ML19326B183

Infant Mortality & Nuclear Power Generation

ML19326B183
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Issue date:	10/18/1970
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APPENDIX III i

THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS POOR QUALITY PAGES Infant l'.ortality cr.d lluclear l' c:cr Cancration Ernest J. Sterngicss Donarte:nt of P.adiology

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University of Pittsburgh

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October 10, 1970 i

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Until a few years'ago r.o direct evidence had been available on the health effects of radiation in man at the icw levels and low dose-rates encountered frem. nuclear weapons fallout or peace-tir.ie operation of

. nucicar power reactors. The present note presents data indicating that serious effects on human health such es sharp increases in infant mortality appear to have occurred frcm the, radioactive gases released in the course of the' normal operation of ccamarcial nuclear power reactors generating electricity.

The evidence consists of. an analysis of the changes in mortality rates of infants that died befcre reaching the age of 1 year in the area surrour. ding the Dresden nuclear power station located near !! orris, Illinois, 50 miles south-west of Chicago.

Dresden I is a boiling rater reactor (EU.1) that has been operating

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since 1959, with a licensed power of 700 thermal megawatts and an g

ciectrical output of 210 megawatts.

It uses a single coolant loop in which the steam generated by the nuclear fuel is taken directly~ outside 4

the containment vessel to drive a steam-turbine. As described in a I'

detailed study published in P. arch 1970 by the Bureau of Radiological

' Health of the U.S. Department of !! Elf (CRH/CER 70-1),(I)the non-condensible fission product and activation gases in'the coolant are released from a stack after a hold-up time of only about 20 minutes. The principal

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gases released are Vrypton-87 and 88 and Xenon 135 and 138, with half-lives of. 76 minutes, 2.8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br />, 9.1 hours1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />, and 17 minutes respectively-.

Since 1961, tile total annual gascous vaste discharges have ranged from 34,800 to E00,000 curies in 1C09, ccmpared with a licensed maximum t

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curies, or very' much greater tnan the ar. nut.1 reicasc of 22,000,000 discharges of 0.001 to 0.350 curies from the submarine-type, proccarized 0

watcr reactor (P',g) at.Shippingport, Pennsylvania, that uses a separa sccondary coolent locp to limit the escape of fission products into the environmant.

1967-68.-then As reported in the lieu publication, during the years curies, -he radiatior.-

,,the' total annual discharges viere 2/,0,C00 to 250,000 ranged from do'sc rates directly under the plume 1-2 km from the plar.:

~ ~ '1'3 to t,0'uR/hr, corresponding to 114 mr,to 350 mr por year.> When averaged over 2 weeks by means of +.hermoluminescent dosimeters, the dose rate was found to be between 2 and 3 pR/hr above the natural background On an annual basis, this is a dose between 17 and 26 me, of 9 pR/hr.

compared with the natural background coso of E3 mr per year in the area.

The plume of radioactive gas could be identified as far away as 15 km or 9.4 miles north-east frca the stack, where it resulted in a dose-rat'e of 22mr/ year during a typical 10-minute measurement.

These dose-rates may be compared with the maximum value of 56 mr/ year

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(2) measured at the nearby Argonne National Laboratory by P.E. Gustafson from fission products in the ground durir.g the peak of nuclear weapons testing in 1963, and th'e maxiqum permissible dose of 170 mr per year to the averag'e population according to the pr'esent Federal Radiation Guide These local, dose-rates are more tha. 10,000 icvels accepted by the AEC.

times higher than the average dose.-rate from all reactor operations to the U.S. public as a whole.of about 0.001 mr por year cited by the

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AEC (3)

In 111invis during-the mid-1960's infant mortality had reached icvels about 60" in excess of expectations based on the trend prior to lirge-j

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N-scale testing (Dulletin of Atomic Scientists, December 1969).b)Since the dose-rates from the gases cmitted by the Dresden reactor are of

, comparable magnitude, i.t appears that significant increases in infant

• mortality might be detectable in the areas dowr.uind frem the' prevailing o.,.-

' westerly winds that should not be observed in the upwind direction.

'Furthemore, since about two-thirds of the population of Illinois, or sone G.6 million people, live within a radius of 50 miles from the

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reactor, the infant nortality rates for Illinois as a whole should show increases and' decreases folicwing the rises and declines of the short-lived annual gascous activity released into the air.

That such a peak in infant mortality did in fact occur following the peak in the radioactive cases discharged nay be seen frca Figure 1, where the infant mortality rates for Illinois have been plotted together with those for a comparable large northern urban state, namely !!cu York.

Also shown in this figure is the annual amount of radioactivity discharged s

into the air from the Dresden reactor as reported in another recently

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published !! Ell study (BRil/ DER 70-2)(5),

. Examination of Figure 1 shows that in 1958,'just prior to the start-

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up of the Dresden Reactor, the states of Illinois and flew Yori had closely similar infant mortality rates of 24.9 and 24.5 per 1000 live births respectively.

It is of interest that Illinois actually showed a lower death rate than I:cu York in 1952 when localized fallout from the

.1 large Russian Il-tests in 1961-02 occurred in the New York area,

llowever, in 1964, a year after the rapid rise in caission from Dresden, the mortali'ty rate 'for Illinois began a sharp climb while that in flew York began to' decline, giving rise to a period when the Illinois infant

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-5' 4-death-rates exceeded those for flew York by 2.7 per 1000 births in 1968, with an absolute peak of ?.5.6 per 1000. births in :1965. This was a rate higher.than encountered in Illinois in the eleveri prcceeding years, despite howy flevada testir.g during this period.

This rise of infant mortality in Illinois after the test-ban had como

...into offcet in 1963 must be contrasted with the decline in fleu York and all other urban areas of the llorth, a situation that has now led Illinois

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to become the state'of highest infant mortality among all the states in the entire florth-East and tiprth-Cen;;ral regions of the U.S.

It should be noted that although a nuclear reactor began operating in itew York

. State 20 miles north of f!cu Vork City in 1962, it was a pressurized Dater type (PilR) with annual gaseous caissions typically 10,000 times less than those for the Dresden reactor.

If this rise for Illinois as a whole relative to !!cw York and all other states of the north is causally'related to the gascous caission from the Dresden BWR reactor, Vl then the difference in mortality rates should be directly related to the i

annual amounts of short-lived radioactive gases discharged.

That this does indeed appear to be the case is shown in Figure 2 where the difference I

'in infant mortality rates between !!cw York and Illinois has been plotted against the amount of radioactivity discharged.

Least-square fits for the two periods 1963-67 and 1953-1968 have been calculated, showing a cicar positive association between radiation dose and effect on infant mortality.

A similai direct corrolation was found to exist for death-rates 1

due to respira' tory diseases other than pneumonia and influenza for all age groups in Illinois relative to 1050 and the cmount of radioactive gas r

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o discharged, llhile during the decade from 1949 to 1959 these diseases, which include emphysema and b'ronchitis, increased less than 10% in Illinois, they rose 75% between 1959 and 1966 in direct proportion to the amount of radioactive gas discharged.

Furthermore, while Illinois respiratory death-rates rose 75",, they increased by only 40% and 47% in heavily polluted Pennsylvania and flew York._ In Figure 3, the difference in the relative -

increase of respiratory disease deaths other tilan pneumonia and influenza has been plotted together with the annual gaseous releases frc.n Dresden.

It is evident that the death-rate increased at about the same rate as the gaseous emission, with a time-delay of one to two years.

A more stringent test may be obtained by examining the relative changes in infant mortality for the counties it. mediately adjacent to the one in which the reactor is located, and to compare the changes in the counties located downuind with those upuind as well as with similar counties more than 40 miles away to the north and west as controls, b

i Figure 4 shows a map of the counties in northern Illinois together with their total populations in 1964, the year prior to the peak caissions from e

i the Dresden reactor located in Grundy county.

The figures for infant i'

' mortality as well as the numbers of live births and infant mortality rates i

.for the years 1964 and 1966 taken from the U.S. Vital Statistics are l

listed in Table I for Grundy and the five adjacent counties, as well as for six control counties located to the west and north-west that do not border on the Illinois river into which liquid offluent is discharged.

The year 1964 is the year following a minimum in the gaseous activity released, just prior to the sharp rise in 1964-65. The bar-graph of of Figure 5 indicates t'he percent changes in infant mortality by 1966 relative to 1934 for the ci:: adjacent and the six control counties.

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Inspection reveals that cmong the six nearest counties, Grundy, the county in which the reactor is located, shows the greatest increase of infant mortality rates, namely 1415 in excess of'the 1966 rate.

Next in increased rate is Livingston, to the south with a rise of 140%,

followed by Kankakee to the south-east with a rise of 43%.

Will to the

.. -north-east showed only a 5", rise, tihile LaSalle to the west actually showed a small decline of 7% and Kendal to the north registered a decline.of 21%.

This tendenc'y for upuind c.ounties to show declines such.as took place nearly overywhere else in the U.S. and all over the world since 1964 is confirmed by the bar-graph for the six upwind control counties more than t.0 miles away, namely Lee, Knox, Stephens, Henry, Uinnebago and Ogle, where only the last n2med showed an increase.

The probability of obtaining this result by chance along may be i

shown to be less than 1 in 200 by applying a simple statistical ranking b

test, and using the expectation that the downwind counties adjacent to Grundy should show increases rather than decreases in mortality' rates by 1966 A similar test applied to the yearly excess mortality rates for l'

Illinois relative-to ?!ew York for the two 5 year periods before and after the sharp rise in emission which began in 1964 gives a probability of less than 1 in 250 that the observed' ten year pattern of excess mortality rates in Illinois relative to icw York would arise by pure citance alone.

Inasmuch as these two tests are independent, the likelihood that both of these results are the result of mere chance fluctuation must

.be regarded as much lower than for either of these tests alone.

The likelihood that a causal relationship exists is further increased by the fact that data published in June 1970 by Dr. Alice Stewart of 8

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i Oxford liniversity in the British medical journal " Lancet" ( indicates that the htman embryo in the first three,conths of its developn.ent appears to be some 500 times as sensitive for the induction of icukemia and other cancers as the mature adult, and that cancor incidence was

.directly proportional to the x-ray dose roccived.

Dr. Stewart's study involvad scme 19.5 million children born in England and llales between 1943 and 1955, of.which some 13,407 develooed cancor before age 10.

Dr. Stewart concluded that a dose of o.11y 1 rad or 1,000 mr, given to a million infants just prior to birth in th'e course of pelvimetry, resulted in 300 to 800 additional leukemia and other cancer cases over a period of 10 years, compared with a spontaneous rate of about 700 per million births.

l! hen the x-rays had been given in the first three months of pregnancy, as happened in about 3% of the cases, the

-risk increased 15 fold, corresponding to a dose of only 80 mr needed to h,

double the normal cancer mortality rate among the children.

I, Since for mature adults, a dose of 1 rad leads t'o only about 2 cases 1

per year of leukemia per million individuals irradiated ( )or to 20 cases l

over period of 10 years corresponding to a " doubling dose" of 50 to 100 ads (500,000 to 100,000 mr), it appears that the early embryo is much more severely affected by radiation than the adult, in agreement with observations on laboratory animals.

Yet it was in tl$e basis of the low sensitivity of,the adult that.the present radiation standards were developed in the 1950's before Dr. Stewart's early data (0} had been confirmed in 1962 by the work of Dr. Brian 11acMahon at the liarvard School of-Public ifcalth (9).

i The measured radiation dose rates in the range of 10 to 300 mr per year downwind from the Dresden reactor could well have resulted in three-months doses of 2 ~to 75 mr to the early cabryo during its most critical phase of

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I development.

Since in any five week period the present ACC regulations allow a maximum dose cqual to the full annual amount of 500 mr to any individual in the general population, thay imply that a six-fold increase in childhood can,cor and leukemia is an acceptabic risk to the population

, in return for the benefit of nucicar electric power generation.

The measured doses do not take into account the various biological concentratior..

mechanisms in the organs of the mother and the developing infant in utero for the radioa'ctive cesium, strontium,and yttrium daughter products among the rare gases emitted item the reactor.

It appears reasonable to expect that effects on the chrcmosomes of the embryonic cells which lead to undardevelcpment and reduced ability to fight off respiratory and childhecd infections are produced at about the same doses as chromosemal changes that icad to cancer development.

,0n this basis, the radiation levels produced by localized weapons fallout or reactor operations measured for the case of Dresden and other reactors I'

5 that emit large amounts of gaseous activity are of a magnitude sufficient to explain the observed rises in infant mortality.

The excess infant mortality in Illinois over that in New York leads l

to an estimated number of about 2,500 infants that died above normal

' expectations in Illinois over a ten year period between 1959 and 1968.

In view of the likelihood that this represents a causal effect, it would appear to be necessary to discontinue operation of the Dresden

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reactor, all other reactors of similar types such as those located in Humboldt, California and-Charlevoix, Michigan, as well as the nucicar fuel processing facilitics near Buffalo, New York, and to install devices to trap the radioactive gases' new released into the air.

Furthermore, all construction of larga nuc1 car power reactors and fuel reprocessing

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y fEcilities should be halted pending fuki

• studies of the evidence on health effects in. the neighborhood of all existing nuc1 car facilitics dischargir.g idrge quantitics of radioactive materials into the environ:r.cnt needed for a meaningful reexaminaticn of present radiation standards.

Such epidomiological studies involving exposure of the general

-population 1to fission product releases have so far not been carried out cither by the AEC or !! Ell, despito ~ repeated requests by Congress and. scientific advisory organizations and despite the grave implications that the mounting evidence for low-level radiation effects on the human embryo and infant has for the future of our children.

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TABLE I

. Infant Mortality. Changes 1964-1966 in Illinois Countics near Orcsden*

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1964 Percent ' Change Rate 1966 Rate in Ratos Deaths Births 1000, Deaths Bi rths 1000 1954-66

, D micy (Reactor) 7 442 1 G T3 (T4 31:. 0

+ 141 ',;

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6 728 8.2 12 608 19.7

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5.g K.tnkakce (SE) 41 1976 20.7 54 1830 29.5

+43%

~gi Will (NE) 109 4920 22.2 100 4294 23.3

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gg LaSalle (W) 49 2176 22.5 39 1858 21.0

-7%

Kendall (N) 11' 460.

23.9 7

422 16.6-

- 31 '

<v Av..-45%.

Ogle (NU) 16 854 18.7 20 808 24.8

+ 3 3;'.

Winnebago (f!;!)

122 5002

-24.4 122 4733 25.5

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!!cnry (W) 17 930 13.3 16 862 18.6

+2i; hg Stephens (NU) 25 973 25.6 20 803 24.8

-3C gg Knox (SW) 22 1130 19.5 17

- 946 18.0

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.uo Lee (W) 17 653 25.8 9

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Figure Caotions Fig. 1 Infant mortality rates ner 1000, live births (0-1 year) for Illinois and ?!cw York compared uith radioactive gas emission frcm the Dresden Nuclear Reactor (1959-1968). The excess of Illinois over !!cw York mortality rates is indicated by shading.

Fig. 2.. Difference in infant mortality rates between Illinois and t!cw York plotted against annual gascous releases from Dresden

• Reactor for the period of full power operation'(1963-1963).

Least square fitted lines for years 1963-1967 (t:=5) and 1963-1968 (ti=6).

Correlation coefficients are 0.9233, t = 4.1262 for N=5 and 0.4296, t = 0.9515 for N=6.

- ' ~ ^ Fig.J3 Excess respiratory disease death-rate for Illinois compared to New York vs. annual radioactive cas released from the Dresden

. 1 - reactor.

Respiratory diseases a'e those other than pneumonia r

and influenza, and the excess rates per 100,000 are measured relative to the 1959 rate v. hen the reactor began to. operate.

Fig. 4 Map of Illinois, showing populations in 1954 by cour. tics.

Reactor is located in Grunt.y county. Adjacent counties are indicated by sh"Jr.3, n ne t/? contri co :r. ties to th? w st.

Cook county repr:. scats Chicago.

Prevailing winds are feca the north-west in winter, and from the south-west in the summer months. (See Ref.1)

Fig. 5 Changes in the' infant cortality rates per 1000 live births 2

between 1964 and 1956 for the counties surrounding the Dresden Power Station located in Grundy County, Illinois.

Also shown are the changes in a group of 6 control counties more.than 40 miles to the north-wast and west.

The gaseous emission rate increased frca 71,600 curies in 1963 to 610,000 curies in 1965.

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References (1)

" Radiological Surveillance Studies of a Poiling Water !!ucicar Power Station", CRil/ DER 70-1 (March 1970), U.S. Dep. IIEW, PilS, Rockville, Md.

(2)

P.E. Gustafson, Af!L Review 3_, 67 (1965).

(3)

N.Y.= Times, October.18,1970

-(4)

E.J. Stern 9 ass, Dull.

At. Sc. E, 29 (Dec. 1969).

1 (5)

" Radioactive' Waste Discharges to the Environment fro:n Nuclear Power Facilities", BR!i/ DER 70-2 (;iarch 1970), U.S. Dept. HEW P.li.S.,

Rockville, Md.

s (6)

A. Stewart and G.W. Kneale, Lancet 1,1185 (June 6,1970).

(7)

E.B. Lewis, " Science", 125, 965 (1957); also W.M. Court-Brown and R. Doll, Brit. Med. J. 2, 181 (1953).

(8)

'A. Stewart, J. Webb & D. licuitt, Brit. Med. J. 1, 1495 (1953).

(9)

B. MacMahon, J. flat'l Cancer Inst.. 28, 1773 (1962).

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b A Critical Review of "Infact Mortality and Nuclear Power Generation" by T..J. Sternglass A. K. Davis and Bernd Kahn In an analysis of epidemiologic data from Illinois and the counties sur-roundir.g the Dresden nuclear power reactor at Morris, Illinois, Dr. Ste nglass claims that he detects serious effects on human health.

(See attached. draft Appendix III).

His evidence consists of a comparison of infant mortality and.certain respiratory deaths with the peak cr.ission frca the Dresden He calculates.a dose rate of 22 mR/yr at a distance of 15 km from reactor.

the plant, and implies a significant dose to c.etropolitan Chicago.

Infant mortality in New York Stace and Illinois for the period of 195S-1968 is compared with the radioactivity emitted from Dresden. From 1963 to 1965 the total ' infant mortality in Illinois increased from 23.9 to 25.1/1,000 live births and remained at approximately this icvel during 1966 when the dis-charged radioactivity was at a maximum. A plot of the difference bettraen Illinois and Neu ' fork State for the period 1963-1968 is interpreted by i

Sternglass as shouing a causal relation between infant mortality and the gaseous emissions.

A si=ilar type of analysis uas performed for certain respiratory disease deaths in all age groups in the two states, with a I

similar conclusion.

Steroglass extended the analysis of infant mortality t

to the counties bordering the reactor site by cor. paring 1964 and Ic66, the peak emission year. The county in which the reactor is located and a "downwir.5" county, Livingston, shew more than 200 percent increases in inf$nt mortality.

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The review of this paper has boca divided into two sections. An evaluation of exposure is presented in Appendix I, and the analysis of the epidemiologic data is presented in Appendix II.

A summary of these two scetions follows.

Exposure:

The original data for the exposure calculations are frca a radiological surveillaccc study at Dresden by the Bureau of Radiological Health, DHEW.

These data have been examined and it was concluded that the radiation ex-4 posure has been greatly overestimated by the calculations of Sternglass.

The calculated radiation exposure in 1968, at a distance of 1-2 km from Dresden, uss approximately 1/30th of the 114 to 340 cR/yr that are given in the,Sternglacs article. Radiation e::posure from the gas plume decrocsed continuously with distance between 1 and IS-km.

On the basis of radiation measurecents, the estimated exposure was 0.4 mR/yr at a distance of 18 km from the plant. Accordingly, these measurements suggest that, of the 6.6 million people who live within 50 miles of Dresden, virtually the total population are exposed to considerably less than 0.4 mR/yr. This compares t

with a variation in background radiation of 46 to 110 en/yr, depending on location and housing within the area. Furthernore, the radiation dose fro =

radionuclides of strontiun-89 and cesium-137 through inhalation, ingestion in_ milk, leafy vegetables and cent was calculated to be less than 1 crem/yr to the relatively few exposed persons. Finally, the classifications of

" upwind" and "downuind" used by Sternglass were not accurate. Met eorological data indicate that, contrary to the Sternglass artic1c, Will County is more frequently downuind from Dresden than Livingston County. -

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2 Epidemiolocv :

1 Sternglass ' cvidence of serious health effects from the emission of the Dresden reactor consists of an analysis of changes in infant mortality and respiratory disaase deaths except pneumonia a:d influenza for all ages.

His initici evidence is that infant mortality in Illinois is greater than that in New York.

Houever, New York is not an adequate comparison state for 1111ools, as shown by the infant mortality data from 1955-1961. Further-more, the principal population potentially exposed is metropolitan Chicago--

the State of Illinois, and when the city of Chicago is compared to not St. Louis, the total infant mortality for. both areas follou the same pattern.

Part of the difference between Chicago and New York City is related to fever nonwhite births in New York.

S'cernglass suggests that a relationship exists between reactor effluent and the difference in infant mortality between New York State and Illinois.

This interpretation is questioned because of two factors.

First, the range of " excess" infant mortality (Illinois minus New York) is large (-0.7 to t3.'4/1,000) with the minimum and maximum differences occurring at a single effluent level.

Secondly, a year's lag would be expected since infant mortality resulting from in utcro irradiation would be reflected the year following birth.

On this basis, a cocparison of the curves for emission and infant mortalit y shows that the 1951 caission pegh is followed by a fall in infant mortality in Illinois, and the su'bsequent rise precedes the peak emission, whereas a fall occurs at the peak discharge.

Sternglass also analyzes the Illinois countics uith the highest po-i tential exposure.

Here the number of infant deaths are few, and consequently, one must consider several years to determine the basic rate for infant

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mortality. Sec-rnglass' use of a single year,1964, is not representative of

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- the yearly average.

It is also not an unirradiated control since the reactor emissions began in 1960. The " increase" in infant mortality in Livingston County is an artifact resulting from an unusually'1cu 1964 value.

In most reactor locations the population is small, as in Grundy County, with cor-respondingly few births and therefore few infant deaths. Consequently, a high variability is characteristic of the data. Althou3h the rise in infant mortality is significant in Grundy County, whether radiation exposure is the cause of this rise cannot be determined because of many other causes of 9

infant mortality.

The death rate for all a3es due to respiratory disease otheI than pneumonia and influenza was. 10.9/100,000 in Illinois and 13.0/100,000 in New York in 1960.

By 1967, both states had risen to the same rates (18.6 and 18.7/100,000). Two consideratisns indicate that radiation exposure is unlikely to be the sole cause of this change.. First, there are many discascs with various causes included in the category, and the rise in death rates from this cause is occurring throughout the United States. More important, radiation exposure is reduced by diffusion of the gaseous emission and the dose to the lungs of the exposed population It is highly unlikely that this is considerably less than 0.4 mR/yr.,

~

dose could contribute significantly to respiratory deaths in adults.

In. summary, this analysis shows that radiation exposure has been grossly overestimated. In addition, the changes in infant mortality do not correlate with the radioactive c=issions from the reactor site.

$42(h.5 I' 70.) ;. ' * .,

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Appendix I Radiation Exoosure:

An article entitled " Infant Mortality and Nuclear Power Genera-tion" was presented at the Pennsylvania State Senate hearings on October 21, 1970, in Harrisburg, ?enna., by Dr. Ernest J. Sternglass of the University of Pittsburgh. Th'is article contained radiation exposure cal'eulations near the Dresden I Nuclear Power Station. The original data for these calculations are from the radiological surveillance study at Dresden by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.(1} There are certain inconsistencies in the use of the DHEW data by Dr. Sternglass. It is the purpose of this discussion to point out these inconsistencies and to indicate the proper use of the data in =aking exposure esticates.

(1) According to our calculations. the radiation exoosure in

,1968 at a distance of I-2 km from Dresden was a proxicately ene-fif tiech of the values of 114 to 350 mr ner year that are given in the sternglass article. The values in the article were computed by cultiplying hourly exposure rates, measured during half-hour

~

periods n:4r ground level beneath the centerlines of the gas plume from the Dresden stack, by the number of hours per year. To obtain values of annual radiation exposure at specific locations fro = short-term exposure measurements at the centerline of the gas plu=e, however, one must take into account the fact that the wind at Dresden

• blows in all directions in the course of the year, and that the plant r

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does not operate 365 days per year. The radiation exposure on the ground from the pluce decreases rapidly as the distance from the centerline of the plume increases, b'e calculated that, a distance of 1-2 km from the plant, the annual exposure rate at a specific

, location was equal to the short-term exposure rate times the wind frequency in an 8 sector from the plant toward that location. At the three measurement locations, the wind-direction frequency for an 8 sector was approximately 3 percent in 1968, and the plant operated during 64 percent of the year; hence the exposure was approximately (115 to 350) x 0.03 x 0.64 = 2 to 7 mr per year. The exposure measurements were in directions of relatively high wind frequencies; data for wind frequency in other directions suggest that the annual average radiation exposure in those areas was approximately 30 per-cent lower, and the maximum value, approximately 30 percent higher.

The 2-week measurements with thermoluminescent dosicoters near Dresden that are cited on page 2 of the Sternglass article support these values o'f annual radiation exposure. The values of 17-26 mr per year, calculated in this article without considering the above-mentioned factors, =ust be multipiled by 0.5, however, as indicated in the surveillance report.

This factor takes into account the ratios of the annual value to the 2-week value for wind frequency in the direction of measurement (8.0/5.9), and release rate of radionuclides

-(8,000/11,600). Thus, the three highest 2-week ceasurements indicate radiation exposures of-9 to 13 mr per year. Seven other measurenents show show radiation exposures below 9 mr per year.

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The short-term radiation exposure at a distance of 18 km froc Dresden, given on page 2 of the Sternglass article as 22 mr per year,

=ust also be cultiplied by the factors that take into account the brevity of the period of radia: ion exposure from the gas plume during the year..The cultiplication factor used above--0.03 x 0.64--yields 0.4 mr per year as the estimated radiation exposure in 1968 at the 18 km distance.

These exposures are approxicate, because the measurements on

w. ich they are based were intended only to demonstrate surveillance -

te::hniques and indicate the magnitude ot the exposure, and are too few to provide definitive annual exposure daLc, Hence, tha calcula-tions presented in this discussion have been kept sicole and wititia the framework of values cited in the Sternglass articia. Our measure-

.ments and calculations indicate, however, that the external radiation exposure in 1968 at locations 1-2 km from Dresden, under the conditions defined in our surveillance report and the reported annual discharges was definitely not several hundred er per year, but instead, approxi-mately 10 er per year at the location of taximum exposure, with the average exposure at this distance being approxi=ately 5 mr per year.

The natural radiation background near Diesden ranged from 46 to 110 er per year, with an average of 80 mr per year.

The

, external radiation exposure 1-2 km from Dresden due to gases discharged at Dresdca vas, therefore, a small fraction of the background, and

' smaller than differences in the background at various locations.

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(2) Radiation ex esure from the gas plume decreased continuously with distance between 1 and 10 km from Dresden.

Further decreases at greater distances are exnected because of horizontal and vertical diseersien of the ;as. and radi:cetife decay of the short-lived radienuclides. Our radiation ceasurements indicated an exposure of 0.4 mr per year 18 k= from the plant in 1968. Accordingly, these i

measurements suggest that, of the 6.6 million peopic who live within -

50 miles of Dresden, 99.5 percent are :xposed to considera;1y less than 0.4 mr per year.

It is estirated that several hundred persons live within.

approximately 2 km of Dresden and therefore may be exposed to approx-icately 10 mr per year or less due to gases discharged at Dresden.

An additional 30,000 persons are estimated to live within an 18-km radius and to receive radiation exposures between 0.4 and 10 mr per

~ year from Dresden; most of these persons live at distances of 10 to 18 km, where the radiation exposure would be approximately 1 mr per year. Thus, few persons among those living in Illinois are exposed to measurable incre= cats of radiation from the gases discharged at Dresden.

In view of the cited death rates due to respiratory diseases, we also considered the =agnitude of the concentration of radioactive gases discharged at Drcsden to which the respiratory system would be

• exposed. At the 1968 discharge rate of 12,400 gCi/sec during 64 percent of the cinc,-the average radionuclide concentratica in e

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ground-level air 1-2 km from Dresden at the short-term measurement 3

locations was computed to be 1,400 pCi/m, based on the observed dispersion factor of 6 x 10 sec/=3( } and the wind-direction

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frequency of 3 percent to an 8 sector. The annual average concen-tration would be approximately 1/50 of this concentration i.e.,

30 pCi/c3 -- at a distance of 18 km due to dispersion and radioactive decay, and even icwcr at greater distances. The concentration of Bases from Dresden at a distance of 18 km and more from the plant is 222 lower than that of naturally occurring radioactive Rn 3as, for which 100 to 400 pCi/a are typical values in this area.(2)

(3) The statenent that "the te sured radiation doses do not take into account the various biningical concentration rechanises in the

'rgans of the mother and th'c developing infant in utero for radio-o active cesium, strontium, and yttrium daughter products" should not be taken to mean that these unaccounted-for doses are significant.

89 137 Radiation dose rates from Sr and Cs--including both ceasured concentrations at discharge and computed concentrations from the decay I

of the radioactive gases-through inhalation and through ingestion in milk, leafy vegetables, and meat, were calculated to be considerably less than 1 mrem per year to the relatively few exposed persons in the im=ediate environs.(3)

Doses from other measured particulate radionuclides and gaseous I and 3H were equally low.

If other radionuclides or paths appear to be significant, it would be desirabic to identify thcc so that they could be-evaluated.

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(4) The 'conecats "uewind" and " downwind" were aooarentiv reversed in the artic'le, in that Will County is r. ore frecuently downwind from Dresden than Livingston county. In 1968, the wind at the stack height blew over Dresden from the SW, WSW, and U toward Will county during 24 percent of the year, and from N, F.C, and NE toward Livingston County during only 11 percent of the year.(E) lieferences:

1.

Kahn. S. et al, " Radiological Surveillance Studies at a Boiling Water Nucicar Power Reactor" Public Heal.th Service Rept BRH/ DER 70-1 (1970) 2.

Moses, H., H.F. Lucas, Jr., and G. A. Zerbe, J. Air Pollut. Cont.

As s oc.

,1_3,, 12 (1963).

3.

Blanchard, R.L. et. al., " Dose Rates Derived from Radiological Surveillance Studies 7t T3 oiling Water Reactor Nucicar Power Station",

presented at licali.h Physics - Midyear Topical Sy: posium (1970).

4 Dresden Nuclear Power Station, Meterological Data. 1968.

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Appendix II.

Epidemiologic Considerations The purpose of this section is to examine in detail the epidemiologic

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data which Sternglass submits as evidence for a cousal relationship between radioactive caissions from the Dresden reactor and an increase in infant mortality and respiratory deaths for all ages. The basic facts needed to establish association are:

(1) A known exposura to ionizing radiation, and (2) changes in infant mortality must be shown to be related to this exposure.

In addition, the effcet of other factors which are known to influence infant mortality must be evaluated.

It should be noted also that cau'se and effect are cet proven by a positive association, nor does lack of association necessarily imply that no effect uss produced.

The Dresden reactor is located in the northeast section of the State and the prevailing wind at the site is from the southwest. On the basis ef radiation censurements, the estinated cyposure was 0.4 nR/yr at a distance of 18 km fron the plant. The average exposure at Chicago, a distance of 30 km from the plant, would be considerably less than 0.4 mR/yr. Biologically, this is considered a very small dose, as the measures of biological effcets require at least 1,000 times this amount to be detectable.

Sternglass chose to compare statistics from New York State and Illinois,

'since two-thirds of the Illinois population resides in metropolitan Chicago.

The following analysis uill also more closely examine the potentially ex-posed population of metropolitan Chicago. Infant mortality in the rural areas of 1111ncis and New York are similar over a seven year period (Figure 1) nor do the changes correlate with the discharge from the Dresden reactor.

1 j

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A The infant mortality in the cities of New York, Chicago and St. Louis, as well as the standard statistical arcas designated as the metropolitan For brevity, only the data for the cities are areas were also analyzed.

presented, although similar conclusions can be drawn from the metropolitcn populations. When total infcat tortality is considerad, the marked dif-ference betwaen the white and nonwh,ite cortality rates (Figure 2) requires

)

that comparison areas have nearly equivalent whito/nonuhite rctios. Fro:

1960-196S, the percentage of nonwhite live births to total live births cen-sistently rises from all three cities (Figure 3). The values for St. Lcuis exceed, but core closely approximate Chicago than does New York. As New Y:rk has a larger percentcge of white births (uith a conconittant leter rate) the total infant =ortality tends to be Icss than Chicago (Figure 3). Th:

ratio of whitc/nonuhite births in uccxposed St. Louis more closely ap-proxim:tes the Chicage population and St. Louis closely fcilows the trends for Chicago (Figure 3). However, the ratio of white to nonwhite live bir:hs

'is not the only factor involved, as shown by a compcrison of rates of infs t mortal.ity in the white and nonwhite populations of the three cities (Figura 2 An increase in total infant cortality fren 1964-1966 for both St. Louis and Chicago is also related to an increased infant mortality, particularly in the nonuhite populction.

It is unlikely that the increase can be related :o radioactive emissions from the Dresden reactors, since unexposed St. Louis shows a similar pattern to Chicago.

There are three reasons to question whether the differences in infant mortality batucen New York State and Illinois vary from the pattern of 195521964. First, the magnitude of the change is similar to the range of 23.4 to 24.7/1,000 live births characteristic of the paried.

(Figarc 4) 106 -

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t Secondly, the rural portions of the state are not different. Finally, the dif ferencu in the ratio of white to nonwhite birth in the tuo states is becoming larger by 1964. As Sternglass indicates, the reduction in infant mortality appears-tu be more rapid in New York City than in Chicago, but the reasons for this difference is not known.

The " excess" infant cortality in Illinois both before and after the reactor began operation in 1960, appears to be related to prematurity although attempts to define the cause core precisely have not been fruitful.

If the radiation effects postulated by Sternglass occur in, utero, the effects would appear after birth and, hence, be recorded a year later than exposure. Thus, the first year of reactor operation, 1960-1961, should elicit a major portion of the increase in infant mortality in 1962.

(Sternglass, Appendix III, Figure 1). No such change is observed. The 300,000 curies released in 1962 again produced no effect on 1963 infant morta lity.

In 1963, the release fell to,80,000 curies, but was followed by an increase in infant. mortality (1964). Thus, the increase in infant mortality preceded maxieum releases of radioactivity in 19G4, 1965, and 1966. During two years when 500,000 and 600,000 curies were released, the difference in infant nortality between Neu York State and Illinois peaked. However, a reduction in infant mortality in 1966 occurred durin; a period when gaseous release was at a maximum of 700,000 curies per year.

Thus, the cine course of changes in infant mortility, in Illinois is not correlated with the changes observed in gas discharge.

If the in,utcro

- period is the time of significant irradiation,'the' rise in infant mortalit'y '

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prece' des the pea!: emission and a fall occurs during naximal discharge.

Stern 3 ass also plots the difference in infant tortality between 1

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New York Stato and Illinois against the radioactive caission from the Dresden reactor.

(Appendix III, Figure 2).

Some fundamental objections to the plot are:

(1) Two years of cperation are omitted, 1961 and 1962.

(2) As discussed in the preceding paragraph, the lag time of one year for infant mortality shou'.d be plotted as-inst the activity levels.

(3) The plot assumes th:: Now York State is an adequata control for Illinois which has been questioned in a previous discussion. Nevertheless, the range of the observatio:: is large (-0.7 to +3.4/1,000 live births) with the maximum and minimum both occurring around 300,000 curies per year, and the dis-tribution of all the data points makes any relationship between exposure and effect doubtful.

A plot of the 1960-1967 infant mortality data from the counties around the reactor is presented in Figures 4 and 5.

As the reactors are purpose-fully picced in sparsely populated areas, the population in the county in which a reactor is located is usually small and a high variance in infant mortality results from the sm:11 number of births and deaths being recorded.

Such y'early fluctuations are evident from even a casual inspection of.

Figures 5 and 6.

Because of the variance, it requires several years to establish a valid estimate of base line values. Steragiass' use of a single year,1964, as a base misrepresents the trend.

In Livingston County, the 1964 value is significantly lower than the preceding and following years.

Consequently, the 234 percent increase for Livingsto,a in 1956 can be also presented as a reduction of 68 percent of the 1963 value. The infant mortality in Grundy is numerically small, but the 18 deaths in 1966 is a high 'for. the 1960-1967 perled, and it is significantly different from the mean and from the 1964 value.

Were these deaths caused by radiation expos re?

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4 Are they the result of infection, disease, or accident? To answer these questions more detailed knowledge of the causes of death are required than are available to the author.

- 5:ne of these cata can be interpreted to mer.n that the large quantities of radica:tivity released into the atmosphere have no effect on the infant

mortality. The nu=ber of births and deaths in a county of 20,000 is so small, and the possibic etiology so varied, that the analysis could only detect very large changes caused by a single agent.

Sternglass' proposed relacionship between respiratory diseases and radiation exposure is based on a difference in the rate of increase between Illinois and New York.

Both States had similar rates in 1967 (18.6 and 18.7/100,000), but.in 1959, Illinois and lieu York had rates of 10.9 and 13.0/100,000, respectively. The rise in both states is not unique, but is observed in the United States as a whole and is probably related. to ma y feitors_conmon to urban life. To resolve this problem uould require No analysis of the specific disease categories in several states. Many

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of the etiological factors are unidentified and it appcars extremely

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in 11'linois.

i unlikely that the radiation is the single causative agent Perhaps the strongest evidence to substantiate this position is that the estimated exposure is considerably less than 0.4 mR/yr. This can be i

compared to the variation in background level of 40-110 mR/yr measured at different locations within the area of Dresden.

Although Dr. Sternglass has prescuted no data for the potentially ex-posed population, he discusses the possibility that the incidence of all malignant tumors and of -leuhe.tias might be iacreased in the irradiated population.

Such malignancies may have a long latent period at low dose

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e rates so it is-not surprisin ; that d:ca for St. Louis, Chicago and New York City' chou no definitive trends over the 1900-1957 period.

(Table 1) A comparison of death rates from all neoplasms shows that netropolitan St.' Louis and New York are concistently higher than Chicago. It is evident that the rates for. Chicago.are not relcted to the geseous discharge from Dresden over the 1961-1967 period. 'On the sa c bcsis the death rates froa leukemia for metropolitan New York, St. Louis and Chicago are not significantly different over the 1960-1967 period. Neither the death rate from leukemia nor from all.neoplasas are correlated with the gascous discharge from Dresden.

' Summary This analysis of the epidemiologic dcta presented by Sternslass does not support his contention that an association exists between exposure to the radiesetite e=icsien: frc= Dre: den end infant cortclity. In contrast, the data can not be interpreted to cean that no effcces were produced by--

the'radiction exposure.,However, if radiation from the Dresden reactor contributes,to infant cortality or respiratory deaths in 1111ocis or Chicago,.it has not been demonstrated by this study.

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Fir,ure 4 - Infant Mortality Itate in Illinois and New Ycrk State j

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$caths and Nach na:es fec.s All ::coplet. s and Leukemia Cites of Chicego, T w York, St. Louis 1960 - 1967 Rate /100,000 All W op.

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Chiccea 7.r60 6,887 280 7, 16 7 3,550,4.04 194 8

2 02 1961 6,701 325 7, 02 6 3,527,090 190 9

199 J962 6,621 259

,6,880 3,505,375 189 7

IS6 1963 6,S03 270 7,0S7 3,452,EG2 196 8

203 1964 6,634

'236 6,920 3,460,343 193 7

. 200 1965 6,795 266 7,061 3,437,034 193 8

205 1966 6,764 260 7,024

!3,415,319 193 8

2C5 1967 6,78S 252 7,040

! 3,392,805-200 7

207

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t 11 M 15,955 6 32 16,557

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7,731,91',

205 3

213 1951 16,137 645 16,782 7,750,959I 207 8

216 1962 16,241 SS3 16,824 j 7,779,933-209 7

216 1963 16, 0.'.1 -

625 16,659 1901 25,450 623 17,073

[ 7,N7,0.'2;j e, s e s,9C';

205 8

2 '. _

211 S

221 1905 16,340 SSO 16,920 7,776,3578 210 7

215

'1966 16,697 666 17,353 i 7,775,S32, 215 8

223 1967-16,594_

614 17,203 7,774,6C6L 213 8

221 St. Loui,f 1

195; 1,6S6 50 1,735 750,0'.6 225 7

2 r.

3 1961 1,615 63 1, 6.'

7.;,7J5 22 3 5

1s52 1,571 64 1,635 i

707,334(g 721,564 218 9

226 1963 1,5S0 58 1,638 I

223 8

232 1964 1,514 63 1,577 f

693,103 218 9

22S 1965 1,493 63 1,561 67S,872!

221 9

23C 1966 1,676 55 1,731 664,641!

252 8

260 1967.

1,564 62 1,626 650,4101 240 10 250

• Popuistion estimated frora 1960 and,1970 Census figures.

- 117 -

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