ML19275G116
| ML19275G116 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Beaver Valley, Millstone, Indian Point, Fermi, Seabrook, Limerick, Turkey Point, Zion, Bailly  |
| Issue date: | 04/30/1980 |
| From: | Grimes B Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | Harold Denton Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8006090239 | |
| Download: ML19275G116 (9) | |
Text
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- Harold R. Denten. Director, Office of fluclear Reactor Regulation FR0!!:
Brian Grimes, Program Director, Energency Preparedness Program Office SU3 JECT:
CNIDIDATE SITES FOR RISK STUDIES As you rewested, we have exanined sites which night to candidates f:r ri:%
studies siailm to those requested of Indian Foint cad Zica. Sevaral cc:uid:ra-cions co: ear ;o cear on tne choica of si n.
First, tne tetai pooulation within 10 miles and 50 miles, wisich would affect the expected nuacer of early fatalities and the excected number of latent cancer fatalitic:, respectively. :iecond, any special dif ficulties involved in evacuating the population out to about 10 miles which would affect both early and late effects.
Because we have not yet received evacuation time estimates from piants under construction, our list of candidate sites is based on the 10 and 50 mile populatica figures. Some additional sites may be added fter the evacuatica tine estinates are received from licensees and FCG.
Tablo 1 ranks the sites with high total present (1970) or projected (year 2000) populations at both 10 ana 50 miles. The cutoff used was an average population density of about 400 people per square mile. Table 2 is a more extensive listing of sites that have present or projected high populations at either 10 or 50 miles.
Two operatin; plants (Indian l'oint and Zion) are indicated in Table 1 to have high current populations within 10 and 50 miles and three other sites are projected to increase to high populations by the year 2000. Because these plants do not currently present an apparent high risk at both distances censidered, because we do not have high confidence in the population projections, and because measures such as the filtered vented containment concept will remain an option later in plant life, we recomend that resources not be expended on detailed risk evaluations for these sites at this time.
Two pla[t's under construction, Limerick and Femi, are indicated by Table 1 to have high present populations at both 10 and 50 miles.
In addition, two plants which are in the early stages of construction, Bailly and Seabrook, are indicated to have high projected populations. These sites are considered A '
candidates for risk studies because a decision to abandon the sites is still S,,e a possible option.
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Harold R. Denton ' " ' '
In addition. R. Clend cf th: Pr t:bal':ti:.".:::::nent Or2n h *~ th: 0"0?
Research recotraends that the highest cector ;cpulation within 10 :nd 50 7.il:3, which would aff :t the maximum number of nealth effect: possible d: a par:.': ' '
site from a spectrum of accidents, be used as an additional perspective on rick. These sites would, of course, have prcportionally lc rer consr.quare::
in other sectors. He also indicates that tha sac:Or popul :icn a; 2; -i'.;: i; a good relative indicator of maximum property damage. This infornation is given in Table 3.
Another perspective on risk is given in Table 4, in which plants are ranked by Site Population Factors (SPF). This is a technique which weig:its pen;;. _c.
population in proportion to the metcorolcgical dit:cr ion with di:;2r. e cru exDresses the result in a fr;ction proportional ta a site with a ur.iform population density of 10C0 pecole per square mile. Th2se facters cclid ce further t;eighted by pou r level, which uculd chang 1 the rder of the 7'ini:
in Table 4 semowhat. Transient peculation is n: considared in thi: ::-'
and pl:nts such as Cailly and Sc: brock would n:St to 52 7'" n a 5':'er ---'" -
considering transient pcaulation.
The following are the highest priority candidate sites for risk studies:
Limerick Fenai Bailly Seabrook This judgment is based primnrily on the total populations at 10 and 50 milcs which are indicators of total risk from the site.
Brian K. Grimes, Program Director Emergency Preparedness Program Office Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Enclosures.
DISTRIBUTION:
1.
Table 1 Central Files 2.
Table 2 NRR Reading 3.
Table 3 EPP0 Reading 4.
Table 4 BJYoungblood ASchwencer OLB #3 TNovak Glainas RMattson Dross SHanauer RVollmer O F F.s C E.
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Farold P.. Denton c: w/cnciesur;;;
E. G. Case D. Eisenhut J. 01shinski R. 31cnd
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.i. Houston L. Soffer R. Priice R. Todesco I
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TABLE 1 Operating Sites with present (1970) or'orof ected (2000) high peculation at both 10 and 50 miles 1.
Indian Point 2.
Zion 3.
Turkey Point (projected) 4.
Millstone (projected) 5.
Beaver Valley (projected)
CP Sites with present or projected high population at both 10 and 50 miles 1.
Limerick 2.
Fermi 3.
Bailly (projected) 4.
Seabrook(projected)
I-e
TABLE 2 HIGH POPULATION SITES (Based on Tables 1-4 of NUREG-0348)
A.
Based on 1970 census data for 10 miles.
1970 2000 1.
Indian Point 220,000 290,000 2.
Zion 190,000 290,000 3.
Limerick (CP) 150,000 220,000 4.
Three Mile Island
- 140,000 21n,000 5.
Fermi (CP) 130,000 240,000 B.
Additional sites based on year 2000 for 10 miles.
1970 2000 1.
Turkey Point 88,000 240,000 2.
Millstone 110,000 150,000 3.
Beaver Valley 110,000 130,000 4.
Bailly (CP) 84,000 130,000 5.
Seabrook (CP) 79,000 130,000 C.
Based on 1970 census data for 50 miles.
1970 2000 1.
Indian Point 17,000,000 24,000,000 2.
Zion 7,100,000 11,000,000 3.
Limerick (CP) 7,000,000 10,000,000 5
4.
Bailly (CP) 6,700,000 10,000,000 5.
Dresden**
6,300,000 13,000,000
- Does not appear in 50 mile high pcpulation lists.
- Does not appear in 10 mile high peculation lists.
e
. C.
Based on 1970 census data for 50 miles.
(Continued) 1970 2000 6.
Fermi (CP) 5,400,000 9,600,000 7.
Shoreham**
(CP) 4,900,000 7,500,000 8.
Salem **
4,800,000 6,800,000 9.
Pilgrim **
(+CP) 4,200,000 5,900,000
- 10. Peach Bottom **
4,100,000 6,400,000
- 11. Beaver Valley 3,900,000 5,000,000
- 12. Seabrook (CP) 3,600,000 5,800,000
- 13. San Onofre**
3,600,000 5,600,000
- 14. Haddam Neck **
3,300,000 6,700,000
- 15. Oyster Creek **
3,300,000 5,800,000 D.
Additional Sites based on year 2000 projection for 50 miles.
1970 2000 1.
Turkey Point 1,700,000 4,500,000 2.
Millstone 2,600,000 3,700,000 3.
Pe rry*
- 2,600,000 3,500,000
- 0o not appear in 10 mile high population lists.
V
TABLE 3 SITES WITH HIGHEST SECTOR POPULATIONS A.
Based on 1970 census data at 10 miles 1.
Zion 65,000; 43,000; 41,000 2.
Millstone 39,000 3.
Duane Arnold 38,000 4.
Three Mile Island 35,000 5.
Indian Point 32,000 6.
Trojan 32,000 7.
Beaver Valley 31,000; 31,000 8.
Indian Point 30,000; 30,000 B.
Based on 1970 census data at 30 miles 1.
Indian Point 1,500,000; 820,000 2.
Limerick 1,300,000; 950,000 3.
Bailly 900,000 4.
Fermi 800,000; 770,000 5.
Waterford 700,000 C.
Based on 1970 census data at 50 miles 1.
Indian Point 8,000,000; 2,900,000; 2,300,000 2.
Dresden 3,300,000 3.
Bailly 3,200,000 4.
Zion 3,200,000 6.
Salem 2,700,000 6.
Shoreham 2,100,000 7.
Fermi 2,100,000 i
I
TABLE 4 SITES WITH HIGHEST SITE POPULATION FACTORS (SPF)
(SPF defined as in WASH-1235)
A.
Based on high SPF at 10 miles for 1970 census data SPF SPF x Power Level 1.
Indian Point 2/3
.327 989.2 2.
Limerick 1/2
.288 948.4 3.
Zion
.286 929.5 4.
Millstone 2
.206 527.4 5.
Three Mile Island 2
.176 487.9 6.
Fermi 2
.171 563.1 7.
Beaver Valley
.161 427 8.
Seabrook
.137 467.3 B.
Based on high SPF at 30 miles for 1970 census data SPF SPF x Power Level 1.
Indian Poir'.
.543 1642.6 2.
Limeri'. 1/2
.507 1669.5 3.
Fe r'. '
.316 1040.6 4.
Zi. -
.281 913 5.
Bailly
.261 503.9 6.
Beaver Valley
.251 665.7 7.
Shoreham
.222 540.8 8.
Three Mile Island 2
.205 568.3 9.
Haddam Neck
.219 399.7
- 10. Seabrook
.171 584.3
- 11. Millstone 2
.165 422.4 e
C.
Based on high SPF at 50 miles for 1970 census data SPF SPF x Power Level 1.
Indian Point
.899 2719.5 2.
Limerick
.515 1695.9 3.
Zion
.423 1374.7 4
Bailly
.365 705.8 5.
Fermi 2
.359 1182.2 6.
Shoreham
.278 677.2 7.
Beaver Valley
.276 713.9 8.
Dresden 2/3
.251 634.3 9.
Seabrook
.224 765.4
- 10. Salem
.219 731
- 11. Haddam Neck
.219 399.7
- 12. Pilgrim 1
.205 409.6
- 13. Millstone 2
.199 509.4
- 14. Three Mile Island 2
.189 523.9 e
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