ML19276H380
| ML19276H380 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crane, Catawba  |
| Issue date: | 11/09/1973 |
| From: | US ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION (AEC) |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19276H378 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 7910160715 | |
| Download: ML19276H380 (11) | |
Text
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Rathbun:L:CB:cls 1/9/73 JobJ566 PREPARED FOR THREE MILE ISLAND HEALTH COSTS DUE TO LOW LEVEL RADIATION In the course of routine operation of nuclear power reactors, radioactive material is produced by fission and by neutron-activation reactions of metals and other material within the reactor system.
The minute amounts of gaseous and liquid radioactive wastes-which enter the waste streams are monitored and processed within the plant to minimize the cmount of these radionuclides. Thus, the gaceous and liquid wastes which will be released to the atacaphere and to the Susquehanna River, respectively, from the TMI Nuclear Plant will be at extremely low concentrations and are released under carefully controlled conditions.
The quantity of radioactivity to be released to the environment will be a small fraction of the limits set forth in 10 CFR Part 20 of the Cocaission's Regulations, and the amounts will be kept as low as practicable in accordance with 10 CFR Part 50.36a.
As stated in the Final Environmental Impact Statement, " Environmental radioactivity levels due to releases to of f site areas in the vicinity of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant elli result in radiation doses to man which are less than the variations in the natural back;;round d sa."
Naturally occurring external and internal sources of radiation results in an average annual bachground dose of appre::i:2tel:. 125 = rem in the vicinity of the plant.
The cunulative dose to the population living within 30 miles of the plant (1,868,000 based on 1970 census) due to awn;;e annual natural backy,round radiation is appro:cinatel:, 233,000 can-ran.
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. The radiation exposure to this same population due to gaseous and liquid ef fluents from normal operation of the plant is estimated to "
31 man-rem.
The annual radiation dose to the public due to normal operation of the
' hat reca!.ved from natural background plar.t will be less than.01 percent t
radiation.
Given a range of potential physiological consequences, it is not an easy task to essign monetary values to: the range of impacts. Economic valuation of curtailment of a lif e might be estimated in terms of loss of earnings and family livelihood.
However, the individual's social and economic value must include assessment of the different roles which he plays.
The economic costs of impaired health through low level radiation must also be considered.
In order that a more meaningful estimate social costs of low level
~
radiation exposure be included in cost-benefit considerations, the physiological effec.
due to exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation should be assessed.
The somatic and genetic effects of low level radiation on a population area most frequently detectable only in a statistical sense.
In addition, radiation induced effects are indistinguishable from naturally occurring effects or maladies in the population.
Still further, in order to estimate the effects of exposure to lo'..
level radiation, the current practice is to extrapolate the results from exposures at high levels and a comprehensive discussion of 1420 069
s this subject is contained in the Report of the Advisory Co==ittee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, or the so-called BEIR 1
report.
With respect to risk estimates for specific genetic conditions, the BEIR report states:
It is calculated that the effect of 170 mrec per year (or 5 rem per 30-year reproduction generation) would cause in the first generation between 100 and 1800 cases of serious, dominant or x-linked diseases and defects per year (assu=ing 3.6 million births annually in the U.S.).
In addition to the potential of causing single gene defects and chromosome aberrations is the induction of congenital abnormalities and constitutional diseasea which are partly genetic.
When both congenital and constitutional defects are included, the BEIR report states:
It is estimated that the :stal incidence from all these including those in...
(risks esticates for specific genetic conditions) above, would be between 1100 and 27,000 per year at equilibrium (agaia, based on 3.6 million births).
1 Sational Academy of Science, National Research Council, Report of the Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing P.adiations, The Ef fects on Populations of E:cosure to Lc,, Levels of Ionizing Radiation, (1972).
- Ibid, p.
1.
3 2
.J=u :==, v. -.
y4,9 979
With reference to somatic effects, the BEIR report states:
Based on a knowledge of mechanisms (admittedly incomplete) it must be stated that tumor induc-tion as a result of radiation injury to one or a few cells of the body cannot be excluded.
Risk estimates have been made baced on this premise and using linear extrapolation from the data from the "g y A-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Hagusuki, from certain groups of patients irradiated therapeutically, and from groups occupationally exposed.
Such cal-culations based on these data from irradiated humans leads to the prediction that additional exposures' of the U.S. population of 5 rem per 30 years would cause from roughly 3,000 to 15,000 cancer deaths annually, depending on the assumptions used in the calcula tions.
The Commitcee considers the most likely estimate to be approximately 6,000 cancer deaths annualy, Using the cance; induced annual death rate cited above in the BEIR report for somatic effects (6 x 10 deaths /2 x 10 people x.170 rem) and the average annual radiation dose to a resident within 50 miles of the Three Mile Island plant (2.000017 ret), the statistical risk of
-9 death of 2.93 x 10 per year per person cay be calculated for the residents within 50 miles of the Three Mile Island plant.
Using this risk in conjunction with the local population of 1.8 million leads co the conclusion that substantially less than one death is expected over the life of the plant due to low level ionizing radiatica.
Using the means of the BEIR report estimates for the incidence of single gene defects, chromosome aberrations and congenital abacroalities, an 1420 071 4
(bid, p.
2.
. estimate of the incidence of these conditions in the local population may be made.
The annual incidence for these diseases and conditions is 6.86 x 10'.
Using this incidence in conjunction with the local population leads to the conclusion that less than one instance of t'rese types of conditions and diseases is expected over the life of the plant.
Although the BEIR report does not estimate the monetary values per man-rem, information from diverse source: is available bearing on this aspect of the social valuation of radiation risk.
In a report in 1971, at a symposium sponsored by the Western Interstate Nuclear Board, Mr. Harry J. Otway of Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory surveyed the work of various researchers in this field as well as other relevant material.
His study indicated that the range of valuation of radiation risk is $10-S600 per man-rem.
While these values represented the outer bounds of the estimates, Otway cites that the most typical range of radiation risk valuation lies between $30-S300 per man-rem.
If the largest range of values of radiation risk are ysed in conjunction with the previously cited estimated annual radiation exposure of 31 man-rem fer the Three M12 a Island site, the annual potential social costs will be less than S18,600 per year.
f 5
l es at i!arry J. Otway, "The Quantification of Social Valuch / ' n the symposium entitled, "O,ic.k Versus Denefit Analy s is'-
lu-
- r. or Dream?" Los.(lamos Scientific Laboratorj, '!e. 'b:.ico (1971).
gg./.. r THE STAFF'S PPLDIENTAL TESTDIONY RELATIVE
/
~^
ASLB CONTENTION "Whether, with respect to routine operations and pcssible accidents, the radiation exposures due to effluent releases have been properly considered in the Environmental Statement in arriving at a cost-benefit balancing."
In the course of routine operation of nuclear power reactors, radio-active material is produced by fission and by neutron-activation reactions The minute of metals and other material within. the reactor system.
amounts of gaseous and liquid vastas which enter the waste streams are monitored and processed within the plant to minimice the amount of these Thus, the gaseous and liquid wastes which will be released radionuclidec.
to the atmosphere and to Lake Wylie, respectively, from the Catawba Nuclear Station will be at extre=ely low concentrations and are released under carefully controlled conditions.
The quantity of radioactivity to be released to the environment will be a small fraction of the limits set forth in 10 CFR Part 20 of the Co Regulations, and the amounts will be kept as low as practicable in accordance with 10 CFR Part 50.36a.
1A20 073
_2-As stated in the Final Environ = ental I= pact Statement, " Operation of the Catawba Station will be an extremely minor contributor to the radiation dose the persons living in the area nor= ally receive from natural background radiation." Naturally occurring external and internal sources of radiation results in an average annual background dose of approxi=ately 75 mres in the vicinity of the plant.
The cumulative dose to the population living within 50 miles of the plant in 1980 (approximately 1,437,000) due to average annual natural background radiation is approximately The radiation exposure to this same population due to 108,000 man-rem.
gaseous and liquid effluents from normal operation of the plant is estimated to be N20 man-rem. The annual radiation dose to the public due to normal operation of the plant will be approximately 0.02 percent of that received from natural background radiation.
Given a range of potential physiological consequences, it is not an easy task to assign monetary values to the range of impacts.
Economic valuation of curtailment of a life night be estimated in ter=s of loss of earnings and family livelihood. However, the individual's social and econccic value cost include assess =ent of the different roles which he plays.
The economic costs of i= paired health through icw level radiation cust also be considered.
!420 074
In order that a more meaningful estimate of the social costs of low level radiation exposure be included in cost-benefit considerations, the physiological effects due to exposure to low levels of ionizing radi-The somatic and genetic effectc of low level ation should be assessed.
radiation on a population are most frequently detectable only in a In addition, radiation induced effects are indistin-statistical sense.
guishable from naturally occurring effects or maladies in the population.
Still further, in order to esti= ate. the effects of exposure to 16w level radiation, the current practice is to extrapolate the results from exposures at high levels and a co=prehensive discussion of this subject is contained in the Report of the Advisory Committee on the Biological This Ef f ects of Iouizing Radiations, or the so-called SEIR report.
report takes it plain that simple linear interpolation between the lowest reliable dose data and the spontaneous or zero dose rate is It is justified on prag=atic grounds as a basis for risk estination.
is likely further stated that the linear model, if not always correct, to err on the safe side since it fails to take into account the possi-bility of biological repair af ter the event has occurred, particularly at low dose rates.
the BEIR to risk esticates for specific genetic conditions, With respect 2
report states:
National Academy of Science, National Research Council, Report of the 1
Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, (1972).
The Effects en Populations of Low Levels of Ionizina Radiation,
,' Ib id., p. 1.
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_4-It is calculated that the effect of 170 mre= per year (or 5 rem per 30-year reproduction generation) would cause in the first generation between 100 and 1800 cases of serious, dominant or x-linked diseases and defects per year (assuning 3.6 million births annually in the U.S.).
In addition to the potential of causing single gene defects and chromosome aberrations is the induction of congenital abnor=alities and constitutional diseases which are partly genetic.
When both congenital and constitutional defects are included, the EEIR report states:
It is esticated that the tctal incidence fro: all these including those in...
(risks estimates for specific genetic conditions) above, would be between 1100 and 27,000 per year at equilibriu= (again, based on 3.6 million births).
With reference to socatic effects, the BEIR report states:
Based on a knowledge of mechanis=s (ad=ittedly incomplete) it cust be stated that tu=or induction as a result of radiation injury to one or a few cells of the body cannot be excluded.
Risk esticates have been made based on this pre =ise and using linear extrapolation from the data from the A-bo=b survivors of Hiroshi=a and Nagasaki, froc certain groups of patients irradiated therapeutically, and from groups occupationally exposed.
Such cal-culations based on these data fro: irradiated humans leads to the prediction that additional exposures of the U.S. population of 5 res per 20 years would cause from roughly 3,000 to 15,000 3 Ibid., p.2.
4 Ibid., p. 2.
!A20 076
m
^
cancer deaths annually, depending on the assu=ptions used in the calculations.
The Committee considers the most likely estimate to be approxi=ately 6,000 cancer deaths annually,...
Using the cancer induced annual death rate cited above in the BEIR report 3
8 for somatic effects (6 x 10 deaths /2.05 x 10 people x.170 rem) and the average annual radiation dose to a resident within 50 miles of the Carawba Station (.000014 rem), the statistical risk of death of 2.41 x
-9 10 per year per person may be calculated for the residents within 50 miles of the Catawba Station.
Using this risk in con. junction with the local population of 1.44 million leads to the conclusion that sub-stantially less than one death is expected over the life of the plant due to low level ionizing radiation.
Using the means of the BEIR report esticates for the incidence of' single gene defects, chromosome aberrations and congenital abnormalities, an estimata of the incidence of these conditions in the local population may be made.
The annual incidence for these diseases and conditions is 5.64 x 10'.
Using this incidence in conjunction with the local popu-lation leads to the conclusion that less than one instance of these types of conditions and diseases is expected over the life of the plant.
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m 6
Although the BEIR report does not estimate the monetary values per man-rem, information from diverse sources is available bearing on this aspect of the social valuation of radiation risk.
In a report in 1971, at a sy=posium sponsored by the Western Interstate Nuclear Board, Mr. Harry J. Otway of Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory surveyed the work of various re.caare:.ers in this field as well as other relevant material.5 His study indicated that the range of valuation of radiation-risk is
$10-$600 per man-rem.
While these values represented the outer bounds of the esti=ates, Otway cites that the most typical range.of radiation
~
risk valuation lies between $30-S300 r.er =an-rem.
If the largest range of values of radiation risk are used in conjunction with the previously cited estinated annual radiation exposure of %20 man-ren for the Catawba site, the annual potential social costs will be less than $12,000 per year.
Based on this, the staff believes the societal cost to be minimal rela-tive to the benefits which will accrue to the general public from the operation of the Catawba Nuclear Station.
Harry J. Otway, "The Quantification of Social Values," prescated at the symposiun entitled, " Risk Versus Benefit Analvsis:
Solution or Drea-?"
Los Alancs 3cientific Laborator), ';ew 'icxico (1971).
Ii20 078
.