ML12338A390

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Official Exhibit - ENT000169-00-BD01 - the Impact of Stadium Announcements on Residential Property Values: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Dallas-Fort Worth
ML12338A390
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Site: Indian Point  Entergy icon.png
Issue date: 03/28/2012
From: Dehring C, Depken C, Ward M
Univ of Georgia, Univ of North Carolina - Charlotte, Univ of Texas - Arlington
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Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
References
RAS 22098, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01
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United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.

In the Matter of:

(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)

ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 ENT000169 Exhibit #: ENT000169-00-BD01 Identified: 10/15/2012 Admitted: 10/15/2012 Withdrawn: Submitted: March 28, 2012 Rejected: Stricken:

Other:

THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH CAROLYN A. DEHRING, CRAIG A. DEPKEN and MICHAEL R. WARD*

We investigate the impact of a potential new sports venue on residential property values, focusing on the National Football Leagues Dallas Cowboys search for a new host city in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. We "nd that residential property values in the city of Dallas increased following the announcement of a possible new stadium in the city. At the same time, property values fell throughout the rest of Dallas County, which would have paid for the proposed stadium. These patterns reversed when the Dallas stadium proposal was abandoned. Subsequently, a series of announcements regarding a new publicly subsidized stadium in nearby Arlington, Texas, reduced res-idential property values in Arlington. In aggregate, average property values declined approximately 1.5% relative to the surrounding area before stadium construction commenced. This decline was almost equal to the anticipated household sales tax burden, suggesting that the average expected amenity effect of hosting the Cowboys in Arlington was not signi"cantly different from zero. (JEL L83, R53, H73)

I. INTRODUCTION projects raise house prices in aggregate, while negative net bene"t projects lower house prices Public expenditures on a project, and the in aggregate. We measure the net bene"ts from requisite public taxation, may be economically the public consideration of a large discrete justi"ed if the bene"ts from the project outweigh project, a professional sports stadium funded the costs. Most public projects, such as parks, by a local sales tax increase.

roads, and police, have public good or external The public expenditure on sports stadiums bene"ts that are dif"cult to quantify, making has long been controversial, and there is an the evaluation of individual projects dif"cult.

Eventually, however, the net bene"ts of the extensive empirical literature investigating the impacts of new stadiums on local economies.

accumulated projects are represented in the cost The overwhelming majority of studies found of admission to the community in the form of housing prices or rents. Positive net bene"t either no net bene"ts or net bene"ts that are con-siderably smaller than the costs of either a new

  • This analysis was undertaken while Craig Depken stadium or hosting a professional sports fran-was a member of the Economics faculty at the University chise (see Siegfried and Zimbalist [2000] and of TexasArlington. The authors acknowledge helpful research assistance by Joshua Been of the University Rappaport and Wilkerson [2001] for thorough of TexasArlingtons Graphical Information Systems reviews). These empirical results contradict the Program and helpful comments from seminar partici- arguments proposed by advocates of stadium pants at the 2006 meetings of the Western Economic Association.

studies: that a new stadium will provide the cat-Dehring: Assistant Professor, Department of Insurance, alyst for an improvement in the communitys Legal Studies and Real Estate, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602. Phone (706) 542-3809 (of"ce), Fax (706) 542-4295, E-mail cdehring@terry.

uga.edu Depken: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, ABBREVIATIONS Belk College of Business, University of North Carolina- CPI: Consumer Price Index Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223. Phone (704) 687-7484, GLS: Generalized Least Squares Fax (704) 687-6442, E-mail cdepken@uncc.edu MLS: Multiple Listing Service Ward: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, 76019. NCAA: National Collegiate Athletic Association Phone (817) 272-3090 (of"ce), Fax (817) 272-3145, E-mail NFL: National Football League mikeward@uta.edu 627 Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1074-3529) doi:10.1111/j.1465-7287.2007.00077.x Vol. 25, No. 4, October 2007, 627-638 2007 Western Economic Association International

628 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY attributes. Nevertheless, new stadiums continue property values in Arlington fell. While the to be built with public funds.1 reduction in property values re"ects the combi-We contribute to a small but growing liter- nation of an expected localized amenity effect ature focusing on the impact of professional and an expected tax effect, we cannot reject sports venues on residential property values. the null hypothesis that the expected amenity Speci"cally, we investigate two sets of stadium effect was equal to zero before stadium con-announcements concerning the National Foot- struction commenced.2 ball Leagues (NFL) Dallas Cowboys search for a host city in the Dallas-Fort Worth II. A NEW DALLAS COWBOYS STADIUM: WHERE Metroplex. These announcements provide a AND WHEN?

quasi-natural experiment to test whether the announcement that a stadium might be built In April 2001, the Dallas Cowboys an-in a particular area has any immediate impact nounced that they were interested in obtaining on the sale prices of residential properties. a new publicly subsidized stadium to replace Because a stadium is costly to relocate, we treat the aging Texas Stadium. Built in 1972, Texas the announcements of potential stadium relo- Stadium lacks many of the modern revenue cation as changing the probability of a large generating aspects of new stadiums, particu-discrete event and test for accumulated and dif- larly modern luxury suites and a closed or ferential impacts of stadium announcements on retractable roof. During the spring and sum-contemporaneous residential property values. mer 2001, team owner Jerry Jones entertained We "nd that property values increased in the initial proposals from a number of cities in the city of Dallas after the announcement that the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, including cur-Cowboys might move from the city of Irving to rent home Irving, Grapevine, Arlington, Grand a new stadium in downtown Dallas, which Prairie, and Dallas. These preliminary discus-would have replaced the aging Cotton Bowl. sions were tabled after the September 11, 2001, However, in Dallas County, which would have attacks in New York City and did not come paid for the stadium with new taxes, residential back to public light until late 2003.

property values decreased after the announce- At that time, the Cowboys once again pub-ment of the Fair Park stadium proposal. Con- licly mentioned their desire for a new stadium sistent with these results, when the Fair Park and suggested that the stadium could be built stadium proposal was abandoned, properties in Irving, near Texas Stadium. The response in the city of Dallas declined in value, while to this proposal by the city of Irving was the property values in Dallas County re- not encouraging. Because of Irvings relatively bounded. In the end, the accumulated net effect small tax base (population of 130,000 in 2000) of the stadium announcements for both Dallas and its inability to raise the sales tax rate City and Dallas County was zero, consistent beyond the state-mandated cap, the city of with a return to the status quo ante. When Irving alone was unlikely to be able to "nance analyzing three announcements concerning its contribution to the anticipated $1 billion a potential new stadium in Arlington, we "nd project.3 This, in turn, caused the Cowboys that the accumulated impacts of the stadium to look beyond Irving for a new home.

announcements re"ected between 1.3 and 1.5 In the early months of 2004, a number of cit-percent reduction in residential property sales ies indicated their desire to contend for the new prices in Arlington, ceteris paribus. In other stadium, but it was equally apparent that these words, at each point in which it became more cities suffered the same problems as Irving certain that Arlington would contribute local too small of a tax base and/or little room under tax dollars to a new stadium for the Cowboys,

2. The Dallas Cowboys did not relocate to another metropolitan area, therefore any metro area-wide amenity
1. During the 1990s and through the early 2000s, cities effect was unaffected by the selected stadium site.

across the United States have engaged in what could be 3. The State of Texas has no state income tax. The termed a venue building spree. A little more than 50% state levies a 6.25% sales tax to fund the state government.

of the 122 teams in the four major professional leagues Cities are allowed to add up to an additional 2% sales tax in the United States have moved into a new or substan- to fund local government and special projects such as road tially renovated venue since 1990. In aggregate, these maintenance and stadiums. As of 2004, the city of Irving new venues cost an estimated $13.45 billion in current had a 1% sales tax for local government and a 1% sales tax

($16 billion in 2005 CPI adjusted) dollars. Public dollars to contribute to the Dallas Metro Transit system. There-have contributed $10.27 billion, or two-thirds, to the fore, the city of Irving had no room under the existing construction and maintenance of new sports venues. state-mandated sales tax cap of 8.25%.

DEHRING, DEPKEN & WARD: THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES 629 the state sales tax limit. In March 2004, it was On July 17, 2004, the mayor of Arlington suggested that Fair Park in downtown Dallas, announced that he had been in negotiations home of the 72-yr-old Cotton Bowl, could be with the team about the potential of building possible site for a new Cowboys stadium. a new stadium in Arlington. In many ways, The possibility that the Cotton Bowl would Arlington is also a good place to locate a be replaced by a new retractable roof stadium new stadium. Arlington is located between Fort generated considerable excitement in the Dallas Worth and Dallas, has access to multiple inter-community. A new stadium in Fair Park would states and highways, and the city already hosts move the Dallas Cowboys back to their origi- the Texas Rangers Major League Baseball club nal home town (rather than playing in a suburb and a Six Flags amusement park. Arlington is of Dallas) and would ensure both the annual also the third largest city in the Dallas-Fort University of Texas and the University of Worth Metroplex (after Fort Worth and Oklahoma football game and the annual Dallas), and its approximate $4 billion annual Cotton Bowl would remain in Dallas. More- economy and 360,000 people provide a suf"-

over, a new stadium would allow Dallas to ciently large tax base to subsidize a stadium.

contend to host any number of events, in- Arlington built the Rangers baseball stadium cluding a National Collegiate Athletic Associ- in 1994, following a public referendum in ation (NCAA) championship football game, 1991, and the city paid off the last of the base-a Super Bowl, or an NCAA Final Four. Fair ball stadium bonds in early 2001. Afterward, in Park also has the advantage of an existing accordance with state law, the city of Arlington infrastructure able to handle large events.4 reduced its local sales tax rate by the one-half of The Fair Park proposal called for the 1% that would have been dedicated to servicing County of Dallas to increase its sales tax rate the baseball stadium debt. Therefore, in early by one-half of 1% to pay for the stadium. A 2004, the city of Arlington was unique among countywide sales tax increase was proposed area cities in that it had a large tax base and to expand the tax base enough to cover the room under the state-mandated sales tax cap.6 anticipated construction costs. However, not- On August 17, 2004, the Arlington city withstanding the excitement generated by the council approved a ballot initiative to be stadium proposal, one considerable problem decided during the November 3, 2004, general became apparent. The city of Dallas was con- election. The ballot initiative was announced tractually obligated to retire the public debt it to include two elements. The "rst would ap-incurred to build the $410 million American prove up to $325 million in public money to Airlines Arena (home of the National Hockey contribute to land acquisition and construc-Leagues Dallas Stars and the National Bas- tion costs for a new retractable roof football ketball Associations Dallas Mavericks) before stadium for the Dallas Cowboys. The second spending any additional tax dollars on a new part authorized the city to increase the local professional sports venue of any kind. This sales tax by a half cent, increase local hotel contractual obligation removed the city of Dal- taxes by 2 percentage points, and increase las, but not the rest of Dallas County, from the Arlington-based car rental taxes by 5 percent-tax jurisdiction for a new football stadium.5 age points to "nance the citys contribution When it became clear that the city of Dallas to the stadium. The ballot initiative was ap-would not be contributing any tax proceeds proved by the voters of Arlington on Novem-toward a new stadium, the remaining Dallas ber 3, 2004, with 55% voting in favor and 45%

County population and city of"cials cooled voting against. The precise stadium location to the idea of building a new stadium in Fair was determined in early 2005, and in April Park. The Fair Park proposal was of"cially 2005, the city of Arlington began collecting abandoned in the public media on June 6, the additional taxes. The new stadium is sched-2004. Thereafter, the Dallas Cowboys publicly uled to open for the 2009 football season.

renewed their search for a new host city. During the stadium campaign, pro-stadium activists solicited an economic impact study

4. Fair Park is home of the annual Texas State Fair, and produced television, radio, mass mailings, the largest state fair in the United States. and newspaper advertising that touted the
5. The city of Dallas passed the referendum to build a new basketball/hockey arena in 1998 and does not antic-ipate retiring the debt for that stadium until well after 6. At the time the stadium proposal was announced, 2020. the prevailing local sales tax rate in Arlington was 7.5%.

630 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY economic impact "gures generated in their things. In their examination of monthly rents study. Ultimately, they out-spent antisubsidy in 60 metropolitan statistical areas in 1993 and activists $6 million to $43,000. The Cowboys 1999, Carlino and Coulson found rental pre-were large contributors to the pro-stadium pro- miums in both the central business district ponents, had players post yard signs, and the and the surrounding suburbs of cities that host famous team cheerleaders attended campaign NFL franchises.9 events to encourage passage.7 Proponents Tu (2005) examined the impact of FedEx predicted that the new stadium would bolster "eld, the home of the NFLs Washington Arlingtons entertainment-focused industry Redskins, on surrounding house prices pre-and that the two-stadium complex would be and post-stadium construction in Landover, an attractive area in which people would want Maryland. Tu compared prices within 3 miles to live. This, in turn, led some to claim that the of the FedEx "eld site across three time periods:

new stadium would not only contribute to the predevelopment, development, and postdevel-quality of life in the city of Arlington but also opment, where the development period starts cause an increase in property values. from when the Landover site was "rst revealed as a possible site of the stadium. Predevelop-III. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A NEW STADIUM ment, he found that properties closer to the pro-ON PROPERTY VALUES posed stadium site had lower value relative to those located further away from the proposed Land use externalities are costs or bene"ts site. However, this gradient became less pro-generated by land uses that "ow outside mar- nounced following the stadiums development, ket transactions. Because externalities have suggesting that a positive externality was gener-been shown to be capitalized into house prices, ated by the new stadium for properties located they provide the justi"cation for municipal closer to the stadium. Tu estimated an aggregate zoning. In the absence of zoning, the market increase in property values of approximately will over-allocate land to negative externality- $42 million generated by the new stadium.

producing lower uses. Externalities can in- In the case where a new stadium is funded "uence prices in two ways: scale effects and with a local sales tax, any capitalization in boundary effects. Scale effects relate to the local residential property prices identi"ed with absolute amount of the externality-producing the stadium project is the sum of three possible use, while boundary effects relate to the prox- effects: a negative tax effect, a (potentially) imity to the externality-producing use.8 positive incremental civic pride effect com-Two articles have investigated the impact of mon to the city residents from hosting the a professional sports franchise or sports venue team,10 and an ambiguous externality effect.11 on house prices. Carlino and Coulson (2004) Any positive externalities created by a stadium discussed the public good facet of professional could be discrete or related to proximity, such sports teams, what they term nonexcludable as income-earning opportunities, for example, bene"ciaries. The perceived bene"ts that selling parking space, or access to other ame-might accrue to those who will never attend nities such as nicer restaurants or hotels.

a game relate to an enhanced sense of civic Potential negative externalities would include pride, which should cause an increased will- diminished view, traf"c congestion, noise, loss ingness to pay for local housing, among other of privacy, and crime. Accordingly, the impact

7. This lobbying is consistent with Depken (2006) of a new stadium on house values is ambigu-who found that much of the public cost of a new profes- ous ex ante and is therefore a question to be sional baseball stadium is capitalized in the value of the resolved empirically.

franchise. Our analysis is closest to that by Tu, but we

8. There is a large literature investigating land use externalities. A small sample includes estimating the effect differ in that we focus on announcements that of water amenities on house prices (Brown and Pollakowski, 1977; Cassel and Mendelsohn, 1985; Darling, 1973; 9. Coates, Humphreys, and Zimbalist (2006) sug-Knetsch, 1964; Lansford and Jones, 1995) and the effect gested that Carlino and Coulsons estimation results are of public open-space externalities on house prices (Correll, based on relatively few observations and are therefore Lillydahl, and Singell, 1978; Dehring and Dunse, 2006; not as robust as claimed. In a rejoinder, Carlino and Espey and Owusu-Edusei, 2001; Irwin, 2002; Weicher Coulson (2006) suggested that this argument is incorrect.

and Zerbst, 1973). The effects of potentially negative 10. Hakes and Hutmaker (2006) found that fans externalities such as transmission towers, power lines, nearest the stadium value the team the most.

group homes, airports, and land"lls on residential prop- 11. See Oates (1969), Bloom and Yinger (1983), and erty values have also been examined. Man and Bell (1996).

DEHRING, DEPKEN & WARD: THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES 631 a stadium might/will be built in a particular (MacKinlay, 1997). We employ a difference-area, all of which are predevelopment, rather in-difference identi"cation strategy to distin-than pre- and post-stadium construction. guish the net amenity effect before and after We implicitly assume that housing markets ex- each announcement.

hibit informational ef"ciency, such that any There is a large literature on hedonic pric-expected net externality effects are capitalized ing models of houses. These studies typically in house prices well in advance of the actual "nd that in large metropolitan areas, most project completion. Our article also differs of the variation in house prices can be from that of Tu in that we investigate the explained by a houses age, size, and the qual-immediate impact of stadium announcements ity of local public schools. Other factors on property values. Tu found that FedEx "eld include the availability of parking, whether enhanced proximate property values by ap- the property includes a swimming pool, and proximately $42 million in aggregate, which the time of sale. Following standard practice, re"ects a pure amenity effect. In contrast to we include these controls as well as the varia-the Cowboys stadium, FedEx "eld was essen- bles of interest to measure stadium effects.

tially privately funded, implying no local tax We investigate the impact of "ve separate effect generated by the stadium. stadium announcements, two of which con-Our use of announcement dates rather than cern Dallas and three of which concern Arling-project completion dates is not without prece- ton. The "rst two announcements represent dent. For example, Colwell, Dehring, and the stadium potentially coming to and then Lash (2000) used announcement dates to test leaving the Fair Park district near down-the effect of group homes on neighborhood town Dallas. The "rst (second) of these an-house prices. They measured the announce- nouncements is associated with an increased ment date as the day the public was "rst made (decreased) probability that a new stadium aware that a group home was to be opened in would be built in downtown Dallas. Three the area. Similarly, Dehring (2006) used ordi- additional announcements center on the pro-nance dates, rather than the effective dates of posal to build a stadium in Arlington. These regulation, to investigate the effect of coastal announcements correspond with the dates construction code changes on vacant land on which the mayor of Arlington announced development in Florida. Using announcement his previous negotiations, the city council vote dates avoids potential speci"cation bias when to approve a ballot initiative, and the af"rma-the purpose of the empirical analysis is to iden- tive ballot initiative outcome (Table 1).

tify the impact of policy changes on property Our estimation strategy is based on each values. To the degree that property markets event changing the probability of different sets incorporate new information in a timely fash- of houses being affected by the proposed Cow-ion, property value adjustments might have boys move. After 2003, it was increasingly already occurred by the time the policy likely that the Cowboys franchise would relo-changes actually take effect. cate somewhere within the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. At the time, there may have IV. DATA AND METHODOLOGY been six or seven viable sites, implying that each had an ex ante nontrivial positive prob-Our test of the impact of stadium an- ability of being chosen. We assume that the nouncements on residential property values "rst Dallas announcement increased the prob-combines hedonic pricing models, event study ability that the team would locate to Fair Park methodology, and difference-in-difference and that the second announcement reduced estimators. Hedonic pricing reveals the im- this probability to zero. We further assume that plicit price of housing and location attributes, the probability of the team relocating to Arling-as well as any price effects from the stadium.12 ton increased with the next three announce-Because each announcement increases or ments during the summer and fall 2004.

decreases the probability that a stadium One obvious difference from standard would be built in a speci"c location, each is event studies is that we cannot track daily allowed to have an impact on property values changes in the value of a single house but must draw inferences from prices of different

12. Rosen (1973) is the groundbreaking hedonic pric-ing study, but see Sirmans, Macpherson, and Zietz (2005) houses. Another is that we are not calculating for a thorough review of hedonic pricing in real estate. the return relative to the general market as one

632 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY TABLE 1 Dallas Cowboys Stadium Announcements Date Description Announcement 1 April 30, Proposal to build a stadium at Fair Park in downtown Dallas. The proposed 2004 stadium would replace the aging Cotton Bowl, and the public contribution to construction costs would be "nanced by a half cent sales tax throughout Dallas County. Ultimately, the city of Dallas would not contribute to this additional tax because of contractual obligations to retire its debt for the American Airlines Arena.

Announcement 2 June 9, 2004 The Fair Park proposal of"cially abandoned.

Announcement 3 July 17, Arlingtons mayor announces that he has been in secret negotiations with the 2004 team about building a new publicly subsidized stadium near the existing baseball stadium in Arlington.

Announcement 4 August 17, Arlingtons city council approves a stadium ballot initiative for the November 2004 2004 general election. The ballot initiative asks voters to approve up to $325 million toward land acquisition and construction costs for a new stadium located near the existing baseball stadium in Arlington. The ballot initiative also includes a one-half cent sales tax in Arlington as well as additional hotel and car rental taxes.

Announcement 5 November 3, Arlington voters approve ballot initiative on November 3, 2004, and the 2004 additional taxes are instituted on April 1, 2005.

would do when analyzing abnormal stock returns. Any price effect from a proposed sta- where b, d, u, and g are vectors of parameters dium should be re"ected in the prices of houses to be estimated and ei is a composite zero-bene"ting, or suffering, from the expected net mean error term that facilitates neighborhood effect at the time of the announcement. For "xed effects and spatial correlation.

example, the public expense of the Fair Park The dependent variable ln(PRICE) is the stadium was to have been funded by taxation logarithm of the sale price of the house. The within Dallas County. All else equal, we vector FEATURES includes both structural expect this tax effect to cause a reduction in and location attributes including structure Dallas County house prices after the "rst age, aged squared, amount of living area, area announcement and a commensurate increase squared, the number of baths, the existence of after the second announcement. a pool, number of parking places, and dummy We employ a general difference-in-difference variables for the public schools serving the identi"cation strategy to calculate the effects of school. The vector ANNOUNCE includes the stadiums. For example, for the "rst announce- appropriate dummy variables, for the sample ment, we include a Dallas County dummy vari- analyzed, indicating whether the sales price able, an announcement date dummy variable, was agreed upon after each of the "ve an-and the Dallas County dummy variable inter- nouncements. The variable TAXJURIS is a acted with the postannouncement period. Since dummy variable, indicating that the home is the measured effect of the interaction represents within the jurisdiction of the proposed tax the differential impact of the stadium on houses intended to fund the public share of the sta-in Dallas County relative to either general dium building expense.

announcement effects independent of location For the Dallas Fair Park proposal, we or Dallas County effects at different times, we include two separate dummy variables: one identify it with the expected effect of increased for the city of Dallas and one for all the other taxation to "nance the stadium on Dallas cities in Dallas County. The initial Fair Park County houses. stadium proposal included a countywide sales Our estimating equation is represented as: tax to pay for the stadium. However, the city of Dallas likely would not have contributed to the football stadium until it had retired its debt 1 lnPRICEi 5 bFEATURESi for the basketball-hockey arena built in 1998.

dANNOUNCEi It is not clear if homeowners in the city of uTAXJURISi Dallas anticipated higher taxes or not. If the market anticipated tax burdens correctly, the gANNOUNCEi announcement of the stadium coming to Dallas

 TAXJURISi ei ; would have been a pure amenity effect in the

DEHRING, DEPKEN & WARD: THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES 633 city of Dallas, similar to the effect found by Tu However, it is likely that there is also spatial (2005), while property value changes in the rest correlation that in"uences the variance of of Dallas County would have been a net effect. house properties as well. We therefore use When the Fair Park stadium proposal was aban- a robust GLS estimator that allows for "xed doned, the reverse pattern would be expected. effects (mean shifters) and clustering (variance For the Arlington stadium proposal, we shifters) based on elementary schools. The de"ne TAXJURIS as the city of Arlington. estimator we employ uses a great deal of infor-We identify each announcement in Arlington mation as there are 745 elementary schools in-as signaling an increased likelihood that a sta- cluded in the Dallas-centered sample and 649 dium would be built in Arlington. Thus, if the elementary schools included in the Arlington-proposed stadium had a net positive (negative) centered sample.

expected impact on the communitys attributes, Our data include two samples of residen-we anticipate each announcement to correspond tial property sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth with an increase (decrease) on house prices in Metroplex from January 2004 through Arlington, relative to the surrounding areas. March 2005. The residential property sales Three points regarding the tax jurisdiction data were collected from the Multiple Listing indicators are worth mentioning. First, for both Service (MLS). We subtract 30 d from the stadium proposals, the public contribution to closing date, reported by the MLS, to more the stadiums cost was to be "nanced by an in- closely align house contract dates with the crease in the local sales tax rate. Citizens of announcement effects.14 To avoid undue one city or county may well be taxed in propor- in"uence of outlier properties, we excluded tion to their taxable purchases within the juris- observations that corresponded to houses diction. However, some owners of houses in more than 70 yr old, more than 7,000 square the tax jurisdiction may purchase taxable items feet, less than 500 square feet, or with more outside the jurisdiction. The converse is true for than seven bathrooms. Both the Dallas-homeowners in nearby cities. Because the land and Arlington-centered samples were further area of Dallas City, Dallas County, and Arling- limited by excluding properties beyond 20 ton is large relative to normal shopping distan- miles from the proposed stadium site. The ces, we expect the measurement error from these Dallas-centered sample ultimately comprises border regions to be small. Second, using a 42,351 observations; the Arlington-centered dummy variable, we are implicitly assuming that sample comprises 32,061 observations. The the tax burden is roughly proportional to the descriptive statistics of the data are provided house value. This is likely to hold since both in Table 2. The "rst two columns report the housing value and expenditures on taxable items mean and standard deviation of our depen-are likely to be highly correlated with household dent and independent variables for the income. Third, there may be a positive amenity Dallas-centered sample. The second two col-effectfromhavingonestownassociatedwiththe umns report the descriptive statistics for the team,regardlessofthedistancetothestadium.In Arlington-centered sample.

this case, the measurement of the tax jurisdiction effect is the net of the tax and amenity effects.

We employ a generalized least squares V. EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (GLS) estimator that takes into account pos-sible heteroscedasticity and spatial autocorre- We estimate the difference-in-difference lation. Since we cannot reject that the error model described in Equation (1) including ele-term has a common component at the city mentary school "xed effects. We accommo-level, our estimator allows the variances to dif- date spatial correlation in property values fer across geographic areas. We include a "xed by clustering the error terms by elementary effect for the public elementary school that a homeowners children would likely attend.

14. This is not always guaranteed to directly align The elementary school almost always identi- house sale dates with announcement dates as closing "es a middle and a high school as well.13 times can differ. However, the average time to close is approximately 30 d, and we anticipate that any other measurement error introduced by our adjustment is not
13. Evidence suggests that there is a high correlation systematically related to the stadium announcements.

between property value and the quality of the public Therefore, the adjustment would only in"uence the ef"-

schools (Downes and Zabel, 2002). ciency, but not the consistency, of our estimation results.

634 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY TABLE 2 Sample Descriptive Statistics Dallas Sample Arlington Sample Variable Mean SD Mean SD Log of price 11.97 0.61 11.86 0.64 Age (yr) 23.26 17.15 22.64 18.56 Square feet 2,165.00 911.09 2,078.58 877.65 Pool (1 5 yes) 0.17 0.38 0.15 0.35 Number of bathrooms 2.52 0.92 2.42 0.88 Number of garage spots 1.79 0.83 1.76 0.83 Number of storeys 1.33 0.48 1.30 0.48 February 0.09 0.29 0.08 0.27 March 0.08 0.27 0.08 0.27 April 0.08 0.28 0.09 0.28 May 0.08 0.28 0.08 0.28 June 0.09 0.29 0.09 0.29 July 0.09 0.28 0.09 0.29 August 0.08 0.28 0.09 0.28 September 0.07 0.26 0.07 0.26 October 0.07 0.25 0.07 0.26 November 0.06 0.24 0.07 0.25 December 0.07 0.25 0.07 0.26 Time trend 7.11 3.58 6.89 3.43 Dallas City 0.23 0.42 Dallas County 0.46 0.49 Arlington 0.13 0.33 Announcement 1 0.63 0.48 Announcement 2 0.52 0.49 Announcement 3 0.39 0.48 Announcement 4 0.30 0.46 Announcement 5 0.10 0.31 Dallas Announcement 1 0.17 0.37 Dallas Announcement 2 0.14 0.35 Arlington Announcement 3 0.06 0.23 Arlington Announcement 4 0.05 0.21 Arlington Announcement 5 0.02 0.13 Number of observations 42,351 32,061 Elementary schools 745 689 Notes: Data re"ect residential property sales from January 1, 2004, through February 28, 2005, with complete data, and located within 20 miles of the Cotton Bowl for the Dallas sample and the Ballpark in Arlington for the Arlington sample.

Data obtained from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex MLS. January is used as the reference month. Dummy variable means do not sum to 1 because of rounding.

school. The full estimation results are detailed the results obtained using data from other in Tables 3 through 5. large metropolitan areas. For instance, in both The primary hedonic regression results are the Dallas and the Arlington samples, each provided in Table 3. The left column provides additional year of age reduces the average results pertaining to the Dallas sample, cen- property by approximately 1.3%, although tered on the Cotton Bowl in downtown this decline is tempered a bit by the positive Dallas, whereas the right column provides coef"cient on the quadratic of age. Likewise, results pertaining to Arlington, centered on each additional 20 square feet adds approxi-the Ballpark in Arlington (the approximate mately 1% to the value of the house, although site of the proposed Cowboys stadium). The this increase is also tempered by the negative hedonic regression results are consistent with parameter estimate on the quadratic of square

DEHRING, DEPKEN & WARD: THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES 635 TABLE 3 footage. In both cities, a pool on the property Estimated Values of Housing Characteristics adds approximately 8.5%, each bathroom adds an additional 5%, each covered parking Dallas Arlington Sample (1) Sample (2) spot adds 5%, and an additional storey, hold-ing square footage constant, reduces the aver-Age 0.013*** (0.001) 0.013*** (0.001) age property value by approximately 9%.

Age squared 0.149*** (0.018) 0.127*** (0.017) The primary empirical results of interest,

(103) those pertaining to the stadium announce-Square footage 0.511*** (0.018) 0.550*** (0.017)

(103) ments, are reported in Tables 4 and 5. For Square footage 0.029*** (0.002) 0.004*** (0.002) the Dallas sample, we focus on the "rst two squared (106) announcements: the Cowboys might relocate Pool (1 5 yes) 0.081*** (0.004) 0.087*** (0.004) to Fair Park (Announcement 1) and the Cow-Bathrooms 0.045*** (0.004) 0.049*** (0.005) boys will not relocate to Fair Park (Announce-Covered parking 0.047*** (0.003) 0.055*** (0.004) ment 2). In this case, the city of Dallas would spots enjoy the amenity bene"ts of the stadium but Number of storeys 0.096*** (0.006) 0.098*** (0.006) would not have contributed to the stadium sub-Constant 11.10*** (0.029) 10.96*** (0.028) sidy. However, the rest of the County of Dallas Observations 42,351 32,061 would have paid for the stadium without enjoy-R2 0.89 0.89 ing any proximity amenities associated with the stadium. Therefore, for the Dallas sample, we Notes: Dependent variable is log of sale price. Speci"-

cations include monthly dummy variables and a monthly control for both Dallas and Dallas County time trend. The Dallas sample is centered on Fair Park in announcement effects. In the case of Arlington, downtown Dallas. The Arlington sample is centered on we focus on the last three stadium announce-the Rangers baseball stadium in Arlington. The errors are clustered on elementary schools. Robust standard ments: the city was in negotiations with the errors are given in parentheses. team (Announcement 3), the Arlington city

      • p , .01. council approved a ballot initiative concerning the stadium (Announcement 4), and the af"r-mative outcome of the November 2004 ballot initiative (Announcement 5).

TABLE 4 Unconstrained Stadium Announcement Effects Dallas Sample (1) Arlington Sample (2)

Announcement 1 0.008 (0.029)

Announcement 2 0.006 (0.010)

Dallas City 0.008 (0.029)

Dallas City  Announcement 1 0.021** (0.011)

Dallas City  Announcement 2 0.005 (0.011)

Dallas County 0.012 (0.021)

Dallas County  Announcement 1 0.008 (0.007)

Dallas County  Announcement 2 0.008 (0.006)

Arlington 0.010 (0.037)

Announcement 3 0.004 (0.008)

Announcement 4 0.004 (0.009)

Announcement 5 0.009 (0.017)

Arlington  Announcement 3 0.002 (0.011)

Arlington  Announcement 4 0.011 (0.012)

Arlington  Announcement 5 0.001 (0.009)

Notes: Dependent variable is log of sale price. All speci"cations include house age, age squared, square footage, square footage squared, number of bathrooms, number of garage parking spots, whether the property has a pool or not, the number of storeys, month-speci"c dummy variables, a time trend, and elementary school "xed effects. The Dallas sample is centered on Fair Park in downtown Dallas. The Arlington sample is centered on the Rangers baseball stadium in Arling-ton. The errors are clustered on elementary schools. Robust standard errors are given in parentheses.

    • p , .05.

636 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY TABLE 5 Constrained Stadium Announcement Effects Dallas Sample (1) Arlington Sample (2)

Accumulated general announcement effects 0.007 (0.009) 0.001 (0.005)

Dallas City 0.003 (0.029)

Dallas County 0.007 (0.021)

Dallas City  accumulated announcement effects 0.012 (0.010)

Dallas County  accumulated announcement effects 0.004 (0.003)

Arlington 0.011 (0.037)

Arlington  accumulated announcement effects 0.005** (0.002)

Notes: Dependent variable is log of sale price. All speci"cations include house age, age squared, square footage, square footage squared, number of bathrooms, number of garage parking spots, whether the property has a pool or not, the number of storeys, month-speci"c dummy variables, a time trend, and elementary school "xed effects. The Dallas sample is centered on Fair Park in downtown Dallas. The Arlington sample is centered on the Rangers baseball stadium in Arlington. The errors are clustered on elementary schools. Robust standard errors are given in parentheses.

    • p , .05.

The "rst column of Table 4 presents esti- cally signi"cant, their sum of 0.012 is statis-mation results relating to the potential down- tically less than 0 at the 8% level. This suggests town Dallas site. The initial announcement that the average property in Arlington that that the Cowboys might relocate to Fair Park sold after the stadium referendum might have in Dallas City corresponded with an increase in fallen in value but rather clearly did not property values in Dallas City. On the other increase in value with the announcements hand, this "rst announcement reduced property leading up to the referendum.

values throughout the rest of Dallas County One possible problem with the results (although the parameter estimate is not distin- reported in Table 4 is the assumption that guishable from zero). When the Cowboys each announcement has a separate and iden-announced that they were not going to relocate ti"able impact on residential property val-to Fair Park in downtown Dallas, the opposite ues.15 This approach might ask too much qualitative impacts on property values in the of the data. A more parsimonious approach city of Dallas and throughout Dallas County is to restrict each stadium announcement to are expected. Combined, these results suggest have an identical accumulating impact on res-that there were expectations of amenity effects idential property values, that is, we restrict the of a Cowboys stadium in the city of Dallas parameters on the different announcements but that the bene"ts were outweighed by the to be equal. When imposing this restriction, expected tax burden of the stadium. the dummy variables for the announcement The second column of Table 4 reports periods are summed.16 Given the results in similar estimation results for the Arlington Table 4, we expect the second announcement sample. In this case, only the last three an- effect in Dallas to completely offset the "rst nouncement dates are investigated. Because as the Cowboys ultimately did not relocate Arlington was the only city in the metropoli- to Fair Park; this would be consistent with tan area that would charge additional sales a return to the status quo ante. However, tax to pay for the public contribution to the stadium, there is no need for a separate county 15. As pointed out by a helpful referee, the use of dummy variable. The results suggest that each announcement dates in a reduced form framework cannot distinguish between no capitalization effect and offsetting of the "rst two stadium announcements con- changes in the underlying supply and demand for housing cerning Arlington correlated with a reduction based on the probability of a new stadium being built in in residential property values in Arlington rel- a particular area.

16. The sum of the dummy variables in Dallas can ative to other non-Arlington properties within take a value of 0 or 1; those with a value of 0 sold before 20 miles of the proposed stadium site. The last Announcement 1, those with a value of 1 sold after announcement event, corresponding with the Announcement 2. For properties in Arlington, the sum af"rmative November vote, carries a positive of the announcement dummy variables falls between 0 and 3, that is, the value will be 0 if the property sold parameter estimate. While none of the three before Announcement 3 and 3 if the property sold after parameter estimates are individually statisti- Announcement 5.

DEHRING, DEPKEN & WARD: THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES 637 in Arlington, the cumulative impact of the amenity effect, which has an ambiguous effect Arlington-speci"c stadium announcements is on residential property values. The results pre-ambiguous. sented herein suggest that the aggregated In Column 2 of Table 5, the results from expected city amenity effect and local sales the Dallas sample suggest no net impact on tax burden associated with the proposal to property values from the two announcements build a publicly subsidized stadium for the concerning the Fair Park proposal. This sug- Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas, reduced gests that the values of properties surrounding residential property values.

Fair Park returned to the status quo ante when What is the magnitude of the amenity effect the Fair Park proposal was abandoned. How- for Arlington? A back of the envelope calcu-ever, in Column 3 of Table 5, the results from lation suggests that a household of four with the Arlington sample suggest that each of the $50,000 income might contribute up to $60/yr three announcements corresponded with an in local sales tax dedicated to the stadium con-average reduction in residential property val- struction.17 Assuming a wage growth rate ues in Arlington of approximately one-half of of 4.5%/yr, the 30-yr present value of the tax 1%. Therefore, the aggregated impact of the payments would be approximately $2,000.

announcements concerning the Arlington sta- During the sample period, the average residen-dium proposal was an average reduction in tial property in the city of Arlington sold for Arlington property values of approximately $120,000. The 95% con"dence interval for the 1.5%, a result that is statistically different from accumulated deleterious effect of the various zero (p 5 .023). stadium announcements on average property Although the individual Arlington-speci"c values in Arlington is ($3,343 to $142),

announcement effects are insigni"cant, the centered on $1,742. Therefore, the average signi"cant and negative cumulative effect of reduction in property value is not statistically the three announcements on the property val- different from the expected additional local ues in Arlington, relative to the surrounding sales tax burden. In other words, the general cities, is striking. Proponents of stadium sub- amenity effect in the city of Arlington is not sidies often allude to the positive externalities distinguishable from zero.

the stadium will generate for the host city. If This result differs from that of Tu (2005) such claims were true, then the impact of an who found a positive amenity effect for prop-increasing probability that a stadium would erties located within 3 miles of the NFLs be built in Arlington would be expected to Washington Redskins stadium built in 1995.

increase property values in that city. In our There may be signi"cant differences between analysis of the announcements concerning the area of Landover, Maryland, where the a stadium in Arlington, we "nd no compelling Redskins built their stadium, and Arlington, evidence of individual announcements in- Texas, where the Cowboys are building their creasing the value of properties in the city stadium. Additionally, the tax effects associ-where the stadium would be built. Rather, ated with the Cowboys project did not plague we "nd a negative and strongly signi"cant the Redskins project and this might help cumulative impact of the announcements on explain the differences in the results.

property values. Combined, these results cast Two questions remain unanswered. First, suspicion on the claims that stadium subsidies what is the pattern of changes in residential are justi"ed by pecuniary and nonpecuniary property values in the city of Arlington as positive externalities a stadium provides host the Cowboys stadium is constructed and what city residents. will happen to residential property values after the stadium opens? If property values in VI. CONCLUSIONS Arlington increase after the new stadium opens, this might simply offset the reduction The aggregated impact of stadium an- in property values incurred when the stadium nouncements when stadiums are funded by project was announced. Second, if the prop-municipal tax dollars is the combination of erty values fell in the city of Arlington during three distinct elements: the tax burden, which the stadium campaign, why did the stadium causes a reduction in property values; the overall city amenity effect, which causes an 17. Based on IRS State Sales Tax Deduction tables, increase in property values; and the proximity 2005 Instructions for Schedules A & B (Form 1040).

638 CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY project win the approval of a majority of Depken, C. A. The Impact of New Stadiums on Profes-Arlington voters? Perhaps, the distribution sional Baseball Team Finances. Public Finance and Management, 6, 2006, 436-74.

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