ML20087Q077

From kanterella
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Forwards Draft Severe Accident Risk Assessment Pages That Will Be Included in Suppl 3 to Be Submitted on 840410 Per Suppl 1 to Des (NUREG-0974)
ML20087Q077
Person / Time
Site: Limerick  Constellation icon.png
Issue date: 04/06/1984
From: Kemper J
PECO ENERGY CO., (FORMERLY PHILADELPHIA ELECTRIC
To: Schwencer A
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RTR-NUREG-0974, RTR-NUREG-974 NUDOCS 8404100283
Download: ML20087Q077 (12)


Text

"*

  • i PHILADELPHIA ELECTRIC COMPANY 2301 MARKET STREET P.O. BOX 8699 PHILADELPHIA, PA.19101 APR 061984 1215)841-4502 VICE# RESIDENT 4.NGeNE E R4NG AND MESE ARCM Mr. A. Schwencer, Chief Docket Nos.: 50-352 Licensing Branch No. 2 50-353 Division of Licensing U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Suoject: Limerick Generating Station, Units 1&2 Severe Accident Risk Assessment (SARA)

References:

(1) Letter from J. S. Kemper to A. Schwencer dated March 13, 1984.

(2) Telecon among L. Hulman and J. Reid (NRC), G. Kaiser (NUS), and G. Daebeler, S. Gibbon, W. McElroy and J. Phillabaum (PECO) on March 22, 1984.

(3) NUREG-0974, Limerick Draft Environmental Statement Supplement ho. 1.

File: GOVT l-1 (NRC)

Dear Mr. Schwencer:

Attached are draft SARA pages (Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 17) that will be included in SARA Supplement 3 which will be submitted on April 10, 1984 as stated in the reference (1) letter. Also attached is a table reflecting the summary of point estimate results developed as part of this revised analysis in a format consistent with the information presented on page N-4 of reference (3).

As agreed upon in the reference (2) conference call, this letter provides assurance that the . SARA conclusions have not changed significantly.

Sincerely, N

JLP/gra/040384315 cc: See Attached Service List

(

so";\,

8404100283 840406 PDR ADOCK ' 05000352 D- PDR .

a

.. .e. .

v. ; . - -

- cca L Judge Iawrence' Brenner -(w/ enclosure)'

tJudge Peter'A. Morris' (w/ enclosure) iJudge. Richard F. Cole. -(w/ enclosure)

~

Troy'B1-Conner, Jr., Esq. (w/o. enclosure)-

1 . Ann P. Hodgdon, Esq. (w/ enclosure)

~ Mr. Frank R.. Rcxnano (w/o enclosure)

!Mr. Robert L'.-Anthony ~ (w/o enclosure)

Mr. MarvinEI. Iewis' (w/o enclosure)

Charles W.'Elliot,'Esq. (w/ enclosure)-

Zori G. Ferkin, Esq.'

(w/o enclosure)

Mr. Thcznas Gerusky - ~(w/o enclosure)

. Director, Penna., Emergency (w/o enclosure)

Management. Agency Mr. - Steven P. Hershey (w/o enclosure)

Angus Love, Esq..f . , L'(w/o enclosure)>

Mr. Joseph H. White, III (w/o enclosure)

David.Wersen,-Esq. (w/o enclosure)-

Robert J. Sugarman, Esq. (w/o enclosure)

Spence W. Perry, Esq. (w/o enclosure)

-Jay M.'Gutierrez, Esq. '(w/o enclosure)'

Atomic Safety.& Licensing ,(w/o enclosure)

. Appeal Board

. Atcznic Safety & Licensing - (w/o enclosure)

Board Panel.

Docket & Servi Section' (w/o enclosure)

Martha W. Bush,-Esq. .(w/ enclosure) .

-James Wiggins (w/o enclosure)-

Mr. Timothy R. S. Canpbell _.(w/o enclosure)

Phyllis'Zitzer (w/ enclosure)

W x

c.

'l 4

k

,f'"

-i

>s t J t .,

3 . J

[

. - ., r na . . , 2

$!.(I J yy uruJ L

'1 -

i i tilli1  ::IsitiI i iiilasiI i

iilillI i i i n sis 10-5 _

~

Upper estimate _

10-6 ,

3 -

2 A - Median estimate -

u.

10-7 --

~ ""

, Lower estimate 10-8 __ __

10~8

' ''l ' ''l ''' ( ' ' ' ' ' ' 'i 4

10 0 10 1

102 10 3 10 105 Number of earty fatalities, N Figure 1. CCDFs for early fatalities from internal and external initiating events.

(Revised Figure 12-6 of LGS-SARA)

J Ol'.D l,:,,' r;;u_ l'

a

[b/ LFM c,a L 4 .

n. t g;> y?..'-) /q _- a ['aIJ ; v2J

- 3 NN'.yd b.

1 -

1 I I IIIIIl I

IiiIllil i I I IIIIIl iiiIIIIIl I I I LIIII 10-5 _

10-6 _

1> [ Upper estimate 2 -

A - _

E -

g e

u.

10-7 - Median estimate E  ! h Lower estimate

/ _

10-8 _

10-8 '" ' ' ' ' ' " ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' " ' '"'

4 2 3 105 100 10 1

10 10 10 Number of early fatalities. N Figure 2. CCDFs for early fatalities from the internal initiating events of the LGS PR A.

(Revised Figure 12-7 of LGS-SARA) m3 p - . . . . ,3

[!2 4- f.  ; ;g !J 0 h A ,

T')l'A-aQ !. Lf' p E,

=.:b Pid _[

I d

- i e a isili1 i

i i sinI i

iiisisI iiiiIlliI i i i Iill 10-5 _,

- Upper estimate -

10-0 -

7, -

Z -

A - -

}2 u.

10-7 _-

Median estimste 10-8 _

10-8 4 0 30 1

10 2 10 3 10 105 10 Number of early fatalities, N Figure 4. CCDFs for early fatalities from seismic initiating events.

(Revised Figure 12-9 of LGS-SARA)

Da, f T=:n=;a g3 4 7..

b

, , , . - . ~ . . .

d DRAFr '

10 -

e aiisigl i IIIillil i 6 i tilll I

iiitilll i i Ilati

- Upper estimate -

10-5 Median estimate

! I

- Lower estimate -

10-6 -

~ ~

1, - -

t. -

2 .- -

A - -

E _ -

5 e

u.

10-7 --- -

10-8 _

10-8 4 0 1 2 3 10 10 5 10 10 10 10 Number ofausser' fatalities, N Figure 5. CCDFs for latent-cancer fatalities from internal, seismic, and fire initiating events.

(Revised Figure 12-10 of LGS-SARA)

, 7:-g- fp [; ,a u s - -j a y . .

. "y

l . . , ,,

w 9: [.?%A . .J i

o b b_t 10 4 i i i i i :::::

i iiiiiiili i s i nisili i i s a isivi Uppe'r estimate l i s a isipl -

10-5 - Median estimate

/  :

N  :

Lower estimate 10-6 ,

-. - ~

~

T -

g -

1 l z -

^ -

i'T i g -

i g e

u.

10-7 --

l I

10-8 _

l ..

10-9 ' ''i ' "i 2 3

' ' ' ' ' ' ' 'i 4

5 0 1 10 10 10 10 10 10 Number of latent fatalities, N Figure 6. CCDFs for latent-cancer from internal initiating events.

l (Revised Figure 1211 of LGS-SARA) l a R.n :d/3p a %

.m_

l l 1 b"4J i.

l W' .

a : ma4 %- A

/-

r

. .1' 0 4%a t. aJ _ dj.

204_ -

i i i iniini i i i i silit I

i i i i1333[

I i333333[

3 8 8 l88 1

10-5 _

Upper estimate -

~ _

6 -- -

107 , -

' Median estimate

/ - ,

2 - -

z -

A  ; "

s -

g -

?

u. , -

gg7 _ . Lower estimate ,

/

_ r.

s ,

', - -~ -

.y '

+

p * ^ _ i* ,

10-8' - --"- .,

pm _o -W  ? /

  • ~

~

p f'

i / -

- < s v

/ <

g i 'sgitati! k riit te!

i t i I f f til i 1If i t'l f~l i 18 H' 10 O 10 1

,f

- 102 t$ .~.

1d f

_r 10 5

~

- Number *of latent fatalities, N

~ ' ,-

Figu' re 7. CCDFs f6i latent-cancar fatalities from fire initiating events.

- (Revised Figure 12-12 of LGS-SARA) s iM l,,

y ., ,_ .

._ < =3 .t

~$

h. G. .~,.;--

D R A B-2 104 i  : i i

- i i :::::1 sisii,I i i : ::::I isinigiI e i s iiisi Upper estimate 10-5 - f

I

~ ~

Median estimate

- / -

10-6 -

3 -

.-t - -

z - -

^ -

E - -

g e

l l 10-7 --

Lower estimate i

i 10-8 __

' ''"' ' I I" ' ' '" ' ' ' "

. 10-8 4 10 0 10 1

10 2 10 3 10 10 5 Number of latent fatalities, N Figure 8. CCDFs for latent-cancer fatalities form seismic initiating events.

(Revised Figure 1213 of LGS SARA)

_ g a

.nrhr:aL_ d=s l/~n .] L

o .

r}*::2., 3

,),

,T -v. j
  • us .

Q f,,

104 i i i i s iii iiisii1 i i i sisiI iiisiisI i i i sisiI _

w

- Upper estimate -

10-5 _

- Median estimate

/  :

Lower estimate 10-6 .-

7 -

z A - -

E e

u.

10-7 . - -

l I

l 10-8

~

10-8 3 4 5 10 0 go 1 102 10 10 10 Number of latent-cancer fatalities. H l

j Figure 10. CCDFs for latent cancer fatalities (excluding thyroid cancer),

population a- 50 rniles, all initiating events.

l' (Revised Figure 1215 LGS-SARA) p

%.20 r'n~.au.

t  ? a DI'DLeT 3 L L _ - _ . . - _ .. _...- . - -__________

1 .

l'

l O l a! Q u" 'd 10-6 _

10 -

't _

Upper estimate

} _

~

?

i ~

E o

x

-E .-

~1 10-8 _

Median estimate I I  ! I I 10-9 2 4 6 8 10 Distance downwind, miles Figure 17 Individual risk of early fatality as a function of distance.

(Revised Figure 12-22 of LGS-SARA)

, gm L1 +,p;2-A

.a <  :

, ) 0I n 'l

'o 's Revision of Page N-4 of DES i

Risk per reactor-year Type of risk Revised Original

1. Early fatalities with supportive 3.2-4 3.3-4 medical treatment (persons)
2. Latent cancer fatalities excluding thyroid (persons) 50-mile (80-km) region 2.1-2 2.3-2 Entire region 3.3-2 3.0-2 4
3. Latent thyroid cancer fatalities (persons)

I 50-mile (80-km) region 5.0-3 5.0-3 Entire region 6.4-3 6.3-3

4. Whole body person-rens 4

50-mile (80-km) region 261 295 Entire region 444 510

5. Cost of offsite mitigation 1.6+4 2.1+4 neasures (1980 dollars) l

'I 4

1

=

'I 5

-c._ _ J