ML19345C254
| ML19345C254 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Bailly |
| Issue date: | 06/30/1980 |
| From: | Bancroft J, Cosby J, Sheppard W WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8012040238 | |
| Download: ML19345C254 (58) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:.__ y.3 VOLUME 11 : AN INDE?E \ DE N~~ ASSESS ME N-~ OF EVACUATIO\ TluES l FOR B Al;_ _Y
. \ L C _ EAR DOWER P _A:\ T Prepared for.
FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY PERSONAL PatyACY INFop;/Arrog DELETED 13 Accoppg ;cy n,ypg n,s FKEEDOM DE ItirotagAT103 ACT l l WeYdett $mi/A an</ <J$ucclale$ JUNE,1980 r, Sono 49 g g 1 J
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t-p- . ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The ' independent . assessment of the evacuation times contained
'in this ' report was perforred under the technical direction of John C. Cosby. Mr. William V. Sheppard, Vice President, was the Principal-in-Charge of the Project. The principal contributors to the individual volumes of the report were:
Volume I - Program Recort - John C. Cosby Volume II - Sailly - James R. Bancro f t Volume III - Beaver Valley - Richard A. Day Volume IV - Enrico Fermi - Elbert L. Waters Volume V - Lime rick - George S. Coulter, Jr. 4 Volume VI - Maine Yankee - Robe rt P. Jurasin Volume VII - Midland - James R. Sancrof t and Elbert L. Waters l i Volum2 VIII - Millstone - Frank LaMagna Volume IX- - Shoreham - H. De an B rowner Volume X .Three Mile Island - Welbourne E. Thompson All reports were revised and edited by John C. Cosby and H . De an B rowne r. All of the above personnel are permanent employees - of Wilbur Smith and Associates . I b - J
' TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUCTION 1 Evacuation Time Assessment' Versus Evacuation Plan 2 General Assumptions 4 Description of the Site 6 General Regional Characteristics 8 Support . Organizations 11 AREA CHARACTERISTICS 14 Topography 14 Meteorology 14 Zone Cencept 17 Derography 19 CONCEPT OF EVACUATIO ! 32 Notification of Evacuation 32 Public Response Time 33 Evacuation Network 35 Traffic Centrol Strategies 47 Special Transportation Requirements 47 Lake Michigan ' 48 Sector Evacuation 48 EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT 49 Normal = Weekday. 49 Nighttime 49 Summe rtime 52 Adverse Weather 52
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1 LIST OF ILLUSTRATICNS FIGURE FOLLOWS NO. PAGE 1 Study Site Location 7 2 Special- Problem' Areas, Upper Right Quadrant 17 3 Special Problem Areas , Lower Right Quadrant 17 4 Special Problem Areas, Lcwer Lef t Quadrant 17 5- Evacuation Network, Upper Right Quadrant 35 6~ Evacuation Network, Lower Right Quadrant 35
- 7. Evacuation Network, Lcwer Lef t Quadrant 35 t
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LIST OF TABULATIONS TAB LE NO. PAGE l' ' Population By Sub enes 20
'2 Public and Private Schools 23 3 Nursing Homes 27 4- - Criminal Detention Centers 28 4
5 Recreational Facilities 29 ' 6 Major Employers 31 7 Network Description- -36 9 -Vehicles en Each Link, Normal Weekday. 42 1 9 . Evacuation Route, Link Node Description 44 By Centroid 10 Evacuation Times by Centroid 150 1 i 4 t
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L INTRODUCTION 4 , An independent Jassesscent of evacuation times around nine nuclear power plant sites was made for the - Federal Emergency Management Agency. The results of this three-month study are - contained in ten volumes, as folicws: Volume I - Program Report - Evacuation Tire Assessment of Nine ~ Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Planning Zones '(EPZ 's) Volure II - Bailly Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Tire Assessment Volume.III - Beaver Valley Nuclear Pcwer. Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume IV - Enrico ' Fermi Nuclear Pcwer- Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume V - Limerick Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation
- Tire Asse ssment Volume VI - Maine Yankee Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuaticn Time ssessment Volume VII - Midland Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume VIII - Millstone Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volure IX -
Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time
- Assessment Volure X -
Three Mile ' Island Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment In addition, an Executive Summary is also available. w ,, , - - . -
. 4 This volume contains the evacuation times assessment for Bailey Nuclear Power Plant. The evaluation of four scenarios and the discussion of evacuation of special problem areas are included. The scenarios evaluated are those expected when evacuaticn takes place at night (the optimum time from the stand-point of evacuation time), during a normal work de.y, during bad weather (the worst case condition), and the evacuation with summertime transient population.
Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan The assessment employs available demographic data and trans-portaticn facility information to predict the public response s ti=e to an evacuation warning on the assumption that such a warn-ing is made within 15 minutes of an en-site nuclear incident warranting such emergency action. The assessmen t must provide for estimates of public respense time .to these warnings , assembly of family and other groups, preparation for departure , travel time on the network including consideration of capacity. limitations on the network possibly fo rming queues which add ' to delays , and clearance of the 10-mile radius around' the site . It must consider the evacuation of special problem areas and groups. These would include schools, nurseries , nursing and retirement homes, hospitals, penal facilities, beaches and recreational areas, and other activities which may provide periodic or seasonal concentrations cf people. Population groups without access to their cwn transportation or unable to provide the special-. transportation f acilities required for evacuation must be included in the evacuation time assessment. I l l 1 1
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Evacuation time. assessment methodology combines selected techniques of traffic management and plaaning, land use planning and operational analysis. Because some conditions prevailing
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during an evacuation are not well documented, modifications to seme established principles may be required to meet evacuation requirements . Assumptions may be required in lieu of well formu-lated ' relationships because of the highly specialized . problems being addressed. These assumptions must be founded on best pro-fessional judgement and/or extrapolation from existing knowledge. The assumptions must be specifically identified. The bases upon which the assumptions are founded should be appropriately dis-cussed. ' Evacuation time assessments contain basic methodology common to evacuation - plan development. However, the assessment is not an evacuation plan. The major distinction between the assessment and ~ a plan is the extent to which the elements have been coordi-nated with all participant agencies and jurisdictions. For example, the assessment may assume that a' specific traffic management element is established to optimize traffic operations at a specific . location along an evacuation network. The fe ssi-bility of such an element in the assessment would be based upcn established technical principles. However, the element wculd not be coordinated with specific law enforcement agencies to establish what agency would exercise the element control and management nor identify the type and number of persennel to be required. The study time allotted makes such coordination ic-possib le . - The' assessment must identify what is required for the evacuation time to be realized, and assume that such an element would:be implemented.
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i i General Assumptions In the assessment of evacuation times, certain general assumptions were mandatory. More important of these are summa-i rized as follows: ~
- 1. Emergency evacuation of the general public from the EPZ will be performed largely from the home by the family as a united group. This assumption is prefaced by the follcwing quote: I}
. . . people will not evacuate an area, regardless of the danger, if their family group is separated, unless they knew tact members of their f amily are safe , accounted for, and that arrangements have been made -for them to evacuate. " It was felt that this psychological pressure is so prevalent and strong that the above assumption appears to be justified. In addition, to assure that segments of fthe family are safe and accounted for would have required the establishment of shelter locations and the develop-ment of a shelter support plan. In view of the next assumption and due to the short time period of the study, this was not done.
- 2. Public use of shelters in previous mass evacuation exper-ience related to natural disasters appears to be a very small percentage of total evacuees. Examples cited in literature include:(2) "In a California flood, only 9,260 out of 50,000 persons evacuated registered in the 38 Red Cross shelters ; during Hurricane Carla, 75 percent of the evacuees went to other than public shelters; and during Hurricane Betsy, enly 20 percent requested assistance. Generally, shelter centers are used only if nothing else is available or if one cannot financially care for himself. " In this: evacuation time assessment study, it was (1) EVACUATION RISKS - AN EVALUATION , - U.S. Environmental Pro-tection Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, EPA-520/6 '
0 0 2 , June , 19 74 , p . 49. (2) Ibid., p. 52. j l 1
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as s ume d tha t - the p re domin an t tra f fic , af ter leaving the 10-mile
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I - EPZ,7 went ~ diverse routes rather. than to a shelter destination. Therefore, the evacuation . time assessment ended at the EPZ boundary. An analysis : of - route capacities 'and service leve'is of highway f acilities' beyond that b'oundary was made to assure that delays or problems were unlikely to occur.
- 3. Experience gained in a large range of evacuations indi-
' cates that private' vehicles (3) " . . . were the predominant mode for evacuation (more than 99 iarcent) . Population density ranged
- f rom approximately 15 ' persons :per square mile - to 20,000 persons per square mile. " It was assumed that this was applicable to this time assessment study. It was further assumed that persons without private' vehicle transportation would be provided, at
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I their telephone request, adequate transportation in high occu-pancy vehicles-(HOV's). The additional vehicle volumes on the network would 'therefore be small, could be affected, during the general public evacuation. time , and would not af fect the computed evacuation times of the general population. I' 4. It :has been observed that not all persons will evacuate i the EP Z . "In many cases, even when presented with a- grave -threat, people refuse to evacuate."I4I This source continues , "Results of this study indicate that approximately six percent of the total 1 population refused to evacuate. Other reports indicate this ! figure can run as - high- as 50 percent. There is no reason to believe that.because 'the disaster agent is radiation rather than I some otherf agent . . . will provide sufficient motivation to leave. Rather the opposite viewpoint should be taken--people will ~ hesitate to ' leave. " (5) It is believed that a majority of
.this hesitance is based on fear of exposing their property to looting and vandalism. Notwithstanding this evidence , this time assessment study assumed that all persons-evacuate.
(3)' Ibid.,:p. 52. l l(4) 2 bid'.,Lp.148. . (5) . Loc.~ cit.
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- 5. It has been assumed that the traffic network within the EPZ has been isolated so daat no through traffic is permitted to enter it within 15 minutes after the evacuation warning has been iss ue d.
- 6. Traffic management by appropriate law enforcement officers will be performed at selected intersections where evacuation traffic flow is given priority.
- 7. All persons in- the EPZ have been provided, in advance ,
sufficient information regarding the assigned evacuation route from their place of residence (referred to as the " centroid" in the report) .
- 8. It was assumed that the public response to an evacuation order can be defined as a combination of up to four categories of statistically distributed responses : receive warning, leave work, travel home, and evacuate home. It was assumed that these responses are time-distributed following a normal distribution cu rve . The details and applications of this assumption are more fully discussed later in this report.
Descriction of the Site Location - The site of the Bailly Generating Station Nuclear-1 is located on the shores of Lake Michigan in Porter County, Indiana, approximately 11 miles east of Gary and 12.5 miles south-
-west of Michigan City. The village of Dune Acres bounds the site to the east; the Bethlehem Steel Corporation at Burns Harbor is contiguous to the south and west site boundries; and Lake nichigan is to the north.
The center line of the reactor is at latitude 41 38' 30" and longitude 87 7' 30"; based _on the Universal Marcator Grid, it is in Zone 16 at 4,609,820 meters north and 489,670 meters east. r . . Licensee - The licensee for Bailly Nuclear-1 is the Northern Indiana Public Servics Company (NIPSCO). Two existing fossil fired power plants, Bailly Units 7 and 8, and one gas turbine peaking plant, Bailly 10, are located on the 350-acre NIPSCO site due east of . the Bailly Nuclear-1 reactor. Tvce o f P lan t -- The system at Bailly Nuclear, scheduled to go commercial in June ,19 87, is a boiling water reactor with a capacity of 644 megawatts electric. General Electric is the manuf acturer; Sargent & Lundy is the architect. Year Operating - The construction permit was issued on :4y 1,
-1974, and expired in September, 1979. In February , 19 70 , an application was filed to extend the construction perret; hearings regarding this are likely to begin in September, 2.980. Ccnstruc-tion is approximately one percent comple te .
Emercency Planning Area - A 10-mile radius surrounding a nuclear pcwer plant is recommended for the delineation of the Emergency Planning Zcne (EPZ). The 10-mile radius surrounding Bailly Nuclear-1 encompasses all, or portions of,10 townships i in two counties. The' EPZ is a theoretical boundary that is impractical to use in communicating effec".ively with the public. An Eme rgency Planning - Area was therefore developed using readily identifiable landmark's s uch as - rive rs , jurisdictional boundaries, major road-ways, and other well known topographical features as the boundary. Within the EPZ are planning zenes which generally conform to Townships and Corporate scundaries. Figure 1 depicts the i Emergency Planning Area, the 10-mile EPZ , and the Townships and Corporate Boundaries , i
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0 sT s . STUDY SITE LOCATION EVACU ATION. TIME ASSESSMENT BAILLY l , 4.&. r- 4..s .v r4 FIGUAE 1 l l I ) l l
.In Lake County, the Emergency Planning Area -includes the entire L Cities of Lake Station and New Chicago. The City of Gary l' east of Interstate 65 and Gary Harbor is included, as is the = City of Hobart north of Ridge Road and east of Lake Park Avenue.
The Townships of Portage, West Chester, Liberty, and Pine in Porter County are entirely included in the Emergency. Planning Area. Union and Center Tcwnships north of 425 North Road, Jackson Township west of 500 East Road and north of U.S. Highway-
'6, and Washington Township north of 500 North Road and west of 400 East ' Road are also included.
) General Recional Characteristics The- area around the site, particularly the area to the west, is heavily industrialized. The Bethlehem Steel Corporation ~, . Pu:ns Harbor complex, borders the site on the western and' southern pe rimete r. Lake County, five miles west of the site , includes Gary, Hammond , and East Chicago, all of which are centers of heavy industry, particularly. the steel manufacturing industry. Accroximately -43 percent of the total work force in Lake County is connected with the iron and steel industry located in the area ' (other major industries include centract construction, metal f abrication, and petroleum and coal products) . In Porter County, approximately 42 percent of the total work force is involved with manufacturing, and of this work force , three quarters are ' employed at the Bethlehem S teel complex adja-
; cent to the site.
1 Approximately 55 percent of Lake County and 70 percent of Porter County are utilized for agriculture. This is in contrast to a statewide average of 77.5 . percent. The agricultural areas in both counties are located primarily south of a line drawn fromLCrown Point to Valparaiso. Corn, soybeans , and wheat are i a N
4 L the main M erops with little livestock production other than
- poultry.
The Indiana Dunes State Park, consisting of approximately 8,000 ' acres of lakeshore, bogs, and marshes, is located east of the - site '. ' In _ addition, the National Park Service administers the -National. Lakeshore Park which is composed of 12,500 acres and125 edles of shoreline. On Lake ydchigan, anglers frequently fish 'from boats anchored near the end of the Bailly circulating j water discharge flune. Major Population Centers - The 1985 residential pcpulation within the 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone is estimated to be 127,870. The _ nearest. town to the site is Dune Acres , with a 1985
, projected population of .482.- Porter County is currently experi-4-
j- encing a net increase in population at _ ds.e expense of the Calumet Region in Lake County. Five L eowns , including Dune. Acres , lie within a five-mile radius o f the' site . Projected '19 85 populations for the remaining four are as folicws : Surns Harbor, 2,000 ; Chesterton, 8,549; ogden Dunes , 1,592; and Porter, 3,830. An additional seven cities and' towns are within or partially within the next 'five o miles from the site. The estimated 19 85 populations for these" $ population centers are: Beverly Shores , 1,24 7 ; Gary , 14 5,6 9 6 ; Hobart, 25,595 ; Lake Station , 17,352; New' Chicago, 2,454; Portage, . 31,608; and Town of Pines, 1,348. . i
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The site is located 1n an area which is heavily industrialized - , and- therefore has concentrated commercial populations. -The Gary-Hammond-East Chicago. industrial area is located to the west of-
- the site . and constitutes the main center of manufacturing activity in the State 'of Indiana. LIn the immediate area ' surrounding the
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site,- there are several11arge-scale manufacturing concerns-, $ including; the - Be thlehem _ S teel Corporation whi'ch borders the site
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on the western and southern boundaries. Approximately 6,000 are employed at the steel plant, with 2,000 at hand for any given shift. The Indiana Dunes State Park and National- Lakeshore Park is a large generator of recreational population during the months between May and September. Average daily attendance for weekdays and weekends during this time is 25,000 and 35,000, re spe ctively . Holidays attract a daily attendance of approximately 40,000. Plant Location . Figure 1 shows the location of the plant in relation to the various county and local jurisdictions. With the 10-mile radius, all or a portion of 20 municipalities are in two countias. Of the 20 municipalities , 12 are cities or towns , and the remaining eight are townships. Major Transportation Facilities - Four interstate highways serve the ' area within the 10-mile radius. Interstate Routes 80, 90, and 94 serve the EPZ in an east-west di re ction . Inte rstate 80/90 is the Indiana Toll Road connecting Chicago and northwestern Ohio; it has only two access points within the EPZ. Inte rs tate 94 connects Chicago with southwestern Michigan. Interstate 65 serves the western portion of the EPZ in a north-south direction in Lake County. It connects Gary and Indianapolis and terminates at the Toll Road. Several Federal highways serve the EPZ as major links in the ' evacuation network. Two o f the se , U. S . Highways 12 and 20, serva
- the northern portion of the EPZ in an east-west direction travel-ing roughly- parallel to each other through Porter County before intersecting in Lake County. U.S. 20 is a four-lane highway with unlimited access. In the southern portion of the EPZ , U.S.
Highway 6 also serves in an east-west direction. Bo th U. S . 6 and 12 are two-lane facilities. i e
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State-highways serve as the major north-south links in the_ network. _ Route 149 is due south of Bailly Nuclear-1 and nearly
. bisects the EPZ._ It is basically a two-lane facil'ity, but is four-lanes north of I-94. Capital-improvement plans call for State Route 49, in eastern Porter County, to be widened to four-lanes by 1982. State Routes 51 and 130 are both two-lane facilitiesEin the southwest portion of the.EPZ.
Support Organizations In case of emergency, close coordination between-federal, state,-and local agencies is imperative.to provide the respon-sibility necessary to insure implementation of an evacuation plan. Local-support. organizations expected to coordinate activities in the Bailly Nuclear-1 include:
- 1. Porter County Department of Civil Preparedness and affiliated Civil Defense Units:
- a. Porter County
- b. South Haven
- c. . City of Portage
- 2. Lake County Department of Civil Preparedness and affiliated Civil Defense Units:
- a. City of Gary
- b. City of Lake' Station 1: . City of New Chicago 4
- d. City of Hobart
- e. City of Crown Point
- f. City of East Chicago 1
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-g. City of Hamnond -
- h. City _of Highland
- i. City of Griffith
- j. City of Cedar Lake
- k. Tri-Creek
- 1. Lake Ridge
- 3. Additional Civil' Preparedness Units within 50-mile radius including the following counties:
- a. Jasper County
- b. La Porte County
- c. Marshall County
- d. Newton County
- e. Pulaski County
- f. St. Joseph County
- g. Starke County
- 4. Porter and Lake County Commissioners
$ 5. Porter and Lake County Sheriffs
- 6. Porter and Lake County Health Departments
- 7. Local Municipalities, such as police, fire, and other officials necessary to carry out control of the plan.
In . additior., the State of Indiana would provide supplemental support at the request of local officials. State support organi-
- ations include:
- 1. Police
- 2. Highway Department
- 3. Board of Health.
- 4. Department of Natural Resources
- 5. Public Service. Commission
- 6. Department of Public Instruction
- 7. Emergency Medical Services
- 8. Red Cross
- 9. National Guard
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The following federal organizations would also be expected to provide support:
- l. Nuclear Regulatory. Commission
- 2. Federal Emergency Management Agency Summary of Emergency Planning to Date Licensee Evacuation Plan - The Northern Indiana Public Service Company has contracted with ETA Engineering, Inc., to develop an evacuation plan for the Bailly Nuclear-1 EPZ. Lester B. Knight and Associates, Inc., has been signed as a subcontractor-for this
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4 document. -The evacuation plan is' scheduled to be published in September 1980. Other Evacuation Plans --- The Indiana State Department of Civil Preparedness has developed an evacuation plan for Bailly Nuclear-1 which-is scheduled for review by NRC and FEMA in July.
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1980. This plan relocates populations within the 10-mile EPZ to l areas between 15 and 50 miles from the Bailly site. N 1
4 g ,. i' 4 1 AREA. CHARACTERISTICS
-Togography-The Bailly' Nuclear-lisite is situated in the' extreme northern edge : of: Porter County on the southern shore of Lake l ~
Michigan at almost its southernmost point. From the broad beach the terrain rises' irregularly southward about one-half
-mile to the highestEridge of-the wooded sand dunes 100 feet-or more above the Lake. .From'the. ridge it falls off more rapidly to the south to marshy lowlands adjacent to the New' York Central Railroad and U.S. Highway 12. Much of the country is wooded, with oak, pine, and cottonwood most prevalent.
Attesting :o the glacial origin of the dunes, here are to be found growing. side-by-side the bear berry, found elsewhere only-in the Arctic tundras, - and; the prickly pear cactus native to the southwestern United States. Meteorology i The plant site has a: continental type climate cnaracterized by cold ~ winters and . hot summers, but the climate is modified by Lake' Michigan which, in general, makes extremes of heat and cold more moderate than at inland areas. It is also in or near the tracks of the principal storm centers crossing the Middle West and-is: subject to frecuent rapid changes in weather brought i about byfconflicting air: masses- of polar and tropical origin. Lake influence on. temperature is most noticeable in the-
-spring.and fall. - Innspring, winds chill and retard the advance of'vadetation, while.in fall, water temperatures are relatively 4 'v*r-
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- warm well . into November and delay the occur:'ence of frost.
Temperatures of 90 0 F or above average 18 days per year. The average annual number of days with minimum temperatures of 00F or below is six. The prevailing wind direction for all months is from the south. The highest winds, however, have all been recorded from the sectors west through northeast. The reason for thir is partly due to uninterrupted travel of these winds over open water. Highest wind velocities most frequently ccme from summer thunder-squalls;-some have been severe. In summer there are also occasional periods of prolonged northerly winds, which, while unually not exceeding 20-30 miles / hour, build up rather high seas after a few hours n.aking dangerous conditions for water recreation. Waterspcuts have been observed offshore in Lake Michigan on several occasions. These have usually moved parallel to the shore line at a distance from one to ten miles. Although tornades have been observed within the-EPZ, the probability of one striking a point in the 1 grid square encompassing the site is 1.8 X 10-during any one yaar. The average annual precipitation is 35.71 inches at Ogden Dunes, with the greatest amount measured during the summer months. Intense rainfall will be produced by severe cyclonic storms and by thunderstorms. Return periods of extreme short-interval rainfall are: 3.0 inches / hour once every 100 years 4.6 inches / halt hcur Once every 100 years-
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o Freezing rain can -occur during the normally colder months of the year when rain falls through a very shallow layer of cold air from an: overlying warm layer and freezes upon contact _with the ground or other objects. _The earliest freezing rain storm has been observed in December, and-the latest in May. Unless intentionally removed, the mean duration of ice on utility lines is 34 hours. Return periods for freezing rain storms in the area which produce ice of various thickness are: 0.25 inches Once every year 0.50 inches Once every two years 0.75 inch or greater Once every three years Appreciable snowfalls normally occur from October to April with four months averaging 7 inches or more. Twenty-four hour snowfalls rarely deposit more than 12 inches. Snowfall, while important, is much less, ordinarily, than at places farther east, where a ccmbination of terrain and availability of lake moisture can produce some tremendous snows. The so-called
" snow belt" is roughly the area extending from near Michigan City and La Porte to South Bend and north to Benton Harbor, Michigan.
Days with light fog or haze are rather frequcnt, but heavy fog occurs on an average of only seven days a year. i
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Zone Concept In the event of a nuclear incident which would require evacuation, potential evacuees cannot be told to evacuate by compass direction. Therefore r easily identifiable physical boundaries, to which affected individuals can relate, must be established. Figures 2, 3, and 4 indicate these established planning zones, each of which has been assigned an alphabetical designation to facilitate discussion. Each planning =cne has from one to 11 centroids or subzones. The subzones are located so that large zones and heavy populated areas are subdivided to provide for even distribution of traffic over the roadway system. Population was divided in accordance with population data frem the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS) , the appearance of housing on United States Geological Survey Quad sheets, and field reconnaissance. These planning :ene designations with a description of their boundaries are as follows: Zone A - Zone A includes the City of Gary. The north boundary is the Lake Michigan shoreline; the east boundary is Porter County; the south boundary is the City of Lake Station; and the west boundary is roughly Interstate 65 and Gary Harbor. This ene has been divided into eight sub enes. Zone B - The City of Lake Station is Zone B. Zone boundaries are the corporate limits of Gary, New Chicago, and Hobart and the Porter County line. Four subzones have been designated. Zone C - The City of New Chicago utilizes Zone C. Bound-aries are formed by the corporate limits of Lake Station-and Hobart. 6 1
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l l LEGEND: S - SCHOOLS *n :::pn:2 *-- y NS - NURSERY SCHOOLS D H - HOSPIT ALS __A__. / AN - ADULT NUR$1NG HOMES QU ADR AN T INDE X
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Zone D -- The: City of'Hobart is Zone D. To the. north are (the Lake Station and~New Chicago. City Limits and east.is Porter. County; the Southern boundary follows Ridge Road and Lake Park Avenue; the western-boundary:follows. Interstate 65. -There are.four suhzones. Zone E - . Zone E is Portage Township in Porter. County. The Lake Michigan shoreline forms the northern boundaryr Westchester Township is to the east; Union Township.is to the south; and Lake County forms the west. boundary. Towns with Zone E include the City of Portage and Ogden Dunes. There are 11 subzones. Zone F - The northern, edge of Union Townsnip is Zone F. The northern boundary.is Portage Township;. east is Center Township; and west is Lake County. To the south, 425 North Road defines the southern extreme of the Emergency Planning Area and the southern limits of Zone F. There are two subzones. Zone G - Zone G is Center Township and includes the Bailly Nuclear-1 site. The northern boundary is Lake Michigan;-east is Pine Tcwnship; south are Jackson and. Liberty Townships; and west is Portage Town-ship. Towns in Zone G include' Dune Acres, Porter, Chesterton, and Burns Harbor. There are nine subzones-for resident. population. Zone H -
-Liberty. Township forms Zone H. The northern boundary is Westchester Township; east is Jack-
- son Township; south is Center Township; and
> west is Portage Township. There'are eight sub-Eodes. Zone J - The northern portion of. Center' Township and the northwestern corner of Washington Township form-Zone J.- . Liberty and Jackson Townships boundLthe zone to the north and Union Township is to the west.- The eastern and southern boundaries are formed by 425 North Road in' Center Township _and 500. North' Read and 400 East Road-'in Washington
.Tcwnship . t There are two subzones.
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Zone K - Pine Township is entirely included within the Emergency Planning Area. Zone K is bounded-to the north, east, south, and west by Lake Michigan, La-Porte County, Jackson Township, and Liberty Township, respectively. Towns included in this zone are the Town of Pines and Beverly Shores. There are six subzones.
' Zone L - Zone L includes ~all of Jackson Township except for four square miles in the southeast. North and west Zone L is bounded by Pine, Westchester, and Liberty Townships. The eastern boundary follows the La_Porte County line south to U.S. Highway 6, then west to 500 East Road,.and then south to Washington Township. The southern boundary is Washingten Township. There are three subzones.
Zone S - Zone S was designated to represent large, non-resident populations. Subzone S-1 was. reserved for Bethlehem Steel Corporatien at Burns Harbor. Subzone S-2 represents the Indiana Dunes State Park and National Lakeshore Park. Demcgraphy A need for accurate population projecticn is essential to the assessment of evacuation times. A design year of 1985 was selected as a realistic representation of the resident population at'the time Bailly Nuclear-1 becomes operational. Population data-was provided by the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Ccamission and are summarized by subzone in Table 1. The population projections reflect the number of people who would be requested to exit from a zone. Under: evacuation f conditions the-persons per vehicle can be expected to be between l 3 and 4 persons. Since the average family unit population in the Bailly area is approximately 3 and family units are expected to evacuate as a group, this lower figure was used during calculations. n
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~* v TABLE 1 POPULATION BY SUBZONES Sub one Population Population Center A-1 480 Gary
- A-2 600 Gary A-3 3565. Gary /Aetna A-4 1470 Gary / Miller A-5' 4850 Gary A-6 6035 Gary A-7 2425 Gary A-8 825 Gary B-1 2995 Lake Station B-2 5780 Lake Station B 2175 Lake Station B-4 3720 Lake Station C-1 2475 New Chicago
. D-1 5080 Hobart D-2 2835 Hobart
- D-3 1015 Hobart D-4 5080 Hobart E-1 2675 Portage Township E-2 1670 Ogden Dunes
- j. E-3 1815 Willow Creek / Portage Township E-4 4955 Crisman/ Portage TownsMip E-5 2375 Portage Township E-6 5790 Clayton/ City of Portage E-7 8830 City of Portage E-8 1425 McCool/ Portage Township E 850 Portage Township E-10 250 Portage Township E-ll 6890 South Haven F-1 220 Wheeler / Union Township F-2 805 Union Township G-1 1170 Dune Acres G-2 1560 Burns Harbor G-3 785 Burns Harbor G-4 440 Westchester Township /
Western Acres-
- . G-5 7565 Porter G-6 3750 Chesterton G-7 555 Westchester Township G-8 2970 Graham Woods / Wake Robin Fields /Bru= mitt Acres G-9 ' "'S Tremont/Furnessville/
Westchester Township
b TABLE 1 -(cont'd) Subzone Population Population Center H-1 325 Crocker/ Babcock H-2 1395- Liberty Township H-3 680 Liberty Township H-4 925 Liberty Township /Woodville H-5 6 '. 5 Liberty Township H-6 5L5 . Liberty Township H-7 -760 Liberty Township H 980 Northwood Park / Lake View J-l 695 Center Township J-2 1960' Hillcrest/Edgewater/ Blackhawk Beach / Center & Washington Townships K-1 450 Beverly Shores K-2 1060 Town of Pines K-3 a00 Pine Township r K-4 425 Pine Township K-5 445 Pine Township
'- 6 65 Pine Township L-1 670 Jackson Township L-2 85 Jackson Township L-3 925 Suman/Beverly Hill S-1 '2000 Bethlehem Steel Corp.
< S-2 40000 Indiana Dunes State Park
& National Lakeshore Park t
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c l 1: I There are a number of schools within the EPZ that'should be included'in;the. evacuation planning. In Lake County, there are a total.of 18 public schools and fcur-private schools. The number of primary and secondary students is. estimated at 10,650. The ' Porter County portion offthe EPZ contains 23 public schools and' , eight private schools with a total enrollment estimated at 16,900. j The location and names offthese schools within the 10-mile EPZ are shown on ' Figures 2 through 4 and Table 2. 7 A_ basic assumption of this evaluation is that school children i will be sent home from school and be evacuated with their families. In the event of a nuclear incident, immediate responsive actions on the part of school administrators and faculty would be required. Students would return. heme, as expeditiously as possible, by their.
- custcmary =cde of transportation.
! There is one nursing home, Fountain View. Place, within the ! :PZ in the City'of Portage. No hospitals are within 10 miles of t
i Sailly Nuclear-1; the nearest hospital services are in Gary.and ] Miciigan City. The nursing home is shown on Figure 4 and Table
- - 3.
I j Criminal' Detention-Centers are also special cases which - need to be studied further for evacuation purposes. Within the 10-mile EPZ, there are two such facilities.- Portage City Jail and Lake Station City Jail are both overnight holding facilities 3 with possible' prisoner capacities of 10. These facilities are
- shown on' Figure 4 and Table'4.
. Recreational areas'are also shown on-Figures 2 and 3 and
(- Table 5. . Within the EPZ there is one major lakeshore 'acility j which includes Indiana Dunes State Park and Indiana Dunes b National Lakeshore Park. The two parks combined total approx-2- t=ately 20,500 acres and provide facilities for camping,' picnicking, j -and' beach recreation. 'Juring a summer holiday approximately 40,000 people can be expected to visit-the parks. 1
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4 TABLE 2 PdBLIC AND~ PRIVATE SCHOOLS Map School School Identification Name District Grades Enrollment S-1 Wm. A. Wirt~ Gary Ccamunity 9-12. 1144 Sr. High Corp. S-2 Aetna Elementary Gary Ccmmunity K-6 885 S-3 Kennedy-King Gary Community 6-8 750 Middle S-4 Jacques-Marquette Gary Ccmmunity K-5 640 Elementary S-5 Nobel Elementary Gary Community K-5. 441 S-6 St. Mary of the Private K-8 265 Lake S-7 Thomas A. Edisen Lake Station 9-12 Sr. High Community 1120 Thomas A. Edison 7-8 Jr. High S-8 Ale:c. Hamilton Lake Station K-6 383 Elementary Community S-9 Virgil I. Bailey Lake Station K-6 272 Elementary Community S-10 Central' Elementary Lake Station K-6 176 Community S-ll Carl J. Polk Lake Station K-6 296 Elementary Community S-12 St. Francis Kavier Private N/A 100 S-13 River Forest Jr./ Hobart Twp. 7-12 963 Sr. High' Ccmmunity Corp. S-14 River Forest Ele- Hobart Twp. K-6 360
-mentary Community Corp.
. TABLE 2 (cont'd)
. Map S chool School Identification- Name Dis trict Grades Enrollment S-15 J. I.'Meister Hobart Twp. K-6 312 Clementary Community Corp. 5-16 Edgar J. Miller Merrillville K-6 501 Elementar, Community Corp. S-17 Hobart Jr. High City of Hobart 7-9 1065 S-18 Liberty Elementary City of Hobart K-6 372 S-19 St. Bridget Private Pre K- 390 8 S-20 Hobart Baptist Private K-6 100 Grade
.S-21 Columbus City of E. K-6 117 Elementary Chicago S-22 Portage High Portage Twp. 10-12 2259 S-23 Virgil I. Grisson Portage Twp. 6-9 1296 Middle S-24 Wallace Aylesworth Portage Twp. 6-9 820 '
Middle S-25 Wm. Fegley Middle Portage Twp. 6-9 779 S-26 Crisman Elementary Portage Twp. K-5 649 S-27 Central Elementary Portage Twp. K-5 474 .i S-28 . Ethel R. Jones Portage Twp. K-5 653 Elementary S-29 Grayton-Elementary Portage Twp. K-5 417 1 1 S-30 Rowena Kyle Portage Twp. K-5 591 Elementary S-31' Paul Saylor Portage Twp. K-5 616 Exchange 4
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O TABLE 2 ( con t ' d) Map School School Identification Name Dis trict Grades Enrollment S-32 South Haven Portage Twp. K-5 503 Elementary. 5-33 Geo. L. Myers Portage Twp. K-5 606 Elementary S-34 Grayton Covenant Private Pre- 35 Jr. Kindergarten School S-35 Portage Christian Private Pre K- 241 12 S-36 Nativity of Our Private K-8 257 Savior S-37 Brummutt Eleme- Duneland Corp. K-5 409 mentary S-38 Chesterten Sr. Duneland Corp. 9-12 1743 High S-39 Newton Yost Duneland Corp.- K-5 378 Elementary S-40 Bailly Elementary Duneland Corp. K-5 491 S-41 Westchester Middle Duneland Corp. 6-8 633 S-42 Liberty Middle Duneland Corp. 6-8 642 S-43 Liberty Elementary Duneland Corp. K-5 627 E-44 St. Patrick Private K-6 212 S-45 Fairhaven Private N/A N/A S-46 Pine Elementary Michican City K-6 268 Area Schools S-47 Wheeler Jr. & Sr. Union Twp. 7-12 464 High S-48 Johns Samantevich Union Twp. K-6 300 Elementary 1 4 e
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4 i TABLE 2 ( cont ' d) Map School School Identification Name Dis trict Grades Enrollment S-49 our' Lady of -Private N/A N/A
' victory Academy S-50 South Haven Private K-5 126 Christian S-51 Jackson Elementary Duneland Corp. K-5 289 S-52 Country Woods Private N/A N/A Nursery t
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TABLE 3 NURSING HOMES MAP FACILITY NA'4E IDENTIFICATION & LOCATION POPULATION N-1 Fountain View Place 126 3175 Lancer Street Portage, Indiana l l
j- . . - . i 1
- . TABLE 4 CRIMINAL DETENTION CENTERS MAP ' FACILITY NA!E IDENTIFICATI3N & LOCATEN CAPACITY 1
. J-l Portage City Jail 10 1 2693 Irving Street Portage, Indiana J-2 Lake Station City Jail 10 i 3629 Central Drive Lake Station, Indiana N 1 1 1 g k s 1 i
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TABLE 5 RECREATIONAL. FACILITIES ' COMBINED MAP FACILIT'l NAME DAILY IDENTIFICATION & LOCATION POPULATIONS $ P-1 Indiana 'Junes State Park 20,000-25,000 Porter. County Weekdays 35,000
) Weekends P-2 Indiana Dunes National 40,000 Lakeshore Park Holidays
. Porter County
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o 4-i 4 The Coast Guard estimates that between 300 and 500 boats will be on Lake Michigan'within the EPZ during the summer. Of
.these,-it is estimated that 60 percent would--be power boats and the remainder sailboats'or non-power _ boats.
~
There are two major employment centers within the EPZ. 1
- Bethlehem Steel 1 Corporation at Burns Harbor employs approximately 1
- 6,000 in three work shifts. Due'to the nature of the industry.
a total immediate shutdown of-the mill cannot be effectuated. Approximately'reven percent of each shift would necessarily be required to remain and operate the mill during an incident. A second major employer is Midwest Steel, west of Ogden Dunes. - Acproximately 1850 are employed at this finishing mill with 1100 on-site during the day shift. A total plant shutdern can be immediately effectuated. These facilities are shown on Figures 2, 3,.and 4, and Table 6. All of the above population centers require special plans for evacuation. The evacuation times in this assessment, however, will not be affected by these facilities.
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i TABLE 6 MAJOR' EMPLOYERS MAP _ FACILITY NAME- MAXIMUM IDENTIFICATION- & LOCATION SHIF* POPULATIO_N_ E-1 Bethlehem Steel Corporation 2,000
-Burns Harbor E-2 Midwest Steel 1,100 Division of National Steel Corp-Ogden Dunes 1
i I 4 e. i 5 l F
a . t i CONCEPT OF EVACUATION The concept of evacuation in this assessment of Bailly Nucle.Ar-1 evacuation times assumes that everyone in the ten-mile-radius will be evacuated outside of that ten-mile radius. There is no assessment of the time to evacuate within the two-or the five-mile radius. It is assumed that all people that live within the ten-mile radius will be evacuated along a specified route known to them. The evacuation time will include the time form notification until the last vehicle crosses the ten-mile radius. Notification of Evacuation There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation. One event is the direct notification of public agencies, schools, major employers, and other large population concentrations. The second event is the dissemination of tne evacuation warning to the general popula': ion. Both of these events must include instructions recarding the sectors to be evacuated. The first event is assumed to be accomplished by tele-phone form the Bailly Nuclear-1 Emergency Operating Center to the affected group. Ideally, the second event would be implemented by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning system by strens or horns, supplemented by instructions over selected radio and television broadcasting facilities. At this particular site, no advanced system of this type is in place. Therefore, the predominant mode of notification is by use of vehicles and helicopters with mounted loudspeakers. A specified message from these vehicles would indicate that an evact,ation had been recommended and that radio and television would provide additional information. Broadcasting stations
'Oi
. 4 must be provided with complete, accurate and current information.
They should have prior planning zone descriptions and repeat recc= mended routing information. They should have phone numbers people can call'should these people require special evacuation assistance'or' additional information. Public Response Time There can be up to four activities preceding the evacuation from the home which can be statistically distributed over time: (1) Receive warning, (2) Leave work, (3) Travel home, and (4) Evacuate home. Each of these response times may have dif ferent distributions, depending upon the pa:ticular scenario bieng assessed. Receipt of Notificatica - Receipt of notification is assumed to approach a normal distribution in time; therefore, the accumu-
- lated probability approaches an "S" curve. This distribution can be approximated by three straight lines. One line, passing.
thrcugh the 16 percent, 50 percent and 34 percent distributicas, represents two time increments. Cne straight line from mero to 16 percent represents one time increment. The third straight line from 34 to 100 percent also represents one time increment. It is assumed that the time increments are five minutes, so the total time for receipt of notification is 20 minutes. This distribution means that 16 percent will have been notified within the first five minutes, 50 percent will have been notified in ten minutes, 84 percent will have been notified in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will have been notified in 20 minutes. (See Volume I for more detail.) Departure From Place of Work - Departure from the place of work is assumed to approach a normal distribution curve in the same manner as with the receipt of notification. Distribution is approximated by_three straight lines and four five-minute time increments. The distribution assumes that 16 percent will depart from their place of work in five minutas, 50 percent will depart in ten minutes, 84 percent will depart in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will depart in 20 minutes. (See Volume I for more detail.) Travel From hork to Home - The time of travel to the home approaches normal distribution in time in the same manner as the two previous responses. Under normal conditions this distribution assumes that 16 percent will travel to home in five minutes, 50 percent in 10 minutes, 84 percent in 15 mi.tutes, and 100 percent will travel to home in 20 minutes. This distribution is expanded in certain scenarios, specifically that of the adverse weather scenario. (See Volume I for more detail. ) DepartuJa From Mcme - Dararture from home also approaches a normal distribution over time and the accumulaced probability approaches an!"S" curve. The distribution is approximated by three straight lines in the same manner as the above three responses. The activity is distributed over eight five-minute periods for a total of 40 minutes. The distribution indicates that e4 Jh t percent will depart from home in the first five minutes, 16 percent in' ten minutes, 33 percent in 15 minutes, 50 percent in 20 minutes,_67 percent in 25 minutes, 84 percent in 30 minutes, 92 percent in 35 minutes, and 100 percent will have departed home within 40 minutes. (See Volume I for further details. ) 1 . - Evacuation Network The evacuation network, as shown in Figures 5, 6, and 7, was selected based upon adjoining populations to be served, horizontal and vertical roadway alignments , roadway cross sections, and alternative routing possibilities. The system is composed of a variety of roadway types, including local access streets, collector roads, and major arterial f acilities. The evacuation routes were established manually and coded for computer evaluation. The computer analysis converts subzone population into vehicles and then, distributed over time, loads vehicles onto the evacuation network. Evacuation routing was chosen to result in minimum evacuation tir.ss for each subzone. In many instances, more than one subzone was evacuated by a commom roadway. Table 7 contains the network descriptions. The table con-tains two node numbers for each end of a given link, the distance between nodes-in miles, the assumed speed for that link, its total capacity in' vehicles per hour in the direction of evacuation, and the identity of the roadway. For example, the first link' in1 Table 7 is from Node 101 to Node 103, The distance is 0.69
=iles, the assigned speed is 35 miles per hour, the capacity is
- 1,500 vph, and.the roadway segment is on Lake Street. The values assigned to each link represent the best judgement of these factors considering roadway gecmetry, width, terrain and other factors.
Many of the evacuation zones are rather large and may have
. severai subzones. These subzones are associated with population centers and are located to provide for a logical evacuation of the zone.
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- I42 NooE AND NUMSER QuAcaaNf'NCEx L hV '
- EV ACU ATiON ROUTE ' # 3 WE3 EVACUATION NETWORK BAILLY Evacuation Time Assessment Study l h/ des } mein ed Assar e/re 91GURE 6
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-- e 8 ' # 3 EV ACU ATION ROUTE ulLES EVACUATION NETWORK BAILLY Evacuation Time Assessment Study haa ..i d no U nen*4e 9fGURE 7
TABLE 7 NETWORK DESCRIPTION
.MM % K 315T IFEE3 OAP ROADWAY IDENTITY 101 103 0.49 35.0 1!C0 Lake Street 102 103 0.37 -!5.0 1M0 US 12
- 03 :04 0.06 ' 35.0 -iMo Lake Street 04 ;05 0.81 M.0 3000 US 20 105 IM 0.oa M.0 3000 US 12/20
;04 301 0.19- !0.0 'IC00 US 12/20 107 105 0 17 15.0 1M0 US 12 109 - 302 0.20 I5.0 1M0 15 Avenue 109 110 0.45 15.0 1MO Central Avenue
!0 203 2.27 I .0 - iMO Central Avenue
- 11 214 0.43 15.0 !M0 . Michigan Street l 112 113 0.54 35.0 1M0 County Line Road i 1:3 114 0.52 40.0 1500 County Line Road l~ :14 115 0.74 50.0 1000 US 20 11: :16'0.09 50.0 !000 State Route 51 G6 117 0 !8 "0.0 IOC0 State Route 51
- 17 119 0.37 23.0 1*00 Ramp onto I-80/94 & US 6
'. ; 9 304 2.63 55.0 000 I-80/94 & US 6 119 100 0.67 35.0 1M0 US 12
- 0 1
- 1 0.27. 25.0 iM0 US 12 to State Route 249
- 1 :22 0 32 35.0. IMO State Route 49
- 22 123 0.;2 M0 100 Ra:p to I-94 13 : 3 2.47 '5. 0_ $000 I-94
- 4 nS 0.32 55.0 6000 I-80/94 & US 6 125 126 0.50 M.0 3000 US 20
;;6 127 0. 3 15.0 :30 State Route 249 127 ;76 0.:6 20.0 ;500 Ramp to I-94 , ::9 114 1.17 !0.0 1000 US 20
- :;9 ' 130 0.06 35.0 '1500 US 6/ State Route 51 130 ;95 0.:' 35.0 1*00 US 6/ State Route 51 131 215 1.10 35.0 1M0 37th Street 32 .:33 1.34 M.0 1MO State Route 30 133 310.0.6a 40.0 3000 County Line Road 124 115 0.55 !5.0 1500 Stone Avenue
'1 I' 134 1.86 40.0 120 County Line Road
;26 133 0.73 400- iMO County Line Road 137 -211 0.50 30.0 2000 500 West Road (N of US 6) 129 139 0.99 ' 40.0 190 500 West Road 139 140 :.17 40.0 120 600 N. Road to 550 W. Road 140 141 0.04 40.0 1500 550 W. Road 141 142 0.44 50.0 1*00 State Route 130 142 311 0.70 40.0 1'00 Jones Road /650 W. Road 143 144 0.99 30.0 1000 875 N. Road 144 145 1.71 '0.0 190 State Route 149 4
TABLE 7 (Cont'd) 20K W X DIST SPEED CAP ROADWAY IDENTITY 145 146 0.99 !0.0 1500 State Route 149 146 147 3.49 50.0 1500 State Route 149 147 312 1.17 50.0 1500 State Route 149 148 149 1,48 40.0 1!00 200 West Road
;49 1!C 2 21 40.0 1:00 200 West Road & 700 N. Road 1:0 . 1:1 1.00 40.0 15c0 175 West Road 1:1 1:2 0.75 40.0 1500 175 West Road 1:2 313 3.07 40.0 1500 500 N. Road & 150 4. Road 1:3 !!4 3.44 40.0 !!C0 Meridian Road
!!4 it: 0.99 4M 1500
. Meridian Road 155 314 1.14 40.0 1500 Meridian Road
!!6 157 1.!3 !O.0 3000 State Route 49
!!7 158 1.53 50.0 3000 State Route 49 158 159 0.:0 50.0 3000 State Route 49 157 315 0.25 50.0 3000 State Route 49 130 161 0.93 35.0 1500 Calumet Road 161 162 1.00 50.0 2000 State Route 49 152 :43 0.43 20.0 1500 Ramp to Toll Road (I-80) 163 164 1.33 55.0 4000 In Toll Road (I-80) 164 313 4 12 !!.0 4000 In Toll Road (I-80) 165 ;$6 2.63 40.0 1 00 400 E. Road
-146 316 0 37 50.0 1500 US 6 137 146 0.77 !0.0 1500 US 6
;38 317 :.05 40.0 1500 1200 N. Road 137 170 0.52 30.0 3000 US 20 170 171 1.01 !0.0 2000 US 20 171 172 0.76 50.0 3000 US 20 17: 173 0.33 20.0 ;!00 Ramp to I-94 173 219 3.39 !!.0 6000 I-94 174 :7 1.33 !!.O iOOO I-94 t'! 3:0 4.23 ::.0 do I-94 176 177 0 10 40.0 1500 200 W. Road 177 .179 0.35 !0.0 2000 State Route 49 179 174 0.30 20.0 1:00 Ramp to I-94 179 017 0.97 50 0 3000 US 20 190 151 0.33 !0.0 3000 US 20
!!! 132 2.46 50.0 2000 US 20 132 3:2 1.37 50.0 3000 US 20 133 ;io 0.78 40.0 !!00 007 0.50 !!00 Furnessville Road & Schoolhouse Road 134 40.0 1400 N. Road 196 222 0.20 50.0 1500 US 12-187 158 0.70 50.0 !!00 US 12 138 ;99 0.53 !O.0 1:00 US 12
- 39 190 0.30 50.0 1500 US 12 l
0- ' ,.. TABLE 7 (Cont'd) ANCE M DIST SPED CAP ROADWAY IDENTITY 190 :?1 3.08 50.0 1 00 US 12 191 172 .91 . M.0 120 US 12 192 323 0.89 M.0 1500 US 12 143 2:2 0.?6 M.0 .000 State Route 49 194 til 0.71 tc.0 3000 Statc Route 49 195 124 0 19 20 0 *M0 Ramp to I-80/I-94 (US 6) 196 1:3 2.;4 ::.0 W00 I-94 197 172 0.30 40.0 1 00 Verplank Drive
;99 :n 3.?: 30.0 X0 Willowcreek Road
;99 .37 !.00 30.0 2000 850 North Road 133 0.?4 dh0 1M0 200 100 W. Road (Via West Road)
- 01 179 -).75 35.0 2000 Sherman Avenue & Wagner Road 202 14 0.74 dh0 1MO 900 North Road
- 03 3:4 2.M 35 0 120 Beverly Drive & Lake Shore Drive 204 007 1 00 40.0 1M0 425 E. Road 205 3:1 0.32 30 0 1000 1600 N. Road 204 194 0.a2 30.0 1%0 375 E. Road
. :07 1:5 3.75 20.0 500 1400 N. Road, 600 E. Road, 1500 N. Road 203 168 0.99 30.0 11 1250N. Road 209 3:7 042 30.0 1009 500 E. Road 2:0 147 0.34 30.0 iM0 350 E. Road
- ! 139 0.19 40.0 :M0 500 W. Road (S. of US 6) 212 190 .11 20.0 M0 Ramp to US 12 213 1:4 1.05 55.0 t%0 I-94-(I-80 joins) 24 M6 0 12 35.0 120 37th Steet r
21: :14 0.37 35.0 1M0 37th Street
- 16 217 L:9 0.0 120 Ramp to US 20
- 17 :30 2.67 50.0 3000 US 20
- 13 l19 0.01 20.0 1 00 Ramp to I-94
- 19 174 ).30 : .0 2000 I-94 2:0 221 0.?$ 50.0 3000 State Route 149 221 171 0.21 M.0 3000 State Route 149 22 2 3 0.36 H.0 3000 US 12 023 ~2:0 0.34 40.0 M0 Left turn ramp to State Route 149
;;4 ;;5 0.96 50.0 1000 State Route 149 05 216 0.78 M.0 M0 State Route 149 226 027 h ?6 M.0 - IMO S~atu Route- 149
- 27 2:9 0.73 50.0 1:00 State Route 149
- 29 218 L94 M.0 3000 .3 tate Route 149
-4' 501 106 A23 15.0 1M0 A-1 to US 12/20 502 1:0 0.46 15.0 1M0 A-2 to Central Avenue (via Clay Street) 503 108 0.60 15.0 190 A-3 to 15th Avenue (via Aetna) M4- 107 0.40 1!.0 iMO A-4 to US 12 505 101 0.49 15.0 2000 A-5 to Lake Street TABLE 7 (Cont'd) ANCE NOX DIST SPEED CAP ROADWAY IDENTITY
$04 102 0.33 15.0 :500 A-6 to US 12 507 112 1.05 15.0 !!00 A-7 to County Line Road (via Oak Street)
!03 113 0.43 15.0 1:00 A-8 to County Line Road (via 5th Street)
!09 !!5 0.44 15.0 !!00 3-1 to EPZ limits
!!0 109 0.40 15.0 3000 3-2 to Central Avenue 511 1:9 0.47 15.0 1:00 3-3 to US 6/ State Route 51
!!2 130 0.74 15.0 1:00 3-4 to US 6/ State Route 51 13 111 0.23 15.0 1500 C-1 to Michigna Street
!!4 307 0.43 15.0 2000 D-1 to EPZ limits (Wisconsin Street)
!1: 308 0.34 15.0 2000 D-2 to EPZ limits (State Rouce 51) 514 131 0.24 15.0 1:00 D-3 to 37th Street 517 32 0.75 15.0 l000 D-4 to State Route 130
!!S 112 0.30 15.0 1500 E-1 to County Line Road tif 117 0.53 15.0 1500 E-2 to US 12
- 20 1:9 0.29 15.0 1:00 E-3 to US 20 521 1:5 0.39 15.0 2000 E-4 to US 20
!22 147 0.74 15.0 1500 E-5 to US 20
- 3 134 0.35 15.0 3000 E-6 to Stone Avenue 5:4 193 0.24 15.0 0000 E-7 to Willow Creek Road
- 143 1.09 15.0 1000 E-8 to 875 N. Road (via 400 U. Road) 5:4 131 0.70 15.0 1000 E-9 to County Line Road (via 700 N.)
527 133 0.99 15.J 1000 E-10 to 500 W. (via 700 N.) 5:9 14: 0.79 15.0 !00 E-ll to State Route 149 (via 700 N. Road
;9 140 0.38 15.0 1000 F-1 to 550 W. Road
!Io 147 0.38 15.0 1000 F-2 to State Route 149
!It :00 t.13 15.0 1:00 G-1 to 100 W. (via W. Road) 532 186 0.41 15.0 1500 G-2 to US 12 533 ::1 0 39 1!.0 1000 G-3 to State Route 149
!34 176 0J5 ' 15.0 1:00 G-4 to 200 W. Road (via Porter Road)
!3: :01 0.s3 15.0 I;00 G-5 to Sherman Avenue 534 160 0 33 ;5.0 1500- G-6 to Calumet Road
$37 los 0.93 15,0 1000 G-7 to State Route 49 (via Porter Rd. )
538 177 0.68 15.0 1500 G-8 to State Route 49 (via' Woodlawn Rd. ) 539 133 0.38 15 0 1500 G-9 to Furnessville Road
!40 137 1.20 15.0 !!00 S-1 (3ethlehem Steel) to US 12 I !41 183 0.35 15.0 ::00 S-2A (IN Dunes) to State Route 49 542 ::4 0.35 15.0 1000 S-2B (IN Dunes) to State Route 49 543 :6 0.35 15.0 100 S-2C (IN Dunes) to State R6ute 49 544 149 0.40 15.0 1500 H-1 to 200 West Road 54: 153 0.30 15.0 1000 H-2 to Meridian Road 546 149 0.75 15.0 1500 H-3 to 200 W. Road (via 900 N.)
547 154 0.33 15.0 1:00 H-4 to State Route 49 r 548 l02 0.75 15.0 1000 H-5 to 900 N. (via 200 E. Road) l 549 1:0 0.19 15.0 1000 H-6 to 700 N. Road , 1 r 1 TABLE 7 (Cont'd) 46 G 0:37 -FEG :;.7 ROADWAY IDENTITY 550 157 0.53 15.0 - ;000 H-7 to State Route 49 5:1 154 0.47- 15.0 1500 H-8 to Meridian Road
!!2 1:2 0.28 : .0 1500 J I to 500 North Road
!!3 159 0.53 : .3 1500 J-2 to. State Route'49
!!4 03 0 30 ;!.0 !!00 K-1 to Beverly Drive
!!5 92 J.!8 15.0 ::co K-2 to US 12
!54 :04 0.05 !!.0 1000 K-3 to 1550 N. Road
!!7 20: 0 38 !!.0 1 00 K-4 to 1600 North Road
!!8 206 0.30 ::.0 1 00 K-5 to 375 East Road
!!9 223 )J5 15.0 :200 K-6. to 1250 North Road
!40 ti: 2.68 ::.0 !!00 L-1 to 400 East Road
!61 :09 0. 3 15.3 :c00 L-2 to 500 East Road
!i2 : 0 0.19 !!.3 :000 L-3 to 350 East Road 4
4 , The capacities established for_ each link are not the
-capacities that could~be. expected under normal circumstances.
The evacuation of a ten-mile' area has all the vehicles headed in the same direction, with the possible exception of' emergency
~ vehicles coming' into the area. Because of the directional flow-
, 'and controlled routings, laneLcapacities are generally larger than~ could be expected' under normal circumstances. Another
.important factor that contributes to smoother ficw and greater capacities issthat all drivers of vehicles on any roadway segment are of one accord and are headed for the same location.
' hey are probably the most seasoned, experienced
~
Generally, t J of the drivers in a household. All drivers know that they must evacuate the area and cross the ten-mile zone. Table 8 indicates the vehicles on each link. The number of vehtcles is ' determined by the population to be evacuated and is -based upon the assumption ~ that each vehicle will evacuate i 3.0 people. It has been_ observed in other-actual evacuations that about 99 percent of evacuees leave by private automobile. j Therefore, this is a conservative assumption that all people are to be evacuated by automobile. The-number of vehicles on each link is a summation of all vehicles form the various subzones using any' specific link of roadway. Table 9 ' describes the evacuation routing in sequence for
- each subzone. The table gives the numbers ' of each node' through which each evacuation route passes. Table 7 describes each
, individual link in these evacuation sequences, and Table-8 indicates the number of vehicles- that negotiate each link during evacuation.
1
9 4 l l
* . 1 g
D TABLE 8 VEHICLES ON EACH LINK NORMAL WEEKDAY ANODE BNODE VEHICLE ANODE BNODE VEHICLE ANODE BNODE VEHICLE M1 103 1616 390 144 145 475 138 189 102 103 2011 390 145 146 2771 139 190 103 104 3627 390 146 147 2771 190 191 104 105 3627 3g39 192 390 47 312 191 105 106 4117 143 Icg 743 149 192 323 106 301 4277 149 334 193 12 0 150 107 105 490 194 161 135 150 151 505 108 302 1188 124 1945 1:1 152 505 195 109 110 19:6 152 123 1851 313 736 196 - 110 303 21 6 1:3 154 197 172 146 465 111 214 925 154 1:5 791 199 199 2943 112 113 .699 1:5 3!4 791 199 137 29t3 113 114 1974 156 157 516 000 198 390 114 115 2579 157 !!8 769 201 179 !!21 115 114 2579 158 !!9 208 769 202 156 116 117 0579 159 315 14 " '03 324 10 117 113 579 160 !al 1250 204 :07 000 119 304 4751 161 te2 1435 005 321 141 119 1:0 556 142 163 1435 206 164 143 100 121 556 163 164 143: 207 35 348 121 '" "6 164 313 143 209 16 21 122 123 !!o 165 136 23 209 317 29 123 213 :207 it6 316 531 010 137 303 1:4 119 4172 167 166 308 211 133 2943 1:5 126 1651 143 319 21 212 190 0 124 127 !s51 169 170 791 213 1:4 2207 127 196 16!1 170 171 771 214 306 1153 129 11, a05 171 172 1572 215 214 338 129 130 725 172 173 1719 216 217 0 130 195 1965 173 219 1719 217 180 ::21 131 215 338 174 175 2708 219 219 0 132 133 1693 175 3:0 2709 219 174 1713 133 310 3906 176 197 146 220 221 520 134 135 1930. 177 179 990 221 171 731 135 136 1930 178 174 190 222 223 $20 136 133 0213 179 217 :521 223 20 ::0 137 211 2943 190 191 2699 224 225 0 138 139 3026 181 182 2699 ::25 216 0 139 140 3026 192 322- 2699 226 227 0 140 141 3099 133 190 178 227 228 ~0 141 142 3099 134 07 148 229 ' 218 0 142 311 3099 136 222 520 501 106 160 143 144 475 197 198 0 502 110 200 TABLE 8 - (Cont' d) VEHICLES ON EACH LINK NORMAL w'EEKDAY ANODE BNODE VEHICLE ANODE BNODE VEHICLE 503 103 1133 546 149 2:6
!04 137. 490 !47 !!6 308
!05 101 1616 543 22 238 506 102 "011 !49 150 171 507 112 203 !!0 A57 2:3 4
551 ;!4 326
'08 113 275
'09 305 *i3 352 52 231
!!0 ;09 ;8h !!3 159 53 511 !!9 7:5 "4 33 ;!0
!!! ;;2 353 512 130 1:40
!!3 11 325 !!4 204 :;0 514 307 ;393 "7 205 141-
$15 308 945 "3 36 148 516 - 131 338 "9 209 !!
!!7 +32 1693
!40 ::: 223 541 09 29
!!3 :12 591 519 119 !!6 fo2 M 308 500 ;;9 :05 5:1 125 ' 16 1 522 139 791 523 134 1930 54 *99
. 2943
!!! 143 475 526 136 233
!:7 133 33 529 145. 2296 529 140 73 530 147 - 263 531 00 370 532 194 520 533 221 21; 534 176 146 535 201 :521 534 :30 1:!O
$37 194 135 538 177 990 139 183 178 540 197 0 541 193 0 542 . 224 0 543 226 0 544 148 108
!45 153 445
D TABLE 9 EVACUATICN ROUTE LINK NODE DESCRIPTION BY CENTROID LSE 40X 1 N0X 2 x0X 3 MX
- 30X 5 NCIE 6 30X 7 10;E 3 N0rE 9 10 X 10 W M 11 $00E 12 4X 13 41 !01 104 301 A2 !02 110 303 43 !03 103 302 44 504 107 105 106 301 45 505 101 103 104 105 104 301
, A4 504 102 103 104 105 106 301 47 507 112 113 114 115 116 117 113 304 A8 !C8 113 114 115 116 117 113 204 31 !09 305 32 510 109 110 303 33 511 129 130 195 124 119 304 34 512 130 195 124 IIS 304 C1 513 111 214 306 21 514 - 307 D2 515 308 33 !!6 131 215 214 304 04 517 132 133 310 El 513 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 304 E2 !!9 119 .120 121 122 123 213 124 118 304 E3 !20 129 114 115 116 117 118 304
s . . 9 TABLE 9 (Cont'd) D EVACUATION ROUTE LINK NODE DESCRIPTION BY CENTROID
'. IsE 90;f 1 'CE 2 60M 3 4CX 4 4CIE 5 %K 6 *CM 7' sCM 9 WrE 9 .WX 10 NOK 11 *0X 12 WX 13 E4 !1 125 124 - 127 194 1:3 213 1:4 119 304 E5 522 149 170 171 172 173 219 174 175 3:0 E6 !23 134 135 136 133 310 E7 !24 149 199 137 211 133 13 :40 14g 142 3gt E3 !!! 143 144 145 144 147 312 E9 526 134 133 310 (10 527 138 139 140 141 142 311 E11 529 145 144 147 312 F1 5:9 140 141 1C 311 c 523 147 312 31 531 000 198 199 190 191 192 323 3: 532 196 ::2 223 000 21 171 172 173 19 174 175 3:0 G3 133 221 171 172 173 219 174 175 3:0 G4 534 176 197 172 173 219 174 175 3:0 35 535 201 179 217 130 131 132 322 36 536 160 161 152 163 164 313 G7 537 194 161 162 163 164 319 33 538 177 178 174 175 320 39 539 - 193 190 161 192 322 51 540 137 198 189 190 191 192 3:3 SIA 541 193 212 190 191 172 113
a -. . - _. . . . - .~ . . _ ._ ~.
-e ,
D TABLE 9 (Cont'd) EVACUATION ROUTE
' LINK NODE DESCRIPTION BY CENTRGID
..'i CE! CE2 CE3 CE4 CE!.CE3 CE7 CE3 CE9 C E 10 *C*E ;l +::t :: CE ;3
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.. e Traffic Control Strategies There are certain. locations within the ten-mile EPZ where traffic control strategies must be applied to prevent travel conflicts and provide for the best distribution of traffic during the evacuation process.
An example of such a strategy occurs on State Highway 49 between Indiana Dunes State Park and the Indiana Toll Road. During the summer months, Indiana Dunes attracts a large recreational population. In order to effectively distribute traffic and minimise ' delay, it will be necessary to split the traffic leaving the Park on Route 49 into three equal parts. The first part would be diverted at US Highway 20 to enter the eastbound on-ramp. At Interstate 94 the second part would be directed to enter the eastbound en-ramp. The final group of vehicles would enter the
. Toll Road also eastbound.
Cn-site traffic management personnel will be required at all significant intersections to insure that pre-assigned evacuation routes are followed. Soecial Transportation Requirements-Transportation requirements for special problem groups, -i such as ncn-car owning families, hosp!tals, schools, jails, and_ so forth, were not included in the evacuation time assess-ment. The assumption was that all families would evacuate as a unit from their homes. i
, ., - ,. - ,, . . . , , . _.-_y...
~ o Lake Michican Evacuation of boats from the EPZ in Lake Michigan might be required following a nuclear incident at Bailly Nuclear-1. This could be accomplished by notifying the U.S Coast Guard De Tchment at Michigna City. Following receipt of a radio warning from the Coast Guard, it would take about 30 minutes for power boats traveling at 20 mph (17.6 knots) to evacuate. If lake winds were light it might be expeditious to tow sailboats from the EPZ. The Coast Guard Detachment and tht Coast Guard Auxiliary ccmbined would have seven power boats available for towing. Total Lake evacuation should not exceed three hours. Sector Evacuation Evacuation Plans are usually set up on a sector or quadrant basis. This assessment has not been concerned with segmenting the ten-mile radius. This assessment looked at total evacuation f rom the EPZ. However, this does not preclude evacuation by quadrants. Quadrants may be examined frem the data in this report. Sector evacuation may be approximated by the selection of apprcpriate planning zones.
. s o , .
j EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT Evacuation times have been considered for four different scenarios. The scenarios are:
- 1. Normal weekday - workers at work, children in school
- 2. Ideal' conditions - nighttime, most everyone at home
- 3. Summertime recreational peak
- 4. Adverse weather conditions - storm, fog, or flood The assessment was performed by computer to a process described in some detail in Volume I. >
Normal Weekday Table 10 lists the evacuation times by sub:ene for the four ] j scenarios listed above. The maximum evacuation time is two hours and 58 minutes for Sub:ene E-6 during the normal weekday. These evacuation times include receipt of warning, leaving work, travel home, departure from home, network travel and delay time. Nighttime This scenario crovides the shortestevacuation times of all. people are hcme from work, and children are home from school. With the family all at home, the mobilization time is less. ' There is a time distribution for receiving the warning and a time distribution for preparing to leave. The time' distributions for preparing to leave work and travel from work to home do not E l-apply. Under these conditions, the maximum evacuation time would be two hours'and 43 minutes for Subzone E-6. The third column of Table 10 gives the evacuation times at night. i ! l
. a o ,. 9 TABLE 10 Q . EVACUATION TIMES
~
k BY CENTROID 2% NORMAL SUMMERTI2G NIGHTTIME BAD WEATHER CEMin0:3 TI.4E )CENTRJID tine CENTRGID TIME 'CDITPOID TIME 41 76 41- 76 At 61 A1 102 A: 35 A2 55 42 70 A2 110 a3 ;7 A3 77 A3 62 A3 106 t.4 a A4 78 A4 63 A4 106 af 9 A5 150 A5 '35 45 175^ Ae 1:a 46 146 A6 1l,T A6 179 a; g; A7 130 A7 115 A7 146 r,6 c;) 48 120 A8 105 A8 141 91 J B1 77 B1 42 31 104
- - . 32 103 32 88 32 111 53 1;; 33 101 P3 86 33 114 3 :R P4 102 34 87 34 116
;1 77 C1 77 C1 62 C1 103 1 77 D1 77 D1 6't D1 103 C 's 22 76 02 31 02 103
,3 3 D3 79 D3 67 33 107
~4 lis D4 156 24 141 34 178 El 127 El 127 El 112 El 140 E2 37 E2 S7 E2 72 E2 127 E3 10' '
E3 107 E3 92 E3 139 E4 93 E4 f3 E4 es E4 127 E5 N2 E5 102 E5 87 E5 136 E6 Ji E6 178 E6 163 E6 191 E7 143 E7 148 E7 133 E7 167 E3 :47 El 147 E3 110 E8 165 EY 160 i9 160 E7 145 E9 187 E10 37 E10 87 E10 72 E10 122 E11 144 Eli 144 E11 129 (11 156 F1 ;9 F1 79 F1 64 F1 107 F2 99 F1 74 F2 117 f2 59 51 it il 91 St 76 ~ G1 13; l
e a , o e. e g TABLE 10 (Cont'd) EVACUATION TIMES 9 BY CENTROID 9 NORMAI, SUMMERTIME NIGHTTIME BAD WEATHER
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o*,o l l Summerti=e The evacuation times for summer are generally longer in the eastern portion of the EPZ than for the normal weekday or night-time. There is not a uniform incraase in evacuation times during the summer since caly a few subzones have additional summer pop-ulations. It is estimated that Indiana Dunes State Park and National Lakeshore Park (Subzone S-2) could have as many as 40,000 visitors on any given summer holiday. The Park would receive a direct warning by telephone thereby minimizing a delay in evacuation. Initial travel time for these people would generally precede the travel times on the network for people leaving home. The third column of Table 10 gives the evacuation times during the summer. Under these conditions the maximum evacuation tLne would be four hours and 54 minutes for Subzone S-2. Adverse Weather If the weather were adverse to the exter.: that traffic could not move on the roadway network, Bailly Nuclear-1 would probab_y have to be shut down. This might cacur during a severe saowstorm whipped by high winda. This scenario, however, assumes an ice storm, or an ice and snow combination, where roadways are not impassable, but are much slower to travel. Under these conditions, travel from work to hcme would be distributed over 40 minutes instead of 20 minutes. Network travel during evacuation would probably be reduced to one-half of normal speed. With these conditions, the maximum evacuation times, as shewn in the fourth column of Table 10, would be three hours and 11 minutes for Subzone E-6 and three hours and seven minutes for Subzone E-9. Generally, the adverse weather times are the longest of the four scenarios. l i i I I
~o' . >
** c )
Sector Evac. icion Evacuation Plans- are usually set up on a sector or quadrant b asis - .is assessment has not been concerned with segmenting l the 10-mile radius. The assessment looked at total evacuation l from the EPZ. Howe ve r, this does not preclude evacuation by quadrants. Quadrants can he examined from the data in this report. Sector evacuation can be approximated by the selection of app':opriate planning sones. I i ( h I J 4 n 5
+ - - - - , - a}}