ML19221A686
| ML19221A686 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crane  |
| Issue date: | 04/03/1979 |
| From: | Gossick L NRC OFFICE OF THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR OPERATIONS (EDO) |
| To: | NRC COMMISSION (OCM) |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 7905300089 | |
| Download: ML19221A686 (12) | |
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3 NUCLEAR REGULATORY C0f0ilSSI0tt OFFICE OF INSPECTION AND EfiFORCEMENT WASHIt'GTON, D.C.
INCIDENT MESSAGE FORM
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166 349 7005300087 f
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Conmissioners From:
L. Gossick
SUBJECT:
RESULTS OF PRELIMINARY RADIOLOGICAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THREE MILE ISLAftD ACCIDEtlT The attached is forwarded for your information. We understand that HEW may use these figures in testimony at Senator Kennedy's April 4,1579 hearings.
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166 350
LIST OF INTERAGENCY PAFTICIPANTS IN OFFSITE POPULATION DOSE ASSESSMENT FROM THREE MILE ISLAND ACCIDENT John Buchanan, NRC Frank Congel, NRC Harold Peterson, NRC Lewis Battist, NRC Mark Nelson, CDC/ HEW Marvin Rosenstein, FDA/ HEW Christopher Nelson, EPA
4/3/79 0FFSITE POPULATION DOSE AND RISK ASSESSMENT FROM ACCIDENT AT THEE MILE ISLAND NUCLEAR STATION An interagency team of specialists from HEW, EPA and NRC have estimated the collective "adiation doses received by the offsite population residing within 50 miles of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station resulting frcm the accident of March 28, 1979.
The estimates are for' the period through the afternoon of April 2,1979.
The estimates are based upon ground level radiation measurements from dosimeters located within 15 miles of the site.
The data were obtained from measurements maJe by Metropolitan Edison Power Company from the start of the incident through March 31, 1979, and from measurements made by NRC from noon of March 31 through the afternoc, of April 2,1979.
The measurement program is continuina.
The present estimates are preliminary and will be updaced as additional data are obtained.
The highest radiation measurement occurred at a location 0.5 mile northeast of the plant.
An individual located at this site for the duration of the incident would nave received a cumulative dose of 80 mrem.
The collective dose to the total population within a 50-mile radius of the plaat was estimated to be approximately 1800 person-rem, based on a projected 1980 population estimate of 2 million people.
No reduction in this dose esti-mate has been made for the portion of the pcpulation that has relocated from areas close to the nuclear plant to areas outside the 50-mile radius.
The collective dose does not include ingestion of I-131 that may have been present in milk.
This source of exposure is expected to be very small compared to the external exposure.
166 352
2 The projected number of fatal cancers over the total lifetime of the population located in the 50-mile area is less than cne (0.36).
The nunber of total lifetime health effects, including all cases of cancer and genetic effects, would be approximately one.
The normal cancer mortality ra*.e, for the same population, based on 1974 figures would be 3,692 per year.
The annual cancer death rate attributable to natural background radiation, for the same population, would be approximately 54 per year.
This most recent estimate of population doses and risks will be submitted to all tnree Agency heads.
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ESTIMATED HEALTH RISK FROM LOW-LEVEL RADIATION EXPOSURE Risk per Man-rem Nominal Range 4
Maximum xF
-4 Leukemia 0.31 x 10 (0.26 - 0.37)
-4 Other Fatal Cancers 1.60 x 10 (0.61 - 4.2)
-4 Lung Cancer 0.40 x 10 (0.15 - 1.1)
-4 GI Tract Cancer 0.32 x 10 (0.12 - 0.84)
-4 Bone Cancer 0.06 x 10 (0.02 - 0.17)
Total 2.69 x 10-Thyroid Cancer (cases) 1.40 x 10 (1.0 - 2.0)
-4 (fatali ties) 0.14 x 10
-4 Total Cancers 4.09 x 10
-4 Genetic Disease 1.80 x 10 (0.36 - 9)
(equilibrium)
-4 Total Potential Health Effects 3.9 x 10
-4 Fatal Cancers 2.0 x 10 Estimates derived from 1972 Report of the National Academy of Sciences Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of A+'mic Radiation w.
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COLLECTIVE DOSE (man-rem)
The Collective Dose, S, (in units of man-rem) is the sum of all of k
individual doses (H ) received by all members of a specified population 4
group.
k S
I H Hj=H2+H3... + Hk k
- 1=)
=
j The collective dose is a measure of the potential health impact from a given source of radiation exposure.
A 166 355
PREOPERATI0flAL* DOSE ESTIMATES FROM LOSS-OF-C00LAflT ACCIDENT AT THREE MILE ISLAflD NUCLEAR STATION DOSE 10 AN COLLECTIVE CLASS DESCRIPTION INDIVIDUAL DOSE (WITHIli 50 MILE _S_)
% of 10 CFR Part 20 mrem / year (man-rem)
Limits (500 mrem / year) 8.0 Accident Initiation Events Considered in Design Basis 8.1 Loss-of-Coolant Accidents Small Break 16 80 40 Large Break 120 600 1,000
- 1. From Table 20 p. VI-6 of the Final Environmental Statement related to operation of Three Mile Island Nuclear Station Units 1 and 2, December 1972.
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POPULATED AREAS WITHIN 10 MILES OF THREE MILE ISLAND SITE Distance 1970 Census (miles)
Direction Municipality Population 1
W Goldsboro 576 2
N Royalton 1,040 21/2 N
Middleton 9,080 4
NW Highspire 2,947 4
S Yorkhaven 671 6
E Elizabethtown 8,072 6 1/2 S
Manchester 2,391 7
NW Steelton-8,555 9
NW New Cumberland 9,803 9
NW Harrisburg 68,061 3
N Hummels town 4,723 0
NNE Hershey-7,407 166 357
W POTEllTIAL llEALTil C0tiSEQUEilCES OF EVACUATI0ft OF 20-MILE EtlCLOSED POPULATI0tl Basis:
10 deaths /1,142',336 people evacuated from EPA Report " Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation" EPA - 520/6-74-002, June 1974 20 mile enclosed population (1970) 621,300
(
0
-6 5.4 s 5 deaths
)_,
3K= 8.754 x 10 621,300
=
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ESTIMATED TOTAL HEALTH IMPACT FROM INCIDENT 1,800 man-rem to population within 50 miles (lifetime risk)
Cases Leukemia cases 0.0558 Other fatal cancers 0.288 Lung cancer 0.072 GI tract cancer 0.058 Bone cancer 0.011 Thyroid cancer (cases) 0.252 (deaths) 0.025
-Genetic ill health to all future generations 0.324 Total Health Effects 1.05 Total Fatal Cancers 0.34 166 359
PROJECTE0 POTENTIAL llEALTH CONSEQUENCES FRCH TilREE MILE ISLAND INCIDENT Approximate fiumber of Cancer Fatalities to Cause 50-Mile Population U.S.
1974 Cancer Death Rate (170.5/100,000) 3,692 per year Natural Background Radiation *'**
- 54 per year Preliminary Estimate of Collective Dose from Incident **
0.36 total
- Would be expected to be included in natural rate.
-4
- Using estimates derived from the 1972 BEIR Report of 2 x 10 fatal cancers per man rem.
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