ML12362A472

Evacuation Time Estimates for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone, Cover Through Page 7-1

ML12362A472
Person / Time
Site:	Browns Ferry
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	ARCADIS U.S.
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Tennessee Valley Authority
References
TM120006.0001
Download: ML12362A472 (73)

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Enclosure I Tennessee Valley Authority Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Units 1, 2, and 3 Evacuation Time Estimates for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (See Attached).

fARCADIS Infrastructure Water Environment Buildings Imagine the result Evacuation Time Estimates for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone November 2012 Q ARCADIS Evacuation Time Estimates for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone Prepared for.Tennessee Valley Authority Chattanooga, Tennessee Prepared by: ARCADIS U.S., Inc.10352 Plaza Americana Drive Baton Rouge Louisiana 70816 Tel 225 292 1004 Fax 225 218 9677 Our Ref.: TM120006.0001 Date: November 2012 This document is intended only for the use of the individual or entity for which it was prepared and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. Any dissemination, distribution or copying of this document is strictly prohibited.

V2 ARCADIS Table of Contents Executive Summary v 1. Introduction 1-1 1.1 General 1-1 1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone 1-2 1.3 Designated Reception Centers 1-4 1.4 Overview of Changes from Previous ETE Study 1-4 2. Methodology and Assumptions 2-1 2.1 Sources of Data and General Assumptions 2-1 2.2 Summary of Methodology for Traffic Simulation 2-3 2.3 Conditions Modeled 2-4 2.3.1 Weekday 2-4 2.3.2 Weeknight 2-5 2.3.3 Weekend 2-5 3. Population and Vehicle Demand Evaluation 3-1 3.1 Permanent Residents 3-1 3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population 3-1 3.1.2 Transport-Dependent Permanent Population 3-2 3.2 Seasonal Residents 3-2 3.3 Transient Population 3-2 3.4 Special Facilities Population 3-4 3.4.1 Medical, Nursing Care, and Correctional Facilities 3-4 3.4.2 Schools and Daycare 3-4 3.5 Emergency Response Planning Area Population Totals 3-5 4. Evacuation Roadway Network 4-1 4.1 Network Definition 4-1 4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions 4-1 4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network 4-1 B-w Feny -ETE -VER4.doc-ARCADIS Table of Contents 5. Evacuation Time Estimate Methodology 5-1 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Cases 5-1 5.2 Initial Notification 5-3 5.3 Transportation-Dependent Population 5-3 5.4 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions 5-3 5.4.1 Permanent and Seasonal Population 5-4 5.4.2 Transient Population 5-4 5.4.3 Special Facilities 5-5 5.5 Evacuation Simulation 5-6 5.5.1 General Structure 5-6 5.5.2 Simulation Process 5-7 6. Analysis of Evacuation Times 6-1 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary 6-1 6.2 Comparison with Previous Study 6-1 6.3 Keyhole Evacuation Scenarios 6-2 6.4 Staged Evacuation Scenarios 6-2 6.5 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 6-10 6.5.1 Population Growth 6-10 6.5.2 Roadway Impact 6-11 6.6 Performance Metrics for Simulation Model 6-12 6.7 ETE for Transit-Dependent, Special Facilities, and Schools 6-15 6.8 Special Event 6-20 7. Traffic Control Recommendations 7-1 7.1 General 7-1 7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations 7-1 7.3 Traffic Management Locations and Tactics to Facilitate Evacuation 7-1 Browns Feny -ETE -VER4.do=ii 0 ARCADIS Tables Table 1-1 Permanent Resident Population in the Browns Ferry EPZ Table 1-2 Designated Reception Centers for Evacuation Table 1-3 ETE Comparison Table 3-1 Resident Population and Vehicle Demand by EPZ Subarea Table 3-2 Transient Population and Vehicle Demand Within the Browns Ferry EPZ Table 3-3 Population and Vehicle Demand for Schools and Special Facilities in the Browns Ferry EPZ Table 3-4 Summary of Population and Vehicle Demand Within the Browns Ferry EPZ Table 4-1 Browns Ferry EPZ Primary Evacuation Routes Out of EPZ Table 5-1 Potential Evacuation Areas for Browns Ferry EPZ Table 6-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Browns Ferry EPZ Table 6-2 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (2-mile Zone Plus 5-mile downwind, unstaged)Table 6-3 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (5-mile Zone Plus 10-mile downwind, unstaged)Table 6-4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Staged EPZ Scenarios (2-mile Zone, then 5-miles downwind)Table 6-5 Summary of Network Performace (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table 6-6 ETE for Special Facilities, Browns Ferry EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table 6-7 ETE for Schools and Daycares, Browns Ferry EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table 7-1 Predicted Queuing at Major Intersections (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table of Contents 1-9 1-10 1-11 3-6 3-7 3-8 3-9 4-3 5-2 6-4 6-5 6-6 6-9 6-13 6-17 6-18 7-1 B FenY -ETE -VER4.doc=iii Q- ARCADIS Figures Table of Contents Figure 1-1 Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Site Location Figure 1-2 Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant EPZ Area Figure 1-3 2010 Permanent Resident Population by EPZ Area Figure 4-1 Designated Evacuation Routes for Browns Ferry EPZ Figure 5-1 Departure Time Distributions for the Browns Ferry EPZ Figure 5-2 Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Using PTV Vision Suite Figure 6-1 Stage 2 Departure Time Distributions for the Brown Ferry EPZ Figure 6-2 ETE Population Growth Sensitivity Analysis Figure 6-3 Comparison of Traffic Flows Before and After Road Closure Scenario Figure 6-4 Time Distribtuion of Vehicles on the Network (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Figure 6-5 Comparison of Vehicle Mobilization and Departure Routes (Total Vehicles 38,807)Appendices A Geographical Boundaries of ERPAs B Transient and Special Facility Population Data C Population Data Maps D Roadway Network Map and Data Table E Telephone Survey of EPZ Residents (Results Summary and Survey Instrument)

F Maps of Average Speed by Hour on Browns Ferry Road Network (Winter Day, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)1-6 1-7 1-8 4-5 5-6 5-7 6-3 6-11 6-12 6-14 6-15 Brý,ns Fewry -ETE -VER4.doci iv ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Executive Summary This report documents the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) study prepared by ARCADIS U.S., Inc. for the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant (BFN) located in Limestone County, Alabama, near the cities of Athens and Decatur. The study reflects the current definition of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), which is the region within a nominal 10-mile distance of BFN. The previous study of evacuation time estimates for BFN was performed in 2008.The present study was performed using population data from the 2010 U.S. Census.PTV Vision software was used to perform evacuation modeling for various scenarios.

The PTV Vision traffic simulation software package includes VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation) and VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation).

VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling, and network data management.

VISSIM is capable of performing detailed microscopic simulation of traffic and can model any type of traffic signal control and geometric configuration.

The road network used in the evacuation simulations consists of designated evacuation routes plus any additional roadways needed to accurately simulate conditions during an evacuation.

Roadway capacities were determined using NAVTEQ T M digital data, updated by ARCADIS based on actual road and intersection data collected in the field in 2012.Evacuees were generally assumed to proceed out of the EPZ via recommended evacuation routes and to make their way to designated reception centers after leaving the EPZ.The EPZ for BFN includes portions of four counties in Alabama (Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, and Morgan). The resident population of the Browns Ferry EPZ was estimated at 45,776 permanent residents.

Based on housing data from the 2010 U.S. Census, there are 645 seasonal housing units in the EPZ, with an estimated 1,442 seasonal (summer)residents.

The 2010 U.S. Census data at block level was used to determine the population in each EPZ subarea.The transient population, which includes larger workplaces, recreational facilities, and motels, was estimated at 18,311 persons for a winter weekday and 18,532 persons for a summer weekday. The special facilities population, including assisted living, nursing homes, and hospitals, was estimated at 1,019 persons for weekday scenarios.

The estimated population of schools and daycare centers for a winter weekday is 11,197, including students and staff. These population estimates include intrinsic double-counting, as some persons in the transient and special facility populations are also included in the Browns Ferry -ETE -VER4.docx V ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates permanent and seasonal resident counts. Thus, evacuation times using these population figures are considered conservative.

Vehicle demand for the resident population was developed based on estimated vehicle occupancy, using data obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.

The vehicle occupancy factor estimated from survey responses is 2.06 persons per vehicle, which represents 1.39 vehicles per household.

For the 2008 study, vehicle occupancy was 2.45 persons per vehicle (one vehicle per household).

Vehicle demand for the transient population was estimated using vehicle occupancy factors ranging from 1.0 person per vehicle for the workforce population up to 3.0 persons per vehicle for some recreational areas. Vehicle demand for the school population was based on bus occupancy of 55 students.

For nursing homes, vehicle occupancy is 20 persons per bus or van for residents, and two persons per ambulance for non-ambulatory patients.

For nights and weekends, all facility staff would accompany patients; during weekdays, one vehicle per person was assigned for additional staff.Total vehicle demand for all population categories ranges from 26,659 (winter weeknight) to 38,807 (winter weekday).Vehicle demand was also assigned to account for the potential "shadow evacuation" of the population residing immediately outside the EPZ, to a distance of 15 miles. The permanent resident population within this region is 81,302. It was assumed that 20 percent of the population in this region would evacuate.

The occupancy factor for EPZ residents (2.06 persons per vehicle) was applied to estimate vehicle demand for this population.

Shadow evacuees residing outside the EPZ add vehicle demand of 7,893 vehicles.Evacuation times were estimated for evacuation of the entire EPZ for winter weekday (daytime and evening), winter weekend day, summer weekday (daytime and evening), and summer weekend day cases under fair weather conditions.

The weekday daytime cases were also evaluated for adverse weather conditions (snow and rain for winter and summer, respectively).

Evacuation times were also estimated for one special event, a soccer tournament at the Jack Allen Complex in Decatur.A "staged evacuation" scenario was also evaluated for the winter daytime case. Under this scenario, only the population within the 2-mile zones closest to BFN would evacuate initially; evacuation of surrounding zones would be initiated after most traffic from the 2-mile zones has cleared. The purpose of this scenario is to assess the vi Bmos Fefy -ETE -VER4.docv ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates potential reduction in evacuation times that might be achieved for the population at greatest risk.Simulations were also performed to assess the potential impact of population growth on predicted evacuation times. This sensitivity analysis is used to define a threshold population figure that would trigger another ETE update study.Evacuation time estimates for vehicles to depart from the 2-mile zone, 5-mile zone, and for the full 10-mile EPZ are summarized in Table E-1. The 100 percent evacuation times for normal weather scenarios are under 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />. Adverse weather scenarios typically add 90 minutes to the 100 percent evacuation time, with a maximum ETE of slightly less than 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br />. The 90 percent times to evacuate the 2-mile inner ring are 50 to 105 minutes shorter than times to evacuate the full EPZ. Results for "keyhole" evacuation scenarios (inner 2-mile zone plus downwind zones to 10 miles) indicate that zone D-1 0, which includes the city of Decatur, takes the longest time to evacuate.Most traffic congestion in the EPZ is predicted for scenarios that include the cities of Athens and Decatur.Table E-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Browns Ferry EPZ P Scerna~rIo:

(10) " (2) " (3)q (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)1 Weather: INormal IAdverse INormal INormal Normal Adverse Normal Normal Evacuation Area: 1 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes) 2-mile Zone 1:30 1:40 1:50 1:40 1:30 1:45 1:50 1:40 5-mile Zone 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:05 2:30 1:50 1:50 10-mile EPZ 3:05 3:25 2:40 2:50 3:15 3:50 2:35 2:45 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes) 5-mile Zone 3:25 4:00 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:05 3:10 3:10 10-mile EPZ 5:10 6:20 4:25 5:00 5:20 6:50 3:50 4:40 Brows Feny -ETE -VER4.docv Ai ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 1. Introduction

1.1 General

Evacuation time studies analyze the manner in which the population within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding a nuclear power plant site would evacuate during a radiological emergency.

Evacuation time studies provide licensees and state and local governments with site-specific information that is helpful for protective action decision-making.

The studies estimate the time necessary to evacuate the EPZ for a range of evacuation scenarios.

Analysis of the evacuation simulation results also identifies locations where traffic management and control measures can facilitate the evacuation, and may identify unique evacuation constraints or conditions.

Estimates of the time required to evacuate from areas around nuclear power plant sites are required for all operating plants in the United States. Federal guidance has been prepared to outline the format and content of these evacuation time estimates (NUREG-0654, Rev. 1,1 NUREG/CR-4831,2 and NUREG/CR-70023).

Evacuation time estimate (ETE) studies were last updated for the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant (BFN) Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ in 2008.4 The guidance presented in NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the evacuation time estimates should be updated as 1 Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-0654, FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980.2 State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-4831, T. E. Urbanik and J. D. Jamison, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 1992.3 Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, J. Jones and F. Walton, Sandia National Laboratories, and B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, November 2011.4 Evacuation Time Estimate:

Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, prepared by IEM, Inc. for TVA and Alabama Emergency Management Agency, August 2008.Browns Feny -ETE -VER4.docx 1-1 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates local conditions change, but at least once each decade, following release of the federal census. The current update study was prompted by the issuance of revised ETE guidance (CR-7002) and the availability of population data from the 2010 U.S. Census.Census data indicate that the population residing within the EPZ for BFN increased by 1,703 between 2000 and 2010, which represents a 3.9 percent population increase.(Population data are discussed further in Section 1.4.)The evacuation time estimates have been developed using current population, local roadway network characteristics, and the PTV Vision traffic simulation software package to perform evacuation modeling for various scenarios.

PTV Vision includes the VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation) and VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation) models. Evacuation times have been estimated for various areas, times, and weather conditions, as outlined in CR-7002. These evacuation times represent the times required for completing the following actions:* Public notification

• Preparation and mobilization

• Actual movement out of the EPZ (i.e., on-road travel time, including delays associated with vehicle queuing)1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone This report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing evacuation time estimates for BFN. The emergency response plan is designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event that an evacuation is ordered as a protective action in response to an accident at BFN.BFN is located in Limestone County, Alabama, along the north side of Wheeler Lake, approximately 10 miles southwest of the City of Athens. The City of Decatur is approximately 10 miles southeast and the City of Huntsville is approximately 28 miles east of the plant. The site location is shown on Figure 1-1. The plume exposure pathway EPZ is the geographic area surrounding a nuclear power plant within which the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires advance planning for evacuation or other short-term protective actions in the event of a radiological emergency.

The Browns Ferry EPZ consists of the area within an approximate 10-mile radius of BFN, as shown on Figure 1-2. The EPZ includes portions of four Alabama counties (Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, and Morgan).Brown Fety -ETE -VER4.doc-1-2 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates The Browns Ferry EPZ is subdivided into 20 sectors or subareas, or Emergency Response Protection Areas (ERPAs). These ERPAs are the basic units for which protective action recommendations are issued. Subarea boundaries often follow geographic or political (township) boundaries and reflect distance and direction from BFN. The distance ranges of concern are 0 to 2 miles, 2 to 5 miles, and more than 5 miles. EPZ and ERPA boundaries are shown on Figure 1-2. The northern side of the EPZ, accounting for almost half of the total EPZ area, is in Limestone County. ERPAs 1-10 and J-10, in the northwestern quadrant of the EPZ, are in Lauderdale County. The seven ERPAs on the southern side of the EPZ are in Lawrence County and four ERPAs are in Morgan County. Appendix A contains boundary descriptions of the ERPAs.A listing of the 2010 permanent resident population by ERPA within the Browns Ferry EPZ is shown on Figure 1-3 (a sector diagram is provided in Appendix C). Table 1-1 compares the EPZ population from the 2010 and the 2000 U.S. Census. The population residing in the EPZ grew by 1,703 between 2000 and 2010, an increase of 3.9 percent. ERPA B-2 grew by more than 20 percent and ERPAs C-10 and D-10 grew by 10 percent or more. ERPAs F-2, E-5, F-5, G-5, and J-1 0 declined by more than 20 percent. More than 25 percent of the EPZ population of 45,776 residents is in ERPA D-10, which includes parts of the City of Decatur. Four other ERPAs (A-10, B-1 0, C-1 0, and F-10) have more than 3,000 residents.

ERPAs within 0 to 2 miles are rural, with close to 500 residents in them combined.

ERPAs within 0 to 5 miles have approximately 3,500 residents in them combined.

Between 2000 and 2010, the population of 0 to 2 miles increased by 4 percent and 0 to 5 miles decreased by 4 percent. Between 2000 and 2010, the combined population of all the ERPAs in Limestone County and Morgan County increased by 3 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

Between 2000 and 2010, the combined population of all the ERPAs in Lawrence County and Lauderdale County decreased by 7 percent each.United States Highway 72 (U.S. Highway 72), U.S. Highway 31, and State Highways 20, 24, 33, 67, and 157 are major evacuation roadways in the EPZ. Wheeler Lake crosses the EPZ from the northwest to the southeast.

Interstate 65 (1-65) runs north and south outside the eastern limits of the EPZ.NRC guidance also requires consideration of potential "shadow evacuation" of the population residing immediately outside of the EPZ, to a distance of 15 miles. The permanent resident population within this region is 81,302. It was assumed (based on NRC guidance in CR-7002) that 20 percent of the population in this region would evacuate.

The occupancy factor for EPZ residents (2.06 per vehicle) was applied to Brows Feny -ETE -VER4.do 1-3

-1 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates estimate vehicle demand for this population.

Shadow evacuees residing outside the EPZ add vehicle demand of 7,893 vehicles.1.3 Designated Reception Centers The Browns Ferry emergency response evacuation plan directs residents of communities within the EPZ to evacuate to specified reception centers. If evacuation is initiated while schools are in session, students will be transported directly to designated host schools, and families are instructed to meet up with the students at those locations.

The designated reception centers for ERPAs within the Browns Ferry EPZ are Brooks High School, Moulton Recreation Center, West Limestone High School, Elkmont High School, East Limestone High School, Ardmore High School, Hartselle Junior High School, and Priceville School. The preferred reception center for each ERPA is listed in Table 1-2. (Some ERPAs may evacuate differently, depending upon the prevailing wind direction.)

The roadway network used to develop evacuation time estimates includes the major roadways recommended to the public as evacuation routes from individual communities to designated reception centers. The roadway network is designed to utilize all available major roadways, with traffic flow directed radially outward from BFN toward the EPZ boundaries.

The roadway network is described in detail in Section 4.1.4 Overview of Changes from Previous ETE Study The changes in residential population within the EPZ are summarized in Table 1-1.The revised NRC guidance and newly acquired data led to a number of other changes in the ETE methodology and assumptions.

Table 1-3 provides a summary comparing the main features and assumptions of the current study to the 2008 ETE study. The telephone survey of EPZ residents provides a new basis for estimating vehicle occupancy and departure times, while new NRC guidance has specified different assumptions regarding background and "shadow" traffic. The ETE methodology and assumptions for the current study are discussed in greater detail in subsequent sections of this report.The increase in EPZ population, revised vehicle occupancy for residents (2.06 persons per vehicle, based on survey responses), revised departure times for schools and special facilities (no "early warning"), and revised departure time curves for residents (based on survey responses and estimated time for warning diffusion) are Brs Feny -ErE -VER4.doc 1-4 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates expected to have the greatest influence on estimated evacuation times. The "shadow evacuation" adds vehicle demand of 81,302 vehicles in the area immediately outside of the EPZ. One special event scenario was added. Each of these issues is discussed in more detail in subsequent sections of this report.Bros Ferry -ETE -VER4.doen 1-5 Cablo Cw-w Sot. F.-WO~i Uvdm Lit Pipja~w FOpOM Hi wgmw~~J 4..Hu~0-AhO hi-wvýý, CD (~j w5~b IS CONwiad law 4-MtHOOI dlb 5-Legend K Plant Location-EPZ Sectors S state Boundary Dal" spdmp (ýD (Y9 Okoloni 0 20 40 Mile.onw" Abod"m vwn Path: U %prqedaslTVA E ThE'Arc Fpg., I-I ati L I I S T 0 N I rww Legend LT ALT ..Plant Location E-5 EPZ Sectors County Boundary tLawrence

....... -2 County 0 2 4 FF 17rp#Wffl M/,s Pa, U *,q o TVAE rEAcMh6. UMkBo.F.ygF._1-4 ,d V.WO*CMkTVA-ETE"Xpm OF Lauderdale County 1.&.~Legend X Browns Ferry r) EPZ Sector z:i County Boundary 2010 Population m111 12 -25 26 -43 44- 68 69 -97 j98 -140-141 -214 215 -366-367 -554-555 -959 M Population of 0 t A R EPZ A-2 218 A-s 1,757 A-I0 8,857 B-2 216 B-S 646 B-10 6_166 C-10 4,149 D-10 13,017 f-5, _ 97 E-10-- 2,972 F-2 7 F-S5 -221 F-i1 3,036 G-2 77 G-5-- 183 G-10 671 4-10 126-10 52q 1-10 202 Lawrence County (0 2 4 PIOle K-10 2,63f TOTAL: 45,774 momtham4 A I,'2.N.V I 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-1 Permanent Resident Population in the Browns Ferry EPZ 0 to 2 miles A-2 BFN 232 218 -6.0 B-2 178 216 21.3 F-2 Wheeler Reservation 9 7 -22.2 G-2 Mallard Creek Campground 80 77 -3.8 2 to 5 miles A-5 Poplar Creek 1,700 1,757 3.4 B-5 Cow Ford RV Park 671 646 -3.7 E-5 United Launch Alliance 152 97 -36.2 F-5 288 221 -23.3 G-5 Mallard Creek-Tennessee River confluence 245 183 -25.3 5 to 10 miles A-10 Sportsmans Park 8,418 8,857 5.2 B-10 Tanner Head Start 6,180 6,166 -0.2 C-10 Ingalls Harbor, 3M, Pepsi-Cola 3,770 4,149 10.1 D-10 Parkway Medical Center 11,776 13,017 10.5 E-10 West Morgan elementary and high schools 3,076 2,972 -3.4 F-10 Town of Hillsboro, East Lawrence elementary, middle, and high schools 3,121 3,036 -2.7 G-10 736 671 -8.8 H-10 Spring Creek bridge 146 126 -13.7 1-10 Elk-Tennessee River confluence 518 520 0.4 J-10 Elk River boat ramp 258 202 -21.7 K-10 Elk River Lodge State Park, Bay Hill Marina 2,519 2,638 4.7 Browns Ferry EPZ Total 44,073 45,776 3.9 Sources: a) 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data (block level)Browns Feny -ETE -VER4.docx 1-9 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-2 Designated Reception Centers for Evacuation A-2, A-5, A-10, K-10 West Limestone High School B-2, B-5, B-10 East Limestone High School A-5, A-10 Elkmont High School B-5, B-10 Ardmore High School F-2, G-2, F-5, G-5, F-10, G-10, H-10 Moulton Recreation Center E-5, D-10, E-10 Hartselle Junior High School C-10 Priceville School 1-10, J-10 Brooks High School B s Fean -ETE -VER4.do 1-10 ARCADIS Table 1-3 ETE Comparison Permanent residents-Total population

-44,100 -45,776-Vehicle occupancy

-2.45 (one vehicle per -2.06 (persons per vehicle) household)

Transit dependent It was assumed that-Population estimate privately owned vehicles of -20 friends and/or relatives-Number of buses would be available.

One Number of ambulances vehicle would be made -No ambulances available to evacuate each household.

Transient facilities (Winter day/summer

-Estimated population

-22,600 weekday)-Vehicle demand -Not explicitly provided in -18,311/18,532 the report. Vehicle -16,050/16,138

-Adjust for double-count Occupancy Rates provided for different population types.-No adjustment Special facilities (Winter weekday)-Estimated population

-17,630 (includes schools -1,019 (schools and and daycare) daycare not included)-Number of buses, vans-Assumed enough -25 buses/vans resources available Schools (Winter weekday)-Student population

-11,576 (daycare included)

-11,197 (daycare-Number of buses -Assumed enough included)resources available

-152 buses/12 vans Background traffic None Average traffic by time of day Shadow evacuation None 20 percent of resident (assumed basis) population outside designated zones Special event(s) None AYSA Soccer (Jack Allen Soccer Complex)Scenarios

-Weekday, weeknight, -Weekday (winter, weekend summer)-Normal and adverse -Weeknight (winter, Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Bno$ Ferry -ETE -VER4.d 1 1 1-11 ARCADIS Table 1-3 ETE Comparison weather summer)-Weekend (winter, summer)-Adverse weather weekday only-Staged evacuation (weekday)Adverse weather Snow or rain. Some Snow for winter, rain for reduction in capacities and summer speeds.Evacuation model name and PTV Vision VISUM PTV Vision VISUM 11.5, version VISSIM 5.3 Departure times -Warning based on -Waming based on literature literature

-Residential based on -Residential based on survey survey-Transient based on -Transient based on survey survey-Specials notified with -Specials notified with public public Evacuation times Estimates for 100 percent Estimates provided for 90 and 100 percent Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 1-12 Brow-s Fery -ETrE -VER4.docx ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 2. Methodology and Assumptions

2.1 Sources

of Data and General Assumptions The following data sources were reviewed and assumptions made to develop the appropriate population and roadway databases used for the evacuation analysis: " Population estimates for permanent residents were developed from 2010 U.S.Census Bureau data." Population estimates for seasonal residents were developed from 2010 U.S.Census Bureau data on housing units. Census data identify the number of seasonal housing units (vacant housing units for "seasonal or occasional use") at different geographic levels (e.g., by township, census tract, block group, block). A conservative estimate of seasonal population was developed by assigning three persons and two vehicles per seasonal housing unit.* Population estimates for major employers were developed from the ESRI list and the facility list from the 2008 study report. ARCADIS conducted internet searches and obtained information from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), Alabama Emergency Management Agency, and counties to estimate facility employment and staffing levels for various scenarios.

Only facilities with potential staffing level of at least 50 persons per work shift were pursued.* Information relating to hotels, motels, and recreational facilities was obtained from tourism websites and the 2008 study report. For parks, visitation information was obtained from the counties.* Current population estimates for schools were obtained primarily from county emergency response agencies." Lists of hospitals, rest homes, and incarceration facilities were obtained from each county emergency management agency.* The staffing levels at BFN reflect estimated peak personnel on site and were provided by TVA.Brows Feny -ETE -VER4.donx2x 2-1 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates* Initial estimates of roadway characteristics were obtained from the NAVTEQ database.

Roadway geometric and operational data were compiled based on field surveys performed by ARCADIS in 2012.* Average traffic volumes by time of day for weekdays and weekends for designated evacuation routes were obtained from state and county transportation agencies.These data were used to assign background traffic volumes for the roadway network. It was assumed that access control would be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> following public notice to evacuate.* Preparation and mobilization times for the permanent resident population were developed based on the results of a telephone survey (Appendix E), combined with published time estimates for warning diffusion.

The survey provided estimates of the time to depart from home following notification, and commuting times for household members who would return from work before departing.

• Departure times for transient facilities were estimated assuming relatively prompt evacuation of most workplaces and recreational facilities after notification is received.

The distribution of departure times also reflects information gathered from the telephone survey of EPZ residents, as discussed in Section 3.* The ETEs represent the time required to evacuate the Browns Ferry EPZ and designated analysis areas and include the time required for initial notification.

• ETEs are presented for 90 percent and 100 percent of evacuating vehicles.

It is assumed that all persons within the EPZ area will evacuate.

For the 100 percent evacuation time, evacuation of the EPZ will be considered complete after all evacuating vehicles are outside of the EPZ or analysis area." The general public will evacuate using designated evacuation routes and will proceed to the reception centers listed in Table 1-2 after leaving the EPZ. When schools are in session, children attending school will be transported directly to designated host schools.* It is assumed that existing lane utilization will prevail during the course of the evacuation.

Traffic control signals will be overridden or converted to flashing mode, as necessary, to give preference to flow on all major outbound roadways.

It is also assumed that state and municipal personnel will restrict unauthorized access into the EPZ, consistent with existing traffic management plans.Browns Ferry -ETE -VER4.dO=2-2 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates The evacuation analysis cases are described in Section 2.3 and represent a range of conditions, in accordance with guidance presented in CR-7002. These cases have been chosen to provide information for an appropriate range of conditions (i.e., low, typical, and high population; fair and adverse weather) to guide the protective action decision-making process.Vehicle occupancy rates used for the various population categories are as follows:-Permanent residents:

2.06 persons per vehicle, based on telephone survey results-Major places of employment:

1 vehicle per employee-Motels: 1 vehicle (1 to 2 persons) per occupied room-Recreational areas: 1 vehicle (3 persons) per campsite;

1.5 persons

per vehicle at shopping malls, visitor centers and museums-Schools: 55 students and 3 staff per bus; 1 vehicle per additional staff person-Hospitals/nursing homes/correctional facilities:

2 persons per ambulance/medical van for non-ambulatory patients and 20 persons per bus or van for ambulatory residents The transport-dependent population will be evacuated by bus or ambulance through efforts coordinated by state and municipal emergency preparedness officials.

• Adverse weather refers to moderate to heavy rainstorms for summer conditions, and a moderate snowstorm for winter conditions.

2.2 Summary

of Methodology for Traffic Simulation The ETEs developed for the Browns Ferry EPZ are based upon a time distribution of evacuation events as opposed to a summation of sequential events. This methodology assumes that the various time components in an evacuation (e.g., the time associated with preparation, mobilization) overlaps and occurs within certain time ranges. The time distribution approach is based upon assumptions consistent with the NRC guidance of CR-7002.Trip generation times are used to develop vehicle loading curves for different population types within the permanent, transient, and special facility populations.

A trip generation time consists of two main components:

warning diffusion time and mobilization time. Warning diffusion time is the time it takes for people to receive an emergency notification.

The type of warning systems employed in the EPZ, such as an emergency alert system (EAS), sirens, and tone alert radios (TARs), affects the Browns Ferry -ETE 3 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates distribution of warning times. Availability of more warning systems leads to faster warning diffusion to the public.Mobilization time is the time between the receipt of notification and when individuals leave for evacuation.

Mobilization time depends on the type of population and activity.Warning diffusion time and mobilization time distributions are used to develop composite loading distribution or trip generation curves for different population segments.

Trip generation times for transit-dependent facilities, special facilities, and schools were developed separately from those for the general public.2.3 Conditions Modeled Pursuant to the guidance in CR-7002 and NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, ETEs have been prepared for a range of temporal, seasonal, and weather conditions.

Estimates have been prepared for weekday, weeknight, and weekend scenarios during winter and summer. All scenarios are simulated with fair weather conditions; weekday scenarios are also simulated assuming adverse weather. Fair weather refers to conditions where roadways are clear and dry and visibility is not impaired.

Adverse weather during summer periods is defined as a rainstorm condition where visibility is impaired and roadway capacities and speeds are reduced by 10 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Adverse weather during winter periods is defined as a snowstorm condition where roadway capacities and speeds are reduced by 15 percent and 35 percent, respectively.

The various population components that have been incorporated in the evacuation scenarios are summarized below.2.3.1 Weekday This situation represents a typical weekday period with the workforce at a full daytime level. During winter, schools are in session. Vehicle demand estimates for weekday scenarios reflect the following conditions:

• Most permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.

• Major work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels.B. Feny -ETE -VER4.doc 2-4 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates* BFN employment is at an estimated peak daytime level, representative of operation during outage conditions.

• Schools and daycares are at current enrollment.

• Hospitals and nursing homes are at current enrollment or typical occupancy.

• Motel facilities are occupied at peak (winter or summer) levels.* Recreational facilities are at winter or summer weekday levels.2.3.2 Weeknight This situation reflects a typical night period when most permanent residents are home and the workforce is at evening shift level. Assumptions of the population levels for this condition include the following:

• Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.

• Major work places are at typical evening levels.* BFN employment is at an estimated peak nighttime level.* Day schools and daycares are closed.* Hospitals and nursing homes are at current enrollment or typical occupancy, and staffing is at typical nighttime levels.* Motel facilities are occupied at (winter or summer) weekday levels." Recreational facilities are at typical (winter or summer) evening levels.2.3.3 Weekend The weekend scenario represents a daytime period when most residents are at home and major work places are at typical weekend levels. Assumptions of the population levels for this condition include the following:

Býows Fer" -ETE -VERA.doc2 2-5 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates* Residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.

• Major work places are at typical weekend levels.* Day schools and daycares are closed.* Hospitals and nursing homes are occupied and staffed at weekend levels.* Motel facilities are occupied at weekend (winter or summer) levels.* Recreational facilities are at (winter or summer) weekend levels.Browns Feny -ETE -VER4.docx 2-6 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 3. Population and Vehicle Demand Evaluation The development of vehicle demand estimates for the Browns Ferry EPZ consisted of two primary steps. The first step was the determination of the number and distribution of the population to be evacuated.

The second step was the determination of the appropriate number of vehicles for each of the population categories.

Federal guidance (CR-7002) indicates that three population categories should be considered:

permanent residents, transients, and persons in schools and special facilities (such as medical facilities/nursing homes and daycare facilities).

The methodology used to develop the total population and vehicle demand estimates within the Browns Ferry EPZ incorporates intrinsic double-counting.

For example, a portion of the identified employees and visitors to recreational areas are also permanent residents within the EPZ. In addition, school children are counted in the resident population, but are also counted in the special facility population.

While population and vehicle demand estimates incorporate some adjustments for double-counting, the estimates are considered to be conservative (i.e., they overestimate actual population and vehicle levels that may be in the area at any given time).Population and vehicle demand estimates for each of the population categories are summarized below.3.1 Permanent Residents Permanent residents are those persons identified by the census as having a permanent residence within the EPZ. The 2010 U.S. Census population data for census tracts, block groups, and blocks were used to determine the permanent resident population within the EPZ and within each municipality and ERPA. The allocation of the resident population to entry nodes on the roadway network was based on detailed census block maps.An estimated 45,776 persons reside permanently within the Browns Ferry EPZ.Table 3-1 presents the resident population and vehicle demand by ERPA.3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population Vehicle demand associated with the permanent resident population was estimated based on telephone survey responses (Appendix E). The estimated occupancy factor is 2.06 persons per vehicle, which corresponds to 1.39 vehicles per household.

Total vehicle demand for EPZ residents for winter scenarios is 22,222.Brows Ferry -ETE -VER4.docx 3-1 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates For the 2008 ETE study, evacuation times were determined for vehicle demand assumption of one vehicle per household, or 2.45 persons per vehicle, for permanent residents during a weekday.3.1.2 Transport-Dependent Permanent Population Emergency response plans specify that the transport-dependent population will receive transportation assistance.

The Limestone, Lawrence, Lauderdale, and Morgan County Radiological Emergency Response Plans include provisions for providing this assistance to a small number of identified individuals within the EPZ. NRC guidance (CR-7002) indicates that between 1.5 and 5 percent of residents may require transportation.

The number of transit-dependent residents identified within the Browns Ferry EPZ is 20 with 2 vans designated to assist these individuals evacuate.3.2 Seasonal Residents The seasonal population category addresses those who reside in the EPZ on a temporary basis, particularly during the summer period. The 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing reports the number of vacant households classified as "for seasonal or occasional use." Census data identified 645 such housing units in the Browns Ferry EPZ, including 335 in ERPA K-1 0. Population and vehicle demand were estimated assuming three residents and two vehicles per household.

3.3 Transient

Population The transient population segment includes persons in the workforce, hotels/motels, and recreational areas. Regional maps and mapping software were used to determine facility locations and assign entry nodes. Significant employers within the EPZ were identified using ESRI Business Analyst Online (BAO). BAO is a web-based analytical and mapping tool that facilitates location-specific queries about business and demographic data. Data available on BAO includes information on business location and number of employees.

ESRI extracts business data from a comprehensive list of businesses (more than 12 million U.S. businesses) licensed from Infogroup.

ARCADIS used BAO to search for all employers with 50 or more employees located within a 10-mile radius of BFN. CR-7002 recommends consideration of "large employers" with 50 or more employees on a single shift.The list from BAO was screened to eliminate businesses where workers do not remain on site (e.g., transportation and trucking companies, construction, real estate agents, B-on Fen" -ETE -VER4.don, 3-2 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates home health care). Employment at schools and special facilities (e.g., hospitals, nursing homes) is generally tracked as part of the special facilities database.

The reduced list was then reviewed to exclude facilities located outside the EPZ, and to determine the ERPA for those located in the EPZ. The new list of employers was compared to the list from the 2008 study and the information provided by the county Emergency Management Agencies.Telephone calls were made to selected large employers to verify employment numbers and to estimate staffing levels during weekday, weeknight, and weekend periods.Workforce numbers for BFN were provided by TVA and reflect the peak workforce during outage conditions.

Numbers of units and campsites for motels and recreational areas were obtained from the TripAdvisor website and state and county tourism websites.

Seasonal occupancy was estimated based on capacity figures (e.g., number of campsites) and a telephone survey of selected facilities.

County agencies also provided visitation numbers for parks and campgrounds.

For purposes of estimating the total number of vehicles associated with the transient population segment, an occupancy factor of 1.0 employee per vehicle was used for most work places. For the hotel/motel and recreational populations, 1.0 vehicle (1.5 persons) per hotel/motel unit was assumed. For parks and campgrounds, 1.0 vehicle (3 persons) per campsite was assumed. Daytime park visitation numbers were generally obtained as numbers of vehicles, and an occupancy factor of 1.5 persons per vehicle was assumed. Campgrounds were assumed to be fully occupied during summer. Motels were assumed to be fully occupied for all scenarios.

Vehicle demand for selected recreational facilities was reduced in consideration of double-counting.

These facilities include recreational clubs and other facilities that would be used predominantly by those residing within 10 to 20 miles. An adjustment factor of 0.75 was applied, assuming that (a) roughly half of visitors reside in the EPZ and (b) roughly half of EPZ residents would return home before evacuating.

Similar adjustments were made for shopping centers and large retail outlets.As a supplement to the BAO analysis, a database of employers maintained by the Census Bureau (Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, or LEHD) was also utilized to estimate the number of persons working within the EPZ. The total workforce in each ERPA, as indicated by LEHD, was compared to the total workforce estimated from facility-based data, including employers, schools and daycares, health care Bowns Feny -M -VER4.do=-3-3 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates institutions, retailers, and recreation facilities.

Transient population was added for ERPAs where LEHD numbers were significantly higher than facility-based numbers.The total LEHD adjustment for all scenarios was 8,479. Seventy-five percent of the LEHD adjustments were added to the weekday transient population, 15 percent to evening, and 10 percent to the weekend population.

The largest adjustments were made to ERPAs A-10 and B-10. The LEHD adjustments represent approximately 35 percent of the transient population for the winter weekday scenario.Table 3-2 presents a summary of the transient population by ERPA for each scenario.The transient population and associated vehicle demand are greatest for summer weekday and winter weekday scenarios.

Recreational facilities are located in ERPAs A-10, 1-10, J-10, and K-10, along the Elk River and in ERPAs G-2, B-5, F-5, C-10, and K-10, along Wheeler Lake. ERPA D-10 has the highest population and vehicle demand from transient facilities, reflecting a combination of employers, motels, and retail and recreational facilities.

Population data and vehicle demand estimates for the transient population segment, including the workforce, hotels and motels, and recreational areas, are presented by facility in Appendix B.3.4 Special Facilities Population The special facility population segment includes persons in schools, hospitals, nursing homes, and correctional facilities who will require transportation assistance during an evacuation.

Most school facilities are located in the ERPAs with large residential populations.

The special facilities population is summarized by ERPA in Table 3-3;data by facility is provided in Appendix B.3.4.1 Medical, Nursing Care, and Correctional Facilities The EPZ has one hospital, in Decatur, and two nursing home facilities.

Vehicle occupancy for nursing home patients is two non-ambulatory patients and one staff per ambulance, 20 residents or patients plus 3 staff per vehicle (bus or van) for ambulatory patients, plus 1 vehicle per staff person who does not evacuate with patients.3.4.2 Schools and Daycare Twenty elementary and secondary schools and 12 pre-school/daycare facilities have been identified within the Browns Ferry EPZ, with a total population of 11,197 students.None of the identified schools is residential; therefore, students are only present on Bm.ý,s Feny -ETE -VER4.d=cx 3-4 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates weekdays during the school year. Vehicle occupancy for public schools is based on 58 persons (55 students, 3 staff) per bus, plus 1 vehicle per additional school staff.The 12 licensed childcare (large daycare) facilities have an estimated daytime population of 1,198 students and staff. Those facilities were identified from an internet listing of licensed childcare establishments.

The population estimates represent the licensed capacity of each facility.

Smaller home-based daycare facilities (capacity 10 or less) were not tabulated; those facilities contribute little vehicle demand beyond that assigned to EPZ residents.

3.5 Emergency

Response Planning Area Population Totals Population and vehicle demand totals for each ERPA are summarized in Table 3-4.The totals listed in the table represent the peak number of people to be evacuated for each analysis case discussed in Section 6 of this report.Vehicle demand is highest for the winter weekday scenario.

Vehicle demand for the highest scenario is 34 percent higher than the lowest (winter weeknight) scenario.ERPA D-10, near Decatur, has the largest population and vehicle demand for all scenarios.

The vehicle demand listed in Tables 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4 reflects the data used as input for the ETE traffic simulations.

Brows Fe" -ETE -VER4,doc=3-5 ARCADIS Table 3-1 Resident Population and Vehicle Demand by EPZ Subarea Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates A-2 B-2 F-2 G-2 0 to 2 miles 0 to 2 miles 0 to 2 miles 0 to 2 miles 218 216 7 77 106 105 3 37 296 220 7 104 155 108 3 54 A-5 2 to 5 miles 1,757 853 1,851 911 B-5 2 to 5 miles 646 314 646 314 E-5 2 to 5 miles 97 47 99 48 F-5 2 to 5 miles 221 107 221 107 G-5 2 to 5 miles 183 89 185 90 A-10 5 to 10 miles 8,857 4300 8,895 4324 B-10 5 to 10 miles 6,166 2993 6,184 3004 C-10 5 to 10 miles 4,149 2014 4,151 2015 D-10 5 to 10 miles 13,017 6319 13,064 6348 E-10 5 to 10 miles 2,972 1443 2,985 1451 F-10 5 to 10 miles 3,036 1474 3,054 1485 G-10 5 to 10 miles 671 326 675 329 H-10 5 to 10 miles 126 61 128 62 1-10 5 to 10 miles 520 252 740 388 J-10 5 to 10 miles 202 98 325 174 K-10 5 to 10 miles 2,638 1281 3,388 1747 EPZ total 45,776 22,222 47,218 23,117 BRo,,S Feffy -ErE -VER4.doc3 3-6 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-2 Transient Population and Vehicle Demand within the Browns Ferry EPZ A-2 B-2 F-2 G-2 A-5 B-5 E-5 F-5 G-5 A-10 B-10 C-10 D-10 E-10 F-10 G-10 H-10 1-10 J-10 K-10 978 0 0 220 0 144 1,718 0 0 1,689 2,918 4,676 4,839 619 0 0 0 80 130 300 231 0 0 100 0 144 230 0 0 333 875 536 3,947 114 0 0 0 0 0 186 63 0 0 220 0 144 187 0 0 260 421 1,018 3,881 76 0 0 0 80 130 300 978 0 0 441 0 144 1,718 0 0 1,689 2,918 4,676 4,839 619 0 0 0 80 130 300 231 0 0 200 0 144 230 0 0 333 875 536 3,947 114 0 0 0 0 0 186 63 0 0 441 0 144 187 0 0 260 421 1,018 3,881 76 0 0 0 80 130 300 978 0 0 88 0 72 1,718 0 0 1,669 2,918 4,331 3,402 619 0 0 0 40 65 150 Z1-I 0 0 40 0 72 230 0 0 333 875 516 2,185 114 0 0 0 0 0 87 63 0 0 88 0 72 187 0 0 240 421 673 2,119 76 0 0 0 40 65 150 0 0 176 0 72 1,718 0 0 1,669 2,918 4,331 3,402 619 0 0 0 40 65 150 Z.11-0 0 80 0 72 230 0 0 333 875 516 2,185 114 0 0 0 0 0 87 05 0 0 176 0 72 187 0 0 240 421 673 2,119 76 0 0 0 40 65 150 EPZ total 18,311 (6,696 1 6,780 18,532 6,796 7,001 16,050 4,683 4,194 116,138 1 4,723 4,282 Brca,,s Feny -ETE -VER4.dcx3 3-7 ARCADIS Table 3-3 Population and Vehicle Demand for Schools and Special Facilities in the Browns Ferry EPZ Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates A-2 B-2 F-2 G-2 A-5 B-5 E-5 F-5 G-5 A-1 0 B-I 0 C-1 0 D-I 0 E-I 0 F-I 0 G-1 0 H-10 1-10 J-10 K-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,095 1,853 906 3,858 1,566 1,743 0 0 0 0 1,195 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 145 418 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 145 418 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 472 119 214 1,100 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 145 418 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 145 418 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 298 98 1,236 303 168 0 0 0 0 303 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 18 183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 18 183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 131 9 43 425 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 18 183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 0 18 183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EPZtotal 12,216 763 763 1, 9 7 7 763 763 2,612 243 243 614 243 243 Brows Feny -ETE -VER4.doc3 3-8 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-4 Summary of Population and Vehicle Demand within the Browns Ferry EPZ A-2 B-2 F-2 G-2 A-5 B-5 E-5 F-5 G-5 A-10 B-10 C-10 D-10 E-10 F-10 G-10 H-10 1-10 J-10 K-10 1,196 216 7 297 1,757 790 1,815 221 183 11,641 10,937 9,731 21,714 5,157 4,779 671 126 600 332 4,133 449 216 7 177 1,757 790 327 221 183 9,390 7,041 4,830 17,382 3,086 3,036 671 126 520 202 2,824 281 216 7 297 1,757 790 284 221 183 9,317 6,587 5,312 17,316 3,048 3,036 671 126 600 332 2,938 1,274 220 7 545 1,851 790 1,817 221 185 11,056 9,221 9,041 19,003 3,676 3,054 675 128 820 455 3,688 527 220 7 304 1,851 790 329 221 185 9,428 7,059 4,832 17,429 3,099 3,054 675 128 740 325 3,574 359 220 7 545 1,851 790 286 221 185 9,355 6,605 5,314 17,363 3,061 3,054 675 128 820 455 3,688 1,074 95 3 122 773 357 1,761 97 81 5,773 5,929 6,255 10,366 2,230 1,504 296 55 268 154 1,614 337 105 3 77 853 386 277 107 89 4,675 3,868 2,548 8,687 1,557 1,474 326 61 252 98 1,368 169 105 3 125 853 386 234 107 89 4,582 3,414 2,705 8,621 1,519 1,474 326 61 292 163 1,431 1,123 98 3 227 831 357 1,762 97 82 5,722 5,651 6,201 9,584 1,941 1,347 299 56 404 230 1,777 386 108 3 134 911 386 278 107 90 4,699 3,879 2,549 8,716 1,565 1,485 329 62 388 174 1,834 218 108 3 230 911 386 235 107 90 4,606 3,425 2,706 8,650 1,527 1,485 329 62 428 239 1,897 EPZ total 76,303 53,235 J 53,319 1 67,727 54,777 54,982 38,807 27,148 26,659 37,792 J 28,083 1 27,642 Population numbers reflect some double-counting between categories (e.g., residents, workforce, schools).Browns Fery -ETE -VER4.docx 3-9 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 4. Evacuation Roadway Network 4.1 Network Definition An evaluation of the roadway network likely to be used by departing vehicles was undertaken to estimate evacuation times for the Browns Ferry EPZ. ARCADIS relied on several sources of information to define the evacuation roadway network: " Evacuation routes described in the existing county emergency response plans and public information calendars" Maps of highways and local roadways for the EPZ area* A field survey of the roadways in the Browns Ferry EPZ The primary evacuation routings used in the modeling are shown on Figure 4-1.4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions The evacuation routings were developed to simulate travel out of the EPZ using available roadways.

The network relies primarily on the evacuation routings depicted in the public information brochure.

Descriptions of the primary evacuation routes for different geographic areas within the EPZ are outlined in Table 4-1.4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network Roadway characteristics, such as roadway class, number of lanes, lane and shoulder width, speed limit, lane configuration near intersections, and traffic control, are key factors in determining how fast an evacuation can be completed.

These roadway attributes control roadway capacity, which in turn governs operating traffic conditions measured in terms of level of service (LOS). LOS is measured from A to F for roadway segments and intersections.

LOS A represents free-flow conditions, and LOS F represents force or breakdown flow conditions.

ARCADIS used NAVTEQTM roadway data with detailed information, including local streets, to build the evacuation roadway network for the study. NAVTEQ data were imported into geographic information system (GIS) software (ESRI ArcGISTM) for conducting field surveys to verify evacuation roadway segment attributes.

The information provided in the public outreach calendar for the site was used to highlight browns "eny -ete -ver4.doc-4-1 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates evacuation routes in GIS. ARCADIS has developed an integrated GIS-global positioning system tool that allows field personnel to record observations in an efficient and effective manner. The evacuation network, including traffic controls, was verified to a 15-mile radius from the plant, and along designated routes to the reception centers.After the NAVTEQ data were verified through the field survey, the evacuation roadway network was transferred to the traffic simulation software VISUM for modeling different evacuation scenarios.

Having accurate traffic control information is important to accurately estimate evacuation times because intersections have the potential to create bottleneck points.During an evacuation scenario, intersections might be manually controlled by officials, operated with existing traffic signal timing plans, or adjusted according to changing vehicular demand. In general, the emergency response plans for Browns Ferry call for signal override (i.e., signals set to flashing to give priority to outbound travel on designated evacuation routes). Traffic control information is coded as part of the evacuation network database.Background and pass-through traffic in the EPZ could account for a significant number of vehicles and could influence evacuation depending on the direction of travel. As recommended in CR-7002, average daily traffic (ADT) volumes, representative of typical background levels, were obtained from state and county transportation agencies.

During simulations, background traffic will be included during the initial 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the evacuation scenario, up to the time when access control is established to prevent vehicles from entering the EPZ.A map of the evacuation network showing node numbers and links, as recommended by the latest guidance, is provided in Appendix D. Detailed attributes of each roadway segment, such as link number, number of lanes, speed limit, length, and roadway type, are also tabulated in Appendix D.r feni -ete -v04.doc4 4-2 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 4-1 Browns Ferry EPZ Primary Evacuation Routes Out of EPZ A-Z k(imesione County)rroceeo norm ano TOiiOW me tvacuation Koute signs to me iieception L;enter at West Limestone High School.B-2 (Limestone Proceed east and follow the Evacuation Route signs to the Reception Center at County) East Limestone High School.A-5 (Limestone Proceed north and follow the Evacuation Route signs to the Reception Center at A-5o etoe West Limestone High School or proceed northeast to the Reception Center at County) Elkmont High School.B-5 (Limestone Proceed east and follow the Evacuation Route signs to the Reception Center at B-ou etoe East Limestone High School or proceed northeast to the Reception Center at County) Ardmore High School.A- 10 (Limestone Proceed north and follow the Evacuation Route signs to the Reception Center at A-ou etoe West Limestone High School or proceed northeast to the Reception Center at County) Elkmont High School.B-10 (Limestone Proceed east and follow the Evacuation Route signs to the Reception Center at B-o0 etoe East Limestone High School or proceed northeast to the Reception Center at County) Ardmore High School.K-10 (Limestone Proceed north and follow the Evacuation Route signs to the Reception Center at County) West Limestone High School.Take shortest route to State Highway 20 (Alternate U.S. 72). Go west on State F-2, F-5 Highway 20 to County Road 217 to State Highway 24. Go west on State (Lawrence Highway 24 to State Highway 157, south on State Highway 157 to Court Street, County) west on Court Street. Follow instructions of traffic control personnel to the Moulton Recreation Center.Travel south to State Highway 20. Go west on State Highway 20 to County G-2 (Lawrence Road 217, south on County Road 217 to State Highway 24, west on State County) Highway 24 to State Highway 157. Go south on State Highway 157 to Court Street. Turn west on Court Street to the Moulton Recreation Center.Take the most direct route to County Road 400, then proceed east on County G-5 (Lawrence Road 400 to State Highway 20. Go west on State Highway 20 to County Road Cou-ty) (217, south on County Road 217 to State Highway 24, west on State Highway 24 County) to State Highway 157, where you will be directed to the Moulton Recreation Center.F-1 0 (Lawrence Travel south to State Highway 24. Go west on State Highway 24 to State County) Highway 157. Turn south on State Highway 157. Follow instructions of traffic control personnel to the Moulton Recreation Center.G-10 (Lawrence Travel to State Highway 20. Go west on State Highway 20 to State Highway 33, County) then south on State Highway 33 to the Moulton Recreation Center.Proceed west to County Road 400, then south on County Road 400 to County H-10 (Lawrence Road 389. Go south on County Road 389 to State Highway 20, east on State County) Highway 20 to State Highway 33, south on State Highway 33 to the Moulton Recreation Center.Travel south on Finley Island Road or east on State Highway 20 to Woodall E-5 (Morgan Road, then south to Modaus Road. Go east on Modaus Road to State Highway County) 67, east on State Highway 67 to U.S. Highway 31, south on U.S. 31 to Hartselle Junior High School.browns ferry -ere -ver4.doc4 4-3 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates inway zu or Z4 to u.b. HMgnway j1. (uo soutn on ihway 67, then east on Highway 67 to Priceville School.D-10 (Morgan County)Take shortest route to either Danville Road or Old Moulton Road to State Highway 67. Go east on State Highway 67 to U.S. Highway 31, south on U.S.Highway 31 to Hartselle Junior High School.Travel east on State Highway 24 to Woodall Road, south on Woodall Road to E-10 (Morgan Modaus Road, then east to State Highway 67. Go east on State Highway 67 to County) U.S. Highway 31, then south on U.S. Highway 31 to Hartselle Junior High School.1-10 (Lauderdale Take County Road 91, County Road 70, and County Road 77 to U.S. Highway County) 72. Proceed west to Brooks High School in Killen.J-10 (Lauderdale Take County Road 70 to U.S. Highway 72 West to Brooks High School in Killen.County)4-4 Sfey -tee -vem4,do4-ndam~AMkoh CMS oA Legend C Plant Location A Reception Centers Controlled Evacuation Route'10 Mile EPZ W EPZ Sectors0 5 10 me-m ...... m Males ftl L A W R E N GD Pad, U ~ Uip~aePJ4ETEXO~~dU TE -ps~ký- ,_4-1 -r~Ui"J-XIVAýFTEVk" ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 5. Evacuation Time Estimate Methodology

5.1 Evacuation

Analysis Cases Time estimates have been prepared for a general evacuation scenario for each of these analysis cases:* Winter Weekday, Fair Weather, and Adverse Weather Conditions" Winter Weeknight, Fair Weather Conditions

• Winter Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions

• Summer Weekday, Fair Weather, and Adverse Weather Conditions

• Summer Weeknight, Fair Weather Conditions

• Summer Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions Areas for evacuation are selected based on the "keyhole" configuration (0 to 2-mile zone plus 2 to 5 miles or 0 to 5 miles plus 5- to 10-mile downwind zone). The partial-EPZ evacuation areas for BFN are reproduced in Table 5-1, based on the Protective Action Response (PAR) chart. Separate simulations may not be necessary for each of the areas listed in Table 5-1. ETEs will generally be controlled by whether one or two critical ERPAs (e.g., ERPAs A-10 and B-10) are included.

Enough cases will be run to confirm that representative ETEs are obtained for all potential scenarios.

For partial-EPZ evacuation cases, "shadow" vehicle demand (20 percent of residents) is assigned to all ERPAs that are not included in the evacuation region, in addition to the region outside of the EPZ.browsfr -eta -ve&4.doc-5-1 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 5-1 Potential Evacuation Areas for Browns Ferry EPZ 2-mile ring A-2,B-2,F-2,G-2 5-mile ring A-2,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 Full EPZ All ERPAs 2-mile radius and 5 miles downwind NNW-N A-2,B-2,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2 NNE-ENE A-2,B-2,F-2,F-5,G-2, G-5 E-ESE A-2,B-2,F-2,G-2,G-5 SE A-2,A-5,B-2,F-2,G-2,G-5 SSE-S A-2,A-5,B-2,F-2,G-2 SSW-WSW A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,F-2,G-2 W A-2,B-2,B-5,F-2,G-2 WNW-NW A-2,B-2,B-5, E-5,F-2,G-2 5-mile radius and 10 miles downwind NNW-N A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,C-10,D-10,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,F-10,G-2,G-5 NNE A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,F-10,G-2,G-5,G-10 NE-ENE A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,F-10,G-2,G-5,G-10, H-10 E A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,G-10,H-10 ESE-SE A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,H-10,1-10,J-10,K-10 SSE A-2,A-5,A-10,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,1-10,J-10,K-10 S A-2,A-5,A-10,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,K-10 SSW A-2,A-5,A-10,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,K-10 SW-WSW A-2,A-4,A-10,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 W A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 WNW A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,C-10,D-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 NW A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,C-10,D-10,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 broos fe"y -ete -ve4.doc2 5-2 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 5.2 Initial Notification The EPZ surrounding BFN has an outdoor siren notification system consistent with the requirements of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1/FEMA-REP-1 Appendix 3. This system will be used by state and local officials to alert the population to turn on their radios and television sets. Pursuant to NUREG 0654, Rev. 1 guidance, notification messages will commence on the designated EAS television and radio stations concurrent with sounding of the sirens and tone alert radios. Within 15 minutes of alert notification, essentially all of the population within the EPZ will begin to receive an informational or instructional message. If evacuation is deemed necessary, the timing of the order to evacuate and notification measures will be controlled by the state and local emergency preparedness officials.

Those officials may choose to alert and mobilize an emergency response workforce to control and expedite evacuation prior to the evacuation order.5.3 Transportation-Dependent Population The transportation-dependent population includes individuals without access to transportation, as well as those requiring special transportation assistance.

Transportation-dependent persons will be notified of a protective action recommendation in the same manner as the general public. If evacuation is recommended, persons needing transportation assistance will be informed through the EAS to contact the appropriate officials for assistance.

Evacuees who do not have access to transportation and confined persons who require special transportation assistance will be provided transportation by the appropriate agency.5.4 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate during the 15-minute initial notification period. Accordingly, in the model simulations, vehicles will begin to evacuate at 15 minutes following the initial notification.

After the initial 15-minute time period, vehicles are loaded at a linear rate over each 5-minute time interval, in accordance with the network loading distributions for each population type. For example, if 2 percent of 2,500 vehicles (50 vehicles) are to be loaded at a specific location over a 5-minute period, P1V Vision will load 10 vehicles per minute at that location during the specified interval.

Network loading distribution assumptions for the permanent population, transient population, and special facilities are based on the anticipated response of different population sectors to an evacuation order.Mobilization times for residents and workers reflect the data acquired by the telephone brons fery -ate -ve4.doc3 5-3 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates survey of EPZ residents, and are consistent with published data from actual historical events. Loading distributions are explained below and summarized on Figure 5-1.5.4.1 Permanent and Seasonal Population Permanent and seasonal residents with access to automobiles will take varying amounts of time to begin evacuating.

Some persons will leave as quickly as possible;most will take some time to prepare, pack valuables and clothes, and then depart;some will take added time to secure property before departing; and some may require transportation assistance.

In addition, actual departure and preparation times may vary according to the perceived severity of a particular evacuation order.Based on these factors, it was assumed that there would be a period of up to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> over which the permanent residents would begin to evacuate.

That is, permanent resident households would begin to evacuate between 15 and 180 minutes after the decision to notify the population to evacuate is made. Based on estimated warning diffusion and survey results from EPZ residents, during a weekday, 50 percent would depart within 60 minutes, 90 percent within 100 minutes, and 99 percent within 125 minutes. At night, 50 percent would depart within 65 minutes, 90 percent within 105 minutes, and 99 percent within 160 minutes. These time profiles are generally consistent with observed behavior during evacuations for chemical releases.5.4.2 Transient Population It was assumed that the workforce would be subject to the same warning diffusion as the general public. Based on estimated warning diffusion and survey results from EPZ residents, it was estimated that 50 percent of the workforce would evacuate within 35 minutes following the decision to evacuate, 90 percent within 60 minutes, and 99 percent within 110 minutes. For a few facilities, it may be necessary for a limited number of workers to remain on the job in order to safely shut down processes, secure the facility, or maintain essential operations.

The evacuation time estimates do not address those workers who remain behind, because there is no reliable basis for predicting whether or how soon they will evacuate.

The assumption that all workers evacuate provides a conservative estimate of vehicle demand. Discussions with emergency preparedness officials indicate that the same time distribution is also reasonable for the other transient population categories within the EPZ, including motels and recreation areas.browns "erry -ete -ver4.doc5 5-4 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 5.4.3 Special Facilities It was assumed that special facilities (i.e., schools, nursing homes) within the EPZ would also receive initial notification promptly.

Based on data obtained from previous studies, vehicle departure times were developed that reflect a distribution of notification, preparation, and mobilization times.Consistent with the current off-site emergency response plans, it was assumed that schools will be evacuated via bus to the designated host schools. For school facilities, it was assumed that up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> may be required to assemble buses, transport vehicles to schools, and load students onto buses. Vehicles stationed at the facilities at the time of the ordered evacuation could be loaded in as little as 15 minutes following notification.

Accordingly, 50 percent of school buses depart onto the evacuation network during the period between 15 and 75 minutes, 90 percent by 135 minutes, and 99 percent by 165 minutes. The school profile was also applied for daycare facilities.

Evacuation of nursing home facilities would also require additional time associated with preparation and transport of vehicles to the respective facilities.

Based on previous studies, it was assumed that these facilities would begin to evacuate between 30 minutes and 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> following notification.

The first 50 percent will depart within 90 minutes, 90 percent within 150 minutes, and 99 percent within 180 minutes.bowvs fe" -ete -ve4.docd-5-5 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Departure Times -Browns Ferry EPZ a0.8 0 0.0~ 0. resdentnigh-resident day-worker-,-,-schools

,-,--special

,,,,--transit depend 0 50 100 Time (minutes)150 200 Figure 5-1 Departure Time Distributions for the Browns Ferry EPZ 5.5 Evacuation Simulation Traffic simulation provides the ability to analyze evacuation of an area in great detail. In most traffic simulation models, there are two main inputs: supply (roadway) network data and demand (population and vehicular) data. Traffic models use different types of algorithms to predict traffic flow and provide measures of effectiveness (MOEs), such as average travel times, total number of vehicles exiting the system, and queue lengths at various times and points.5.5.1 General Structure ARCADIS used PTV Vision to perform evacuation modeling for different scenarios.

The PTV Vision traffic simulation software package includes VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation) and VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation).

VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling, and network data management.

VISSIM is capable of performing detailed microscopic simulation of traffic, public transport, and pedestrian simulations, and can model any type of traffic control and geometric configuration.

Both VISUM and VISSIM are capable of performing multimodal analysis, including car, commercial vehicle, bus, brow ferry -ete --er4.do-5 5-6 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates train, motorcycles, bicycles, and pedestrians.

The two programs work together seamlessly, saving valuable time and resources." Verified Evacuation Network" O-D Matnces*Traffic Demand Volumes II I*Trmvel Times-Queue Lenr s-Bottlenecks Figure 5-2 Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Using PTV Vision Suite VISUM was used to develop the evacuation network and population entry nodes (centroids).

One of the key features of VISUM is its ability to interact seamlessly with GIS data, such as the ESRI ArcGIS database.

The field-verified evacuation network data and demand data developed in ArcGIS were imported directly into VISUM. Origin-Destination trip tables were developed for the evacuation and imported into VISUM.VISUM software was then used to route the origin-destination information on the network using a dynamic equilibrium algorithm.

This algorithm ensured that traffic levels on the network were realistic given the capacities available on individual links.Once an initial solution was found in VISUM, the information was exported into VISSIM for microsimulation.

A microsimulation was deemed a necessary step in order to obtain detailed and realistic results on queuing and average travel times. VISSIM can model an intersection with different types of traffic control, such as yield signs, stop signs, and signals. VISSIM also provides a better understating of critical and congested parts of the network.5.5.2 Simulation Process The ETE results include the time to evacuate 90 percent and 100 percent of the total permanent and transient population.

Based on the current guidance, ETEs for special facilities, schools, and the transit-dependent population are developed separately; only time to evacuate 100 percent of these population groups was needed.fety-e -ve4,docx-5-7 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Consistent with current guidance, vehicle demand for each scenario was based on 100 percent of the population residing in areas designated for evacuation, plus 20 percent of the population residing in ERPAs outside the designated evacuation area, and 20 percent of the population residing outside of the EPZ, out to a distance of 15 miles. Vehicle demand outside of the designated evacuation area is intended to account for the impact of "shadow evacuees." A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of different input parameters and assumptions, such as changes in lane closures, vehicular demand, and evacuation routes.The simulation process can be summarized as follows: VISUM 1. Create every scenario based on: a. Background traffic b. Time of day c. Day of week d. Weather condition e. Season f Wind direction g. Shadow traffic 2. Run Dynamic Traffic Assignment to calculate permanent and transient, shadow, special need/school volumes.3. Assignment process will last until suitable convergence is reached. VISUM provides output on the goodness of convergence after assignment.

The convergence fit is not as critical because this is an evacuation model of a no-notice event; therefore, full user equilibrium cannot be expected.4. Export to VlSSlM.btOwM" f"ry -M -v&4.do 5-8 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates VISSIM 1. Warm-up time built into background/pass-through traffic generation.

2. Check for any local calibration parameters.

3. Run the final multimodal Dynamic Traffic Assignment in VISSIM to consider queues and intersection delays.4. Sensitivity analysis and count evacuees at 2, 5, and 10 miles.5. Prepare ETE times.MOEs 1. 90 percent evacuation time (for all wind directions and scenarios, staged and normal evacuations).

a. This applies to evacuation of the public only.2. 100 percent evacuation time (for all wind directions and scenarios, stage, and normal evacuations).

3. Color-coded roadway map at various times (2, 4, 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />), which identifies where long queues exist, including LOS E and F conditions.

b-ow fe",y -ete -ve4.doc9 5-9 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6. Analysis of Evacuation Times 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary Preliminary ETEs for the general population in the Browns Ferry EPZ are summarized by scenario and distance in Table 6-1 (times for 90 percent and 100 percent of vehicles to depart, for 2-mile zones, all zones to 5 miles, and all zones to 10 miles).The pattern of evacuation times is consistent with the differences in vehicle demand and travel time for different scenarios.

The 2-mile zone involves the shortest travel distance and the fewest vehicles; 90 percent ETEs for the 2-mile zone range from 1:30 to 1:50, and 100% ETEs are 2:55 to 3:30. For all zones out to 5 miles, the 90% ETEs are 1:50 to 2:30, and the 100% ETEs are 3:25 to 4:05. For the full EPZ, the 90% ETEs are 2:40 to 3:50, while the 100%ETEs are 3:50 to 6:50. All of these times are indicative of moderate delays related to traffic congestion.

During normal weather conditions, the final 10 percent of vehicles clear the 2-mile and 5-mile zones approximately 90 minutes after the initial 90 percent clear. When the full EPZ evacuates, the last 10 percent will take approximately 130 minutes longer to evacuate.

This difference is due to two major centers of population located in between the 5- and 10-mile zones: Decatur and Athens. Adverse weather adds up to 70 minutes for the summer weekday ETEs, and up to 90 minutes for the winter weekday ETEs.6.2 Comparison with Previous Study Population differences between the current ETE study and the 2008 study resulted in a slightly decreased vehicle demand for the full EPZ. A drop in transient residents was noted between the studies (18,532 vs. 22,586). The previous study used Synergos to estimate a "generic" transient population and vehicle demand. The current study uses facility-specific estimates, supplemented by data from LEHD. In addition, the current study makes adjustments to minimize double counting.The new 100% ETE time is 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 10 minutes compared to the 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> estimated in the 2008 study. This difference can be attributed to both the difference in transient population and departure time differences.

The previous report assumed up to 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes for workers which is almost 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> longer than the departure curve used in the current study (Figure 5-1). In addition, the simulation procedure of the previous 6-1 o %ny -er -ve4.doc ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates study called for modeling stop-controlled intersections instead of signalized which may have lead to longer delays and an extended ETE. The longer ETE could also be attributed to the previous model's strict adherence to evacuation routes. Although the official evacuation routes were generally the most heavily traveled, the current study model contained a much broader roadway network and, therefore, more routes were made available to evacuees.6.3 Keyhole Evacuation Scenarios ETEs for scenarios that reflect the current range of Protective Action Response (PAR)scenarios to evacuate the near-field population and selected downwind zones are summarized in Table 6-2 for 5-mile PAR scenarios and Table 6-3 for 10-mile PAR scenarios.

All of the 5-mile zone and 10-mile downwind PAR scenarios have varied ETEs in a range of 10 to 30 minutes. In general, the results reflect the strong influence of zones with larger populations, such as ERPAs A-1 0, B-1 0, D-1 0, and E-1 0.However, in some cases, longer ETEs are the result of longer travel times to the ETE boundary.

The scenario for wind direction W, for example, shows a similar evacuation time as the more heavily populated WNW and NW scenarios, but it is because residents in ERPA B-10 must travel a greater distance on U.S. 31 before exiting the EPZ in Athens. The WNW wind direction keyhole scenario for winter daytime has the longest ETE of any keyhole scenario.

This is due to a bottleneck effect of traffic converging in the Decatur area.6.4 Staged Evacuation Scenarios A series of staged evacuation scenarios were evaluated based on NRC guidance (CR-7002).

In a staged evacuation, the 2-mile zone evacuates first, while surrounding zones shelter in place; after the population has evacuated the 2-mile zone, the outer zones would be instructed to evacuate.

The "Stage 1" time is determined by simulating evacuation of the 2-mile zone for the Winter Weekday, Normal Weather scenario, with only background and shadow traffic in other parts of the EPZ. Once the Stage 1 time (1:30) was determined, a revised set of departure curves was developed for the outer (Stage 2) zones. The Stage 2 departure curves for Browns Ferry are shown on Figure 6-1. The departure curves are much steeper at the beginning of Stage 2 to account for the preparation time of evacuees sheltering in place during Stage 1. It was assumed that these evacuees will be ready to go at the beginning of Stage 2.bros "fery -ete -ver4.dcx 6-2 Va ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Results for staged evacuation scenarios are summarized in Table 6-4. All of the staged keyhole scenarios have the same ETEs (within 5 minutes), independent of wind direction.

These results are most likely due to the large population in the 2-mile zone and smaller populations in the 2- to 5-mile zones. Therefore, the clearance of the 2-mile zone effectively controls the overall ETE. The ETEs for the staged scenarios are greater than the ETEs for the "unstaged" scenarios.

This accounts for the fact that the outer 2- to 5-mile zones take slightly longer to clear under a staged evacuation due to their delayed start time.Stage 2 Departure Times -Browns Ferry EPZ 1'U0.8-resident day.2 0.6 -resident night o40.-worker~0.4 -schools-- -special=0.2 0. -transit depend 0 0 50 100 150 200 Time (minutes)Figure 6-1 Stage 2 Departure Time Distributions for the Browns Ferry EPZ bo-ns fte",- ete-ver4 do- 6 6-3 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Browns Ferry EPZ Affected ERPAs Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-2, B-2, F-2, G-2 2-mile zone 1:30 1:40 1:50 1:40 1:30 1:45 1:50 1:40 A-2, B-2, B-5, E-5, F-2, F-5, G-2, 5-mile zone 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:05 2:30 1:50 1:50 G-5 ALL 10-mile EPZ 3:05 3:25 2:40 2:50 3:15 3:50 2:35 2:45 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-2, B-2, F-2, G-2 2-mile zone 2:55 3:25 3:10 3:10 2:55 3:30 3:10 3:10 A-2, B-2, B-5, E-5, F-2, F-5, G-2, 5-mile zone 3:25 4:00 3:25 3:25 3:25 4:05 3:10 3:10 G-5 ALL 10-mile EPZ 5:10 6:20 4:25 5:00 5:20 6:50 3:50 4:40 6-4 bmown "ery -ete -ve-4.do-6 0 ARCADIS Table 6-2 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone Plus 5-Mile Downwind, Unstaged)Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Affected ERPAs Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 1 (8)Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-2,B-2,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2 NNW-N 1:55 2:05 1:40 1:40 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 A-2,B-2,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 NNE-ENE 1:55 2:05 1:40 1:40 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 A-2,B-2,F-2,G-2,G-5 E-ESE 1:55 2:05 1:40 1:40 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 A-2,A-5,B-2,F-2,G-2,G-5 SE 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:25 1:50 1:50 A-2,A-5,B-2,F-2,G-2 SSE-S 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:25 1:50 1:50 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,F-2,G-2 SSW-WSW 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:25 1:50 1:50 A-2,B-2,B-5,F-2,G-2 W 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:25 1:50 1:50 A-2,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,G-2 WNW-NW 1:55 2:05 1:40 1:40 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-2,B-2,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2 NNW-N 3:15 3:50 3:10 3:05 3:15 3:55 3:00 3:00 A-2,B-2,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 NNE-ENE 3:15 3:50 3:10 3:05 3:15 3:55 3:00 3:00 A-2,B-2,F-2,G-2,G-5 E-ESE 3:15 3:50 3:10 3:05 3:15 3:55 3:00 3:00 A-2,A-5,B-2,F-2,G-2,G-5 SE 3:25 4:00 3:25 3:15 3:25 4:05 3:10 3:10 A-2,A-5,B-2,F-2,G-2 SSE-S 3:25 4:00 3:25 3:15 3:25 4:05 3:10 3:10 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,F-2,G-2 SSW-WSW 3:25 4:00 3:25 3:15 3:25 4:05 3:10 3:10 A-2,B-2,B-5,F-2,G-2 W 3:25 4:00 3:25 3:15 3:25 4:05 3:10 3:10 A-2,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,G-2 WNW-NW 3:15 3:50 3:15 3:05 3:15 3:55 3:00 3:00 browns fer"y -ete -vw4.docx6 6-5 ARCADIS Table 6-3 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (5-Mile Zone Plus 10-Mile Downwind, Unstaged)Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates I Scenario:

I (1) 1 (2) I (3) I (4) 1 (5)I (6) I (7) I (8)Affected ERPAs I I I I I I I Weather: I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,C-10,D-10,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,F-NNW-N 2:55 3:15 2:35 2:50 3:00 3:35 2:25 2:30 1 0,G-2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,F-10,G-2,G-NNE 3:00 3:20 2:40 2:55 2:50 3:25 2:15 2:20 5,G-10 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2 F-5,F-10,G-2,G-5,G-10,H-1 0 NE-ENE 2:45 3:05 2:30 2:40 2:40 3:15 2:00 2:10 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-E 2:45 3:05 2:30 2:40 2:40 3:15 2:00 2:10 5,G-2,G-5,G-10,H-10 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,H-10,1-10,J-ESE-SE 2:55 3:15 2:35 2:50 3:00 3:35 2:25 2:30 10,K-10 A-2,A-5,A-1 0,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,1-10,J-SSE 2:55 3:15 2:35 2:50 3:00 3:35 2:25 2:30 10,K-10 A-2,A-5,A-10,B-2,B-5,E-S 2:55 3:15 2:35 2:50 3:00 3:35 2:25 2:30 5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,K-10 A-2,A-5,A-1 0,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,K-SSW 2:55 3:15 2:35 2:50 3:00 3:35 2:25 2:30 10 A-2,A-4,A-10,B-2,B-5,B-SW-WSW 2:40 3:00 2:20 2:35 2:40 3:15 2:05 2:10 10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-W 2:40 3:00 2:20 2:35 2:55 3:30 2:20 2:25 5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 I I.fe- y -Wee --ve4.docx 6-6 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Scenario: (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) I (6)(7)(8)Affected ERPAs t t t -+ + 4 Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,C-10,D-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-WNW 3:05 3:25 2:50 3:00 3:15 3:50 2:35 2:45 2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-1 0,C-10,D-10,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-NW 3:00 3:20 2:40 2:55 3:05 3:40 2:30 2:35 5,G-2,G-5 I__ _ I_ _ I_ _ I__III 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,C-l 0,D-10,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,F-NNW-N 4:00 5:10 3:15 3:50 4:35 6:05 3:05 3:55 10,G-2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-5,F-10,G-2,G-NNE 4:10 5:20 3:30 4:00 3:50 5:20 2:25 3:50 5,G-1 0 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-NE-ENE 3:50 5:00 3:10 3:40 3:50 5:20 2:25 3:50 5,F-1 0,G-2,G-5,G-1 0,H-1 0 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-E 3:50 5:00 3:10 3:40 3:50 5:20 2:25 3:50 5,G-2,G-5,G-10,H-10 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,H-10,1-10,J-ESE-SE 4:00 5:10 3:15 3:50 4:35 6:05 3:05 4:35 10,K-10 A-2,A-5,A-1 0,B-2,B-5,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,1-10,J-SSE 4:00 5:10 3:15 3:50 4:35 6:05 3:05 4:35 10,K-10 A-2,A-5,A-10,B-2,B-5,E-S 4:00 5:10 3:15 3:50 4:35 6:05 3:05 4:35 5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,K-1 0 b feny -ete -vew4doc6 6-7 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Scenario:

Itl Vz1 0~)(4)(0)V3)(1)VU'Affected ERPAs Weather: I Normal I Adverse Normal Normal I Normal I Adverse Normal Normal A-2,A-5,A-10,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5,K-SSW 4:00 5:10 3:15 3:50 4:35 6:05 3:05 4:35 10 A-2,A-4,A-10,B-2,B-5,B-SW-WSW 4:05 5:15 3:20 3:55 4:20 5:50 2:50 4:20 10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,E-W 4:20 5:30 3:35 4:10 4:20 5:50 2:50 4:20 5,F-2,F-5,G-2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-10,C-10,D-10,E-5,F-2,F-5,G-WNW 4:20 5:30 3:35 4:10 5:10 6:40 3:40 5:10 2,G-5 A-2,A-5,B-2,B-5,B-1 0,C-10,D-10,E-5,E-10,F-2,F-NW 4:20 5:30 3:35 4:10 4:35 6:05 3:10 4:35 5,G-2,G-5 I I I bcown s f"ny -eWe -ver4.do-6-8 C2 ARCADIS Table 6-4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Staged EPZ Scenarios (2-mile Zone, then 5-miles downwind)Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 2-mile Zone t Scenario:

1(1)1(2) (3) (4)1(5) (6) (7) (8)(A-2, B-2, F-2, G-2)then: Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

E-5, F-5 NNW-N 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 F-5, G-5 NNE-ENE 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 G-5 E-ESE 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 A-5, G-5 SE 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:10 2:10 A-5 SSE-S 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:10 2:10 A-5, B-5 SSW-WSW 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 B-5 W 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 B-5, E-5 WNW-NW 2:25 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

E-5, F-5 NNW-N 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 F-5, G-5 NNE-ENE 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 G-5 E-ESE 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 A-5, G-5 SE 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 A-5 SSE-S 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 A-5, B-5 SSW-WSW 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 B-5 W 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 B-5, E-5 WNW-NW 3:30 4:05 3:25 3:20 3:30 4:10 3:15 3:15 tx eM" ele -ve.4don.6-6-9 JA ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6.5 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 6.5.1 Population Growth NRC guidance (CR-7002) for updating ETE studies more frequently than the 10-year federal census includes criteria based on population growth. Specifically, if the residential population growth in the EPZ since the last ETE update is sufficient to cause an increase in the ETE by 25 percent or by 30 minutes, whichever is less, then a full ETE update study must be performed.

A sensitivity analysis was performed by determining the 90% ETEs for increases of 10, 15, and 20 percent of the EPZ residential population for the Winter Weekday, Normal Weather scenario.

This scenario produced the longest ETE by season or time of day. The population was increased in the same manner in the surrounding region, out to 15 miles. With a 20 percent increase in residential population above the 2010 U.S. Census values, the 90 percent ETE for the full EPZ increased to 3:20, an increase of 5 minutes. Because the EPZ residential population for Browns Ferry changed by less than 4 percent between 2000 and 2010, it appears unlikely that an increase of 20 percent will occur before 2020.The 100% ETEs increased more rapidly than the 90% ETEs, consistent with the general pattern of all ETE results. Results are illustrated on Figure 6-2. With a 20 percent increase in population, the 100% ETE for the full EPZ increased by 49 minutes, from 5:10 to 5:59. NRC guidance (CR-7002) indicates that emergency planning decisions should be based on the 90% ETEs. The recommended "update threshold" for the Browns Ferry EPZ, based on population growth, is 20 percent because this is considered a prudent threshold for an updated study.bIowfony"-efe-vew4.dc 6-10 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates BFN -Population Growth vs ETE (Full EPZ)6:00 5:55 5:50 5:45 5:40 5:35 5:30 5:25 5:20 5:15 5:05 y = 0.1583x + 0.2114 R 2 = 0.8534* 10mile-Upper-Linear (10mile)0% 5% 10%15%20%Population Increase %Figure 6-2 ETE Population Growth Sensitivity Analysis 6.5.2 Roadway Impact NRC guidance (CR-7002) also requires analysis of a "roadway impact" scenario.

For this scenario, a major evacuation route is removed or reduced in capacity.Specifically, one of the five highest volume roadways is removed from service. This scenario is specified as Summer Weekday, Normal Weather for the full EPZ. For Browns Ferry, the five highest volume roadways for this scenario are listed below: " AL 67 SB -4,852 vehicles" AL 24 WB -4,046 vehicles" U.S. 72 WB -3,596 vehicles* U.S. 31 NB -2,554 vehicles" AL 24 EB -2,288 vehicles 6-11 browvs fen, -ete -ve'4.do6 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates The route with the highest volume of vehicles, AL 67 (Beltline Highway in Decatur)was selected for the roadway impact. The roadway impact was modeled by completely blocking the route to traffic. The road closure caused some re-routing of evacuees compared to the Summer Day scenario with no lane closure. The impact location is shown on Figure 6-3. With the lane closure in place, the ETEs increased from 2:55 (90%) and 4:40 (100%) to 3:43 (90%) and 5:26 (100%). The increased ETEs are due to evacuees taking alternate routes to avoid the road closure. Figure 6-3 compares the traffic flows by link before and after the road closure.Figure 6-3 Comparison of Traffic Flows Before and After Road Closure Scenario 6.6 Performance Metrics for Simulation Model The performance of VISSIM is assessed using standard metrics, consistent with the guidance provided in CR-7002. Table 6-5 provides a summary of simulation parameters for Winter Day Normal Weather scenario for the full EPZ. Figure 6-4 illustrates the number of vehicles on the network over the course of the simulation, while Figure 6-5 compares the rate of vehicles loading onto the network to the frequency of departures.

The parameters in Table 6-5 include an average travel brows f"iy -ter --er4.do6 6-12 ARCADIS speed for evacuating vehicles of 18.6 miles per hour, which indicates that traffic is encountering significant congestion during much of the simulation.

The average travel time of 4.13 hours1.50463e-4 days <br />0.00361 hours <br />2.149471e-5 weeks <br />4.9465e-6 months <br /> reflects travel to the designated reception centers, rather than the travel time to exit the EPZ.Table 6-5 Summary of Network Performance (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Average Delay (s) 6142 2154 7640 Average Stop Delay (s) 2256 834 2790 Average # of Stops 743 245 930 Average Speed (mph) 20.7 31.9 18.6 Average Travel Time (hr) 3.49 1.91 4.13 Vehicle Hours Traveled 170,795 27,005 143,790 Vehicle Miles Traveled 3,532,304 862,771 2,669,533# of Completed Trips 48,904 14,103 38,807 Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates AL 67 SB 40.8 Danville Rd SB to AL 67 SB 38.9 AL 20 to US 31 SB 28.3 US 31 SB 26.7 US 31 NB 53.4 AL 2 EB to AL 251-US 31 NB 37.3 Lee Hwy (US 72) EB to 1-"5 NB 53.5 Lee Hwy (US 72) WB 53.3 AL 24 WB 62.3 Moulton St (AL 24) EB 44.0 Co Rd 434 to 460 WB 30.0 browns fe"y -ete -ver4.doc6 6-13 0 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Evacuation Vehicles by Hour Crossing EPZ Boundary Fair Weather, Winter Day, Full EPZ Scenario 18000 16000 0 14000.12000*. 10000 ,! 8000 0 2-mile 6000 15-mile E.E

• lO-mile= 4000 z E 2000 0 A 1 2 3 4 5 6 Simulation Hour 10-mile: 90% ETE = 3:15, 100% = 5:10 Figure 6-4 Time Distribution of Vehicles on the Network (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)6-14 b--~m "i -W~ -ve4.doc ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Mobilization and Cumulative EPZ Evacuation "6~0k C LU U, 0 I-35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-Evacuation 0%- Mobilization 0 100 200 300 Time after Evacuation Order Issued (min)400 Figure 6-5 Comparison of Vehicle Mobilization and Departure Rates (Total Vehicles 38,807)6.7 ETE for Transit-Dependent, Special Facilities, and Schools The ETE for transit-dependent members of the general public is estimated based on the assumption of a single set of van runs. A pre-existing set of individuals is maintained by the local county emergency response agencies.

In the event an evacuation of the full EPZ is called, van drivers will be dispatched to individual homes. The run is assumed to begin 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the evacuation notice, allowing time for evacuees to prepare. The time sequence would then proceed in the following steps:* 40 minutes for the bus to traverse up to 10 pickup points and load passengers (2:40)* 50 minutes to travel out to reception center, and 10 minutes to unload (3:40)b f,, -ete 15 Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Estimated evacuation times for special facilities, schools, and daycares located in the EPZ are summarized in Tables 6-6 and 6-7. These times are shorter than the 90 %and 100% ETEs for the general population.

Facility-specific estimates are based on a three-step time sequence:

(1) mobilization, (2) loading, and (3) travel out of the EPZ.For travel time, average speeds were estimated for the anticipated evacuation route, based on the traffic simulation for the Winter Day scenario.

The simplified stepwise methodology used to determine these estimates provides a typical evacuation time, rather than an upper bound 100 percent value.brnsfery -ete-ver4,docx6 6-16 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-6 ETE for Special Facilities, Browns Ferry EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Country Cottage 85 1/15 Van/Auto 90 30 3.5 40.8 5 125 Presbyterian Towers 150 50 Auto 90 30 1.5 40.8 5 125 Decatur Work Release Center 150 3/3/20 Van/Bus/Auto 90 30 2.5 28.3 5 125 Morgan County System of Services 35 15 Auto 60 15 1 28.3 5 80 Parkway Medical Center 200 100 Auto 90 30 1.5 40.8 5 125 Decatur Health & Rehab Center 75 20 Auto 90 30 2 40.8 5 125 Limestone Health Facility 260 12/90 Van/Auto 90 30 3 37.3 5 12 Decatur Gen West Behavioral 139 6/63 Van/Auto 90 30 2 40.8 5 125 browns fer"y -ete -ve.4,doc6 6-17 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-7 ETE for Schools and Daycares, Browns Ferry EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Athens Intermediate 300 40 Auto 120 60 3.5 53.5 5 185 Austin High 1543 700 Auto 120 60 3 40.8 5 185 Benjamin Davis Elementary 303 6/20 Bus/Auto 120 60 2 44 5 185 Birdie Thornton Center 74 10/13 Bus/Auto 90 30 3.5 53.5 5 125 Brookhill Elementary 270 5/25 Bus/Auto 90 30 2.5 53.5 5 125 Clements High 620 14/225 Bus/Auto 120 60 5.5 53.3 5 185 East Lawrence Elementary 530 8/52 Bus/Auto 120 60 1.5 30 5 185 East Lawrence High 1213 21/87 Bus/Auto 120 60 1.5 30 5 185 James L. Cowart Elementary 270 3/25 Bus/Auto 90 30 3 37.3 5 125 Julian Harris Elementary 488 12/25 Bus/Auto 120 60 3 40.8 5 185 Leon Sheffield Elementary 382 8/20 Bus/Auto 120 60 3 26.7 5 185 Limestone County Career/Tech Center 350 8/40 Bus/Auto 120 60 2.5 53.4 5 185 Tanner High 1010 16/170 Bus/Auto 120 60 6 53.4 5 185 West Morgan Middle/High 1476 11/285 Bus/Auto 120 60 3 62.3 5 185 Woodmeade Elementary 303 7/20 Bus/Auto 120 60 2.5 40.8 5 185 Blue Springs Elementary 575 14/50 Bus/Auto 120 60 7.5 53.3 10 190 West Decatur Elementary 292 7/18 Bus/Auto 90 30 3.5 38.9 5 125 Lindsay Lane Christian BusNan/Academy 115 1/1/15 Auto 90 30 1 53.5 5 125 browns fery -ete -vew4.dac6 6-18 Va ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Day Care Facilities Boys and Girls Club of Athens 128 2/8 Van/Auto 90 30 3 37.3 5 125 Tanner Head Start 67 6 Auto 90 30 6 53.4 5 125 Central Park Baptist Child Care 118 1/23 Van/Auto 90 30 2 40.8 5 125 Decatur Baptist Child Care 180 3/24 Van/Auto 90 30 1.5 40.8 5 125 Friendship Learning Center 137 1/25 Van/Auto 90 30 4 37.3 5 125 Kids R Us 60 1/5 Van/Auto 90 30 3 44 5 125 La Petite Academy 125 2/20 Bus/Auto 90 30 2 40.8 5 125 Lil' People Day School 90 1/6 Van/Auto 90 30 4 62.3 5 125 Noah's Ark Child Care 95 1/15 Van/Auto 90 30 2 40.8 5 125 Wesley Stay and Play 80 1/12 Van/Auto 90 30 2 40.8 5 125 Boys and Girls Club of Tanner 82 1/4 Van/Auto 90 30 6 53.4 5 125 Sterrs Daycare Center 36 6 Auto 60 15 3 28.3 5 80 b-s fer" -ete- ver4doc61 6-19 Browns Ferry Nuclear ARCADIS Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6.8 Special Event A special event was modeled for the AYCA Soccer Tournament held at the Jack Allen Complex in Decatur, Alabama. An additional 1,200 personal vehicles (3 persons per vehicle) and 30 buses were modeled. It was assumed that all the vehicles would park within walking distance of the soccer fields and that the departure rates would be similar to other transient visitors in the EPZ.The special event is held in ERPA D-1 0 of the EPZ, which is the ERPA with the highest vehicle demand and controls the ETE. When the additional vehicles were added to the Full EPZ, Summer Day (normal weather) scenario, the ETEs increased from 3:05 (90%) and 5:10 (100%) to 3:06 (90%) and 5:45 (100%). The large (35-minute) increase in the 100% evacuation time was an expected outcome due to higher vehicle demand in a congested part of the network.Sfen -eta -ver4.d=.62 6-20 ARCADIS Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 7. Traffic Control Recommendations

7.1 General

Evacuation simulation results have been reviewed to assess access control locations, traffic management locations, and recommendations for the Browns Ferry EPZ.Predicted queuing at high-volume intersections is summarized in Table 7-1. None of the intersections listed are located inside the EPZ. Significant queue lengths are predicted only at locations where traffic is approaching a reception center.7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations Access control measures were not specifically addressed in the conduct of this study. Background traffic within the EPZ was not found to be a significant contributor to traffic congestion during the early stages of evacuation.

7.3 Traffic

Management Locations and Tactics to Facilitate Evacuation The traffic simulation results for Browns Ferry indicate that traffic flow will not encounter significant congestion inside the EPZ, but will encounter delay on primary evacuation routes outside of the EPZ, especially in the cities of Decatur and Athens.The traffic flow maps provided in Appendix F and the data in Table 7-1 reveal locations where additional traffic management could be best deployed to achieve a reduction in ETEs.Table 7-1 Predicted Queuing at Major Intersections (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Beltline Rd (AL 67) at US 31 Decatur, AL Signalized 200 7,400 AL 67 at NB 1-65 ramp Priceville, AL Signalized

<20 5,554 Beltline Rd (AL 67) at Central Pkwy Decatur, AL Signalized 880 4,842 Danvill Rd at Vestavia Dr Decatur, AL Two-way stop 480 3,586 Lee Hwy (U.S. 72) at NB 1-65 ramp Athens, AL Signalized 220 3,352 U.S. 31 merge with 1-65 Athens, AL Yield <20 3,270 1-65 NB off-ramp at AL 53 Ardmore, AL Two-way stop 840 3,170 N Jefferson St (AL 127) at Upper Fort Hampton Rd Elkmont, AL Signalized 120 2,956 AL 53 at County Rd 71 Ardmore, AL Two-way stop 240 2,862 1-65 NB off-ramp at County Rd 100 Elkmont, AL Two-way stop <20 2,828 f,, y -eto- ver4.do=7-1