ML12335A661
| ML12335A661 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 01/14/2012 |
| From: | Teagarden G Entergy Nuclear Operations |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 22092, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML12335A661 (6) | |
Text
United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
In the Matter of:
(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)
ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #: ENT000006-00-BD01 Identified: 10/15/2012 ENT000006 Admitted: 10/15/2012 Withdrawn: Submitted: March 28, 2012 Rejected: Stricken:
Other:
Calculation: IPSENSPOP1 Prepared: GrantTeagarden 1/14/2012
Purpose:
PopulationsensitivityforNYS16incorporating Reviewed: KouJohnHong 1/18/2012 censusundercountandcommuters.
Inputs / Methodology:
Start with SAMA ER basecase population from SITE file SITEIEC.inp Dr. Shepherd Report (NYS000209), Table 1 (2035 pop estimates)
Addinundercounts@100%
Addincommuters@50%
Allocatebasedonvisualalignmentofcountiesto50milegrid,ShepherdReportFig1.
10to50milesallocatevisually,consideringbothlandareaandanticipatedpopulationcenters(e.g.,coasts) 0to10Milesbackcalculateduniform%increasetomatchthevisuallyassignedadditions ComparesensitivityMACCS2resultswithIPECReAnalysisResults(IPCALC0900265,Table5DoseandCost)
Comments Minoredit(subtracted6people)toNNW@50tomatchtotal
SAMASITEFILEPOPULATIONDATA 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 N 6 0 271 2059 2501 909 931 1223 1389 1503 1696 22955 30654 39620 51057 NNE 16 7 170 1943 2912 2051 1177 1388 1577 1798 1913 28140 39917 56226 67213 NE 17 193 883 2131 2964 3843 3910 3059 2464 1998 1915 29419 53692 62559 41261 ENE 17 364 1275 2132 2977 3453 4507 5282 6140 6960 7279 74856 119073 152175 176338 E 17 390 1218 2138 2934 3792 4424 5513 5587 7201 8076 118335 156720 200581 208394 ESE 17 409 1256 2136 2970 3592 3698 3857 5734 6783 7409 121515 144267 54180 34361 SE 17 410 1274 2138 2872 3808 4537 5279 6284 7194 8060 111946 87735 236426 379990 SSE 17 360 1268 1645 882 495 15 1442 948 1911 3214 98326 481703 1380249 1218170 S 17 400 701 246 124 620 1538 3253 4129 4455 5138 135211 1164596 3732339 3164306 SSW 17 377 562 500 1700 2882 3544 4187 4873 5517 6159 202605 395389 922649 1034467 SW 17 217 187 1566 2274 2916 3574 4188 4361 5358 6138 183372 276902 197362 246076 WSW 9 0 620 1623 2197 2924 3550 4014 4196 4255 4335 64428 209197 109102 85849 W 3 0 855 1602 2267 2815 2368 1787 1423 1775 2030 32026 50974 61380 57384 WNW 2 0 938 1624 2245 1341 1135 1419 1505 1756 2071 32528 54577 57977 29719 NW 2 45 974 1589 1933 972 1140 1351 1541 1781 2093 32572 54557 24046 22317 NNW 3 50 809 1051 1587 740 1204 1407 1620 1787 2028 31660 32569 27599 34374 TOTAL 194 3222 13261 26123 35339 37153 41252 48649 53771 62032 69554 1319894 3352522 7314470 6851276 19228712 UNDERCOUNT&COMMUTERADDITIONS 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 N 0 0 3 23 28 10 10 14 16 17 19 500 2000 2000 2000 N NNE 0 0 2 22 33 23 13 16 18 20 21 100 1500 2500 2500 NNE NE 0 2 10 24 33 43 44 34 28 22 21 200 700 3371 4500 NE ENE 0 4 14 24 33 39 50 59 69 78 81 1100 5100 9837 22500 ENE E 0 4 14 24 33 42 49 62 62 81 90 2000 5000 5000 22895 E ESE 0 5 14 24 33 40 41 43 64 76 83 2000 5000 2000 5213 ESE SE 0 5 14 24 32 43 51 59 70 80 90 2000 3000 15000 41965 SE SSE 0 4 14 18 10 6 0 16 11 21 36 1000 12000 39738 40000 SSE S 0 4 8 3 1 7 17 36 46 50 57 2500 23903 139503 95757 S SSW 0 4 6 6 19 32 40 47 54 62 69 2300 9000 36988 65756 SSW SW 0 2 2 18 25 33 40 47 49 60 69 2300 9000 16879 24716 SW WSW 0 0 7 18 25 33 40 45 47 48 48 600 4500 4000 1129 WSW W 0 0 10 18 25 31 26 20 16 20 23 500 1643 2000 2292 W WNW 0 0 10 18 25 15 13 16 17 20 23 500 1000 1512 1000 WNW NW 0 1 11 18 22 11 13 15 17 20 23 500 1000 2000 2000 NW NNW 0 1 9 12 18 8 13 16 18 20 23 500 1500 2000 2157 NNW 4367 18600 85846 284328 336380 (0to10) 729521 MinoredittoNNW@50tomatchtotal
SAMA+ADDITIONS 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 N 6 0 274 2082 2529 919 941 1237 1405 1520 1715 23455 32654 41620 53057 NNE 16 7 172 1965 2945 2074 1190 1404 1595 1818 1934 28240 41417 58726 69713 NE 17 195 893 2155 2997 3886 3954 3093 2492 2020 1936 29619 54392 65930 45761 ENE 17 368 1289 2156 3010 3492 4557 5341 6209 7038 7360 75956 124173 162012 198838 E 17 394 1232 2162 2967 3834 4473 5575 5649 7282 8166 120335 161720 205581 231289 ESE 17 414 1270 2160 3003 3632 3739 3900 5798 6859 7492 123515 149267 56180 39574 SE 17 415 1288 2162 2904 3851 4588 5338 6354 7274 8150 113946 90735 251426 421955 SSE 17 364 1282 1663 892 501 15 1458 959 1932 3250 99326 493703 1419987 1258170 S 17 404 709 249 125 627 1555 3289 4175 4505 5195 137711 1188499 3871842 3260063 SSW 17 381 568 506 1719 2914 3584 4234 4927 5579 6228 204905 404389 959637 1100223 SW 17 219 189 1584 2299 2949 3614 4235 4410 5418 6207 185672 285902 214241 270792 WSW 9 0 627 1641 2222 2957 3590 4059 4243 4303 4383 65028 213697 113102 86978 W 3 0 865 1620 2292 2846 2394 1807 1439 1795 2053 32526 52617 63380 59676 WNW 2 0 948 1642 2270 1356 1148 1435 1522 1776 2094 33028 55577 59489 30719 NW 2 46 985 1607 1955 983 1153 1366 1558 1801 2116 33072 55557 26046 24317 NNW 3 51 818 1063 1605 748 1217 1423 1638 1807 2051 32160 34069 29599 36531 194 3258 13409 26417 35734 37569 41712 49194 54373 62727 70330 1338494 3438368 7598798 7187656 19958233
Dr.ShepherdTable1Data(page8)
Pct within Resident Transient Sensitivity County 50mi. Pop Pop Undercount Commuters TotalPop Addition Fairfield 100 918,600 14,228 5,701 52,388 990,917 31,895 Litchfield 41.5 90,183 1,397 114 20,633 112,328 10,431 NewHaven 32.9 294,904 4,568 1,823 85,165 386,459 44,406 Bergen 100 1,089,428 25,448 7,056 30,893 1,152,826 22,503 Essex 100 868,715 20,292 14,474 62,809 966,290 45,879 Hudson 100 690,981 16,140 9,208 30,913 747,242 24,665 Middlesex 1.8 18,963 443 180 7,739 27,325 4,050 Morris 80.8 527,786 12,328 2,026 83,176 625,317 43,614 Passaic 100 553,404 12,926 6,255 12,135 584,721 12,323 Somerset 4.5 21,156 494 131 9,169 30,950 4,716 Sussex 93.9 204,652 4,780 262 9,762 219,456 5,143 Union 92.9 548,682 12,816 5,369 69,446 636,315 40,092 Warren 0.5 780 18 1 256 1,056 129 Bronx 100 1,634,750 22,930 34,396 6,683 1,698,759 37,738 Dutchess 88.9 283,939 6,809 1,392 18,957 311,096 10,871 Kings 100 2,618,418 36,727 46,188 34,740 2,736,073 63,558 Nassau 97.9 1,225,359 29,384 7,610 78,710 1,341,063 46,965 NewYork 100 1,570,657 22,031 21,506 154,793 1,768,987 98,903 Orange 100 445,234 10,676 2,177 14,410 472,498 9,382 Putnam 100 120,738 2,895 222 1,251 125,106 848 Queens 100 3,024,717 42,426 50,742 47,269 3,165,154 74,377 Richmond 65.4 433,496 6,080 2,914 37,816 480,305 21,822 Rockland 100 278,799 6,685 1,931 1,779 289,195 2,821 Suffolk 21.3 317,533 7,614 1,467 87,491 414,106 45,213 Sullivan 36.3 34,142 819 150 6,724 41,835 3,512 Ulster 58.1 129,363 3,102 430 19,466 152,360 10,163 Westchester 100 914,934 21,939 7,865 8,702 953,440 12,216 Pike 18.7 19,343 3,222 40 2,503 25,108 1,292 Total 18,879,657 349,218 231,632 995,778 20,456,285 729,521 Check 18,879,656 349,217 231,630 995,778 20,456,287
BASECASE - IP2 IP2 - IPEC SAMA MACCS2 Re-Analysis (IP-CALC-09-00265) Table 5 Dose and Cost Results IP2 Freq Dose Dose Risk % of Tot. Cost Cost Risk % of Dose Dose Risk Source Term (per yr) (sv) (sv/year) Total ($) ($/yr) Total (rem) (rem/year)
NCF 1.19E-05 4.75E+01 5.65E-04 0.06% 9.98E+04 1.19E+00 0.00% 4.75E+03 5.65E-02 Early High 6.50E-07 6.51E+05 4.23E-01 48.44% 2.05E+11 1.33E+05 62.87% 6.51E+07 4.23E+01 Early Medium 4.23E-07 1.94E+05 8.21E-02 9.39% 5.87E+10 2.48E+04 11.71% 1.94E+07 8.21E+00 Early Low 1.11E-07 7.93E+04 8.80E-03 1.01% 6.39E+09 7.09E+02 0.33% 7.93E+06 8.80E-01 Late High 6.88E-07 1.63E+05 1.12E-01 12.84% 4.64E+10 3.19E+04 15.06% 1.63E+07 1.12E+01 Late Medium 3.43E-06 6.87E+04 2.36E-01 26.98% 6.06E+09 2.08E+04 9.81% 6.87E+06 2.36E+01 Late Low 6.43E-07 1.61E+04 1.04E-02 1.19% 6.59E+08 4.24E+02 0.20% 1.61E+06 1.04E+00 Late Low Low 5.82E-08 1.38E+04 8.03E-04 0.09% 5.62E+08 3.27E+01 0.02% 1.38E+06 8.03E-02 Total 1.79E-05 8.74E-01 2.12E+05 1.19E+08 8.74E+01 Total (rem/yr) 8.74E+01 IP2 - Sensitivity Pop = Undercount & 1/2 Commuters - IPPOP1.out (1/15/2012)
Frequency Dose Dose Risk % of Tot. Cost Cost Risk % of Dose Dose Risk Source Term (per yr) (sv) (sv/year) Total ($) ($/yr) Total (rem) (rem/year)
NCF 1.19E-05 4.85E+01 5.77E-04 0.06% 9.98E+04 1.19E+00 0.00% 4.85E+03 5.77E-02 Early High 6.50E-07 6.72E+05 4.37E-01 48.48% 2.12E+11 1.38E+05 63.03% 6.72E+07 4.37E+01 Early Medium 4.23E-07 2.00E+05 8.46E-02 9.39% 6.06E+10 2.56E+04 11.72% 2.00E+07 8.46E+00 Early Low 1.11E-07 8.19E+04 9.09E-03 1.01% 6.50E+09 7.22E+02 0.33% 8.19E+06 9.09E-01 Late High 6.88E-07 1.68E+05 1.16E-01 12.83% 4.78E+10 3.29E+04 15.04% 1.68E+07 1.16E+01 Late Medium 3.43E-06 7.08E+04 2.43E-01 26.95% 6.16E+09 2.11E+04 9.66% 7.08E+06 2.43E+01 Late Low 6.43E-07 1.66E+04 1.07E-02 1.18% 6.66E+08 4.28E+02 0.20% 1.66E+06 1.07E+00 Late Low Low 5.82E-08 1.42E+04 8.26E-04 0.09% 5.68E+08 3.31E+01 0.02% 1.42E+06 8.26E-02 Total 1.79E-05 9.01E-01 2.19E+05 9.01E+01 Total (rem/yr) 9.01E+01 delta base 3.1% 3.2%
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- ::::.___ Miles 40 50 Through this procedure, Entergy's consultants obtained an estimate of the 2035 resident population within 50 miles of IPEC (shown in column 3 of Table 1 below) for each county, providing an estimated population of 18,879,657 persons residing within 50 miles of IPEC,
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