ML19241A844

Submits Results of Analysis Contained in Vl Conrad Ltr Re Whether Previously Estimated Const Costs & Scheduled Commercial Operation Dates Could Be Maintained

ML19241A844
Person / Time
Site:	Black Fox
Issue date:	05/11/1979
From:	Murphy P ISHAM, LINCOLN & BEALE
To:	Johnson W, Saltzman R, Sharfman J NRC ATOMIC SAFETY & LICENSING APPEAL PANEL (ASLAP)
References
NUDOCS 7907090453
Download: ML19241A844 (12)

Text

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e NRC PUBLIC DOCU3ENT BOOM ISHAM, LINCOLN & BEALE COUNSELCRS AT LAW ONE FIRST NATION AL PLAZ A FORTY-S ECOND FLOOR CHICAGO, lLLINCIS 60 6 03 TELEPHONE 312-558-7500 TE L E x : 2-5288 WA S HINGTON OFFICE 1050 17? STR EET, N W.

SEVENTH FLOC R May 11, 1979 - As m ~C 70~. o C. 2 OO 3e 202-833 9730 Richard S. Salzman, Esq. Dr. W. Reed Johnson Atomic Safety and Licensing Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Board Appeal Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Washington, D.C. 20555 Jerome E. Sharfman, Esq.

Atomic Safeti and Licensing .t4d M j Appeal Board Panel ir N' V4 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory d' N+'

Commission ,[,/

8? f 3 Washington, D.C. 20555 p,! ff ,

pf {

t ~~' s a, u, Re: Black Fox Nuclear Generating Station ~

Units 1 and 2 p%

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Docket Nos. STN 50-556 and STN 50-557 v.

P v f/ uf [@J ,

Gentlemen: I#

On March 14, 1979[ this office informed you that Public Service Company of Oklahoma ("PSO") , one of the Appli-cants for a construction permit for the Black Fox Station, had been conducting an analysis to determine whether the pr2viously estimated construction costs and scheduled com-mercial operation dates for the facility could be maintained.

All three Applicants have also revised their forecast for peak demand for electric power, The results of that analysis are contained in the enclosed letter from Mr. Vaughn L.

Conrad of PSO and the attachments thereto.

One of the issues currently on appeal before you is the need for the Black Fox Station. Exhibit i VIa, VIb and vie show the current peak load forecast for each of the Applicants. These forecasts show lower peak loads than those previously estimated by Applicants and submitted in the Black Fox Station Environmental Report ("ER") . The relevant portions of the ER are reproduced in Exhibits FJM-3, FJM-4 and FJM-5, attached to the testimony of Mr. Frank J.

Meyer following transcript page 2391. The current forecasts are, however, within the range of the estimates p viously considered by the Licensing Board in reaching its initial decision of July 24, 1978 (see 8 NRC 102, 155-158). The NRC

,] l 311 008 7907090 ' rs

>a ':

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Ctaff load growth estimates are shown in the testimony of Dr. Alan M. Wolsky following transcript page 2799, and those of the Intervenors are shown in the testimony of Dr. Robert Halvorsen following transcript page 2443. The ~- ' nation of reduced load growth and the slippage in the t- 3rcial operation dates for Black Fox Station result in reserve margins on Applicants' systems which do not differ materi-ally from those previously estimated by Applicants.

S"- erelyf j

k /bf aul M. Murphy One of the Attorneys for Applicants PMM/ sag Enclosures cc w/encs.: Black Fox Service List 5)) 009

}20 POLIC DOCUaEKT EGa PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF OKLAHOMA A CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST COMPANY p(, b VN P O BOX 201/ TULSA. OKLAHOMA 74 lO2 / (918) 583-3611 Public Service Company of Oklahorna April 23, 1979 Black Fox Station Revised Schedule and Cost Estimate

. f s Paul M. Murphy, Esq.

Isham, Lincoln and Beale - s N

One First National Plaza $ Y <

Chicago, ILL 60603 Y..N

Dear Paul,

QIg g '

In our letter to the licensing boards dated March 17, 1979, we advised them that a reanalysis of the cost estimate and construction schedule for the Black Fox Station was in progress and would be completed by April 30, 1979.

The study has been completed, and I am now directing that you provide the following information to the boards and parties.

The revised construction schedule is detailed in the attached Exhibit I.

Commercial operation of BFS Unit 1 is now slated for July 1,1985; commercial operation of Unit 2 on July 1, 1988. These construction schedules take into consideration all previously experienced licensing delays and are based on present day experiences at similar projects. Industry precedent has been to set up a timetable allowing only two years between units, but actual construr tion times are more closely following our revised schedule. We have carefully op taized the hoject's construction sequence based on an expected Construction Fernit receipt by July 1, 1979.

The new cost estimate for the Proj ect is detailed in Exhibit II. This information is similar to that provided in the Application for Licenses, pages III.K-2 and III.K-3, but does not conform to thefr FERC (FPC) derived format. In tbc interest o f p romp t notification, I have also included in this exhibit a comparison between the June, 1977 estimate of 1.75 billion and the revised estimate of 2.39 billion, rather than wait for the actual revision of these pages which will involve a con-siderable effort. Exhibit II has provided the sa=e net information and eliminated the need to utill e the above cited pages for comparative purposes.

Exhibit III corresponds directly to Application, page III.A-3, which describes the PSO source of funds for system-wide construction expenditures during the BFS con-struction period. Likewise, Exhibits IV and V provide project cash f1cw information for Associated Electric Cooperativa, Inc. and Western Farmers' Electric Cooperative.

These correspond to pages III.L-2 and III.M-2, respectively, of the Application.

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Isham, Lincoln and Beale Page 2.

Our Treasurer, Mr. Glancy, informs me that the impacts of the increased cost for the Project have been ameliorated from a financing point of view by the lengthened schedule. A comparison of Exhibit III with Application, page III.A-2, will show a decrease in annual funds required for tne Project for some years, although the total is greater.

Finally, as a matter of inf ormation, I have attached as Exhibit VI current projected demand and energy requirements for each of the joint owners through 1990 with corresporm ng system capacity. The compound growth rate for PSO projections (VIa) is 5.5%; ACI (VIb), 7.7%; WFEC (VIc), 9.6".

Very truly your N

V. L. Conrad Manager, Licensing and Compliance VLC:dc Attachments cc: M. E. Fate, Jr.

T. N. Ewing J. Gallo

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~ EXHIBIT I t,

C 3 LACK FOX STATION Schedule EVENT DATE MONTHS FROM CP Construct. ion Permit July 1, 1979 0 Unit 1 Fuel Load January 1, 1985 66 Unit 1 Full Power July 1, 1985 72 (Cce:mercial)

Unit 2 Fuel Load January 1, 1988 102 Unit 2 Full Power July 1, 1988 108 (Cor:mercial) m 311 012

EXHIBIT II I

E COMPARISON OF BFS ESTIMATES (Dollars X 1000)

June 77 ' Acril 79 Land, Satarials and Eq:1pment 632,705 613,572 Construction 241,291 385,297 Subtotal 873,996 998,869 Engr & Constr Management 184,209 249,378 Sales Tax (incl) 3,839 Undistributed (inc1) 29,694 Escalation 279,374 329,275 Contingency 96,229 227,900 Interest 316,192 549,770 Total 1,750,000 2,338,725 Cost /KW 761 1,038 CHANGE COMPARISON (Dollars X 1000)

Chance (% Total) Balance Total Increase 638,000 Interest (Delay & Sched Ext) 233,578 (37%) 404,422 Escalarion (Delay) 49,900 ( 8%) 354,522 Equipment & Construction 124,873 (20%) 229,649 Unknown 29,694 ( 5%) 199,955 Contingency 131,671 (21%) 68,284 Engr /Constr Management 65,169 (10%) 3,115 3\\ 0\3

) ) )1) ) _

8 0 0 0 1 0 2 7 0 1 0 5 5 5 1 7 8i 3 2 5 2 8 0 4 2 3 8 2 0 7 2 1 3 2J 1 5 6 9 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 3 1 ( ( ( ( ( (

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EXHIBIT IV ASSOCIATED QUESTION 4C I

Yearly Total _"f Associated-1973 - 197F 80.2 17.4 1979 106.5 23.1 1980 159.1 34.5 1981 285.3 61.9 1982 322.2 69.9 1983 343.4 74.5 1984 302.8 65.7 1985 170.9 37.1 1986 58.2 12.6 1987 6.8 1.5 1988 3.5 .76 a) Does not include interest during construction.

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EXHIBIT V WESTERN QUESTION 4C Yearly Total ") Western 1973 - 1978 80.2 14.0 1979 106.5 18.5 1980 159.1 . 27.7 1981 285.3 49.6 -

1982 322.2 36.1 1983 343.4 59.8 1 34 302.8 52.7 1985 170.9 29.7 1986 58.2 10.1 1987 6.8 1.2 1988 3.5 .6 a) Does not include interest during construction.

EXHIBIT VIa HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED PSO NET SYSTEM PEAK LOAD DEM.UDS AND ENERGY REQUIRE >ENTS System De=and Net System Year Capacity W WH _

Historical 1965 975 1000 4,240,417 1966 975 1138 4,623,664 1967 1293 1166 4,838,809 1968 1268 1289 5,329,509 1969 1268 1453 5,926,225 1970 1718 1550 6,481,587 197' 1738 1610 6,854,698 1972 1726 1828 7,803,012 1973 1696 1643 6,198,314 1974 2252 2070 8,645,907 1975 2422 2071 9,171,251 1976 2880 2193 9,577,867 1977 2912 2405 10,627,527 1978 2877 2527 11,219,850 Projected 1979 3304 2660 11,777,700 1980 3754 2808 12,335,200 1981 3754 2967 13,029,700 1982 3754 3110 13,687,900 1983 3754 3292 14,417,300 1984 3754 3482 15,279,400 1985 4452 3680 16,185,500 1986 4452 3887 17,140,300 1957 4498 4101 18,190,400 1988 5045 4326 19,325,000 1989 5095 4564 20,290,l00 1990 5257 4815 21,511,500 311 017

EXHIBIT VIb HISTORICU MID PROJECTED ASSOCIATED ELECTRIC NET SYSTE!!

t EA) LOAD DEMANDS AND ENERGY REQUIRDfENTS System Demand Net System Year Capacity MW g.H Historical 1965 143 352 1,860,818 1966 323 427 2,060,033 1967 323 473 2,256,949 1968 323 501 2,617,993 1969 626 585 2,928,110 1970 626 650 3,272,486 1971 626 024 4,248,130 1972 1226 972 5,294,207 1973 1226 1035 5,612,544 1974 1226 1163 5,896,688 1975 1226 1222 6,518,713 1976 1226 1507 7,362,730 1977 1828 1598 8,467,243 19,8 1828 1679 8,466,324 Proj ected 1979 1828 1960 9,745,000 1980 1828 2104 10,439,000 1981 1828 2259 11,197,000 1982 2458 2409 11,842,000 1983 2458 2571 12,533,000 1984 2458 2745 13,273,000 1985 2708 2932 14,077,000 1986 2708 3133 14,917,000 1987 2958 3350 15,861,000 1988 2958 3584 16,876,000 1989 2958 3835 17,965,000 1990 2958 4105 19,136,000 3)) 018

EXHIBIT VIc HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED WESTERN NET SYSTEM PEAK LOAD DEMANDS AND ENERGY REQUIRDIENTS System Demand Year Capacity Mh' Net System ggg Historical 1965 137 125 620,675 ,

1966 137 140 709,287 1967 137 150 739,137 1968 280 165 860,204 1969 280 196 955,507 1970 280 209 1,054,027 1971 280 237 1,162,482 1972 280 255 1,331,914 1973 280 286 1,431,717 1974 280 488 2,308,820 1975 424 496 2,527,941 1976 424 566 2,753,379 1977 724 595 3,021,428 1978 724 638 3,276,830 Projected 1979 72* 781 3,628,000 1980 724 846 3,949,000 1981 724 921 4,301,000 1982 1100 999 -

4,653,000 1983 1100 1085 5,034,000 1984 1100 1176 5,443,000 1985 1300 1276 5,886,000 1986 1300 1385 6,369,000 1987 1500 1502 6,887,000 1983 1500 1628 7,447,000 1989 1500 1768 8,057,000 1990 1500 1916 3,713,000

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