ML19345B709

Slide Presentation from 800320 Meeting Re Plant Risk Assessment

ML19345B709
Person / Time
Site:	Big Rock Point File:Consumers Energy icon.png
Issue date:	03/20/1980
From:	CONSUMERS ENERGY CO. (FORMERLY CONSUMERS POWER CO.)
To:
Shared Package
ML19345B708	List: ML19345B707 ML19345B709
References
NUDOCS 8012020384
Download: ML19345B709 (23)

Text

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BIG ROCK POINT RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT MEETING AGENDA MARCH 20, 1980 WASH. DC I.

INTRODUCTION KD BRIENZ0 1:00 PM i

II.

CONSUMERS POWER COMPANY RB DeWITT 1:05 POS! TION ON BIG ROCK POINT III.

PROPOSED ACTION PLAN TO FW BUCKMAN 1:20 ACHIEVE COMPANY OBJECTIVES i

j IV.

PROBABILISTIC METHODOLOGY PJ WOOD 1:35 i

I V.

LICENSING AND NRC RW HUSTON 1:50 PARTICIPATION VI.

CONCLUDING REMARKS RB DEWITT 2:00 i

FW BUCKMAN 1

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INCENTIVES FOR CONTINUING TO OPERATE BRP 4

i ONE OF THE-FEW OPERATING PLANTS AT MIDPOINT OF DESIGN LIFE f

ACTIVE DOE. LWR FUEL RESEARCH PROGRAM i

PLANT DISPLACES 3,000 BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY REPLACEMENT POWER MUST BE TRANSMITTED OVER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES BIG ROCK HAS OPERATED SAFELY FOR OVER 17 YEARS e

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COST OF DEFERRED ITEMS i

PROPOSAL DEFERRAL COST (THOUSANDS OF D0LLARS)

POST-INCIDENT SHIELDING 40,000 TECHNICAL SUPPORT CENTER 4,000 POST-INCIDENT SAMPLING 525 ALTERNATE SHUTDOWN PANEL 250 CONTAINMENT HYDR 0 GEN MONITOR 50 RECIRCULATING PUMP TRIP 1,000 OTHER ATWS MODIFICATIONS / ANALYSES UNKNOWN METEOROLOGY TOWER 300 RELOCATE OFF-SITE EMERGENCY UNKNOWN RESPONSE CENTER

COST OF NON-DEFERRED ITEMS i

j O

j MODIFICATION COST (THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS)

REACTOR COOLANT HIGH POINT VENT 36 i

ADDITIONAL INSTRUMENTATION 300 FIRE PROTECTION 840 1

i ENHANCEMENT OF POST ACCIDENT 1,300 OPERABILITY f

SEIS.MIr ANALYSIS (SEP) 1,400 HISH ENERGY LINE BREAK (SEP) 500 i

OBJECTIVES OF THE EVALUATION 1

IDENTIFY THOSE ASPECTS OF BIG ROCK POINT THAT CONTRIBUTE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO OVERALL PLANT RISK IF NECESSARY, PROPOSE PLANT MODIFICATIONS THAT WILL REDUCE THE IMPACT OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTORS TO OVERALL PLANT RISK TO AN ACCEPTABLE LEVEL DETERMINE THE COST OF THE REQUIRED MODIFICATIONS DECIDE IF THE PRICE FOR CONTINUED OPERATION OF BIG ROCK POINT IS JUSTIFIED i

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BRP RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT ORGANIZATION PROJECT MANAGER FW BUCKMAN REVIEW GROUP PROJECT l

C00RDP.'ATOR KE BRIENZ0

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PLANT STAFF CONSULTANT GENERAL OFFICE' LICENSING SUPPORT SAI S0PPORT GROUP PJ WOOD GROUP RW HUSTON,

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i ITEMS PROPOSED TO BE DEFERRED POST INCIDENT SHIELDING 4

TECHNICAL SUPPORT CENTER POST INCIDENT SAMPLING SYSTEM ALTERNATE SHUTDOWN PANEL CONTAINMNET HYDROGEN MONITOR ATWS MODIFICATIONS AUTOMATIC ISOLATION OF EMERGENCY CONDENSER INSTALLATION OF INTERLOCKS ON RECIRCULATION LOOPS I

CONSTRUCTION OF A METEOROLOGICAL TOWER 9

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i ITEMS FOR WHICH WORK IS ONG0ING t

REACTOR COOLANT HIGH POINT VENT I

IMPROVED INSTRUMENTATION CAPABILITY FIRE PROTECTION MODIFICATIONS ENHANCEMENT OF POST-ACCIDENT OPERABILITY j

SEISMIC ANALYSIS HIGH ENERGY LINE BREAK EVALUATION 1

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i DEVELOP PROBABLISTIC MODEL v

USE MODEL TO IDENTIFY RISK OUTLIER CPC0 CONTINUED SAI UTLIERS OPERATION YES NRC ACCEPTABL JUSTIFIED INPUT

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PROPOSE CHANGES THAT WILL REDUCE IMPACT OF OUTLIERS u

ESTIMATE COST OF PROPOSED CHANGE

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I TECHNICAL APPROACH TO THE PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE I,

BIG ROCK POINT PLANT I

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PAUL J. WOOD SCIENCE APPLICATIONS, INC, MONR0EVILLE, PA.

i MARCH 20, 1980 i.

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PRESENTATION CONTENT l

0 WHY RE-EVALUATE BRP SAFETY USING PRA O

STUDY OBJECTIVE e

TECHNICAL APPROACH 0

FORM AND USES OF RESULTS I

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1 WHY RE-EVALUATE SAFETY?

8 18 YRS OF OPERATION WITHOUT SERIOUS ACCIDENT 0

RECENT SERIOUS SAFETY CONCERNS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOLLOWING TMI-2 ACCIDENT O

EXTENSIVE ARRAY OF CHANGES REQUESTED BY NRC 0

OBVIOUS QUESTION:

DO SERIOUS SAFETY DEFICIENCIES EXIST?

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1 ElllSE EfB AS EVALUATION BASIS?

8 SYSTEMATIC AND COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SPECTRUM 0F POTENTIAL ACCIDENTS AT A PLANT e

THOROUGH DESCRIPTION OF BOTH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND CONSEQUENCES OF POTENTIAL ACCIDENTS 8

SITE CHARACTERISTICS EXPLICITELY TREATED 0

INCORPORATES SYSTEM AS WELL AS HUMAN INVOLVEMENT IN PLANT SAFETY 0

HISTORICAoLY ROOTED IN BEST ESTIMATE ACCIDENT i

PHENOMENA AMALYSIS 4

0 USEFUL IN CONTINUING EVALUATION OF PLANT SAFETY ISSUES 4

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OBJECTIVE DE BIE RQE EDINT STUDY EMPLOY THE TECHNIQUES OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT l

(PRA) TO SUPPORT'THE CONTINUED SAFE OPERATION OF THE BIG ROCK POINT NUCLEAR PLANT I

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ELEMENTS DE TECHNICAL APPROACH i

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PLANT MODELING 8

PLANT DATA EVALUATION lj e

ACCIDENT AND CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS O

TRACK PLANT AGING PROCESS (PR03 RAM DEFINITION) d i

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STAGES DE PLANT MODELING EFFORT ACTIVITY ILMESCALE SUPPORTED ACTIVITY 1.

PLANT FAILURE 2 WEEKS e

CATEGORIZE PROBLEM AREAS ANALYSIS e

DEFINE DATA NEEDS (EVENT TREES e

DEFINE RE0'D ENGR, ANALYSIS AND DEPENDENCY 0

SUPPORT RELEASE CATEGORY DEF.

DIAGRAMS) e SUPPORT CONCEPTUAL DESIGN M0DS.

2.

PRA MODEL 3 MONTHS e

CURRENT PLANT RISK ASSESSMENT DEVELOPMENT &

8 SUPPORT PRELIMINARY DESIGN QUANTIFICATION MODS.

3.

PRA MODEL 3 MONTHS e

DEFINE ADDITIONAL RE0'D ENGR.

SENSITIVITY STUDIES ANALYSIS FOR PLANT e

REFINE RELEASE CATEGORY MODIFICATIONS DEFINITION 0

SUPPORT VALUE-IMPACT ANALYSIS

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DATA EVALUATION f

i GATHER COMPARE DEFINE DEFINE AND PROCESS EXPERIENCE DATA PLANT

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T0 GROWTH AND NEEDS SPECIFIC INDUSTRY ROOT CAUSE DATA COMPOSITE _

ANALYSIS PROGRAM h,

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FAILURF MODEL ANALYSIS CONSTRUCTION AND i

'l QUANTIFICATION 4

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i ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS ELEMENTS:

0 RE-DEFINE RELEASE CATEGORIES 0

EVALUATE SOURCE TERMS O

CALCULATE RELEASE CATEGORY PROBABILITIES I

e MODEL SITE CHARACTERISTICS (METEOROLOGY

& DEMOGRAPHY) i i

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OUTPUTS:

0 RADIONUCLIDE RELEASE DISTRIBUTIONS 8

HEALTH CONSEQUENCE DISTRIBUTIONS 1

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E021 Of RESULTS 8

CORE DAMAGE PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAINTIES e

DEFINITION OF DOMINANT SEQUENCES BY RELEASE CATEGORY 8

DEFINITION OF FAILURES CONTRIBUTING TO DOMINANT SEQUENCES S

DISTRIBUTIONS OF RADIONUCLIDE RELEASES I

DISTRIBUTIONS OF TYPICAL HEALTH EFFECTS

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USEQERESULTS DOMINANT SEQUENCES DEFINE RISK OUTLIERS DOMINANT FAILURES SUPPORT CORRECTIVE ACTION DEFINITION l

CORE DAMAGE PROBABILITY' COMPARE T0 "NON-ACCEPTANCE" RELEASE DISTRIBUTIONS F

F CRITERIA SITE CHARACTERISTICS 2

PROBABILISTIC MODELS DEFINE FUTURE DATA NEEDS EVALUATED DATA EVALUATE ACCIDENT SEQUENCE PRECURSORS e

DEPICTION OF PLANT AGING PROCESS 1

FORMATDERESULTS:

DOMINANT ACCIDENT SEQUENCES B1 RELEASE CATEGORY RELEASE CATEGORY 1

2 3

4 5

TW-a TW-Y' TW-Y A

2x10-7 3x10-6 1x10-5 1x10-4 TC-a TOUV-Y' TC-Y 1x10-7 8x10-8 1x10-5 TWUV-a TOUV-Y 5x10-9 4x10-7

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REVIEW GROUP i

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ORGANIZATION GROUP MEMBER r

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. SYSTEMATIC EVALUATION PROGRAM WJ BECKIUS (GO)

HEALTH PHYSICS R SINDERMAN (GO)

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ACCIDEN1 & TRANSIENT ANALYSIS DJ VANDFWALLE (GO)

CORE PHYSICS BD WEBB (GO)

GENERATING PLANT MODIFICATIONS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME PLANT LICENSING DE DEM00R (BRP)

NRC UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME 2

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