ML19351D632

Forwards Evacuation Time Estimates,Per 800131 Commitment Responding to Commission 791129 Request

ML19351D632
Person / Time
Site:	Fort Calhoun
Issue date:	10/02/1980
From:	William Jones OMAHA PUBLIC POWER DISTRICT
To:	Grimes B Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUDOCS 8010140337
Download: ML19351D632 (16)

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Omaha Public Power District 1623 MARNEY

> OMAHA. NE8RASMA 68102 i TELEPHONE S36 4000 AREA CODE 402 October 2, 1980 i

i Mr. Brian R. Grimes, Director Emergency Preparedness Task Group Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission i

Washington, D.C.

20555

Reference:

Docket No. 50-285

}

Dear Mr. Grimes:

The Omaha Public Power District received a letter from the Com-1 mission, dated Noverrber 29, 1979, requesting that the District provide i

time estimates for evacuating the areas around the Fort Calhoun Station.

The District responded to this request by letter, dated January 31, 1980, comitting to providing the requested estimates when received from the responsible state officials. Enclosure 1 to this letter provides the best estimates of the District based upon the information provided i

by the states. Enclosures 2 and 3 are copies of the most recent in-l formation from the responsible state agencies and are provided in support of the District's estimates.

Sincerely, i

?

l W. C. Jones Division Manager Production Operations WCJ/KJM/TLP:jmm Enclosures 3ON cc:

LeBoeuf, Lamb, Leiby & MacRae 1333 New Hampshire Avenue, N.W.

5 Washington, D.C.

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EtlCLOSURE 1 Estimate of Evacuation Times for the Fort Calhoun Station 1.0 Introduction In order to estimate the time needed to evacuate the area surround-ing Fort Calhoun, the following assumptions have been made:

(1) The evacuation process can be divioed into 4 specific steps:

(a) Receipt of the evacuation order.

(b) Validation of the order.

(c)

Response to the evacuation order.

(d) Actual travel out of the affected ::one.

(2) The evacuation order represents the first alert to the general population. This assumption is important because it results in the worst time estimates (i.e., much of the individual's planning and preparation for evacuation is done well before the evacuation order is issued if he has received ample noti-fication of the accident as it progresscd',-

(3) The populace surrounding Fort Calhoun is trained on what actions are required by them in response to an evacuation order.

(4) Weather conditions are such that an orderly evacuation is not significantly hindered.

For exampie, a severe snow storm could make travel virtually impossible; therefore, the evacu-ation would be postponed in lieu of alternate protective measures.

The time estimate for each step of the evacuation process is provided below. A final total time estimate is also derived from these estimates.

2.0 Alerting the Populace Present Commission guidelines have established a 15 minute criteria for alerting 100% of the population located within a 10 mile circle surrounding the plant.

It is assun.ed that this criteric will be met.

Therefore, within 15 minutes of the decision to evacuate, the alert will be received by the general populace within 10 miles of the plant.

3.0 Validation of Evacuation Order Once an individual is alerted, that person will follow previously posted instructions to tune to Emergency Broadcast Stations and/or respond to prepared messages on the emergency warning radios.

It is

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2-1 3.0 Validation of Evacuation Order (Continued) i anticipated that it could take some time for individuals to receive the j

actual evacuation order, since the area around Fort Calhoun is mainly agricultural and many of the people may not have immediate access to radios or televisions. An estimate of 10 minutes is allowed for 90% of 1

the population to actually receive the evacuation order by EBS or other

]

sources. For the other 10% of the population to gain access to com-1 munications, I hour is estimated.

i The assumption that the general populace is trained in what actions i

to take in response to the evacuation order results in an immediate response to the order. Without the prior training, it is difficult to j

predict what the public response would be.

4.0 Response to the Order 2

Once the public has received a valid evacuation order, there are l

still expected delays before actually commencing travel from the af-t fected areas. Section 3 of Enclosure 2 details some of the factors I

affecting response times.

In Enclosure 3, an estimate of 60 minutes is j

allowed for response to the order. The District believes that 60 i

minutes is not conservative. A more conservative estimate of 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> is i

allowed for response for 90". of the people. Again, because the area j

around Fort Calhoun is agricultural, the preparations for evacuation could be quite lengthy for some of the population. Also to be factored t

in is the individuals who require special transportation (see 3.b of

. ). Using all the resources available in Omaha and the local area, a minimum of 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> is predicted for evacuation of these in-dividuals.

r 5.0 Travel Time i

i

indicates a worst case travel time of 56 minutes. indicates a worst case of 40 minutes.

These estimates are considered valid for all but the most severe weather conditions.

6.0 Summary l

A c:r.servative estimate for evacuation of at least 90% of the i

population is 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 11 minutes, as summarized below:

I Alert received 15 minutes i

Evacuation order validated 60 minutes j

(100%)

l Response to order (90%)

120 minutes Travel outside 10 mile zone 56 minutes Total time 251 minutes = 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 11 minutes It should be noted that much of this estimate is subjective.

However, historical data on more localized evacuations indicate that an evacuation time of 2 to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> is possible and this is with no prior planning or education of the public.

Therefore, the District believes the 4 hour4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> time period for evacuation is conservative, assuming proper planning and education of the population is instituted.

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ENCLOSURE 2 Comments en NRC letter of 20 Nov 197C Evacuatien Time Es:imates Fort Cainoun Nuclear Sta:icn 1.

Definitien of Evacuation Areas under Discussion There are five areas en the Nebraska side of the Missouri that are definable in accordance with the instruc fons in the NRC letter (See attached Maps).

Pcpulaticn figures are based on the 1970 Census Data updated to 1979 by changes es timated in University of Nebraska Studies.

Note that Areas 3 and 5 are actually 224 sectors in order to include all :he Nebraska residents in these five areas.

Vehicle estimates are based on a fac:cr of an average 3 04 persons in housenolds with vehicles as established in the 1970 Census. 'Persens wither:

vehicle figures are also derivec fecm the updated 1970 census.

Institution-alired (group quarters) figures are ac:ual ccunts.

Area 1 (180 sector out to 2 miles) 187 TOTAL Population Estimated Vehicles 62 Area 2 (Area 1 plus Sectors N, P, q and R out to 5 Miles)

TOTAL Population

- 7332 Estimated Vehicles 2077 Persens institutionali:ed -

262 Persons w/o Vehicles 269 Area 3 (Area 1 plus See:crs G. H, J, K, L S M out to 5 Miles) 892 TOTAL Population 274 Estimated Vehicles Persons Institutionalized O

Persons w/o Vehicles 67 Area 4 (Area 1 plus Sectors N, P, q & R out to 10 Miles)

TOTAL Pcpulation

- 8317 Estimated Vehicles

- 2374 262 Persons Institutionalized 903 Persons w/o Vehicles Area 5 (Area 1 plus sec: ors G, H, J, K, L & M cut to 10 Miles)

TOTAL Peculation

- 6370 1985 Estimated Vehicles Persens Institutionali:ed -

9 Persons w/o Vehicles 389 Additional Demographic fac: ors that shculd be considered in an indecth study are:

Where people work vs. where they live (acded reaction time)

School Population Distribution (returning children to homes or picking them up)

Pcoulation Distribution - Jay vs. Night

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2.

Travel time estimates I

Estinates are based on a standard Relocation planning factor of highway capabilities to handle 1,000 cars / hour per lane of traffic.

Tra f fic l

movement esticated at an average of 20 miles / hour.

Time estimates are i

frem Oeparture frem Residence to clear all vehicles from the risk area 4

and do no: consider reception area traffic ficw.

Single Lane traffic l

ficw only is considered - clear reads - no adverse WX.

l Travel Time Oniv I

Area 1 (furthest Travel - 3 miles) 10 minutes i

1 Area 2 (furthes: Trave' - 5 miles) 42 minutes Travel - 6 miles)

Area 3 (furthes:

20 minutes Area 4 (furthes: Travel -10 miles) 56 minutes i

Area 5 (furthest Travel -11 miles) 40 minutes f

1

(* Limiting Factor - Road Capacity) 1 i

Additional factors that should be considered in an in-depth study are:

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- Traffic ficw cn Gravel Roads within each sector and limitations 4

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- Pcssible choke point problems 4

- Time needed to establish One-Way Traffic if desired

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- Providing for ingress of Emergency Vehicles j

- Time to establish Traffic Control and Barricades as needed 1

3 REACTION Time This shculd be defined as that time required after a citizen has been notified until he is ready to star: travel.

There are a number of factors that could impact on this area making valid time estimates extremely j

di f ficult and probably subjective at best.

Scme areas where analysis i

could provide some time definitien are:

a)

General Public j

- Time to get children home frca schools or arrange pick-up

- Tire to return home from work

- Time to pack necessary belongings

- Public Transoortation (for those with no ahicle) f, 3

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Response time of buses Getting drivers Travel to assembly areas Lcading Time required to walk to assemb 'y areas or to get transported to assembly areas b) institutions i

l Time to prepare patients for Travel i

Time required to obtain and use Special Transportation l

Not i fy ing/Loca t ing Suses/ Squads Comment: Total Requirements in Areas 2 and 4 are 4

In tensive Care Patients Ambulance Patients

- 61 Wheelchai r Patients

- 62 Ambulatory Patients

- 94 Vehicle Trip Requirements Tyce Trios Mobile Intensive Care Units 2

Ambulance 20 Wheel Chair Van 20 Converted Wheelchair Bus 1

Regular Sus 3

Comment: Most Rescurces Located in Omaha Travel Time Estimated 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> 15 min (at 20 mph)

- How many multiple Trips requi red (squads)?

- Time to round up Staff Time to prepare receptien area Intensive Care Problems 4.

Adverse weather considerations Whatever estimates are' established for normal conditions must be completely reevaluated for adverse weat her condi tiens. Worst case is probably snew storm precluding most travel.

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Scecial Recreatien Area Censideratiens Most of DeSoto Send Area accessible only frem the 10VA side of the Missoerl.

Park population shculd be considered in IOWA estimates.

6.

Historical Ca:a There are only two occurrences in Nebraska in recent years that were of significant size to provide any insight into evacuation timing, a.

Battle Creek, Nebraska - 27 November 1977 700 persons were evacuated frem.Sattle Creek during nighttime hoors T

because of a LPG spill. The incident cccurred at 2140 and some evacuation in the near vicinity was started shortly after arrival of Smergency eculpment.

The decision to evacuate the enti re town was made at 0230 on the 28th and of the remaining 500 residents approximately 75 were evacua:ed by 0420 with 100 % evacuation completed sometime before 0750.

b.

Src..nson/ Sidney '- 2 April 1978 A spill incident occurred at 0707 and evacuaticn of 500 residents of Brownsen star:ed shcr:ly thereaf ter with ccmoletion around 0845 At 08L5 evacuation of about 1,000 residents of Sidney began with completion about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> later.

It should be unders: cod that these two incidents were extremely localized and :ha: residents did not have to be moved very far to clear the affected area.

They do serve as indicators that evacuations of Limited numbers of people from small affected areas are achievable within a reasonable time frame.

7 Confirmation Svstems Systems or methods for confirming the evacuation of residents have not been developed for t h e Cocper Area.

Local Law Enforcement officials should be censulted for this determination.

Some of the things that should be discussed are:

a.

Develop possible systems

- Handkerchief /Whi te cloth en Mail Sox

- Check off system at traffic control points b.

Time involved to complete confirmation Resources available

- Travel time to visually sight all residences

p-8.

Nctification Time in Excess of 15 Minutes The capacility does not new exist to notify all residents in 15 minutes.

A great deal of work and possibly the expenditures of considarable funds will be necessary before this requirement could possibly be met.

Therefore, a response to the 20 November letter must address notification timing.

Scme of the factors that would require analysis are:

a.

Time to advise Local Government b.

Media j

- Time to develcp precise message

- Time to stations - ESS

- Alring time

- Percentage of coverage

- Reliability factors c.

VX Radio

- Percentage of coverage

- Times - Decision -- Noti fication -- Airing d.

Sirens

- Percentage of coverage

- Decision -- Activation

- Oces activation mean turn en Radio /TV?

- Does activation mean immediate acticn e.

Vehicle Sirens /PA

- Percentage of coverage

- Resources

- Time to make assignments

- Time to issue dosimeters

- Time to cover required area

- Ocor to door knccking time f.

Telechene (LPZ cniv)

Develop message

- Place phone call Rescurces for calling s

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- Time per call C.

Once the analysis is cceplete, a package must be put together.

The best way is probably to develcp critical action path analysis to arrive at final times.

- Put together chart showing time vs. percentage of populatien remaining in existing risk area Develop map with cserlay displaying same data

- Ceccese background dccument

6-

- P.ethodology

- Assumptions

- Factors, etc.

Obtain and dccument feelings of local officials as to time estimates Consider sheltering alternatives for larger ::cquiation areas if necessary (Blair) l I

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