ML19338F094
| ML19338F094 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Allens Creek File:Houston Lighting and Power Company icon.png |
| Issue date: | 10/01/1980 |
| From: | Dick J OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19338F070 | List: |
| References | |
| ISSUANCES-CP, NUDOCS 8010070517 | |
| Download: ML19338F094 (4) | |
Text
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J UNITED STATES OT AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of IlOUSTON LIGHTING & POWER COMPANY Docket No.
(Allens Creek Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 1)
AFFIDAVIT OF JAMES W. DICK STATE OF TENNESSEE COUNTY OF ROANE I, James Dick, of lawful age, being first duly sworn, upon my oath certify that I have reviewed and am thoroughly familiar with the statements contained in my attached affidavit which addresses intervenor Clarence Johnson's contention regarding the economics of natural gas generation as an alternative to the proposed Allens Creek Nuclear Generating Station. All statements contained therein are true and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief.
W James W. Dick Subscribed and sworn to before me this i day of O cYo b, 1980.
w_
Not Public in and for Roane County, Tennessee P.*/ Cov.mbsic.n cypires 1l23l82 8010_0705/7
10/1/80 Affidavit of Jamen U. Dick i
_in Opposition to Motion for Summary Disposition of TEXPIRC Contention 8 As indicated in my resumd which is attached, I have a B.S. and M.S.
degree in Economics.
I am presently employed as a research associate in the Energy Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
It is my responsibility to provide economic analysis for environmental impact statements. My f'
previous experience in this aren includes analysis of the need for power i
generating capacity.
I Based on my review of Clarenec~ Johnson's comparative analysis of the economic costs of nuclear generation versus gas generation, I do not believe
)
that Mr. Johnson has demonstrated that a natural gas generating plant would 1
he a viabic alternative to the proposed Allens Creek Nuclear Generating i
~
Station for the follcwing reasons:
1.
I have not donc a detailed assessment of the economic assumptions used in Mr. Johnson's analysis, however, there does not appear to be a clear basis for support of some of his assumptions.
For instance, the assumption that the average capacity factor for the proposed nuclear power plant will be 45% over the life of the plant l
seems too low. According to a survey presented in the April 1980 issue of Power Engineering, the cumulative life-time load factor for all boiling water nuclear reactors in the U.S. was 58%.
In 1978 i
the five largest U.S. plants of this type (all over 1000 MWe) had i
load factors ranging from 59% to 75%. Another assumption which seems open to question is that the plant's construction costs will i
escalate by about 69% over the construction period. This rate of escalation seems excessive.
In addition to questions concerning the appropriateness of these assumptions, the analysis is sketchy -
and should be more explicitly developed if it is to be properly evaluated.
For instance, the_ general price Icyc1 which was assumed i
for 1985 is not presented, therefore, the estimates of fuel prices
)
and capital costs cannot be compared with other studies.
2 2.
In an attempt to assess other economic comparisona of nuclear and gas for baseload generatlon, I could not find anything which would indicate that natural gan is being seriously considered as an alternative for baseload generation of electricity.
The present national policy as set forth in the "Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Une Act of 1978" prohibits the use of natural gas as a primary energy source in any new electric plant. Even though this Act includen provisions for an exemption, the uncertainty involved in gnir.ing an exemption, the uncertainty with regard to maintaining the exemption over the Jife of the plant, and the uncertainty of the f uture price and availability of natural gas makes the natural gas option seem unrealistic for baseload generation.
e
RESUME James W. Dick 122 Nebraska Born: tiay 15, 1949 Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830 Single Phone:
Bus.
615) 574-5202 U. S. Citizen Home 615) 482-7496 Professional Interests Economic and social issues related to natural resources in general and ener-gy resources specifically.
I am particularly interested in institutional responses to abrupt changes in the conditions w iich influence economic growth.
Education B.S. Economics, Purdue University,1971.
Co~ncentration in Personnel Management.
M.S. Economics, Colorado State University,1976. Concentration in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics.
Experience Research Economist, Energy Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. January 1978 to present.
Work on projects related to future regional and national use of electrical energy.
An important part
'of this work has been in conjunction with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's licensing procedures.
Specifically it has involved economic analysis of the need for site-specific nuclear power plants.
This analysis involved an appli-cation of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's State-Level Econometric Forecasting Model to assess the future demand for electricity.
Executive Policy Aid with the South Dakota State Planning Eureau, Pierre, i
July 1976 to January 1978.
Work in applied policy research including developing policy recommendations for the executive and legislative branches. Also reviewing and commenting on State plans and federal grant requests.
Internship with the U. S. Bureau of Land Management in Riverside, California.
November 1975 to February 1976.
Written report on the socio-economic impacts of a proposed oil-fired electrical generating station.
Academic Achievements
--Dean's. List Fall of 1969, Purdue University.
-- Full Pass" in Comprehensive Examination in Economic Theory, Colorado State University,,1974.
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