ML20053A571
| ML20053A571 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Midland |
| Issue date: | 05/31/1982 |
| From: | WESTON GEOPHYSICAL CORP. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20053A568 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8205260248 | |
| Download: ML20053A571 (33) | |
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p-FROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE.
HORIZONTAL DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRUM 3-1 MIDLAND PLANT - UNITS 1 AND 2
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coamamou May 10, 1982 WGC 309-28 Dr. Thiru Thiruvengadam Consumers Power Company 1945 West Parnall Road Jackson, Michigan 49201
Dear Dr. Thiruvengadam:
Enclosed is our report entitled " Probability of Exceeding the Operating Basis Earthquake Horizontal Design Response Spectrum, Midland Plant - Units 1 and 2".
Please contact us if you have any questions or desire additional infvrmation.
Sincerely, WESTON GEOPHYSICAL CORPORATION Edward N.
Levine I
for Richard J.
Holt 1
i ENL:RJH:eag l
Enclosure l
l l
l Post Office Box 550. Westboro, Massachusetts 01581. (617) 366-9191
l PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE HORIZONTAL DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRUM MIDLAND PLANT - UNITS 1 AND 2 l
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prepared for l
1 CONSUMERS POWER COMPANY May 1982 l
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES i
LIST OF FIGURES ii
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1
- 2. 0 SEISMIC HAZARD RESULTS 1
3.0 OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE-HORIZONTAL DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRUM 2
4.0 PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE OBE RESPONSE SPECTRUM 3
5.0 ESTIMATES OF HISTORIC GROUND MOTION AT THE MIDLAND SITE 6
6.O REFERENCES 11 TABLES FIGURES I
P l
l i
I j
Weston Geophysical
i LIST OF TABLES I
I Table No.
Title 1
Peak Ground Motion and OBE Response Spectra Characteristics 2
Probabilities of Exceeding the OBE Horizontal Response Spectrum l
3 Earthquake Catalog for the Midland Site 4
Historic Ground Acceleration Estimate 5
Historic Ground Velocity Estimate t
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l 1
weston Geoonyscci l
-r LIST OF FIGURES Figure No.
Title 1
Comparison of Annual Exceedance Probabilities for Alternate Tectonic Models 2
Best Estimate Annual Exceedance Probability at the Midland Site 3
Horizontal Design Response Spectra Operating Basis Earthquake 4
Midland Plant - Units 1 and 2 Operating Basis Earthquake Horizontal Response Spectrum - 5% of Critical Damping 5
Comparison of Midland OBE and NUREG/CR-0098 Horizontal Response Spectra Representing MMI = V-VI 6
Comparison of Midland OBE and NUREG/CR-0098 Horizontal Response Spectra Representing MMI = V+
7 Comparison of Midland OBE Ground Motion Estimates and Historical PGA and PGV Maxima 8
Comparison of Probabilistic and Historical PGA Annual Frequency 9
Comparison of Probabilistic and Historical PGV Annual Frequency l
l l
ii Weston Geophysical e
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
Seismic hazard curves for the Midland site are given in the Part III report, " Seismic Hazard Analysis" (WGC, February 1981), in terms of annual probability of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI).
These reFults are used here to estimate the probability of exceeding the Midland Plant - Units 1 and 2 Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) horizontal design response spectrum.
- 2. 0 SEISMIC HAZ ARD RESULTS Three tectonic models were used in the Part III report to determine seismic hazard at the Midland site, located in the state of Michigan at approximately 43.65*N and 84.30*W.
These tectonic models include:
(1) Michigan Basin - Cincinnati Arch System; (2) Central Stable Region with seismo-tectonic structures at Anna, Ohio and at Attica, New York; ( 3) Central Stable Region with no seismo-tectonic structures.
Distant seismic sources such as the New Madrid, Missouri region located southwest of the Midland site and the western Quebec seismic zone to the northeast of the site were included in the seismic hazard analyses to incorporate far-field, long period motion effects.
Cumulative seismic hazard curves, an integral of hazard attributed to each seismic source in a tectonic model, are shown on Figure 1.
A best estimate seismic hazard curve, representing a weighted average of the hazard curves for the Weston Geophysical
. three tectonic models, is plotted on Figure 2.
The weights developed in the Part III report include.5 for Model 1,
.3 for Model 2, and.2 for Model 3.
All significant historical seismic sources are located at long distance from the site, i.e.,
greater than 200 miles.
One conclusion of the Part III report is that the predominant source of seismic hazard at the Midland site, for higher intensities, is the local occurrence of a moderate, random earthquake.
The characteristics of the probabilistic ground motion, therefore, can be modelled using correlations of MMI versus peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) determined on the basis of strong motion records observed
(
in the near epicentral regions of earthquakes.
The correlations of Trifunac and Brady (1975) for average soil
(
conditions and those of McGuire (1977) for firm soil conditions are used to estimate ground motion parameters from intensity, since these studies rely on data recorded at epicentral distances generally less than 50 km.
l 3.0 OPERATING B ASIS EARTHQUAKE - HORIZONTAL DESIGN RESPONSE SPECTRUM l
l The original Midland site horizontal design response j
spectra for the Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) are shown on Figure 3.
These Housner-type spectra, anchored at high frequency to 0.069, were modified by elevating the spectral ordinates between 0.2 and 0.6 seconds by 504 to accomodate l
i l
Weston Geophysical l
t
. differences between the original Housner spectra and more recent Newmark-type spectra.
The modified Housner response spectrum at 5% of critical damping is shown on Figure 4.
The characteristics of the OBE apectrum at 5% of critical damping include a 0.06g high frequency anchor point, a peak spectral acceleration of 0.10g at periods just lower than 0.2 seconds, a peak spectral acceleration of 0.15g in the 50%
l elevated range from 0.2 to 0.6 seconds, and a peak spectral velocity of 4 in/sec at.6 seconds.
Beyond the modified region, peak spectral velocity ranges from 2.7 in/sec at.6 seconds to 4 in/sec at a period of 3 seconds.
- 4. 0 PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE OBE RESPONSE SPECTRUM The methodology for estimation of annual probability of j
exceeding the Midland OBE includes:
(1) construction of standard NUREG/CR-0098 spectra (Newmark and Hall, 1978)
(henceforth called NUREG spectra) that approximate the OBE spectrum, ( 2) estimation of the MMI representative of the NUREG l
spectra, and (3) retrieval of annual exceedance probabilities from the Part III report hazard curves.
The maximum response spectral acceleration in the 5% of critical damping OBE spectrum is 0.15g and occurs in the period band from.2 to.3 seconds.
Using the NUREG one-sigma spectral amplification factor of 2.71 for 5% of critical damping, this maximum response spectral acceleration is associated with a PGA l
l Weston Geophysicci t
4-of 0.0559 The site intensity corresponding to this PGA is calculated using both Equation 1 (Trifunac and Brady, 1975) and Equation 2 (McGuire, 1977).
Log PGAH = 0.014 + 0.30 MMI (1)
Ln PCAH =
.831 + 0.851 MMI (2) where PGAH=
peak horizontal ground acceleration (cm/sec2)
MMI =
Modified Mercalli site intensity Site intensities correlated to 0.055g PGA are 5.73 and 5.66 using Equations 1 and 2, respectively.
Peak ground velocities ( PGV) associated with.055g PGA are determined using both Equation 3 (Trifunac and Brady,1975) and Equation 4 (McGuire, 1977) by substituting the above site intensities.
Log PGVH=
.63 +.25 MMI (3)
Ln PGVH = -4.02 +.952 MMI (4) l where PGVH=
Peak horizontal ground velocity (cm/sec) i MMI =
Modified Mercalli site intensity The resulting PGV values for Equations 3 and 4 are 6.35 cm/sec and 3.93 cm/sec, respectively.
Given these PGV values, peak response spectral velocities are determined to be 14.6 cm/sec (5.75 in/sec) and 9.0 cm/sec (3.54 in/sec) using the NUREG one-sigma, 5% damping amplification factor of 2.30.
Weston Gecchysicci
. A NUREG response spectrum for 5% of critical damping 4
representative of PGA of 0.055g and MMI of approximately V-VI is shown on Figure 5 compared to the OBE spectrum.
This spectrum is constructed such that the constant acceleration portion is tangent to the maximum spectral acceleration in the OBE spectrum; therefore', it substantially overlies the OBE at frequencies greater than 5 Hz.
Another NUREG spectrum is constructed to approximate the OBE level at these higher frequencies.
The spectral acceleration of the OBE at.2 seconds, before the 50% increase, is 0.109 Another NUREG spectrum is constructed tangent to this value using Equations 1 through 4 and the procedure detailed above.
The values derived in this analysis are shown on Table 1 which also lists the previous results for the modified portion of the OBE response spectrum.
Figure 6 illustrates the comparison of the OBE spectrum vs.
the NUREG spectrum for a PGA of.0379, a peak spectral acceleration of 0.109 and a site intensity of V+.
The probability of exceeding the OBE response spectrum is estimated from the seismic hazard curves developed in the Part III report and shown on Figures 1 and 2.
In the period range of 0.2 to 0.6 seconds, the OBE is approximated by a 0.055g NUREG spectrum representative of an MMI of 5.66 to 5.73.
The annual probability of exceeding these intensities, as observed
-3
-3 on Figure 1, is in the range of 1.4 X 10 to 4.0 X 10 1
Weston Geophysicci
.. 4 for the three alternate tectonic models.
The oest estimate annual probability, taken from Figure 2, for these intensities
-3 is 2.2 X 10 Similarly, the probability of exceeding un-modified portions of the OBE spectrum is estimated from the 0.0379 NUREG spectrum representing an MMI of 5.15 to 5.20.
Annual probability of exceeding this intensity spans from 4.3 X
-3
-3 10 to 8.3 X 10 with a best estimate of 5.6 X 10-3, These probabilities are summarized on Table 2.
The best estimate probability of exceeding the OBE during an assumed 40 year economic life-span of the Midland Plant is 0.084 for the 50% elevated region between the periods of 0.2 and 0.6 seconds, and 0.201 for the remaining un-altered parts of the OBE spectrum.
5.0 ESTIMATES OF HISTORIC GROUND MOTION AT THE MIDLAND SITE The probabilistic seismic hazard results described above are compared in this section to estimates of the historical seismic exposure of the Midland site.
This comparison is made to test the degree to which the probabilistic calculations, made on the basis of several assumptions on seismic zonation and ground motion attenuation models, predict the historic low amplitude ground motions determined from the earthquake catalog for the region, independent of any hypotheses made on source zonation.
Historic ground motion levels are determined using the Nuttli and Brill (1980, NOREG/CR-157 7) earthquake catalog for the central United States and the Weston Geophysical Catalog for the eastern United States and Canada.
Weston Gecchysicci
O
- s. Revised attenuation models for MMI, PGA and PGV, Equations 5,
6 and 7 respectively, of Nuttli and Herrmann (1981) are used to estimate the ground motion at the Midland site associated with the historical earthquakes.
MMI(r) = 0.40 + 2.0mb - 2. 70 Log r
.00llr (r > 25km) (5)
Log PGA = 0.55 +.50mb - 0.83 Log r
.0019r (r > 15km) (6)
Log PGV = -3.60 + 1.0mb - 0. 83 Log r
.00llr (r > 15km) (7)
Where MMI = Modified Mercalli Site Intensity PGA = Mean of peaks of 2 horizontal ground acceleration components (cm/sec2)
PGV = Mean of peaks of 2 horizontal ground velocity components (cm/sec)
All seismic events located within 1,000 km of the site that resulted in a site intensity > II MMI, according to equation 5, are listed in Table 3.
Peak ground motion levels determined from Equations 6 and 7 are also listed on the table.
The data in Table 3 are interpreted into histograms shown in Tables 4 and 5 for PGA and PGV, respectively.
In each histogram the ground motions are sorted according to four criteria; these include the amplitude of ground motion, the distribution of
(
amplitudes in time, the size of the events, and finally, the epicentral distance of events.
The conventions adopted to describe the earthquake sources are Nn for near events located within 50 km of the site, with the lower case letter representing an event with m
< 5. 0 ; Ii for events in the b
intermediate distance range of 50-200 km; Ff for events at long l
l l
Weston Geopnysical l
L
o distance between 200-1,000 km.
For the purpose of estimating annual frequencies of the low amplitude motions, events larger than 5 mb are assumed to be completely reported for 170 years and events smaller than 5 m for 105 years, b
j Ground acceleration exposure of the Midland site, as interpreted from Table 4, is characterized by several occurrences in 105 years of PGA in the range of.0032 to t
.0048g, all resulting from events smaller than 5.0 mb.. No events are located within 50 km of the site and no events larger than 5.0mb are located within 200 km of the site.
The largest PGA resulting from a distant earthquake is.0024g associated with the 6.2 m Timiskaming earthquake located b
536 km Northeast of the site.
j l
In contrast with the PGA exposure, maximum historical PGV's are all associated with distant earthquakes.
The maximum of 2.19 cm/sec is associated with the February 7, 1812, 7.4 mb l
l New Madrid earthquake.
Other PGV levels greater than.5 cm/sec l
are attributed to the remaining two large New Madrid events of 1811 and 1812 and the Timiskaming event of 1935.
The maximum I
PGA from an intermediate distance event is 0.10 cm/sec.
l The historical maxima of PGA and PGV are plotted on Figure 7 in comparison to the PGA and PGV associated with the OBE response spectrum developed in Section 4.
This comparison illustrates that the Midland OBE ground motion level has not been approached during the approximately 200 years of history j
for large events or 100 years for intermediate events.
l Weston Geophysicci
.. In a final comparison, estimates of the annual frequency of PGA and PGV, determined in the historical analysis, are compared to the best estimate probabilistic results given on Figure 2.
The seismic hazard curve on Figure 2 is converted to PGA using Equations 1 and 2; therefore the probabilistic results are shown as two 'PGA curves on Figure 8.
Plotted as unconnected symbols on the figure are historical estimates of cumulative annual exceedance frequency of low amplitude motions.
This comparison indicates that the probabilistic estimates of exceeding the OBE spectrum are conservative estimates as gauged against the historic PGA loading of the Midland site.
Broad assumptions normally made in the probabilistic assessments (WGC, Part III report, February, 1981) about source zonation and the ground motion attenuation model are responsible for these conservative results.
Similar treatment of the PGV data results in the com[arison shown on Figure 9 between the probabilistic and historical analyses.
The probabilistic results are again shown as two curves, one each for equations 3 and 4, which are used to convert the MMI hazard curve to PGV hazard curves.
The histeric PGV data are plotted using two methods, since the maxima are associated with the rare New Madrid events which have return intervals likely longer than 1,000 years (Johnson, 1981; Nuttli and Herrmann, 1978), but were observed in a 200 year catalog.
The first method is to plot the PGV recurrence Weston Geophysical
. data using the catalog length as the basis for completeness of the large events; the second and preferred method is to associate a return period of 1,000 years to the New Madrid events.
The results of these two methods for estimating the annual frequency of the historical PGV are shown as alternate types of symbols on Figure 9.
These comparisons of the historic seismic exposure of the Midland site and the probabilistic hazard curves illustrate that the probabilities of exceeding the OBE horizontal design response spectrum, given in Section 4 as.084 to.201 in the 40 year plant life, are conservative estimates resulting from broad assumptions incorporated into the formal seismic hazard calculations.
I l
Weston Geophysical l
o
6.0 REFERENCES
- Barstow, N.
L.,
Br 1,
K.
G.,
Nuttli, O.
W.
and Pomeroy, P. W.,
1980, "An Approach to Seismic Zonation for Siting Nuclear Electric Power Generating Facilities in the Eastern United States," NUREG/CR-1577, prepared for the U.
S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
- McGuire, R.
K.,
1977, "The Use of Intensity Data in Seismic Hazard Analysis," Proceedings 6th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, New Delhi, India, Vol.
2, pp. 353-358.
- Newmark, N. M. and Hall, W.
J., 1978, " Development of Criteria for Seismic Review of Selected Nuclear Power Plants,"
NUREG/CR-0098, prepared for the U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
- Trifunac, M.
D.
and Brady, A.
G.,
1975, "On the Correlation of Seismic Intensity Scales with the Peaks of Recorded Strong Ground Motion," Bulletin, Seismological Society of America, Vol. 65, No. 1, pp. 139-162.
Weston Geophysical Corporation, February 1981, " Site Specific Response Spectra Midland Plant - Units 1 and 2, Part III, Seismic Hazard Analysis," prepared for Consumers Power Company.
- Johnson, A.
C.,
1981, "On the Use of the Frequency-Magnitude Relation in Earthquake Risk Assessment," Proceedings of Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering:
The Eastern United States, Knoxville, Tennessee, September 14-16, 1981, pp. 161-181.
- Nuttli, O.
W.
and Herrmann, R.
B.,
1978, " State of the Art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States, Credible Earthquakes for the Central United States," U.
S.
Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station Miscellaneous Paper S-73-1, Report 12.
- Nuttli, O.
W.
and Herrmann, R.
B.,
1981, " Consequences of Earthquakes in the Mississippi Valley," American Society of Civil Engineers, Preprint 81-519.
Westen Gecchysicot
9 e
e TABLES Weston Geophys:cci
TABLE 1 Peak Ground Motion and OBE Response Spectra Characteristics Modified OBE Un-Modified Parameter Spectrum (.2.6 sec)
Portions Peak Spectral Acceleration (g)
.15
.1 Peak Ground Accelerationi (g)
.055
.037 Mod. Mercalli Site Intensity Eq. 1 5.73 5.15 Eg. 2 5.66 5.20 Peak Ground Velocity (cm/sec)
Eq. 3 6.35 4.54 Eg. 4 3.93 2.54 Peak Spectral Velocity (cm/sec)
OBE Spectrum 10.25 10.16 at.6 sec at 3 sec NUREG/CR-0098 Spectral Eq. 3 14.61 10.44 Eq. 4 9.04 5.84 1 erived using NUREG/CR-0098, one-sigma, 5% damping D
amplification factors.
l Weston Geophysical
TABLE 2 Probabilities c ~ Exceeding the OBE Horizontal Response Spectrum Range for Period Band 3 Tectonic Models Best Estimate zero-period to 0.2 sec 4.3 X 10 8.3 X 10-3 5.6 X 10-3 e
i Sb elev ted region 1.4 X 10 4.0 X 10-3 2.2 X 10-3 0.6 - 3.0 sec 4.3 X 10 8.3 X 10-3 5.6 X l'0-3 4
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TABLE 4 Historic Ground Acceleration Estimate at the Midland Site Peak Horizontal Acceleration (g)
.0005
.0015
.0025
.0035
.0045
.0055 Time Frame
.0014
.0024
.0034
.0044
.0054
.0064 1800-1824 3F 1825-1849 1F li 1850-1874 1875-1899 2F 1F,1f li 1900-1924 1F li 1925-1949 2f 2F,1f li 1950-1974 li li 1975-1981 i
Epicentral Tvpe Distance (k:m) l N,n
<50 I,i 50 - 200 F,f
>200 Lower Case = mb < 5.0 i
N,n max
- no events within 50 km Imax
- no events
> 5.0 mb within 200 km imax
- .00489 February 4, 18 9 3, mb " 4 7 ' Io = VI, 183 km Fmax
- .00249 November 1, 1935, mb = 6.2, Io = VII, 536 km fmax
- .00189 September 19, 18 8 4, mb = 4. 8, Io = VI, 328 km weston Geophysical
O TABLE 5 Historic Ground Velocity Estimate at the Midland Site Peak Horizontal Acceleration (cm/sec)
.01
.25
.50
.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 Time Frame
.24
.49
.74
.99 1.24 1.49 1.74 1.99 2.24 1800-1824 2F 1F 1825-1849 1F,li 1850-1874 1875-1899 3F,1f,li 1900-1924 1F,li 1925-1949 1F,3f,li 1F 1950-1974 2i 1975-1981 i
Epicentral Type Distance (k m)
N,n
<50 I,i 50 - 200 F,f
> 200 Lower Case = mb < 5.0
<kn 3
max
- no events within 50 km N,n
@I
- no events
> 5.0 mb within 200 km max i
- .10cm/sec February 4, 1883, mb = 4.7, Io = VI, A = 183km max i
- .10cm/sec August 10, 1947, mb " 4 7, Io = VI, A= 192km max g max
- 2.19cm/sec February 7, 1812, mb " 7 4, Io = XI-XII,A=912km F
-f
- .06cm/sec September 19, 1884, mb=4.8, Io = VI, A = 328km max
FIGURES Weston Geophysical
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FOR MICHIG AN BASIN g
AND 5.75 FOR ARCH STRUCTURE
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lod IV V
VI Vil Vill IX MODIFIED MERC ALLI INTENSITY C0F.PARISON OF AfHiUAL EXCEEDANCE PROBASILITIES FOR ALTERiiATE TECTONIC MODELS FIGURE 1 Weston Geophyscal
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t t
t lv v
vi Vil Vill IX MODIFIED MERCALLI trJTErlSITY EEST ESTIMATE AfiNUA'.
EXCEEDEtiCE PROBABILITY AT THE MIDLAt:0 SITE FISURE 2 weston Geophysical
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--': <z --- -\\ s,a. . r z, .: tu_r.c :a_.L <*- - 1 .:. L -_ rt > x.9 m Ce C2 C3 04 C4 ce 2 3 4 6 e 6 2 3 4 6 e C PERIOD (secs ) 1 l CC:XSU AERS POWER CC:APANY TAIDLN!D FLA.*li U:llTS 1 f. 2 i Fl:DL SAFETY A!!ALYSIS REPORT; Pari:ortal Oesip 7.essertse Spectra. 0;ets: Ut Lasis Ear: % ime T!!Jt Fig 2 r e 3. 7 1 i I F'3UE 3 Weston Geophysical i o 0 0 4 O yo 0,3 4 o . 3 10' O [ s f i G wk / sgoo i E/ 'N/ 'N/ \\ ' ,/ 10-' l [ l 100 10' 10-2 10-' PERIOD (SEC) MIDLAND PLANT-Uf;ITS 1 & 2 0?ERATI!;G BASIS EARTHCUAKE H0RIZ0llTAL RESPONSE SPECTRUM 5% 0F CRITICAL DR9If;G FIGUFI 4 l l e Weston Geophysical l s A s8 <c U e 9* A'? &9 O<4 9 's; 9 4 / s. ,gi 9 a 1 / Xb ~ [PGVa % = 2.5 in/sec ,/ g 4, P GV5 = 1.55 in see / w / / // =o .i o, +, d -Q g /x N9@f V s 9 /g 7 p 5/ ,i f ,/ T / i / 10%/ N/ 'N/ N y / d 10-2 l0-' 100 15' PERIOD (SEC) a Constructed using correlations CO: PARIS 0t! 0F M10LAt0 OEE of Trifunac and Brady (1975). ATJD f;UfdG/CR-0098 HOPJZ0tiTAL RESP 0t;SE SPECTPA b Correlations of McGuire (1977) PIPRESEtiTitJG MMI = V-VI for firm foundation materials. FIGURE 5 l Weston Geophysical i i /,4 l 'o q y&9 0, p. N 'N E/ / \\/ \\i e A, c b P GVa ' = 1.78 i n/ s ek ~ s \\! 'N,/ / 0 /) / \\ PGVb = 1.0 in/sec E o .,g / \\ d ~ 4 ~\\ ,si / +s / 9/ e' / ,s / / 10 \\ \\ 6-f / ,/ \\/ ,/ l ~ \\ i i 10-2 io.. 100 ro' l PERIOD (SEC) a Constructed using correlations COTPARIS0t10F MIDLAriD OBE of Trifunac and Brady (1975). Af!D f;UPEG/CR-0003 HORIZOf;TAL RESP 0t:SE SPECTF.A l b Coreclations of McGuire (1977) PIP PISEtJTIt:G MMI = y+ f or firm foundation materials. FIGUFI 6 l 1 Weston Geophysical l 9 sh f'. 4 'o?4> $$
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'6 e I 1 l 1 l l l !k \\ l f I ! i l i ll l l l ,I Il!lI \\ \\ l l l I i llll 5 C l l ll Y%l l l llll y5 = b 1 \\ ,?> 2 S l ') 's < n HIST' RICAL PhXN105 y E O I f f f l i l'l~l .\\ i. \\\\ l 8 l J t I } i l ill i 6 g it a et l l' l l l 1i l } \\ /I I Ill ) l l ) I I I i'l i l i\\iiiII l ll l l l \\\\ lll l 1 -3 10 1 e i. 6 j 6 .\\\\ s i e .. e e i a 3 i .\\\\i 1 i i , i i i ei i:, i :\\; \\ i i i i i i iii I l l l i i\\i\\ ( l I ' lll i l i l I t i l\\ \\ i i III ll i\\\\ l l \\\\ 4 l 10 l -3 -2 1 .0 13 13 FE AK H3R' ZO!!I AL AOCEuERAT'0: (G) l t i CO:; PARIS 0:1 0F PROBASILISTIC AtiD HISTORICAL PGA A::;'JAL FREQUE:;CY l FIGU2E 8 l Weston Geophysical l s 10 l i f i l iif f i l j i { a 4 l l l j i I ! il Iij i I II i i ; i I l l I lil l l lllll d l I i , "J EQ. 4 EQ. 3 ) i i X \\ v,. x. i... I i \\lf 1 i \\ I_ "O i,l l l t 1 i f 1A si Xo .I ti# I I I I N 11 l\\ Ts l 1 1Ii h l l G I l l l N,4 g 'II W 2 4 E 13 e. i __9,j 6 te V .I i X i t i .c i i a-, !k, i\\j i iI, 7 i i I I t I i 5 i e i i i i i \\1 iNi li! I I I I l ll3 1 A i\\liIil i I i N XI I i 3 10 i J e ,\\'\\t 4 i xn, i t j e iet i 6 ig\\i _ \\, I Ii i i Ai\\' II I l \\\\ l HISTORICAL MAXI:1U'1 I l l k 1 10 l 1 0 i 10 10
Annual Frequency determined g using Earthquake Catalog length C0:1 PARIS 0:1 0F PROBABILISTIC A!iD HISTORICAL PGV Annual Frequency determined AtitiUAL FREQUE? ICY c using 1000 yr. return period for fiew fladrid events. FIG'JP.E 9 Weston Geopnysical