ML19319D699
| ML19319D699 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crystal River, 05000303  |
| Issue date: | 08/10/1967 |
| From: | Eaton R FLORIDA POWER CORP., GILBERT/COMMONWEALTH, INC. (FORMERLY GILBERT ASSOCIAT |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19319D697 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8003240691 | |
| Download: ML19319D699 (33) | |
Text
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2.
Flood Studies for Crystal River Nuclear Power Plant O
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!!!!Illllll14111118 CoNGREOOloNAL TOWER & TERRACE 5 TELEPHONE 427 7455 259 CONGRESSIONAL LANE AREA CoOE 3ol RoCMVILLE, MARYLAND 2c852
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RICHARD O. EATON, P. E.
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RoCKVILLE, MD. 2o85o CONSULTING ENGINEER FLOOD STUDIES FOR CRYSTAL RIVER NUCLEAR POWER PLANT Report to Gilbert Associates, Inc.,
Reading. Pennsylvania BASIS FOR REPORT 1.
The writer was requested on April 18, 1967, to initiate studies with a view to establishing design criteria for flood pro-tection at the proposed Crystal River, Florida, Nuclear Power Plant and to prepare a report thereon suitable for presentation as a supplement to the PSAR. The report is to include the recommended design water stage for a properly conservative analysis of flood characteristics; the effects of wave runup where wave action is important; and recommendations with respect to design for flood protection features. Model studies are to be employed if required to establish final design criteria. The investigation and report, to the extent necessary for the PSAR, is to be completed by June 30, 1967. It ir
---~nized that it may not be feasible to com-plete model studies
_ ate.
PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS 2.
After reviewing available data, the writer reached the following conclusions:
a.
Flood levels induced by hurricanes, as well as wave runup during such storms, will be by far the most important consideration in establishing flood protection design criteria.
b.
Data assembled by the Corps of Engineers relating to hurricane tide amplitudes are the most reliable wh,1ch could be applied to the problem. They comprise the ccmbined efforts of the Corps and the Weather Bureau over a period of more than 50 years of observation supplemented by intensified research since 1955.
The Corps has made detailed studies of hurricane effects throughout the coastal areas of Florida and at selected points the probable frequency of storms of varying flood producing capability h' ave been evaluated. Many variables are involved in such determinations, the principal ones being:
(1) The intensity of the storm, generally described by the parameter " Central
(~h Pressure Index" (C.P.I.).
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(2) The radius from the storm center to the zone of maximum wind velocity which is a function of the C.P.1.
(3) The path of movement of the storm center.
(4) The rate of movement of the storm center.
(5) Water depths in areas traversed by the storm.
(6) Topography of land areas inundated by the storm.
(7) The amplitudes attained by astronomical tides during the course of the storm.
3.
For any specific area the flood heights reached in any storm depend upon the degree to which the variables (1) through (4) listed above concurrently approach critical values with respect to the area of concern. Applying a mathematical analysis of the frequency of occurrence of each of the variables the probability of occurrence of a flood stage of any specific magnitude in any single year may be predicted. This is often expressed, though not accurately, as the flood stage to be expected, say, once in 100 years, f-It is quite possible for a so-called 100-year flood to occur more than
(,,g) once within a century but over a long-time average the prediction should be reasonably sound.
4.
The Corps of Engineers, in establishing a basis for design criteria for hurricane flood protection, follows a course of reason-ing which leads to a design project hurticane flood which has a chance of occurrence of about 1 in 250 in any single year. For the jrystal River area this would result in a design maximum still water stage 'of about 15.5 feet above mean sea level.
In a recent flood investigccion for a nuclear power plant in Biscayne Bay, Florida, the AEC s taff required that the maximum probable hurricane be established as a basis for design criteria for critical plant elements which must rr. main in operation for orderly shutdown with'out creating excessive radiation hazard in nearby areas. Assuming this action by the AEC stadf to be a policy determination the studies made for the Crystal River l'lant have included determination of the estimated maximum probable hun cicane as it would relate to both maximum still water level and wave Ionup.
DESIGN CRITERIA PROPOSED 5.
My associate, Mr. T. E. Haeussner, has made a study of the maximum probable hurricanestorm tide and wave heights which could occur in the Crystal River area. His report on this subject is attached as.
I concur fully in his findings and I accordingly recommend:
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Crystal River Page 2.
a.
That, for purposes of insuring operation of plant elements that are necessary to accomplish shutdown without hazard to public safety, the design still water level be establistied at 21.4' above MLW. (I recommend also the MIN be the datum plane for all plant design since tides will be an important factor in plant design and operation and all tide tables are based upon MIR.)
b.
That, since it is now understood that the ground elevation will be at +10' MLW for a substantial distance around the entire plant, the design wave height be established at 9.0'.
This is the largest wave that can reach the plant structure without previously breaking.
c.
That, hydraulic model studies be carried out to evaluate the effects of wave runup after layout plans have reached an appropriate stage.
4 June 9, 1967 Richard O. Eaton, P.E.
Consulting Engineer - Haeussner Report 0303 Crystal River Page 3.
O ENCICSURS 1 0
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ATRCIMBTTS:
O Exhibits 1.
Basic tide-frequency relationships - Cedar Keys and Crystal River, Florida areas.
2.
C.P. I. frequency. relationship - Cedar Keys and Crystal River, Florida areas.
3.
Desip hurricane winds and pressure effect.
4.
Mao - Desip Hurricane Critical Path & Fetch Data.
5.
M.P.H. data and back-up comutations.
6.
M.P.H. tide orofile - Crystal River, Florida.
7.
Tide-frequency curve - Crystal Piver Florida area.
I I
Tables 1.
Pre-and Post-1900 burricanes and tropical disturbances.
2.
Basic.infornation - desip hurricane data.
O O
0305
PRELIMINARY SAFETY ANALYSIS REPORT fl DESIGN PERRICANE ANALYSIS O
CRY 1TAL RIVER, FLCRIDA PREFACE The following analysis is an exnansion and clarification of data, procedures and results referred to in the prelimirary recort on tidal flopd levels and wave action that can reasonably be expected to occur in the Crystal River, Florida area during the design hurricane. This analysis is supplemental to the report previously submitted by the writer and dated May 7, 1967 GEERAL CONSIDERATIONS The magnitude of hurricane tides and wave action that can be generated in any given coastal area subject to reneated hurricane OV occurreice is a function of many factors. Some of these are --
the size, intensity, oath and forward speed of the storms the physical charactaristics, viz. death and tonography, of the carticular reach of coast being analyzed, both offshore and imediately onshore; the regularity or degree of irregularity of the immediate coastline; the presence or absence of offshore bars or islands, either natural or manmade, and numerous other factors. Each of those items must be evaluated in some detail to determine their individual and collective centribution to the problem.
HURRICANE OCCURRECE AMD PATH As stated in the preliminary recort, referred to above, a total d
1
TABLE 1 Pre-and Post-1900 Hurricanes and Trooical Storns
, Crystal River, Florida Area IURRICANES AND 'IROPICAL SiCRMS PRE-1900 POST-1900 1837 - July 31 - August 7 1908 - October 25 - 31 (T) 1842 - October 5 - 6 1909 - June 26 - 30 (T) 1846 - Oc tober 11 - 12 1910 - October 11 - 18 1848 - October 10 - 12 1912 - October 2 - 4
( T) 1878 - Sectember 2 - 12 1921 - October 21 - 31 1879 - October 25 - 27 1924 - September 27 - 30 (T) 1880 - August 26 - 31 (T) 1928 - August 3 - 12 (T) 1881 - November 20 - 23 (T) 1928 - September 6 - 20 1882 - October 9 - 10
( T) 1933 - August 31 - September 7 1885 - Seotember 28 - 30 (T) 1934 - July 21 - 25 (T) 1986 - June 27 - 30
( ?) 193" - July 29 - August 2 (T) 1888 - Seotember 7 - 16 Ps40 - August 2 - 10
( T)
(~T 1888 - October 8 - 12 1944 - October 13 - 21
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1889 - June 15 - 23
( T) 1945 - June 19 - 27 1892 - October 22 - 25 (T) 1945 - September 3 - 4
( T) 1894 - June 1 - 3
( T) 1946 - Oc tober 7 - 9 1898 - August 2 - 3
( T) 1947 - September 13 - 25 (T) 1899 - October 2 - 9
( T) 1949 - August 24 - 29 1950 - Seotember 1 - 7 19 50 - Oc tober 18 - 21 1966 - June 6 - 11 Note: {T) - Tropical Storm -
0308
r3 used as a basis of design in hurricane protection studies O
(15.2 ft.MLW), is clotted en that curve. A tide frequency curve for the Crystal River area was constructed, as shown on that exhibit, based en the computed value of the Corps of Engineer's 0. P. Hurricane tide (16.5 ft. IMLW) and a com-parison of offshore topography in the gulf opoosite Crystal River and Cedar Keys.
The physical characteristics of the area offshore of Crystal River (discussed below), while generally similar to those gulfusrd of Cedar Keys, are slightly more critical along a southwest fetch insofar as peak tide generation is concerned.
The shaoe of the curve for Crystal River for a low range of tide heights (4 - 8 ft. e.g.) is admittedly relative and subject to some degree of individual interprd:ation. However, that oortion of the curve is not of O
major significance insofar as critical tide heights are concerned.
TOPOGRAPHY The offshere topography of the Crystal River area within the first 8 - 10 miles, is shown in detail on C. & G. S. Maps No.1258 and 1259 and can best be described as concave, or saucer shaped, broken intermittantly by a scattered series of submerged reefs. From the westward lip of the saucer, the average bottom slope decreases gulfward rather uniformly at a rate of about 1.5 feet oer mile in a southyresterly direction to and beyond the 10-fathom line. A bottom erofile, taken on an azimuth of 220 degrees on man 1258 and averaged,over a
-3 0309
6-mile width for hurricane tide com:utation purposes, can be seen on Exhibit 6 illustrating those conditions.
The variation in offshore depth with approach direction is a significant factor in hurricane tide and wave generation.
Variatiers in bottom elevation of a foot or so per mile over a 20 - 30 mile distance can produce as much as several feet difference in the magnitude of hurricane tide along the coast. For example, the comnuted values of the design hurricane tide given in Tables R-12 and R-13 of reference 2 for %rpon Sprin*gs and Crystal River are 13 / and 16 / ft., respectively.
The 6-fathom line ooposite the latter area lies about twice as far offshore than at the former.
DESIGI HURRICANE O
a.
Basis of Selectien. As previously noted, the intensity of the design hurricane selected as optimum acceptable criteria for the Crystal River nuclear power plant operation and security is based on precedent established for the Turkey Point, Florida power plant site.
The minimum acceptable criteria for that plant was a Maximum Probable Hurricane having an associai.ed return frequency of occurrence of about once in 10,000 years.
The design hurricane selected for the Crystal River plant site, and its associated parameters and criteria, were therefore based on a maximum probable storm having the most critical combination of conditions for tide and wave generatien.
The parameters describing that storm and the basis of their selection are dis-cussed in the following subparagraphs.
A
b.
Design krricane Parameters.
1.
C.P. I.
The central pressure index, or degree of intensity of the design hurricane was based primarily on published results of hurricane research investigations by the Hydrometeorological Section of the U.S. Weather Bureau.
Basic C.P.I. data for various storm frequencies were taken from figure 15 of N.H.R.P. Recort No. 33 (reference 2) and H.U.R. 7-50 (reference 3) for the Crystal River, Florida area and plotted as shown on Exhibit 2.
(Reference figure 15 shews the latitudinal variation in C.P.I. with respect to distance along the gulf coast for seven different frequencies.) The resulting curve connecting the 7 plotted points shown on Exhibit 2 was extended from a 200 year frequency to a 10,000 year frequency. The O
variation in C.P.I. with latitude along the coast, in-L/
dicated on reference figure 15, is relatively regular both as to frequency and distance and also to the rate of change in values with resoect to both frequency and location, thus oermitting direct extrapolation of both intermediate frequencies and locations. A straight line extranoNtion of plotted points would have resulted in a value of 26.2 inches C.P.I. at 10,000 year frequency however, some slight curvature was indicated frem figure 15 which resulted a value of 26.00 inches. That value was therfore selected as the C.P.I. of the design hurricane (ttPH) for the Crystal River area.
2.
Radius of Maximum Wind (R). A censiderable variation 6
Ov 0311
can be found in the radiu's of maximum winds for storns of moderate intensity; hewever, for severe hurricanes the limits olaced on that parameter by the intensification crecesses involved and dynamics of the storm system results in a rather small variation of less significance. For ex-amole, the difference between the envelope curve values shown on figure 17 of reference 3 for small and large radius storms having a C.D.I.
of 26.00 inches is only about 5 statute miles.
The large radius value of 9
statute miles was therefore selected as being slightly more critical.
3.
Forward Soeed iT).
In the design burricane analysis for the Turkey Point, Florida nuclear power clant the ootimum criteria regarding forward speed of the storm was that it must approach the area on a critical path and slow to a stationary costion at or near the coast.
That criteria was adopted for this analysis. The approach soeed of translation was taken from figure 20 of reference 2 at an estimated 1 nercent occur rence which gave a value of about 3 knots. On a proaching the coast that speed would dron to zero in the critical position for hurricane tide generation.
4.
Path of Acoroach.
The anproach oath of the design hurricane must be such so as to involve a critical com-bination of wind soeed, wind direction and offshore depth.
It must also be selected so as to be in relative conformance 0312 9
i with paths of hurricanes of record. As previously dis-q(v' cussed the majority of record stoms of major intensity approached the area on a path in the south-west quadrant, i.e., from 180 to 270 degrees.
The approach path was selected by inspection of several trial oaths and the com-bination of wind speed direction, depth and wind tide fetch that would result from each. A nath of'2200 from north was finally chosen as t te ene having the most critical comb' nation of those conditions.
(That cath is shown on Exhibit 4. )
BASIC CCMPI'TATIONS DESIGT HURRICANE The overwater wind profile, oressure, and pressure effect at various radial distances from the center were comouted for the selected C.P.I. of 26.00 inches and 9 statue mile radius of maximum winds using standard U.S. Weather Bureau procedures recommended in T. R. Report No. 4 (reference 4). Da ta given below in Table 2 and shown on Exhibit 3 are the cartial outout af a G. E. 415 comeuter orogram. From those data a circular wind pattern was constructed.
In view of the required stationary position of the storm center no adjustment was deemed necessary for asymetry or forward speed.
The resulting isovel pattern was cositioned on U. S. C. & G. S. Man No.1258 for comoutation purooses because of the greater amount of deoth and tomographic detail. Because of the large size of that man, the basic layout 7
O 0313 l
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TABLE 2 J
DESIGI hTRRICA'IE DATA C. P. I. = 26.00 inches R = 9 statute miles Distance Overwater Pres sure Pressure from wind Effect Center Profile (Stat. Miles)
(MPH)
( Inches)
(Feet) 2.3 42.10 26.07 4.39 4.5 81.29 26.53 3.86 l
6.8 112.44 27.03 3.29 9.0 125.76 27.44 2.82 19.0 101.24 28.44 1.69 29.0 80.24 28.87 1.19 39.0 68.29 29.11 0.92 1
49.0 59.84 29.26 0.75 59.0 52.51 29.37 0.63 69.0 46.84 29.44 0.55 89.0 39.74 29.54 0.43 109.0 34.29 29.61 0.35 i
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and data determined therefrem were transferred to a smaller
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scale map, No.1114, for inclusion in the report - see t
Exhibit 4.
WIND TIDE COMPUTATIONS a.
Procedures.
The basic wind tide comoutation procedures emoloyed in the analysis were those cresented and discussed in Mrt 1, Chaoter 1, eages 137-143 of Technical Report No. 4, re-ference 4.
In accordance with the recormendatien on eage 140 of that renort the atmosoheric oressure effect ard astrenomical tide were included in the numerical ntegration nrocedure, rather than add their total effect collectively at shore to the final value determined. The comoutations were started at the 10-tathom line, 50 miles gulfward from the plant site. Normal high tide (2.4 f t. MLrt) was assumed to occur for at least one hour duration during the maximum tide condition. Also, the peak normal high tide (2.4 ft. MLW) was assumed to exist without diminution at the gulfward end of the fetch.
Yalues of average bottom elevation were determined by 1-mile fetch intervals across a total 6-mile average width based on three 2-mile wide traverses, azimuth 2200 from north. Pressure effect values at various radial distances from the storm center were also comouted and are shewn on Exhibit 4.
Values of the absolute wind soeed and wind corroonent in the direction of comoutatien were determined from the clotted wind speeds and directions utilizing the cosine of the angle between wind direction and storm path.
The selected fetch was taken to be parallel to the path in order to obtain maximum wind effect in the shallow areas just offshore of the plant site.
The i
V 0315
basic equation used was Equation (1-65) of reference 4, as follows:
ASi 405 k W dx x
d T in which the wind sneed is in miles ner hour squared, Ax in statute miles, dT in feet, k = 3.Ox10-6, and 4Si is in feet.
The datum used was mean low water. A nresentation of basic data together with the back-up comuutations is given on Exhibit 5.
b.
Results.
The computed maximum probable hurricane tido elevation at the plant site was determined to be 21.36 ft. MLW. A plot of the computed maximum orobable hurricane wind tide profile can be seen on Exhibit 6.
Com-puted ooints along the fetch are shown on the profile. A tide-frequency curve for the Crystal River nuclear oower olant site area, showing the computed standard project hurricane and maximum orobable hurricane tide values is given on Exhibit 7 c.
Discussion. Wind-tide computations for the design hurricane ignored any effects of offshore dredge and fill ooerations associated with the barge canal and discharge channels extending from the conventional plant site. Permit application drawings showing dredge spoil and fill sections (dated Februargl5,1964) indicate the spoil elevation to be
/10 ft. MLW.
In view of the severity and assumed stationary position of the design hurricane it is highly oossible that during an occurrence of that storm the duration of peak tides and wave action could be such as to severely erode and 0
9 0316
effectively reduce the height et* the spoil, so that any re-sultant effect on the height of peak tide reached at the plant site would be neglegible, er at best, minimal. Another effect which has been studied is that of tidal overflow of the relative-ly low land shoreward of the coast.
It is felt that any reducticn in peak hurricane tide due to tidal overflow and lateral spread overland should also be considered minimal, or 1 nered, in olant 6
design.
Eecause of the low land elevation tidal overflow inland would begin to occur when flood levels reached about 5-6 feet MLN, and would continue at an increasing rate' as the tide elevation increased. In all probability when the peak hurricane tide level was reached at the olant site, tidal flood levels would extend relatively undiminished a considerable distance inland. A similar situation was observed during Hurricane Betsy, in September,1965, along the lower east coast of Florida when tidal flooding occurred in the area south of Homestead, Florida, ex-tending more than 5 miles inland in some areas.
WAVE ACTION a.
General.
In accordance with paragraph 1.25 of refer-ence 4 wave genera tion in relatively shallow water areas, such as exist along the gulf coast offshore of the Crystal River area, is affected by water death. For a given set of wind and fetch conditions, wave heights will be smaller ard wave ceriods shorter if generation takes place in transiticnal or shallow water areas.
The variatien in offshore tooography in the Crystal River area has been previously ciiscussed. From Il 10
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Exhibit 6 it can be seen that water depths under the peak O
M. P. H.
wind tide profile do not vary greatly, and generally range between 20 and 25 feet for distances un to 25 miles from shore along the wind tide fetch. Also, depth variations along each of the traverses used in the tide analysis are small.
Effective winds in the storm in its stationary position at shore are highest immediately offshore and decrease gulfward with fetch distance.
In general then, it can be seen that the determining criteria for wave generation is some critical com-bination of effective average wind speed and water deoth.
b.
Drecedures.
The basic procedures followed in the design storm wave analysis are those recommended in paragraoh 1.25 of reference 4.
The analysis consisted of evaluating the accumulative average effective depth and wind speed over various fetch lengths, beginning at the plant site and pro-grossing gulfward.
Those data were then used in figures l-35 through 1-43 of reference 4 to obtain the limiting values of significant wave height (Hs) and wave period (Ts) for each combination tested. Details of the analysis can be found in Exhibit 5.
c.
Results. By a process of successive approximations of fetch, depth, and effective average wind soeed the maximum significant wave height and period were found to be:
Hs 9.9 feet
=
Ts 7.7 seconds
=
The controlling values of effective fetch, Fe, average depth, Dav, and wind speed, Vav, for the significant wave height and 11 g
period were 5 statute miles (fetch miles 5 to 10), 24 feet, and 116 miles an hour, respectively. The above wave would reach and break on the plant site fill embankment; the effective depth at the toe of the fill is estimated to be about ll.l+ feet during peak wind tide which would allow a breaking wave height of 8.9 ft. (say 9 0 ft.) to reach the embankment.
CONCLUSIONS i
Based on the results of the analysis presented herein the following conclusions have been drawn:
1.
That an occurrence of a maximum probable hurricane with C.P.I. of 26.00 inches may be possible but is a, significantly rare ovent and highly improbable, having a return frequency on the order of 10,000 years.
2.
That assuming a severe hurricane of C.P.I. = 26.00 inches could and did occur on an exact cath, remaining stationary or nearly so just offshore of the Crystal River nuclear nower olant site, the physical dimensions of the storm would be such as to place a crobable uoper limit on the magnitude of tide that could be generated.
3.
That the ceak wind tide elevation, or maximum nossible tide, capable of being generated at the Crystal River nuclear power plant site is on the order of 21.4 feet MLW.
4.
T?at the si;;nificant wave height and period concurrent O
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with peak tide occurrence at the Crystal River site would be e
on the order of 9.0 feet and 7.7 seconds, respectively.
Submitted by:
Theodore E. Haeussner It/ raulic Engineer Consultant d
Jacksonville, Florida June 4, 1967 6
15 0320 9
BIBLIO2APHY - REFERENCES 1.
H. E. draham, D. E. Nunn, N.H.R.P. Report No. 33
" Meteorological Considerations Pertinent to Standard Project Hurricane, Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States".
2.
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District.
" Analysis of Hurricane Problems in Coastal Areas of Florida", Survey Reoort, September 29, 1961.
3.
U. S. Wea ther Bureau Memorandum No. HUR 7-50,
" Standard Project Hurricane Parameters - Zone A".
4.
U. S. Army Coastal Engineering Research Center,
" Shore Protection Planning and Design", Tecinical Report No. 4, Third Edition,1966, pp.137-143.
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Observed tide data - Cedar Keys, Fla.
19 S.P.H. Tide - Crystal Ri"er, Fla.
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I GENERAL COMPUTATION SHEET j
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M.P.H. DATA AMD BACE-UP COMSUTATIONS b
v PROCEDURES:
1.
Design Hurricano and Tide Data.
a.
Utilizing Exhibit 3 data construct symmetrical isovel pattern as shown on Exhibit 4.
b.
Construct wind directions from standard procedures given in reference 1.
c.
Determine angle between wind direction and fetch (assuming fetch to be constructed parallel to. storm path);
obtain cosine of angle and tabulate.
d.
Position isovel pattern over area after determining critical combination of depth and wind speed.
e.
Plot isolines of pressure effect.
f.
Select fetch traverses (used 4 traverses on 50-mile length fetches); locate fetch segments by 1-mile intervals with mile 0 at plant site, g.
Determine values of depth, absolute wind speed, effective wind comnenent, and oressure effect for each mile of traverse at intercepts. Tabulate and obtain overall average by 1-mile increments. (See pages 1 and 2 attached.)
h.
Evaluate extent of change in basic data with fetch p
distance to select degree of refinement and fetch length k,/
increments to be used in comoutations.
- i. Perform tide commutations beginning with at,oropriate starting elevation El (see Exhibit 6).
Determine A S, S -
i 2
(See page 3 attached.)
- j. Repeat successive computations evaluating effective depth over fetch by including A pressure effect and 4 S,
i k.
Accumulate A Si value-to obtain S2 values, until computa tions are comnleted and E2 (max. tide elevation at fetch 0) has been reached.
2.
Design Hurricane 7(ave Data, a.
As noted in the basic writeup on wave analysis the procedures used followed those recommended in reference 4 for shallow water wave generation.
b.
Average values of effective wind speed and death were obtained over various fetch lengths and applied in figures 1-35 through 1-43 to obtain significant wave heights and periods, Resultant data are shown on nage @of the attached c.
computation sheets, s
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