Text

Kld TR-512, Rev. 1, Brunswick Nuclear Power Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates
	ML123630597
Person / Time
Site:	Brunswick
Issue date:	12/05/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; Carolina Power & Light Co, Duke Energy Carolinas, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	BSEP 12-0137 KLD TR-512, Rev 1
	Download: ML123630597 (405)
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November2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-512 BrunswickNuclearPowerPlantDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforDukeEnergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788kweinisch@kldcompanies.com BrunswickNuclearPlantKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 BrunswickNuclearPlantiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2TheBrunswickNuclearPlantLocation.......................................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheBrunswickNuclearPlantStudyArea............................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Intersections......................................................................................................................4 74.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 75ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2Fundam entalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 155.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 176DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1ShadowEvacuation....................................................................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 37.5EvacuationTi meEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 67.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 8 BrunswickNuclearPlantiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 108.6EvacuationofVisitorstoBaldHeadIsland..............................................................................8 119TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.FACILITYDATA....................................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults.......................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.......................................................................................................F 10F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.................................................................................................F 12F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 15G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1HEVACUAT IONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.ZONEBOUNDARIES............................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofCha ngesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3 BrunswickNuclearPlantiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskippedListofFiguresFigure1 1.BrunswickNuclearPlantLocation..........................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.BNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.BNPEPZ...................................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams............................................................................................................4 8Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 14Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2toEPZBoundary.............................................................................................................................5 21Figure6 1.BNPEPZZones........................................................................................................................6 7Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuation............................................................................................................7 21Figure7 2.BNPShadowRegion..............................................................................................................7 22Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 23Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 24Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 25Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat4Hours,15MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 26Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat5Hours,20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 27Figure7 8.CongestionPa tternsat6Hours,45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 28Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat7Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 29Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR02....................................................7 30Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario2forRegionR02....................................................7 30Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR02....................................................7 31Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR02....................................................7 31Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR0 2....................................................7 32Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR02....................................................7 32Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR02....................................................7 33Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR02....................................................7 33Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario9forRegionR02....................................................7 34Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR02..................................................7 34Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR02..................................................7 35 BrunswickNuclearPlantivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR02..................................................7 35Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 12Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 13Figure8 3.TransitDependentBusRoutes..............................................................................................8 14Figure10 1.EvacuationSheltersandRelocationSchools......................................................................10 2Figure10 2.MajorEvacuationRoutes....................................................................................................10 3FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 10FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 11FigureE 3.Majo rEmployerswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 12FigureE 4.RecreationalAreaswithinZonesA,B,C,D,E,andN...........................................................E 13FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithinZonesG,J,K,andL.....................................................................E 14FigureE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 15FigureE 7.Lo dgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 16FigureE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 17FigureE 9.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 18FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 3FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.Mo desofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.HouseholdthatRequireAssistanceDuringanEmergency......................................................F 9FigureF 9.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation.............................................................................F 10FigureF 10.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets.......................................................................................F 11FigureF 12.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 13FigureF 13.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 13FigureF 14.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 14FigureG 1.RecommendedTrafficControlPointsfortheBNPSite.........................................................G 2FigureG 2.RecommendedTCP 01...........................................................................................................G 3FigureG 3.RecommendedTCP 02...........................................................................................................G 4FigureG 4.RecommendedTCP 03...........................................................................................................G 5FigureG 5.RecommendedTCP 04...........................................................................................................G 6FigureG 6.RecommendedTCP 05...........................................................................................................G 7FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04..............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05..............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06..............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07............................................................................................................................H 10 BrunswickNuclearPlantvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08............................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09............................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10..........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11..........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12..........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13..........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14..........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15..........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16..........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17..........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18..........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19..........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20..........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21..........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22..........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23..........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24..........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25..........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26..........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27..........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28..........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29..........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30..........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31..........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32..........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33..........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 34.RegionR34..........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 35.RegionR35..........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 36.RegionR36..........................................................................................................................H 39FigureH 37.RegionR37..........................................................................................................................H 40FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 6FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 6FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 7FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 7FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).......................................................................................................................J 8FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)................J 8FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7).................................J 9FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)................J 9FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)...............................J 10FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Weekend,GoodWeather(Scenario10).......J 10FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)............................................................................................................................................J 11FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)................................................................................................................J 11FigureK 1.BrunswickNuclearPlantLink NodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................K 2FigureK 2.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3 BrunswickNuclearPlantviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34 BrunswickNuclearPlantviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................1 9Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyZone...........................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.BN PEPZExternalTraffic.........................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 12Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 5Table6 2.DescriptionofStagedEvacuationRegions...............................................................................6 6Table6 3.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 8Table6 4.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 9Table6 5.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario................................................................................................6 10Table7 1.Ti metoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................7 11Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 13Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 15Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 17Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 19Table7 6.DescriptionsofEvacuationRegions........................................................................................7 20Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 15Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 16Table8 3.RelocationSchools.................................................................................................................8 17Table8 4.MedicalFacili tyTransitDemand............................................................................................8 18Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 19Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 20Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 22Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 23Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutes..........................................................................8 24Table8 10.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 25Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 26Table8 12.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather.............................................8 27 BrunswickNuclearPlantviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 13.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 28Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 3TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ.......................................................................................E 2TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 3TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 4TableE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 5TableE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 7TableF 1.BNPTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan......................................................................................F 2TableG 1.RecommendedTrafficControlPoints'EffectonETE..............................................................G 1TableH 1.PercentofZonePopulationEvacuati ngforRegions..............................................................H 2TableH 2.PercentofZonePopulationEvacuatingforStagedRegions..................................................H 3TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 3TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR02)...........................J 4TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR02,Scenario1).................................................................................................................................................J 4TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR02,Scenario1.........................J 5TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 35TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled...........................................K 56TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTi meEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableM 4.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange-SpecialEvent/RoadwayImpact...........................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheBrunswickNuclearPlant(BNP)locatedinBrunswickCounty,NorthCarolina.ETEprovideDukeEnergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsitespecificinformationneededforprotectiveactiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG 0654/FEMA RE P 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. AppendixE-EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities,10CFR50.OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinMarch2012.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010. StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheBNP,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximate ly15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortoth esurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesineachcounty.Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided. Thetrafficdemandandtripgenerationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegatheredda ta.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto13zones.Thesezonesarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof37EvacuationRegions.

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 ThetimevaryingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain).Onespecialeventscenarioinvolvingthe4 thofJulyFestivalinSouthportwasconsidered.AcombinedroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonUS 17northboundwhileasegmentofSR211wasclosedjusteastoftheintersectionwithStoneChimneyRd.forthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindtotheEPZboundarywereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingeventattheBNPwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntiltheastatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheevento ccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytorelocationschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatch edforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpubli ctransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransitdependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof444ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe37EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe12EvacuationScenarios(37x12=444).SeparateETEarecalc ulatedfortransitdependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.

ExceptforRegionR02,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyi ngthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.

ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbu toutsidetheimpactedregionwillelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Theseshadowevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyshadowevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter inplace.Once90%ofthe2mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mil eswillevacuateeventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter inplace.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdepen dingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphica lformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.

TrafficManagementTrafficControlPlanswerenotprovidedforthisstudy.RefertoAppendixGforinformationonhowimplementingtrafficcontrolpointswillhaveabenefitforETE.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapoftheBNPEPZshowingthelayoutofthe13Zonesthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachZonebasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1andTable6 2defineeachofthe37EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofZone. Table6 3liststheEvacuationScenarios. Table7 1andTable7 2arecompilationsofETEforthegeneralpopulation.Thesedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimate dvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Table7 3andTable7 4presentETEforthe2mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively.

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Table8 7andTable8 8presentETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweatherandrain,respectively. Table8 10andTable8 11presentETEforthetransitdependentpopulationingoodweatherandrain,respectively. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuate dunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.MapsofallregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor444uniquecases-acombinationof37uniqueEvacuationRegionsand12uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom2:20(hr:min)to6:35atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 10through721. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationwouldbebeneficialforevacuatingtheresidentpopulationwithinthe2 mileregionofBNP.ThetrafficcongestionleavingOakIslandresultsinreroutingsomeofthetrafficintothe2 mileregionandsignificantlyincreasesthetimetoclearthe2 milearea.Althoughstagedevacuationisdisadvantageoustothosebeyond2milesformostcases,itdoesexpeditetheevacuationofthoseevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregion.Seesection7.6forfurtherexplanation. ComparisonofScenarios3(summer,weekend,midday)and11(summer,weekend,midday)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventhasasignificanteffectonETEatthe90 thpercentileforallregionswhichdonotincludeZoneK.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-acombinationofroadclosuresonUS 17(onenorthboundlanefortheentiretyofthestudyarea)andSR 211(awestboundsegmentjus teastoftheintersectionwithStoneChimneyRd)doeshaveamaterialimpacton90 thpercentileETE.ETEforkeyholeregionswithwindfromthenorthnortheast,northeast,eastnortheast,east,andeastsoutheast(RegionsR02,R04throughR09,andR11),experienceincreasesupto3hoursand5minutes.WindfromthesedirectionscarriestheplumeoverZonesA,B,C,D,E,andF,whichroutestrafficontoSR 211westbound.Withthisroadclosed,evacueesaredetouredontoMidwayRdSEnorthboundtowardsUS 17.DuetothenorthboundlaneclosureforUS 17thenorthboundroadwaycapacityisreducedtohalf,significantlyincreasingcongestion.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 9. SeparateET Ewerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,andtransitdependentpersons.Theaveragesingle waveETEforthesefacilitiesarewithinasimilarrangeasthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthatthereareenoughbuses,wheelchairbuses,andambulancesavailabletoevacuatethetransitdependentpopulationwithintheEPZinasinglewave.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof51/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesinthe BrunswickNuclearPlantES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby10minutes.SeeTableM 2. Apopulationincreaseof22%resultsinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.BNPZones BrunswickNuclearPlantES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationZone2000Population2010PopulationA2,0232,689B1,5972,774C608663D6,1745,868E2,4445,627F1,2231,148G2,4674,193H9511,711J229195K6,0857,841L1,8212,383M00N173158TOTAL25,79535,250EPZPopulationGrowth:36.65%

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR012 MileRadiusxxR02FullEPZALLZONESINEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR03NNW,N328° 009°xxxxxR04NNE010° 021°xxxxxxR05022° 038°xxxxxxxR06NE039° 051°xxxxxR07ENE052° 090°xxxxxxR08E091° 112°xxxxxR09ESExxxxR10SE,SSExxxxxxR11113° 179°xxxxxxxR12S180° 195°xxxxxxR13SSW196° 236°xxxxxxR14SWxxxxxR15WSW237° 271°xxxxxxR16W272° 288°xxxxxR17WNWxxxxR18289° 316°xxxxxR19NW317° 327°xxxxN/AALLZONESINEPZSeeRegionR02 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.DescriptionofStagedEvacuationRegionsStagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR20NNW,N329° 009°xxxxxR21NNE010° 021°xxxxxxR22022° 038°xxxxxxxR23NE039° 051°xxxxxR24ENE052° 090°xxxxxxR25E091° 112°xxxxxR26ESExxxxR27SE,SSExxxxxxR28113° 179°xxxxxxxR29S180° 195°xxxxxxR30SSW196° 236°xxxxxxR31SWxxxxxR32WSW237° 271°xxxxxxR33W272° 288°xxxxxR34WNWxxxxR35289° 316°xxxxxR36NW317° 327°xxxxR37ALLZONESINEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZone(s)Shelter in PlaceZone(s)Evacuate BrunswickNuclearPlantES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenariosSeasonDayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11SummerWeekendMiddayGood4 thofJulyFestivalinSouthport12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodCombinationofroadclosuresforSR211andUS171Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatregularschoolisnotinsession.

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionandEPZR012:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R023:453:505:055:353:253:303:403:554:103:205:456:052 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR032:352:352:302:302:402:352:352:352:352:453:502:35R042:503:004:255:002:452:352:453:003:202:405:003:35R053:353:505:255:553:203:203:353:504:153:156:056:05R063:303:505:205:503:203:203:353:554:153:156:006:00R073:353:555:206:003:353:253:404:054:303:206:006:35R083:403:505:255:503:253:203:404:004:253:155:556:20R093:153:303:053:203:103:153:303:103:203:104:054:10R103:103:203:003:002:503:103:253:053:052:553:504:05R113:253:403:153:303:103:303:353:153:303:104:204:40R122:553:003:303:452:403:053:152:402:452:453:403:25R132:352:354:254:502:352:402:402:553:152:454:152:35R142:352:354:254:552:352:402:402:553:152:454:152:35R152:352:354:254:502:352:402:402:553:152:454:202:35R162:302:352:202:202:352:352:352:302:302:403:452:30R172:302:352:202:202:352:352:352:302:302:403:402:30R182:302:352:202:202:352:352:352:302:302:403:402:30R192:302:352:302:302:402:352:352:352:352:453:502:30 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR202:502:502:452:502:502:502:502:502:502:503:402:50R213:253:304:255:003:303:303:353:203:353:404:554:00R224:054:155:256:004:054:104:204:104:254:106:056:15R234:054:155:205:504:054:104:204:054:254:106:056:15R244:104:255:206:054:104:154:254:154:354:106:106:35R254:054:155:256:004:054:104:154:154:354:106:006:25R263:503:553:453:553:553:504:003:504:003:554:054:45R273:453:553:403:503:353:503:553:353:403:354:054:20R284:004:153:554:003:504:054:103:554:053:554:305:05R293:353:403:353:553:253:353:453:203:303:303:503:50R303:253:304:254:503:303:303:353:253:303:354:153:25R313:253:354:254:553:303:303:353:253:303:354:153:25R323:253:354:254:503:303:303:353:253:303:354:203:25R332:502:502:452:502:552:502:552:502:502:553:402:50R342:502:502:452:452:502:502:502:502:502:553:352:50R352:502:502:452:452:502:502:502:502:502:553:352:50R362:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R374:104:155:055:354:004:104:154:154:304:005:506:35

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionandEPZR015:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R025:505:506:557:305:405:456:005:405:405:407:257:502 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR035:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R045:405:405:406:155:405:405:405:405:405:406:055:40R055:405:456:307:105:405:405:405:405:405:407:257:10R065:405:406:257:005:405:405:405:405:405:407:257:05R075:405:456:307:105:405:405:405:405:405:407:257:45R085:405:456:306:505:405:405:405:405:405:407:157:40R095:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R105:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R115:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:406:25R125:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R135:405:405:406:005:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R145:405:405:405:555:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R155:405:405:406:005:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R165:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R175:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R185:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R195:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR205:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R215:405:405:406:105:405:405:405:405:405:406:005:40R225:405:406:257:105:405:405:455:405:405:407:307:25R235:405:406:207:005:405:405:455:405:405:407:257:25R245:405:406:157:055:405:405:405:405:405:407:258:00R255:405:406:207:005:405:405:405:405:405:407:107:40R265:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R275:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R285:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:406:55R295:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R305:405:405:406:105:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R315:405:405:406:055:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R325:405:405:406:055:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R335:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R345:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R355:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R365:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R375:506:106:357:205:406:006:006:056:155:407:358:10

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR012:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R023:003:104:305:002:452:503:003:203:352:455:303:55R032:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R042:352:354:004:302:402:352:352:453:052:454:503:10R053:003:104:305:002:452:452:553:203:352:455:253:45R062:553:104:204:452:402:452:553:203:352:455:203:45R072:553:104:254:452:402:452:553:203:352:455:153:45R082:503:054:104:402:402:452:553:103:252:455:103:45R092:352:402:352:352:402:352:402:402:402:453:552:50R102:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R112:352:402:352:352:402:352:402:402:402:454:002:50R122:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R132:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R142:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:402:35R152:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R162:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R172:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R182:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R192:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR202:452:502:452:452:502:452:502:502:502:503:452:45R213:053:054:004:303:103:053:103:003:053:104:453:15R223:203:204:154:503:253:203:253:153:253:255:203:55R233:153:204:054:353:203:203:203:153:203:205:153:50R243:153:204:104:353:203:153:203:153:203:205:103:55R253:103:154:004:303:153:153:153:103:153:155:053:50R262:553:002:553:003:002:553:003:003:003:003:453:00R272:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R282:553:002:553:003:002:553:003:003:003:003:503:00R292:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R302:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R312:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R322:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:552:45R332:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R342:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R352:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R362:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R373:203:204:104:503:253:203:203:153:253:255:204:05

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR015:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R025:355:355:306:055:305:355:355:305:305:306:305:35R035:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R045:355:355:305:355:305:305:355:305:305:305:505:35R055:355:355:306:105:305:305:355:305:305:306:305:35R065:355:355:305:505:305:355:355:305:305:306:255:35R075:355:355:305:455:305:355:355:305:305:306:155:35R085:355:355:305:355:305:355:355:305:305:306:205:35R095:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:305:35R105:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R115:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R125:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R135:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R145:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R155:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R165:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R175:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R185:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R195:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35

BrunswickNuclearPlantES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR205:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R215:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:505:35R225:305:305:305:555:305:355:355:305:305:306:355:35R235:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:306:255:35R245:305:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:306:205:30R255:355:355:305:355:305:355:355:305:305:306:105:35R265:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R275:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R285:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:305:35R295:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R305:305:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R315:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R325:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R335:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R345:305:305:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R355:305:305:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R365:305:305:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:305:30R375:305:305:305:555:305:355:355:305:305:306:355:35 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)BRUNSWICKCOUNTYSCHOOLSChildcareNetwork90314.427.8322:050.512:10KidsWorldAcademy90311.114.6462:200.822:25KidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenter90314.79.5943:100.413:10L&LMontessoriSchool9030.76.371:400.711:45LongBeachAcademy90312.510.9702:450.822:45Sharon'sChildcare90313.415.7522:250.712:30SouthportBaptistChurchPreschool90314.727.7322:050.512:10SouthportChristianSchool90311.426.1272:000.512:05SouthportElementarySchool90311.812.2592:356.392:45SouthBrunswickHighSchool9038.421.8242:006.292:10SouthBrunswickMiddleSchool9037.75.8792:5512.9183:10NEWHANOVERCOUNTYSCHOOLSCarolinaBeachElementarySchool9033.025.381:453.551:50MaximumforEPZ:3:10Maximum:3:10AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:25 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)BRUNSWICKCOUNTYSCHOOLSChildcareNetwork100814.423.0382:300.512:30KidsWorldAcademy100811.111.2602:500.822:50KidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenter100814.78.21093:400.413:40L&LMontessoriSchool10080.75.382:000.722:00LongBeachAcademy100812.59.0843:150.823:15Sharon'sChildcare100813.412.9632:550.722:55SouthportBaptistChurchPreschool100814.722.9392:300.512:30SouthportChristianSchool100811.421.0332:250.512:25SouthportElementarySchool100811.810.9652:556.3103:05SouthBrunswickHighSchool10088.417.6292:206.2102:30SouthBrunswickMiddleSchool10087.74.9953:2512.9203:45NEWHANOVERCOUNTYSCHOOLSCarolinaBeachElementarySchool10083.022.392:003.562:05MaximumforEPZ:3:40Maximum:3:45AverageforEPZ:2:45Average:2:50 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)RouteSpeed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoE.S.(miles)TravelTimetoE.S(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)18110517.642.925202:3011.01551062204:25212517.644.024202:5011.01551062204:4519110516.344.022202:3010.91551058204:15212516.345.022202:5010.91551058204:3520112516.115.064203:3013.91951063205:3021110513.316.249202:5514.01951055204:45212513.320.239203:0514.01951054204:55314513.322.835203:2014.01951054205:1023110510.26.496203:4514.01951046205:25212510.27.582203:5014.01951046205:30314510.29.266203:5514.01951046205:352411256.543.19202:3517.02351042204:152511059.05.992203:4013.41851071205:4521259.05.598204:0513.41851054205:5526112513.320.938203:0511.01551050204:452811053.635.56202:1511.11551026203:3021153.634.66202:2511.11551026203:4031253.635.76202:3511.11551026203:5041353.635.86202:4511.11551026204:0051453.635.86202:5511.11551026204:102911255.835.110202:3511.11551033204:00MaximumETE:4:05MaximumETE:5:55AverageETE:3:05AverageETE:4:45 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoE.S.(miles)TravelTimetoE.S(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)18110517.634.231302:5011.01651069305:00212517.632.033303:1011.01651069305:2019110516.334.828302:4510.91651065304:50212516.332.830303:0510.91651065305:1520112516.112.379303:5513.92151074306:1521110513.312.663303:2014.02151061305:30212513.315.950303:3014.02151061305:35314513.318.842303:4014.02151061305:4523110510.25.6109304:0514.02151053306:05212510.26.595304:1014.02151053306:10314510.27.582304:2014.02151052306:202411256.525.016302:5517.02651046304:502511059.05.893303:5013.42051066306:0021259.05.696304:1513.42051052306:1026112513.314.655303:3011.01651056305:302811053.621.510302:2511.11751029304:0021153.628.87302:3511.11751029304:0531253.633.07302:4511.11751029304:1541353.633.16302:5511.11751029304:2551453.633.16303:0511.11751029304:352911255.832.311302:5011.11751037304:25MaximumETE:4:20MaximumETE:6:20AverageETE:3:20AverageETE:5:15 BrunswickNuclearPlantES 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 BrunswickNuclearPlant1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheBrunswickNuclearPlant(BNP),locatedinBrunswickCounty,NorthCarolina.ETEprovideDukeEnergy,alongwithStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNu clearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionDukeEnergyemergencyplanningpersonnelAttendKick offmeetingtodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.Providespecialfacilitydata.Approvestudyassumptions.AttendFinalmeetingwheretheETEstudyresultswillbepresented.BrunswickCountyEmergencyServicesAttendKick offmeetingtodefinedatarequirements.Providelocalemergencyplans,specialfacilitydata,andmajoremploymentdata.Approvestudyassumptions.AttendFinalmeetingwheretheETEstudyresultswillbepresented.NewHanoverCountyEmergencyManagementNorthCarolinaStateEmergencyManagementProvidestateemergencyplanNorthCarolinaStateHighwayPatrolAttendkick offmeeting.

BrunswickNuclearPlant1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromDukeEnergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromNorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ 1)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwerenotprovidedbythecounties;recommendationsweremadeinareaswheretheuseofTCPswouldbenefitETE.TrafficcontrolisappliedatspecifiedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. Usedexistin gZonestodefineEvacuationRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto13Zonesalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousZonesforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"SpecialFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystemwhichcomputesETE(SeeAppendicesBandC).a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformation1AllreferencestoEPZrefertotheplumeexposurepathwayEPZ.

BrunswickNuclearPlant1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1derivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,DukeEnergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 2)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheBrunswickNuclearPowerPlant.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuationroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 TheBrunswickNuclearPlantLocationTheBrunswickNuclearPlant(BNP)islocatednearSouthport,BrunswickCounty,NorthCarolina.Thesiteisapproximately19milessouthofWilmington,NC.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofBrunswickandNewHanoverCountiesinNorthCarolina.AlargeportionoftheEPZismadeupoftheAtlanticOcean.NewHanoverandBrunswickCountiesareseparatedbytheCapeFearRiver.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheBNP.Thismapidentifiesth ecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.2HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

BrunswickNuclearPlant1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.BrunswickNuclearPlantLocation BrunswickNuclearPlant1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe BrunswickNuclearPlant1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

BrunswickNuclearPlant1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.BNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork BrunswickNuclearPlant1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD)modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmode lsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbasedanddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. MovetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutboundrelativetothelocationoftheBrunswickNuclearPlant.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthese BrunswickNuclearPlant1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1countermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2008study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Thehighwayrepresentationhasbeenupdatedwiththemostcurrentcharacteristics. Dynamicevacuationmodeling. Thepreviousstudymodeledalltrafficsignalsaspretimedsignalswithfixedsignaltimings.NUREG/CR 7002requirestheETEtoconsideractuatedsignalsinthetrafficsimulationmodelwheretheyexistinthere alworld.Actuatedsignalsallocategreentimebasedonthevolumeateachapproachandwillvarythroughoutthesimulation.Thisadaptiveintersectioncontrolhasimprovedcapacityatcriticalintersectionsalongcongestedcorridors,thusdecreasingETE.Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasisArcGISSoftwareusing2000USCensusblocks;blockcentroidmethodused;populationextrapolatedto2008.Population=35,186ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=35,250ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy2.38persons/householdforBrunswickCounty,2.29persons/householdforNewHanoverCountywasobtainedfromtheCensus,while1.43vehicles/householdwasadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.Using1.43vehicles/householdyields1.65persons/vehicle2.15persons/household,1.34evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.60persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmployeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementofficesaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1employee/vehicle.

TotalEmployees=1,554EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1.03employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=2,052EmployeeVehicles=1,998 BrunswickNuclearPlant1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTransitDependentPopulationAssumed5%ofthepopulationistransitdependentbasedontheaverageresultsoftelephonesurveysperformedinEPZsofUSnuclearplantsoverthepast2years.488Households.30Busesusedtoevacuate.EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof406peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring21busestoevacuate.Only1additionalpersonisregisteredasanoninstitutionalizedmobilityimpairedandwouldneedtransportation.TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationfrominternetsearches,phonecallstoChambersofCommerce,DepartmentsofTourismandlocalfacilities,anddataobtainedfromstateandcountyagencies.Transients=73,543TransientVehicles22,480TransientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedabouttransientattractionsinEPZ,supplementedbyphonecallsmadetofacili ties.Transients=63,410Vehicles=22,058SpecialFacilitiesPopulationSpecialFacilityPopulation=160Assumed75%ofpatientswereambulatory,10%ofpatientswerebed ridden,and15%ofpatientswerewheelchair bound.SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyDukeEnergy.Currentcensus=184BusesRequired=6WheelchairBusRequired=5AmbulancesRequir ed=10SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=4,423Staff=469BusesRequired=77SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=3,463Staff=379BusesRequired=86VansRequired=2Mini BusRequired=1 BrunswickNuclearPlant1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyVoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuatedItwasassumedthat50%ofthepopulationwithinthecircledefinedbythedistancetobeevacuatedbutoutsidetheevacuationregionwouldvoluntarilyevacuate.Itwasassumedthat35%ofthepopulationwithintheannularareabetweenthecircledefinedbythecentral"keyhole"oftheevacuationregionandtheEPZboundarywouldvoluntarilyevacuate.20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuation30%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheshadowarea.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize372links;294nodes498links;393nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2007.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.GISshape filesofsignallocationsandroadwaycharacteristicscreatedduringroadsurvey.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinMarch2012.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.DirectevacuationtodesignatedEvacuationShelter/RelocationSchool.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideoutwithaneighbororfriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.TripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonadaptedtelephonesurveyresultsofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivitiesfortheSeabrookNuclearPlantEPZ:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween15and210minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and150minutes.Allti mesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and300minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and270minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and105minutes.Alltimesmeasuredfromth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.

BrunswickNuclearPlant1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyWeatherNormalorRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrain.NormalorRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrain.ModelingIDYNEVSystem:TRADandPC DYNEVDYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.15.0SpecialEventsNoneconsidered4thofJulyFestivalinSouthportSpecialEventPopulation=19,500additionaltransientsand6,500transientvehiclesEvacuationCases15Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and10Scenariosproducing150uniquecases37Regionsand12Scenariosand12Scenariosproducing444uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50 th ,90 th ,95 thand100 thpercentileforfullEPZevacuationandallregions.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterMidweek,Midday,GoodWeather:3:40SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:7:20WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:3:30 SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:5:05 BrunswickNuclearPlant2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.NUREG/CR 7002wasusedasthebasisformostoftheassumptionsprovidedinthissection.KLDhasbeendoingETEstudiesforU.S.nuclearpowerplantsforover30years,including16newplantapplicationsduringthelast5years.Duringthattime,KLDhasworkedwithmorethan100stateandcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThenewplantapplicationETEstudieswerereviewedextensivelybytheU.S.NuclearRegulatoryCommission(NRC)andrefinedthroughtheRequestforAdditionalInformation(RAI)process.KLDdevelopedalistofkeyprojectass umptionsbasedonNUREG/CR 7002,onyearsofETEexperienceandinteractionwithoffsiteagencies,andonfeedbackfromtheNRCthroughRAIs.Thelistwasdiscussedwithstakeholdersattheprojectkickoffmeeting.Thelistwasthenrefinedbasedoninputsfromstakeholdersanddocumentedinatechnicalme mo.ThememowasapprovedbyallstakeholderspriortocomputingETE.2.1 DataEstimates1. PermanentresidentpopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebaseduponsurveysofmajoremployersintheEPZ.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyemergencymanagementoffices,agencies,ordepartmentsandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.15personsperhouseholdand1.34evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.03employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Transients:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondatagatheredfromlocaltransientfacilities.Datarangedfrom1personpervehicleto5peoplepervehicle.c. SpecialEvents:Transientsattendin gthe4 thofJulyFestivalinSouthportwerecalculatedwithdatareceivedfromDukeEnergy-avehicleoccupancyfactorof3.00.

BrunswickNuclearPlant2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofzonesthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.3. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthezonesincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.4. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofshadowevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).5. Atotalof12"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherconditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.6. Scenario12considersthecombin ationofroadclosuresforSR211(awestboundsegmenteastofintersectionwithStoneChimneyRd)andUS17(anorthboundlanefortheentiretyofthestudyarea).

BrunswickNuclearPlant2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenariosSeasonDayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11SummerWeekendMiddayGood4 thofJulyFestivalinSouthport12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodCombinationofroadclosuresforSR211andUS17 BrunswickNuclearPlant2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology BrunswickNuclearPlant2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofzonesformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 35percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1co mmuter;50percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore18percent(35%x50%=18%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacua tiontrip.Itisassumedthattheresponsestothetelephonesurveyregardingthereturnofcommuterspriortoevacuatingareapplicableforthisstudy.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRe gion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. EventhoughthetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwerenotprovidedbythecounties;recommendationsweremadeinareaswheretheuseofTCPswouldbenefitETE.TheTrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

BrunswickNuclearPlant2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buses,ambulances,andvanswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschool.b. Itisassumedparentswillpickupchildrenatdaycarecenterspriortoevacuation.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoEvacuationShelters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 1 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Onetypeofadverseweatherscenarioisconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios.Itisassumedthattherainbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentinth eEPZisassumed.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 2;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

1InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).2Agarwal,M.et.al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

BrunswickNuclearPlant2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbuscapacitieswerecalculatedbasedondatareceivedfromthecounties.Eachschoolhasaspecificbuscapacitybasedontheiremergencyplan.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport20peopleperbus.ItisassumedthatdriversforvehiclesidentifiedinTable8 5areavailable.11. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.12. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 3).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationMobilizationTimeforSpecialFacilitiesandTransitDependentPopulationRain90%90%NoEffect10MinuteIncrease*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

3Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheBNPEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(lodging,recreation)andthenleaveth earea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachZoneandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationdistribution).TheBNPEP Zissubdividedinto13Zones.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.15persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.34vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 9)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbytheZoneandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatethepopulationwithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,byZonebasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromBNP.This"populationdistribution"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbearguedthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductionca nbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforaperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.BNPEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlant3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationZone2000Population2010PopulationA2,0232,689B1,5972,774C608663D6,1745,868E2,4445,627F1,2231,148G2,4674,193H9511,711J229195K6,0857,841L1,8212,383M00N173158TOTAL25,79535,250EPZPopulationGrowth:36.65%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyZoneZone2010Population2010ResidentVehiclesA2,6891,740B2,7741,727C663413D5,8683,640E5,6273,499F1,148712G4,1932,613H1,7111,055J195121K7,8414,882L2,3831,480M00N1580 1 TOTAL35,25021,8821 VehiclesforresidentsonBaldHeadIslandarelocatedwithinZoneA BrunswickNuclearPlant3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheBNP(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthosefortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN555345NNE21,23413,237NE4,0412,516ENE00E00ESE00SE00SSE00S00SSW00SW00WSW14791W4,6962,925WNW1,7221,069NW1,068666NNW2,1401,332TOTAL35,60322,181 BrunswickNuclearPlant3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheBNPEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesth atattracttransients,including: LodgingFacilities Museums Marinas Campgrounds GolfCourses Beaches ParksSurveysoflodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZwereconductedtodeterminethenumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereuse dtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof10,579transientsin4,391vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.SurveysofmarinaswithintheEPZwereconductedtodetermineaveragedailyattendance,andpeakseasonofthemarinasintheEPZ.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesatea chofthesefacilities.Atotalof779transientsand361vehicleshavebeenassignedtomarinasintheEPZ.DatafromthepreviousETEstudywerecombinedwithdatacollect edforthisETEstudyandwereusedtocalculatethetotalnumberoftransientsandtransientvehiclesthatvisitbeacheswithintheEPZ.Atotalof53,493transientsand17,832vehicleswereusedinthepreviousstudyforCarolinaBeach,KureBeach,andOakIslandBeaches.Therewereanumberofvacationhomerentalfacilitiesincludedindatacollectionforthisstudy.Inordertoavoiddoublecounting,thetransientpopulationthatwouldbeattheserentalhomeswassubtractedfromthebeachpopulation.Atotalof5,409transientsand2,415vehicleswerecalculatedasbeingattheserent alpropertiesthroughouttheEPZ.Thetransientpopulationof5,409peopleand2,415vehicleswassubtractedfromthepreviousstudy'stransientbeachpopulation.Atotalof48,084transientsand15,417vehicleswereassignedtobeachesalongOakIsland,CarolinaBeach,andKureBeach.AllvehiclesthatprovidetransportationfortransientsonBaldHe adIslandareparkedattheferrylandinginSouthport.AccordingtothepreviousETEstudy,BaldHeadIslandbeacheshadatotalof815transients.Theaveragehouseholdsizeof2.15wasusedasavehicleoccupancyfactortocalculatethenumberofvehiclesforthosetransientsatBaldHeadIsland,yieldingatotalof379transientvehicles.Tot alpopulationforbeachesintheentireEPZequals48,899transientsand15,796vehicles.RefertoSection8.6forexplanationonhowtheirETEiscalculated.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Surveysofcampgroundswereconductedtodeterminethenumberoftransientsvisitingthesefacilitiesduringpeakseason.Thereareatotaloftwocampgroundsconsideredinthisstudy,CarolinaBeachStatePark&CampgroundandWoodsideTrailerpark&Campgrounds.Atotalof512transientsand286vehiclesareassignedtocampgroundswithintheEPZ.Surveysofparkswereconductedtodeterminethetotalnumberoftransientsduringpeakseason.ThetwoparksidentifiedinthisstudywereDutchmanCreekParkandCarolinaBeachStatePark.Atotalof508transientsand237transientvehicleswereassignedtoparkswithintheEPZ.Surveysofmuseums,historicsites,andtheN.C.Aquariumwereconductedtodeterminethenumberoftransientsvisitingeachoftheseplacesonatypicalday.Atotalof1,687transientsand795vehicleshavebeenassignedtomuseums,historicsites,andtheN.C.Aquarium.Surveysofgolfcourseswereconductedtodeterminethenumberofgolfersandvehiclesateachfacilityonatypicalpeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelfromoutsidethearea.Atotalof446transientsand192vehicleshavebeenassignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.Thenumberoftransientspervehiclevariedfrom1to5.AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 4presentsthenumberoftransien tsvisitingrecreationalareas,whileTableE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyZone.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddist ancefromtheplant.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesZoneTransientsTransientVehiclesA480902B653272C17560D30,01110,103E284141F00G3818H00J10030K22,3757,731L8,0562,801M00N1,2380TOTAL63,41022,0581 VehiclesfortransientsonBaldHeadIslandarelocatedwithinZoneA BrunswickNuclearPlant3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbyBrunswickandNewHanoverCountieswereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZ.InTableE 3,theEmployees(MaxShift)ismultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.03employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajorem ployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbyZone.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesZoneEmployeesEmployeeVehiclesA1,7771,729B5756C00D00E2222F00G00H00J188183K88L00M00N00TOTAL2,0521,998 BrunswickNuclearPlant3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector BrunswickNuclearPlant3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 2inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto20people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbuses,upto15people;andambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeoftheemergencyevent.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.Thesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutesthroughthestudyarea.AlthoughtherearenomajorroutesthattraversetheEPZ,US17doestraversethroughtheShadowRegion.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheShadowRegionduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.Th eAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,th ereare6,208vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and10)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventOnespecialevent(Scenario11)isconsideredfortheET Estudy-4thofJulyfestivalinSouthport.DatawereobtainedfromBrunswickCountyandDukeEnergy.AccordingtoDukeEnergy,approximately30,000peopleattendthefestivalin10,000vehicles.Itisestimatedthat65%oftheattendeesaretransients.Therefore,thisstudyconsiders19,500transientsand6,500additi onalvehiclesforthespecialevent(Scenario11).Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.BNPEPZExternalTrafficUpNodeDnNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic802828US 17SB29,0000.1070.51,5523,1048284284US 17NB29,0000.1070.51,5523,104TOTAL 6,2081 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122 HCM2010 BrunswickNuclearPlant3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.ThissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissectionaswellasinSection8.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof112,226peopleand56,831vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA2,689314801,777184335005,496B2,77432653570913004,429C663817500000846D5,8686830,0110060035,953E5,6276528422092006,090F1,148130000001,161G4,1934838002,017006,296H1,711200000001,731J19521001880000485K7,8419022,375804400030,754L2,383278,0560000010,466M000000000N15821,238000001,398Shadow0000007,12107,121Total35,25040663,4102,0521843,8037,1210112,226NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesincludebothmedicalfacilitiesandcorrectionalfacilities.

BrunswickNuclearPlant3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA1,74049021,7293214004,421B1,727427256040002,099C41326000000475D3,640610,1030010013,750E3,49961412204003,672F7122000000714G2,61341800102002,737H1,05520000001,057J1210301830000334K4,882107,73180140012,645L1,48022,801000004,283M000000000N000000000Shadow0000004,4366,20810,644Total21,8824222,0581,998321754,4366,20856,8311 VehiclesforresidentsonBaldHeadIslandarelocatedwithinZoneANOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

BrunswickNuclearPlant4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbasedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

BrunswickNuclearPlant4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentforrain.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacitymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeintersectionswhereflowca nbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobe comethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes BrunswickNuclearPlant4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 BrunswickNuclearPlant4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexit yofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity BrunswickNuclearPlant4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

BrunswickNuclearPlant4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheBrunswickNuclearPlantStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade)Eachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A BrunswickNuclearPlant4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedin tersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Wh ereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersectionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuatedsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contr a flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChapter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"Thesystemunderst udyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.ItisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicatethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiven ess(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.

BrunswickNuclearPlant4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantoftheseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink. Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams BrunswickNuclearPlant5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREG/CR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundAsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingeventwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Itisassumedthat:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthi scase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhentheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenal ert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarelikelytobehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertandnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately218squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapse BrunswickNuclearPlant5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1betweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertravelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbefore BrunswickNuclearPlant5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1beginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweek endsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGeneratio ntime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprec edingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave,orremovingsnowonlyafterthepreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time BrunswickNuclearPlant5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes,seeTable5 2.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0.0%5 7.1%10 13.3%15 26.5%20 46.9%25 66.3%30 86.7%35 91.8%40 96.9%45 100.0%

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.Thisdistributionisalsoapplicableforresidentstoleavestores,restaurant,parks,andotherlocationswithintheEPZ.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.Thisdist ributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00.0%4594.6%546.7%5094.6%1066.7%5594.6%1575.0%6099.6%2080.4%75100.0%2580.8%3094.2%3594.6%4094.6%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00.0%4090.7%511.2%4595.8%1032.4%5096.9%1549.4%5596.9%2061.4%6099.6%2567.6%75100.0%3084.2%3588.8%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate0 0.0%15 8.0%3038.8%4546.3%6067.8%7573.4%9074.9%10575.4%12085.6%13591.6%15091.8%16591.8%18094.9%19596.5%21096.5%22596.5%24098.7%255100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response BrunswickNuclearPlant5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofPopulationCompletingMobilizationActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome BrunswickNuclearPlant5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).5.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciples BrunswickNuclearPlant5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1areused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;4) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterth an3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bo thveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,no ta"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning,nosnoworsnowineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,using0.0%10.0%20.0%

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70.0%

80.0%

90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.537.542.5 47.552.557.5 67.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution BrunswickNuclearPlant5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1weightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,andD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter;snowclearancefollowsthepreparationfordeparture,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,andDproperlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.5.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuat ionconsistsofthepromptevacuationofthe2mileregion,whilethosewithinthe2to5 mileregionshelter in place.AsdiscussedinSection6,theBNPEPZdoesnotconsidera5mileevacuationandwillevacuatethepopulationtotheEPZboundary.Thusthisstudyconsidersastagedevacuat ionofthepopulationwithinthe2 miletoEPZboundaryregionasdiscussedbelow:1. Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2milestotheEPZboundarydownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhileth e2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2totheEPZboundarydownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2toEPZboundaryregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinzonesbeyond2mileswillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion BrunswickNuclearPlant5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthezonescomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is2:30forallscenarios.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis150minutesforgoodweather.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAccordingtoAnnexG,Appendix1oftheNorthCarolinaRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan,protectiveactionswithinwateroperationalareaswillbetakentoevacuatepeoplefromthreatenedareasandalsotopreventaccesstotheseareas.Theorganizationsresponsiblefortheseactionsareasfollows:1. UnitedStatesCoastGuard2. NCWildlifeCommission3. NCMarinePatrol4. NCHighwayPatrolAsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstud yassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Table5 9indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin2hours.Itisassumedthatthis2hourtimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersandothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)115 8% 8% 0% 1%

215 35% 35% 0% 5%

315 35% 35% 2% 16%

415 14% 14% 6% 19%

515 4% 4% 13% 15%

615 3% 3% 14% 13%

715 1% 1% 15% 5%

815 0% 0% 11% 2%

930 0% 0% 13% 12%

1015 0% 0% 6% 3%

1115 0% 0% 5% 1%

1260 0% 0% 9% 5%

1360 0% 0% 5% 3%

1430 0% 0% 1% 0%

15600 0% 0% 0% 0%

NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions 0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters BrunswickNuclearPlant5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)115 0% 0% 215 0% 1% 315 0% 3% 415 2% 4% 515 2% 3% 615 3% 3% 715 3% 1% 815 2% 0% 930 3% 3% 1030 65% 73% 1130 5% 1% 1230 9% 5% 1360 5% 3% 1430 1% 0% 15600 0% 0% *TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

BrunswickNuclearPlant5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2toEPZBoundary0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters BrunswickNuclearPlant6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingzonesthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Adescriptionofeachscenarioisdescribedbelo w:1. SummerMidweekMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolisinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.2. SummerMidweekMidday(adverse):ThisscenariorepresentsanadverseweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolsareinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.3. SummerWeekendMidday(normal&advers e):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.4. SummerMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweathermidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallyathomewithfewerdispersedwithintheEPZperformingeveningactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicaleveninglevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataverage BrunswickNuclearPlant6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1summerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummereveninglevels.Externaltrafficisreduced.5. WinterMidweekMidday(normal):Thisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.6. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepr esentsanadverseweatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesarefullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreati onalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.7. WinterWeekendMidday(normal&adverse):ThisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalweatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.8. WinterMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):Thisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalmidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarehomeandtheworkforceisatanighttimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalnighttimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreati onalfacilitiesareatwintereveninglevels.9. SpecialEvents(normal):ThisscenarioshouldreflectaspecialeventactivitywherepeaktouristpopulationsarepresentwithintheEPZ.Assumptionsmadeshouldreflectthetimeframeinwhichthespecialeventoccurs.ThepopulationattendingtheeventshouldbedevelopedconsideringbothtransientsandpermanentEPZresidentswhomaybeinattendancetoavoiddouble countingresidents.Theremainingpermanentresidentpercentage,thosenotattendingtheevent,willbeassumedtoevacuatefromtheirresidence.Workplaceswillbestaffedattypicallevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedatpeakspecialeventlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatappropriatelevelsbasedontheeventandtimeofyear.10. RoadwayImpactMidweekMidday(normal):Theintentofthisscenarioistorepres entavarietyofconditionsthatmayimpactaroadwaysegmentsuchasconstruction,flooding,vehicleaccidents,etc.Theroadwayimpactscenarioshould BrunswickNuclearPlant6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1assumethatduringasummermidweeknormalweatherdaytimescenario,onesegmentofoneofthetopfivehighestvolumeroadwayswillbeoutofserviceandunavailabletoevacuees.Atotalof37Regionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofzonesconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1andTable6 2.ThezoneconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincide swiththewinddirection.ThesesectorsextendtotheEPZboundary(RegionsR02throughR19).RegionsR01andR02representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2and10miles(EPZboundary),respectively.RegionsR20throughR36andR37areidenticaltoRegionsR03throughR19andR20,respectively;however,thosezonesbetween2milesand10miles(EPZboundary)arestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof12ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof37x12=444evacuationcases.Table6 3providesadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombi nationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 4presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 5presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR02-theentireEPZ.ThepopulationandvehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsideredforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 4,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.ThepercentagespresentedinTable6 4weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof35%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and50%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmen tisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.

BrunswickNuclearPlant6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweekendsandless(25%)duringtheweek.ThepeakpopulationvaluesareadjustedusingthescenariopercentagesprovidedinTable6 4.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisnotasignificantamountoflodgingandcampgroundsofferingovernightaccommoda tionsintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobelowduringeveninghours-20%forsummerand5%forwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisestimatedtobe50%.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 4,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 5forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-4thofJulyFestivalinSouthport-wasconsideredasScenario11.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario11,and0%forallotherscenarios.Forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios,itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%oftheregularschoolyearenrollment.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbuse sforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

BrunswickNuclearPlant6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR012 MileRadiusxxR02FullEPZALLZONESINEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR03NNW,N328° 009°xxxxxR04NNE010° 021°xxxxxxR05022° 038°xxxxxxxR06NE039° 051°xxxxxR07ENE052° 090°xxxxxxR08E091° 112°xxxxxR09ESExxxxR10SE,SSExxxxxxR11113° 179°xxxxxxxR12S180° 195°xxxxxxR13SSW196° 236°xxxxxxR14SWxxxxxR15WSW237° 271°xxxxxxR16W272° 288°xxxxxR17WNWxxxxR18289° 316°xxxxxR19NW317° 327°xxxxN/AALLZONESINEPZSeeRegionR02 BrunswickNuclearPlant6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.DescriptionofStagedEvacuationRegionsStagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR20NNW,N329° 009°xxxxxR21NNE010° 021°xxxxxxR22022° 038°xxxxxxxR23NE039° 051°xxxxxR24ENE052° 090°xxxxxxR25E091° 112°xxxxxR26ESExxxxR27SE,SSExxxxxxR28113° 179°xxxxxxxR29S180° 195°xxxxxxR30SSW196° 236°xxxxxxR31SWxxxxxR32WSW237° 271°xxxxxxR33W272° 288°xxxxxR34WNWxxxxR35289° 316°xxxxxR36NW317° 327°xxxxR37ALLZONESINEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZone(s)Shelter in PlaceZone(s)Evacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.BNPEPZZones BrunswickNuclearPlant6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenariosSeasonDayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11SummerWeekendMiddayGood4 thofJulyFestivalinSouthport12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodCombinationofroadclosuresforSR211andUS17 BrunswickNuclearPlant6 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic118%82%96%25%22%0%10%100%100%218%82%96%25%22%0%10%100%100%32%98%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%42%98%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%52%98%10%20%20%0%0%100%40%618%82%100%10%22%0%100%100%100%718%82%100%10%22%0%100%100%100%82%98%10%50%20%0%0%100%100%92%98%10%50%20%0%0%100%100%102%98%10%5%20%0%0%100%40%112%98%10%100%20%100%0%100%100%1218%82%96%25%22%0%10%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees..................................................EPZemployeeswholiveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Resid entsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshow nisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

BrunswickNuclearPlant6 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 5.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 13,83118,0511,9185,5154,82518426,20840,360 23,83118,0511,9185,5154,82518426,20840,360 338321,49920022,0584,477426,20854,678 438321,49920022,0584,477426,20854,678 538321,4992004,4124,477422,48333,458 63,83118,0511,9982,2064,841175426,20837,333 73,83118,0511,9982,2064,841175426,20837,333 838321,49920011,0294,477426,20843,744 938321,49920011,0294,477426,20843,744 1038321,4992001,1034,477422,48330,177 1138321,49920022,0584,4776,500 426,20861,178 123,83118,0511,9185,5154,82518426,20840,360 Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR02)

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover37regionswithintheBNPEPZandthe12EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 ShadowEvacuation"Shadowevacuees"arepeoplewithin15milesoftheBNPforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate.Shadowevacuationisassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheBNPEPZaddressestheissueofshadowevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.Withi ntheEPZ,20percentofpermanentresidentslocatedinzoneoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof35,603peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4forthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion(includingexternalexternaltraffic),travelingawayfromtheBNPlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationForthisstudy,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediat ely.2. Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2totheEPZboundarydownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2 miletotheEPZboundarydownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2 miletoEPZboundaryregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 9illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR02)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,weekend,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario3).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemel ementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedintheseFiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displaysthedevelopingcongestionwithinthepopulationcentersofSouthport,OakIsland,KureBeachandCarolinaBeach,just30minutesafterth eAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).NotethatSR 211,aprimaryevacuationroute,isalreadyexperiencingLOSF.CongestionbeginstodeveloponSR 133andtheSwain'sCutBridge,astheevacueeshaveonlytwooptionstogetoffofOakIsland.SimilartoOakIsland,US 421inCarolinaBeachandKureBeachisalsocongestedasthisistheonlyexitrouteoffofthatisland.

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AtonehouraftertheATE,Figure7 4displaysfully developedcongestionwithinthesepopulationcentersandalongthemajorevacuationrouteswithintheEPZ.CongestionbuildsintheShadowRegionalongSR 211,SR 87,OldOceanHwyWest,GallowayRd,OldOceanHwyEast,andMillCreekRd.QueuesbegintodevelopwhileevacueesaccessUS 17-aprimaryevacuationrouteleadin gtomajorpopulationcentersandreceptioncentersbeyondthestudyarea.CongestionalongSR 211nowextendsfromSouthporttoUS 17.Thishas"encouraged"manyevacueesintheareatoseekalternativeroutestothenorth,primarilyalongSR 133.SR 133beginstodevelopmoderatelevelsoftrafficcongestionnorthofSouthport.CongestioncontinuestobuildalongthetwobridgesexitingOakIsland.CongestionpersistsatthebottleneckattheUS 421BridgeintheCarolinaBeachareaasvehiclesmergeontoUS 421toexittheisland.At2hoursaftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 5,congestionpersistsalongSR 211,SR 87,andUS 421.CongestiononSR 133isnowclearinthevicinityofSouthport.Southportisalsoclearofcongestion.

At4hoursand15minutesaftertheATE,congestionhasdissipatedonSR 87,butpersistsalongUS 421andSR 211.OakIslandandCarolinaBeacharestillheavilycongested.Figure7 6showsKureBeach(ZoneL)completelyclearofcongestion.CongestionpersistsalongSR 211,SR 87,OldOceanHwyWest,GallowayRd,OldOceanHwyEast,andMillCreekRd,asqueuesofevacuatingvehiclesbuildatstopcontrolledintersectionswithUS 17.ThesequeuesextendtotheEPZboundary.Withinthenexthourandfiveminutes,congestionalongSR 87hasdi ssipated,andcongestionhascompletelyclearedalongUS 421withintheEPZ.AsshowninFigure7 7at5hoursand20minutesaftertheATE,EastOakIslandDr,MidwayRdSE,andSR 211arestillexperiencingLOSFastheyservicevehiclesexitingOakIsland.QueuesalongSR 211,SR 87,OldOceanHwyWest,GallowayRd,OldOceanHwyEast,an dMillCreekRdarestilldisplayingLOSF,andcontinuetoimpedetheegressofvehiclesoutoftheEPZ.Itisnotuntil6hoursand45minutesaftertheATEthattheEPZisclearofcongestion,whichiswellafterthecompletionoftrip generation(mobilization)time,asshowninFigure7 8.ThelastremnantsofcongestionarealongSR 211andGilbertRdSEintheShadowRegion,aswellasthestopcontrolledintersectionsonSR 87andMillCreekRdthatintersectUS 17.At7hoursand30minutesaftertheATE,Fig ure7 9showsthatcongestionhascompletelysubsidedalongSR 211andthestudyareaiscompletelyclearofcongestion.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 10throughFigure7 21.TheseFiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR02)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 10,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentraffic BrunswickNuclearPlant7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1demandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclea ratthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1throughTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall37EvacuationRegionsandall12EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3throughTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 Mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindtotheEPZboundary.Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 9.Mostofthecongestionislocatedbeyondthe2 mileregion;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR01(2 mileregion)generallyrangebetween2:35(hr:min)and2:45fornon specialeventscenarios. The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR02(fullEPZ)isgenerallyanhourlonger(overtwoandhalfhourslongerduringsummerweekendscenarios).

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1The100 thpercentileETEforRegionR01arethesameasthemobilizationtimeor5minuteslonger.ExcludingSummerWeekend,SpecialEvent,andRoadwayImpactScenarios,theETEforregionsR02toR19closelymirrormobilizationtime.DuringSummerWeekendScenarios(Scenarios3and4),the100 thpercentileETEissignificantlylongerforthoseregionswhichincludetheevacuationofOakIslandduetotheadditionaltransientspresentduringthesetimes.ComparisonofScenarios3and11inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-4 thofJulyFestivalinSouthport-hasasignificantimpactonETEatthe90 thpercentileforallregionswhichdonotevacuateZoneK.TheseregionsexperiencesignificantincreaseinETEbyupto1hourand25minutesfornon stagedcasesduetotheincreasedcongestionalongSR 211causedbytheadditional6,500specialeventvehicles.The90 thpercentileETEforthoseregionswhichcontainZoneKaredictatedbycongestionatCarolinaBeach.The100 thpercentileETEincreasesbyasmuchas1hourfornon stagedcases.ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-acombinationofroadclosuresonUS 17(onenorthboundlanefortheentiretyofthestudyarea)andSR 211(awestboundsegmentjusteastoftheinters ectionwithStoneChimneyRd)doeshaveamaterialimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE.TheETEforkeyholeregionswithwindfromthenorth northeast,northeast,east northeast,east,andeast southeast(RegionsR02,R04throughR09,andR11),experienceincreasesupto3hours.WindfromthesedirectionscarriestheplumeoverZonesA,B,C,D,E,andF,whichroutestrafficontoSR 211westbound.Withthi sroadclosed,evacueesaredetouredontoMidwayRdSEnorthboundtowardsUS 17.DuetothenorthboundlaneclosureforUS 17thenorthboundroadwaycapacityisreducedtohalf,significantlyincreasingcongestion.ThecombinationofclosingSR 211andUS 17increasescongestionandprolon gsETE.EvacuationregionsthatdonotdependuponSR 211forevacuationarenotmateriallyimpactedbytheroadwayclosure.The100 thpercentileETEincreasesbyasmuchas2hoursand5minutesfornon stagedcases.Theresultsoftheroadwayimpactscenarioindicatethateventssuchasadverseweather,whichcouldfloodasectionofSR 211asitpassesovertheLockwoodFollyRiver,ortrafficaccidentswhichclosealaneonUS 17,couldimpactETE.Statean dlocalpolicecouldconsidertrafficmanagementtacticssuchasusingtheshoulderoftheroadwayasatravellaneorre routingoftrafficalongotherevacuationroutestoavoidoverwhelmingUS 17.AlleffortsshouldbemadetoremovetheblockageonUS 17.IffloodingisanticipatedalongSR 211,stateandlocalpolicemayconsideralertingth epublicofnewroutingpatternstolessencongestionMidwayRd.NUREG/CR 7002recommendsthattheETEstudyconsiderpotentialenhancementsthatcouldimproveETE.AccordingtotheInstituteofNuclearPowerOperations(INPO)timelinefortheMarch2011accidentattheFukushimaDaiichiPowerStation,nearly18hourselapsedbetweenthelossofpoweratthesiteandthefirstreleasetotheatmosphere.The90 thpercentileETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR02)islessthan61/2hoursforallnon specialscenarios.ThepossiblecountermeasurestoreduceETEare:

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Reducethenumberofvehiclesontheroadbyeducatingthepublictousefewervehiclestoevacuate.Thisisverydifficulttoimplementasevacueesareunlikelytoleaveasignificanteconomicassetsuchasapersonalvehiclebehind. Usecontrafloworreverse laning.Thistechniqueissomanpowerandequ ipmentintensive,90percentofevacueeswillhavealreadylefttheEPZbythetimecontraflowisestablished.Assuch,ETEbenefitswouldbeminimal.Also,contraflowisasignificantliabilityinthatvehiclesaretravelingthewrongwayonaroad.Mostoffsiteagenciesarehesitanttousecontraflowforthisreasonalone. Identifyspecialtreatmentsatcriticalintersections-i.e.ifnorthboundandeastboundarebothviableevacuationdirectionsfromtheplant,conesandbarricadescouldbeusedtochannelizetheintersectionsuchthatonetrafficstreamisdirectednorthboundandtheothereastboundtoeliminateanyvehicleconflictattheintersectionandkeeptheintersectionflowingcontinuously.ThisisalsomanpowerandequipmentdependentandwillhavelittleimpactonETE.CriticalintersectionswereidentifiedwheretheuseofTrafficControlcouldlessenETE,refertoAppendixG.WiththeexceptionofTrafficControl,nootherenhancementsarerecommendedforthissite.The90 thpercentileETEaresignificantlylessthantheelapsedtimebeforeareleaseduringtherecentnuclearaccidentinJapan.Significantmanpowerandequipmentwouldbeneededtoimplementpotentialenhancements.ThetimeneededtosecureneededpersonnelandequipmentwouldoffsetanypotentialETEbenefits.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR20throughR36,andR37arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR03through19,andR02,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustconsiderthebenefits(reducedETE)forthoseevacuatingfro mwithinthe2 mileregionaswellastheadverseimpact(increasedETE)tothoseevacueesbeyond2mileswhosignificantlydelaythestartoftheirevacuation.WhenevacuatingtheentireEPZ(RegionR02),theETEforthe2 milere gionincreasesbyasmuchas2hoursand25minutesasshowninTable7 3.ThisisduetothetrafficcongestiononSR 211justoutsidethe2 mileregion.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 9,SR 211persistsjustoutsidethe2 mileregionforabout5hoursand15minutesanddelaystheegressofthoseevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregion.Whenonlythe2 mileregio nisevacuated,theadditionalvehiclesevacuatingfromsurroundingZonesarenotontheroadwaysandthe2 mileregionevacueesarenotdelayed.Comparingre gionsR20throughR36andR37withregionsR12throughR20andR02inTable7 1indicatesthatthe90thpercentileETEincreasesbyasmuchas1hourwhenstagingevacuation.AsshowninFigure5 5,stagingtheevacuationcausesasignificant"spike"(sharpincrease)inmobilization(trip generationrate)ofevacuatingvehicles:nearly70percentoftheevacuatingvehiclesbetween2milesandtheEPZboundarywhohaveshelteredinplacewhile BrunswickNuclearPlant7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1residentswithin2milesevacuated,begintheirevacuationtripovera15minutetimeframe.Thisspikeoversaturatesevacuationroutes,causingsignificanttrafficcongestion,reroutingandprolongedETE.AcomparisonofETEforgeographicallyidenticalregionsRegionsR20throughR36andR37withtherespectiveETEforRegionsR03throughR19andR02inTable7 2indica testhatthe100thpercentileETEincreases(byasmuchas35minutes)for19ofthe216stagedevacuationcasesconsideredanddecreasesfor11ofthe216cases(byasmuchas15minutes).ThosecaseswhichincreasearemostlyforScenario12-theroadwayclosure,an dtheevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR02).ThespikeintrafficfurthercompoundsthebottleneckonSR 211westboundandprolongsETE.ThosecaseswhichdecreaseareallweekendscenariosforregionswherebothOakIslandandSt.James(ZonesDandE)evacuate.Thisisdiscussedinmoredetailbelow.Theremaining186casesarenotaffectedbecausetheirETEisdictatedbytripgenerationtime.AsshowninTable7 3,theETEforregionR01(2 mileregiononly)isabout2:35,onaverage,fornon specialeventscenarios.Whenevacuatingakeyholeregionbeyond2miles,theETEforth e2 mileregionincreasessignificantlyasshownforR03throughR19inTable7 3(byasmuchas2:25forRegionsR04throughR08).ThereasonforthisincreaseistheevacuationofOakIsland(ZoneD)andSt.James(ZoneE).AsshowninSection3,thereareapproximately7,000residentsand10,000transientsevacuatingfromthesetwozones.EvacueesfromOakIslan darelimitedtotwobridgesevacuatingfromtheisland.Theeasternmostbridge(LongBeachRd/SR 133)intersectsSR 211justoutsidethe2 mileregion.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 9,SR 211westboundissignificantlycongestedformostoftheevacuat ion.Asaresult,thoseevacueesfromOakIslandtravelingnorthboundonLongBeachRdre routeeastboundontoSR 211toDosherCutoffRdtoaccessSR 133andSR 87northboundtoevacuateth earea.Indoingso,theyenterthe2 mileregionandsignificantlyincreasethenumberofvehiclespassingthroughthe2 mileregion.Thiscausesincreasedtrafficcongestioninthe2 mileregionandsignificantlyincreasesETE.ThisimpactismostsignificantforsummerweekendscenarioswhentransientactivitypeaksonOakIsland.Comparingre gionsR20throughR36andR37withregionsR12throughR20andR02inTable7 3indicatesthatthe90thpercentileETEincreases(for197ofthe216cases)byasmuchas40minutesanddecreases(for19ofthe216cases)byasmuchas20minuteswhe nstagingevacuation.ThosecaseswhichdecreasearethestagedevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR37)andthosekeyholeregionswhereinbothOakIslandandSt.Jamesevacuate(RegionsR22throughR25).TheETEforthesestagedregionsdecreasesrelativetotheirun stagedregionsbecauseallofthetransientsonOakIslandstarttheirevacuation2hoursand30minutesbeforetheresidentsdoasdiscussedinSection5.Thus,whenresidentsbegintheirevacuation,manyofthetransientshavealreadylefttheisland,trafficcongestionisless,andETEaredecreased.Again,theimpactismostsignificantonsummerweekendswhentransientactivitypeaks.Table7 4indicatesthat9ofthe216stagedevacuationcasesresultinincreasedETEforthe2 mileregionwithincreasesasmuchas1hourand5minutesforScenario11.Theseincreases BrunswickNuclearPlant7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1areduetotheadditionalvehiclespresentforthespecialeventinZoneC.Again,theseincreasesareprimarilyforthoseregionswhereOakIslandisevacuating.TheimpactofstagedevacuationforkeyholeregionsextendingtotheEPZboundaryislesspronouncedatthe100thpercentile.AsshowninTable7 4,ETEfor211ofthe216stagedevacuationcasesarewithin5minut esoftheirun stagedcounterparts.Thereare5caseswhichshowamaximumdecreaseof20minutesasaresultofstagedevacuationwhencomparedtotheirun stagedcounterparts.Aspreviouslymentioned,thosecaseswhichdecreaseareth estagedevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR37)andthosekeyholeregionswhereinbothOakIslandandSt.Jamesevacuate(RegionsR22throughR25).Insummary,stagedevacuationwouldbebeneficialforevacuatingtheresidentpopulationwithinthe2 mileregionofBNP.ThetrafficcongestionleavingOakIslandresultsinreroutingsomeofthetrafficintothe2 mileregionandsignificantlyincreasesthetimetoclearthe2milearea.Althoughstagedevacuationisdisadvantageoustothosebeyond2milesformostcases,itdoesexpeditetheevacuationofthoseevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregion.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain* SpecialEven t 4thofJulyFestivalinSouthport RoadClosure(OnenorthboundlaneonUS 17combinedwithaclosedsectionofSR 211justeastoftheintersectionwithStoneChimneyRd)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhilethes eScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scen arios(7)and(9)forrainapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:fromN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.Theapplic abledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR02throughR19)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistanceth attheselectedRegionextendsfromtheBNP.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionid entifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthenortheast(NE).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea2 mileradiusanddownwindtoEPZboundary.* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectionfromtheNE(towardstheSW)andreadRegionR06inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR06.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR06;itcontainstheETEvalueof5:50.

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionandEPZR012:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R023:453:505:055:353:253:303:403:554:103:205:456:052 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR032:352:352:302:302:402:352:352:352:352:453:502:35R042:503:004:255:002:452:352:453:003:202:405:003:35R053:353:505:255:553:203:203:353:504:153:156:056:05R063:303:505:205:503:203:203:353:554:153:156:006:00R073:353:555:206:003:353:253:404:054:303:206:006:35R083:403:505:255:503:253:203:404:004:253:155:556:20R093:153:303:053:203:103:153:303:103:203:104:054:10R103:103:203:003:002:503:103:253:053:052:553:504:05R113:253:403:153:303:103:303:353:153:303:104:204:40R122:553:003:303:452:403:053:152:402:452:453:403:25R132:352:354:254:502:352:402:402:553:152:454:152:35R142:352:354:254:552:352:402:402:553:152:454:152:35R152:352:354:254:502:352:402:402:553:152:454:202:35R162:302:352:202:202:352:352:352:302:302:403:452:30R172:302:352:202:202:352:352:352:302:302:403:402:30R182:302:352:202:202:352:352:352:302:302:403:402:30R192:302:352:302:302:402:352:352:352:352:453:502:30 BrunswickNuclearPlant7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR202:502:502:452:502:502:502:502:502:502:503:402:50R213:253:304:255:003:303:303:353:203:353:404:554:00R224:054:155:256:004:054:104:204:104:254:106:056:15R234:054:155:205:504:054:104:204:054:254:106:056:15R244:104:255:206:054:104:154:254:154:354:106:106:35R254:054:155:256:004:054:104:154:154:354:106:006:25R263:503:553:453:553:553:504:003:504:003:554:054:45R273:453:553:403:503:353:503:553:353:403:354:054:20R284:004:153:554:003:504:054:103:554:053:554:305:05R293:353:403:353:553:253:353:453:203:303:303:503:50R303:253:304:254:503:303:303:353:253:303:354:153:25R313:253:354:254:553:303:303:353:253:303:354:153:25R323:253:354:254:503:303:303:353:253:303:354:203:25R332:502:502:452:502:552:502:552:502:502:553:402:50R342:502:502:452:452:502:502:502:502:502:553:352:50R352:502:502:452:452:502:502:502:502:502:553:352:50R362:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R374:104:155:055:354:004:104:154:154:304:005:506:35

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionandEPZR015:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R025:505:506:557:305:405:456:005:405:405:407:257:502 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR035:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R045:405:405:406:155:405:405:405:405:405:406:055:40R055:405:456:307:105:405:405:405:405:405:407:257:10R065:405:406:257:005:405:405:405:405:405:407:257:05R075:405:456:307:105:405:405:405:405:405:407:257:45R085:405:456:306:505:405:405:405:405:405:407:157:40R095:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R105:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R115:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:406:25R125:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R135:405:405:406:005:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R145:405:405:405:555:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R155:405:405:406:005:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R165:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R175:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R185:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R195:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40 BrunswickNuclearPlant7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR205:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R215:405:405:406:105:405:405:405:405:405:406:005:40R225:405:406:257:105:405:405:455:405:405:407:307:25R235:405:406:207:005:405:405:455:405:405:407:257:25R245:405:406:157:055:405:405:405:405:405:407:258:00R255:405:406:207:005:405:405:405:405:405:407:107:40R265:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R275:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R285:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:406:55R295:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R305:405:405:406:105:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R315:405:405:406:055:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R325:405:405:406:055:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R335:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R345:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R355:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R365:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:405:40R375:506:106:357:205:406:006:006:056:155:407:358:10

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR012:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R023:003:104:305:002:452:503:003:203:352:455:303:55R032:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R042:352:354:004:302:402:352:352:453:052:454:503:10R053:003:104:305:002:452:452:553:203:352:455:253:45R062:553:104:204:452:402:452:553:203:352:455:203:45R072:553:104:254:452:402:452:553:203:352:455:153:45R082:503:054:104:402:402:452:553:103:252:455:103:45R092:352:402:352:352:402:352:402:402:402:453:552:50R102:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R112:352:402:352:352:402:352:402:402:402:454:002:50R122:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R132:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:352:35R142:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:402:35R152:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R162:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R172:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R182:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35R192:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:402:402:453:502:35 BrunswickNuclearPlant7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR202:452:502:452:452:502:452:502:502:502:503:452:45R213:053:054:004:303:103:053:103:003:053:104:453:15R223:203:204:154:503:253:203:253:153:253:255:203:55R233:153:204:054:353:203:203:203:153:203:205:153:50R243:153:204:104:353:203:153:203:153:203:205:103:55R253:103:154:004:303:153:153:153:103:153:155:053:50R262:553:002:553:003:002:553:003:003:003:003:453:00R272:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R282:553:002:553:003:002:553:003:003:003:003:503:00R292:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R302:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R312:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:352:45R322:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:552:45R332:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R342:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R352:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R362:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:502:502:503:452:45R373:203:204:104:503:253:203:203:153:253:255:204:05

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR015:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R025:355:355:306:055:305:355:355:305:305:306:305:35R035:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R045:355:355:305:355:305:305:355:305:305:305:505:35R055:355:355:306:105:305:305:355:305:305:306:305:35R065:355:355:305:505:305:355:355:305:305:306:255:35R075:355:355:305:455:305:355:355:305:305:306:155:35R085:355:355:305:355:305:355:355:305:305:306:205:35R095:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:305:35R105:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R115:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R125:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R135:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R145:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R155:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R165:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R175:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R185:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R195:355:355:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR205:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R215:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:505:35R225:305:305:305:555:305:355:355:305:305:306:355:35R235:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:306:255:35R245:305:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:306:205:30R255:355:355:305:355:305:355:355:305:305:306:105:35R265:355:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R275:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:35R285:355:355:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:305:35R295:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R305:305:355:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R315:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R325:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R335:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:305:30R345:305:305:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R355:305:305:305:305:305:305:355:305:305:305:305:35R365:305:305:305:305:305:355:355:305:305:305:305:30R375:305:305:305:555:305:355:355:305:305:306:355:35

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR012 MileRadiusxxR02FullEPZALLZONESINEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR03NNW,N328° 009°xxxxxR04NNE010° 021°xxxxxxR05022° 038°xxxxxxxR06NE039° 051°xxxxxR07ENE052° 090°xxxxxxR08E091° 112°xxxxxR09ESExxxxR10SE,SSExxxxxxR11113° 179°xxxxxxxR12S180° 195°xxxxxxR13SSW196° 236°xxxxxxR14SWxxxxxR15WSW237° 271°xxxxxxR16W272° 288°xxxxxR17WNWxxxxR18289° 316°xxxxxR19NW317° 327°xxxxN/AALLZONESINEPZSeeRegionR02Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceZone(s)Evacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 6.DescriptionsofEvacuationRegionsStagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR20NNW,N329° 009°xxxxxR21NNE010° 021°xxxxxxR22022° 038°xxxxxxxR23NE039° 051°xxxxxR24ENE052° 090°xxxxxxR25E091° 112°xxxxxR26ESExxxxR27SE,SSExxxxxxR28113° 179°xxxxxxxR29S180° 195°xxxxxxR30SSW196° 236°xxxxxxR31SWxxxxxR32WSW237° 271°xxxxxxR33W272° 288°xxxxxR34WNWxxxxR35289° 316°xxxxxR36NW317° 327°xxxxR37ALLZONESINEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZone(s)Shelter in PlaceZone(s)Evacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuation BrunswickNuclearPlant7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.BNPShadowRegion BrunswickNuclearPlant7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat4Hours,15MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat5Hours,20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat6Hours,45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat7Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate BrunswickNuclearPlant7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR02Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR020 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR02Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR020 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360390420 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360390420450 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR02Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR020 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR02Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR020 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario8)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR02Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR020 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario10)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

BrunswickNuclearPlant7 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR02Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR020 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360390420 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360390420450 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)2MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles(buses,ambulances,vans).Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschool sandmedicalfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.BasedondiscussionwiththeDukeEnergyandtheoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvac uate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Thelocationofbusdepotsimpactsthetimetotravelfromthebusdepotstothefacilitiesbeingevacuated.Locationsofbusdepotswerenotidentifiedinthisstudy.Rather,theoffsiteagencieswereaskedtofacto rthelocationofthedepotsandthedistancetotheEPZintotheestimateofmobilizationtime.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizationactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointh eirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheBNPEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtoarelocationschoolatemergencyactionlevelsofSiteAreaEmergencyorhigher,andthatparentsshouldpickschoolchildrenupattheirappropriaterelocationschool.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtohostschools.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Itisassumedthatchildrenatdaycarecentersarepickedupby BrunswickNuclearPlant8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1parentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtotheEvacuationShelters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuat ebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedarid ewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanaveragebusoccupancyof20personsbasedondiscussionswithDukeEnergy.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor406people.Therefore,atotalof21busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheBNPEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.11avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(1.81%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm16,395(numberofhouseholds)x0.0181x1.11,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(26.0%),whoareathome,equal(1.60 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(16,395x0.260x0.35x0.50),as35%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,50%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(53.5%),whoareathome,equal(2.13-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto16,395x0.535x.13x(0.35x0.50)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZ.Table8 2alsodisplaystotalenrollmentalongwiththenumberofstaffthatwillneedtransportation.Thecolumnsentitled"BusesRequired","VansRequired",and"Mini BusRequired"specifyth enumberofresourcesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),th eestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdoesnotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,is45(2.25peopleperseatx20averageseatsperbus)accordingtotheBrunswickCountySchoolsREP.NewHanoverCountyelectedtousethesamedatafromthepreviousETEstudyandrequire7busestoevacuate.* AccordingtotheBrunswickCountySchoolsREP,staffwillaccomp anystudentsduringevacuation.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.Implementationofaprocesstoconfirmindividualschooltransportationneedspriortobusdispatchmayimprovebusutilization.Inthisway,thenumberofbuse sdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuat eschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistofthere locationschoolsforeachschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtotheseschoolswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.184peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,th esefacilities.ThecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbyDukeEnergy.Datawasnotavailableontheaveragecensusforeachfacilityduetofluctuatingattendance.ThisdataispresentedinTable8 4.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingthat2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip,thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertrip,andthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes20ambulatorypatientspertrip.

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhatinefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwascalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR02(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussi onofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.ItisassumedthatthereareenoughdriversavailabletomanallresourceslistedinTable8 5.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presen tsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,schoolbusdriverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)BasedondiscussionswithDukeEnergyandoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof3minutes(8minutesforrain)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservice BrunswickNuclearPlant8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1passengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing20minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies20st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis30minutesperbusinrain.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbyDukeEnergyandoffsiteagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetableisthenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,andhomeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersindicatetherearesufficientresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat93minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus3minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriaterelocationcenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificat ionnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7andTable8 8forschoolevacuation,andinTable8 10andTable8 11forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedi stancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytotheRelocationSchoolwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mphand40mphforgoodweatherandrain,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7,Table8 8,Table8 10,andTable8 10to45mph(40mphforrain-10%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed45mph,astheschoolbu sspeedlimitforstateroutesinNorthCarolinais45mph.Table8 7(goodweather)andTable8 8(rain)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)TheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateun tilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)TheelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestheRelocationSchool.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min+3+24=2:00forSouthBrunswickHighSchool,withgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotheRelocationSchoolisde terminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuationtime.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),approximately75percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately105minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Severalzonesrequiremultiplebuses(Table8 9).Thestartofserviceontheseroutesisseparatedby10minuteheadways,asshowninTable8 10andTable8 11.Forzonesthatrequireasinglebus,alongermobilizationtimeof125minutesisused,toserviceagreaterpercentageofthetransit dependentpopulation.Theuseofbusheadwaysensurestha tthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinraintoaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.Accordingtothecounties'emergencyplans,pickuppoints/routeswillbeestablishedandannouncedviaEASmessagesforthosewhoaretransitdependent.Thecountyemergencyplansdonotdefinebusroutestoservicethesepick uplocations.The10busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2andFigure8 3anddescribedinTable8 9weredesignedaspartofth isstudytoservicethemajorroutesthrougheachzone.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepickuppoints/routesthatwillbeannouncedviaEASmessage,an dthattheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe105to125minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof20minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor20individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Alongerpickuptimeof30minutesisusedforrain.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementi onedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 10andTable8 11presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweatherandrain,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthefirstbusservicingZoneAiscomputedas105+25+20=2:30forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minut es).Here,25minutesisthetimetotravel17.6milesat42.9mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat105minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoEvacuationShelters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytotheEvacuationSheltersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtotheEvacuationShelter.TheEvacuationSheltersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraone waveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcouldexceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof45mphand40mphforgoodweatherandrain,respectively,wereappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit BrunswickNuclearPlant8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetotheEvacuationShelter.Thesecond waveETEforthefirstbusrouteservicingZoneAiscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* BusarrivesatEvacuationShelterat2:45ingoodweather(2:30toexitEPZ+15minutetrav eltimetoEvacuationShelter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:15minutes(equaltotraveltimetoevacuationshelter)+47minutes[(17.6miles@45mph)x2]=62minutes(note,busreturnstotheEPZ,travelsba cktothestartofroute,andthentraversestherouteasecondtimetoexittheEPZ).* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:20minutes.* BusexitsEPZattime2:30+0:15+0:15+0:62+0:20=4:25(roundeduptonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvi sorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 10andTable8 11.TheaverageETEforatwo waveevacuat ionoftransit dependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentile.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEvacuationShelterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesThetransitoperationsforthesefacilitiesaresimilartothoseforschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof20patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.* Thepassengerloadingtimewillbelongeratapproximatelyoneminuteperpatienttoaccountforthetimetomovepati entsfrominsidethefacilitytothevehicles.Table8 4indicatesthat6busruns,5wheelchairbusruns,and10ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable8 5,thecountiescancollectivelyprovide324buses,3vans,33wheel chairtransportvehicles,and35ambulances.Thus,therearesufficientresourcestoevacuatetheambulatory,wheelchairbound,andbedriddenpersonsfromthemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 12andTable8 13summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweatherandrain.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrain)Region2,cappedat45mph(40mphforrain),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlant8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1boundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses,wheelchairbusesandambulancesare30,75,and30minutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEfortheOceanTrailConvalescentCenterwith16ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+16x5+21=191min.or3:15roundeduptothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedi calfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughtheEvacuationCenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythecounties,thereisonly1homeboundspecialneedspersoninNewHanoverCountywhorequirestransportationassistancetoevacuate.NodatawasreceivedfromBrunswickCountypertainingtohomeboundspecialneeds.Detailsonwhetherornotthispersonisambulatory,wheelch air boundorbedriddenwerenotavailable.Thereexistsexcesstransportationresourcestoaccommodatethisindividual,regardlessoftransportationneeds.Itisassumedlatchkeychildrenareconsideredwithinthehomeboundfunctionalneedspopulation.LatchkeychildrenaredefinedbyNUREG/CR 7002aschildrenwithinhouseholdsthatareunsupervisedandwillneedtransportation.Nodatawasreceivedonthenumberoflatchkeychil drenwithintheEPZ.Iftransportationwasrequiredtopickupthesechildren,theywouldreceiveanETEcomparabletothatoftheETEforhomeboundfunctionalneedspersons.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsThecalculationbelowsummarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Assumingthespecialneedspersonisbedridden;theywillrequireanambulancefortransportation.Ambulancespeedsapproximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain).TheHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat45mph(40mphforrain),afterthepickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtime,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexampl e,assumingonebedriddenspecialneedspersonimpliesthat1bedriddenhouseholdneedtobeserviced.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Oneambulanceisdeployed,with1stop,toserviceatotalof1HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Ambulancearriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirs tpickup:15minutes BrunswickNuclearPlant8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1c. TraveltoEPZboundary:14minutes(5miles@22.0mph).ETE:90+15+14=2:00roundedtothenearest5minutesIncaseofrain,thefollowingadditionstotraveltimesareconsidered:1. Oneambulanceisdeployed,with1stop,toserviceatotalof1HH.2. TheETEforarainscenarioiscalculatedasfollows:a. Ambulancearriveatthefirstpickuplocation:100minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:15minutesc. TraveltoEPZboundary:16minutes(5miles@18.4mph).ETE:100+15+16=2:10roundedtotheneares t5minutes8.6 EvacuationofVisitorstoBaldHeadIslandBaldHeadIslandislocatedsoutheastoftheBrunswickNuclearPlantandisonlyaccessiblebyferryorprivatewatercraft.VehiculartrafficisnotpermittedonBaldHeadIsland.ThosevisitingBaldHeadIslandmayparkatoneoffourdesignatedlotsinSouthportneartheferrylaunchsite,taketheferrytotheisland,andtheneitherwalk,rentabike,orrentagolfcartfortheday.Oneoftheparkinglotsisreservedforthosewhoownpropertyontheislandandtheyrequireanannualparkingpass;theotherthreelotsarefordailyandweeklyvisitors.ThereisoverflowparkingatnearbySouthportElementarySchoolduringsummerholidayweekendsandshuttleservicetotheferryisprovided.Thereare4ferriesinthefleetrunningfromSouthporttoBaldHeadIsland.Therearetypicallyonly3crewsavailableonapeakday,meaning3ofthe4ferrieswouldbeused.Theferryisscheduledtoruneveryhour,butcanruneveryhalfhourduringpeaktimes.Thecapacityoftheferryis150persons.Ittakes10minutestoloadtheferryan d20minutestotraversetheroute.BasedondatareceivedonfacilitiesonBaldHeadIsland,thereareatmost1,238peopleontheislandduringapeaksummerday.Thus,inanemergencysituation,9ferrytripswouldbeneededtotransporteveryoneoffoftheislandandontothemainland.Theferrieswouldlikelyruneveryhalfhourinanemergencysituation;thus,thelastpeopletoleaveBaldHeadIslandwouldleaveat4hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE)andarriveinSouthport5hoursaftertheATE.TheaveragetravelspeedoutputbyDYNEVIIfo rSR 211at5:00aftertheATEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZonasummer,weekend,middaywithgoodweather(Scenario3)is15mph.ThemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZforthosedepartingtheferryiswestonNC211,a12mileroute.Thus,traveltimeoutoftheEPZisapproximately48minutes.ThelastpeopleevacuatingfromBaldHeadIslandwilldeparttheEPZ5:50aftertheATE.ThisexceedsthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile,butislessthanthe100 thpercentileETEduringasummer,weekend,middayscenario.

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacilityGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationService Activity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes BrunswickNuclearPlant8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 3.TransitDependentBusRoutes BrunswickNuclearPlant8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommuters SurveyPercentHH withNon ReturningCommuters TotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharingPercentagePeopleRequiring PublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201235,2501.111.602.1316,3951.81%26.0%53.5%35%50%81250%4061.2%

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesZoneSchoolNameEnrollmentStaffBusesRequired 2 VansRequired 1 Mini BusRequired AChildcareNetwork1372300ASouthportBaptistChurchPreschool522100ASouthportChristianSchool1402300BKidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenter 235100BL&LMontessoriSchool922200BSouthportElementarySchool706851700DSharon'sChildcare51010EKidsWorldAcademy405011ELongBeachAcademy407100GSouthBrunswickHighSchool1,0811132800GSouthBrunswickMiddleSchool7231002300KCarolinaBeachElementarySchool38555700TOTAL: 3,4243798621 1 KidsWorldAcademyusesone8passengerbustoevacuate,definedhereasamini bus2BrunswickCountyschoolsandtransportationrequirementswereprovidedthroughtheBrunswickCountySchoolRadiologicalEmergencyPlan.Thisdatawasusedfortheschoolsthatwerelistedinthepublicinformationasevacuatingschools.NOTE:Staffwillaccompanystudentsduringanevacuation BrunswickNuclearPlant8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsSchoolRelocationSchoolSouthBrunswickHighSchoolBrunswickAcademyChildcareNetworkBoliviaElementarySchoolKidsWorldAcademyKidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenterL&LMontessoriSchoolLongBeachAcademySharon'sChildcareSouthportBaptistChurchPreschoolSouthportChristianSchoolSouthBrunswickMiddleSchoolLelandMiddleSchoolCarolinaBeachElementarySchoolMurrayMiddleSchoolSouthportElementarySchoolSupplyElementarySchool BrunswickNuclearPlant8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandZoneFacilityNameMunicipalityCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenBusRunsWheelchairBusRunsAmbulance COUNTYAMEDICALFACILITIESACarillonAssistedLivingSouthportN/A655960310ADosherMemorialHospital&SkilledNursingCenterSouthport60503875213AOceanTrailConvalescentCenterSouthportN/A69163914137BrunswickCountySubtotal: 6018411352196510TOTAL: 6018411352196510 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesVansWheelchairTransportVehiclesAmbulances Mini BusResourcesAvailableNewHanoverCounty242022240BrunswickCounty7700110Sharon'sDayCare01000KidsWorldAcademy01001BrunswickTransitSystem501100TOTAL: 324233351ResourcesNeededSchools(Table8 2): 862000MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 605100TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 210000HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 00000TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 113251011 Itwasassumedthehomeboundspecialneedspersonwouldrequireanambulanceinthisstudy.However,nodatawasprovidedonthetypeoftransportationneededforthisindividual.

BrunswickNuclearPlant8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1SouthportElementarySchool396,449,308,151,475,389,153,156,477,157,159,393,162,408,164,1672SouthBrunswickMiddleSchool9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,18,19,498,213SouthBrunswickHighSchool314,9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,492,491,4904KidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenter391,390,151,475,389,153,290,155,3,2,451,6,9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,18,19,498,215Sharon'sChildcare323,190,194,405,320,400,442,401,428,402,164,410,242,412,411,246,413,247,250,416,415,252,2546KidsWorldAcademy159,393,162,408,164,410,242,412,411,246,413,247,250,416,415,252,2547SouthportBaptistChurchPreschool391,390,151,475,389,153,290,155,3,2,451,6,9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,492,491,4908SouthportChristianSchool451,6,9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,492,491,4909L&LMontessoriSchool394,443,516,180,340,159,393,162,408,164,410,242,412,411,246,413,247,250,416,415,252,25410ChildcareNetwork383,307,290,155,3,2,451,6,9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,492,491,49011LongBeachAcademy180,340,159,393,162,408,164,410,242,412,411,246,413,247,250,416,415,252,25412CarillonAssistedLiving383,307,290,155,3,2,451,6,32,34,35,511,38,39,531,28713OceanTrailConvalescentCenter476,475,389,153,290,155,3,2,451,6,32,34,35,511,38,39,531,28714DosherMemorialHospital&SkilledNursingCenter475,389,153,290,155,3,2,451,6,9,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,18,19,498,2118ZoneA528,148,149,391,390,151,475,389,153,290,155,3,2,451,6,32,34,35,511,38,39,531,28719ZoneB149,391,390,151,475,389,153,290,155,3,2,451,6,32,34,35,511,38,39,531,28720ZoneC479,319,336,431,216,183,394,443,516,180,340,159,393,162,408,164,16721ZoneD183,317,186,187,323,190,194,405,320,400,442,401,428,402,164,16722CarolinaBeachElementarySchool300,76,366,83,84,85,87,89,90,91,92,9523ZoneE439,438,318,437,436,434,435,286,433,432,291,162,408,164,16724ZoneF164,410,242,412,411,246,413,247,250,416,415,252,254 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary25ZoneG57,59,452,60,10,12,14,15,16,17,493,18,19,498,2126ZoneH392,454,455,55,57,59,63,34,35,511,38,39,531,28728ZoneK75,346,76,366,83,84,85,87,89,90,91,92,9529ZoneL68,71,75,346,76,366,83,84,85,87,89,90,91,92,95 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)BRUNSWICKCOUNTYSCHOOLSChildcareNetwork90314.427.8322:050.512:10KidsWorldAcademy90311.114.6462:200.822:25KidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenter90314.79.5943:100.413:10L&LMontessoriSchool9030.76.371:400.711:45LongBeachAcademy90312.510.9702:450.822:45Sharon'sChildcare90313.415.7522:250.712:30SouthportBaptistChurchPreschool90314.727.7322:050.512:10SouthportChristianSchool90311.426.1272:000.512:05SouthportElementarySchool90311.812.2592:356.392:45SouthBrunswickHighSchool9038.421.8242:006.292:10SouthBrunswickMiddleSchool9037.75.8792:5512.9183:10NEWHANOVERCOUNTYSCHOOLSCarolinaBeachElementarySchool9033.025.381:453.551:50MaximumforEPZ:3:10Maximum:3:10AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:25 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)BRUNSWICKCOUNTYSCHOOLSChildcareNetwork100814.423.0382:300.512:30KidsWorldAcademy100811.111.2602:500.822:50KidsWorldDevelopment&LearningCenter100814.78.21093:400.413:40L&LMontessoriSchool10080.75.382:000.722:00LongBeachAcademy100812.59.0843:150.823:15Sharon'sChildcare100813.412.9632:550.722:55SouthportBaptistChurchPreschool100814.722.9392:300.512:30SouthportChristianSchool100811.421.0332:250.512:25SouthportElementarySchool100811.810.9652:556.3103:05SouthBrunswickHighSchool10088.417.6292:206.2102:30SouthBrunswickMiddleSchool10087.74.9953:2512.9203:45NEWHANOVERCOUNTYSCHOOLSCarolinaBeachElementarySchool10083.022.392:003.562:05MaximumforEPZ:3:40Maximum:3:45AverageforEPZ:2:45Average:2:50 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)182ServicingZoneA17.6192ServicingZoneB16.3201ServicingZoneC16.1213ServicingZoneD13.3233ServicingZoneE10.2241ServicingZoneF6.5252ServicingZoneG9.0261ServicingZoneH13.3285ServicingZoneK3.6291ServicingZoneL5.8Total:21 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)RouteSpeed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoE.S.(miles)TravelTimetoE.S(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)18110517.642.925202:3011.01551062204:25212517.644.024202:5011.01551062204:4519110516.344.022202:3010.91551058204:15212516.345.022202:5010.91551058204:3520112516.115.064203:3013.91951063205:3021110513.316.249202:5514.01951055204:45212513.320.239203:0514.01951054204:55314513.322.835203:2014.01951054205:1023110510.26.496203:4514.01951046205:25212510.27.582203:5014.01951046205:30314510.29.266203:5514.01951046205:352411256.543.19202:3517.02351042204:152511059.05.992203:4013.41851071205:4521259.05.598204:0513.41851054205:5526112513.320.938203:0511.01551050204:452811053.635.56202:1511.11551026203:3021153.634.66202:2511.11551026203:4031253.635.76202:3511.11551026203:5041353.635.86202:4511.11551026204:0051453.635.86202:5511.11551026204:102911255.835.110202:3511.11551033204:00MaximumETE:4:05MaximumETE:5:55AverageETE:3:05AverageETE:4:45 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoE.S.(miles)TravelTimetoE.S(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)18110517.634.231302:5011.01651069305:00212517.632.033303:1011.01651069305:2019110516.334.828302:4510.91651065304:50212516.332.830303:0510.91651065305:1520112516.112.379303:5513.92151074306:1521110513.312.663303:2014.02151061305:30212513.315.950303:3014.02151061305:35314513.318.842303:4014.02151061305:4523110510.25.6109304:0514.02151053306:05212510.26.595304:1014.02151053306:10314510.27.582304:2014.02151052306:202411256.525.016302:5517.02651046304:502511059.05.893303:5013.42051066306:0021259.05.696304:1513.42051052306:1026112513.314.655303:3011.01651056305:302811053.621.510302:2511.11751029304:0021153.628.87302:3511.11751029304:0531253.633.07302:4511.11751029304:1541353.633.16302:5511.11751029304:2551453.633.16303:0511.11751029304:352911255.832.311302:5011.11751037304:25MaximumETE:4:20MaximumETE:6:20AverageETE:3:20AverageETE:5:15 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)CarillonAssistedLivingAmbulatory9055910015.7213:35Wheelchairbound90563015.7212:25Bedridden90150015.7221:55DosherMemorialHospital&SkilledNursingCenterAmbulatory9053810013.2814:35Wheelchairbound90573513.21003:45Bedridden901553013.2993:40OceanTrailConvalescentCenterAmbulatory905168015.5213:15Wheelchairbound905397515.5213:10Bedridden9015143015.5212:25MaximumETE:4:35AverageETE:3:15 BrunswickNuclearPlant8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)CarillonAssistedLivingAmbulatory10055910015.7243:45Wheelchairbound100563015.7292:40Bedridden100150015.7272:10DosherMemorialHospital&SkilledNursingCenterAmbulatory10053810013.2814:45Wheelchairbound100573513.2943:50Bedridden1001553013.2993:50OceanTrailConvalescentCenterAmbulatory1005168015.5263:30Wheelchairbound1005397515.5273:25Bedridden10015143015.5292:40MaximumETE:4:45AverageETE:3:25

BrunswickNuclearPlant9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* GuidanceprovidedbytheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"ratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forexample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplem entationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.

BrunswickNuclearPlant9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwerenotprovidedbythecounties;recommendationsweremadeinareaswheretheuseofTCPswouldbenefitETE.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.TheschematicsdescribingtrafficandaccesscontrolatsuggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs,whicharepresentedinAppendixG,arebasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,andonoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.TrainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelikelyevacuationtrafficpatternsshouldreviewthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs.5. PrioritizationofTCP sandACPs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexampl e,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.Itisrecommendedth atthecontroltacticsidentifiedintheschematicsinAppendixGbereviewedbythestateandcountyemergencyplanners,andlocalandstatepolice.SpecificallythenumberandlocationsofthesuggestedTCPsandACPsshouldbereviewedindetail,andtheindicatedresourcerequirementsshouldbereconciledwithcurrentassets.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

BrunswickNuclearPlant10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromazonebeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoevacuationshelters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoevacuationsheltersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1presentsamapshowingthegeneralpopulationEvacuatio nSheltersandRelocationSchoolsforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.ItisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriateRelocationSchoolandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit de pendentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestevacuationshelterforeachcounty.ThisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromEvacuationShelterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

BrunswickNuclearPlant10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.EvacuationSheltersandRelocationSchools BrunswickNuclearPlant10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.MajorEvacuationRoutes APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms BrunswickNuclearPlantA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

BrunswickNuclearPlantA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel BrunswickNuclearPlantB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost."OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost,"asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

BrunswickNuclearPlantB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling."Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel BrunswickNuclearPlantB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

BrunswickNuclearPlantB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium."Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs."Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

BrunswickNuclearPlantB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel BrunswickNuclearPlantC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics BrunswickNuclearPlantC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network BrunswickNuclearPlantC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks BrunswickNuclearPlantC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx BrunswickNuclearPlantC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop,"(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems,"Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams BrunswickNuclearPlantC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp BrunswickNuclearPlantC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm BrunswickNuclearPlantC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

BrunswickNuclearPlantC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes BrunswickNuclearPlantC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure BrunswickNuclearPlantD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.EmployeedataweregatheredbyDukeEnergy.Transientdatawereobtainedfromphonecallstotransientat tractions.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwasobtainedfromDukeEnergy.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,NorthCarolinaStateHighwayPatrol).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtotheutilitymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhouseandthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.

BrunswickNuclearPlantD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto13Zones.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofzones)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.

BrunswickNuclearPlantD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.

BrunswickNuclearPlantD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

BrunswickNuclearPlantD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXEFacilityData BrunswickNuclearPlantE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. FACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofAugust2012,forspecialfacilities,transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheBNPEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,daycarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreati onalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschoolanddaycarecenter,recreationalarea,lodgingfacility,an dmajoremployerarealsoprovided.

BrunswickNuclearPlantE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffBRUNSWICKCOUNTYA1.8SChildcareNetwork802E.LeonardStreetSouthport(910)45705551372A2.7SSouthportBaptistChurchPreschool200N.HoweStreetSouthport(910)4576816522A1.2WNWSouthportChristianSchool8070RiverRoadSouthport(910)45750601402B2.4SSWKidsWorldLearning&DevelopmentCenter713N.CaswellAve.Southport(910)4570187235B3.8WSWL&LMontessoriSchool4150VanessaDr.Southport(910)4547344922B2.6SSWSouthportElementarySchool701West9thSt.Southport(910)457603670685D6.9WSWSharon'sDaycare115Northeast43rdSt.OakIsland(910)409809551E2.5WKidsWorldAcademy4833GinaSt.Southport(910)4575444405E3.3WSWLongBeachAcademy4455LongBeachRd.OakIsland(910)4570092407G4.1NNWSouthBrunswickHighSchool280CougarRd.Southport(910)84522041,081113G4.1NNWSouthBrunswickMiddleSchool100CougarRd.Southport(910)8452771723100BrunswickSubtotals:3,039324NEWHANOVERCOUNTYK8.1NECarolinaBeachElementary400S4thSt.CarolinaBeach(910)458434038555K8.7NEIslandMontessoriSchool 1222WinnerDriveCarolinaBeach(910)798650039N/ANewHanoverSubtotals:38555TOTAL:3,4633791IslandMontessoriSchoolevacuateschildrenusingstaffvehicles.

BrunswickNuclearPlantE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurren tCensusAmbul atoryPatient sWheel chairPatient sBedridden Patient sBRUNSWICKCOUNTYA1.2SCarillonAssistedLiving1125E.LeonardStreetSouthport(910)4544001N/A655960A2.1SSWDosherMemorialHospital&SkilledNursingCenter924N.HoweStreetSouthport(910)457380060503875A2.0SSWOceanTrailConvalescentCenter630N.FodaleAvenueSouthport(910)4579581N/A69163914BrunswickSubtotals:601841135219TOTAL:601841135219 BrunswickNuclearPlantE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)BRUNSWICKCOUNTYA1.4SEArcherDanielsMidlandCo.1730E.MooreSt.Southport(910)457501125070%175ABrunswickNuclearPlant8520RiverRoadSoutheastSouthport(910)45780001,80567%1,210A1.0SCapitalPowerCorporation1281PowerhouseDr.Southport(910)45750565053%27A2.0WLowe'sHomeImprovement5084SouthportSupplyRoadSoutheastSouthport(910)454876110030%30A1.2SCarillonAssistedLiving1125E.LeonardSt.Southport(910)45440015053%27A2.1SSWDosherMemorialHospital&SkilledNursingCenter924N.HoweSt.Southport(910)457380048053%255A2.0SSWOceanTrailConvalescentCenter630N.FodaleAve.Southport(910)457958110053%53B1.6SWWalmartSupercenter1675N.HoweSt.Southport(910)45799097575%57E2.3WSWLowesFoodsofSouthport4961LongBeachRd.Southport(910)45706575540%22J3.9NNEMilitaryOceanTerminalSunnyPointHwy87Southport(910)457800025075%188BrunswickSubtotals:3,2152,044NEWHANOVERCOUNTYK8.7NECarolinaBeachTownHall1121N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45829997510%8NewHanoverSubtotals:758TOTAL:3,2902,052 BrunswickNuclearPlantE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransien tsVehiclesBRUNSWICKCOUNTYA2.0SSEDeepPointMarina1301FerryRd.Southport(910)26923805526A1.5SWWoodsideTrailerpark&Campgrounds1648N.HoweSt.Southport(910)4576564180120B3.6SWDutchmanCreekParkFishFactoryRd.SESmithville(910)7555517258120B3.1SSWIndigoPlantation&Marina6099IndigoPlantationDr.Southport(910)26923802612B3.7SWSouthHarbourGolfLinks4188VanessaDr.Southport(910)4540905B3.8SWSouthHarbourVillageMarina4909FishFactoryRd.Southport(910)45474862210B2.9SSWSouthportMarina606WWestSt.Southport(910)45799007635C5.1SWOakIslandGolfClub928CaswellRd.OakIsland(910)278527517560D12.1WSWBlueWaterPointMarina571057thPlaceW.OakIsland(910)27812309142DOakIslandBeaches 129,3159,772D7.5WSWOakIslandRecreationCenter3003E.OakIslandD.OakIsland(910)27850114949E6.2WSWFoundersClub3021BeaverCreekDriveSESouthport(910)253510084E6.5WMembersClub3779MembersClubBlvd.SESouthport(800)474927784E5.5WReserveClub4061WydmereDr.Southport(888)873759884E7.0WSWStJamesMarina2571St.JamesDr.SESouthport(910)25304634220E4.2WSWThePlayer'sClub3684PlayersClubDr.SESouthport(910)457004984G5.6NNWLakesCountryClub591SouthShoreDr.Southport(910)84526253818J6.8NNEBrunswickTownHistoricalMuseum8884StPhilipsRd.SEWinnabow(910)371661310030NBaldHeadIslandBeach 2815379N6.7SBaldHeadIslandCountryClub 21SaltMeadowTrailBaldHeadIsland(910)45773106038N5.7SBaldHeadIslandMarina 26AMarinaWyndBaldHeadIsland(910)4577380334155BrunswickSubtotals:31,66810,902 BrunswickNuclearPlantE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransien tsVehiclesNEWHANOVERCOUNTYKCarolinaBeach 3CarolinaBeach14,4524,330K8.7NECarolinaBeachMunicipalMarina300CanalDr.CarolinaBeach(910)45825406530K8.1NECarolinaBeachStatePark1011.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4588206250117K8.6NECarolinaBeachStatePark&Campground1011S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4588206332166K8.2NECarolinaStateParkMarina1010StateParkRd.CarolinaBeach(910)45882063114K9.8NEJoynerMarina401MarinaSt.CarolinaBeach(910)4585053178K9.8NEMasonboroCountyClub8610SedgleyDr.Wilmington(910)397916214160K9.5NEWaterfrontVillas&YachtClub100Spencer FarlowDr.CarolinaBeach(910)4581620209L5.4EFortFisherHistoricSite1610FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)45855381000466L4.8EN.C.AquariumatFortFisher900LoggerheadRd.KureBeach(910)4588257538250LKureBeach 34,3171,315NewHanoverSubtotals:21,1636,765TOTAL:52,83117,6671 TransientsaredispersedalongtheentirestretchofOakIslandBeaches2 NovehiclesarepermittedonBaldHeadIsland,vehiclesareparkedattheBaldHeadIslandFerryparkinglotinSouthport3 TransientsaredispersedalongtheentirestretchofPleasureIslandBeaches BrunswickNuclearPlantE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesBRUNSWICKCOUNTYA2.0WSWHamptonInn5181SouthportSupplyRd.Southport(919)4540016235157A2.5SSWRiverOaksMotel512N.HoweSt.Southport(910)4571100105B2.9SLoisJane'sRiverviewInn106W.BaySt.Southport(910)457670153B2.9SRiversideMotel103W.BaySt.Southport(910)4576986148D12.1WSWBlueWaterPointMotel571057thPlaceW.OakIsland(910)278123011228D6.1WSWCaptain'sCoveMotel6401E.OakIslandDr.OakIsland(910)278602615157D6.4WSWIslandInn5611E.OakIslandDr.OakIsland(910)27833663116D5.4SWOakIslandInn8101E.OakIslandDr.OakIsland(910)27816894128D8.4WSWOceanCrestMotel1411E.BeachDr.OakIsland(910)2783333221111N5.6SMarshHarbourInn 221KeelsonRowBaldHeadIsland(910)45404512922BrunswickSubtotals:849435NEWHANOVERCOUNTYK8.2NEBeachGirlsRealty 1245N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4585611123K8.1NEBeachSideInn616S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45855984315K8.9NEBeachhouseInn412CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)45855576622K9.1NEBeaconHouse715CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)4586244197K8.0NEBlueWaterRealty 11000S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4583001539202K9.0NEBryantRealEstate:ResidentialManagementRentals 11401N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4585658536230K8.4NEBuccaneerMotel201CapeFearBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45885067218K8.6NECabanaSuites1222CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)4584456376152K8.7NECarolinaBeachRealty 11009N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4584444672224K8.4NECole'sMotel213RaleighAve.CarolinaBeach(910)45851765117K8.4NECourtyardbyMarriott100CharlotteAve.CarolinaBeach(910)4582030459184K8.8NEDolphinLaneMotel318CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)45855945416K8.7NEDriftersReefMotel701N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)458541416555K8.3NEDryDockFamilyMotel300S.LakeParkCarolinaBeach(910)458834611128 BrunswickNuclearPlantE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesK8.7NEGardnerRealty&Management 11009N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)458850318462K7.8NEGoldenSandsMotel1211S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4588334360287K8.8NEJoyLeeApts.317CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)458836121K8.5NELaneyRealEstateCo.1140HarperAve.CarolinaBeach(910)45837394724K8.7NEMicrotelInn&Suites907N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)458130021060K8.5NEMtVernonInn205HarperAve.CarolinaBeach(910)45894994214K10.0NENorthPierOceanVillas1800CanalDriveCarolinaBeach(910)458406215660K8.4NERusso'sMotel213CapeFearBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45852816116K8.8NESavahannaInn316CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)45865557519K8.6NESeaandSunMotel501N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45879185213K8.8NESeagullMotel413CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)45862183213K8.4NESeawitchMotel224N.CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)707005813521K8.8NESmithCottages315CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)4586503186K8.7NESurfsideMotorLodge234CarolinaBeachAve.N.CarolinaBeach(910)458833825263K8.7NEUnitedBeachVacations 11001N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45890731,110555K8.7NEVictoryBeachVacations 1607N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4580868893510K8.6NEWalkerRealty&Investments 1501N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)458338817964K8.5NEWandaInn4N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45883672010K8.5NEWelcomeInn207N.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)45855396426L6.5ENEAdmiral'sQuartersMotel129S.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)458999610556L7.4ENEAtlanticTowersCondominiums1615S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4588313520130L6.7ENEBlueMarlinApartments+Beach309N.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)4585752206L7.6ENEBullardRealtyInc.11404S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)4584028515258L6.8ENEDarling'sbytheSea329AtlanticAve.KureBeach(910)458142984L6.6ENEDryDockBythePier122FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)4581153145L6.5ENEHiddenTreasureInn113S.4thAve.KureBeach(910)4583216144L6.7ENEIslandRealty 1325N.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)45888007623L6.7ENEKureKeysMotel310FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)4585277217L6.5ENEMoranMotel118N.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)458539512337L7.4ENEOceaneerMotel1621S.LakeParkBlvd.CarolinaBeach(910)458853711228 BrunswickNuclearPlantE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesL6.6ENEPalmAirCottages(Realty) 1133N.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)4585269270108L6.6ENEPeterson'sCottage109N.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)458321661L6.5ENEPierviewCottages&Motel209KAve.KureBeach(910)4585269369L6.5ENESandDunesMotel123FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)458547010827L6.7ENESandiBeachInn314N.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)45859063010L6.6ENESevenSeasInn130FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)45881229023L6.5ENESouthWindMotel109S.FortFisherBlvd.KureBeach(910)458942413334NewHanoverSubtotals:9,2683,767TOTAL:10,1174,2021 SincethesearerealtyfacilitiesintheCarolinaBeachandKureBeachareas,thevehiclesaredispersedalongPleasureIslandBeaches2 NovehiclesarepermittedonBaldHeadIsland,vehiclesareloadedattheBaldHeadIslandFerryparkinglotinSouthport

BrunswickNuclearPlantE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlantE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlantE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1

FigureE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlantE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.RecreationalAreaswithinZonesA,B,C,D,E,andN BrunswickNuclearPlantE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithinZonesG,J,K,andL BrunswickNuclearPlantE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlantE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlantE 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ BrunswickNuclearPlantE 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 9.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey BrunswickNuclearPlantF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheBNPEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

BrunswickNuclearPlantF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotuse dintheETEstudy.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.BNPTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZIPCODEEPZPOPINZIPFOR2010EPZHOUSEHOLDS INZIPFOR2010REQUIRED SAMPLE28409168622 284122331105333 28422216896630 284286018282288 28449170780225 28461156326926217 284656531310197 284796952638 Total35,25015,995500AvgHHSize: 2.2 BrunswickNuclearPlantF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.15people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.20persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.ThecloseagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilit yofthesurvey.FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%

50%60%70%12345678910+

%ofHouseholds HouseholdSizeBrunswickNuclearPlantHouseholdSize BrunswickNuclearPlantF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis2.Itshouldbenotedthat1.8percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesBrunswickNuclearPlantVehicleAvailability BrunswickNuclearPlantF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds 0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People BrunswickNuclearPlantF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ridesharing73%ofthehouseholdssurveyed,whodonotownavehicle,respondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency.Note,however,thatonlythosehouseholdswithnoaccesstoavehicle-9totaloutofth esamplesizeof500-answeredthisquestion.Thus,theresultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingisusedthroughoutthisstudy.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholdsBrunswickNuclearPlantRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend BrunswickNuclearPlantF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof0.55commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and35%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%60%

70%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommutersBrunswickNuclearPlantCommuters BrunswickNuclearPlantF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.03employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ

0.7%2.6%93.3%3.4%0%20%40%60%

80%100%BusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravelBrunswickNuclearPlantTravelModetoWork BrunswickNuclearPlantF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AssistanceRequiredFigureF 8presentshouseholdsthatwouldrequireassistanceduringanemergency.EventhoughamajorityofEPZresidentswouldnotrequireassistance,itisimportanttonotethat11%ofhouseholdswill.FigureF 8.HouseholdthatRequireAssistanceDuringanEmergency

0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsthatRequireAssistanceDuringanEmergency BrunswickNuclearPlantF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 9.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.34vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,50percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand50percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,71percentofhouseholdshaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,93percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigur eF 10.FigureF 9.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation BrunswickNuclearPlantF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF10.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets BrunswickNuclearPlantF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat84percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining16percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisingoodagreementwiththefederalguidance."Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacuateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.Resultsindicatethat76percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof24percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseact ivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

BrunswickNuclearPlantF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 11presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout75minutes.Eightypercentcanleavewithin20minutes.FigureF11.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 12presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About90percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout40minutesofleavingwork;nearlyallwithin60minutes.FigureF12.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%010203040506070

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%010203040506070

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel BrunswickNuclearPlantF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 13presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 13hasalong"tail."About75percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin105minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionaltwoandahalfhours.FigureF13.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome BrunswickNuclearPlantF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.

BrunswickNuclearPlantF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument BrunswickNuclearPlant17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mworkingonasurveyforyourcountyemergencymanagementagencytoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations.Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbesharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansinyourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributetolocalemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyournameoranypersonalinformation,andthesurveywilltakelessthan10minutestocomplete.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanyrunningcars,orothervehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED BrunswickNuclearPlant18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINECOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTEEN6SIXTEEN7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Bus1 1 1 1Walk/Bicycle2 2 2 2DriveAlone3 3 3 3Carpool 2ormorepeople4 4 4 4Don'tknow/Refused5 5 5 57.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR BrunswickNuclearPlant19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNO W/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2 BrunswickNuclearPlant20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopack BrunswickNuclearPlant21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1clothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSZWILLNOTEVACUATE(Optionalresponse)COL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 11.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED BrunswickNuclearPlant22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.52 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED12B.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.53 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED13.Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)COL.541 DON'THAVEAPE T2 YES3 NOX DON'TKNOW/REFUSED 14.Wouldyouneedassistanceincaseofanemergency?(READANSWERS)COL.551 YES2 NOX DON'TKNOW/REFUSED

Thankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.CountyEMAPhone Brunswick(910)2535383NewHanover(910)7986907 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan BrunswickNuclearPlantG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwerenotprovidedbythecounties;recommendationsweremadeinareaswheretheuseofTCPswouldbenefitETE.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSect ion9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewouldbech angedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNEVIIsystem.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,theanimationofevacuationtrafficconditionsindicatesseveralcriticalintersectionswhichcouldbebottlenecksduringanevacuation.TheintersectionsofUS 17withGallowayRd,OldOceanHwyEast,RandolphvilleRd,MillCreekRd,andSR 87al lexperiencesignificantcongestion.Asthesearethelastcongestedintersectionstoclear,itisrecommendedthatthecountyconsidertheseintersectionsasmandatoryTCPs.RefertoError!Referencesourcenotfound.toseethebenefittheseTCPshaveonETE.TheTCPdonotmateriallyimpactETEatthe90 thpercentile-decreasingETEby10minutes-buthaveasignificantimpactonETEatthe100 thpercentile-decreasingETEby35minutes.FigureG 1mapstherecommendedTCPs.TheseTCPSareconcentratedintheshadowregionalongUS 17,whichwereidentifiedasbeingcongestedthroughoutmostoftheevacuationinSection7.3.EventhoughtheseTCPsarenotwithintheEPZ,vehiclesqueuesextendtowithintheEPZboundary.TheseTCPsshouldbemann edduringanevacuationbytrafficguideswhowouldfacilitatetheflowofevacueesthroughtheseintersections.Schematicsareprovidedforthe5recommendedTCPsandcanbeseeninFigureG 2throughFigureG 6.TheseTCPShavebeenpresentedanddiscussedwithDukeEnergyandtheoff siteagenciesattheFinalMeeting.TableG 1.RecommendedTrafficControlPoints'EffectonETEScenario3,RegionR02EvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentileBaseCase5:107:05WithTrafficControl5:006:30 BrunswickNuclearPlantG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.RecommendedTrafficControlPointsfortheBNPSite BrunswickNuclearPlantG 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 2.RecommendedTCP 01MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNAL TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATEBOLIVIAUS-17 & SR-87 TCP-01TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID: KEY8 ft2 ft3 ft TCPACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1Traffic Guide(s)6Traffic Barricades1.Facilitate flow of northbound vehicles along SR-87 onto US-17.2.Prevent Vehicles from turning onto SR-87. **Traffic Guide should position himself safelyUS-17SR-87 BrunswickNuclearPlantG 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 3.RecommendedTCP 02MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE BOLIVIAUS-17 & Old Ocean Highway E TCP-02TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID: KEY 8 ft2 ft3 ft TCPACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N2Traffic Guide(s)6Traffic Barricades1.Facilitate flow of westbound vehicles along Old Ocean Highway E onto US-17.2.Prevent vehicles from turning onto Old Ocean Highway E.**Traffic Guide should position himself safelyUS-17Old Ocean Highway E BrunswickNuclearPlantG 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 4.RecommendedTCP 03MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNAL TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATEBOLIVIARandolphvilleRdNE& US-17TCP-03TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KEY8 ft2 ft3 ft TCPACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1Traffic Guide(s)2Traffic Barricades1.Facilitate flow of westbound vehicles along RandolphvilleRd NE onto US-17.2.Prevent Vehicles from turning onto Randolphville. **Traffic Guide should position himself safely US-17RandolphvilleRd NE BrunswickNuclearPlantG 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 5.RecommendedTCP 04MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATEBOLIVIAMill Creek Rd & US-17 TCP-04TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID: KEY8 ft2 ft3 ft TCPACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1Traffic Guide(s)2Traffic Barricades1.Facilitate flow of westbound vehicles along Mill Creek Rd onto US-17.2.Prevent Vehicles from turning onto Mill Creek Rd eastbound.**Traffic Guide should position himself safely BrunswickNuclearPlantG 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 6.RecommendedTCP 05MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNAL TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATEBOLIVIAGalloway Rd NE & US-17 TCP-05TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID: KEY8 ft2 ft3 ft TCPACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1Traffic Guide(s)2Traffic Barricades1.Facilitate flow of westbound vehicles along Galloway Rd NE onto US-17.2.Prevent Vehicles from turning onto Galloway. **Traffic Guide should position himself safelyUS-17Galloway Rd NE APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions BrunswickNuclearPlantH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1andTableH 2)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1andTableH 2arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

BrunswickNuclearPlantH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofZonePopulationEvacuatingforRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR012 MileRadius100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R02FullEPZALLZONESINEPZ100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR03NNW,N328° 009°100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R04NNE010° 021°100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R05022° 038°100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R06NE039° 051°100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R07ENE052° 090°100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R08E091° 112°100%100%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R09ESE100%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R10SE,SSE100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%R11113° 179°100%100%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%R12S180° 195°100%100%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%R13SSW196° 236°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%R14SW100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%R15WSW237° 271°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%R16W272° 288°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%20%R17WNW100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%20%R18289° 316°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%R19NW317° 327°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%N/AALLZONESINEPZSeeRegionR02 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 2.PercentofZonePopulationEvacuatingforStagedRegionsStagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionZoneABCDEFGHJKLMNR20NNW,N329° 009°100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R21NNE010° 021°100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R22022° 038°100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R23NE039° 051°100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R24ENE052° 090°100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R25E091° 112°100%100%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R26ESE100%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R27SE,SSE100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%R28113° 179°100%100%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%R29S180° 195°100%100%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%R30SSW196° 236°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%R31SW100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%R32WSW237° 271°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%R33W272° 288°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%20%R34WNW100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%20%R35289° 316°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%R36NW317° 327°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R37ALLZONESINEPZ100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZone(s)Shelter in PlaceZone(s)Evacuate BrunswickNuclearPlantH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 1.RegionR01 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 2.RegionR02 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 3.RegionR03 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 4.RegionR04 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 6.RegionR06 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 7.RegionR07 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 9.RegionR09 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH11.RegionR11 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH12.RegionR12 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH13.RegionR13 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH14.RegionR14 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH15.RegionR15 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH16.RegionR16 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH17.RegionR17 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH18.RegionR18 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH19.RegionR19 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH20.RegionR20 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH21.RegionR21 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH22.RegionR22 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH23.RegionR23 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH24.RegionR24 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH25.RegionR25 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH26.RegionR26 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH27.RegionR27 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH28.RegionR28 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH29.RegionR29 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH30.RegionR30 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH31.RegionR31 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH32.RegionR32 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH33.RegionR33 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH34.RegionR34 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH35.RegionR35 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH36.RegionR36 BrunswickNuclearPlantH 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH37.RegionR37 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR02)foreachscenario.ComparingScenario1andScenario12(roadwayimpact),theNetwork WideAverageTravelTime(Min/Veh Mi)ishigherfortheroadwayimpactandthenetworkaverag espeedislower.SimilarrelationsexistbetweenScenario11(SpecialEvent)andScenario3;theNetwork WideAverageTravelTimeishigherforthespecialeventandthenetworkaveragespeedislower.TableJ 4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-SR 211,SR 87,SR 133-foranev acuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR02)underScenario1conditions.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 9,SR 211andSR 87arecongestedformostoftheevacuation.SR 87experiencesasignificantdecreaseinspeedafterthefirsthouroftheevacuation.At6hours,thespeedalongSR 87isapproximatelyfreespeed.SR 211hasloweraveragespeedsfromthebeginningoftheevacuationandincreasessubstantiallyafterthethirdhouroftheevacuation.TableJ 5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR02)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 12plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe12Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEarein dicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecu rvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigureJ 12,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedasaresultofthetrafficcongestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSectio n7.3.

BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)175US 17&SR211A1747,99425347,62802843,4550TOTAL19,077277US 17&OldOceanHighwayA2954,64004193,5231575447,486135TOTAL15,64926US 17&TownCreekElementarySchoolDrivewayA53611,1038105423,2647948200TOTAL14,367275US 17&BentonRdA5397,57205344,5810285610TOTAL12,214164SR 211&MidwayRdSEA4025,1374094086,7264441672612TOTAL12,12497US 421&MyrtleGroveRdA958,209046600TOTAL8,209174SR 211&StoneChimneyRdA1737,60623136338514TOTAL7,99192US 421&RiverRdA917,87827636400TOTAL7,878170SR 211&ZionHillRdA1677,35167342431110TOTAL7,662120SR 132&MohicanTrailA1184,329423357003883,318949TOTAL7,647 BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity11,158W82843,81080283,81084581,6985981NE83983,81083973,81095248S82843,81080283,81084581,69814531W80283,81084601,69882843,81020887NE83983,81083973,810255130SW80283,81084601,69882843,810317530N80283,81084601,69882843,810367322W80283,81084601,69882843,810436197NW80283,81084601,69882843,810125116SW80283,81084601,69882843,810 BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR02)Scenario123456789101112Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)3.94.45.76.33.53.54.04.55.03.06.36.0Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)15.213.610.59.617.217.215.113.311.920.09.610.0TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork43,16843,41960,02560,36235,01939,70439,94147,16447,50131,28367,64443,271TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR02,Scenario1)ElapsedTime(hours)123456RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)Travel Time (min)Speed Travel TimeSpeed Travel TimeSpeedTravel TimeSpeed Travel TimeSpeed Travel TimeSR 21113.815.453.712.765.012.765.332.825.241.619.944.818.5SR 8712.632.223.57.0107.58.193.611.864.125.130.258.413.0SR 13311.645.815.245.715.254.012.959.411.759.411.759.411.7 BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR02,Scenario1EPZExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)123456CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeInterval251,8643,7495,7767,6049,40510,82123%19%19%21%24%25%376552,3404,0054,4664,5284,5418%12%13%12%11%11%787742,6033,8714,1294,2774,31410%13%13%11%11%10%801,5013,8476,1137,3457,5977,65818%19%20%20%19%18%841324946567137457522%2%2%2%2%2%1152,5615,2997,6248,84810,02710,98731%27%25%25%25%26%1186451,6342,3682,9203,3283,4948%8%8%8%8%8%471112172021210.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%

BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Weekend,GoodWeather(Scenario10)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE BrunswickNuclearPlantJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXKEvacuationRoadwayNetwork BrunswickNuclearPlantK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto32moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 33)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinMarch2012.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyit sroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.ThegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwaytypeidentifiedinTableK 1isgenerallybasedonthefollowingcriteria: Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehav ebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseac hnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thelocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovided.

BrunswickNuclearPlantK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.BrunswickNuclearPlantLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork BrunswickNuclearPlantK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber11450NUCLEARPOWERPLANTENTRANCELOCALROADWAY 2787 112 413503025 22157DOSHERCUTOFFSECOLLECTOR3049 112 017503024 32451SR 87MINORARTERIAL2282 112 117006024 432SR 87MINORARTERIAL1115 112 117506024 569SR 87MINORARTERIAL10983 112 017506024 6632SR 133MINORARTERIAL9477 112 117006024 7910SR 87MINORARTERIAL3378 112 017005015 81012SR 87MINORARTERIAL6034 112 017505015 91214SR 87MINORARTERIAL6238 112 417006015 101415SR 87MINORARTERIAL2961 112 417006015 111516SR 87MINORARTERIAL3841 112 417006015 121617SR 87MINORARTERIAL4501 112 417006014 1317493SR 87MINORARTERIAL1389 112 4170060 8 141819SR 87MINORARTERIAL3505 112 4170060 8 1519498SR 87MINORARTERIAL2888 112 4170060 8 162122SR 87MINORARTERIAL1950 112 0170060 9 1721330FUNSTONRDSELOCALROADWAY 3734 180170055 9 182223SR 87MINORARTERIAL3404 112 0170060 8 192324SR 87MINORARTERIAL2970 112 0170060 8 202425SR 87MINORARTERIAL4887 112 0175060 2 2125283US 17MINORARTERIAL3046 212 1190060 2 2225536US 17MINORARTERIAL1187 212 1190060 2 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber2326537US 17MINORARTERIAL1016 212 1190060 2 2426543US 17MINORARTERIAL1514 212 1190060 2 252728US 17MINORARTERIAL10313 212 4190070 2 2627542US 17MINORARTERIAL2347 212 1190060 2 272827US 17MINORARTERIAL10313 212 4190060 2 EXITLINK288028US 17MINORARTERIAL1835 112 4190035 3 283234SR 133MINORARTERIAL5455 112 117006015 293435SR 133MINORARTERIAL13781 112 017006016 3035511SR 133MINORARTERIAL11205 112 117006016 313839SR 133MINORARTERIAL1690 112 117005010 3239531SR 133MINORARTERIAL8469 112 117006010 3343334DAWSCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 1884 180170045 4 3443457SR 133MINORARTERIAL3825 112 0170050 4 354445SR 133MINORARTERIAL4020 112 0170060 4 364546SR 133MINORARTERIAL5163 112 0170060 4 3746458SR 133MINORARTERIAL2046 112 0170060 4 385512EBOILINGSPRINGRDLOCALROADWAY 11596 112 417505015 395557ALTONLENNONDRLOCALROADWAY 5122 112 417004015 405759EDENDRLOCALROADWAY 3699 112 49002015 415963FIFITYLAKESDRLOCALROADWAY 2373 111 017004015 4259452FIFITYLAKESDRLOCALROADWAY 1160 111 015753515 436010FIFITYLAKESDRLOCALROADWAY 4999 111 017004015 446334FIFITYLAKESDRLOCALROADWAY 2276 111 017004015 4565386US 421MINORARTERIAL730 111 39002026 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber466871US 421MINORARTERIAL9131 111 317503526 477172AVEKLOCALROADWAY 2722 112 49002026 487175US 421MINORARTERIAL7777 112 215753520 497271AVEKLOCALROADWAY 2722 112 417504026 507278DOWRDSLOCALROADWAY 7995 111 017006020 5175302OCEANBLVDLOCALROADWAY 1055 112 413503020 5275346US 421MINORARTERIAL2836 112 415753520 5376300ATLANTAAVELOCALROADWAY 2017 112 413503020 5476366US 421MINORARTERIAL313 115 815753520 5578347DOWRDNLOCALROADWAY 2764 112 117005020 568081DOWRDNLOCALROADWAY 3500 112 117004518 5781509DOWRDNLOCALROADWAY 985 212 419004518 588384US 421MINORARTERIAL427 112 017503020 598485US 421MINORARTERIAL644 112 017503018 6084297HARPERAVELOCALROADWAY 1791 112 417004018 618587US 421MINORARTERIAL2710 212 017503518 628789US 421MINORARTERIAL1722 212 017503518 638990US 421MINORARTERIAL1112 212 417505018 649091US 421MINORARTERIAL3621 212 419005018 659192US 421MINORARTERIAL1558 212 417505018 669295US 421MINORARTERIAL4932 212 019006011 6792364RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 158 110 49002011 689597US 421MINORARTERIAL4075 212 017506011 6997100US 421MINORARTERIAL5355 212 417506011 7097466MYRTLEGROVERDLOCALROADWAY 3206 112 417005011 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber71100102US 421MINORARTERIAL1925 212 017506011 72102502US 421MINORARTERIAL1024 212 017506011 73105107US 421MINORARTERIAL2782 212 0190055 5 74107109US 421MINORARTERIAL2712 212 0175045 5 75109110US 421MINORARTERIAL1206 212 4175045 5 76109118SR 132MINORARTERIAL1665 212 4175050 5 77110499US 421MINORARTERIAL3407 212 4190045 5 78113397US 421MINORARTERIAL4584 212 4190045 5 79118120SR 132MINORARTERIAL4467 212 4175050 5 80120398SR 132MINORARTERIAL3095 212 4190050 5 81122124RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 2928 112 4170060 5 82124125RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 8812 112 4170060 5 83125126RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 2569 112 4170060 5 84126468RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 3827 112 4170060 5 85131133MYRTLEGROVERDLOCALROADWAY 5396 110 017005011 86131466MYRTLEGROVERDLOCALROADWAY 4089 112 417004011 87133135MYRTLEGROVERDLOCALROADWAY 6430 110 0170045 6 88135388MASONBOROLOOPRDLOCALROADWAY 5611 111 0170040 6 89138139RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 2863 112 417005017 90139465RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 1368 112 417005011 91142352RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 2207 112 417005011 92144469FERRYEXITLOCALROADWAY 1024 112 46751531 93145525SR 211MINORARTERIAL1398 112 417004531 94148149SR 211MINORARTERIAL3596 112 817503031 95149391SR 211MINORARTERIAL1214 112 813503032 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber96151475SR 211MINORARTERIAL969 112 017003530 97153156SR 211MINORARTERIAL1897 112 017504530 98153290SR 87MINORARTERIAL390 112 117006030 991553SR 87MINORARTERIAL1792 112 117006024 100156477SR 211MINORARTERIAL643 112 017004530 1011572DOSHERCUTOFFSECOLLECTOR3011 112 017503024 102157159SR 211MINORARTERIAL4152 112 017504524 103159157SR 211MINORARTERIAL4144 112 017504524 104159393SR 211MINORARTERIAL7534 112 217005024 105162408SR 211MINORARTERIAL6556 112 417506023 106164167SR 211MINORARTERIAL18224 112 417006023 107164410MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 1559 111 317004523 108167164SR 211MINORARTERIAL18223 112 417506023 109167170SR 211MINORARTERIAL14697 112 417506522 110170167SR 211MINORARTERIAL14698 112 417506522 111170172SR 211MINORARTERIAL7652 112 417006021 112172173SR 211MINORARTERIAL2942 112 417006021 113173174SR 211MINORARTERIAL2347 112 417506012 114174175SR 211MINORARTERIAL1737 112 417505012 115175284US 17MINORARTERIAL6368 212 419006012 116175459SR 211MINORARTERIAL1866 112 417005012 117175534US 17MINORARTERIAL2519 212 419006012 118176460SR 211MINORARTERIAL3576 112 417005512 119180340SR 133MINORARTERIAL4836 212 017504530 120183317EOAKISLANDDRCOLLECTOR5440 112 415753530 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber121183394SR 133MINORARTERIAL6068 112 417004030 122186187EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 1866 112 417503529 123186317EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 2714 112 415753529 124187186EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 1862 112 415753529 125187323EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 4877 112 415753529 126190194EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 3365 112 417005029 127190323EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 3214 112 417005029 128191190NE29THSTLOCALROADWAY 1901 112 415753529 129191339EYACHTDRLOCALROADWAY 5527 19015753529 130194190EOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 3438 112 417005029 131194405WOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 3303 112 417005029 132199325WYACHTDRLOCALROADWAY 882 110 013503028 133199337WOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 3958 110 015753528 134202191EYACHTDRLOCALROADWAY 12830 19015753529 135207186NE64THSTLOCALROADWAY 2100 19015753529 136214187NE58THSTLOCALROADWAY 986 112 417503029 137216183SR 133MINORARTERIAL1283 112 417503030 138217167SUNSETHARBORRDSELOCALROADWAY 1637 110 217005522 139219217SUNSETHARBORRDSELOCALROADWAY 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49002011 284364365RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 1373 110 417004518 285365359RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 1491 110 417004518 28636683US 421MINORARTERIAL935 115 817503020 287369107JULIADRLOCALROADWAY 1484 112 4135030 5 288370105SANDERSRDLOCALROADWAY 4963 112 4175040 5 289370122RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 2816 112 4170060 5 290371102WINDGATEDRLOCALROADWAY 2307 112 417504011 291372100HALYBURTONMEMORIALPKWYLOCALROADWAY 634 112 017503011 292373100WELBORNRDLOCALROADWAY 528 112 017503011 29337490SHOPPINGCENTERENTRANCELOCALROADWAY 224 112 017504018 29437590SHOPPINGCENTERENTRANCELOCALROADWAY 466 112 017504018 29537687SHOPPINGCENTERENTRANCELOCALROADWAY 319 212 017503018 29637785KINGAVELOCALROADWAY 500 212 017503018 29737883CAPEFEARBLVDLOCALROADWAY 533 112 417504020 29837983CAPEFEARBLVDLOCALROADWAY 453 112 417504020 299380331FUNSTONRDSELOCALROADWAY 3240 180170055 9 300380381FUNSTONRDSELOCALROADWAY 4344 180170055 9 301381380FUNSTONRDSELOCALROADWAY 4344 180170055 9 302381382DAWSCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 1828 180170055 9 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318393162SR 211MINORARTERIAL5366 112 217506024 338414280US 17MINORARTERIAL5401 212 4190060 8 339415252MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 2524 112 417006014 340416415MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 3280 112 417006014 341417272GILBERTRDSELOCALROADWAY 1609 110 017005513 342418417GILBERTRDSELOCALROADWAY 2741 110 017005522 343419277US 17MINORARTERIAL858 111 017005512 344419488US 17MINORARTERIAL2409 111 017005512 345420264US 17MINORARTERIAL1528 111 017005513 346420265US 17MINORARTERIAL3093 111 017005512 347421288STONECHIMNEYRDSWLOCALROADWAY 1496 110 017005521 348422350STONECHIMNEYRDSWLOCALROADWAY 2528 112 417004021 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber349423422STONECHIMNEYRDSWLOCALROADWAY 2666 112 417004027 350424170ZIONHILLRDSELOCALROADWAY 1959 111 017505021 351425237ZIONHILLRDSELOCALROADWAY 1416 110 013503021 352426425ZIONHILLRDSELOCALROADWAY 3219 110 013503021 353427426ZIONHILLRDSELOCALROADWAY 3597 110 017004522 354428402MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 3557 212 419006023 355429430EYACHTDRLOCALROADWAY 2221 19015753529 356430207EYACHTDRLOCALROADWAY 354 19015753529 357431216COUNTRYCLUBRDLOCALROADWAY 1502 112 413503030 358432291STJAMESDRSELOCALROADWAY 3273 112 417004524 319394443SR 133MINORARTERIAL3120 112 017004530 320395142RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 10476 112 417005011 321396449W9THSTLOCALROADWAY 1394 112 411252530 EXITLINK3978397US 421MINORARTERIAL684 212 4190045 5 EXITLINK3988398SR 132MINORARTERIAL770 212 4190050 5 322400442MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 3336 212 419006029 323401428MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 2750 212 419006023 324402164MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 4784 111 317504523 325403321EBEACHDRLOCALROADWAY 5950 110 417004529 326403322EBEACHDRLOCALROADWAY 5864 110 417004529 32740440319THPLELOCALROADWAY 792 112 415003029 328405194WOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 3303 112 417005029 329405320WOAKISLANDDRLOCALROADWAY 2811 112 417505029 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber330406405NE9THSTLOCALROADWAY 1018 112 413503029 331408164SR 211MINORARTERIAL6721 112 417506023 332409408WYNDMEREDRLOCALROADWAY 2089 112 417504023 333410242MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 825 111 317004523 334411246MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 418 111 317005523 335412411MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 5755 111 317005523 336413247MIDWAYRDSELOCALROADWAY 2210 112 417006014 337414258US 17MINORARTERIAL5078 212 4190060 7 359433432STJAMESDRSELOCALROADWAY 1631 112 417004529 360434435STJAMESDRSELOCALROADWAY 2753 112 417004029 361435286STJAMESDRSELOCALROADWAY 3516 112 417004029 362436434STJAMESDRSELOCALROADWAY 1590 112 417004029 363437436STJAMESDRSELOCALROADWAY 919 112 417004029 364438318TRAILWOODDRLOCALROADWAY 1670 212 419003029 365439438TRAILWOODDRLOCALROADWAY 2181 212 419003029 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8 409483490DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 1627 110 0170045 8 410484255US 17MINORARTERIAL3076 111 117004014 411484280US 17MINORARTERIAL5128 112 4170065 8 412484483DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 748 110 0170045 8 413486279US 17MINORARTERIAL13411 212 419006013 414486544US 17MINORARTERIAL2767 212 417506012 415487486COLLEGERDLOCALROADWAY 1860 112 419003012 416488265US 17MINORARTERIAL1264 111 017005512 417488419US 17MINORARTERIAL2409 111 017005512 418489488BRUNSWICKCOUNTYACADEMYLOCALROADWAY 326 212 417003012 419490483DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 1627 110 0170045 8 420490491DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 5645 110 0170060 8 421491490DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 5645 110 0170060 8 422491492DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 4047 110 0170060 8 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber423492491DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 4049 110 0170060 8 424492493DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 4148 110 0170060 8 42549318SR 87MINORARTERIAL2282 112 4170060 8 426493492DANFORDRDSELOCALROADWAY 4148 110 0170060 8 427494280US 17MINORARTERIAL4644 212 1190060 8 428494281US 17MINORARTERIAL8133 212 1190060 8 429494495MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 2774 180170060 8 430495494MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 2774 180170060 8 431495496MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 4813 180170060 8 432496495MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 4813 180170060 8 433496497MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 4237 180170050 8 434497496MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 4218 180170050 8 435497498MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 1908 180170050 8 43649821SR 87MINORARTERIAL1500 112 4170060 9 437498497MILLCREEKRDSELOCALROADWAY 1908 180170050 8 438499113US 421MINORARTERIAL3767 212 4190045 5 439500499SILVERLAKEDRLOCALROADWAY 1863 112 4135030 5 440501499SHADETREELNLOCALROADWAY 845 112 2135030 5 441502105US 421MINORARTERIAL5382 212 017506011 442503502STATERD1276LOCALROADWAY 674 112 017503011 44350489RISLEYRDLOCALROADWAY 467 112 017503018 444505508US 421MINORARTERIAL1319 111 315753526 445506505LOGGERHEADRDLOCALROADWAY 2381 111 313503026 446507508BATTLEACRERDLOCALROADWAY 364 111 315753526 44750868US 421MINORARTERIAL1808 111 315753526 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber44850989DOWRDNLOCALROADWAY 1329 212 417504518 449510509ARDLOCALROADWAY 1087 212 419003018 45051138SR 133MINORARTERIAL2841 112 117005510 451512511ORTONRDSELOCALROADWAY 1150 112 013503016 452513451JRSLANELOCALROADWAY 418 112 413503024 453514151E9THSTLOCALROADWAY 379 112 017503030 454515383ELEONARDSTLOCALROADWAY 4680 112 017004531 455516180SR 133MINORARTERIAL1756 112 017005530 456517516AIRPORTRDSELOCALROADWAY 563 112 017503030 457518424VIRGINIAWILLIAMSONELEMENTARYSCHOOLLOCALROADWAY 1259 212 019003021 458520377CANALDRLOCALROADWAY 6678 112 417502518 459521520FLORIDAAVELOCALROADWAY 872 112 413503018 460522384MOTSPACCESSRDLOCALROADWAY 9647 112 415753525 46152384CAROLINABEACHAVENLOCALROADWAY 367 112 017502020 462523377CANALDRLOCALROADWAY 630 112 417502518 463524305EBEACHDRLOCALROADWAY 296 110 46751529 464525526SR 211MINORARTERIAL229 112 49002031 465526527SR 211MINORARTERIAL224 112 49002031 466527528SR 211MINORARTERIAL232 112 49002031 467528148SR 211MINORARTERIAL3443 112 417004031 468529527HARBOROAKSDRLOCALROADWAY 434 112 413503031 469530464RIVERRDLOCALROADWAY 2170 110 417005018 470531287SR 133MINORARTERIAL8216 112 117006010 471532533OCEANBLVDELOCALROADWAY 2689 112 411252527 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumberEXITLINK5338533OCEANBLVDELOCALROADWAY 2664 112 411252527 472534175US 17MINORARTERIAL2533 212 417506012 473534275US 17MINORARTERIAL2686 212 417506012 474535279RANDOLPHVILLERDNELOCALROADWAY 4363 112 017004013 47553626US 17MINORARTERIAL1056 212 1175060 2 476536537US 17MINORARTERIAL79 112 190020 2 47753725US 17MINORARTERIAL1213 212 1190060 2 478538540US 17MINORARTERIAL1337 212 419006012 479539275US 17MINORARTERIAL1736 212 417506012 480539538US 17U TURNMINORARTERIAL771 212 417502012 481540295US 17MINORARTERIAL859 212 419006012 482540541US 17U TURNMINORARTERIAL482 212 417503012 483541539US 17MINORARTERIAL1041 212 417506012 48454226US 17MINORARTERIAL1497 212 1175060 2 48554327US 17MINORARTERIAL2330 212 1190060 2 486543542US 17U TURNMINORARTERIAL126 112 490020 2 487544277US 17MINORARTERIAL1463 212 419006012 488545486US 17MINORARTERIAL3078 212 419006012 489545544US 17U TURNMINORARTERIAL316 212 417502012 490802828US 17MINORARTERIAL1835 212 4190070 3 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber2229458275715Actuated243229528374848Stop246229347386169Actuated249228753095406Actuated1510228570898250Stop15122282555103394Actuated15212276560128212Stop9252273447140684Stop2262274291142724Actuated2342295000100577Stop15382316124117955Stop10432308204139972Stop471233127192217Actuated2675233366199617Stop20762334816103910Stop20782329448100853Stop20802330717105034Stop20812331699108393Stop18832334959105084Actuated20842335080105494Actuated20852335087106138Actuated18872333944108582Actuated18892333178110124Actuated18902333188111236Actuated18922333654116371Actuated11972334069125197Actuated111002333126130468Actuated111022332915132382Actuated111052332968138769Actuated51072334217141256Stop51092334657143932Actuated51102333891144864Actuated51182335067145545Actuated51202335176150011Actuated51312337194131521Stop111352339703142955Stop6149229753962673Actuated32 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber151229669466264Actuated30153229528470120Actuated30156229452971860Actuated30157229268173550Actuated30159228880074970Actuated24162227636378395Actuated24164226356681932Actuated23167224600686803Stop22170223183990717Actuated21174222169297096Actuated12175222024098049Actuated12183228105459046Actuated30186227303759909Stop29187227123160224Actuated29190226353662409Stop29199224516663999Stop28207227340861975Stop29228224191665778Stop282542256086113807Actuated142582250922117622Stop72652231970105273Stop122662234539103553Stop132752223936101428Actuated122772227561105820Actuated122792242572114897Stop132802260725121267Stop8290229558970362Stop302972333527106387Stop183002332863104415Stop20302233265399926Stop20320225457863088Actuated28323226645861151Stop29340228835274395Actuated243452332441102838Stop203462334499102326Stop203472330277103489Stop203772335578106047Actuated18403226042060403Stop29 BrunswickNuclearPlantK 58KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber405225738162888Stop29408227005580181Actuated23424223197288804Stop21451229409677914Stop24469230453068379Stop31470230333867784Stop31472230411368143Stop31475229642067194Stop30477229405572295Stop304842258046116895Stop84862231331107739Stop124882230717105441Stop124932273946119059Stop84942263338125107Stop84982275756126946Stop84992331735147502Stop55022332799133399Actuated11505232705181024Stop26508232786281973Stop265092332237109199Stop185112314071116061Stop16516228402269427Actuated305202337766112357Stop18525230133568135Yield31526230128168357Yield31527230109568231Yield315372274000141750Stop25382224448102250Actuated125412225366103812Actuated125422274188144219Stop25442228851106511Actuated121 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983NorthCarolinaPlaneZone APPENDIXLZoneBoundaries BrunswickNuclearPlantL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. ZONEBOUNDARIESZoneACounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthbySunnyPointAccessRoadandthesouthernborderoftheSunnyPointMilitaryOceanTerminal;ontheeastbytheCapeFearRiver(bordercenteredintheCapeFearRiver)totheN.C.BaptistAssemblyeastshore(easterntipofOakIsland);onthesouthalongalinefromtheN.C.BaptistAssemblyeas tshorenorthalongthewesternsideofBatteryIslandtoSouthport/SupplyRoad/NorthHoweStreet(NC211),thenwestalongSouthport/SupplyRoad/NorthHoweStreet(NC211);andonthewesttoOakviewDr(SR1549).ThewesternboundaryfollowsOakviewDrtoPineviewDrtoClearviewDrandcontinuesnortheastfromtheendofClearviewDrtotheintersect ionofNC87(GeorgeIIHwy),NC133(RiverRd)andtheSunnyPointAccessRoad.ThiszoneincludesthoseportionsofSouthportNORTHofHoweStreetalongwithSnowMarshIslandandBatteryIsland.ZoneBCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthandeastbySouthport/SupplyRoad(NC211)andNorthHoweStreet(NC87/211)totheendoftheroadinSouthport;onthesouthalongthenorthshoreoftheIntracoastalWaterway;westbyLongBeachRoad(NC133).ThiszoneincludesthoseportionsofSouthportSOUTHofHoweStreet.ZoneCCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ThenorthernboundaryfollowsthenorthshoreoftheIntracoastalWaterwayfromLongBeachRoad(NC133)totheendofSouthport/SupplyRoad(NC211)inSouthport;thensouthalongthewesternsideofBatteryIslandtotheN.C.BaptistAssemblyeastshore(easterntipofOakIsland).ThezoneboundarymovesaroundtheN.C.BaptistAssemblyeastshore(easternen dofOakIsland)tomeettheAtlanticOcean.ThesouthernborderistheAtlanticOceancoastline(CaswellBeach)totheintersectionofLongBeachRd/CountryClubDr(NC133)andJonesStreet.ThewesternboundarymovesnorthonLongBeachRd/CountryClubDr(NC133).ThiszoneincludesthoseportionsofOakIslandEASTofLongBeachRd/CountryClubDr(NC133)alongCaswellBeachRoad-CommunityofCaswellBeach&theN.C.BaptistAssembly.

BrunswickNuclearPlantL 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneDCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ThenorthernboundaryfollowsthenorthshoreoftheIntracoastalWaterwayfromthewesternendofSheepIslandtoNC133(LongBeachRoad).TheeasternboundaryfollowsNC133(LongBeachRoad)tothecoast(atJonesStreet)ontheAtlanticOcean.ThesouthernboundaryfollowsthecoastontheAtlanticOceantoLockwoodFollyInletonthewest.Thebounda ryturnsnorthtowardthewesternendofSheepIsland.ThiszoneincludesthoseportionsofOakIslandwestofNC133(LongBeachRoad)andtheTownofOakIsland(formerlycommunitiesofLongBeach&YauponBeach).ZoneECounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthbySouthport/SupplyRoad(NC211);andontheeastbytheLongBeachRoad(NC133)totheIntracoastalWaterway.ThesouthernboundaryfollowsthenorthshoreoftheIntracoastalWaterwaywesttotheintersectionofSunsetHarborRoad(SR1112)andLockwoodFollyRdSE.ThezoneboundaryturnsnorthonSunsetHarb orRoad(SR1112)tointersectwithSouthport/SupplyRoad(NC211).ZoneFCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthbythesouthernBoliviatownlimitsandbySR1513(DanfordRoad);ontheeastbyNC87(GeorgeIIHwy)totheintersectionofNC87(GeorgeIIHwy),NC133(RiverRd)andtheSunnyPointAccessRoad.TheeasternboundarycontinuessouthwestfromtheintersectionofNC87(GeorgeIIHwy),NC133(RiverRd)andtheSunnyPointAccessRoadtotheendofClearviewRd.ThesouthernboundaryisSouthport/SupplyRoad(NC211)movingwesttotheintersectionofClemmonsRdSE(SR1505).ZoneboundaryonthewestisalongClemmonsRdSE(SR1505)and(SR1504).Boundarylin emovesnorthalongalinefromtheintersectionofClemmonsRdSE(SR1504/1505)andGilbertRdSE(SR1501)totheendofAlbrightRdSE(SR1508).BoundaryfollowsAlbrightRd(SESR1508)andMidwayRdSE(SR1500)andOldOceanHwy(US17)tothesouthernBoliviatownlimit.ZoneincludesBoilingSpringLakesSOUTHWESTofNC87.ZoneGCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthbyFunstonRoad(SR1518);ontheeastbytheSunnyPointRailroadandNC133;andonthewestbyNC87.ZoneincludesBoilingSpringLakesbetweenNC87andtheSunnyPointRailroad.

BrunswickNuclearPlantL 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneHCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthbyalineextendingeastfromtheintersectionofFunstonRoad(SR1518)andDawsCreekRoad(SR1521)alongDawsCreekRoad(SR1521)toNC133aboutonemilesouthofPinelevel;ontheeastandsouthbyNC133totheintersectionofNC133andtheSunnyPointRailroad;andonthewestbytheSunnyPointRailroad.ThezoneincludesGirlScoutCampPrettyPond.ZoneJCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthbyalineextendingeastfromtheintersectionofDawsCreekRoad(SR1521)andNC133totheBrunswick/NewHanovercountyline(centeredintheCapeFearRiver)justsouthofCampbellIsland.ThezoneisborderedontheeastbytheBrunswick/NewHanovercountyline(centeredintheCapeFearRiver)movingsouthtothenorthendofSnowMarshIslandandthesouthernboundaryofSunnyPointMilitaryOceanTerminal.ThezoneboundarymoveswestfollowingthesouthernboundaryofSunnyPointMilitaryOceanTerminaltotheintersectionwithNC133andNC87,andisborderedonthewestbyNC133.ThezoneincludestheSunnyPointMilitaryOceanTerminal,OrtonPlantationandOldBrunswickTown.ZoneKCounty:NewHanoverDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthalongalinefromtheNewHanover/Brunswickcountylineintersection(centeredintheCapeFearRiver)alongSedgleyDrtoWestTelfairCircle.AlongWestTelfairCircletoTelfairDriveandTelfairCourt.FromTelfairCourttoOcracokeDrive,extendingeastacrossUS421SouthSeabreezeRdtothecoastontheAtlanticOcean.Theeasternboundarymovessout halongtheAtlanticOceancoasttoOceanBoulevard.TheboundarymoveswestalongOceanBoulevardtotheintersectionoftheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline(centeredintheCapeFearRiver).TheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline(centeredintheCapeFearRiver)formsthewesternboundaryofthiszo ne.ThezoneincludesSeaBreeze,CarolinaBeach,andCarolinaBeachStatePark.

BrunswickNuclearPlantL 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneLCounty:NewHanoverDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BorderedonthenorthalongalinefromtheNewHanover/Brunswickcountylineintersection(centeredintheCapeFearRiver)alongOceanBoulevardacrossUS421tothecoastontheAtlanticOcean.TheeasternboundarymovessouthalongtheAtlanticOceancoasttotheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline(CorncakeInletarea).TheboundaryturnsnorthwesttowardtheFt.Fisher/SouthportferrylandingandcontinuesoutintotheCapeFearRivertointersecttheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline.TheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline(centeredintheCapeFearRiver)formsthewesternboundaryofthiszone.The zoneincludesKureBeach,Ft.FisherandFederalPoint.ZoneMCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ThenorthernboundaryisalongalinefromtheintersectionoftheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline(centeredintheCapeFearRivernorthofSnowsMarsh)movingsoutheasttotheFt.Fisher/SouthportferrylandingandfollowingtheNewHanover/BrunswickcountylineouttothecoastontheAtlanticOcean(CorncakeInletarea).Theeasternboundarymovessout halongtheAtlanticOceancoasttoapointeastoftheendofCapeCreek.ThesouthernboundaryturnswestalongCapeCreektothemouthofCapeandBayCreeksandacrosstheCapeFearRivertothenorthernshoreofOakIslandattheN.C.BaptistAssemblyGrounds.ThewesternboundarymovesnorthcenteredintheCapeFearRivertotheintersectionoftheNewHanover/Brunswickcountyline(northofSnowMarsh).ThezoneincludesZekeandStrikingIslands.ZoneNCounty:BrunswickDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ThiszoneiscomprisedofBaldHeadIsland.ThenorthernborderisfromthemouthofCapeandBayCreeksalongCapeCreekwiththeboundaryextendingtotheeasttomeettheAtlanticOceanonceCapeCreekends.TheeasternboundarythenmovesalongthecoastwiththeAtlanticOceanontheeastandsouthandthennorthwestuntilitmeetstheCap eFearRiver.TheboundarythenmovesacrosstheCapeFearRivertothesouthernshoreofOakIslandattheN.C.BaptistAssemblyGrounds.ItturnsnorthalongtheeasternendofOakIsland,northernshoreofOakIslandandbackacrosstheCapeFearRivertothemouthofCapeandBayCreeks.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies BrunswickNuclearPlantM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario3,Region2;asummer,weekend,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile3Hours30Minutes5:056:354Hours30Minutes5:056:505Hours30Minutes(Base)5:056:55AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionpersistswithintheEPZforapproximately6hoursand45minutes.Assuch,theETEforthe100 thpercentileisnotaffectedbythetripgenerationtime,butbythetimeneededtoclearthecongestionwithintheEPZ.The90 thpercentileETEarealsonotsensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.

BrunswickNuclearPlantM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario3,Region2;asummer,week end,midday,goodweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheshadowregion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.Theresultsshowthatthe100 thpercentileETEdecreasesby40minutesfromreducingshadowevacuationfrom20%to0%asignificantchange.TriplingtheshadowpercentagemateriallyimpactstheETEbyincreasingitby10minutesforthe90 thpercentile-notasignificantchange.Note,thetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixFindicatethat16%ofhouseholdswouldelecttoevacuateifadvisedtoshelterwhichdiffersfromassumptionof20%noncompliancesuggestedinNUREG/CR 7002.Asensitivitystudywasconsideredusinga16%shadowevacuationandthe100 thpercentileETEdecreasesby25minutes-amaterialchange.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile005:006:15163,5495:056:3020(Base)4,4365:056:556013,3095:156:55

BrunswickNuclearPlantM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ.AspopulationintheEPZchangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.SincetheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacit yratiopresentwithintheEPZ,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. ThechangeinpopulationwithintheEPZwastreatedparametrically.Thepercentpopulationchangewasvariedbetween+5%and+22%.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZareaandtheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.3. Thestudywasperformedforthe2 MileRegion(R01)andtheentir eEPZ(R02).4. ThescenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalues,notincludingspecialeventorroadwayimpactwasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy.ThefollowingscenariosyieldedthehighestETEvalues:Scenario10wasselectedforthe2 MileRegion(R01)forthe90 thpercentile;Scenario2wasselectedforthe2 MileRegion(R01)forthe100 thpercentile;Scenario4wasselectedforthefullEPZ(R02)forboththe90 thand100 thpercentile.TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwhenapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreas eby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatallofthebaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdating.Thosepercentpopulationchangeswhichre sultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutesarehighlightedinredbelow-a22%increaseintheEPZpopulation.DukeEnergywillhavetoestimatetheEPZpopulationonanannualbasis.IftheEPZpopulationincreasesby22%ormore,anupdatedETEanalysiswillbeneeded.TableM 4presentstheresultsofthesamepopulationsensitivitystudyusingthespecialevent(Scenario11)orroadwayimpactscenario(Scenario12)asthebasecase.ThefollowingscenariosyieldedthehighestETEvalues:Scenario12wasselectedforthe2 MileRegion(R01)andfullEPZ(R02)forthe100 thpercentileandforthefullEPZ(R02)forthe90 thpercentile;Scenario11wasselectedforthe2 MileRegion(R01)forthe90 thpercentile.ThosepercentpopulationchangeswhichresultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutesarehighlightedinredbelow-a9%increaseintheEPZpopulation.

BrunswickNuclearPlantM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeEPZResidentPopulationBasePopulationChange5%20%22%35,25037,01342,30043,005ETEfor90 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChange5%20%22%2MILE(Scenario10)2:452:452:452:45FULLEPZ(Scenario4)5:355:406:006:05ETEfor100 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChange5%20%22%2MILE(Scenario2)5:355:355:355:35FULLEPZ(Scenario4)7:307:357:507:50TableM 4.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange-SpecialEvent/RoadwayImpactEPZResidentPopulationBasePopulationChange5%8%9%35,25037,01338,07038,423ETEfor90 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChange5%8%9%2MILE(Scenario11)3:353:353:403:40FULLEPZ(Scenario12)6:056:056:156:20ETEfor100 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChange5%8%9%2MILE(Scenario12)5:355:355:355:35FULLEPZ(Scenario12)7:508:008:158:20 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist BrunswickNuclearPlantN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigure1 1,Figure3 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSection2.1Section3c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.2,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC BrunswickNuclearPlantN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingSection5,AppendixF-4%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 31.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTables6 1,6 2 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTables7 5,7 62.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.Nogrowthofpopulationnecessary.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.60personspervehicle-Table1 3b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesAppendixE-TableE 32.1.2TransientPopulation BrunswickNuclearPlantN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixE,Section6,Page6 4b. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 4toestimatetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections2.1,3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table8 1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection2.3,8.1,8.4,Tables8 5,8 9c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.4 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable8 1-transitdependentsSection8.4-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesSection8.4-page8 5Table8 5,Section8.32.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesAppendixE,TableE 2-listfacilities,location,andpopulation,Section8.3b. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections8.2,8.3 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.5d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3Tables8 4,8 5e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSection3.5NocorrectionalfacilitiesexistwithintheEPZ.2.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable8 2c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesTherearesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolsinasinglewave.2.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figure2 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 92.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffica. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.6Table3 6Section6Table6 4b. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.6 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1d. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4e. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK 1throughK 33presenttheentirelink nodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysis BrunswickNuclearPlantN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC.3.4AdverseWeathera. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table2 2,Section5.3(page5 10)b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.

BrunswickNuclearPlantN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.N/AN/A4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 4presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.

BrunswickNuclearPlantN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 94.1.2TransitDependentResidentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.3-page8 7.Preestablishedbusroutesdonotexist.BasicbusroutesweredevelopedfortheETEanalysis-seeFigure8 2andFigure8 3,Table8 9.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.4c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure8 1 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.3f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.3g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigures8 2,8 3h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4i. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSections8.3,8.4Figure8 1Tables8 10through8 114.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8 4,Tables8 12through8 13b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundsindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesTables8 4,8 12through8 13d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSection8.4 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSection8.4,Table8 4f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSection8.4.Tables8 12through8 13.4.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTable8 6.SchoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables8 6(goodweather)and8 7(rain).OutboundspeedsaredefinedastheminimumoftheevacuationroutespeedandtheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.Inboundspeedsarelimit edtotheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 7through8 8,DiscussioninSection8.4 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4-page8 8e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesReturntripsarenotneededf. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable8 3.Studentsareevacuatedtorelocationschoolswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians.g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesReturntripsarenotneeded.Tables8 7and8 8providetimeneededtoarriveatrelocationschool,whichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary4.2ETEModelinga. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.8.0).Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC.b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused.4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInput BrunswickNuclearPlantN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixBb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 12(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.

BrunswickNuclearPlantN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 94.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2b. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpublicc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3,7 4d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSection8.4Tables8 7through8 8Tables8 10through8 135.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixG BrunswickNuclearPlantN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection7.5,Page7 5,AppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesCommentresolutionformwasprovidedandanyissueswereresolved.5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3discussesamulti waveevacuationprocedure.Figure8 1 BrunswickNuclearPlantN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10 TechnicalReviewer_________________

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