ML19351E756

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Public Version of Me Yankee Emergency Planning Zone Evacuation Time Estimates
ML19351E756
Person / Time
Site: Maine Yankee
Issue date: 05/23/1980
From:
Maine Yankee
To:
Shared Package
ML19324A107 List:
References
NUDOCS 8012190178
Download: ML19351E756 (26)
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{{#Wiki_filter:i O MAINE YANKIZ E?Z EVACUATION TIME EST2'_A*ES 1 e a es a b sn12100 1/77

=- TA3LE OF CONTEM S Section Paze No. A INTRCDCCTION. 3 ASSUM.?TICNS. 1. Evacuation Situations.. 2. Regional 'Jarning. C METHODOLOGY. 1. Sector Definition. 2. Routes and Methods of Transportation. 3. Evacuation Time Components. 4. Demographic Data.... D SPECLu. EVACUATION FROBLDi LCCATIONS....... E COM3INED SECTORS 8 and 9............... A??ENDII A E7ACUATION TIME TABLES A'.O FIGURES 3 REPRESENTATIVE CALCUIATION SHE75 C SPECIAL FACILITIES 3ACRGROUND LTl0F3.ATION D NRC MDd.0 Y

i e L.. j A. B"10 DUCTION 1 In late.1979, the Nuclear Regula:ory Co==ission (NRC) requested all l licensed nuclear power f acilities to prepare, as a par: of e=argency planning, l ti=e est -a:es for evacuating c ani:1es within the e=ergency planning zone d (EPZ). Maine Yankee Ato=ic Power Co=pany retained :he Idward C. Jordan Co=- l pany to prepara a report on EPZ evacuation ti=e esti=a:es for ::ans=i::a1 to 1 the NRC. During the past several months, Jordan Co=pany staff =et with officials of the State of Maine Depart =ents of Transportation (MDOT) and Civil E=argency Preparedness (CEP) to review highway data available vi:hin the region, and to asse=ble and analy:e population data. The enclosed report contains the re-suits of this analysis and provides ti=e esti=ates for sector-based evacuation of the E?Z. Evacuation ti=a esti=ates are based on the NRC-required EPZ sector di-visions of 1, 5-and 10-=ile radii, not on the State of Maine's :own-by-covn evacuation plans. Wile 1: is possible act everyone vill choose : evacua:e, should such action be reco== ended by the Governor, :he enclosed esti=ates assume co=plete sector evacuations. ~he bes case condition assu=ed good wea:her and year-round population levels a: the ti=e of ' evacuation. This population is applicable :o the area fro = late Septe=ber to approxi=ately June 1 each year. The adverse weather condition assumed a co=bination bad weather and su==er population (4 =enths). Dense fog was utill:ed as the bad weather condition for several reasons. First, dense fog occurs with reasonable fre-quency during the high populatica su==er =enths (as well as at other ti=es). Second, i:s ef fect on vehicular operation is certain, since visibility is ) 'vr' m, . -, +.,,

c reduced and research has docu=ented an' attendant reduction in speed.

Third, fog seldo=, if ever, is acce=panied by wind, providing a relatively stagnan:

at=osphere in the E?Z, thereby li=1:ing the dispersion of a radioactive ts-lease. A fourth reason is that coastal areas vinter weather condi:1ons tend to be =ederated by ocean te=peratures causing coastal snow stor=s to be gener-ally less severe than inland. These two conditions, high su==e population add ::ansportation-crippling weather, ce=bine to p;cvide a adverse case for the calcula: ice of the =axi=u= esti=ated time needed for evacuation. The selected adverse weather condition recognizes that population concentrations during the s"--a will lengthen,:he time required for evacuation and are fel: to be greater than win:e snow speed redue ions. - I:structions f cm the Governor to the public will be provided via radio and television stations. A regional warning sys:em will instruct the public to turn to radios for e=ergency updates and instrue:1ons. Several syste=s are currently being evalcated by the region for notifying the general public. All evacuation ti=e esti=ates assu=e a =obilization ti=e of 1.1 hours, which includes ti=e for notification based on the currently their operating Paul Revere syste= and ti=e for individuals to i=ple=ent personal evacuation from :he co== unity. Depending on the system ulti=ately chosen by the F.aine Bureau of Civil For the E=ergency ?:eparedness, this average of 1.1 hours could be reduced. ANCHRP Repor: 195, 1970, page 22. ~_

purposes of this estimate for current conditions, however,1.1 hours is fel: to be reasonable. 1. Confir:ation of Ti=e Estimate Underlying the require =en for a confir:ation t=e estimate is the belief that not all residents may desire :o leave in the event of an emergency. Each ce=sunity in the E?I has prepared an e=ergency plan which includes a provision for e=ergency workers to check all roads within the c'.__anity and of fer assistance to any residents experiencing vehicular problems. The geo-graphic areas for these road checks are the sa=e as those assigned to notifier sea =s. ThEssareasareddddgnatedonmapslocatedineache=ergencyoperating einis:-(EOC). Each area was established to provide co=plete 'vehicla coverage within apprdxi=ately'30':5 45 minutes. ~ 's each area is ciaared, e=argency personnel vill report to the local EbC. Once all cu__anity areas are cleared, the procedures are to close the ECC, notify the County ZOC tha: the evacuation has been ec=pleted, and ::ans-f er authority for further actions to County.0fficials. Each ce__anity is expected to be cleared within one hour of evacuation completion. C. METEODOLOGY The =ethod of esti=ating evacuation ti=es is based on the concepts of highway capacity, "::avel ti=e", " delay ti=e", and vehicular volu=e and dis-ribution. The procedure began with the definition of EPZ secters based on NRC criteria. Next, population and dwelling concentrations were identified, and :he roadway syste= divided into routes, links and route groups. Following i

the identification process, road characteristics obtained f:ce the MDOT vere used to calculate capacd y, ::avel ti=e, and delay tine for each link. The link vith the larges ceabined ::avel and delay tine was used to deternine the evacuation ti=e for that sector. The folleving is a note detailed explanation of the nethod. 1. Sector Definition The first step in esti=ating evacuation ti=e was the division of the area around Madne Yankee into three concentric circles vi:h radii of 2, 5 and 10 niles, as required by the NRC. Each circle was then divided radially into sectors - the 2 nile radius divided in half, with :he 5 and 10 nile radii divided into quarters. This division resulted in a total of ten sectors (see

=

Figure 1). Included in the I?Z vere the entire ce== unities of ?hippsburg, Georgetown and Southport even though portions of these towns are south of and beyond the 10-c11e radius (see Figure 1). This was done fo: two reasons: 1) thet: inci-den: plans are :own-oriented; and 2) access to these towns is through the I?2. 2. Reures and Methods of Transcor:ation Once the sectors were defined, the roadway systa= vas divided into links and cutes. A cute is a najor road that carries a large amount of traffic. These routes are designated by lar:ars. Links or su'odivisions within a route are designated with numbers. Routes with a ec==en ext: f:0= the I?Z are designated as a " route g oup". l l 1

[ 4 Roadway conditions, obtained fro: MDOT files, were used in calcula:ing capacity. Roadway inf or=ation collected for each link included: 1) lane wid:h; 2) shoulder width 3) the distances of these widths; and 4) the road =aintenance nu=ber assigned by MCOT. 'Jithin each link, the roadway section with the nos: critical characteristics was used to calculate capacity." These characteristics are reduced to factors to be applied to an ideal, two-lane, two-way roadway capacity of 2000 vehicles per hour. Sus and truck factors vers each based on one percent of the total traffic strea=. The au:o=obile was assu=ed to be the pri=ary neans of evacua: ion. 3. Evacuation Tine Comoonents Th:se components - travel t1=e, delay ti=e, and mobili:ation tine - were used to develop estimated evacuation ti=es. Travel ti=e was calcula:ed for each link based on an assu=ed average speed for evacuating vehicles (30 aph) and the link length. This speed is consisten: vi h general engineering stan-dards for level three road conditions. The travel :1=e for a given location to be evacuated was, therefore, the sum of the travel :i=es for all the links traveled be:veen that location and the appropria:e I?: radius (2, 3, or 10 =iles, as applicable). Delay ti=a was deter =ined for each link by calculating the ti=e required for all necessary vehicles to pass the point of leas capacity on that link. Since the basis of the study is to calculate the ti=e required for the last vehicle to leave, 1: is the last vehicle with which we are concerned. This 'dR3 Special Report 37, "Eighway Capacity Manual, 1965 Chapter 10".

study is based on instantaneous loading of vehicles which assu=es that all vehicles are moving at once. In f act, vehicles will be added during a :ine span thus reducing potential delays caused by overloading rou:es. The appli-cable delay time along the path of any evacuating vehicle is, :herefore, the longest single link delay time along tha: path. This is derived by reviewing road conditions from MDOT files to deter =ine the nos critical route loca:Lon with the lowest capacity. Since no grea:er road capacity is possible than the ~ point of least capacity, this point vill determine a whole routes capacity, an important factor,in determining delay :ise. 3 4 Finally, the mobilization time of 1.1 hours, based on an IPA repor: was added. Totals for. hese three components were calculated for all logical sector. evacuation _ routes and.the. highes: total (indicating longest ti=e) used, as the esti=ated time required to evacuate each radius. '41th the last. vehicle out as a basis for es_timating the evacuation time, 1; is important to note that the vast najority of evacuees vill leave the area before the estima:ed ti=e. Ivacuation ti=e esti=ates for special facili:1es were calculated si=1-larly with the exception of the sobilization time. Since the figure of 1.1 hours was inappropria:e, each f acility was contacted and a ti=a for = obi-lization date:=ined in discussions with a :ssponsible representative of the institution. Appendix C contains information on these discussions. 4. Demograohic Data In estimating the evacuation time for each sector, it was necessary to determine the nu=ber of anticipated vehicles which would be using each of the -Ixcept for hospi:als and nursing homes. 1

  1. pA 520/1-73-0013, Rev. e-73, ?rotec:1ve Action Evaluation, Part II, pg. 53.

l 2 l l Average 2f esti=a:ed cobiliza*d -~ -4 e given the range C.2 to I hours. l

cads. The number of residents and housing units within the region was firs deter d ed on a co== unity by ec-_anity basis. Since accurate housing counts and people per uni: are available only during census periods, the best avail-able da:a projected to 1980 was that of the Maine State Planning Office (SPO) in its 1980 population and housing uni: esti=ates. Other sources utilized in projecting year round and seasonal ::affic flows included: 1. Sureau of Parks and Recreation - Annual Day 7se Report-1979 2. MDOT Cultural Facili:1es Maps-esti=ated date 1975. ~ 3. Telephone conversations with Scothbay Region Cha=ber of 0 =nerce, Town Managers, Hospital Ad=inistrators and Nursing Ho=e Ad=ini-s :ators. To esti= ate, by link, the number of vehicles expected :o be generated from each highway section,' Jordan Co=pany persennel asse= bled 1980 SPO demographic data by com: unity, counted housing units fro: MDOT =aps by link, and ex::apo-lated the counted units to distribute updated figures throughout the co==u-Essentially, we had up-to-date population figures, out-of-date'distri-nity. bution data, and had to pull thes together. The f ollowing is an exa:ple of the process used. ET?OTHETICAL EXAMP1.E Town of Example Persons / Yea ?coulation Year Rcund Units Household Seasonal Units 1970 2500 (census) 1087 2.3 300 1980 3100 (S?o-es:.) 1343 (es.) 2.3 450 (est.) i

Link Analysis Year-Round Seasonal Link Counted Extrapolated Counted Extrapolatec Population No. Units Units Units Units Year Round 1* 220 273 15 23 6:3 2 157 195 220 330 449 3 345 432 40 60 993 4 362 443 25 37 1030 1087 1348 300 450 3100

  • Note:

Link i has a ca=pground located within its boundaries with an estimated 200 ca=psites. Include an additional 200 vehicles. ~ In each link for the year-round evacuation :1=e esti=a:e, a =ul:1 plier of 1.1 was used to account for a ten percent increase in traf fic over the esti=a:ed nu=ber of units. This would provide for those fa=ilies who =ight evacuate using more than' one vehicle, and for day workers in the area. Thus,.for Link 1, as an esa=ple, we estimated that 300 vehicles will be supplied to that segment of highway (273x1,1) frem its geographic area. The seasonal evacuation time estimate includes defined stata parks and ca=pgrounds plus a ul:1 plier of 3.4 :ises* the nu=ber of year-round and sea-sonal units for the 3cotabay region :o accoun: for the high nu=ber of Oran-sients who are either working in the 3cotabay region during :he su==er or are vist:ing the area. (Exa=ple: Link 2: 195-330=525x3.4=1735 vehicles.) For all other areas, a =ul:1 plier.of 1.5 was used. For areas of known loca:1ons

  • The 3.4 sultiplier was derived by taking estimates frem officials of the region on nu=ber of vehicles in the region (

) and dividing by :he nu=ber of esti=ated vehicles in the region for su==ar and year-round housing units ( ). The sul:1 plier then provides a figure which =ay be distributed throughout the region.

of large nt:bers of cars, these vehicles were added to the link (Ixample - 3a:h I::n Works contributes 1500 vehicles year round and Pophas 3each contri-butes 397 vehicles / day du 1sg the peak su==e: =enths.) D. SPECI.u. EVACUATION LOCATICNS Only cue area within the EPI exhibits significant special evacuation times. Cc=pletely included in Secto: 9, the towns of Scothbay, Boothbay Earbor, and Southport were calculated :o have a adverse weather evacuation time esti= ate of just over seven hours. This estimated evacuation :i=a is ~ attributable to a combination of two factors. First, the peninsular nature of the area requires ::avelers to be within the EP for several siles.

Second, the roadway system, while adequate for the year-round population, would.be_

eeverly taxed during a su=mer evacuation. In response :o this situation, local planning has included attention to shel:ering as an al'.ernative ;;otective action to evacuation. Communities in the I?: have identified public shel:e: Iccasions which would be opened by e=ergency service personnel durtag a c:esunity =obili:stion. E. CCM3INED SECTORS S AND 9 While not required by the NRC criteria, the unique nature of the 3co:hbay Peninsula and roadway system suggested one additional study, combining sectors 3 and 9. In considering evacuation time estimates for these combined sectors, it should be noted that wind conditions plume concentrations and other f actors would probably no: require the sectors to be evacuated s1=ultaneously. The esti=ated evacuation :i=es for ce=bined sectors 8 and 9 are 3.0 hours and 7.7 hours respectively for the nor=al and most adverse scenarios.

= t:.' APPENDIX A IN RCDt!C'" ION TO TA3LES & FIGL*RES The folleving tables & figures contain Eiacuation Ti=e Esti=a:es for the 10-mile radiu's e=ergency planning :ene (I?!) ::Jund the Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant. The informatica is provided in both tabular and =ap overlay f orm, as requesced in the NRC memo of November 29, 1979, which =andated this study. 3cth these forns include best and worst case estica:es for the varicus Estimates for hospitals and nursing heces ve:e determined separately sectors. '"he sectors to and are presented both in Table II and on Figures 4a and ab. vhich the estimates apply are sel' explanar.ory. l I ~ 9

TABLEI MAINE YANKEE, EPZ SECTOR EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES lHOURS) 1 SECTOR i 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 O 10 _ CONDITION l.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7

1. 8 2.0 2.9 3.8 GOOD WEATHER /

YEAR ROUND POP. l. 1. .O 2.0 2.1 2.4

7. 4 4.5 BAD WEATHER /

2 SUMMER POP. 1 NOTEe STUDY ASSUMES INNEH SECTOHG ARE GIMULTANEOUSLY EVACU ATED. i e, SECTOH 4 SECTOR u TIMEG-TIMEG INCLUDES SECTORl i Il 4Ct.UDEG GECTOHG 4 AND 1.

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6 A2?ENDIX C SPECI.C FACILITIIS 3ACKGRCUND INFC?2dATION 3ath Me=orial Hospital Phone No.: 443-5524 23 Winship St. 3ath arry Clark, Assistant Controller "- r Contac-- 3eds: 92 Mobilization Esti= ate: 1 1/2 - 2 h:s St. Andrew's Hospital Phone No.: 633-2121 Scothbay Ha:bor

Contact:

Mr. Edward 3. Swett, Administ stor . 3eds: 32 Mobilization Estimate: 1 1/2 - 2 hrs If surgery, 4 hrs Lincoln Ecce for the Aged Phone No.: 563-3350 Riser Road Newcastle

Contact:

Mrs. Helen DiMarco, Administrator 3eds: 24 Mobilization Isti= ate: 20-25 minutes 3ath Nursing Ho=e Phone No.: 443-9772 Winship Stree 3ath

Contact:

Mrs. Sharp, Administrator 3eds: 72 Mobilization Isti= ate: 15 minutes

Paige's Rest Home Phone No.: 633-3996 3eath Road 3cothbay

Contact:

Ms. Jeannette Paige 3eds: 11 Mobilization Estimate: 1 - 1 1/2 hrs Hillhouse Convalescent Home Phone No.: 443-6301 Wiskeag Road North 3ath

Contact:

Mr. John Voorhees, President 3eds: 41 Mobilisation Estimate: 1/2 hr Plant Memorial Home Phone No.: 443-2244 1 Washington Street 3ath

Contact:

Mrs. Crocker, Administrator Mr. William Hacey Beds: 27 Mobili:stion Estimate: 15-45 minutes Miles Me=orial Hospital Phone No.: 563-3134 3ristol Road Damariscotta

Contact:

Ms. Janet Corbett, Administrator Beds: 36 Mobiliration Estimate: I hr Com=ent: They are presently remodeling to accommodate 40 nursing home beds by next year. i

  • f r :,.,.

= APPENDIX D umiED stares [ h f( j NUCLEAR REGULATCRY COMMISSION wasec tov : c.20sss j tQ.. ! s.,M Y / ':uten e

23. 1979 ALL 7CnER REACTOR _ICEt4 SEES Gentlemen:

l Inis le::er, anicn is Deing sent : all licensees autneri:ac :: :: erne a l nuclear ocwer reactor and to all acplicants for a" license to operate a p:wer reac:cr (F5AR cocke:ec), is a recuest for information regarcing estimnes for evacuation of varicus areas arounc nuclear pcwer reac rs. The re:;ues ec information is in accition to that recuestec cy :ne Oc ccer 10, 1979 le::er to all ;cwer reactor licensees from Darrell G. Eisennut, Acting Director, Division of Oceratinc Reactors, Of fice of 14uclear F.eac:cr Regulation. ( eitncugn evacuation time estimates are expectec ;c ce prepareo in ne ccurse of tne upgracing of the state of emergency preparedness as specifisc in the Oct0cer 10, 1979 letter, su mission of these estimates to :ne !4RC is ceing requested on an accelerated time scale so that the NRC can icentify those instances in wnich unusual evacuation constraints exist anc scecial planning measures snculd be consicered. !n scme cases cf extreme cifficulty wnere a iarge popuiatton is at risk, special f acility mocificatiens may alsc 0'e appropriate. The recuestec information will also enaDie the NRC to Se res:ensive to a recc=encation from :ne Environment, Energy anc Natural Rescurces 5ucc:=ittee of tne Meuse C:=ittee On Governmen: Operations. Tne information requestec in the enclosure shcuic ce su:mittec no later nan January 31, 1980. The Oct:cer 10, 1979 letter incicatec :na: efforts to cevelcp a mccel pian were continuing. It new ap; ears tna: :ne mccel :lan aill no: 5-a ccmoletec on a scnecule wnicn will se of use in cevelening upgraced plans for :ne recuestec January 1,1980 sucmittal. The upgraced pian cevelcpmen; snculd

nerefore proceed on a si'te-specific casis.

e Si ncerely, ,,v, f hf)

  1. ^~

^ UU crian K. Grimes, Di rectcr Emergency ?reparecness Task Grcup 'egul ation

Enclosure:

3.e;uest for Evacu DUPLICATE DOCUMENT E s timates Entire document previously Oc.ienclosure; entered into system under: h @ @ //[p h h h h ANO No. of pages: - -. -... -,. -. -}}

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