ML19320C976
| ML19320C976 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crystal River  |
| Issue date: | 07/16/1980 |
| From: | Baynard P FLORIDA POWER CORP. |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| RTR-NUREG-0667, RTR-NUREG-667 CA-80-18, NUDOCS 8007180384 | |
| Download: ML19320C976 (26) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:.~ [hh:,, ~ f N.I, ,P ; ,4 s., 4,W~;,'02 9 av, w - M Power CO n ro n 4 i to N July 16, 1980 File: 3-0-1-a Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555
Subject:
Crystal River Unit 3 Docket No. 50-302 Operating License No. DPR-72 NUREG-0667
Dear Sir:
Recommendation 22 of NUREG-0667 recommended the performance of an analy-sis of the number of licensee event reports attributed to licensed per-sonnel error. Florida Power Corporation hired INP0 to do this study. The enclosed report is the result of this study. If you have any questions about this submittal, please contact this office. Sincerely, FLORIDA POWER CORPORATION 9 W Patsy Y. Baynard Manager Nuclear Support Services Klein(M03)Dl-2 Attachment cc: Director Office of Inspection and Enforcement U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555 8007180SM General Office 3201 Thirty-fourtn street soutn. P O Box 14042, St Petersburg. Fionda 33733 813-866-5151 1
I STATE OF FLORIDA COUNTY OF PINELLAS P. Y. Baynard states that she is the Manager, Nuclear Support Services Department of Florida Power Corporation; that she is authorized on the part of said company to sign and file with the Nuclear Regulatory Com-mission the information attached hereto; and that all such statements made and matters set forth therein are true and correct to the best of her knowledge, information and talief. Tim %. #22u>.m A ~~ # (f. Y. /Ba'ynard Subscribed and sworn to before me, a Notary Public in and for the State and County above named, this 16th day of July,1980. MA & Y / Notary Public Notary Public, State of Florida at Large, My Coianission Expires: June 8, 1984 i PYB/MAHNotary(DE-2-3) l
CA-80-18 o. INSTITUTE OF NUCLEAR POWER OPERATIONS memorandum INPO May 1, 1980 TO: P. Y. BAYNARD FROM: P. E. DIETZ
SUBJECT:
ASSESSMENT OF LICENSED OPERATOR ERRORS The following assessment of licensed operator errors was completed in support of the Crystal River Three Nuclear Safety Task Force. Recommendation 22 of the DRAFT NUREG-0667, April 2,
- 1980, transient response of Babcock and Wilcox - designed reactors urges the performance of an analysis of the number of licensee event reports attributed to licensed personnel error to determine the significance and cause of the higher number associated with the operation of B & F facilities.
As noted in the report, LERs have only been categorized by licensed personnel error since January 1978. The following table Js from the NRC report and covers LERs between January 1978 and January 1980. TABLE 1 LER OUTPUT ON LICENSED OPERATOR EVENTS FOR 1978 and 1979 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 58 6.44 CE 8 45 5.63 GE 25 142 5.68 W 25 131 5.24
MEMO TO P. Y. BAYNARD PAGE TWO MAY 1, 1980 To address the expressed concern, I performed an independent analysis of the LER data. A search of the LER Data Base provided by NRC yielded the following information on licensed operator errors between January 1978 and March 1980. TABLE 2 LFR' OUTPUT ON LICENSED OPERATOR EVENTS BETWEEN JANUARY 1978 AND MARCH 1980 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 CE 25 151 6.0 W 25 146 5.8 A cursory review of the data might indicate that licensed operators generate more LERs at B & W plants than at the other vendor-designed facilities. As noted in NUREG-0667, the reported LERs decreased significantly with age of the plant, those having already undergone the first several years break-in period generally submitting the fewest LERs. Accordingly, I attempted to analyze the data in sucn a way as to remove the bias caused by plant maturity. One simple approach was to eliminate from consideration plants more mature than any B & W plant. The starting date for each vendor's first plant is shown in table 3. TABLE 3 YEAR FIRST PLANT TAKEN CRITICAL VENDOR YEAR B&W 1973 CE 1971 GE 1959 W 1960 1
MEMO TO P. Y. BAYNARD PAGE THREE MAY 1, 1980 If only the plants that have been taken critica: for the first time since 1973 are considered the D & W plants no longer generate the most licensed operator errors. TABLE 4 LICENSED OPERATOR ERRORS AT PLANTS CRITICAL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JANUARY 1973 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 6 30 5.0 GE 12 100 8.3 W 16 119 7.4 The appendix looks at the accumulated experience for other starting years than 1973. It shows the effect on the data base of the older plants which are operating smoothly. Analyzing only LERs since 1978, is like taking a time exposure picture of operating history. By looking at a single time period, one can see all plant data affected by the same industry wide influences such as the THI-2 accident. Figures 1 through 8 show how the number of LERs varies with plant age. It can be seen that no one vendor-designed plant has a tendency to generate more licensed operator errors (LERs) than the others. In fact the data fluctuations for both GE and Westinghouse plants are larger than for B & W plants, and each bounds the B & W fluctuation. I conclude that the LER data does not support a concern that the error rate for licensed operators at B & W plants is greater than for other nuclear plants, once the bias due to plant maturity has been removed. PD/sd Attachments
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ATTACH!.!ENT 1 APPENDIX I LER OUTPUT ON LICENSED OPERATOR EVENTS FROM JANUARY 1978 TO MARCH 1980 O. PLANTS FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1978 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 1 10 10.0 CE 1 2 2.0 GE 1 22 22.0 W 2 45 22.5 1. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1977 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 3 44 14.7 CE 1 2 2.0 GE 1 22 22.0 W 3 62 20.7 -l-i i
2. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1976 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 3 44 14.7 CE 3 15 5.0 GE 3 31 10.3 W-6 73 12.2 i i I 3. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1975 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT l B'& W 3 44 14.7 CE 4 17 4.2 GE 4 44 11.0 W 8 93 11.6 I I 4.
4. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1974 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 7 62 8.9 CE 5 26 5.2 GE 10 94 9.4 i W 10 98 9.8 a 5. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1973 i VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 6 30 5.0 GE 12 100 8.3 W 16 119 7.4.-
6. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1972 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 7 41 5.9 GE 15 116 7.7 4 W 19 134 7.0 i l .7. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1971 l VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 4 GE 17 121 7.1 W 19 134 7.0
8. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1970 i VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 20 135 6.7 W 21 139 6.6 i f i 9. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JA!.~TARY 1969 4 i i VENDOR.' TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 22 144 6.5 W 22 139 6.3 4 ) 5-r a - - + w ,.n ,, e - ~- --..w w
10. FIRST~ CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1968 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT BEW 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 22 144 6.5 W 22 139 6.3 11. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1967 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERA.GE/ PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 22 144 6.5 W 24 144 0.0 '
12. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1966 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 22 144 6.5 W 24 144 6.0 13. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1965 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 22 144 6.5 W 24 144 6.0 %g &' p/ ~ r 14. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1964 48) ,31 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE [ PLANT w J i% s B Sc W 9 70 7.8
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53 6.6 GE 22 144 6.5 W 24 144 6.0 15. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1963 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 23 147 6.4 W 24 144 6.0.
16. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1962 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 C.6 GE 24 150 6.2 W 24 144 6.0 17. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1961 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT i B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 24 150 6.2 W 24 144 6.0 1
b 18. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1960 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B & 'E 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 24 150 6.2 W 25 146 5.8 19. FIRST CRITICAL AFTER JANUARY 1959 VENDOR TOTAL PLANTS LERs AVERAGE / PLANT B&W 9 70 7.8 CE 8 53 6.6 GE 25 151 6.0 W 25 146 5.8 - -
A CA-80-27 1N STIT UT E OF NUCLEAR POWER OPERATIONS ~ memorandum INPO May 9, 1980 TO: P. E. Dietz FROM: W. C. Evans LICENSED-OPERATOR-ERROR DATA ANALYSIS 1. DATA: BW 7, 1, 4, 3, 2, 9, 10, 24 CE 12, 11, 4, 9, 2, 4, 9, 2 GE 1, 3,3,5,4, 7, 5, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 12, 4, 2, 3, 5, 7, 3, 13, 19, 13, 0, 9, 22 W 2, 1, 4, 0, 1, 4, 3, 10, 2, 5, 0, 0, 12, 2, 2, 4, 1, 14, 6, 0, 5, 6, 17, 21, 24 II. MEANS, SUMS OF SQUARES: BW y= 7.50 Iy= 60 2 a= 7.43 Iy = 836 op = 2.63 N= 8 CE y= 6.63 Iyg=52 o= 4.07 Iy 467 op 1.44 N= 8 GE y= 6.04 Iyg=151 a= 5.68 Iy 1685 op= 1.13 N= 25 W F= 5.84 Iyg=146 o= 6.74 Iy 1944 op= 1.35 N= 25 OVERALL: P= 6.21 I=2=10 4 a= 8.01 Iy 4932 op= 0.99 N= 66
M:mo to P. E. Dietz Page Two .M&y 9, 1980 III. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: Assume a one-way ANOVA (ignore age effects in vendor data-variation in LER's is just a random sampling of error rate) to test for a difference in LER incidence between vendors. EFFECT SS DF MS F Vendors 18.84 3 6.28 .16 Error 2366.19 62 38.16 Total 2385.03 65 Since F - 3.1, we accept the hypothesis of no 3,62,0.95 difference between vendors. Of course, there is an age effect in this data, so that the total variation is due to both that effect and any vendor differences. The additional variability introduced into the data by this age effect tends to reduce our ability to find vendor differences (which, if they exist at all, are likely to be small). It was not practical to attempt more sophisticated analyses to account for the age effect, such as analysis of covariance or multifactor ANOVA. IV. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ON MEANS: t62,.975 95% Inte1.m1 Vendor i c-L BW 7.50 2.63 2.00 (11.87, 3.13) CE 6.63 1.44 2.00 (11.0, 2.26) GE 6.04 1.13 2.00 (8.51, 3.57) W 5.84 1.35 2.00 (8.31, 3.37) Figure 1 is a sketch of these intervals, and shows that the vendor means and their 95% confidence intervals overlap - the data does not support the hypothesis of a difference in LER incidence across vendors. WCE/sd Attachment
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