ML19242C402
| ML19242C402 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Millstone, Dresden, Palisades, Oyster Creek, Haddam Neck, Ginna, San Onofre, Yankee Rowe, La Crosse, Big Rock Point  |
| Issue date: | 03/08/1979 |
| From: | Levin H Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | Desiree Davis Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| Shared Package | |
| ML13333A398 | List: |
| References | |
| FOIA-79-86, TASK-02-04, TASK-02-04.A, TASK-02-04.B, TASK-02-04.C, TASK-03-06, TASK-2-4.A, TASK-2-4.B, TASK-2-4.C, TASK-3-6, TASK-RR NUDOCS 7908100359 | |
| Download: ML19242C402 (10) | |
Text
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[e fitog%'e n
(JNITED STATES 3i.
7 NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION fI 11 $
W ASHIN GTON. D. C. 20555 MAR 8 1979 h2MORANDUM.FOR:
Don K. Davis, Chief, Systematic Evaluation Program Branch, 00R FROM:
Howard A. Levin, Systematic Evaluation Program Branch, DDR
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
OF MEETING WITH SEP OWNER'S GROUP -
SITE SPECIFIC SPECTRA PROJECT On February 9, 1979, the NRC staff and staff consultants met with representatives of the Systematic Evaluation Program (SEP) Owner's Group (Attendees listed in Enclosure 1), at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Livermore, California, to discuss technical details of the SEP Site Specific Spectra Project (SSSP). The meeting agenda is attachea (Enclosure 2).
The meeting opened with a discussion by Dick Holt, Owner's Group Seismology / Geophysics Consultant, who presented a summary of the Owner's Group work relative to the evaluation of the seismic ground motion input for the SEP facilities. The Owner's Group efforts to date have concentrated on demonstrating the association of seismicity with geologic structure (e.g. mafic plutons) and specifyino a tectonic province map based upon this concept. A report is currentiv in r"e-paration oy Weston Geophysical far presentation to the Ownet's Group in 3-4 weeks.
The Owner's Group representatives indicated that the report will be transmitted to the NRC staff shortly thereafter.
Since Mr Holt is one of the 13 experts being polled in the TERA Seismic Hazard Questionnaire, the opinionsof Weston Geophysical are alre6dy being incorporated into the SSSP.
Don Bernreuter, Lawrence Livermore Laboratery (LLL) SSSP Program Manager presented in detail the technical approach being used to develop a methdology to estimate site specific spectra for the 10 Eastern SEP sites.
An outline of Don Bernreuter's discussion is provided in Enclosure 3.
Larry Wight, TERA SSSP Project Manager, supplemented the presentation with a discussion of methods of data preparation, including the weighting of subjective input and the statis tical treatment of data in the Bayesian seismic hazard computer code.
Leon Reiter. Seiseclogist. GSB/DSE. then discussed the'sensit-ivity stuoies which will be conducted to determina important gomo3 57 526 W
i W AR 9 1979
' Don K. Davis.
T parameters and to refine the seismic hazard model. These studies will provide technical data in a variety of formats to permit a multifaceted look at the results and inturn a licensing decision relative to application in the SEP.
In response to a request by the NRC staff at an Owner's Group meeting on December 7,197G in Bethesda, Maryland, Dick Holt pro-i vided attenuation curves for the following earthquakes (Enclosure 4).
1.
Ossippee, New Hampshire (Dec.1940) 2.
Jornwall-Massena (Sept.1944)
Di.x Holt indicated that he did not have any other attenuation curves which are felt to be reliable or site intensity data sets which could be used to generate new attenuation relations.
The Owner's Group was also asked for any strong motion data sets which could be used to directly develop average and le spectra from real earthquake records for appropriate magnitude and site conditions.
Dick Holt indicated that he cHd not have any other strong motion data sets not already being incorporated in the SSSP, however he would investigate the possibility of obtaining the N. Ambraseys data sets.
The staff indicated that a ceview panel to critically reviev the overall SSSP was under ;onsideration and that any recommendations by the Owner's Group for potential members would be considerea.
The meeting proceeded with a discussion of schedule and milestones of the SSSP. Howard Levin, SEP Seismic Program Manager, SEPB/ DOR, indicated that there would be a 3-4 week slip in completion of the Seismic Hazard Ques +ionnaire milestene to devote more time to technical aspects of the questionnaire. However, this slip is not expected to change the June 1 completion date of the SSSP.
The Owner's Group requested that interim reports documenting the seismic hazard code and the site specific spectra methodology be made a;ailable.
Howard Levin noted that this request would be considered by the NRC staff.
It was indicated that such documentation would be provided at the completion of the technical efforts; however, rrsource and time constrr.ts would make the provision of interim reports difficult.
The seismi izard computer code listing can be made available to the Ownerh u;; however a user's manual is not presently available.
Such a 1 is unde preparation by the John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Stanford University.
Reference was made to a PhD thesis entitled, "A Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Mapping; Developmert of Stable Design Parameters," by Christian P. tiortgag, dated March 1978.
This document in large part addresses the technical concepts under consideration in the SSSP.
/
r.,
I
MAR 8 1579 Don K. Davis.
The NRC staff and its consultants as'Ked the Owner's Group for the specific information identified in Enclosure 5 or any other data they feel would be pertinent to the SSSP C.
Tlf.e b.
M Howarc, A.
vi Systematic Evaluation Program Branch, D0R
Enclosures:
As stated 52()
UNO
ENCLOSURE 1
~
LIST OF ATTENDEES SEP OWNER'S GROUP MEETING SITE SPECIFIC SPECTRA PROJECT (SSSP)
LIVERMORE, CALIFORNIA FEBRI.'\\RY 9, 1979 NRC STAFF Howard A. Levin, Seismic Program Manager, SEPB/ DOR /NRR Leon Reiter, Seismologist, GTSB/DSE/NRR LAWRENCE LIVERMORE LABORATORY Donald Bernreuter, SSSP Manager TERA Lawrence Wight, SSSP Project Manager OWNER'S GROUP Barry Ilberman, SEP Owner's Group Chairman Jack McEwe.1, KMC, Inc.
Richard Hol t, Weston Geophysical,.Inc.
2 - ';
' ? (-
4
ENCLOSURE 2 MEETING AGENDA SEP OWNER'S GROUP MEETING SITE SPECIFIC SPECTRA 'ROJECT (SSSP) r LIVERMORE, CALIFORNIA FEBRUARY 9, 1979 1.
SEP Owner's Group Discussion of Owner's Program 2
NRC/LLL/ TERA Discussion a.
Expert Panel Questionnaire b.
Basis ;or Choosing Weighting Parameters c.
Outline of Approach Used to Develop Site Specific Spectra d.
Form of Outpet e.
Confirmatory Program f.
Technical Input Needs/0wner's Inpu' fl}
!) O 0
ENCLOSURE 3 p.....
i OUTLINE OF APPROACH BEING USED TO DEVELOP SPECTRA FOR THE SEP SITES D. L. BERNREUTER FEBRUARi 6, 1979 l.
D2VELOP BAYESI AN HAZAR) ANALYSIS CODE, SEISMIC DATA BASE, ETC.
2.
DEVELOP DETAILED QUESTIONNAIRE / EXPERT PANEL.
3.
INCLUDE RESPONSE FROM EXPERT PANEL TO QUESTIONNAIRE.
4.
DEFINE SEISMIC SOURCE ZONES FROM 3.
5.
FOR EACH ZONE DEVELOP PDF FOR MAXIMUM EARTHQUAKE BASED ON 3.
6.
FOR EACH ZONE DEVELOP THE PDF FOR THE NUMBER OF EARTHOUAKES OF SIZE li ACCOUNTING FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES IN RATE, NUMBER OF EVENTS, AND MAXIMUM EARIHQUAKE FOR A GIVEN REGION.
PDF DEVELOPED FROM 3 AND 5.
7.
DEVELOP, BASED ON 3, ATTENUATION OF INTENSITY IN iHE EAST AND WESTERN U.S.
STRONG MOTION DATA THE PROBABILITY THAT GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS, 9, AT A SITE ARE 9 2 G GIVEN THAT ONE EVENT OF INTENSITY lo HAS OCCURRED IN REGION Si AT DISTANCE R.
8.
COMBINE 7, 6, AND 3 (WHICH GIVES WEIGHTING FACTORS FOR EACH REGION) TO OBTAIN P(9 2 G) AT SITE FROM ALL SOURCE REGIONS CONSIDERING ALL EARTHQU.-;ES AND UNCERTAINTY.
4 R26 347
9.
usine P(a 1 A), P(v 1 V), P(S (u) _ S (u)) AND USE y
y TO DEVELOP:
S (u) AS A FUNCTION OF 9K A.
y B.
USE P(a 1 A), P(v 1 V) TO SCALE NEWMARK-HALL SPECTRA.
C.
USE RESULTS TO DETERMINE WHAT REGION CONTRIBU MOST TO SEISMIC HAZARD TO SELECT REAL EARTHQ RECORDS AND DIRECTLY DEVELOP AVER.\\GE AND 10 SPECTRA.
D.
USE RECORDS FROM (C) SCALED TO P(a ?_ A) TO DEVELOP FAMILY OF SPECTRA.
10.
REVIEW RESULTS TO DETERMINE IMPORTANT PARAM USE TO REFINE MODEL - OR IF NECESSARY, DEVELOP NEW QUESTIONNAIRE AND EXPAND PANEL ETC.
-RETURN TO 2 OR 4 AND REPEAT AS NECESSARY.
ALSO APPLY ADDITIONAL SITE CORRECTIONS TO SELECTED SITES.
MODIFY STE? 9 AS APPROPRIATE BASED ON A COMPAR OF RESULTS/AND CONFIDENCE IN VARIOUS DATA SETS CONTROLLING DIFFERENT SPECTRA.
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ENCLOSURE 5 REQUEST FOR INFORMATION DATA TO SUPPLEMENT NFC SITE SPECIFIC SPECTRA PROJECT 1.
Strong Motion Data Sets Real earthquake records for appropriate magnitude and site conditions, restricted to N30 km of the recording site.
(For use ir. site s ecific spectra method described in 9c of Enclosure 3 2.
Eastern United States Attenuation Attenuation relationships or sit ? intensity data bases for regression an& lyses, 3.
Ossippee N H. and Cornwall-Massena Attenuatica Relations The raw data used to generate the attenuation relations in Enclosure 4 or a reversal of the dependent and independent axes.
4 Racommendation fc;' SSSP Review Panel 4
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