ML19345C230
| ML19345C230 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Millstone  |
| Issue date: | 06/30/1980 |
| From: | Cosby J, Lamagna F, Sheppard W WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8012040186 | |
| Download: ML19345C230 (72) | |
Text
's e-r VOLUME Vill AN INDEPEhDENT ASSESSMENT OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR MILLSTONE l
NUCLEA3 30WER Pl_ ANT Prepared for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY 1
l I A CO.
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FREEDOM OF INFOR:1AIION ACT GMidas Smid and Assockites JUNE,1980 8 oleo 4050 f
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- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The independent assessment of the evacuation times contained in this report was performed under the technical direction of John C. Cosby.
Mr. William V. Sheppard, Vice President, was the Principal-in-Charge of the Project.
The principal contributors to the individual volumes of the report were:
Vclume I
- Program Report
- John C.
Cosby Volume II
- Bailly'
- James R. Bancroft Volume III
- Beaver Valley
- Richard A. Day Volume IV
- Enrico Fermi
- Elbert L. Waters Volume V
- Limerick
- George S. Coulter, Jr.
Volume VI
- Maine Yankee
- Robe rt P. Jurasin Volume VII
- Midland
- James R. Bancroft and Elbert L. Waters Volume VIII - Millstone
- Frank LaMagna Volume IX
- Shoreham
- E. Dean Browner Volume X
- Three Mile Island - Welbourne E. Thompscn All reports were revised and edited by John C. Cosby and H. Dean Browner.
All of the above personnel are permanent employees of Wilbur Smith and Associates.
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-d TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INTRCDUCTION 1
Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan 2
General Assumptions 3
Site Descriptions 6
Regional Characteristics S
Support organizations 12 Smumary of Emergency Planning to Date 15 AREA CHARACTERISTICS 17 Topography 17 Meteorology 17 Demography 19 Emergency Planning Zones 29 CONCEPT OF EVACUATION 37 Notification of Evacuation 37 Public Response Time 38 Evacuation Link / Node Network 40 Evacuation Network 41 Special Transportation Requirements 50 EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT 51 Normal Workday 51 Nighttime Condition 52 Summertime 52 Adverse Weather Conditions 55
s.
l ILLUSTRATIONS FoLLows FIGURE PAGE 1
Study Site Location 8
2 Special Problem Areas 19 3
Special Problem Areas 19 4
Special Problem Areas 19 5
Special Problem Areas 13 6
Evacuation Network 29 7
Evacuation Network 29 8
Evacuation Network 29 9
Evacuation Network 29 I
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TABULATIONS TABLE PAGE 1
Summary of Land Use, Eastern Coastal 9
Region of Connecticut 2
Anticipated 1985 Population Yearround 20
' 3 Anticipated Summer Seasonal Population 22 4
1970 Housing Characteristics 24 5
Househt' ls Without Private Transportation 25
~6 Study Area Schools 26 7
Other Governmental, Public and Private 30 Institutions 8
Evacuation Route Descriptions By Centroid 43 and Links, Millstone 9
Network Link Descriptions 45 10 Evacuation Times, By Centroid 53 11 Estimated Number of Vehicles on Each Link 54
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-o INTRODUCTION An independent assessment of evacuation times around nine nuclear power plant sites was made for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The results of this three-month study are contained in ten volumes, as follows:
Volume I
- Program Report - Evacuation Time Assessment of Nine Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Planning Zones (EPZ's)
Volume II
- Bailly Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume III
- Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume IV
- ?.nrico Fermi Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation if.ma Assessment Volume V
- Limerick Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume VI
- Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume VII - Midland Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume VIII - Millstone Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time.Assesament Volume IX
- Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume X
- Three Mile Island Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment In addition, an Executive Summary is also available.
This volume contains the evacuation times assessment for Millstone Nuclear Power Plant.
The evaluation of four scenarios and the discussion of evacuation of special problem areas are l
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The scenarios evaluated are those expected when evacua-tion takes place at night (the optimum time from the standpoint of evacuation time), during a normal workday, during bad weather (the worst case condition), ande where applicable, the evacuation with summertime resident and transient population.
Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan The assessment employs available demographic data and trans-portation facility information to predict the public response time to an evacuation warning on the assumption that such a warn-ing is made within 15 minutes of an on-site nucinar incident warranting such emergency action.
The assessment must provide for estimates of public response time to these warnings, assembly of family and other groups, preparation for departure,, travel time on the network including consideration of capacity limitations on the network possibly forming queues which add to delays, and clearance of the 10-mile radius around the site.
It must consider the evacuation of special problem areas and groups.
These would include schools, nurseries, nursing and retirement homes, hospitals, penal facilities, beaches 4
and recreational areas, and other activities which may provide 1
periodic or seasonal concentrations of people.
Population groups without access to their own transportation or unable to provide the special transportation facilities required for evacuation must be indluded in the evacuation time assessment.
Evacuation tune assessment methodology combines selected techniques of traffic management and planning, land use planning and operational analysis.
Because some conditions prevail b g during an evacuation are not well documented, modifications to
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some established principles may be required to meet evacuatien Assumptions may be required in lieu of well formu-requirements.
lated relationships because of the highly specialized problems These assumptions must be founded on best pro-being addressed.
fessional judgement and/or extrapolation from existing knowledge.
The bases upon The assumptions must be specifically identified.
which the assumptions are founded should be appropriately dis-cussed.
Evacuation time asas t.amants contain basic methodology common Howev.tr, the assessment is not to evacuation plan development.
The major distinction between the assessment an evacuation plan.
and a plan is the extent to which the elements have been coordi-For nated with all participant agencies and jurisdictions.
example, the assessment may assume that a specific traffic management element is established to optimize traffic operations The feasi-at a specific location along an evacuation network.
bility of such an element in the assessment would be based upon Ecwever, the element would established technical principles.
not be coordinated with specific law enforcement agencies to control and establish what agency would exercise the element management nor identify the type and number of personnel to be The study time allotted makes such coordination im-required.
l The assessment must identify what is required for possible.
the evacuation time to be realized, and assume that such an element would be implemented.
General Assumptions _
I In the assessment of evacuation times, certain general assumptions were mandatory.
More important of these are summa-rized as follows:
Emergency evacuation of the. general public from the EPZ 1.
will be performed largely from the home by the family as a united l
4 III group.
This assumption is prefaced by the following quote:
.. people will not evacuate an area, regardless of the danger, if their family group is separated, unless they know that members of their f amily are safe, accounted for, and that arrangements have been made for them to evacuate."
It was felt that this psychological pressure is so prevalent and strong that the above assumption appears to be justified.
In addition, to assure that segments of the family are safe and accounted for would have required the establishment of shelter locations and the develop-ment of a shelter support plan.
In view of the next assumption and due to the short time period of the study, this was nct done.
2.
Public use of shelters in previous mass evacuation expe.~
ience related to natural disasters appears to be a very small percentage of total evacuees.
Examples cited in literature include:I I "In a California flood, only 9,260 out of 50,000 persons evacuated registered in the 38 Red Cross shelters; during Hurricane Carla, 75 percent of the evacuees went to other than public shelters; and during Hurricane Betsy, only 20 percent requested assistance.
Generally, shelter centers are used only if nothing else is available or if one cannot financially care for himself."
In this evacuation time assessment study, it was assumed that the predominant traffic, after leaving the 10-mile EPZ, went diverse routes rather than to a shelter destination.
Therefore, the evacuation time assessment ended at the EPZ boundary.
An. analysis of route capacities and service levols of highway facilities beyond that boundazy was made to assure that delays or problems were unlikely to occur.
1 (1)
EVACUATION RISKS - AN EVALUATION, U.S. Environmental Pro-taction Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, EPA-520/6 002, June, 1974, p. 49.
(2)
Ibid., p. 52.
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Experience gained in a large range of evacuations indi-3.
cates that private vehicles (3)
. were the predominant mode.
for evacuation (more than 99 percent).
Population density ranged from approximately 15 persons per square mile to 20,000 persons It was assumed that this was applicable to per square mile."
this time assessment study.
It was further assumed that persons without private vehicle transportation would be provided, at their telephone request, adequate transportation in high occu-The additional vehicle volumes on the pancy vehicles (HOV's).
network would therefore be small, could be affected d'uring the general public evacuation time, and would not affect the computed evacuation times of the general population.
It has been observed that not all persons will evacuate 4.
"In many cases, even when presented with a grave threat, the EPI.
people refuse to evacuate."I4I This source continues, "Results of this study indicate that approximately six percent of the total Other reports indicate this population refused to evacuate.
There is no reason to figure can run as high as 50 percent.
believe that because the. disaster agent is radiation rather than
. will provide sufficient motivation to some other agent.
Rather the opposite viewpoint should be taken-people leave.
will hesitate to leave."(
It is believed that a majority of this hesitance is based on fear of exposing their property to Notwithstanding this evidence, this time looting and vandalism.
assessment study assumed that all persons evacuate.
It has been assumed that the traffic entwork within the 5.
EPZ has been isolated so that no through traffic is permitted to enter it within 15 minutes after the evacuation warning has been issued.
t (3)
Ibid., p. 52.
(4)
Ibid., p. 48.
(5)
Loc. cit. -
(
Traffic management by appropriate law enforcement officers 6.
will be performed at selected intersections where evacuation traffic flow is given priority.
All persons in the EPZ have been provided, in advance, 7.
sufficient information regarding the assigned evacuation route (referred to as the " centroid" in from their place of residenes the report).
It was assumed that the public response to an evacuation S.
order can be defined as a combination of up to four categories receive warning, leave of statistically distributed responses:It was assumed that these work, travel home, and evacuate home.
responses are time-distributed following a normal distribution The details and applications of this assumption are more curve.
fully discussed later in this report.
Additional assumptions were made which are summarized at the back of the report under this heading.
Site Description The Millstone Nuclear Power Station is located on the northern shore of Long Island Sound in the Town of Waterford, New London County, Connecticut.
Specifically, the 500-acre site is on a peninsula bounded on the west by Niantic Bay and the east by It is about 3.2 miles southwest of New London Jordan Cove.
and 40 miles southeast of Hartferd, Connecticut.
s The site is owned by Northeast Utilities.
Approximately 325 acres of the site is available for public recreational /
These activities attract conservation activities, however.
an estimated population of 400 people daily in an average with The a possibility of 2,000 people==v4 mum at any one time.
New York-Boston Line of CONRAIL, traverses the site.,
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. g Within the 10-mile radius, a 1985 projected permanent population of 128,600 people is anticipated.
The towns / cities encompassing this area of influence include:
e New London County, Connecticut Waterford East Lyme Old Lyme Lyme Montville New London Ledyard Town of Groton City of Groton e
Middlesex County, Connecticut _
Old Saybrook Suffolk County, New York Fishers Island Plum Island Licensee - Northeast Utilities is the licensee of the Millstone Nuclear Power Station.
Plant Tvoe - The facility consists of two plants; Millstone 1, operating since 1970, has a Boiling Water Reactor System while Millstone 2, operating since 1975 has a Pressurized Water Reactor Millstone 3, under construction and having a 1986 planned l
System.
operation date, will also have a Pressurized Water Reactor System.
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Millstone 1 has an output capacity of 660,000 kilowatts and Millstone 2 has an output capacity of 870,000 kilowatts.
Millstone 3, when in operation, will have an output capacity of 1,150,000 kilowatts..
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l Emergencv Plannine Zone _ - A 10-mile radius surrounding a nuclear power plant is designated for the delineation of the This radius encompasses all or emergency planning zone (IPZ).
portions of the 10 towns / cities in Connecticut and portions of two islands in Suffolk County, Long Island, New York.
The Emergency Planning Area was established to adhere to the 10-mile radius (EPZ).as close as possible.
Boundaries were defined to coincide with readily identifiable landmarks such as jurisdictional boundaries, roadway, rivers and other The peripheral boundaries well known topographical faatures.
will assist the State / Local agencies implementing the plan and people evacuating the area to identify the 10-mile radius It should also m W mize the evacuation of people residing limit.
This 10-mile radius is depicted in beyond the 10-mile radius.
Figure 1.
Recional Characteristics
- Land uses within the 10-mile radius is basically low to medium density residential and recreational.
Major population and employment centers in the area are New London and Groton, located about 3.2 miles and 7.5 miles northeast of Millstone, The seasonal recreational areas also provide respectively.
related commercial activities.
Industrial and man =rcial land use is also present in the utbanized areas while agricultural activity is in the rural The area also contains various institutional communities.
l and governmental facilities throughout.
Relative to regional planning, Waterford, East Lyme, Mont-(
are within ville, New London, Ledyard and Groton (town and city),
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STUDY SITE LOCATION EVACU ATION TIME ASSESSMENT l
MILLSTONE F10URE 1
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Table 1
SUMMARY
OF LAND USE EASTERN COASTAL REGION OF CONNECTICUT j
4 OF ACRES TOTAL DEVELOPED LAND Residential Low Density Residential 12,894 2.44 Medium Density Residential 10,295 1.95 9,288 1.76 High Density Residential 32,477
- 6. 15 Total Residential 2,165.8 0.41 Commercial 868.1 0.16 Industrial, Open 943.2_
0.18 Industrial, Intensive 1,811.3 0.34 Total Industrial 6,967.2 1.32 Institutional, open 1,953.4 0.37 Institutional, Intensive 8,920.6 1.69 Total Institutional 15,482 2.93 Utilities and "ransportation 39,500.0 7.48 Recreation, State 1,522.0 0.29 Recreation, Municipal 15,200.0 2.88_
Recreation, Private 56,222.0 10.65 Total Recreation 117,078.7 22.17 TOTAL DEVELOPED LAND UNDEVELOPED LAND 38,615.6 7.31 Agriculture 372,478.5 70.52 Misc. Undeveloped Land 411,094.1 77.83 TOTAL DEVELOPED LAND 528,172.8 100.00 TOTAL LAND, AREA 825.27 sq mi NOTES:Tabulation obtained from Northeast Utilities.
1.
Connecticut Office of State Planning.
Source:
Includes all the towns in the Connecticut River Estuaryand Southeastern 2.
3.
Planning Agency (CREPA)
Planning Agency (SCRPA).
Data for the SCRPA area is based on their latest reportThe late 4.
dated 1971.
9
the Southeastern Connecticut Regional Planning Agency while Lyme, Old Lyme and Old Saybrook are within the Connecticut River Estuary Regional Planning Agency.
A snmma7 of land use within the jurisdiction of these two agencias is listed in Table 1.
Maior Population Centers - With'.n the 10-mile radius, there are two urbanized areas r'epresenting an estimated resident
^
population of 70,500 peopl's or about 55 percent of the total New London, having an area of 5.46 square miles is 128,600.
- Groton, expected to have a 1985 population of about 33 400 people.
having an area of~29.60 square miles is expected to have a 1985 population of about 37,300 people of which 11,500 people will be in the northeast corner of Groton in the U.S. Navy Submarine Base complex and immediately surrounding area.
The major active recreational areas include:
Rocky Neck State Park - 568 acres e
Harkness Memorial State Park - 235 acres e
e Ocean Beach Park e
Waterford Beach Park 95 acres Nehantic State Forest - 1,599 acres e
e Fort Griswold - 16 acres.
Major Transportation Facilities - The major highway trans-portation facilities within the EPZ are Interstate Route 95, an east-west, facility traversing the area about four miles north of the site and Connecticut Route 52, a northeast-southwest facility traversing the area bout 5.5 miles north of the site.
They are multi-lane, limited access facilities.
Connecticut Route 32, located about 5.5 miles northeast of the site serves the north-south corridor of New London-eastern Waterford and is basically a four-lane divided highway in the EPZ.
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I The remainder of the highway network consists essentially of two-lane roadways.
These roadways include Connecticut Route 156, an east-west facility along the shore line from Waterford to Old Lyme where it then runs north-south along the east side of the Connecticut River; Connecticut Route 161, a north-south facility starting in Niantic, a resort community in East Lyme and extending north to Connecticut Route 85 in Montville; Con-necticut Route 51, an east-west facility in East Lyme and Old Lyme; Connecticut Route 85, a southeast-northwest facility from New London to Montville and beyond; Connecticut Route 84, an east-west facility from Groton to Stanington and beyond; Con-necticut Route 117, a north-south facility from southern Groton north through Ledyard; and Connecticut Route 12, a north-south facility from Groton north through Ledyard.
U.S. Route 1 (lA) is also a major arterial roadway, traversing the entire EPZ in an east-west direction.
Located about three miles north of the site, it is basically a two-lane facility except in the higher-density commercial / urban areas where it is a four-lane roadway.
Other forms of transportation are available in the area.
They include rail, air and water transportation.
The CONRAIL tracks which actually traverse the site serve the New York-Boston Line of CONRIAL and AMTRACK.
Air transportation is available at the consnercial Trumbull Airport in Groton, located seven milh east of the site, and the privately-owned New London Airport in Waterford, located about four miles north of the site.
Boating is a favorite recreational activity in the area.
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There are 500 boat slips in the Niantic River and Niantic Bay.
Ferry service is also available from the mainland at New London to Fishers Island (New York), Black Island (Rhode Island) and Orient Point (Long Island, New York).
Commercial boating 11-
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1 However, for analysis activity is also present in the area.
purposes these other for:ns of transportation were not considered in the evacuation of pecple on the mainland and thus a w re assessment of time was analyzed.
conservative (critical)
Support Organizations In case of an emergency, close coordination between Federal, and local agencies is imperative to provide the responsi-bility necessary to insure implementation of an evacuatican plan.
- State, Support agencies expected to coordinate activities in the Millstone area are:
Northeast Utilities - Licensee e
Governor's Office o
State Department of Civil Preparedness e
State Department of Environmental Protection e
State Department of Health e
State Police e
State Depart:nent of Agriculture e
State Department of Consumer Protection o
State Depa. h t of Transportation e
State Department of Social Services e
Connecticut National Guard e
Town of Waterford e
Board of Selectman operations Officer Civil Preparedness Office Police Department Fire Department Public Works Espartment i
' Health Department Welfare Department Board of Education and School Department Parks and Recreation Departusnt Waterford Ambulance Service Water and Sewer Depa.wt j
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Town of East Lyme e
Board of Selectmen Civil Preparedness Office Resident State Trooper and Town Constables Fire Department Highway Department Parks and Recreation Depart:sentBealth Department and Board of Education Water Department Town of Old Lyme e
Board of Selectmen Civil Preparedness Office Police Depa. h t Fire Department Parks and Recreation Depa_wt Board of Education Health and Welfare Departments Public Works / Engineering Departments Town of Montville e
Board of Selectmen Civi1 Preparedness Office Police Department Fire De'.drtment Parks and Recreation Depart:nent Board of Education Bealth and Walfare Depa m ents Public Works / Engineering Depa h ts Town of Ledyard e
Board of Seleetman Civil Preparedness Office Police Department Fire Department Parks and Recreation Department Board of Education Health and Welfare Departments Public Works / Engineering Depa. h ts Town of Old Saybrook e
Board of Select:nen
, Civil Preparedness Office Police Department Fire Department Parks and Recreation Department Board of Education Health and Welfare Departments Public Works / Engineering Departments
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e Town / City of Groton Board of Selectmen Civil Preparedness Office j
Plice Department Fire Department Parks and Recreation Department Board of Education Health and Welfare Departments Public Works / Engineering Departments e
City of New London City Manager Civil Preparedness Office Police Depa. m t Fire Department Board of Education Public Works Department Parks and Racreation Department Department of Engineering and Public Utilities Public Health Department Transit District Welfare Department Ocean Beach Park o
Fishers Island Town Hall Civil Prepare.. s Office Fire Department Police Department Federal Agencias e
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Consnission U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Food & Drug P'=4 n4 *tration U.S. Defense Civil Preparedness Agency U.S. Coast Guard, New London U.S. Department of Agrieniture (Plum Island)
Interagency Radiological Assistance Plan (ERDA)
'Brookhaven National Laboratory (Brookhaven, Long Island)
Federal Emergency Management Agency Private Agencias e
Haddam Neck Station, Connecticut Yankee Atomic Power Company Northeast Utilities Service Company Electric Boat, General Dynamics Lawrence & Memorial Hospitals, New London Middlesex Memorial Hospital, Middletown Red Cross l l e
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Salvation Army Southern New England Telephone Company Civil Air Patrol Local Radio and Television Stations Orient Point (Long Island, New York) Ferry Service Summary of Emeroency Planning to Date Emergency Operations Plan - Fixed State of Connecticut, Nuclear Facility Radiological Emergency Response Plan by the State of Connecticut and its office of Civil Preparedness and in cooperation with Northeasf. Utilities, Town of Waterford, Town of East Lyme and City of New London, 1977.
State office of Civil Preparedness, The State of Connecticut, Northeast Utilities, Town of Waterford, Town of East Lyme and City of New London have selected emergency operating centers, evacuation routes, access control points.and evacuation / relocation centers for evacuating a two and five mile radius around Millstone.
The Towns of Montville and Old Lyme have made their public and private schools and civic buildings available for use by evacuees from these communities.
The notification syrtam of informing these public agencies /
designated officials is set up to be made by telephone or radio.
The system is initiated by the shift supervisor at Millstone and continues to the State Police, Governor's Office, Northeast Utilities and the local ccannunities.
Waterford-East Lyme-New Lon, don Tri-Town Mutual Aid Agreement 1980 (Updated Every Year) - In case evacuation measures
- Plan, are required, these communities have set up a siren system to The siren system, strategically notify residents and visitors.
placed throughout the area, will sound an alert signal, which Police, fire and civil is a three to five minute. steady wail. - -
i preparedness volunteers will also :nake street by street notificat on In addition, local tele-utilizing mobile public address systems.
vision and radio will broadcast emergency warning information.
Finally, pamphlets and other infor: nation devices are used to con-ld tihually educate residents of procedures and instructions shou Via a telephone calling system, l
an evacuation become necessary.
transportation will be made availlable to people requiring trans-portation to evacuate the area.
The plan is updated annually considering the changes in public officials, transportation system improvements, notification It is a well developed and energetic system sophistication, etc.
plan.
Lastly, a notification and evacuation plan is presently being developed by the State of Connecticut and its Office of Emergency Preparedness, Northeast Utilities and the 10 towns /
In this regard, cities in Connecticut within the 10-mile radius.
A Feasibilitv Recort on Evacuation of the Area Around the M Nuclear Power Station, dated March, 1980, has been prepared by and Northeast Storch Engineers, a transecrtation consultant, The report Utilities Service Company for Northeast Utilities..
identifies the 10-mile radius, evacuation routes and evacuation times.
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ARIA CHARACTERISTICS The following describes the general area characteristics within the ]O-mile radius relative to topography, meteorology and demography, and identification of the individual emergency planning zones.
Topography The general topography in the area is rolling terrain with numerous streams, valleys, hills, steep slopes, inland wetlands Inland, the region slopes gradually to the and bedrock outcrops.
The area south and east with elevations of 200 feet to 500 feet.
adjacent to the Long Island Sound, is, of course, coastal lowlands.
The Thames River, separating New M ndon and Groton and ex-tending to Norwich about 18 miles to the north, and the Connec-ticut River, separating Old Lyme and old Saybrook and extending to Hartford about 40 miles northwest and beyond into the upper New England States, are.the two major waterways in the area.
Meteorologv The average mean temperature in the vicinity of Millstone is 49 F-. with a mean average annual =4n % = temperature of -2 F.
0 and a mean average annual maximum temperature of 87.6 F.
Average precipation in the area over the last thirty years is about 38.61 inches with a maximum 24 hour2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br /> precipitation of 6.89 inches., Prevailing winds are NW (about 10.02 percent of the time)
Hurricanes are infrequent and WSW (10.21 percent of the time).
Winds of 115 miles per but occur about once in every 17 years.
hour have a probability of occuring once in every 100 years. _
A 67 mile per hour NNW wind has been the highest wind Between 1974 and 1978 the following velocity recorded since 1961.
has been recorded:
WIND VELOCITY PE"tCENT OF OCCURRANCE (Miles per Hour _)
11.26 1-3 29.7 4-7 32.2 8 - 12 18.4 13 - 18 6.2 19 - 25 2.1 25 With respect to fog, the following is the visibility 1974-1978 time period:
distributions have been recorded over the VISIRILITY PERCEhT Of NUMBER OCCURRANCE DISTANCE OF HOURS (Meters) 0.43 137 O - 400 0.92 292
- 800 1.09 343
- 1600 1.74 548
- 2400 4.39 1,386
- 4800 95.61 30,193 4800 1..
Freezing / icing conditions occur for 28.3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> per year on the average based on recorded 1949-1978 conditions.
Additionally, the average annual snowfall is about 30 inches.
Worst snow storm conditions for one hour, three hours and 24-hours expected in one year,10 year, 50 year and 100 year frequencies are as follows:
ANTICIPATED WORST SNOW STORM CONDITIONS SNOWFAIL WITHIN ONE UAR 30 YEAR 50 YEAR 100 YEAR, One Hocr.
1.1 in.
2.1 in.
2.65 in.
3.0 in.
Three Bours 1.55 in.
2.8 in.
3.65 in.
4.05 in.
24-Hours 2.70 in.
5.0 in.
6.4 in.
7.1 in.
Democraphy The 10-mile radius surrounding Millstone has been broken down into 22 zones with a total of 36 population centroids.
Projected 1985 population and employment in each centroid for year around and summertime are given in Tables 2 and 3.
Dtu-ing the summer season, the area grows significantly relative to residents and transients (day visitors).
Table illustrates the populations within the centroids for these conditions.
Relative to housing, Table 4 lists the type of housing available by community.
Most households within the 10-mile radius have access to private transportation (autoncbile).
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Table 5 indicates the percent of households within the 10-mile that do not'own cars, however, it will be these families that would require special assistance to evacuate their respective area.
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Study area schools are listed in Table 6 and located on Figures l
2,3,4, and 5.
They include local active public and private scnools. l
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e Table 2 ANTICIPATED 1985 POPULATION FARROUND Millstone 1985 NORMAL CENT 140ID POPULATION EMPLOYMENT A1 450 55 A2 4'00 150 B1 650 160 B2 1,200 270 C
1,75,0 250 D1 3,400 330 D2 670 25 El 2,865 365 E2*
NA NA E3*
NA NA F
4,975 1,365 G1 5,070 975 G2 2,595 275
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2,490 810 L
2,510 450 M1 5,445 730 M2 6,450 3,920 M3 3,810 4,875 N1 3,975 5,915 N2 8,375 3,875 N3 3,160 565 0
3,600 1,185 _
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o Table 2 (Continued) 1985 NORMAL CENTROID POPULATION EMPLOYMENT P1 1,325 1,560 P2 3,650 2,240 Q1 4,110 280 Q2 2,920 1,415 R1 5,530 17,760 R2 2,075 1,090 S
11,565 6,850 T
4,150 2,950 U
6,530 855 Fishers Island (New York) 400 NA Plum Island U.S. Department of Agriculture (New York)
Animal Disease Laborato.m. (
(Restricted to the Pub.lic)
Centroids E2 and E3 represent Rocky Neck State Park Area and therefore are Not Applicable (NA) to the permanent year round population.
f Table 3 ANTICIPATED SUMMER SEASONAL POPULATION Millstone N ROID 1985 SUMMER POPULATION 1985 DAILY VISITORS TOTAL A1 585 0
585 A2 505 0
505 B1 3,040 400 2,440 B2 1,905 0
1,905 C
2,780 0
2,780 D1 4,335 100 4,435 D2 1,105 300 1,405 El 2,865 0
2,865 E2 1,390 4,050 5,440 E3 1,390 4,050 5,440 F
6,425 1,200 7,625 G1 6,000 300 6,300 G2 4,145 300 4,445 l
El 2,440 0
2,440 H2 2,875 O
2,875 Il 4,030 400 4,430 I2 4,600 0
4,600 J1 5,200 0
5,200 J2 3,485 50 3,535 K
2,835 50 2,885 L
2,750 0
2,750 M1 11,015 2,500 13,5 15 M2 G,545 0
6,545 M3 3,830 0
3,830 N1 4,000 0
4,000 N2 8,445 0
8,445 N3 3,255 0
3,255 Table 3 (Continued)
CECROID 1985 SUMMER POPULATION 1985 DAILY VISITORS TOTAL 0
3,690 50 3,740 P1 1,620 50 1,670 P2 3,920 200 4,120 Q1 5,630 0
5,630 Q2 4,165 800 4,965 R1 5,650 50 5,700 R2 2,135 0
2,135 S
11,565 300 12,440 T
6,250 0
6,250 U
6,610 0
6,610 Fishers Island 2,500 (New York)
Plum Island Not (New York)
Available 4
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4 Table 4 1970 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Millstone VACANT l-UNIT 2 OR MORE SEASONAL ALL STRUCTURES
- UNIT AND VACANT HOUSING (INCLUDES STRUCTURES
- MIGRATORY UNITS MOBILE HOMES)
(MULTI-FAMILY)
UNITS East Lyme 3,941 3,105 464 372 Groton 11,307 7,028 3,898 381 Ledyard 3,336 2,993 294 49 Montville 4,563 3,687 837 39 New London 10,561 3,536 6,952 73-Waterford 5,536 4,909 421 206 Lyme 1,613 1,609 4
0 Old Lyme 4,053 2,279 63 1,711 Old Saybroek 4.423
- 3,333 138 952 TOTAL 49,333 32,479 13,071 3,783
- Includes occupied and vacant for sale, vacant for rent and vacant year-roundt units.
SOURCE:
1970 Census of Population and Housing..
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Table 5 HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT PRIVATE TRANSPORTATION TOWN / CITY PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLOS WITHOUT CARS Waterford 5.6 East Lyme 5.5 Old Lyme
- 2. 7 Groton 5.1 Ledyard
- 1. 7 Montville 3.8 New London 23.0*
Old Saybrook NA Lyme NA Includes full operation of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy and Connecticut College
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NA - Not Available 2 _ - _.
Table 6 STUDY AREA SCHOOLS TOTAL DESIGNATION PUBLIC SCHOOLS GRADES POPULATION 5-1 Niantic, East Lyme K-5 412 S-2 Lillie B. Haynes, East Lyme K-5 451 S-3 East Lyme Jr. High, East Lyme 6-8 and Special 884 Education S-4 Mile Creek, Old Lyme/Lyme K-6 294 S-5 Center, Old Lyme K-6 284 S-6 Lyme-Old Lyme Jr./Sr. High 7-12 913 S-7 Flanders, East Lyme K-5 and Special 573 Education S-8 East Lyme High, East Lyme 9-12 1,264 S-9 Great Neck, Waterford K-6 338 S-10 Southwest, Waterford K-6 473 S-11 Nathan Hale, New London K-6 512 S-12 Harbor, New London K-6 416 S-13 Oswegatchie Elementary, K-6 326 Waterford S-14 Clark Lane Jr. High, Waterford 7-8 678 S-15 Waterford High, Waterford 9-12 1,235 S-16 Cohanzia Elementary, Waterford K-6 434 3-17 Quaker Hill Elementar'r, K-6 262 Waterford S-18 Edgerton, New London K-6 344 S-19 Jennings, New London K-6 362
]S-20 New London Jr. High, New London 7-8 666 S-21 New London High, New London 9-12 1,214 S-22 Noank, Groton K-6 297 S-23 Fitch Senior High, Groton 10-12 1,413 S-24 Claude Chester, Groton PK-6 434 5-25 Fitch Jr. High, Groton 7-9 763 S-26 Colonel Ledyard, Groton K-3 197 l
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(Continued)
TOTAL l
DESIGNATION PUBLIC SCHOOLS GRADES POPULATION S-27 Eastern Pt., Groton PK-6 535 S-28 Groton Heights, Groton PK, 4-6 168 S-29 Mary Morrison, Groton K-6 636 S-30 Pleasant Valley, Groton K-6 591 S-31 William Seely, Groton K-6 331 S-32 West Side Jr. High, Groton 7-9 376 S-33 Charles Barnum, Grcton K-6 571 S-34 Gales Ferry, Ledyard K-6 232 S-35 Palmer Memorial, Montville K-6 209 S-36 Winthrop, New London K-6 357 S-37 Dr. Charles E. Murphy, 7-8 662 Montville S-38 Butler School, Mystic Not Available S-39 Namaang School Not Available TOTAL DESIGNATION PRIVATE SCHOOLS POPULATION S-40 Sacred Heart, Groton 272 S-41 Southeastern Regional vacational 775 Technical School, Groton 5-42 St. Mary, New London 245 S-43 St. Joseph, New London 212 S-44 New Independent High School 62 New London S-45 St. Bernard's High School, 1,395 Montville S-46 Williams School, New London 212 i
f i
Table 6 (Continuad)
TOTAL DESIGNATION COIJ EGES POPULATION S-47 University of Connecticut 745 Extension, Groton S-48 University of Connecticut 525 Marine Research Laboratory, Noank l
S-49 Mohegan College, Norwich/New London 745 S-50 Connecticut College, New London 2,070 S-51 Mitchel College, New London 1,185 O
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Other major governmental, public and private institutions are listed in Table 7 and coded on Figures 2,3,4 and 5.
Emergenev Planning Zones There are 21 evacuation planning zones and 37 centroids of population in Connecticut for-the Millstone Nuclear Power Plant.
Fishers Island, New York and Plum Island, New York will be treated separately in evacuation the 10-mile radius.
The centroid locations depict the location of major popu-lation and the average distance of travel to the evacuation route.
In some instances multiple centriods have been assigned to a zone where more than one evacuation route is utilized, or the distribution of population within the zone warrants multiple centroids.
The following is a description of each Emergency Planning Zone, as illustrated in Figure 6,7,8 and 9.
Zone A - Zone A consists of the Town of Old Saybrook.
It is bounded on the north by the Town of Essex, on the wast by Oyster River and Middlesex Turnpike, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the east by the Connecticut River.
There are two centroids of population assigned to the same evacuation route.
Zone B - This zone consists of a portion of the Town of Old Lyme.
It is bounded on the north by the Connecticut Turn-pike and the Conrail Tracics, on the west by the Connecticut River, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the east by ham 5ett Point and Black Hall River.
There are two centroids c f copulation assigned to the same evacuation route.
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Table 7 OTHER MAJOR GOVERNMENTAL, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INSTITUTIONS TOTAL DESIGNATION HOSPITALS POPULATION H-1 U.S. Navy Submarine Base, 60 Groton H-2 U.S. Coast Guard (First Aid 30 Station), New London H-3 Lawrence and Memorial 1,527 Hospital, New London H-4 Seaside Sanitarium, Waterford 536 TOTAL DESIGNATION PRISONS POPULATION P-1 State Correctional Institute 222 for Women, Niantic P-2 State Correctional In.*titute 149 for Men, Montville TOTAL DESIGNATION FEDERAL INSTITU* IONS POPULATION F-1 U.S. Navy Suhmarine Base 16,250 F-2 U.S. Coast Guard Acudemy 1,630 (Educational Facility)
F-3 U.S. Coast Guard Training Station Part of the Academy TOTAL STATE INSTITUTIONS POPULATION (Not Illustrated 7n Figure
)
State Department of Health, 20 New London Mystic Oral School, Mystic 50 30-M
Table 7 (Continued)
SUMMER MAJOR PUBLIC RECREATIONAL AREAS ATTENDANCE Harkness Memorial State Park, Waterford 1,000 Rocky Neck State Park, East Lyme 15,000 Waterford Beach Park, Waterford 11,000 Ocean Beach, New London 15,000 Millstone (on-site), Waterford 2,000 (Peak) 400 (Average)
NUMBER OF NURSING / CONVALESCENT HOMES TOWN BEDS (Not Illustrated in Figure
)
Briarcliff Skilled Nursing Home New London 29 Groton Convalescent Home Groton 29 Beechwood Manor Inc.
New Londen 45 Camelot Convalescent Home New London 60 Greentree Manor Convalescent Waterford 90 Center Groton Regency Retirement and Groton 120 Nursing Center Mary Kenny Nursing Home Inc.
Waterford 150 New London Convalescent Home Inc.
Waterford 120 Nutrag Pavilion Healthcare New London 140 Old Fellows Home of Connecticut Groton 45 (Fairview)
Ferry Point Skilled Nursing Home Olc Saybrook 120 Saybrook Convalescent Hospital Old Saybrook 120
~31-
Table 7 (Continued)
NUMBER OF MAJOR EMPLSYEES TCWN EMPLOYEES (Not Illus t' ated in Figure
)
Dow Chemical Ledyard 300 Pfizer, Inc.
Groton 2,700 Electric Boat Division of General Dynamic Groton 20,000 Bureau of Business Practics Corporation Waterford 366 Arwood Corporation Groton 282 Robertson Paper Box Company Montville 371 Hermitage Ecspital Products East Lyme 225 Day Publishing Company New IcLdon 160 New London Underwater Systems Laboratories New London 1,300 Sheffield Tube Company New London 354 Thames Valley Steel Corporaticn New London 300 l e r
J l
i Zene C - Ione C consists of a portion of the Town of Old Lyme.
It is bounded on the north by the Connecticut Turnpike, on the west by Hatchett Poin*
-d Black Hall River, on the south by the Conrail Tra(
T.ang Island Sound, and on the east by the Town of East Zone D - Zone D const a portion of the Towns of Lyme and Old Lyme.
It is boundou on the north by the Towns of Salem and East Haddam, on the west by the Connecticut Rivar and Eight Mile River, on the south by the Connecticut Turnpike, and on the east ny the Town of East Lyme.
t Zone E - Zona E consists of a portion of the Town of East Lyme.
It is bounded on the north by the Connecticut Turnpike, on the west by the Town of Old Lyme, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the east by the Pataguanset River, Red Brook and Riverville Road.
There are three population centroids; El represent _ g the resident population and E2 and E3 Rockey Neck State Park population.
Each centroid is assigned to a different evacuation route.
Zone F - This zone consists of a portion of the Town of East Lyme.
It is bounded on the north by the Connecticut Turn-pike, on the west by the Pataguanset River, Red Brook and River-ville Road, on the south by Iong Island Sound, and on the east by the Niantic River.
There are two centroids of populations assigned to the same evacuation route.
l r
Zone G - Zone G consists of a portion of the Town of East Lyme.
It is bounded on the north by the Town of Salem, on the west by the Towns of Lyme and Old Lyms, on the south by the Connecticut Turnpike, and on the east by the Towns of Waterford and Montville.
There are two centroids of population with different evacuation routes.
They are separated by Powers Lake. -
zone H - Zone H consists of a portion of the Town of Waterford.
It is bounded on the north by Interstate acute 95, on the west by the Niantic River, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the i
east by Jordan Cove and Spithead Road.
There are two population centroids with the same evacuation route.
Zone I - 3cne I consists of a portion of the Town of Waterford.
It is bounded on the north by Boston Post Road and Fog Plain Road, on the west by Jordan Cove and Spithead Road, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on th's east by the City of New London.
There are two population centroids within the same evacuation route.
Zone J - Zone J consists of a portion of the Town of Waterford and City of New London.
It is bounded on the north by Douglas Lane, on the west by Jordan Brook, on the south by Fog Plain Road, and on the east by Vauxhall Street Extension, Interstate Route 95, Willians Street and Jefferson Avenue to the New London City line.
There are two population centroids separated by Interstate Route 95.
They also have different evacuation routes.
Zone K - Zone K consists of a portion of the Town of Waterford.
It is bounded on the north by the Town of Montville, on the west by the Town of East Lyme, on the south by Douglas Lane and Interstate Route 95, and on the east by Vauxhall Roac; and Fire Street.
Zone L - Zone L consists of a portion of the Town of Montville.
It is bounded on the north by Black Swamp Road and the Town of Salem, on the west by the Town of East Lyme, on the south by the Town of Waterford, and on the east by Barnville Hill.
Zone M - Zone M consists of a portion of the Town of New Londen.
It is bounded on the north'by Williams Street, Jefferson l !
1
Avenue and Bank Street, on the west by the Town of Waterford, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the east by the Thames River.
There are three population centroids with three different evacuation routings.
M1 consists of the area south of CONRAIL with M2 between CONRAIL and U.S. Route 1 to the north.
M3 consists of the area north of U.S. Route 1.
Zone N - Zona N consists of portions of the Town of Wate ~
ford and City of New London.
It is bounded on the north by the Town of Montville, en the west by Vauxhall Street Extension and Vauxhall Road, on the south by Interstate Route 95 and on the east by the Thames River.
There are three population centroids.
N1 and N2 are in New London and take an evacuation route to the north.
N3, located in Waterford, has a northwesterly evacuation route.
Zone 0 - Zone o consists of a portion of the Town of Montville.
It is bounded on the north by Black Swamp Road and Raymond Hill Road, on the west by Barnville Hill, on the south by the Town of Waterford, and on the east by the Thames River.
Zone P - Zone P consists of a portion of the Town of Groton.
It is bounded on the north by Interstate Route 95 and Buddington Road and Connecticut Route 184, on the west by the Thames River and City of Groton, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the east by Mumford Cove and Fort Hill Brook.
There are two population centroids with the same evacuation route.
Zone Q - Zone Q consists of a portion of the Town of Groton.
It is bounded on the north by Interstate Route 95, on the west by Mumford Cove and Fort Hill Brook, on the south by Long Island Sound, and on the east by the Mystic River.
There are two popu-
.i lation centroids, separated by Eccleston Brook, with different evacuation routes..
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It is bounded on the north by Interstate Route 95, on the west by the Thames River, on the south and east by the City of Groton.
There are two population centroids having the same evacuation route.
Zone S - Zone S consists of a portion of the Town of Groton.
It is bounded on the north by the Town of Imdyard, on the west by the Thames River, on the south by Interstate Route 95 and Connecticut Route 184, and on the east by Hemps *aad Brook.
Zone T - Zone T consists of a portion of the Town of Groton.
It is bounded on the north by the Town of Ledyard, on the west by Hempstead Brook and Suddington Road on the south by Connecticut Route 184 ud on the east by Haley Road.
Zone U - Zone U consists of a portion of the Town of Ledyard.
It is bounded on the north and east by the Town of Preston, Stoddard t
Wharf Road and Sandy Hollow Road, on the west by the Thames River, and on the south by the Town of Groton.
e __
CONCEPT OF EVACUATION The concept of evacuation in this assessment of the Millstone evacuation times assumes that everyone in the ten-mile radius will be evacuated outside of that ten-mile radius.
There is no assessment of the time to evacuate within the two-or the five-mile radius.
It is assumed that all people that live within the ten-mile radius will be evacuated along a specified route known to them.
The evacuation time will include the time from notification until the last vehicle crosses the ten-mile radius.
Notification of Evacuation There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation.
One event is the direct notification of public agencies, schools, major employees and other locations of large population concentrations.
The second event is the dissemination of the evacuation warning to the
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general population.
Both of these events must include instructions regarding the sectors to be evacuated.
The first event is assumed to be accomplished by telephone from the Emergency operating Center to the affected group.
Ideally the second event would be implemented by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning system by sirens or horns, supplemented by instructions over se),ected radio and T.V. Broadcast stations.
In the p icular site, no advanced system of this type is in place.
Therefore, the predominant mode of this notification is by use of vehicles and helicopters with mounted loudspeakers.
A specified message from these vehicles would indicate that an evacuation has been recommended and to turn on their radios for
i additional information.
Radio stations must be provided with complete, accurate and m ent information.
They should have prior ztine descriptions and repeat recommended routing information.
They should have phone numbers people can call should these people require special evacuation assistance or additional information.
Public Response Time There can be up to four activities preceding the evacuation from the home which can be statistically distributed in time:
(1) Receive warning;,(2) Leave work;'(3) Travel home; and, (4) Evacuate home.
Each of the response times may have different distributions, depending upon the particular scenario being assessed.
Receipt of Notification - Receipt of notification is assumed to approach a normal distribution in time; therefore, the accumulated probability approaches an "S"
curve.
This distributien can be appz;oximated by three straight lines.
One line, passing through the 50 percent, 16 percent and 84 One percent distributions, represents two time increments.
straight line from zero to 16 percent represents one time increment.
The third straight line from 84 to 100 percent represents one time increment.
It is assumed that the time increments are f.ve minutes, so the total time for receipt of notification is 20 minutes.
This distribution means that 16 percent will have been i
notified within the first five minutes, 50 percent will have been notified in ten minutes, 84 percent will have been notified in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will have been notified in 20 minutes.
(See Volume I for more detail.)
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Departure From Place of Work - Departure from the place of work is assumed to approach a normal distribution curve in the same manner as receipt of notification.
Distribution is approximated by three straight lines and four five-minute time increments.
The distribution assumes that 16 percent will depart from their place of work in five minutes, 50 percent will depart in ten minutes, 84 percent will depart in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will depart in 20 minutes (see volume I for more detail.)
Travel From Work to Home,- The time of travel to the home approaches normal distribution of time in the same manner as the two previous responses.
Under normal conditions this distribution assumes that 16 percent will travel to home in five minutes, 50 percent in 10 minutes, 84 percent in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will travel to home in 20 minutes.
This distribution is expanded in certain scenarios, specifically that of the adverse weather scenario (see Volume I for more detail).
Departure From Home - Departure from home also approaches a normal distribution in time and the accumulated probability approaches and "5" curve..The distribution is approximated by three straight lines in the same manner as the above three responses.
The activity is distributed over eight five-minute periods for a total of 40 minutes.
The distribution indicates that eight percent will depart from home in the first five minutes, 16 percent in ten minutes, 33 percent in 15 minutes, 50 percent.in 20 minutes, 67 percent in 25 minutes, 84 percent in 30 minutes, 92 percent in 35 minutes, and 100 percent vill have departed hczne within 40 minutes (see Volume I for further details.) i l
.- ~ _ _ _. - _ _ _, _, _
Evacuation Link / Node Network The evacuation routes fer each centroid has been manually established and coded for computer evaluation.
Figures 6, 7, 8 and 9 indicate the coded network and the evacuation route for each centroid.
Table 9 contains the network descriptions.
The table contains two node numbers for each and of a given link, the distance between nodes in miles, the assumed speed for that link, its total capacity in vehicles per hour in the direction of, evacuation, and the identity of the roadway.
For example, the first link in Table 9 is from Node 101 to Node'302.
The distance is 0.41 miles, the assigned speed is 30 miles per hour, the capacity is 1,300 vph, and the roadway segment is on State Route 154.
The values assigned to each link represent the best judgement of these factors considering roadway geometry, width, terrain and other factors.
Many of the evacuation zones are rather large and may have several centroids..These centroids associated with population centers and are located to provide for a logical evacuation of the zone.
The capacities established for each link are not the capacities that could be expected under normal circumstances.
The evacuation of a ten-mile area has all the vehicles headed in the same direction, with the possible exception of emergency vehicles coming into the area.
Because of the directional flow and controlled routings, lane capacities are generally larger than could.be expected under normal circumstances.
Another important factor that contributes to smoother flow and greater capacities is that*all drivers of vehicles on any roadway segment are of one accord and are headed for the same location.
j Generally, they are probably the most seasoned, experienced of the drivers in a household.
All drivers know that they must evacuate the area and cross the ten-mile zone.
i
Evacuation Network In developing the evacuation network, an extensive field reconnaissance of the area roadways was performed to determine the capabilities of the system to accommodate traffic evacuation conditions.
Every effort was made to maximize the use of the major roadway facilities.
In addition, certain roadway sections were avoided *here the roadway integrity is in question.
In this regard the roadway section of Connecticut Route 156 con-necting Waterford and Ninnuic (East Lyme) was not used in this evacuation plan.
This roadway section is a low level bridge over the Niantic River located about 1.3 miles north of the site.
This bridge is a restraint on travel in the area due to substandard geometric, horizontal / vertical gradient, and opera-tional conditions.
Operational speeds of about 15 miles per hour are prevalent.
Several roadway networks were tested prior to selecting the network presented in this report.
The initial network strived to utilize the major roadway facilities in uhe area and was continually modif'ied to m4"4=4ze delays.
As in the situation with East Lyme (Zone E), the population was divided into several evacuation routes to min 4m4ze delay and account for seasonal population variations.
El represents the year round population centroid and is assigned to a minimum delay evacuation route.
E2 and E3 are for a population cen+Jr (Rocky Neck State Park).
Due to extensive summer activity, however, it has become necessary to assign the resultant traffic to two district evacuation routes.
Evacuation officers will be required to assign traffic to the proper evacuation route based on lane use.
In addition, the evacuation network selected had to be a manageable system in terms of understanding the route pattern and ease of traversing the route for the evacuee..
In developing the evacuation network every effort was made to provide travel radially away from the site.
The network utilizes all types of roadways, major thoroughfares and local streets as needed.
Expressway facilities were used where available, but due to high population activity or lack of expressway major arterial, minor arterial, and in some cases well-known local roadways were used, as needed.
As previously stated, the EP: for Millstone includes 10 towns / cities in Connecticut.
Each emergency planning assigned a lotter designation for identification purposes.
Whcre multiple centroids were assigned in that zone the letter designation was suffixed with a number as in El, E2 and E3.
The evacuation network was assigned nodes and identification numbers at specific locations based on the following criteria:
e To identify the centroid connection to the evacuation route; e
Where a roadway changes its capacity capabilities; Where an. evacuation route crosses a planning zone; e
At the tered.nus of an evacuation route at the 10-mile radius; and, e
At the merge or diverge of an evacuation route.
The evacuation network was assigned numbers to. represent network nodes.
The link node network of routes from each centroid was numbered so that the evacuation route can be identified.
Table 8 identifies the evacuation route and link-node description for each centroid.
Table 9 defines' each link and identifies the roadway section and its present capacity, link distance and operating speed at capacity.
To utilize the Table, find centroid Al on Table 8.
The route description identifies the nodes 501 to 101 to 302. l.
Table 8 EVACUATION ROUTE DESC3tIPTION By Centroid and Links Millstone CENTSOID N0DE 1 M 2 M 3 NODE 4 E 5 E 6 E 7 m 9 M 9 m 10 M 11 A1 501 101 302 A2 502 103 304 31 503 105 106 107 308 92 504 109 107 308 C1 505 110 111 112 113 314 D1 506 115 116 317 32 507 116 317 E2 508 118 119 120 321 F1 509 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 331 G1 510 132 133 134 335 G2 511 136 337 R1 512 138 139 140 141 120 321 H2 513 139 140 141 120 321 Il 514 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 141 120-
' 321 12 515 149 145 146 147 140 141 120 321 J1 516 150 151 152 129 130 331 J2 517 213 214 215 154 355 i
K1 518 153 215 L1 519.
134 335 4
520 156 157 15 159 ide 161 162~
163 364 4
Table 8 (Continued) w risOID E 1 M2M3E4 M 5 m & M 7 m 8 M 9 M 10 M 11 M2 521 165 166 167 168 162 163 364 53 522 158 159 160 161 162 163 364 N1 23 169 170 171 172 173 130 331 N2 524 170 171 172 374 M3 C5 211 212 303 01 524 175 376 P1 527 177 178 179 140 381 F2 CS 179 180 381 31 52?
182 383 G2 530 184 385 R1 531 186 l'87 188 189 190 191 192 393 R2 532,
194 189 190 191 192 393 S1 533 1*5 196 397 il 534 198 399 U1 535 200 311 El 536 122 123 112 113 314 E3 537 118 111' 112 113 314 l
l N 4-
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l Table 9 WETWORK LINK' DESCRIPTION Millstone LIBK ANCLE #0E DIST SPED CAP NO K DIST SFED CAP LINK-IDENTIFICATION 101 302 0.41 30.0 1300 State Route 154 103 304 0.70 5.0 1200 State Route 69 105 106 2.83 3.0 1900 State Route 156 106 107 0.74 3C 0 1500 State Route 156 107 303 3.49 2.0 1800 State Route 156 109 107 0.29 E.0 1800 Lyme Street 110 111 0.34 35.0 1800
, State Route 156 111 112 2.34 30.0 1500 Four Mile River Road 112 113 2.19 25.0 1900 U.S. 1 113 314 2.30 30.)
1500 Town Water Road 115 116 2.56 30.0 1500 Grassy Hill Road 116 317 2.64 30.0 1500 Grassy Hill Road 113 111 0.75 E.0 1800 119 0.67
.$.0 4000 State Route 156-State Route d49 119 120 0.35 20 0 1500 WB on 3 amp I-95 120 321 5.46 45.0 4000 I-95 122 123 2.65 35.0 1500 Bridge Brook Rced 123 112 0.37 35.0 1800 U.S. 1 124 125 2.86 35 0
!!00 State Route 161 13 126 0.5 20.0 1500 EB on Ramp I-95 126 127 1.10 45.0 4000 I-95 127 128 0.22 20.0 1500 On Ramp State Route 52 128 129 2.12 45.0 4000
' State Route 52 129 130 2.57 45.0 4000 State Route 52 130 331 1.32 45.0 4000 State Route 52 132 133 0.58 35.0 1500 U.S. 1 133 134 5.77 30.0 1500 State Route 161 134 33 1.30 E.0 1500 State Route 85 136 337 3.73 30.0 1500 Beaver Brook Road 138 139 1.72 30.0 1300 Niantic River 3 bed 139 140 2.00 35.0 1800 U.S. 1 140 141 0.21 20.0 1500 WB on Ramp I-95 141 120 3.88 45.0 4000 I-95 142 143 2.52 30.0 1500 Great Neck Road 143 144 0.23
'35.0 1500 State Route 156 144 145 0.83 30.0 1300 State Route 156 145 146 0.95 35.0 1900 U.'S. 1 146 147 1.05 30.0 1300-Cross Road 147 148 0.12 20.0 1500 WB on Ramp I-95 148 141 2.33 45.0 4000 I-95 W5-l I
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. l Table 9 (Continued)
LINK ANODE E DIST SFED CAP W DIST SPED CAP LINK IDENTIFICATION idt 145 1.09 35.0 1500 U.S. 1 150 151 1.06 35.0 150; State Route 85 151 li: 2.4e 2.0 1500 State Route 85 152 129 0.07 20.0 150u NB on Ramp State Route 52 153 215 0.15 35.0 1500 State Route 85 154 25 2.71 30.0 1500 State Route 85 156 157 2.n 35.0 150; Cak Dale Road IF 158 0.!!
30.0 130.-
State Route 1 159 159 0.4C 25.0 120C State Route 624 159 160 0.30 30.0 1300 State Route 624 16C 161 0.00 2G.0
- 14m, EB on Ramp I-95 lol 16 0.35 45.0 600' I-95 12 163 1.61 45.0 10c?0 I-95 Ac3 364 4 08 45.0 6000 I-95 16!
166 0.60 30.0 1300 State Route 643 ido 167 0.50 35.0 EC State Route 643 167 168 0.a:
35.0 1500 State Route 643 161r 160 0.15 20.0 1500 EB on Ramp I-95 169 170 1 14 35.0 1500 Mohegan Avenue-Parkway 170 171 1 61 35.0 3400 State Route 32 171, 172 1.67 35.0 3400 State Route 32 172 ~ 173 0.83 45.0 1700 374 1.89 E.0 1500 State Route 693/ State Route 32 173 130 0.00 20.0 1500 On Ramp State Route 52 175 376 1.54 30.0 1500 State Route 163 177 176 3.02 30.0 1306 State Route 649 176 179 0.!3 E.0 1500 U.S. 1 179 180 1.35 3.0 180C U.S. 1 180 381 2.4o 30.0 1E Flanders Road 182 383 0.11 30.0 1500 State Route 215 184 385 1.23 E.0
- 1500 U.S. 1 16s 167 1.42 45.0 4000 State Route 649 187 186 0.22 20.0 1500 Ramp to U.S. 1 j
182 18' O.21 35.0 1500 U.S. 1 1
189 190 0.37.
2.0 1500 State Route 12 190 191 0.15 20.0 1500 Ramp to State Route 184 191 192 2.32 3.0 3000 State Route 184 192 393 1 17 E.0 1500 State Route 184 194 189 1.08 30.0 130C Broad Street 195 196 1 47 E.0 1500 State Route 12 196 397-2.23 35.0 1800 State Route 12 i -
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Table 9 (Continued)
LINK ANCDE NODE DIST SPEED CAP NODE DIST SPEED CAF LINK IDENTIFICATION State Route 117 199 399 14?
30.0 1500 200 311 1.15 30.0 1500 Long Rcad 21*
212 1.20 30.0 1500 Colchester Road 212 303 2.08 30.0 1500 Colchester Road Vauxhall Road-Street Extansion i
213 214 2 65 30.0 1500 214 215 2.5]
25 0 1500 Turner Road 215 154 0.75 35 0 1500 State Route 85 501 101 0.24 15.0 1300 Centroid Connector Al 502 105 0.01 15.0 1200 Centroid Connector A2 503 105 0.57 15.0 1800 Centroid Connector B1
- 04 109 0.33 15 0 1800 Centroid Connector B2 505 110 0.30 15.0 1800 Centroid Connector C EJ6 115 0.33 15 0 1500 Centroid Connector D1 507 11a 1.23 15.1 1500 Centroid Connector D2 509 118 0.51 25.0 4000 Centroid Connector E2 509 124 1.25 15.0 1800 Cantsoid Connector F 510 132 0.53 15.0 1500
- Centroid Connector G1 511 136 0.55 15.0 1500
- Centroid Connector G2 512 133 0.19 15 0
- 04 centroid Connector El 513 139 0.10 15.0 1800
- 2antroid Connector H2 14 142 0.46 15J 1500 m troid Connector Il 515 149 0.11 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector I2 516 150 0.05 15.0 1500 Centroid emanactor J1 517 213 1.25 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector J2 518 153 0.83 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector K 519 134 0.18 15.0 1500 Cant.roid Connector L CD 156 0.08 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector M1 El 165 0.14 15.0 1300 Centroid Connector M2 C2 158 0.20 15.0 1200 Centroid Connector M3 C3 169 0.04 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector El 524 170 0.11 a15.0 1500
>sntroid Connector 32 C5 211 0.25 15.0 1:00 Ntroid Connector N3 526 175 0.34 15.0 1500 Centroid Conneccor O C7 177 0.88 15.0 1300 -
Centroid Ennnector P1 1
CS 179 0.33 15.0 1800 Centroid Connector 72 C9 182 0.52
,15.0 1500 Centroid Connector Q1 530 184 1.80 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector Q2 531 184 0.20 15.0 1400 Centroid Fnnnector R1 532 194 0.50 15.0 1300 Centroid Connector R2 533 195 1.09 15.0 3000 Centroid Connector S 534 199 0.19 15.0 1500 Centroid Connector T 535.
200 0.19 15.0..
1500 Centroid Ca---'-tor U 534 122 1.23
.25.0 1400 Centroid Connector El 537 118 0.81 25.0 4000'
- 2antroid Chw E3.
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Utilizing Table 9,'ietwork LinR Description, a description of the route can be obtained as follows:
501 to 101 - Centroid Connector Al 101 to 302 - Connecticut Route 154.
Then for ::ene A1,' the population utilizes Connecticut Route 154 as the evacuation route.
The 300 series node designation identifies the limit of the evacuation route to the 10-mile radius.
The following assumptions wera utilized developing the link speeds and capacity.
Directional Flow - All roadways will operate as they do under present conditions.
In the case of a two-lane two-way f acility, the outbound lane will be utilized for evacuation with the inbcund lane used for emergency vehicles.
A four lane facility assumes two evacuation lanes and two emergency vehicle lanes.
Travel Sneeds - Speeds were assigned to each link depending
(
en the charact.or of the roadway.
Limited access roadway in this area were generally assigned at 45 M.P.H. with ramp spaeds at 20 M.P.H.
For two lane roadways, State Highways were assigned between 40 M.P.H. and 25 M.P.E. depending upon the prevailing roadway conditions.
Centroid connectors were considered as local access and assigned a speed of 15 M.P.H.
Capacities - Capacities were assigned to the evacuation network to reflect emergency conditions with traffic flowing 1
in one direction, occasional emergency vehicles opposing the traffic flow and problem areas controlled by special traffic features.
Under these conditions the following capacities were assigned:.
1.
Expressway - 2,000 vehicles per lane per hour; therefore two evacuation lanes will provide 4,000 vehicle capacity per hour.
2.
Two-lane Facilities - A capacity of 1,800-1,200 vehicles per lane per hour was assigned to these roadways varying from high-type roadways to local more constricted road-ways.
3.
Interchange Ramps - 1,500 vehicles per hour capacity.
Special Traffic Control Strategies - In order to attain mavimum capacity on the network, contre 11ing critical intersec-tion movements and providing direction for complex evacuauien routings are imperative.
Thus special traffic control strategies need to be developed and implemented.
In some instances major population centers are divided to avoid overloads to the network that would produce abnormally long delays.
These locations will require special handling to usure that motorists. utilize their assigned routing for i
evacuation.
Evacuation officers should be placed at locations where evacuation routes merge or diverge.
For example, this will be required at the two approach lanes, Rocky Neck State Parl in-nector at Connecticut Route 156.
The left lane, carrying E2 yopulation traffic will be directed to turn left onto Connecticut Route 156 while the right lane, carrying E3 population traffic will be directed to travel north to the Connecticut Turnpike.
l Traffic should be split evenly between the two exit lanes and evacuation routes.
As there are other popular summer resorts in the area, special facilities and evacuation officers should be located at these areas to assist the transient (daily) popu-lation.
l._
Special Transportation Requirements Transportation requirements for special problem groups, such as non-car owning families, handicapped persons, hospitals, schools, prisons, etc. are not included in this evacuation time assessment.
The assumption is that provisions for these people will be provided in the development and implementation evacuation plan for Millstone.
O 9
1 I i e
1
}
EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT As previously discussed, the evacuation time assessment has assumed that the entire family will evacuate as one unit in one vehicle.
The assessment time includes the mobilization time and travel time required to evacuate the 10-mile radius.
The mobilization time consists of allocating time for:
e Notification; Leaving work or place of business / school; e
Travelling home (including the time to pick up school e
children or other family members at designated distri-bution centers; and, Evacuating home.
e Four scenarios were analyzed in assessing the evacuation time:
1.
Normal Workday - includes people at work, children in school, and year round permanent population; 2.
Nighttime - assumes most people are at home and year round population 3.
Summer Recreation Season - includes Scenario 1, in addition to summer residents and transient population;
- and,
- t..
Adverse Weather Conditions - includes Scenario 1 in addition to adverse weather conditions.
The adverse, worst case condition, for Millstone is assumed to be in the summer season with a peak resident population and transient visitors.
I;ormal Workday Table 10 presents the travel time estimates for each centroid to evacuate the 10-mile radius.
The most critical area within the 10-mile radius is in the most southerly section of New London.
4 I
1 The total evacuation time varies from a low of 77 minutes in the Old Saybrook area to a high of 184 minutes in southern New London.
The estimated traffic volumes on each link is shown in Table 11 for this scenario.
Nighttime Condition This condition assumes that most people are at home; there-fore. only notification time and the time to evacuate home prevail under this assessment.
As the travel time associated with the work or school trip is not included in this analysis, the time to evacuate the EPZ for each zone centroid is reduced by apprecimately 15 minutes for centroid M1 as compared to the normal weekday.
Specific values for each centroid are shown in Table 10.
Traffic volumes are the same as normal workday.
The maximum evacuation time is 169 minutes for centroid M1 which compares to 184 minutes for normal wor) day.
Summer Season As a result of the considerable increase in the summertime population due-to both added residents and transient visitors an analysis was performed for this condition-As noted in Table 10 a maximum evacuation time of 319 minutes results for centroid M1.
This large increase in population for this zone frem 5,445 on normal workday to 13,515 during the summer (see Table 3).
Other zones have considerable increases in population during the Any significant increase will increase the evacuation summer.
times.
1
Table 10 EVACUATION TIMES By Centroid NORMAL SUMMER ADVERSE NIET WEEKDAY TIME WEATHER TIME
- D T.D T3E
.inTROD 73E OF.ATED 73E 2DITROI!
7:E.
11
.~7 41 77 A1 104 Al e2 22
~7 42
~7 A2 103 A2 62 P1 39 31 39 31 131 81 74 32 32 32 3-B2 u7 82 e7 C
4 1
- 3:
21
!!5 c1
?!
~ ~.' 1 38 15e Li C3 D1 73 D2 70 32 35 02 99 22 C1 E2 Se E2 95 C
C3 C
71 F1 102 F1 138 F1 143 F1 97 31 133 G1
'O 31
- ?4 _ =, G1
!!9 a.
- 4 32
+
4:
.1?
J2 69 H1 96 H1 106 H1 142 H1 31 92 H2 102 42 134 H2 77 Il
!!2 Il 19~
Il 191 Il 135
- ?
'50 l'1 m
!?
tis 1
100 J1 101
- l G
J1 87 C
97 J2 97 O
147 J2 92 s
'1 22 s1 92 K1 114 K1 67
'1 100 c1 114 1
3 L1 90 n
134 -
11 Ito-204 -
M1 16 ' -
32 C5 M2 127 82 i!O l M2 112 4
164 M3 175 M3 192 M3 1:1
.11 87 N1 37
!;1 1:3 N1 73 12 136
=2 13~
156 42 121
- J 3*
C r
v3 it!
W3 67 01 79 01 79 01
- 09 01 64
.1 39 k1 C2 21 136 P1 94 1
22 M
112 P2 118 P2 84 01 73 41 94 31 104 31 64 32 84 22 94 32 1:3 02 49 41 C7 R1 130 R1 143 41 112 42 106 R2 107 C
134 R2 89 il 190
$1 192 S1 196 S1 165 71 102 71 103 il 119 71 90 U1' "
.05 91 tea U1 123 U1 93 i
99 El 134 El 139 El 33 E3 95 E3 181 D
135 O
SD i
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Adverse Weather Conditions Utilizing winter population conditions and due to adverse winter conditions, the assumption of reducing travel speed by 50 percent and increasing the work to home trip by 100 percent was considered.
Relative to Fishers Island and Pltru Island in Long Island Sound, parts of these islands are w3. thin the 10-mile radius of Millstone.
Although the island populations could conceivably relocate to the sections not within the 10-mile radius, total evacuation of the islands were considered.
Table 10 indicates considerable evacuation time increases.
The mavimum time is 204 minutes for zone M1.
Fishers Island - Fishers Islard is located about 7.5 miles southeast of Millstone with the 10-mile radius enveloping about 60 percent of the island.
It is assumed that island population will rely on the Fishers Island Ferry Service District for transportation to evacuate.
According to the Storch Feasibility Report, it will require'8 or 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> to evacuate Fishers Island based on use of one ferry and not counting privately owned boats.
With the availability of the Orient Point-New London Ferry, this evacuation time could be considerably reduced, as stated in the report.
During an actual emergency, certain privately owned boats would be used.
This would reduce the evacuation time even more.
Plum Island - Plum Island is located about 9 miles south of Millstone with the 10-mile radius covering about 70 percent l
of the island.
It is assumed that island pcpulation will rely on the Orient (Long Island) Ferry Service for transportation to evacuate.
According to the Storch Feasibility Report, evacuation j
could take place withhi 45 minutes.
l.
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e:
l As stated in the Storch Feasibility Report, it is their investigations with ferry line personnel indicate that inclement weather could increase the time for each f8-7 trip by 10 *w 15 minutes.
O I
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_ _ _