ML12334A732
| ML12334A732 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 12/16/2011 |
| From: | Sheppard S State of NY, Office of the Attorney General |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 21569, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML12334A732 (18) | |
Text
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 1
UNITED STATES 1
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 2
BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD 3
x 4
In re:
Docket Nos. 50-247-LR; 50-286-LR 5
License Renewal Application Submitted by ASLBP No. 07-858-03-LR-BD01 6
Entergy Nuclear Indian Point 2, LLC, DPR-26, DPR-64 7
Entergy Nuclear Indian Point 3, LLC, and 8
Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
December 16, 2011 9
x 10 PRE-FILED WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF 11 DR. STEPHEN SHEPPARD, PH.D.
12 REGARDING CONTENTION NYS-16/16A/16B (NYS-16B) 13 On behalf of the State of New York (NYS or the State),
14 the Office of the Attorney General hereby submits the following 15 testimony by Dr. Stephen Sheppard regarding Contention NYS-16 16/16A/16B (NYS-16B).
17 Q.
Please state your full name.
18 A.
Stephen Charles Sheppard.
19 Q.
By whom are you employed and what is your position?
20 A.
I am a Professor of Economics at Williams College in 21 Williamstown, Massachusetts.
22 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit In the Matter of:
Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)
ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #:
Identified:
Admitted:
Withdrawn:
Rejected:
Stricken:
Other:
NYS000207-00-BD01 10/15/2012 10/15/2012 NYS000207 Submitted: December 16, 2011
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 2
Q.
Please summarize your educational and professional 1
qualifications.
2 A.
I hold a Ph.D. and a Masters Degree in economics from 3
Washington University in St. Louis, MO, and a Bachelors of 4
Science Degree in economics from the University of Utah in Salt 5
Lake City, UT. Since 1976, I have conducted research, written, 6
lectured, and taught on topics such as microeconomic theory, 7
urban economics, land use regulation, housing markets, and 8
environmental economics. In my profession, I have worked 9
extensively with population data, including Census Bureau data, 10 and am knowledgeable in population calculation and modeling.
11 For example, in 2003, I received funding from the World Bank and 12 the National Science Foundation to study urban expansion in 13 cities around the world. Population is a critical input in 14 creating models to predict urban sprawl, and so, I worked with 15 data from the Census of the US and 55 other countries around the 16 world to create accurate population estimates for that study. I 17 have also worked with population data in my research on the 18 impacts of terrorism on urban form and structure. My education 19 and experience are described in my curriculum vita (CV), which 20 is attached to my testimony as Exh. NYS000208.
A list of my 21 publications is also included in my CV.
22
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 3
Q.
I show you what has been marked as Exh. NYS000209. Do 1
you recognize that document?
2 A.
Yes. It is a copy of the report that I prepared for 3
the State of New York in this proceeding. The report reflects 4
my analysis and opinions.
5 Q.
What is the purpose of your testimony?
6 A.
The purpose of my testimony is to provide my views on 7
the States Contention 16B1, which asserts that Entergy and the 8
NRC Staff have underestimated the 2035 population within 50 9
miles of Indian Point likely to be exposed to radiation during a 10 severe accident. Neither Entergy nor the NRC Staff considered 11 census undercount or the commuter population, which led to the 12 underestimation. These omissions are significant because 13 population is a key input in the severe accident mitigation 14 alternatives (SAMA) analysis conducted by Entergy. A lower 15 population estimate could lead to an underestimation of the 16 1 The Atomic Safety and Licensing Board (ASLB) admitted NYS-16 in ASLBP No. 07-858-03-LR-BD01, Memorandum and Order (Memorandum And Order Ruling on Petitions to Intervene and Requests for Hearing) (July 31, 2008). On June 16, 2009, the ASLB admitted and consolidated NYS Contention 16A.
See Ruling on New York States New and Amended Contentions (June 16, 2009). On June 30, 2010, the Board admitted amended Contention NYS-16B (Ruling on the Admissibility of New Yorks New and Amended Contentions 12B, 16B, 35, and 36) (July 6, 2011) and consolidated it with 16/16A.
In Contention 16, the State also challenged Entergys air dispersion model as not accurately predicting the geographic dispersion of radionuclides released in a severe accident but it has chosen not to pursue that aspect of the contention.
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 4
benefit obtained from implementing a SAMA, thus potentially 1
excluding certain mitigation alternatives from full 2
consideration.
3 Q.
Have you reviewed materials in preparation for your 4
testimony?
5 A.
Yes.
6 Q.
What is the source of those materials?
7 A.
Many are documents prepared by government agencies, 8
peer reviewed articles, or documents prepared by Entergy or its 9
consultants.
10 Q.
I show you Exhibits NYS000211 through NYS000218. Do 11 you recognize these documents?
12 A.
Yes. These are true and accurate copies of the 13 documents that I referred to, used and/or relied upon in 14 preparing my report and this testimony. In some cases, where 15 the document was extremely long and only a small portion is 16 relevant to my testimony, an excerpt of the document is 17 provided. If it is only an excerpt, that is noted on the first 18 page of the Exhibit.
19 Q.
How do these documents relate to the work that you do 20 as an expert in forming opinions such as those contained in this 21 testimony?
22
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 5
A.
These documents represent the type of information that 1
persons within my field of expertise reasonably rely upon in 2
forming opinions of the type offered in this testimony.
3 Q.
What materials have you reviewed in preparation for 4
your testimony?
5 A.
The materials I have reviewed are listed in Exh.
6 NYS000219. I have reviewed the NYS-16B filings concerning 7
population calculations. I have also reviewed Entergys and its 8
consultants reports that concern population estimates, as well 9
as NRCs analysis of Entergys population estimate, contained in 10 Appendix G of the Final Supplemental Environmental Impact 11 Statement (FSEIS). I am familiar with the body of scholarly 12 work that discusses the census undercount and I have reviewed 13 data from the 2000 Census.
14 Q.
Have Entergy and the NRC Staff underestimated the 2035 15 population within 50 miles of Indian point that would be 16 affected by a severe accident?
17 A.
In my professional judgment and as I describe in more 18 detail, below, and in my report, the population estimate, used 19 by Entergy in its 2007 SAMA analysis and 2009 SAMA reanalysis, 20 and approved by the NRC Staff in the FSEIS, is deficient in two 21 respects. First, it fails to account for census undercount, 22 which is the undercounting of a portion of the population by the 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 6
U.S. Census Bureau. Second, it does not include in the 1
transient population those who live outside the 50 mile radius 2
of IPEC, but commute to workplaces within IPECs 50 mile radius.
3 Q.
What is the result of the two deficiencies you have 4
identified?
5 A.
As a result of these two deficiencies, Entergy 6
underestimated the 2035 population within 50 miles of IPEC by 7
approximately 1.2 million persons or 6.38 percent.
8 Q.
Have you reviewed Entergys estimation of the current 9
population of the region within 50 miles of Indian Point?
10 A.
Yes, Entergys population estimate is contained in its 11 License Renewal Application, in Appendix E and Attachment E of 12 the Environmental Report, and I have reviewed those parts of 13 that document. I have also reviewed Entergys consultants 14 report, Exh. NYS000211, which provides a more detailed 15 discussion of Entergys population estimate.
16 Q.
What types of population does Entergys estimate 17 include?
18 A.
Entergys estimate includes the permanent and 19 transient population. The transient population includes 20 business travelers and tourists traveling to or through each 21 county and staying temporarily within the county, but does not 22
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 7
include those who live outside the 50 mile radius of IPEC and 1
travel to workplaces within the 50 mile radius (commuters).
2 Q.
Please explain how Entergy estimated the current 3
population?
4 A.
First, Entergy determined which counties are, in whole 5
or in part, within 50 miles of IPEC. For those counties that are 6
not entirely within the 50 mile radius, Entergy determined the 7
percentage of land area in the county that is within the 50 mile 8
radius of IPEC. Then Entergy used population estimates from 9
state and local governments, based on 2000 Census data, to 10 determine the population of each county.
11 Next, Entergy made use of state and local estimates of 12 transient population to estimate the ratio of permanent to 13 transient population for each county in 2004. Transient 14 population is an average of person-visits per day.
15 To estimate the permanent population in each county within 16 50 miles of IPEC, Entergy assumed that the population in each 17 county is distributed evenly throughout the county, and 18 multiplied the permanent population of each county by the 19 percentage of the county that is located within the 50 mile 20 radius of IPEC.
21 This number was then multiplied by the ratio of permanent 22 to transient population, to estimate the current transient 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 8
population in each county within 50 miles of IPEC. The 1
permanent and transient populations for each county were added 2
to get the total population within 50 miles of IPEC for each 3
county. Each countys population was added to get the current 4
total population within 50 miles of IPEC.
5 Q.
How did Entergy project the current population to 6
2035?
7 A. Entergy obtained county level projections of the 8
permanent population from the New York Statistical Information 9
System from 2000 to 2030, the New Jersey Department of Labor and 10 Workforce Development from 2000 to 2025, the Connecticut Data 11 Center from 2000 to 2020, and the Pennsylvania Data Center from 12 2000 to 2020. These state-generated projections are based on 13 U.S. Census Bureau data. Entergy performed a regression analysis 14 of the state data to project the permanent population of each 15 county in 2035. Linear regression was used for all counties 16 except for New York, Westchester, and Rockland counties where 17 polynomial regression was used. Entergy has not given an 18 explanation with the details of how these regressions were made, 19 therefore, I was unable to check their accuracy.
20 The permanent 2035 population of each county was multiplied 21 by the percentage of the county within 50 miles of IPEC. The 22 2035 transient population in each county was calculated by 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 9
multiplying the estimated 2035 permanent population within 50 1
miles of IPEC by the transient to permanent population ratio, 2
which was assumed to remain constant through 2035. The permanent 3
and transient populations were added together to get county 4
totals. Adding the county totals provided by Entergy, the total 5
estimated population within 50 miles of IPEC for 2035 is 6
19,229,875 persons.
7 Next, Entergy transferred the total population from source 8
areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements, i.e. wind 9
direction and buffer distance) by converting county population 10 to a density measure and multiplying this density by the area 11 that a county has in a given spatial element. This calculation 12 produced a total population of 19,228,712 persons, which was the 13 number used in the 2007 SAMA analysis and 2009 SAMA reanalysis.
14 This is 163 persons less than the total population before 15 conversion from county to spatial element. Entergy did not 16 provide data on the area that each county has in each spatial 17 element so it is impossible for me to determine how exactly this 18 discrepancy came about. However, I surmise that it is the 19 result of rounding decimal points (163 is.00085 percent of 19.2 20 million). For my calculations, I used the county (as opposed to 21 the spatial element) population estimate because Entergys 22 report did not give enough information to determine census 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 10 undercount and commuter populations by spatial element (I would 1
need to know the area that each county has in a given spatial 2
element and Entergy has not provided that data).
3 Q.
Have you identified any deficiencies in Entergys 4
estimation of either the current population or its projection to 5
2035?
6 A. Yes, neither the 2000 population estimation nor the 2035 7
population projection accounts for census undercount or includes 8
those who reside outside of the 50 mile radius of IPEC, but 9
commute to workplaces within the 50 mile radius.
10 Q.
What effect do these deficiencies have on Entergys 11 2035 population estimate?
12 A.
These deficiencies cause the population to be 13 materially underestimated.
14 Q.
Can you explain the concept of census undercount, 15 which you identify as one of the clear deficiencies in Entergys 16 methodology?
17 A.
Census undercount is the persistent undercount of 18 portions of the population by the U.S. Census Bureau in the 19 decennial census. In particular, minorities and the poor are 20 undercounted at higher rates than other populations. For 21 example, in the 1990 census there was an estimated undercount of 22 4 million people. Exh. NYS000213 at p. 1. In that census, 4.4 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 11 percent of Blacks, 5 percent of Hispanics, 2.3 percent of Asians 1
and Pacific Islanders, and 4.5 percent of American Indians were 2
missed, compared to 0.7 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Id.
3 Census undercount has been acknowledged for some time by 4
the U.S. Census Bureau. The September 2001 Presidential Members 5
Final Report to Congress (Exh. NYS000213) recognized census 6
undercount and summarized many other publications that have 7
described the phenomenon.
8 Q.
Can you describe how census undercount affects the 9
region within 50 miles of Indian Point?
10 A.
Census undercount causes the census data relied on by 11 Entergy in forming its 2035 population estimate to give an 12 artificially low count of the population within 50 miles of IPEC 13 at risk in the event of a severe accident. Census undercount 14 consists of missing people who are actually resident at a 15 particular location. This can happen because they are not 16 counted or because their addresses are missed (for example, they 17 never get the census form or a follow up visit). The Census 18 Bureau makes an effort to have a complete set of addresses. New 19 York City, located approximately 24 miles from Indian Point, has 20 a large minority population that has been subject to census 21 undercount. Of the 4 million addresses added to the 1990 census 22 to account for census undercount, 280,000 were located in New 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 12 York City alone. Exh. NYS000213 at p. 22. Even with a complete 1
set of addresses however, undercount could still occur because 2
people are trying to avoid being counted or dont understand 3
census instructions.
4 Q.
Is it possible to estimate the effect of census 5
undercount?
6 A.
Yes. The U.S. Census Monitoring Board report, Exh.
7 NYS000213, provides estimated undercount rates for the states in 8
the region surrounding IPEC that range from 0.52% to 4.49%.
9 Averaging the rates and rounding to the nearest percent gives 3%
10 as a reasonable average percentage undercount. Assuming no 11 undercount of the white population and applying this 3%
12 undercount rate to the 2000 census figures for non-white 13 population results in an overall estimated undercount of 1.11%
14 in the IPEC region, slightly less than the 1.18% undercount 15 estimated for the entire US.
16 In general, the growth rate of minority populations is 17 somewhat faster than the growth rate of the population as a 18 whole, but I conservatively assume that the growth rate from 19 2000 to 2035 for the uncounted minority population will be the 20 same as that for the population as a whole in each county.
21 Applying this growth rate and taking the share of land area in 22 each county that is within 50 miles of IPEC (equivalent to 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 13 assuming that the undercounted population in each county is 1
uniformly distributed over the county) as the share of required 2
county adjustment provides the adjustment for census undercount 3
for each county.
4 Q.
What is the effect of census undercount on Entergys 5
population estimate?
6 A.
Following the method outlined in the previous answer, 7
my calculations indicate that census undercount caused Entergy 8
to underestimate the 2035 population by 231,632 persons.
9 Q.
In your opinion, is an estimate that takes census 10 undercount into consideration superior to an estimate that does 11 not?
12 A.
Yes, in my professional opinion, an estimate that 13 takes census undercount into consideration is superior because 14 it is more accurate than an estimate that does not take it into 15 account, and provides a more accurate account of the total 16 population within a given area.
17 Q.
You explained that another clear deficiency of 18 Entergys population estimate was the failure to include 19 commuters. Can you explain how accounting for commuters affects 20 Entergys population estimate?
21 A.
The census data relied on by Entergy includes only the 22 number of permanent residents in the 50 mile radius of IPEC, 23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 14 which is why Entergy had to adjust the number to account for the 1
transient population. However, in accounting for the transient 2
population, Entergy counted only tourists and business 3
travelers, not commuters. Commuters should be included in the 4
transient population because they enter and remain within the 50 5
mile radius of IPEC on a daily basis, and are therefore just as 6
at risk in the event of a severe accident as are permanent 7
residents, tourists, and business travelers. When commuters are 8
included, the population within the 50 mile radius of IPEC 9
increases substantially.
10 Q.
Is it possible to precisely estimate the number of 11 commuters to the region within 50 miles of Indian Point?
12 A.
Yes, it is possible to estimate the number of 13 commuters using Census Bureau data on county-to-county commuter 14 flows from 2000, Exh. NYS000215.
15 Q.
How would the Census Bureau data be used to calculate 16 the commuter population for the 50 mile radius of IPEC?
17 A.
For each county that is 100 percent within the 50 mile 18 radius of IPEC: (1) take 100 percent of the average daily 19 commuter flows into that county that come from counties that are 20 completely outside of the 50 mile boundary; and (2) take 100-S 21 percent of the average daily commuter flows into that county 22
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 15 that come from counties that have S percent of their area within 1
the 50 mile boundary.
2 For each county that is partially within the 50 mile 3
radius, where P percent is the percentage of land area in the 4
county located within 50 miles of IPEC: (1) take P percent of 5
the average daily commuter flows into that county that come from 6
counties that are completely outside the 50 mile radius; and (2) 7 take P times (100-S) percent of the average daily commuter flows 8
into that county that come from counties that have S percent of 9
their area within the 50 mile boundary.
10 These calculations assume that employment locations are 11 distributed evenly over the entire land area of each county.
12 This procedure estimates the 2000 commuter population into that 13 portion of each county that is within 50 miles of IPEC.
14 To get the 2035 commuter population, take the county 15 population growth rates from 2000 to 2035 used in Entergys SAMA 16 report as a conservative estimate of growth in county 17 employment, and apply those growth rates to total commuter 18 population for each county.
19 Q.
How many commuters will enter the region on an average 20 day in 2035?
21
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 16 A.
Following the procedure outlined above, my 1
calculations estimate that 995,778 commuters will enter the 2
region on an average day in 2035.
3 Q.
If census undercount and commuters are taken into 4
account, what will be the 2035 population in the counties 5
surrounding Indian Point?
6 A.
Accounting for census undercount and including 7
commuters, the 2035 population within a 50 mile radius of IPEC 8
will be 20,456,285 persons.
9 Q.
How does this estimate compare to Entergys estimate?
10 A.
Entergys 2035 population estimate by county (as 11 opposed to spatial element) was 19,228,875 persons. This is a 12 difference of 1,227,410 persons or 6.38 percent. It is also a 13 difference of 6.38 percent compared to the spatial element 14 population estimate of 19,228,712 persons, used by Entergy in 15 the 2009 SAMA analysis and 2009 SAMA reanalysis. The 163 person 16 discrepancy does not affect the percentage because 163 is only 17
.00085 percent of 19.2 million.
18 Q.
Have you reviewed Staffs evaluation of Entergys 19 estimate?
20 A.
Yes, I have reviewed NRC Staffs evaluation contained 21 in the 2010 FSEIS Appendix G on pages G-24 and G-25, Exh.
22 NYS00133I.
23
Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16/16A/16B 17 Q.
What did Staff conclude?
1 A.
Staff concluded that Entergys population data and 2
projected population growth analysis provide reasonable (and 3
slightly conservative) population values for its SAMA analysis.
4 Q.
Did Staff address Entergys failure to consider census 5
undercount or its exclusion of commuters from its population 6
estimate?
7 A.
No, Staff did not address these issues.
8 Q.
In your opinion, is a population estimate and 9
projection that does not factor in census undercount and that 10 excludes commuters a reasonable one?
11 A.
In my professional opinion, a population estimate or 12 projection that does not account for census undercount or that 13 excludes commuters is deficient. These deficiencies cause the 14 population estimate to be inaccurate. Underestimating the 2035 15 population by approximately 1.2 million persons is not a 16 reasonable estimate.
17 Q.
Does this conclude your testimony?
18 A.
Yes.
19
1 UNITED STATES 2
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 3
BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD 4
x 5
Docket Nos. 50-247-LR; 50- 286-LR In re:
License Renewal Application Submitted by Entergy Nuclear Indian Point 2, LLC, 7
Entergy Nuclear Indian Point 3, LLC, and Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
10 -----------------------------------x 11 DECLARATION OF STEPHEN C. SHEPPARD 12 I, Stephen Sheppard, do hereby declare under penalty of 13 perjury that my statements in the foregoing testimony and my 14 statement of professional qualifications are true and correct to 15 the best of my knowledge and belief.
16 Executed in Accord with 10 C.F.R. § 2.304(d)
Stephen C.
Professor of conomics 24 Hopkins Hall Drive Williamstown, MA 10267 (413) 597 - 3184 stephen. c.sheppard@williams.edu December 16, 2011 Pre-filed Written Testimony of Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Ph.D.
Contention NYS-16116A/16B 18