ML19257D791
| ML19257D791 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Trojan File:Portland General Electric icon.png |
| Issue date: | 01/31/1980 |
| From: | PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO. |
| To: | |
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| ML19257D790 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8002060474 | |
| Download: ML19257D791 (26) | |
Text
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- V TROJAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR COLUMBIA COUNTY, OREGON AND COWLITZ COUNTY, WASHINGTON POR" LAND GENERAL ELECTRIC January, 1980 1928 300 80 02 06 0 4 7+
TABLE OF CCNTENTS SECTION PAGE I.
INTRODUCTION 1
II.
BACKGROUND 2
III.
METHODOLOGY 5
IV.
TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE EVACUATION OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC 7
A. EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 2-1/2 MILES 7
B. EVACUATION FROM 2-1/2 TO 5 MILES 8
C. EVACUATION FROM S TO 10 MILES 8
D. EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 5 MILES 9
E. EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 10 MILES 9
F. GENERAL
SUMMARY
OF EVACUATION SCENARIOS 10 V.
TIME ESTIMATES FOR SPECIAL FACILITIES EVACUATION 11 VI.
TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION CONFIRMATION 12 VII.
TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION NOTIFICATION 13 e-e 1928 301
I.
INTRODUCTION This report has been prepared in response to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's request for evacuation time estimates contained in the November 29, 1979, letter from Mr. Brian K. Grimes.
Contained in this report are the various requested evacuation time estimates for the area associated with the plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) for the Trojan Nuclear Plant.
The evacuation time estimates include the evacuation of the general public during normal and adverse weather conditions, the evacuation of special facilities during normal and adverse weather conditions, the time required for confirmation of evacuation, and the time required to notify the public to evacuate.
These preliminary evacuation time estimates are based upon conservative assumptions and, as such, are believed to conservatively reflect the time frames necessary to implement the evacuation protective response option.
A detailed evacuation plan is being prepared in conjunction with the radiological emergency response plans for Columbia County, Oregon and Cowlitz County, Washington.
It is expected that the finalized evacuation time estimates that will be presented in the detailed evacuation plan will result in a reduction of the present time estimates.
In preparing this report, the Emergency Services Offic'es for Columbia County and Cowlitz County were contacted.
The appropriate county emergency planning officials responsible for evacuation planning have had a opportunity to review and discuss the assumptions, methodology, and conclusions of this report.
As a re'sult of thesd reviews and discussions no area of disagreement has been identified.
1928 302 1 1
I
II.
BACKGROUND The Trojan Nuclear Plant is located on the Columbia River in Columbia County, Oregon, approximately seven miles south-southeast of the Longview-Kelso, Washington urban area.
This report describes evacuation time estimates for the ten-mile area covered by the clume exposure pathway EPS for Columbia County, Oregon, and Cowlitz County, Washington.
This area is shown on Figure 1.
Projected 1980 population distributions within the 10-mile area for Columbia County, Oregon and Cowlit:
County, Washington, are utilized in this report.
The population is broken down by 22-1/2 sectors as shown in Table 1.
For the total population of 64,626, 31,000 are estimated to reside in Longview, Washington, and 11,000 in Kelso, Washington.
Both of these communities are located within the 5 to 10 mile area.
For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that the average vehicle occupancy would he three persons and this factor was used to obtain the vehicle distribution information as shown in Table 2.
The total number of vehicles to be evacuated from within the 10-mile area is estimated to be 21,559.
0 Using the standard 16 emergency planning 22-1/2 radial sectors as a base, 12 primary evacuation sectors are defined for this analysis as shown in Table 3.
Figure 1 illustrates the area enccmpassed by the 12 primary evacuation sectors.
For the O to 2-1/2 mile area, two 180 sectors are used for evacuation oriented perpendicular to the prevailing winds in the river valley.
Two alternate 180 sectors,were defined,.
1928 303
oriented toward the mountains in the event an abnormal wind shift would require an evacuation in this direction.
The distance of 2-1/2 miles was selected for the outer boundary of the 180 evacuation sectors because this distance is equivalent to the low population zone (LP*) distance that has been used previously in emergency planning for Trojan.
There are four 90 sectors within the 2-1/2 mile to 5 mile area as well as four 90 sectors in the 5 to 10 mile area.
Sectors III, V, VII and IX are oriented to encompass the prevailing wind direction in the Columbia River Vallev.
Twenty-one evacuation scenarios have been developed based on the 12 primary evacuation sectors.
A summarv of the ',
evacuation scenarios is listed in Table 4.
The first 10 scenarios represent the evacuation times for the two 180 sectots and the eight 90 sectors.
Scenarios 11 and 12 represent rotating Sectors I and II 90" to be oriented perpendicular with the nonprevailing wind direction toward the mountains (see Figure 1, Note 1).
The remaining nine scenarios -- 13 through 21 --
represent various combinations of the primary evacuation sectors north and south along the prevailing wind direction in the Columbia River Valley and east and west toward the mountains.
The capacity figures utilized in this analysis for county roads, state highways and freeways were selected to be conservatively low and to provide allowances for congestion, stop signs, breakdowns, some opcosing traffic, etc.
In reference to the Interstate 5 freeway in the Longview-Kelso urban area with traffic entering t,he freeway at three separate locations, namely the Longview "Y", Allen S treet, and Kelso Avenue, a closely controlled situation would be necess'ary to
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~
1928 304
_3_
S
effectively utilize each of the three northbound lanes.
Also, it is necessary for some of the traffic from the more heavily p,pulated Longview area to cross the existing Main Street-Allen Bridge over the Cowlitz River, which is a substandard two-lane facility.
e 1928 305
III.
METHODOLOGY The evacuation time estimates presented in this report were developed by a professional traffic engineering consulting firm.
During the preparation of this report, the traffic consultant performed a helicopter reconnaissance of the 10-mile evacuation area.
The evacuation speeds used in these analyses were selected bv the traffic consultant based upon their previous experience in performing traffic control and evacuation studies as well as on discussions with the local emergency planning officials.
The evacuation speed for normal conditions was assumed to be 25 mph on all evacuation routes.
For adverse weather conditions, where marginally possible road conditions exist, the speed was lowered to 15 mph.
Seven evacuation routes are used in this analysis.
These routes are summarized in Table 5.
The primary evacuation route in Oregon is U.S.
30 to the northwest and also to the south.
A small percentage of vehicles in the 5 to 10 mile Sector X are proposed to be evacuated southerly along Columbia County Road 2005.
For Washington, the primary evacuation route is Interstate 5 to the north and to the south.
Also utili:ed to assist in evacuating the Longview area are Washington State Route 4, northwesteriv along the Columbia River and Washington State Route 411, northernly along the Cowlit: River.
The capacity figures utilized in this analysis are 600 vehicles per hour in the direction of evacuating travel for county roads and 900 vehicles per hour in the direction of evacuating traffic for state highways.
This 900 vehicle per hour figure is also used for the Interstate 5 freeway in the Longview-Kelso area.
For 1928 306
freeway travel southerly from the Trojan Nuclear Plant, a capacity figure of 1200 vehicles *er hour per lane is utilized.
For a thorough discursion of highway capacity, refer to the Hichway Capacity Manual (Special Report 87, Highway Research Board, 1965).
For all Ftate highways and the one county road employed in the evacuation procedures, only the outbound lane for these two-lane f acilities is assumed to have evacuating vehicles.
The inbound, or opposing lane, is to be kept open to handle some traffic, such as emergencv vehicles, and to allow for passing maneuvers that may be needed due to breakdown of vehicles.
For the Interstate 5 freeway in Washington, it is assumed that three outbound lanes would be available for evacuating traffic.
In the Longview-Kelso urban area, only two northbound lanes are now available.
However, construction is underway to improve the freeway from the Longview "Y"
northerly to the existing six-lane section, and it is estimated that the new six-lane freeway will be completed prior to the end of 1980.
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6 1928 307
IV.
TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE EVACUATION OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC This section details evacuation routes and time estimates for the various evacuation scenarios.
The evacuation time estimates developed here represent the time required to evacuate a particular sector after the public has been notified that an evacuation is required.
Estimates of the notification time requirements for the general public in the evacuation sectors of Columbia County, Oregon and Cowlit: County, Washington are discussed in Section VII.
Evacuation time estimates are presented in this section for evacuations during both normal and adverse weather conditions.
The evacuation times developed here represent the thee until the last evacuee in a particular evacuation scenario is at least 11 miles from the Trojan Nuclear Plant.
Tables 6 through 10 summarize the evacuation data and the estimated evacuation times for the twenty-one evacuation scenarios.
The number of vehicles assigned to each evacuation route is listed, along with the associated service time and travel time.
The service time is the period of time it would take for all vehicles to start their evacuation, if everyone tried to start simultaneously.
The service time, expressed in minutes is a measure of the demand placed on the evacuation route, divided by the capacity of the route in question.
The total time represents the maximum time required for the last evacuee and is the sum of the service time and the travel time.
IV.A.
EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 2-1/2 MILES Table 6 summarizes the evacuation of the O to 2-1/2. mile sectors f or Scer.arios 1, 2, 11, 12, and 13.
There are an,
1928 308
estimated 432 vehicles to be evacuated from these O to 2-1/2-mile sectors.
Scenarios 1 and 2 are oriented north and south respectively.
Scenarios 11 and 12 are oriented east and west respectively.. Scenario 13 represents the evacuation for the entire 360 area within 2-1/2 miles of the Trojan Nuclear Plant.
As can be seen from Table 6, the maximum evacuation time for Scenario 13 is approximately 41 minutes along Route A, or U.S. 30 northwest on the Oregon side and the maximum evacuation time for Cowlitz county in Washington is 33 minutes southerly along Interstate 5.
IV.B.
EVACUATION FROM 2-1/2 TO 5 MILES A su= mary of Scenarios 3 through 6 which encompass the evacuation of the 2-1/2 to 5 mile sectors is shown in Table 7.
The maximum evacuation time is approximatelv 86 minutes for Columbia County, Oregon, along U.S. Route 30 in a northwesterly direction in Scenario 3.
In Cowlit:
County, Washington, the maximum evacuation time is approximately 53 minutes in Scenario 4 along Interstate 5 north.
IV.C.
EVACUATION FROM 5 TO 10 MILES The evacuation of the 5 to 10 mile sectors is summarized in Table 8 and includes Scenarios 7 through 10.
In Scenarios 8 through 10, which do not include the Longview-Kelso urban area, the maximum evacuation time is 65 minutes for Scenario 8 in Cowlitz County, Washington, oriented toward the mountains.
The corresponding evacuation times for Columbia County, Oregon, are considerably shorter in the 5 to 10 mile sectors due to the smaller number of people that need to be evacuated.
In Scenario 7, which includes the Longview-Kelso -urban 1928 309
area, three primary evacuation routes were utilized:
Interstate 5 northbound, Washington State Route 4 westbound, and Washington State Route 411 northbound.
The primary route for evacuation is Interstate 5 and three lanes are assumed to be used for evacuation purposes although the third lane is not completed.
The total number of vehicles estimated to be evacuated in Scenario 7 is 15,926.
Approximately 60% of these were assigned to the freeway with the remaining 40% divided about equally between routes 4 and 411.
The maximum evacuation time has been estimated to be slightly over four hours for Scenario 7 along both Route C and Route E.
IV.D.
EVACUATICN FROM 0 TO 5 MILES The evacuation ~of the O to 5 mile sectors is represented as a combination of the O to 2-1/2 mile and the 2-1/2 to 5 mile sectors, as shown in Table 9.
The maximum evacuation time is approximately 103 minutes along Route A, northwesterly on U.S. 30 for Scenario 14 in Oregon.
The corresponding maximum evacuation time in Washington is the evacuation for Scenario 15 where the estimated time to evacuate all vehicles is approximately 56 minutes along Route C on Interstate 5 north.
IV.E.
EVACUATICN FROM 0 TO 10 MILES The evacuation of the O to 10 mile sectors, scenarios 18 through 21, are summarized in Table 10.
The O to 10 mile sectors represent a combination of the O to 2-1/2, 2-1/2 to 5, and 5 to 10 mile sectors.
These are assumed to be evacuated simultaneously.
Scenarios 18 and 20 are oriented along the Columbia River Valley while 19 and 21 are oriented toward the mountains.
The m. *imum evacuation time for Scenario 18, the O to 10 mile sector
_g.
1928 310
containing the critical Longview-Kelso area, is only a few minutes more than that in Scenario 7, which assumes evacuating only the Longview-Kelso area.
IV.F.
GENERAL
SUMMARY
OF EVACUATICN SCENARIOS A summary of the evacuation scenarios as described in Sections IV.A. through IV.E. is presented in Table 11.
For each evacuation scenario the critical evacuation route is indicated along with the estimated maximum evacuation time for both normal and adverse weather conditions.
a -
1928 311
V.
TIM 5 EST! MATES FOR SPECIAL FACILITIES EVACUATICN The preceding evacuation time estimates are applicable for members of the general public, this section discusses the evacuation time escimates for special facilities.
Special facilities for the purpose of this report are defined as those facilities containing individuals for which evacuation by normal means (regular automobile) would not be advisable or feasible.
Under this definition schools within the EPZ are not considered to be special facilities.
The special facilities within the plume exposure pathway EPZ for Trojan conrist of two hospitals and ten nursing /
retirement homes situated in the Longview-Kelso metropolitan area of Cowlit: County, Washington, approximately seven miles north-northwest of Trojan.
There are no special facilities in the plume exposure pathway EPZ witi11n Columbia County, Oregon.
In the event that a special facilities evacuation was necessary, these evacuees would be relocated to medical facilities in the Olympia, Washington, area, approximately 67 miles to the north of the special evacuation area.
The special facilities evacuation times for normal and adverse weather conditions are estimated to be 220 minutes and 281 minutes, reepsetively.
These estimates assume an average evacuation spaed of 40 miles per hour during normal conditions and 25 miles per hour during adverse weather conditions.
Also included in the estimates is a two hour allowance for medical f acility ingress and egress.
The special f acilities evacuation operation will be discussed in detail in the radiological emergency response plan for Cowlit: County..
1928 312
VI.
TIMJ ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION CONFIRMATION In order to determine the completeness or effe tiveness of an evacuation, it is considered necessary
'.o execute a confirmation of evacuation operation.
This confirmation operation will be executed in conjunction with the law-enforcement security patrolling of evacuated areas.
It is estimated that a confirmation time of from one to two hours would be required for evacuation confirmation for each primary evacuation sector.
This operation will be discussed in detail in the radiological emergency response plans for Columbia Counev and Cowlit: County.
Planning for the confirmation of evacuation operation will include consideration of emergency personnel operations in radiation areas, special instruction to the public (i.e. displaying white handkerchiefs or cloths) and search and rescue provisions for reported missing persons.
e N
e.
1928 313
VII.
TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION NOTIFICATION This section presents estimates of the time required to notify the general public in a particular evacuation sector of the need to evacuate.
Table 12 summarizes the evacuation notification time estimates associated with the Trojan plume exposure pathway EPZ.
The estimated times in Table 12 were determined by multiplying the number of households in a particular evacuation sector by time required to notify each household then dividing this total by the number of available emergency notification personnel.
These notification times assume non-simultaneous notification of the primary evacuation sectors.
It is important to note that estimated times for notification and evacuation cannot be directly added since these two operations would be occurring simultaneously.
The notification time estimate for evacuation Sector VII, the Longview-Kelso urban area, assumes employing law-enforcement vehicles using sirens and loudspeakers to alert the public of the existance of an emergency situation and to instruct them to listen to a local radio station for emergency instructions.
Also, several helicopters are available in Cowlitz County, Washington to augment the available emergency notification personnel in both urban and rural areas.
A notification system capable of notifying the general public in the plume EPZ within 15 minutes is presently under development.
Details of the design, deployment and operation of the 15-minute notification will be presented in the radiological emergency response plans for Columbia County and Cowlitz County.
. 1928 314
TABLE 1 PROJECFED 1980 POPUI.ATION WITIIIN 10 MILE RADIUS
- 22-1/2 DIRECTION SECTOR 0 TO 2-1/2 HI.
2-1/2 TO 5 MI.
O TO 5 MI.
5 TO 10 MI.
O TO 10 MI.
Il 1
90 49 139 15,062 15,201 NiiE 2
111 625 736 1,308 2,044 NE 3
88 358 446 477 923 EtJE 4
10 100 110 273 383 E
5 129 216 345 155 500 ESE 6
47 93 140 251 391 SE 7
357 1,415 1,772 569 2,341 SSE 8
56 36 92 961 1,053 S
9, 99 142 241 496 737 SSW 10 43 405 448 208 656 SW 11 76 216 292 208 563 WSW 12 45 107 152 326 478 W
13 48 231 279 301 580 WilW 14 4
266 270 676 946 IJW 15 29 2,125 2,154 689 2,843 IJtJW 16 226 477 703 34,347 35,d50 1,458 6,861 8,319 56,307 64,626 Prom Trojan FSAR i
4 N
CO u
I M
8299712270804794 9
6802638542669148 5
0 0631117322111 396 5
1 5
1 1
O 1
2 T
O I
M 1691240160091 609 5
2359589267700234 7
131 11224 0,41 7,
0 1
5 1
8 O
1 1
T 5
D E
T I
A M
U C
5 7697571,110813085 9
A 4443149385959913 7
V O
21 1
5 1
72 7
E T
2 E
O B
O 2
T I
M E
L S
5 B
E A
L O
7904212285267999 2
T C
T 1023733143737805 5
I 21 5
1 71 3
I 2
/
2 V
1 D
2 ETA M
I I
M TS 2
E
/
1 07043.60935656206 2
333 416131211 17 3
2 4
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2R s
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1T 1234567O90123456 o
C 1111111 s
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TABLE 3 ESTIMATED VEHICLES PER EVACUATION SECTOR 22-1/2 RADIAL EVACUATION RADIAL MILEAGE SECTOR NO.
NUMBER RANGE NO. OF VEHICLES I
1-4, 13-16 0 1/2 205 II 5-12 227 I'
2-7 190*
II' 1, 8-16 242*
III 1, 14-16 2-1/2 -5 974 IV 2-5 435 V
6-9 623 VI 10-13 320 VII 1, 14-16 5 - 10 16,926 VIII 2-5 738 IX 6-9 761 X
10-13 350 21,559
- Not included in total.
Already counted in Sectors I and II.
6 g
1928 317
TABLE 4 EVACUATION SCENARIOS AND SECTORS SCENARIO SECTORS 1
I 2
II 3
III 4
IV 5
V 6
VI 7
VII 8
VIII 9
IX 10 X
11 I'-
12 II' 13 I + II 14 III + I 15 IV + I' 16 V + II 17 VI + II' 18 VII + III + I 19 VIII + IV + I' 20 IX + V + II 21 X + VI + II' 1928 318 e
TABLE 5 EVACUATION ROUTES ROUTE DESCRIPTION A
U.S.
30 NW B
U.S. 30 S C
Interstate 5 N D
Interstate 5 S E
WASH 4 F
WASH 411 G
ORE 2005 G
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e 1928 319
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TABI.E 7 2 1/2 TO 5 HILE EVACUATION Travel Evacuation Evacuation Service Distance Travel Time
- Total Time
- Scenarlo Sectors Routes Vehicles Time
- To 11 Hiles Normal Adverse Normal Adverse 3
III A"
957 64 9
22 36 86 100 b
C 17 1
9 22 36 23 37 37T 4
IV C
363 19 14 34 56 5';
75 D
72 4
15 36 60 40 64 435 5
V B"
60 4
8 20 32 24 36 D
563 9
22 22 36 51 55 623 6
VI A
77 6
14 34 56 40 62 B
243 17 13 32 52 49 69 320
- In Minutes
" Assume 900 vph capacity or 4 see service time per vehicle for evacuation Routes A & B Assume 1200 vph capacity or 3 see service time per vehicle for evacuation Routes C & D m
r0 CD V'
N t
TABLE 8 5 TO 10 MILE EVACUATION Travel Evacuation Evacuation Service Distance Travel Time
- Total Time
- Scenario, Sectors Routes Vehicles Time
- To 11 Hiler! Normal Adverse Normal Adverse 7
VII A"
456 31 6
15 21 46 55 a,d C
10158 226 9
22 36 248 262 E"
3444 230 5
12 20 242 250 F"
2868 192 5
12 20 204 212 16926 8
VIII C
686 21 18 44 72 65 93 a,d D
_52 2
19 46 76 48 78 738 9
IX B"
487 33 6
15 24 48 57 D
274 9
6 15 24 24 33 7EI 10 X
A 101 7
10 24 40 31 47 n
140 10 12 29 48 39 58 G
109 8
8 20 32 28 40 156
- In Minutes
_m s4) a na Assume 9'00 vph capacity or 4 sec service time per vehicle for evacua tion Routes A, B,
CX2 C,
E& F.
bAssume l'200 vph capacity or 3 sec service time per vehicle for evacuation Route D.
Do Abaume 600 vph capacity or 6 sec service time per vehicle for evacuation Route G.
rs) dAssume three lane capacity for evacuation Routes C & D.
TABLE 9 O TO 5 HILE EVACUATION Travel Evacuation Evacuation Service Distance Travel Time
- Total Time
- Scenario pectors Routes Vehicles Time
- To 11 Hiles Normal _ Adverse Normal Adverse 14 III + I A"
1061 71 13 32 52 103 123 b
C 118 6
11 27 44 33 50 1179 15 IV + I' C
432 22 14 34 44 56 56 D
191 10 12 29 48 52 71 623 16 V + II B"
168 12 11 27 48 39 70 D
782 23 12 29 51 52 61 950 17 VI + II' A
211 15 14 34 56 49 71 B
351 24 13 32 52 56 76 562
- In Minutes
" Assume 900 vph capacity or 4 sec service time per vehicle for evacuation Routes A & B.
bAssume 1200 vph capacity or 3 sec service time per vehicle for evacuation Routes C& D.
1 N
CO Nu
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TABLE 11 CRITICAL EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES BY SCENARIO
- EVACUATION CRITICAL EVACUATION TIME IN MINUTES **
S,CENARIO ROU"'E NORMAL ADVERSE 1
A 41 61 2
B 37 56 3
A 86 100 4
C 53 75 5
D 51 55 6
3 49 69 7
C 248 262 8
C 65 93 9
3 48 57 10 3
39 58 11 D
33 50 12 A
41 61 13 A
41 61 14 A
103 123 15 C
56 70 16 D
52 71 17 B
56 76 18 C
250 272 19 C
82 120 20 B
73 92 21 B
62 81 This data is not presented on Figure 1 for reasons of clarity
- Does not include evacuation notification times e
1928:
325
TABLE 12 EVACUATION NOTIFICATION TIME ESTIMATES EVACUATION HOUSEHOLDS NOTIFICATION NOTIFICATION TOTAL TIME SECTOR TO BE FOTIFIED*
TIME **
PERSONNEL (SEE NOTE 11 WASH ORE WASH ORE WASH ORE WASH ORE I
54 101 5
5 10 9
27 57 II 90 81 5
5 10 0
45 45 III 13 718 10 5
40 30 10 120 IV 327 10 40 82 V
423 45 10 10 40 28 106 17 VI 240 5
28 43 VII 12,353 342 10 110 40 86 VIII 554 10 20 277 IX 206 366 10 10 20 40 103 92 X
263 10 40 66
- Assumes four people per household
- Per household notification time in minutes
- Estimated to be 180 minutes; refer to Section VII for a detailed discussion NOTE 1 These time estimates represent only the interim evacuation notification times until January 1, 1981 when the 15-minute notification systems will be operational.
These time estimates cannot be directly added to the evacuation times on Table 11 (see Page 13).
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