc., Midwest Freight Car Division on 6/5/84.
- 22. Ruth Stouf fer, Personnel Clerk, Revere Copper.and Brass Inc. on 6/5/84.
- 23. Clyde Stocker, General Manager, Charles Todd Industrial Uniform Services Inc. on 6/5/84.
- 24. Jack Scheider, Personnel Department, Wallace Computer Services on 6/5/84.
25.. Debbie Hendricks, Administration Secretary, John Warner Hcspital on 6/5/84.
- 26. Ann Marble, Director of Nursing, Crestview Nursing.Home on 6/5/84.
- 27. Secretary, DeWitt County Jail'on 6/5/84.
H2 8. .Arlie Joiner, Owner, Arrowhead Acres Camp on 6/1/84.
- 29. Dan Cassidy, Grounos Supervisor, Clinton Country Club on 5/30/84 and 7/5/84.
4626C R-2
Personal communication with (cont.): 30.' Gene Johnson, employee, Little Galilee Christian Camp on 5/30/84.
- 31. Dave Herzog, Site Superintencent , Jleldon Springs Sta te Park on 5/30/84 and 7/9/84.
- 32. Mike McCully, Site Superintendent, Clinton Lake Recreational Area on 5/30/84 and 7/5/84.
- 33. Reverend Hoffman, Cavalry Pentecostal Church Camp on 6/7/84.
- 34. Employee,. Taylor-Magill Hotel and Restaurant on 6/12/84.
- 35. Manager, Town and Country Motel on 6/12/84.
- 36. Pam Patel, Owner, hye Motel on 6/12/84.
- 37. Manager, R and R Motel on 6/12/84.
4626C R-3
y._- ., -. .. .. . - . _ _ _ . _ _ . __. -. _ , . _ . . . _ _ . _ . . _ . - . . . . _ _ _ _ . . _ _ . _ . - _ _ . . _ _ _ _ . _ w +: ; _ t g - > i T '
- 4 k'^-
t
- i 1., 1
..w,..
k 7i i 1 [ f. i APPENDIX 1
~
f- PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND i I:
-VEHICLE'OEMAND ESTIMATES .
> r f
I. ',. h b 4 i J r f s' i .
~4 s
4 ~; u .I'._ J, +
.. 4 t
t e V ,
.. N ,
f k l I I
~[
~ *
+
s A1 1
.c , ; ,: e~-' .
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAN0 ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node DeWitt County: Clinton City ED.0011 U 138 W 5-6 58 38 692 6-7 293 38 277 WSW 5-6 117 38 277 6-7 117 38 ITUT TEF ED 0011 T 313 WSW 6-7 13 3 38 ED 0012 1186 W 6-7 503 908 EO 0013 345 W 6-7 14 6 32 1033 7-8 438 30 I37E TBT ED 0014 1111 WSW 7-8 471 39 123 8-9 52 39 TZ3T TZ7 ED 0015 109 W 6-7 46 35 492 7-8 208 35 493 WSW 7-8 209 39 Til9T TEI ED 0016 339 W 6-7 144 41 791 WSW 6-7 335 42 TIT 6 4 79 ED 0017 8 87 W 6-7 37 33 ED 0017 0 0 0 ED 0017 C 0 0 ED 0017 E 24 WSW 7-8 10 44 ED 0031 164 WSW 7-8 78 44 TOTAL CLINTON CITY WITHIN EPZ gg11 4355C Al-2
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPOLATION AND VEHICLE-DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census-Division Poculation Sector Demand Node
-DeWitt County:-
Clintonia ED 0018 30 WSW 6-7 10 42 ED 0019 0 0 ED 0020 32 WSW 7-8 11 44 ED 0021 0 0 ED 0022 0 0 ED 0023 7 WSW 6-7 2 41 ED 0024 0 0 E(10017 F 9 W 7-8 3 35 , EO 0017 A 12 WNW 4-5 4 33 16 5-6 6 33 24 6-7 8 33 20 7-8 7 33 21 8-9 7 33' 12 9-10 4 33 4 10 + 2 33 8 W 4-5 3 18 20 5-6 7 18 29 6-7 10 33 188 7-8 66 29 45 8-9 16 34 53 9-10 19 34 21 10 + 8 29 l 8 WSW 4-5 3. 18 45 5-6 16 18 8 6 3 18 21 7-8 7' 44 37 8-9 13 10 , 6,- 24 9-10 8 10 ( 616 217 TOTAL CLINTONIA WITHIN EPZ gg4 4355C A l-3
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node DeWitt County: Creek ED 0030 3 WSW 4-5 1 62 21 SW 3-4 8 62 21 4-5 8 62 29 5-6 10 62 26 6-7 9 26,62 6 7-8 2 26 3 8-9 1 26 151 SSW 3-4 54 63 15 4-5 5 63 15 5-6 5 26,63 23 6-7 8 26 18 7-8 6 26 23 8-9 8 67 12 S 2-3 4 19 9 3-4 3 19 24 4-5 9 19 12 5-6 4 27 18 6-7 6 27 21 7-8 8 27 6 8-9 2 27 15 SSE 2-3 5 902 6 3-4 2 '19 3 4-5 1 19 6 5-6 2 27 3 7-8 1 27 489 172 TOTAL CREEK WITHIN EPZ 189 DeWitt Village ED 0026 186 ENE 2-3 65 15 46 E 2-3 _S 14 232 di TOTAL DEdITT VILLAGE WITHIN EPZ 232 4355C A1 4
T l 1 l
' PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES <
l 1 Vehicle
-Census' Division Population Sector Demand Node DeWitt" County:
DeWitt ED 0027 2 NNE 3-4 1 16 8 NE 3-4 3 16 10 4-5 4 16 8 5-6 3 17 3 6-7 1 17 8 ENE 2-3 3 14,16 10 3-4 4 15 10 4-5 4 15 18 5-6 7 15,17,903 34 6-7 13 64 18 7-8 7 64 3 E 1-2 1 61 8 2-3 3 61 3 34 1 60 5 4-5 2 60 5 5-6 2 50 23 6-7 9 50 18 7-8 7 50 3' ESE 2-3 1 60 13- 3-4 5 39 10 4-5 4 59 3 5-6 1 50 8 6-7 3 50 3 7-8 1 50 3 SE 3-4 1 59 237 91 TOTAL DEWITT WITHIN EPZ [17 DeWitt County: Harp ED 0025- 8 N 2-3 3- 11 15 3-4 6 11 8 NNE 1 3 13 8 2-3 3 13 18 3-4 7 13-4355C Al-5 L
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node DeWitt County: 5 NE 1-2 2 13 Harp (continued) 2 2-3 1 13 5 ENE 0-1 2 13 3 1-2 1 13 2 E 0-1 1 61 3 S 0-1 1 61 5 SW 0-1 2 61 5 1-2 2 61 3 2-3 1 61 8 WSh 1-2 3 61 5 2-3 2 905 8 3-4 3 905 13 4-5 5 62 10 W 2-3 4 905 13 3-4 5 51,905 10 4-5 4 51 8 WNW 0-1 3 11 15 1-2 6 11 10 2-3 4 51 3 3-4 1 51 10 4-5 4 51 3 5-6 1 51 2- NW 1-2 1 11 10 2 4 12 13 3-4 5 12 10 4-5 4 12. 8 5-6 3 12 5 NNW 1-2 2 13 3 2-3 'l 11 10 3-4 4 12 3 4-5 1 12 270 105 TOTAL HARP WITHIN EPZ 110 4355C Al-6 c_
PERMANENT RESICENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node Dehitt County:
~
Weldon Village ED 0026 531 SE 5-6 218 21 TOTAL.hELOON VILLAGE. WITh1N EPZ 531 Dehitt County: Nixon ED 0029 2 ESE 4-5 1 59 12 5-6 5 21,59 9 6-7 4 21 21 7-8 9 21 2 9-10 1 21 2 SE 2-3 1 59 5 3-4 2 59 16 4 -5 7 20 14 5-6 6 2n 18 6-7 7 28,20,21 9 7-8 4 28,21 5 8-9 2 21 12 SSE 4-5 5 20 9 5-6 4 28,20 16 .6-7 7 28 23 7-8 9 28
-12 8-9 5 26-2 9-10 1 28 189 80 TOTAL NIXON WITHIN EPZ 189 -4355C~ Al-7
~ ~
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node DeWitt County: Rutledge ED 0004 6 NNE 4-5 2 7 17 5-6 6 7 17 6-7 6 7 33 7-8 11 8 6 8-9 2 8 5 NE 4-5 2 7 8 5-6 3 8 22 6-7 7 8 28 7-8 9 8 28 8-9 9 9 31 9-10 10 9 6 10+ 2 9 11 ENE 7-8 4 9 11 8-9 4 9 229 77 TOTAL RUTLEDGE
.WITHIN EPZ 229
.DeWitt County: Santa Anna ED 0003 A 4 ENE 7-8 1 64 14 8-9 5 64 42 9-10 15 64 38 10+ 14 64 24 E 8-9 9 64 4 9-10 1 64 328 out of EPZ 0 -- 454 45 TOTAL SANTA ANA WITHIN EPZ 126 4355C A l-8
i l FERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES l Vehicle ' Census Division Population Sector Demand Node
- DeWitt~ County:
Texas
-ED'0032 15 WSW 5-6 6 48 ,
26 6-7 10 48 116 7-8 44 24 202- 8-9 76 22 71 9-10 27 22 120 10+ 45 23
- 23 SW 6-7 9 48 ~
-19 7-8 7 25 34 8-9 13 25 94 9-10 35 25 41 10+ 16 25 11 SSW 9-10 4 25 56 out=of EPZ 0 828 292 TOTAL ~ TEXAS WITHIN EPZ 221'
- DeWitt County:.
Wapella Village [ ED 006 768 WNW 7-8 277 3-I
' TOTAL ~WAPELLA VILLAGE f#1 THIN EPZ Zgg,
.g I.
~4355C Al-9 '
i i
~
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node DeWitt County:
~Wapella ED 0007 3 NNh 9-10 1 55 6 NW 6-7 2 5 12 7-8 5 1 63 8-9 24 1 90 9-10 34 1 6 10+ 2 55 3 WNh 5-6 1 5 6 6-7 '
2 5 15 7-8 6 5 9 8-9 3 1 12 9-10 5 1 12 10+ 5 1 160 out of EPZ 0 -- 397 90 TOTAL WAPELLA WITHIN EPZ gl7 DeWitt County: ' hilson ED 0005 3 Nh 4-5 1 6 13 5-6 5 6 5 6-7 2 6 8 7-8 3 6 13 NNW 4-5 5 6 15 5-6 6 6 13 6-7 5 6 16 7-8 7 6 13 8-9 5 6 13 N 3 -4 5 6 13 4-5 5 6 13 5-6 5 6 23 6-7 9 6 18- 7-8 7 6 13 NNE 4-5 5 6 , 3 5-6 1 6 197 76 TOTAL WILSON WITHIN EPZ 192 4355C Al-10 f
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Pooulation Sector Demand Node Macon County: Friends Creek ED 1901 7 SSE 8-9 2 56 22 9-10 8 56 32 S 8-9 11 57 19 9-10 7 57 6 SSW 8-9 2 57 16 9-10 5 57 385 out of EPZ 0 -- 487 35 ED 1902 73 out of EPZ 0 -- TOTAL FRIENDS CREEK WITHIN EPZ 102 4355C Al-11 e
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES ; Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Demand Node McLean County: Downs Township EO 08008 0 EO 0800C 0 EO 0801 3 N 7-8 1 54 23 8-9 8 54 19 9-10 10 54 6 NNW 7-8 2 54 10 8-9 3 54 29 9-10 10 54 13 10+ 4 54 360 out of EPZ 0 --
/ 463 38 [
t TOTAL DOWNS TOWNSHIP WITHIN EPZ AQl McLean County: Empire ED 0799 A , 3 N 9-10 1 53 10 NNE 8-9 3 53 31 9-10 11 53 17 10+ 6 53 4 NE 9-10 1 53 14 10+ 5 53 524 out of EPZ 0 -- 603 27 TOTAL EMPIRE WITHIN EPZ .22 4355C' Al-12 h
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population Sector Cemand Node Platt County: Blue Ridge E0 1626 58 out of EPZ 0 -- ED 1627 26 out of EPZ 0 -- E0 1628 A 7 E 9-10 3 65 5 10+ 2 65 401 out of EPZ 0 -- 413 5 I TOTAL BLUE RIDGE , WITh1N EPZ _1g Platt County: _ Goose Creek E0 1633 A 6 ~E 8-9 2 65 6 9-10 2 65 12 10+ 4 65 32 ESE 8-9 12 58 29 9-10 10 58 40 10+ 14 68 14 SE 7-8 5 66 17 8-9 6 66 29 9-10 10 66 57 10+ 21 66 6 SSE 9-10 2 66 228 out of EPZ 0 -- 476 88 c TOTAL GOOSE CREEK WITHIN EPZ g 701AL PERNANENT RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN EPZ 13.529 4355C- Al-13
r a TRANSPORT DEPENDENT ~ POPULATION
- NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLOS 2 1
MUNICIPALITY WITHOUT VEHICLES POPULATION DeWitt County: , Clinton City 372 878 Clintonia 10 29 Creek 3 8 DeWitt Village 3 9 DeWitt 0 0 Harp 5 14 Weldon Village 29 71 Nixon 0 0 x Rutledge 0 0 Santa Anna 2 6 Texas 3 8 Wapella Village 11 30 Wapella 2 5 Wilson 2 5 Macon County: Friends' Creek 5 15
- For evacuation analysis purposes, the transport dependent population is assumed to evacuate in the.~same manner as the auto-owning population. These population and vehicle demand fl0 ures are included in the first portion of tnis' appendix.
- 1. From the.1980 Census'of Housing.
- 2. Based on the average number of persons per households for each muncipality from-the 1980 Census of' Housing.
4355C Al-14 ,
TRANSPORT OEPENDENT POPULATION * (cont.)
, NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS MUNICIPALITY WITHOUT VEHICLES 1 POPULATION McLean County:
Downs Township 0 0 Empire 0 0 Platt County: Blue Ridge 0 0 Goose Creek 0 0 TOTAL 447 1078
~1:
~*-' For~ evacuation analysis purposes, the transport dependent is.
assumed to evacuate.in the same manner as the auto-owning-.
. population.- These population and vehicle demand figures are included in the first portion of tnis appendix.
1
- 1. From the 1980 Census off Housing.
- 2. Based on tne average numoer of: persons per households for
'each muncipality from _tne 1980 Census of Housing.
4355C < Al-15 w
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m k s 3 m l APPENDIX 2 SEASONAL ~ RESIDENT POPULATION b AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES-5.: ' c v _ 'i :- 6 4 1 e - t 4 7 } p. 4
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3 1
' 022 Di A2-1 f3 ,
5
t SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES SEASONAL SEASONgL RESIDENT 2 VEHICLS 4 MUNICIPALITY UNITS POPULATION DEMAND SECTOR NODE DeWitt County: Clintonia 11 59 22 W 7-8 34 W 8-9 W 9-10 Creek 3 16 6 SW 3-4 63 SW 4-5 DeWitt 0 0 0 - - Harp 0 0 0 - - Nixon 2 11 4 SSE 7-8 28 Rutledge 0 0 0 - - Santa Anna 3 16 6 ENE 9-10 64 Texas 5 27 10 WSW 6-7 48 Wapella 3 16 6 NW 9-10 'l Wilson 2. 11 4 N 4-5 6 o McLean County: Empire' 0 0 0 - - Downs 0 0 0 - - Macon County: Austin 0 0 0 - - Friends Creek 0 0 0 - - r,-
.1.. From 1980 Census of Housing.
~2. _BasedLon 5.4 persons per seasonal housing unit.
3.- Based on 2 vehicles.per seasonal _ housing-unit.
'4.-: Point of entry onto.the' evacuation roadway network.-
'02270 A2-2 i-L (
SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES (cont. ) SEASONAL SEASONgL RESIDENT 2 VEHICLS 4 MUNICIPALITY UNITS POPULATION DEMAND SECTOR NODE Platt County: Blue Ridge 0 0 0 - - Goose Creek _1 6 _2 SE 9-10 66 i TOTAL 30 162 60 j
~
~
_r' I-
- 1. . From.1980 Census of Housing.
12 Based on 5.4 persons per seasonal nousing unit.
- 3. Based on 2-vehicles per seasonal nousing' unit.
4 Point of entry onto tne evacuation roadway network. 02270' A2-3 c
' ^
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- APPENDIX 3 TRANSIENT POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES 4283C A3-1 t._..
7 y TRANSIENT POPULATION 40 EHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES IPOUSTRIES WITHIN TE (1.INTON POER STATION EPZ Nunter of Egloyees I2) Vehicle GemandI Reference . 01 stance Winter Summer Winter Summer Municip'lity Name/ Address Source Nunber Sector (miles) Weekthy Weeknight Wedcend Weekday Weeknight hekend Node (4)
-Clinton- Action Technology Co. 1 Wl- WSW 6-7 20 '25 0 20 25 0 18
. Rt.10 E Clinton' Imperial China 1 W2 W 6-7 70' 22 33- 70 22 33 42 211 E. Adams Miller Container Corp. 1. W3 WSW ' 6 22 0 0 22 0 0 18 Route 10 E Portec Inc., Mid-west . I nn nNW 6-7 13 0 65 30 130 65 50 2 Fre1@t Car Operations
- N Route 51 Revere Copper & Brast. Inc. 1 W5 WSW. 6-7 260 190 0 260 190 0 42 Sherman St.
Todd Industrial Uniform 1 W6 WSW 6-7 60 0 0 60 0 0 18 Services, Inc. Route IDE Wallace Computer Services, Inc. I W7 WSW 7-8 115 35 0 115 35 0 41 S. Clinton ' Harp- Clinton Power Station 1 til Center 3040 169 169 1394 78 78 901 Total Work Force 3717 506 252 2071 415 161 Sources:
- l. From Illinois Power Company officials.
(2) The nunber of employees was verified throu@ a telephone survey concbeted by Hei in June 1984 (3) Based on 1 vehicle per ernployee, except the Clinton Power Station which is based on an average of 2.5 construction workers per vehicle and 1.5 permanent employees per vehicle. (4) Point of entry onto the evacuation network. 4223C A3-2
r- i TRANSIENT POPULATION AND EHIRE DDeuc ESTIMATES (cont.) ECEATIONAL'FACILI' TIES WITHIN TE RINTON POER STATION EPZ Population" Vehicle Demand Reference. Distance Sumner Sunumer Winter Susumer Sunener Winter Facility Name Source -Nunber Sector (miles) Weekend Weekday ' We& day Weekend Weekday Weekday Node 49) Arrowhead Acres 1 R1 SW '6-7 400 200 0 100(3) 50(3) 0 25
- Clinton Cototry Clte 1 R2 SW- 8-9~ 250- 150 0 125(4) 75(4) 0 25 Little Galilee Christian 1 R3 WSW 10-11 375 125 0 125(S) 42(5) 0 25 Assencly Church Camp Weldon Springs State Park 1 R4 SW' 5-6 4840 900 0 1383(6) 257(6) O 48 Clinton Lake Recreational .I' Areal 2)-
Capp Quest 'R5 W 1-2 250 68 0 160(7) 20 0 11 Conservation Hdgrs. R6 ESE 2-3 108 29 4 22 9 1 60 Lane Day Use Area R7 S 3-4 98 26 0 20 8 0 19 Clinton Marina R8 SSE l-2 2142 578 72 437 165 21 902 Mascoutin Recreation Area R9 ESE 2-3 5449 1471 184 1112 420 53 60 Northfork Boat Access R10 PNW 1-2 192 52 6 39 15 2 49 Northfork Canoe Access Rll N 2-3 98 26 3 20 8 1 6 Parnell Boat Access R12 ENE 6-7 172 46 6 35 13 2 903
- Peminsula Area R13 SW 2-3 123 33 0 25 10 0 904 Tail Water Fishing Area R14 SW 3-4 176 48 6 36 14 2 62 Visitor Center ' R15 W4W 0-1 618 167 21 '.83( 7) 48 6 11 Weldon Boat Access R16 E 4-5 514 13 9 17 305 40 5 50 Westside Boat Access R17 WSW 2-3 441 119 15 90 34 5 905 Cavalry United Pentecostal Church Cang R18 NW 9-10 2 500 0 2 9(8) 0 55 Sources:
Total Recreational 16,zes W T 3DI!r W RT
- 1. From Illinois Power Company officials.
(2) Sumner weekend populations for all Clinton Lake Recreational Areas are calculated by multiplying the ntaber of parking spaces by 3.5 passengers per vehicle and by 1.4 for a 40X overflow of parking capacity. The vehicle demand for other time periods is based on 3.5 persons per vehicle. (3) Vehicle denand is calculated by using a factor of 4 persons per vehicle. (4) Vehicle demand is calculated by using a factor of 2 occupants per vehicle, based on conversation with the ground superintendent. (5) Vehicle demand is calculated by using a factor of 3 occtpants per vehicle, based on conversation with Gene Jenson. (6) Vehicle demand is calculated by using a factor of 3.5 occtpants per velcle, based on conversation with Dave Herzog. (7) Ntmoers include buses, with a capacity of 80 passergers per bus. (0) Vehicle demand is calculated by using a factor of 60 children per bus. (9) Point of entry onto the evacuation network. 4283C A3-3
n. [:
?g TRANSIENT POPULATION APO EHICLE DEMAPO ESTIMATES (cont.)
- HOTEL / MOTEL FACILITIES WITHIN TFE CLINTON POER STATION EPZ -
Reference Distance
.: Municipality Name/ Address' .(2) (3) (4)
Sourm Number Sector (elles) Population Vehicle Demand Node Clinton- Taylor-Magill Hotel and Restaurant 1 R19 W 6-7 38 25 10 Route 54W Town & Country N tel'~ l . R20 , WSW 7-8 42 28 10 - Route 54W Wye Motel- 1' R21 WSW 7-8 29 19 44 Route 54E R & R Motel 1 R22 ' WSW 7-8 20 13 10 320 E Van Buren - Total Hotel / Motel '12 9 85 Sources:
- 1. From Illinois Power Company officials.
(2) Population is calculated at 1.5 persons per room. (3) Vehicle demand is calculated at i vehicle per room. (4) Point of entry onto the evacuation network. 4283C A3-4
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. . SPECIAL FACILITY P'OPULATION-'AND
. VEHICLE-DEMAN0! ESTIMATES y; ,
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'SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION Af0 VEHICLE DEMAtO ESTIMATES SCHOOL FACILITIES WITHIN TtE CLINTON POWER STATION EPZ Reference Distance' Population ( ) Vehicle Demand Municipality Name/ Address . Source Number Sector (miles) Students- Starf StudentsI3I.Starf ' ikxie I5)'
lClinton: Clinton High School 1 S1 WSW '7-8 587 65 10 65 44
' Route 54W ClintonJuniorFUghSchool 1 52 W 7-R 500 50 9 50 . 32 401 N. Center St.
Douglas Grade School 1 S3- W. 6-7 200 18 4 18 38 905 E. Main St. Lincoln Grade School l' S4 WSW 7-8 190 17 4 17 907 407 S. Jackson Washington Grade School 1 55 W 7-8 340 28 6 28 907 All N. Mulberry Webster Grade School 1 56 W 6-7 200 21 4 21 908 612 N. George t:apella .Wapella Junior & Senior 1 57 WNW 7-8 144 20 3 20 3 High School Wapella Grade School 1 58 WNW 7-8 194 19 4 19 5 North Poplar t::1 don DeLand-Weldon High School 1 ' 59 . ESE 8-9 97 25 2 25 58 RR1, Box 47 (Route 10) Deland-Weldon Grade School 1 S10 ESE 8-9 225 31 ~ 4 - 31 58 RR1, Box 47 (Route 10) Total Schools 2677 294 50 294 Sources:
- 1. From II'linois Power Company officials.
(2) Based on conversations with school officials by INM, June 1984
. (3) Based on a vehicle occupancy of 60 students per bus, per M. Strain, Clinton ESDA. '(4) Based on a vetilcle occupancy of 1 person per vehicle.
(5) Point of entry onto the evacuation network.
.~.281C A4-2
~
SNCIAL FACILITV H]PULATION AW WHICLE DENM) ESTINATES (cont.) NURS}NG HOW/HCSPITAL/J41L FACILITIES WITHIN TW CLINTON P0tER STATION EPZ Heference Distance PbpulationIII Vehicle Demand I3I
' Municipality' Name/ Address Source Number- Sector- (elles) Residents Staff Residents Staff 4 Clinton John Warner Ibspital. -1 HI WSW 7-8 52 100 422 West White 5 100' 40 Crestview Nursing ihne - 1 ' H2 .
. AR 3 W 6-7 108 26 45 '26 47 DeWitt County Jail- 1 H3 W 6-7 18 12 1 12 9(M Total Nursirg Home/ Hospital!.bil 178 138 51 138 Sourc';s:
- 1. From Illinois Power Conpany officials.
- 12) Population was verified through a telephone survey conducted by IM4 in Jtaw 1984.
.13) Vehicle '(4) Point demand of entry is calculated onto the. evacuationassuming 1 vehicle per staff member;.1 bus for every 40 ambulatory residents, and 1 ambulance for every 2 non-ambulatory. road network. 4284C A4-3
2-t APPENDIX 5 TRANSIENT AND SPECIAL FACILITIES LOCATION MAPS A5-1
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F~ APPENDIX 6 ROADWAY NETWORK LISTING AND CAPACITIES A6-1 .,
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V APPENDIX 7
- VEHICLE QUEUEING DURING SELECTED PERIODS FOR EVACUATION OF THE CLINTON POWER STATION PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ UNDER' WINTER WEEKDAY AND SUMMER' WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS'
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A ..j - )' j yp 4 LEGEND SCAT.E IN MILES aremr-s EPZ BOUNDARY r--m N EVACUA710N ROUTES l- o 1 2 3 b NETWORK NCDES l essesseessei VEHICLE QUEUEING i Vehicle Queueing at T=60 Minutes During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions 1 l i l A7-2 I L
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"'**"^""""
d) NETWORK MODES y y ............ VEHICLE QUEUEING INSERT - Vehicle Queueing at T=60 Minutes During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions
s
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h. 4 LEGEND SCALE IN MILES N N arsss EPZ BOUNDARY o 1 2 3 EVACUATION ROUTES h NETWORK NODES ssessssassa VEHICLE QUEUEING Vehicle Queueing at T=90 Minutes During ! Winter Weekday, Fair' Weather Conditions A7-4 f- -t- - * - - . - -e--.,,g-wi-*p-g4e-.ww-9-e--y-wr-mg- ,w-+.
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44 ' 'M s I ! I j 4 LEGEND I N ^*"^"*"""' h NETWORK NODES i Y { e s s e s....... VEHICLE QUEUEING i INSERT - Vehicle Queueing at T=90 Minutes
- During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions l
l
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4 LEGEND SCALE IN MILES N "'""*""""^"' ' O 1 2 3 summmummme EVACUATION ROUTES
! NETWORK NODES sesessisessi VEHICLE QUEUtilNG Vehicle Queueing at T=120 Minutes During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions A7-6
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M 4 LEGEND N "'^"^""""'"* b NETWORK NODES Y Y essen ussi VEHICLE QUEUEING INSERT - Vehicle Queueing at T=120 Minutes During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions -
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l 4ma LEGEND SC ALE IN M'LES ' ersema EPZ BOUNDARY I M N o 1 2 3 EVACUATION ROUTES NETWORK NODES sessesseessi VEHICLE QUEUEING Vehicle Queueing at T=150 Minutes During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions A7-8
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! N ' ' * * " ^ " * " " "
h NETWORK NODES ' f Y i Y ........... VEHICLE QUEUEING i INSERT - Vehicle Queueing at T=150 Minutes l During Winter Weekday, Fair Weather Conditions i
e i
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4 LEGEND SCALE IN MILES so-- EPZ BOUNDARY N N EVACUATION ROUTES o 1 2 3 b NETWORK NODES assessesseei VEHICLE OUEUEING Vehicle Queueing at T=60 Minutes During Summer Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions A7-10
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- b NETWORK NODES k Y Y m esessessi VEHICLE QUEUEING i
! INSERT - Vehicle Queueing at T=60 Minutes ! During Summer Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions 1
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