ML12356A133

Kld TR-515, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates and Completed Table B-1 Evacuation Time Estimates Review Criteria Checklist. Part 3 of 6

ML12356A133
Person / Time
Site:	Point Beach
Issue date:	10/31/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC, Point Beach
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Point Beach
References
KLD TR-515
Download: ML12356A133 (107)

Text

8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles. The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools and medical facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of "passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.

This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.

Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.

Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted

• They must travel to the bus depot

• They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the PBNP EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to host schools. As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency. Therefore, children are evacuated to these host schools. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population. This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required. It is assumed that children at day-care centers will also be transported to host facilities in accordance with the county emergency plans.

The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:

• Estimate demand for transit service

• Estimate time to perform all transit functions

• Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the reception centers Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:

• Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.

• Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.

In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:

Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren. For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren. The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates. However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.

It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.

[20 + Gx o10)] - 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 373 people. Therefore, a total of 13 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the PBNP EPZ:

n P = No. of HH x If(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) - i]} x AiCi i=0

Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C z Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 9,110 x [0.0161 x 1.13 + 0.2791 x (1.58 - 1) x 0.56 x 0.54 + 0.4719 x (2.34 - 2) x (0.56 x 0.54)2] = 9,110 x 0.0818 = 745 B = (0.5 x P) - 30 = 13 These calculations are explained as follows:

• All members (1.13 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (1.61%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share. The term 9,110 (number of households) x 0.0161 x 1.13, accounts for these people.

• The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (27.91%), who are at home, equal (1.58-1).

The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (9,110 x 0.2791 x 0.56 x 0.54), as 56% of EPZ households have a commuter, 54% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.

• The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (47.19%), who are at home, equal (2.34 - 2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 9,110 x 0.4719 x (0.56 x 0.54)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).

• Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.

• The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.

The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the counties (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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8.2 School Population - Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by the local county emergency management agencies. The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

0 No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.

• While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.

0 Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools.

0 Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.

No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.

It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated. In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the host schools for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these host schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.

8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. 181 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities. The current census for each facility were provided by the county emergency management agencies. This data includes the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at each facility.

The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip. Each bus or van can each accommodate 2 wheelchair bound people on average.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency. In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat "inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees. For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R02 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.

When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.

Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions. Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations. The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.

Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A- B-)C)

Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated. It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather - 100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.

Activity: Board Passengers (C-*D)

Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.

For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed, "v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

2v T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+--,

a Where B= Dwell time to service passengers. The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is:

P =T- = B+

a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

• B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec

• a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.

Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D-->E)

School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the EPZ county emergency management agencies and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the total vehicle capacities needed to evacuate schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, and homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5). These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate everyone in a single wave.

The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate - 90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time - in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate host school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary. Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations). Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows:

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Average Speed

_. n length of link i (mi)

SDelay on linkDelay~(m.)

i (min.) + length of link i (mi.)

onlhr.(mn) 60 min.

current speed on link i ( - h..

60 min.

X hr.

The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively. Wisconsin state law prohibits school buses from operating above the posted speed limit, which is, at most, 55 mph within the study area. Therefore, all speeds in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 were reduced to 55 mph (50 mph for rain - 10% decrease - and 45 mph for snow - 20% decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph (50 mph in rain and 45 mph in snow).

Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the host school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A--B-->C, C-4D, and D--E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 28 = 2:15 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes) for Two Rivers High School, with good weather). The evacuation time to the host school is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E--F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.

Evacuation of Transit-DependentPopulation The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization. As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), approximately 90 percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 90 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate. Subareas 5 and 10S have higher transit-dependent populations and require more buses than the other Subareas (Table 8-10). As such, multiple buses have been assigned to each of these subareas. The start of service on these routes is separated by 20 minute headways, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13.

The use of bus headways ensures that those people who take longer to mobilize will be picked Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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up. Mobilization times are 10 and 20 minutes longer in rain and snow, respectively, to account for slower travel speeds and reduced roadway capacity.

Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The public information and emergency plans do not identify pick-up locations for persons without access to a personal vehicle. The 6 bus routes (number 17 through 22) shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service the major routes through each subarea and to service population along major routes in each subarea. It is assumed that residents will walk to and flag buses along these routes, and that they can arrive at the stops within the 90 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).

As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. A longer pickup time of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the GIS Software. Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for Route 17 is computed as 90 + 6 + 30 = 2:10 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for good weather. Here, 6 minutes is the time to travel 5.1 miles at 53.7 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 90 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

Activity: Travel to Reception Centers (E->F)

The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population. Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity: Passengers Leave Bus (F->G)

A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.

Activity: Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G->C)

The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.

The second-wave ETE for Route 20 is computed as follows for good weather:

• Bus arrives at reception center at 2:11 in good weather (2:10 to exit EPZ + 1 minute travel time to reception center).

• Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.

• Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 1 minute (equal to travel time to reception center) + 7 minutes (6.3 miles @ 54.6 mph) + 8 minutes (6.3 miles @ 45 mph) = 17 minutes

• Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.

• Bus exits EPZ at time 2:11 + 0:15 + 0:01 + 0:16 + 0:30 = 3:10 after the ATE.

The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centers, if the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.

Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except:

• Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients. Wheelchair accessible vans can accommodate 2 patients, and ambulances can accommodate 2 patients.

• Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 7 bus runs, 55 wheelchair accessible vehicle runs and 5 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 144 buses and 29 vans as well and 30 ambulances. The vehicles available by the various transportation providers are equipped to carry both ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons. The exact capacities for each type of vehicle varied across the different fleets. Therefore, the total available capacity for each mobility class is also provided in Table 8-5. There exists a sufficient amount of transportation resources, from a capacity standpoint, to evacuate the ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden persons from within the EPZ in a single wave.

As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes during good weather (100 and 110 minutes for rain and snow, respectively). Specially trained medical Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (45 mph for rain and 40 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary. The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair buses/vans, and ambulances at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair accessible vans and ambulances are 30, 10 and 30 minutes, respectively. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for Aurora Medical Center with 11 ambulatory residents during good weather is:

ETE: 90 + 11x1 + 7 = 108 min. or 1:50 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.

It is assumed that medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.

8.5 Special Needs Population The county emergency management agencies have a combined registration for transit-dependent and homebound special needs persons. Based on data provided by the counties, there are an estimated 3 homebound special needs people within the Kewaunee County portion of the EPZ, and 13 people within the Manitowoc County portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate. There are 14 ambulatory, 2 wheelchair bound and no bedridden persons in the entire EPZ.

ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by weather condition. The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle. It is conservatively assumed that special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart. Bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.

For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 14 ambulatory households need to be serviced. While only 1 bus is needed from a capacity Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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perspective, if 3 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require, at most, only 5 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 3 buses are deployed, with at most 5 stops, to service a total of 14 HH.

2. The ETE is calculated as follows:

a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location: 90 minutes

b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes

c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations: 4 @ 9 minutes = 36 minutes

d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations: 4 @ 5 minutes = 20 minutes

e. Travel to EPZ boundary: 10 minutes (5 miles @ 29.6 mph).

ETE: 90 + 5 + 36 + 20 + 10 = 2:45 (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes) after the ATE.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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(Subsequent Wave)

Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--B Driver Mobilization B--C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C--D Passengers Board the Bus D-+E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-+F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F--G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C, Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates I 20,954 1.13 1.58 2.34 9,110 1.61% 27.91% 47.19% 56% 54% 745 50% 1o373 1.8% 1 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-2. School Population Demand Estimates 0.~~Bu Runs0 5 East Twin Lutheran School 4 1 5 Mishicot High School' S Mishicot Middle School1 881 15 1

S Schultz Elementary School 10S Children's House of Manitowoc 17 1 lOS Creative Kids Club 26 1 10S Creative Learning Child Enrichment Center 90 2 10S Good Shepherd Lutheran Church 21 1 10S Koenig Elementary School 242 4 loS L.B. Clarke Middle School 484 10 10S Magee Elementary School 400 6 10S St. John's Lutheran School 72 2 lOS St. Peter the Fisherman School 173 3 loS Tiny Tots Child Care Services 34 1 10S Tiny Treasures Christian Child 50 1 10S Two Rivers High School 545 11 4

Facility is part of an educational complex on a single site where data was reported in aggregate.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-3. School Reception Centers 1S Scho Children's House of Manitowoc Creative Kids Club Creative Learning Child Enrichment Center Good Shepherd Lutheran Church Koenig Elementary School L.B. Clarke Middle School Silver Lake College Magee Elementary School St. John's Lutheran School St. Peter the Fisherman School Tiny Tots Child Care Services Tiny Treasures Christian Child Two Rivers High School East Twin Lutheran School Mishicot High School Valders High School Mishicot Middle School Schultz Elementary School Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand 10S Aurora Medical Center Two Rivers 69 32 11 12 9 1 6 5 10S Hamilton Care Center Two Rivers 99 66 4 62 0 1 31 0 105 Harmony of Two Rivers Two Rivers 28 24 12 12 0 1 6 0 10S Northland Lodge Two Rivers 52 32 8 24 0 1 12 0 10S Parkway Home Two Rivers 8 6 6 0 0 1 0 0 10S TLC Homes Two Rivers 8 6 6 0 0 1 0 0 10S Wisteria Haus Residents Two Rivers 15 1 0 0 IVans and buses are mixed use and each can accommodate 2 wheelchair-bound persons on average.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Brandt Buses 40 0 0 1,620 15 0 Assist-To-Transport 7 4 0 112 29 0 Mishicot School District 13 5 0 936 20 0 Maritime Buses 9 0 0 304 36 0 Two Rivers Buses 23 0 0 1,260 30 0 Manitowoc Fire 0 0 11 0 0 22 Two Rivers FD 0 0 3 0 0 6 Mishicot Ambulance 0 0 2 0 0 4 Valders Ambulance 0 0 2 0 0 4 Kiel Ambulance 0 0 2 0 0 4 Viking Ambulance 0 0 2 0 0 4 Luxemburg-Casco School District 32 0 0 2,304 0 0 Dvorak Bus Service 20 0 0 1,340 6 0 Red Cross 0 14 0 0 42 0 East Shore Industry 0 6 0 0 11 0 Kewaunee Rescue 0 0 3 0 0 6 Luxemburg Rescue 0 0 3 0 0 6 Algoma Rescue 0 0 2 0 0 4 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions 1 East Twin Lutheran School 110, 109, 121, 540, 108, 139, 118 2 Koenig Elementary School 519, 520, 181, 188, 197, 196 3 L.B. Clarke Middle School 318, 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 525, 551 173, 317, 171, 170, 541, 176, 178, 182, 183, 180, 181, 188, 4 Magee Elementary School 197, 196 455, 452, 169, 195, 170, 541, 176, 178, 182, 183, 180, 181, 5 St. Peter the Fisherman School 188, 197, 196 455, 452, 169, 195, 170, 541, 176, 178, 182, 183, 180, 181, 6 Two Rivers High School 188, 197, 196 7 Mishicot High School 128, 110, 109, 121, 540, 108, 139, 118 8 Mishicot Middle School 128, 110, 109, 121, 540, 108, 139, 118 9 Schultz Elementary School 539, 110, 109, 121, 540, 108, 139, 118 10 Children's House of Manitowoc 197, 196, 161 11 Creative Learning Child Enrichment Center 318, 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 525, 551 12 Good Shepherd Lutheran Church 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 525, 551 176, 178, 172, 179, 186, 187, 578, 160, 524, 523, 526, 525, 13 Tiny Tots Child Care Services 551 455, 452, 169, 195, 170, 541, 176, 178, 172, 179, 186, 187, 14 Tiny Treasures Christian Child 578, 160, 524, 523, 526, 525, 551 15 St. John's Lutheran School 318, 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 525, 551 16 Creative Kids Club 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 525, 551 17 Transit Dependents, Subarea ION 29, 326, 327, 328 18 Transit Dependents, Subarea 1ONW 536, 33, 510, 34, 35, 36, 37 19 Transit Dependents, Subarea lOW 112, 113, 89, 90, 91, 73 20 Transit Dependents, Subarea 1OSW 126, 120, 119, 118, 105, 106 146, 449, 455, 452, 169, 195, 170, 541, 176, 178, 182, 184, 21 Transit Dependents, Subarea 105 190, 186, 187, 578, 160, 524 137, 129, 168, 146, 193, 145, 194, 144, 318, 143, 142, 140, 22 Transit Dependents, Subarea 5 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 511, 154 452, 169, 195, 170, 541, 176, 178, 182, 184, 190, 186, 187, 27 Hamilton Care Center 578, 160, 524, 523, 526, 511, 154, 513 28 Harmony of Two Rivers 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 511, 154, 513 452, 169, 195, 170, 541, 176, 178, 182, 184, 190, 186, 187, 29 Northland Lodge 578, 160, 524, 523, 526, 511, 154, 513 30 Parkway Home 190, 186, 187, 578, 160, 524, 523, 526, 511, 154, 513 31 TLC Homes 190, 186, 187, 578, 160, 524, 523, 526, 511, 154, 513 32 Wisteria Haus Residents 318, 143, 142, 140, 157, 158, 159, 523, 526, 511, 154, 513 33 Aurora Medical Center 197, 196, 161 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-7. School and Daycare Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-8. School and Daycare Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain Children's House ot Manitowoc 1UU  ! .b 45.U ts ts. / 14 Creative Kids Club 100 20 6.7 9.6 42 14.1 22 Creative Learning Child Enrichment Center 100 20 5.4 9.3 35 11.0 17 East Twin Lutheran School 100 20 6.2 43.1 9 17.1 26 Good Shepherd Lutheran Church 100 20 5.8 9.0 39 11.0 17 Koenig Elementary School 100 20 2.4 13.8 11 8.7 14 L.B. Clarke Middle School 100 20 6.2 9.5 40 8.9 14 Magee Elementary School 100 20 5.1 9.3 33 8.7 14 Mishicot High School 100 20 6.6 42.3 10 17.1 26 Mishicot Middle School 100 20 6.6 42.3 10 17.1 26 Schultz Elementary School 100 20 6.6 40.2 10 17.1 26 St. John's Lutheran School 100 20 5.6 9.5 36 8.9 14 St. Peter the Fisherman School 100 20 5.0 17.1 18 8.7 14 Tiny Tots Child Care Services 100 20 5.2 6.5 48 11.0 17 Tiny Treasures Christian Child 100 20 6.3 7.3 52 11.0 17 Two Rivers High School 100 20 5.2 17.1 19 Q"7 IA P.C.1 KLD Engineering,Rev.

Point Beach Plant Nuclear Plant Beach Nuclear 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-9. School and Daycare Evacuation Time Estimates - Snow Creative Learning Child Enrichment Center P.C.1 KLD Engineering,Rev.

Point Point Beach Plant Nuclear Plant Beach Nuclear 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 17 1 Transit Dependents, Subarea 1ON Travel along SR 42 N 5.1 18 1 Transit Dependents, Subarea 1ONW Travel on CR Ab W, then on CR Kb W 4.5 19 1 Transit Dependents, Subarea lOW Travel along SR 147 S 5.7 20 1 Transit Dependents, Subarea 1OSW Travel along CR Q S 6.3 21 7 Transit Dependents, Subarea 10S Travel along SR 42 S, then on SR 310 W 9.6 22 2 Transit Dependents, Subarea 5 Travel along SR 42 S, then on CR W W, then SR 310 W 14.5 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Snow Rev. 1 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Aurora Medical Wheelchair bound 90 5 12 10 5.6 7 1:50 Center Bedridden 90 15 9 30 5.6 10 2:10 Hamilton Care Ambulatory 90 1 4 4 7.2 15 150 Center Wheelchair bound 90 5 62 10 7.2 14 1:55 Harmony of Two Ambulatory 90 1 12 12 5.6 33 2:15 Rivers Wheelchair bound 90 5 12 10 5.6 35 2:15 Northland Lodge Ambulatory 90 1 8 8 6.9 14 155 Wheelchair bound 90 5 24 10 6.9 14 1:SS Parkway Home Ambulatory 90 1 6 6 5.5 9 1:45 TLC Homes Ambulatory 90 1 6 6 5.5 9 145 Wisteria Haus 1 20 Residents Ambulatory 90 1 15 15 6.1 34 2.20

. . . .. . . . .. . . . ... . . . . . 2: .

AveageETE 200 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain Aurora Medical Ambulatory 100 1 11 11 5.6 7 2:00 Center Wheelchair bound 1 100 1 5 1 121 10 1 5.6 1 7 1 200 Bedridden 100 15 9 30 5.6 7 2:20 Hamilton Care Ambulatory 100 1 4 4 7.2 47 2:3S Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 62 10 7.2 54 2:A5 Harmony of Two Ambulatory 100 1 12 12 5.6 38 2:30 Rivers Wheelchair bound 100 5 12 10 5.6 39 230 Ambulatory 100 1 8 8 6.9 45 2:35 Northland Lodge Wheelchair bound 100 5 24 10 6.9 45 2:35 Parkway Home Ambulatory 100 1 6 6 5.5 37 225 TLC Homes Ambulatory 100 1 6 6 5.5 37 2:25 Wisteria Haus Residents Ambulatory 100 1 15 15 6.1 40 2:35 MaximumETE 2:45 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Snow AmDuia1ory iiu I 11 11 Aurora Medical Center Wheelchair bound Bedridden

[ 110 110 5

15

[ 12 9

1 0 30 1

5.6 86 8

Hamilton Care Ambulatory 110 1 4 4 7.2 24 Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 62 10 7.2 33 Harmony of Two Ambulatory 110 1 12 12 5.6 38 Rivers Wheelchair bound 110 5 12 10 5.6 39 Ambulatory 110 1 8 8 6.9 29 Northland Lodge Wheelchair bound 110 5 24 10 6.9 29 Parkway Home Ambulatory 110 1 6 6 5.5 9 TLC Homes Ambulatory 110 1 6 6 5.5 9 Wisteria Haus Fnn, Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Point Beach Nuclear Plant 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:

" Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

• Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T. All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.

• A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.

The functions to be performed in the field are:

1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.

2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.

The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example:

• A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.

" The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.

The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.

The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process:

1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. The existing TCPs and ACPs and how they were applied in this study are discussed in Appendix G.

3. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-7). As discussed in Section 7.3, congestion within the EPZ is clear by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after the ATE. Based on the limited traffic congestion within the EPZ, no additional TCPs or ACPs are identified as a result of this study. The existing traffic management plans are adequate.

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The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies (if available) can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information. DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.

The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.

Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.

The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.

All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning TCPs.

Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss TCP staffing schedules and operations.

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10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a subarea being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.

• Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.

Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.

This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.

See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers or host facilities is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.

Figure 10-1 presents the general population reception centers and host schools for evacuees.

The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.

It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host school and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians. Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the designated reception center for each county. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to congregate care centers, if the counties do make the decision to relocate evacuees.

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Figure 10-1. General Population Receptions Centers and Host Schools Point Beach Nuclear Plant 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure 10-2. Evacuation Route Map Point Beach Nuclear Plant 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation. There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement. Surveillance can take several forms.

1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.

3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. It is the responsibility of the Counties to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.

Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:

" They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.

• Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.

Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

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12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate. The EPZ county radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation. Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate. It is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.

The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Table 5-9). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.

As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of subareas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent, if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.

If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize. This 2-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.

Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered. After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

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Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:

• No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.)= 9,200

" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20

• Allowable error margin, e: 0.05

• Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)

Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p = F+e = 0.25; q =1 -p = 0.75 A 2pq + e 3 n = e2 - 308 Finite population correction:

nN nF - - = 298 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 211.

Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume:

• Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds

" Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds

" Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec.

• Interval between calls: 20 sec.

Person Hours:

300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20] 7.6 3600 3600 Point Beach Nuclear Plant 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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13 RECOMMENDATIONS The following recommendations are offered:

1. Examination of the general population ETE in Section 7 shows that the ETE for 100 percent of the population is generally 1 to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> longer than for 90 percent of the population. Specifically, the additional time needed for the last 10 percent of the population to evacuate can be as much as double the time needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population. This non-linearity reflects the fact that these relatively few stragglers require significantly more time to mobilize (i.e. prepare for the evacuation trip) than their neighbors. This leads to two recommendations:

a. The public outreach (information) program should emphasize the need for evacuees to minimize the time needed to prepare to evacuate (secure the home, assemble needed clothes, medicines, etc.).

b. The decision makers should reference Table 7-1 which list the time needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population, when preparing recommended protective actions, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

2. Staged evacuation is not beneficial due to the low population within the 5 and 10-mile regions of the plant and the limited traffic congestion within these regions.

3. The results of the roadway impact scenario (Scenario 14) indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a southbound lane on SR 42/Memorial Dr, could significantly impact ETE (increases up to 45 and 25 minutes at the 9 0 th and 1001h percentile, respectively). State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming SR 42/Memorial Dr. All efforts should be made to remove any blockages along SR 42/Memorial Dr, particularly within the first 2 /2 hours of the evacuation.

4. Counties should implement procedures whereby schools are contacted prior to dispatch of buses from the depots to get an accurate count of students needing transportation and the number of buses required (See Section 8).

5. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) such as Dynamic Message Signs (DMS), Highway Advisory Radio (HAR), Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), etc. should be used to facilitate the evacuation process (See Section 9). The placement of additional signage should consider evacuation needs.

6. Counties/State should establish strategic locations to position tow trucks provided with gasoline containers in the event of a disabled vehicle during the evacuation process (see Section 11) and should encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

7. Counties/states should establish a system/procedure to confirm that the Advisory to Evacuate is being adhered to (see the approach suggested by KLD in Section 12). Should the approach recommended by KLD in Section 12 be used, consideration should be given to keep a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at all times.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms

A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms TermI Deiito Analysis Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.

Free Speed The average speed that a motorist would travel if there were no congestion or other adverse conditions (such as bad weather).

Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.

Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.

Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Prevailing Roadway and Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,

Traffic Conditions composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).

Service Rate Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).

Service Volume Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).

Signal Cycle Length The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.

The cycle length is expressed in seconds.

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I~3 TemDfnto Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.

Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds.

Traffic (Trip) Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.

Traffic Density The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).

Traffic (Trip) Distribution A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.

Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

Traffic Volume The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.

Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.

Trip Table or Origin- A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number Destination Matrix of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations. These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.

Turning Capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

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APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model

B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.

DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost".

Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these "best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.

For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways. The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip "cost", as discussed later.

The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.

The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.

Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements. DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.

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DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.

When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations. The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.

The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions. The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:

• It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several "efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.

" The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling". Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

• DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.

• Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as c0 = at, + fll + ys, ,

wherec, is the generalized cost for link a, and a,fi, and rare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions. The DYNEV simulation model Point Beach Nuclear Plant B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior. This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session). A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.

The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:

Sa = - 13In (p), 0 < p < I; f3 >0 d,

= do dn = Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 03= Scaling factor The value of d. = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.

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Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:

Under equilibrium conditions traffic arrangesitself in congested networks in such a way that no individualtrip-makercan reduce his path costs by switching routes.

The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium". It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful] condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,

commuters). Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.

Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.

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0 Start of next DTRAD Session I I Set To = Clock time.

Archive System State at To I

Define latest Link Turn Percentages I-B3 Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T1 (burn time)

Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T1 I

Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I

Retrieve System State at T; Apply new Link Turn Percents I

DTRAD converges?

DTRAD iteration I No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To toT 2 (DTA session duration)

Set Clock to T7.

Figure B-i. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Point Beach Nuclear Plant B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model

C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions. The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) such as those listed in Table C-1.

Model Features Include:

• Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.

" Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model.

• At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications: queued and moving vehicles. The number of vehicles in each classification is computed. Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified. The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation. There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.

" Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented. This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.

" The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement. If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.

• A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.

" A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN

• Calculates ETE statistics Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.

To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections: rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways. The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).

Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation. The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Meaur Vehicles Discharged Vehicles UntIppisT Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)

Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network KLD Engineering, P.c.

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Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK

" Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers

• Link lengths

• Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization

" Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)

• Destination (exit) nodes

" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link

• Node Coordinates (X,Y)

• Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)

GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES 0 On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific

• Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated

• Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)

• Stop and Yield signs

• Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)

• Route diversion specifications

" Turn restrictions

• Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, discharge headway

• Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)

" Duration of DTA sessions

" Duration of simulation "burn time"

• Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS

" Identify and Schedule of closed lanes

• Identify and Schedule of closed links Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships. Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf _* k _ kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity. In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k _*k, = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion. The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between k, and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.

The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax; T en, (3)v,Critical k~. - max density, kc =

45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9; (5) Jam density, kj. Then, vc = a , k, = kc -

(vf-vc) k2 Setting k=k-kc, then Q= RQmax _Qmax 2 for 0< ksk = 50. It can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 - 0.0056 k) RQmax for k, __k __kj, whereks = 50 andk = 1 7 5 .

C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems". Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

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Volume, vph Drop R

Density, vpm I

I I

• S I I I -A-4b. Uensitv. vpm kf k Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Distance I Qb OQ OM OE Qe O Down L

Mb Me Up 10Time El E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.

The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval. The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.

The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.

h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.

k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.

The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.

L The length of the link in feet.

The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a Lb 'Le time interval.

The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.

The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.

M Metering factor (Multiplier): 1.

The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb, Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval. These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.

The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.

The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval: vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of OQOM,'OE the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.

the link that The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on executes a particular turn movement, x.

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The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.

The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.

R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.

RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.

S. Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).

tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first tj seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.

TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.

v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.

VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.

W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.

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The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, LV, RO, Lc, E,M Compute = O, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE ; E=EI+E 2

1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, ko , the R- factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.

For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.

Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = ko, and E = Eo .

2. Calculate v (k) such that k < 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.

Calculate Cap = max (TI) (G/c) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduced 3600 due to metering SetR= 1.0if G/c <l orifk*ýkc; Set R= 0.9onlyif G/C1=l and k>kc Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb Lv

3. Calculate t 1 =TI--L If t1 -<0, settl=El=OE=O ; Else, E 1 =E -1 v T-,

4. Then E 2 =E-E ,  ; t 2 =TI-tl

5. If Qb > Cap, then OQ= Cap,OM = OE = 0 If tj > 0,then Qe = Qb + Mb + E1 - Cap Else Qe = Qb - Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)

6. Else (Qb < Cap)

OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap - OQ

7. If Mb _*RCap,then Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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8. If t 1 > 0, 0 M = Mb, OE = min RCap - Mb, t TI ")Ž> 0 Q' = El - OE If Q'e > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe= 0, Me = E2 End if Else (t, = 0)

OM ((v(TI)-Lb)

L-Lb ) Mb and OE = 0 Me=Mb-OM+E; Qe=0 End if

9. Else (Mb > RCap)

If tj > 0, then CM=RCap, Q'e=Mb-OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A

10. Else (t, = 0)

Md [v(TO)-Lb)

Md L-Lb ) Mb]

If Md > RCap, then Om= RCap Q'e = Md - OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me=Mb-OM+E and Qe=O End if End if End if End if

11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = ! [kb + 2 km + ke],

where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.

If Ikn - kn- I >E and n<N where N = max number of iterations, and Eis a convergence criterion, then Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-11 KID Engineering, P.C.

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12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kRn End if Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Qe + Me > (L-W) L, LN , then The'number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (LW).LN where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M 1 (+ _ 0, where M is the metering factor (over all movements).

This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.

Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb Y e shown, Qb

• Cap, with t, > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E1 > Cap. This queue length, V L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El - Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the tl t 1 queue within the TI. A portion of the entering I vehicles, E3 = E L, TT will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 , Qe and Me for the input values of L,TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe .

When t, > 0 and Qb - Cap:

Define: Le= Qe -*

LN From the sketch, L3 = v(Tl - t, - t 3 )= L - (Q'e + E3 ) Lv LN Substituting E3 = E yields: - vt 3 + L E L = L - v(TI - t,) - L'e. Recognizing that the first two terms on theT1right hand side T1 LN cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain:

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t3 Lv such that 0 _Ot 3 _<TI - tj IV - E @1i It ]- [ < OT t =N If the denominator, v - TLN] :5 0, set t3 = TI - t1

=E (1 TI Then, Qe=Q'e+Ei ' Me TI TI___

The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.

C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LN,.

C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.

The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.

With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Point Beach Nuclear Plant C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles: Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping). After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E; metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.

Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes. It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.

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Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3)

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C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.

Figure B-i depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions"; each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,

[To, T2 ], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.

As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T1

• T2 , which lies within the session duration, [To , T]. This "burn time", T1 - To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T2 . At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.

Additional details are presented in Appendix B.

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APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure

D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.

Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.

The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.

2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Employee data was obtained from local emergency management officials and from phone calls to major employers. Transient data were obtained from local emergency management agencies and from phone calls to transient attractions. Information concerning schools, medical and other types of special facilities within the EPZ was obtained from county and municipal sources.

Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to local emergency managers. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.

Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.

A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

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Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.

Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 6 subareas. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of subareas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.

Ste, 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.

Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:

" The results are satisfactory; or

" The input stream must be modified accordingly.

This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.

Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.

Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV IISystem is again executed.

Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.

Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.

Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Step 1 Create GIS Base Map S Step 2 Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Study Area I Step 3 Conduct Kickoff Meeting with Stakeholders I Step 4 Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area:I1 Step S Conduct Telephone Survey and Develop Trip Generation Characteristics 4F Step 6 ICreate and Calibrate Link-NodeSAnayi AayjsNet~wo~r~k

_ _ _ Step 7

.~ F Develop Evacuation Regions and Scenarios I

Step 8 Create and Debug DYNEV 11Input Stream Step 9

() - Execute OYNEV II1for prototype Evcainas Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Point Beach Nuclear Plant D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX E Special Facility Data

E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of January 2012, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the PBNP EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, day care centers, hospitals and other medical care facilities.

Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.

Employment data is included in the tables for major employers. Each table is grouped by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, day care center, recreational area, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I

Table E-1. Schools, Preschools and Daycares within the EPZ 5 5.8 WSW East Twin Lutheran School 325 Randolph Street Mishicot (920) 755-3857 4 2 5 5.6 WSW Mishicot High School1 660 Washington Street Mishicot (920) 755-2311 5 5.6 WSW Mishicot Middle School' 660 Washington Street Mishicot (920) 755-4633 5 5.5 SW Schultz Elementary School' 510 Woodlawn Dr Mishicot (920) 755-2391 881 88 10S 11.1 SSW Children's House of Manitowoc 4020 Memorial Drive Two Rivers (920) 793-2629 17 3 10S 8.2 SSW Creative Kids Club 3502 Glenwood Two Rivers (920) 794-1814 26 2 Creative Learning Child Enrichment 105 7.7 SSW Center 4404 Bellevue Place Two Rivers (920) 794-1814 90 20 loS 8.4 SSW Good Shepherd Lutheran Church 3234 Mishicot Road Two Rivers (920) 793-1716 21 5 10S 9.8 SSW Koenig Elementary School 1114 Lowell St Two Rivers (920) 793-4560 242 51 10S 7.6 SSW L.B. Clarke Middle School 4608 Bellevue Pi Two Rivers (920) 794-1614 484 68 10S 8.2 SSW Magee Elementary School 3502 Glenwood St Two Rivers (920) 793-1118 400 51 10S 8.0 SSW St. John's Lutheran School 3607 45th St Two Rivers (920) 794-7300 72 10 10S 8.2 S St. Peter the Fisherman School 1322 33rd Street Two Rivers (920) 794-7622 173 27 lOS 8.9 S Tiny Tots Child Care Services 2214 Washington Street Two Rivers N/A 34 7 10S 8.2 S Tiny Treasures Christian Child 1029 33rd Street Two Rivers (920) 794-8543 so 11 1OS 7.3 S Two Rivers High School 4519 Lincoln Avenue Two Rivers (920) 793-2291 545 76 Facility is part of an educational complex on a site where data was reported in aggregate.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ 10S 11.4 SSW Aurora Medical Center 5000 Memorial Dr Two Rivers (920) 794-5000 69 32 11 12 9 l0S 8.6 S Hamilton Care Center 1 Hamilton Drive Two Rivers (920) 793-2261 99 66 4 62 0 105 7.8 SSW Harmony of Two Rivers 4606 Mishicot Rd Two Rivers (920) 794-1950 28 24 12 12 0 105 8.6 S Northland Lodge 2500 Garfield St Two Rivers (920) 794-6922 52 32 8 24 0 105 9.7 S Parkway Home 1110 Victory Street Two Rivers (920) 793-4480 8 6 6 0 0 105 9.7 5 TLC Homes 2214 11th Street Two Rivers (920) 793-5919 8 6 6 0 0 S 7.7 SSW Wisteria Haus Residents 2741 45th Street Two Rivers (920) 794-7768 15 15 0 0 Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ Nextkra tnergy Foint 5 0.0 N/A Beach LLC 6610 Nuclear Road Two Rivers (920) 755-6557 50 15% 300 10S 11.4 SSW Aurora Medical Center 5000 Memorial Dr Two Rivers (920) 794-5000 305 29% 88 10S 7.1 5 Eggers Industries 1 Eggers Drive Two Rivers (920) 793-1351 114 29% 33 105 9.8 5 Formrite Companies 1816 10th Street Two Rivers (920) 793-1171 165 20% 12 Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table E-4. Parks/Recreational Attractions within the EPZ 5 6.6 WSW Fox Hills Resort & Country Club 300 Church Street Mishicot (920) 755-2365 120 50 5 4.9 SSE Point Beach State Forest 9400 County Road 0 Two Rivers (920) 794-7480 1,000 250 10S 8.0 S Emerald Hills Golf Course 3659 Riverview Drive Two Rivers (920) 794-8726 84 35 lOS 8.9 S Neshotah Park 500 Zlatnik Dr Two Rivers (920) 793-5591 1,054 458 10S 7.2 S Scheffel's Hideaway Campground 6511 County Road 0 Two Rivers (920) 657-1270 50 20 10S 9.5 S Seagull Marina, LLC 1400 Lake Street Two Rivers (920) 794-7533 58 38 Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table E-5. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ 5 6.5 WSW Fox Hills Resort 250 W Church St Mishicot (920) 755-2376 1,127 644 loS 8.4 S Cool City Motel 3009 Lincoln Avenue Two Rivers (920) 793-2244 42 21 loS 10.2 SSW Lakeview Motel 2702 Memorial Drive Two Rivers (920) 793-2251 24 12 10S 9.7 S Lighthouse Inn 1515 Memorial Drive Two Rivers (920) 793-4524 134 67 10S 8.7 S Red Forest Bed & Breakfast 1421 25th Street Two Rivers (920) 793-1794 8 4 10S 10.8 SSW Village Inn on the Lake 3310 Memorial Drive Two Rivers (920) 794-8818 36 Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-1. Schools, Preschools and Daycares within Subarea 5 Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-2. Schools, Pre-Schools and Daycares within Subarea 10S Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-4. Major Employers within the EPZ Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-5. Recreational Areas within the EPZ Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-6. Lodging within the EPZ Point Beach Nuclear Plant E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX F Telephone Survey

F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of the PBNP requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area.

Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.

These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")

Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.

Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. A sample size of approximately 500 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-4.5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population. Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software. This list is shown in Table F-I. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1. The survey was conducted in English, Spanish and Hmong account for the significant Spanish and Hmong speaking population within the EPZ.

The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.

Table F-1. PBNP Telephone Survey Sampling Plan 54208 944 371 17 54216 5805 2375 109 54217 322 110 5 54220 723 301 14 54227 321 128 6 54228 2669 1105 51 54241 14840 6381 294 54247 220 79 4 Total 25,844 10,850 500 Average Household Size: 2.38 Total Sample Required: 500 Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.

A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or "refused" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.

F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.30 people. The estimated household size (2.38 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication of the reliability of the survey.

Point Beach Household Size 60%

50%

U1

--40%

V1

= 30%

0 16 20%

10%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

Household Size Figure F-i. Household Size In the EPZ Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.01. It should be noted that approximately 1.6 percent of households do not have access to an automobile. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.

Point Beach Vehicle Availability 50%

40%

0 30% IA 0

" 20%

0 10%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-5 Person Households l1Person E2People *3People *4People *5People 100%

80%

0 jw- 60%

0 S40%

0 20%

0% ,A,. A .

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 5 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 6-9+ Person Households S6 People a7 People *8 People *9+ People 100%

80%

.R a, 60%

0 40%

0 20%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability - 6 to 9+ Person Households Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Ridesharing 89% of the households surveyed (who do not own a vehicle) responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when asked to evacuate in the event of an emergency. Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle - 10 total out of the sample size of 500 - answered this question. Thus, the results are not statistically significant. As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study. Figure F-5 presents this response.

Point Beach Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%

80%

0 0I 60%

o 40%

20%

0%

Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.

The data shows an average of 0.92 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 56% of households have at least one commuter.

Point Beach Commuters 50%

40%

.~30%

0 20%

0%

10%

1 2 3 4+

Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.04 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average -for carpools.

Point Beach Travel Mode to Work 100% *J.z~o 80%

60%

E E

40%

0 20%

0.0% 1.3% 4.0% 3.5%

0%

Rail Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)

Number of Commuters Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed:

"How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?"The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.22 vehicles.

• • Wouldyour family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?"

Of the survey participants who responded, 46 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 54 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members.

"Ifyou had a householdpet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?"As shown in Figure F-9, 50 percent of households do not have a family pet. Of the households with pets, 91 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Vehicles Used for Evacuation 100%

80%

60%

0 40%

0 z

"6 20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Number of Vehicles Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100%

80%

"0

-C 60%

0 x 40%

20%

0%

Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 80 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 20 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002. Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance.

"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 70 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 30 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.

F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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"How long does it take the commuter to complete preparationfor leaving work?" Figure F-10 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by about 75 minutes.

Eighty percent can leave within 20 minutes.

Time to Prepare to Leave Work 100%

80%

41~

E 60%

E o 40%

0 20%

0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Preparation Time (min)

Figure F-10. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School "How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-11 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 90 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 35 minutes of leaving work; all within 60 minutes.

Work to Home Travel 100%

80%

4-E 60%

0 40%

20%

0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Travel Time (min)

Figure F-11. Work to Home Travel Time Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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"How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?"

Figure F-12 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.

The distribution shown in Figure F-12 has a long "tail." About 88 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 60 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 75 minutes.

Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%

80%

0 G 60%

0

= 40%

0 20%

0% 6 0 6012 120 Preparation Time (min)

Figure F-12. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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"How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-13 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway. The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 81 percent of driveways are passable within 30 minutes. The last driveway is cleared two hours after the start of this activity. Note that those respondents (35%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity. Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.

Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%

80%

=0 60%

o 0

40%

0 20%

0%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Time (min)

Figure F-13. Time to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.

Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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ATIACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Telephone Survey Instrument Hello, my name is and I am working with COL. 1 Unused Manitowoc and Kewaunee County Emergency COL. 2 Unused Management on a survey to identify local behavior COL. 3 Unused during emergency situations. This information will be COL. 4 Unused used for emergency planning and will be shared with COL. 5 Unused local officials to enhance emergency response plans in Sex COL. 8 your area for all hazards; emergency planning for some 1 Male hazards may require evacuation. Your responses will greatly contribute to Manitowoc and Kewaunee Counties emergency preparedness. I will not ask for 2 Female your name and the survey shall take no more than 10 minutes to complete.

INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.

(Terminate call if not a residence.)

DO NOT ASK:

1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14

2. What is your home zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many running cars, or other running COL. 20 SKIP TO vehicles are usually available to the household? 1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO Q. 4 3 THREE Q.4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE Q. 4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q.4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the COL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

4. How many people usually live in this household? COL. 22 COL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN 7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

5. How many adults in the household commute to a COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q.6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.

6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)

Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6

7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 29 COL. 30 COL. 31 COL. 32 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56-1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN I HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN I HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND I HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND I HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND I 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN I HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY __ ) (SPECIFY __ .)

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW

/REFUSED /REFUSED Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 COL. 34 COL. 35 COL. 36 1 SMINUTESORLESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND I 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND I 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY __ .) (SPECIFY _ .)

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW

/REFUSED /REFUSED

8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL, 37 COL. 38 COL. 39 COL. 40 1 5 MINUTESOR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - I HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND I HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND I 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND I HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY__ ) (SPECIFY _ .)

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 Rev. 1 Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Time Estimate Rev. I

X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 COL. 42 COL. 43 COL. 44 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56-i1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND I HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 30 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 45 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY __ .) 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 DON'TKOW_/REF___S) 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW /REFUSED x DON'T KNOW /REFUSED x

9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES-I HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY__ )

Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS COL. 47 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 10 If there is 6-8" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I

much time, on average would it take you to clear the 6-8" of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)

COL. 48 COL. 49 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY_ )

15-30 MINUTES 2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES-I HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT

11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS): 1 A If you were at home and were asked to evacuate, 2 B A. Iwould await the return of household commuters to evacuate together.

B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.

12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)

X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED KLD Engineering, P.C.

Point Nuclear Plant Beach Nuclear Point Beach Plant F-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I

13A. Emergency officials advise you to COL. 52 take shelter at home in an 1 A emergency. Would you: (READ 2 B ANSWERS)

X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED A. SHELTER; or B. EVACUATE 13B. Emergency officials advise you to COL. 53 take shelter at home now in an 1 A emergency and possibly evacuate 2 B later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED (READ ANSWERS)

A. SHELTER; or B. EVACUATE

14. If you have a household pet, how many of them would you take with you if you were asked to evacuate the area? (READ ANSWERS)

COL. 54 0 WOULD NOT TAKE PET 1 WOULD TAKE ONE PET 2 WOULD TAKE TWO PETS 3 WOULD TAKE MORE THAN 2 PETS X DO NOT HAVE A PET Y DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much.

(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)

IF REQUESTED:

For additional information, contact your County Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.

County EMA Phone Kewaunee (920) 487-2940 Manitowoc (920) 683-4207 Point Beach Nuclear Plant F-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1