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Kld TR-534, Rev. 1, Robinson Nuclear Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 5
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Site:	Robinson
Issue date:	12/07/2012
From:	Baker N K; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; Carolina Power & Light Co, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Progress Energy Carolinas
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	RNP-RA/12-0136 KLD TR-534, Rev 1
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6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating zones that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.

Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A description of each scenario is provided below: 1. Summer Midweek Midday (good weather):

This scenario represents a typical good weather daytime period when permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical summer daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; summer school is in session; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average summer levels; and recreational facilities are at average summer daytime levels.2. Summer Midweek Midday (rain): This scenario represents an adverse weather (rainy) daytime period when permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical summer daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; summer schools are in session; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average summer levels; and recreational facilities are at average summer daytime levels.3. Summer Weekend Midday (good weather):

This scenario represents a typical good weather weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ performing typical summer weekend activities.

This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home or with their families; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average summer weekend levels; and recreational facilities are at average summer weekend levels.4. Summer Weekend Midday (rain): This scenario represents a typical adverse weather (rainy) weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ performing typical summer weekend activities.

This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home or with their families; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average Robinson Nuclear Plant 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 summer weekend levels.5. Summer Midweek and Weekend Evening (good): This scenario represents a typical good weather midweek or weekend evening period when permanent residents are generally at home with fewer dispersed within the EPZ performing evening activities.

This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical evening levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average summer evening levels; and recreational facilities are at average summer evening levels. External traffic is reduced.6. Winter Midweek Midday (good): This scenario represents a typical good weather weekday period during the winter when school is in session arid the work force is at a full daytime level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; students will evacuate directly from the schools; work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter levels; and recreational facilities are at winter daytime levels.7. Winter Midweek Midday (rain): This scenario represents an adverse weather (rainy)weekday period during the winter when school is in session and the work force is at a full daytime level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; students will evacuate directly from the schools; work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter levels; and recreational facilities are at winter daytime levels.8. Winter Midweek Midday (snow): This scenario represents an adverse weather (snowy) weekday period during the winter when school is in session and the work force is at a full daytime level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; students will evacuate directly from the schools; work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter levels; and recreational facilities are at winter daytime levels.9. Winter Weekend Midday (good): This scenario reflects a typical good weather winter weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ, and the work force is at a winter weekend level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter weekend levels and recreational facilities are at winter weekend levels.10. Winter Weekend Midday (rain): This scenario reflects an adverse weather (rainy)winter weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ, and the work force is at a winter weekend level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical Robinson Nuclear Plant 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 weekend levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter weekend levels and recreational facilities are at winter weekend levels.11. Winter Weekend Midday (snow): This scenario reflects an adverse weather (snowy)winter weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ, and the work force is at a winter weekend level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter weekend levels and recreational facilities are at winter weekend levels.12. Winter Midweek and Weekend Evening (good): This scenario reflects a typical good weather, winter midweek or weekend evening period when permanent residents are home and the work force is at a nighttime level. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical nighttime levels;hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter levels; and recreational facilities are at winter evening levels.13. Special Events (good): This scenario reflects a major NASCAR race weekend (second weekend in May) when there are peak tourist populations present within the EPZ.Schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at peak special event levels;and recreational facilities are at appropriate levels based on the time of year.14. Roadway Impact Midweek Midday (good): This represents a summer scenario when one section of SR 151 is closed in the southbound direction, during a good weather daytime period when permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; summer school is in session; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average summer levels; and recreational facilities are at average summer daytime levels.A total of 32 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of zones considered.

These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The zones' configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

The central sector coincides with the wind direction.

These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (Regions R04 through RIO) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions R21 through R24).Regions RO1, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.

Regions R02 and R04 through RIO are identical to Regions R32, and R25 through R31, respectively; however, those zones between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (Region RO2) has evacuated.

A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 32 x 14= 448 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 provides a description'of all Scenarios.

Robinson Nuclear Plant 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.

Table 6-3 presents the percentage of each population group estimated to evacuate for each scenario.Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 -the entire EPZ.The population and vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case.The scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows: The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to the product of 48% (the number of households with at least one commuter) and 55%(the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating).

See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is assumed to be at its peak during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.

Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

This is based on the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is further estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak during summer weekends and less (40%) during the week. As shown in Appendix E, lodging is the primary source of transient activity offering overnight accommodations in the EPZ; thus, transient activity is estimated to be high during evening hours -100% for summer and 50% for winter. Transient activity on winter weekends is estimated to be 40%.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: 20% x 1+ 2,66821 20 x 5,046 + 14,143)One special event -NASCAR Race at Darlington Raceway -was considered as Scenario 13.Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.

It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the Robinson Nuclear Plant 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.

As discussed in Section 7, schools are in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.

Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Zone Region Description Wind Direction From: (Degrees)A-2 B-1 B-2 C-1 C-2 D-1 D-2I E-i E-2 Region wind Direction From: Wind Direction From: (Degrees)I I A-i1 A-2 IB-1I B-2 IC-iL I C-2 ID-i I D-2 IE-iL E-2 R18 North > 328 -<= 015 R19 Northeast

> 015 -<= 078 R20 East > 078 -<= 112 R21 Southeast

> 112 -<=157 R22 South > 157 -<= 202 (R22) Southwest

> 202 -<= 247 R23 West > 247 -<= 292 R24 Northwest

> 292 -<= 328 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Region Wind Direction From: Wind Direction From: (Degrees)

A-O A-i Zone R25 North > 328 -<= 015 R26 Northeast

> 015 -<= 078 R27 East > 078 -<= 112 R28 Southeast

> 112 -<=157 R29 South > 157 -<= 202 (R29) Southwest

> 202 -<= 247 R30 West > 247 -<= 292 R31 Northwest

> 292 -<= 328 A-2 B-i B-2 C-2 D-2 E-2 Zone(s) Shelter-in-P R32 5-Mile Ring N/A lace I I I I I I Note: Regions that are repeated for a different wind direction are written in parentheses Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 6-1. RNP Zones Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None Midweek, 5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None Midweek, 12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None 13 Winter Weekend Midday Good Darlington NASCAR Race Roadway Impact-Roadway Closure on SR 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good 151 Southbound 1 Winter means that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is not in session.6-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios Reunn Reunn Speia Scoo Trni Thrug Sceari Cmmuers Comutrs mpoyes Taniens Sadw Eent Bses Buss raf 0 1 26%74%96%60%23%0%10%100%100%2 26% 74% 96% 60% 23% 0% 10% 100% 100%3 3% 97% 10% 70% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%4 3% 97% 10% 70% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%5 3% 97% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 100% 40%6 26% 74% 100% 20% 23% 0% 100% 100% 100%7 26% 74% 100% 20% 23% 0% 100% 100% 100%8 26% 74% 100% 20% 23% 0% 100% 100% 100%9 3% 97% 10% 40% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 3% 97% 10% 40% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 3% 97% 10% 40% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 3% 97% 10% 50% 20% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 3% 97% 10% 40% 20% 100% 0% 100% 100%14 26% 74% 96% 60% 23% 0% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters

....... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters

..Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees

..................................................

EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients

..................................................

People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow ......................................................

Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.

The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Events ............................................

Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special event.School and Transit Buses ............................

Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic .............................

Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.

This traffic is stopped by access control approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months after the evacuation begins.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 1 5,046 14,143 2,668 74 2,184 -52 86 11,216 35,469 2 5,046 14,143 2,668 74 2,184 -52 86 11,216 35,469 3 505 18,684 278 86 1,945 --86 11,216 32,800 4 505 18,684 278 86 1,945 -86 11,216 32,800 5 505 18,684 278 123 1,945 --86 4,486 26,107 6 5,046 14,143 2,779 25 2,195 -524 86 11,216 36,014 7 5,046 14,143 2,779 25 2,195 -524 86 11,216 36,014 8 5,046 14,143 2,779 25 2,195 -524 86 11,216 36,014 9 505 18,684 278 49 1,945 --86 11,216 32,763 10 505 18,684 278 49 1,945 --86 11,216 32,763 11 505 18,684 278 49 1,945 --86 11,216 32,763 12 505 18,684 278 62 1,945 --86 4,486 26,046 13 505 18,684 278 49 1,945 15,000 -86 11,216 47,763 14 5,046 14,143 2,668 74 2,184 52 86 11,216 35,469 Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03)Robinson Nuclear Plant 6-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 32 regions within the RNP EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE of the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Shadow

Evacuation"Shadow evacuees" are people within 15 miles of the RNP for which an Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate.

Shadow evacuation is assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the RNP EPZ addresses the issue of shadow evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in zones outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 18,030 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region (including external-external traffic), traveling away from the RNP location, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Zones comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.

2. Zones comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.Robinson Nuclear Plant 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns

of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-7 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

9 Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);* Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, i h, 3 h); and-Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

At 40 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-3 displays the developing congestion in and around Hartsville to the southeast of RNP. Vehicles exiting the EPZ via Old Camden Road meet a stop sign at SR 102 (Patrick Highway), hence that approach is LOS F. There are delays caused by turning traffic at the intersections of US 15 business (Hartsville Highway)with US 15 (N. Marquis Highway) and US 15 (Hartsville Highway) with Dovesville Highway.By 1:00 after the ATE, congestion has intensified, but is still limited to the eastern half of the EPZ (Figure 7-4); all roadways within the western half are LOS D or better. Congestion is evident on SR 151, especially where other roadways intersect it. There is no congestion within 2 miles of the plant.Robinson Nuclear Plant 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 At one hour and 50 minutes after the ATE, there are still some congested roadways at the periphery of the 5-mile region, most notably at the intersections of South 4 th Street and SR 151.Closer to the plant and on the western half of the EPZ, traffic is able to travel at free-flow speed (LOS A). Outside the EPZ there is congestion at the entrances to 1-20, Lamar Highway and US 52, as shown in Figure 7-5.By 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months and 45 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-6, there is only one roadway section within the EPZ with LOS F -the approach to Patrick Highway from Old Camden Road.Over the next five minutes, the remaining congestion in the EPZ clears and only the approach to Hartsville Highway from Old Camden Road and roadways in the vicinity of the Darlington raceway are at LOS F. By 3:30 after the ATE, all network links are at LOS A and the people who take the longest to mobilize can evacuate at free-flow speed.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-8 through Figure 7-21. These figures illustrate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As shown in Figure 7-8, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 32 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. The tables are organized as follows: Robinson Nuclear Plant 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Tabl Cotet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-7.Most of the congestion is located to the east and southeast of the plant in Zones B-1, B-2 and C-2; the most intense congestion is beyond the 5-mile area. This is reflected in the ETE statistics: " The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Regions R01 and R02 (2- and 5-mile areas) are comparable and generally range between 1:55 (hr:min) and 2:10 for good weather cases and between 2:00 and 2:35 for adverse weather cases." The 90th percentile ETE for Regions R03 (full EPZ) and keyhole regions that extend to the EPZ boundary are noticeably longer for those regions including both B-1 and B-2 because of the number of evacuees that originate from Hartsville and converge onto the major evacuation routes.The 100th percentile ETE for all Regions and for all Scenarios are close to the mobilization times.This fact implies that the congestion within the EPZ dissipates prior to the end of mobilization, as is displayed in Figure 7-7.The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for snow cases are generally one hour longer than that for good weather; at the 9 0 th percentile level the difference is closer to 20 minutes. Almost all this increase is due to the longer mobilization time for residents when it is snowing (see Section 5, Figure 5-4).Comparison of Scenarios 9 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -a NASCAR Race at Darlington Raceway -has a small impact on the ETE for the 90th percentile.

There is a consistent increase in ETE for regions including both Zone B-1 and Zone B-2 (R03, R11, R15, R16, R17, R18, R22, R23, and R24), but this trend is also seen in the other scenarios, as noted above and therefore cannot be attributed to the special event. Although the race weekend draws a large number of transients into the area and the evacuation of the additional 15,000 vehicles increases congestion around the raceway and along SR 151, vehicles exiting the EPZ are not delayed sufficiently to impact the 9 0 th and 1 0 0 th percentile ETE. Also note that the trip Robinson Nuclear Plant 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 generation time for transients is shorter than that of residents.

However, when considering the network as a whole, the impact of this event is very significant; the combination of the evacuee and special event vehicles causes congestion in the network for approximately six and a half hours.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -closure of the section of SR 151 southbound between Bethel Road and Faith Road -can increase the 9 0 th percentile ETE by up to 15 minutes for evacuation of the more populous regions. For most regions, however, there is sufficient capacity on neighboring routes to accommodate the evacuating flow.NUREG/CR-7002 recommends that the ETE study consider potential enhancements that could improve ETE. According to the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) timeline for the March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Power Station, nearly 18 hours2.083333e-4 days 0.005 hours 2.97619e-5 weeks 6.849e-6 months elapsed between the loss of power at the site and the first release to the atmosphere.

The 90th percentile ETE for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R02) is less than 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months for all scenarios.

The possible countermeasures to reduce ETE are: " Reduce the number of vehicles on the road by educating the public to use fewer vehicles to evacuate.

This is very difficult to implement as evacuees are unlikely to leave a significant economic asset such as a personal vehicle behind.* Use contraflow or reverse-laning.

This technique is so manpower and equipment intensive, 90 percent of evacuees will have already left the EPZ by the time contraflow is established.

As such, ETE benefits would be minimal. Also, contraflow is a significant liability in that vehicles are traveling the wrong way on a road. Most offsite agencies are hesitant to use contraflow for this reason alone.* Identify special treatments at critical intersections

-i.e. if northbound and eastbound are both viable evacuation directions from the plant, cones and barricades could be used to channelize the intersection such that one traffic stream is directed northbound and the other eastbound to eliminate any vehicle conflict at the intersection and keep the intersection flowing continuously.

This is also manpower and equipment dependent and will have little impact on ETE.No enhancements are recommended for this site. The 90th percentile ETE are significantly less than the elapsed time before a release during the recent nuclear accident in Japan. Significant manpower and equipment would be needed to implement potential enhancements.

The time needed to secure needed personnel and equipment would offset any potential ETE benefits.7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R25 through R32 are the same geographic areas as Regions R04 through RIO and R02, respectively.

To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, one must show that the ETE for the 2 Mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the Robinson Nuclear Plant 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 region between 2 miles and 5 miles. In all cases, as shown in these tables, the 90th percentile ETE for the 2 mile region is unchanged or longer when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the congestion within the 5-mile area does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within 2 miles of the RNP; in fact any congestion within the 5-mile region (comprising of A-0, A-i, B-i, C-i, D-1 and E-1) is limited to the extremities.

Consequently, there is no impedance to evacuees from within the 2-mile area. Therefore, staging the evacuation provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2 mile region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those beyond 2 miles.While failing to provide assistance to evacuees from within 2 miles of the RNP, staging has a significant negative impact on the ETE for those evacuating from within the 5-mile area. A comparison of ETE between R25 through R31 with R04 through RiO and R32 with R02 reveals that staging retards the 9 0 th percentile ETE for those in the 2 to 5-mile area by up to 45 minutes (see Table 7-1). This extending of ETE is due to delaying the beginning of the evacuation trip of those who shelter.Since the 100% mobilization time is considerably longer than the staging time, the 100th percentile ETE is not impacted by staging (see Table 7-2).In summary, the staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefits and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from the RNP.7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 9 0 th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)* Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening* Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow* Special Event" Darlington NASCAR Race" Road Closure (A section of SR 151 SB is closed)* Evacuation Staging Robinson Nuclear Plant 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 U U No, Staged Evacuation is not considered Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

0 The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

from N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below:* 2 Miles (Region R01)* To 5 Miles (Region R02, R04 through RIO)* To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, Ru through R24)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the RNP. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 are labeled with the Scenario numbers. Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1

Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is from the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).

The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 9 0 th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction from the NE (towards the SW) and read Region R19 in the first column of that row.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R19. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R19; it contains the ETE value of 2:-05.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Sum M________

_______ nirwek 2-ieReini5MldRgoenePZk______

Midweek Weekend MdekMidweek Weekend MdekWeekendMiwe Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Rgo Good0 Rain Good1 Ri Good Good0 in So ood Ran So ood pcilRoda Weather Weather Ran Weather Weather Rain So Weather RIn So Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ RO 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:05 R02 2:10 2:15 1:55 2:00 1:50 2:10 2:15 2:35 1:55 2:00 2:20 1:50 1:55 2:10 R03 2:30 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:15 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:30 2:30 2:50 2:15 2:35 2:45 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 2:10 2:15 1:55 2:00 1:50 2:10 2:15 2:35 1:55 2:00 2:20 1:50 1:55 2:10 ROS 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:50 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:50 2:00 2:05 R06 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:05 R07 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:50 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:50 2:00 2:05 R08 2:10 2:15 2:00 2:00 1:50 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:00 2:00 2:20 1:50 2:00 2:10 R09 2:10 2:15 1:55 2:00 1:50 2:10 2:15 2:35 1:55 2:00 2:20 1:50 1:55 2:10 RIO 2:05 2:15 1:55 2:00 1:50 2:10 2:15 2:35 1:55 2:00 2:20 1:50 1:55 2:05 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary (10 miles)R11 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:10 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:15 2:35 2:45 R12 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:05 1:55 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:20 1:55 2:05 2:20 R13 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:00 2:05 2:15 R14 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:10 2:20 2:00 2:05 2:15 1:55 2:00 2:05 R15 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:25 2:10 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:20 2:25 2:45 2:10 2:55 2:40 R16 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:10 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:30 2:50 2:10 2:30 2:45 R17 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:10 2:35 1 2:45 1 3:15 2:25 [ 2:30 2:55 2:15 2:35 2:45 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary (10 miles)R18 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:10 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:10 2:30 2:45 R19 2:10 2:20 2:00 2:05 1:50 2:15 2:20 2:40 2:00 2:05 2:25 1:50 2:00 2:30 R20 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 1:55 2:10 2:20 2:35 2:05 2:05 2:30 1:55 2:05 2:20 R21 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:20 2:35 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:00 2:05 2:15 R22 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:25 2:10 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:20 2:25 2:45 2:10 2:45 2:40 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R23 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:10 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:30 2:50 2:10 2:30 2:45 R24 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:10 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:10 2:30 2:45 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R25 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:50 3:15 2:45 2:50 3:15 2:45 2:45 2:45 R26 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:20 R27 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:35 2:20 2:15 2:15 R28 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:15 R29 2:45 2:50 2:45 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:50 3:10 2:45 2:50 3:10 2:45 2:45 2:45 R30 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45 2:50 2:50 3:15 2:50 2:50 3:15 2:45 2:50 2:45 R31 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:55 3:15 2:50 2:50 3:15 2:45 2:50 2:45 R32 2:40 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:40 2:45 3:00 2:45 2:45 3:00 2:45 2:45 2:40 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Goode Goode Rame inte SnwRint Sno Weather Evente Iumpaer_____Weather Weather Weather Weather IWeather Wahr Eet Ipc________ ______ _____ _______ _____ Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ __________________

ROl 4:15 4:15 4:15 4:15 4:15 4:15 4:15 5:15 4:15 4:15 5:15 4:15 4:15 4:15 R02 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 j5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R03 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 [5:25 j4:25 4:25 5:25 j 4:25 j 4:35 4:50_____ _______2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R05 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R06 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R07 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 ROB 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R09 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 RIO 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20_______ ______ ____2-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary (10 miles) ___111 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:45 R12 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 R13 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 R14 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 RIS 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:35 4:30 R16 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:50 R17 J4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 [4:25 4:25 j5:25 14:25 4:25 5:25 j 4:25 4:25 4:150_______ ____________

_______ -Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary (10 miles) _______________

R18 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:50 R19 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 R20 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 R21 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 R22 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R23 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:45 R24 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 4:25 4:50 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R25 4:25 4:30 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:25 4:25 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:25 R26 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R27 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R28 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R29 4:25 4:30 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 4:30 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:25 R30 4:30 4:30 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 4:30 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 R31 4:30 4:30 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 4:30 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 R32 4:30 4:30 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 4:30 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:30 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer_____ ____ ___ __Mi ___ ntgdwe Evcaioid-Mlwegoe-ileeiok_________

Midweek Weekend ev a Midweek Weekend Keyhole Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scnrio :0 ( 2:0 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00) 2:10 (1:55 (1:55 2:05 Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good0 Ri Good0 Ran oo0 d ood0 R in So Good Ran So oodopcil Roda Weather Ran Weather Ran Weat~her Weather RIn Sno Weather RIn Sno Weather Event Impact Unstaged Evacuation Mile Region 5-Mile Region R01 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:05 R02 2:05 2:05 2:00 2 :05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:101 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 20 2:05 Unstaged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 R05 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:05 R06 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:05 R07 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:05 R08 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 R09 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 RIO 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 2-Miles R12 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:10 2:15 R26 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:05 R27 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:05 R28 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:05 R29 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:10 2:15 R30 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:10 2:15 R31 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:10 2:15 R32 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:15 2:10 2:15 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Weekend eva Midweek Weekend Region Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday R01 14:15 4:15 r4:15 4:15 T4:1514:15 14:15 15:1514:15 4:15 5:1514:1514:151 4:15 R02 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 1 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 s 4:20 4:20 Unstaged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to S-Miles R04 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R05 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R06 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R07 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:15 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 ROS 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R09 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R1O 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles_____

___ _20 R25 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R26 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R27 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R28 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R29 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R30 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R31 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 R32 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 5:20 4:20 4:20 4:20 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions Region Description Wind Direction I From: (Degrees)

A-0 A-i A-2 Zone B-1 I B-2 I C-1 I C-2 I D-I I D-2 I E-X I E-2 I Region Direction From: Wind Direction From: (Degrees)I I A-2 IB-i 1 -2 1C-iL C-2 ID-IL D-2 IE- I E-2 RI8 North > 328 -<= 015 R19 Northeast

> 015 -<= 078 R20 East > 078 -<= 112 R21 Southeast

> 112 -<=157 R22 South > 157 -<= 202 (R22) Southwest

> 202 -<= 247 R23 West > 247 -<= 292 R24 Northwest

> 292 -<= 328 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Region Description Wind Direction Zone From: (Degrees)

A-O B-i C-2 D-i C SRaD Note: Regions that are repeated for a different wind direction are written in parentheses 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Figure 7-1. Shadow Evacuation Methodology Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-2. RNP Shadow Region Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 40 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at I Hour and 50 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours and 45 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%35 30" 25 r20 Io 00~ 15 S10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-8. Evacuation lime Estimates

-Scenario I for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

90% 0 100%35 30.S 25 20-0'A0 15* 10 5 0 zleo-Olop 0 Fur30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240R270n300 Elapsed rime After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-9. Evacuation lI me Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%r LU 0 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Opp, 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ S 90%0 100%35 30 25=-0 20 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

90% 0 100%35 30 25 20 U'0 15-C 10 5 0_0 0 30 6 0 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-12. Evacuation lime Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%C M-us VI 0'i 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 6 0 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed rime After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 6 100%in:E 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0...........-do 000001, V, MW 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%M UC=Eu 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Elapsed rime After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-15. Evacuation rime Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%35 30.E 25 M= Vs S-o Uc 20 LU.0 15* 10 5 0-4 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 35 30.C 25 20:I , U,0 15* 10 5 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%L -4 J 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

90% 0 100%30 25 7 20 15 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

90%

100%30 25'M 20 (U 1 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-19. Evacuation rime Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

90% 0 100%M LU W)35 30 25 20 15 10 5 n 01", V 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%LUC#FA 0:E 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ow Ole_ 000, 0 30 6C 0 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles (buses, vans, ambulances and wheelchair transport vehicles).

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of four population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) students attending schools; (3) residents of medical facilities; and (4)homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

The location of bus depots impacts the time to travel from the bus depots to the facilities being evacuated.

Locations of bus depots were not identified in this study. Rather, the offsite agencies were asked to factor the location of the depots and the distance to the EPZ into the estimate of mobilization time.The current public information disseminated to residents of the Robinson Nuclear Plant EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to relocation centers at emergency classifications of Site Area Emergency or higher, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at school relocation centers. As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a rapidly escalating event at the plant wherein evacuation is ordered promptly and no early protective actions have been implemented.

Therefore, children are evacuated to relocation centers. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

It is assumed that children at day-care centers are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to: 0 Estimate demand for transit service Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the relocation centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.

Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note: Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 x10) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + (2 x 10)] -40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 1, 130 people. Therefore, a total of at least 38 bus runs are required to transport this population to relocation centers.Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the RNP EPZ: P = No.of HH x If(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) -i]} x AiCi i=O Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 15,827 x [0.071 x 1.37 + 0.263 x (1.72 -1) x 0.48 x 0.45 + 0.41 x (2.24 -2)x (0.48 x 0.45)2] = 15,827 x 0.1428 = 2,260 B = (0.5 x P) + 30 = 38 These calculations are explained as follows: All members (1.37 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (7.1%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share.

The term 15,827 (number of households) x 0.071 x 1.37 accounts for these people.The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (26.3%), who are at home, equal (1.72-1).The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (15,827 x 0.263 x 0.48 x 0.45), as 48% of EPZ households have a commuter, 45% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency.

The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (41.0%), who are at home, equal (2.24 -2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 15,827 x 0.41 x (0.48 x 0.45)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the counties (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

8.2 School

Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by the local county emergency management agencies.

The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation does not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.Implementation of a process to confirm individual school transportation needs prior to bus dispatch may improve bus utilization.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate school children that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the school relocation centers for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. 300 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by the county emergency management agencies.

This data includes the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at each facility.The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 1 patient can be accommodated per ambulance trip for critical patients and 2 people for non-critical; the number of wheelchair van runs assumes 4 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat inefficient, or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the relocation center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population was calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-41B-)C)

Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:

Board Passengers (C-)D)Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+-, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: a a Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate rate Then, P =1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the EPZ county emergency management agencies and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5). These numbers indicate there are insufficient resources available to evacuate transit dependent populations in a single wave. The South Carolina Emergency Plans, SCORERP, in Section III specifies the counties may request back up support from the state if unable to provide adequate transportation resources.

Details were not provided on the number and type of vehicles that would be available from the State;therefore those vehicles are not included in Table 8-5. The number of buses required to evacuate the schools listed in Tables 8-7 9 is 127; providing transportation to all daycares and schools listed in Table 8-2 requires 172 buses. Using only county resources, there are sufficient resources to evacuate all schools in a single wave, but not to evacuate both daycares and schools in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate school relocation center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV II computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Average Speed (7-)Zn11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.U Delay on link i (min.) + length of link i (mi.) 60 min} Xlhr.current speed on link i hr..The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the relocation center was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds used in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to compute travel time were also 45 mph (40 mph for rain -10% decrease -and 35 mph for snow -20% decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in South Carolina is 45 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the school relocation center. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A-4B-)C, C->D, and D-*E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 5 = 1:50 for McBee Elementary School, with good weather).

The evacuation time to the School relocation center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E-)F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), 91 percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 90 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.

Zones B-i and B-2 have high transit-dependent populations and require more buses than any other Zone (Table 8-10). As such, two separate routes have been identified for each of these zones. The start of service on these routes is separated by 15 minute headways, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The use of bus headways ensures that those people who take longer to mobilize will be picked up.Mobilization time is 10 minutes longer in rain and 20 minutes in snow to account for slower travel speeds and reduced roadway capacity.Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The county emergency plans do not define bus routes to service these pick-up locations.

The 12 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service the major routes through each zone with significant population.

It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at these pre-designated pick-up locations, and that they can arrive at the stops within the 90 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pick-up times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing Zone B-1 is computed as 90 + 36 + 30 = 2:40 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).

Here, 33 minutes is the time to travel 10.4 miles at 17.4 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 90 minutes.The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

As stated in Section 8.1, the minimum need for transit dependent buses is 38 based on population divided by 30 persons per bus. However, in order to service all the zones adequately based on population proportionally divided amongst the zones, 43 buses would be required to service all zones.Activity:

Travel to Relocation Centers (E->F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the relocation centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the relocation center. The relocation centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general public. Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F-)G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-KC)Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the relocation center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing Zone B-1 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at relocation center at 3:00 in good weather (2:40 to exit EPZ + 20 minute travel time to relocation center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 20 minutes (equal to travel time to relocation center) + 27 minutes (10.4 miles @ 45 mph + 10.4 @ 45 mph) = 47 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:40 + 0:20 + 0:15 + 0:47 + 0:30 = 4:35 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the relocations centers to congregate care centers, if the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.

Wheelchair vans can accommodate 4 patients, and ambulances can accommodate 2 patients or 1 patient depending on either critical or non-critical classification.

Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 25 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 8 bus runs, 2 wheelchair van runs and 66 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 153 buses, 12 vans, 5 wheelchair vans, 36 ambulances.

There are insufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair bound persons from the medical facilities in a single wave, a two-wave evacuation is needed for ambulances evacuating bedridden patients.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes. Specially Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair vans, and ambulances at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair vans and ambulances are 30, 75 and 30 minutes, respectively.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for the Carriage House of Hartsville:

ETE: 90 + 1 x 30 + 15 = 135 min. or 2:15 It is assumed that medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities.

Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the relocation center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The county emergency management agencies have a combined registration for transit-dependent and homebound special needs persons. Based on data provided by the counties, there are an estimated 59 homebound special needs people within the Darlington County portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

The most recent data provided from Darlington County did not specify how many people need which type of transportation.

Previous county data provided showed on average 15% of people need ambulances and 85% of people would need a bus service. These percentages were applied to the 59 people and results in 51 ambulatory persons, 8 persons needing ambulances.

It is assumed latchkey children are considered within the homebound functional needs population.

Latchkey children are defined by NUREG/CR-7002 as children within households that are unsupervised and will need transportation.

No data was received on the number of latchkey children within the EPZ. If transportation was required to pick up these children, they would receive an ETE comparable to that of the ETE for homebound functional needs persons.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.These people will need to be picked up from their homes. It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Van and bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 30 mph in good weather (10% slower Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 51 ambulatory households need to be serviced.

While only 2 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 8 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require about 7 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 8 buses are deployed, each with about 7 stops, to service a total of 51 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

6 @ 9 minutes = 54 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

6 @ 5 minutes = 30 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

9 minutes (5 miles @ 33.5 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 54 + 30 + 9 = 3:10 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes The following outlines the ETE calculations if a second wave is needed using school buses after the schools have been evacuated (see Table 8-18): a. School buses arrive at R.C. (average value from Table 8-7): 2:25 b. Unload students at relocation center: 5 minutes.c. Driver takes 10 minute rest: 10 minutes.d. Travel time back to EPZ: 24 minutes (average time of "Travel Time from EPZ Bdry to H.S." from Table 8-7)e. Bus travels to all stops: 6 stops @ 9 minutes = 54 minutes f. Loading time at all stops: 6 stops @ 5 minutes = 30 minutes g. Travel time to EPZ boundary:

9 minutes (5 miles @ 33.5 mph)ETE: 2:25+5+10+24+54+30+9=4:40 Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 (Subsequent Wave)A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Relocation Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Relocation Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Time A-*B Driver Mobilization B-*C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C--D Passengers Board the Bus D-*E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-41F Bus Travels Towards Relocation Center Outside the EPZ F--G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

~1 Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 35,927 1.37 1.72 2.24 15,827 7.1% 26.3% 41.0% 48% 45% 2,260 50% 1,130 3.1%Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-2. School and Daycare Population Demand Estimates-I ist baptist Lfnurcn Prescnool bi B-1 A Kidz Place I 33 1 B-1 A Kidz Place II 62 1 B-i Agnes Scurry 6 1 B-1 Barbara Tyner's Daycare 35 1 B-i Butler Head Start Center 120 2 B-1 Carolina Elementary School 278 4 B-i Carolina Girls & Barfoot Boys Daycare 36 1 Center B-i Children's Corner 100 2 B-1 Coker College 2 875 1 B-1 Eastside Christian Academy 35 1 B-i Evelyn J. Purvis 6 1 B-1 First Baptist Weekday Preschool 97 2 B-1 First Presbyterian Church School 10 1 B-i Ginger A Shoemake 6 1 B-i Governor's School for Science & Math 175 4 B-1 Hartsville Middle School 1,123 23 B-1 Hartsville Senior High School 1,350 27 B-i Jill Beckham 6 1 B-1 Kid'N Around 29 1 B-1 Kids N Me 35 1 B-1 Kings Kids Children's Center 55 1 B-1 Lakeview Baptist Church School 61 1 B-1 Mary Jean Young 6 1 B-1 New Vision -CDC -Magnolia Child Care 56 1 B-1 North Hartsville Elementary School 678 10 B-1 Peggy Fairland Bridges 12 1 B-1 Pure Word Ministries NDA* 1 B-1 Sandra Cook 6 1 B-1 Southside Early Childhood Center 410 6 B-1 St Luke United Methodist Preschool 44 1 B-1 St. Joseph Head Start 212 4 B-i Thompson Children Learning Center 19 1 B-1 Thompson's Unique Learning Center NDA* 1 B-i Thornwell School for the Arts 400 6 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 B-1 True Saints Church of God in Christ 40 I B-i Washington Street Elementary School 325 5 B-i YMCA Day Care 160 3 B-2 Calvary Christian School 22 1 B-2 Emmanuel Christian School 363 8 B-2 Jeanette Pendergrass 12 1 B-2 Nazareth Day Care & 28 1 B-2 Tracy Goodman 6 1 C-1 Dale Arthur 6 1 C-1 Forest Hills Academy 12 1 C-1 Kelleytown Baptist Church NDA* 1 C-1 Linda Kelley 6 1 C-1 Shelby Perdue 6 1 C-1 Susan Watkins 12 1 C-1 West Hartsville Elementary School 172 3 C-2 Jermika Couplin 6 1 C-2 Luann Johnson 6 1 C-2 St. John Head Start Center 248 4 C-2 Thomas Hart Academy 140 4 D-1 Patricia Phillips Daycare 13 1 E-2 McBee Elementary School 385 6 E-2 McBee Headstart NDA' 1 E-2 McBee High School 491 10 1No data was available for these schools; one school bus was counted for each school regardless to account for potential needs.2 Details for transit dependent students calculated can be found in Section 3.3 3The YMCA After School Program is not a licensed daycare and is exempt from South Carolina DSS licensing requirements.

Daycares will provide their own transportation or parents will pick up. If the facility needs resources, this table calculates daycare needs based on 70 children per bus as per assumptions memo.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-3. School Relocation Centers Scoo Reoato center I Bible Baptist School A Kidz Place I A Kidz Place II Barbara Tyner's Daycare Butler Head Start Center Carolina Elementary School Carolina Girls & Barefoot Boys Daycare Center Children's Corner Evelyn J. Purvis First Baptist Weekday Preschool First Presbyterian Church School Ginger A Shoemake Hartsville Middle School Hartsville Senior High School Jill Beckham Kids N Me Kings Kids Childrens Center Lakeview Baptist Church School Mary Jean Young New Vision -CDC -Magnolia Child Care Florence City -County Civic Center North Hartsville Elementary School Peggy Fairland Bridges Sandra Cook Southside Early Childhood Center St Luke United Methodist Preschool St. Joseph Head Start Thompson Children Learning Center True Saints Church of God in Christ Washington Street Elementary School YMCA After School Program 1st Baptist Church Preschool Agnes Scurry Calvary Christian School Coker College Eastside Christian Academy Emmanuel Christian School Governor's School for Science & Math Jeanette Pendergrass Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 IScho Reoato cete I Kid'N Around Nazareth Day Care &Pure Word Ministries Thompson's Unique Learning Center Thornwell School for the Arts Tracy Goodman Dale Arthur Forest Hills Academy Kelleytown Baptist Church Linda Kelley Shelby Perdue Susan Watkins West Hartsville Elementary School Jermika Couplin Luann Johnson St. John Head Start Center Thomas Hart Academy Patricia Phillips Daycare McBee Elementary School McBee Headstart Chesterfield Senior High School McBee High School*Daycares will provide their own transportation or parents will pick up.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand B-1 Carolina Pines Regional Medical Hartsville 116 81 0 35 3 0 26 Center B-1 Morningside of Hartsville Hartsville 39 34 5 0 2 2 0 B-1 Thad E. Saleeby Development Center Hartsville 85 5 0 80 1 0 40 B-1 Carriage House of Hartsville Hartsville 60 60 0 0 2 0 0 B-2 Morrell Memorial Convalescent Care Harsville 154 34 113 7 1 29 4 Center Darlington Subtotal:

454 214 118 122 9 3170 Carolina Pines Regional Medical Center uses a capacity of 1 person per ambulance for critical patients and 2 people per ambulance for non-critical patience.

The patients listed for wheelchair bound have a breakdown of 17 critical and 18 non-critical.

Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Trnprtto Whechi Rsouc Bueas Vns A blne Lee County EMS 7 McBee EMS (Chesterfield County) -5 Sandhills Ambulance 5 5 First Health Ambulance

--5 Darlington County 135 -Darlington County EMS -9 Volunteer Rescue Squads (Darlington County) -5 Governor's School for Math & Science 1 5 -McBee School District 17 -Coker College' -7 Schools (Table 8-2): 173 --Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 9 31 70 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 43 --Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 8 --4 1 Coker College reports 2 small vans and 4 -15 passenger vans Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Buss 0 00 0 Route0 .3 Forest Hills Academy, West Hartsville Elementary School 24, 314, 25, 27, 28, 196, 53, 65, 190 5 Carolina Elementary School 37, 260, 261, 38, 150, 40, 41, 43, 29, 30, 31, 32 6 1st Baptist Church Preschool 39, 264, 38, 151, 50, 28, 196, 53, 65, 190 8 Governor's School for Science & Math 40, 41, 42, 50, 28, 196, 53, 65, 190 9North Hartsville Elementary School, 102, 231, 39, 264, 38, 151, 50, 28, 196, 53, 65, 190 Lakeview Baptist Church School 14 McBee Schools 82, 1, 88, 92 16 Hartsville Middle School, First Presbyterian 260,261,38,151,50,28,313,29,30,31,32 School 17 Eastside Christian Academy, Coker College, 45,46,328,233,42,50,28,313,29,30,31,32 Thornwell School for the Arts 18 Thomas Hart Academy 29, 30, 31, 32 20 Calvary Christian Academy 30, 31, 32 22 Emmanuel Christian School 46, 328, 233, 42, 50, 28, 313, 29, 30, 31, 32 23 Morningside of Hartsville 23, 35, 36, 39, 45, 46, 47, 2, 69, 70, 71 24 Carolina Pines Regional Medical Center 314, 25, 27, 28, 313, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 25 Thad E. Saleeby Development Center 271, 151, 50, 28, 313, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 26 Carriage House of Hartsville 45, 46, 47, 2, 69, 70, 71 27 Morrell Memorial Convalescent Center 47, 2, 69, 70, 71 28 Transit Dependent Route A-0 4, 21, 309, 23, 24, 314, 25, 27, 28, 313, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 29 Transit Dependent Route A-1 218, 306, 217, 216, 215, 207, 208, 209 30 Transit Dependent Route A-2 216, 215, 207, 208, 209 31 Transit Dependent Route B-i, 1 of 2 23, 24, 314, 25, 27, 28, 313, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 32 Transit Dependent Route B-1, 2 of 2 139, 220, 221, 222, 102, 231, 39, 264, 38, 150, 40, 41, 43, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 33 Transit Dependent Route B-2, I of 2 104, 103, 102, 231, 39, 264, 38, 150, 40, 41, 43, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 35 Transit Dependent Route, C-1 23, 24, 314, 25, 27, 28, 313, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 36 Transit Dependent Route, C-2 196, 53, 65, 190, 66 38 Transit Dependent Route, D-2 55, 56, 57, 292, 293, 58, 343, 254 40 Transit Dependent Route, E-2 83, 82, 1, 88, 92 41 Transit Dependent Route B-2, 2 of 2 232, 2, 69, 70, 152 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather 1 iccee tiemenm:ary McBee High Schoolýcnooi I"-90 15 15 3.9 t 45.0 5 90 15 3.4 45.0 5 19.2 26 19.2 26 19.2 26 McBee Headstart 90 15 7.4 45.0 10 Lakeview Baptist Church School 90 15 15.5 39.5 24 Carolina Elementary School 90 15 9.9 39.2 15 North Hartsville Elementary School 90 15 10.2 39.0 16 First Presbyterian Church School 90 15 9.2 38.2 14 Hartsville Middle School 90 15 9.5 38.2 15 Hartsville Senior High School 90 15 9.3 38.6 14 Washington Street Elementary School 90 15 8.5 38.6 13 Southside Early Childhood Center 90 15 7.0 15.5 27 1st Baptist Church Preschool 90 15 9.1 37.9 14 Coker College 90 15 9.4 41.1 14 Thornwell School for the Arts 90 15 11.4 42.1 16 Governor's School for Science & Math 90 15 9.5 40.3 14 Eastside Christian Academy 90 15 11.1 42.1 16 Emmanuel Christian School 90 15 11.5 42.0 16 Calvary Christian School 90 15 1.9 45.0 3 Forest Hills Academy 90 15 10.2 43.2 14 West Hartsville Elementary School 90 15 10.8 43.2 15 Thomas Hart Academy 90 15 5.1 43.2 7 Maximum for EPZ: Average for EPZ: 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 14.7 20 18.2 24 18.2 24 18.2 24 Maximum: Average: Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Washington Street Elementary School Governor's School for Science & Math Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Mcbee tiementary bcnooi McBee High School MrRpp Hpadlqtart 25 3.4 33.1 6 25 7.4 31.7 14 9V.2 1 33 19.2 33 19.2 33 LdKeVIeW dapust unurcn acr Carolina Elementary School 1001 110 25 15.5 32.7 28 110 25 9.9 31.5 19 North Hartsville Elementary School 110 25 10.2 31.6 19 First Presbyterian Church School 110 25 9.2 31.6 17 Hartsville Middle School 110 25 9.5 31.6 18 Hartsville Senior High School 110 25 9.3 31.8 18 Washington Street Elementary School 110 25 8.5 31.8 16 Southside Early Childhood Center 110 25 7.0 10.9 38 1st Baptist Church Preschool 110 25 9.1 31.5 17 Coker College 110 25 9.4 33.4 17 Thornwell School for the Arts 110 25 11.4 33.7 20 Governor's School for Science & Math 110 25 9.5 33.3 17 Eastside Christian Academy 110 25 11.1 33.4 20 Emmanuel Christian School 110 25 11.5 33.5 21 Calvary Christian School 110 25 1.9 35.0 3 Forest Hills Academy 110 25 10.2 34.9 18 West Hartsville Elementary School 110 25 10.8 34.9 19 Thomas Hart Academy 110 25 5.1 35.0 9 Maximum for EPZ: Average for EPZ: 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 14.7 25 18.2 31 18.2 31 18.2 31 Maximum: Average: Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No. ofLnt Rot Bue Rot Decrpto (M .1 7 Bus route servicing the City of Hartsville along Bo Bo Newsome Hwy south towards the EPZ boundary.10.4 2 5 Bus route servicing communities along Patrick Hwy south to N. Fifth Street to Bo 13.7 Bo Newsome Hwy.3 3 Bus Route servicing the community of Kellytown along Kellytown Rd to Bo Bo 12.8 Newsome Hwy.4 3 Bus Route servicing the areas of Lee's Crossroads, Registrar Crossroads and 5.5 portions of Lydia along US 15.5 2 Bus Route servicing the areas of Ashland, Stokes Bridge and Turkey Creek 6.5 communities along SC-341 south towards Bishopville.

6 3 Bus Route servicing the areas of Leland and portions of McBee along US I north 7.2 towards SC-145 and the EPZ Boundary.7 2 Servicing communities along SC-145 towards Chesterfield from the intersection 43 of Holiday Rd.8 1 Servicing communities along SC-145 towards Chesterfield from the intersection 79 with County Line Rd / W. L. Johnson Rd.Servicing communities along Hwy 151 and Bo Bo Newsome Hwy from Clyde and New Market south towards the eastern portion of Hartsville.

10 7 Bus route servicing the City of Hartsville along Lakeview Blvd, N 5th St., and Bo 14.3 Bo Newsome Hwy.11 5 Servicing communities along W 5th Street US 15 East towards the EPZ boundary.

5.8 Total

43 Section 8.1 calculates that 38 transit dependent buses are required to evacuate.

There are higher proportions of population in some zones that require more buses than the minimum. This table in addition to Table 3.8 in Section 3, show the total number of buses needed to service the transit dependent population of all zones.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation lime Estimates

-Good Weather 4 90 10.4 17.4 36 30 I 3 105 10.4 18.1 34 30 3 90 13.7 16.7 49 30 2 2 105 13.7 17.6 47 30 2 90 12.8 17.7 43 30 3 1 105 12.8 18.4 42 30 2 90 5.5 40.0 8 30 4 1 105 5.5 40.0 8 30 1 90 6.5 40.0 10 30 5 1 105 6.5 40.0 10 30 2 90 7.2 40.0 11 30 6 1 105 7.2 40.0 11 30 1 90 4.3 5.8 44 30 7 1 105 4.3 7.5 34 30 8 1 90 7.9 9.8 49 30 3 90 13.0 20.0 39 30 9 2 105 13.0 20.9 37 30 4 90 14.3 15.8 54 30 10 3 105 14.3 16.2 53 30 3 90 5.8 20.4 17 30 11 2 105 5.8 23.2 15 30 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 14.7 20 5 10 49 30 14.7 20 5 10 49 30 14.7 20 5 10 58 30 14.7 20 5 10 58 30 14.7 20 5 10 56 30 14.7 20 5 10 56 30 14.7 20 5 10 35 30 14.7 20 5 10 35 30 14.7 20 5 10 38 30 14.7 20 5 10 38 30 14.7 20 5 10 40 30 14.7 20 5 10 41 30 14.3 19 5 10 31 30 14.3 19 5 10 31 30 14.3 19 5 10 41 30 14.7 20 5 10 56 30 14.7 20 5 10 56 30 14.7 20 5 10 60 30 14.7 20 5 10 60 30 14.7 20 5 10 36 30 14.7 20 5 10 36 30 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain I 4 100 10.4 14.5 43 40 14.7 22 5 10 52 40 3 115 10.4 14.8 42 40 3 100 13.7 13.9 59 40 2 2 115 13.7 14.6 56 40 2 100 12.8 14.7 52 40 3 1 115 12.8 15.0 51 40 2 100 5.5 40.0 8 40 4 1 115 5.5 40.0 8 40 1 100 6.5 39.5 10 40 5 1 115 6.5 40.0 10 40 2 100 7.2 40.0 11 40 6 1 115 7.2 40.0 11 40 1 100 4.3 6.8 38 40 7 1 115 4.3 9.3 28 40 8 1 100 7.9 12.0 39 40 3 100 13.0 16.7 47 40 9 2 115 13.0 17.3 45 40 4 100 1.3 13.3 64 40 10 + _ _ _ _3 115 1.3 14.0 61 40 3 100 5.8 22.2 16 40 2 11 .8 34.7 10 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 14.7 22 5 10 52 40 14.7 22 5 10 62 40 14.7 22 5 10 62 40 14.7 22 5 10 58 40 14.7 22 5 10 58 40 14.7 22 5 10 38 40 14.7 22 5 10 38 40 14.7 22 5 10 41 40 14.7 22 5 10 41 40 14.7 22 5 10 43 40 14.7 22 5 10 42 40 14.3 21 5 10 34 40 14.3 21 5 10 34 40 14.3 21 5 10 44 40 14.7 22 5 10 59 40 14.7 22 5 10 59 40 14.7 22 5 10 66 40 14.7 22 5 10 66 40 14.7 22 5 10 38 40 14.7 22 5 10 38 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow 4 110 10.47124550 5 3 125 10.47126549 5 3 110 1. 125 6 5014.7 25 5 10 67 5 2 125 1. 130 6 5014.7 25 5 10 68 5 2 110 12.8 12.7 61 50 14.7 25 5 10 4 50 6 3 1 125 12.8 13.2 58 50 14.7 25 5 10 64 50 2 110 5.5 35 9 50 14.7 25 5 10 42 50 4 11014.7 25 5 1 2 5 1 125 6.5 3.0 61 50 14.7 25 5 10 45 50 2 110 6.5 35.0 61 50 14.7 25 5 10 4 50 1 125 7.2 3.0 12 50 14.7 25 5 10 4 50 21055 3. 9 50 2S 14.7 25 5 10 47 50 1 110 4.3 8.7 3 50 14.3 25 5 10 38 50 7 1 125 4.3 14.5 18 50 14.3 25 5 10 38 50 8 1 110 7.9 14.2 33 50 14.3 25 5 10 49 50 3 110 1.0 14.3 55 50 14.7 25 5 10 65 50 9 2 125 1.0 14.7 53 50 14.7 25 5 10 65 50 4 110 4.314. 25 5 50 10 3 125 4.314. 25 5 50 3 110 5 3.0 1 0 50 14.7 25 5 10 43 50 11 2 125 5.8 35.0 10 50 14.7 25 5 10 43 50 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average ETE: Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Carolina Pines Ambulatory 90 1 81 30 8.3 30 2:30 Regional Medical Wheelchair bound 90 5 0 0 8.3 33 2.05 Center Bedridden 90 25 35 50 8.3 30 2:50 Ambulatory 90 1 34 30 10.5 14 2:15 Mornside Wheelchair bound 90 5 5 25 10.5 16 2:15 Hartsville Bedridden 90 25 0 0 10.5 25 1:55 Thad E. Saleeby Ambulatory 90 1 5 5 9.4 37 2:15 Development Wheelchair bound 90 5 0 0 9.4 39 2:10 Center Bedridden 90 25 80 50 9.4 34 2:55 Ambulatory 90 1 60 30 10.6 15 2:15 Carriage Wheelchair bound 90 5 0 0 10.6 28 2:00 Hartsville Bedridden 90 25 0 0 10.6 28 2:00 Morrell Memorial Ambulatory 90 1 34 30 11.6 15 2:15 Convalescent Care Wheelchair bound 90 5 113 75 11.6 15 3:00 Center Bedridden 90 25 7 50 11.6 15 2:35 Maximum ETE: 3.00 Average ETE: 2:25 Robinson Nuclear Plant 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 i Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Lodn Toa Dit Tim to Rat Lodn To 0P E Moiizto (mi per Tim B. Bondr .Medca Failt Pain (mn pesn Pe pe ( i) ( -( i) (rm Ambulatory 100 1 81 30 8.3 37 2:50 Carolina Pines Regional Medical Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 0 0 8.3 40 2:20 Bedridden 100 25 35 50 8.3 33 3:05 Ambulatory 100 1 34 30 10.5 16 2:30 Morningside of Hartsville Wheelchair bound 100 5 5 25 10.5 16 2:25 Bedridden 100 25 0 0 10.5 21 2:05 Ambulatory 100 1 , 5 5 9.4 46 2:35 Thad E. Saleeby Development Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 0 0 9.4 48 2:30 Bedridden 100 25 80 50 9.4 35 3:05 Ambulatory 100 1 60 30 10.6 16 2:30 Carriage House of Hartsville Wheelchair bound 100 5 0 0 10.6 24 2:05 Bedridden 100 25 0 0 10.6 24 2:05 Ambulatory 100 1 34 30 11.6 17 2:30 Morrell Memorial Convalescent Care Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 113 75 11.6 17 3:15 Bedridden 100 25 7 50 11.6 17 2:50 Maximum ETE: 3:15 Average ETE: 2:35 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Loain Toa Dis. Tim to RaeLaig T P P Ambulatory 110 1 81 30 8.3 43 3:05 Carolina Pines Regional Medical Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 0 0 8.3 47 2:40 Bedridden 110 25 35 50 8.3 38 3:20 Ambulatory 110 1 34 30 10.5 18 2:40 Morningside of Hartsville Wheelchair bound 110 5 5 25 10.5 18 2:35 Bedridden 110 25 0 0 10.5 18 2:10 Ambulatory 110 1 5 5 9.4 54 2:50 Thad E. Saleeby Development Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 0 0 9.4 55 2:45 Bedridden 110 25 80 50 9.4 41 3:25 Ambulatory 110 1 60 30 10.6 18 2:40 Carriage House of Hartsville Wheelchair bound 110 5 0 0 10.6 18 2:10 Bedridden 110 25 0 0 10.6 18 2:10 Ambulatory 110 1 34 30 11.6 20 2:40 Morrell Memorial Convalescent Care Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 113 75 11.6 20 3:25 Bedridden 110 25 7 50 11.6 20 3:00 Maximum ETE: 3:25 Average ETE: 2:50 Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Toa0Tae 0oiia Loain Lodn Tim to Pepl 0in Tm t Taet iea P Requiring

~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Veice Wete ie*!So usqun usqet Budr T V e h i c l e~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~ T y e V h c e d p o e. 0p o n i i n m n m n t p m i ) S o s ( i ) ( i )( r m Buses 51 8 7 Good Rain Snow 90 100 110 5 54 60 66 30 9 10 10 3:10 3:25 3:45 Good 90 30 9 3:50 Ambulances 8 2 4 Rain 100 25 33 75 10 4:05 Snow 110 39 10 4:20 Maximum ETE: 4:20 Average ETE: 3:45 Table 8-18. Homebound Special Needs Persons Evacuation Time Estimates

-Second Wave for Ambulatory 1 Average ETE to Relocation Center from Table 8-7 through Table 8-9, respectively Average of travel time from EPZ boundary to Relocation Center from Table 8-7 through Table 8-9, respectively 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include: " Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

Guidance is provided by the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD)published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.* A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example:* A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

They will be implemented by South Carolina Highway Patrol Officers, Hartsville and Bishopville Police Department Officers and Darlington, Lee and Chesterfield County Police Officers.2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment.

This analysis identifies those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that are not identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs.3. A field survey of the highway network within 15 miles of the power plant.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs / ACPs will have a more Robinson Nuclear Plant 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs /ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. Also, the TCPs on SR 151 are important because of the high volume of traffic that would use it. Such priorities should be assigned by state/county emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

Two locations were identified as potential TCP locations, as detailed in Appendix G. Although a simulation sensitivity study showed that both intersections clearly performed better as a TCP, the ETE was not significantly reduced, making neither a first priority if resources are limited.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

Routing from a Zone being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to relocation centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to relocation centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.Figure 10-1 present a map showing the general population and school relocation centers for evacuees.

The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate relocation center and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest relocation center for each county. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from relocation centers to congregate care centers, if the counties do make the decision to relocate evacuees.Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 10-1. General Population and School Relocation Centers Robinson Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Major Evacuation Routes , / / , w ithin the Robinson Nuclear Plant EPZ '/, ,,/ , ., , I' 7j ,,/>. ,,/ j /.v/ .d / , / /. "/ / /<, " .", , ' " ,// ',, '/, " /A.*re Rd...7, , ,,,/,-ee L e e I -I: , Rd.e A40 N 0- B-Le e d kD -2 Lyi RNP , ,N -4 Zone /~-Evacuation Route '~~' ~,/2, ,5.10, 15 Mile Rings A Shadow Region G /y 7;0 0i5le0______________, / / , Figure 10-2. Major Evacuation Routes Robinson Nuclear Plant 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

ML12363A057

Contents

Text

7.1 Shadow

7.3 Patterns

8.2 School

5.8 Total

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ML12363A057

Text

7.1 Shadow

7.3 Patterns

8.2 School

5.8 Total

Navigation menu

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