ML14304A703
| ML14304A703 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 09/10/2013 |
| From: | Ecology & Environment, State of NY, Dept of Public Service |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, State of NY, Public Service Commission |
| Shared Package | |
| ML14304A441 | List: |
| References | |
| F-2012-1028 | |
| Download: ML14304A703 (60) | |
Text
The Role of Micrognds Microgrids, or neighborhood-scale networks of shared DG resources, have the potential to provide both resiliency benefits and reduce emissions, but have very few precedents in New York City. After Hurricane Sandy, while lower Manhattan was without power, a cluster of New York University buildings was powered by a 6 MW cogeneration sys-tem serving the campus.
At Hudson Yards, the development team of Related Companies and Oxford Properties Group are planning a large 12 MW cogeneration plant, which will generate power at twice the efficiency of a conventional natural gas power plant and enable "functional occupancy" of its retail, restaurant and office complex during even an extended grid outage.
The complex Is thermally connected to the developments' other 3 residential and office buildings to enable the dis-tribution of thermal energy from the cogeneration plant throughout the mixed use neighborhood and the exchange of hot and chilled water so that the development's 5 individual building plants can be operated like a single plant for optimum energy and operational efficiency as well as maximum capacity and resiliency.
Microgrids that connect multiple customers are a promising new concept that could be applied elsewhere In the city, offering an opportunity to innovate alternative power generation and delivery models while accelerating adoption of smart grid technologies that are key to modernizing the electric grid. The City has several projects underway to study the implementation of microgrids, working closely with New York State, the Pace Energy and Climate Center, the New York State Smart Grid Consortium, and Con Edison to evaluate optimal technologies and business models for ml-crogrids. This collaborative is currently analyzing the feasibility of a microgrid cluster In East Harlem that would serve both the Metropolitan Hospital and the Washington and Lexington NYCHA facilities, and possibly others.
The City is also evaluating distributed power options for the Hunts Point Food Distribution Center in the Bronx, a critical location for the city's food supply. Ensuring continuous power will limit supply chain disruptions by enabling uninter-rupted facility operation and the maintenance of refrigerated storage capacity Inthe Meat, Fish, and Produce Markets.
These options include cogeneration and trigeneration systems (generating electricity, heating, and cooling), the pro-curement and installation of backup generators, and the protection or elevation of existing utility infrastructure.
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Trasporttio Overview In a city of endless destinations, New Yorkers are always on the improvements in recent years Biofuels and electric vehicles offer move. Subways run round the dock, stetching from Rockaway great potential for reducing emissions, but demand growth for Beach to Van Cortlandt Park. Federal and state highways are over- these new technologies is very gradual. Individuals do not con-laid on a dense grid of busy local streets. A neddace of new ferry sider the health and economic impacts of traffic congestion-n terminals and bike paths adorn the "tyswaterfront Bustling in- do they have a price signal to do so-whenthey decide o drive. -
ternational airports connect the city tD every major destination in nally, the City has only limited ability to influence the transportation the wordd system, which numerous other entities, public and private, play a role inoperating With the exception of walking and biking, all of this movement re-quires energy-and 99 percent ofthis eneryoriginates from fos- City govemment and its partners nevertheless have tools that can sil fuels. All told, the citys transportation system is responsible for be used to accelerate carbon reductions and put the city onto a 11 million tons of emissions every year, or 20 percent of the city's lwer-carbon pathway. The City is already using some of these total emissions. On a per capita basis, this compares well to other tools to advance the goals of PlaNYC and can expand these efforts.
cities. Still, the potential exists to reduce transportation emissions Zoring and land use planning can encourage density and mixed-further. More New Yorkers, particularly the newest arrivals, could use development in parts of the city that are most accessible to live in dense, mixed-use, tranitsl:h neighbrhoods; new trans- transit. The City can work with the State to improve mass transit portation options like bus rapid transit and bicydcing could reduce service, including expanding the Select Bus Service program that is the need for driving,and, most sign*tficandy, vehicles on the streets now saving all five boroughs. The City can expand efforts to make could be far deaner. steets safer for walking and biking. And itcan foster deaner trans-portation technologies like electric vehicles and biodiesel through Several major challenges will make it difticult to reduce emissions pilots, purchasing inthe City fleet, and early infrastructure develcp inthe transportation sector. Parts of the city are simply out of reach ment. These efforts will not only help to reduce carbon, but also of mass transit, leaving residents with few options other than to improve quality of life, clean the air, and make the economy more drive. City steets are often bettersuited for cars and unwelcoming competitive.
to pedesians and bicyclists-although the City has made major SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Trasprtaio Transportation Fundamentals The city's transportation system is a dazzling mix of activity, city in millions of daily combinations. The bus system offers and New Yorkers place upon it high demands for service and three types of service: regular local service, express service reliability. From the city's extensive network of mass tran- between boroughs, and Select Bus Service-a form of bus sit--rail, subways, buses, and ferries-to its crisscrossing rapid transit that operates at greater speeds thanks to dedi-streetscapes that accommodate cars, bikes and pedestrians cated lanes, fewer stops, and off-board fare collection. The moving in every direction. Daily commuters, business trav- City has over 300 miles of bike lanes and recently launched elers and tourists are also growing in record numbers and the nation's largest bike-share system, Citi Bike, covering accentuate demand on the transportation system. In fact, Manhattan below 59th Street and some parts of Brooklyn.
on Thursday, October 24, 2013, New York City's subways hit an all-time high for ridership, just shy of 6 million rides in a The subway and rail systems do not offer the range or flex-single day. ibility of roadways because they operate along fixed tracks to a finite number of destinations, but their strength lie in The city's on-road transportation system touches every cor- their scope and capacity. The city's subways carry more than ner of the five boroughs and allows for the greatest flexibility 1.7 billion riders each year along 21 interconnected routes in travel. Over 13 thousand taxis, 6 thousand buses, hundreds that span 660 miles and connect 468 stations across the five of thousands of bikes, and more than two million private cars boroughs. Subways are synonymous with density: 42 per-and trucks move on more than 6,000 miles of streets, nearly cent of the city's landmass is within a 10-minute walk to a 800 bridges, and through 9 tunnels, connecting points in the subway stop, and these areas are home to 75 percent of the I %Transportation change (adjustedUsage for population 2000-ZO1Z growth)
Patterns, 251 9/11 Financial Crisis 20 +17%
Public transit 15 10 Airplanes 5 +2%
Driving 0*~ _r __T_ Commuter rail
-5
-10
-15 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: MTA,PANYNJ, NYMTC, NYCMayor's Office
Built Density and Distance to Subway Population density per acre in thousands
-<15
- 15-75 75, - o5,150 150,- 350
- 350+
Subway
/ Stations FJ 1/2 Mile Buffer from Subway Station 0
I T ansprtaio city's built area and 72 percent of its population. (See chart: bridges. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, a New Built Density and Distance to Subway) York State agency, runs the city's subways, buses, and re-gional rail. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, a Marine transport used to be extremely important as well, public authority, manages some of the city's largest bridges, mainly for delivering goods into the city - as recently as most of its tunnels, and the region's airports. Private com-the 1970s, the waterfront bustled with commercial activity panies operate taxis and livery cars under the supervision as ocean going vessels and local barges exchanged their of the City's Taxi and Limousine Commission. And private wares. Containerized shipping caused much of this activity companies operate most of the city's ferry terminals and to disband throughout the region and the transport of goods port infrastructure, with some public support. Funding for shifted to truck. Recently, however, there has been a resur- the transportation system comes from a mix of sources, few gence of marine deliveries with, for example, the opening of of which the City directly controls.
Red Hook Container Terminal; efforts are also underway to improve the connectivity of marine terminals and the freight During the past decade, the city's population increased by rail network. The waterfront has also seen a recent renais- nearly 300,000 people. Over the same time period, transit sance in passenger transportation as ferry lines and termi- ridership grew by 17 percent over this period, while driving nals have sprung up across the city, including the East River only went up 2 percent and commuter rail stayed nearly flat.
Ferry Service, which launched in2011 and has exceeded rid- (See chart: Transportation Usage Patterns, 2000-2012) In ership expectations. response to increasing demand, major investments are be-ing made to improve the city's mass transit infrastructure:
Farther into the surrounding region, Port Authority's PATH two new subway lines are being built on the Upper East Side trains go to New Jersey, Metropolitan Transportation Author- and in Midtown West; a new terminal for PATH trains is rising ity's Long Island and Metro-North railroads connect to towns up next to the new World Trade Center building; tunnels for as far as Montauk and New Haven, and Amtrak's service car- East Side Access, one of the largest public works projects ries passengers up and down the Eastern seaboard, most in decades, are under construction and will ultimately save importantly to Boston and Washington, D.C. For longer dis- commuters nearly one quarter of a billion hours a week.
tance trips, airplanes shuttle more than 54 million passen- Several other new transportation options were launched in gers a year out of the area's three major airports. 2013, including the bike share program, Citi Bike, and lime-colored Boro Taxis that are authorized to pick up passengers Multiple agencies own and operate different parts of the anywhere in the city except airports and Manhattan south of transportation system. The New York City Department of West 110th and East 96th Street.
Transportation manages the city's streets and many of its
I~~~6 Trnprtto Sources of GHG Emissions The transportation system is responsible for 20 percent of the city's total emissions - 10.9 million tons in 2011. Of that I MtCO Transportation e Emissions amount, passenger cars account for 70 percent while trucks and public transit make up the remainder. Aviation, which is not counted as part of the city's greenhouse gas baseline .Subway & Commuter Rail or its 30% reduction goal, amounts to another 15.0 million tons. Without aviation, the city's per capita emissions from transportation are roughly 6.4 tons per year; by comparison, a single round-trip flight to London creates 1.2 tons of emis-sions (See chart: TransportationEmissions) Trucks heavy Emissions per capita vary by borough. Residents of Staten Island and Queens drive more than those who live in Brook- Light Trucks lyn and Manhattan - but still far less in the rest of the U.S.,
with an average American producing roughly five times the driving emissions of an average New Yorker. (See chart: Per Capita Emissionsfrom Driving)
Emissions fell nearly 5% since 2005, when they stood at 11.5 million tons - even as the city's population grew. Most of the Passenger Cars decline was due to less carbon intensive electricity for mass transit; lower per capita VMT; and improved vehicle fuel Source: NYCMayor's Office economy. (See chart: Drivers of Change to Transportation Emissions, 2005-2012) 0 SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Ie Trns r a I Metric Per Capita tons COGHG Emissions e per year, 2011 from Driving Bronxj 0.9 Brooklyn -0.7 Manhattan -0.7 Queens 1.3 Staten Island 1.7 NYC Average -0.9 . -1
, '- 80%
U.S. Average 4.6 Source: NYCMayor's Office I Metric Driverstonsof COe Change to Transportation Emissions, 2005-2012 12.5 -
12.0 11.66 l -0.02- 1O.092u ......
11.5 -0.01-11.0
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11.12 10.5 10.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 Population On-road On-road Per capita Per capita More Per capita 2012 emissions growth vehicle fuel vehicle fuel VMT transit efficient solid waste emissions economy- economy- usage electricity export passenger heavy trucks generation cars and for transit light trucks Source: NYMTC; UCBerkeley, NYCMayor's Office
Technica of As %of total ZO(
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I Tra spotto Emissions Abatement Potential Maintaining the City's Density Ferry service Ferries have enjoyed remarkable success in New York City Steering growth towards dense, diverse, walkable in recent years. Use of the new East River Ferry, for ex-neighborhoods ample, more than doubled initial estimates within a year The city's density is one of its greatest assets. Many New of its launch in June 2011. There is potential to add more Yorkers simply do not need to travel as far as most other ferry service and connect new points along the water-Americans, whether because their friends live up the front-which could help to foster density, improve travel block or because the pharmacy is around the corner - experiences, and make it possible to live in parts of the and when they do, they can typically take mass transit. city that were previously less attractive because of their Over the past decade, over 94 percent of new building distance from mass transit. But new ferries are not likely permits filed with the city were for construction located to have a significant effect on reducing New Yorker's driv-within 36 mile of transit. Continuing to encourage transit- ing or carbon emission and so they were not quantified accessible density as the city grows will help make sure as part of the 80X50 reduction plan.
that emissions remain low for new arrivals and existing residents alike. Commuter trains Commuter trains are extremely important for the region, Expanding Mass Transit as millions of commuters use Metro North, Long Island Subway service Railroad, and New Jersey Transit to get into New York City on a typical workday. The train lines have shaped settle-Subways make the city's density possible. The system's ment patterns in the NYC metropolitan area, and they reach is extensive-72 percent of the city's population have so effectively displaced driving that only 16 percent lives within a half-mile walk of a subway station. Two ex-of workers commute to Manhattan's central business pansion projects are also underway. The Second Avenue district by car. New commuter lines are not in the works Subway will connect 96th Street to 63rd Street in the first currently, but service will improve once the East Side Ac-phase and stretch all the way to Financial District at Ha-cess project-one of the region's largest public works nover Square in later phases, while the 7 line extension projects in decades-allows travelers from Long Island to will go west along 42nd Street and then down 11th Ave-arrive into Grand Central Terminal instead of Penn Station nue to 34th Street. Carbon abatement is not these lines' if so desired. Construction of additional lines or expan-primary function and therefore they are not quantified as sion and improvement of existing ones would have simi-part of the 80 by 50 reduction strategy. The Second Av-lar effects: better access to the city and better service enue Subway will relieve congestion on the 41516 line and for existing commuters. For the purposes of this report make living farther east on the Upper East Side easier for however, the direct emissions potential of any additional existing residents and more attractive for new ones. The lines was not estimated.
7 line extension will support impending large-scale de-velopment in Hudson Yards that would not be possible otherwise. Nevertheless, creating additional lines and connections over the coming decades could encourage mode shifting and densification in areas that are poorly covered by subways.
I~ ~ Trnprtto I I Shifting to Less Energy-Intensive Forms of The carbon emissions impact of higher cycling rates is Transport difficult to estimate because of limited data about mode-shifting potential, but it is certainly positive. Bikes do not Bus rapid transit reduce emissions when new riders switch from subways, A BRT line can cost 50 times less than a new buses, or walking, but they do reduce emissions when subway line and take months instead of de- they replace rides in taxis or private cars. Carbon abate-cades to build. It is also faster than convention- ment potential of bikes is highest in areas that rely on al buses. The city's Select Bus Service, which cars, whereas in dense areas the expansion of biking and uses dedicated lanes and off-board fare collec- 0.4 associated infrastructure is likely to bring about more tion, and is now located in all five boroughs, of- convenience, health benefits, and traffic safety improve-fers a 20 percent speed advantage compared ments than carbon emissions reductions. A detailed siz-to convention lines. Introducing additional ing of the carbon reduction potential of biking is beyond Select Bus Service routes throughout the city $n/aI would have two effects: first, it would save I NYC Population Bike Usage Status time for passengers who were riding the same %of total population, 2012 routes on regular buses, which would have no effect on Afew times carbon emissions, and second, it would encourage those a year At least once who were previously driving to switch to the bus instead, a month which would reduce emissions. The exact cause-and-ef-fect abatement potential from expanding SBS coverage Several times is difficult to estimate, but, as an example, increasing a month the share of trips taken on Select Bus Service to 7 per-cent - in line with what Ottawa and Bogota achieved with large-scale implementations of their respective systems
- would reduce emissions by 0.4 MtCO 2e compared to the business as usual case. Because of the uncertainty in the range of possible reductions attributable to SBS, the 78%
Never or cost per ton of carbon abated was not quantified. physically unable Bicycling Source: NYCDOHMH Community Health Survey Of all the car trips in New York City, 10 percent are under half-mile, 22 percent are less than 1 mile and 56 percent are less than 3 miles - dis-I Thousands NYC DOT Commuter Cycling Indicator tances that could be readily served by bicycle.
In recent years, cycling in New York City has 0.5 40 grown much more popular than it used to be: ,
22 percent of New Yorkers ride a bike at least L7IJ a few times a year, and NYC DOT's Commuter 30 Cycling Indicator grew 2.5 times since 2000 - -$300 though the share of New Yorkers who use bi- LIIJ cycles for their daily commutes is still relatively low, at 1 percent. (See charts: NYC PopulationBike Usage Status and NYC DOT Commuter Cycling Indicator) 10 I Percentage sector wide reduction bAmount of COze abated 0~
'Cost to abate carbon 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: NYCDOT SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Traspotaio the scope of this report, but for the sake of illustration, Adopting Cleaner Vehicles and Fuels if New Yorkers' share of trips taken by bike increased to 15 percent (which Berlin achieves and Copenhagen far No matter how good the city's transit system is, or how exceeds with its record 33 percent) and just half of those dense and mixed-use its neighborhoods, some trips will trips displaced car travel-carbon emissions would fall by still require cars. Moving two tons of metal through 0.5 MtCO2e. space will always require a lot of energy, and reducing the emissions from this movement comes down to three options: switching to different vehicle technologies (hy-Regional trains and buses brid electric and battery electric, for now), making con-Of the four options for traveling along the ventional vehicles more efficient, and using biofuels. (See Eastern Seaboard - driving, taking a bus, tak- %n/a chart: Vehicles on Road by PowertrainTechnology) ing a train, or flying - driving and flying are by far the most carbon intensive. Reliable data is Battery electric vehicles not available for the exact number of bus or Imillion Battery electric vehicles (EVs), which rely on car travelers between New York and Boston tons and Washington, D.C., but the share of train a large battery pack for all (or nearly all) of travel has risen from 37 percent to 75 per- their energy and need to plug into the grid to cent between Washington, D.C. and New York recharge, emit 70% less carbon per mile trav-from 2000 to 2011, and from 20 percent to 54 eled than conventional vehicles do. Over time, percent between New York and Boston in the conventional and electric vehicles alike will be-same period. The share could be higher yet: in countries come cleaner (due, in large part, to strict CAFE tons where true high-speed rail took off - Spain and China are standards), but the EV advantage will persist, two examples - regional trains and buses have become especially as the grid becomes cleaner. (See so popular that airlines have largely stopped serving chart: Carbon Intensity of Battery Electric and routes under 300 miles. From an emissions standpoint, Conventional Vehicles) shifting all existing passengers on routes to Boston and Washington DC from planes to trains would lead to emis- Electric vehicles could play an extremely important role sions savings of at least 0.1 MtCO2e. Cleaning up the in carbon abatement, but all across the country, they still grid in line with the 80 by 50 pathway would increase this represent a tiny share of new purchases. Even in San potential to 0.29 MtCO2e. 14 As with subway expansions, Francisco, they amounted to only 0.9 percent of new reg-high-speed trains are not primarily about carbon emis- istrations between 2010 and 2012; in New York City, the sions abatement; therefore, the direct cost per ton of car- share was lower yet at 0.2 percent. (See chart: Electric bon abatement was not calculated. Vehicle Share of New Auto Sales by Location)
Today's electric vehicles are far superior to prior incar-nations that were plagued by limited range, charging challenges and high cost. Today's vehicles have sufficient range for daily driving, charging is simpler and more op-tions are available, and prices are falling. In 1995, GM's EV1 - the first electric vehicle sold to consumers by a major automaker - was almost twice as expensive as an average vehicle, but today's Nissan Leaf, costs essentially the same as an average car after accounting for federal tax credits. (See chart: Electric Vehicle Price Dynamics)
Technology will improve further yet, and if, as modeled, battery electric vehicles represent 2 percent of all vehi-cles by 2020, 8 percent by 2030, and 41 percent by 2050, they could abate 0.1, 0.4, and 1.6 MtCO 2e, respectively.
The societal cost of abatement would come in at $80/ton
I Tra Isportaio 7 in 2020 (not taking tax credits into account, EVs would still be more expensive than conventional vehicles), then drop to -$1 0/ton in 2030 as EV prices drop.
I Co2e Carbon Intensity (lbs/mile): of Battery NYC-specific grid Electric intensity and alongConventional 80 by 50 pathway Vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 0.70 l Internal Combustion Engine Electric Vehicle Today's plug-in hybrids can only rely on their ii 0.60 batteries for between 7 and 35 miles. Once 2.5%
the battery is depleted, a small gasoline en- 0.50 gine engages to extend the vehicle's range (to 340 miles in the case of one such vehicle, the 1.6 0.40 Chevy Volt). Plug-in hybrids are not as benefi-cial as battery-only EVs, but they are nearly as 0.30 good, especially for in-city driving. And com-pared to EVs, they do not induce range anxiety - 0.20 or require as robust a charging network, and because of their smaller batteries they cost 0.10 less. As modeled, PHEVs could account for 6 percent of all vehicles on the road by 2020, 11 percent by 2030, and 0.00 47 percent by 2050, abating 0.3, 0.5, and 1.6 MtCO2e, 2013 2020 2025 respectively. The cost of abatement would be $90/ton in 2020 and -$10/ton in 2030 as vehicle prices continue to Source: US EPA, NYCMayor;s Office drop.
I Vehicles on Road by Powertrain Technology I EV Share of New Auto Sales by Location; 2010-2012
%of total vehicle stock (Millions) Battery EVand PHEV as %of total registrations; total registrations in thousands 467 1,489 678 1.112 2.qqq 2010 l I 1.96 100.0% .,-100%
93 MM 99.5%
2U9 99.0%
2030 WdI11 2.21 MM 2.0%
1.5%
2050 47 1.0%
I NMM 229 0.5%
LDVplug-in hybrid (PHEV) 0 HO* a LOVhybrid 0.0%
MDVO M LDVadvanced powertrain San Los Boston Chicago New 0 LOWbattery electric (BEV) LDVstandard powertrain Francisco Angeles York City
'L.0Wd*b vdeh Source: NYCMayor's Office Source: Polk Automotive SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
IS Traspr for additional emissions reductions from conventional I MSRP Electric Vehicle Price in thousands Dynamics (all values indexed to CPI inflation of 2011) vehicles, whether through more aggressive vehicle stan-dards in the future or through accelerated upgrading to
- Eli erage Vehicle vehicles that meet the standards that are in force today.
$70 -- Av By 2020, accelerated uptake of more efficient vehicles
- General Motors
$80 EV 1 Tesla could abate up to 0.7 MtCO2e; by 2030 and 2050, tighter Model S standards and accelerated switching could abate 0.6-0.7
- Toyota MtCO2e. Because the incremental costs of cleaner vehi-5u CD KAv 4 Chevrolet cles pay off through fuel savings, the range of abatement VOLT costs would be between -$170/ton and -$150/ton.
$40 Nissa an LEAF Alternative bus powertrains
$30-
- In recent years, MTA has upgraded portions of
-* its 6,000-unit bus fleet to cleaner-burning die- 0.2%
$20 SMART sel, compressed natural gas, and hybrid elec-Electric Drive tric units. There is a balance to be struck in the
$10 upgrade process: hybrid vehicles may be the 0.2 cleanest of the three, but they also cost more
$0 . . .. . . . . .
.............. to purchase and maintain, and the incremental
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 'o8 10 '12 '14 money may be better directed - at least in the short term - to replacing old diesel vehicles in -$230 Source: US DOE; Transportation Department, NYC their fleet with more cleaner models. A cleaner L.1I.to mix of buses featuring predominantly hybrids Conventional hybrid vehicles has the potential to abate approximately 0.1-0.2 MtCO2e at a cost of between -$190/ton and -$230/ton.
The carbon benefits of conventional hybrid %e-hicles, which recharge their battery from thi 0.1%
Oir Biofuels internal combustion engines, are small but neev-ertheless helpful and very cost-effective as an Different biofuel technologies have been avail-interim step towards 80X50. These vehicles aire 0.1 able for some time, but it was only in recent 1 expected to represent 30 percent of all vehicl es ,,, l years that their cost and availability expanded in 2030, but practically disappear by 2050, as L enough to make them a viable option for local battery electric and plug-in alternatives coin- *jjjj car fleets. All city vehicles running on diesel 1.2 tinue to improve. The abatement potential is -$530 currently use B5 year-round and over the next 0.2 MtCO2e in 2020 and 0.1 MtCO2e in 203 "0, two years the entire fleet will be increased to achieved at large societal savings: -$170/ton in B20 for the non-winter months. Scaling up bio-2020 and -$530/ton in 2030. fuel use could abate 0.2 MtCO2e in 2020, and 1$701 up to 1.2 MtCO2e between 2030 and 2050. Bio-Advanced internal combustion engines fuels command virtually no cost premium over at-
- conventional fuels which means that the they would lead Federal CAFE standards are leading to drama to negative abatement costs at -$701ton in 2030.
ic improvements in the fuel efficiency of co )n-ventional vehicles, and their impact is alreaidy LI. 0%~
captured in the business-as-usual emissio ns scenario. However, the standards only dictate improvements through 2025, and their impaict L0.7 on vehicle emissions will be limited by tihe speed of vehicle turnover. The potential exissts
ICarbonAbatement Costs for Selected Transportation Measures Employment Impacts of Transportation Sector Carbon Abatement
% of total; total emissions reduced in MtCOe I Thousands of Jobs 0 Negative 4 -.-- Net Impact Between So and $ioo Long term shift in competitiveness Above loo - Capital expenditures 3 iOpportunity cost of local spending 2.7 2020 6% 1.7 2, 2030 1.l 2050 t
5.4 0tinE
-1 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: NYCMayor's Office Source: NYC Mayors Office
I Trnsoraio Challenges The transit network is vast but still finite and The economics of driving are not fully efficient infrastructure is in need of modernization. For any practice that carries a cost, reflecting it directly is Subways make the city run, but they don't go every- usually a good idea - charging for electricity per kilowatt-where: 28 percent of New Yorkers do not live within a hour instead of monthly makes people watch their usage, half-mile of a subway station. Even if a subway station and taxing cigarettes deters smoking and recovers some is near, not all routes are convenient: traveling from the of the indirect costs imposed on society at large from Bronx to Queens or from Manhattan to JFK can take a the illness they cause. Driving comes with a multitude of long time - and driving may become the preferred op- costs, but the only costs that are tied directly in propor-tion. Where subways do go, they may not always provide tion to the amount of miles driven are fuel and mainte-a speed and frequency of service or level of comfort that nance costs. Insurance is priced based on a measure of potential travelers find preferable to other modes. risk for accidents, but not amount driven, and the nega-tive externalities of driving - congestion and air pollution Walking and biking can be uninviting, unsafe, - are not priced at all.
or both Planning jurisdiction and operational author-The city's street grid was laid out in the days of the horse ity spans agencies and levels of government buggy, but more than two million vehicles traverse it to-day, and it shows. Cars, buses, bicycles, and pedestrians All of the city's systems feature a complex mix of players compete for limited space, and while a neighborhood like - but transportation is perhaps the most varied of them the West Village can be very pedestrian and bike-friend- all. City government may control streets and zoning, but ly because of its small right-of-ways, walking or biking agencies at other levels of government fund, construct, along Queens Boulevard is a different story altogether. and operate major components of the city's transporta-The city has made great strides in reducing traffic fatali- tion infrastructure. As a result, major projects often take ties through a raft of street design measures, but there is decades to materialize. Most importantly, vehicle choices more to be done. come down to millions of individual decisions - and un-like with buildings, where the local building code governs New technologies are available, but adoption construction, the parameters of those choices are set at the federal level, and then only loosely.
has been slow EVs and biofuels hold a lot of promise, but their adoption is gradual and will take time to get to scale. EVs account for just 0.1 percent of all new vehicles purchased in the metropolitan area since 2010, and biofuels are mainly available only through bioethanol added to gasoline, which does not lead to a significant emissions reduc-tion. Unlike ethanol, biodiesel use is not required and not available in the retail market even though it is far bet-ter environmentally. For EVs, the incremental cost, con-tinued concerns about range, and scarcity of charging stations are obstacles to growth despite their increasing affordability.
Trasportaio Capturing the Potential Strategy 1 Zone for Neighborhood Density and Diversity I Thousands; Daily Citi Bike 2013;Ridership normalized Trends for weekly fluctuations Much of the city is already dense and mixed-use, but 40 38 opportunities for improvement still exist - and zoning, which determines how a given plot of land can be used 33 and how much can be built on it, is the best tool at the 30 City's disposal. Over 120 City-initiated rezonings were completed in the city in the last decade, allowing greater 20 2 8*/ 2Z3 density in areas close to transit while limiting growth in auto-dependent areas. The combination of City policy and market activity ensured that more than 87 percent of new building permits between 2007 and 2012 were is-sued in areas within %mile of a subway or commuter rail 10 8' station. (See chart: New Building Permitsand TransitCov- 0 erage). As the city continues to attract new residents and grow,- careful use of zoning proceeding in tandem with transit improvements could ensure that opportunities June July August September October for development continue to get created in areas where Source: Citi Bike many residents will find car ownership is not a necessity.
Strategy 2 I 2007-2012; New Buildingall construction Permits and types Transit Coverage Build and Maintain Transit Infrastructure Transit infrastructure takes time to build and is expen-
[11 /2 Mile Buffer from Subway Station sive to maintain - but it is indispensable when it comes to carbon abatement. Putting the city onto an 80 by 50 pathway would require improving transit where it already I Taxi and Transit Ridership by Share of Total Monthly Trips Percent of total; 2013 100% o-0.5% --- 1o.6%
- Citi Bike 7.3% Taxi 6.0% WkCommuter Rail 80% M Subway 60%
86.1%
40%
20%
Source: NYCMayor's Office May July September Source: MTA, NYCTLC,Citi Bike, NYCMayor's Office
ý NYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
IIra spor I Segmented into 3Share Possible Bike phasesExpansion Areas from 2009 Study Bicycle share expansion Citi Bike, the city's bike share-program, saw excellent growth since its launch in May 2013: by October, more than 90,000 annual members had joined, and the daily number of rides was on track to reaching 40,000 - still far below 470,000 daily taxi trips, let alone millions of sub-way rides, but picking up quickly. (See chart: Daily Citi Bike Ridership Trends and Taxi and Transit Ridership by Share of Total Monthly Trips)
The system, however, is only in its first phase - and there is potential for it to expand. The 2009 study from the Department of City Planning that evaluated the po-tential for bike share in New York City envisioned three V
stages of implementation: the first one, with 10,500 bi-cycles, would cover the densest areas of Manhattan and Brooklyn; the second one, bringing the system to 30,000 bicycles, would expand into Queens and the Bronx, and
__ *440. further into Northern Manhattan and Brooklyn; and the
/ third one, increasing the capacity to 50,000 bikes, could cover the city as far as Coney Island and Pelham Bay Park, spanning 81 square miles. (See map: Possible Bike Share Expansion Areas from 2009 Study)
I The damage from Hurricane Sandy to bike share infra-structure stored in the Brooklyn Navy Yard shrank first stage deployment, but most of the area mentioned in the Source: NYCDCP original study is now covered. Covering the remaining ar-eas would make it possible to reduce short car trips and would also make it easier for New Yorkers to access new exists and taking it to areas that it does not yet cover - Select Bus Service routes. However, the main obstacle while being careful to invest in the options that deliver to the program expansion is funding, both for capital and the greatest marginal benefit for the amoun t of money operating costs. For the first phase, sponsorships by Ci-spent. tibank and MasterCard paid all of the initial capital costs and membership fees are covering the operating costs.
The financing model, for subsequent phases, is yet to be Bus rapid transit established. City capital or private sponsors could pay Of all the transit options, BRT lines may hav e the most for the capital costs, but membership revenues may not to contribute to carbon abatement: they are quick to set be enough to cover the operating costs because the num-up and require little enough investment that multiple ber of users per bike would decline as residential density ones could be set up along major transpor t corridors, falls. In that case, an ongoing financial commitment from The city's BRT offering, Select Bus Service, a Iready runs either the City or a private sponsor would be required to on four routes, and several route expansion s are in the expand the system.
works, including on Webster Avenue in the Bronx and Nostrand Avenue in Brooklyn. More SBS rc)utes could continue to encourage drivers to shift away'from cars, Subways save time for existing commuters, and mak e neighbor- Because subways are so expensive and take so long to hoods more attractive. build, new lines would not serve as a marginal carbon
I~ ~
Trnprto m 7 abatement method for the short or even the medium and Boston - and displacing car and airline travel as a term. The more immediate concern for the system is to result. Amtrak recently proposed a plan to upgrade the maintain the quality of service on existing lines, and the speed of its trains by 2041, and while a discussion of the biggest challenge to that is funding. As with any other funding and planning challenges of the endeavor are be-transportation option, the system requires taxpayer sup- yond the scope of this report, local support would still be port and cannot be funded by user fees alone. The financ- important. For commuter rail, the drivers of expansion es of the MTA, the New York State agency that runs the would be less about incremental abatement and more city's subway system, would need to be strengthened in about the availability of funding and need for capacity in-order for service to remain convenient and reliable. creases. Two rail tunnels connecting to New Jersey under the Hudson River are more than 100 years old and both One possible exception that could reduce emissions in are over capacity. A new link, perhaps following in the the short to medium term is the extension of the N line footsteps of the now-suspended project called ARC (Ac-to serve LaGuardia airport, which was last seriously dis- cess to the Region's Core), could improve the passenger cussed last decade. Because the only transit option for flow into and out of the city.
getting to LGA is the bus, the project would have the po-tential to reduce emissions directly. In the longer term, Strategy 3 better connections between Queens and Brooklyn - in- Improve the Streetscape cluding possibly those that rely on existing unused right-of-ways - would merit consideration, though as with the Safer, pedestrian-friendly streets current two extensions, economic development con- Neighborhood plazas, wider sidewalks, pedestrian is-cerns would likely drive the decision-making. lands, and an assortment of traffic calming measures have been popping up across the city and making streets bet-Ferries ter and safer for all New Yorkers. Seniors and schoolchil-The East River Ferry service already brings commuters dren have received special attention through programs from Long Island City and Brooklyn waterfront to Wall like Safe Streets for Seniors and Safe Routes to Schools.
Street. As the city's waterfront continues to be redevel- Thanks to these and other measures, the city's streets oped, ferries will grow in importance, and opportunities are safer than they have been at any point in the last 100 for new routes will arise. The former Domino factory in years. As the city grows and changes, more will need to Williamsburg is just one example of a new project that be done. The difficulty lies in the extremely fragmented could benefit from ferry connectivity. As with subways nature of needed improvements: no two intersections though, new ferry projects would be driven primarily by are the same, and many changes require long approval economic development considerations and would re- and community engagement processes. A methodical fo-quire near-term subsidies. cus on incremental improvements all over the city - often relying on piloting and testing to quickly establish what Streetcars works and what does not - has proven to work and could Streetcars ran in the city's streets up until the 1950s - be a template for the future.
then, the service was shut down and the rails were re-moved; the last remaining cars from that era are now Bike lane expansion rusting behind a Fairway supermarket in Red Hook. Pro- Cycling is most effective as a marginal carbon abatement posals exist to resurrect streetcar service in parts of the tool in areas that are not well served by transit - it is in city but the marginal cost of construction is still substan- those areas that it replaces driving instead of subway tial enough that any projects would have to be weighed rides. Incidentally, these are the areas that aren't well carefully against cheaper alternatives such as bus rapid served by the existing bike lane network either (See map:
transit. Built Density and Distance to Bike Lanes) - which means that focusing the network expansion efforts on those ar-Regional and commuter rail eas may be the best way to capture the carbon abate-For rail, the greatest abatement potential lies in launch- ment potential of cycling. The process can be lengthy ing true high-speed service between Washington D.C. and challenging, and each mile of a new bike lane would SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Built Density and Distance to Bike Lanes Population density per acre in thousands
-l <15 1 15 - 75
-75 - 150
/ 150 - 350
-350 +
Bike Lanes
-- ' 1/4 Mile Buffer from Bike Lane
I ~ Trnsoraio S 0
serve fewer riders than it would in a dense neighborhood revenue neutral initiative that encourages vehicle buyers
- but with the bike lane network already well-developed and car manufacturers to invest in efficiency. Under this in denser parts of the city, the less dense areas represent framework, vehicles with above average efficiency would the next frontier. receive a rebate while those with below average efficien-cy would be assessed a fee.
Bike bridge access EV charging infrastructure The bike lane network may be well developed within some neighborhoods, but the city's boroughs could be Charging is perhaps the biggest barrier to EV adoption:
connected better. Bridges are part of the answer - and although there are over 180 public charging stations while Manhattan, Williamsburg, and Queensboro bridges throughout the city, it is not enough - and only three are all have separate paths for cyclists, the same is not true of the fastest variety that can charge a vehicle in 30 min-of all the major connections. Some, like the Verrazano, utes or less.. To improve charging infrastructure around from Brooklyn to Staten Island, and the Whitestone, from the city, three strategies could help. First, there could Queens to the Bronx, have no accommodations for bi- be more EV charging points in garages and parking lots cyclists at all. Others, like the Henry Hudson, Robert F. (which is where most of the existing 180 are today). The Kennedy and Marine Parkway bridges, require riders to City has been partnering with the private sector, as well dismount. Still others have bike paths that could use im- as Federal and State governments to develop these -
provement: on the Brooklyn Bridge, the narrow walkway and more are on the way. (See map: Existing EV Charging can be congested for cyclists and pedestrians alike, while Points) Second, the issue of parking would need to be on the Pulaski bridge from Long Island City to Greenpoint, addressed: at least some street chargers would need to the shared pedestrian and bike path can be as narrow as be available if EVs are to be adopted en masse. A pilot to 8 feet. Creating bike paths where none exist and improv- evaluate the feasibility and utilization levels of dedicated ing them where they do will be critical to making biking EV parking spots could be a helpful starting point. Final-in the city more viable. ly, the City can implement a recently passed local law that will require 20 percent of new residential and workplace parking to be "charger ready." The incremental cost to Strategy 4 developers will be negligible - the measure only requires Support Cleaner Vehicles the installation of wiring and not of actual chargers - but will help prevent costly retrofits in the future.
Clean vehicle incentives Most incentives for clean vehicles arrive in the form of Electric taxi pilot federal tax credits - those for EVs, for example. Still, If an electric taxi can make it in New York it can make there are options at the state and local level to encourage it anywhere. Few vehicles drive as much every day and clean vehicle ownership among private and commercial suffer as much abuse as the New York City's yellow cabs.
users alike. For commercial vehicles, two programs are Several electric taxis, all Nissan Leafs, are already cruis-already available: the Hunts Point Clean Truck Program, ing the city's streets as part of an electric taxi pilot, and managed by City DOT, aims to take at least 500 of the old-a Taxi and Limousine Commission study of what it would est, most polluting trucks off of the streets of the Bronx; take to electrify 1/3 of the fleet is underway. Such a fleet the Citywide Private Fleet Alternative Fuel Programs, co-would reduce emissions by 90,000 tons a year - but at managed by DOT and NYSERDA, offers rebates of up to least three issues arise.
80 percent of the increased cost of choosing an electric or alternative fuel vehicle over a conventional one. The The choice of vehicle is one: the Leaf is not custom-built NYSERDA Program has been operating for over 10 years for full-time taxi operation, and it does not have much and has funded hundreds of clean advanced technology passenger space. An electric version of the Nissan vehicles. Another program is on the way as well: NYSER-NV200, a custom-built taxi designed just for New York or DA will be providing rebates to commercial sector fleets a similarly sized vehicle would likely replace the Leaf in exclusively for the purchase of new electric trucks. No in-any large-scale electrification, but that vehicle is still be-centive programs are in place for private vehicles yet, but ing tested and developed.
one option is a local or regional "feebate" program - a SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I Trnprtto I added costs are particularly problematic if a charger I 2013 Existing EV Charging Points has low utilization. Within the taxi electrification effort, it may be possible to rely on mobile technology to in-
&cease charger utilization But in the longer term, the City, the electric utilities and regulators may need to address the fundamental economics of standby charges to make quick chargers more viable.
EVs at Hunts Point market A.
The Hunts Point Food Distribution Center (FDC) is the
-City's primary food hub, with more than 100 wholesale distributors supplying more than 50 percent of the City's produce, meat, and fish. Most commodities arrive by truck, and most trucks run on conventional diesel. To pro-mote the conversion of truck fleets to alternative fuels,
'6 A.
r the City is partnering with a private developer to build a retail alternative fueling station in the FDC. In addition to offering biodiesel, CNG, ethanol, and limited conven-tional fuel, this project also plans to offer electric vehicle charging stations, which will make electric vehicles more attractive and help electrify some of the 12,000 daily truck trips to the FDC.
Source: NYCMayor's Office The charging network - or lack thereof - is another ob-stacle. Because each taxi drives more than 50 passenger miles per 12-hour shift (as well as additional miles spent i Number of chargers Potential per district Quick Charge Network for Electric Taxis cruising for fares and traveling to and from home or a fleet garage), it would need to recharge after each shift 2
- and existing chargers are too slow to work with the economics of the industry. A citywide network of quick 12 chargers, which can recharge a battery to 80 percent in 30 minutes or less, would have to be installed instead.
Quick chargers would require more space and could draw up to 15 times more power. To get the network in-stalled, City, State, and the private sector would have to cooperate. (See map: PotentialQuick Charge Network for Electric Taxis) 3 3
The economics of the electric sector present a final chal- 1 lenge: electricity is billed not just on the amount of en- 3 Bi4"tyhIN
- 4 A3 2 ergy consumed, but on the speed it is used. The rationale is that just as it costs more to build and maintain a high- I way than a dirt road, it costs more to build and maintain a higher voltage electricity distribution system that can supply large amounts of energy quickly. At the price of
$12-22 per kW for demand charges could add $30,000 a year to the cost of running a quick charger - these Source: NYCMayor's Office
Traspotaio 0
Strategy 5 Strategy 6 Support Biofuels Make Driving More Economically Efficient Biofuels are already available, but just as with EVs, their Use fees for vehicle travel adoption has been gradual. Supply is not the limiting fac-Use fees - a regional vehicle miles travelled charge or tor - plenty of capacity is available locally, however little retail infrastructure exists. To promote biofuel adoption, congestion pricing - can help reduce VMT and increase City and State governments could work to explore biofu-available funding for transit. New York City proposed el mandates. The City's own fleet could serve as a testing a congestion pricing program in 2008, with the idea of charging drivers for entering the Central Business District ground for progressively higher biofuel blends. New York City's municipal fleet has emerged as one of the largest and using the revenues to fund transit - but it did not ad-purchasers of biofuels on the East Coast: some City ve-vance past the State Assembly despite support from the hicles already use blends of up to 30 percent, and blends City Council. Several European cities have successfully of up to 90 percent are being tested. The municipal fleet put similar programs in place: in one example, bus use in average could approach 30 percent by 2020 already, set-Stockholm's core rose 9 percent after the city introduced a congestion charge; in another, Singapore experienced ting an example for other large fleets around the city.
a 73 percent decline in the use of private cars, a 30 per-Biofuels requirements for City contractors have not been introduced yet, but could be considered.
cent increase in carpools, and a doubling of buses' share of work traffic.1 s In the case of New York, a similar use fee tool could offer a 0.3 MtCO2e reduction and generate nearly a billion dollars a year for transit investment.
Dynamic pricing for parking Dynamic pricing for parking helps match parking supply to parking demand and avoids situations in which driv-ers cruise endlessly for available parking spots, which contribute to congestion. San Francisco (SFPark) and Los Angeles (LAExpresspark) already have such programs in place, and New York City is conducting pilots in Green-wich Village, Park Slope, Jackson Heights, and Atlantic/
Smith/Court Streets as part of the PARK Smart program.
Depending on the results of the pilots, the program could be expanded further, making parking in the city more efficient.
Pay as you drive insurance As its name suggests, "pay as you drive" insurance (PAYD) allows drivers to pay for insurance based on the amount of miles they drive. Newly available thanks to simple de-vices that car owners can install to share driving data with their insurance companies, PAYD rewards drivers for driving less, thereby contributing to reductions in the number of miles traveled. Two insurance companies be-gan offering PAYD insurance in New York in early 2013; in the longer term, ifthe experience proves successful, a 50 percent switch to PAYD insurance could abate as much as 0.5 MtCO2e.
ý NYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
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Soid Wat Overview On the city's sidewalks, black bags pile up at night; by with an 80 by 50 goal would need to go far beyond that. On morning, they disappear into the bellies of garbage trucks. that pathway, the volumes of waste would have to drop, Leftover food and old clothes, used paper cups and coffee most recyclable waste would have to be recycled, most shop grinds, wood and metal and concrete debris all add organic waste would need to be composted or turned up to 10 million tons of waste a year - enough to fill the into biogas, and the rest would be converted to energy Empire State Building 21 times over, or to load up more with minimal environmental impact. Very little would be than 3,000 large trucks every day. Around 15 percent of landfilled.
this material ends up at recycling plants; another 10 to 15 percent is converted to energy at facilities in New Jersey; The potential does exist to achieve these outcomes - and less than 1 percent becomes compost; and the remainder nearly all of the individual measures to get there would travels as far away as Virginia and South Carolina to end lead to savings in the long term. Yet unlocking this poten-up in landfills. City taxpayers fund the residential part of tial will be challenging. New Yorkers would need to im-the system, spending more than $100 for every ton that prove recycling habits, which will be aided by the recent goes to landfills, but earning back up to $20 for every ton simplification of rules and improved messaging. Waste that is recycled, for a net expenditure of more than $300 processing infrastructure improved significantly this fall million a year for the export of waste. Collection costs run with the opening of the new Sims recycling facility in South an additional $700 million. Commercial waste is paid for by Brooklyn - but the infrastructure to process organic waste businesses directly. would need to be expanded. Plants in New Jersey convert some of the waste-to-energy - but newer, cleaner, and Annual emissions from waste amount to 2.1 million metric more efficient plants are yet to be built.
tons - most from paper and organic waste as they de-compose in landfills, and the rest from waste-to-energy fa- These challenges are real, but they may be possible to cilities and from the trucks and trains that move the waste overcome - and initiatives of the last years have already within the city and away from it. Emissions fell more than pushed New York City towards a more sustainable solid 20 percent in recent years because New Yorkers generate waste system. With the appropriate long-term commit-less waste, and because some of the waste now travels by ment, emissions from solid waste could continue to drop rail and barge instead of truck - but reductions consistent and potentially even be neutralized.
SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I oidW Solid Waste Fundamentals New York City's residents, workers, and visitors generate carters, recyclables are taken to a variety of private pro-more than 10 million tons of waste every year. Approxi- cessing facilities; compostable waste mostly travels to a mately two-thirds of this waste is generated from every- facility in Delaware - though large commercial facilities day activities and typically left for pickup on the curb. are now under development closer by; and the remaining The remaining third is debris from the construction and waste either goes directly to waste-to-energy facilities demolition of buildings (also called C&D waste). An addi- or is offloaded at a network of private transfer stations tional 4.8 million tons of fill - essentially dirt from excava- in and around the city and exported to remote landfills, tions - is generated each year but nearly all of it is reused mostly by truck. (See chart: New York City's Solid Waste within the city and thus is not a major source of exported Infrastructure) waste or GHG emissions.
The costs of managing the city's waste are substantial.
Uniformed City workers from the Department of Sanita- DSNY spends more than $700 million a year to collect the tion (DSNY) pick up waste from residents, City govern- waste, and more than $300 million to export it, paying ment buildings, and some large institutions like hospitals on the order of $100/ton for landfill exports, around $60/
and universities. More than 200 commercial carters pick ton to recycle metal, glass, and plastic, and earning $20/
up waste from businesses. Residents are required to ton on paper recycling. Businesses spend comparable separate their waste into three streams: paper and card- amounts.
board, metal/glass/plastic, and all the rest.1 7 Businesses are also required by law to recycle and some are now The system has evolved over the years. In the first half required to source separate organic waste. (See chart: of the twentieth century, building-based incineration was Residential Waste Composition) common, and disposal in local landfills was the standard until municipal landfills started closing, culminating in the Once picked up, residential and commercial waste is closure of Fresh Kills Landfill on Staten Island in 2001. In typically transported to one of four types of destinations: 2006, the City's Comprehensive Solid Waste Management recycling facilities, organic waste processing facilities, Plan (SWMP) addressed the issues of geographic equity waste-to-energy facilities, or landfills. A small but poten- in the siting of waste transfer infrastructure. Historically tially growing amount of organic waste is processed at the Bronx and Staten Island hosted a disproportionate the City's wastewater treatment plants; several hundred part of the city's waste infrastructure. The SWMP sought tons a year are also composted locally at neighborhood to minimize in-city waste truck traffic by committing to community gardens. In 2011, recycling rates for residen- construct a network of marine transfer stations through-tial, commercial, and C&D waste were at 20 percent, 46 out the city, where waste would be loaded onto barges percent, and 45 percent, respectively. Between 8 and 19 and then taken to transfer stations outside the city, in or-percent of waste was converted to energy, one percent der to be put into rail cars and trucks and exported to was composted, and the rest was sent to landfills. (See landfills. Each borough would manage the waste it gener-charts: New York City Solid Waste by Source and Mode of ates at facilities located within the borough. The City is Disposal and New York City Residential and Commercial in the process of signing long-term export contracts with Solid Waste Flows) landfills in the Northeast; five marine transfer stations are under construction and are scheduled to become opera-Solid waste transfer and processing facilities are spread tional in 2018.
throughout the city and far beyond it as well. The major-ity of DSNY's recyclable content is managed at the new Approaches to managing waste are also evolving: in the Sims facility in South Brooklyn; composting is taken to 2011 update to PlaNYC, the City committed to divert-locations in Staten Island, Rikers Island, and most recent- ing 75 percent of solid waste from landfills by 2030 (the ly, to the Newtown Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant; number includes fill). In 2013, the City also undertook the and everything left over is taken to waste-to energy fa- largest expansion of the recycling program in its 25 year cilities outside of the city or to transfer stations in the history by accepting all rigid plastics for recycling for the city that coordinate delivery to landfills as far away as first time.
Virginia and South Carolina. In the case of commercial
I oid at New York City Solid Waste by Source and Mode of Disposal Residential Waste by Composition Millions of tons of waste; %,2011 Millions short tons; % of total; 2004-2005 4.1 4 Recy cld Muonvee D4 Eandfte 17%
3.4%,
Residential Commercial Construction and demolition Source: NYC Mayor's Office Source: NYCMayor's Office New York City Residential and Commercial Solid Waste Flows"8 Thousands of tons; 2011 Metal/ glass/
plastic Recycled Paper Composted Converted Food waste Other organics Landfilled Inorganic Source: NYCMayor's Office SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I oid at New York City's Solid Waste Infrastructure As of 2013 Waste type Lo il tracspri Transter no- output:
Wastewater treatment Flared Rikes a Converted to
%ten island electririty and Iýpmpostlngrp heat onsite Source- Organics separated trucks organics Injected into compo:ting st r7ities' natural gas Cornmerý""
C
- fcaoc i.1?d Zioe1. grid Sim Sims recycling lecycling facillity (2014) Released into se recyc ra, ed cPaZt trucckts atmosphere ource g recycling facilities UnIc Ing Municipal Source-pa S
Mpa was it' I Essex waste solid'cwaste MSW trucks to energy Flared facility Converted to Transfer stations Landfill electricity and Construction heat onsite and demolition C&D trucks Injected into Secondary natural gas markets grid Also releases hiogenio (
Source: NYCMayor's Office Most recently, the processing of organic waste has come that content, beginning in 2015, in order to divert it from to the fore as the City is beginning to pilot curbside corn- landfills. The City is also working with a waste manage-posting pickup in several neighborhoods in all five bor- ment company to process food waste collected from oughs. In addition, working with the restaurant sector Public Schools into a slurry and then use spare anaero-on a Food Waste Challenge requires participants to com- bic digester capacity at the Newtown Creek Wastewater mit to diverting at least 50 percent of their food waste Treatment Plant to turn the food waste into biogas that from landfill, and most recently, passing a requirement can then be fed back into the utility grid.
that large generators of organic waste source separate
II Soi Wat Sources of GHG Emissions New York City's solid waste emissions come from three sources - landfill methane, waste-to-energy, and trans- I %Solid Waste of total; 2012GHG Emissions by Source portation - that in 2011 added up to more than 2.1 mil-lion tons.
Landfill methane is by far the biggest source: it is re-sponsible for 89 percent of all solid waste emissions (See chart: Solid Waste GHG Emissions by Source). The methane is generated when paper and organic waste decompose in landfills without oxygen (if oxygen were present, the decomposition would produce C02 instead).
Most landfills install equipment that captures up to 90-95 percent of the leaking methane and either flares it, produces electricity with it, or cleans it and feeds it into the gas grid. However, because the global warming effect of methane is 25 times as high as that of C02, even the relatively small amounts of fugitive emissions should be avoided.
Landfilled Emissions from processing waste at waste-to-energy fa-cilities are the second, but far smaller, source of emis-sions, with a 6 percent overall share. Transportation rep- Source: NYCMayor's Office resents an even smaller share of the overall emissions, but has been a source of emissions reductions in recent years as export of municipal solid waste has shifted from truck-based to rail- or barge-based transportation. I MtCO Solid e;Waste Emissions
% of total Transport IWaste -to- energy The relative composition of these three components has E Landfills remained relatively unchanged since 2005, but the total 3P0 fell by 21 percent, mostly because New Yorkers began to - 2.7 2.7 2.6 generate less waste per capita and because of the afore- ,5 mentioned mode shift. Exact reasons for the decline will 2,5 2.3 2.3 not be known until DSNY completes a new waste charac- I I i 2.1 terization study (the previous one dates from 2005), but 2.0 the technology-related decline in paper use and news-print circulation might offer a partial explanation. 1.5 1.
0.5 0,0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: NYCMayor's Office MNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Technical Potential of GHG Reduction Measures As % of total 2005 emissions F-Waste Prevention U
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I SomlWat Emissions Abatement Potential The "three R's" of solid waste management - reduce, reuse, recycle - are also a strong framework for limiting greenhouse gas emissions from the sector. On the 80 by 50 pathway, volumes of waste would need to drop as consumers use fewer disposables and manufacturers of goods pay greater attention to packaging. Nearly all organic waste would need to be composted or processed in anaerobic digesters within the region; nearly all re-cyclable material would need to be recycled; and most of what remains would need to be turned into to energy at state-of-the-art, low-emission conversion facilities. Only a very small portion of remaining waste would be sent to landfills, which would lead to savings both for businesses and residents. The sector that produces more than 2.1 million tons of emissions today would need to be nearly carbon free to reach 80 by 50.
Waste prevention management. This study however assumed, conserva-tively, that per capita generation rates will remain flat.
The best way to reduce carbon emissions from waste is not to generate it in the first place. Volumes of waste gen-Organic waste processing erated per capita usually go hand in hand with prosper-ity. The wealthier a city, the more its residents tend to Organic waste makes up about 35 percent of consume, and the less they tend to reuse. For example, the city's waste stream but less than one per-New York City residents generate nearly 1,800 pounds of cent of that amount is composted or otherwise waste per year on average, while residents of the aver- processed. The rest goes to landfills, including age city in China generate nearly half that - a reflection over 1.2 million tons of discarded food waste million0.81 of higher consumption and income levels in the U.S. com- alone. Organic waste is the greatest contribu- tonsb pared to China. tor to New York City's solid waste emissions because the decomposition of organic mate- -$60 In recent years though, New York City's waste generation rials in landfills in the absence of oxygen pro- pertoo'I volumes have been falling. Since 2005 they have fallen by duces methane - a greenhouse gas that is more than 20 percent. While the reasons behind the de- 25 times stronger than carbon dioxide. While cline are not entirely clear - explanations include lighter modern landfills can capture as much as 90 percent of packaging, a decline in paper use because of computer- their methane - which they either flare, feed back into ization, and a shift in consumption patterns away from the natural gas grid, or convert to electricity onsite -
goods and towards services), they mirror the national older landfills may emit methane at higher rates. Two fa-trends: solid waste generation in the U.S. stood at 980 vorable alternatives to landfilling organic waste can help pounds per year back in 1960, climbed to 1,730 in 2000, to reduce emissions.
and has since declined to 1,606 - a drop of more than 7 percent. The first alternative, composting, involves the decom-position of organic waste in the presence of oxygen at Still, potential exists to reduce the volumes of waste fur- either small-scale facilities in backyards or community ther - for example, another 20 percent reduction would gardens, or at a larger scale in windrows. Because the de-eliminate 0.4 million tons of emissions. For example, composition is aerobic, organic compounds break down reducing the use of disposable paper and plastic bags into C02 instead of methane - and because these ma-by 75 percent - the kinds of reductions that cities like terials (plants, for example) originally captured C02 from Washington DC and Dublin that introduced bag fees or the air, the net impact on global emissions is zero (such bans are seeing - could reduce emissions by almost emissions are also called biogenic).
20,000 tCO 2e. In another example, reducing the use of plastic foodservice packaging by 55 percent could re- The second option, anaerobic digestion (AD), involves duce emissions by 11,000 tons. These numbers are the accelerated decomposition of organics without the highly understated given that they only capture local presence of oxygen in the same process that sewage un-emissions and not the upstream emissions embedded in dergoes at wastewater treatment plants after it received these disposables - a factor that is important to consid- initial treatment. Digesters break down the waste into er in any discussions of the impact of better solid waste water, methane, and sludge. The sludge is then exported I Percentage sector wide reduction bAmount of CO2e abated ICost to abate carbon SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I S lW to specialized landfills or turned into fertilizer, while the recycling far outweigh those emissions that New York methane is captured and, just as with landfill methane, City's current carbon inventory would capture.
is either flared, burned to produce heat and energy, or cleaned and returned into the natural gas distribution Just like anaerobic digestion, recycling is also attractive grid, as will be the case at the City's Newtown Creek economically: the City is currently paying around $60/ton Wastewater Treatment facility. to process metal, glass, and plastic - an almost 50 per-cent reduction from the cost of landfilling, and it is actu-Of the two options, scaling up of anaerobic digestion ally earning up to $20/ton for paper. As a result, improv-holds the greatest carbon reduction potential. Initiatives ing recycling rates can offer cost-negative reductions at a like backyard and community garden composting are im- cost of around -$130 per ton of carbon.
portant, particularly to build public awareness, but regu-lar composting fails to capture all of the energy embed- The city's current recycling rate is relatively low com-ded in organic waste (which is why composting heaps pared to other major cities which is why such aggres-heat up), whereas AD captures most of it. Anaerobic sive efforts are underway to increase participation. Only digestion also makes economic sense. Societal cost of about 20 percent of residential waste is recycled. Recy-carbon reductions is on the order of negative $60/ton in cling rates in the commercial sector are higher - around 2030 because processing waste locally and turning it into 46 percent, in part because much of it is paper, which is energy is far cheaper than sending it to landfills by truck. a valuable commodity. If recycling rates were to increase The GHG reduction potential from it amounts to at least to 30 percent on the residential side - which is the City's 0.8 MtCO2e in 2050. current 2020 goal - and, very conservatively, stay at least unchanged on the commercial side, the city could Of the two options, scaling up of anaerobic digestion reduce annual GHG emissions by at least 0.5 MtCO2e by holds the greatest carbon reduction potential. Initiatives 2050.
like backyard and community garden composting are im-portant, particularly to build public awareness, but regu- Waste-to-energy conversion lar composting fails to capture all of the energy embed- Approximately 19 percent of the city's non-ded in organic waste (which is why composting heaps recycled residential waste and 7 percent of its 3.9%
heat up), whereas AD captures most of it. It also makes non-recycled commercial waste travels to con-economic sense: societal cost of carbon reductions is on version facilities in Essex County, New Jersey the order of negative $60/ton in 2030 because process- rather than to landfills. These facilities utilize 2.5 million ing waste locally and turning it into energy is far cheaper high temperatures to combust waste and then tons than sending it to landfills by truck. The GHG reduction use the heat from the combustion to produce potential from it amounts to at least 0.8 MtCO2e in 2050. steam, which then powers the turbines that -$100 generate electricity. per ton Recycling Non-organic recyclables that end up in landfills A newer technology called plasma gasification is begin-contribute less to the City's Scope 2 emissions % ning to emerge as a viable alternative: in gasification fa-than organics do. This is because of the recy- cilities, waste is not combusted, but is rather heated up clables that New York City collects, only paper to such a high temperature that it breaks down into basic decomposes, while metal, glass, and plastic 0[5 molecules that form synthetic gas (syngas) which is then only contribute to transportation emissions. millon used to produce electricity - a cleaner and more efficient That said, the real benefit of recycling comes ton, way of turning waste into energy. The technology is not from reducing upstream emissions by temper- yet available in or around New York City, but the plants ing demand for virgin materials like paper and -$130 are clean enough and can be small enough to potentially aluminum that require large amounts of ener-perton site them in or near the city and connect them to either gy to produce (aluminum smelters require so the local district heating systems or even potentially the much energy that they are usually sited based on prox- steam system. Plasma gasification facilities could also be imity to cheap electricity). The avoided emissions from retooled to turn syngas into methane and then export it to the grid or to turn it into liquid fuels.
Soid at Several pilots have already been constructed around the Low-emission waste transport U.S. and globally and the technology is becoming more Waste transport accounts for just 4 percent of the city's promising. Although the siting of waste-to-energy facili- solid waste emissions. A small share comes from the ties within or close to the city could be met with oppo- trucks that collect waste within the city; the majority is sition from local residents, other cities - most notably from larger long-distance export trucks that travel hun-Copenhagen - have successfully integrated small scale dreds of miles to landfills out of state because landfilling waste-to-energy facilities into their district heating sys- is cheaper where land values are lower. The City's 2006 tems, ultimately gaining public acceptance for the idea of Solid Waste Management Plan called for transitioning to processing waste closer to where it is generated. rail and barges for exporting waste as an alternative to trucks and implementation of the plan has already re-The total potential carbon abatement from plasma gas- duced emissions by 50,000 tons. Transport emissions ification is 2.5 MtCO2e by 2050, which would enable the could be reduced further through additional mode-waste sector overall to become a carbon sink - i.e. it shifting or through using more efficient vehicles and would create a net reduction in the city's overall emis- cleaner fuels for the long-haul export trucks. Because of sions inventory. It is important to note, however, that al- the small size of the impact of mode-shifting, the exact though waste conversion using plasma gasification may potential was not quantified.
be attractive from a carbon accounting point of view, it should not become a replacement for waste prevention, Capture and reuse of landfill gas recycling, and composting, all of which are preferable from an overall environmental standpoint. As with organ- All landfills to which the city exports its waste capture ics processing and recycling, the cost per ton of carbon fugitive methane, which they flare, turn to energy, or sell abated would be negative - around -$1 00/ton in 2030. into the natural gas. The average landfill capture rate is around 85 percent. At landfills within the city, all of which are now capped, generation of methane is declin-ing and methane capture is improving, which in recent years contributed to a 30,000 tCO2e reduction in emis-sions. While small additional improvements may be pos-sible with better technology, further analysis was not conducted.
SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Soli W Challenges The solid waste system could one day be nearly carbon-free - but three challenges stand in the way, having to do with choices, incentives, and infrastructure.
The right choice is not always the easy choice Infrastructure to support new waste handling within the existing system methods is unavailable locally Every day, eight million New Yorkers make decisions New York City exports most of its waste, and local facili-about waste - whether to reuse, or recycle, or to com- ties for processing it are in limited supply. The situation post, orto send something into a landfill. These decisions improved this fall with the opening of the Sims Recycling compete with hundreds of others - and ifit comes to a Facility in South Brooklyn, but more infrastructure is need-choice between putting a water bottle in the trash, re- ed, particularly for organic waste processing. Small-scale, cycling it, or not buying it in the first place, the simplest community- based composting programs are spreading option will often win. Recycling is available, but can be to Greenmarkets and neighborhood facilities throughout complicated; composting is thought of as an option for the city thanks to a partnership between GrowNYC and only the most environmentally minded. And even envi- the NYC Department of Parks and Recreation, but these ronmentalists can be frustrated by resource choices and sites do not offer sufficient processing capacity for a city-packaging decisions that are made upstream, where the wide organic composting effort. Additional processing consumer has little influence. As a result, most waste infrastructure is expected to come online now that the ends up in landfills - even if the people who send it there City passed legislation that will require large generators would prefer that it did not. to divert organic waste from landfills by 2015.
Many residents and businesses are not con-cerned and have no incentive to be Some New Yorkers pay enough attention to recycling and composting that they will begin to recycle new types of waste on the first day a new option is announced. But others will express little or know interest in learning new rules or changing behavior. They might benefit from hav-ing more information - but that may not stop them from feeling that "green" options are too varied or inconve-nient. They might choose to modify their behavior ifthey had the incentive - but with waste pickup included in the tax bill, they have few reasons to do so.
I oid at Capturing the Potential Strategy 1 several times a month and delivering it to transfer sta-Making it Easier to Compost and Recycle tions, from where it is sent onward to composting and anaerobic digestion facilities. The program has proven Recycling in the public realm successful and is now being expanded to other neighbor-New Yorkers can recycle at home and at work-but until hoods and building types.
recently their only option on most city streets was to toss their recyclables in garbage cans. In March 2013, Mayor Strategy 2 Bloomberg launched the city's first public space recycling Changing Behaviors through Education, pilot, inaugurating 30 BigBelly solar-powered recycling Challenges and Incentives compactors in Times Square that will serve more than 500,000 people who pass through the area every day. Improving marketing and education Conventional recycling containers are on the way as well:
by the end of 2013, the City will place more than 1,000 of Individual actions can have a huge impact in chang-them around New York. Future efforts to encourage recy- ing the marketplace. New Yorkers are certainly open to cling would have to continue expanding the availability of the idea of changing their behaviors: a recent study by public recycling options. GreeNYC, PlaNYC's public education arm, found that the city's residents were collectively willing to take simple Recycling in apartment buildings actions that could reduce up to 200,000 tons of paper, textile, and food waste per year-2 percent of the city's Many of the city's apartment dwellers may want to recy- waste stream. Converting this willingness into real re-cle but may not know enough about their options or may ductions will be challenging. Collection for commercial lack room for separate recycling bins in their buildings. and residential waste streams operates entirely indepen-To expand the availability of space for recycling in apart- dently and this can cause confusion and frustration. To ment buildings, the Green Codes Task Force-a group address the issue, the City is already working to improve of more than 200 design and real estate professionals its educational tools and is working with the commercial that were convened by the Urban Green Council at the waste sector to achieve consistent messaging; the work request of Mayor Bloomberg and New York City Council will need to continue.
Speaker Christine Quinn-recommended that new and fully renovated buildings with more than 12 units include Food waste challenges a designated waste and recycling room. This proposal was enacted into law. Mayoral Challenges, where several organizations within an industry are asked to commit to sustainable goals on Existing buildings without dedicated recycling rooms can a voluntary basis have worked well for greenhouse gas still benefit from better information and simpler recycling emissions - and the model can be expanded to solid rules. To this end, DSNY recently expanded the recycling waste. The Mayor's Food Waste Challenge, a voluntary program to include for the first time the recycling of all challenge to the private sector to commit to divert from rigid plastics, including toys, hangers, shampoo bottles, landfills at least 50 percent of the food waste that they coffee cups and food containers, which will reduce confu- generate is doing just that. The program requires partici-sion about which plastic types are recyclable and which pants to conduct a baseline waste generation audit and are not. The City also simplified its information materials then use simple tracking techniques to measure diverted and messaging about recycling to educate New Yorkers waste on an ongoing basis. It will also be complemented about these changes. by a professionally branded, "consumer facing" cam-paign that could engage diners and the public to build Composting options awareness and support for organic waste composting. A high-profile group of participants and a successful pro-In 2013, DSNY started collecting organic waste from sev- gram could prove that organic waste diversion is feasi-eral neighborhoods in Staten Island, Queens and Brook- ble, affordable, and good for business.
lyn, picking it up from single- and multi-family homes
- [ NYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I S l Wat Price signals that large generators of organic waste - those that gen-erate at least one ton per week - divert it from landfills Waste collection and export may cost the City hun-through source separation. When fully enacted in 2015, dreds of millions of dollars annually, but most New York-the law could result in up to 30 percent of the city's or-ers would not notice since they are not billed directly ganic waste being diverted from landfills while only af-but rather indirectly through their tax bills. As a result, fecting less than 5 percent of businesses that generate households have no monetary incentives - other than organic waste and less than 0.5 percent of businesses fines for non-compliance - to either recycle more or to overall.
reduce the amount of waste they generate. Cities across the country have developed creative solutions to setting Diversion of construction and demolition waste price signals that incentivize waste reduction. For exam-ple, the City of Philadelphia and others have partnered Construction and demolition accounts for more than a with private companies to incentivize recycling by pro- quarter of the city's waste. The City is already addressing viding discounts and gift certificates at leading retailers. the issue through the Green Codes process: a recently Other cities have set direct price signals through Pay- passed local law requires at least 30 percent recycled as-As-You-Throw programs in which homes are charged for phalt in new streets, which will divert up to than 300,000 non-recyclable waste they generate, which becomes an tons of asphalt away from landfills every year. Two more incentive to produce less waste. In New York City, imple- proposals are moving through City Council: one estab-menting these programs in multifamily housing could be lishes requirements to recycle C&D waste from construc-challenging; one and two-family homes could present tion sites; the other requires a minimum percentage of less of an obstacle. recycled concrete in certain types of building materials.
The proposals are expected to be introduced in the first half of 2014.
Strategy 3 Spurring Action through Mandates and Packaging waste reduction Enforcement Governments, corporations and institutions across the Targeted waste reduction measures country have begun to implement "Extended Producer Responsibility" (EPR) programs that allow large purchas-According to the City's 2005 Waste Characterization ing entities to use their buying power to encourage prod-Study, paper and, plastic bags represent 3.4 percent of uct suppliers to reduce packaging waste and end of life the city's residential waste stream, or 120,000 tons a disposal costs without imposing an explicit tax. These year. Cities like Dublin and Washington DC have already programs allow producers to find the most efficient launched targeted campaigns to reduce disposable bag means of reducing waste, which can include reuse, buy-use - one program to impose small bag fees succeeded back, or recycling, often with the assistance of a third in reducing their volume by as much as 90 percent and party. These typically occur at the level of states - Cali-significantly reduced pollution in rivers and water bod-fornia's EPR programs have achieved significant reduc-ies. In New York City, similar measures to manage bag tion in the types and volume of packaging that end up in use could divert large amounts of waste from landfills at the waste stream, for example - but city-level measures a negligible consumer cost.
could be just as viable.
Organics collection from the largest generators Recycling enforcement The top 10 percent of food waste generators - large In 2010, Mayor Bloomberg signed legislation to raise the hotels, banquet halls, cafeterias, and food wholesalers penalties for failing to recycle for the first time in over
- produce approximately 40 percent of organic waste.
a decade. The new system created tiered penalties de-Policies and programs to introduce organics collection pending on building size; the penalties increase with for at least these largest generators - including through building size. As new recycling programs come into ef-mandates-would help jumpstart organics processing. To fect, strong and effective enforcement will be crucial.
this end, the City recently passed into law a requirement
I oid Strategy 4 facility is located in Delaware - but it uses the aerated Developing New Infrastructure to Support windrow method, which ensures that the waste releases Better Waste Disposal C02 instead of methane as it decomposes but does not capture its full energy potential. A pilot AD facility in or For years, New York City's waste processing infrastruc- near the city could help improve the economics of com-ture was focused on sending waste to landfills quickly posting, make it more attractive to local businesses, and and efficiently - first locally, in places like Fresh Kills, and begin to solve the self-reinforcing problem of constrained then to other nearby states. Recycling infrastructure is processing capacity preventing the takeoff of demand, beginning to catch up, but modern waste-to-energy and and vice versa.
anaerobic digestion facilities would still need to be con-structed if the city is to achieve its diversion goals and Organics processing at wastewater plants support the processing of higher volumes of waste di- If food waste challenges and, down the road, a potential verted from landfills as education and incentives begin organics mandate succeed in generating high enough to take effect.
food waste volumes, the private sector will inevitably step in to offer processing solutions. Yet the necessary Recycling AD infrastructure might take several years to permit and The city's recycling infrastructure is improving: working build - and in the meantime, processing capacity is read-in partnership with Sims Metal Management, the City is ily available within the city. Of the city's 14 wastewater now constructing a state-of-the-art recycling facility at the treatment plants, 4 have spare capacity to process up South Brooklyn Marine Terminal that will process metal, to 560 tons a day of organics, of which 500 tons are at glass, and an expanded variety of plastics. Another facil- Newtown Creek, the city's newest plant. There, the De-ity key to increasing the diversion rate is the Gansevoort partment of Environmental Protection (DEP) is partner-Marine Transfer Station, located on the Hudson River in ing with a private company called Waste Management to downtown Manhattan. The station, now under construc- process up to 60 tons of food waste a day, increasing to tion, will accept metal, glass, and plastic, along with pa- 250 tons by 2017 as long as all technical challenges are per from residential and commercial sources, and will resolved. DEP will also launch a study to examine the eco-become Manhattan's primary recycling marine transfer nomic and technical feasibility of repairing the digesters station, connecting by barge to the Sims facility and the that are currently out of service or even potentially build-Visy paper mill in Staten Island. Not only will this allow ing new ones to handle higher volumes of organic waste.
Manhattan to collect and transport its own recyclables for the first time, it will also eliminate nearly 14,000 truck Onsite food waste processing trips per year to the Bronx and New Jersey. Large-scale AD facilities are central to processing the city's organic waste, but not all of the waste needs to be Construction of the Gansevoort Station will also allow picked up for processing. Where enough of it is gener-the City to convert Manhattan's West 59th Street Marine ated in one place, it can be processed locally. Technolo-Transfer Station to the borough's only construction and gies to do so are available and large waste generators demolition transfer facility. This will make it possible for like produce markets could be possible candidates for C&D waste to leave Manhattan by barge instead of by piloting on-site processing of food waste.
truck, which is how the 400,000 tons of waste generated by construction activities in Manhattan leave the bor- Waste conversion ough today.
Fully capturing the abatement potential of waste conver-Anaerobic digestion sion through plasma gasification or other comparable technologies would require constructing a network of Anaerobic digestion would have to play a major role in facilities throughout the city - but a pilot would have to capturing the abatement potential of organic waste - but be developed first. A small-scale advanced conversion no dedicated facilities are yet available anywhere near technology facility could serve as a proof concept for New York City. The closest major organics processing New York City, making it possible to test the economics SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I SoldWat of the project, potentially integrate it into local heating systems, and develop it into a blueprint that could later be used citywide.
Strategy 5 Improving Solid Waste Transportation Transportation only represents a small proportion of sol-id waste emissions, but opportunities to improve it do exist for both municipal and commercial fleets.
Biofuel use in City waste fleets The Department of Sanitation has pioneered the use of biodiesel in its fleets and over time this practice has been adopted across agencies. All diesel-powered City vehicles now utilize a 5 percent blend of biodiesel (B5) and as of 2016, these vehicles will be required to use B20 between the months of April and November. Expanding to higher concentrations of biodiesel in City fleets would present an opportunity to "close the loop" in solid waste management because biodiesel can be processed from waste cooking oil and agricultural by-products at local facilities.
Modernization of private waste fleets Many of the city's more than 200 commercial carters operate trucks that are over 15 years old and inefficient compared to newer models. Carters will gradually re-place their trucks with models that comply with recent federal fuel efficiency standards - but the process could be accelerated through a mixture of requirements and in-centives, helping reduce not only carbon emissions, but also emissions of airborne pollutants, which would have a direct positive impact on public health.
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1111111 I cnm icAayi Abatement Cost-Effectiveness As described in the preceding chapters, reaching 80 by 50 would require a portfolio of actions to reduce carbon across I Abatement
% of total; Metric Potential tons Co-eby Cost per Ton all sectors, year in and year out. Many of these measures would come with an incremental cost or need for upfront in- 2020 7%120%
vestment. However, as long as measures are timed to coin-cide with natural replacement and retrofit cycles, the majority 20301 %113 would more than pay for themselves because of savings in energy consumption, solid waste export fees or other op-erational expenditures. At a 4 percent discount rate, these 205 1 27% 18 measures would be beneficial from a societal standpoint or, in other words, they would have a "negative-cost." *<$o/tCO2e In 2030, for example, nearly 80 percent of carbon abatement >So and <$100/tCO2e measures are estimated to be cost-negative. Another 8 per- Source: NYCMayor's Office M >100/tCO2e cent of measures would cost less than $100/ton, and only 12 percent cost more than $100/ton. As 2050 approaches, more Ranking abatement measures by their cost effectiveness on expensive measures would eventually need to be implement- a marginal abatement cost curve demonstrates a theoretical ed to achieve an 80 percent reduction, but overall, two-thirds pathway to reach 80 by 50. The lower cost abatement mea-of measures would be cost-negative. sures like plug load reduction and lighting upgrades-appear-ing on the left hand side of the abatement curve-are tapped The cost effectiveness of abatement measures would vary first and consistently over time as more and more buildings significantly by sector. In the solid waste sector, for example, replace their equipment on a natural time cycle. In contrast, 100 percent of measures would be cost-negative because more expensive measures like electrifying heating systems or the fees that the City and private companies currently pay for building out large-scale renewable energy resources are de-waste export are so high and diverting waste to recycling and layed until later years when technology costs fall and other composting is nearly guaranteed to save money. Likewise, abatement options becomes scarce enough that capturing over 80 percent of abatement measures in buildings would this potential becomes necessary. (See graphics: Emissions be cost-negative because savings from reduced energy con- Abatement Potentialby Year) sumption would typically exceed upfront costs.
In the power sector, however, approximately 95 percent of measures would cost above $100/ton.19 This does not include I %2030 Abatement of sectoral abatement: CostsMetric By Sector ton CO e behind-the-meter technologies such as solar PV, which are Bllilcling, 145 assumed to enter the market on an economic basis (e.g. at grid parity). Large-scale renewables might reduce the need for fossil fuels in electricity production, but the amount of up-front capital investment they would require would exceed any 95 1.8 savings over time. Nevertheless, achieving 80 by 50 without cleaning up the electric grid would be nearly impossible. But Trartspuitaticir 3.5 at the same time it is essential to reduce electricity demand as much as possible in order to reduce the amount of clean power generation that would need to be built and therefore to Sdid ivaste 2.9 minimize costs. (See chart: 2030 Abatement Costs by Sector)
Wt*
- 0rd$0/C~
- /C~
- does not include behind the meter technologies Source: NYCMayor's Office M NYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
,I Ecnmi I MtCo~e Emissions Abatement Potential; 2020 U Solid waste M Transport Off shore wind Power 300 Solar thermal M Buildings 200 Hydropower 100 0
is 40 45 100 Waste conversion Building facades 200 RetcyclIminrg P owerit ra Irimprove merits 300 400
-500 Demand reduc~tion
-600 I Centralto systems Conversion gab and lighting 700 Plug load reduction B00 I MtCo e Emissions Abatement Potential; 2030 M Solid waste a Transport Power 300 Ott-shore wind I Buildings 200 Solar thermi;!
Hydropower 100 35 40 45
-100 Buligfacades Organic waste processing
-200 Alternative fuels Waste conversion 300 Powertrainmproveients
-400 Pecyctng
-500 Central systems and lighting
-60o
-700 IN Demand reductioln Plug load reduction
-0o0 Conversion to gas I Emissions MtCo~e Abatement Potential; 2050
- Solidwaste N Transport Powet Buildings electrilrratior, I Buildings 200 100 Off shore wind Hydropower I Alternative fuels 0
40 45
-100 I Solar thermal 200 Building facades Organic waste processng
-300 Recycling Waste conversion 400 000
-600 Conversion to pas Central systems and lighting
-700 Solar PV
-00d
-900 Plog load redortion Source: NYC Mayor's Office
I1 Ecnmc nl Changes to Capital and Operational Expenditure Flows I $Changes billions to Annual Capital Investment Flows by Sector 8,3 To achieve 80 by 50 would require billions of dollars of incre- I Solid waste mental capital investment. Over the next twenty years, the N Transportation majority of this incremental investment would go towards en- Power ergy efficiency retrofits inbuildings. Investments in clean power
- Buildings 6.2 would ramp up after 2030, while incremental spending on more 5.3 m 4.6 efficient and less polluting transportation would be smaller but 4.8 1.9 steady throughout the next several decades. The effect of these investments would be felt in the near term as buildings begin to utilize less electicity natural gas and liquid fuels, and as ve- 0.8 27 0 hicles become more efficient. As a result, annual savings on op- -0.2 erational expenditures (opex) would exceed the required annual capital investments by 2020. By the 2030s, the annual savings would equal more than $6 billion a year. (See chart: Changesin Annual CapitalSpending and Opex) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 The amount of capital investments required - $1billion a year in Source: NYCMayor's Office 2015 and scaling up to more than $4 billion a year by the 2030s-is comparable to the entire capital investment programs of Con Edison or the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), Changes to Annual Opex Flows by Sector under 80 by 50 BAU the city's water and sewer utility. However, the number needs to $ billionsW be seen inthe context of citywide investments that occur every
- Solid waste year in the course of normal construction and activity. In2012, 183 E Transportation foDr example, more than $30 billion was spent on construction in Power 164 Niew York City;, an additional $4 billion a year would represent 13 N Buildings 146 peercent of this amount. 13 0 1 I Changes in Annual Capital Spending and Opex
$ billions; net difference in bold 1O2 I
II M*Capex spending 6.7 NOpex savings 3.7
- 0. -1. :W2015 KIEIIII 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: NYCMayor 's Office
-8.2
-10 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: NYCMayor's Office MNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Ecnmi nayi I Changes to Energy Demand on the 80 by 50 Pathway vs. BAU Indexed to 201o
-Business as usual
. 80x5o pathway
- - Box 5o pathway with Electricity Gasoline building electrification 140 +33% 140 120 120 10 0 - ------------------- ---------- 100 80- 80 -
60
-36% 60-
-35%
40 40 20 20 -73%
0 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas Oil 140 +28% 140 120 , 120 100-- -- - - -- - - -- - - - - - - - - - - 100 80 S - 80 N -21%
60 -27% 60 40 40 20 20
-79%
0 -90% 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: NYCMayor's Office Changes to Energy Demand Reductions in energy demand would be the primary percent reduction from today's levels by 2050. Natural driver of operational savings in the economy. Electricity gas demand would first increase to accommodate build-demand would initially drop as buildings become more ings moving away from heavy fuel oils and then gradu-efficient, but recover partially as vehicles (and potentially ally drop as investment in energy efficiency grows. The building heating systems) electrify. By 2050, electricity extent of declining natural gas demand by 2050 would demand would be 12 to 36 percent below 2012 levels depend on how widespread electrification of buildings is, depending on how many buildings electrify. Gasoline but it would exceed 25 percent and could be much high-demand is expected to drop even under the business er. Demand for heating oil is also expected to drop in the as usual case because of aggressive federal standards business as usual (BAU) case because of the current pac-to improve automobile efficiency-Corporate Average ing of oil-to-gas conversions, as well as the competitive Fuel Economy or CAFE standards. On the 80 by 50 path- economics of natural gas, but demand reductions could way, gasoline demand would decline even faster due to exceed 70 percent by 2050 on the abatement pathway.
an accelerated switch to electric vehicles, reaching a 73 (See chart: Changes to Energy Demand on the 80 by 50 pathway vs. BAU)
Ecno i Anlyi I Thousands; Employment Impacts by type by Type of impact I Thousands Jobs Created Through Capital Expenditure, by Sector 25 - Net impact 9 Long term shift incompetitiveness
- Waste U Capital expenditures 8 E Transportation 20 U Opportunity cost of local spending
- Buildings 7 Power 15 6 5
10 4
5 3
2 0
1
-5 0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: NYCMayor's Office Source: NYCMayor's Office Impact on Local Economy losses in other sectors, the resulting energy savings from The changes to the patterns of capital investment and op- capital investments would have enough of an impact on the erational expenditures would impact the economy directly: economy's production costs to create thousands of net-new jobs would be created in some sectors and lost in others, jobs over the next two decades. (See chart: Employment personal income would increase, and gross regional product Impacts by Type) would grow. The economic impact, only estimated through 2030 due to the level of uncertainty past that date, would Capital expenditures in buildings would play the most im-occur via three main channels: portant role in the creation of jobs, contributing between 60 and 80 percent of all the new jobs. Power investments
- Direct impact of capital expenditures: Capital invest- would account for most of the remaining job benefits, ment directly creating jobs in construction and related with solar PV installations contributing the most and off-sectors shore wind playing a role as well. The employment im-
" Opportunity cost of local spending: The diversion of pact of transportation and solid waste measures would spending from other sectors to pay for the investment be negligible. (See chart: Jobs Created Through Capital in (1) leads to negative economic impacts in other sec- Expenditure, by Sector) tors of the economy
" Long-term shift in competitiveness: Decrease in en- Gross regional product (GRP) - or the measure of the ergy use resulting from capital investment helps to strength of the region's economy - would benefit as well.
lower production costs and make the economy more By 2030, GRP would increase by nearly $1.9 billion a year.
competitive in the long term Investments in buildings, again, would provide the greatest contribution. Investments in cleaner power, on the other The jobs impact from the combination of these three chan- hand, would lead to losses because of its relatively higher nels would be positive: by 2030, the 80 by 50 pathway could costs. Personal income levels would experience similar ef-create up to 18,000 jobs - mainly because the economy fects, with cost savings from using less energy more than would become more competitive. While the direct job cre- offsetting the higher prices consumers would pay for clean-ation spurred by capital investment would be offset by er energy - leading to a net increase in income of $2.2 bil-lion a year by 2030.
MNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
Economic Disruptions of Carbon Abatement Impact on Energy Sector Jobs would still have to maintain its natural gas grid, though de-mand for natural gas would likely fall off because of energy Every year, New Yorkers spend almost $30 billion on energy efficiency and building electrification. Businesses serving
- approximately $11 billion on electricity, $10 billion on natu- the gasoline marketplace - 4,400 jobs in all - would likely ral gas and liquid fuels in buildings, and $8 billion on trans- feel the Impact of decarbonizatlon the most. Some of these portation fuels. Part of this spending goes towards the ex- businesses would reorient their services (gas stations, for traction and refining of fossil fuels, which takes place outside example, could add EV charging); some would go out of of New York Cit, but other parts support local jobs- 20,000 business.
in total, or 0.2 percent of the city's total 2011 private sector employment of 3.1 million. More than half of these jobs are in electricity distribution (primarily Con Edison); the rest are Impact on Lower Income Residents and Energy in naurlgas dsrbuin fuel ditibto, and retai gaso- Intensive Businesses line operations (See chart: Energy Sector Employment In Pursuing 80 by 50 could also have equity implications: total New York City). energy costs might drop for the city overall, but electrcity prices would Increase, affecting energy intensive manufac-On the 80 by 50 pathway, the 12,500 jobs in power transmis-turing and residents who live on fixed income or low wages.
sion and would berelatvely unaffected. Thecity Both cases would call for some form of assistance - and the would still have to malntain its electrical grid regardless of necessary programs may already exist.
changes to either demand or the carbon intensity of electric-it The 500 jobs inpower generation would be unaffected Manufacturing no longer accounts for as many New York by 2030 - gas-fired power plants would still be playing a City jobs as it used to- but Industrial companies still employ prominent role - but by 2050, the importance of gas-fired tens of thousands of New Yorkers. These companies would gwould decline, and at least some of those jobs stand to benefit less from energy efficiency than, for exam-would likely shift to other power generation technologies.
The 2,300 jobs in natural gas distribution would remain rel-pie, office buildings. Two existing programs administered by the New York City Economic Development Corporation, atively unaffected as well - just as with electricity, the city BIR (the Business Incentive Rate), and NYCPUS the New Energy Sector Employment in New York City York City Public Utility Service), have for years been provid-ing discounts and rebates of up to 20 percent to local manu-Thousands: based on NAICS-6 classification; 2011 facturers. These and similar programs could be used tohp energy intnsv buiese miigt th Imat of hge 14 electricity prices rltdt eabnzto in ordrtomain-13 1;>:
tain competitiveness of local As 12 previously, decarbonization would ideally occurat a national 11 or at least regional scale in order to level the playing field, 10 so that New York City's industries are not disproportionately 9 impacted.
8 7 city residents that live on fixed incomes or low wages could 6 benefit from energy effici meay if they were able 5
to partake in them, but practical obstacles could limit up-
- 14. take and help would be required to mitigate cost of living 4
1.4 Fuel dealers Impacts. NYSERDA's EmPower New York program provides 3
income-elIgible New Yorkers with energy efficiency services 2
3.0 Gas stations forno cost, while the NewYorkState of 1
and Community Renewal provides free and low-cost weath-0 erization services through its network of contractors. The Electricity Natural gas Refined federalfUldd L Iy distribution prooducts Source: Bureau of Labor Stat istics; Mayor's Office NYC costs of home heating. These programs could bet to help residents cope with higher power prices that result from switching to a lower carbon grid.
0 I A
Next Steps Vi $1IfIIl
I Next Steps I Metric GHG Emissions tons Co e; %Pathways reduction vs. 2005 in a give year
- Historic Reduction 50 -
- - 30x3o Pathway
-- 8ox5o Pathway 40 - 0 30 -
20 -
10 -
0-2005 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: NYCMayor's Office Even though the exact shape of a low-carbon city is un-certain today - and the 80 by 50 goal itself may well be I Citywide MtCOze CO e Emissions Reduction Summary too aggressive for a relatively efficient city like New York
- the city has both the tools and the momentum to ac- -------------- - - -- 414---3 celerate carbon reduction efforts this decade. As the city 55 is now close to two-thirds of the way to the PlaNYC 30 5ff percent greenhouse gas reduction goal, it could consider accelerating the target date for reaching the goal, from 45 2030 to 2020. Doing so could put New York City on a 40 6 51 trajectory to achieve 80 by 50 while maintaining focus on what is achievable today.
30 To reach a 30 percent reduction, emissions would need to fall another 6.4 million tons below 2012 levels. If the City aggressively implements and strategically expands several existing initiatives it could achieve the 6.4 mil-lion ton reduction within this decade. These reduction actions are focused on the buildings, transportation and waste sectors. Given the long-lead times and expense of projects it is not assumed that any major abatements e2ý(005f v~o (020 2 00 fons Addtlitoff0 file 2030 C02e target will accrue from the power sector. However, several redwftfons jibmoed edurtions edued promising near-term opportunities exist and could be pursued in tandem with the hope of providing an Source: NYCMayor's Office SNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
NetStp additional buffer to achieve 30 by 20. The following sec- create jobs. Converting to cleaner fuels in buildings and tion briefly describes these possible efforts. electrifying or using biodiesel in vehicles will improve air quality. And diverting waste from landfills will save Achieving 30 by 20 will require tremendous effort and city residents and businesses on waste export costs and consistent reductions of 2 percent per year through the could promote local industries. These and other mea-end of the decade. This will not be easy, but New Yorkers sures could reinforce and strengthen New York City's stand to gain along the way. Reducing energy consump- global leadership in responding to climate change, while tion in buildings will lower operational expenses and making the city more competitive, livable, and resilient.
GHG Reduction Potential of Existing and New Policies Sector and GHG reduction potential Sector and measure GHG reduction potential I Energy code tightening and enforcement II Power reductions could 2 Oil to gas conversions 10 contribute another 1.5 Mt 3.0 Mt total Mayor's Carbon Challenge 0.5 City government energy efficiency 0.5 04 Organic waste - anaerobic digestion 04 o.6 Mt X
L.LJ total 40 Expanded recycling 0.2 1/3 taxi electrification 0-
<0.1 0.3 Mt Biofuels for City fleet total Citywide vehicle electrification 02
- Buildings energy efficiency accelerator 13 1 Biofuels for building fuels 0.9 2.5 Mt total I Carbon Challenge expansion 0.3 Total captured 64 Power, not counted towards main reductions, would add 1.5 MT 1 Canadian hydro 1.10
" Work with NYPA and State to accelerate pilot Offshore wind 0.24 project 2 350 MW Solar buildout o.18 " Reform solar interconnect rules and incentives 3 300 MW Total: 1.5 Mt Source: NYCMayor's Office
Emissions Abatement and Climate Resiliency Even as the City works to reduce greenhouse gas emis- Distributed generation systems allow customers to pro-sions, the climate is still changing, and the climate risks duce their own electricity - including when the grid is that the city has always faced are becoming worse. How- down. Properly installed combined heat and power sys-ever, the very strategies that help reduce emissions can tems and fuel cells - both running on natural gas - can also make the city more resilient. supply buildings with enough electricity to operate nor-mally even ifthe electric grid is completely down. Smaller Storm surges and heat waves are the two most impor- scale distributed generation systems - primarily rooftop-tant climate risks for New York City. Both struck in recent mounted solar panels - usually cannot cover a build-years, and both affected the city's energy infrastructure: ing's electricity needs during an outage, but if properly Hurricane Sandy left 800,000 customers in the dark and installed, they could provide enough energy to operate devastated liquid fuels supply infrastructure in 2012, Hur- at least several lights and power outlets in a typical one ricane Irene came close to shutting down the electric grid or two-family home.
in 2011, and intense heat waves led to highest-ever pe-riods of peak demand in the summers of 2012 and 2013 Electric vehicles lessen the city's dependence on liquid
- though the electric grid held up relatively well in both fuels for mobility at the cost of greater reliance on the cases. electric grid - but the electric grid is generally more reli-able in the face of storm surges than the liquid fuels infra-These risks will intensify: according to the New York City structure is. They also make it possible to provide power Panel on Climate Change, a scientific advisory body that to one or two-family homes during power outages: a fully Mayor Bloomberg originally convened in 2008, by the charged EV with a 26 kwh battery could power a one or 2050s, sea levels around New York City could rise by as two-family home for at least a day, as long as the home is much as 2.5 feet, and heat waves would become a far pre-wired to be able to connect to the vehicle. In the next more regular occurrence, with more than 50 days every few years, once the necessary interconnection standards year above 90 0 F,compared to less than 20 today. are developed, EVs might also be able to help shave peak load, feeding their stored energy back into the grid dur-In this context, any strategy that reduces emissions by ing periods of high demand.
reducing energy demand and diversifying its sources can help make the city more resilient to storm surge and heat These and other strategies are discussed in detail in the wave-related disruptions to energy supply infrastructure. context of resiliency in PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resil-Measures that advance building energy efficiency, pro- ient New York, a 438-page report that Mayor Bloomberg mote distributed generation, and increase the penetra- launched in the aftermath of Sandy and released on June tion of electric vehicles help do just that. 11, 2013. The report puts forward more than 200 initia-tives to protect New York City's residents, buildings, and Building energy efficiency measures reduce baseline infrastructure from climate threats today and in the fu-electricity demand - and that alleviates the strain on the ture and is available online at nyc.gov/resiliency.
electric grid during periods of high demand that occur during heat waves. To mitigate the consequences of heat waves, utilities rely on programs that pay large custom-ers to reduce their demand if necessary (called demand response), but an 8 percent reduction in citywide elec-tricity demand achieved through energy efficiency would provide double the demand reduction available through demand response programs today and obviate the need for hundreds of millions of dollars in spending to upgrade the electric distribution system that would otherwise be required. An additional benefit of energy efficiency is that if outages do occur, more efficient buildings can remain comfortably habitable longer because it takes longer for them to heat up in summer or cool down in winter. S
I ~g Apedie Appendix: Assumptions Assumptions used to evaluate the emissions reduction reductions from the Greener, Greater Buildings Plan and potential throughout this study include the following in- the Green Codes Task Force were not taken into account.
formation below.
Buildings Population and economy Population growth drove an increase in residential square footage from 3.6 billion sq ft in 2010, and is expected to Population, employment, and GDP growth figures were rise to 3.9 billion sq ft in 2030. By holding the 2010 sq taken from the New York Metropolitan Transportation ft per capita figure constant, a 2050 square footage of Council (NYMTC) forecasts for 2010-2030 and 2031-2040. 4.1 billion sq. ft. is projected. For nonresidential square This information was proportionally adapted to forecast footage, holding the 2010 figure of 1.8 billion sq ft con-figures through 2050. On average: population growth stant, square footage for 2030 and 2050 is projected for increases at 0.4 percent annually; employment increas- increases of 1.9 billion and 2.1 billion sq ft, respectively.
es at 0.8 percent annually; and GDP grows at 3 percent annually. Although building stock is divided into low and high rise categories, new growth was evenly allocated between Energy consumption the two groups. For low rise buildings, an additional im-According to Consolidated Edison, Inc. Annual Energy pact of demolition is included; 0.6 percent of buildings Outlook, annual energy demand grows by 0.7 percent are demolished annually, which translates into an aver-for electricity, 0.7 percent for natural gas, 0.1 percent a age building lifetime of less than 150 years. With the oc-year for steam, and -0.8 percent a year for oil. 2031-2050 currence of low rise demolitions, the 2050 share of high growth across energy sources is driven by growth in rise buildings increases.
residential and nonresidential floor space, or residential compound annual growth (CAGR) of 0.3 percent and non- Climate change residential CAGR of 0.4 percent. According to the New York City Panel on Climate Change, average temperatures may rise up to 3 degrees Fahren-Energy consumption figures for the report presumes heit by 2050.
no new energy efficiency policies, programs, nor use of current technologies. Additionally, GHG emissions Other Other analysis includes the following assumptions:
- Waste per capita remains constant, according to the New York City Mayor's Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability (OLTPS).
- NYMTC forecasts also include an increase in vehicle miles traveled by 17 percent.
- All non-City measures currently in place take effect, such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, electricity grid upgrades, and transit sys-tem upgrades from the NYMTC Regional Transporta-tion Plan.
MNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
I Appedics Endnotes
- 1. Compared to 2005 levels. 4. In the energy sector, fugitive emissions are mostly
- 2. RCPs, or Representative Concentration Pathways, caused by methane escaping from gas pipelines and are an evolution of the IPCC's approach to forecast- by sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)-a highly potent GHG ing emissions. Instead of trying to develop emis- that utilities used for insulation in the past--leaking sions scenarios from economic and social ones, the from electric equipment.
RCP approach develops carbon pathways first; from 5. Scope 1 and 2 only.
those, economic and social scenario combinations 6. Although it is possible to assess these impacts can be derived if necessary. through 2050, the usefulness of this analysis is lim-
- 3. 2010, an EU nonprofit had already set a precedent ited by the very long time horizon, which becomes for releasing a comprehensive study of this type: more of a constraint in economic modeling than in Roadmap 2050, a report funded by the European the estimation of technical reduction potential.
Climate Foundation, analyzed the technical potential 7. Full abatement potential would be achieved by 2050, and costs of deep union-wide emissions reductions, but unless otherwise noted cost per ton is for 2030 with a particular focus on the energy sector. In 2013, given greater cost uncertainty in the outer years.
a study by Urban Green Council, the New York Chap-ter of the U.S. Green Buildings Council called "90x50" 8. Cost per ton value shown is for 2050, since heat examined the technical potential for deep carbon re- pumps do not play a significant abatement role in ductions in New York City, focusing most heavily on 2050.
buildings and finding that even with existing technol- 9. The potential for having GSHPs replace cooling loads ogy, such reductions indeed appear possible in the was not estimated given the added costs of integrat-long term. Also in 2013, a study by the International ing them into building cooling systems - particularly Energy Agency drew renewed attention to the issue if cooling is provided by packaged terminal air con-at the global level by suggesting that targeted en- ditioners (PTACs) installed directly in windows and ergy efficiency measures, partial phase-out of coal- walls.
fired power plants, reduction in fugitive emissions
- 10. In the Bronx and in Manhattan, the forecast adoption from fossil fuel production, and a partial phase-out of rates could be 15 percent and 10 percent respec-fossil fuel subsidies could stop the growth in world-tively, mostly from standing column systems serving wide emissions by 2020 at no net cost to the global low-rise buildings. In Staten Island, the rate could be economy.
higher: 25 percent served by open loop and standing "ROADMAP 2050." Roadmap 2050. N.p., n.d. Web. column systems. In Queens and Brooklyn, the rates 31 Dec. 2013. <http://www.roadmap2050.eu/projectV could be up to 35 percent and limited only by the roadmap-2050#>. need to balance heat extracted from the aquifer in "90 By 50: NYC Can Reduce its Carbon Footprint 90% winter and returned for cooling in summer.
By 2050." Urban Green Council. Urban Green Coun- 11. Approximately 50 percent of New York City's build-cil, 14 Feb. 2013. Web. 31 Dec. 2013. <http://www. ings use steam radiators for heat, with the balance urbangreencouncil.org/servlet/servlet.FileDownload being hydronic, forced air, and electric window units.
?file=01 5UOOOOOOOnD3r>. Air source heat pumps can integrate with most hy-
"Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map." World Energy dronic and forced air heating systems at a negligible Outlook Special Report. N.p., 10 June 2013. Web. cost. Integration with steam radiators is prohibitively 31 Dec. 2013. <http://www.worldenergyoutlook. expensive, but it can be bypassed at least in residen-org/media/weowebsite/2013/energyclimatemap/Re- tial applications through replacing PTACs directly, drawingEnergyClimateMap.pdf>. where ASHPs - unlike GSHPs - could provide cooling as well for no added cost.
- 12. 2050 cost.
Appendic
- 13. A 20 MW Goteborg Energi facility in Sweden is under construction, a 12 MW unit sponsored by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands is in planning, and a 200 MW plant by E.ON, also in Sweden, is tar-geted for a 2015 completion.
- 14. This number does not take into account the impact of shifting car passengers onto trains, which is was beyond the scope of this exercise.
- 15. "Congestion Pricing: A Primer." Federal Highway Ad-ministration Publications. U.S. Department of Trans-portation Federal Highway Administration, n.d. Web.
31 Dec. 2013. <http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/
congestionpricing/congestionpricing.pdf>.
- 16. "Opportunities for Reducing Surface Emissions Through Surface Movement Optimization." Techni-cal Report #: ICAT-2008-7. MIT International Center for Air Transportation (ICAT) Department of Aeronau-tics & Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Tech-nology, n.d. Web. 31 Dec. 2013. <http://dspace.mit.
edu/bitstream/handle/1 721.1/66491 /Balakrishnan-ICAT-2008-07.pdfsequence=l >.
- 17. Residential waste is at least 41 percent recyclable and 40 percent compostable
- 18. Excludes fill.
- 19. This does not include solar energy, which is consid-ered a demand-side or building sector measure.
MNYC's Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions
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