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Testimony of Pb Herr on Applicant 830715 Direct Testimony 1 & NRC Testimony of T Urbanik Re Evacuation Time Estimates
	ML20077H933
Person / Time
Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	08/05/1983
From:	Herr P; MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS, COMMONWEALTH OF
To:	;
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ML20077H929	List: ML20077H928; ML20077H933;
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	ISSUANCES-OL, NUDOCS 8308120068
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i Rebuttal Testimony of Philip B. Herr '" A##i before the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board in the catter of Public Service Company of New Hampshire, et.al.,

(Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2) , Docket Nos. 50-443 OL and 50-444 OL.

PI: Applicants' Direct Testimony No.1 filed July 15, 1983, and NRC Staff Testimony of Dr. Thomas Urbanik II on restated NECNP III.12/III.13 i

August 5, 1983 I

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- 8308120063 830808 PDR ADtJCK 05000443 0 PDR

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Q.01 Please identify yourself and your background. !

A.01 My name is Philip B. Herr. I am principal in Philip B. Herr &

l Associates and an Associate Professor in the Department of Urban I

Studies and Planning at MIT. A statement of my qualifications was

attached to my direct testimony as Exhibit A.

l Q.02 What materials have you reviewed in preparation for this testi-j many?

l A.02 Applicants' Direct Testimony No. 1, filed July 15, 1983, its "xhibit 2, and the Testimony of Thomas Urbanik, II on Restated NEC'G III.12/III.13: Evacuation Time Estimates.

l Q.03 Applicants assert that it is unrealistic to assume that under degrading weather the beach area population would begin to depart

only when the signal to evacuate is given. (Applicants' Direct

! Testimony, at page 20). Please comment.

i A.03 The Applicants' assertion rests on the premise that degrading

, weather always triggers population leaving beach areas. That is contrary to my personal experience on these beaches. On July 3, l 1983 I observed dense fog which neither triggered population leaving the beaches nor even stemmed population arrival at the beaches. My own experience on other occasions has indicated that

] weather bad enough to impair traffic is not necessarily bad enough to cancel beach plans. It is not at all unrealistic to analyze the contingency of beaches at capacity under adverse weather at the time of an evacuation signal.

i Q.04 In Applicants' Exhibit 2, at page 6-7, it is asserted that "This

time reflects an extremely conservative estimate since the occur-i rence of a sudden rainstorm during a peak summer weekend period is j considered unlikely." Please comment.

3 A.04 Again, as discussed above, there is no necessity that the adverse weather be " sudden" for the circumstance to be serious. Further-more, the germane question is not how likely adverse weather is, but how likely adverse weather is conditional up_Qn a core melt accident. As discussed in my Direct Testimony at A.04, prelimi-nary results of a study commissioned by the Applicants indicate that area-wide power loss and core melt accidents at Seabrook Station are causally related. Since adverse weather and power loss are also causally related, the likelihood of adverse weather ,

prevailing is elevated conditional upon a core melt accident.

Adverse ste.mertime weather is not, as suggested, an unlikely ;

circumstance in the event of a core-melt accident.

, 0.05 In the Urbanik Testimony, at page 2, it is noted that summe r ad-l verse weather "is an unlikely scenario." Please comment.

A.05 The same comment applies as given above.

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0.06 In Case 14 of Applicants' Exhibit 2 estimates are made of evacua-tion time under summer weekend adverse weather conditions. Please comment regarding specifically weather-related. aspects of those estimates.

A. 06 First, the only adverse condition examined is the relatively benign one of fog or rain reducing road capacities by 30%. As testified by Chief Robert Mark, worse conditions are commonly observed at Seabrook, including flooding of one or more egress roads, a contingency not even mentioned (c.f. Mark's answer to q.9). Floeding as an interdicting possibility is corroborated by FERA, Flood Ea::ard Boundary Maps for the Town of Hampton, N.H.,

attached as Exhibits A-D.

Second, Applicants assume normal traffic controls, with no exploration of the potential evacuation time consequences of causal links among core melt accidents, adverse weather, and loss of the areawide power essential to those controls. See my Direct Testimony, at A.04. There is a substantial likelihood that, given adverse weather and a core-melt accident, there will also be a loss of area-wide power, a circumstance greatly inhibiting traffic movement.

""nird, the Applicants' estimate of over 9 hours1.041667e-4 days 0.0025 hours 1.488095e-5 weeks 3.4245e-6 months evacuation time fails to reflect exacerberating phenomena associated with such extraordinarly prolonged congestien, including:

a) vehicles running out of fuel or overheating as a result of lengthy stop-and-go operation in multi-hour traffic queues, re-sulting in disabled vehicles which reduce network capacity and further extend evacuation time; b) breakdown of driver considerateness and discipline, resulting in increased potential for obstruction of intersections, in turn leading to a " gridlock" of continuous congestion between and in, intersections, further extending evacuation times, and resulting

- in increased probability of slow-speed but disabling accidents, further extending evacuation times.

0.07 Ead you previously reviewed the analyses of simultaneaous beach evacuation contained in Applicants' Exhibit 2?

A.07 Yes. Yne analyses are identical to those cited as Reference 2 in my Direct Testimony, and discussed in A.07 through A.12 in that testimony. In that testimony, I noted that the demand forecast of transient population is very much understated, accidents and breakdowns were ignored but critical at this location, non-evac-uating traffic was ignored, transit-dependent population evacua-tion was essentially unstudied, and wide disparities in time estimates were found among studies, diminishing credibility of the estimates.

0.0E Do you have further observations on the Applicants' analyses of simultaneous beach evacuation?

A.0E Yes. Tne Applicants' use of a constant vehicle loading rate of 20 vehicles per minute per node (summer week-days for major employers being the only exception) is an unsupportable oversimplification of the mobilization and preparation times for such disparate locaticns as small beaches, large beaches, places of employment, and residential areas, and for both normal and adverse weather.

In each of those location types, the time necessary to act on warning is composed of altogether different elements, such as time for the family to reunite, which is an altogether different pheno-menon on weekends at the beach than during work hours at home, waiting for an employed household member to return. Rather than being based on analysis of such place-related activity, Appli-cants' preparation and mobilization time allowances are made a function of the number of nodes arbitrarily assigned to the net-work. Taus, the mobilization allowance is short at a small beach such as Sass Beach or Rye Beach and long at a large beach with few assigned entry nodes, such as North Beach. However, there is no reason to believe that actual mobilization will take longer at the larger beach.

Use of loading rates as a surrogate for mobilization and prepara-tion time would be justifiable if loading onto the network were the constraining factor on beginning evacuation, that is, if people could assemble themselves and their belongings faster than the network could accept them. However, Applicants' analysis clearly implies f aster loading than would result frca analysis of the actual preparation phenomenon. Vehicle demand for the 10 mile EPZ is approxbtely 90,000 vehicles (NUREG/CR-2903, Moeller et al, "An Independent As s e s smen t.. ." , at 5) , loaded through 136 entry nodes (Applicants' Exhibit 2 at 4-2), or 660 vehicles per node, or 33 minutes for loading at the average node. Even at the beaches, loading time apparently does not exceed one hour because of the large concentration of nodes assigned there (Again, the relationship between number of entry nodes and the time required to find children scattered along the beach is elusive.)

In sharp contrast, where preparation time has been carefully studied the results are far longer times. For example, FEMA-REP-3 "Dynacic Evacuation Analysis..." at 61 notes convergence of re-suits by two analysts at Indian Point and Zion, with 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months 30 minutes and 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months 10 minutes, respectively, for completing preparation, with median preparation times about half that icng, or triple the mean time imputed by a 20 vehicle per hour loading rate at Seabrook.

Because the beach preparation time phenomenon is so different from the others, lack of a direct measure of preparation time in beach evacuation time estimates yields unacceptable results.

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CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I, Jo Ann Shotwell, Esquire, counsel for Massachusetts E EUll AQ:33 Atworney General Francis X. Bellotti, hereby certify that qnrAugust 8, 1983, I made service of the Rebuttal Testimony of Philip 6DCHerzidndl Motion of Attorney General Francis X. Bellotti For Extension Of Timei To ' File Contentions On Fifteen New Hampshire Local Emergency Response Plans, by mailing copies thereof, postage prepaid, to the parties named below:
Helen Hoyt, Chairperson
~~Rep. Beverly Hollingworth Atomic Safety and Licensing Coastal Chamber of Commerce Board Panel -~~
209 Winnacunne: Road C.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Hampton, NE 03842 Washington, DC 20555 Dr. Emmeth A. Luecke* William s. Jordan, III, Esquire
Atom.c Safe:; and Licensing Diane Curran Board Panel Barmon & Weiss U.S. Nuclear Regulabbry Commission 1725 I Street, N.W.
~~Washington, DC 20555 Suite 506 Washington, DC 20006 Dr. Jerry Harbour~~
Edward L. Cross, Jr., Esquire Atomic Safety and Licensing Assistant Attorney General Board Panel Dana Bisbee, Esquire U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission . Assistant Attorney General Washington, DC 20555 Office of the Attorney General
~~. 208 State House Annex Concord, NH 03301 Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Roy P. Lessy, Jr., Esquire~~
~~Board Panel David A. Repka, Esquire~~
~~U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Robert G. Perlis, Esquire~~
~~Washington, D C 20555 Office of the Executive Legal~~
~~. Director U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555~~
~~By Express Mail i~~
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Atomic Safety and Licensing Robert A. Backus, Esquire l Board Panel
116 Lowell Street l U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission P.O. Box 516 Washington, DC 20555 Manchester, NH 03105 Philip Ahrens, Esquire Dr. Mauray Tye Assistant Attorney General Sun Valley Association I Department of the Attorney 209 Summer Street l General Haverhill, MA 01830 Augusta, ME 04333 4
~~David R. Lewis~~
~~Thomas G. Dignan, Jr., Esqui re * '~~
Atomic Safety and Licensing Robert K. Gad, III, Esquire **
Board Panel Ropes & Gray C.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 225 Franklin Street Rr. . E/W-439 Boston, MA 02110 Washington, DC 20555 Mr. John E. Tanser $s. Olive' L. Tash Des 29nated Representative of Designated Representative of
ne Town of Hampton One Town of Brentwood 5 Morningside Drive - R.F.D. 1, Dalton Road l Hampton, NH 03842 Brentwood, NH 03833 Roberta C. Pevear Edward F. Meany Designated Representative of Designated Representative of
~~the Town of Hampton Falls the Town of Rye~~
! Drinkwater Road 155 Washington Road Hampton Falls, NH 03844 Rye,, NH 03870 Mrs. Sandra Gavutis Calvin A. Canney Designated Re'presentative of City Manager the Town of Kensington City Hall RFD 1 126 Daniel Street East Kingston, NH 03827 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Patrick J. McKeon '
Jane Doughty Selectmen's Office .
Field Director 10 Central Road Seacoast Anti-Pollution League Rye, NH 03870 5 Market Street
- Portsmouth, NH 03801 Richard E. Sullivan, Mayor Docketing and Service Section j Town Hall Office of the Secretary Newburyport, MA 01950 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555
~~By Express Mail~~
~~By Hand Delivery on 8/9/83~~
Brian P. Cassidy Representative Nicholas J. Costello Regional Counsel 1st Essex District FEMA Region 1 Whitehall Road John W. McCormack Post Office Amesbury, MA '01913
& Courthouse -
Boston, MA 02109 Mr. Angie Machiros, Chairman Diana P. Randall
~~Newbury Board of Selectmen 70 Collins Street Town of Newbury, MA 01950 Seabrook, NH 03874 .~~
Patrick J. McKeon Anne Verge, Chairperson Chairman of Selectmen, Rye, Board of Selectmen New Hampshire Town Hall 10 Central Road South Hampton, NH 03842 Rye, NH 03870 Donald E. Chick Maynard B. Pearson Town Manager Board of Selectmen Town of Exeter 40 Monroe Street 10 Front Street Amesbury, MA 01913 New Hampshire 03833 Selectmen of North Hampton Mr. Daniel Girard Town of North Hampton Civil Defense Director New Hampshire 03862 25 Washington Street t Salisbury, MA 01930 Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Senator Gordon J. Humphrey i Pillsbury Street U.S. Senate Concord, NH 03302 Washington, D.C. 20510 (Attn: Herb Boynton) (Attn: Tem Burack)
Signed under the pains and penalties of perjury, this 8th day of August, 1983.
J nn Shotwell sistant Attorney General Environmental Protection Division Public Protection Bureau One Ashburton Place Boston, MA 02108 l
i
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ML20077H933

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