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Forwards Revised Description of Economic & Social Effects of Crbr Const & Operation Reflecting Latest Plant Cost Info. Info Will Be Included in Amend 14 to Environ Rept
	ML20079F913
Person / Time
Site:	Clinch River
Issue date:	06/01/1982
From:	Longenecker J; ENERGY, DEPT. OF
To:	Check P; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	HQ:E:82:020, HQ:E:82:20, NUDOCS 8206080259
	Download: ML20079F913 (41)
	v • d • e

_ _ _.

Sa#J Department of Energy l

Washington, D.C. 20545 Docket No. 50-537 HQ:E:82:020 JUN 0 1 19p Mr. Paul S. Check, Director CRBR Program Office Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.

20555

Dear Mr. Check:

CRBRP, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS OF PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION Enclosed please find a revised description of the economic and social effects of CRBRP construction and operation reflecting the latest plant cost infonnation.

This information will be included in Amendment XIV of the Environmental Report.

Sincerely, eht'A k.

rJi Jo n R. Longene ir, Manager Licensing & Enytd nmental Coordination Office of Nuclear Energy Enclosure cc:

Service List Standard Distribution Licensing Distribution t.

QO 8206000259 020601 PDR ADOCK 05000

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..f N r;:n d..XIV; Mny 1982' 8.0 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL F.FFECTS OF PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION The information presented in this section azid Appendix C represents the results of socioeconomic studies by the Project that span a number of years.

The Project's initial assessment of socioeconomic impacts of the CRBRP Project was refined and revised for Amendment V of this document.

The present amendment updates the Amendment V assess-ments and complements the analysis with results from a series of comparative case studies.

This section contains a summary of qualitative' and quantitative assess-ments of demographic and socioeconomic effects of the project at the peak of plant construction in 1987 on a study area comprised of portions of Anderson, Knox, Loudon, and Roane Counties.

Appendix C extends this assessment to include effects during plant operation and compares these.

construction and operation effects with thos,e resulting under a higher work force influx assumption.

Results reported here follow from an It

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assumption of normal levels of competition for area labor (26 percent inmover rate), whi]e those reported in the appendix also include those based upon higher levels of competition (40 percent inmover rate).

8.1 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS OF SIT ~E AREA Relevant social aspects of existing geographic, demographic, and economic conditions of the area surrounding the CRBRP Site are described in the following subsections.

Where feasible, past trends and future projections are discussed to provide a background for the evaluation of the effects of plant construction and operation.

Major emphasis is placed on the study area where most of the impact is anticipated.

It should be recog-nized however, that this project is of national importance and therefore has additional broader effects.

O 8.1-1

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Amend _XIVi 8.2.2.1 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME

""Y One of the main secondary benefits from any project the size of the CRBRP Project is the effect it will have in terms of economic expansion.

More specifically, how many new jobs it will create and, consequently, how much it will add to local income.

(The estimated number of persons required for the construction and operation phases of the CRBRP Project are presented in Table 8.2-1. )

Estimated income, based on 1981 dollar values, is shown in Table 8.2-2.

The total income which can be expected to be' generated by the construc-tion force alone is $352,100,000 with an additional $51,200,'000 and

$92,700,000 for the operations and project office (including contractor support) groups, respectively, through.1997. The single largest amount 14 of annual income, S119,200,000, will occur during the peak year of con-struction activity.

The combined total income for all groups over the 10 14-year period amounts to $496,000,000.

9 Considering the long-term benefits, the salaries of -the operational force can be extended over the 30-year life of the plant.

For. example, in addition to the initial 14-year period outlined in Table 8.2-2, the permanent employees can expect to receive another $117,300,000 between 1997 and 2020. This results in a total of $613,300,000 received from 14 wages and salaries during construction and operation of the plant.

The above figures are useful in comparing relative contributions of individual segments of the work force.

S 2.2.2 INDUCED EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME There are a variety of effects that cannot be directly attributed to the increased employment or income created by a new nuclear facility.

This is evidenced by the many recent attempts to measure indirect or j

" induced" impact with the aid of economic and employment multipliers.

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' Amend. XIV.

May.1982_

8.3 ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COSTS If the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant is to be an asset to the area and the nation as a whole, the benefits derived from the construction and operation must ultimately exceed the costs.

These costs include not only the capital investment for equipment, material and labor, but also the inherent social costs related to any new industrial development of this type.

There has been increasing realization, for example, that industrial growth can bring rising social-economic costs in terms of overcrowded housing, schools and highways, as well as noise, air and water pollution.

Although these variables are much more difficult to measure than dollar values assigned to the economics of construction and operation, they must be considered in any complete impact evaluation.

P 6.3.1 INTERNAL COSTS 10 The CRBRP will be an asset to the nation.

Even thoulh the direct bene-

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fits derived from the CRBRP may not, by themselves, be of such value in the short run as to offset the cost of construction and, operation, the development of a viable breeder industry will justify tile overall costs and make the development of a new industry possible with great' benefits for the future.

Internal cost figures for the CRBRP will ultimately reflect the cost of solving the problems of achieving reliable electrical generation with LMFBR technology along with the environmental considerations of assuring clean and safe power generation.I Project cost estimates are if.-asented in Table 8.3-1 which shows a plant investment of 52,503,200,007 In addition, the 5818,100,000 for develop-14 ment costs and the positive net balance of operating revenue and operating costs of $124,800,000 bring the total program costs to $3,196,500,000.

j 14 I

O 8.3-1

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s Amend. XIV 8.3.2 EXTERNAL COSTS External costs are of two basic kinds.

Those resulting from the activi-

- ties which occur during the temporary construction phase of the project are typicaBy costs of short-term duration, while those associated with the more or less pennanent operations phase are usually costs of long-term duration.

These two kinds of external costs. are assessed in the j

foDowing subsections.

A more detailed assessment is reported in Appendix C to this document.

8.3.2.1 COSTS OF SHORT-TERM DURATION Direct and indirect employment associated with the CRBRP Project will result in approximately 5,500 employees to fiU the positions that are scheduled and estimated for the peak of construction activity in 1987..

14 The employment of many of these employees will have, impacts upon the economic and social systems existing within the area.

10; eh Impacts of primary concern are those associated with the movement of employees into the area.

These impacts include changesso the current relationship between the supply and demand for facilities and services provided by private enterprise and local government such as housing and schools.

These and other kinds of effects of the CRBRP Project upon the existing social-economic conditions within the area are discussed in subsequent subsections.

i Not all workers associated with the CRBRP Project will relocate to a new residence within the area.

It is estimated that approximately 25 percent-of the peak work force requirements for manuals, non-manuals, and subcontractors, and 50 percent for project office, contractor support, and operations personnel (over and above the number of workers already in the area as of February 1981) will be fined by workers who relocate from outside the area to a new residence within the area.

This 'e. stimate 8.3-2

Amend. XIV s

s' May 1982,, _!..

h While' the school enrollments resulting from the CRBRP Project contribute to the crowding in some systems and grades, these new sttidents alone do not create unfavorable conditions.

A more reflective analysis is reported in Appendix C.

8.3.2.1.3 TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS Table 8.3-6 shows the projected increases in traffic volume generated by the day shif t on the principal highway segments in the area (see Figure 8.3-1).

These volumes are based on the peak construction employment.

Since an estimated 80 percent of the construction work force will work day shift, the day shift commuters are anticipated to contribute the major CRBRP related traffic loads to the surrounding highway network.

The following assumptions were used as a basis to evaluate the traff2c situation :

1.

No sponsored van and bus program.

2.

Commuter vehicle occupancy = 2.0.

3.

No truck deliveries to construction site during day shift commuting hours.

The CRBRP construction work shift hours will be staggered such 4.

that the CRBRP commuter traffic will not coincide with the existing (non-CRBRP related) peak hour traffic on the significantly impacted highway segments.

5.

Prior to significant construction employment buildup, the following intersections will be upgraded to sufficiently accommodate the projected traffic:

State Route 95 and State Route 58.

a.

b.

State Route SS and Bear Creek Road (CRBRP Access Road).

State Route 95 and Bear Creek Road (CRBRP Access Road).

c.

6.

Annual increase in non-CRBRP related traffic volumes = 2 percent.

7.

Peak year of construction = 1987.

l13 14 8.3-6

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Amend. XIV May 1982 of 90_ students, less than 1 percent of the school system capacity.

During the peak year of plant constructiori, only the Knox County, School System

(

is expected to have enrollments exceeding capacities 'by a noticeable level, and even in this case it would be only about 4 percent (550 students).

jl4 Table 2.2-8 shows the projected school system excess capacities including.

the project-related students for migration condition B.

During the peak yet.r of construction, only the Knox County School System could experience enrollment levels noticeably exceeding system wide capacity.

The over-enrollment for this system could be about 6 percent of the school system capacity (930 students).

Other school systems -that would have enrollments 10))4 exceeding capacities during the peak year of construction would be the Harriman and Loudon County systems.

Harriman would experience over-enrollment by about 5 percent with the Loudon County School System l14 overenrollment only about 3 percent of the projected school system capacity l14 for the school year coinciding with the peak year of plant construction.

e i

C-19

Amend. XIV May 1982 TAB 1I 2.2-3 CRBRP PROJECT RELATED PIQUIPIMENTS FOR $$HOOL TEACERS TOR MIGRATION CONDITION A Peak Year of Plant Construction" Typical Year of Plant Operation System Students Teachers Students Teachers Anderson K

1 0

1-6 8

0 1

7-12 6

+

1 K-12 15 2

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Clinton K

2 O

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K-6 15 2

Oak Ridge K

5

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4 O

7-12 52 1

5 K-12 100 2

10 0

Roane K

7 1

1-6 65 2

6 7-12 SE 2

5 K 42 130 4

12 s

Harriman K

2 O

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7-12 15 1

~O K-12 30 3

Knox K

16 1

1 1-6 105 4

10 s

7-12 116 3

24 K-12 240 8

22 Knoxville K

2 0

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7-12 15 2

K-12 30 3

Loudon K

4 0

1-6 20 1

2 7-12 16 2

K-12 40 1

4 Lenoir City K

1 0

0 1-6 7

1 7-12 12 1

):- 12 20 2

Total K-12 620 15 60 0

' Tennessee pupil per-teacher standards are 25 for X, 30 for 1-6, and 35 for 7-1 ?

" Peak year of plant construction expected to occur in 1987 l]4

~ lant operation expected to begin in 1990. CRsRP project-related requ#

P for students and teachers for o.agration condition A are the sa.e for all years l14 ire.ents af ter the first year of plant eperation.

Less than one-half.

Amend. XIV May 1982

=

TABLE 2.2-4 CRERP PROJECT RELATED PIQUIRESNTS TOR SgM00L TEACKERS FOR t:ICRATION CONDITION B Tenk Year of Plant Construction" Tveical Year of Plant Operation Svstem Stueents teachers Students Teachers Anderson K

2 0

0 1-6 13 1

)

7-12 10 1

K-12 25 2

Clinten K

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2 0

K-6 25 1

2 Cak Ridge K

9 1

1-6 64 2

4 7-12 77 2

5 K-12 150 4

10 Roane K

13 1

1-6 97 3

6 7-12 90 2

5 K-12 200 5

12 Earrican K

3 0"

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2 7-12 25 1

1 K-12 50 2

3 30 Knox

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1-6 171 6

10 7-12 182 5

11 K-12 380 12 22 Knoxville K

2 O

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1 7-12 25 1

2 K-12 50 2

3 Loucon K

5 0

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2

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2 K-12 65 2

4 Lenoir City K

2 O

O 1-6 12 1

7-12 21 1

1 K-12 35 1

2 Total K-12 980 29 60 0

Tenoessee pupil-per-teacher standards are 25 for K. 30 for 1-6, and 35 fbr 7-12.

"Feak year of plant construction expected to occar in 1987 h4

~

Plant operation expceted to begin in199C :Rane proicet-related require.ent.

l14 for students and teachers f or migratton condation B are the same for all years after the tarst year et plant operation.

Less than one-half.

C-23

Amend. XIV May 1982 TABLE 2.2-5 CRBRP PROJECT REMTED REQUIREMENTS FOR SCH@L CLASSROOMS TOR ti1GRATION CONDITION A Peak Year of Plant Construction" Typical Year of Plant operacion

System Stucents Classrooms Students Classrooms Anderson K

1 0

0 1-6 8

1 7-12 6

1 K-12 15 2

Clinten K

2 O

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K-6 15 2

Cik Ridge K

5 1

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4 7-12 52 1

5 K-12 100 2

10

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7 1

+

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6 7-12 58 2

5 K-12 130 4

12 Ha rrima n r..

K 2

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K-12 30 3

~

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16 1

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10 7-12 116 3

II K-12 240 8

22 Intxville K

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K-12 30 3

Lcudon K

4 0

r, 1-6 20 1

2 5

7-12 16 2

K-12 40 1

4 Lenoir City K

1 0

0 1-6 7

1 7 12 12 1

K-12 20 2

Total K-12 620 15 60 0

' Tennessee pupil per-teacher standards are 25 for I, 30 for 1-6, and 35 for 7-12

" Peak year of plant construction expected to occur in 1987, l14

" Plant operation erpected to begin in1990. CRzRP project-related require.ents for students and teachers for migration condition A are the same for all years l14 after the first year of plant operation.

Less than one-half.

__.__ $-_$ b._____ ___.- _-- -..

Amend." XfV

)

May 1982 TABLE 2.2-6 CRBRP PROJECT ELATED REQUIPIMENTS FOR SCHOOL CLASSROOMS FOR MIGRATION CONDITION B Peak Year of Plant Construction" Typical Year of Plant Operation System Students Classrooms students Classrooms Anderson K

2 0

1-6 13 0

1 7-12 10 K-12 25 1

2 Clinton E

3 0

16 22 0

1 2

K-6 25 1

2 Cak Ridge K

9 1-6 64 1

2 4

7-12 77 2

K-12 150 5

4 10 Ronne K

13 1-6 97 1

3 6

7-12 90 2

K-12 200 5

5 12 Harriman g

3

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2 S

7-12 25 1

1 K-12 50 2

3 g

Y Knex K

27 1

1 1-6 171 6

10'-

7-12 182 5

11 '

K-12 380 12 22 Knoxville K

4 0

1-6 23 0

1 1

7-12 23 1

2 K-12 50 2

3 l

Loudon K

5 0

l 1-6 33 1

2 7-12 27 1

2 K-12 65 2

4 I.cncir City K

2 0

1-6 12 0

1 7-12 21 1

1 K-12 25 1

2 Total K-12 980

~29 60 0

' Tennessee pupil per-teacher standards are 25 for X, 30 for 1-6

, and'25 for 7-12.

" Peak year of plant construction erpected to occur in 1987

{l4

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'Less than one-half.

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n r

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Amend. XIV

.May 1982 TABLE 2.2-8 PROJECTED SCHOOL SYSTEM EXCESS CAPACITIES AND INCREMEhTAL CRBRP PROJECT ENROLLMENT FOR PEAK YEAR OF PLANT CbNSTRUCTION (MIGRATION CONDITION B)+

1 Without Project With Project System Excess Capacity Project Enrollment Excess Capacity Anderson 720 25 695 Clinton 188 25 163 Oak Ridge 200 150 50 Roane 1,170 200 970 Harriman

-62 50

-112 Knox

-550 380

-930 14 Loudon

-36 65

-1 01 Lenoir City 57 35 22 2

+ Peak year of plant construction projected to occur in 1987.

The Knoxville City System is not included in this table because they were unable to provide projections for 1987 because of the uncertainty of Knoxville's annexation proposals.

The K-12 project enrollment is 50 for this system.

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ML20079F913

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