ML20054J106
| ML20054J106 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 06/21/1982 |
| From: | Morris R PUBLIC INTEREST RESEARCH GROUP, NEW YORK, UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20054J075 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8206280133 | |
| Download: ML20054J106 (12) | |
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l TESTIbON OF ICBEIR L. bORRIS ON BE!!AIF OF ' DIE UNION OF CIICERNED SCIEtEIS'IS AND ' DIE NBi YORK PUBLIC Ilnuer RESEAICI GROUP, INC.
REIATI?U 'IO BOARD CONITIEIOtE 3.1, 3.3, 3.6 JUNE 21, 1982 My nann is Ibbert L. bbrris, a registered professional engineer and traffic consultant, registered in eleven states including the State of New York. I have been qualified as an expert in my field in a number of jurisdictions, including the State of New York. My professional qualifications are appended to this statm ent.
I have reviewed reports concerning the Indian Point nuclear power station prepared by Parsons Brinckerhof Quade and Douglas, Inc. (hereinafter referred to as P-B), including " Evacuation Time Estimates for Areas Near the Site of Irdian Point Power Plants" (January 31, 1980),
"bbthodology to Estimate Ibadway Travel Tine During Evacuations " (January, 1981), and "Fbthodology to Calculate Evacuation Travel Tine Estimates for the Indian Point BTergency Planning Zone " (?bvember,1981). As a result of my review of these documents, I have the following emnents.
1 ) 'Ihe levels of service used by P-B, reportedly frun the Highway Capacity bunual (II.C.M.) do not correspond with the H.C.M.
For exanple, in the ?bvember 8206280133 820616 PDR ADOCK 05000247 Q
d 1981 report, P-B states that:
... (S)peeds would be low, flow would be unstable, and there would be stoppages of nrnentary duration.
The II.C.M. clearly states that when speeds drop below 30 miles per hour, the level of service is F, with capacities ranging from a nuximum value equal to level of service E down to zero. These slow speeds, in addition to the P-B descript1,o quoted above, can be roughly calculated using the P-B cvacuation speed formula:
free flow speed 0.25 (V/C)4 +1 The free flow speed at level of service D (P-B's upper level) is 30-35 miles per hour (II.C.M.). Using P-B's adverse weather capacities in all of the links that cross the five mile circle, and assuming that 85% of the 31,681 vehicles within that circle would try to evacuate, the V/C would be:
0.85 x 31,681
= 2.4 11, 240 and the evacuation speed, fran the fornula would be 3.2 - 3.8 miles per hour.
Even using P-B's good woather capacities, which are questionable (representing the nnxuuum values at level of service E in the H.C.M.), the average evacuation speed would be 19-22 miles per hour, also level of service F, not E.
For both tines and capacities, P-B should use level of service F, not E.
- 2) P-B has worked only with highway links, ignoring the traffic constraints of intersections. As a mininun, time penalties should be assigned to the link nodes, depending upqn the ntsnber of vehicles that would be crossing or merging with the principal traffic flow.
- 3) The ase by P-B of several conputer runs to arrive at the best system balance is an appropriate technique for evaluating normal daily traffic conditions-where drivers can make decisions to avoid congestion. Ebr an mergency evacuation, an unconstrained traffic assigment should be used.
4)
P-B has ruled out factors such as the percentage of trucks and the type of terrain in its analysis. 'Ihis is improper; the effect on capacity can be significant. Even if the normal proportion of trucks is mininal (there is no assurance of that ), a fully loaded bus has the same operating characteristic's as a large truck. If the proportion of trucks and buses is ten percent in rolling terrain, the capacity of a two-lane road would be reduced by alnest 30 percent.
- 5) An mergency evacuation traffic analysis should be based on a worst case condition. As noted in the points listed above, P-B has made assmptions that are inconsistent with energency conditions. For the purpose for which the reports were prepared, they have no validity. Standard traffic forecasting practice requires conservative assunptions to allow for unforeseen inpedinents to traffic flow in day-to-day operation.
P-B's use of optimictic assmptions would be inappropriate in normal circumstances and is particularly inappropriate in planning for an emergency situation.
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L ROBERT L. MORRIS Consultant in Transportation Planning
& Traffic Engineering P.O. Box 34230 Bethesda, Maryland 20817 (301) 299-6632 EDUCATION University of Maryland, B.S., Civil Engineering, 1949 University of Maryland, M.S., Civil Engineering, 1950 University of Bal *iaore, LL.B., 1957 EXPERIENCE Head, Master Plan Section, Department of Planning, Baltimore Acting Assistant Commissioner of Traffic, Baltimore Senior Planner - Transportation, Downtown Progreso, Washington, D.C.
Vice Presid'ent, Alan M. Voorhees & Associates PROFESSIONAL Institute of Transportation Engineers - Fellow ORGANIZATIONS Past President, Washington Section Past Chairman, Delegation to National Committee on Uniform Traffic Laws and Ordinances American Society of Civil Engineers - Fellow American Planning Association - Member American Institute of Certified Planners Transportation Research Board Urban Land Institute HONORARY Cosmos Club Faculty of Building of Great Britain - Fellow Lambda Alpha (Land Economics)
Tau Beta Pi (Engineering)
Phi Kappa Phi (Scholarship)
LECTURED AT American University CatMolic University George Washington University University of Maryland University of Texas at Arlington University of West Virginia University of Waterloo, Ontario Northern Virginia Community College
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-Robert L. Morris PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS Registered Professional Engineer Connecticut Delaware Florida Kentucky Maryland New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Tennessee Virginia' Member of the Bar-Maryland U.S. Supreme Court Qualified as Expert Witness, Traffic and Transportation Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Louisiana Maine Maryland Michigan New Hampshire New Jersey New York North Carolina dhio Pennsylvania Vermont Virginia Texas Utah
Robert L. Morris RESPONSIBLE STUDIES Downtown Transportation, Circulation and Accessibility Buffalo, New York Chicago, Illinois Clearwater, Florida Fort Lauderdale, Florida Kansas City, Missouri Louisville, Kentucky Salem, Virginia Salt Lake City, Utah Washington, D.C.
New Town Transportation Planning Columbia, Maryland Fort Lincoln, D.C.
Germantown, Maryland Lysander, New York Maumelle,- Arkansas Panther Valley, Pennsylvania Reston, Virginia Soul City, North Carolina West. Valley, Illinois Parking Studies Annapolis Charles Center, Baltimore Downtown Baltimore Inner' Harbor, Baltimore Chicago Johns Hopkins Hospital Louisville Vanderbilt University Washington, D.C.
Williamsport, Pennsylvania shopping Center Traffic Planning various Locations in:
Delaware Maryland Pennsylvania New Jersey Nbe York virginia Pedestrian Studies Oklahoma City-Salt Lake City Washington, D.C.
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Robert L. Morris Responsible Studies (Continued)
Traffic Planning Studies Falls Church, Virginia Germantown, Maryland Harristown, Pennsylvania Judiciary Square, D.C.
Mattawoman, Maryland Montgomery Village, Maryland Traffic Impact Studies District of Columbia Delaware Maryland Baltimore City Baltimore County Calvert County Carroll County Charles County Howard County Montgomery County Prince George's County Massachusetts New Jersey North Carolina Pennshlvania Virginia SiteAccessStudies(delphiaBicentennial Phila Washington Visitors' Center Battery Park City Southwest Washington Employment Area Suitland, Maryland Restaurant Access Studies Burger King Gino's Hamburger Hamlet
.La Potagerie Le Steak Marriott Roy Rogers Chancery Studies Bangladesh France Italy Japan Philippines Saudi Arabia
Robert L. Morris Responsible Studies (Continued)
Hospital Access Studies Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions vanderbilt University Veterans Administration, Little Rock Doctors Hospital, Washington, D.C.
Charleston, W. Va., Medical Center Accident and Safety Studies Connecticut District of Columbia Maryland Pennsylvania New York Virginia Transit Planning Minibus in Downtown W5shington Columbia, Maryland /
Bus Circulation Pla'n, Washington Subway Alignment, Washington Germantown Transitt Fairfax Minibus
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I-270 Corridor Highway Planning Traffic Assignment, Jones Falls Expressway Major Arterial Plan, Baltimore Gravity Model Analysis, Baltimore Prince George's Freeway Analysis Montgomery County Arterials l
Environmental Impacts i
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Nassachusetts Michigan New Ham,pshire North Carolina Pennsylvania Sough Carolina Utah Vermont Virginia Wisconsin i
6 Robert L. Morris i
Responsible Studies (Continued)
Model Cities Transportation Planning Rochester, New York Norfolk, Virginia l
Demonstration Project Design
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F Minibus F Street Plaza Mass Transit Information Traffic Laws and Ordinances Review and Analysis l
Buffalo, New York Macon, Georgia Augusta, Georgia Tallahassee, Florida Middlesex, New Jersey Jersey City, New Jersey Right Turn on Red 6
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Robert L. Morris PUBLICATIONS McVoy, Arthur D., Walter Thabit and Robert L. Morris, " Pedestrian Way Business Districts," The American City, March 1957 voorhees, Alan M.,
and Robert L. Morris, " Evaluating and Forecasting Travel for Baltimore by Use of a Mathematical Model,"
Highway Research Board Bulletin 224, 1959 Booth, James, and Robert L. Morris, " Transit versus Auto Travel in the Future," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, May 1959 Morris, Robert L.,
" Evaluating the Requirements for a Downtown Circulation System," Highway Research Board Bulletin 347, 1962 Morris, Robert L. and S. B. Zisman, "The Pedestrian, Downtown, and the Planner," Journal of the American Institute of Planners,,
August 1962 er i
Morris, Robert L.,
" Automobiles, Rapid Transit and the Future,"
American Motorist, September 1962 Morris, Robert L.,
" Traffic Considerations in Planning Central Business Districts," Traffic Engineering, June 1964.
(As Chairman of ITE Committee 6D-62)
Morris, Robert L.,
"The Motor Vehicle and Megalopolis U.S.A.,"
Law & Order, June 1965 i
Morris, Robert L.,
"The National Committee on Uniform Traffic Laws and Ordinances," Traffic Engineering, March 1966 Morris, Robert L., "The Handsome Semaphore of Iondon," Traffic j
Engineering, August 1966 Morris, Robert L.,
" Pioneer Profile, William L. Potts," Traffic Engineering, September 1966 Morris, Robert L.,
"The Signals of San Francisco," Traffic Engin-eering, March 1967 l
Morris, Robert L.,
"J. W. Arch Bollong," Traffic Engineering, June 1967 h
f Morris, Robert L.,
"Why Malls?" Traffic _ Engineering, August 1967
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Morris, Robert L., " Downtown: Part 1.
The Pulse," Nation's Cities, October 1967 j
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i Robert L. Morris Publications (Continued)
Morris, Robert L.,
" Downtown: Part 2.
Downtown's Nervous System,"
Nation's Cities, November 1967 Morris, Robert L.,
"The History of the Center Line," Traffic Engineering, November 1967 Morris, Robert L., " Downtown: Part 3.
The Pedestrian," Nation's Cities, December 1967 Morris, Robert L.,
" Transportation Planning for New Towns," Highway Research Board Record 293, 1969 Morris, Robert L.,
" Traffic Control," Nation's Cities, January 1969 Morris, Robert L.,
"New Towns and Old Cities: Part 1.
The Impact of New Towns," Nation's Cities, April 1969 Morris, Robert L.,
"New Towns and Old Cities: Part 2.
What Can the Cities Learn from New Town Experience?" Nation's Cities, May 1969 Morris, Robert L.,
"New Towns and Old Cities: Part 3.
Prospects for Coexistence," Nation's Cities, June 1969 Morris, Robert L.,
" Transportation Planning for a New Community,"
Public Works, October 1969 Morris, Robert L.,
" Social Considerations of Urban Transportation Systems," Transportation Engineering Journal, ASCE, Volume 96, Number TE 3, August 1970 Morris, Robert L.,
" Sidewalks Are the City," Nation's Cities, April 1971 Morris, Robert L.,
" Traffic Planning Considerations in Location of C.B.D. Parking Facilities," Traffic Engineering, June 1971 (As Chairman of ITE Committee 6U)
Morris, Robert L.,
" Changing Transportation Planning Concepts,"
Nation's Cities, April 1972 Morris, Robert L.,
"A Measure of Shopping Center Trip Distribution,"
Traffic En41neering, October 1974 Morris, Robert L.,
" Transportation Problems of Urban America,"
Hearings before the Subcommittee on Transportation of the Committee on Public Works, United States Senate, page 976, July 18, 1975
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Robert L. Morris Publications (Continued)
Morris, Robert L., "Do Freeways Help Downtown?" Nation's Cities, November 1975 McGee, H. W., W. A. Stimpson, J. Cohen, G. P. King, and R. L. Morris, "Right-Turn-on-Red, Volume I: Final Technical Report,"
Federal Highway Administration, May 1976 Morris, Robert L., " Traffic as a Function of Supply and Demand,"
Traffic Quarterly, October 1977 Morris, Robert L., "Are Levels of Service on the Level?" Technical Notes, Institute of Transportation Engineers, March 1978 Morris, Robert L., " Community Planning as a Tool in the Conservation of Transportation Energy," paper delivtred before the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Houston, Texas, 7 January 1979 O
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