ML20031C597
| ML20031C597 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Susquehanna  |
| Issue date: | 10/01/1981 |
| From: | Mcnair G ALLEGHENY ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC., PENNSYLVANIA POWER & LIGHT CO. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20031C591 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8110070343 | |
| Download: ML20031C597 (6) | |
Text
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of
)
)
PENNSYLVANIA POSER & LIGHT COMPANY
)
)
Docket Nos. 50-387 and
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50-388
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ALLEGEENY ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC. )
(Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, Units 1 and 2) j SUPPLEMENTAL AFFIEAVIT OF GRAYSON E. McNAIR IN SUPPORT OF APPLICANTS' AN5WER TO NRC STA?F'S MOTION FOR
SUMMARY
DISPCdITION OF CONTENTION 4 County of Lehigh
)
- SS Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
)
s Grayson E. McNair, being duly sworn according to aw, deposes and says as follows:
1.
This affidavit supplements my affidavit dated September 22, 1981 in support of Applicants' Answer to NRC Staff's Motion for Summary Disposition of Contention 4.
On September 28, 1981 Pennsylvania Power & Light Company (PP&L) approved a new fore-cast of the grcith of energy sales and peak load.
While the methodology used in preparing this new forecast has not ch.'nged, the projected growth in peak load and energy sales is somewhat lower throughout the forecast period (i.e.,
to the year 2000) than that shown in my September 22 Affidavit.
2.
The compound growth rate in energy sales is 2.2% in the 8110070343 811002 PDR ADOCh 05000387 G
new forecast as compared to 2.5% in the former forecast.
The compound growth rate in peak load la 2.0% in the new forecast as compared to 2.2% in the former forecast.
The current projected growth in energy sales and peak load is set forth in Exbibit "A" hereto.
3.
The primary parameters which are responsible for these changes are a slower growth in the economy, a lower number of new dwelling units and in the near term, loirer average annual use of electricity in electrically heated dwelling units.
4.
For the purposs of considering the effects of growth in peak load and energy sales on the net benefits of operating Susquehanna in light of the new PPE forecast, Mr. Hecht has assumed zero growth in sales and peak load for both PPE and the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM).
See Supplemental Affidavit of William F. Hecht in Support of Applicants' Answer to NRC Staff's Motion for Summary Disposition of Contention 4 dated October 1, 1981.
5.
In my opinion, it is virtually impossible for PP E or PJM to experience zero growth in energy sales and peak load over the next ten years.
Therefore, Mr. Hecht's analysis based on zero growth rates has an extremely high probability of under-estimating the growth in energy sales and peak loads of PPE and PJM over the next ten years.
^
- J %
1,,
,p' L
dil&?f ( /?XC An Grayson E. McNair Sworn to and subscribed before me this 1st day of
' October,i1}81.
6-1
(
Notary Public JOHN P. MILLER, JR., Noth Public Allentown, Lehigh Count,
a.
My Commission bpires May 25,1985
Table of PP&L's Forecasts Prepared in 1980 and 1981 Energ Sales Peak Load' (gWh)
(MW)
Prepared in Prepared in Prepared in Prepared in 1980 1981 1980 1981 1980 22,493 22,437 (Actual)* 4,842 4,945 (Actual)*
1981 23,073 23,049 5,007 4,934 1982 24,103 23,771 5,173 5,087 1983 24,916 24,400 5,360 5,221 1984 25,743 24,961 5,556 5,406 1985 26,634 25,885 5,710 5,552 1986 27,415 26,560 5,940 5.s655 1987 28,472 27,147 6,100 5,776 1988 29,320 27,758 6,200 5,900 1989 30,500 28,398 6,290 6,000 1990 31,100 29,014 6,420 6,130 1991 31,800 29,633 6,540 6,290 1992 32,500 30,3t0 6,660 6,430 1993 33,100 31,111 6,780 6,580 1994 33,800 31,8t.1 6,900 6,730 1995 34,400 32,537 7,020 6,860 1996 35,000 33,260 7,130 7,010 1997 35,500 33,972 7,230 7,060 1998 36,000 34,307 7,330 7,130 l
1999 36,500 34,648 7,430 7,210 2000 37,000 35,002 7,530 7,280 i
- For comparison, the weather adjusted peak load for 1980 is 4914 MW (compared to the actual peak load of 4945 MW).
A similar comparison for 1980 sales is 22317 gWh (ccmpared to 22,437 gWh actual).
EXHIBIT "A"
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of
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PENNSYLVANIA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY
)
)
and
)
Docket Nos. 50-387
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50-388 ALLEGHENY ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC. )
)
(Susquehanna Steam Ele;tric Station, )
Units 1 and 2)
)
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE This is to certify that copies of the foregoing " Applicants' Supplemental Answer To NRC Staff Motion For Summary Dist. 'ition Of Contention 4",
"Supplerrental Affidavit of Grayson E. Mch -
In Support Of Applicants' Answer To NRC Staff's Motion For Summary Disposition of Contention 4",
and " Supplemental Affidavit Of William F. Hecht In Support Of Applicants' Answer To NRC Motion For Summary Disposition Of Contention 4" were served by deposit in f
the U.
S. Mail, First Class, postage prepaid, this 2nd Day of October 1981, to all those on the attached Service List.
h-Nj Matias F.
Travieso-Diaz l
l Dated:
October 2, 1981 t
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SA?ETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of
)
)
PENNSYLVANIA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY
)
)
AND
)
Docket Nos. 50-387
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50-388 ALLEGHENY ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE, INC.
)
)
(Susquehanna Steam Electric Station,
)
Units 1 and 2)
)
SERVICE LIST Secretary of the Commission Dr. Judith H. Johnsrud U.
S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Co-Director Washington, D. C.
20555 Environmental Coalition on Nuc]. ear Power Administrative Judge James P.
Gleason 433 Orlando Avenue 513 Gilmoure Driv 2 State College, Pennsylvania 16801 Silver Spring, Maryland 20901 Susquehanna Environmental Advocates Mr. Glenn O.
Bright c/o Gerald Schultz, Esquire Atomic Safety and Licensing Post Office Box 1560 Board Panel-Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 18703 U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.
C.
20555 Mr. Thomas J.
Halligan, Correspondent The Citizens Against Nuclear Dangers Dr. Paul W.
Purdom Post Office Box 5 245 Gulph Hills Road Scranton, Pennsylvania 18501 Radnor, Pennsylvania 19087 Ms. Colleen Marsh Atomic Sn"ety and Licensing Box 558 A, R.
D.
- 4 Board Fanel Mt. Top, Pennsylvania 18707 U.
S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C.
20555 Jessica H.
Laverty, Esquire Office of the Executive Legal Docketing and. Service Section Director Office of the Secretary U.
S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission U.S.
Nuclaar Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C.
20555 Washington, D.C. ~20555
~
F Robert W.eAdler,. Esquire Mr. Thomas M.
Gerusky, Director Department of Environmental Resources Bureau of Radiation Protection Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 505 Executive House Resources Post Office Box 2357 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17120 Post Office Box 2063 Janes M. Cutchin, IV, Esquire Office of the Executive Legal Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Director Board Panel U.
S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission U.
S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C.
20555 Washington, D.
C.
20555 DeWitt C.
Smith Director Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency Transportation and Safety Building Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17120 i
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