ML19354C462
| ML19354C462 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Farley  |
| Issue date: | 03/18/1981 |
| From: | HMM ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19350C619 | List: |
| References | |
| 81-247F, NUDOCS 8104060439 | |
| Download: ML19354C462 (70) | |
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FARLEY NUCLEAR SITE EPZ , EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE STUDY 4 HMM Document No. 81-247F tiaren 18, 1981 Prepared for: ALABAMA POWER COMPANY P.O. Box 2641 Birminglam, AL 35291 Prepared Oy: HMM ASSOCIATES 255 Bear Hill Road-Waltnam, Massacnusetts 02154 emnanBC
, ~s TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. Introduction 1 A. Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone 1 B. General Assumptions 1 C. Metnodology 5 II. Demand Estimation 11 A. Permanent Residents 11
- 8. Transiont Population 13 C. Special Facility Population 15 D. Vehicle Demand 17 E. Emergency Planning Zone and Subareas 24 III. . Traffic Capacity 37 A. .EPZ Road Network 37
- 8. Evacuation Roadway Network 39 ,
C. Roadway Segment Characteristics 40 IV. ' Analysis of' Evacuation Times 44 A. Reporting Format 44 B. Me th odology - 46
- 1. Preparation 46
- 2. Evacuation 50 V. -Odler Requirements 63 111 _ .
O
LIST OF FIGURES L Figure Pace 1 Site Vicinity Map 2 . 2 EPZ anc Sectors Designated for Protective Action 3 3 Workplaces, Recreation Areas and Special Facilities 12 4 Entry Nodes for Evacuating Population 1roups 18 5 22-1/2 Degree Sectors for Meteoro1 - 1 Analysis 26 6 2-Mile Area Case 28 7 5-Mile Soutnwest Area Case 29 8 5-Mile Northwest Area Case 30 9 5-Mile East Area Case 31 10 10-Mile Southwest Area Case 33 11 10-Mile North west Area Case 34 12 10-Mile Northeast Area Case 35 13 10-Mile Soutneast Area Case 36 14 Probable Evacuation Routes 41 15 Link Data Sneet 42 16 Node Data Sheet 43 17 Probability Distributions: Number of Vehicles Evacuating from tne 10 Mile EPZ 54 18 Probability. Distributions: Number of
~
Vehicles Evacuating from tne 2-Mile Area 55 19 Probability Distributions: Number of Vehicles Evacuating . from tn e 5-Mile Southwest Area 56 20 Probability Distributions: Number of Vehicles Evacuating from the 5-Mile
. Northwest Area 57 21 Probability Distributions: Number of.
Venicles Evacuating - from the 5-Mile East Area 58 iv -
LIST OF FIGURES (Continued) Figure Page 22 Probability Distributions: Number of , Vehicles Evacuating from the 10-Mile Soutnwest Area 59 - 23 _ Probability Distributions: Number of Vehicles Evacuating from tne 10-Mile Northwest Area 60 24 Probability Distrioutions: Number of J Vehicles Evacuating from the 10-Mile Nortneast Area 61
. -25 Probability D~stributions: Number of Venicles Evacuating from the 10-Mile Southeast Area 62 O
5 V _ . e n 4 y y ., y y 9 y , e ,, - . c. - , -- .,v- ,
i LIST OF TABLES Table Page . -I worker Population 14 2 Special Facility Population 16 - t 3 Permanent Resident Venicle Loading ~20 4 4' Recreation Area Venicle Loading 22 5- Work er Venicle Loacing 23 6 Special r a cility venicle Loading 25
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.7L Maximum Evacuation Times for EPZ Areas 52 ,
4 8. Confirmation Times 64 t 9 1 e t- {'~ ~ R O f 4 vi - y 9 e
I. INTRODUCTIJN .- In tne event of an accident at the Farley Nuclear site, it may De necessary to take protective action. Protective actions could include sneltering, evacuation, or otner steps. Di e
. purpose of tnis report is to cescrioe a stucy concucted Dy HMM Associates on cenalf of Alabama Power Company to estimate times for evacuation of plant workers and tn e public. Tnis report will De provided to state and local of ficials for their use in the event of an emergency. Tne principal area of concern nas tne 10-mile racius Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) establisn ec pursuant to federal regulations. Evacuation time estimates were also oeveloped for designated suo-areas or sectors of c1e 10-mile EPZ. Evacuation time estimates were ceveloped for assorted weather conditions, dif ferent times of tne day and times o f th e week , and different population groups.
l.A Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone Tne Farley Nuclear Site is located in tne State of Alacama on tne western bank o f U1 e Om at tan co cn ee Riv er; . Di e EPZ for
~
tne Farley Nuclear Site includes areas witnir tne soutneastern portion of the State of Alabama and tne soutawestern portion of the State of Georgia. Tne site vicinity map for tne Farley
~ Nuclear Site is included in Figure 1.
Tne state and local governments of the states of Alacama and- Georgia nave .both participated in preparing plans for emergencies at tne Farley Nuclear Site. Sotn states nave designated EPZs and, furtnermore, nave divided tneir designated EPZs into sectors pursuant to feceral guidance. Figure 2 snows ule.EPZ_and sectors designated for~ protective ~ action by the two states. I.B -General Assumptions Severall assumptions were made in tne course of une analysis. D1ase assumptions were important in tn'c process of
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FIGURE 2 - EPZ AND SECTORS DESIGNATED F0h PROTECTIVE ACTION l l l 1 l t t
- 8) Tna model can readily address changes in population -
whian would be Aixely to occur witnin the EPZ at dif f erent times of the week and at different times of year. NETVAC is a flexible, fixed-step, macro traffic simulation model wnien uses traf fic flow relationships to calculate and record traffic densities, speeds, flows, queues, spill-backs, and other relevant information througnout tne evacuation process. Traffic is first entered at designated points (entry nodes). At every simulation interval, tne model assigns traffic from links (road segments) entering an intersection to the links emanating from it (outbound links) and advances traf fic along all the networx links. Die model employs a sophisticated list processing method to represent the evacuation networx as a series of links and nodes (intersections). NETVAC includes a dynamic route selection feature wnereby drivers' choice of outbound links, at every intersection, is based on two criteria:
- 1) Tne directionality of the outbound linx (i.e., Ole degree to which it leads away from the plant).
'2) - Die traf fic conditions on the outbound links (i.e. , -
speeds and queueing). Tne traffic flow leaving a link at-any intersection is subject to various approach capacity constraints, and all tne traffic assigned onto an outbound linx is constrained by Cle-capacity of Ulat link . The roadway .and intersecton approach capacities calculated by NETVAC are based upon the Highway Capacity Manual (Hignway ' Researen Board, Special- Report 87,-1965). Due to tne dynamic ,
. route assignment.mecnanism, approach capacities are updated at eacn simulation interval to -account _for tne Lenanging turning movements.- 'The intersection control options which can be-specified for NETVAC include fully signalized approacnes,
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uncontrolled app roacn e s , and secondary priority approacies ~ (accounting for stop signs anc yield signs in instances wnere " tney can ce assumed to De obeyec). Tne input to tne model includes ling information, node information, and traffic leading informatior.. Link information incluces:
- 1) Lane widtn,
- 2) Distance to obstructions,
- 3) Numoer of lanes,
- 4) Roadway type,
- 5) Directionality, anu
- 6) Free-flow travel speed.
Noce information includes:
- 1) -Intersection approacn wictn ,
- 2) . Intersection priorities anc controls coordinates,
- 3) Intersection location witnin the metropolitan area, and
- 4) Traf fic control.
Traffic ' loading information includes a stepwise time variable loading rate imies may be specified at any noce. Prior to any execution,- tne NETVAC model computes all U1e traffic flow ecuations needed for each link and, on recuest, performs an elaborate series of enecks to insure C1e integrity Lof-tne input data. u- -_. ;
The model output incluces several types o f information. Tnese include pre-execution reports anc simula- tion repcrts. Pre-execution reports incluce items sucn as:
- 1) Ecn o listings ,
- 2) Ne two rk listings,
- 3) Heading laDels,
- 4) List of signalized intersections,
- 5) List of entry nodes and entry rates, ano
- 6) Net wo rk diagnostics.
Simulation reports may include items seen as:
- 1) Total vehicles on use network ,
o
- 2) Summary of departures Ulrougn exit nodes on die EPZ perimeter,
- 3) Spill-backs at' entry noces,
- 4) Simulation completion report,-
.5)~ _ User-specified reporting interval, and
- 6) Link conditions for eacn network - nien list flow, cueues, entry rates, departure rate, cumulative departures, and speed.
The NETVAC program includes several options.- Die. main optionsJinclude:.
- 1) firearment'of signalized-intersections.as unsignalized to1model'a traffic control noncompliance situation; 0- ,
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- 2) Tne start and termination of an evacuation run at -e any traffic flow level over tne network, th us 1
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enabling the start of evacuation during a perloc
- such as a rusn nour;
- 3) Tne simulation of adverse-weather conditions; and.
- 4) Specification of simulation and reporting intervals. t 1
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II. CEMAND ES TIMATION t-Ine demano estimation pnase is mace up of too steps. Th e first step is tne cetermination of use nuccer anc cistricution of c1e population to ce evacuatec. Tne seconc step is c1e cetermination of tne appropriate nuccer of venicles recuirec. to evacuate eacn of c1e population groups. Feceral guidance indicates tnat tiree potential population segments snould De consicerea in a stucy of tnis type. Tnese incluce permanent resioents, transients, anc persons in special facilities. Figure 3 snows wor < places, recreation areas ano special facilities. II.A Permanent Resicents Permanent resicents were cefinec as tnose persons naving
- resicences witnin the EPZ for tne Farley Nuclear Site. Di e nu=cer of resicents nas been ceterminec in stucies by Alacama Power Company as well as ble recent 1980 Feceral Census of Population. Census information has also oeen provicec cy.
of ficials of Houston County, Alabama and Early County, Georgia wno, as a part of _ tne administration of government in tnose counties, nave from time-to-time countec or estimated population. For example, tne Houston County government recently inventoried tne nuscer of nousenolcs in unincorporatec areas for-purposes of estimating U1e recuirements for County government witn respect. to refuse collection. Early County, Georgia nas also ceveloped estimates of tne resident. population witnin tne EPZ (see page 49 of tne State of Georgia Radiological Emergency Operations Plan, *nien is Annex II to tne Farley Emergency Plan). On tne basis of use above sources of information regarding resicent population, HMM Associates
.developec. estimates for resident population for Die-EPZ. Th ese estimates incluceo numoer and distribution of population for
-cie' year 1980.
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S Special Facilities W uajor werkpieces R aecreationa: Faci ities M uotei FIGURE 3 - WORKPLACES, RECRE ATION ARE AS AND SPECI AL FACILITIES v II.B Transient Population ,, Transient population is pl marily made up of recreational population (tourists) and persons in work places. Data on recreational population was acquired from Civil Defense ' officials and law enforcement of ficials of Houston County, Alabama and Early County, Georgia. D1eir estimates o f recreational population were based primarily on estimates of the number of parxing spaces located in eacn of tne recreation areas witnin tne CPZ. Die transient population also includes occupational
. groups. Tne Civil Defense officials in Houston County and Early County provided estimates of work forces. HMM Associates also inventoried eacn of tne principal worx places in those two counties. Blis survey included an inventory of total work force, daytime worx force, nignttime work force (or back sh i f t work force) and weekend work force. Taole 1 inorcates the worker population of tne major. work places within tne EPZ. It snould be noted diat ble largest concentrations of occupational population are located at the Farley Plant and at the Great Southern industrial complex located approximately four miles soutneast of Farley Nuclear Station in Early County, Georgia.
Witninitne Great Soutnern industrial complex are located Great
'Soutnern Paper Company, Great Southern Plywood Company, Star Paper Tuoing Company, Cities Service Alum Company, and the -
Ch attancocn ee Industrial Railroad. No major work places are locateo in Henry County, Alabama witnin ble 10 mile EPZ. It sr:ould also =De noted tnat in allocating worker population .at . the Farley unit, whicn has a normal work force of 600 permanent employees (500 of wnom would evacuate in an emergency), it was assumed b1at 600 additional temporary Lemployees would be on. site.and would be required to evacuate. Dierrfore, it was assumed that during tne workday,1,100 k employees would be evacuated fr7m tne Farley Nuclear Site.
.Because this is more Ulan die. average workday worx- force, this 11s a conservative' assumption.
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TABLE 1 WL7KER POPULATION Population Workplace Day Nign t week end Georgia Great Southern Paper 550 130 130 Great Southern Plywood 100 75 75 Star Paper Tube 11 0 0 Chattancocnee Industrial Railroad 30 10 10 Cities Service Alum 3 3 3(1) Georgia Tubing 40 20 20(1) Alabama Farley Nuclear Station 1200 .100 100 Wex-Tex 350 1 1 Industrial Innovators 30 1 1 Southern Distillers 20 10 10 Freeman, Company 70 5 0 Columula Blouse 115 1 20(1) Columbia State Dock & Grain Elevator 5 0 0
.Ag Industries 9 9 9 (1) For L some workplaces, weekend senedules .are irregular. Di e numbers snown are the maximum work forces at tnose times wnen tn e work places are operating on weekends. Riis usually occurs on Saturday.
Agriculture is one of the principal businesses anicn is ,, concucted witnin U1e EPZ. Over 50% of Ole lanc is usec for agriculture. In tnis study, tne agricultural population was not specifically celineated. In is wa s tn e case fo r tn e following reasons.
- 1) Many of U1e individuals involved in agricultural wo rk are residents of tne area. Blus, usey are alreacy incluced in tne permanent resident population group.
- 2) Agriculture is carriec out in a geograp11cally dispersed manner. Unlik e industrial activity nnere workers are in concentrated locations, in agriculture persons are worxing in widespread areas. D1us tnere are no specific locations wnere large concentrations of agricultural workers would be employec.
"me Alaga Motel nas 8 rooms. It was assumed usat eacn room 'would be occupied during weexcays, evenings, anc w e ex end s . D1us,- tnis group was treated as part of U1e permanent population.
II.C Special Facility Poculation The special facility population within the Farley Nuclear Site EPZ is made up entirely of scnools. All tnese facilities are locatedLin Houston County, Alabama. -Th ey include public senools and one . private scnocl. Table 2 includes a description of eacn facility, its location, the student population, -and tne faculty population.
TABLE 2 SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION Population Facility Location Students Faculty Asn ford Academy Ash fo rd 300 15 Ash ford Hign Scnool Ash ford 1500 75 Webb Jr. Hign Webb 450 23 t f Harmon Jr._High Harmon 240 12 Houston. County ' High Sencol Columbia 580 29 av L 1
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II.0 Venicle Demand Die various population groups were assumed to evacuate primarily by automooile and bus. Permaner:t residents, transient population and special facility L pulation each nave their nwn transportation resources and requirements. Th u s , during tne study, HMM Associates examined the transportation resoul:ces available to these population groups and used these considerations in determining the venicle loadings for the evacuation simulation. Entry nodes for tne evacuating population groups are snown on Figure 4. Diese entry ncdes are tne points at whicn tne evacuation of Me population was simulated to begin. Permanent residents would evacuate primarily via their own automobiles. This would be the case wnetner they were evacuating from bleir nomes or from work places (in tne event th eir work places are located inside tne EPZ). A sul'ay was made to determine the number of registered motor venicles in Houston County, Alabama and Early County, Georgia. Blis survey indicated that there -were approximately 0.87 motor venicles per person registered in Houston County, Alabama and approximately
- 0.73 motor venicles per person in Early County, Georgia. It is assumed tnat a similar number of vehicles per capita are registered in Henry County, Alabama. Die per capita vehicle numbers -for the three counties in the EPZ is well above the national.per capita average of approximately 0.5. It would appear that, on an average basis, t1ere are two or more vehicles per nousehold th rough out tn e EPZ. Riis would indicate th a t , in the case of most nouseholds, even if one vehicle is driven to work by a family member, there would probably be anotner venicle remaining at home during the work day. Ulis car would be available to any family members remaining at nome wnen an evacuation is declared. D1us, it was concluded that -
01ere would be- a large number of vehicles available for an evacuation. Fur th e rmo re ,
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rIGURE 4 - ENTRY NODES FOR EVACUATING POPULATION GROUPS it was assumeo for tnis study tnat permanent population woulo .. evac iate witn an average of 2.0 persons per car. Tn is is a cor.servative assumption. For tne permanent population Table 3 snows tne entry nodes and Ole Gumoer of venicles at eacn entry node. Special attention must be given to tnose members of tne. permanent resident group wnich do not nave automobiles avail-aole for evacuation. Diis could occur in two instances. First, an evacuation mignt be declared at a time wnen none of U1e venicles owned by a nousehold are at nome. This could nappen during tne workday wncn all tne venicles are at work. Second, tnis would be of concern witn respect to close house-holds wnich do not have an automobile at all. A survey was recently conducted in Houston County to determine wnat nouse-nolos would recuire transportation during an evacuation. Only a small number of residents in Houston County responded to b11s survey. Tnis would indicate tnat tne number of persons witnout automobiles in tne county may be very small. Nevertneless, Ole
. emergency plans of Houston County, Henry County, and Early County do provide for persons W1o do not have automobiles available. D11s accomplisned in two ways. First, by way of tne survey described above, persons who expect to be witnout
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transportation are afforced an opportunity to alert the county governments of. 01e need~for transportation in an evacuation. Fur tn e rmo re , tne plans of these counties also include provi-sions wnereby, in the event of an emergency, persons needing transportation can contact their county governments. Counties will use bus service to provide transportation for these residents. The county plans also' provide - for cooperation . bitween residents so that persons without cars can be evacuated by their neighbors. Dierefore, the evacuation of persons not , naving automobiles does not appear to be a major concern in th ese areas. . Furtnermore, it does not appear tnat the evacua-6 tion of persons without automobiles would take substantially longer tnan the evacuation of the resident population wno drive tneir own autos,. since these--people would be evacuated by ous along with tne general population.
TABLE 3 PERMANENT RESIDENT VEHICLE LOADING (Daytime, Nign ttime and Week end) Entry Node Number of Vehicles Entry Node NumDer of Venicles 1 85 43 3 2 38 44 118 3 71 45 64 4 81 46 49 5 106 47 70 6 37 48 108 7 66 49 88 8- 38 50 39 15 95 51 26 16 39 52 35 17 75 53 17 18 182 54 78 19 185 55 76 20 , 32 56 26
- 21 59 57 33 22 22 58 136 23 49 59 47 24 57- 60 58 25 198 61 75 26 51 62 63 28 59 63 24 29
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28 64. 117 30 107 65 42 31 230 66 78 32 367 67 20
- 33 139 68 77 '
34 154 69 9 35 350 70 149
'5 6 . 12 9 71 27 37 57 72 53
- 38 74 73 84 39 17- 74 44 40 42 76 93 41 59 77 10
- 42 83' 78 - 58 m.-..__._._._..__._m_m_.-_m_____._______-____-_,_: -. .
The venicle loading attributable to recreational ~' population was determined on Die basis of a survey of tne numcer of parking spaces at eacn recreation area located witnin tn e E PZ . Civil Defense and law enforcement of ficials of U1e counties provided estimates of the number of parking spaces at tnese rect-ation f acilities. HMM field crews also inspected. eacn of the recreation areas. For eacn recreation area Tacle 4 provides tne entry node and the total number of venicles wnien mign t evacuate. Note tnat tnis table includes tne maximum numoer of venicles wnien could evacuate from eacn o f tn e recreation areas, not tne average weekend number. Since it is unlikely usat all recreation facilities will be full to capacity at tne same time, c1e results of tnis analysis snould De considered '.o be conservative. Venicle loading for tne worxer population was calculated according to tne number of workers in tne major work places during the normal workday, at nignt and on weekends. Furtnermore, discussions were held witn supervisory personnel at eacn of these work places to determine tne numDer of venicles used by tneir employees (i.e. , tne percentage of employees wno carpool and cle' number of employees who drive tn eir own automobiles) . Tauls 5 includes die results of tnis
. survey. Taole 5 includes tne names of c1e major work places, tne entry node, and the number of venicles wnicn would be evacuated during daytime, nignttime, and weekend periods.
The : Alaga Motel nas 8 rooms. It was assumed clat 8 automobiles would 'be used to" evacuate this facility during weekdays, evenings and weekends. Since Ulis facility is not full 100% of tne time, tnis is a conservative assumption. The rpecial facilities are made up entirely of senocls. Tne faculty of scnools may evacuate oy buses. However, it is also possible diat diey could evacuate via useir own automobiles. . Therefore, a conservative assumption was made biat the faculty of die senools evacuate via 01eir own
-automobiles. This is conservative because it tends- to increase tne number of venicles on tne road during tne evacuation-
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TABLE 4 - I RECRE ATION ARE A VEHICLE LOADING (Weekends Only) Name Entry Node Number of Venicles Georgia Coneelee Creek 60 40 Andrews Lock & Oam 75 60 Alabama 25
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TABLE 5 WORXER VEHICLE LOADING Entry Number of Venicles Name Node Day Nignt Weekenc Georgia Great Soutnern Paper 69 458 108 108 Great Soutnern Plywood 69 83 63 63 Star Paper Tube 69 11 0 0 Cn attan cocn ee Industrial Railroad 69 25 8 8 Cities Service Alum 69 3 3 3 Georgia Tubing 72 33 17 17 Alabama Farley Nuclear Station 27 917 0 0 Wex-Tex 11- 250 1 1 Industrial Innovators 13- 25 1 1' Soutnern Distillers 13 17 8 8 Freeman Company 12 58 4' 4
~ Columbia Boese 9 96_ 1 21 Columbia State Dock &
' Grain Elevator 10 4 0 0 Ag Industries. 10 8 8 8
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simulation. Students were assumec to evacuate ey bus. Ic was assumed clat 30 students would be carried by eacn cus. At tn e present time, well over 80% of tne student population of Houston County is transported to and from scncol oy buses. Under normal circumstances, during a scnool day, tnese ouses are kept witnin a few miles of tne scnools. Tne 72 county scnool busts would appear to provide adecuate cus capacity to evacuate eacn scnool in the EPZ witnout taking any special provisions to provide adoitional Duses. However, U1e Houston County Civil Defense Plan does provide for additional bus service for students if it is needed. Approximately 6 cuses are kept on standby in Asn ford in tne event cley are needed for evacuations or otner purposes. Fur tn e rmo r e , tne scnool system of tne City of Doulan, Alabama, located approximately 15 miles to tne west of tne Farley facility, nas agreec to provide its 57 senool ouses for evacuation of c1e student and autoless permanent population from witnin tne Alaoama EPZ in tne event 01at additional Duses are needed. Table 6 provides venicle loading for special facilities and includes facility, entry node, tne number of automobiles, and c1e numoer of cuses clien were evacuated from eacn of tne soecial facilities. II.E -Emergency Planning Zone and Suoareas Tne basic concept of tne EPZ is tnat it is a 10-mile radius circle. .Tnere-is a possioility blat this entire area could be evacuated. It is also possible that portions of tnis area would be evacuated, ra tn e r bl an tn e wn ole a rea . In determining whetner portions or tne wnole area would be
. evacuated, utility and state people would examine ele nature of - tne - accident and meteorological data in making tneir decision.
Figure 5 snows a 10-mile radius area;and Ole 16 22-1/20 sectors unien are ordinarily used for meteorological analysis at' nuclear-facilities.- These 16 sectors, as well as Die 10-mile radius circle, do not lend tnemselves for use in implementing actual evacuations because die lines maxing up t1e TABLE 6 . . SPECI AL FACILITY VEHICLE LOADING (Weekdays Only) - Facility Entry Node Automobiles Buses Asaford Academy 34 15 10 Asn ford Hign Sencol 35 75 50 4 Webb Jr.- Hign 6 23 15 Harmon Jr. Hign' 54 12 8 i i l Houston County Hign 17 29 19 4 e-s w D
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sectors and the circles ao not correspond to natural and - manmade landmarks readily discernible by the general population. Therefore state and local of ficials Jn Georgia and Alabama have designated sectors for protective action in tneir areas. Figure 2 snows the formally designated EPZ for the Farley Nuclear Facility as well as the sectors wnicn have been cesignated for protective action. Within tne State of Georgia, there are a total of six sectors. Within ble State of Alabama, there are eleven sectors designated. These are based on distances from die Fcriey unit of approximately two, five and ten miles. To tne greatest extent possible, in designating tnese sectors, state and local of ficials have used natural and nanmade landmarks witn whien they are familiar and wnien would be readily discernible by die resident population during an evacuation. As noted above, if an evacuation were declared, it may not require evacuation of the entire 10-mile radius EPZ. Th us , for purposes of this evacuation time estimate study, the EPZ was broken down into several combinations of subareas so that evacuation time estimates can be developed for different conditions. Each of tnese subareas is made up of one or more of tne sectors designated by' state and local officials in l Alabama and Georgia for tne Farley EPZ. Figure 6, the 2-mile area case, indicates ble two sectors which would be evacuated if a 2-mile area evacuation were declared. Figure 7, th e i 5-mile southwest area case, indicates the area that mignt be evacuated if an evacuation were declared out to five miles southwest of tne plant. - D11s area mign t be evacuated in the ! event ' of a north east wind. Figure 8, the 5-mile nortn west area case, shows the areas that might be evacuated if an accident occurred during a southeast wind. Areas.out to five miles are included in tnis case. Figure 9, tne 5-mile east area case indicates the areas that might 'be evacuated in the. event of a west wind if an evacuation were declared out to the 5-mile
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III. TRAFFIC CAPACITY III.A EPZ Road Network Tne evacuation analysis included tne evaluation of tne entire road network within ten miles of tne Farley Nuclear Station. Die EPZ road network is made up of five types of r'oads:
- 1) 4-lane divided h igh ways . Tnis type of road exists in only one location witnin tne EPZ, and that is U.S.
Route 84 in Georgia.
- 2) 2-lane h eavy-duty U.S. and state hign ways. Ulis type of road makes up most of tne major evacuation routes in tne Georgia and Alabama EPZ. Included in this group are tne 2-lane sections of Route 84 in Georgia and Alabama, Route 52 in Alabama, Rout,e 62 in Georgia, and Route 431 in Alabama. These are well designed neavy-duty roads, normally with 12-foot wide lanes, wnich are capaole of carrying large volumes ~of traf fic at hign speeds.
- 3) 2-lane state roads. tiuen of tne EPZ is traversed with 2-lane state roads of U1e medium-duty grade.
la ese normally h ave 10 to 11-foot lane widtn s. . Furtnermore, because tr e topograpny in U1e EPZ is relatively flat, and because tnese roads are relatively straignt in alignment, tnese roads can also carry relatively large volumes lof traf fic.
- 4) County roads. Diese are paved roads of medium-duty grade. Most of tnese roads nave lane widths of 9 to 10 feet. Althougn tney do not have as high a carrying capacity as the state , roads and U.S.
h3 7,nways, Uley are Still capable of carrying large volumes of traf fic because of the relatively straight alignments and because of tne relatively. flat topography witnin tne EPZ. _
- 5) Dirt roads. Tnere are large nuncers of dirt roads witnin tn e EPZ . Tnese would be capable of carrying -
substantial amounts of traf fic if necessary, because of their good condition and straign t alignments. However, it was assumed for purposes of tnis study that tne dirt roads witnin tne EPZ would not be recuirE$ during evacuations. Tne local and state Civil Defense of f'icials of Georgia and Alabama nave identified designated evacuation routes. Tn ese are discussed below. Furtnermore, Ole state and local of ficials nave designated plans for use by tne population during evacuations. Care nas been taken to avoid situations sucn as cross-tra f fic conflicts at intersections. Witnin tne EPZ, there are no interstate or otner limited access nignways. Therefore, tnere are no limitations wnicn mign t ce caused by on-ramp capacities on roads of c11s type. An evacuation scenario can be based on tne use of designated evacuation routes or upon a concept referred to as radial dispersion. During ulis study, a combination of these two concepts was used to simulate evacuations. Blat is, tn e
. state designated evacuation routes were used to carry tne bulk cf evacuating automobiles. At U1e same time, tne general flow of all-traf fic was controlled in suen a way as to constantly move it radially ~away from tne Farley Nuclear Site.
As part of tne analysis of travel times, an examination was made of potential locations for serious congestion in the road network. During tnis study, no serious traf fic problems were-cated. Blis is apparently tne result.of two factors:
- 1) Tne roadL network witnin tne EPZ nas a very large capacity - (i.e. , a ' large number ' o f n eavy-duty all-weadler roads capable of carrying-large volumes
- o f tra f fic at nigh speed) . .
.2) '_The. population witnin tne EPZ is not large relative to . cie road networx .
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III.8 Evacuation Roadway tJetwork Curing an evacuation, virtually all the paved roads in tne 10-mile EPZ might be used oy evacuating traf fic. However, tn e state and local Civil Defense planners nave designated certain routes as evacuation routes. In tne state plans, tne population is directed to move as expeditiously as possible toward these designated evacuation routes. Bien, tn e evacuating . population is expected to follow tne cesignated routes until tney nave reacned reception centers. In the State of Alabama, tne reception center for botn Henry County und Houston County is located in Dotn an, Alabama wnicn lies several
' miles west of tne EPZ. In Gsorgia, tne reception esnter for Early County lies in the Town of Blakely, wnien is northeast of tn e E PZ . Diere fore, eacn designated evacuation route is ultimately intended to carry evacuating traffic toward reception center,s. Designateo evacuation routes include tne following:
- 1) For Henry County, Alabama, tne designated evacuation route. is Route U.S. 431, wnich lies to the west of tn e E PZ .
- 2) For Houston County,. Slabama, tne designated evacuation routes include Alabama Route 52, Alabama Route 12 (whicn is also referred to as U.S.
Route 84) and Alabama Route 53.
- 3) In Early County, Georgia, the designated evacuation routes include Georgia Route 62, Georgia Route 273, Georgia Route 363, as well as otner roads in the southeastern portion .of tne EPZ whicn would tend to be used by employees of Great Southern Paper Company in an evacuation.
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During an actual evacuation, state of ficials may nave reason to
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define otner evacuation routes. D11s would depend on tne circumstances at nand. Figure 14 indicates tnose routes anicn nave been designated by state officials as evacuation routes. Also indicated on Figure 14 are otner major roads 11xely to ne used in an evacuation. In die course of use analytical work ,
- large-scale county nignway maps were used for studying tn e Georgia and Alabama areas. On U1ese larger maps, it was
-possible to identify and numoet discreet intersections and road segments. Tnis was a necessary part of tne networx analysis.
III.C Roadway Seament 01aracteristics During cie field studies and th rougn use o f maps, enaracteristics of tne roadway networx were inventorieo. Figure 15 is an example of U1e data sneet used to collect information on eacn of use links in tne evacuation network. Tnese data sneets also indicate other information wnien was collected in regard to road segments suen as pacted travel speed. Information was also collected on all intersections or nodes in tne networx. Figure 16 indicates a data sleet used to collect information in tne field on use nodes in tne network. Information on nodes includes lane widtn , approacn widtns, the presence of on-street parking on or near intersections, signalization,. intersection slape, stop signs, yield signs, and otner kinds of traf fic. control U1at would be significant in an evacuation network analysis. Information on nodes is of particular importance because-it is at intersections ulat
. bottlenecks in an evacuation network are likely to occur.
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ARTERlAL 0ATA NAME OF ARTERIAL: ROUTE NUfSER, IF ANY: MUNICIPALITY: I w . ,_ -~ - _
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a W
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I 6 SHOW ON DIAGRAM ABOVE:
- nut:BER OF TRAVEL' LANES AND TRAFFIC FLOW DIRECTION
- LOCATION OF ON-STREET PARKING, IF ANY
- GENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTH INDICATE BELOW (IN FEET)
- PAVEMENT WIDTH (W)
- SHOULDER WIDTH (S) (IF NONE, INDICATE)
- DISTANCE TO NEAREST OBSTRUCTION (D)
RIGHT LANE LEFT LANE
- POSTED SPEED LIMIT, IF ANY
- ACTUAL CRUISE SPEED
. WORST TRAFFIC GRADE (CIRCLE ONE) 0% 2% 4% 6% OvsR 6
- ROADWAY CHARACTER (ROADSIDE DEVELOPMENT, CONDITION OF ROAD, ETC.)
FIGURE 15 - LINK OATA SHEET
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INTERSECTION DATA NAME OF STREETS: NODE #: LOCATION OF INTERSECTION:(TOWN) SKETCH INTERSECTION LAYOUT BELOW, INDICATING:
- IRAFFIC FLOW, INCLUDING TURNING MOVEMENTS. --IRAFFIC CONTROL, IF ANY (STOF SIGNS, SIGNALS, ETC.). - STREET-WIDTHS, FROM CURB-TO-CURB IN FEET. - ON-STREET FARKING, IF ANY. - GENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTH.
FIGURE 16 - NODE -DATA SHEET O
, . s IV. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES IV.A Reporting Format Tne evacuation time estimate study was conductec in a manner wnien was intenced to icentify evacuation times for varying conditions of time and w e a tn er . For example, tn e evacuation time estimates were developed for daytime, nign ttime , and week end periods. Also, evacuation time estimates were developed for favorable and unfavoracle weatner conditions. Die purposes of examining dif ferent cases in unis manner were twofold:
- 1) It'was desired to examine evacuation time for different conditions in order to develop the best possiole estimate of evacuation time for eacn of tnose conditions.
- 2) <8y developing estimates for conservative and unconservative conditions, it was desired to develop a range of estimates for evacuation time.
Specifically, it-was: intended to cevelop time estimates based on favoraule~ assumptions and estimates based on very conservative assumptions, tne ultimate objective being- to identify Cle range of times- between wnich an evacuation is mostly likely to occur under norma.~ conditions of weatner, time, population, etc.
-In ' developing tne fair-weatner and adverse-weather cases, several potential- weatner situations were examined. It was determined Olat fair weather could occur during Ole daytime or
- at inig.i t . . Fair weatler is defined as any time, day or nign t, durir.y W11ch road conditions and visibility are sucn U1 a t
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. . s driving speeds are not reduced. Adverse weatner is defined as neavy rain or fog. During tnese conditions, driving speeds _
tend to be reduced substantially due to reduced visiollity and other factors. In tne simulations, adverse weatner was simulated by reoucing th e capacity o f tn e road networx . As mentioned above, tne tnree time periods examined were daytime, nign ttime, and week end. Tn e importance o f tn ese ti'me periods relates to tne population number as well as tne oistribution of tne population. For example, during tne week day , tn e following distribution of population would be expected:
- 1) One or more family members mignt be expected to be in eacn residence.
- 2) Senool enildren would be expected to be in scnool.
- 3) . Work places would be fully staffeo.
- 4) Recreational facilities would be empty.
- At nign ttime, we would expect the following situations:
- 1) Permanent- residents would be in Uleir nomes.
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- 2) Scnools would ce empty.
3)~ Work places would operate at reduced capacity or be closed completely.
- 4) Recreational facilities would be empty.
During th e week end, we would expect the following population distribution: -
- 1) Homes would probably be occupied by all permanent residents.
- 2) Scnools would be empty.
- 3) Most work places would be occupied by skeleton crews or would be closed down.
- 4) Recreational facilities would be in use.
IV.B Me tn odology Tn e me tn od for computing total evacuation time is based on several , components. This includes times to alert or notify the
. general' population, time for. preparation, and time for persons co evacuate the critical areas. The time reauired to alert and notify the population, once a decision is made to evacuate, will depend upon ~tne metnods ureo to notify the population. As Alabama -Power is committed to instalation of a siren and tone radio _ system whicn conforms to NUREG-0654, it should be assumed
, diat'the specifications of that federal guideline will be met
.for. the alert function. The time estimates developed during this study assume that all persons have been notified at Time equals zero. D1us, the estimates developed in this study
~
include estimates for preparation and evacuation. IV.B.1 Preparation Preparation time is tne first component of evacuation time
~
wnicn was developed during this study. Local of ficials were
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interviewed to determine their estimates of probable' time intervals.for preparation. Of ficials estimated that the permanent population could begin -tne evacuation (i.e. , leaving t v
tneir nomes) between five minutes and one nour of tne point of notification. Tnerefore, it was assumed tn a t , for tn e .. permanent population of tne area in Alabama and Georgia, tn e average preparation time would be 30 minutes. In tne computer simulation, tnese venicles entered tn e ne t work at a steady rate from Time ecuals 5 minutes to Time ecuals 55 minutes. D11s simulates a pnased entry witn a mean preparation time of 30 minutes. Preparation time for work places was also examined. For tne Farley Nuclear Station, tnc evacuation of tne plant ouilaings during an emergency could be accomplisned in well below 30 minutes. However, it would be necessary to follow accountability procedures before any persons would be permitted
. to leave the site. It is estimated by Alabama Power Company that tne time recuired for persons to leave Die buildings at tne nuclear station, go unrougn accountability procedures and tnen be prepared to leave tne site would be an average of 30 minutes or less. It was assumed tnat cars would leave tne site via two access roads, eacn witn a capacity of 20 cars per minute. During the worxday, once tne evacuation is cegun at Time eauals 30 minutes, it would take.23 more minutes for 917 cars to clear the site. _
In tne case of tne industrial complex at Great Soutnern Paper Company, wnien includes five dif ferent industrial facilities, tn e following assumptions were made:
- 1) According to tne Emergency Plan - for Great Soutnern Paper. Company, if a plant emergency were declared at tne Great Soutnern facility, plant workers would first be required to go insice and assemble with
- tn eir supervisors. Tne plant Safety Supervisor nas estimated ulat Ulis could be accomplisned in an average of five minutes.
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9
- 2) Tne Emergency Plan for tne Great Soutnern facility would tnen recuire tnat workers wait inside until tney nave received instructions from their supervisors.
- 3) Once they nave receivec instructions to evacuate, workers would then move to tne parxing lot and evacuate by bleir own automobiles.
- 4) It is tnerefore assumed tnat the average time for preparation at ble Great Soutnern Industrial Complex would be 30 minutes or less. Based on an assumed exit road capacity of 20 cards per minute, it would take 29 minutes for 580 workoay cars to leave tne site once tne evacuation begins.
Tne otner worx places in tne EPZ are smaller in size ano are' capable of Deing evacuated in less usan 30 minutes once ble notice to evacuate nas been received. For example, a worx place wnien employs only 30 employees during tne worxday is capable of completing the preparation stage in well Delow 30 minutes. However, it was conservatively assumed in 011s study
'tn at 911 work places witnin tne 10-mile EPZ would recuire 30
-minutes for preparation to evacuate.- Tnus, no cars from work places were entered into the network until Time ecuals 30 minutes.'
ecreational population was assumed to respond in a manner similar to worker population.- Specifically, it was assumed tnat no recreational. visitor would begin evacuating in less than 30 minutes. Preparation time for special f acilities (sdicol buses) was based on Use following assumptions:
- 1) - During i tne scnool day, senool buses are ordinarily kept at the nome of tne school bus drivers, and usese people normally live in Ule general vicinity of the schools tnat they : serve.
D
- 2) It would take approximately 15 minutes fe- ese school bus drivers to leave their homes and begin .-
moving buses to tne schools. Blis is based on the assumption Ulat utese individuals, since tney would be employees of tne County, would receive suf ficient training usat tney could prepare and leave their nomes in a snorter time than the normal resident 'who is assumed to recuire an average of 30 minutes preparation.
- 3) Die scnool buses will be brougnt to tne schools and prepared for loading witnin 15 additional minutes.
- 4) witnin 15 additional minutes, eacn scnool bus could be loaded with students and be prepared to leave.
- 5) D1us, a total of 45 minutes would be required, on an average basis, for the schools in Houston County to
~
complete preparation and begin evacuation of students by bus. According to the County Evacuation Plan, scnool students would not walk home, form family groups and. evacuate from bleir nomes. On th e contrary, according to ble County Evacuation Plan, all students would be evacuated by school bus. Bl ey would be reunited with 01eir families at the - reception center in Dothan, Alabama.
. One assumption of. tnis study must be reiterated. . Tn e evacuation plans for the State of Georgia and tne State of Alabama- do not provide for persons traveling home to form family. groups before beginning evacuation. Instead, at th e time an evacuation is announced, each person is required, on tneir own, to' evacuate to the assigned reception center. Th u s ,
persons at home at the time an evacuation is announced are
~
expected to evacuate to the reception center, while persons at
. works at tne time an evacuation 'i.s announced are. also expected ton gof directl'y to the reception center. .iere is no provision for the formation of family groups prior to evacuation. Furthermore, tn e anticipated installation of ~
rnadblocks around secured areas, pursuant to state plans, is likely to prevent Ole re-entry of persons into sectors of tne EPZ for purposes of forming family groups. Families are expected to De reunited at reception centers in Dotnan, Alabama
.and Blakely, Georgia.
IV.B.2 Evacuation Once the preparation stage is over, the evacuation may begin. As mentioned above, it was assumed tn at th e mean preparation time will be 30 minutes for the general population, the minimum preparation time will be 30 minutes for the worker population, wnile use minimum preparation time for scnools will be 45. minutes. The computer simulation was started at tne time w1en persons are notified to evacuate, Time equals zero. At tne point in time in wnich evacuation began, the NETVAC model began feeding venicles into the computer network at a pre-determined rate. Vehicles entered the network at entry nodes. .Tnese entry nodes are shown on Figure 4. Separate entry nodes were designated for the following four groups:
- 1) Permanent population,
- 2) Scnool population,
- 3) Worker population, and
'4) Recreational population.
is Special facilities, work . places ani recreation areas-are shown in. Figure 13. - The . automobiles entered the simulation network and t raveled th rougn - the various linx t and nodes making up tne n !twork . .Th e simulation capability of tne NETVAC model allows i': to stack or-queue cars at locations whr7e this would be
likely to occur in an actual evacuation. Tne NETVAC model also ' For example, wnen performs otner operations wnich are of note. :. an automobile reacnes a node and is about to enter a link wh ien is full, tne computer model nas tne capability to uivert tn a t car.onto an alternate link, tnus imitating the cenavior of the driver W10 would tend to select alternate routes wnen appropriate. Blis capability of the NETVAC program encourag'es a more even distribution of traffic flow tn rougn out tn e ne twork , and more closely imitates reality tnan would tn e computer program wnich inflexibly routes automobiles down specific roads, even tnose full to capacity. The computer simulation process continued until all tne venicles lef t the sector being evacuated. The sector is considered- fully evacuated at tnat point in time when the last
.venicle originating in tne sector passes an exit node for tnat
. sector._ Table 7 provides a list of maximum evacuation times for tne various areas in the EPZ. .Tnese correspond to the areas delineated in Figures 2 and 6 througn 13. Note th a t tn e It evacuation times in tnis table are maximum values, not average values for. evacuations.- Diese include fair weatner conditions for workdays, nign ttime -and weekends. Also included on this table is .an estimate. for the adverse weatner condition. D11s
. was based on an adverse weatner simulation of tne slowest of ute three fair weatner estimates. D11s was done to examine very conservative cases and -tnereby identify limits to the - range Lof values for eacn area. Adverse- weatner was simulated - f ~ by reducing the ' capacity _ of tne network. LTn'e evacuation time requirements for blat segment of the population wnien L must be provided witn transporta tion is also
-of! concern. J As discussed above, Civil Defense officials nave already been notified Lof the names and location of some of
. ltnese individuals.. In addition, during-emergencies, Georgia
_ and Alabama plans provide ,for -tne. notification of of ficials by
~
L personsjin need of_ transportation.- Furthermore, scnool buses-
'w'ill b'e available to- evacuate tnose personsf wno cannot be
' evacuated by. die'ir neignbors. . It is believed tnat evacuation
~
o of L these persons would- not involve a significantly. greater
~ period Lof time tn an -evacuation 'o f tn e- permanent population. -
TABLE 7 , , MAXIMUM EVACUATION TIMES FOR EPZ AREAS (Minutes) Figure Wo rk day EPZ Area Nos.* Wor % day Nign t time W e ek end Adverse , Mile 6, 18 60 55 55 70 5-M11es SW 7,.19 65 60 60 90 5-Miles.tav 8, 20 70 65 65 80 5-Miles E 9, 21 70 60 60 80 10-Miles 1SW 10,22- 135 70 70 190
' 10-Miles NW 11,23 80 70 70 100 10-Miles NE. 12,24 70 60 65 70 10-Miles SE 13, 25 80 60 60 80
.10-Miles 2, 17 -135- 70 70 190 4
- Corresponding : geographic areas and probability _ distributions.
O
-- _m-'
,w .c ---.
f4URE G-0654 page 4-7 indica'.es tnat two approacnes are acceptable for analyzing preparation and evacuation time. Tn e - first approacn suggested involves secuential assumption of preparation and evacuation. It would assume tnat no person Degins to evacuate until all persons are prepared to evacuate. LU11s'approacn tends to overestimate evacuation time. B11s - approacn has not been used in tnis study. In this study, comoined preparation times and evacuation times we'.e developed. D11s was done in tne following manner. Distri'ution functions for preparation time were not ceveloped
~
on a sector-by-sector casis. Instead, estimated values of preparation time, as oiscussed above, were used for eacn population group. These were included in tne computer simulation. The evacuation time estimates include time for
~
preparation and for evacuation. Blus, the probability distributions produced in Ulis analysis reflect preparation tim.e for each distinct population group and evacuaticn time for the' total population in eacn area evacuated. Figures 17 tnrougn 25 provide probability distributions for evacuation scenarios for eacn of the areas delineated in Figure 2 and Figures 6 Ulrougn 13. : These probability distributions indicate ither amount of time necessary for: dif ferent numbers of persons
~
to leave th e stated ' areas. For example, Figure 17 snows Ulat, for tn e week da.v. good weatn er , 10-mile case, over 50% of tne autos will leave _ tne area witnin 50 minutes, but tne last car ~ will not leave for 135 minutes. : D 4 me 3 9 - w
WORKDAY NIGHTTIME to 10 9- 9-8- 8-C 7 8 7-8- o 56- 56-3 5- % 5-o u 34 34-d d z3 23-2- 2-1 1-
"~
. a . . . . i 6 6 a . . . 6 i O 20 4C 6C 80 100 120 140 160 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Minutes Minutes WEEKEND ADVERSE WO_RKDAY _
10 10 9- ! 9-8-
~
8- n [ o 8' 8' 56-56- . 3 5- \ U l 25 - l u 3 4- ! 3 4- 6 f 23-23-2- 2-1- 1-l 6 6 4 a 6 . 6 + i l l 6 6 4 a 6 6 a i O 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 O 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Minutes f Minutes FIGURE 17 - PROBASILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: NUMBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM ThZ 10 MILE EPZ i i l 1
-- . .. . - _ . ~ . _ _ _
l 1 WORKDAY NIGHTTIME 11 11- ,, , 10 10-9- 9-l 8- 8-O I' O i' S S
= 6- = 6- ,
3 5- 3 5-u o 3 4- 3 4-3- N3-2 2-1- 1-e
- 8
. , a . . . . a . . 6 e a 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes WEEKEND ADVERSE WORKDAY 11- 11 10- 10 9- 9-
~
8- 8- t o 7- o C 7-9
= 6- = 6-
!5-o (5-u
; 4- g4 3- [3-2- 2-1- 1 ,
. a a . . e a 6 . . .- . s a e 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes FIGURE 18 - PROBASILITY DISTRIBUTIONS:
NUMBER L' VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 2-MILE ARE A
I
. l l
l l WORKDAY NIGHTTIME - 11-10-9- 8- 4-o C 7-
= 6- 3-
. 8 3 5- "
u g4
- 2-
- u
$ 3- 3 2- j ,1 -
1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Minutes Minutes
^
WEEKEND 11-10-9 4- 8' o I* 9 3 =6-
=
!5-u '
{2-U 3 4-d j g z 3-2 Q 1-1 l l 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 W nutes Minutes FIGURE 19 - PROBASILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: NUMSER OF VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 5-MILE SOUTH' NEST ARE A l l
WORKDAY 26-24 NIGHTTIME 22- n. ,, 20- 30 18- 9-16- 8-14- o7 8 e
= 6-e 210- 3 5-3 u 8- 3 4-3 j6- $3-4- 2-2- 1
. . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0 to 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes ADVERSE WORKDAY WEEKEND 24-ti. 22- ! 10- 20-9- 18~ I 8- 16-o 7' 1 l- 8 l 6- , a l 5 5- 2 %- l u y
; 4- 8-3 h 3- j6 2- 4 l ,
1 . 2-
. . . . . a e a . . . ' . . . . a a 0 10 20 00 40 50 60 70 80 0 to 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Minutes Minutes i
I FIGURE 20 - PROSABILITY DISTRISUTIONS: NUMSER OF VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 5-MILE NORTHWEST ARE A l-
NIGHTTlME WORKDAY 11 11 __ 10- 10-9- 9-8' 8-o 7- o 7-9 9 !
= 6- = 6 l e e 3 5- ; 5-o o i g 4- g 4-I 3- N 3-2 2-1- 1
. . . . . e . 4 . a . . . e i a 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes WEEKEND ADVERSE WORKDAY 11 - 11
( 10- 10-l 9- 9 i . l 8- 8- [ [ o I* o 7-l 9 9
= 6- = 6-l e . '
3 5- l 3 5-u ! u
; 4- g 4-I3- I3-2- 2 l
1- 1 6 i . . . a e a , a . . . a a a 0 10 20 30 40 'A 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 M 5:.ut es Minutes FIGURE 21 - PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: NUMBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 5-MILE E AST AREA l t 1 l
l' WORKDAY NIGHTTIME 5 5 4 4-o o h3- h3-M M
? 2 0 2- 0 2-t i d d I j. j.
6 6 . 6 6 6 e a i a . 6 6 6 . 6 6 . . . 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Minutes Minutes
' WEEKEND ADVERSE WORKDAY 5- 5 4 4-o o h3- h3- -
2 C { O 2- 0 2-t 3 1- 1-
/
O 2b 40 60 80 1b 120 lb 160180 2bo O 20 40 60 80 1bo1201b1bo1bo2bo Minutes Minutes l FIGURE 22 - PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: NUMBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 10-MILE SOUTHWEST ARE A em ~ ~m --s - - e ,w - , , - , v - - ,, w -
. , s WORKDAY NIGHTTIME 26- 26-24- 24- . , .
22- 22-20- 20-18- 18-16- 16-14- 14-8 8 M 4 210- 510-0 0 8- 8' j6- j6-4- 4-2- 2-
/
r , s s s s a a e . . s s s e s s . s e 0 to 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 to 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Minutes Minutes WEEKEND ADVERSE WORKDAY 26- 26-24 24-22- 22-20- 20' 18- 18-l 16- 16-14- 14-l 8 8 t l- 4 4
~
210- 2 10 a 6 8- 8-3 ' j6' j 6-4- 4 2 2-i . . . . . . . . . i i i . . . . . e , 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Minutes Minutes i FIGURE 23 - PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: NUMBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 10-MILE NORTHhEST ARE A l I
--%+ = = &- c- , ,w * - - . - ,
WCRKDAY NIGHTTIME 11- 11- , 10- 10-9- 9-8- 8-o 7- o 7-9 9
=6 =6-3 5- 3 5-o u 34 3 4-3- I3-2 2-1-
1
/ . .
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes WEEKEND ADVERSE WORKDAY 11- 11-10- 10-9 , 9-8- 8' o 7- o 7-o o
~
= 6- = 6-3 5- 3 5-u u 34 3 4-3* 3-2- 2 1- 1-6 4 a e 4 . -a e a '. . . . . a 0 to 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes FIGURE 24 - PROSABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS:
NUNSER OF VE 'CLES EVACUATING FROM THE lO-MILE NORTHE AST ARE A 61- A w ~ >w- ,, yy, . - - , , w 'eey--m-g - .dw -- aw--pg-
WORKDAY NIGHTTIME 11- 11 10- 10 l 9- 9- f 8- 8' O I' o I* 9 9
= 6- = 6-
$5- $5-o o
g4 g 4-N3- I3-2 2 1- 1 6 . . . . . . i a 6 . . . . """I O 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes ADVERSE WORKDAY WEEKEND 11- 11 10- 10 9- 9- - 8' 8 o 7- o 7-S S
= 6- =6-
~
$5- $5-o u
g 4- g 4-l I3- j a-l 2- 2 1- 1 a e i 6 . i - i . . . . . a , i 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 to 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Minutes Minutes l L FIGURE 25 - PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS: NUMBER 0 VEHICLES EVACUATING FROM THE 10-MILE SOUTHEAST ARE A l l * (
.- . -. - - .. . = . - . - . . ... - . . - _ - . - . - - - -
V. OTHER REQUIREMENTS Confirmation is that process by wnicn public of ficials after an evacuation monitor the evacuated area to confirm tnat all residents and workers nave departed. To mak e th e confirmation process as expeditious as possible, the plans for Die State of Georgia and the emergency plan
- for tne State o'f Alabama ' include provisions whereby departir.g residents will place a handkerchief on tne front of tneir buildings or
~
residences at tne time they evacuate. Blis will allow tn e confirmation process via law enforcement venicle to be conducted in an expeditious manner. Fur th ermo re , tne state plans include provisions for use of road blocks to secure all areas after they have been evacuated. It is believed tnat tnis will also expedite the confirmation process by reducing any
. excess ' tra f fic f rom ente ring the evacuated areas. Estimates of confirmation time nave been developed by local Civil Defense officials. Table 8 includes diese estimates.
The analysis above for preparation and evacuation time for recreational visitors includes those visitors wno are located in public parks. It: does not include those visitors wno are boating-on the Olattancocnee. Some of the recreational facilities located along ble river include boat launcning ramps. ~The 01attahoocnee River is used- for fisn ing by
. recreational visitors. Tne state plans for Georgia and Alabama ,
L provide for notification and evacuation of persons on tne river-by 5 tate Conservation of ficials. Th e plans call for th ese o f ficials . to launch boats into the river at points nortn and soutn. ends - o f Ltn e EPZ. - Th ese o f ficials would then comb .tn e river by boat and alert anyone of the need to evacuate. It is r l assumed that _ persons evacuated from U1e river would eitner return .to boat' launching ramps and leave by- private venicle or 01at persons would be evacuated by state conservation of ficials-
~and' government vd11cles. It. is estimated dist- persons who are t
.on- the . river could be notified and evacuated within two to I' 'th ree . h our s .
p t
e'. . TABLE 8 CONFIRMATION TIMES (I)
~ Two 1800 Sectors Alabama 2 miles 1/2 nour
-Georgia 2 miles 1/2 nour Four 900 Sectors
.,- Alabama 5 miles 1 nour
. Georgia 5 miles 1 nour Four'90 0 Sectors Houston County,~AL. 10. miles 2-1/2 hours Henry County, AL- 10 miles l' hour (2)
E'arly county, GA 10 miles 2 nours ,
' (1) ~
Civil Defense and law ~ enforcement of ficials indicate tnat-the . number' of Venicles available . for roadblock s ' and
- confirmation would- include 40 in Alabama 'and 2:0 in Georgia. ,
(2) ~ l-1/2 n'ours _ at 'nignt and .during adverse weather.
.h-s u
.. -g, s -
This draf t report has been prepared for purposes of review by officials of Alabama Power Company; tne State of Alabama;
' tne State of.Ceorgia; Henry County, Alabama; Houston County,
^ Alabama; and Early County, Georgia. Their comments will be considered in the preparation of tne final craf t. Tne final evacuation. time estimate study report will be forwarded to tn e
. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission on or before April 1, 1981.
O 9 e s E r) v r .
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