ML20031E551
| ML20031E551 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Allens Creek File:Houston Lighting and Power Company icon.png |
| Issue date: | 10/14/1981 |
| From: | Urbanik T NRC, TEXAS A&M UNIV., COLLEGE STATION, TX |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20031E545 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8110160104 | |
| Download: ML20031E551 (9) | |
Text
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I OCT 141981 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEA". REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of
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f HOUSTON LIGHTING AND POWER COMPANY Docket No. 50-466 (Allens Creek Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 1)
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l TESTIMONY OF THOMAS URBANIK II ON EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE STUDY FOR.ALLENS CREEK
[ Emergency Planning - Schuessler Contention 1]
TESTIMONY OF THOMAS URBANIK II ON EVACUATION TIME ESTIPATE STUDY FOR ALLENS CREEK Q.1.
State your name and title.
A.
I am Thomas Urbanik II, an Assistant Research Engineer associated with the Texas Transportation Institute of the Texas A&M University System, College Station, Texas.
i Q.2.
Do you have a statement of your professional qualifications?
A.
Yes. A statement of ray professional qualifications is attached to this tes timony.
Q.3.
In what capacity are you testifying here?
A.
I am testifying on behalf of the NRC Staff for which I serve as a subcon-tractor, through the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories which is responsible for reviewing evacuation time estimates of nuclear facilities under contract to the Nuclear Regulatory Comission.
Q.4.
Briefly summarize your experience with evacuation time estimate studies for nuclear facilities.
A.
I was a principal author of NUREG/CR-1745, " Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," which was published in November 1980. That document described the limitations of several methodologies and some alternatives for determining evacuation time estimates. Additionally, I provided input to the development of the current guidance for evacuation time estimate studies which' appear in Appendix 4 to NUREG-0654, Revision 1.
Furthermore, I have reviewed the initial evacuation time estimate study submittals of approximately,.
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52 operating and near term nuclear faci.lities for the NRC against guidance of NUREG-0654, Revision 0, the'results of which are published in NUREG/
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CR-1856.
I am currently reviewing revisions to evacuation time estimate studies and new submittals against NUREG-0654, Revision 1.
Q.5.
What is the purpose of this testinony?
A.
The purpose of this testimony is to address the manner in which the Ev'acuation Tine Estimates for the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ at Allens
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Creek prepared by HMM Associates for Houston Power and Light compares to the guidance of NUREG-0654, Appendik 4, based on a review which I completed on October 1,1981.
Q.6.
What was the scope of your review-of the Evacuation Tine. Estimate Study for Allens Creek?
A.
I conducted this review at the request of the NRC Staff.
The results of the study as well as the methodology used to develop the. evacuation time estimates were evaluated and compared with the guidance of Appendix 4 to NUREG-0654, Revision 1.
My review did not involve a comparison of the study with any emergency preparedness plans or procedures of the licensee or State or local response organizations.
Q.7.
What were the criteria that you used during your review of the evacuation study submitted by Houston Power and Light?
A.
I compared the Allens Creek evacuation time estimate study with the guidance of NUREG-0654, Revision 1, Appendix 4.
Appendix 4 discusses several elements which the NRC and FEMA believe should be included in t
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evacuation time studies. The considerations include:
(a) an accounting for permanent, transient, and s'pecial facility populations in the plume exposure EPZ; (b) an indication of the traffic analys$s method and the method of arriving at road capacities; (c) a consideration of a range of evacuation scenarios generally representative of normal through adverse evacuation conditions; (d) consideration of confirmation of evacuation; (e) identification of critical links and need for traffic control; and (f) use of methodology and traffic flow modeling techniques for various time estimates consistent with the guidance of NUREG-0654, Revision 1 Appendix 4.
Q.8.
Briefly describe the methodology of the study.
A.
The methodology used for analyzing evacuation times is a mathematical simulation model which predicts the flow of vehicular traffic on the roadway system around Allens Creek. The model, called NETSIM, was
, developed and validated by the U.S. Department of Transpcrtation, Federal Highway Administration to evaluate traffic networks (i.e., roads and highways).
The methodology is an acceptable approach identified in NUREG-0654, Rev.1, Appendix 4.
Detailed population estimates were made for permanent residents, transients, and special facility residents as specified in NUREG-0654, Rev.1. The permanent population estimates were based on estimates of 1990 and 2020 population made by HP&L.
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_4 In addition, estimates of peak popul' tions for 1990 and 2020 included a
refueling workers, recreational' visitors, students and faculties' at schools, seasonal residents and persons at medical facilities.
Populations were converted to the number of evacuating vehicles in several ways.
Permanent residents were apportioned to vehicles based on an-assumed auto occupancy factor of 2.5 persons per vehicle. Transient pop'ulations were converted to evacuating vehicles based on tipe of
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facility.
In sore cases, the type of vehicle used was a bus and an appropriate adjustment made for its effect on traffic flow. The overall approach used to determine evacuati.ng vehicles is reasonable and makes,
maximum use of available data.
The capacity analysis is based on the Highway Capacity Manual. This is the standard reference used in the transportation profession to compute roadway capacities.
The evacuation time estimates are based on four cases. The cases are 1990 peak population with good weather,1990 peak population with adverse weather, 2020 permanent population with good weather, and 2020 pernanent population with adverse weather. The cases reflect a range of conditions generally reflective of the type of conditions that might be expected to exist in an actual evacuation. The analysis indicated that there were ra significant bottlenecks.
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Q.9.
Based on your review of the evacuation time estinate study, have you identified any weaknesses or areas in the study which were not ' addressed?
w A.
Yes. The number of individuals dependent on public transportation was not identified.
However, it has been indicated that local emergency plans will incorporate provisions for any special transportation assis-tance needs.
Q.10. What is your opinion as to the overall compliance of the study to the criteria of NUREG-0654?
A.
The report on evacuation times is respo'nsive to and is in compliance with NUREG-0654, and the estimates provided delineate a reasonable range of,
times required to evacuate the Allens Creek plume EPZ..
Q.11. How, in your opinion, will emergenqy response personnel be able to utilize these evacuation tine estimates?
A.
, These time estimates should provide to emergency response decisionnakers additional information and a basis on which a decision as to the feasi-bility of an evacuation could be made.
Q.12. Did you attempt to verify the accuracy of the estimates?
A.
Yes.
I. made a few hand calculations of volumes to capacity ratios to determine if any parts of the network appeared to require times longer than those indicated in the licensee study.
My calculations did not indicate any problens or serious bottlenecks.
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o THOMAS URBANIX APRfL 1980 BIOGRAPHICAL DATA J
Education:
Ph.D. in Civil ' Engineering (Transportation), Texas A&M 1
. University, in progress.
M.S. in Civil Engineering (Transportation), Purdue University, June 1971.
1 B.S. in Civil Engineering, Syracuse University, June 1969.
B.S. (Forest Engineering), State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, June 1968.
Professional Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University, January Positions:
1977 to Present. Assistant Research Engineer.
City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1972-1976.
Traffic Engineer.
City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1971-1972.
Transporta-tion Planning Engineer.
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Joint Highway Research Project, Purdue University, 1970-1971.
Research Assistant.
Experience':
Principal Investigator on several studies concerning public transportation planning at the state and local levels. Areas includs general transit, elderly and handicapped transporta-tion, and priority treatment of freeways and arterial streets.
Other transportation planning studies include hurricane evac-uation, nuclear evacuation and truck routing for hazardous mate-ri als.
Recent -traffic engineering work includes delineation of portable barriers in construction zones.
Responsible to Director of Streets, Traffic and Parking, Ann Arbor, Michigan.. Responsible supervisory and professional traffic engineering work in directing the traffic engineering function of the department. Work involved responsibility for the application of professional engineering skill and knowl-edge to difficult traffic engineering problems in traffic regu-lation and control, street use, street lighting, geometrics, parking, school safety, curb cuts, and related traffic engineer-ing activities. Was directly responsible for the supervhion.
of the traffic signal and traffic sign maintenance personnel.
eResponsible to Director of Traffic Engineering and Transporta-3 tion,AnnArbor, Michigan.
Reviewed transpor;tation aspects of all plan.s for development in the city. ' Staff member to the Ann Arbor Transportation Authority responsible for budget and union negotiations.
Staff Coordinator for the planning, desian,
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implementation, and operation of the Dial-A-Ride demand-responsive demonstration project.
Under general direction of Dr. Kenneth W. Heathington, Purdue University, designed attitudinal questionnaire concerning public transportation for a home interview survey in Lafayette, Indiana.
Also analyzed survey results for inclusion in a report which was the basis for improving public transportation in Lafayette.
Institute of Transportation Engineers
. Transportation Research Board Sigma Xi Chi Epsilon Registered Professional Engineer, Texas and Michigan Urbanik, T. and Jose' A. Soegaard, Cost-Effectiveness of Accessible Fixed-Route Buses in Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, Technical Report 1061-lF, September 1979.
4 Urbanik, T. and Jose' A. Soegaard, Transportation of the Elderly and Handicapped in Texas:
A Case Study, Texa? Trans-portation Institute, Technical Report 1056-2F, September 1979.
Urbanik, T., Bryan-College Station Transit Improvement Plan, Texas Transportation Institute, September 1979.
Urbanik, T., Total Accessibility Versus Equivalent Mobility
'of the Handicapped, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Compendium of Technical Papers, 49th Annual Meeting,1979.
Urbanik, T. et al., Survey of Vehicles and Equipment for Elderly and Handicapped Transportation, Texas Transportation Institute, Technical Report 1056-1,' September 1978.
Urbanik, T. and R.W. Holder Corpus Christi Elderly and Handicapped Transportation Study, Texas Transportation Institute, September 1978.
Urbanik, T., Texas Hurricane Evacuation Study, Texas Transporta-tion Institute, September 1978.
Urbanik, T., Priority Treatment of Buses at Traffic Signals, Transportation Engineering, November 1977.
Urbanik, T. and R.W. Holder, Priority Treatment of High *0ccu-pancy Vehicles on Arterial Streets, Texas Transportation Institute, Report 205-S, July 1977.
Urbanik, f. and R.W. Holder, Evaluation of Alternative Joncepts for Priority Use of Urban Freeways in Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, March 1977.
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- Urbanik, T., et al., Ann Arbor Dial-A-Ride Project Final Report, Ann Arbor Transportation Authority, April 1973.
Urbanik, T., Ann Arbor Dial-A-Ride Operations, Highway Research Board Special Report 136, 1973.
Urbanik, T. and K.W. Heathington, Driver Information Systems for Highway-Railway Grade Crossings, Highway Resear:h Record Number 414, 1972.
- Urbanik, T., et al., The Greater Lafayett Area Bus Transit Study, Joint IITgEiay Research Project, Purdue University, April 1971.
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