Text

Summary of 960731 Meeting W/Vepco in Richmond,Va Re WOG Methodology for Implementation of risk-informed Inservice Inspection Program for Surry Power Station Unit 1.List of Attendees Encl
	ML18151A657
Person / Time
Site:	Surry
Issue date:	08/02/1996
From:	Ali S; NRC (Affiliation Not Assigned)
To:	Bagchi G; NRC (Affiliation Not Assigned)
References
	NUDOCS 9608070186
	Download: ML18151A657 (53)
	v • d • e

{{#Wiki_filter:... { e UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20555-0001 August 2, 1996 MEMORANDUM TO: Gautam Bagchi, Chief Civil Engineering and Geosciences Branch Division of Engineering FROM: JA1yed Ali, Structural Engineer

SUBJECT:

Civil Engineering and Geosciences Branch Division of Engineering SURRY POWER STATION UNIT 1 PIPING STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY EVALUATION MEETING ON JULY 31, 1996 On July 31, 1996, Virginia Electric and Power Company (VEPCO) conducted a Structural Risk and. Reliability Analysis (SRRA) subpanel meeting at its headquarter in Richmond, Virginia. This subpanel meeting is part of the Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) methodology for the implementation of the risk-informed inservice inspection (RI-ISi) program for Surry Power Station Unit I. NRC staff members Gautam Bagchi, Syed Ali, and Jack Guttmann, and PNNL contractor Fred Simonen observed the licensee's implementation of the SRRA subpanel meeting. The SRRA subpanel members prepared SRRA computer code input for several example piping segments and ran the program to obtain piping segment leakage and failure probabilities. A list of attendees is included as Attachment 1, and a list of subpanel members is included as Attachment 2. The presentation material used by VEPCO is included as Attachment 3. As a result of the subpanel meeting and discussion with the staff members, following issues were identified for further consideration and resolution by VEPCO and WOG. I. The term operating cycles in the definition' of fatigue transients per operating cycles needs to be clarified.

2.

WOG/VEPCO needs to clarify how laminations in pipe walls are addressed by the SRRA code.

3.

Treatment of weld overlays and repairs in the SRRA code needs to be addressed.

4.

WOG/VEPCO needs to provide the basis for dividing the seismic stress by a factor of two in calculating the design limiting stress ratio.

5.

Documentation procedure to include.calculations and sketches needs to be clarified.

6.

Methodology to calculate seismic stresses for non-code piping needs to be addressed. 9608070186 960802 PDR ADOCK 05000280 G PDR l

7.

Treatment of known flaws needs to be addressed.

8.

Resolve the issue that SRRA calculates a very small probability of failure or leakage without ISi when known corrosion rates would predict complete failure of pipe wall after only ten years - 0.3 inch thick pipe with an erosion rate of 30 mils per year would fail in ten years. It was concluded that the meeting was useful and that further discussion of fracture mechanics will take place in Portland, OR on August 6 and 7, and in future meetings. Attachments:

1. Attendees

2. Subpanel members

3. Presentation material*

DISTRIBUTION: Central Files (T-5 C3) NRC Meeting Participants MMayfield Glainas JStrosnider DOCUMENT NAME: G:\\ALI\\SUMJUL31 PDR (LL-6) BSheron DJeng SDinsmore EButcher ECGB r/f NRR Mailroom DJackson GMillman LShao RYoungblood (Scientec)

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e ATTACHMENT ~ SRRA Subpanel Members Les Spain - Materials Engineering & Failure Analysis Laboratory Nitin Shah - Engineering Mechanics Pat Naughton - ISI/NDE Engineering Alex McNeil! - ISI/NDE Engineering

ATTAC J.JMEJJ T 3 Piping Risk Based Inspection Meeting with Virginia Power Piping Structural . f3eliability. Evaluation

SRRA Background and Introduction
- Guidelines and

. Input Instructions Bruce A. Bishop . Reactor Equipment and Materials Engineering Westinghouse Energy Syste~s Pittsburgh, PA 15230-0355 (412) 374-4593 April 3 and 4, 1996

/, . -~ Evolution of Simplified SRRA Models

Westinghouse Analytical Needs

- Write New Probabilistic Codes - Optimize Input to PRAISE Code - Demonstrate SRRA Applications

Support ASME RBI Guidelines

- Probability fo_r Ranking Pro,.cess - B*enefits of ln-spection Strategies

Use Prior Experience and Work

-,Expert Elicitation - Failure Data Trends - Failure Rate Correlations - EPRI Rate Factors - PRAISE Code Runs - PRAISE Result Trends - Chapman's Neural Network

C;JPfM ~,MENU.EXE PIPEMENU.EXE Simplified Pipe Input Menu SPFMPROF.EXE Monte-Carlo Failure Probability ys Time .~ SPFMSRRA.E~E Jw-EstimateSjf Probability Changes' with Time SRRAPLOT.EXE Interaction of Piping SPFM and Westinghouse Programs

READ IN _t-....._ INITIALIZE INPUT DATA 1-/ VARIABLES '6 YES NO PRINT OUT NEXT CALCULATED <1 RANDOM <1 RESULTS TRIAL? t------1"- STEADY-STATE<}-------. v . CHANGES TRANSIENT

CHANGES I

\\] YES CHECK IF NEXT FAILURE -----{> TIME OCCURS? NO STEP? YES \\l FAILURE PROBABILITY WITH TIME r<} NO EFFECTS OF

1 IN-SERVICE INSPECTION FLOW CHART FOR MONTE-CARLO ANALYSIS PROGRAM e

i* ..i Input Instructions-for Piping Structural Reliability Estimates

1.

Prepare input sheet (shown on next page) for each system piping segment for weld location with highest failure probability. If location is not certain, fill out a range of values or use separate sheets for different locations and note such in the "comments."

2.

Normally, the higher the value of the non-ISi input parameters, the higher the failure probability, all other things being equal. Since higher temperature gives a lower flow stress, stresses would be lower for the same input fraction and the leak (but not break) probability could be lower. ~

3.

The stress of input item 14, is the maximum primary stress during the design limiting event, such as earthquake seismic loading or transient pressure loads.

4.

For the optional in-service inspection input, the failure probability is higher for high intervals and low accuracy.

5.

The number in parenthesis is the value of the corresponding parameter in Table 1 that is used for qualitative input (high, medium or low). If more precise input is know, it can be specified in the last column on the input sheet. Input to the computer is simplified if the standard range of values specified in Table 1 are used.

6.

The probabilities at the bottom of the page will be calculated using the specified input by the SRRA software supplied for the WOG pilot study.

7.

For additional questions, call Bruce Bishop of Westinghouse at (412) 374-4593.

~~~ ~~ ~ ~ ek.:...:_ Piping Structural Reliability Estimates for Plant: -------- Page_of_ System : _______ _ Segment:--------------------------- Total Number of Structural Elements:. ---- Number of Elements in ASME Section XI ISi Plan: ---- No. Input Parameter Description Check Input Choice (for Table l Value) Set Value* l Type of Piping Material 304 ss 316 ss Carbon Steel 2 Temperature at Pipe Weld Low (150) Medium: (350) High (550) 3 Nominal Pipe Size Small (2) Medium (5) Large (16) 4 Pipe Wall Thickness Thin (.06) Normal (.14) Thick (.22) 5 Normal Operating Pressure

Low (0.5)

Medium (l.3) High (2.1) 6 Residual Stress Level None (0.0) Moderate (0.1) Maximum (0.2) t 7 Initial Flaw Size Small (.05) Medium (.11) Large (.17) 8 Steady-State Stress Level

Low (.05)

Medium (.11) High (.17) 9 Stress Corrosion Potential None (0.0) Moderate (0.5) Maximum (1.0) 10 Material Wastage Potential None (0.0) Moderate (0.5) Maximum ( 1.0) 11 High Cycle Fatigue Loads None (0.0) Moderate (.08) Maximum (.16) l~> 12 Fatigue Transient Loads Low (.10) Medium (.22) High (.34) 13 Fatigue Transient Frequency Low (5) Medium {13) High (21) 14 Design-Limiting Stress (Break Only) Low (.10) Medium (.26) High (.42) 15 Optional Crack Inspection Interval Low (6) Medium (10) High (14) 16 Optional Crack Inspection Accuracy High (.16) Medium (.24) Low (.32)

For optional numeric input, use a value (and associated units) from the standard* range given in Table I.

Small Leak Probability, No ISi: --------- Full Break Probability, No ISi: --------- Comments: Optional Leak Probability With ISi: ________ _ Optional Break Probability With ISi: ________ _ e

I No. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 IO 11 12 13 14 15 16 Table 1 Range of Standard Numeric Input Values for Simplified Piping Structural Reliability Models I Parameter Description I Range I Step Size Degrees (F) at Pipe Weld 50 - 650 50 Pipe Outside Diameter (inch) 1 - 20 0.5, D < 5 2.0, D > 6 - Thickness to Diameter Ratio 0.02 - 0.26 0.02 Operating Pressure (ksi) 0.1 - 2.5 0.20 Ratio* of Residual to Flow Stress 0.0 - 0.2 0.05 Flaw Depth Fraction of Wall 0.02 - 0.20 0.03 Ratio* Steady-State to Flow Stress 0.02 - 0.20 0.03 ' Stress Corrosion Cracking Level 0.0 - 1.0 0.10 Erosion-Corrosion-Wear Level 0.0 - 1.0 0.10 Ratio* Stress Amplitude to Flow Stress 0.0 - 0.16 0.04 for High Cycle Fatigue Loading Ratio* Stress Amplitude to Flow Stress 0.04 - 0.40 0.03 for Fatigue Transient Loading I Fatigue Transients per Operating Cycle 1 - 25 4 Ratio* Maximum Stress to Flow Stress 0.02 - 0.50 0.04 for the Design-Limiting Condition Operating Cycles Between Inspections 4 - 16 2 Wall Fraction for 50% Crack Detection 0.12 - 0.36 0.04

The stress ratio is the value of the applied stress to the weld flow stress for the specified temperature and the type of material. See Table 2 for weld flow stresses.

I

Table 2 Value of Weld Flow Stress (ksi) Used for Simplified Piping Structural Reliability Models Temperature ("F) 304 & 316 ss Carbon Steel 5() 74.32 80.92 100 72.23 78.83 150 70.14 'l6.74 200 68.05 74.65 250 65.96 72.56 300 63.87

70.47 350 61.78 68.38 400 59.69 66.29 C

450 57.60 64.20 500 55.51 62.11 550 53.42 60.02 600 51.33 57.93 650 49.24 55.84

e Guidelines to Select Limiting Locations and Estimate Failure Probabilities - 1

GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

- The purpose of the piping inspection is to detect a small flaw before it becomes big enough to be a potential problem during a postulated design-limiting event, such as a safe-shutdown earthquake or loss of coolant accident. - Locations to be considered are not only those where a small flaw might occur (mechanistic), but also where you would want to know about it (break potential) if one did occur for an unexpected reason. - Also consider the effects of adjacent components not working properly on both the mechanistic approach (eg. snubber lockup or a leaking valve) and the break potential (eg. snubber not engaging). - Since the initial flaw size is a fraction (11 %) of the wall thickness, which is a specified fraction of the pipe size, larger and thicker pipes should have higher failure probabilities, all other factors being equal.

MECHANISTIC APPROACH

- For poor fabrication and pre-service inspection quality (initial flaws), look for field vs. shop welds and configurations that would be hard to maintain fabrication tolerances or to inspect. Lack of stress relief or cold springing could also lead \\o residual stresses for stress-corrosion cracking. For stress-corrosion cracking, high stresses (residual, steady-state, pressure), sensitized material (304 SS) and high coolant conductivity are all required. For material wastage, look for locations of relative support motion (wear), high pressure drop or turning losses (erosion-corrosion) or areas of stagnant coolant (microbiological attack) if the piping materials, especially at crevices, are susceptible to ariy of these wastage mechanisms. - For high cycle fatigue, look for configurations susceptible to flow induced vibration and flow striping or for vibratory resonance with rotating equipment (pump) frequencies. - For low cycle fatigue, look for areas with high loads due to thermal expansion ( equipment nozzles and other anchor points, near snubbers, dissimilar metal joints) for heat-up and cool-down thermal cycling.

Guidelines to Select Limiting Locations and Estimate Failure Probabilities - 2

BREAK POTENTIAL APPROACH

- Identify source of potentially limiting loads (eg. seismic, water hammer) and then the location of maximum loading if the source was to occur. - If some new unexpected loading were to occur, what is the weakest point in the segment that would be inspected/checked for failure? ...~- ~. - Look at locations identified in the mechanistic approach to see if potential source loadings would still be high enough to be of concern.

REQUIRED INPUT DETAIL

- In general, the level of input detail should be commensurate with the importance associted with how the probability estimates are used. - Qualitative values (high, medium or low) should be sufficient for ranking piping systems or segments. - Standard numerical input values should still be sufficient for ranking of potential inspection locations in risk-signifiant piping segments - Full menu input of median values or uncertainties should only be required for evaluatinq different inspection strategies or other mitigators for the most risk-significant locations. - Calculated stresses from design analyses (per ASME Code) are assumed to be upper bound values with the means (expected values) one-half those values.

Guidelines on Expertise Required to Select Limiting Locations and Estimate Failure Probabilities

THERMAL-FLUIDS SYSTEM ANALYSIS

- Potential sources and locations of thermal striping or stratification - Areas of high flow velocity or turning losses for vibration/wastage - Stagnant flow zones and coolant c.Hemistry for wast~gejcorrosion ~. - Location of high transient pressures or loads (eg. water hammer) - Steady-state and transient temperatures and gradients

DESIGN STRESS ANALYSIS

- Location of discontinuities, like snubbers, anchors, support lugs and dissimilar metal joints for high_ operating or cyclic stresses_ - Location of any field welds or cold springing (residual stress) - Areas of high thermal stress (low cycle fatigue) - Locations with high transient loads (seismic) - Sensitized material locations for potential stress corrosion

IN-SERVICE INSPECTION

- Locatiori.s with poor pre-service inspection (undetected flaws) - Inspection locations now required by ASME Code, Section XI - History of any indications in this or similar configurations - Results of applicable Section XI flaw evaluations - Accuracy of potential in-service inspection

OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE

- Any problems observed during fabrication, installation or hot functional testing of system - History of any leaks or repairs in this or similar configurations - Any observed failures or areas of high vibration - History of snubber retesting or other support problems. - Any other maintenance problems of concern (valves, bellows, etc.}

Sample Input Screen for the SPFMMENU Program Westinghouse Program SPFMMENU Type of SPFMMENU ~rogram Option Type of Piping Steel Material Pipe Weld Failure Mode Crack Inspection Interval Crack Inspection Accuracy Temperature at Pipe Weld Nominal Pipe Size Pipe Wall Thickness Normal Operating Pressure Residual Stress Level Initial Plaw Size Steady-State Stress Level Stress Corrosion Potential Material Wastage Potential High Cycle Fatigue Loads Fatigue Transient Loads Fatigue Transient Frequency Design-Limit Stress Level Set Input Carbon Small Leak Medium High Medium Medium Normal Medium Moderate Medium Medium Moderate Moderate Moderate Medium Low Medium Messages and Input Use Up, Down, Right or Left Arrows, End, Esc, Enter or Insert Keys to Select Options\\Values \\ 1

I ESBU-NTD e

e

Sample Output Screen for the SPFMMENU Program. Westinghouse Program SPFMMENU Type of SPFMMENU Program Option Type of Piping st,,,~;i Material Pipe Weld Failure Mode Operating Cycles Between Xnspectiona Wall Fraction for 50% Detection Degrees (F) at Pipe Weld Pipe Out*ide Diameter (inch) Thickness to Diameter Ratio Operating Pressure (ksi) Ratio of Residual to Flow Stress Flaw Depth Fraction of Wall' Ratio Steady-State to Flow Stress Stress Corrosion Cracking Level Erosion-Corrosion-Wear Level Ratio RCFL Amplitude to Flow Stress Ratio FTL Amplitude to Flow Stress Transients per Operating Cycle Ratio Design-Limit to Flow Stress Value of Weld Metal Flow Stress in Kai Run PROF Carbon Small Leak 10.0 0.160 350.0 5.0 0.140 1.30 0.10 0.110 0.11 0.50 0.50 o.oeo 0.220 5.0 0.260 68.35 Messages and Xnput Actual input values for current run are shown above. Do you wish to quit after run (Y/N): 'I-ESBU-NTD

VARIABLES FOR PIPING STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY MODEL 3rd 1 PIPE-Dl'.A PIPE Otrl'SIDE DIAMJ!:'l'ER (INCH) 4th 2 WALL/Dl'.A PIPE WALL TO DIAME'l'ER RATIO 6th 3 SRESIDUAL WELD I.D. RESIDUAL STRESS (KSI) 7th 4 IN'1'%DBP'l'B IRITZAL CRACK DBP'l'B ( % 01' WALL) 15th 15th 16th 5th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 1st 2nd 14th 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 LID-RATIO INITZAL CRACK LZNG'l'B TO DBP'l'B RATIO PROB/VOL FIRST-ISI .FREQ-ISI PROBABILI'l'Y Ol" CRACK PER CUBIC INCH CYCLE NOMBBR-FOR l'IRST IMSPBCTION (ISI) !'REQUBNCY POR St1BSBQOENT ISI'S (CYCLES) EPST-PND MINIMCM ISI PROB. 01' NONDZ'l'ECTION (PND) ASTU.-PND DBP'l'B !'OR 50% PROB. 01' NONDB'l'ECTION JWtJtJ-PND HOURS/CY PRBSSURB S'l'RBSS.;.ss SCC-COBl'l" PND EXPONENTIAL SLOPB WI'l'B CRACK DEPTH Bl'l'ECTIVB BOORS PBR OPERATING CYCLE NORMAL OPERATING PRJ!:SStJRB (lCSI) STZADY-STA'l'B OPERATING S'l'RBSS (KSI) S'l'RBSS-CORROSION COBl'FICIEN'l' (IN/BR) SCC-BXPNT sec EXPONENT FOR STRESS INTBNSI'l'Y SCC-TIMBI ECW-RA'l'E TIME TO INITIA'l'E STRESS-CORROSION (HRS) EROSION-CORROSION WBAJl RA'l'E (IN/BR) NOP'l'RS/BR NtJMBBR 01' PAST 'l'RANSIEN'l'S PER HOUR S'l'RESS-P'l' FAST TUHSIZN'l' STRESS AMPLITUDE (KSI) NOS'l'RS/CY NtJMBD OP SLOW TRANSIENTS PD CYCLE S'l'RBSS-ST SLOW TRANSIBN'l' S'l'R!:SS AMPLITUDE (KSI) PCG-COEPI' PA'l'IGtJE CRACKING COEPPICIEN'l' (IN/CYCLE) l"CG-ZXPNT FATIGUE CRACK GROW'l'H EXPONEN'l' l'CG-'l'BOLD PCG 'l'BRBSBOLD IN KSI-SQR'l'(INCB) LIMI'l'-DSL LIMIT CRACK DBP'l'B POR SMALL LEAK (INCH) LIMIT-PBS LIMITING STRESS POR PIPE BJU:Alt (KS~) STRESS-DL DESIGN LIMITING.AXIAL STRESS (KSI) FRBQ-DL'l'R P'RBQtJJ:CY 01' DL TUNSI:DM.' PER YB.AR DISTRIBUTION Normal Normal Log-Normal Log-Normal Log.;.Normal Con11tant Constant Constant Constant Conatant Conatant Log-Normal Nozmal LO!jJ-Nozmal Log-Normal Constant Constant Log-Normal Conatant Log-Nozmal Conatant Log-Normal Log-Normal Constant Conatant Nozmal Normal Log-Normal Con11tant

e DEFAULT MEDJ:AN VALUES* FOR PJ:PJ:NG STRUCTURAL RELJ:ABJ:LJ:TY MODEL NO. VAR:IABLE CARBON STEEL 304 ss 316 ss 1 PIPE-DIA S.OOOE+OO 2 WALL/DIA 1.400E-01 3 SRESIDtJAL 6.8351:+00 6.178E+OO

6.178E+OO 4

INT%DBP'l'B 1.1001:+01 5 LID-RATIO 6.000B+OO 6 PROB/VOL 1.000E-04 7 FIRST-ISI S.OOOB+OO 8 FRBQ-ISI 1.000E+Ol 9 EPST-PND S.OOOE-03 1.000B-03 1.000E-03 10 ASTAR-PND -2.4001:-01 -4.BOOB-01 -4.BOOE-01 11 ANtJO-PND 3.000B+OO 1.6001:+00 1.6001:+00 12 HOURS/CY 7.4471:+03 13 PRBSSURB 1.3001:+00 14 STRBSS-SS 7.5181:+00 6.7961:+00 6.7961:+00 15 SCC-COD'l" 1.795E-10 1.7951:-08 1.616E-09 16 SCC-BXPNT 2.1611:+00 17 SCC-TIMEI 1.000B+OO 18 ECW-RATB 6.3701:-07 6.370!!:-09 6.370E-09 19 NOP'l'RS/BR 6.000E+Ol 20 S'L.aESS-FT S.468E+OO 4.943E+OO 4.943E+OO 21 NOSTRS/CY S.OOOE+OO 22 STRESS-ST 1.504E+Ol 1.359E+Ol 1.3591:+01 23 FCG-COEFF 1.202E-11 9.140E-12 9.140E-12 24 .FCG-EXPNT 3.700E+OO 4.000E+OO 4.000E+OO 25 . FCG-'l'BOLD 3.SOOE+OO 4.600E+OO 4.600E+OO 26 LIMIT-DSL -9.700E-Ol 27 LIMIT-PBS 6.835E+Ol 6.178:B+Ol 6.1781:+01 28 STRESS-DL 1.7771:+01 1.6061:+01 1.6061:+01 29 FREQ-DLTR 1.000E-03

Note:

A negative number in thia table indicates* the ah*olute value is the specified fraction of the pipe wall thickness.

W V e Sample output fram the SPFIIPROP Program STROC'l'URAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA) WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

m=======******z==========s==*================================

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 1: CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD SMALL LEAK NCYCLE

40 NFAILS c 1000 NTRIAL =

5000 NOVARS

29 NtJMSET
6 NtJMISI
5 NtJMSSC
7 NtJM'l'RC
7 NtJMFMD
4 VARIABLE DISTRIBO'l'IOR MEDIAN DEVUTIOR SB:CFT USAGE RO.

NAME TYPE LOG VALUE OR FACTOR MV/SD RO. SOB 1 P:CPE-DIA NORMAL RO S.OOOOD+OO 2.SOOOD-02 .oo 1 SET 2 WALL/DIA NORMAL RO 1.,0000-01 4.2000D-03 .oo 2 SET 3 SRES:CDOAL NORMAL YES 6.8349D+OO 1.4125D+OO .oo 3 SET 4

C:N'l'%DEPTB

NORMAL YES 1.1000D+Ol 1.4125D+OO 1.00 4

SET 5 L/D-RAT:CO NORMAL YES 6.0000D+OO 1.,12so+oo 1.00 5 SET 6 PROB/VOL CORST>>rl' - 1.9000D-04 6 SET 7 F:CRST-:CSI CORSTAN'l' - S.OOOOD+OO 1 IS:C 8 FREQ-IS:C CORSTAN'l' - 1.0000D+Ol 2 ISI 9 EPST-PRD CORSTAN'l' - S.OOOOD-03 3 ISI 10 ASTAR-PRD CORSTAR'l' - -1.6000D-Ol ISI 11 AROO-PRD CONSTANT - 3.0000D+OO 5 ISI 12 HOURS/CY NORMAL YES 7.4473D+03 1.0SOOD+OO 1.00 1 SSC 13 PRESSURE NORMAL RO 1.3000D+OO 1.SOOOD-02 .oo 2 SSC 14 STRESS-SS NORMAL YES 7.5184D+OO 1.2589D+OO .oo 3 SSC 15 SCC-COEPP' NORMAL YES 1.7950D-10 2.3714D+OO .00 4 SSC 16 SCC-EXPRT CORST>>rl' - 2.1610D+OO 5 SSC 17 SCC-TIMEI CORSTAN'l' - 1.0000D+OO 6 SSC 18 ECW-RA'l'E NORMAL YES 6.3700D-07 2.3714D+OO .oo 7 SSC* 19 ROF'l'RS/BR CORS'l'AN'l' - 6.0000D+Ol 1 TRC 20 S'l'RES S-l"'l' NORMAL YES S.4679D+OO 1.4125D+OO .oo 2 'l'RC 21 ROS'l'RS/CY CORS'l'AR'l' - S.OOOOD+OO 3 'l'RC 22 STRESS-ST NORMAL YES 1.5037D+Ol 1.2589D+OO 1.00 4 TRC 23 FCG-COEFF NORMAL YES 1.2017D-11 2.8508D+OO 1.00 s TRC 24 FCG-EXPNT CORS'l'AN'l' - 3.7000D+OO 6 TRC 25 FCG-THOLD CONSTANT - 3.SOOOD+OO 7 TRC 26 LIMIT-DSL NORM.IL RO -9.7000D-Ol 1.0000D-02 .oo 1 nm 27 LIMIT-PBS CONST.u'l' - O.OOOOD+OO 2 nm 28 STRESS-DL CONSTANT - O.OOOOD+OO 3 nm 29 FREQ-DLTR CONSTANT - O.OOOOD+OO 4 nm

e Sample output from the SPFMPROF Program (Continued)

PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED LIMITING DEPTH FOR SMALL LEAK NUMBER FAILED* 1000 NUMBER OF TRIALS m 1850 END OF CYCLE FAILURE PROBABILITY WITBOtJ'l' AND WI:TB IN-SERVICE INSPECTION 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 39.0 40.0 FOR PERIOD 1.36468D-10 1.71093D-07 2.34797D-07 3.28531D-07 1.47684D-06 4.37640D-07 3.76057D-06 1.60713D-06 1.27135D-05 6.91949D-07 2.67330D-06 2.41523D-06 2.43428D-06 3.00890D-05 6.13420D-06 1.20157D-OS 2.36884D-06 2.89801D-06 2.83002D-06 9.09847D-06 1.25743:i:>-05 1.23907D-06 7.60720D-06 1.803~JD-05 S.3630SD-06 1.19744D-05 2.01290D-06 2.90411D-06 5.02873D-06 4.643050-06 3.06310D-05 5.97345D-07 1.61848D-05 2.48078D-06 1.27331D-05 4.30501D-05 7.10732D-06 4.21054D-06 4.81422D-05 7.28623D-06 COM. TOTAL 1.36468D-10 1.71230D-07 4.06027D-07 7.34558D-07 2.21140D-06 2.64904D-06 6.40961D-06 8.01674D-06 2.07302D-05 2.1,2220-os 2.40955D-05 2.65107D-05 2.89450D-05 5.90340D-05 6.51682D-05 7.71839D-05
7. 95528D-OS 8.24508D-OS 8.52808D-05 9.43793D-05 1.06954D-04

1. 08,193D-04 1.15800D-04 1.33831D-04 1.39194D-04 1.51169D-04 1.53182D-Oj 1.56086D-04 1.61115D-04 1.65758D-04

1. 96389D-04 1.96986D-04 2.13171D-04 2~15652D-04 2.28385D-04 2.71435D-04 2.78542D-04 2.82753D-04 2.87567D-04 2.94853D-04 DEVIATION ON COMOLATIVB TOTALS*

FOR PERIOD 1.36468D-10

1. 71093D-07 2.34797D-07 3.28531D-07 1.47684D-06 2.18820D-09 1.88261D-08 8.08027D-09 6.38155D-08 3.64978D-09 2.83224D-08 1.38335D-08 4.40257D-08 4.49872D-07 2.88792D-07 7.30622D-09 1.728980-09 8.73480D-10 3.06338D-09 S.08191D-09 1.03947D-08 2.54459D-09 4.33213D-09 2.95939D-08 4.21174D-09 1.56101D-10 3.44819D-11 6.68258D-12 2.20601D-10 7.03606D-11 6.15526D-10 1.99758D-12 S.52295D-10 S.45726D-11 4.20968D-10 1.55216D-11 3.04749D-12 1.64209D-12 5.95713D-12 1.93065D-12 6.32189D-06 CUM. TOTAL 1.36468D-10

1. 71230D-07 4.06027D-07 7.34558D-07 2.21140D-06 2.21359D-06 2.23241D-06 2.24049D-06 2.30431D-06 2.30796D-06 2.33628D-06 2.35012D-06 2.39414D-06 2.84401D-06

'- 3.13281D-06 3.14011D-06 3.14184D-06 3.14271D-06 3.14578D-06 3.15086D-06 3.16125D-06 3.16380D-06 3.16813D-06 3.19773D-06 3.20194D-06 3.20209D-06 3.20213D-06 3.20213D-06 3.20235D-06 3.20243D-06

3. 203.04D-06 3.20304D-06 3.20359D~06 3.20365D-06 3.20407D-06 3.20409D-06 3.20409Doe06 3.20409D-06 3.20410D-06 3.20410D-06 9.69380D-07

SRHA P1C]l-t:~ West i ngl10use ESBU - NTD Max i IPIUIPI Probab i I i ty of 0.2949£-03 Max i IPIUIPI T i 1P1e of 40 Cycles Current Case 1 X 1.0 I a I a I = No ISi .a = WitJ1 ISi

r,

.. 1 ** 1 100....-.....--.....-----r-.....------------.-. -.--.---...--.-.....-,--.---..~------ i i 1111 1

. 1::1 11:1

.. 1::1 10 IL..

ii I.............................

1::L,1 IE:' IE::

a:*

11:I

tit::

I I ,:i.=*.'i 1.8 * * * - - "ii **.*.* C]annn.n.Jil.n.a.a.Q.ClO.CllJIJljJOOOOOll[][]J] 1aaaal!Jaaa I I 0.1'--.,__.,__..._ ________..J-_.__.__,___.__.__._--&.._,__,___,___,___.___, 0.0 25 50 75 100 P~~~~~t ~r H~~i~~~ Ti~~ Case 1 Tit I e : CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD SMALL LEAK

System: Piping Structural Rellablllty Estimates ror Plant: s*v :-"r u"','+ I. f\\l\\ <; *- Segment: ____ ___;;;.3 ___ 3=--~3_:/....._ ____________ _ Page_of _ Total Number of Structural Elements:. ---- Number of Elements In ASME Section XI ISi Plan: ___ _ No. Input Parameter Description Check lm>ut Choice (for Table I Value) Set Value

l Type of Piping Material 304 ss 316 ss

<&;boo StceV 2 Temperature at Pipe Weld Low (ISO) Medium (350) High (550) .s--os 3 Nominal Pipe Size Small (2) Medium (S) Large (16) 3 4 Pine Wall Thickness Thin (.06) Nonnal (.14) Thick (.22) G.-6~~ s Normal Operatina Pressure Low (0.S) Medium (1.3) Hieb (2.1) ,7 I 6 Residual Stress Level None (0.0) (Moderate (0.1 D Maximum (0.2) 7 Initial Flaw Size Small (.OS) Medium (.11) Qarge (.Im 8 Steady-State Stress Level Low (.OS) Medium (.11) Hi2h (.17) , 3 I 2. 9 Stress Corrosion Potential \\u....... mnv Moderate (O.S) Maximum ( 1.0) I 10 Material Wastage Potential None (0.0) Moderate (0.5) Maximum ( 1.0) I I II Hi1h Cycle Fatigue Loads None (0.0) , Moderate (.OIW Maximum (.16) 12 Fatigue Transient Loads Low (.10) r:Jdedium (.2W High (.34) 13 Fatigue Transient Frequency Low (S) CMcdium (l :ii> High (21) 14 Design-Limiting Stress (Break Only) Low (.10) Medium (.26) Hi2h (.42) ,22~ e lS Optional Crack lnsocction Interval Low (6) <Medium ( 1m) Hiih (14) 16 Optional Crack Inspection Accuracy High (.16) ~4\\) C Low c.Jii) I I

For optional.numeric input, use a value (and associated units) from the standard range given in Table I.

3A Small Leak Probablllty, No ISi: -li+r "'?J=--~.... E ..... ~.,,..~----- Optional Leak t>robability With ISi:...... 2=.6..._~--*1 _f"_-_C:, ____ "3B Full Break Probability, No 1s1(J.1.~ E~__1,,*) Optional Break Probability With ISi: ~l-_5,~E'--....... t-C ____ _ Comments: Lo.. v Ucu..... ..., C, l<S Cdclt:. C, lfct.\\:c.bk.. v"l~-t~? l*x.l -h:r <2. st I~ _-;J.c..--J ~- ., e-~J l'h. ""+t.. c,"'-: ( H c. FL ? II -h ('v1 ",.6_,.,_k_

f -: - 1 C

'2. :,"7 i;: -. ,. C -= L... "> 7 E-16 i.,.-*I.;.T T -~,~~*,:: - I { '7 '.:.:" -s:C

2. ~1 E*q/16 :*

2."i,*'iE-lc .1 *;-:,, r; r*.;* E - I I...,, ? ;.:Z

I'. System : _ _,.:.)I_'\\_;-,.;.;...,,. ____ Piping Structural Rellablllay EsUmales for Planl: _s_*v_~_,. ~v _U_.., __,*+_....... / __ I Segmenl: / Page_of_ Total Number of Structural Elements:.a..* ___ Number of Elements In ASME Section XI ISi Plan: ___ _ No. lnpul Parameter Description Check Input Choice (for Table I Value) Set Value

I Type of Piping Material 304 ss 316 ss

<.:&boo *s1~ 2 Temperature at Pipe Weld Low (150) Medium (350) High (550) .56S 3 Nominal Pipe Size Small (2) Medium (S) Large (16) 3c 4 Pipe Wall Thickness Thin (.06) Normal (.14) Thick (.22) c-.a33 s Normal Operating Pressure Low (0.5) Medium (1.3) High (2.1) .7 6 Residual Stress Level None (0.0) .(Moderate (0. u> Maximum (0.2) 7 Initial Flaw Size. ~ ....,.DSV Medium (.11) Large (.17) 8 Steady-State Stress Level Low (.OS) Medium (.11) High (.17) 0.616 9 Stress Corrosion Potential CNonc.filOJ Moderate (O.S) Maximum ( 1.0) to Material Wastage Potential None (0.0) Moderale (0.5) Maximum ( 1.0) I I II High Cycle Fatigue Loads (None (O.ov* Moderate (.08) Maximum (.16) 12 Fatigue Transient Loads Low (.10) Medium I.l2j High (.34) 13 Fatigue Transient Frequency (Low(S)) Medium (13) High (21) 14 Design-Limiting Stress (Break Only) Low (.10) Medium (.26) High (.42) ,C. -z. 15 Optional Crack Inspection Interval Low (6) (Medium (I oi) High (14) 16 Optipnal Crack Inspection Accuracy High (.16) (Medium (.24)) Low (.32) I

For optional.numeric input, use a value (and associated units) from the standard range given in Table I.

I A Small Leak Probablllty, No ISi: "2.. 9-z F - 5" Optional Leak Prohablllty With ISi: 1 .. <J 'd-E- J le, Full Break Probability, No ISi: S:.7-I £ -11 Optional Break ProhabllUy With ISi: S.21 E-11 Comments: AJl.J*..., 1, 1.,/~s {J:,t?.CI .tN 9 / -it...,µ::(

r,,,.(o~c.uA

..f2.rc.""'

o. I 4'1,

+-o . '2.. - _+_c..._._b.._:4-__ + __,1'--; +-(?~-* ____ ....:,::;kk...:a..1.....:.Li"'"5.J~~-J-1-r.s1,____...:..* _I ---'-'N~o=---_.J.."--,...;;.*)_,,_,. y'-----=o_J_...;..e.:.....:" "'=$'.-="°"'...;...:...* +* _1_1.,_-_....,.Mo___,..I,_. -=--...,...ff'-~_1 _~--'---=-e_...,e(-'...:."'-'-'" h *ft..* r r /,,:;'-( l=-11 24 -~h~~~~~~~~-~l6~*(~k~~~-~~~~-~~~~~~~-_..:..2*~~~~~-~1~2:__~~~D-~~~\\,*~~~~~~~~* ~S'"~~s.~.~Z~/~E~-/~l~~~~~~::n.~~*~7~g~~~~~ 'l(j S'-,l,bb.ll.,.. ..J.c.,k,e '6( '-f'*rt.1.-.... y... ,4e...;. 14 +~ l'.J.S-j._;HS"" I.C6E~~ :.' l,~ti.-=t '""tr:: "'1.5I r- { ...,,.,..,.I:,~... &-ct f>l'l.,',i,a.._5 JI,,,::; ~ll'.J>w 1'2. .,,.,.bbc,*5 /', 12 i:: -~. r* D:v,*c~ 1-:,y 3'-c(. C\\v)<:..

STRU~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT (SRRA) io WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

===========---------=====================-===-====-========----=========------- INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 1 -A CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD SMALL LEAK NCYCLE = 40 NFAILS = 1000 NTRIAL 5000 NOVARS = 29 NUMSET = 6 NUMISI = 5 NUMSSC = 7 NUMTRC = 7 NUMFMD = 4 VARIABLE DISTRIBUTION MEDIAN DEVIATION SHIFT USAGE NO. NAME TYPE LOG VALUE OR FACTOR MV/SD NO. SUB 1 PIPE-DIA NORMAL NO 3.0000D+Ol 1.5000D-01 .00 1 SET 2 WALL/DIA NORMAL NO 3.3000D-02 9.9000D-04 .00 2 SET 3 SRESIDUAL NORMAL YES 6.1872D+OO 1.4125D+OO .00 3 SET 4 INT%DEPTH NORMAL YES 5.0000D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.00 4 SET 5 L/D-RATIO NORMAL YES 6.0000D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.00 5 SET 6 PROB/VOL ~ CONSTANT - 1.0000D-04 6 SET 7 FIRST-ISI CONSTANT - 5.0000D+OO 1 ISI 8 FREQ-ISI - CONSTANT - 1.0000D+Ol 2 ISI 9 EPST-PND CONSTANT - 5.0000D-03 3 ISI 10 ASTAR-PND .. CONSTANT - -2.4000D-01 4 ISI 11 ANUU-PND CONSTANT - 3.0000D+OO 5 ISI 12 HOURS/CY NORMAL YES 7.4473D+03 1.0SOOD+OO 1.00 1 SSC 13 PRESSURE NORMAL NO

7. 00000-01*

1.5000D-02 .00 2 SSC 14 STRESS-SS NORMAL YES 6.0634D+OO 1.2589D+OO .00 3 SSC 15 SCC-COEFF NORMAL YES 3.5900D-13 2.3714D+OO .00 4 SSC 16 SCC-EXPNT CONSTANT - 2.1610D+OO 5 SSC 17 SCC-TIMEI CONSTANT - 1.0000D+OO 6 SSC 18 ECW-RATE NORMAL YES 1.2740D-07 2.3714D+OO .00 7 SSC 19.NOFTRS/HR CONSTANT - 6.0000D+Ol 1 TRC 20 STRESS-FT NORMAL YES 6.1872D-02 1.4125D+OO .00 2 TRC 21 NOSTRS/CY CONSTANT - 5.0000D+OO 3 TRC 22 STRESS-ST NORMAL YES 1.3612D+Ol 1.2589D+OO 1.00 4 TRC 23 FCG-COEFF NORMAL YES 1.2017D-11 2.8508D+OO 1.00 5 TRC

24 FCG-EXPNT

- CONSTANT - 3~7000D+OO 6 TRC 25 FCG-THOLD CONSTANT - 3.5000D+OO 7 TRC 26 LIMIT-DSL NORMAL NO -9.7000D-01 1.0000D-02 .00 1 FMD 27 LIMIT-PBS CONSTANT - O.OOOOD+OO 2 FMD 28 STRESS-DL CONSTANT - O.OOOOD+OO 3 FMD 29 FREQ-DLTR CONSTANT - O.OOOOD+OO 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED LIMITING DEPTH FOR SMALL LEAK NUMBE~ FAILED= 10 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 END OF FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION CYCLE FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD cm,,,:. TOTAL 24.0 2.10281D-08 2.10281D-08 1.28102D-10 1.28102D-10 27.0 3.66165D-07 3.87193D-07 2.10938D-11

1. 49196D-10 29.0 8.60021D-07 1.24721D-06 1.58195D-iO 3.07391D-10 30.0 5.79822D-07 1.82704D-06 2.44683D-11 3.31859D-10 36.0 8.72122D-08 1.91425D-06 1.12609D-14 3.31870D-10 37.0 1.29280D-07 2.04353D-06 2.75785D-14 3.31898D-10 38.0 5.09976D-09 2.04863D-06 1.19192D-15 3.31899D-10 39.0 2.76443D-05 2.96929D-05 7.49040D-10 1.08094D-09 40.0 O.OOOOOD+OO 2.96929D-05 O.OOOOOD+OO 1.08094D-09 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS=

9.38128D-06 5.66592D-08

.. WESTINGHOUSE STRUC~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 2A CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE = NOVARS = NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 .INT%DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST-PND 10 ASTAR-PND - 11 ANUU-PND 12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19

NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL 27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7

DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO NORMAL NO. NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL

NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT -

CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+Ol 3.3000D-02* 6.1872D+OO 5.0000D+OO 6.0000D+OO 1.0000D-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+Ol 5.0000D-03 -2. 400.0D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 6.0634D+OO 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO* 1.0000D+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 6.1872D-02 5.0000D+OO 2.1036D+Ol 1.2017D-ll 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol 1.2374D+Ol 1.0000D-03 NTRIAL = NUMISI = NUMFMD = 5000 5 4 DEVIATION OR FACTOR SHIFT USAGE l.SOOOD-01 9.9000D-04 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.0500D+OO 1.5000D-02 1.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO 1.4125D+OO MV/SD NO. SUB .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00 -1.00 1.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1

2.

3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 SET SET SET SET SET SET ISI ISI ISI ISI ISI SSC SSC SSC SSC SSC SSC SSC TRC TRC TRC TRC TRC TRC TRC FMD FMD FMD FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK END OF CYCLE . 0 40.0 NUMBER FAILED= 0 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 .FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL 5.21060D-ll

o.OOOOOD+OO 5.21060D-11 5.21060D-11 5.21060D-11 O.OOOOOD+OO 5.21060D-ll S.21060D-ll

WESTINGHOUSE STRUC'~ RELI~ILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT ( SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM.SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

=-======================================== ==========---===========

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 3.p. CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD SMALL LEAK NCYCLE = NOVARS = NUMSSC = 40 29 7 VARIABLE NO. NAME DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20

. 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 PIPE-DIA NORMAL NO WALL/DIA NORMAL NO
sRESIDUAL NORMAL YES INT%DEPTH NORMAL YES L/D-RATIO NORMAL YES PROB/VOL CONSTANT -

FIRST-ISI - CONSTANT - FREQ-ISI - CONSTANT - EPST-PND - CONSTANT - ASTAR-PND* ---:- CONSTANT - ANUU-PND - CONSTANT - HOURS/CY NORMAL YES PRESSURE NORMAL NO STRESS-SS NORMAL YES SCC-COEFF NORMAL YES SCC-EXPNT CONSTANT - SCC-TIMEI CONSTANT - ECW-RATE NORMAL . YES NOFTRS/HR - CONSTANT - STRESS-FT NORMAL* YES NOSTRS/CY - CONSTANT - STRESS-ST NORMAL YES FCG-COEFF NORMAL YES FCG-EXPNT - CONSTANT - FCG-THOLD - CONSTANT - LIMIT-DSL NORMAL NO LIMIT-PBS CONSTANT - STRESS-DL - CONSTANT - FREQ-DLTR CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = .NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+OO 8.6000D-02 6.1872D+OO 1.7000D+Ol 6.0000D+OO 1.0000D-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+Ol 5.0000D-03 -3.2000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01

1. 9304D+0-1 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO l.OOOOD+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 4.9497D+OO

1. 3000D+Ol 1.3612D+Ol 1.2017D-11 3.7000D+OO 3.SOOOD+OO

-9.7000D-01 O.OOOOD+OO O.OOOOD+OO O.OOOOD+OO NTRIAL NUMISI = NUMFMD 5000 5 4 DEVIATION OR FACTOR SHIFT USAGE 1.5000D-02 2.5800D-03 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.0SOOD+OO 1.SOOOD-02 1.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 1.0000D-02 MV/SD NO. SUB .00 .00 .. 00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00

1. 00 1.00

.00 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4 ISI 5 ISI 1 SSC 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 SSC 6 SSC 7 SSC 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 TRC 6 TRC 7* TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED LIMITING DEPTH FOR SMALL LEAK NUMBER FAILED= 1000 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 4001 END OF FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION CYCLE FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL

1. 0 5.33621D-09 5.33621D-09 5.33621D-09 5.33621D-09 2.0 2.82790D-08 3.36152D-08

, 2.82790D-08 3.36152D-08 3.0 9.99994D-09 4.36151D-08 9.99994D-09 4.36151D-0.8 4.0

1. 9 8672D- 08 6.34823D-08 1.98672D-08 6.34823D-08 5.0 3.02691D-08 9.37514D-08 3.02691D-08 9.37514D-08 6.0 2.01516D-08 1.13903D-07 1.06226D-10 9.38576D-08 7.0

- 4. 5 3 7 3 lD - 0 8 1.59276D-07 7.14375D-09 1.0lOOlD-07 8.0 1.16573D-07 2.75849D-07 2.94568D-08 1.30458D-07 9.0 3.65160D-08 3.12365D-07 5.31718D-09 1.35775D-07 10.0 2.93348D-07 6.05713D-07 2.08838D-07 3.44613D-07

11. 0 9.01800D-08 6.95893D-07 5.50401D-08 3.99653D-07

2.37006D-07e l.407*D-07 1'2. 0 9.32899D-07 5.40398D-07 13.0 4.32973D-08 9.76196D-07 1.28095D-08 5.53207D-07 14.0 4.85964D-07 l.46216D-06 l.43868D-07 6.97075D-07 15.0 2.73085D-08 l.48947D-06 9.11311D-09 7.06188D-07 16.0 4.04441D-08 l.52991D-06 6.34888D-ll 7.06251D-07 17.0 3.74264D-08 l.56734D-06 l.13687D-10 7.06365D-07 18.0 5.55489D-07 2.12283D-06 2.79140D-09 7.09156D-07 19.0 2.20199D-07 -2.34303D-06 l.00298D-07 8.09455D-07 20.0 1.47548D-07 2.49058D-06 9.69207D-08 9.06375D-07

21. 0

1. 66138D-07 2.65671D-06 4.73590D-09 9.lllllD-07 22.0 7.20435D-08 2.72876D-06 l.16631D-09 9.12278D-07 23.0 2.21087D-07 2.94984D-06 1.98339D-08 9.32111D-07 24~0 9.67381D-07 3.91722D-06 8.10869D-07

1. 74298D- 06 25.0 6.67833D-08 3.98401D-06 6.44789D-09 1.74943D-06 26.0 l.28057D-06 5.26457D-06 4.93863D-10 l.74992D-06 27.0 l.52683D-06 6.79141D-06 7.16555D-09

1. 75709D- 06 28.0 1.75026D-07 6.96643D-06 1.18641D-08 1.76895D-06 29.0

1. 29176D-07 7.09561D-06 3.44552D-10

1. 7693 OD- 06 30.0 l.12873D-06 8.22433D-06 8.72226D-09

1. 77802D- 06 31.0 2.90523D-06 1.11296D-05 3.63828D-07 2.14185D-06 32.0 2.20295D-07 1.13499D-05 2.99189D-10 2.14215D-06 33.0 4.42942D-07 l.17928D-05 3.58858D-07 2.SOlOOD-06 34.0 7.57293D-08 1.18685D-05 3.76356D-09 2.50477D-06 35.0 2.03409D-07

1. 20719D-05 9.03504D-08 2.59512D-06 36.0 1.89506D-07 1.22614D-05 4.12266D-ll 2.59516D-06 37.0 3.82998D-07

1. 26444D- 05 3.80649D-10 2.59554D-06 38.0 4.60444D-07 1.31049D-05

.1.66546D-08 2.61219D-06 39.0 5.77702D-07 1.36826D-05 8.15700D-08 2.69376D-06 40.0 1.28028D-07 1.38106D-05 2.22040D-10 2.69399D-06 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS= 3.78282D-07 1.88150D-07

WESTINGHOUSE STRUC~ RELIABILITY AND RISK zttESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

==--=---------=-=---------===---------=--=-------==-==---------------------

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4A CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD SMALL LEAK NCYCLE = N.OVARS = NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 INT%-DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST-PND 10 ASTAR-PND 11 ANUU-PND 12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19 NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL 27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7 DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - . _ CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+OO 8.6000D-02 6.1872D+OO 1.7000D+Ol 6.0000D+OO 1.0000D-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+Ol 5.0000D-03 -3.2000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 1.9304D+Ol 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO 1.0000D+OO

1. 2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 6.1872D-02 1.3000D+Ol 1.3612D+Ol

1. 2017D-11 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO

-9.7000D-01 O.OOOOD+OO O.OOOOD+OO O.OOOOD+OO NTRIAL = NUMISI = NUMFMD = DEVIATION OR FACTOR 1.5000D-02 2.5800D-03 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO

1. 4125D+OO 1.0500D+OO 1.5000D-02 1.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 1.0000D-02 SHIFT MV/SD

.00 .00 .00 1.00

1. 00 1.00

.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00 .00 5000 5 4 USAGE NO. SUB 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4 ISI 5 ISI 1 SSC 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 SSC 6 SSC 7 SSC 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 TRC 6 TRC 7 TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED LIMITING DEPTH FOR SMALL LEAK NUMBER FAILED= 212 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 END OF FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION CYCLE FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL

1. 0 1.76082D-12 1.76082D-12 1.76082D-12 1.76082D-12 7.0 1.09289D-09 1.09465D-09 5.49121D-12 7.25202D-12 8.0 5.34339D-09 6.43804D-09

2. 81845D*- ll 3.54366D-11 9.0 2.59125D-09 9.02929D-09

1. 66662D-ll 5.21028D-ll 10.0 4.26094D-09

1. 32902D-08 6.20295D-11 1.14132D-10 11.0 1.45571D-09 1.47459D-08 1.15176D-11 1.25650D-10 12.0 1.65809D-07 l.80555D-07 1.52012D-07 1.52137D-07 13.0 9.00222D-10 1.81456D-07 1.52838D-11 1.52153D-07 14.0 l.12454D-08 1.92701D-07 6.45330D-10 1.52798D-07 15.0 2.20617D-07 4.13318D-07 4.61196D-08 1.98918D-07 16.0 7.46818D-09 4.20787D-07 5.91284D-12 1.98924D-07

2.82734D 7. 096.D-15 1'7. 0 4.21069D-07 1.98924D-07 18.0 2.79411D-08 4.49010D-07 1.97737D-09 2.00901D-07 19.0 8.85232D-10 4.49896D-07 2.59251D-13 2.00901D-07 20.0 8.77729D-08 5.37669D-07 1.51693D-10 2.01053D-07

21. 0 6.32410D-09 5.43993D-07 2.69612D-ll 2.01080D-07 22.0 1.36435D-07 6.80428D-07 4.79188D-09 2.05872D-07 23.0 1.67732D-07 8.48160D-07 8.01992D-08 2.86071D-07 24.0 2.74418D-08

-8.75601D-07 l.16735D-10 2.86188D-07 25.0 3.75165D-07

1. 25077D- 06 2.20248D-09 2.88390D-07 26.0 8.71373D-09 1.25948D-06 9.59812D-13 2.88391D-07 27.0 6.49087D-08 1.32439D-06 2.83763D-12 2.88394D-07 28.0 7.53753D-08

1. 39976D- 06 3.98994D-11 2.88434D-07 29.0 8.43775D-07 2.24354D-06 3.29445D-10 2.88763D-07 30.0 1.63419D-06 3.87772D-06 4.63364D-08 3.35100D-07

31. 0 2.90218D-08 3.90675D-06 9.24233D-12 3.35109D-07 32.0 1.23540D-07 4.03029D-06 6.27466D-12 3.35115D-07 33.0 4.18127D-08 4.07210D-06 8.71362D-11 3.35202D-07 34.0 1.38674D-07 4.21077D-06 4.40549D-10 3.35643D-07 35.0 1.12562D-07 4.32334D-06 8.67580D-11 3.35730D-07 36.0 2.07653D-08 4.34410D-06 1.14623D-14 3.35730D-07 37.0 5.33808D-07 4.87791D-06 3.22663D-08 3.67996D-07 38.0 8.84622D-08 4.96637D-06 2.29820D-08 3.90978D-07 39.0 2.15771D-06 7.12408D-06 2.36458D-10 3.91215D-07 40~0 8.76001D-07 8.0000BD-06 3.56712D-11 3.91250D-07 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS=

5.37727D-07

1. 21395D-07

. ~ -~ WESTINGHOUSE STRU~L RELIABILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD ~------------------------------------------------------------------------------ INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 5A CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE = NOVARS = NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 INT%DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST-PND 10 ASTAR-PND 11 ANUU-PND 12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19 NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL 27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7 DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO. NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - -- CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL. YES NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - 'NORMAL NO NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+OO 8.6000D-02 6.1872D+OO 1.7000D+Ol 6.0000D+OO 1.0000D-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+Ol 5.0000D-03 -3.2000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 1.9304D+Ol 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO 1.0000D+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 6.1872D-02 1.3000D+Ol 1.3612D+Ol 1.2017D-11 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol 1.3921D+Ol 1.0000D-03 NTRIAL = NUMISI = NUMFMD = DEVIATION OR FACTOR

1. 5000D- 02 2.5800D-03 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.0500D+OO 1.5000D-02 1.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO 1.4125D+OO SHIFT MV/SD

.oo .00 .00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00

1. 00

-1.00 1.00 5000 5 4 USAGE NO. SUB 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4 ISI 5 ISI 1 SSC 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 *ssc 6 SSC 7 SSC 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 TRC 6 TRC 7 TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK END OF CYCLE 1.0 40.0 NUMBER FAILED= 4 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL 5.77248D-13 O.OOOOOD+OO 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS= 5.77248D-13 O.OOOOOD+OO 2.88537D-13 5.77248D-13 5.172"48D-13 2.88537D-13

WESTINGHOUSE STRU~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.. ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 6t CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE = NOVARS = NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 INT%DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO' 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST-PND 10 ASTAR-PND 11 ANUU-PND .12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19* NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL

27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7

DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG* NORMAL NO NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - __ CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL

NO NORMAL YES

'NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+OO 8.6000D-02 6.1872D+OO 1.7000D+Ol 6.0000D+OO 1.0000D-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+Ol 5.0000D-03 -3.2000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 1.9304D+Ol 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO 1.0000D+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 4.9497D+OO 1.3000D+Ol 6.1872D+OO 1.2017D-11 3.7000D+OO 3.SOOOD+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol 1.3921D+Ol 1.0000D-03 NTRIAL NUMISI = NUMFMD = 5000 5 4 . DEVIATION OR FACTOR SHIFT USAGE l.5000D-02 2.5800D-03 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.0SOOD+OO 1.SOOOD-02 1.258.9D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO 1.4125D+OO MV/SD NO. SUB .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00 -1.00 1.00 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4

ISI 5

ISI 1 SSC 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 SSC 6 SSC 7 SSC. 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 TRC 6 TRC 7 TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES *OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK NUMBER FAILED= 730 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 END OF FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION CYCLE FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL

1. 0 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 2.0 5.46153D-13 1.12340D-12 5.46153D:..13 1.12340D-12 3.0 1.39346D-12 2.51686D-12 1.39346D-12 2.51686D-12 4.0 2.37371D-11 2.62540D-11 2.37371D-11 2.62540D-11 5.0 1.19330D-ll 3.81869D-11 l.19330D-11 3.81869D-11 6.0 5.62425D-12 4.38112D-11 2.81250D-14 3.82151D-11 7.0 1.48387D-ll 5.86499D-11 7.42040D-14 3.82893D-11 8.0 1.01711D-11 6.88210D-11 5.23619D-14 3.83416D-11 9.0 2.93011D-11 9.81220D-11 1.94262D-13 3.85359D-11 10.0 6.29237D-ll 1.61046D-10 2.17582D-ll 6.02941D-11

11. 0 1.78406D-11

1. 78886D-10 5.83083D-12 6.61249D-ll

1. 66696D-10e 1.68&-11

12. 0 3.45582D-10 8.29898D-11 13.0 1.66445D-10 5.12026D-10 5.64067D-11 1.39397D-10 14.0 1.45492D-11 5.26576D-10 2.13708D-12 1.41534D-10 15.0 1.61584D-11 5.42734D-10 8.92588D-12

1. 50460D-10 16.0 2.40726D-10 7.83460D-10 5.96682D-13 1.51056D-10 17.0 7.00046D-12 7.90460D-10 1.17445D-14 1.51068D-10 18.0 6.78854D-ll 8.58346D-10 2.51857D-13 1.51320D-10 19.0 3.71188D-11

-8.95464D-10 1.39496D-13 1.51459D-10 20.0 6.92899D-11 9.64754D-10

1. 3 6109D-13 1.51595D-10

21. 0 4.95187D-11 1.01427D-09

1. 56944D-13 1.51752D-10 22.0 2.79004D-ll 1.04217D-09 9.59814D-14 1.51848D-10 23.0 6.50975D-12

1. 04868D- 09 8.42256D-15 1.51857D-10 24.0 8.05422D-12 1.05674D-09 7.38584D-14

1. 5193 lD-10 25.0 2.70071D-ll 1.08374D-09 4.68541D-13 1.52399D-10 26.0 1.53808D-11

1. 09913D-09 1.45769D-15 1.52401D-10 27.0

1. 62739D-ll 1.11540D- 09 1.14662D-15 1.52402D-10 28.0

1. 43926D-11 1.12979D-09 1.17260D-15 1.52403D-10 29.0 4.44132D-ll 1.17421D-09 1.18046D-14 1.52415D-10 30.0 7.09100D-10 1.88331D-09 2.62784D-12 1.55043D-10 31.0 1.11706D-10 1.99501D-09 1.00495D-13

1. 55143D-10 32.0 2.03892D-11 2.01540D-09 2.35063D-13 1.55378D-10 33.0 4.21995D-ll 2.05760D-Q9 7.44558D-14 1.55453D-10 34.0 2.61749D-10 2.31935D-09 2.33811D-13 1.55686D-10 35.0 3.57910D-12 2.32293D-09 2.12942D-15

1. 55689D-10 36.0 1.73833D-12 2.32467D-09 3.26496D-17 1.55689D-10 37.0 1.06903D-11 2.33536D-09 6.90731D-16 1.55689D-10 3*9. 0 9.69264D-12 2.34505D-09 9.61244D-17 1.55689D-10 39.0 1.88258D-11 2.36387D-09 6.81776D-15 1.55696D-10 40.0 1.77373D-11 2.38161D-09 8.73537D-15 1.55705D-10 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS =

8.14670D-11 2.24329D-11

... WESTINGHOUSE STRUC~ RELIABILITY AND RISK A.ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU*NTD

=--------==-=-------------=-=--------=---------------------

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 7A CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE - NOVARS = NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 INT%DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST--PND 10 ASTAR-PND 11 ANUU-PND 12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19 NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL 27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7 DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - -- CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+OO 8.6000D-02 6.1872D+OO 1.7000D+Ol 6.0000D+OO

1. OOOOD-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+01 5.0000D-03

-3.2000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 1.9304D+01 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO 1.0000D+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+01 4.9497D+OO l.3000D+Ol 2.1036D+Ol .. 1. 201 7D - 11 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol l.3921D+Ol l.OOOOD-03 NTRIAL = NUMISI NUMFMD = DEVIATION OR FACTOR l.5000D-02 2.5800D-03 l.4125D+OO l.4125D+OO

1. 4125D+OO l.OSOOD+OO 1.5000D-02 l.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO l.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO 1.4125D+OO SHIFT MV/SD

.00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00

1. 00

.00 .00 .00 .00 .00

1. 00

-1. 00 1.00 5000 5 4 USAGE NO. SUB 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4 ISI 5 ISI 1 SSC* 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 SSC 6 SSC 7 SSC 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 TRC 6 TRC 7 TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK END OF CYCLE

1. 0 2.0

3. 0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

11. 0 NUMBER FAILED=

742 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL 5.77248D-13 5.27153D-13

1. 41246D-12 2.37371D-ll 1.19330D-11 6.41034D-12 l.40526D-ll l.01710D-ll 2.96783D-ll 6.26327D-ll l.81621D-ll 5.77248D-13 1.10440D-12 2.51686D-12 2.62540D-ll 3.81869D-ll 4.45973D-ll 5.86499D-ll 6.88210D-ll 9.84993D-ll l.61132D-10 l.79294D-10 5.77248D-13 5.27153D-13 l.41246D-12 2.37371D-11 l.19330D-11 3.20560D-14 7

0 2 7 3 1D - 14 5.22842D-14 2.84414D-13 2.16181D-11 5.86861D-12 5.77248D-13 l.10440D-12 2.51686D-12 2.62540D-11 3.81869D-11 3.82190D-11 3.82893D-ll 3.83416D-11 3.86260D-ll 6.02441D-ll 6.61127D-ll

3.16820D 7.118.D-11 1,2*. 0 4.96114D-10 1.37302D-10 13.0 l.60015D-ll S.12116D-10

1. 91032D-12 1.39212D-10 l.72906D-ll S.29407D-10 4.53963D-12 l.43752D-10 14.0 15.0 l.29079D-ll 5.42315D-10 5.95043D-12 l.49702D-10 16.0 2.40860D-10 7.83175D-10 5.9864SD-13 l.50301D-10 17.0 9.62828D-12 7.92803D-10 l.20406D-14 l.50313D-10 18.0 6.78205D-ll 8.60624D-10 2.51962D-13 l.50565D-10

19. 0.

3.67569D-ll -8.97380D-10 l.39556D-13 1.50704D-10 20.0 6.80901D-ll 9.65471D-10 l.35743D-13 1.50840D-10

21. 0 4.. 29629D-ll l.Q0843D-09 l.14109D-13

1. 50954D-10 22.0 3.31071D-11 l.04154D-09 l.41032D-13 l.51095D-10 23.0 5.06784D-12 l.04661D-09 3.21689D-15 l.51098D-10 24.0 7.06097D-12 l.05367D-09 8.04801D-14

1. 51179D-10 25.0 2.93174D-11 l.08299D-09 4.40943D-13 l.51620D-10 26.0 2.84728D-ll l.11146D- 09 1.85962D-15 1.51622D-10 27.0 4.48151D-12 1.11594D-09 4.04580D-16 1.51622D-10 28.0 3.19237D-11 1.14786D-09 1.06253D-14 1.51633D-10 29.0 3.32899D-11 1.18115D-09 3.84674D-15 1.51637D-10 30.0 7.11025D-10 1.89218D-09 2.85091D-12 1.54487D-10

31. 0 1.03563D-10 1.99574D-09 7.91392D-14 1.54567D-10 32.0 2.03032D-11 2.01605D-09 2.48618D-14 1.54591D-10 33.0 4.92013D-11 2.06525D-09 6.66456D-14

1. 54658D-10 34.0 2.53717D-10 2.31896D-09 2.21075D-13 1.54879D-10

3s.o 2.21783D-12 2.32118D-09 4.68031D-15 1.54884D-10 36.0

1. 82517D-12 2.32301D-09 1.71718D-17 1.54884D-10 37.0

1. 70251D-11 2.34003D-09 3.17397D-16 1.54884D-10

.38.0 9.76349D-12 2.34980D-09 7.69217D-16 1.54885D-10 39.0 7.17845D-12 2.35697D-09 7.66355D-15 1.54893D-10 40.0 1.11461D-11 2.36812D-09 1.10406D-14 1.54904D-10 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS = 8.02349D-11 2.21287D-11

" WESTINGHOUSE STRU~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD --=----------------------------------------=----------------=------------------ INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 1~ CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE = NOVARS NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 INT%DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST-PND 10 ASTAR-PND 11 ANUU-PND 12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19 NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL 27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7 DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+Ol 3.3000D-02 6.1872D+OO 5.0000D+OO 6.0000D+OO

1. OOOOD-04 5.0000D+OO 1.0000D+Ol 5.0000D-03

-2.4000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 6.0634D+OO 3.5900D-13

2.1610D+OO l.OOOOD+OO

1. 2740D- 07 6.0000D+Ol 6.1872D-02 s*. OOOOD+OO l.3612D+Ol

1. 2017D-ll 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol 1.2374D+Ol

1. OOOOD- 03 NTRIAL NUMISI =

NUMFMD = DEVIATION OR FACTOR l.5000D-Ol 9.9000D-04 l.4125D+OO l.4125D+OO l.4125D+OO l.0500D+OO l.SOOOD-02 l.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO l.4125D+OO SHIFT MV/SD .00 .00 .00

1. 00

1. 00 1.00

.00 .00 .00 .00 .00

1. 00

-1. 00 1.00 5000 5 4 USAGE NO. SUB 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4 ISI 5 ISI 1 SSC 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 SSC 6 SSC 7 SSC 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 TRC 6 TRC 7 TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK END OF CYCLE

0 40.0 NUMBER FAILED=

0 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL 5.21060D-ll O.OOOOOD+OO 5.21060D-ll 5.21060D-11 5.21060D-11 O.OOOOOD+OO 5.21060D-11 5.21060D-11

. *. WESTINGHOUSE STRUC~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.. ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

=-------===-------=-==----.-=-------=--------------------

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 2b CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE = NOVARS NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 PIPE-DIA 2 WALL/DIA 3 SRESIDUAL 4 INT%'DEPTH 5 L/D-RATIO 6 PROB/VOL 7 FIRST-ISI 8 FREQ-ISI 9 EPST-PND 10 ASTAR-PND 11 ANUU-PND 12 HOURS/CY 13 PRESSURE 14 STRESS-SS 15 SCC-COEFF 16 SCC-EXPNT 17 SCC-TIMEI 18 ECW-RATE 19 NOFTRS/HR 20 STRESS-FT 21 NOSTRS/CY 22 STRESS-ST 23 FCG-COEFF 24 FCG-EXPNT 25 FCG-THOLD 26 LIMIT-DSL 27 LIMIT-PBS 28 STRESS-DL 29 FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7 DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+Ol 3.3000D-02 6.1872D+OO 5.0000D+OO 6.0000D+OO l.OOOOD-04 5.0000D+OO l.OOOOD+Ol 5.0000D-03 -2.4000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 6.0634D+OO 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO 1.0000D+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 6.1872D-02 5.0000D+OO l.3612D+01 l.2017D-11 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol 3.0936D+Ol

1. OOOOD-03 NTRIAL =

NUMISI = NUMFMD = DEVIATION OR FACTOR

1. 5000D- 01 9.9000D-04 l.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.0500D+OO 1.SOOOD-02 1.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO l.4125D+OO SHIFT MV/SD

.00 .00 .00

1. 00 1.00

1. 00

.00 .00 .00 .00 .00

1. 00

-1. 00

1. 00 5000 5

4 USAGE NO. SUB. 1 SET 2 SET 3 SET 4 SET 5 SET 6 SET 1 ISI 2 ISI 3 ISI 4 ISI 5 ISI 1 SSC 2 SSC 3 SSC 4 SSC 5 SSC 6 SSC 7 SSC 1 TRC 2 TRC 3 TRC 4 TRC 5 'TRC 6 TRC 7 TRC 1 FMD 2 FMD 3 FMD 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK END OF CYCLE

1. 0 40.0 NUMBER FAILED=

34 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL l.05945D-08 O.OOOOOD+OO l.05945D-08 1.05945D-08 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS= 1.05945D-08 O.OOOOOD+OO

1. 81093D- 09 1.05945D-08 1.05945D-08 1.81093D-09

,... WESTINGHOUSE STRUC~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT (SRRA) PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

======----------============-==========----========---=============

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 3£ CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE NOVARS = NUMSSC = VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 PIPE-DIA WALL/DIA SRESIDUAL INT%DEPTH L/D-RATIO PROB/VOL FIRST-ISI FREQ-ISI EPST-PND ASTAR-PND ANUU-PND HOURS/CY PRESSURE STRESS-SS SCC-COEFF SCC-EXPNT SCC-TIMEI ECW-RATE NOFTRS/HR STRE.SS-FT NOSTRS/CY STRESS-ST FCG-COEFF FCG-EXPNT FCG-THOLD LIMIT-DSL LIMIT-PBS STRESS-DL FREQ-DLTR 40 29 7 DISTRIBUTION TYPE LOG NORMAL NO NORMAL NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL

NO NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT -

- CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NORMAL YES NORMAL YES CONSTANT - CONSTANT - CONSTANT - NORMAL NO NORMAL YES CONSTANT - NFAILS = NUMSET = NUMTRC = 1000 6 7 MEDIAN VALUE 3.0000D+OO 8.6000D-:02 6.1872D+OO 1.7000D+Ol 6.0000D+OO 1.0000D-04 5.0000D+OO

1. OOOOD+Ol 5.0000D-03

-3.2000D-01 3.0000D+OO 7.4473D+03 7.0000D-01 1.9304D+Ol 3.5900D-13 2.1610D+OO 1.0000D+OO 1.2740D-07 6.0000D+Ol 4.9497D+OO

1. 3000D+Ol

1. 3612D+Ol 1.2017D-11 3.7000D+OO 3.5000D+OO O.OOOOD+OO 6.1872D+Ol 1.3921D+Ol 1.0000D-03 NTRIAL =

NUMISI = NUMFMD = DEVIATION OR FACTOR 1.5000D-02 2.5800D-03 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.0500D+OO 1.5000D-02 1.2589D+OO 2.3714D+OO 2.3714D+OO 1.4125D+OO 1.2589D+OO 2.8508D+OO 3.2000D+OO 1.4125D+OO SHIFT MV/SD .00 .00 .00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 1.00

1. 00

-1.00 1.00 5000 5 4 USAGE NO. SUB 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2

3.

4 5 6 7 1 2 3

4 SET SET SET SET SET SET ISI ISI ISI ISI ISI SSC SSC SSC SSC SSC SSC SSC.

TRC TRC TRC TRC TRC TRC TRC FMD FMD FMD FMD PROBABILITIES **OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK NUMBER FAILED= 731 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 END OF FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE

INSPECTION CYCLE FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL

1. 0 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 5.77248D-13 2.0 5.46153D-13 1.12340D-12 5.46153D-13 1.12340D-12 3.0 1.39346D-12 2.51686D-12 1.39346D-12 2.51686D-12 4.0 2. 3 7.3 7 lD - 11 2.62540D-11 2.37371D-ll 2.62540D-ll 5.0 1.19330D-11 3.81869D-11 1.19330D-11 3.81869D-ll 6.0 5.62425D-12 4.38112D-11 2.81250D-14 3.82151D-11 7.0 1.48387D-ll 5.86499D-11 7.42042D-14 3.82893D-ll 8.0 1.01710D-ll 6.88210D-11

5.23467D-14 3.83416D-ll 9.0 2.96670D-ll 9.84879D-il 2.85058D-13 3.86267D-ll 10.0 6.25578D-11 1.61046D-10 2.16573D-11 6.02840D-ll

11. 0 1.78412D-11

1. 78887D-10 5.82779D-12 6.61118D-ll

3.16543D-109 7.12.D-11 , 1*2 ~ 0 4.95430D-10 1.37399D-10 13.0

1. 62990D-11 5.11729D-10

1. 91481D-12 1.39314D-10 1.45539D-11 14.0 5.26283D-10 2.13603D-12 1.41450D-10 15.0 l.61537D-11 5.42437D-10 8.92237D-12 1.50372D-10 16.0 2.40733D-10 7.83170D-10 5.97122D-13 1.50969D-10 17.0 7.25721D-12 7.90427D-10 l.17482D-14 1.50981D-10 18.0 6.79336D-11 8.58360D-10 2.51834D-13 1.51233D-10 19.0 3.70697D-ll

-8.95430D-10 1.39477D-13 1.51373D-10 20.0 6.94872D-ll 9.64917D-10 1.36212D-13 1.51509D-10

21. 0 3.93729D-ll l.00429D-09 9.19925D-14 l.51601D-10 22.0 3.77725D-ll

1. 04206D-09 1.59810D-13 1.51761D-10 23.0 7.43169D-12 l.04949D-09

1. 98743D-14

1. 51780D-10 24.0 7.29545D-12 l.05679D-09 5.62441D-14 l.51837D-10 25.0 2.70088D-ll

1. 08380D-09 4.99322D-13 l.52336D-10 2 6. ci l.53961D-ll

1. 09919D-09

1. 45080D-15

1. 5 2 3 3 7D - 10 27.0 l.63852D-ll 1.11558D-09 9.84884D-16 1.52338D-10 28.0 l.42895D-ll l.12987D-09 l.17533D-15 l.52340D-10 29.0 4.66282D-ll

l. l 7650D-09 l.19120D-14 l.52352D-10 30.0 7.06984D-10 l.88348D-09 2.62670D-12

1. 54978D-10

31. 0 l.11649D-10 l.99513D-09 9.95682D-14 l.55078D-10 32.0 2.03857D-ll 2.01552D-09 2.34920D-13 l.55313D-10 33.0 4.2587-lD-ll 2.05810D-Q9 7.35489D-14 1.55386D-10 34.0 2.62944D-10 2.32105D-09 2.34860D-13

1. 55621D-10 35.0 2.33644D-12 2.32338D-09 4.30508D-16

1. 55622D-10 36.0 1.76054D-12 2.32514D-09 3.12480D-17

1. 55622D-10 37.0 1.01221D-ll 2.33527D-09 6.89680D-16 1.55622D-10 3"8. 0 1.05803D-ll 2.34585D-09

1. 06711D-16 1.55622D-10 39.0 1.82876D-11 2.36413D-09 6.82076D-15 l.55629D-10 40.0 1.76575D-ll 2.38179D-09 8.69247D-15 1.55638D-10 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS=

8.14079D-ll 2.24135D-11

STRUC~ RELIABILITY AND RISK.ESSMENT v (SRRA) ' WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM SPFMPROF ESBU-NTD

=====----------=====================-==============-=====-=========

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4B CARBON STEEL PIPE WELD FULL BREAK NCYCLE = 40 NFAILS = 1000 NTRIAL = 5000 NOVARS = 29 NUMSET = 6 NUMISI = 5 NUMSSC = 7 NUMTRC = 7 NUMFMD = 4 VARIABLE DISTRIBUTION MEDIAN DEVIATION SHIFT USAGE NO. NAME TYPE LOG VALUE OR FACTOR MV/SD NO. SUB 1 PIPE-DIA NORMAL NO 3.0000D+OO

1. 5000D-02

.00 1 SET 2 WALL/DIA NORMAL NO 8.6000D-02 2.5800D-03 .00 2 SET 3 SRESIDUAL NORMAL YES 6.1872D+OO 1.4125D+OO .00 3 SET 4 INT%DEPTH NORMAL YES 1.7000D+Ol 1.4125D+OO

1. 00 4

SET 5 L/D-RATIO NORMAL YES 6.0000D+OO 1.4125D+OO

1. 00 5

SET 6 PROB/VOL - CONSTANT - 1.. OOOOD- 04 6 SET 7 FIRST-ISI CONSTANT - 5.0000D+OO 1 ISI 8 FREQ-ISI CONSTANT - 1.0000D+Ol 2 ISI 9 EPST--PND CONSTANT - 5.0000D-03 3 ISI 10 ASTAR-PND - CONSTANT -3.2000D-01 4 ISI 11 ANUU-PND - CONSTANT - 3.0000D+OO 5 ISI 12 HOURS/CY NORMAL YES 7.4473D+03 1.0SOOD+OO 1.00 1 SSC 13 PRESSURE NORMAL NO 7.0000D-01 1.SOOOD-02 .00 2 SSC 14 STRESS-SS NORMAL YES 1.9304D+Ol 1.2589D+OO .00 3 SSC 15 SCC-COEFF NORMAL YES 3.5900D-13 2.3714D+OO .00 4 SSC 16 SCC-EXPNT - CONSTANT - 2.1610D+OO 5 SSC 17 SCC-TIMEI. - CONSTANT - 1.0000D+OO 6 SSC 18 ECW-RATE NORMAL YES 1.2740D-07 2.3714D+OO .00 7 SSC 19 NOFTRS/HR - CONSTANT - 6.0000D+Ol 1 TRC 20 STRESS-FT NORMAL YES 4.9497D+OO 1.4125D+OO .00 2 TRC 21 NOSTRS/CY - CONSTANT - 1.3000D+Ol 3 TRC 22 STRESS-ST NORMAL YES 1.3612D+Ol 1.2589D+OO 1.00 4 TRC 23 FCG-COEFF NORMAL YES 1.2017D-11 2.8508D+OO 1.00 5 TRC 24 FCG-EXPNT - CONSTANT - 3.7000D+OO 6 TRC 25 FCG-THOLD - CONSTANT - 3.SOOOD+OO 7 TRC 26 LIMIT-DSL - CONSTANT - O.OOOOD+OO 1 FMD 27 LIMIT-PBS NORMAL NO 6.1872D+Ol 3.2000D+OO -1.00 2 FMD 28 STRESS-DL NORMAL YES 3.0936D+Ol

1. 4125D+OO 1.00 3

FMD 29 FREQ-OLTR - CONSTANT - 1.0000D-03 4 FMD PROBABILITIES OF FAILURE MODE: EXCEED FLOW STRESS LIMIT FOR FULL BREAK NUMBER FAILED= 895 NUMBER OF TRIALS= 5000 END OF FAILURE PROBABILITY WITHOUT AND WITH IN-SERVICE INSPECTION CYCLE FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL FOR PERIOD CUM. TOTAL

1. 0 4.47561D-10 4. 4 7 5 6 lD - 1 o*

4.47561D-10 4.47561D-10 2.0 6.86783D-13 4.48248D-10 6.86783D-13 4.48248D-10 3.0 2.46801D-12 4.50716D-10 2.46801D-12 4.50716D-10 4.0

1. 94_851D-ll 4.70201D-10

1. 94851D-ll 4.70201D-10 5.0 1.05012D-ll 4.80702D-10 1.05012D-11 4.80702D-10 6.0

1. 83739D-11 4.99076D-10 2.04669D-13 4.80907D-10 7.0 2.60510D-12 5.01681D-10 1.30273D-14 4.80920D-10 8.0 1.09514D-11 5.12633D-10 8.74708D-14 4.81007D-10 9.0 2.78818D-11 5.40514D-10 1.43068D-13 4.81150D-10 10.0 7.91984D-11 6.19713D-10 3.32974D-ll 5.14448D-10

11. 0

1. 62607D-- 10 7.82320D-10 1.68764D-11 5.31324D-10

~

1. 69234D 5. 94,5D-ll

t2. 0 9.51554D-10 5.90778D-10 13.0 l.17406D-11 9.63295D-10 2.55402D-12 5.93332:0-10 14.0 1.33203D-11 9.76615D-10 1.62328D-12 5.94955D-10 15.0 8.98691D-12 9.85602D-10 3.85801D-12 5.98813D-10 16.0 2.43235D-10 1.22884D-09 6.07509D-13 5.99421D-10 17.0 6.20159D-ll

1. 29085D- 09 2.40810D-13 5.99661D-10 18.0 2.64508D-11 1.31730D-09 7.95832D-14 5.99741D-10 19.0 3.01800D-11

-1.34748D-09 7.07725D-14 5.99812D-10 20.0 7.92535D-11

1. 42674D- 09 1.60809D-13 5.99973D-10

21. 0 5_.14865D-ll 1.4;7822D-09 1.81338D-13 6.00154D-10 22.0 5.62889D-12 1.48385D-09 9.87365D-15 6.00164D-10 23.0 1.12821D-11

1. 49513D- 09 3.62679D-13 6.00526D-10 24.0 1.37413D-11 1.50888D-09 4.31181D-13 6.00958D-10 25.0 l.55013D-ll l.52438D-09 5.23241D-13 6.01481D-10 26.0 3.39481D-ll l.55833D-09 l.04944D-14 6.01491D-10 27.0 4.65625D-ll l.60489D-09

1. 49792D-15 6.01493D-10 28.0 1.83716D-11 l.62326D-09 l.39206D-14 6.01507D-10 29.0 7.26815D-10 2.35007D-09 2.63238D-12 6.04139D-10 30.0 8.91303D-ll 2.43920D-09 5.75170D-14 6.04197D-10

31. 0 1.08618D-ll 2.45007D-09 2.17091D-13 6.04414D-10 32.0 1.73167D-ll 2.46738D-09 2.78304D-13 6.04692D-10 33.0 2.47435D-10 2.71482D-Q9 l.28615D-13 6.04821D-10 34.0 3.37694D-12 2.71819D-09 1.13 717D-15 6.04822D-10 35.0 2.69967D-12 2.72089D-09 5.42121D-15 6.04827D-10 36.0 2.12089D-ll 2.74210D-09 4.16823D-16 6.04828D-10 37.0 2.59440D-11 2.76805D-09 2.43594D-15 6.04830D-10 38.0

1. 76900D-11 2.78574D-09 6.55586D-15 6.04837D-10 39.0 8.85263D-12 2.79459D-09 1.12634D-15 6.04838D-10 40.0 2.39260D-11 2.81852D-09 2.79960D-14 6.04866D-10 DEVIATION ON CUMULATIVE TOTALS=

8.53737D-11 4.28022D-ll

l PB FAILURE PROB SEGMENT ID I I 1.57E*06 l RC-012 1.57E*06 l RC*010 1.57E-06 l RC-011 1.01E-06 l RC-008 1.01E-06 l RC-007 1.01E-06 l RC-009 8.70E-07 l RC-019 7.30E-07 l ECC-000 7.01E-07 l CC-007 7.01E-07 l CC-008 5.50E-07 l RH-002 5.46E-07 I LHI-001 SEGMENT DESCRIPTION l From RCP 1-RC-P-1C to 1-RC-MOV-1595 l From RCP 1-RC-P-1A to 1-RC-MOV-1591 l From RCP 1-RC-P-1B to 1-RC-MOV-1593 l From steam generator 1-RC-E-1B to RCP 1-RC-P-1B l from steam generator 1-RC-E-1A to RCP 1-RC-P-1A l From steam generator 1-RC-E-1C to RCP 1-RC-P-1C l From Loop 3 hot leg to pressurizer l from RWST to CV 1-SI-410 (to CVCS) to CV 1-SI-46B CLP!) and CV 1-SI-46A (LP!) PB FAILURE MECHANISM l fatigue I Fatigue I fatigue I fatigue I Fatigue I fatigue . I Thermal Fatigue I Stress corrosion crackin~ l Discharge header from CCW pumps 1A and 1B from the pumps upto CCW HEX common header I Fatique l Discharge header from CCW pumps 1D and 1C from the pumps upto CCW HEX common header I Fatique I RHR suction isolation valves, 1-RH-HOV-1700 to 1-RH-MOV-1701 I Stress corrosion cracking, l from CV 1-SI-46B to CV 1-SI-47 (from sump) to CV 1-SI-50 (pump discharge) I Stress corrosion cracking

J--------------------------------------------

1 5.46E-07 I LHI-002 I from CV 1-SI-46A to CV 1-SI-56 (from sump) to CV 1-SI-58 (pump discharge) I Stress corrosion cracking I 5.16E-07 l RC-015

5. 16E-07 l RC-013 5.16E-07 l RC-014 4.44E-07 l RS-005 4.28E-07 I RS-001 4.28E-07 I RS-002 4.01E-07 I RH-003 l From Loop 3 1-RC-MOV-1595 to reactor vessel I from Loop 1 1-RC-MOV-1591 to reactor vessel I from Loop 2 1-RC-MOV-1593 to reactor vessel I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Pipe section 12 11-RS-24-153, cross connecting supply headers of ORS 2B and 2A pumps I Stress corrosion cracking I 12"-RS-8-153 header from Containment sump to Containment penetration I 12"-RS-7-153 header from Containment sump to Containment penetration I RHR suction isolation valve, 1-RH-HOV-1701 through both pumps and both heat I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking,

~.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3.88E-07 I CH-029 3.59E-07 I AFW-011 3.59E-07 I AFW-010 3.59E-07 I AFW-007 2.90E-07 l LHI-008 I Letdown path between 1-CH-RV-1203, 3x4 Reducer between CH and RC designated headers I Fatique, Stress corrosion I From manual valves 236 and 140, 237 and 155, and 239 and 170 and HOV 260B to check I Corrosion assisted fatigue I From manual valves 235 and 141, 238 and 156, and 240 and 171 and HOV 260A to check I Corrosion assisted fatigue l From check valve 142 to manual valves 235, 141, 236, and 140 and check valve 628 I Corrosion Train A CV SI-58 to HP! suction SI-MOV-1863A, RWST reclrc CV SI-61, Hot Leg inject l Stress corrosion cracking e

2.37E-07 I CH-025 2.15E-07 I CH-021 1.74E-07 I AFW-020 1.74E-07 I AFW-022 I Letdown path between 1-CH-LCV-1460B, 3x2 Reducer before Regen. HEX. I Normal charging path between Regen. HEX (1-CH-E-3), 1-CH-HCV-1310A, 1-CH-HCV-1311 l From check valve 27 and 10 to SG1A I From check valve 89 and 72 to SG1C l Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracki'ng I Corrosion assisted fatigue l l Corrosion assisted fatigue l 1.74E-07 l AFW-021 l From check valve 58 and 41 to SG1B l Corrosion assisted fatigue l 1.73E-07 l CS-004 1.64E-07 l CS-003 1.38E-07 l CH-028B 1.38E-07 l CH-030A 1.38E-07 l CH-030B 1.38E-07 l AFW-004 1.38E-07 l AFW-006* 1.38E-07 l AFW-005 l RWST flow to Containment Spray pump 1A from 1-CS-MOV-100A to normally closed manual l Stress corrosion cracking l RWST flow to Containment Spray pump 1B.from 1-CS-MOV-1008 to normally closed manual l Stress corrosion cracking l Letdown path between 1-CH-TV-1204A containment l Letdown path between containment, 1-CH-TV-12048 l Letdown path beyween 1-CH-TV-1204B, Non-Regen HEX I From manual valve 153 and manual valves 283 and 154 and check valve 144 through I From manual valve 183 and manual valves 285 and 184 and check valve 174 through l From manual valve 168 and manual valves 284 and 169 and check valve 159 through l Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion crackin~- l Stress corrosion cracking I Corrosion assisted fatigue I l Corrosion assisted fatigue I l Corrosion assisted fatigue I 1.37E-07 l AFW-012 1.37E-07 l AFW-008 1.37E-07 l AFW-009 1.26E-07 I CH-009 1.26E-07 I CH-008 1.26E-07 l CH-010 7.66E-08 I CC-005 7.66E-08 l CC-006 7.66E-08 l CC-003 7.66E-08 l CC-004 7.03E-08 l ECC-004 6.28E-08 l RS-003A 6.28E-08 I RS-004A l From check valves 628, 629, and 630 to manual valve 631 on full flow recirc Line l From check valve 157 to manual valves 238, 156, 237, and 155 and check valve 629 l From check valve 172 to manual valves 240, 171, 239, and 170 and check valve 630 I To RCP seals between pllllp case for 1-RCP-P-18 check valve 1-CH-334 l To RCP seals between punp case for 1-RCP-P-1A check valve 1-CH-324 l To RCP seals between pump case for 1-RCP-P-1C check valve 1-CH-350 l Supply header to 1-CC-P-1D from manual valve 1-CC-566 to the pump l Supply header to 1-CC-P-1C from manual valve 1-CC-575 to the pllllp l Supply header to 1-CC-P-1A from manual valve 1-CC-554 to the punp l Supply header to 1-CC-P-18 from manual valve 1.-cc-560 to the pump I Hot leg LP! CV 1-SI-228 and CV 1-SI-229 and HP! 1-Sl-226 and SI-227 to CV Sl-239, l From Containment penetration up to 1-RS-MOV-1558 l From Containment penetration up to 1-RS-MOV-155A I Corrosion assisted fatigue l Corrosion assisted fatigue l l Corrosion assisted fatigue l l Stress corrosion cracking, l Stress corrosion cracking, I Stress corrosion cracking, I Fatigue l Fatigue l Fatigue_ l Fatigue I Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking

I ,1 5.48E-08 I CH-018 4.85E-08 I B0-001 4.85E-08 I BD-004 4.85E-08 I B0-007 I Normal charging path between 1-CH-MOV-1289B, 1-CH-MOV-1289A I 1-RC-E-1A to 1-B0-TV-100A I 1-RC-E-1B to 1-B0-TV-100C I 1-RC-E-1C to 1-BO-TV-100E I Stress corrosion cracking I Vibration, Wastage I Vibration, Wastage I Wastage, Vibration 3.98E-08 I RH-009 I Stress corrosion cracking l RHR supply to*C hot leg from 1-RH-MOV-17208 to 12"-RC-24-1502 3.98E-08 I RH-008 3.78E-08 I AFW-001 3.76E-08 I AFW-025 3.76E-08 I AFW-024 3.75E-08 I RH-003A 3.42E-08 I CH-032 3.42E-08 I CH-033 l RHR supply to B hot leg from 1-RH-MOV-1720A to 1211-RC-23-1502 I Stress corrosion cracking I From Emergency Condensate Storage Tank to manual valve 153 on turbine driven PlJlll> . I Corrosion assisted fatigue I I From manual valve 277 to manual valves 279 and 293 I From manual valves 280 to manual valves 282 and 294 I 211-RH-3-602 header from the intersection of the header with 1211-RH-12-602 to I Letdown path between 1-CH-PCV 1145, 1'-CH-164 (Normally closed manual valve), I Letdown path between 1-CH-TCV-1143, 1-CH-478 (Check valve) I Corrosion assisted fatigue I I Corrosion assisted fatigpe I I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking, I Stress corrosion cracking, I 3.35E-08 I CH-034

Letdown path between 1-CH-478 (Check valve), Mixed bed Oeminerlizer (1A) 1-CH-68, I Stress corrosion cracking I

L--------------------------------------------

3.35E-08 I CH-031 3.17E-08 I CH-020 l Letdown path between Non-Regen HEX, 1-CH-PCV-1145, 1-CH-164 (Normally closed manual

Stress corrosion cracking I Normal charging path between contairvnent Regen. HEX (1-CH-E-3)

I Stress corrosion cracking 3.0BE-08 l CH-019 2.81E-08 *I CS-009 2.81E-08 I CS-007 2.81E~08 I CS-008 2.46E-08 I RC-020 2.36E-08 I VS-002 2.36E-08 I RC-041 2.35E-08 I RC-042 2.35E-08 I RC-043 2.34E-08 I RC-018 1.99E-08 I AFW-003 I Normal charging path between 1-CH-MOV-1289A containment I cs flow to spray nozzles between check valve 1-CS-127 and 1-CS-105 I Flow to spray nozzles from penetration seal to check valve 1-CS-127 I Flow to spray nozzles from penetration seal to check valve 1-CS-105 I From Loop 1 hot leg to 1-RH-MOV-1700 I The remaining piping associated wi.th the 1-VS-E-4A/8/C/0/E chillers between I SI from CV 1-Sl-79 to Loop 1 cold leg I SI from CV 1-Sl-82 to Loop 2 cold leg I SI from CV 1-SJ-85 to Loop 3 cold leg I SI from CV 1-SI-94 to RCS Loop 3 hot leg l Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking I Fatigue I Vibration I Thermal Fatigue I Thermal Fatigue I Thermal Fatigue I Thermal Fatigue From Emergency Condensate Storage Tank to manual valve 183 on motor driven plllll P-3B I Corrosion assisted fatigue ) (..

1.99E-08 I AFY-002 1.98E-08 i AFY-026 1.98E-08 i AFY-023 1.91E-08 i RH-010 i From Emergency Condensate Storage Tank to manual valve 168 on motor driven pum P-3A i Corrosion assisted fatigue i From emergency makeup tank to manual valves 277 and 280 i From manual valves 279 and 282 to manual valves 283, 284, and 285 i Recirculation Line 1 1/2"-RH-11-602 i Corrosion assisted fatigue I Corrosion assisted fatigue I Stress corrosion cracking 1.75E-08 i CH-011 i Seal injection path, between 1-CH-324 containment

Fatique, Stress corrosion 1.75E-08 I CH-013 1.75E-08 I CH-037 1.75E-08 i CH-012 1.70E-08 I CH-002 1.66E-08 l RC-017 1.66E-08 l RC-016 1.47E-08 l RS-010 I Seal injection path, between 1-CH-350 containment l Lines connecting Deborating Deminerlizers to the letdown path (drawing l Seal injection path, between 1-CH-334 contairvnent l Piping used for CVT level measurement and indication l SI from CV_ 1-Sl-88 to RCS Loop 2 hot Leg l SI from CV 1-Sl-91 to RCS Loop 1 hot leg l From containment penetration to spray nozzles for path A i Fatique, Stress corrosion l Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking, l Stress corrosion crackin~

l Thermal Fatigue l Thermal Fatigue l Stress corrosion cracking l 1.27E-08 i CC-042 i CCY for Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. cooler 1-VS-E-2A from Containment l Vibration

J--------------------------------------------

1.27E-08 l CC-043 1.27E-08 i CC-044 1.27E-08 l CC-033 l CCY for Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. cooler 1-VS-E-2B from Containment

CCY for Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. cooler 1-VS-E-2C from Containment l CCY for the 1C RCP from the Unit 1 containment penetration 1-PEN-PN-16 to:

i Vibration

Vibration I Vibration

~----------------------------- ------------- -.----

1.27E-08 l CC-030 I CCY for the 1B RCP from the Unit 1 containment penetration 1-PEN-PN-17 to: l Vibration

~~~~~:~~-!-~~:~~~------- l_ccw_ for_ the_ 1A_RcP_ from_Unit_ 1_containment_penetration_ 1-PEN-PN-18_ to:_ 1-PEN-PN-25 ___ !_~~~~~~~~~--------------------

1.17E-08 l CH-016 l Alternate "charging" path between 1-CH-FCV-1160 containment l Stress corrosion cracking

~--

1.17E-08 l CH-017 1.17E-08 l CH-040 I Alternate "charging" path between containment, 1-RC-P-HCV-1556A/B/C l All other piping to VCT l Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking 1.09E-08 i RS-009 9.79E-09 l RH-003B 7.52E-09 l AFW-027 7.21E-09 l CH-038 7.21E-09 l CH-039 I From containment penetration to spray nozzles for path B I 611-RH-14-602 header from the intersection of the header with 12"-RH-12-602 to l From fire main manual valve 185 to manual valves 154, 169 and 184 and check valves l Boric Acid supply line between 1-CH-MOV-1350, 1-CH-84, 1-CH-88 All other Boric Acid supply lines l Stress corrosion cracking l Stress corrosion cracking l Corrosion assisted fatigue i Stress corrosion cracking, l Stress corrosion cracking, I J e

6.94E*09 I CH-028A 6.71E-09 I CH-027 6.30E-09 l RC-024 6.30E-09 I RC-025 6.30E-09 l RC-026 5.98E-09 I CH-003 5.83E-09 l CH-022 5.46E-09 l CH-006 5.28E-09 I CH-024 5.28E-09 l CH-026 4.91E-09 l CH-007 3.BSE-09 l BD-008A 3.85E-09 I BD-002A 3.72E-09 I AFW-032 3.72E-09 I AFW-030 3.72E-09 I AFW-031 3.47E-09 l RC-045 3.47E-09 I RC-044 3.47E-09 l RC-051 2.76E-09 I RC-004 2.76E-09 I RC-006 2.76E-09 I RC-005 2.38E-09 I RH-011 2.31E-09 I CH-023 2.18E-09 l CH-036 I Letdown path.between 3x2 Reducer on the discharger of side of the Regen. HEX, l Letdown path between Regen. HEX and 3x2 Reducer on the discharger of side of the l From tee on 8"-RC-11-2501R to Loop 1 cold leg I From tee on 8"-RC-12-2501R to Loop 2 cold leg l From tee on 8"-RC-13-2501R to Loop 3 cold leg l Discharge of CVT between 1-CH-MOV-1115C, 1-CH-MOV-1115E l Normal charging path between 1-CH-HCV-1310A, 1-CH-312 (check valve) l To charging punp suction from RCP seals between Containment, 1-CH-HCV-1303A, l Letdown path between 1-CH-LCV-1460A, 1-CH-LCV-14608 I Letdown path between 3x2 Reducer before Regen. HEX, Regen. HEX I To charging punp suction from RCP seals between, 1-CH-HCV-1303A, 1-CH-HCV-1303B, I containment isolation valve 1-BD-TV-100E to Containment penetration 40 I Containment isolation valve 1-BD-TV-100A to Containment penetration 39 I From Check valve 174 and 179 to manual valves 176 and 607 I From Check valve 144 arid 149 to manual valves 146 and 609. I From Check valve 159 and 164 to manual valves 161 and 608 I Pressurizer spray from Loop 3 cold leg*to 1-RC-PCV-1455B I Pressurizer spray from Loop 1 cold leg to 1-RC-PCV-1455A I Pressurizer spray header from 1-RC-PCV-1455A&B to pressurizer l rrom 1-RC-MOV-1590 to steam generator 1-RC-E-1A l From 1-RC-MOV-1594 to steam generator 1-RC-E-1C I From 1-RC-MOV-1592 to steam generator 1-RC-E-1B l Containment pentration 24 between 1-RH-29 and 1-RH-100 I Normal charging path between 1-CH-HCV-1311, 1-CH-313 (check valve) l Letdown path between 1-CH-HCV-1244, VCT, 1-CH-FCV-11148 l Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking, I Stress corrosion cracking I Vibration, Stress corrosion l l Vibration, Wastage I Vibration, Wastage l Vibration I Vibration l Vibration I Stress corrosion cracking, l Stress corrosion cracking, I Stress corrosion cracking, l Fatigue l Fatigue l Fatigue l Stress corrosion cracking, l Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion cracking e

2.13E-09 i CH-001 2.01E-09 I CH-005 2.01E-09 i CH-004 1.93E-09 i CC-040 1.?SE-09 I ACC-011 1.?SE-09 I ACC-001 1.?SE-09 I ACC-006. 1.65E-09 I CH-035A 1.65E-09 l CH-0358 1.21E-09 i FC-006 9.0?E-10 i CH-014 8.48E-10 i CC-039 I Discharge of VCT between 1-CH-MOV-1115C at flow reducer after manual valve 1-CH-203, I Stress corrosion.cracking

To charging pumps suction from RCP seals between Containment and 1-Cll-MOV 1381 i Discharge of CVT between, 1-CH-MOV-1115E, 1-CH-230 (Check valve), 1-CH-MOV-1373, I CCW to Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. cooler from the intersection of I 1-SI-TK-1C to 1-Sl-147, Loop 3 cold leg.

I 1-SI-TK-1A to 1-SI-109, Loop 1 cold leg. I 1-SI-TK-18 to 1-Sl-130, Loop 2 cold leg. I Letdown path between Mixed bed Deminerlizer 1A, 1-CH-24 (Normally closed manual I Stress corrosion cracking I Stress corrosion*cracking I Snubber failure to lock up I Snubber failure to lock up I I Snubber failure to lock up I I Snubber failure to lock up I I Stress corrosion cracking I Mixed bed Deminerlizer 1-CH-1-18 line for letdown path from 1-CH-24 (manual closed I Stress corrosion crackinp I Purification headers from the intersection of 16"-FP-18-152 with 2.5 11 -FP-26-152 to I Vibration I Seal injection path, between containnent 1-CH-HCV-1186, normally clos1!d 1-CH-278 I CCW to 1-RH-P-18 seal cooler between the following normally closed manual valves

Stress corrosion cracking I Vibration 8.48E-10 I CC-038 I CCW to 1-RH-P-1A seal cooler between the following normally closed manual valves I Vibration I

~--------------------------------------------

8.48E-10 I CC-055 I Discharge path of CCW to lnstrl.lllent Air Compressor HEXs from HEXs to the I Fatique I 8.48E-10 I CC-054 7.22E-10 I FC-004 7.22E-10 I FC-003 7.22E-10 I FC-001 7.22E-10 I FC-005 6.44E-10 I CH-015 4.47E-10 I ACC-004 4.47E-10 I ACC-015 4.47E-10 I ACC-014

4.47E-10 I ACC-010 4.47E-10 I ACC-009 4.47E-10 I ACC-005 I CCW to lnstrl.lllent Air Compressor HEXs from the intersection of 1.5"-CC-501-151 with I Fatique I 1-FC-P-1A discharge header from 1-FC-11 (check valve) to spent fuel pit, 1-FC-41 l Vibration I 1-FC-P-18 header from 1-FC-35 (normal Ly closed man. valve) to 1-FC-9 (check valve)

I Vibration I 1-FC-P-1A header from Spent Fuel Pit to 1-FC-11 (check valve) I 1-FC-P-18 discharge header from 1-FC-9 (check valve) back to 1-FC-41 (normally I Normal seal cooling path, between 1-CH-MOV-1370, 1-CH-HCV-1186 i 111-Sl-100-602 from 1-SI-TK-1A to 1-SI-HCV-1853A and the line from 1-Sl**TK-1A to I 111-Sl-61-602 from 1"-SI-TK-1C to 1-SI-HCV-1851C 1 1"-SI-99-602 from 1-SI-TK-1C to 1-SI-HCV-1853C and the line from 1-SI-TK-1C to I I 111-Sl-12-602 from 111 -SI-TK-18 to 1-SI-HCV-18518 I 1"-SI-97-602 from 1-SI-TK-18 to 1-Sl-HCV-18538 and the line from 1-SI-TK-18 to 111-~l-11-602 from 111-Sl-TK-18 to 1-SI-HCV-1851A l Vibration I Vibration l Stress corrosion cracking I Fatique I Fatique l Fatique I Fatique l Fatique I Fatique ' I

3.18E-10 \\ RC-039 3.18E-10 I RC-038 3.18E-10 I RC-032 3.18E-10 I RC-037 I Loop 3 fill header from 1-RC-HCV-1556C to cold leg I Loop 2 fill header from 1-RC-HCV-15568 to cold leg I Loop 2 drain line from cold leg to 1-RC-HCV-15578 I Loop 1 fill header from 1-RC-HCV-1556A to cold leg I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue 3.18E-10 I RC-040 I Letdown line from Loop 1 cold leg to 1-CH-L~V-1460A I Fatigue 3.18E-10 \\ RC-033 3.18E-10 \\ RC-031 2.62E-10 \\ EE-5-1A,8, 2.46E-10 I CS-012 I Loop 3 drain line from cold leg to 1-RC-HCV-1557C I Loop 1 drain line from cold leg to 1-RC-HCV-1557A I 500 gal. tanks to base tanks. I Flow from Refueling Water Chemical Addition Tank I Fatigue I Fatigue . I Fatique I Vibration 1.83E-10 I CC-013 1.83E-10 I CC-0168 1.83E-10 I CC-012 1.83E-10 \\ CC-016A I Discharge header of 1C and 1D CCW HEXs from the body of HEXs to: normally closed I Snubber failure to lock up I I Supply Line to RHR HEX A from containment to normally closed manual vc1lve 1-CC-178 I Snubber failure to lock up I l Discharge header of 1A and 18 CCW HEXs from the body of HEXs to: norm~Lly closed I Snubber failure to Lock up I I Supply Line to RHR HEX A from the intersection of 24"-CC-235-121 and 1811-CC-8-121 to I Snubber failure to Lock up I 1.83E-10 I CC-014 1.72E-10 \\ RC-001 1.72E-10 I RC-002 1.72E-10 I RC-003 1.69E-10 \\ AFW-014 1.69E-10 \\ AFW-015 1.69E-10 \\ AFW-016 1.69E-10 I AFW-013 I Crosstie piping for the outlet of CCW HEXs between manual valves: 1-CC-558 (normally I Snubber failure to lock up I I Reactor vessel to Loop 1 isolation valve 1-RC-MOV-1590 I Reactor vessel to Loop 2 isolation valve 1-RC-MOV-1592 I Reactor vessel to Loop 3 isolation valve 1-RC-MOV-1594 I From check valve 133 to check valve 131 I From check valve 136 and check valve 309 to MOVs 151E, 151C and 151A I From check valve 131 and check valve 310 to MOVs 151F, 151D, and 1518 I From check valve 138 to check valve 136 I No postulated fai-Lure I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I Snubber overload, fatigue I Snubber overload, fatigue I Snubber overload, fatigue I Snubber overload, fatigue 1.31E-10 I RC-030 6.68E-11 \\ RC-057 6.68E-11 \\ RC-058 6.68E-11 I RC-059 5.08E-11 I AFW-019 I RCS drain header from valves 1-RC-11, 1-RC-HCV-1557A, 1-RC-50, 1-RC-HCV-15578, I From pressurizer to PORV block valves 1-RC-MOV-1535 and 1-RC-MOV-1536 I From block valve 1-RC-MOV-1535 to PORV 1-RC-PCV-1456 \\ From block valve 1-RC-MOV-1536 to PORV 1-RC-PCV-1455C FrO!II MOVs 1518 and 151A to check valve 89 I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Overload e

5.0BE-11 I AF\\.1-018 5.0BE-11 I AF\\.1-017 3.69E-11 I RC-060 3.48E-11 I RC-028 I From MOVs 151D and 151c to check valve 58 I From MOVs 151F and 151E to check valve 27 l From tee on 411 -RC-15-1502 to bl ind flange Cline 1 1/211-RC-105-1502) I Loop 2 drain line from hot leg to valve 1-RC-50 I Overload I Overload I Fatigue l Fatigue 3.48E-11 I RC-029 I Loop 3 drain line from hot leg to valve 1-RC-82 I Fatigue I I 3.48E-11 l RC-027 3.12E-11 I RC-056 2.77E-11 I RC-023 2.77E-11 I RC-021 l Loop 1 drain line from hot leg to valve 1-RC-11 I From pressurizer safety valves 1-RC-SV~1551A,8,C and PORVs 1-RC-PCV-1456 and* I From Loop 3 isolation valve 1-RC-MOV-1594 to 1-RC-MOV-1595 l From Loop 1 isolation valve 1-RC-MOV-1590 to 1-RC-MOV-1591 I Fatigue I Fatigue l No postulated failure l No postulated failure 2.77E-11 I RC-022 1.97E-11 I LHl-006 1.97E-11 I LHl-005

1. 97E-11 I LHl-004 I From Loop 2 isolation valve 1-RC-MOV-1592 to 1-RC-MOV-1593 l Containment SlJll1) MDV 1860A to CV Sl-57 I Contairvnent suip MDV 18608 to CV Sl-47 l Contairvnent suip to HOV 1860A I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I No postulated failure l No postulated failure

*-~--------------------------------------------

1.97E-11 I LHl-003 1.92E-11 l LHl-010 1.91E-11 l CS-002 1.91E-11 I CS-001 1.90E-11 I CC-037 1.32E-11 I RC-046 1.32E-11 I RC-047 1.32E-11 l RC-048 1.19E-11 I LHl-009 1.13E-11 I CS-006 1.13E-11 I CS-005 9.01E-12 I LHl-007 7.83E-12 I RS-011 l Contairvnent suip to MDV 18608 l Cold leg injection from SJ-MOV-1890C to CV Sl-241, SI-242, and Sl-243 I R\\.IST flow to cs puip 1A from Tank to: 1-CS-MOV-100A I R\\.IST flow to CS puip 18 from Tank to: 1-CS-MOV-1008 I CC\\.I to Excess Letdown HEX, Primary Drain Cooler, RHR puips seal coolers and other I Accunulator injection from CV 1-Sl-109 to Loop 1 cold leg I Accunulator injection from CV 1-Sl-130 to Loop 2 cold leg I Accunulator injection from CV 1-Sl-147 to Loop 3 cold leg I Cold leg inject from SI-MOV-1864A and SI-MOV-18648 to Sl-MOV-1890C I R\\.IST flow to Contairvnent Spray puip 1A from 1-CS-MOV-101A (normal Ly clc,sed), I R\\.IST flow to Contairvnent Spray pump 18 from: 1-CS-MOV-101C (normally closed), I No postulated failure I Snubber failure to lock up I pitting I pitting l Snubber failure to lock up I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I Fatique I Fatique I Train 8 CV Sl-50 to HP! suction Sl-MOV-18638, R\\.IST recirc CV SI-53, Hot leg inject I Snubber failure to lock up I

I All IRS-related piping sections from contairvnent suip to the nozzles (path 8) (Does I No postulated failure

7.83E*12 I RS-012 6.75E-12 I RS-004B 6.75E-12 I RS-003B 6.SOE-12 I ACC-013 6.SOE-12 I ACC-002 6.SOE-12 I ACC-007 6.SOE-12 I ACC-012 6.SOE-12 I ACC-003 6.SOE-12 I ACC-008 I All IRS-related piping sections from containment SI.Jll1) to the nozzles (path B) (Does I No postulated failure I From 1-RS-MOV-155A to Containment penetration and manual valve 1-RS-15 I From 1-RS-MOV-155B to Containment penetration and manual valve 1-RS-6 I 2" level taps from 1-SI-TK-1C to reducer in the lines to 1-SI-LT-1928 and I 2"-Sl-63-602 from 12"-SI-45-1502 to 1-SI-103, 1-S1-HCV-1852A and 1-S1*1~4 I 2"-SI-65-602 from 12"-Sl-23-1502 to 1-SI-125, 1-SI-HCV-18528 and 1-SI-123 I 2"-SI-67-602 from 12"-SI-24-1502 to 1-SI-142, 1-S1-HCV-1852C and 1-Sl-140 I 2" level taps from 1-SI-TK-1A to reducer in the lines to 1-SI -L T-1920 end I 211 level taps from 1-SI-TK-18 to reducer in the lines to 1-SI-LT-19~!4 and I Vibration I Vibration I Fatique I Fatique I Fatique I Fatique I Fatique I Fatique I 4.67E-12 I CC-009 4.67E-12 I CC-002 4.67E-12 I CC-010 4.67E-12 I CC-023 4.67E-12 I CC-017 4.67E-12 I CC-0228 4.67E-12 I CC-011 4.67E-12 I CC-018A 4.67E-12 I CC-0188 4.67E-12 I CC-019 4.67E-12 I CC-021 4.67E-12 I CC-022A 4.67E-12 I CC-020A 4.62E-12 I FC-002 I Discharge header of CCW pllllps between normally closed manual valves: 1-CC-573, I CCW pllTips supply header from intersection point with the following pipes: I No postulated failure I Fatigue I Inlet piping to CCW HEXs 1A and 18 from intersection point with 1811-CC-227-121 and I No postulated failure I RHR 18 HEX discharge piping from 1-CC-TV-1098 to CCW pllllps supply header upto the I RHR 1A supply and discharge piping from normally closed manual valve 'I-CC-178 to I RHR 18 HEX discharge piping from Unit 1 contairvnent penetration to 1-C:C-TV-1098 I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Inlet piping to CCW HEXs 1C and 1D from intersection point with 18"-CC-229-121 and I No postulated failure I RHR 1A HEX discharge piping from normally closed 1-CC-181 to Unit 1 containment I RHR 1A HEX discharge piping* from Unit 1 contairvnent penetration to 1-CC-TV-109A I RHR 1A HEX discharge piping from 1-CC-TV-109A to CCW pllllps supply header upto the I RHR 18 supply and discharge piping from normally closed manual valve 1-CC-182 to I RHR 18 HEX discharge piping from normally closed 1-CC-185 to Unit 1 containment I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I CCW supply line to RHR 18 HEX from intersection of 24 11-CC-235-121 and 'iB"-CC-10-121 I No postulated failure I 1-FC-P-18 header from Spent Fuel Pit to 1-FC-35 (normally closed man. valve) I Fatique 4.24E-12 I RC-055 3.92E-12 I RC-061 I From safety valve loop seals to pressurizer I Aux.iliary pressurizer spray line from CV 1-CH-313 to tee on 4' line I Fatigue I Fatigue ,\\_, \\ A...

3.34E*12 I CC-035 2.59E-12 I CC-015B 2.59E-12 I CC-015A 2.04E-12 I CC-034 2.04E-12 I CC-024 2.04E-12 I CC-026 2.04E-12 I CC-027 2.04E-12 I CC-031 I CCW to the Unit 1 Fuel Pit Coolers, Non Regen. HEX and Seal Water HE)( from the I CCW discharge header to Misc. Boron Evaporator components from 1-BR-TCV-111B, I CCW discharge header to Misc. Boron Evaporator co""onents from intersection of I CCW pipe on the 1-RC-P-1C discharge path from the containment penetration I CCW to 1A and 1B RCPs from intersection of 10"-CC-89-121 pipe with 18"-~C-10-121 I CCW pipe on the 1-RC-P-1A discharge path from the containment penetration l CCW pipe on the 1A/1B/1C RCP discharge path from 1-CC-TV-105A/B/C to the I CCW pipe on the 1-RC-P-1B. discharge path from the containment penetration I Fatique I Failure of_ nonseismic line l Failure of nonsiesmic line I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I No postulated failure l No postulated failure l No postulated failure 2.04E-12 l CC-032 I CCW to the Unit 1 1C RCPs from intersection of 1011-CC-81-121 pipe with 18"-CC-10-121 I No postulated failure 1.70E-12 I ECC-001 1.70E-12 I ECC-002 1.70E-12 I ECC-003 I Cold leg loop 1 from CV 1-Sl-241 and CV 1-Sl-235 to CV 1-Sl-79 I Cold leg Loop 2 from CV 1-Sl-242 and CV 1-SJ-236 to CV 1-Sl-82 I Cold leg loop 3 from CV 1-Sl-243 and CV 1-SJ-237 to CV 1-Sl-85 I Thermal Fatigue I Thermal Fatigue I Thermal Fatigue I 1.65E-12 I ECC-005 I Hot leg loop 1 CV SJ-239 to CV Sl-91 I Thermal Fatigue I 1.65E-12 I ECC-007 I Hot leg loop 3 CV Sl-240 to CV Sl-94 I Thermal Fatigue 1.65E-12 I ECC-006 1.51E-12 l AFW-028 1.49E-12 I RC-053 1.49E-12 I RC-054 1.49E-12 I RC-052 1.46E-12 I RC-049 1.23E-12 I cc-053 I Hot leg loop 2 CV SI-238 to CV Sl-88 I From MOVs 160A and 160B to check valves 309 and 310 (from opposite unit aux feed I Pressurizer to safety valve 1-RC-SV-1551B I Pressurizer to safety valve 1-RC-SV-1551C I Pressurizer to safety valve 1-RC-SV-1551A l Charging from CV 1-CH-430 to Loop 2 cold Leg I Discharge of CCW for Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. coolers and neutron I Thermal Fatigue I Corrosion assisted fatigue \\ l Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I Fatigue I No postulated failure 1.23E-12 I CC-056

1. 16E-12 I CS-016 8.22E-13 I LHJ-018 7.37E-13 I CS-014 7.37E-13 I CS-013

.1 CCW for Misc. Boron Stripper subcomponents from the intersection of 8"-CC-32-151 I Nonsiesmic portion failing I The remaining portions of the RWST cooling unit piping not covered in segment 1CS-11 I No postulated failure I From 1-SJ-MOV-1863A to 1-CH-MOV-1267B, 1-CH-MOV-1269B, and 1-CH-MOV127013 I Flow from CS piping to the containment Sl.lllp (2.5"-CS-94-153) I Flo.w from CS piping to the containment slSllp (2.5"-CS-95-153) I Vibration I No postulated failure I No postulated failure .~, e

6.62E-13 I AFW-029 6.62E-13 I CC-041 6.62E-13 I CC-052 I From Manual valve 150 from conedensate makeup and manual valve 631 and manual valve I Corrosion assisted fatigue I CCW for Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. cooler from 1-CC-TV-101A to: Unit 1 I Discharge of CCW for Unit 1 reactor containment air recirc. coolers and neutron I Overload I Fatique I 6.60E-13 I CC-001A I From CCW Surge Tank to CCW pumps supply header up to the following intersection I Fatigue I

+-------------------------------------------

6.19E-13 I CS-010 I CS flow test lines between normally closed manual valves 1-CS-8/15 and ~nual, I No postulated failure 6.19E-13 I CS-011 4.91E-13 I BD-0088 4.91E-13 I BD-005B I cs flow test lines between normally closed manual valves 1-CS-18 and the RWST tank. I No postulated failure I Contairvnent penetration 40 between 1-BO-TV-100E and 1-BD-TV-100F I Containment penetration 41 to and 1-BD-TV-100D I Wastage I Wastage 4.91E-13 I BD-009 I Everything beyond the outside containment isolation valve 1-BD-TV-100~ I Wastage 4.91E-13 I BD-003 4.91E-13 I BD-006 4.91E-13 I BD-0028 3.64E-13 I RC-035 I Everything beyond the outside containment isolation valve 1-BD-TV-10011 I Everything beyond the outside containment isolation valve 1-BD-TV-100[1 I Containment penetration 39 to Containment isolation valve 1-BD-TV-100E: I Loop 2 cold leg 3 11 capped line I Wastage I Wastage I Wastage I Fatigue 3.64E-13 I RC-036 3.64E-13 I RC-034 3.51E-13 I FC-009 3.51E-13 I FC-008 1.57E-13 I RS-007 1.57E-13 I RS-008 1.35E-13 I EE-001 1.21E-13 I EE-6-1A,B, 1.21E-13 I EE-007-1, 1.00E-13 I EE-003 1.00E-13 l EE-002 9.27E-14 I LHl-011 I Loop 3 cold leg 311 capped line I Loop 1 cold leg 311 capped line I Header from 1-FC-1-1 C Fuel Pit Ion Exchanger) normat"l y clo.sed man. valves 1-FC-1, I Fatigue I Fatigue I No postulated failure I Header from 1-FC-1-1 (Fuel Pit Ion Exchanger) to 1-FC-2 (normally clos1!d man. vlv.) I No postulated failure I Pipe section between normally closed manual valve 1-RS-6 and ORS Sllllp I Pipe.section between normally closed manual valve 1-RS-15 and ORS Sllllp I 5,000 barrel tank to 20,000 gal. tank including recirc. I Base tank to injector header, 'A' pllllp motor driven (secondary source), 'B' pllllp I Injector header I 20,000 gal. tank, 1-EE-TK-2B, to stand by fuel pllllps to 500 gal. tanks I No postulated failure I No postulated failure I Wastage I Vibration I Vibration I Wastage I 20,000 gal. tank, 1-EE-TK-2A, to valve 1-EE-1, the ready fuel pllllps and the 500 gal I Wastage I Hot leg MOV 18908 to CV 228 I No postulated failure 9.27E-14 I LHI-012 Hot.leg MOV 1890A to CV 229 I No postulated failure

8.94E-14 l CS-015 4.37E-14 I EE-004 2.02E-14 l VS-001 1.97E-14 l CC-001B 1.97E-14 l CC-001C 2.02E-15 l LHl-013 2.02E-15 I LHl-014 2.02E-15 l LHl-016 I Flow from RWST to the closed valve 1-CS-27 l Cross connect between 1-EE-TK-1A and 1B, bypass for underground tanks. l Makeup supply from check valve 1-VS-975 to 1-VS-PCV-533 l Assorted of 211 and 1.5" diameter connected to the CCI./ surge tank l From unit 1 and 2 SG blowdown coolers and Condensate system from check ~alve l Recirc to RI./ST from Train B from. CV SJ-53 to SI-MOV-1885B l Recirc to RI./ST from Train A from CV Sl-61 to S1*MOV-1885A l Recirc to RI./ST from Train A from S1-MOV-1885A to SI-MOV-1885D l No postulated failure l Wastage l No postulated failure l Fatigue I Fatigue I No postulated failure l No postulated failure I No postulat~d failure 2.02E-15 l LHl-015 l Recirc to RI./ST from Train B from SI-MOV-1885B to S1-MOV-1885C l No postulated failure

t ____ _

2.02E-15 l LHl-017 2.00E-15 l FC-007 5.0SE-16 l RC-050 6.0?E-17 l CC-028B 6.0?E-17 l CC-020C 6.07E-17 l CC-029 6.07E-17 l CC-036 4.51E-17 l CC-028A 1.96E-17 I CC-045 1.96E-17 I CC-046 l Recirc to RWST from Trains A and B from S1-MOV-1885C and Sl-MOV-1885D to RI./ST l No postulated failure l Header from 1-FC-1-1 (Fuel Pit Ion Exchanger) to 1-FC-3 (normally closed man. vlv_) I No postulated failure l Reactor vessel head vent from vessel to 1-RC-S0V-100A1 and 1-RC-SOV-100B1 l Fatigue l CCI./ pipe on the Unit 1 RCPs thermal barrier discharge paths from 1-CC-TV-140A to the I No postulated failure I CCI./ for pipe penetration cooling coils from the intersection of 18"-CC-10-121 with l No postulated failure l CCI./ pipe on the Unit 1 RCPs thermal barrier discharge paths from the Unit 1 I No postulated failure l CCI./ to Misc. component from the intersection of 3"-CC-39-151 with 14"-CC-67-121 to I No postulated failure I CCI./ pipe on the discharge of Unit 1 RCPs from 1-CC-TV-120A/B/C (RCP 1A/1B/1C I CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler (1-NS-E-1A) from the intersection of l CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler 1-NS-E-1A from 1-CC-FCV-112A to 1-CC-112B, l No post~lated failure I Fatique l Fatique

~---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~--

1.96E-17 l CC-047 1.96E-17 I CC-048 I CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler 1-NS-E-1A from normally closed man. vlv I Fatique l Discharge of CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler 1-NS-E-1A from 1-CC-FCV-112B to l Fatique 1.96E-17 I CC-049 1.96E-17 I CC-051 1.96E-17 I CC-050 l CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler 1-NS-E-18 from normally closed man. vlv l No postulated failure I CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler 1-NS-E-1B from normally closed 1-CC-FCV-113B I Fatique I CCI./ for the neutron shield tank cooler 1-NS-E-1B from normally closed 1-CC-FCV-113A l Fatique}}

ML18151A657

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