ML12200A096

Development of Evacuation Time Estimates

ML12200A096
Person / Time
Site:	Callaway
Issue date:	06/27/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Ameren Missouri, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
ULNRC05881 KLD TR-492, Rev 1
Download: ML12200A096 (419)

Text

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 CallawayPlant



DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimates











WorkperformedforAmerenMissouri,by:

 

KLDEngineering,P.C.

43CorporateDrive

Hauppauge,NY11788

mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com

June,2012 FinalReport,Rev.1 KLDTR-492

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 TableofContents

1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... ...11

1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................11

1.2 TheCallawayPlantLocation......................................................................................................13

1.3 PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................15

1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................19

2 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................21

2.1 DataEstimates........................................................................................................................... 21

2.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................22

2.3 StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................25

3 DEMANDESTIMATION....................................................................................................................... 31

3.1 PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................32

3.2 ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................37

3.3 TransientPopulation..................................................................................................................37

3.4 Employees............................................................................................................................... .312

3.5 MedicalFacilities...................................................................................................................... 316

3.6 CollegesandUniversities.........................................................................................................316

3.7 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................317

3.8 SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................ 319

3.9 SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................320

4 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................41

4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................42

4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................44

4.3 ApplicationtotheCallawayPlantStudyArea...........................................................................46

4.3.1 TwoLaneRoads.................................................................................................................46

4.3.2 MultiLaneHighway...........................................................................................................46

4.3.3 Freeways............................................................................................................................ 47

4.3.4 Intersections...................................................................................................................... 48

4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................48

5 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................51

5.1 Background............................................................................................................................... .51

5.2 FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................53

5.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................56

5.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................512

5.4.1 StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................513

5.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................517

6 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................61

7 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................71

7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................71

7.2 StagedEvacuation...................................................................................................................... 71

7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................72



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 7.4 EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................ 73

7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................74

7.6 StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................75

7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................75

8 TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................81

8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................82

8.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................84

8.3 SpecialFacilityDemand.............................................................................................................84

8.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................84

8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................810

8.6 CorrectionalFacilities...............................................................................................................812

8.7 OtherSpecialFacilities.............................................................................................................812

9 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................91

10 EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................101

11 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................111

12 CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................121

A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A1

B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B1

C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C1

C.1 Methodology.............................................................................................................................. C5

C.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C5

C.1.2 TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C5

C.1.3 LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C13

C.2 Implementation....................................................................................................................... C13

C.2.1 ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C13

C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C16

D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D1

E. SPECIALFACILITYDATA...................................................................................................................... E1

F. TELEPHONESURVEY........................................................................................................................... F1

F.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... F1

F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F2

F.3 SurveyResults............................................................................................................................ F3

F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F3

F.3.2 EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F8

F.3.3 TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F10

F.4 Conclusions.............................................................................................................................. F13

G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G1

G.1 TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G1

G.2 AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G1



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 H EVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H1

J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J1

K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K1

L. SUBAREABOUNDARIES...................................................................................................................... L1

M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M1

M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M1

M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleIntheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M2

M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M3

M.4 NewUnitsandProposedRoadwaysSensitivityAnalysis.........................................................M5

N. ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N1



Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped 



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 ListofFigures

Figure11.CallawayPlantLocation..........................................................................................................14

Figure12.CallawayPlantLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................17

Figure21.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................24

Figure31.CallawayPlantEPZ..................................................................................................................33

Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................35

Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................36

Figure34.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................310

Figure35.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................311

Figure36.EmployeePopulationbySector............................................................................................314

Figure37.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................315

Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................410

Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................55

Figure52.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................511

Figure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................515

Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................519

Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5Mile

Region............................................................................................................................... .......................521

Figure61.CallawayPlantEPZSubareas..................................................................................................64

Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................713

Figure72.CallawayPlantShadowRegion.............................................................................................714

Figure73.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................715

Figure74.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................716

Figure75.CongestionPatternsat1Hourand45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..................717

Figure76.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................718

Figure77.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario1forRegionR03......................................................719

Figure78.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario2forRegionR03......................................................719

Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario3forRegionR03......................................................720

Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario4forRegionR03....................................................720

Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario5forRegionR03....................................................721

Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario6forRegionR03....................................................721

Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario7forRegionR03....................................................722

Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario8forRegionR03....................................................722

Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario9forRegionR03....................................................723

Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario10forRegionR03..................................................723

Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario11forRegionR03..................................................724

Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario12forRegionR03..................................................724

Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario13forRegionR03..................................................725

Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario14forRegionR03..................................................725

Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................813

Figure82.TransitDependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................814

Figure101.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters............................................................102

Figure102.EvacuationRouteMap........................................................................................................103

FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface........................................................................B5

FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C4

FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C6



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0..............................................................................C7

FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)....................................................C15

FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D5

FigureE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ............................................................................................................E6

FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F4

FigureF2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F4

FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F5

FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F5

FigureF5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F6

FigureF6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F7

FigureF7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F8

FigureF8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F9

FigureF9.PercentofHouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets..........................................................................F9

FigureF10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F10

FigureF11.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F11

FigureF12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F12

FigureF13.TimetoClearDrivewayof6"8"ofSnow...........................................................................F13

FigureG1.TrafficControlPointsfortheCallawayPlant........................................................................G3

FigureG2.SchematicoftheTCPatI70WestboundExit48...................................................................G4

FigureG3.SchematicoftheTCPatI70EastboundExit48....................................................................G5

FigureG4.SchematicoftheTCPatI70WestboundRampsandUS54.................................................G6

FigureG5.SchematicoftheTCPatI70EastboundRampsandUS54...................................................G7

FigureH1RegionR01............................................................................................................................... H4

FigureH2RegionR02............................................................................................................................... H5

FigureH3RegionR03............................................................................................................................... H6

FigureH4RegionR04............................................................................................................................... H7

FigureH5RegionR05............................................................................................................................... H8

FigureH6RegionR06............................................................................................................................... H9

FigureH7RegionR07............................................................................................................................. H10

FigureH8RegionR08............................................................................................................................. H11

FigureH9RegionR09............................................................................................................................. H12

FigureH10RegionR10........................................................................................................................... H13

FigureH11RegionR11........................................................................................................................... H14

FigureH12RegionR12........................................................................................................................... H15

FigureH13RegionR13........................................................................................................................... H16

FigureH14RegionR14........................................................................................................................... H17

FigureH15RegionR15........................................................................................................................... H18

FigureH16RegionR16........................................................................................................................... H19

FigureH17RegionR17........................................................................................................................... H20

FigureH18RegionR18........................................................................................................................... H21

FigureH19RegionR19........................................................................................................................... H22

FigureH20RegionR20........................................................................................................................... H23

FigureH21RegionR21........................................................................................................................... H24

FigureH22RegionR22........................................................................................................................... H25

FigureH23RegionR23........................................................................................................................... H26

FigureH24RegionR24........................................................................................................................... H27

FigureH25RegionR25........................................................................................................................... H28



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 FigureH26RegionR26........................................................................................................................... H29

FigureH27RegionR27........................................................................................................................... H30

FigureH28RegionR28........................................................................................................................... H31

FigureJ1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J6

FigureJ2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J6

FigureJ3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J7

FigureJ4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J7

FigureJ5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather

(Scenario5)............................................................................................................................... .................J8

FigureJ6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)................J8

FigureJ7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7).................................J9

FigureJ8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)...............................J9

FigureJ9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J10

FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J10

FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11).........................J11

FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather

(Scenario12)............................................................................................................................... .............J11

FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent

(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................... .............J12

FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact

(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................... .............J12

FigureK1CallawayLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork......................................................................................K2

FigureK2LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.......................................................................................K3

FigureK3LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.......................................................................................K4

FigureK4LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.......................................................................................K5

FigureK5LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.......................................................................................K6

FigureK6LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.......................................................................................K7

FigureK7LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.......................................................................................K8

FigureK8LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.......................................................................................K9

FigureK9LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8.....................................................................................K10

FigureK10LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9...................................................................................K11

FigureK11LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10.................................................................................K12

FigureK12LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11.................................................................................K13

FigureK13LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12.................................................................................K14

FigureK14LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13.................................................................................K15

FigureK15LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14.................................................................................K16

FigureK16LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15.................................................................................K17

FigureK17LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16.................................................................................K18

FigureK18LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17.................................................................................K19

FigureK19LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18.................................................................................K20

FigureK20LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19.................................................................................K21

FigureK21LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20.................................................................................K22

FigureK22LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21.................................................................................K23

FigureK23LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22..................................................................................K24

FigureK24LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23.................................................................................K25

FigureK25LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24.................................................................................K26

FigureK26LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25.................................................................................K27



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 FigureK27LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26.................................................................................K28

FigureK28LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27.................................................................................K29

FigureK29LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28.................................................................................K30

FigureK30LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29.................................................................................K31

FigureK31LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30.................................................................................K32

FigureK32LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31.................................................................................K33

FigureK33LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32.................................................................................K34

FigureK34LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33.................................................................................K35

FigureK35LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34.................................................................................K36

FigureK36LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35.................................................................................K37

FigureK37LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36.................................................................................K38

FigureK38LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37.................................................................................K39

FigureK39LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38.................................................................................K40

FigureK40LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39.................................................................................K41

FigureK41LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40.................................................................................K42

FigureK42LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41.................................................................................K43

FigureM1.ProposedRoadways1and2...............................................................................................M5





 



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 ListofTables

Table11.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................11

Table12.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................15

Table13.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................19

Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................23

Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................27

Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................34

Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubarea......................................................34

Table33.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................37

Table34.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.......................................................................39

Table35.SummaryofNonEPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................313

Table36.CallawayPlantEPZExternalTraffic........................................................................................318

Table37.PopulationGrowthforConstructionScenario........................................................................319

Table38.SummaryofPopulationDemand............................................................................................320

Table39.SummaryofVehicleDemand..................................................................................................321

Table51.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................53

Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................56

Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................57

Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................58

Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................59

Table56.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6"8"ofSnow......................................................510

Table57.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................512

Table58.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................513

Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................520

Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.......................522

Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................63

Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................65

Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................66

Table64.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................67

Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................78

Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................79

Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion........................710

Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion......................711

Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................712

Table81.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................815

Table82.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................816

Table83.SchoolReceptionCenters......................................................................................................817

Table84.SpecialFacilityTransitDemand.............................................................................................818

Table85.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................819

Table86.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................820

Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................821

Table88.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain..............................................................................822

Table89.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Snow............................................................................823

Table810.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................824

Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................824

Table812.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain........................................................825



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-Snow.......................................................826

Table121.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............122

TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A1

TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C2

TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C3

TableC3.Glossary............................................................................................................................... .....C8

TableE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E2

TableE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E3

TableE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E3

TableE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E4

TableE5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E5

TableE6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ.......................................................................................E5

TableF1.CallawayPlantEPZTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan..............................................................F2

TableH1.PercentofSubareaPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion..................................................H2

TableJ1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J2

TableJ2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J3

TableJ3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J4

TableJ4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,

Scenario1)............................................................................................................................... ..................J4

TableJ5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J5

TableK1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K44

TableK2.NodesintheLinkNodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K103

TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M1

TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M2

TableM3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M4

TableM4.ConstructionScenariosSensitivityAnalysis...........................................................................M6

TableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N1













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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY



Thisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelop

EvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheCallawayPlantlocatedinReform,MO.ETEarepartof

therequiredplanningbasisandprovideAmerenMissouriandStateandlocalgovernmentswith

sitespecificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecisionmaking.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal

Governmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:

x Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR7002,

December2011.

x Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and

Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG0654/FEMAREP1, Rev. 1,

November1980.

x DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR6863,

January2005.

x 10CFR50, Appendix E - Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and

UtilizationFacilities

OverviewofProjectActivities

ThisprojectbeganinJuly,2011andextendedoveraperiodof7months.Themajoractivities

performedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence:

x Attended kickoff meetings with Ameren Missouri personnel and emergency

managementpersonnelrepresentingcountygovernments.

x Accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the year 2010.  Studied Geographical

Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of the Callaway Plant, then

conductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork.

x Synthesized this information to create an analysis network representing the highway

system topology and capacities within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus a

Shadow Region covering the region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15

milesradiallyfromtheplant.

x Designed and sponsored a telephone survey of residents within the EPZ to gather

focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census

database.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsite

responseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey.

x Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwith

data pertaining to employment, transients, and special facilities in each county.

Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided.

x The traffic demand and tripgeneration rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



fromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilization

time(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computed

usingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.

x Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto15subareas.Thesesubareasare

then grouped within circular areas or keyhole configurations (circles plus radial

sectors)thatdefineatotalof28EvacuationRegions.

x ThetimevaryingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,each

described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of

Week(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,

Rain, Snow).  One special event scenario involving construction of new nuclear

generating facilities at the Callaway Plant site was considered. One roadway impact

scenario was considered wherein a single lane was closed on Interstate 70 for the

durationoftheevacuation.

x Staged evacuation was considered for those regions wherein the 2 mile radius and

sectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated.

x AsperNUREG/CR7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis:

A rapidly escalating accident at the Callaway Plant that quickly assumes the

status of General Emergency such that the Advisory to Evacuate is virtually

coincident with the siren alert, and no early protective actions have been

implemented.

Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measured

astheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntiltheastatedpercentage

of the population exits the impacted Region, that represent upper bound

estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents.

x If the emergency occurs while schools are in session, the ETE study assumes that the

childrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncenterslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.

Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolprior

tothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenare

calculatedseparately.

x Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either rideshare with

relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the

county evacuation plans.  Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated with

public transit, as needed: bus, van, or ambulance, as required.  Separate ETE are

calculated for the transitdependent evacuees, for homebound special needs

population,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.

ComputationofETE

Atotalof392ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifies

the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 28 Evacuation

Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14



CallawayPlant ES2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Evacuation Scenarios (28 x 14 = 392).  Separate ETE are calculated for transitdependent

evacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.

ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeople

withintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlyto

thosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthe

people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this Advisory.  The people

occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take

shelter.

The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside the

impactedregionwillelecttovoluntarilyevacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationinthe

ShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewho

are evacuating from within the impacted region.  The impedance that could be caused by

voluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.

Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2mile region evacuate

immediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelterinplace.Once90%ofthe

2mile region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate. As per federal

guidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillevacuate(noncompliance)eventhoughtheyare

advisedtoshelterinplace.

Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows:

x A linknode representation of the highway network is coded.  Each link represents a

unidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormerge

point.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsand

onestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures.

x Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalledzonalcentroidslocatedwithin

the EPZ and Shadow Region.  The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the

mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on

populationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea.

x The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are

compliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),and

thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocess

estimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.



TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthe

population within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region.  These

statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats. The 90th percentile ETE have been

identified as the value that should be considered when making protective action decisions

becausethe100thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelonger

tomobilize.ThisisreferredtoastheevacuationtailinSection4.0ofNUREG/CR7002.

The use of a public outreach (information) program to emphasize the need for evacuees to

minimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,assembleneededclothes,



CallawayPlant ES3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.

TrafficManagement

This study references the comprehensive traffic management plans provided by Callaway,

Gasconade,MontgomeryandOsageCounties,andidentifiescriticalintersections.

SelectedResults

A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of

FiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow.

x Figure 61 displays a map of the Callaway Plant EPZ showing the layout of the 15

subareasthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ.

x Table 31 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each subarea

basedonthe2010Censusdata.

x Table61defineseachofthe28EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroups

ofsubarea.

x Table62liststheEvacuationScenarios.

x Tables71and72arecompilationsofETE.Thesedataarethetimesneededtoclear

theindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,

respectively.  These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of

estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the

ShadowRegion.

x Tables 73 and 74 present ETE for the 2mile region for unstaged and staged

evacuationsforthe90thand100thpercentiles,respectively.

x Table87presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather.

x Table811presentsETEforthetransitdependentpopulationingoodweather.

x FigureH8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuated

under the circumstances defined in Table 61.  Maps of all regions are provided in

AppendixH.



Conclusions

x General population ETE were computed for 392 unique cases - a combination of 28

uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table71andTable72

document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles. These ETE range from 1:15

(hr:min)to2:55atthe90thpercentile.

x InspectionofTable71andTable72indicatesthattheETEforthe100thpercentileare

significantlylongerthanthoseforthe90thpercentile.Thisistheresultofthecongestion

within the EPZ. When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates

somewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutes

clear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.

Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremaining

demand.SeeFigures76through719.

x Inspection of Table 73 and Table 74 indicates that a staged evacuation provides no



CallawayPlant ES4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



benefits to evacuees from within the 2 mile region and unnecessarily delays the

evacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02,andR04throughR09with

RegionsR28,andR22throughR27,respectively,inTables71and72).SeeSection7.6

foradditionaldiscussion.

x ComparisonofScenarios6(winter,midweek,midday,good)and13(winter,midweek,

midday,good)inTable72indicatesthatthespecialeventdoesnotmateriallyaffectthe

ETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion.

x ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable71indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-one

laneonI70-doesnotaffecttheETE.

x FultonisthemostcongestedareaduringanevacuationandthelastlocationintheEPZ

to exhibit traffic congestion is US54 northbound, just north of Fulton.  All congestion

within the EPZ clears by 1 hour and 45 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate. See

Section7.3andFigures73through78.

x SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transitdependentpersons,

homebound special needs persons and correctional facilities. The average singlewave

ETE for these facilities are within a similar range as the general population ETE at the

90thpercentile.SeeSection8.

x Table 85 indicates that there is enough transportation available to evacuate special

facilitiesinasinglewave;however,thetransitdependentpopulationrequiresasecond

waveevacuation.ThesecondwaveETEforexceedsthegeneralpopulationETEatthe

90thpercentile.SeeSections8.4and8.5.

x ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90thpercentileisrelativelyinsensitivetoreductionsin

thebasetripgenerationtimeof4hoursduetothelackoftrafficcongestionthroughout

themajorityoftheEPZ.SeeTableM1.

x ThegeneralpopulationETEisinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesinthe

ShadowRegion.SeeTableM2.

x Populationchangesbetween+/-30%donotresultinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriteria

forupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

x A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE from the potential

constructionoftwolargenewunits,Units2and3attheCallawayPlantsite,andtwo

proposedroadways(toassistintrafficgeneratedbyanincreaseofconstructionworkers

atthenewunits).Becausetheexistingroadwaynetworkhassufficientreservecapacity,

theproposedroadwayshavelittleeffectonETE.SeeSectionM.4.



CallawayPlant ES5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure61.EPZSubareas



CallawayPlant ES6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation

Subarea 2000Population 2010Population

C1 78 90 C2 363 363 C3 339 441 C4 322 264 C5 72 86 C6 451 492 C7 1,279 1,406 C8 2,462 2,493 C9 11,723 12,112 C10 417 544 C11 258 239 G1 102 107 M1 209 181 M2 555 496 O1 996 859 TOTAL 19,626 20,173 EPZPopulationGrowth: 2.79%

 



CallawayPlant ES7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions

BasicRegions

Subarea

Region Description C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R01 2MileRadius X              

R02 5MileRadius X X X X X X         

R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R04 N,NNE,NE X    X X         

R05 ENE,E,ESE, X X    X         

R06 SE,SSE,S X X X            

R07 SSW,SW,WSW X  X X           

R08 W X   X           

R09 WNW,NW,NNW X   X X          

Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R10 N X X X X X X         X

R11 NNE,NE X X X X X X X        X

R12 ENE X X X X X X X X       

R13 E,ESE X X X X X X X X X      

R14 SE,SSE X X X X X X  X X X     

R15 S X X X X X X  X  X X    

R16 SSW,SW X X X X X X    X X  X  

R17 WSW X X X X X X     X  X X 

R18 W X X X X X X     X X X X 

R19 WNW X X X X X X      X X X X

R20 NW X X X X X X      X  X X

R21 NNW X X X X X X      X   X

StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R22 N,NNE,NE X    X X         

R23 ENE,E,ESE X X    X         

R24 SE,SSE,S X X X            

R25 SSW,SW,WSW X  X X           

R26 W X   X           

R27 WNW,NW,NNW X   X X          

R28 NoWind X X X X X X         

Key

Subarea(s)Evacuate Subarea(s)ShelterinPlace ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate





 



CallawayPlant ES8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions

Dayof Timeof

Scenario Season1 Week Day Weather Special

1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None

2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None

3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None

4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None

Midweek,

5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None

6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None

7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None

8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None

9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None

10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None

11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None

Midweek,

12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None

Constructionofnewunits

13 Winter Midweek Midday Good attheCallawaysite

RoadwayImpact-Lane

14 Summer Midweek Midday Good ClosureonI70Outbound



1

Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnot

insession.





CallawayPlant ES9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer

 Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday

Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Construction Roadway Rain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ

R01 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:10 1:15

R02 1:55 1:55 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:50 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:30 1:55

R03 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:00 2:00 2:30 1:55 2:00 2:10

2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:40 1:40 2:50 1:40 1:25 1:45

R05 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:25 1:45

R06 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:40 1:45 1:45 2:50 1:45 1:20 1:45

R07 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:50 1:45 1:20 1:45

R08 1:35 1:35 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:40 1:40 2:40 1:40 1:15 1:35

R09 1:35 1:40 1:35 1:40 1:35 1:35 1:40 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:40 1:35 1:15 1:35

5MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary

R10 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:55 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:35 2:00

R11 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 3:00 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:45 2:00

R12 2:00 2:00 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:45 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:50 2:00

R13 2:00 2:00 1:50 1:55 1:50 2:00 2:05 2:55 1:55 1:55 2:45 1:50 1:55 2:00

R14 2:00 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:25 1:55 1:55 2:25 1:55 1:55 2:05

R15 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 1:55 2:00

R16 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:15 2:00 1:55 2:00

R17 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 1:55 2:00

R18 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 1:55 2:00

R19 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:00

R20 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:50 1:45 2:00 2:00 3:00 1:45 1:50 2:55 1:45 1:40 2:00

R21 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:55 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:35 2:00

StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R22 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:45 1:45 2:50 1:45 1:30 1:45

R23 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:35 1:50

R24 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:40 1:45 1:50 2:55 1:45 1:35 1:45

R25 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:35 1:50 1:50 2:55 1:50 1:30 1:50

R26 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:50 2:50 1:45 1:20 1:45

R27 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:15 1:45 1:50 2:50 1:45 1:25 1:45

R28 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:50 1:50 1:50 2:55 1:50 1:40 1:55



CallawayPlant ES10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer

 Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday

Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Construction Roadway Rain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ

R01 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R02 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R03 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:15

2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R06 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R07 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R08 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R09 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

5MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary

R10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R11 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R12 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R13 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R14 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R15 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R16 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R17 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R18 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R19 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R20 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R21 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R22 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R23 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R24 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R25 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R26 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R27 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R28 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05



CallawayPlant ES11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileRegion

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer



Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Region Midday  Midday  Evening Midday  

 Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Construction Roadway

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegionand5MileRegion

R01 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:10 1:15 R02 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:30 1:10 1:15 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:25 1:15 R05 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:25 1:15 R06 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 R07 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 R08 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 R09 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 StagedEvacuation 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R22 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R23 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R24 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R26 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R27 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R28 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15



 



CallawayPlant ES12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileRegion

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer

 Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Construction Roadway Rain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegionand5MileRegion

R01 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R02 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R06 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R07 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R08 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R09 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 StagedEvacuation 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R22 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R23 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R24 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R25 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R26 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R27 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 R28 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00



 



CallawayPlant ES13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather

to ULNRC-05881 Travel

Time

Travel from

Dist.To Timeto Dist.EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.C. R.C. R.C.

School Time (min) (mi.) (mph) (min.) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

CALLAWAYCOUNTYSCHOOLS

BartleyElementarySchool 90 15 1.5 40.8 3 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

BushElementarySchool 90 15 2.4 31.3 5 1:50 22.6 31 2:25

FultonHighSchool 90 15 1.6 43.5 3 1:50 26.1 35 2:25

FultonMiddleSchool 90 15 2.1 35.6 4 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

KingdomChristianAcademy 90 15 2.1 34.9 4 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

McIntireElementarySchool 90 15 1.0 45.0 2 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

MissouriSchoolfortheDeaf 90 15 1.7 31.1 4 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

SouthCallawayElementarySchool 90 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:55 17.7 24 2:20

SouthCallawayHighSchool 90 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:55 17.7 24 2:20

SouthCallawayMiddleSchool 90 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:55 17.7 24 2:20

St.PeterCatholicSchool 90 15 3.0 33.3 6 1:55 26.1 35 2:30

WestminsterCollege 90 15 1.1 45.0 2 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

WilliamWoodsUniversity 90 15 3.0 36.3 5 1:50 26.1 35 2:25

OSAGECOUNTYSCHOOLS

OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict 30 5 9.1 45.0 13 0:50 30.0 40 1:30

MaximumforEPZ: 1:55 Maximum: 2:30

AverageforEPZ: 1:50 Average: 2:20



 



CallawayPlant ES14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather

to ULNRC-05881 OneWave  TwoWave Route Bus Dist.EPZ

Route Travel Route

Length Speed Pickup Bdryto Driver Pickup

Number Number Mobilization Travel ETE Timeto Unload Travel ETE

(miles) (mph) Time R.C. Rest Time

Time (miles) Rec.Ctr Time

1 90 14.0 45.0 19 30 2:20 17.7 24 5 10 42 30 4:10

1

2 110 14.0 45.0 19 30 2:40 17.7 24 5 10 42 30 4:30

1 90 12.5 40.6 18 30 2:20 22.6 30 5 10 48 30 4:25

2

2 110 12.5 40.3 19 30 2:40 22.6 30 5 10 49 30 4:45

1 90 11.2 42.7 16 30 2:20 26.1 35 5 10 50 30 4:30

3

2 110 11.2 42.5 16 30 2:40 26.1 35 5 10 51 30 4:50

1 90 4.8 30.8 9 30 2:10 26.1 35 5 10 44 30 4:15

4

2 110 4.8 31.7 9 30 2:30 26.1 35 5 10 44 30 4:35

1 90 10.0 45.0 13 30 2:15 11.0 15 5 10 31 30 3:45

5

2 110 10.0 45.0 13 30 2:35 11.0 15 5 10 28 31 4:05

MaximumETE: 2:40 MaximumETE: 4:50

AverageETE: 2:30 AverageETE: 4:25



 



CallawayPlant ES15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH8.RegionR08



CallawayPlant ES16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 1 INTRODUCTION

Thisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelop

EvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheCallawayPlant,located10milessoutheastofFulton,

MO.  ETE provide State and local governments with sitespecific information needed for

ProtectiveActiondecisionmaking.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal

Governmentagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:

• Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR7002,

December2011.

• Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans

and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/FEMA REP 1,

Rev.1,November1980. 

• Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning

Zones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.

• Development of Evacuation Time Estimates for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.

The work effort reported herein was supported and guided by local stakeholders who

contributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table11presentsa

summaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.

Table11.StakeholderInteraction

Stakeholder NatureofStakeholderInteraction

Meetings to define data requirements and set up

Amerenemergencyplanningpersonnel

contactswithlocalgovernmentagencies

Callaway, Gasconade, Montgomery, and Osage Obtain existing traffic management plans and

County Emergency Management Departments specialfacilitydata

(EMD)

Missouri State Emergency Management Obtain County Implementing Procedures and

Department RadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlans



1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcess

Thefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:

1. InformationGathering:

a. Defined the scope of work in discussions with representatives from Ameren

Missouri.

b. Attended meetings with emergency planners from Callaway Plant, Callaway



CallawayPlant 11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 County EMD, Gasconade County EMD, Montgomery County EMD, and Osage

CountyEMDtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.

c. Conducted a detailed field survey of the highway system and of area traffic

conditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.

d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromcensus,stateandlocalagencies.

e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.

f. Conducted a data collection effort to identify and describe schools, special

facilities, major employers, transportation providers, and other important

information.

2. Estimated distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required by

variouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare

(mobilize) for the evacuation trip.  These estimates are primarily based upon the

randomsampletelephonesurvey.

3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intrip

generationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,day

ofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.

4. Reviewed the existing traffic management plan to be implemented by local and state

police in the event of an incident at the plant. Traffic control is applied at specified

TrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.

5. Used existing subareas to define Evacuation Regions. The EPZ is partitioned into 15

subareas along jurisdictional and geographic boundaries.  Regions are groups of

contiguoussubareasforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegions

reflect wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area.  Each Region, other

than those that approximate circular areas, approximates a keyhole section within

theEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR7002.

6. EstimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsatSpecialFacilitiesandfortransit dependentpersonsathome.

7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.

a. Estimated the evacuation traffic demand, based on the available information

derivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,

Amerenandfromthetelephonesurvey.

b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM1)

to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all

highwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.

c. Developed the linknode representation of the evacuation network, which is



1

HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.



CallawayPlant 12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 usedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.

d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.

e. Specified selected candidate destinations for each origin (location of each

source where evacuation trips are generated over the mobilization time) to

support evacuation travel consistent with outbound movement relative to the

locationoftheCallawayPlant.

8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltoprovidetheestimatesofevacuationroutingandETEfor

all residents, transients and employees (general population) with access to private

vehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.

9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002.

10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,

medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransitdependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecial

needspopulation.

1.2 TheCallawayPlantLocation

The Callaway Plant is about 5 miles north of the Missouri River and 10 miles southeast of

Fulton. The site is approximately 25 miles northeast of Jefferson City, 30 miles southeast of

Columbia, and 80 miles west of St. Louis. The EPZ consists of parts of Callaway, Gasconade,

Montgomery, and Osage Counties in Missouri.  Figure 11 displays the area surrounding the

CallawayPlant.Thismapidentifiesthecitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.





CallawayPlant 13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure11.CallawayPlantLocation



CallawayPlant 14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 1.3 PreliminaryActivities

Theseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.

FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetwork

KLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhich

consists of the area between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 milesradially from the

plant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.Thesecharacteristicsare

showninTable12:

Table12.HighwayCharacteristics

x Numberoflanes x Postedspeed

x Lanewidth x Actualfreespeed

x Shouldertype&width x Abuttinglanduse

x Interchangegeometries x Controldevices

x Lanechannelization&queuing x Intersectionconfiguration(including

capacity(includingturnbays/lanes) roundaboutswhereapplicable)

x Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) x Trafficsignaltype

x Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarning

signs,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.



Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighway

infrastructure. No attempt was made to meticulously measure such attributes as lane width

and shoulder width; estimates of these measures based on visual observation and recorded

images were considered appropriate for the purpose of estimating the capacity of highway

sections.Forexample,Exhibit157intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12

feet(thebasevalue)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterial

difference - for twolane highways. Exhibit 1530 in the HCM shows little sensitivity for the

estimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,for

twolanehighways.

The data from the audio and video recordings were used to create detailed geographical

information systems (GIS) shapefiles and databases of the roadway characteristics and of the

trafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhile

preparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.

As documented on page 155 of the HCM 2010, the capacity of a twolane highway is 1700

passenger cars per hour in one direction.  For freeway sections, a value of 2250 vehicles per

hourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit1117oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentified

severalsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwolanehighwayswhich

are reflected in reduced values for both capacity and speed. These estimates are consistent

with the service volumes for LOS E presented in HCM Exhibit 1530.  These links may be

identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputesthe



CallawayPlant 15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 ETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.

Trafficsignalsareeitherpretimed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewith

the traffic volume on competing approaches), or are actuated (signal timings vary over time

based on the changing traffic volumes on competing approaches). Actuated signals require

detectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.

Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthe

signal masts and pointed toward the intersection approaches. If detectors were observed on

theapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswere

not collected as the timings vary with traffic volume. TCPs at locations which have control

devicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.

Ifnodetectorswereobserved,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpretimed,

and detailed signal timings were gathered for several signal cycles. These signal timings were

inputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR7002guidance.

Figure 12 presents the linknode analysis network that was constructed to model the

evacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thedirectionalarrowsonthelinks

andthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure12toclarifythefigure.Thedetailed

figuresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanalysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownand

nodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibrate

theanalysisnetwork.

TelephoneSurvey

A telephone survey was undertaken to gather information needed for the evacuation study.

Appendix F presents the survey instrument, the procedures used and tabulations of data

compiledfromthesurveyreturns.

Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberof

evacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateelementsofthemobilizationprocess.

Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransitdependentresidents.

DevelopingtheEvacuationTimeEstimates

TheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfrom

severalsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedinto

vehicle demand data. The vehicle demand was loaded onto appropriate source links of the

analysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocompute

ETEforallRegionsandScenarios.

AnalyticalTools

The DYNEV II System that was employed for this study is comprised of several integrated

computer models. One of these is the DYNEV (DYnamic Network EVacuation) macroscopic

simulation model, a new version of the IDYNEV model that was developed by KLD under

contractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).





CallawayPlant 16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure12.CallawayPlantLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork



CallawayPlant 17 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursubmodels:

x Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC).

x ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesfor

each origin (O) located within the analysis network, where evacuation trips are

generatedovertime.ThisestablishesasetofODtables.

x A Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA), model which assigns trips to paths of travel

(routes)whichsatisfytheODtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegrated

toformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedin

AppendixB.

x AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwhichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,

ifpossible.

Another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES (UNIfied Transportation

EngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutput

tables.

The dynamics of traffic flow over the network are graphically animated using the software

product, EVAN (EVacuation ANimator), developed by KLD. EVAN is GIS based, and displays

statisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,

output by the DYNEV II System. The use of a GIS framework enables the user to zoom in on

areasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.

The procedure for applying the DYNEV II System within the framework of developing ETE is

outlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.

For the reader interested in an evaluation of the original model, IDYNEV, the following

referencesaresuggested:

x NUREG/CR4873 - Benchmark Study of the IDYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate

ComputerCode

x NUREG/CR4874 - The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input

ParametersfortheIDYNEVComputerCode

Theevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto:

x Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective

pointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ.

x Restrict movement toward the plant to the extent practicable, and disperse traffic

demandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways.

x Move traffic in directions that are generally outbound, relative to the location of the

CallawayPlant.

DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.This

description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures that

are designed to represent the behavioral responses of evacuees.  The effects of these



CallawayPlant 18 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 countermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.

1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy

Table 13 presents a comparison of the present ETE study with the 2009 study. The major

factorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthose

ofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows:

x Vehicle occupancy and tripgeneration rates are based on the results of a telephone

surveyofEPZresidents.

x Voluntaryandshadowevacuationsareconsidered.

x Thehighwayrepresentationisfarmoredetailed.

x Dynamicevacuationmodeling.



Table13.ETEStudyComparisons

Topic PreviousETEStudy CurrentETEStudy

ArcGISSoftwareusing2010US

ResidentPopulation 2008USCensusData; Censusblocks;arearatiomethod

Basis Population=20,028 used.

Population=20,173

Used1.470vehiclesavailableper

2.40persons/household,1.35

ResidentPopulation occupiedhousingunit,basedonthe

evacuatingvehicles/household

VehicleOccupancy mostconservativevehicleavailability

yielding:1.78persons/vehicle.

factorinthe4countyregion.

Fortheworkerpopulations,1.3persons

pervehicleisassumedforevacuating Datawasprovidedbyoffsiteagencies

temporaryworkers(constructionand andsupplementedbydatagathered

Employee

outageworkers),and1.0personper inphonecallstomajoremployers.

Population

evacuatingvehicleisassumedfor 1.09employeespervehiclebasedon

regularplantworkers. telephonesurveyresults.

Voluntary

evacuationfrom 20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,

withinEPZinareas Notconsidered. butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion

outsideregiontobe (seeFigure21).

evacuated

20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZ

ShadowEvacuation Notconsidered. withintheShadowRegion

(seeFigure72).

NetworkSize Majorevacuationroutesconsidered. 1,086links;918nodes.

FieldsurveysconductedinJuly,2011.

RoadwayGeometric Thelocation,types,andcapacitiesofthe Roadsandintersectionsarevideo

Data localroadwayswereexamined. archivedandcapacitiesarebasedon

2010HCM.



CallawayPlant 19 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Topic PreviousETEStudy CurrentETEStudy

Directevacuationtodesignated Directevacuationtodesignated

SchoolEvacuation

ReceptionCenter. ReceptionCenter.

Thetrafficdemandforthispopulation

groupisalreadyaccountedforinthe TransitDependentpopulation

TransitDependent

factoringofthegeneralpopulation estimatedusingpopulationestimates

Population

statisticstocalculatethetrafficdemand andresultsoftelephonesurvey.

estimate.

Itisassumedthatmanyofthesepeople 50percentoftransitdependent

Ridesharing wouldbeabletoridewithfriendsor personswillevacuatewithaneighbor

familywhodoownautos. orfriend.

Basedonresidentialtelephone

surveyofspecificpretrip

mobilizationactivities:

Residentswithcommutersreturning

Assumedmobilizationtimeof60 leavebetween40and220minutes.

TripGenerationfor minutesforgeneralpopulation,65

Residentswithoutcommuters

Evacuation minutesforplantworkerfamilies,and

returningleavewithin200minutes.

15minutesfortransients.

Employeesandtransientsleave

within100minutes.

AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisory

toEvacuate.

Normal,Rain,orSnow.Thecapacity

andfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthe

Weather Adverseconditionsconsidered.

networkarereducedby10%inthe

eventofrainand20%forsnow.

Computational

Staticcalculations. DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.0.0

Modeling

Constructionofanewunitatthe

SpecialEvents Notconsidered.

CallawayPlantsite.

28Regions(centralsectorwind

15Subareasplus2mile,5mile,and10 directionandeachadjacentsector

EvacuationCases

milerings. techniqueused)and14Scenarios

producing392uniquecases.

ETEreportedfor90thand100th

percentilepopulation.Results

EvacuationTime Generalvaluefor20populationgroups. presentedbyRegionandScenario.

EstimatesReporting  

ETEfortheentire NormalConditions:3:50 Winter,Midweek,Midday:4:10

EPZ,100thpercentile Adverseconditions:4:33 Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain:4:10







CallawayPlant 110 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



2 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS

This section presents the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of the

evacuationtimeestimates.

2.1 DataEstimates

1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.

2. Estimates of employees who reside outside the EPZ and commute to work within the

EPZarebasedupondataobtainedfromsurveysofmajoremployersintheEPZ.

3. Population estimates at special facilities are based on available data from county

emergencymanagementofficesandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.

4. Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys and the application of the

HighwayCapacityManual2010.

5. Populationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfroma

randomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).

6. The relationship between resident population and evacuating vehicles is developed

from the telephone survey. Average values of 2.40 persons per household and 1.35

evacuating vehicles per household are used.  The relationship between persons and

vehiclesforspecialfacilitiesisasfollows:

a. Employees:1.09employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajor

employers.

b. Parks: Vehicle occupancy varies based upon data gathered from local transient

facilities.

c. SpecialEventScenario:TheconstructionofnewunitsattheCallawayPlantsiteis

consideredwithanestimatedvehicleoccupancyof1.09employeespervehicle,

derivedfromthetelephonesurvey.





CallawayPlant 21 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



2.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions

1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90thand100thpercentilesofpopulationfor

each Region and for each Scenario. The percentile ETE is defined as the elapsed time

fromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoa specificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethat

Regionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupof

subareas that is issued an Advisory to Evacuate.  A scenario is a combination of

circumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.

2. The ETE are computed and presented in tabular format and graphically, in a format

compliantwithNUREG/CR7002.

3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplantto

theextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedin

theanalysis.

4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlyingkeyholeorcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedin

Section1.4ofNUREG/CR7002.TheseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundaries

reflecting the geography of the subareas included within these underlying

configurations.

5. As indicated in Figure 22 of NUREG/CR7002, 100% of people within the impacted

keyhole evacuate. 20% of those people within the EPZ, not within the impacted

keyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwill

voluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure21foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuation

percentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentage

ofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).

6. A total of 14 Scenarios representing different temporal variations (season, time of

day,dayofweek)andweatherconditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlined

inTable21.

7. Scenario14considerstheclosureofasinglelaneonInterstate70fortheentiretyofthe

analysisnetwork.Thelaneclosureisinthedirectionawayfromtheplant:onelanein

the eastbound direction west of the Missouri Z interchange and one lane in the

westbounddirectioneastoftheMissouriZinterchange.

8. The models of the IDYNEV System were recognized as state of the art by the Atomic

Safety & Licensing Board (ASLB) in past hearings. (Sources: Atomic Safety & Licensing

Board Hearings on Seabrook and Shoreham; Urbanik1). The models have continuously

beenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbya

consultant retained by the NRC.  The new DYNEV II model incorporates the latest

technologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.

9. There are two correctional facilities within the EPZ - The Fulton Reception and

Diagnostic Center and the Callaway County Jail. Both of these facilities will shelter in

placeintheeventofanevacuationinaccordancewithstateandcountyplans.

 



1

Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,

NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.



CallawayPlant 22 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions

Dayof Timeof

Scenario Season2 Week Day Weather Special

1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None

2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None

3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None

4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None

Midweek,

5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None

6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None

7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None

8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None

9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None

10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None

11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None

Midweek,

12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None

Constructionnewunits

13 Winter Midweek Midday Good attheCallawaysite

RoadwayImpact-Lane

14 Summer Midweek Midday Good ClosureonI70







2

Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnot

insession.





CallawayPlant 23 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure21.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology



CallawayPlant 24 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



2.3 StudyAssumptions

1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccident

thatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:

a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.

b. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after

sirennotification.

c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofsubareasformingaRegionthatisissued

anAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththe

plannedroutes.

3. 60percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1commuter;48percentofthose

householdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheir

evacuation trip, based on the telephone survey results. Therefore 29 percent (60% x

48%=29%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginning

theirevacuationtrip.

4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationofthrough(ExternalExternal)tripsduringthe

timethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion.Normaltrafficflow

isassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.

5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowing

thesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.Earlieractivationof

ACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.Itisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwill

entertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.

6. Traffic Control Points (TCP) within the EPZ will be staffed over time, beginning at the

Advisory to Evacuate.  Their number and location will depend on the Region to be

evacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:

a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.

b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.

c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytravelerwhoisunsureoftheappropriate

actionsorrouting.

d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.

e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,based

ondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.



In calculating ETE, it is assumed that evacuees will drive safely, travel in

directionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

 



CallawayPlant 25 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



7. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:

a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothe

designatedreceptioncenters.

b. It is assumed parents will pick up children at day care centers prior to

evacuation.

c. Buses, wheelchair vans and ambulances will evacuate patients at medical

facilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.

d. Transitdependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.

e. Schoolchildren, if school is in session, are given priority in assigning transit

vehicles.

f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.

g. Analysis of the number of required roundtrips (waves) of evacuating transit

vehiclesispresented.

8. Provisions are made for evacuating the transitdependent portion of the general

population to reception centers by bus, based on the assumption that some of these

peoplewillridesharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandfor

buses. We assume that the percentage of people who rideshare is 50 percent. This

assumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies3,andonguidance

inSection2.2ofNUREG/CR7002.

9. Two types of adverse weather scenarios are considered. Rain may occur for either

winterorsummerscenarios;snowoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthatthe

rainorsnowbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.

No weatherrelated reduction in the number of transients who may be present in the

EPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagencies

areplowingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhensnowing.

Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.

The factors applied for the ETE study are based on recent research on the effects of

weatheronroadwayoperations4;thefactorsareshowninTable22.







 



3

InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June

1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswith

otherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).

4

 Agarwal, M. et. Al. Impacts of Weather on Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Characteristics and Facility Capacity,

Proceedings of the 2005 MidContinent Transportation Research Symposium, August, 2005. The results of this

paperareincludedasExhibit1015intheHCM2010.



CallawayPlant 26 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





10. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbus

forelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedon

discussions with county offices of emergency management.  Transit buses used to

transportthetransitdependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30people

perbus.





Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather

Highway FreeFlow

Scenario Capacity* Speed* MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulation

Rain 90% 90% NoEffect

Cleardrivewaybeforeleavinghome

Snow 80% 80%

(Source:TelephoneSurvey)

• Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgood

weatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.





























CallawayPlant 27 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3 DEMANDESTIMATION

The estimates of demand, expressed in terms of people and vehicles, constitute a critical

elementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:

1. An estimate of population within the EPZ, stratified into groups (resident, employee,

transient).

2. An estimate, for each population group, of mean occupancy per evacuating

vehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.

3. Anestimateofpotentialdoublecountingofvehicles.

Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates. Our primary

source of population data, the 2010 Census, however, is not adequate for directly estimating

sometransientgroups.

Throughout the year, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These nonresidents may dwell

withintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleave

within one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so

thattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeascertained.

Thepotentialfordoublecountingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample:

x AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againas

anemployeeandonceagainasashopper.

x Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,thengoesshoppingcouldbe

countedthreetimes.

Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motel

parkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,which

arefullatnoon,maybealmostemptyatdawn.Estimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyadding

upthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberof

transientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.

Analysis of the population characteristics of the Callaway Plant EPZ indicates the need to

identifythreedistinctgroups:

x PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ.

x Transients  people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specific

purpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea.

x Employees  people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to businesses within

theEPZonadailybasis.

Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of the population

groups are presented for each subarea and by polar coordinate representation (population

rose).TheCallawayEPZissubdividedinto15subareas.TheEPZisshowninFigure31.



CallawayPlant 31 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3.1 PermanentResidents

The primary source for estimating permanent population is the latest U.S. Census data. The

average household size (2.40 persons/household - See Figure F1) and the number of

evacuating vehicles per household (1.35 vehicles/household - See Figure F8) were adapted

fromthetelephonesurveyresults.

Population estimates are based upon Census 2010 data. Table 31 provides the permanent

residentpopulationwithintheEPZ,bysubarea.

The year 2010 permanent resident population is divided by the average household size and

then multiplied by the average number of evacuating vehicles per household in order to

estimatenumberofvehicles.InSubareaC9,anadditionalstepwastakentoremoveresident

vehiclesassociatedwiththeFultonReceptionandDiagnosticCenter,acorrectionalfacilitythat

doesnotevacuate,andtoalterthevehiclenumbersforthetwohighereducationfacilitiesas

describedinSection3.6.Permanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresented

in Table 32.  Figure 32 and Figure 33 present the permanent resident population and

permanent resident vehicle estimates by sector and distance from the Callaway Plant.  This

rosewasconstructedusingGISsoftware.

Itcanbearguedthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumber

of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that

some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel

elsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows:

x Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer.

x Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e. 10

percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwoweekinterval.

x Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.

Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummer

andbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedto

applynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfor

residentswhomaybeoutofthearea.



CallawayPlant 32 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure



to ULNRC-05881



Figure31.CallawayPlantEPZ



CallawayPlant 33 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation

Subarea 2000Population 2010Population

C1 78 90 C2 363 363 C3 339 441 C4 322 264 C5 72 86 C6 451 492 C7 1,279 1,406 C8 2,462 2,493 C9 11,723 12,112 C10 417 544 C11 258 239 G1 102 107 M1 209 181 M2 555 496 O1 996 859 TOTAL 19,626 20,173 EPZPopulationGrowth: 2.79%



Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubarea

Subarea 2010Population 2010Vehicles

C1 90 50 C2 363 202 C3 441 249 C4 264 151 C5 86 49 C6 492 276 C7 1,406 792 C8 2,493 1,395 C9 12,112 6,396*

C10 544 304 C11 239 135 G1 107 60 M1 181 104 M2 496 279 O1 859 487 TOTAL 20,173 10,929

• AlteredbasedoncorrectionalandhighereducationfacilitieslocatedinSubareaC9.



CallawayPlant 34 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector



CallawayPlant 35 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector

 



CallawayPlant 36 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3.2 ShadowPopulation

Aproportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradially

from the Callaway Plant (in the Shadow Region) may elect to evacuate without having been

instructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthe

permanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwill

electtoevacuate.

Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuation vehicles per household,

mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as that for the EPZ permanent resident

population.Table33presentsestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.

Table33.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector

Sector Population Vehicles

N 197 113 NNE 125 71 NE 156 89 ENE 181 105 E 135 77 ESE 265 149 SE 282 162 SSE 109 64 S 186 107 SSW 356 200 SW 373 209 WSW 505 282 W 663 373 WNW 1,868 1,054 NW 967 543 NNW 333 186 TOTAL 6,701 3,784



3.3 TransientPopulation

Transient population groups are defined as those people (who are not permanent residents,

nor commuting employees) who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation).

Transients may spend less than one day or stay overnight at camping facilities, hotels and

motels. The Callaway Plant EPZ has a number of areas and facilities that attract transients,

including:

x LodgingFacilities

x BoatRamps



CallawayPlant 37 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 x Campgrounds

x GolfCourses

x Hunting/Fishing

Surveys of transient facilities within the EPZ were conducted to determine the number of

transientsandvehicleoccupancyforeachtypeoftransientattraction.Atotalof144transients

in71vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Atotalof2,251transientsin825

vehiclesareassignedtorecreationalareaswithintheEPZ.Thus,atotalof2,395transientsand

896vehiclesevacuatefromtransientattractionswithintheEPZatpeaktimes.Somefacilities

didnotprovidetransientorvehicleoccupancydata.Forthosefacilities,theuseofanobserved

parkinglotcapacitycombinedwithaerialimageryandrepresentativeoccupancyaverageswere

appliedtoestimatepeakoccupancy.

AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE4presents

the number of transients visiting recreational areas, while Table E5 presents the number of

transientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.

Table34presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbysubarea.Figure34

andFigure35presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant. 



CallawayPlant 38 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table34.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles

Subarea Transients TransientVehicles

C1 10 4

C2 151 76

C3 41 15

C4 2 2

C5 0 0

C6 10 4

C7 20 12

C8 2,039 698

C9 144 71

C10 4 2

C11 0 0

G1 0 0

M1 0 0

M2 5 5

O1 30 30

TOTAL 2,456 919

 



CallawayPlant 39 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure34.TransientPopulationbySector

 



CallawayPlant 310 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure35.TransientVehiclesbySector 



CallawayPlant 311 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3.4 Employees

EmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories:

x ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ

x ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.

Those of the first category are already counted as part of the permanent resident

population.To avoid double counting, we focus only on those employees commuting from

outsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.

Year 2009 Longitudinal EmployerHousehold Dynamics1 OriginDestination Employment

StatisticsprovidedbytheU.S.CensusBureauwasusedtoestimatethenumberofemployees

commutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidnotprovidedata.

InTableE3,thenumberofemployees(maxshift)ismultipliedbythepercentNonEPZfactor

todeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancy

of1.09employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF7)wasusedto

determinethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers.Thenumbers

for plant employees and employee vehicles (the only major employer in Subarea C1) were

obtaineddirectlyfromtheplant.

Table 35 presents nonEPZ Resident employee and vehicle estimates by subarea. Figure 36

andFigure37presentthesedatabysector.

 



1

 U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD OriginDestination Employment Statistics (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd

Quarterof2009).AnalysisGenerationDate:9/22/2011



CallawayPlant 312 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table35.SummaryofNonEPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles

Subarea Employees EmployeeVehicles

C1 330 304 C2 0 0 C3 0 0 C4 0 0 C5 0 0 C6 0 0 C7 0 0 C8 0 0 C9 417 383 C10 0 0 C11 0 0 G1 0 0 M1 0 0 M2 0 0 O1 0 0 TOTAL 747 687



 



CallawayPlant 313 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure36.EmployeePopulationbySector

 



CallawayPlant 314 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure37.EmployeeVehiclesbySector

 



CallawayPlant 315 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3.5 MedicalFacilities

DatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Chapter8

details the evacuation of medical facilities and their patients. The number and type of

evacuating vehicles that need to be provided depend on the patients' state of health. It is

estimated that buses can transport up to 30 people; wheelchair vans, up to 4 people;

wheelchairbusesupto15people;andambulances,upto2people.

3.6 CollegesandUniversities

TherearetwohighereducationfacilitiesintheCallawayEPZ:WestminsterCollegeandWilliam

WoodsUniversity.Toestimatethedemandforthesefacilities,itwasassumedthatallstudents

withoutpersonalvehiclesoncampuswouldneedtobeprovidedtransportationassistancefrom

the county, and that all students with personal vehicles would evacuate with a ratio of one

person per vehicle. The percentage of students without personal vehicles on campus was

determinedfromtheUSNewsCollegeandWorldReportswebsite.Thepercentageofstudents

without personal vehicles is 23% for Westminster College2 and 10% for William Woods

University.3 The resulting number of students who would need transportation is 265 (23% of

1,151 total enrollment) for Westminster College and 223 (10% of 2,226 total enrollment) for

WilliamWoodsUniversity.

 



2

(2011).U.S.News&WorldReportsLP.WestminsterCollege,<http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/bestcolleges/westminster college3681>(November21,2011).

3

(2001).U.S.News&WorldReportsLP.WilliamWoodsUniversity,<http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/bestcolleges/william woods2525>(November21,2011).



CallawayPlant 316 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



3.7 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation

VehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(externalexternaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.

AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethroughtravelerswillalsoevacuate.These

throughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-Interstate70

andUSHighway54.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst

120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationto

estimate the number of vehicles per hour on the aforementioned routes.  The AADT was

multipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlink

duringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusually

the 30th highest hourly traffic volume of the year, measured in vehicles per hour (vph).  The

DHV is then multiplied by the DFactor, which is the proportion of the DHV occurring in the

peak direction of travel (also known as the directional split).  The resulting values are the

directional design hourly volumes (DDHV), and are presented in Table 36, for each of the

routesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-are

assumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotal

number of external vehicles loaded on the analysis network. As indicated, there are 9,064

vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternalexternaltripspriorto theactivationoftheACPandthe

diversion of this traffic. This number is scaleddown to an estimated40% (3,626 vehicles) for

eveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.





CallawayPlant 317 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Table36.CallawayPlantEPZExternalTraffic to ULNRC-05881 HPMS1 Hourly External

UpNode DnNode RoadName Direction KFactor2 DFactor2

AADT Volume Traffic

8005 5 I70 EB 29,468 0.107 0.5 1,577 3,154 8800 800 I70 WB 29,468 0.107 0.5 1,577 3,154 8073 756 US54 NB 11,880 0.116 0.5 689 1,378 8028 28 US54 SB 11,880 0.116 0.5 689 1,378 TOTAL 9,064 1

HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,2011

2

HCM2010







CallawayPlant 318 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3.8 SpecialEvent

Based on discussion with Ameren Missouri and the offsite agencies, the special event

considered is the construction of new nuclear generating facilities at the Callaway Plant site

duringthepeakconstructionyear2023.TheAmerenMissouriCombinedOperatingLicense

Application (COLA) estimates the number of construction workers at that time to be 2,765

evacuating in an estimated 2,469 vehicles. A population annual exponential growth rate was

obtained from 2000 and 2010 populations, and then applied to the resident and shadow

populationtoprojectthepopulationintheyear2023.Table37showsthepopulationgrowth

foreachSubareaandtheShadowRegionforthefutureconstructionyear.

An additional sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE from the

constructionoftwolargenewunitsandtwoproposedroadways(toassistintrafficgenerated

byanincreaseofworkersatthenewunits).Thedetailsandresultsofthisstudyarediscussedin

SectionM.4ofAppendixM.



Table37.PopulationGrowthforConstructionScenario

GrowthRateto 20102023

2000 2010 2023

Subarea Construction Population

Population Population Population

Year Change C1 78 90 120% 108 18 C2 363 363 100% 363 0 C3 339 441 141% 621 180 C4 322 264 77% 204 60 C5 72 86 126% 108 22 C6 451 492 112% 551 59 C7 1,279 1,406 113% 1,590 184 C8 2,462 2,493 102% 2,534 41 C9 11,723 12,112 104% 12,637 525 C10 417 544 141% 769 225 C11 258 239 91% 216 23 G1 102 107 106% 114 7 M1 209 181 83% 150 31 M2 555 496 86% 429 67 O1 996 859 83% 709 150 EPZ 19,626 20,173 21,103 930 Shadow  6,701 106% 7,083 382 TOTAL  26,874  28,186 1,312 Note:Growthratefortheshadowregionisassumedtobetheaverageofthesubareagrowthrates





CallawayPlant 319 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 3.9 SummaryofDemand

Asummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandissummarizedin

Table38andTable39,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedin

this section.  Additional population groups - transitdependent, special facility and school

population-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof30,778peopleand22,618

vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.



Table38.SummaryofPopulationDemand

Transit Special Shadow External Subarea Residents Dependent Transients Employees Facilities Schools Population Traffic Total

C1 90 2 10 330 0 0 0 0 432

C2 363 6 151 0 0 0 0 0 520

C3 441 7 41 0 0 0 0 0 489

C4 264 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 270

C5 86 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 87

C6 492 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 510

C7 1,406 24 20 0 0 864 0 0 2,314

C8 2,493 42 2,039 0 0 0 0 0 4,574

C9 12,112 207 144 417 17 4,620 0 0 17,517

C10 544 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 557

C11 239 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 243

G1 107 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 109

M1 181 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 184

M2 496 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 509

O1 859 15 30 0 0 219 0 0 1,173

Shadow 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,340 0 1,340

Total 20,173 342 2,456 747 17 5,703 1,340 0 30,778

NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure21foradditionalinformation.



 



CallawayPlant 320 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table39.SummaryofVehicleDemand

Transit Special Shadow External Subarea Residents Dependent Transients Employees Facilities Schools Population Traffic Total

C1 50 4 4 304 0 0 0 0 362

C2 202 8 76 0 0 0 0 0 286

C3 249 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 264

C4 151 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 153

C5 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49

C6 276 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 280

C7 792 0 12 0 0 36 0 0 840

C8 1,395 4 698 0 0 0 0 0 2,097

C9 6,396 4 71 383 4 184 0 0 7,042

C10 304 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 306

C11 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135

G1 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60

M1 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 104

M2 279 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 284

O1 487 4 30 0 0 14 0 0 535

Shadow 0 0 0 0 0 0 757 9,064 9,821

Total 10,929 24 919 687 4 234 757 9,064 22,618

NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 4 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY

Theabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghow

rapidly an evacuation can be completed. The capacity of a road is defined as the maximum

hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or

uniform section of a lane of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway,

trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).

In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical

designations, A through F, to reflect the range of traffic operational characteristics. These

designations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes

freeflowandhighspeedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSE

describestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.

Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,isServiceVolume(SV).Servicevolumeis

definedasThemaximumhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbe

expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a roadway during an hour under specific

assumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice.Thisdefinitionissimilarto

thatforcapacity.ThemajordistinctionisthatvaluesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,while

capacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.

ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit1117oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvaries

with Free Flow Speed (FFS), and LOS. The SV is calculated by the DYNEV II simulation model,

basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.

Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto:

x Lanewidth

x Shoulderwidth

x Pavementcondition

x Percenttrucktraffic

x Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal)

x Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)

These factors are considered during the road survey and in the capacity estimation process;

some factors have greater influence on capacity than others. For example, laneand shoulder

widthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS1)accordingtoExhibit157

of the HCM. Consequently, lane and shoulder widths at the narrowest points were observed

duringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurements

of lane or shoulder width were taken. The estimated FFS were measured using the survey

vehiclesspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.

AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailing

conditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuch



1

AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)



CallawayPlant 41 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 as rain reduce the values of free speed and of highway capacity by approximately 10

percent.Over the last decade new studies have been made on the effects of rain on traffic

capacity. These studies indicate a range of effects between 5 and 20 percent depending on

windspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfree

speedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandsnow,respectively.

Since congestion arising from evacuation may be significant, estimates of roadway capacity

mustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajor

factorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.

Rural highways generally consist of: (1) one or more uniform sections with limited access

(driveways, parking areas) characterized by uninterrupted flow; and (2) approaches to at grade intersections where flow can be interrupted by a control device or by turning or

crossing traffic at the intersection. Due to these differences, separate estimates of capacity

must be made for each section. Often, the approach to the intersection is widened by the

additionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacity

oftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.Theseadditional

lanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.

4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections

Atgradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytraffic

volumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespective

competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, control at

critical intersections will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that

purpose, whose directions may supersede traffic control devices. The existing traffic

management plans documented in the county emergency plans are extensive and were

adoptedwithoutchange.

The perlane capacity of an approach to a signalized intersection can be expressed

(simplistically)inthefollowingform:







where:



Qcap,m = Capacity of a single lane of  traffic on an approach, which executes

movement,m,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)

hm = Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecuting

movement,m;secondspervehicle

G = Mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles that are executing



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 movement,m,foreachsignalcycle;seconds

L = Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;seconds

C = Durationofeachsignalcycle;seconds

Pm = ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m,

fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.

m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the

intersection:through,leftturn,rightturn,anddiagonal.



Theturnmovementspecificmeandischargeheadwayhm,dependsinacomplexwayupon

manyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,

thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischarge

headway",hsat,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflicting

trafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.

Formally,wecanwrite,







where:

hsat = Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicle

F1,F2 = Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencinghm

fm() = Complexfunctionrelatinghmtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofhsat,

F1,F2,

Theestimationofhmforspecifiedvaluesofhsat,F1,F2,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVII

simulation model by a mathematical model2.The resulting values for hm always satisfy the

condition:





That is, the turnmovementspecific discharge headways are always greater than, or equal to

the saturation discharge headway for through vehicles.  These headways (or its inverse

equivalent,saturationflowrate),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheprocedures

oftheHCM2010.



2 Lieberman,E., "DeterminingLateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approachto an Intersection", McShane,W. &

Lieberman, E., "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach". Both papers appear in

TransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLargeScale

EvacuationPlanning,presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January2226,2012





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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexity

ofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010address

thistopic.Thefactors,F1,F2,,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(185)

oftheHCM2010.



ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasing

plansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignal

installations allow the proportion of green time allocated (Pm) for each approach to each

intersection to be determined by the expected traffic volumes on each approach during

evacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumand

minimum phase duration constraints; 2 seconds of yellow time are indicated for each signal

phaseand1secondofallredtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandallredtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of

2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.

4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway

Thecapacityofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunction

ofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetraffic

stream) and, of course, motorist behavior. There is a fundamental relationship which relates

servicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiven

timeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure41illustratesthisrelationship.

Asindicated,therearetwoflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow

(right side). In the Free Flow regime, the traffic demandis fully serviced; the service volume

increasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsitsmaximum

value,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighway

densityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.the

service volume) can actually decline below capacity (capacity drop). Therefore, in order to

realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e. when demand

exceeds capacity), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, VF, under congested

conditions.

ThevalueofVFcanbeexpressedas:



where:

R = Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 We have employed a value of R=0.90.The advisability of such a capacity reduction factor is

baseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafalloffintheserviceflowratewhencongestion

occursatbottlenecksorchokepointsonafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson3describea

research program that collected data from a computerbased surveillance system (loop

detectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincities

metro area in Minnesota over a 7week period.  When flow breakdown occurs, queues are

formed which discharge at lower flow rates than the maximum capacity prior to observed

breakdown.  These queue discharge flow (QDF) rates vary from one location to the next and

alsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.Thecitedreference

presentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompares

with the nominal capacity estimate of 2,250 pcphpl estimated for the ETE and indicated in

AppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoa

capacityreductionfactorof0.90.

Since the principal objective of evacuation time estimate analyses is to develop a realistic

estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor

(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythe

simulationmodel.

Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedasuninterruptedflowfacilities.(Thisisincontrast

withurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedintersectionsandareclassified

as interrupted flow facilities.) Assuch, traffic flow along rural roads is subject to the same

effects as freeways in the event traffic demand exceeds the nominal capacity, resulting in

queuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocations

away from intersections.  Any breakdowns on rural roads are generally experienced at

intersections where other model logic applies, or at lane drops which reduce capacity there.

Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,

activated.

The estimated value of capacity is based primarily upon the type of facility and on roadway

geometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfreeflow

speeds and lane capacity. Exhibit 1530 in the Highway Capacity Manual was referenced to

estimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshouldersonfreeflowspeed

andoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasis

thecaseduringanevacuation.

Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,VE,basedonobservationsmade

traveling over each section of the evacuation network, based on the posted speed limits and

travelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulation

model determines for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its

capacity would be limited by the "sectionspecific" service volume, VE, or by the

intersectionspecificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.



3 Lei Zhang and David Levinson, Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks, Transportation Research

Record1883,2004.



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 4.3 ApplicationtotheCallawayPlantStudyArea

Aspartofthedevelopmentofthelinknodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateof

roadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedherein

iscontainedin:

2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)

TransportationResearchBoard

NationalResearchCouncil

Washington,D.C.

The highway system in the study area consists primarily of three categories of roads and, of

course,intersections:

x TwoLaneroads:Local,State

x MultiLaneHighways(atgrade)

x Freeways

Eachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.

4.3.1 TwoLaneRoads

Ref:HCMChapter15

Two lane roads comprise the majority of highways within the EPZ. The perlanecapacity of a

twolane highway is estimated at 1700 passenger cars per hour (pc/h).  This estimate is

essentially independent of the directional distribution of traffic volume except that, for

extendeddistances,thetwowaycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.TheHCMproceduresthen

estimate Level of Service (LOS) and Average Travel Speed.  The DYNEV II simulation model

accepts the specified value of capacity as input and computes average speed based on the

timevaryingdemand:capacityrelations.

Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation

scenarios:

x Most sections of twolane roads within the EPZ are classified as Class I, with "level

terrain";somearerollingterrain.

x ClassIIhighwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.

4.3.2 MultiLaneHighway

Ref:HCMChapter14

Exhibit142oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaperlanecapacityranging

fromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfreespeedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedon

observation,themultilanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZ,servicetrafficwith

freespeedsinthisrange.Theactualtimevaryingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodel

reflect the demand: capacity relationship and the impact of control at intersections.  A



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 conservativeestimateofperlanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformultilane

highwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.

4.3.3 Freeways

Ref:HCMChapters10,11,12,13

Chapter 10 of the HCM 2010 describes a procedure for integrating the results obtained in

Chapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewaycomponents.Chapter10

alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomatically

performsthisintegrationprocess.

Chapter 11 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for Basic

FreewaySegments".Exhibit1117oftheHCM2010presentscapacityvs.freespeedestimates,

whichareprovidedbelow.



FreeSpeed(mph): 55 60 65 70+

PerLaneCapacity(pc/h): 2250 2300 2350 2400



Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,freespeedsandcapacitybasedon

fieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtimevaryingspeedsbasedondemand:

capacityrelationships.

Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacity,speed,densityand

LOS for freeway weaving sections.  The simulation model contains logic that relates speed to

demand volume: capacity ratio.  The value of capacity obtained from the computational

procedures detailed in Chapter 12 depends on the "Type" and geometrics of the weaving

segmentandonthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).

Chapter 13 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacities of ramps and of

"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofaramp freeway junction:  The capacity of the freeway immediately downstream of an onramp or

immediately upstream of an offramp; the capacity of the ramp roadway; and the maximum

flow rate entering the ramp influence area.  In most cases, the freeway capacity is the

controllingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit138oftheHCM

2010, and depend on the number of freeway lanes and on the freeway free speed.  Ramp

capacityispresentedinExhibit1310andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEV

IIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficin

accord with the procedures in Chapter 13 of the HCM 2010.  If congestion results from an

excess of demand relative to capacity, then the model allocates service appropriately to the

twoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSF

explicitly).

 



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 4.3.4 Intersections

Ref:HCMChapters18,19,20,21

Procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for approaches to intersections are presented in

Chapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(unsignalizedintersections)andChapter

21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelength

ofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.

Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both

2way and allway) and traffic signal controlled intersections. Where intersections are

controlled by fixed time controllers, traffic signal timings are set to reflect average (non evacuation) traffic conditions. Actuated traffic signal settings respond to the timevarying

demands of evacuation traffic to adjust the relative capacities of the competing intersection

approaches.

The model is also capable of modeling the presence of manned traffic control. At specific

locationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontrol

to implement manned control, the model will use actuated signal timings that reflect the

presenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns, contraflow lanes) is used, the strategy is modeled explicitly. Where applicable, the

locationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendix

K.

4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimation

Chapter6oftheHCMisentitled,HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools.Thechapterdiscusses

the use of alternative tools such as simulation modeling to evaluate the operational

performance of highway networks.  Among the reasons cited in Chapter 6 to consider using

simulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:

The system under study involves a group of different facilities or travel modes with

mutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetools

areabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem.

Thisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacross

an area encompassing an EPZ operating under evacuation conditions.  The model utilized for

this study, DYNEV II, is further described in Appendix C. It is essential to recognize that

simulationmodelsdonotreplicatethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplace

these procedures by describing the complex interactions of traffic flow and computing

MeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeand

bylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthe

purposeofestimatingcapacity.

All simulation models must be calibrated properly with field observations that quantify the

performance parameters applicable to the analysis network. Two of the most important of

these are: (1) Free flow speed (FFS); and (2) saturation headway, hsat. The first of these is



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 estimated by direct observation during the road survey; the second is estimated using the

conceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,for

eachnetworklink.



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Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams





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5 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME

Federal Government guidelines (see NUREG CR7002) specify that the planner estimate the

distributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublic

to prepare for the evacuation trip.The elapsed time associated with each activity is

representedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.

The quantification of these activitybased distributions relies largely on the results of the

telephone survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip

GenerationTimeDistribution.

5.1 Background

In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency

ActionLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):

1. UnusualEvent

2. Alert

3. SiteAreaEmergency

4. GeneralEmergency

Ateachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbytheLicensee,

and by State and Local offsite authorities. As a Planning Basis, we will adopt a conservative

posture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwill

beconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:

1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththeemergencynotification.

2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommenceupto10minutesafterthealert

notification.

3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseevents

willoccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorder

to:

1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the

formatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR6863.

2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.

Itislikelythatalongertimewillelapsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.

Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthis

case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during

this onehour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the

AdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywill

engageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.

Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people



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remainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthan

the estimates presented in this report.  Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are

higherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.

Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:

1. Transmitting information using the alert notification systems available within the EPZ

(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakersandREVERSE911).

2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.

ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately420squaremilesand

is engaged in a wide variety of activities. It must be anticipated that some time will elapse

betweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.

Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethat

personis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowill

be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the

emergency is declared. These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who

residewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceiving

notificationofanemergency.

AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptof

notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for

differentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibleto

distinguish between different population groups and different dayofweek and timeofday

scenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.

Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortone

alertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbytelephone,radio,

TVandwordofmouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistribution

oftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,but

dispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.

As indicated in Section 4.1 of NUREG/CR7002, the information required to compute trip

generationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.Suchasurvey

was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F presents the survey sampling plan,

surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeandduration

oftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionis

not expected to cause the evacuation time estimate to extend in time well beyond the trip

generationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthetripgeneration

data obtained from the telephone survey to the development of the ETE documented in this

report.

 



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5.2 FundamentalConsiderations

Theenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofa

sequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintime

andistheoutcomeofanactivity.

Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertake

anactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormore

activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are

functionallydependentonthecompletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelare

functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's

preparationforevacuationare:



EventNumber EventDescription

1 Notification

2 AwarenessofSituation

3 DepartWork

4 ArriveHome

5 DepartonEvacuationTrip



Associatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:



Table51.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities

EventSequence Activity Distribution

12 ReceiveNotification 1

23 PreparetoLeaveWork 2

2,34 TravelHome 3

2,45 PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4

N/A SnowClearance 5



TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure51.

x AnEventisastatethatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome)

x AnActivityisaprocessthattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleave

work,travelhome)

Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthestateofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,travelhome

changesthestatefromdepartworktoarrivehome).Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedas

anEventSequence;theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothe

nextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.



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An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 51. A household

within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work, and will await their return before

beginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure51(a).Ahouseholdwithin

theEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,will

followthesecondsequenceofFigure51(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.

Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/nighttime, will follow the

applicable sequence in Figure 51(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of

Figure51(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediately

withoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.

ItisseenfromFigure51,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1

to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.

Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivities

preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain

estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the

conservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.

In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter

returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the

preparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilization

times.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformany

households,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.



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1 2 3 4 5 Residents Households wait 1

for Commuters Households without Residents 1 2 5 Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Residents, Transients 1 2 4 5 Return to residence, away from then evacuate Residence Residents, 1 2 5 Residents at home; Transients at transients evacuate directly Residence (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening2 1 2 3,5 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ ACTIVITIES EVENTS 1 2 Receive Notification 1. Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2. Aware of situation 2, 3 4 Travel Home 3. Depart work 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4. Arrive home

5. Depart on evacuation trip Activities Consume Time 1

Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.



Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip

 



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5.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5

Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallprior

contributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceit

isperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).

TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity1o2

Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithinthe

EPZ will be aware of the accident within 30 minutes with the remainder notified within the

following15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:



Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic

ElapsedTime Percentof

(Minutes) PopulationNotified

0 0%

5 7%

10 13%

15 27%

20 47%

25 66%

30 87%

35 92%

40 97%

45 100%



 



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DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity2o3

ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelect

to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work

quickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysince

facilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelor

farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their

facility. The distribution of Activity 2  3 shown in Table 53 reflects data obtained by the

telephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52.



Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork

Cumulative

ElapsedTime Percent

(Minutes) Employees

Leavingwork

0 0%

5 47%

10 67%

15 77%

20 82%

25 82%

30 92%

35 93%

40 93%

45 95%

50 95%

55 95%

60 100%





NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedin

size to include only those households who responded to this question.  The underlying assumption is that the

distributionofthisactivityfortheDontknowresponders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthose

responderswhoprovidedestimates.

 



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DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity3o4

These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone

survey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable54.



Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome

Cumulative

ElapsedTime

PercentReturning

(Minutes)

Home

0 0

5 17%

10 35%

15 49%

20 62%

25 69%

30 84%

35 86%

40 89%

45 94%

50 94%

55 95%

60 98%

75 99%

90 100%





NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response





 



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DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome: Activity2,4o5

These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone

survey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable55.



Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate

Cumulative

ElapsedTime

PercentReady

(Minutes)

toEvacuate 0 0%

15 20%

30 64%

45 69%

60 86%

75 91%

90 93%

105 93%

120 97%

135 99%

150 99%

165 99%

180 100%



NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

 



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DistributionNo.5,SnowClearanceTimeDistribution

Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with

snow clearance.  It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the

snowfall to maintain passable roads.  The general consensus is that the snowplowing efforts

are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow

accumulationexceedsthatofsnowclearanceoveraperiodofmanyhours.

Consequently,itisreasonabletoassumethatthehighwaysystemwillremainpassable-albeit

atalowercapacity-underthevastmajorityofsnowconditions.Nevertheless,forthevehicles

togainaccesstothehighwaysystem,itmaybenecessaryfordrivewaysandemployeeparking

lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.

These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation

time distributions.  These data are provided by those households which responded to the

telephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable56.





Table56.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6"8"ofSnow

Cumulative

ElapsedTime

PercentReady

(Minutes)

toEvacuate 0 47%

15 54%

30 69%

45 73%

60 83%

75 85%

90 87%

105 88%

120 95%

135 97%

150 97%

165 97%

180 100%



NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response





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to ULNRC-05881 MobilizationActivities 100%

80%

60%

Notification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome 40%

PrepareHome TimetoClearSnow PercentofHouseholdsCompletingActivity 20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 ElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)



Figure52.EvacuationMobilizationActivities



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5.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution

The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be

combinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudy

assumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbe

completedbeforethecurrenteventcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturn

ofacommuter,theworktohometrip(Activity3o4)mustprecedeActivity4o5.

Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itis

necessary to sum the distributions associated with these prior activities. The distribution

summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution.  As an

outcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassignletterdesignations

to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure. Table 57 presents the summing

proceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.

Table57.MappingDistributionstoEvents

ApplySummingAlgorithmTo: DistributionObtained EventDefined

Distributions1and2 DistributionA Event3

DistributionsAand3 DistributionB Event4

DistributionsBand4 DistributionC Event5

Distributions1and4 DistributionD Event5

DistributionsCand5 DistributionE Event5

DistributionsDand5 DistributionF Event5



Table58presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthe

summingprocessiscompleted.

 



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Table58.DescriptionoftheDistributions

Distribution Description

Timedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).Alsoapplies

A to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients

withintheEPZ.

B Timedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).

Timedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghome

C

tobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).

Timedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghome

D

tobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).

Timedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghome

E

tobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).

Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to

F

begintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).



5.4.1 StatisticalOutliers

As already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer dont know to some

questionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebased

upon actual responses.  But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are

inconsistent with the overall pattern of results.  An example would be a case in which for 500

responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say four

hoursand4saysixormorehours.

Theseoutliersmustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbe

droppedfromthesample?

Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:

1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the

respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon

specialneeds;

2)Otherresponsesmaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,

or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);

3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspart

oftheconsiderationofoutliers.

Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobe

considered outliers for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively

quantifiestheprocess.

Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyor

ingroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnon



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parametric methods to avoid that assumption.  The literature cites that limited work has been

donedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.

Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciples

areused:

1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates,

becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withno

overlapofactivities;



2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome,

clearsnow)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsare

created(seeFigure51,Table57,Table58);



3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.

specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetrip

generationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;



4) Toeliminateoutliers,

a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromthe

responses,

b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemean

noted,

c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,and

d) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,taking

special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the

histogramdisplay.

Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowed

tobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.

Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,stepsatodarerepeated.



 



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5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,

viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.Atypicalsituationthat

resultsisshownbelowinFigure53.

100.0%

90.0%

80.0%

CumulativePercentage(%)

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

112.5 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 67.5 82.5 97.5 CenterofInterval(minutes)

CumulativeData CumulativeNormal





Figure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution



6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key

aspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes:



3/4 Most of the real data is to the left of the normal curve above, indicating that the

networkloadsfasterforthefirst8085%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(and

earlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled;

3/4 Thelast1015%oftherealdatatailsoffslowerthanthecomparablenormalcurve,

indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.

Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathat

isusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,notanormalcurvefittothedata.One

could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is

unambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;



7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps16,includingpreserving

thefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.

This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g. commuter

returning,nocommuterreturning,nosnoworsnowineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,using



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weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 54 presents the

combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are

presentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisa

conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential - preparation for departure

followsthereturnofthecommuter;snowclearancefollowsthepreparationfordeparture,andso

forth.  In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to

someextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhile

thecommuterisstillontheroad.)

Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputs

tolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.

TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationfor

each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. These histograms, which represent

Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in

Table59(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).

The final time period (15) is 600 minutes long.  This time period is added to allow the analysis

networktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethat

therearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.



 



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5.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGeneration

AsdefinedinNUREG/CR7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:

1. Subareascomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately

2. Subareascomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedto

shelterinplacewhilethetwomileregioniscleared

3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwind

continuepreparationforevacuation

4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhen

approximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2

mileregionboundary

5. Noncompliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadow

evacuationpercentageof20%

Assumptions

1. TheEPZpopulationinsubareasbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2

to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90thpercentileETE

forthe2mileregion

2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingto

approximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstaged

evacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithno

shelterdelay.

3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthe

limitedshelteringoptionsavailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,oratothervenues.

Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.

4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.

Procedure

1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbased

upontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.

2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedas

follows:

a. Identifythe90thpercentileevacuationtimeforthesubareascomprisingthetwo

mileregion.Thisvalue,TScen*,obtainedfromsimulationresultsisscenario specific.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetold

toevacuateforeachscenario.

b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:

i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%

ofthetotaltripsaregenerated(toaccountforshelternoncompliance).

ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeTScen*



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iii. FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:

1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenonsheltertripgeneration

curve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or

2. bysteppingupto100%(ifTScen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)

c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgeneration

distributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR7002usesthestatement

approximately90thpercentileasthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.

ThevalueofTScen*is1:25fornonsnow,1:25forsnowweekday,and2:15for

snowweekendscenarios.Thereasonforthetimedifferencebetweensnow weekdayandsnowweekendscenariosisthat85%ofthevehicleswithinthe2 mileregionarethoseoftheemployeesattheCallawayPlant.Thispopulation

groupmobilizesfaster(100%havemobilizedwithin60minutes)thanthegeneral

populationandwillthereforeevacuateinashorteramountoftime.Whilethis

hasnoimpactonthe100thpercentileevacuationtime,the90thpercentile

evacuationtimeduringaweekdaysnowscenarioisalmostanhourshorterthan

duringaweekendsnowscenariowhenemployeevehiclesonlyaccountfor38%

ofallvehicleswithinthe2mileregion.

3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:

a. Residentswithreturningcommuters

b. Residentswithoutreturningcommuters

c. Residentswithreturningcommutersandsnowconditions

d. Residentswithoutreturningcommutersandsnowconditions

Figure55presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithout

returningcommuters;the90thpercentiletwomileevacuationtimeis80minutesforrainand

good weather, 90 minutes for snow weekday scenarios and 155 minutes for snow weekend

scenarios. At the 90th percentile evacuation time, approximately 818% of the population

advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the

shelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroups

asappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.

Sincethe90thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationperiod,

aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisesto

meet the balance of the nonstaged trip generation distribution. Following time TScen*, the

balanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.After

TScen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtrip

generationdistribution.

Table510providesthetripgenerationforstagedevacuation.



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 Enclosure Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation

to ULNRC-05881

       

PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod Residents

Residents ResidentsWith

Time Duration Residentswith Without

Employees Transients Without Commuters

Period (Min) Commuters Commuters

(DistributionA) (DistributionA) Commuters Snow

(DistributionC) Snow

(DistributionD) (DistributionE)

(DistributionF) 1 20 16% 16% 0% 3% 0% 2%

2 20 55% 55% 2% 26% 1% 13%

3 20 21% 21% 14% 35% 8% 22%

4 20 5% 5% 25% 17% 14% 17%

5 20 3% 3% 22% 9% 17% 13%

6 20 0% 0% 16% 3% 15% 8%

7 20 0% 0% 8% 3% 11% 6%

8 20 0% 0% 6% 3% 9% 6%

9 20 0% 0% 3% 0% 7% 5%

10 20 0% 0% 2% 1% 6% 3%

11 20 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 2%

12 20 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 1%

13 60 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 2%

14 60 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

15 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%



NOTE:Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure12)usingDistributionsCandEforgoodweatherandsnow,respectively..Specialevent

vehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA





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 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 TripGenerationDistributions Employees/Transients ResidentswithCommuters ResidentswithnoCommuters ReswithCommandSnow ResnoCommwithSnow 100 80 60

%ofPopulationEvacuating 40 20 0

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 ElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)



Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions



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 Enclosure



to ULNRC-05881 Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation

PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*

Residents Residents

Time Duration Residents ResidentsWith ResidentsWith

Residentswith Without Without

Period (Min) Without Commuters Commuters

Commuters Commuters Commuters

Commuters WeekdaySnow WeekendSnow

(DistributionC) WeekdaySnow WeekendSnow

(DistributionD) (DistributionE) (DistributionE)

(DistributionF) (DistributionF) 1 20 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2 20 0% 5% 0% 3% 0% 3%

3 20 3% 7% 2% 4% 2% 4%

4 20 5% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%

5 20 55% 74% 35% 56% 3% 2%

6 20 16% 3% 15% 8% 3% 2%

7 20 8% 3% 11% 6% 21% 24%

8 20 6% 3% 9% 6% 43% 48%

9 20 3% 0% 7% 5% 7% 5%

10 20 2% 1% 6% 3% 6% 3%

11 20 1% 0% 4% 2% 4% 2%

12 20 1% 0% 3% 1% 3% 1%

13 60 0% 0% 4% 2% 4% 2%

14 60 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%

15 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%



• TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable59)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.



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 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/Transients ResidentswithCommuters ResidentswithnoCommuters ReswithCommandSnow ResnoCommwithSnow StagedResidentswithCommuters StagedResidentswithnoCommuters StagedResidentswithCommuters(WeekdaySnow)

StagedResidentswithnoCommuters(WeekdaySnow) StagedResidentswithCommuters(WeekendSnow)

StagedResidentswithnoCommuters(WeekendSnow) 100 80 60

%ofPopulationEvacuating 40 20 0

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 ElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)



Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion



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6 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS

An evacuation case defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.

ThedefinitionsofRegionandScenarioareasfollows:

Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating subareas that forms either a keyhole

sectorbasedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedin

responsetoaradiologicalemergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season,

andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachofthe

affectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.

Atotalof28Regionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofsubareasconsidered.

TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable61.ThesubareaconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure61.

Each keyhole sectorbased area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and

three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR7002

guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5miles

fromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR09)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR10throughR21).

RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,

respectively. Regions R22 through R28 are identical to Regions R04 through R09 and R02,

respectively;however,thosesubareasbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe

2mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.

Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof28x14=392

evacuationcases.Table62isadescriptionofallScenarios.

Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table

63presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.

Table64presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-the

entireEPZ.

ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusted

depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific

percentages; the scenario percentages are presented in Table 63, while the regional

percentages are provided in Table H1. The percentages presented in Table 63 were

determinedasfollows:

The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is

equaltotheproductof60%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and48%

(the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter

priortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandevening

scenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthose

times.

Employment is estimated to be at its peak during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedon

the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a

week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking

vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of

employeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesare

workingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.

TherecreationalareasintheEPZ(showninAppendixE,TableE4)arepredominantlyoutdoors

and will be frequented more often during the summer than the winter. Transient activity is

estimatedtobeatitspeak(100%)duringsummerweekends,35%duringtheweek,and10%

duringtheevening.Forthewinter,transientactivityisestimatedtobeless,5%duringtheweek

and12%ontheweekend.

AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable63,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusinga

base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow

region, all of whom are expected to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a

scenariospecific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For

example, using the values provided in Table 64 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is

computedasfollows:



Onespecialevent-futureconstruction(year2023)ofnewnucleargeneratingfacilitiesatthe

Callaway Plant site - was considered as Scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100%

evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.

Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringthe

regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios. School is not in session during

weekends and evening, thus no buses for school children are needed under those

circumstances. As discussed in Section 7, schools are in session during the winter season,

midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbuses

forthetransitdependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthe

transitdependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.

Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forall

otherscenarios.

 



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions

BasicRegions

Subarea

Region Description C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R01 2MileRadius X              

R02 5MileRadius X X X X X X         

R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R04 N,NNE,NE X    X X         

R05 ENE,E,ESE, X X    X         

R06 SE,SSE,S X X X            

R07 SSW,SW,WSW X  X X           

R08 W X   X           

R09 WNW,NW,NNW X   X X          

Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R10 N X X X X X X         X

R11 NNE,NE X X X X X X X        X

R12 ENE X X X X X X X X       

R13 E,ESE X X X X X X X X X      

R14 SE,SSE X X X X X X  X X X     

R15 S X X X X X X  X  X X    

R16 SSW,SW X X X X X X    X X  X  

R17 WSW X X X X X X     X  X X 

R18 W X X X X X X     X X X X 

R19 WNW X X X X X X      X X X X

R20 NW X X X X X X      X  X X

R21 NNW X X X X X X      X   X

StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R22 N,NNE,NE X    X X         

R23 ENE,E,ESE X X    X         

R24 SE,SSE,S X X X            

R25 SSW,SW,WSW X  X X           

R26 W X   X           

R27 WNW,NW,NNW X   X X          

R28 NoWind X X X X X X         

Key

Subarea(s)Evacuate Subarea(s)ShelterinPlace ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate







CallawayPlant 63 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 161 V

U

²

§

¨70 Graham Cave State Park C10 C9 C11 Fulton Callaw ay County V U19 M1 54 C3 t

u C8 Montgomery County Mark Twain National Forest C2 5 Mile s

2 Miles

[

C1 C4 10 Mil es C6 M2 C5 94 V

U Mollie Missouri Dozier River Hermann Chute C7 G1 Mo n t go m ty Ga s e ry C o un con a oun ty yC de C aw a nty ou nt y Call ge Co u Osa O1 O sage C ounty Gasconade County Legend

[ CallawayPlant 19 V

U Subarea Date:11/16/2011 2,5,10MileRings Copyright:ESRIBasemapData 0 5 10 KLDEngineering,AmerenMissouri Miles



Figure61.CallawayPlantEPZSubareas



CallawayPlant 64 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions

Dayof Timeof

Scenario Season1 Week Day Weather Special

1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None

2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None

3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None

4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None

Midweek,

5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None

6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None

7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None

8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None

9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None

10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None

11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None

Midweek,

12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None

Constructionofnewunits

13 Winter Midweek Midday Good attheCallawayPlantsite

RoadwayImpact-Lane

14 Summer Midweek Midday Good ClosureonI70Outbound





1

 Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotin

session.





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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure

Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios

to ULNRC-05881 Households Households

With Without External

Returning Returning Special School Transit Through

Scenario Commuters Commuters Employees Transients Shadow Event Buses Buses Traffic

1 29% 71% 96% 35% 21% 0% 10% 100% 100%

2 29% 71% 96% 35% 21% 0% 10% 100% 100%

3 10% 90% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%

4 10% 90% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%

5 10% 90% 10% 10% 20% 0% 0% 100% 40%

6 29% 71% 100% 5% 21% 0% 100% 100% 100%

7 29% 71% 100% 5% 21% 0% 100% 100% 100%

8 29% 71% 100% 5% 21% 0% 100% 100% 100%

9 29% 71% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%

10 10% 90% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%

11 10% 90% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%

12 10% 90% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 100% 40%

13 29% 71% 100% 5% 21% 100% 100% 100% 100%

14 29% 71% 96% 35% 21% 0% 10% 100% 100%



ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.

ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.

Employees..................................................EPZemployeeswholiveoutsidetheEPZ

Transients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.

Shadow......................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthe

valuesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.

SpecialEvent..............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.

SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).

ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hours

aftertheevacuationbegins.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Table64.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario

to ULNRC-05881 Households Households

With Without Total

Returning Returning Special School Transit External Scenario

Scenario Commuters Commuters Employees Transients Shadow Event Buses Buses ThroughTraffic Vehicles 1 3,151 7,778 660 322 803 0 23 24 9,064 21,817

2 3,151 7,778 660 322 803 0 23 24 9,064 21,817

3 315 10,614 69 919 762 0 0 24 9,064 21,744

4 315 10,614 69 919 762 0 0 24 9,064 21,744

5 315 10,614 69 92 762 0 0 24 3,626 15,500

6 3,151 7,778 687 46 804 0 234 24 9,064 21,787

7 3,151 7,778 687 46 804 0 234 24 9,064 21,787

8 3,151 7,778 687 46 804 0 234 24 9,064 21,787

9 315 10,614 69 111 762 0 0 24 9,064 20,956

10 315 10,614 69 111 762 0 0 24 9,064 20,956

11 315 10,614 69 111 762 0 0 24 9,064 20,956

12 315 10,614 69 46 762 0 0 24 3,626 15,455

13 3,290 8,145 687 46 847 2,469 234 24 9,064 24,805

14 3,151 7,778 660 322 803 0 23 24 9,064 21,817



Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)





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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



7 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)

This section presents the current ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II

SystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover28regionswithintheCallaway

PlantEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.

TheETEforallEvacuationCasesarepresentedinTable71andTable72.Thesetablespresent

theestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegions

forallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregions

arepresentedinTable73andTable74.Table75definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are

generatedat5minuteintervals.

7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation

VoluntaryevacueesarepeoplewithintheEPZinsubareasforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuate

hasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate.Shadowevacuationisthevoluntaryoutward

movementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotective

actionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumed

totakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithintheimpactedEvacuation

Region.

The ETE for the Callaway Plant EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner

showninFigure71.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinsubareasoutsideofthe

evacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,

it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the

area.

Figure72presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.Thisregionextendsradiallyfrom

the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles.  The

populationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthe

samemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).As

discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 6,701 people reside in the Shadow

Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.  See Table 64 for the number of evacuating

vehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.

TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheCallawayPlantlocation,

has a potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region.  All ETE

calculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.

7.2 StagedEvacuation

AsdefinedinNUREG/CR7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:

1. Subareascomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.



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2. Subareascomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedto

shelterinplacewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.

3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinue

preparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.

4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhen

approximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregion

boundary.

5. Noncompliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadow

evacuationpercentageof20%.

SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.

7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation

Figure73throughFigure75illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecase

whentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthewinter,midweek,midday

periodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario6).

Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F.  LOS F is

definedasfollows(HCM2010,page55):

TheHCMusesLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demand

exceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombination

of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory. However,

particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared,

analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several

measuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOS

Fcondition:

•  Demandtocapacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded

duringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);

• DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3

h);and

• SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.These

includemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecific

intersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.

Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;all

othersarelightlyindicated.

At 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE), congestion develops rapidly around

concentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecksasseeninFigure73.RoadsdisplayingLOS

EorlowerareBluffStreetheadingnorthoutofFulton,andUS54justsouthoftheinterchange

with the I70 westbound ramps. It is expected that roadways in and around Fulton have the

mostpronouncedtrafficcongestionbecausethemajorityofbothpopulation(60%oftheEPZ)



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andspecialfacilitiesarelocatedinthisarea.ThereisminorcongestiononCountyRoad459due

to plant workers evacuating south, on I70 due to external traffic, and on a small section of

Route94westboundjustsouthofMokane.

At 1 hour after the ATE, Figure 74 displays fullydeveloped congestion within the population

center of Fulton, and north of Fulton to the junction of US54 and I70. Congestion has

intensifiedalongUS54headingnorthtoI70andBluffStreetindowntownFulton.Additional

congestionhasdevelopedindowntownFultonasmorevehiclesbegintheirevacuationtrips.All

congestion has cleared within a 5 mile radius of the plant, and minor congestion persists on

Route94andI70.

At1hourand45minutesaftertheATE,Figure75showsthatmajorcongestionwithintheEPZ

hassubsided.OnlyminorcongestionexistsalongBusiness54,BluffStandUS54exitingFulton,

and along I70 eastbound. The only roadway exhibiting LOS F is US54 just south of the

intersectionwiththeI70westboundfreewayramps.ThisportionofUS54has2laneswithan

estimated freeflow speed of 50 mph; however, the vehicle demand is greater than the

roadwaycapacityduetothelargenumberofvehiclesexitingFultonattemptingtoaccessI70,

andthelackofatrafficcontrolpointatthisintersection.

At2hoursand20minutesaftertheATE,Figure76showstheentirenetworkfinallyclearofall

congestion.Vehicleswillstillbepresentinthenetworkuntil4hoursand10minutesafterthe

ATEduetothemobilizationtime,butnotenoughtocauseanyLOSlowerthanA.

7.4 EvacuationRates

Evacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure77throughFigure720.Thesefigures

indicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuation

of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions. One figure is presented for each

scenarioconsidered.

AsindicatedinFigure77thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbeginto

evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic

demandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,traffic

exitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.As

moreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadyleftthe

EPZ.  Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining

demand.

Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythese

curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully

saturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandall

willclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntil

the end - thus minimizing evacuation time.  In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable

reflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacity

overtheEPZ.



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results

Table 71 through Table 72 present the ETE values for all 28 Evacuation Regions and all 14

EvacuationScenarios.Table73throughTable74presenttheETEvaluesfor2Mileregionfor

bothstagedandunstaged5Mileregions.Theyareorganizedasfollows:

Table Contents ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the

71 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All

Scenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the

72 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region.  All

Scenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the

73 population within the 2mile Region, to evacuate from that Region

withbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the

74 population within the 2mile Region, to evacuate from that Region

withbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.



The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure73throughFigure76.

Most of the congestion is located in subarea C9 which is beyond the 5mile area; this is

reflectedintheETEstatistics:



x The90thpercentileETEforRegionR01generallyrangesfrom1:15to1:25(higherfor

weekendsnowcase)

x The90thpercentileETEforallotherregionsgenerallyrangebetween1:15and2:10

(higherforsnowcases).



The100thpercentileETEforallRegionsandScenariosmirrorthetripgenerationtimes.This

fact implies that the congestion within the EPZdissipates prior to the end of mobilization, as

displayedinFigure75anddiscussedinSection7.3.

Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 13 in Table 71 indicates that the Special Event - future

constructionofnewnucleargeneratingfacilitiesattheCallawayPlantsite-haslittleimpacton

the ETE for the 90th percentile. The additional 2,469 vehicles for construction workers at the

plantincreasescongestionslightlyonroadwayssurroundingtheplant,butcongestionquickly

dissipates as vehicles are dispersed throughout the network. For most regions, the 90th

percentile ETE for Scenario 13 is slightly shorter than Scenario 6 because the many added

construction worker vehicles in Scenario 13 mobilize at a faster rate than the general

population,bringingdowntheoverallaverageETE.

The Special Event scenario occurs during good weather as this is the most probable weather

condition throughout the year. Any ETE increases for rain or snow can be estimated by



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



comparingeffectsbetweenScenarios6,7,and8andapplyinganydifferencestoScenario13.

Notethatthereisnosignificanttimeincreaseforrainandabouta30minuteincreaseforsnow

atthe90thpercentile.

ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable71indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelaneon

I70 - does not significantly impact ETE because there is no significant congestion on the

mainlineofI70.However,therampstoI70,especiallyUS54,doexperiencecongestion.Thus,

themainlineisunderutilizedandremovingalanedoesnotimpactETE.

7.6 StagedEvacuationResults

Table 73 and Table 74 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R22 through R28 are the same

geographicareasasRegionsR04throughR09andR02,respectively.

To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, one must

show that the ETE for the 2 Mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the

regionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninTable73andTable74,theETE

for the 2 mile region is relatively unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented. The

reason for this is that there is no significant congestion in the 5mile area. Staging the

evacuation to attempt to reduce congestion within the 5mile area provides no benefits to

evacuees from within the 2mile region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those

beyond2miles.

7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETables

The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC

guidancecallsforthe90thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosentablemay

thenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:

1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:

• Season 

Summer

Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)

• DayofWeek

Midweek

Weekend

• TimeofDay

Midday

Evening

• WeatherCondition

GoodWeather

Rain

Snow

• SpecialEvent



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Future Construction of new nuclear generating facilities at the Callaway Plant

Site

RoadClosure(OnelaneonI70isclosed,asexplainedinSection2.2)

• EvacuationStaging

No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered

Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsidered

WhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,

somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:

• Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenot

explicitlyidentifiedinthetables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.

• The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not

explicitly identified in the Tables.  For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for

rainapply.

• Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andsnowarenot

explicitly identified in the Tables.  For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for

snowapply.

• Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows:

Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession.

Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.

• Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or

aretravellingto/fromwork.

2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation

Region:

• Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewind

direction).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:fromtheN,

NNE,NE,etc.

• Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear

power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are

givenbelow:

2Miles(RegionR01)

To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR09)

toEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R10throughR21)

• EnterTable75andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthe

distance that the selected Region extends from the Callaway Plant.  Select the

Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the

plume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.

3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.  Then, for the Scenario

identifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:

• The columns of Table 71 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.  Identify the

propercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.

• Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in

Step2.



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



• The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the

desiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.

Example

ItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:

• Sunday,August10that4:00AM.

• Itisraining.

• Winddirectionisfromthesouthwest(SW).

• Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5mileradius

anddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).

• ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopulationfrom

withintheimpactedRegion.

• Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.

Table71isapplicablebecausethe90thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:

1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable71,itis

seen that there is no match for these descriptors.  However, the clarification given

aboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.

2. Enter Table 75 and locate the Region described as Evacuate 5Mile Radius and

DownwindtotheEPZBoundaryforwinddirectionfromtheSWandreadRegionR16in

thefirstcolumnofthatrow.

3. Enter Table 71 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and

RegionR16.Thisdatacellisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR16;itcontainsthe

ETEvalueof2:00.



CallawayPlant 77 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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 Enclosure Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer

 Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday

Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Construction Roadway Rain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ

R01 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:10 1:15

R02 1:55 1:55 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:50 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:30 1:55

R03 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:00 2:00 2:30 1:55 2:00 2:10

2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:40 1:40 2:50 1:40 1:25 1:45

R05 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:25 1:45

R06 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:40 1:45 1:45 2:50 1:45 1:20 1:45

R07 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:50 1:45 1:20 1:45

R08 1:35 1:35 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:40 1:40 2:40 1:40 1:15 1:35

R09 1:35 1:40 1:35 1:40 1:35 1:35 1:40 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:40 1:35 1:15 1:35

5MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary

R10 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:55 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:35 2:00

R11 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 3:00 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:45 2:00

R12 2:00 2:00 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:45 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:50 2:00

R13 2:00 2:00 1:50 1:55 1:50 2:00 2:05 2:55 1:55 1:55 2:45 1:50 1:55 2:00

R14 2:00 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:25 1:55 1:55 2:25 1:55 1:55 2:05

R15 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 1:55 2:00

R16 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:15 2:00 1:55 2:00

R17 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 1:55 2:00

R18 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 1:55 2:00

R19 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:00

R20 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:50 1:45 2:00 2:00 3:00 1:45 1:50 2:55 1:45 1:40 2:00

R21 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:55 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:35 2:00

StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R22 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:45 1:45 2:50 1:45 1:30 1:45

R23 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:55 1:45 1:35 1:50

R24 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:40 1:45 1:50 2:55 1:45 1:35 1:45

R25 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:35 1:50 1:50 2:55 1:50 1:30 1:50

R26 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:50 2:50 1:45 1:20 1:45

R27 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:15 1:45 1:50 2:50 1:45 1:25 1:45

R28 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:50 1:50 1:50 2:55 1:50 1:40 1:55



CallawayPlant 78 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer

 Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday

Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Construction Roadway Rain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ

R01 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R02 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R03 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:15

2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R06 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R07 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R08 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R09 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

5MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary

R10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R11 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R12 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R13 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R14 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R15 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R16 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R17 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R18 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R19 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R20 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

R21 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 6:10 4:10 4:10 4:10

StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R22 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R23 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R24 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R25 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R26 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R27 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05

R28 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05



CallawayPlant 79 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer



Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Region Midday  Midday  Evening Midday  

 Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Construction Roadway

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegionand5MileRegion

R01 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:10 1:15 R02 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:30 1:25 1:15 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:25 1:15 R05 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:25 1:15 R06 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 R07 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 R08 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 R09 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 1:30 2:15 1:30 1:20 1:15 StagedEvacuation 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R22 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R23 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R24 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R26 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R27 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15 R28 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:25 1:25 2:15 1:25 1:20 1:15

 



CallawayPlant 710 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion

to ULNRC-05881 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer

 Midweek Midweek

Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek

Weekend Weekend

Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)

Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday

Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Construction Roadway Rain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow

Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ofNewUnit Impact

Entire2MileRegionand5MileRegion

R01 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R02 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R06 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R07 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R08 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R09 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R22 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R23 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R24 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R25 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R26 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R27 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00

R28 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:00





CallawayPlant 711 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions

BasicRegions

Subarea

Region Description C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R01 2MileRadius X              

R02 5MileRadius X X X X X X         

R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R04 N,NNE,NE X    X X         

R05 ENE,E,ESE, X X    X         

R06 SE,SSE,S X X X            

R07 SSW,SW,WSW X  X X           

R08 W X   X           

R09 WNW,NW,NNW X   X X          

Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R10 N X X X X X X         X

R11 NNE,NE X X X X X X X        X

R12 ENE X X X X X X X X       

R13 E,ESE X X X X X X X X X      

R14 SE,SSE X X X X X X  X X X     

R15 S X X X X X X  X  X X    

R16 SSW,SW X X X X X X    X X  X  

R17 WSW X X X X X X     X  X X 

R18 W X X X X X X     X X X X 

R19 WNW X X X X X X      X X X X

R20 NW X X X X X X      X  X X

R21 NNW X X X X X X      X   X

StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles

Subarea

Region WindDirectionFrom: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R22 N,NNE,NE X    X X         

R23 ENE,E,ESE X X    X         

R24 SE,SSE,S X X X            

R25 SSW,SW,WSW X  X X           

R26 W X   X           

R27 WNW,NW,NNW X   X X          

R28 NoWind X X X X X X         

Key

Subarea(s)Evacuate Subarea(s)ShelterinPlace ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate



CallawayPlant 712 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure



to ULNRC-05881



Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology



CallawayPlant 713 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure72.CallawayPlantShadowRegion 



CallawayPlant 714 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure73.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate



CallawayPlant 715 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure74.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate



CallawayPlant 716 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure75.CongestionPatternsat1Hourand45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate



CallawayPlant 717 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure76.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate



CallawayPlant 718 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Summer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure77.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario1forRegionR03





EvacuationTimeEstimates

Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure78.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario2forRegionR03





CallawayPlant 719 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Summer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario3forRegionR03





EvacuationTimeEstimates

Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario4forRegionR03



CallawayPlant 720 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario5forRegionR03





EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario6forRegionR03



CallawayPlant 721 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario7forRegionR03





EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario8forRegionR03



CallawayPlant 722 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario9forRegionR03





EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario10forRegionR03



CallawayPlant 723 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario11forRegionR03





EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario12forRegionR03



CallawayPlant 724 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



EvacuationTimeEstimates

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Good,Construction(Scenario13) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario13forRegionR03







EvacuationTimeEstimates

Summer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14) 2MileRing 5MileRing EntireEPZ 90% 100%

30 25 VehiclesEvacuating 20 15 (Thousands) 10 5

0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)



Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimates-Scenario14forRegionR03



CallawayPlant 725 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



8 TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES

Thissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtime

estimates for transit vehicles. The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three

populationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuch

asschools,medicalfacilities,and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of

passengercars(pcs).Thepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamis

representedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopcs.

Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristics

ofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.

Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.

Specifically:

• Busdriversmustbealerted

• Theymusttraveltothebusdepot

• Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacility

Theseactivitiesconsumetime.Baseddiscussionwithoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbus

mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes (30 minutes for Osage County)

extendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobe

evacuated.

Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizationactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseis

the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school

prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of

evacuations have concluded that this bonding process of uniting families is universally

prevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.Thecurrent

public information disseminated to residents of the Callaway Plant EPZ indicates that in the

event of an emergency, schoolchildren will be evacuated to their schools specific reception

center where they can be picked up by their parents. As discussed in Section 2, this study

assumes a fast breaking general emergency. Therefore, children are evacuated to reception

centers. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying

the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a

subsequent wave to the EPZ to evacuate the transitdependent population.  This report

providesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheir

parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses

required.Itisassumedthatchildrenatdaycarecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardians

andthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedin

Section5.

TheprocedureforcomputingtransitdependentETEisto:

• Estimatedemandfortransitservice



CallawayPlant 81 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



• Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions

• EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtotheschoolreceptioncenters

8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate

The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the

populationrequiringtransitservice:

• Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.

• Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableat

thetimetheevacuationisadvised.

Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnot

expectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.

Table81presentsestimatesoftransitdependentpeople.Note:

• Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.  For those

evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered,

separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren. The actual need for

transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.  However,

estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.

• It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transitdependent persons

willevacuatebyridesharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly

80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheir

own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends.  Other documents report that

approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride

sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit

dependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002.

Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransitdependentpersonsisbasedonan

estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run.  Transit

vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children (roughly equivalent to 40

adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the

numberofadultseatstakenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverage

load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent.  Thus, if the actual demand for service

exceeds the estimates of Table 81 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be

accommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.







Table81indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor296people.Therefore,atotalof

10busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.



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Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublic

transitorrideshare,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheCallawayPlantEPZ:

   

Where,

A=Percentofhouseholdswithcommuters

C=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter









Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:

• Allmembers(1.33avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(2.41%)willevacuateby

publictransitorrideshare.Theterm8,405(numberofhouseholds)x1.33x0.0241,

accountsforthesepeople.

• ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(18.91%),whoareathome,equal(1.541).

The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (8,405 x

0.1891 x 0.60 x 0.52), as 60% of EPZ households have a commuter, 52% of which

wouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswho

will evacuate by public transit or rideshare is equal to the product of these two

terms.

• ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(41.85%),whoareathome,equal

(2.43-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto

8,405x0.4185x(0.60x0.52)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublic

transit or rideshare is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is

squaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).

• Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit

vehicles.

• ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHH

withnovehicles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.

TheestimateoftransitdependentpopulationinTable81farexceedsthenumberofregistered

transitdependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection

8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajority

of the transitdependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register

withtheirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

 



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



8.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand

Table 82 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct

evacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe20112012schoolyear.Thisinformationwas

provided by the local county emergency management agencies.  The column in Table 82

entitledBusRunsRequiredspecifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthe

followingsetofassumptionsandestimates:

• Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.

• Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(as

discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR7002), the estimate of buses required for

schoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.

• Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50

formiddleandhighschools.

• Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their

privatevehicles.

• Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.

ItisrecommendedthatthecountiesintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsare

contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot (approximately one hour after the

Advisory to Evacuate), to ascertainthe currentestimate ofstudents to be evacuated.  In this

way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed.

Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildren

being picked up by their parents,can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those

personswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoridesharing.

Table83presentsalistoftheschoolreceptioncentersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Students

will be transported to these centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their

respectivefamilies.

8.3 SpecialFacilityDemand

Table 84 presents the census of special facilities in the EPZ. Approximately 17 people have

beenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilitiesthatwillevacuate.Thecapacity

and current census for each facility were provided by the county emergency management

agenciesandfromthefacilitiesthemselves.ThisdataispresentedinTable84.

ThetransportationrequirementsforthespecialfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable

84. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be

accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15

wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientsper

trip.

8.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople

EPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetime



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

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oftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationof

busesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat

inefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsome

busestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,

tocompleteasecondwaveofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,the

ETE for the transitdependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit

evacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03

(the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the

impactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.

When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the

transitdependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbe

dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to

boardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepickuppoints.

Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Trips were developed using both good weather and

adverse weather conditions. Figure 81 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit

operations. TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure

81.

Activity:MobilizeDrivers(ABC)

MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveat

thefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergency

with no observable indication before the fact, drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be

contacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransitdependentfacilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather - 100 minutes when raining, 110

minuteswhensnowing(30,35and40minutesrespectivelyforOsageCounty).

Activity:BoardPassengers(CD)

Based on discussions with offsite agencies,a loading timeof 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain

and25minutesforsnow)forschoolbusesisused.

For multiple stops along a pickup route (transitdependent bus routes) estimation of travel

timemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpickuppoint.The

time,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,a,expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,

v, expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final

speedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:

,

WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,sinfeet,travelledduringthe

deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service

passengers,but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over thedistance, s,

wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:

 



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Assigningreasonableestimates:

• B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,to

boardperstop

• v=25mph=37ft/sec

• a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerate

Then,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespickuptimeperbusrunimplies30stopsper

run,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;total

loadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinsnow.Then

Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(DE)

SchoolEvacuation

TransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZcountyemergencymanagement

agenciesandaresummarizedinTable85.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbuses

neededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transitdependentpopulation,andhomebound

special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5).  The current transportation needs exceed the

resourcesavailable,soasecondwaveevacuation,wheresomebusesreturnintotheEPZtopick

uptheremainderofevacuees,willbeconsidered.

Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesafter

the advisory to evacuate - 90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time (30

minutesand5minutesrespectivelyforOsageCounty)-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftware

discussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusroutesalongthemostlikelypathfromaschool

being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate school reception

center.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschoolto

theEPZboundary.EachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEV

II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5

minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable86(refer

tothemapsofthelinknodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).Dataprovided

byDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes

(i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to

computetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

 



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The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the

schoolsintheEPZisshowninTable87throughTable89forschoolevacuation,andinTable

811 through Table 813 for the transit vehicles evacuating transitdependent persons, which

are discussed later. To comply with state bus speed regulations, the computed speeds are

restrictedto45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.The

traveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeed

and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ.  The travel

time from the EPZ boundary to the Reception Center was computed assuming an average

speedof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.

Table 87 (good weather), Table 88 (rain) and Table 89 (snow) present the following

evacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)The

elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed

timeuntilthebusreachestheSchoolReceptionCenter.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcan

be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities ABC, CD, and DE (For

example: 90 min. + 15 + 3 = 1:50 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes for Bartley Elementary

School,withgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotheSchoolReceptionCenterisdetermined

byaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityEF(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaonme.

EvacuationofTransitDependentPopulation

The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transitdependent evacuees will be

scheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompleted

theirmobilization.AsshowninFigure54(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentofthe

evacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately

90minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

Five separate routes have been identified to service the transitdependent evacuees

throughouttheentireEPZ.Theseroutes(showngraphicallyinFigure82anddescribedinTable

810) were designed by KLD to service the major routes through each subarea and then

proceed to the nearest reception center. It is assumed that residents will walk to and

congregateatthenearestmajorroadtobepickedup.Eachroutehasonebusthatdepartsat

90minutesaftertheATEandasecondbutthatdepartsat110minutesaftertheATE,exceptfor

Route#2whichhastwobusessentateachtimeperiod.Table811(goodweather),Table812

(rain)andTable813(snow)showtheETEbreakdownforeachstepinthetransitdependent



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evacuation process, including a second wave evacuation. The residents taking longer to

mobilize would either be picked up by the later bus on the route or be servicedby a second

waveevacuation.

As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30

individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwith

each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow,

respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pickup routes within the EPZ is estimated using the

UNITES software.  Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds

computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school

evacuation,wheretheyarerestrictedto45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rain

andsnow,respectively.

Table 811 through Table 813 present the transitdependent population evacuation time

estimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainand

snow,respectively.

Forexample,theETEfortheBusRoute4iscomputedas90+9+30=2:10forgoodweather

(roundedtonearest5minutes).Here,9minutesisthetimetotravel4.8milesat30.8mph,the

averagespeedoutputbythemodelforthisrouteat90minutes.TheETEforasecondwave

(discussed below) is presented due to the shortfall of available buses (see Table 85), as

previouslydiscussed.

Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(EF)

ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftware

along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center.  The reception

centersaremappedinFigure101.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZ

does not contribute to the ETE.  For a twowave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be

considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general public.  Assumed bus

speedsof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rain,andsnow,respectively,willbe

appliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransitdependentpopulation.

Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(FG)

Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.

Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(GC)

The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a second wave evacuation of transit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransitdependentpeoplewho

mobilized more quickly.  The first wave of transitdependent people depart the bus, and the

bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltime

tothereceptioncenter.

ThesecondwaveETEforthebusrouteservicingSubareaC9(routenumber4)iscomputedas



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followsforgoodweather:

• Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat2:45ingoodweather(2:10toexitEPZ+35minute

traveltimetoreceptioncenter).

• Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10minute rest: 15

minutes.

• BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:35minutes(equaltotraveltimeto

receptioncenter)+9minutes(4.8miles@33mph)=44minutes

• Buscompletespickupsalongroute:30minutes.

• BusexitsEPZattime2:10+0:35+0:15+0:44+0:30=4:15(roundedtonearest5

minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transitdependent bus routes are

providedinTable811throughTable813.

The average ETE for a onewave and twowave evacuation of transitdependent people both

exceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90thpercentile.

The relocation of transitdependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care

centers,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.

EvacuationofPersonsfromSpecialFacilities

Thebusoperationsforthisgrouparesimilartothoseforschoolevacuationexcept:

• Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythe

patients.

• Thepassengerloadingtimewillbelongeratapproximatelyoneminuteperpatient

toaccountforthetimetomovepatientsfrominsidethefacilitytothevehicles.

Table84indicatesthatonly2busrunsareneededtoserviceallofthespecialfacilitiesinthe

EPZ. According to Table 85 the counties can collectively provide 120 buses, 6 vans, 3 wheel chairaccessiblebuses,7wheelchairaccessiblevansand12ambulances.Therearenotenough

buses for a single wave evacuation of all schools, transitdependent and special facility

populations.Assuch,secondwaveETEareprovidedforspecialfacilities.

Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutes.Specially

trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the

evacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minute

timeframe.

BasedonthelocationsofthemedicalfacilitiesinFigureE2,itisestimatedthatbuseswillhave

totravel1mileonaveragetoleavetheEPZforfacilitiesthatdonotshelterinplace.Assuming

anaveragespeedof35mph,thetraveltimeoutoftheEPZisapproximately2minutes.

The ETE for buses evacuating ambulatory patients at medical facilities is the sum of the

mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. For example,

thecalculationofETEforCallawayCommunityHospitalwith8ambulatoryresidentsis:

 ETE:90+8x1+2=100min.or1:40.



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Itisassumedthatspecialfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedical

facilities. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the

receptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityisnotconsideredinthisanalysis.

8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulation

The county emergency management agencies have a combined registration for transit dependent and homebound special needs persons. Based on data provided by the counties,

thereareanestimated26homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithintheCallawayCountyportion

oftheEPZand5peoplewithintheOsageCountyportionoftheEPZwhorequiretransportation

assistance to evacuate. Out of the 31 total special needs persons there are 19 ambulatory

persons,11wheelchairboundpersonsand1bedriddenperson.

ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersons

WheelChairBuses

Section8.3identifiesawheelchairbuscapacityof15wheelchairspertrip.Asdiscussedabove,

there are 11 homebound special needs persons within the EPZ requiring a wheelchair bus.

Whileonly1wheelchairbusisneededfromacapacityperspective,if2busesweredeployed

they would need to make a maximum of 6 stops (assuming 1 person per HH).  It is

conservatively assumed that the households are spaced 3 miles apart, and that van speeds

approximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerin

snow).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthespeedof45mph

after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5

minutes.

a. Assumed mobilization time for wheelchair bus resources to arrive at first household:

1:30(1:40inrain;1:50insnow)

b. Loadingtimeatfirsthousehold:5minutes

c. Traveltosubsequenthouseholds:5@9minutes(3miles@20mph,18mphinrain;16

mphinsnow)=45minutes(50minutesinrain;56minutesinsnow)

d. Loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds:5@5minutes=25minutes

e. Travel time to EPZ boundary at 2:45 (3:00rain; 3:15 - snow):  5 miles @ 45 mph (40

mph-rain;35mphsnow)=7minutes(8minutes-rain;9minutessnow)

ETE:1:30+5+45+25+7=2:55

RainETE:1:40+5+50+25+8=3:10

SnowETE:1:50+5+56+25+9=3:25

Buses

AssumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat19householdsneedtobe

serviced.Whileonly1busisneededfromacapacityperspective,if4busesaredeployedto

servicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequire5stopsmaximum.Becausethereare

insufficient buses available, buses evacuating schools will return to the EPZ to service

homeboundspecialneedspersonsrequiringbustransportation.ThefollowingoutlinestheETE



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



calculations:

1. Assume4busesaredeployed,eachwithabout5stops,toserviceatotalof19HH.

2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:

a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location: 3:04 (2:21 average time for buses to

arriveatreceptioncenters,5minutestounload,10minutedriverrest,and28

minutestotravelbacktotheEPZforgoodweather).

b. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:2minutes

c. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:4@9minutes=36minutes

d. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:4@2minutes=8minutes

e. TraveltoEPZboundary:7minutes.

ETE:3:04+2+36+8+7=4:00

RainETE:3:28+2+40+8+8=4:25

SnowETE:3:52+2+45+8+9=4:55

The estimated travel time between pickups is based on a distance of 3 miles @ 20 mph = 9

minutes(speedsare10%and20%lowerforrainandsnow,respectively).Ifplannedproperly,

the pickup locations for each bus run should be clustered within the same general area. The

estimated travel time to the EPZ boundary is based on a distance of 5 miles @ 45 mph = 7

minutes(assumedmaximumbusspeed).Itisassumedthatmobilizationtimetofirstpickupis

10minuteslongerinrainand20minuteslongerinsnow.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5

minutes.

Assuming all HH members (avg. HH size equals 2.40 persons - Figure F1) travel with the

disabled person yields 5 x 2.40 = 12 persons per bus.  From the perspective of bus capacity,

fewer buses could be deployed. For example, 2 buses, each servicing about 10 HH could

accommodate2.40x10=24peopleeach,buttheadditional5stopswouldadd5x(9+2)=55

minutestotheETE.

Ambulances

It is estimated that 1 ambulance will be needed to evacuate the 1 homebound bedridden

personwithintheEPZ.

Asdiscussedabove,thereare12ambulancesavailablewithintheEPZandonly1isrequiredto

evacuateahomeboundbedriddenpatientwithintheEPZ(seeTable85).

Ambulancemobilizationtimeandloadingtimeareassumedtobe15minutesperpatientand

has an estimated distance of 5 miles to the EPZ boundary after the stop. It is conservatively

assumedthattheambulancewilltravelat30mph.Mobilizationtimeis5minuteslongerand

travelspeedis10%lessinrain-27mph,andanadditional5minuteslongerand10%lessin

snow-24mph.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.

TheETEarecomputedasfollows:

a. Ambulancearrivesatfirsthousehold:30minutes

b. Loadingtimeatfirsthousehold:15minutes



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c. Ambulancetravelstosecondhousehold:5miles@30mph=10minutes

d. Loadingtimeatsecondhousehold:15minutes

e. TraveltimetoEPZboundary:5miles@45mph=7minutes(40mph,8minutes-rain;

35,9minutessnow)

ETE:30+15+7=0:55

RainETE:40+15+8=1:05

SnowETE:50+15+9=1:15

8.6 CorrectionalFacilities

AsdetailedinTableE9,therearetwocorrectionalfacilitieswithintheEPZ-TheFulton

ReceptionandDiagnosticCenterandtheCallawayCountyJail.Bothofthesefacilitieswill

shelterinplaceintheeventofanevacuation,asperstateplans(2010MissouriNuclear

AccidentPlan,SectionIII.A.16).

8.7 OtherSpecialFacilities

MissouriGirlsTown,aresidentialtreatmentfacilityforgirls,hasitsowntransportation

resourcesandistreatedasapartofthepermanentresidentialpopulation.



CallawayPlant 812 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 (SubsequentWave)

A B C D E F G Time



Event A AdvisorytoEvacuate B BusDispatchedfromDepot C BusArrivesatFacility/PickupRoute D BusDepartsforReceptionCenter E BusExitsRegion F BusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacility

G BusAvailableforSecondWaveEvacuationService Activity AoB DriverMobilization BoC TraveltoFacilityortoPickupRoute CoD PassengersBoardtheBus DoE BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary EoF BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ FoG PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreak

Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations

 



CallawayPlant 813 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure82.TransitDependentBusRoutes 



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table81.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates

to ULNRC-05881



SurveyAverageHH Survey Percent

Size SurveyPercentHH Survey PercentHH Total People Population withIndicatedNo.of Estimated withIndicatedNo.of PercentHH withNon People Estimated Requiring Requiring 2010EPZ Vehicles No.of Vehicles with Returning Requiring Ridesharing Public Public

Population 0 1 2 Households 0 1 2 Commuters Commuters Transport Percentage Transit Transit

20,173 1.33 1.54 2.43 8,405 2.41% 18.91% 41.85% 60% 52% 684 50% 342 1.7%



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table82.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates

BusRuns

Subarea SchoolName Enrollment Required C7 SouthCallawayElementarySchool

C7 SouthCallawayHighSchool 8642 18

C7 SouthCallawayMiddleSchool

C9 BartleyElementarySchool 282 5

C9 BushElementarySchool 370 6

C9 FultonHighSchool 2,129 43

C9 FultonMiddleSchool 580 12

C9 KingdomChristianAcademy 174 4

C9 McIntireElementarySchool 389 6

C9 MissouriSchoolFortheDeaf 80 2

C9 St.PeterCatholicSchool 128 3

1 C9 WestminsterCollege 265 6

1 C9 WilliamWoodsUniversity 223 5

O1 OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict 219 7

TOTAL: 5,703 117

1 Enrollmentnumberreflectsonlythestudentsrequiringbusevacuation.

2 EnrollmentnumberisgroupedbecausedatawasgivenfortheSouthCallawayRIIschooldistrictasawhole.































CallawayPlant 816 KLDEngineering,P.C.

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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table83.SchoolReceptionCenters

School ReceptionCenter

OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict

SouthCallawayElementarySchool

SouthCallawayHighSchool LincolnUniversity

SouthCallawayMiddleSchool

BartleyElementarySchool

BushElementarySchool

FultonHighSchool

FultonMiddleSchool

KingdomChristianAcademy

McIntireElementarySchool UniversityofMissouri

MissouriSchoolFortheDeaf

St.PeterCatholicSchool

WestminsterCollege

WilliamWoodsUniversity



CallawayPlant 817 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table84.SpecialFacilityTransitDemand

to ULNRC-05881 Wheel

Wheel chair

Cap Current Ambu chair Bed Bus Bus Ambulance

Subarea FacilityName Municipality acity Census latory Bound ridden Runs Runs Runs

C7 RiverviewNursingCenter Mokane ShelterinPlace

C9 AshburyHeightsIndependentLiving Fulton ShelterinPlace

C9 BristolManor Fulton ShelterinPlace

C9 CallawayCommunityHospital Fulton 39 8 8 0 0 1 0 0

C9 ChurchillTerrace Fulton 44 9 9 0 0 1 0 0

C9 FultonNursing&Rehab Fulton ShelterinPlace

C9 FultonStateHospital Fulton ShelterinPlace

TOTAL: 83 17 17 0 0 2 0 0







CallawayPlant 818 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table85.SummaryofTransportationResources

Transportation Buses Vans Wheelchair Wheelchair Ambulances

Resource Buses Vans

ResourcesAvailable

CallawayCountyAmbulanceDistrict     4

ChurchillTerrace    1 

FirstStudentTransportation 10    

FultonSchoolDistrict 32  2  

HoltsSummit     1

JimWright,Chamois 5    

MontgomeryCounty    3 3

NorthCallawayRISchools 25    

OsageRISchoolDistrict 2 3   

RISchoolDistrict,Hermann 13    

RiverviewNursingCenter    1 

RudroffBusCompanyLinn 24    

SERVE    2 

SouthCallawayRIISchoolDistrict 21  1  

SwartzBusCo. 8    

UniversityofMissouriHospital     4

WestminsterCollege 6    

WilliamWoodsUniversity 4 3   

TOTAL: 150 6 3 7 12

ResourcesNeeded

Schools(Table82): 117    

MedicalFacilities(Table84): 3    

TransitDependentPopulation(Table810): 12    

HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 1  1 1 1

CorrectionalFacilities(Section8.6):     

TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 133 0 1 1 1

















CallawayPlant 819 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table86.BusRouteDescriptions

Bus

Route

Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary

938,618,788,551,550,549,548,547,546,545,

1 OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict 544,543,542,541,540,539,538,537,536,535,

534,533,532,531

SouthCallawayHighSchool,SouthCallaway

428, 429, 430, 431, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190,

2 MiddleSchool,andSouthCallawayElementary

197,191,192

School

4 FultonHighSchool 399,400,48,40,45

5 McIntireElementarySchool 397,398,58,57,56,59

780, 982, 779, 776, 865, 387, 388, 813, 394, 395,

6 BushElementarySchool

396,397,398,58,57,56,59

7 BartleyElementarySchool 402,403,404,405,963,66,441,65,64,67

8 St.PeterCatholicSchool 780,384,385,386,809,399,400,48,40,45

9 WilliamWoodsUniversity 810,386,809,399,400,48,40,45

10 KingdomChristianAcademy 388,813,394,395,396,397,398,58,57,56,59

11 FultonMiddleSchool 779,776,386,809,399,400,48,40,45

12 WestminsterCollege 397,398,58,57,56,59

13 MissouriSchoolfortheDeaf 863,815,813,394,395,396,397,398,58,57,56,59

420, 817, 419, 418, 417, 416, 415, 414, 413, 409,

14 TransitDependentBusRoute#3 408, 407, 406, 390, 967, 966, 394, 395, 396, 985,

979,765,766,767,768,832,769,770,890

348, 349, 350, 351, 352, 353, 354, 355, 356, 357,

358, 359, 360, 361, 362, 363, 364, 365, 366, 367,

15 TransitDependentBusRoute#2 368, 369, 370, 371, 372, 373, 374, 375, 376, 377,

378, 379, 232, 393, 392, 391, 390, 967, 966, 394,

395,396,397,398,58,57,56,59

617, 678, 618, 788, 551, 552, 553, 911, 554, 555,

16 TransitDependentBusRoute#5

556,557,910,558,559,560,561,562,563,564,565

703, 688, 687, 320, 321, 322, 323, 324, 325, 326,

17 TransitDependentBusRoute#1 327, 328, 329, 330, 335, 331, 332, 333, 334, 181,

182,183,184,185,186,187,188,189,190,197,191

18 TransitDependentBusRoute#4 408, 407, 406, 390, 815, 813, 388, 387, 865, 776,

386,809,399,400,48,40,45



CallawayPlant 820 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather

to ULNRC-05881 Travel

Time

Travel from

Dist.To Timeto Dist.EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.C. R.C. R.C.

School Time (min) (mi.) (mph) (min.) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

CALLAWAYCOUNTYSCHOOLS

BartleyElementarySchool 90 15 1.5 40.8 3 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

BushElementarySchool 90 15 2.4 31.3 5 1:50 22.6 31 2:25

FultonHighSchool 90 15 1.6 43.5 3 1:50 26.1 35 2:25

FultonMiddleSchool 90 15 2.1 35.6 4 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

KingdomChristianAcademy 90 15 2.1 34.9 4 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

McIntireElementarySchool 90 15 1.0 45.0 2 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

MissouriSchoolfortheDeaf 90 15 1.7 31.1 4 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

SouthCallawayElementarySchool 90 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:55 17.7 24 2:20

SouthCallawayHighSchool 90 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:55 17.7 24 2:20

SouthCallawayMiddleSchool 90 15 6.0 45.0 8 1:55 17.7 24 2:20

St.PeterCatholicSchool 90 15 3.0 33.3 6 1:55 26.1 35 2:30

WestminsterCollege 90 15 1.1 45.0 2 1:50 22.6 31 2:20

WilliamWoodsUniversity 90 15 3.0 36.3 5 1:50 26.1 35 2:25

OSAGECOUNTYSCHOOLS

OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict 30 5 9.1 45.0 13 0:50 30.0 40 1:30

MaximumforEPZ: 1:55 Maximum: 2:30

AverageforEPZ: 1:50 Average: 2:20



 



CallawayPlant 821 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table88.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain

to ULNRC-05881 Travel

Time

Travel from

Dist.To Timeto Dist.EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.C. R.C. R.C.

School Time (min) (mi.) (mph) (min.) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

CALLAWAYCOUNTYSCHOOLS

BartleyElementarySchool 100 20 1.5 37.0 3 2:05 22.6 34 2:40

BushElementarySchool 100 20 2.4 29.2 6 2:10 22.6 34 2:40

FultonHighSchool 100 20 1.6 40.0 3 2:05 26.1 40 2:45

FultonMiddleSchool 100 20 2.1 33.2 4 2:05 22.6 34 2:40

KingdomChristianAcademy 100 20 2.1 32.3 4 2:05 22.6 34 2:40

McIntireElementarySchool 100 20 1.0 40.0 2 2:05 22.6 34 2:40

MissouriSchoolfortheDeaf 100 20 1.7 29.3 4 2:05 22.6 34 2:40

SouthCallawayElementarySchool 100 20 6.0 40.0 9 2:10 17.7 27 2:40

SouthCallawayHighSchool 100 20 6.0 40.0 9 2:10 17.7 27 2:40

SouthCallawayMiddleSchool 100 20 6.0 40.0 9 2:10 17.7 27 2:40

St.PeterCatholicSchool 100 20 3.0 31.3 6 2:10 26.1 40 2:50

WestminsterCollege 100 20 1.1 40.0 2 2:05 22.6 34 2:40

WilliamWoodsUniversity 100 20 3.0 34.1 6 2:10 26.1 40 2:50

OSAGECOUNTYSCHOOLS

OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict 35 10 9.1 40.0 13 1:00 30.0 45 1:45

MaximumforEPZ: 2:10 Maximum: 2:50

AverageforEPZ: 2:05 Average: 2:40

 



CallawayPlant 822 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table89.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Snow

to ULNRC-05881 Travel

Time

Travel from

Dist.To Timeto Dist.EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.C. R.C. R.C.

School Time (min) (mi.) (mph) (min.) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

CALLAWAYCOUNTYSCHOOLS

BartleyElementarySchool 110 25 1.5 32.9 3 2:20 22.6 39 3:00

BushElementarySchool 110 25 2.4 26.3 6 2:25 22.6 39 3:00

FultonHighSchool 110 25 1.6 35.0 3 2:20 26.1 45 3:05

FultonMiddleSchool 110 25 2.1 29.9 5 2:20 22.6 39 3:00

KingdomChristianAcademy 110 25 2.1 28.8 5 2:20 22.6 39 3:00

McIntireElementarySchool 110 25 1.0 35.0 2 2:20 22.6 39 3:00

MissouriSchoolfortheDeaf 110 25 1.7 26.2 4 2:20 22.6 39 3:00

SouthCallawayElementarySchool 110 25 6.0 35.0 11 2:30 17.7 31 3:00

SouthCallawayHighSchool 110 25 6.0 35.0 11 2:30 17.7 31 3:00

SouthCallawayMiddleSchool 110 25 6.0 35.0 11 2:30 17.7 31 3:00

St.PeterCatholicSchool 110 25 3.0 28.0 7 2:25 26.1 45 3:10

WestminsterCollege 110 25 1.1 35.0 2 2:20 22.6 39 3:00

WilliamWoodsUniversity 110 25 3.0 30.6 6 2:25 26.1 45 3:10

OSAGECOUNTYSCHOOLS

OsageCountyChamoisR1SchoolDistrict 40 15 9.1 35.0 13 1:15 30.0 52 2:05

MaximumforEPZ: 2:30 Maximum: 3:10

AverageforEPZ: 2:20 Average: 3:00

 



CallawayPlant 823 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table810.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes

to ULNRC-05881 No.of Length

Route Buses RouteDescription (mi.)

1 2 ServicingSubareasC1,C5,C6,andC7alongMissouriCCtoStateRt.94toLincolnUniversity 14.0 2 4 ServicingSubareasC2,C8,andC9alongMissouriOtoUniversityofMissouri 12.5 3 2 ServicingSubareasC8andC9alongStateHighwayCtoUniversityofMissouri 11.2 4 2 ServicingSubareaC9alongStateRdCtoBUS54toUniversityofMissouri 4.8 5 2 ServicingSubareasO1andG1alongStateRt.100toHermannMiddleSchool 10.0





Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather

OneWave TwoWave

Dist.EPZ

Bus Route Route Bdryto Travel Route

Route Group Length Speed Travel Pickup R.C. Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Number Number Mobilization (miles) (mph) Time Time ETE (miles) Rec.Ctr Unload Rest Time Time ETE

1 90 14.0 45.0 19 30 2:20 17.7 24 5 10 42 30 4:10

1

2 110 14.0 45.0 19 30 2:40 17.7 24 5 10 42 30 4:30

1 90 12.5 40.6 18 30 2:20 22.6 30 5 10 48 30 4:25

2

2 110 12.5 40.3 19 30 2:40 22.6 30 5 10 49 30 4:45

1 90 11.2 42.7 16 30 2:20 26.1 35 5 10 50 30 4:30

3

2 110 11.2 42.5 16 30 2:40 26.1 35 5 10 51 30 4:50

1 90 4.8 30.8 9 30 2:10 26.1 35 5 10 44 30 4:15

4

2 110 4.8 31.7 9 30 2:30 26.1 35 5 10 44 30 4:35

1 90 10.0 45.0 13 30 2:15 11.0 15 5 10 31 30 3:45

5

2 110 10.0 45.0 13 30 2:35 11.0 15 5 10 28 30 4:05

MaximumETE: 2:40 MaximumETE: 4:50

AverageETE: 2:30 AverageETE: 4:25





CallawayPlant 824 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure

 Table812.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain 

to ULNRC-05881 OneWave TwoWave

Dist.EPZ

Bus Route Route Bdryto Travel Route

Route Group Length Speed Travel Pickup R.C. Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Number Number Mobilization (miles) (mph) Time Time ETE (miles) Rec.Ctr Unload Rest Time Time ETE

1 100 14.0 40.0 21 40 2:45 17.7 27 5 10 48 40 4:55

1

2 120 14.0 40.0 21 40 3:05 17.7 27 5 10 48 40 5:15

1 100 12.5 36.9 20 40 2:45 22.6 34 5 10 54 40 5:05

2

2 120 12.5 37.0 20 40 3:05 22.6 34 5 10 53 40 5:25

1 100 11.2 39.1 17 40 2:40 26.1 39 5 10 57 40 5:10

3

2 120 11.2 39.0 17 40 3:00 26.1 39 5 10 56 40 5:30

1 100 4.8 28.8 10 40 2:35 26.1 39 5 10 49 40 4:55

4

2 120 4.8 28.5 10 40 2:55 26.1 39 5 10 48 40 5:15

1 100 10.0 40.0 15 40 2:35 11.0 17 5 10 32 40 4:20

5

2 120 10.0 40.0 15 40 2:55 11.0 17 5 10 32 40 4:40

MaximumETE: 3:05 MaximumETE: 5:30

AverageETE: 2:50 AverageETE: 5:05



















CallawayPlant 825 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-Snow

to ULNRC-05881 OneWave TwoWave

Dist.EPZ

Bus Route Route Bdryto Travel Route

Route Group Length Speed Travel Pickup R.C. Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Number Number Mobilization (miles) (mph) Time Time ETE (miles) Rec.Ctr Unload Rest Time Time ETE

1 110 14.0 35.0 24 50 3:05 17.7 30 5 10 54 50 5:35

1

2 130 14.0 35.0 24 50 3:25 17.7 30 5 10 54 50 5:55

1 110 12.5 32.5 23 50 3:05 22.6 39 5 10 62 50 5:50

2

2 130 12.5 32.6 23 50 3:25 22.6 39 5 10 61 50 6:10

1 110 11.2 34.6 19 50 3:00 26.1 45 5 10 64 50 5:55

3

2 130 11.2 34.5 19 50 3:20 26.1 45 5 10 64 50 6:15

1 110 4.8 25.9 11 50 2:55 26.1 45 5 10 55 50 5:40

4

2 130 4.8 25.9 11 50 3:15 26.1 45 5 10 56 50 6:00

1 110 10.0 35.0 17 50 3:00 11.0 19 5 10 36 50 5:00

5

2 130 10.0 35.0 17 50 3:20 11.0 19 5 10 36 50 5:20

MaximumETE: 3:25 MaximumETE: 6:15

AverageETE: 3:15 AverageETE: 5:50





CallawayPlant 826 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 9 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY

Thissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesigned

to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic.  The resources required to implement this

strategyinclude:

• Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic

guides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).

• TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.These

devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control

Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the

U.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,

which is available online: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the

officialPDFversion.

• A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a

formatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.

Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:

1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.

2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakes

themsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflow

ofotherevacuees.

We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to

indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.  There are always

legitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forexample:

• Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamily

memberspriortoevacuating.

• Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.

• Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.

The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound

judgmentbythetrafficguide.

 



CallawayPlant 91 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:

1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergency

plansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR7002.

2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.

This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that

experience pronounced congestion. Any critical intersections that are not

identifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs

3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.

4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.

Trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and are aware of

the likely evacuation traffic patterns should review the control tactics at the

suggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs.

5. PrioritizationofTCPsandACPs.

ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamore

pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and

ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close

proximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizing

potentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepower

plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/county emergency

managementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.

It is recommended that the control tactics identified in Appendix G be reviewed by the state

and county emergency planners, and local and state police.  Specifically the number and

locations of the suggested TCPs and ACPs should be reviewed in detail, and the indicated

resourcerequirementsshouldbereconciledwithcurrentassets.

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and

equipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)

can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions,

routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedoutsideoftheEPZ

towarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfrom

the power plant.  Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to

evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information

Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can

providetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginshistrip,whileon

board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide

informationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefitthe

evacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitate

theevacuationprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.



TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsite

agencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.



CallawayPlant 92 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be

reviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.

TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatallexternalexternaltripsareinterdictedand

divertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.

All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are

assumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.

Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and

operations.



CallawayPlant 93 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 10 EVACUATIONROUTES

Evacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:

• RoutingfromasubareabeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionand

thenceoutoftheEPZ.

• RoutingoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.

EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.

This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the

plant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoas

to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.

SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.

The routing of transitdependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers is

designedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutes

crosstheEPZboundary.

Figure101isamapshowingthegeneralpopulationandschoolreceptioncentersforevacuees.

ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure102.

It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate reception center and

subsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transitdependentevacueesaretransported

tothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.





CallawayPlant 101 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure101.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters 



CallawayPlant 102 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Figure102.EvacuationRouteMap



CallawayPlant 103 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 11 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS

Thereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneed

toclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillance

cantakeseveralforms.

1. Traffic control personnel, located at TrafficControl and Access Controlpoints, provide

fixedpointsurveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along welldefined paths to ensure coverage of

thosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.

3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopteror

fixedwingaircraft,ifavailable.

4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirect

fieldreportsofroadblockages.

TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZas

well as the area around its periphery. It is the responsibility of the Counties to support an

emergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositionto

respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify,

andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.

TowVehicles

Inalowspeedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalowspeed

collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled

vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in

other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities

suchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described

above,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattow

truckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclocationswithin,orjustoutside,the

EPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat:

x Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes.

x Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counterflow relative to evacuating

traffic.

Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagencies

encouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.







CallawayPlant 111 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



12 CONFIRMATIONTIME

Itisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepublicis

complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.  Callaway County is currently in the process of

acquiring a new vendor for the use of reverse 911.  Confirming evacuation would take an

estimated30minutesusingthereverse911method.Whilethismethodisnotyetavailable,we

suggestusingthistemporaryapproach.

The procedure we suggest employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The

size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply

with the Advisory to Evacuate.  We believe it is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of

estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply

withtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable121)

toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.

Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,which

iswhenapproximately90percentofevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(see

Table59).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsand

thelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.

As indicated in Table 121, approximately 71/2 person hours are needed to complete the

telephone survey.  If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of

telephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentsetofsubareas),thenthe

confirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thus,theconfirmation

shouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbe

neededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionoftheEPZ.Useofmodern

automated computer controlled dialing equipment can significantly reduce the manpower

requirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.

Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintain

a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at all

times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and should be periodically updated. As

indicatedabove,theconfirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil21/2hoursaftertheAdvisoryto

Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize. This 21/2hour

timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and

preparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.

Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,then

thetelephonesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocess

iscompleted.

Other techniques should also be considered.  After traffic volumes decline, the personnel

manningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirm

evacuationactivities. 



CallawayPlant 121 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Table121.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation

ProblemDefinition

Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that

havenotevacuated.

Reference:

 Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971

Given:

x No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=8,500

x Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20

x Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05

x Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)



ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,

 



Finitepopulationcorrection:





Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of thepopulation

hasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisoryto

Evacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,nF=211.



Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecalls

Assume: 

x Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds

x Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds

x Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec.

x Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.



PersonHours:





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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXA

GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS

TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms

Term Definition

AnalysisNetwork  Agraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysical

roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and



nodes.

Link A network link represents a specific, onedirectional section of

roadway.  A link has both physical (length, number of lanes,

topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages,

servicerate,freeflowspeed)characteristics.

MeasuresofEffectiveness Statisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.

Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network

links.  A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of

servicetimetoeachapproachlink.

Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow

Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles

perhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotravelto

theirrespectivedestinations.

PrevailingRoadwayand Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,

TrafficConditions  composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions

  (weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).

ServiceRate  Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn

maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the



prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or

vehiclesperhour(vph).

ServiceVolume  Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of

roadway in one direction during a specified time period with



operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service

VolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).

ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).

SignalCycleLength  Thetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.

Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.

SignalInterval Asinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationis

expressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequence



ofsignalintervals,usuallygreen,yellow,red.



CallawayPlant A1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Term Definition

SignalPhase  A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a

particular combination of traffic movements on selected



approaches to the intersection.  The phase duration is expressed

inseconds.

Traffic(Trip)Assignment Aprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayasto

  satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel

 from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination)

and to optimize some stated objective or combination of

objectives.  In general, the objective is stated in terms of

minimizing a generalized "cost".  For example, "cost" may be

expressedintermsoftraveltime.

TrafficDensity Thenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysection

of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per



mile(vpm).

Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofalltrafficgenerated

  at the origins.  The result often takes the form of a Trip Table,

 whichisamatrixoforigindestinationtrafficvolumes.

TrafficSimulation Acomputermodeldesignedtoreplicatetherealworldoperation

of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics



describing traffic performance. These statistics are called

MeasuresofEffectiveness.

TrafficVolume Thenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinone

direction,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,



trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.

TravelMode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air

travelmodes.

TripTableorOrigin A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number

DestinationMatrix oftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtime

period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its



specifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesper

hour(vph)orinvehicles.

TurningCapacity Thecapacityassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstream

whichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatan



intersection.





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APPENDIXB

DTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel



Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL

This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named

DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in

analyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpathchoiceprinciplesandisone

of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements pathbased Dynamic

TrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOriginDestination(OD)tripsareassignedto

routesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity

information,thetimevaryingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,

asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.

DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestinations)andtheoptimal

dynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetraveling

toitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravelcost.

OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModel

Theunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledin

anevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialrisk

asrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthebestroutes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese

bestroutesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsand

routesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacuee

behavior.

Foreachorigin,asetofcandidatedestinationnodesisselectedbythesoftwarelogicandby

theanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccess

majorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersand

the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This

determinationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip

cost,asdiscussedlater.

Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthe

network(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.

TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimulationmodel,executesasuccession

of sessions wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for

theconditionsthatexistatthattime.

InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRAD

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general

direction away from the location of the hazardous event.  An algorithm was developed to

support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (OD matrix) over time from

one DTRAD session to the next.  Another algorithm executes a mapping from the specified

geometricnetwork(linknodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,

toapathnetworkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsare

performedonthepathnetwork:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthegeometricnetwork.



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DTRADDescription

DTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.

When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available

betweentriporiginsanddestinations.Theproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagating

them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using

macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the

distributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenODdemandsandisamodelofthe

route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road

networkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,timevaryingsignaltimingorreduced

road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time

dependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.

The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the

specificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutes

throughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbythesimulation

model).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetimedependent

conditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofDTRADinclude:

x Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsome

alsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral

efficientroutesforeachODpairfromwhichthedriverschoose.

x Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeofdiscretechoice

modeling.Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdrivers

that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice

modelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPathSizeLogitmodel(PSL).PSL

overcomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatingan

additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the

randomutilityexpression.

x DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the

path network" which is built from the actual physical linknode analysis network. This

executioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimeson

the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the

next.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser.

x Travel cost plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear

summationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralized

costforalink,a,isexpressedas

 ca D ta  E la  J sa ,

where ca is the generalized cost for link a, and D , E , and J are cost coefficients for link

traveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplemental

costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a

dynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel



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computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationto

constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next

simulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.This

way,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyreassignedbasedontimedependentconditions.

TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodels

isdepictedinFigureB1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession

(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopB inthe

figure.

x The supplemental cost is based on the survival distribution (a variation of the

exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a cost term in DTRAD to

representthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:



sa=ln(p),0pl;0



p= 



dn=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplant

d0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk

=Scalingfactor



The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region.  Note that the

supplementalcost,sa, oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)the

powerplant.

 



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NetworkEquilibrium



In1952,JohnWardropwrote:

Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchaway

thatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.

TheabovestatementdescribestheUserEquilibriumdefinition,alsocalledtheSelfishDriver

Equilibrium.Itisahypothesisthatrepresentsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeas

drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective

costs.Ithasbeenfoundthatthisequilibriumobjectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealized

bymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,

commuters).Effectively,suchdriverslearnwhichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,

thetrafficenvironmentsettlesdowntoanearequilibriumstate.

Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state.  Consequently, DTRAD was

not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar

situation, who respond in a flexible manner to realtime information (either broadcast or

observed)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

 



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 StartofnextDTRADSession A

Set  Clocktime.

ArchiveSystemStateat  

DefinelatestLinkTurn

Percentages

ExecuteSimulationModelfrom

B time,   (burntime)

ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEat

time,  

ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentages

RetrieveSystemStateat  ;

ApplynewLinkTurnPercents

DTRADiterationconverges?

No Yes Nextiteration Simulatefrom   

(DTAsessionduration)

SetClockto 

B A



FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface



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APPENDIXC

DYNEVTrafficSimulationModel



Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL

The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of

trafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,

queuelength,oneachlink,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtime

step).  The model generates trips from sources and from Entry Links and introduces them

onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time

distributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertime

untilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)

suchasthoselistedinTableC1.

ModelFeaturesInclude:

x Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterative

procedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepfor

thepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles.

x Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedto

estimatethenumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturn

movement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel.

x Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queued

andmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehicle

spillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredand

quantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineach

timestepofthesimulation.Thereisnoverticalstackingofqueuesonalink.

x Any link can accommodate source flow from zones via side streets and parking

facilities that are not explicitly represented.  This flow represents the evacuating trips

thataregeneratedatthesource.

x Therelationbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacity

is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.  If the

available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the

simulator applies a metering rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream

feedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacityisnotexceeded.

x A path network that represents the specified traffic movements from each network

linkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel.

x A twowayinterface with DTRAD:(1) provideslink travel times;(2)receives data that

translatesintolinkturnpercentages.

x ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN

x CalculatesETEstatistics

 



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All traffic simulation models are dataintensive.  Table C2 outlines the necessary input data

elements.

To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway

environment is represented as a network.  The unidirectional links of the network represent

roadway sections: rural, multilane, urban streets or freeways.  The nodes of the network

generallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges

(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).

Figure C1 is an example of a small network representation.  The freeway is defined by the

sequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExit

links,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithin

agridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregradeseparated.



TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII

Measure Units AppliesTo

VehiclesDischarged Vehicles Link,Network,ExitLink

Speed Miles/Hours(mph) Link,Network

Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link

LevelofService LOS Link

Content Vehicles Network

TravelTime Vehiclehours Network

EvacuatedVehicles Vehicles Network,ExitLink

TripTravelTime Vehicleminutes/trip Network

CapacityUtilization Percent ExitLink

Attraction Percentoftotalevacuatingvehicles ExitLink

MaxQueue Vehicles Node,Approach

TimeofMaxQueue Hours:minutes Node,Approach

Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel

RouteStatistics Route

Time(min)

MeanTravelTime Minutes EvacuationTrips;Network

 



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TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel

HIGHWAYNETWORK

x Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers

x Linklengths

x Numberoflanes(upto6)andchannelization

x Turnbays(1to3lanes)

x Destination(exit)nodes

x Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink

x NodeCoordinates(X,Y)

x NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)

GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES

x Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriod

TRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS

x Trafficsignals:linkspecific,turnmovementspecific

x Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated

x Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals)

x StopandYieldsigns

x Rightturnonred(RTOR)

x Routediversionspecifications

x Turnrestrictions

x Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movementspecific)

DRIVERSANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS

x Drivers(vehiclespecific)responsemechanisms:freeflowspeed,dischargeheadway

x Busroutedesignation.

DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT

x Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional)

x DurationofDTAsessions

x Durationofsimulationburntime

x Desirednumberofdestinationnodesperorigin

INCIDENTS

x IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes

x IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks

 



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8011 8009 2 3 8104 8107 6 5 8008 8010 8 9 10 8007 8012 12 11 8006 8005 13 14 8014 15 25 8004 16 24 8024 17 8003 23 22 21 20 8002 Entry,ExitNodesare 19 numbered8xxx

8001



FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork





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C.1 Methodology

C.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagram

It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flowdensity and speeddensity

relationships. Rather than settling for a triangular representation, a more realistic

representation that includes a capacity drop, (IR) at the critical density when flow

conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This

representation,showninFigureC2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthen

alinearreductioninspeedintherange, thedensityatcapacity.Inthe

flowdensityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange, 

whichroughlyrepresentsthestopandgoconditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflow

rate,  corresponding to  is approximated at   A linear relationship

between  completesthediagramshowninFigureC2.TableC3isaglossaryofterms.

The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration

values for each link are: (1) Free speed, ; (2) Capacity,  ; (3) Critical density, 

(4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity, Then,  



 Setting then   for Itcanbe

shownthat     



C.1.2 TheSimulationModel

Thesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceofunitproblems.Eachunitproblemcomputesthe

movementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval

(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC3isarepresentationofthe

unitprobleminthetimedistanceplane.TableC3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedin

thefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.









 











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FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams



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 Distance

  

Down

  



 

Up

me

 







FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0



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TableC3.Glossary

Themaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischarge

Cap

fromalinkwithinatimeinterval.

The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the

E

timeinterval.Theportion,ETI,canreachthestopbarwithintheTI.

The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn

G/C

movementonalink.

h Themeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.

k Densityinvehiclesperlanepermile.

TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,ona



link.

L Thelengthofthelinkinfeet.

Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofa

   

timeinterval.

Thenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoservicea

LN

particularmovementonalink.

  Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.

M Meteringfactor(Multiplier):1.

The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are

    movingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumed

tobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.

Thetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfroma

O

linkoveratimeinterval.

The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged

fromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningof

     

the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;

vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.

The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that

 

executesaparticularturnmovement,x.

 



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Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe

   

[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.

Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovement

  intheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateof

linkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.

R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the capacity

drop when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower

capacityatthatpointisequalto  .

RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement

afterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressed

asvehicles.

  Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).

 Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirst seconds

of a time interval, can reach the stopbar (in the absence of a queue down stream)withinthesametimeinterval.

TI Thetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.

v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of

movingvehiclesonthelink.

 Themeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithin

theTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.

W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link

lengthwhichextendsfromstopbartostopbarandtheblocklength.





 



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The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit

problemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementserviced

oneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationofthe

evacuation.



                     

     

       

1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity, theR-factor,

 andenteringtraffic, usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.

Foreachsubsequentsweep,        arethe

relevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)over

thisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.

Setiterationcounter,n=0,    



2.    usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthe

fundamentaldiagram.

 

      



         



     





3.               

  

4.      





5.   

    

  

    



  

Endif

   



6.   

      



7.     



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9.   

    

    

       

       

10.   

     

     

 

     

     

  

  

      

  

  Endif

Endif

Endif

11.     

where =densityatthebeginningoftheTI

=densityattheendoftheTI

=densityatthemidpointoftheTI

Allvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.



   

    





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12.     

Endif



Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing

spillback.





13.   



The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is:      

where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the

outflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbythe

amount,SB.Thatis,set



    

 

Thismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobe

appliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.



AlgorithmA



This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can

join a standing or discharging queue. For the case

Qb v Q shown,    a queue of

Qe

Qe length,   formed by that portion of  

that reaches the stopbar within the TI, but could

v not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is,

Mb     This queue length,

v

L3     canbeextendedto 

by traffic entering the approach during the current

TI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthe

t1 t3 queue within the TI. A portion of the entering

TI vehicles,  willlikelyjointhequeue.This

analysis calculates      for the input

valuesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN, .



  

 

          

 

      Recognizingthat

thefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefor toobtain:





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Ifthedenominator,    



       

 

The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its

inclusion,here.



C.1.3 LaneAssignment

Theunitproblemissolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessaryto

calculateavalue, ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecified

by,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,then

theproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainunchannelizedlanesonalink,thenan

analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement

specificvirtuallanes,LNx.



C.2 Implementation

C.2.1 ComputationalProcedure

ThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigure

C4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link

independentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststep

istoexecuteanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedso

thatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthe

samenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibleto

guaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.

Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulation

is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of sweeps over all

network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire

network.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthe

contextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSarealldefinedforeachlinksuch

thattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutbound

links.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.

Withineachsweep,processingsolvestheunitproblemforeachturnmovementoneachlink.

WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm



CallawayPlant C13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,if

any,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltiming

needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the

capabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsresponding

tothetimevaryingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.

Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischarge

fromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkatthe

end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:    The

procedure considers each movement separately (multipiping). After all network links are

processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;

meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythenospillbackcondition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the

followingsweep.

Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandSsettledownfor

allnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyundersaturatedorinfoursweeps

in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link

usesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,

the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn

movementforoutputpurposes.Itthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthe

valuesof  forthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesof  attheend

ofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntil

the end of the run. Note that there is no spacediscretization other than the specification of

networklinks.







 



CallawayPlant C14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



SequenceNetworkLinks NextTimestep,ofduration,TI A

Nextsweep;DefineE,M,Sforall

B

Links C NextLink D NextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,

ServiceRate, ;  

GetinputstoUnitProblem:

  ,E

SolveUnitProblem:  

No D

LastMovement?

Yes No LastLink? C

Yes No B

LastSweep?

Yes Calc.,storeallLinkMOE SetupnextTI:

No A

LastTime- step?

Yes DONE



FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)



CallawayPlant C15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general

directionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedto

identifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandonthe

expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically

varyingtheTripTable(ODmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext. 

FigureB1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEV

IIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRADsessions;eachsuchsession

computestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,

   specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfrom

each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the

networkwide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn

percentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.

As indicated in Figure B1, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it

with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the

DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time,

   which lies within the session duration,   . This burn time,    is

selectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechange

in network operations over this burn timeusing the latest set of link turn percentages

computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the

simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to

theorigintime, andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationat

time, AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntilthe

endoftheDYNEVIIrun.

AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.



CallawayPlant C16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXD

DetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE

This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute ETE.  The individual

stepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD1.Eachnumberedstepinthe

descriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.

Step1

ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.Thebase

mapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)from

the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable

topographicbackgroundandtheEPZandsubareaboundaries.

Step2

2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to

estimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatial

distributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Employee

data were estimated using the U.S. Census Bureaus Longitudinal EmployerHousehold

Dynamicsinteractivewebsite1,andfromphonecallstomajoremployers.Transientdatawere

obtainedfromlocal/stateemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstotransient

attractions.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithin

the EPZ was obtained from county and municipal sources, augmented by telephone contacts

withtheidentifiedfacilities.

Step3

A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency

managers, onsite and offsite utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement

agencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,

identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific

requestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.Uniquefeaturesofthe

studyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETE

study.

Step4

Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodetermine

thegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsection

of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at

intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for

pretimedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealistic

valuesofroadwaycapacity.





1 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/



CallawayPlant D1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Step5

A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household

dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuationrelated demographic information of

theEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincluding

theaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredto

performpreevacuationmobilizationactivities.

Step6

A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a linknode analysis

network,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryof

thenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduring

the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other linkspecific

characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input

accordingly. The linknode analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data

were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the

evacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.

Step7

TheEPZissubdividedinto15subareas.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupings

ofsubarea)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of timeofday, dayofweek, seasonal and

weatherrelated conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation

demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week,

timeofyear,andweatherconditions.

Step8

TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentand

distributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototype

evacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.

Step9

After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype

evacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriate

NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the

completenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarningand

error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input

streamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial

evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or

replacethesemodelassigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthe

topology of the analysis highway network.  The model produces link and networkwide

measuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.



CallawayPlant D2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Step10

The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The

examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which

operatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.This

isalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossess

thenecessarypracticalexperiencetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofany

problemsreflectedintheresults.

Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent

locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this

congestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftrip

generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the

physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two

conclusions:

x Theresultsaresatisfactory;or

x Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.

Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebased

upontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresults

of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones.  If the results are

satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13.  Otherwise,

proceedtoStep11.

Step11

There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.  These

treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation

destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce

significantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionsso

as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific

treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major

roadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototype

evacuation case input stream.  All treatments are designed to improve the representation of

evacuationbehavior.

Step12

As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the

modificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnsto

Step9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.

Step13

Evacuationoftransitdependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuation

analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit

vehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEV IIgenerates

routespecific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit



CallawayPlant D3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 dependentandspecialfacilitypopulationgroups.

Step14

The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuser

interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation

distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a

customizedcasespecificdataset.

Step15

AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswere

available,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamic

routingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.

Step16

Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special

facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transitdependent

permanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.

Step17

The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed.  The results were then

documented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR7002.

Step18

Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklistwascompleted.

Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.



CallawayPlant D4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



A Step1 Step10 CreateGISBaseMap ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCase

usingEVANand

DYNEVIIOutput Step2 GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDatafor ResultsSatisfactory StudyArea Step11 Step3 ModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelop

ConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholders TrafficControlTreatments Step4 Step12 FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyArea ModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototype

EvacuationCase Step5 ConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTrip

GenerationCharacteristics B

Step13 Step6 EstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuation

CreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork RoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase

Step14 Step7 GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAll

EvacuationCases DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenarios Step15 Step8 ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAll

CreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStream EvacuationCases Step16 Step9 UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoCompute

ETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes B ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase Step17 Documentation A Step18 CompleteETECriteriaChecklist









FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities



CallawayPlant D5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXE

SpecialFacilityData

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 E. SPECIALFACILITYDATA

Thefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofNovember2011,forspecialfacilitiesthat

arelocatedwithintheCallawayPlantEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,hospitalsand

othermedicalcarefacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedin

the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.  Employment data is included in the

tables for major employers. Each table is grouped by county.  The location of the facility is

defined by its straightline distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center

point of the plant. Maps of each special facility, recreational area, lodging facility, and major

employerarealsoprovided.



CallawayPlant E1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure TableE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ

to ULNRC-05881 Distance Dire Enroll

Subarea SchoolName StreetAddress Municipality Phone Staff

(miles) ction ment

CALLAWAYCOUNTY

SouthCallawayElementary

C7 7.9 SW 10135StateRdC Mokane (573)6765226 40

School

C7 7.9 SW SouthCallawayHighSchool 10135StateRdC Mokane (573)6765227 864 102

C7 7.8 SW SouthCallawayMiddleSchool 10135StateRdC Mokane (573)6765228 67

C9 10.8 WNW BartleyElementarySchool 603SBusiness54 Fulton (573)6425365 282 35

C9 10.5 NW BushElementarySchool 908WoodSt Fulton (573)6422877 370 50

C9 11.7 NW FultonHighSchool 1HornetDr Fulton (573)6422023 2,129 399

C9 10.9 NW FultonMiddleSchool 403East10thSt Fulton (573)6427221 580 65

C9 10.6 NW KingdomChristianAcademy 650East8thSt Fulton (573)6422117 174 21

C9 11.4 WNW McIntireElementarySchool 706HickmanAve Fulton (573)5908500 389 55

C9 10.5 NW MissouriSchoolFortheDeaf 505East5thSt Fulton (573)5924000 80 160

C9 10.8 NW St.PeterCatholicSchool 700StateRoadZ Fulton (573)6422839 128 24

C9 11.3 WNW WestminsterCollege1 501WestminsterAve Fulton (573)6423361 265 80

C9 11.3 NW WilliamWoodsUniversity1 UniversityAve Fulton (800)9953199 223 215

CallawayCountySubtotals: 5,484 1,313 OSAGECOUNTY

Osage County Chamois R1

O1 6.2 S 614PoplarSt Chamois (573)7635393 219 50

SchoolDistrict

OsageCountySubtotals: 219 50

TOTAL: 5,703 1,363 1

Enrollmentnumberreflectsonlythestudentsrequiringbusevacuation.







CallawayPlant E2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure TableE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ

to ULNRC-05881 Ambul Wheel Bed

Distance Dire Cap Current atory chair ridden Subarea (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality Phone acity Census Patients Patients Patients

CALLAWAYCOUNTY

C7 7.8 SW RiverviewNursingCenter 10303StateRoadC Mokane (573)6763136 60 ShelterinPlace

AshburyHeights

C9 11.0 WNW IndependentLiving 704WestChestnutSt Fulton (573)6422015 12 ShelterinPlace

C9 11.2 WNW BristolManor 750SignPainterRd Fulton (573)6427557 12 ShelterinPlace

CallawayCommunity

C9 11.4 WNW Hospital 10NorthHospitalDr Fulton (573)6423376 39 8 8 0 0

C9 11.4 WNW ChurchillTerrace 120HospitalDr Fulton (573)8264179 44 9 9 0 0

C9 11.2 NW FultonNursing&Rehab 1510NorthBluffSt Fulton (573)6420202 100 ShelterinPlace

C9 10.3 NW FultonStateHospital 600East5thSt Fulton (573)5924100 281 ShelterinPlace

CallawayCountySubtotals: 548 17 17 0 0

TOTAL: 548 17 17 0 0





TableE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ

Distance Dire Employees  %Non Employees Subarea (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality Phone (maxshift) EPZ (NonEPZ)

CALLAWAYCOUNTY

C1 0.0 N/A CallawayPlant CountyRd459 Reform N/A 770 43% 330

C9 12.4 NW DollarGeneral 1990NorthBluffStreet Fulton (573)5923500 350 65% 228

C9 12.1 NW HarbisonWalkerRefractories 111WSaintEuniceRd Fulton (573)6426667 56 46% 26

C9 11.9 NW KingdomProjectsInc. 2611NorthBluffStreet Fulton (573)6427333 120 40% 48

C9 11.1 NW OvidBellPress 1201BluffSt Fulton (573)6422256 118 35% 41

C9 11.3 NW WalmartSupercenter 1701NorthBluffStreet Fulton (573)6426877 161 46% 74

CallawayCountySubtotals: 1,575  747

TOTAL: 1,575  747





CallawayPlant E3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure TableE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ

to ULNRC-05881 Distance Dire

Subarea (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality Phone Transients Vehicles

CALLAWAYCOUNTY

C1 1.3 S ReformConservationArea CountyRd459 Reform N/A 10 4

C2 3.1 W HamsPrairieAccess CountyRd449 Auxvasse (573)8846861 1 1

C2 3.1 WNW HarmonyHillsYouthCamp 8033StateRdO Fulton (573)6423864 150 75

C3 2.5 N WildwoodRVPark WildwoodEstatesDr Reform N/A 41 15

C4 6.8 ESETateIslandCA N/A Portland (573)8846861 2 2

C6 3.7 S KATYTrail Route94 Portland N/A 10 4

C7 7.9 SW HighHopesHuntingSportsClub 440FultonRd Mokane (573)2915191 20 12

C8 9.6 WNW CallawayRacewayInc 7419CountyRd405 Fulton (573)5927795 1,500 500

HiddenOaksRVParkand

C8 11.0 W 4855HiddenOaks Fulton (573)5928834 39 15

Campground,LLC

C8 9.2 WNW KingdomofCallawayCountyFair 7217StateRdC Fulton (573)2202752 500 183

C9 10.6 NW FultonCountryClub 701East10thSt Fulton (573)6423005 0 0

C10 10.4 N MooresMillAccess CountyRd139 Calwood (573)8846861 4 2

CallawayCountySubtotals: 2,277 813

MONTGOMERYCOUNTY

M2 9.5 ESE GrandBluffsCA BlufftonRd Fulton (573)8846861 5 5

MontgomeryCountySubtotals: 5 5

OSAGECOUNTY

O1 5.6 S ChamoisAccess Highway100 Chamois (573)8846861 30 30

OsageCountySubtotals: 30 30

TOTAL: 2,312 848

1 Facilityreportedhavingalllocalresidents,resultinginnotransientsortransientvehicles.











CallawayPlant E4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure



to ULNRC-05881



TableE5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ

Distance Dire

Subarea (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality Phone Transients Vehicles

CALLAWAYCOUNTY

C9 12.5 NW HolidayInnExpressFultonHotel 2205CardinalDr Fulton (573)6422600 111 55

C9 11.1 WNW LoganberryInn 310WestSeventhSt Fulton (573)6429229 4 2

C9 10.8 WNW TravelierMotel 600SouthBusiness54 Fulton (573)6423332 10 5

C9 11.8 WNW WestwoodsMotel 422GaylordDr Fulton (573)6425991 19 9

CallawayCountySubtotals: 144 71

TOTAL: 144 71





TableE6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ

Distance Dire Cap Subarea (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality Phone acity

CALLAWAYCOUNTY

FultonReceptionandDiagnostic

C9 9.9 NW Center 1393MissouriO Fulton (573)5924040 1,346

C9 9.9 NW CallawayCountyJail 1201MissouriO Fulton (573)5922400 109

CallawayCountySubtotals: 1,455

TOTAL: 1,455













CallawayPlant E5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ



CallawayPlant E6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ



CallawayPlant E7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ



CallawayPlant E8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ



CallawayPlant E9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureE5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ



CallawayPlant E10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureE6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ



CallawayPlant E11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



APPENDIXF

TelephoneSurvey



Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



F. TELEPHONESURVEY

F.1 Introduction

ThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheEPZoftheCallawayPlantrequiresthe

identificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithinthe

EPZ.  Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has

several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not

encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary

activities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,Census

data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and

consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the

evacuatingpopulace.

Theseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleof

the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning

familydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthe

surveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheformWhatwouldyoudoif?andother

questionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar(Howlongdoesittakeyou

to?)

 



CallawayPlant F1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan

AttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrument

was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey

instrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.

Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeof

approximately500completedsurveyformsyieldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe

95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alist

ofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF1.Along

witheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawas

determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The

proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as

showninTableF1.

Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.



TableF1.CallawayPlantEPZTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan

Populationwithin Required

ZipCode Households EPZ(2010) Sample

63363 17 8 1

65080 41 15 1

65041 62 20 1

63361 101 51 4

65061 134 57 4

65067 390 169 12

65077 510 225 16

65069 510 223 16

63388 552 239 17

65024 832 338 24

65059 1,155 443 31

65251 15,869 5,238 373

Total 20,173 7,026 500

AvgHHSize: 2.87









CallawayPlant F2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



F.3 SurveyResults

Theresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsofthearea

canbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobile

ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to

developthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedin

Section5.

Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshaveadontknow(DK)or

refused entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to

accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who

refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses

from a large sample, the practiceis to assume that the distribution of theseresponses is the

same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the DK/refused

responsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.

F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResults

HouseholdSize

Figure F1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household

determined from the telephone survey contains 2.40 people, which is the number used for

analysis in this report. The estimated household size (2.87 persons) used to determine the

survey sample (Table F1) was drawn from Census data. The estimation of 2.87 people per

household is an overestimation because the census includes the Callaway County Jail,

WestminsterCollege,WilliamWoodsUniversityandseveralotherfacilitiesthatarenothomes.

Whencensusblockswithhouseholdsizesofover15areignored(8blockstotal),theadjusted

averagehouseholdsizebecomes2.41,whichisconsistentwiththetelephonesurveyresults.





CallawayPlant F3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



CallawayHouseholdSize 60%

50%

%ofHouseholds 40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

HouseholdSize



FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ

AutomobileOwnership

The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 1.35. It should be

notedthatapproximately2.4percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.The

distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F2. Figure F3 and Figure F4

present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households

withoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2or

morepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.



CallawayVehicleAvailability 50%

40%

%ofHouseholds 30%

20%

10%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

NumberofVehicles



FigureF2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability



CallawayPlant F4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





DistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 15PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Vehicles



FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds





DistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 69+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 Vehicles



FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds



 



CallawayPlant F5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Ridesharing

Thetenhouseholdssurveyed(whodonotownavehicle)respondedthattheywouldsharea

ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when asked to

evacuate.FigureF5presentsthisresponse.



CallawayRidesharewith

Neighbor/Friend 100%

80%

60%

Percent 40%

20%

0%

Yes No



FigureF5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference



 



CallawayPlant F6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



Commuters

Figure F6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.

Thedatashowsanaverageof1.02commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and60percentof

householdshaveatleastonecommuter.



CallawayCommuters 50%

40%

%ofHouseholds 30%

20%

10%

0%

0 1 2 3 4+

NumberofCommuters



FigureF6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ

 



CallawayPlant F7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



CommuterTravelModes

FigureF7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityof

commutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.09

employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.



CallawayTravelModetoWork 100%

88.6%

80%

60%

Percent 40%

20%

8.9%

0.0% 1.2% 1.4%

0%

Rail Bus Walk/Bike DriveAlone Carpool(2+)

ModeofTravel



FigureF7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ



F.3.2 EvacuationResponse

Severalquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulationsresponsetoanemergency.Theseare

nowdiscussed:

Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?Theresponseis

showninFigureF8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.35vehicles.

Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?

Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,48percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofother

family members before evacuating and 52 percent indicated that they would not await the

returnofotherfamilymembers.

Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuate

thearea?AsshowninFigureF9,15percentofhouseholdsdonothaveafamilypet.Ofthe

householdswithpets,84percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpets.





CallawayPlant F8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



VehiclesUsedforEvacuation 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 NumberofVehicles



FigureF8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation



HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets 100%

80%

60%

Percent 40%

20%

0%

Yes No



FigureF9.PercentofHouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets



Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?This

question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelterin

place. The results indicate that 90 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place

woulddoso;theremaining10percentwouldchoosetoevacuatethearea.Notethebaseline

ETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asper

Section2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002.Asensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectof



CallawayPlant F9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



changesinthepercentageofpeoplewhoelecttoevacuate,ifadvisedtoshelter(seeAppendix

M).

Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly

evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you? This

question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged

evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a

specified period of time. Results indicate that 77 percent of households would follow

instructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof23percent

would choose to begin evacuating immediately. Thus, the NRC recommendation of 20% non complianceduringastagedevacuationisvalid.

F.3.3 TimeDistributionResults

Thesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of

theirdaytodaylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftherespondersexperience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis

describedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?FigureF10

presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout60minutes.

Eightytwopercentcanleavewithin20minutes.



TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 100%

80%

%ofCommuters 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 15 30 45 60 PreparationTime(min)



FigureF10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School







CallawayPlant F10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





How long would it take the commuter to travel home?  Figure F11 presents the work to

hometraveltimefortheEPZ.About84percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout30

minutesofleavingwork;theactivityiscompletedbyabout90minutes.



WorktoHomeTravel 100%

80%

%ofCommuters 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 TravelTime(min)



FigureF11.WorktoHomeTravelTime 



CallawayPlant F11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?

Figure F12 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many

ways this activity mimics a familys preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from

home.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilar

activities. 

ThedistributionshowninFigureF12hasalongtail.About86percentofhouseholdscanbe

readytoleavehomewithin60minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditional

twohours.



TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 PreparationTime(min)



FigureF12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation



 



CallawayPlant F12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?  During

adverse,snowyweatherconditions,anadditionalactivitymustbeperformedbeforeresidents

can depart on the evacuation trip.  Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and

highwayshavebeenplowedandarepassable(albeitatlowerspeedsandcapacities),itmaybe

necessarytoclearaprivatedrivewaypriortoleavingthehomesothatthevehiclecanaccess

thestreet.FigureF13presentsthetimedistributionforremoving6to8inchesofsnowfroma

driveway.Thetimedistributionforclearingthedrivewayhasalongtail;about83percentof

drivewaysarepassablewithin60minutes.Thelastdrivewayisclearedthreehoursafterthe

start of this activity. Note that those respondents (47%) who answered that they would not

take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this

activity.Essentiallytheywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadway

andbegintheirevacuationtrip.



TimetoRemoveSnowfromDriveway 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Time(min)



FigureF13.TimetoClearDrivewayof6"8"ofSnow



F.4 Conclusions

The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population,

which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and mobilization time

whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.



CallawayPlant F13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





ATTACHMENTA





TelephoneSurveyInstrument



CallawayPlant F14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



TelephoneSurveyInstrument

Hello,mynameis___________andImworkingforFirstMarket COL.1 Unused Researchonasurveyforlocalcountyemergencymanagement COL.2 Unused agenciestoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations. COL.3 Unused Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbe COL.4 Unused sharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansin

yourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazards COL.5 Unused mayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributeto Sex COL.8 localemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyournameandthe  1Male surveyshalltakenomorethan10minutestocomplete.  2Female



INTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.

(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)



DONOTASK:

1A. Recordareacode.ToBeDetermined COL.911

1B. Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDetermined COL.1214

2. Whatisyourhomezipcode? COL.1519

3A. Intotal,howmanyrunningcars,orotherrunning COL.20 SKIPTO

vehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold? 1ONE Q.4

(DONOTREADANSWERS) 2TWO Q.4

3THREE Q.4

4FOUR Q.4

5FIVE Q.4

6SIX Q.4

7SEVEN Q.4

  8EIGHT Q.4

9NINEORMORE Q.4

0ZERO(NONE) Q.3B

XDONTKNOW/REFUSED Q.3B

3B. Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutofthe COL.21 

areawithaneighbororfriend? 1YES 

2NO 

XDONTKNOW/REFUSED 

4. Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold? COL.22 COL.23

(DONOTREADANSWERS) 1ONE 0TEN

2TWO 1ELEVEN

3THREE 2TWELVE

4FOUR 3THIRTEEN

5FIVE 4FOURTEEN

6SIX 5FIFTEEN



CallawayPlant F15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



7SEVEN 6SIXTEEN

8EIGHT 7SEVENTEEN

9NINE 8EIGHTEEN

9NINETEENORMORE

XDONTKNOW/REFUSED

5. Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoa COL.24 SKIPTO

job,ortocollegeonadailybasis? 0ZERO Q.9

1ONE Q.6

2TWO Q.6

3THREE Q.6

4FOURORMORE Q.6

5DONTKNOW/REFUSED Q.9



INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.



6. Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTION

FOREACHCOMMUTER)

  Commuter#1 Commuter#2 Commuter#3 Commuter#4 COL.25 COL.26 COL.27 COL.28

 Rail 1 1 1 1

 Bus 2 2 2 2

 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3

 DriveAlone 4 4 4 4

 Carpool2ormorepeople 5 5 5 5

 Dontknow/Refused 6 6 6 6 7. Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEAT

QUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)



COMMUTER#1 COMMUTER#2

COL.29 COL.30 COL.31 COL.32

1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR OVER1HOUR,BUT OVER1HOUR,BUT

4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR15 4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR

MINUTES 15MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR16 BETWEEN1HOUR16

5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1HOUR 5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1

30MINUTES HOUR30MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR31 BETWEEN1HOUR31

6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1HOUR 6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1

45MINUTES HOUR45MINUTES



CallawayPlant F16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



BETWEEN1HOUR46 BETWEEN1HOUR46

7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2 7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2

HOURS HOURS

OVER2HOURS OVER2HOURS

8 3640MINUTES 8 8 3640MINUTES 8

(SPECIFY______) (SPECIFY______)

9 4145MINUTES 9  9 4145MINUTES 9 

  0  0 

DONTKNOW DONTKNOW

  X   X

/REFUSED /REFUSED



 



CallawayPlant F17 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



COMMUTER#3 COMMUTER#4

COL.33 COL.34 COL.35 COL.36

1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR OVER1HOUR,BUT OVER1HOUR,BUT

4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR15 4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR

MINUTES 15MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR16 BETWEEN1HOUR16

5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1HOUR 5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1

30MINUTES HOUR30MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR31 BETWEEN1HOUR31

6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1HOUR 6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1

45MINUTES HOUR45MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR46 BETWEEN1HOUR46

7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2 7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2

HOURS HOURS

OVER2HOURS OVER2HOURS

8 3640MINUTES 8 8 3640MINUTES 8

(SPECIFY______) (SPECIFY______)

9 4145MINUTES 9  9 4145MINUTES 9 

  0  0 

DONTKNOW DONTKNOW

  X   X

/REFUSED /REFUSED

8. ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollege

priortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)

COMMUTER#1 COMMUTER#2

COL.37 COL.38 COL.39 COL.40

1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR OVER1HOUR,BUT OVER1HOUR,BUT

4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR15 4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR

MINUTES 15MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR16 BETWEEN1HOUR16

5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1HOUR 5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1

30MINUTES HOUR30MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR31 BETWEEN1HOUR31

6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1HOUR 6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1

45MINUTES HOUR45MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR46 BETWEEN1HOUR46

7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2 7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2

HOURS HOURS

OVER2HOURS OVER2HOURS

8 3640MINUTES 8 8 3640MINUTES 8

(SPECIFY______) (SPECIFY______)

9 4145MINUTES 9  9 4145MINUTES 9 

  0  0 



CallawayPlant F18 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



  X DONTKNOW/REFUSED X DONTKNOW/REFUSED



COMMUTER#3 COMMUTER#4

COL.41 COL.42 COL.43 COL.44

1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 4650MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 2 610MINUTES 2 5155MINUTES 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR 3 1115MINUTES 3 56-1HOUR OVER1HOUR,BUT

OVER1HOUR,BUTLESS

4 1620MINUTES 4 LESSTHAN1HOUR15 4 1620MINUTES 4

THAN1HOUR15MINUTES

MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR16 BETWEEN1HOUR16

5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1HOUR 5 2125MINUTES 5 MINUTESAND1HOUR30

30MINUTES MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR31 BETWEEN1HOUR31

6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1HOUR 6 2630MINUTES 6 MINUTESAND1HOUR45

45MINUTES MINUTES

BETWEEN1HOUR46

BETWEEN1HOUR46

7 3135MINUTES 7 MINUTESAND2 7 3135MINUTES 7

MINUTESAND2HOURS

HOURS

OVER2HOURS OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY

8 3640MINUTES 8 8 3640MINUTES 8

(SPECIFY______) ______)

9 4145MINUTES 9  9 4145MINUTES 9 

  0  0 

  X DONTKNOW/REFUSED X DONTKNOW/REFUSED



9. Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopack

clothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthe

area?(DONOTREADANSWERS)

COL.45 COL.46 1 LESSTHAN15MINUTES 1 3HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES

2 1530MINUTES 2 3HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 3 3145MINUTES 3 3HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 4 46MINUTES-1HOUR 4 3HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS

5 1HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES 5 4HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES

6 1HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES 6 4HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES 7 1HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES 7 4HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 8 1HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS 8 4HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS

9 2HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES 9 5HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES

0 2HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES 0 5HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURS

X 2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES X OVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)

Y 2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURS

  COL.47

  1 DONTKNOW/REFUSED





CallawayPlant F19 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



10 Ifthereis68ofsnowonyourdrivewayorcurb,wouldyouneedtoshovelouttoevacuate?Ifyes,how

. muchtime,onaverage,wouldittakeyoutoclearthe68ofsnowtomovethecarfromthedrivewayor

curbtobegintheevacuationtrip?Assumetheroadsarepassable.(DONOTREADRESPONSES)

COL.48 COL.49 1 LESSTHAN15MINUTES 1 OVER3HOURS(SPECIFY_______)

2 1530MINUTES 2 DONTKNOW/REFUSED 3 3145MINUTES

4 46MINUTES-1HOUR

5 1HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES

6 1HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES 7 1HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES 8 1HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS

9 2HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES

0 2HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES X 2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES Y 2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURS

Z NO,WILLNOTSHOVELOUT



11. Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READ COL.50 ANSWERS): 1 A

A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhousehold

commuterstoevacuatetogether. 2 B

B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeet X DONTKNOW/REFUSED

otherhouseholdmemberslater.



12. Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)

 COL.51

 1 ONE

 2 TWO

 3 THREE

 4 FOUR

 5 FIVE

 6 SIX

 7 SEVEN

 8 EIGHT

 9 NINEORMORE

 0 ZERO(NONE)

 X DONTKNOW/REFUSED



 



CallawayPlant F20 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



13A. Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinan COL.52 emergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS) 1A A.SHELTER;or 2B B.EVACUATE XDONTKNOW/REFUSED

13B. Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowin COL.53 anemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeoplein 1A otherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READ

2B ANSWERS)

XDONTKNOW/REFUSED

A.SHELTER;or

B.EVACUATE

14. Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?

(READANSWERS)

  COL.54

  1 DONTHAVEAPET

  2 YES

  3 NO

  X DONTKNOW/REFUSED





Thankyouverymuch._______________________________

  (TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)





IFREQUESTED:

Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.



County EMAPhone Callaway (573)5922480

Gasconade (573)4863621

Montgomery (573)5642283

Osage (573)8973561(Ext.220)







CallawayPlant F21 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXG

TrafficManagementPlan

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN

NUREG/CR7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies

shouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.Thetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfor

theEPZwereprovidedbyeachcounty.



G.1 TrafficControlPoints

As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are

modeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapretimedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,and

the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an

actuatedsignalintheDYNEVIIsystem.TableK2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumber

forthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.Iftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeing

aTCP,thecontroltypeisindicatedasTCPActuatedinTableK2.

As discussed in Section 7.3, the animation of evacuation traffic conditions indicates several

criticalintersectionswhichcouldbebottlenecksduringevacuation.Thesecriticalintersections

were crosschecked with the EPZ county traffic management plans. All of the intersections,

excepttwo-US54andthetwoaccessrampstoI70inCallawayCounty-wereidentifiedas

TCPs in the county plans. As these are the last congested intersections to clear, it is

recommendedthatthecountyconsidertheseintersectionsasadditionalTCPs.

Figure G1 maps the TCPs identified in the county emergency plans. Theses TCPs would be

mannedduringevacuationbytrafficguideswhowoulddirectevacueesintheproperdirection

andfacilitatetheflowoftrafficthroughtheintersections.

Vehicles traveling on US54 (County Rd 201) northbound must cross two high volume

intersectionswiththeI70rampsbeforeexitingthestudyareatothenorth.Itisrecommended

that the offramps at Exit 148 be barricaded to prohibit vehicles from exiting I70, mitigating

congestiononUS54.Twopoliceofficersateachintersectionwoulddirectallvehiclestraveling

northboundonUS54toeithercontinuenorthonUS54oraccessI70.Theofficersstationed

atthenorthernintersectionwoulddirectallUS54southboundtrafficontoI70westboundto

reduce conflicts with northbound traveling vehicles. Figure G2 through Figure G5 provide

schematicsfortheseproposedTCPs.

G.2 AccessControlPoints

It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours of the advisory to evacuate to

discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ.  As

discussedinSection3.7,externaltrafficwasonlyconsideredontworouteswhichtraversethe

EPZ-Interstate70andUS54inthisanalysis.Thegenerationoftheseexternaltripsceasedat

2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.

According to the counties emergency plans, the access control points in Callaway and



CallawayPlant G1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 Montgomeryarelistedintheirrespectiveemergencyoperationscenters,andwillbemanned

aftertheadvisorytoevacuatehasbeengiven.ItisrecommendedthatACPsoneachborderof

theEPZalongthetwo aforementionedroutesbethetop priorityinassigningmanpowerand

equipmentastheyarethemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ,whichwilltypicallycarrythehighest

volumeofthroughtraffic.



CallawayPlant G2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureG1.TrafficControlPointsfortheCallawayPlant



CallawayPlant G3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Key to ULNRC-05881 MOVEMENT FACILITATED MUNICIPALITY: Kingdom City TCP MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED LOCATION: I-70 Westbound Exit 48 TRAFFIC GUIDE 2 ft ID: 1 STOP SIGN SUBAREA: Shadow Region 3 ft TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

Exit 48 off-ramp TRAFFIC SIGNAL TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):

8 ft I-70 ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

1. Discourage westbound traffic on I-70 onto Exit 48 MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE 4 Traffic Barricades LOCATION PRIORITY 1

N

• • Traffic Guide should position himself safely



FigureG2.SchematicoftheTCPatI70WestboundExit48



CallawayPlant G4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Key to ULNRC-05881 MOVEMENT FACILITATED MUNICIPALITY: Kingdom City TCP MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED LOCATION: I-70 Westbound Exit 48 TRAFFIC GUIDE 2 ft ID: 2 STOP SIGN SUBAREA: Shadow Region 3 ft TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNAL I-70 Eastbound TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):

8 ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

1. Discourage eastbound traffic on I-70 onto Exit 48 MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE 4 Traffic Barricades Exit 48 off-ramp LOCATION PRIORITY 1

N

• • Traffic Guide should position himself safely



FigureG3.SchematicoftheTCPatI70EastboundExit48



CallawayPlant G5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Key to ULNRC-05881 MOVEMENT FACILITATED MUNICIPALITY: Kingdom City TCP MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED LOCATION: I-70 Westbound ramps and US-54 TRAFFIC GUIDE 2 ft ID: 3 STOP SIGN SUBAREA: Shadow Region 3 ft TRAFFIC BARRICADE US-54 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)

Southbound 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNAL TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):

8 ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

1. Discourage traffic on US-54 Southbound

2. Give priority to traffic flowing on US-54 NB MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE 2 Traffic Guides 6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1

I-70 Westbound Exit 48 off-ramp N

• • Traffic Guide should position himself safely



FigureG4.SchematicoftheTCPatI70WestboundRampsandUS54





CallawayPlant G6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Key to ULNRC-05881 MOVEMENT FACILITATED MUNICIPALITY: Kingdom City TCP MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED LOCATION: I-70 Eastbound ramps and US-54 TRAFFIC GUIDE 2 ft ID: 3 STOP SIGN SUBAREA: Shadow Region 3 ft TRAFFIC BARRICADE US-54 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)

Southbound 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNAL I-70 Eastbound Exit 48 off-ramp TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):

8 ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

1. Discourage traffic on US-54 Southbound

2. Give priority to traffic flowing on US-54 NB MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE 2 Traffic Guides 6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1

N

• • Traffic Guide should position himself safely



FigureG5.SchematicoftheTCPatI70EastboundRampsandUS54



CallawayPlant G7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXH

EvacuationRegions

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 H EVACUATIONREGIONS

ThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH1)and

maps of all Evacuation Regions. The percentages presented in Table H1 are based on the

methodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure21.

NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelter

advisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002.AsdiscussedinAppendixF,thedataobtained

inresponsetothetelephonesurveyquestiononshelteringisusedintheshadowevacuation

sensitivitystudydocumentedinAppendixM.





CallawayPlant H1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure TableH1.PercentofSubareaPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion

to ULNRC-05881 BasicRegions

Subarea

Region Description C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R01 2MileRadius 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R02 5MileRadius 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R03 FullEPZ 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles

WindDirection Subarea

Region From: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R04 N,NNE,NE 100% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R05 ENE,E,ESE, 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R06 SE,SSE,S 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R07 SSW,SW,WSW 100% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R08 W 100% 20% 20% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R09 WNW,NW,NNW 100% 20% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary

WindDirection Subarea

Region From: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R10 N 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100%

R11 NNE,NE 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100%

R12 ENE 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R13 E,ESE 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R14 SE,SSE 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R15 S 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 100% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R16 SSW,SW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% 20% 100% 20% 20%

R17 WSW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 20% 100% 100% 20%

R18 W 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20%

R19 WNW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% 100% 100%

R20 NW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 20% 100% 100%

R21 NNW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 100% 20% 20% 100%

 



CallawayPlant H2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles

to ULNRC-05881 WindDirection Subarea

Region From: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 G1 M1 M2 O1

R22 N,NNE,NE 100% 20% 20% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R23 ENE,E,ESE 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R24 SE,SSE,S 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R25 SSW,SW,WSW 100% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R26 W 100% 20% 20% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R27 WNW,NW,NNW 100% 20% 20% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

R28 None 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

Key

Subarea(s)Evacuate Subarea(s)ShelterinPlace ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate







CallawayPlant H3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH1RegionR01



CallawayPlant H4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH2RegionR02



CallawayPlant H5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH3RegionR03



CallawayPlant H6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH4RegionR04



CallawayPlant H7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH5RegionR05



CallawayPlant H8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH6RegionR06



CallawayPlant H9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH7RegionR07



CallawayPlant H10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH8RegionR08



CallawayPlant H11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH9RegionR09



CallawayPlant H12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH10RegionR10



CallawayPlant H13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH11RegionR11



CallawayPlant H14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH12RegionR12



CallawayPlant H15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH13RegionR13



CallawayPlant H16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH14RegionR14



CallawayPlant H17 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH15RegionR15



CallawayPlant H18 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH16RegionR16



CallawayPlant H19 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH17RegionR17



CallawayPlant H20 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH18RegionR18



CallawayPlant H21 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH19RegionR19



CallawayPlant H22 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH20RegionR20



CallawayPlant H23 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH21RegionR21



CallawayPlant H24 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH22RegionR22



CallawayPlant H25 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH23RegionR23



CallawayPlant H26 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH24RegionR24



CallawayPlant H27 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH25RegionR25



CallawayPlant H28 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH26RegionR26



CallawayPlant H29 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH27RegionR27



CallawayPlant H30 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureH28RegionR28



CallawayPlant H31 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



APPENDIXJ

RepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem



Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM

ThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ1provides

the volumeand queues for the ten highest volume signalized intersections in thestudy area.

RefertoTableK2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationof

eachintersection.

Table J2 provides source (vehicle loading) and destination information for several roadway

segments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK1andthefiguresinAppendixKfora

mapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.

TableJ3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberof

vehicles) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) for each scenario. As expected,

Scenarios8and11,whicharesnowscenarios,exhibittheslowestaveragespeedandlongest

averagetraveltimes.



TableJ4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-

Interstate70 and US54 - for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1

conditions.

TableJ5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotal

vehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentire

EPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK1andthefiguresinAppendixK

foramapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.



FigureJ1throughFigureJ14plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe14

Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetravel

time.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEareindicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduring

evacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshort

traveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesare

fartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.Asseenin

FigureJ1throughFigureJ14,thecurvesareclosetogetherasaresultoflimitedtraffic

congestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSection7.3. 



CallawayPlant J1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



TableJ1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections

Approach Total Max.Turn

Intersection (Up Volume Queue

Node Location Control Node) (Veh) (Veh)

30 1,436 0

US54&I70EBon 32 5,496 17

31 Actuated

ramp 5 0 0

TOTAL 6,932 

31 1,438 0

33 5,489 51

32 US54&GoldRd Actuated 803 0 0

804 4 0

TOTAL 6,931 

31 4,449 30

US54&I70EBoff 28 1,510 0

30 Actuated

ramp 29 0 0

TOTAL 5,959 

809 2,062 90

US54BUS&Industrial

399 Actuated 806 491 11

Dr

TOTAL 2,553 

386 1,815 6

808 0 0

US54BUS&Douglas

809 Actuated 807 95 0

Blvd

399 9 0

TOTAL 1,919 

385 424 0

776 1,220 0

386 US54BUS&MissouriZ Actuated 810 136 0

809 32 0

TOTAL 1,812 

395 1,043 0

WestminsterAve&W

985 634 0

396 4thSt&MartinLuther Actuated

818 106 0

KingJrBlvd

TOTAL 1,783 

865 989 0

386 55 0

776 US54BUS&E10thSt Actuated

779 74 0

TOTAL 1,118 

865 30 0

388 14 0

US54BUS&BuffSt&

387 Actuated 811 626 0

E8thSt

815 377 0

TOTAL 1,047 

813 361 0

966 408 0

394 US54BUS&4thSt Actuated

816 9 0

TOTAL 778 





CallawayPlant J2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



TableJ2.SampleSimulationModelInput

Vehicles

Entering

Link Network Directional Destination Destination

Number onthisLink Preference Nodes Capacity

74 0 NW 8073 4500

8300 1698

328

9 E 8725 1698

8005 4500

428 8028 4530

3 W 8073 4500

8005 4500

495 8775 1698

396 W 8073 4500

595 14 SW 8488 1698

689 14 S 8589 1698

8028 4530

817 8005 4500

326 NW 8775 1698

8775 1698

963 8028 4530

20 NW 8005 4500

851 3 W 8440 1698





CallawayPlant J3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Enclosure TableJ3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)

to ULNRC-05881 Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

NetworkWideAverage 1 1.12 1.08 1.22 1.08 0.99 1.17 1.24 1.01 1.14 1.58 1.08 1.19 1.12

TravelTime(Min/VehMi)

NetworkWideAverage 59.86 53.36 55.79 49.31 55.48 60.7 51.26 48.56 59.48 52.79 37.86 55.68 50.56 53.55

Speed(mph)

TotalVehicles 23897 24059 23894 24067 16508 23832 23991 24118 22973 23136 23554 16464 27467 23897

ExitingNetwork





TableJ4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)

ElapsedTime(hours) 1 2 3 4

 Travel

 Length Speed Time Travel Travel Travel

Route (miles) (mph) (min) Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time I70EB 13.25 71.7 11.1 73.5 10.8 70.3 11.3 75 10.6 I70WB 13.25 75 10.6 75 10.6 72 11 75 10.6 US54WB 7.99 73.3 6.5 73.3 6.5 68 7.1 74.1 6.5 US54EB 7.99 73.5 6.5 73.8 6.5 74.3 6.5 74.4 6.4



CallawayPlant J4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



TableJ5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1

ElapsedTime(hours) 1 2 3 4 5

EPZ

ExitLink VehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeInterval

CumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicated

TimeInterval 454 1038 1148 1161 1161

1

5.01% 4.97% 4.83% 4.84% 4.84%

2486 5285 6122 6161 6163

4

27.42% 25.33% 25.75% 25.70% 25.70%

889 1897 2264 2297 2298

58

9.81% 9.09% 9.52% 9.58% 9.58%

986 2252 2584 2603 2604

133

10.88% 10.79% 10.87% 10.86% 10.86%

71 192 219 222 222

192

0.78% 0.92% 0.92% 0.93% 0.93%

652 1600 1797 1830 1832

279

7.19% 7.67% 7.56% 7.63% 7.64%

208 495 559 563 563

358

2.29% 2.37% 2.35% 2.35% 2.35%

550 1298 1472 1500 1500

522

6.07% 6.22% 6.19% 6.26% 6.25%

7 34 40 40 40

575

0.08% 0.16% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%

25 88 105 106 106

675

0.28% 0.42% 0.44% 0.44% 0.44%

51 129 146 147 147

677

0.56% 0.62% 0.61% 0.61% 0.61%

79 227 263 265 265

678

0.87% 1.09% 1.11% 1.11% 1.10%

20 65 75 76 76

709

0.22% 0.31% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32%

24 91 109 111 111

795

0.26% 0.44% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46%

1844 4585 5144 5146 5146

858

20.34% 21.97% 21.64% 21.46% 21.46%

592 1238 1328 1341 1342

964

6.53% 5.93% 5.59% 5.59% 5.60%

119 310 351 356 356

968

1.31% 1.49% 1.48% 1.48% 1.48%

1 17 20 21 21

973

0.01% 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% 0.09%

8 25 29 29 29

977

0.09% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.12%



CallawayPlant J5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Summer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)





ETEandTripGeneration

Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)



CallawayPlant J6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Summer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)





ETEandTripGeneration

Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)



CallawayPlant J7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)







ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)



CallawayPlant J8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)





ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow (Scenario8)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)



CallawayPlant J9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario9)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)





ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario10)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)



CallawayPlant J10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow (Scenario11)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)





ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario12)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)





CallawayPlant J11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



ETEandTripGeneration

Winter,Midweek,Midday,Good,Construction (Scenario13)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)





ETEandTripGeneration

Summer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)

TripGeneration ETE 100%

PercentofTotalVehicles 80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTime(min)



FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)



CallawayPlant J12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXK

EvacuationRoadwayNetwork

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK

AsdiscussedinSection1.3,alinknodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadway

network within the study area.  Figure K1 provides an overview of the linknode analysis

network. The figure has been divided up into 41 more detailed figures (Figure K2 through

FigureK42)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.

The analysis network was calibrated using the observations made during the field survey

conductedinJuly,2011.TableK1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledin

the ETE analysis. Each link is identified by its road name and the upstream and downstream

node numbers. The geographic location of each link can be observed by referencing the grid

map number provided in Table K1. The roadway type identified in Table K1 is based on the

followingcriteria:

x Freeway:  limited access highway, 2 or more lanes in each direction, high free flow

speeds

x Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway

x Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection

x Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection

x Collector:singlelaneineachdirection

x Localroadways:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeeds

Theterm,No.ofLanesinTableK1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthe

length of the link.  Many links have additional lanes on the immediate approach to an

intersection(turnpockets);thesehavebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamforthe

DYNEVIISystem.

AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduring

the road survey. Rather, estimatesof these measures were based on visual observations and

recordedimages.

TableK2identifieseachnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stop

sign, yield sign, pretimed signal, actuated signal, traffic control point) at that node.

UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK2.



CallawayPlant K1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK1CallawayLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork



CallawayPlant K2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK2LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1



CallawayPlant K3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK3LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2



CallawayPlant K4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK4LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3



CallawayPlant K5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK5LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4



CallawayPlant K6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK6LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5



CallawayPlant K7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK7LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6



CallawayPlant K8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK8LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7



CallawayPlant K9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK9LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8



CallawayPlant K10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK10LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9



CallawayPlant K11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK11LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10



CallawayPlant K12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK12LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11



CallawayPlant K13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK13LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12



CallawayPlant K14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK14LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13



CallawayPlant K15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK15LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14



CallawayPlant K16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK16LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15



CallawayPlant K17 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK17LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16



CallawayPlant K18 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK18LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17



CallawayPlant K19 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK19LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18



CallawayPlant K20 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK20LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19



CallawayPlant K21 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK21LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20



CallawayPlant K22 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK22LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21



CallawayPlant K23 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK23LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22



CallawayPlant K24 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK24LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23



CallawayPlant K25 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK25LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24



CallawayPlant K26 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK26LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25



CallawayPlant K27 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK27LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26



CallawayPlant K28 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK28LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27



CallawayPlant K29 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK29LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28



CallawayPlant K30 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK30LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29



CallawayPlant K31 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK31LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30



CallawayPlant K32 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK32LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31



CallawayPlant K33 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK33LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32



CallawayPlant K34 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK34LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33



CallawayPlant K35 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK35LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34



CallawayPlant K36 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK36LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35



CallawayPlant K37 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK37LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36



CallawayPlant K38 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK38LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37



CallawayPlant K39 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK39LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38



CallawayPlant K40 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK40LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39



CallawayPlant K41 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK41LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40



CallawayPlant K42 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



FigureK42LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41



CallawayPlant K43 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure TableK1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics

to ULNRC-05881 Free

Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 1 1 682 SR94 COLLECTOR 1725 1 10 0 1700 60 32 2 5 29 I70 FREEWAY 1809 2 12 10 2250 75 3 FREEWAY

3 5 31 I70OFFRAMPTOUS54 1056 1 12 4 1750 45 3

RAMP

4 5 975 I70 FREEWAY 711 2 12 10 2250 75 3 5 6 7 I70 FREEWAY 6321 2 12 10 2250 75 3 6 6 29 I70 FREEWAY 5461 2 12 10 2250 75 3 7 7 6 I70 FREEWAY 6321 2 12 10 2250 75 3 8 7 8 I70 FREEWAY 4751 2 12 10 2250 75 4 9 8 7 I70 FREEWAY 4751 2 12 10 2250 75 4 10 8 27 I70 FREEWAY 6820 2 12 10 2250 75 4 11 9 10 I70 FREEWAY 6121 2 12 10 2250 75 4 12 9 27 I70 FREEWAY 2782 2 12 10 2250 75 4 13 10 9 I70 FREEWAY 6121 2 12 10 2250 75 4 14 10 14 I70 FREEWAY 5211 2 12 10 2250 75 4 15 11 12 I70 FREEWAY 11919 2 12 10 2250 75 5 16 11 14 I70 FREEWAY 2246 2 12 10 2250 75 4 I70OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

17 11 79 1129 1 12 4 1700 45 4

MISSOURIA RAMP



CallawayPlant K44 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 18 12 11 I70 FREEWAY 11919 2 12 10 2250 75 5 19 12 13 I70 FREEWAY 5614 2 12 10 2250 75 5 20 13 12 I70 FREEWAY 5614 2 12 10 2250 75 5 21 13 15 I70 FREEWAY 5580 2 12 10 2250 75 5 22 14 10 I70 FREEWAY 5212 2 12 10 2250 75 4 23 14 11 I70 FREEWAY 2246 2 12 10 2250 75 4 I70OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

24 14 80 1253 1 12 4 1700 45 4

MISSOURIA RAMP

25 15 13 I70 FREEWAY 5580 2 12 10 2250 75 5 26 15 16 I70 FREEWAY 6159 2 12 10 2250 75 5 27 16 15 I70 FREEWAY 6159 2 12 10 2250 75 5 28 16 17 I70 FREEWAY 1664 2 12 10 2250 75 6 I70OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

29 16 83 917 1 12 4 1700 45 6

MISSOURID RAMP

30 17 16 I70 FREEWAY 1664 2 12 10 2250 75 6 31 17 18 I70 FREEWAY 9662 2 12 10 2250 75 6 I70OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

32 17 84 955 1 12 4 1700 45 6

MISSOURID RAMP

33 18 17 I70 FREEWAY 9662 2 12 10 2250 75 6 34 18 19 I70 FREEWAY 2575 2 12 10 2250 75 6 35 19 18 I70 FREEWAY 2569 2 12 10 2250 75 6



CallawayPlant K45 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 36 19 20 I70 FREEWAY 9850 2 12 10 2250 75 6 37 20 19 I70 FREEWAY 9850 2 12 10 2250 75 6 38 20 21 I70 FREEWAY 1754 2 12 10 2250 75 15 39 21 20 I70 FREEWAY 1752 2 12 10 2250 75 15 40 21 22 I70 FREEWAY 12966 2 12 10 2250 75 7 41 22 21 I70 FREEWAY 12966 2 12 10 2250 75 7 42 22 23 I70 FREEWAY 1756 2 12 10 2250 75 7 43 23 22 I70 FREEWAY 1756 2 12 10 2250 75 7 44 23 24 I70 FREEWAY 2906 2 12 10 2250 75 7 45 24 23 I70 FREEWAY 2906 2 12 10 2250 75 7 46 24 25 I70 FREEWAY 1426 2 12 10 2250 75 7 47 25 24 I70 FREEWAY 1426 2 12 10 2250 75 7 48 25 26 I70 FREEWAY 2798 2 12 10 2250 75 7 49 26 25 I70 FREEWAY 2798 2 12 10 2250 75 7 50 26 800 I70 FREEWAY 2433 2 12 10 2250 75 7 51 27 8 I70 FREEWAY 6820 2 12 10 2250 75 4 52 27 9 I70 FREEWAY 2788 2 12 10 2250 75 4 53 28 30 US54 FREEWAY 1443 2 12 10 1750 50 3 54 29 5 I70 FREEWAY 1809 2 12 10 2250 75 3 55 29 6 I70 FREEWAY 5461 2 12 10 2250 75 3



CallawayPlant K46 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number FREEWAY

56 29 30 I70OFFRAMPTOUS54 850 1 12 4 1750 45 3

RAMP

I70ONRAMPFROMUS FREEWAY

57 30 5 1082 1 12 4 1700 45 3

54 RAMP

58 30 28 US54 FREEWAY 1443 2 12 10 1900 50 3 59 30 31 US54 FREEWAY 694 2 12 10 1750 50 3 I70ONRAMPFROMUS FREEWAY

60 31 29 890 1 12 4 1700 45 3

54 RAMP

61 31 30 US54 FREEWAY 694 2 12 10 1750 50 3 62 31 32 US54 FREEWAY 837 2 12 10 1750 50 3 63 32 31 US54 FREEWAY 837 2 12 10 1750 50 3 64 32 33 US54 FREEWAY 3666 2 12 10 1900 70 3 65 33 32 US54 FREEWAY 3666 2 12 10 1750 70 3 66 33 38 US54 FREEWAY 5677 2 12 10 1900 75 3 67 38 33 US54 FREEWAY 5677 2 12 10 1900 75 3 68 38 39 US54 FREEWAY 3799 2 12 10 1900 75 3 69 39 38 US54 FREEWAY 3799 2 12 10 1900 75 3 70 39 45 US54 FREEWAY 3501 2 12 10 1900 75 3 71 40 45 US54 FREEWAY 700 2 12 10 1900 75 9 72 40 47 US54 FREEWAY 1761 2 12 10 2250 65 9 73 45 39 US54 FREEWAY 3501 2 12 10 1900 75 3



CallawayPlant K47 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 74 45 40 US54 FREEWAY 700 2 12 10 1900 75 9 75 47 40 US54 FREEWAY 1766 2 12 10 2250 65 9 76 47 49 US54 FREEWAY 6349 2 12 10 2250 75 9 FREEWAY

77 48 40 US54BUS 2131 1 12 8 1700 50 9

RAMP

78 49 47 US54 FREEWAY 6349 2 12 10 2250 75 9 79 49 50 US54 FREEWAY 2162 2 12 10 2250 75 9 US54OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

80 49 770 1113 1 12 4 1700 45 9

MISSOURIHH RAMP

81 50 49 US54 FREEWAY 2162 2 12 10 2250 75 9 82 50 51 US54 FREEWAY 1623 2 12 10 2250 75 9 US54OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

83 50 769 1182 1 12 4 1700 45 9

MISSOURIHH RAMP

84 51 50 US54 FREEWAY 1606 2 12 10 2250 75 9 85 51 52 US54 FREEWAY 3882 2 12 10 2250 75 9 86 52 51 US54 FREEWAY 3882 2 12 10 2250 75 9 87 52 53 US54 FREEWAY 3661 2 12 10 2250 75 11 88 53 52 US54 FREEWAY 3661 2 12 10 2250 75 11 89 53 54 US54 FREEWAY 1424 2 12 10 2250 65 11 US54OFFRAMPTOMLK FREEWAY

90 53 56 712 1 12 4 1700 45 11

JRBLVD RAMP



CallawayPlant K48 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 91 54 53 US54 FREEWAY 1424 2 12 10 2250 75 11 92 54 55 US54 FREEWAY 3825 2 12 10 2250 75 11 US54OFFRAMPTOMLK FREEWAY

93 54 57 650 1 12 4 1700 45 11

JRBLVD RAMP

94 55 54 US54 FREEWAY 3825 2 12 10 2250 75 11 95 55 60 US54 FREEWAY 4561 2 12 10 2250 75 11 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

96 56 54 849 1 12 4 1700 45 11

MLKJRBLVD RAMP

97 56 57 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 653 1 12 10 1700 55 11 98 56 59 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 1120 1 10 8 1700 60 11 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

99 57 53 900 1 12 4 1700 45 11

MLKJRBLVD RAMP

100 57 56 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 653 1 12 10 1700 55 11 101 58 57 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 1509 1 12 10 1700 55 11 102 59 56 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 1120 1 10 8 1700 60 11 103 59 213 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 3014 1 10 8 1700 60 11 104 59 432 CORD304 COLLECTOR 4646 1 10 0 1700 45 11 105 60 55 US54 FREEWAY 4561 2 12 10 2250 75 11 106 60 61 US54 FREEWAY 2253 2 12 10 2250 75 19 US54OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

107 60 64 1228 1 12 4 1700 45 19

MISSOURIH RAMP



CallawayPlant K49 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 108 61 60 US54 FREEWAY 2253 2 12 10 2250 75 19 109 61 62 US54 FREEWAY 2722 2 12 10 2250 75 19 US54OFFRAMPTO FREEWAY

110 61 65 1266 1 12 4 1700 45 19

MISSOURIH RAMP

111 62 61 US54 FREEWAY 2728 2 12 10 2250 75 19 112 62 63 US54 FREEWAY 4262 2 12 10 2250 75 18 113 63 62 US54 FREEWAY 4262 2 12 10 2250 75 18 114 63 74 US54 FREEWAY 3023 2 12 10 1900 75 18 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

115 64 61 1153 1 12 4 1700 45 19

MISSOURIH RAMP

116 64 65 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 660 1 12 4 1700 55 19 117 64 67 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 460 1 12 4 1700 45 19 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

118 65 60 1046 1 12 4 1700 45 19

MISSOURIH RAMP

119 65 64 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 660 1 12 4 1700 55 19 120 66 441 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1096 1 12 4 1700 40 19 121 67 64 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 460 1 12 4 1700 45 19 122 67 434 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 9300 1 10 0 1700 50 18 123 68 69 US54 FREEWAY 4916 2 12 10 1900 75 18 124 68 74 US54 FREEWAY 1540 2 12 10 1900 75 18 125 69 68 US54 FREEWAY 4916 2 12 10 1900 75 18



CallawayPlant K50 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 126 69 761 US54 FREEWAY 4402 2 12 10 1900 75 18 127 70 71 US54 FREEWAY 8586 2 12 10 1900 75 18 128 70 760 US54 FREEWAY 3526 2 12 10 1900 75 18 129 71 70 US54 FREEWAY 8581 2 12 10 1900 75 18 130 71 72 US54 FREEWAY 2677 2 12 10 2250 75 25 131 72 71 US54 FREEWAY 2677 2 12 10 2250 75 25 132 72 794 US54 FREEWAY 5359 2 12 10 2250 75 25 133 73 756 US54 FREEWAY 838 2 12 10 2250 75 25 US54OFFRAMPTOCO FREEWAY

134 73 793 1607 1 12 4 1700 45 25

RD436 RAMP

135 73 794 US54 FREEWAY 2801 2 12 10 2250 75 25 136 74 63 US54 FREEWAY 3023 2 12 10 1900 75 18 137 74 68 US54 FREEWAY 1540 2 12 10 1900 75 18 138 75 74 COUNTYRD318 COLLECTOR 285 1 10 0 1575 35 18 139 75 447 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1980 1 10 0 1700 55 18 140 77 761 COROAD328 COLLECTOR 415 1 12 4 1575 35 18 141 78 761 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 461 1 12 4 1575 35 18 I70ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

142 79 14 1227 1 12 4 1700 45 4

MISSOURIA RAMP

143 79 822 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 276 1 10 0 1700 65 4



CallawayPlant K51 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number I70ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

144 80 11 1104 1 12 4 1700 45 4

MISSOURIA RAMP

145 80 79 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 712 1 12 4 1700 65 4 146 81 412 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1525 1 10 0 1700 45 4 147 82 80 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1439 1 10 2 1700 55 4 I70ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

148 83 17 1034 1 12 4 1700 45 6

MISSOURID RAMP

149 83 84 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 898 1 12 4 1700 45 6 I70ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

150 84 16 884 1 12 4 1700 45 6

MISSOURID RAMP

151 84 83 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 898 1 12 4 1700 55 6 152 85 84 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1892 1 11 0 1700 50 6 153 92 895 OLDUS40 COLLECTOR 4377 1 10 0 1700 50 4 154 94 92 COUNTYRD159 COLLECTOR 847 1 12 4 1700 45 4 155 95 94 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 4522 1 10 0 1700 55 4 156 96 95 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2997 1 10 0 1700 55 4 157 96 785 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1726 1 10 0 1700 45 4 158 97 411 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2444 1 10 0 1700 50 4 159 98 97 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1222 1 10 0 1700 45 4 160 99 98 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1592 1 10 0 1700 45 4 161 100 99 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2448 1 10 0 1700 50 4



CallawayPlant K52 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 162 101 100 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2562 1 10 0 1700 50 13 163 102 101 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1493 1 10 0 1700 45 13 164 103 102 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 887 1 10 0 1700 45 13 165 104 103 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1111 1 10 0 1700 45 13 166 105 104 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1360 1 10 0 1700 45 13 167 106 105 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1319 1 10 0 1700 45 13 168 107 106 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1383 1 10 0 1700 45 13 169 108 107 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 802 1 10 0 1700 45 13 170 109 108 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 695 1 10 0 1700 45 13 171 111 109 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1412 1 10 0 1700 45 13 172 113 111 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2229 1 10 0 1700 45 13 173 114 113 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2116 1 10 0 1700 45 13 174 115 114 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1876 1 10 0 1700 45 13 175 116 115 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2598 1 10 0 1700 40 13 176 117 116 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1794 1 10 0 1700 55 13 177 118 117 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 2246 1 10 0 1700 55 13 178 118 222 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 1883 1 10 0 1700 45 13 179 119 82 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 2757 1 10 0 1700 55 4 180 120 119 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1609 1 10 0 1700 55 4 181 121 120 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 2646 1 10 0 1700 55 4



CallawayPlant K53 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 182 122 121 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1898 1 10 0 1700 55 4 183 123 122 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 2105 1 10 0 1700 55 4 184 124 125 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 2861 1 10 0 1700 45 4 185 125 126 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1214 1 10 0 1700 50 4 186 126 127 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1492 1 10 0 1700 50 4 187 127 128 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1411 1 10 0 1700 45 4 188 128 129 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1120 1 10 0 1700 40 4 189 129 130 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1227 1 10 0 1700 45 4 190 130 131 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 548 1 10 0 1575 35 0 191 131 132 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 3187 1 10 0 1700 50 1 192 132 133 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 740 1 10 0 1575 35 1 193 134 85 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 12316 1 10 0 1700 55 5 194 134 677 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 5535 1 10 0 1700 45 5 195 135 134 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 7633 1 10 0 1700 55 5 196 136 135 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1037 1 10 0 1700 45 14 197 137 136 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1042 1 10 0 1700 45 14 198 138 137 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1270 1 10 0 1700 45 14 199 139 138 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2194 1 10 0 1700 45 14 200 140 139 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1130 1 10 0 1700 45 14 201 141 140 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1117 1 10 0 1700 45 14



CallawayPlant K54 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 202 142 141 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1497 1 10 0 1700 45 14 203 143 142 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1304 1 10 0 1700 45 14 204 144 143 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1116 1 10 0 1700 45 14 205 145 144 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1988 1 10 0 1700 45 14 206 146 145 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1588 1 10 0 1700 45 14 207 147 146 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2933 1 10 0 1700 45 14 208 148 147 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1483 1 10 0 1700 45 14 209 149 676 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 3772 1 10 0 1700 45 14 210 150 675 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1191 1 10 0 1700 45 14 211 151 150 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1293 1 10 0 1700 45 14 212 152 674 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1302 1 10 0 1700 45 14 213 153 152 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 3761 1 10 0 1700 45 14 214 154 153 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1409 1 10 0 1700 45 21 215 155 154 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2538 1 10 0 1700 45 21 216 156 155 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 5170 1 10 0 1700 45 21 217 156 673 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5448 1 11 0 1700 55 21 218 157 156 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 4083 1 10 0 1700 55 21 219 157 158 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1470 1 10 0 1700 45 21 220 158 159 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 4245 1 10 0 1700 45 21 221 159 160 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2222 1 10 0 1700 45 21



CallawayPlant K55 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 222 160 694 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1089 1 10 0 1700 45 21 223 161 162 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2492 1 10 0 1700 45 21 224 162 163 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2938 1 10 0 1700 45 28 225 163 164 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1979 1 10 0 1700 45 28 226 164 198 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 895 1 10 0 1700 45 29 227 165 166 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1888 1 10 0 1700 45 29 228 166 167 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1290 1 10 0 1700 45 29 229 167 318 SR94 COLLECTOR 1162 1 10 0 1700 45 29 230 168 167 SR94 COLLECTOR 3802 1 10 0 1700 50 28 231 169 168 SR94 COLLECTOR 1118 1 10 0 1575 40 28 232 170 169 SR94 COLLECTOR 1107 1 10 0 1575 40 28 233 171 170 SR94 COLLECTOR 1492 1 10 0 1575 50 28 234 172 171 SR94 COLLECTOR 3196 1 10 0 1575 60 28 235 173 172 SR94 COLLECTOR 1735 1 10 0 1700 60 28 236 174 173 SR94 COLLECTOR 1229 1 10 0 1700 50 28 237 175 174 SR94 COLLECTOR 1972 1 10 0 1700 50 28 238 176 175 SR94 COLLECTOR 2825 1 10 0 1700 45 28 239 177 176 SR94 COLLECTOR 3525 1 10 0 1700 45 28 240 178 177 SR94 COLLECTOR 2523 1 10 0 1700 45 28 241 179 178 SR94 COLLECTOR 3199 1 10 0 1700 45 28



CallawayPlant K56 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 242 179 180 SR94 COLLECTOR 2463 1 10 0 1700 45 28 243 180 181 SR94 COLLECTOR 6583 1 10 0 1700 45 27 244 181 182 SR94 COLLECTOR 4147 1 10 0 1700 60 27 245 182 183 SR94 COLLECTOR 7229 1 10 0 1700 60 27 246 183 184 SR94 COLLECTOR 5399 1 10 0 1700 60 27 247 184 185 SR94 COLLECTOR 2204 1 12 0 1700 50 27 248 185 186 SR94 COLLECTOR 2505 1 10 0 1575 45 34 249 186 187 SR94 COLLECTOR 1740 1 10 0 1700 60 34 250 187 188 SR94 COLLECTOR 2987 1 10 0 1700 60 34 251 188 189 SR94 COLLECTOR 3618 1 10 0 1700 60 33 252 189 190 SR94 COLLECTOR 3809 1 10 0 1700 60 33 253 190 197 SR94 COLLECTOR 3812 1 10 0 1700 60 33 254 191 192 SR94 COLLECTOR 1984 1 10 0 1700 60 33 255 192 193 SR94 COLLECTOR 1697 1 10 0 1700 60 33 256 193 194 SR94 COLLECTOR 5360 1 10 0 1700 60 33 257 194 195 SR94 COLLECTOR 3750 1 10 0 1700 55 33 258 195 196 SR94 COLLECTOR 5336 1 10 0 1700 60 33 259 196 1 SR94 COLLECTOR 3352 1 10 0 1700 60 33 260 197 191 SR94 COLLECTOR 4009 1 10 0 1700 60 33 261 198 165 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 2052 1 10 0 1700 45 29



CallawayPlant K57 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 262 199 96 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1885 1 10 0 1700 45 4 263 200 199 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 3857 1 10 0 1700 55 4 264 201 200 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 3226 1 10 0 1700 55 4 265 202 201 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 2748 1 10 0 1700 55 4 266 203 202 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 2711 1 10 0 1700 55 13 267 204 203 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 2330 1 10 0 1700 55 13 268 205 204 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 5126 1 10 0 1700 55 10 269 206 205 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1486 1 10 0 1700 55 10 270 207 206 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 3179 1 10 0 1700 55 10 271 207 380 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1227 1 10 0 1700 55 10 272 213 214 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 1539 1 10 0 1700 60 11 273 214 215 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 2931 1 10 0 1700 60 8 274 215 216 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 3513 1 10 0 1700 60 8 275 216 217 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 1784 1 10 0 1700 60 8 276 217 218 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 2609 1 10 0 1700 60 8 277 218 219 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 1853 1 10 0 1700 60 8 278 219 220 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 2339 1 10 0 1700 60 8 279 220 221 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 2088 1 10 0 1700 60 8 280 222 223 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 1456 1 10 0 1700 40 13 281 223 224 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 971 1 10 0 1700 45 13



CallawayPlant K58 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 282 224 225 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 6896 1 10 0 1700 50 13 283 225 226 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 3866 1 10 0 1700 50 13 284 226 227 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 2085 1 10 0 1700 40 13 285 227 228 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 2031 1 10 0 1700 40 13 286 228 229 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 1613 1 10 0 1700 45 13 287 229 230 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 2177 1 10 0 1700 50 13 288 230 233 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 1623 1 10 0 1700 45 13 289 231 232 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 7181 1 10 0 1700 55 12 290 232 393 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1068 1 10 0 1700 40 12 291 233 231 MISSOURIUU COLLECTOR 1380 1 10 0 1700 45 12 292 234 717 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1266 1 8 0 1575 35 7 293 235 234 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1093 1 8 0 1700 45 7 294 236 235 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1338 1 8 0 1700 45 16 295 237 236 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1627 1 8 0 1700 45 16 296 238 237 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1678 1 8 0 1700 40 16 297 239 238 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1771 1 8 0 1700 45 16 298 240 239 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1353 1 8 0 1700 45 16 299 241 240 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2206 1 8 0 1700 45 16 300 242 241 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1352 1 8 0 1700 45 16 301 243 242 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2674 1 8 0 1700 45 16



CallawayPlant K59 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 302 244 243 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2729 1 8 0 1700 45 16 303 245 246 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2796 1 8 0 1700 40 16 304 246 247 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 737 1 8 0 1575 35 16 305 247 248 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 5186 1 8 0 1700 45 16 306 248 249 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1350 1 8 0 1575 35 16 307 249 250 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1991 1 8 0 1700 45 16 308 250 251 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1801 1 8 0 1700 45 16 309 251 252 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1654 1 8 0 1575 35 16 310 252 253 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1747 1 8 0 1700 45 16 311 253 254 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1668 1 8 0 1700 45 16 312 254 255 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2889 1 8 0 1700 45 16 313 255 256 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1691 1 8 0 1700 45 16 314 256 257 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1178 1 8 0 1700 45 17 315 257 258 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1479 1 8 0 1700 40 17 316 258 259 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1395 1 8 0 1700 45 17 317 259 718 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2303 1 8 0 1700 45 17 318 260 261 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 1196 1 11 0 1700 40 22 319 261 262 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5061 1 11 0 1700 50 22 320 262 263 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2442 1 11 0 1700 50 22 321 263 264 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2016 1 11 0 1700 50 22



CallawayPlant K60 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 322 264 265 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5328 1 11 0 1700 50 22 323 265 266 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2986 1 11 0 1700 50 22 324 266 267 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2132 1 11 0 1700 50 22 325 267 268 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5132 1 11 0 1700 50 22 326 268 269 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2301 1 11 0 1700 50 22 327 269 270 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2292 1 11 0 1700 50 22 328 270 271 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2457 1 11 0 1700 50 23 329 271 272 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5861 1 11 0 1700 50 23 330 272 273 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 3433 1 11 0 1700 50 23 331 273 274 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 1389 1 11 0 1700 50 23 332 274 275 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 1516 1 11 0 1700 50 23 333 274 284 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 3345 1 9 0 1700 55 23 334 275 276 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 4029 1 11 0 1750 50 23 335 276 277 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2365 1 11 0 1700 50 23 336 277 278 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2171 1 11 0 1700 50 23 337 278 279 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 3733 1 11 0 1700 50 23 338 279 280 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2217 1 11 0 1700 50 23 339 280 281 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5975 1 11 0 1700 50 23 340 281 282 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 1639 1 11 0 1700 50 24 341 282 283 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 3926 1 11 0 1700 50 24



CallawayPlant K61 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 342 283 726 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 2813 1 11 0 1700 50 24 343 284 285 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 4529 1 9 0 1700 55 23 344 285 286 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 1457 1 9 0 1700 55 23 345 286 287 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 2059 1 9 0 1700 55 23 346 287 288 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 1032 1 9 0 1700 45 23 347 288 289 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 4228 1 9 0 1700 55 23 348 289 290 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 1295 1 9 0 1700 55 30 349 290 291 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 2051 1 9 0 1700 40 30 350 291 292 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 2544 1 9 0 1700 40 30 351 292 293 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 1285 1 9 0 1700 40 30 352 293 294 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 2677 1 9 0 1700 40 30 353 294 295 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 1157 1 9 0 1700 40 30 354 295 296 MISSOURIP COLLECTOR 1936 1 9 0 1700 40 30 355 296 297 SR94 COLLECTOR 3693 1 10 0 1700 60 30 356 297 298 SR94 COLLECTOR 3865 1 10 0 1750 60 31 357 298 299 SR94 COLLECTOR 1850 1 10 0 1700 55 31 358 299 300 SR94 COLLECTOR 3426 1 10 0 1700 55 31 359 301 302 SR94 COLLECTOR 2195 1 10 0 1700 45 29 360 302 303 SR94 COLLECTOR 1290 1 10 0 1700 45 29 361 303 304 SR94 COLLECTOR 2045 1 10 0 1700 45 29



CallawayPlant K62 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 362 304 305 SR94 COLLECTOR 1919 1 10 0 1700 45 29 363 305 306 SR94 COLLECTOR 926 1 10 0 1700 45 29 364 306 307 SR94 COLLECTOR 1143 1 10 0 1700 45 29 365 307 308 SR94 COLLECTOR 1216 1 10 0 1700 45 29 366 308 309 SR94 COLLECTOR 3725 1 10 0 1700 45 29 367 309 310 SR94 COLLECTOR 2587 1 10 0 1700 50 29 368 310 311 SR94 COLLECTOR 1319 1 10 0 1700 50 29 369 311 312 SR94 COLLECTOR 3342 1 10 0 1700 50 29 370 312 313 SR94 COLLECTOR 2463 1 10 0 1700 45 29 LOCAL

371 313 314 SR94 755 1 10 0 1350 30 29

ROADWAY

372 314 315 SR94 COLLECTOR 9232 1 10 0 1700 60 30 373 315 316 SR94 COLLECTOR 7082 1 10 0 1700 60 30 374 316 317 SR94 COLLECTOR 4978 1 10 0 1700 60 30 375 317 296 SR94 COLLECTOR 5963 1 10 0 1700 60 30 376 318 301 SR94 COLLECTOR 1006 1 10 0 1700 45 29 377 319 347 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1387 1 10 0 1700 45 21 LOCAL

378 319 348 MISSOURIO 652 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY

379 320 321 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1816 1 10 0 1700 45 21



CallawayPlant K63 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 380 321 322 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 2531 1 10 0 1700 45 20 381 322 323 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 983 1 10 0 1700 45 20 382 323 324 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1951 1 10 0 1700 45 20 383 324 325 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 2333 1 10 0 1700 45 27 384 325 326 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1842 1 10 0 1700 45 27 385 326 327 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 733 1 10 0 1700 40 27 386 327 328 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 2427 1 10 0 1700 45 27 387 328 329 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1629 1 10 0 1700 45 27 388 329 330 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 677 1 10 0 1700 45 27 389 330 335 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1715 1 10 0 1700 45 27 390 331 332 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1717 1 10 0 1700 45 27 391 332 333 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1504 1 10 0 1700 45 27 392 333 334 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 2385 1 10 0 1700 45 27 393 334 181 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 2078 1 10 0 1700 45 27 394 335 331 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 1371 1 10 0 1700 45 27 395 336 157 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1887 1 10 0 1700 45 21 396 337 336 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1635 1 10 0 1700 45 21 397 338 337 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1259 1 10 0 1700 45 21 398 339 338 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 448 1 10 0 1700 40 21 399 340 339 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1924 1 10 0 1700 45 21



CallawayPlant K64 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 400 341 340 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1753 1 10 0 1700 45 21 401 342 341 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1026 1 10 0 1700 40 21 402 343 342 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1057 1 10 0 1700 45 21 403 344 343 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1570 1 10 0 1700 45 21 404 345 344 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 828 1 10 0 1700 45 21 405 346 972 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 3099 1 10 0 1700 55 21 406 347 346 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 867 1 10 0 1700 45 21 LOCAL

407 348 349 MISSOURIO 3276 1 10 0 1350 30 20

ROADWAY

LOCAL

408 349 350 MISSOURIO 478 1 10 0 1350 30 20

ROADWAY

409 350 351 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 442 1 10 0 1700 45 20 410 351 352 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 680 1 10 0 1700 45 20 411 352 353 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 3720 1 10 0 1700 50 20 412 353 354 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1266 1 10 0 1700 45 20 413 354 355 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 912 1 10 0 1700 45 20 414 355 356 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 826 1 10 0 1700 45 20 415 356 357 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 2775 1 10 0 1700 45 20 416 357 358 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 686 1 10 0 1575 35 20 417 358 359 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1873 1 10 0 1700 45 20



CallawayPlant K65 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 418 359 360 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 2066 1 10 0 1700 50 20 419 360 361 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1520 1 10 0 1700 45 20 420 361 362 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1590 1 10 0 1700 45 20 421 362 363 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 700 1 10 0 1700 45 20 422 363 364 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1547 1 10 0 1575 35 20 423 364 365 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1110 1 10 0 1700 45 20 424 365 366 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1510 1 10 0 1700 45 20 425 366 367 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 833 1 10 0 1700 45 20 426 367 368 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 882 1 10 0 1700 45 20 427 368 369 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1086 1 10 0 1575 35 20 428 369 370 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1813 1 10 0 1700 45 20 429 370 371 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1823 1 10 0 1700 45 20 430 371 372 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 2392 1 10 0 1700 45 19 431 372 373 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 3485 1 10 0 1700 50 19 432 373 374 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1463 1 10 0 1700 45 19 433 374 375 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 974 1 10 0 1700 45 19 434 375 376 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1719 1 10 0 1700 45 19 435 376 377 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1197 1 10 0 1700 45 12 436 377 378 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 4199 1 10 0 1700 45 12 437 378 379 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1002 1 10 0 1700 45 12



CallawayPlant K66 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 438 379 232 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 1163 1 10 0 1700 45 12 439 380 207 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1227 1 10 0 1700 55 10 440 380 381 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1598 1 10 0 1700 45 10 441 381 380 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1598 1 10 0 1700 45 10 442 381 382 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1005 1 10 0 1700 45 10 443 382 381 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1005 1 10 0 1700 45 10 444 382 383 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1331 1 10 0 1700 45 10 445 383 382 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1331 1 10 0 1700 45 10 446 383 384 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1410 1 10 0 1700 40 10 447 384 383 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1406 1 10 0 1700 40 10 448 384 385 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1617 1 10 0 1575 35 10 449 384 806 WOODST COLLECTOR 3411 1 10 4 1575 35 10 450 385 386 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 883 1 10 0 1750 35 9 451 386 776 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1969 1 10 0 1750 35 11 452 386 809 BUS54 COLLECTOR 1255 1 12 4 1750 40 9 LOCAL

453 387 388 US54BUS 902 1 12 0 1125 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

454 387 815 BLUFFST 1650 1 12 0 1350 30 11

ROADWAY

455 387 865 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1001 1 10 0 1575 35 11



CallawayPlant K67 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number LOCAL

456 388 387 US54BUS 902 1 12 0 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

457 388 813 US54BUS 1112 1 12 0 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

458 389 401 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1041 1 10 0 1575 35 11 US54BUSTRAFFICCIRCLE LOCAL

459 389 967 128 1 12 4 1125 25 11

TOSTATERDC ROADWAY

LOCAL

460 390 815 BLUFFST 1113 1 12 0 1125 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

461 390 967 STATERDC 668 1 12 4 1125 25 11

ROADWAY

462 391 390 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 882 1 12 0 1575 35 11 463 391 863 OAKST COLLECTOR 1111 1 12 4 1575 35 12 464 392 391 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 2350 1 10 0 1700 40 12 465 392 784 WOODST COLLECTOR 2946 1 10 4 1575 35 12 466 393 392 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 2124 1 10 0 1700 40 12 LOCAL

467 394 395 W4THST 278 1 10 0 1125 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

468 394 813 US54BUS 300 1 12 0 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

469 394 966 US54BUS 669 1 10 4 1125 25 11

ROADWAY



CallawayPlant K68 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 470 395 396 W4THST COLLECTOR 1714 1 10 0 1750 35 11 471 396 397 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 1092 1 12 10 1575 40 11 472 396 818 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 1210 1 12 0 1575 35 11 473 396 985 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 296 1 10 0 1700 45 11 474 397 398 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 625 1 12 10 1575 55 11 475 398 58 MLKJRBLVD COLLECTOR 1299 1 12 10 1700 55 11 476 399 400 US54BUS COLLECTOR 2428 1 12 6 1700 40 9 477 399 805 INDUSTRIALDR COLLECTOR 2591 1 12 4 1700 40 9 478 399 809 US54BUS COLLECTOR 2329 1 12 4 1750 40 9 479 400 48 US54BUS COLLECTOR 3660 1 12 6 1700 45 9 480 400 868 WSTEUNICERD COLLECTOR 4472 1 10 0 1575 35 9 481 401 402 US54BUS COLLECTOR 989 1 10 0 1700 40 11 482 402 403 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1458 1 10 0 1700 40 11 483 403 404 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1715 1 10 0 1700 40 11 484 404 405 US54BUS COLLECTOR 2010 1 10 0 1700 40 11 485 405 963 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1105 1 10 0 1700 40 11 486 406 390 STATERDC COLLECTOR 1557 1 10 0 1575 35 11 487 407 406 STATERDC COLLECTOR 2268 1 10 0 1575 35 11 488 408 407 STATERDC COLLECTOR 2519 1 10 0 1575 35 11 489 408 763 TYNNYSONRD COLLECTOR 1818 1 10 0 1700 45 11



CallawayPlant K69 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 490 409 408 STATERDC COLLECTOR 2098 1 10 0 1575 35 11 491 411 96 MISSOURIJJ COLLECTOR 1003 1 10 0 1700 45 4 492 412 124 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 1313 1 10 0 1700 45 4 493 413 409 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 3122 1 10 0 1700 55 19 494 414 413 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2666 1 10 0 1700 60 19 495 415 414 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 4309 1 10 0 1700 60 19 496 416 415 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2229 1 10 0 1700 60 19 497 417 416 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2453 1 10 0 1700 60 19 498 418 417 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 1821 1 10 0 1700 60 19 499 419 418 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2926 1 10 0 1700 60 19 500 420 817 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 4599 1 10 0 1700 60 19 501 421 420 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2780 1 10 0 1700 60 19 502 422 421 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 7564 1 10 0 1700 55 19 503 422 423 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 7143 1 10 0 1700 60 26 504 423 424 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 3272 1 10 0 1700 60 26 505 424 425 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 1826 1 10 0 1700 60 26 506 425 426 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2184 1 10 0 1700 60 26 507 426 427 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 1953 1 10 0 1700 60 26 508 427 428 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2725 1 10 0 1700 60 26 509 428 429 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 2526 1 10 0 1700 55 27



CallawayPlant K70 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 510 429 430 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 3474 1 10 0 1700 55 27 511 430 431 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 3038 1 10 0 1700 40 27 LOCAL

512 431 185 FULTONAVE 1472 1 12 4 1350 30 34

ROADWAY

513 432 433 CORD304 COLLECTOR 6402 1 10 0 1700 45 8 514 433 217 COROUTE305 COLLECTOR 7431 1 10 0 1700 50 8 515 433 434 COROUTE305 COLLECTOR 8076 1 10 0 1700 50 8 516 434 67 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 9300 1 10 0 1700 50 18 517 434 435 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 3109 1 10 0 1700 50 18 518 435 436 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 2031 1 10 0 1700 50 18 519 436 437 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 968 1 10 0 1700 50 18 520 437 795 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 1019 1 10 0 1700 50 18 521 438 439 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 1667 1 10 0 1700 50 18 522 439 440 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 1335 1 10 0 1700 50 18 523 441 65 US54BUS COLLECTOR 311 1 12 4 1700 55 19 524 442 441 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 927 1 10 0 1700 45 19 525 443 442 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 1139 1 10 0 1700 50 19 526 444 443 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 2705 1 10 0 1700 50 19 527 444 445 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 3929 1 10 0 1700 55 18 528 445 446 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1882 1 10 0 1700 55 18



CallawayPlant K71 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 529 446 75 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 842 1 10 0 1700 55 18 530 447 448 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1272 1 10 0 1700 55 18 531 448 449 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1395 1 10 0 1700 55 18 532 449 802 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1975 1 10 0 1700 55 18 533 450 451 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 2941 1 10 0 1700 55 18 534 451 78 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 624 1 12 4 1700 45 18 535 451 452 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 2154 1 10 0 1700 55 18 536 452 453 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 3644 1 10 0 1700 55 18 537 453 70 ACCESSRD COLLECTOR 322 1 10 0 1575 35 18 538 453 454 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 978 1 10 0 1700 55 18 539 454 455 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1635 1 10 0 1700 55 18 540 455 456 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 1887 1 10 0 1700 55 18 541 456 457 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 766 1 10 0 1700 55 25 542 457 458 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 760 1 10 0 1700 55 25 543 458 459 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 2917 1 10 0 1700 55 25 544 459 460 PLATINUMRD COLLECTOR 2418 1 10 0 1700 55 25 545 460 461 PLATINUMRD COLLECTOR 3758 1 10 0 1700 55 25 546 461 757 PLATINUMRD COLLECTOR 3118 1 10 0 1700 55 25 547 462 451 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 3272 1 10 0 1700 55 18 548 463 462 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 836 1 10 0 1700 55 18



CallawayPlant K72 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 549 464 820 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 803 1 10 0 1575 35 25 550 465 821 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 677 1 10 0 1575 35 25 551 466 465 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2219 1 10 0 1700 55 25 552 467 466 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 5331 1 10 0 1700 55 25 LOCAL

553 467 750 CORD436 2660 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

554 468 467 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2577 1 10 0 1700 55 25 555 468 469 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 5598 1 10 0 1700 45 25 556 469 470 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1106 1 10 0 1575 35 25 557 470 471 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 3764 1 10 0 1700 45 25 558 471 472 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 835 1 10 0 1700 45 25 559 472 473 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 725 1 10 0 1700 40 25 560 473 474 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1136 1 10 0 1700 40 25 561 474 475 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 905 1 10 0 1700 45 25 562 475 476 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2070 1 10 0 1700 45 25 563 476 477 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 951 1 10 0 1700 45 25 564 477 478 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2072 1 10 0 1700 45 32 565 478 479 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 441 1 10 0 1700 40 32 566 479 480 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1073 1 10 0 1700 45 32 567 480 481 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1879 1 10 0 1700 45 32



CallawayPlant K73 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 568 481 869 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 672 1 10 0 1700 45 32 569 482 483 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2482 1 10 0 1700 45 32 570 483 484 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2101 1 10 0 1700 45 32 571 484 485 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 3844 1 10 0 1700 45 32 572 485 486 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 2183 1 10 0 1700 45 32 573 486 487 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1399 1 10 0 1700 45 32 574 487 679 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1854 1 10 0 1700 45 32 575 489 488 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1589 1 10 0 1700 55 38 576 490 489 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 981 1 10 0 1700 55 38 577 491 490 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 736 1 10 0 1700 55 38 578 492 491 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 881 1 10 0 1700 55 38 579 493 492 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 725 1 10 0 1700 55 38 580 494 493 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1774 1 10 0 1700 55 38 581 495 494 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1738 1 10 0 1700 55 38 582 496 495 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1724 1 10 0 1700 55 38 583 497 496 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1352 1 10 0 1700 55 38 584 498 497 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 739 1 10 0 1700 55 33 585 499 498 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 684 1 10 0 1700 55 33 586 500 499 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1353 1 10 0 1700 55 33 587 501 500 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1096 1 10 0 1700 55 33



CallawayPlant K74 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 588 502 501 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 923 1 10 0 1700 55 33 589 503 502 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1769 1 10 0 1700 55 33 590 504 503 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1731 1 10 0 1700 55 33 591 505 504 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1785 1 10 0 1700 55 33 592 506 505 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1183 1 10 0 1700 55 39 593 507 506 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1175 1 10 0 1700 55 39 594 508 507 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 4884 1 10 0 1700 55 39 595 509 508 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1640 1 10 0 1700 55 39 596 510 509 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 669 1 10 0 1700 55 39 597 511 510 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1039 1 10 0 1700 40 39 598 512 511 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 942 1 10 0 1700 40 39 599 513 969 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1987 1 10 0 1700 45 39 600 514 513 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1034 1 10 0 1700 55 39 601 515 514 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1138 1 10 0 1700 55 39 602 516 515 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 769 1 10 0 1700 55 39 603 517 516 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1779 1 10 0 1700 55 39 604 518 517 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1804 1 10 0 1700 55 39 605 519 518 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 1167 1 10 0 1700 55 39 606 520 519 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 2719 1 10 0 1700 55 39 607 521 520 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 2303 1 10 0 1700 55 39



CallawayPlant K75 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 608 522 521 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 2029 1 10 0 1700 55 39 609 522 586 SR100 COLLECTOR 2770 1 10 0 1700 50 39 610 523 522 SR100 COLLECTOR 1356 1 10 0 1700 45 39 611 524 523 SR100 COLLECTOR 3278 1 10 0 1700 50 39 612 525 524 SR100 COLLECTOR 2031 1 10 0 1700 50 39 613 526 525 SR100 COLLECTOR 2292 1 10 0 1700 50 39 614 527 526 SR100 COLLECTOR 2640 1 10 0 1700 50 39 615 528 527 SR100 COLLECTOR 1259 1 10 0 1700 50 39 616 529 528 SR100 COLLECTOR 2067 1 10 0 1700 50 39 617 530 529 SR100 COLLECTOR 1913 1 10 0 1700 50 39 618 531 530 SR100 COLLECTOR 1423 1 10 0 1700 50 39 619 532 531 SR100 COLLECTOR 2297 1 10 0 1700 50 39 620 533 532 SR100 COLLECTOR 2602 1 10 0 1700 50 34 621 534 533 SR100 COLLECTOR 1685 1 10 0 1700 50 34 622 535 534 SR100 COLLECTOR 1181 1 10 0 1700 50 34 623 536 535 SR100 COLLECTOR 967 1 10 0 1700 50 34 624 537 536 SR100 COLLECTOR 1221 1 10 0 1700 50 34 625 538 537 SR100 COLLECTOR 762 1 10 0 1700 50 34 626 539 538 SR100 COLLECTOR 1266 1 10 0 1700 50 34 627 540 539 SR100 COLLECTOR 2809 1 10 0 1700 50 34



CallawayPlant K76 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 628 541 540 SR100 COLLECTOR 1734 1 10 0 1700 50 34 629 542 541 SR100 COLLECTOR 1179 1 10 0 1700 50 34 630 543 542 SR100 COLLECTOR 1841 1 10 0 1700 50 34 631 544 543 SR100 COLLECTOR 2108 1 10 0 1700 50 34 632 545 544 SR100 COLLECTOR 2560 1 10 0 1700 50 34 633 546 545 SR100 COLLECTOR 1469 1 10 0 1700 50 34 634 547 546 SR100 COLLECTOR 1318 1 10 0 1575 35 34 635 548 547 SR100 COLLECTOR 4685 1 10 0 1700 55 34 636 549 548 SR100 COLLECTOR 8540 1 10 0 1700 55 34 637 550 549 SR100 COLLECTOR 4918 1 10 0 1700 55 28 638 551 550 SR100 COLLECTOR 1705 1 10 0 1575 35 28 639 551 552 SR100 COLLECTOR 2475 1 10 0 1575 35 28 LOCAL

640 551 788 SR89 998 1 12 4 1125 25 28

ROADWAY

641 552 553 SR100 COLLECTOR 5820 1 10 0 1700 50 28 642 553 911 SR100 COLLECTOR 2258 1 10 0 1700 50 28 643 554 555 SR100 COLLECTOR 2221 1 10 0 1700 50 28 644 555 556 SR100 COLLECTOR 5266 1 10 0 1700 50 28 645 556 557 SR100 COLLECTOR 10362 1 10 0 1700 50 29 646 557 910 SR100 COLLECTOR 4468 1 10 0 1700 50 29



CallawayPlant K77 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 647 558 559 SR100 COLLECTOR 1330 1 10 0 1700 50 29 648 559 560 SR100 COLLECTOR 2646 1 10 0 1700 50 29 649 560 561 SR100 COLLECTOR 2814 1 10 0 1700 50 29 650 561 562 SR100 COLLECTOR 1303 1 10 0 1700 45 29 651 562 563 SR100 COLLECTOR 4601 1 10 0 1700 45 36 652 563 564 SR100 COLLECTOR 1238 1 10 0 1700 50 36 653 564 565 SR100 COLLECTOR 2169 1 10 0 1700 50 36 654 565 566 SR100 COLLECTOR 1312 1 10 0 1700 50 36 655 566 567 SR100 COLLECTOR 1430 1 10 0 1700 45 36 656 566 652 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1296 1 10 0 1700 45 36 657 567 568 SR100 COLLECTOR 2725 1 10 0 1700 45 36 658 568 569 SR100 COLLECTOR 1158 1 10 0 1700 45 37 659 569 570 SR100 COLLECTOR 902 1 10 0 1700 45 37 660 570 571 SR100 COLLECTOR 866 1 10 0 1700 45 37 661 571 572 SR100 COLLECTOR 2066 1 10 0 1700 45 37 662 572 573 SR100 COLLECTOR 2244 1 10 0 1700 45 37 663 573 574 SR100 COLLECTOR 842 1 10 0 1700 45 37 664 574 575 SR100 COLLECTOR 3170 1 10 0 1700 45 37 665 575 576 SR100 COLLECTOR 1215 1 10 0 1700 45 37 666 576 577 SR100 COLLECTOR 1296 1 10 0 1700 45 37



CallawayPlant K78 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 667 577 578 SR100 COLLECTOR 2886 1 10 0 1700 55 37 668 578 579 SR100 COLLECTOR 2098 1 10 0 1700 55 37 669 579 580 SR100 COLLECTOR 1022 1 10 0 1700 45 37 670 580 581 SR100 COLLECTOR 2251 1 10 0 1700 55 37 671 581 582 SR100 COLLECTOR 1217 1 10 0 1700 55 37 672 582 583 SR100 COLLECTOR 3236 1 10 0 1700 55 37 673 583 584 SR100 COLLECTOR 2505 1 10 0 1700 50 37 674 584 585 SR100 COLLECTOR 3818 1 10 0 1700 55 37 675 585 904 SR100 COLLECTOR 2867 1 10 0 1700 55 0 676 586 587 SR100 COLLECTOR 708 1 10 0 1700 50 39 677 587 588 SR100 COLLECTOR 1181 1 10 0 1700 50 39 678 590 589 SR89 COLLECTOR 3508 1 11 0 1700 50 40 679 591 590 SR89 COLLECTOR 1902 1 11 0 1700 50 40 680 592 591 SR89 COLLECTOR 3723 1 11 0 1700 50 40 681 593 592 SR89 COLLECTOR 3769 1 11 0 1700 50 40 682 594 593 SR89 COLLECTOR 1395 1 11 0 1700 50 40 683 595 594 SR89 COLLECTOR 1305 1 11 0 1700 50 40 684 596 595 SR89 COLLECTOR 5290 1 11 0 1700 50 40 685 597 596 SR89 COLLECTOR 3917 1 11 0 1700 50 40 686 598 597 SR89 COLLECTOR 2469 1 11 0 1700 50 40



CallawayPlant K79 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 687 599 598 SR89 COLLECTOR 2243 1 11 0 1700 50 40 688 600 599 SR89 COLLECTOR 1307 1 11 0 1700 50 35 689 601 600 SR89 COLLECTOR 1388 1 11 0 1700 50 35 690 602 601 SR89 COLLECTOR 2400 1 11 0 1700 50 35 691 603 602 SR89 COLLECTOR 3079 1 11 0 1700 50 35 692 604 603 SR89 COLLECTOR 1561 1 11 0 1700 50 35 693 605 604 SR89 COLLECTOR 2410 1 11 0 1700 50 35 694 606 671 SR89 COLLECTOR 2219 1 11 0 1700 50 35 695 607 606 SR89 COLLECTOR 2246 1 11 0 1700 50 35 696 608 607 SR89 COLLECTOR 903 1 11 0 1700 50 35 697 609 608 SR89 COLLECTOR 3518 1 11 0 1700 50 35 698 610 609 SR89 COLLECTOR 1304 1 11 0 1700 50 35 699 611 610 SR89 COLLECTOR 1479 1 11 0 1700 50 35 700 612 611 SR89 COLLECTOR 1923 1 11 0 1700 50 35 701 613 612 SR89 COLLECTOR 1053 1 11 0 1700 50 35 702 614 613 SR89 COLLECTOR 1002 1 11 0 1700 50 35 703 615 614 SR89 COLLECTOR 2043 1 11 0 1700 50 35 704 616 615 SR89 COLLECTOR 3280 1 11 0 1575 35 35 LOCAL

705 617 616 SR89 1179 1 11 0 1350 30 35

ROADWAY



CallawayPlant K80 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number LOCAL

706 617 678 SR89 305 1 12 4 1125 25 35

ROADWAY

LOCAL

707 618 678 SR89 221 1 12 4 1125 25 35

ROADWAY

LOCAL

708 618 788 SR89 584 1 12 4 1125 25 28

ROADWAY

709 624 623 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1643 1 10 0 1700 45 41 710 625 624 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2105 1 10 0 1700 45 41 711 626 625 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2097 1 10 0 1700 45 41 712 627 626 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1644 1 10 0 1700 45 41 713 628 627 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1292 1 10 0 1700 45 41 714 629 628 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1468 1 10 0 1700 45 41 715 630 629 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1643 1 10 0 1700 45 41 716 631 630 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1151 1 10 0 1700 45 41 717 632 631 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2243 1 10 0 1700 45 41 718 633 632 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1496 1 10 0 1700 45 41 719 634 633 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1717 1 10 0 1700 45 41 720 634 670 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1176 1 10 0 1700 50 41 721 635 634 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1466 1 10 0 1700 45 36 722 636 635 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1598 1 10 0 1700 45 36 723 637 636 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1684 1 10 0 1700 45 36



CallawayPlant K81 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 724 638 637 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2901 1 10 0 1700 45 36 725 639 638 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 813 1 10 0 1700 45 36 726 640 639 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2933 1 10 0 1700 45 36 727 641 640 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1241 1 10 0 1700 45 36 728 642 641 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 809 1 10 0 1700 45 36 729 643 642 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1903 1 10 0 1700 45 36 730 644 643 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1555 1 10 0 1700 45 36 731 645 644 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1022 1 10 0 1700 45 36 732 646 645 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1038 1 10 0 1700 45 36 733 647 646 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1231 1 10 0 1700 45 36 734 648 672 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1125 1 10 0 1700 45 36 735 649 648 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1766 1 10 0 1700 45 36 736 650 649 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1302 1 10 0 1700 45 36 737 651 650 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2613 1 10 0 1700 45 36 738 652 651 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1212 1 10 0 1700 45 36 739 664 792 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2461 1 10 0 1700 45 36 740 665 666 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 934 1 10 0 1700 45 41 741 665 905 MISSOURIOO COLLECTOR 618 1 10 0 1700 50 41 742 666 665 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 933 1 10 0 1700 45 41 743 666 668 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 3007 1 10 0 1700 50 41



CallawayPlant K82 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 744 668 666 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 3027 1 10 0 1700 50 41 745 668 670 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1987 1 10 0 1700 50 41 746 670 634 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1176 1 10 0 1700 50 41 747 670 668 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1957 1 10 0 1700 50 41 748 671 605 SR89 COLLECTOR 1799 1 11 0 1700 50 35 749 672 647 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1405 1 10 0 1700 45 36 750 673 260 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 5084 1 11 0 1700 55 22 751 674 151 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1589 1 10 0 1700 45 14 752 675 149 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1502 1 10 0 1700 45 14 753 676 148 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 1392 1 10 0 1700 45 14 754 677 697 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 6315 1 10 0 1700 45 5 LOCAL

755 678 617 SR89 305 1 12 4 1125 25 35

ROADWAY

LOCAL

756 678 618 SR89 221 1 12 4 1125 25 35

ROADWAY

757 679 680 STATEHWYAA COLLECTOR 3687 1 10 0 1700 55 32 758 680 681 STATEHWYAA COLLECTOR 2204 1 10 0 1700 55 32 759 681 1 STATEHWYAA COLLECTOR 1844 1 10 0 1700 40 32 760 685 345 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 4340 1 10 0 1700 55 21 761 687 320 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 556 1 10 0 1700 45 21



CallawayPlant K83 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 762 687 970 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 760 1 10 0 1700 60 21 LOCAL

763 688 687 COUNTYRD459 983 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY

764 689 244 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1511 1 8 0 1700 45 16 765 689 245 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2209 1 8 0 1700 45 16 766 691 118 COUNTYRD133 COLLECTOR 1254 1 10 0 1700 40 13 767 694 161 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 4073 1 10 0 1700 45 21 768 696 422 STATERDVV COLLECTOR 3045 1 10 0 1700 45 26 769 697 823 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 5991 1 10 0 1700 45 5 LOCAL

770 699 968 E2NDST 630 1 10 4 1350 30 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

771 701 179 COUNTYRD459 2261 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

772 702 703 PLANTACCESSRD COLLECTOR 1320 1 10 0 1350 30 21 LOCAL

773 703 688 COUNTYRD459 2881 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY

LOCAL

774 703 704 COUNTYRD459 1370 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY

LOCAL

775 704 705 COUNTYRD459 1344 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY

LOCAL

776 705 706 COUNTYRD459 833 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY



CallawayPlant K84 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number LOCAL

777 706 707 COUNTYRD459 1934 1 10 0 1350 30 21

ROADWAY

LOCAL

778 707 708 COUNTYRD459 1831 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

779 708 709 COUNTYRD459 1049 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

780 709 710 COUNTYRD459 787 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

781 710 711 COUNTYRD459 864 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

782 711 712 COUNTYRD459 1843 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

783 712 713 COUNTYRD459 1311 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

784 713 714 COUNTYRD459 1143 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

785 714 715 COUNTYRD459 2454 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

786 715 701 COUNTYRD459 2330 1 10 0 1350 30 28

ROADWAY

787 716 85 COUNTYRD1005 COLLECTOR 1086 1 10 0 1700 45 6 788 717 796 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1069 1 12 0 1700 40 7 789 718 719 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1764 1 8 0 1700 45 17



CallawayPlant K85 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 790 719 720 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1948 1 8 0 1700 45 17 791 720 721 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2227 1 8 0 1700 45 24 792 721 722 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2000 1 8 0 1700 45 24 793 722 723 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 628 1 10 0 1700 45 24 794 723 724 SR19 COLLECTOR 3641 1 10 2 1700 45 24 795 724 725 SR19 COLLECTOR 1009 1 10 2 1700 50 24 796 726 724 MISSOURIK COLLECTOR 1852 1 11 0 1700 50 24 797 728 188 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 3582 1 10 0 1575 35 33 LOCAL

798 750 751 CORD436 1708 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

LOCAL

799 751 752 CORD436 2410 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

LOCAL

800 752 753 CORD436 4342 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

LOCAL

801 753 754 CORD436 1029 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

LOCAL

802 754 755 CORD436 3731 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

LOCAL

803 755 757 CORD436 3616 1 10 0 1350 30 25

ROADWAY

804 756 73 US54 FREEWAY 838 2 12 10 2250 75 25 805 757 793 CORD436 COLLECTOR 367 1 12 4 1700 45 25



CallawayPlant K86 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

806 758 73 1134 1 12 4 1700 45 25

CORD436 RAMP

807 759 77 COROAD328 COLLECTOR 1884 1 10 0 1700 45 18 808 760 70 US54 FREEWAY 3526 2 12 10 1900 75 18 809 760 761 US54 FREEWAY 2982 2 12 10 1900 75 18 810 761 69 US54 FREEWAY 4402 2 12 10 1900 75 18 811 761 760 US54 FREEWAY 2982 2 12 10 1900 75 18 812 763 764 TYNNYSONRD COLLECTOR 2659 1 10 0 1700 45 11 813 764 405 TYNNYSONRD COLLECTOR 988 1 10 0 1700 40 11 814 765 766 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 1205 1 10 0 1700 45 11 815 765 979 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 1803 1 10 0 1700 45 11 816 766 765 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 1205 1 10 0 1700 45 11 817 766 767 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 3170 1 10 0 1700 45 9 818 767 766 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 3170 1 10 0 1700 45 9 819 767 768 WILLIAMWOODSAVE COLLECTOR 809 1 10 0 1700 45 9 820 768 832 WILLIAMWOODSAVE COLLECTOR 2884 1 10 0 1700 45 9 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

821 769 49 1092 1 12 4 1700 50 9

MISSOURIHH RAMP

822 769 770 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 704 1 12 4 1700 45 9 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

823 770 50 1160 1 12 4 1700 50 9

MISSOURIHH RAMP



CallawayPlant K87 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 824 770 769 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 704 1 12 4 1700 45 9 825 770 890 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 398 1 12 4 1700 45 9 826 771 772 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 2252 1 10 0 1700 55 9 827 772 773 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 2329 1 10 0 1700 55 9 828 773 774 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 3269 1 10 0 1700 55 9 829 774 894 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 702 1 10 0 1575 35 3 830 776 386 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1970 1 10 0 1750 35 11 831 776 865 US54BUS COLLECTOR 400 1 10 0 1575 35 11 832 776 977 E10THST COLLECTOR 1148 1 12 4 1575 35 11 833 777 778 BARTLEYLN COLLECTOR 5658 1 12 0 1575 35 12 834 778 780 BARTLEYLN COLLECTOR 2484 1 12 0 1575 35 12 835 779 776 E10THST COLLECTOR 398 1 10 0 1750 35 11 836 780 384 WOODST COLLECTOR 2274 1 10 4 1575 35 12 837 780 982 E10THST COLLECTOR 1696 1 10 0 1575 35 12 838 784 780 WOODST COLLECTOR 1233 1 10 4 1575 35 12 LOCAL

839 784 811 E8THST 1722 1 10 0 1350 30 12

ROADWAY

840 785 123 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1032 1 10 0 1700 55 4 LOCAL

841 788 551 SR89 998 1 12 4 1125 25 28

ROADWAY



CallawayPlant K88 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number LOCAL

842 788 618 SR89 584 1 12 4 1125 25 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

843 789 788 2NDST 798 1 12 4 1125 25 28

ROADWAY

LOCAL

844 790 788 2NDST 802 1 12 4 1125 25 28

ROADWAY

845 792 665 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1597 1 10 0 1700 45 41 846 793 758 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 884 1 12 4 1700 45 25 US54ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

847 793 794 1309 1 12 4 1700 45 25

CORD436 RAMP

848 794 72 US54 FREEWAY 5359 2 12 10 2250 75 25 849 794 73 US54 FREEWAY 2801 2 12 10 2250 75 25 US54OFFRAMPTOCO FREEWAY

850 794 758 1754 1 12 4 1700 45 25

RD436 RAMP

851 795 438 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 3592 1 10 0 1700 50 18 852 796 797 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 3002 1 12 0 1700 40 7 853 797 798 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 740 1 12 0 1700 40 7 854 798 799 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 427 1 12 0 1700 40 7 I70ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

855 799 800 1228 1 12 4 1700 45 7

MISSOURIJ RAMP

856 799 801 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 680 1 12 0 1700 40 7 857 800 26 I70 FREEWAY 2433 2 12 10 2250 75 7



CallawayPlant K89 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 858 800 976 I70 FREEWAY 642 2 12 10 2250 75 7 I70ONRAMPFROM FREEWAY

859 801 26 1365 1 12 4 1700 45 7

MISSOURIJ RAMP

860 802 450 OLDUSHWY54 COLLECTOR 2685 1 10 0 1700 55 18 861 803 32 GOLDRD COLLECTOR 391 1 12 4 1750 35 3 862 804 32 GOLDRD COLLECTOR 849 1 12 4 1750 35 3 863 805 767 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 1620 1 12 4 1700 40 9 864 806 399 INDUSTRIALDR COLLECTOR 2670 1 10 0 1750 35 10 865 806 866 WOODST COLLECTOR 2291 1 10 4 1575 35 10 866 807 809 DOUGLASBLVD COLLECTOR 1325 1 10 0 1750 35 9 LOCAL

867 808 809 WALLMARTDRIVEWAY 337 1 10 0 1750 25 9

ROADWAY

868 809 386 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1255 1 12 4 1750 40 9 869 809 399 US54BUS COLLECTOR 2329 1 12 4 1750 40 9 LOCAL

870 810 386 UNIVERSITYAVE 511 1 12 4 1750 30 9

ROADWAY

LOCAL

871 811 387 STLOUISAVE 896 1 10 0 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

872 811 983 VINEST COLLECTOR 867 1 12 4 1575 35 12 LOCAL

873 813 388 US54BUS 1112 1 12 0 1125 25 11

ROADWAY



CallawayPlant K90 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number LOCAL

874 813 394 US54BUS 300 1 12 0 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

875 813 814 W5THST COLLECTOR 274 1 12 4 1575 35 11 876 814 395 COURTST COLLECTOR 302 1 12 4 1575 35 11 877 814 985 W5THST COLLECTOR 1728 1 12 4 1575 35 11 LOCAL

878 815 387 BLUFFST 1650 1 12 0 1750 30 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

879 815 390 BLUFFST 1113 1 12 0 1125 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

880 815 813 E5THST 702 1 12 0 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

881 816 394 E4THST 297 1 12 2 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

882 817 419 STATEHWYC COLLECTOR 1107 1 10 0 1700 40 19 LOCAL

883 818 396 WESTMINSTERAVE 1210 1 10 0 1750 30 11

ROADWAY

884 818 986 SWESTMINSTERDR COLLECTOR 1387 1 12 0 1575 35 11 885 819 70 ACCESSRD COLLECTOR 463 1 10 0 1575 35 18 886 820 463 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 4607 1 10 0 1700 55 18 887 821 464 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 5575 1 10 0 1700 55 25 888 822 81 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 3205 1 10 0 1700 55 4 889 823 822 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 637 1 10 0 1700 45 4



CallawayPlant K91 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 890 824 825 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 8529 1 10 0 1700 55 36 891 825 826 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1992 1 10 0 1700 50 37 892 826 827 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1991 1 10 0 1700 50 37 893 827 828 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 3625 1 10 0 1700 50 37 894 828 829 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 4455 1 10 0 1700 50 37 895 829 830 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 4565 1 10 0 1700 50 37 896 830 900 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 3037 1 10 0 1700 50 37 897 831 83 MISSOURID COLLECTOR 962 1 10 1 1700 45 6 898 832 769 WILLIAMWOODSAVE COLLECTOR 587 1 10 0 1700 45 9 LOCAL

899 833 832 CARDINALDR 1217 1 12 0 1350 30 9

ROADWAY

LOCAL

900 834 833 CARDINALDR 1134 1 12 0 1350 30 9

ROADWAY

901 835 836 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 3549 1 10 0 1700 50 26 902 836 837 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 2947 1 10 0 1700 50 26 903 837 838 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 2933 1 10 0 1700 50 26 904 838 839 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 977 1 10 0 1700 50 26 905 839 840 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1102 1 10 0 1700 50 26 906 840 841 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 3434 1 10 0 1700 50 26 907 841 842 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1847 1 10 0 1700 50 25



CallawayPlant K92 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 908 842 468 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 4457 1 10 0 1700 50 25 909 843 728 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 928 1 10 0 1700 50 33 910 844 843 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1360 1 10 0 1700 50 33 911 845 844 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1442 1 10 0 1700 50 33 912 846 845 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 3081 1 10 0 1700 50 33 913 847 848 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 2223 1 10 0 1700 50 26 914 848 849 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 2319 1 10 0 1700 50 26 915 849 850 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 2137 1 10 0 1700 50 26 916 850 851 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 1308 1 10 0 1700 45 19 917 851 852 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 2194 1 10 0 1700 45 19 918 852 853 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 1286 1 10 0 1700 45 19 919 853 854 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 1507 1 10 0 1700 45 19 920 854 855 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 3114 1 10 0 1700 50 19 921 855 856 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 1593 1 10 0 1700 50 19 922 856 857 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 3670 1 10 0 1700 55 19 923 857 858 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 5509 1 10 0 1700 55 19 924 857 964 COROUTE414 COLLECTOR 2675 1 10 0 1575 35 18 925 858 444 STATEHWYNN COLLECTOR 3903 1 10 0 1700 50 19 926 859 408 TYNNYSONRD COLLECTOR 2654 1 10 0 1700 45 12 927 860 861 COTESANSDESSEINRD COLLECTOR 3428 1 10 0 1575 35 11



CallawayPlant K93 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 928 860 980 OLDJEFFERSONCITYRD COLLECTOR 2127 1 12 0 1575 35 11 929 861 405 COTESANSDESSEINRD COLLECTOR 257 1 10 0 1575 35 11 LOCAL

930 862 58 NHOSPITALDR 1165 1 10 0 1350 30 11

ROADWAY

LOCAL

931 863 815 E5THST 849 1 12 0 1125 25 11

ROADWAY

932 865 387 US54BUS COLLECTOR 1001 1 10 0 1750 35 11 933 865 776 US54BUS COLLECTOR 400 1 10 0 1750 35 11 934 865 981 E9THST COLLECTOR 922 1 10 0 1575 35 11 935 866 400 ESTEUNICERD COLLECTOR 2523 1 10 0 1575 35 10 936 867 832 CARDINALDR COLLECTOR 1187 1 10 0 1700 40 9 937 868 867 CARDINALDR COLLECTOR 743 1 10 0 1700 40 9 938 869 482 STATEHWYBB COLLECTOR 1574 1 10 0 1700 45 32 939 870 869 CORD480 COLLECTOR 2347 1 10 0 1700 45 32 940 871 872 MISSOURIAB COLLECTOR 2411 1 10 0 1700 50 14 941 872 873 MISSOURIAB COLLECTOR 2170 1 10 0 1700 50 14 942 873 874 MISSOURIAB COLLECTOR 2230 1 10 0 1700 50 14 943 874 875 MISSOURIAB COLLECTOR 1826 1 10 0 1575 35 5 944 875 135 MISSOURIAB COLLECTOR 2806 1 10 0 1700 50 5 945 876 877 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 3762 1 10 0 1700 50 15



CallawayPlant K94 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 946 876 924 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2897 1 10 0 1700 50 15 947 877 878 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1834 1 10 0 1700 50 16 948 878 879 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1613 1 10 0 1700 50 16 949 879 880 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 4152 1 10 0 1700 50 16 950 880 238 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 3992 1 10 0 1700 45 16 951 881 85 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 8126 1 10 4 1700 45 6 952 882 883 STATEHWYEE COLLECTOR 3338 1 9 0 1700 50 30 953 883 884 STATEHWYEE COLLECTOR 2406 1 9 0 1700 50 30 954 884 885 STATEHWYEE COLLECTOR 1780 1 9 0 1700 50 31 955 885 298 STATEHWYEE COLLECTOR 3350 1 9 0 1750 50 31 956 886 887 STATEHWYAD COLLECTOR 1592 1 10 0 1700 50 20 957 887 888 STATEHWYAD COLLECTOR 4504 1 10 0 1700 50 20 958 888 420 STATEHWYAD COLLECTOR 5668 1 10 0 1700 50 19 959 889 207 COUNTYRD106 COLLECTOR 6478 1 10 0 1700 50 10 960 890 770 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 398 1 12 4 1700 45 9 961 890 771 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 1021 1 10 0 1700 45 9 962 892 890 RICHLANDHEIGHTSRD COLLECTOR 1111 1 10 0 1700 40 9 963 893 892 RICHLANDHEIGHTSRD COLLECTOR 3164 1 10 0 1700 50 9 964 894 775 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 5567 1 10 0 1700 55 3 965 895 896 OLDUS40 COLLECTOR 7834 1 10 0 1700 50 3



CallawayPlant K95 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 966 896 897 OLDUS40 COLLECTOR 4393 1 10 0 1700 50 3 967 897 898 OLDUS40 COLLECTOR 1924 1 10 0 1700 50 3 968 898 28 OLDUS40 COLLECTOR 3463 1 10 0 1700 50 3 969 899 92 CORD159 COLLECTOR 2374 1 10 0 1700 50 4 970 900 901 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 5022 1 10 0 1700 50 37 971 901 902 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 3992 1 10 0 1700 50 37 972 902 903 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2597 1 10 0 1700 50 37 973 903 904 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 2550 1 10 0 1700 50 0 974 905 906 MISSOURIOO COLLECTOR 2719 1 10 0 1700 55 41 975 906 907 MISSOURIOO COLLECTOR 2000 1 10 0 1700 55 41 976 907 908 MISSOURIOO COLLECTOR 1456 1 10 0 1700 55 41 977 908 909 MISSOURIOO COLLECTOR 3138 1 10 0 1700 55 41 978 910 558 SR100 COLLECTOR 843 1 10 0 1700 45 29 979 911 554 SR100 COLLECTOR 858 1 10 0 1700 45 28 980 912 561 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1523 1 10 0 1700 50 29 981 913 912 MISSOURIZ COLLECTOR 1278 1 10 0 1700 50 36 982 914 67 SILVERDR COLLECTOR 820 1 10 0 1700 45 19 983 915 914 SILVERDR COLLECTOR 2458 1 10 0 1700 45 19 984 916 77 COROAD328 COLLECTOR 2154 1 10 0 1700 45 18 985 917 147 COUNTYRD134 COLLECTOR 1181 1 10 0 1575 35 14



CallawayPlant K96 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 986 918 106 COUNTYRD134 COLLECTOR 1192 1 10 0 1575 35 13 987 919 225 COUNTYRD113 COLLECTOR 777 1 10 0 1575 35 13 988 920 225 COUNTYRD113 COLLECTOR 764 1 10 0 1575 35 13 989 921 881 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 2399 1 10 4 1700 45 6 990 922 921 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 3085 1 10 4 1700 45 6 991 923 922 OLDU.S.40 COLLECTOR 7882 1 10 4 1700 45 6 992 924 923 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1141 1 10 0 1700 40 6 993 925 876 COUNTYRD280 COLLECTOR 1284 1 10 0 1700 35 15 994 926 923 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 1564 1 10 0 1700 40 6 995 927 924 MICAHRD COLLECTOR 4330 1 10 0 1575 35 6 996 928 118 COUNTYRD132 COLLECTOR 2529 1 10 0 1575 35 13 LOCAL

997 929 930 PREMIERRD 1004 1 10 4 1575 30 10

ROADWAY

998 930 207 CHANDLERRD COLLECTOR 2688 1 10 0 1575 35 10 999 931 479 COUNTYRD452 COLLECTOR 1097 1 10 0 1575 35 32 LOCAL

1000 932 431 W3RDST 1484 1 12 4 1350 30 34

ROADWAY

LOCAL

1001 933 431 BROADST 2167 1 12 4 1350 30 27

ROADWAY

1002 934 880 COUNTYRD278 COLLECTOR 2786 1 10 0 1750 35 16 1003 935 936 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 4577 1 10 0 1700 55 23



CallawayPlant K97 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 1004 936 276 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 3154 1 10 0 1750 55 23 1005 938 618 W3RDST COLLECTOR 1065 1 10 0 1575 35 35 1006 939 45 HAYMARTLN COLLECTOR 298 1 12 0 1575 30 9 1007 940 38 COUNTYRD209 COLLECTOR 2745 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1008 941 39 COUNTYRD210 COLLECTOR 1491 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1009 942 38 COUNTYRD110 COLLECTOR 2405 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1010 943 39 COUNTYRD114 COLLECTOR 3261 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1011 944 33 COUNTYRD220 COLLECTOR 264 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1012 945 33 COUNTYRD220 COLLECTOR 249 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1013 946 945 COUNTYRD220 COLLECTOR 415 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1014 947 944 COUNTYRD220 COLLECTOR 406 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1015 948 947 COUNTYRD220 COLLECTOR 3817 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1016 949 946 COUNTYRD220 COLLECTOR 2520 1 10 0 1575 35 3 1017 950 951 COUNTYRD318 COLLECTOR 2374 1 10 0 1575 35 18 1018 951 952 COUNTYRD318 COLLECTOR 356 1 10 0 1575 35 18 1019 952 74 COUNTYRD318 COLLECTOR 283 1 10 0 1575 35 18 1020 953 952 SILVERDR COLLECTOR 1348 1 10 0 1575 35 18 1021 954 955 COUNTYRD456 COLLECTOR 1312 1 10 0 1575 35 26 1022 955 956 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 2680 1 10 0 1700 50 26 1023 955 959 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 2251 1 10 0 1700 50 26



CallawayPlant K98 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 1024 956 957 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1899 1 10 0 1700 50 33 1025 957 958 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1552 1 10 0 1700 50 33 1026 958 846 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 1203 1 10 0 1700 50 33 1027 959 960 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 2329 1 10 0 1700 50 26 1028 960 835 STATERDPP COLLECTOR 3155 1 10 0 1700 50 26 1029 961 685 WILDWOODESTATESDR COLLECTOR 2068 1 10 0 1575 35 21 1030 962 859 COUNTYRD409 COLLECTOR 2009 1 10 0 1575 35 12 1031 963 66 US54BUS COLLECTOR 2695 1 10 0 1700 40 11 1032 964 445 COROUTE407 COLLECTOR 6552 1 10 0 1575 35 18 1033 964 857 COROUTE414 COLLECTOR 2675 1 10 0 1575 35 18 1034 965 420 COUNTYRD409 COLLECTOR 5322 1 10 0 1575 35 19 LOCAL

1035 966 394 US54BUS 669 1 10 4 1750 25 11

ROADWAY

US54BUSTRAFFICCIRCLE LOCAL

1036 966 968 126 1 12 4 1125 25 11

TOE2NDST ROADWAY

STATERDCTRAFFIC LOCAL

1037 967 966 117 1 12 4 1125 25 11

CIRCLETOUS54BUS ROADWAY

E2NDSTTRAFFICCIRCLE LOCAL

1038 968 389 118 1 12 4 1125 25 11

TOUS54BUS ROADWAY

1039 969 512 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 483 1 10 0 1125 25 39 1040 970 319 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 7691 1 10 0 1700 60 21



CallawayPlant K99 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 1041 970 687 MISSOURICC COLLECTOR 760 1 10 0 1700 60 21 MINOR

1042 971 970 COUNTYRD428 2657 1 12 0 1700 40 21

ARTERIAL

1043 972 685 MISSOURIO COLLECTOR 569 1 10 0 1700 55 21 1044 973 972 COUNTYRD448 COLLECTOR 7299 1 12 0 1700 40 21 1045 974 398 HICKMANAVE COLLECTOR 1355 1 12 0 1700 40 11 1046 975 5 I70 FREEWAY 711 2 12 10 2250 75 3 1047 976 800 I70 FREEWAY 643 2 12 10 2250 75 7 1048 977 766 W12THST COLLECTOR 1814 1 12 4 1575 35 11 1049 978 765 E9THST COLLECTOR 1553 1 10 0 1575 35 11 1050 978 977 NICHOLSST COLLECTOR 441 1 12 4 1575 35 11 1051 979 765 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 1803 1 10 0 1700 45 11 1052 979 974 W7THSTREET COLLECTOR 1575 1 12 4 1700 40 11 1053 979 985 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 789 1 10 0 1750 45 11 1054 980 55 COROUTE306 COLLECTOR 571 1 12 0 1575 35 11 1055 981 978 E9THST COLLECTOR 235 1 10 0 1575 35 11 1056 981 984 COURTST COLLECTOR 2236 1 12 4 1575 35 11 1057 982 385 VINEST COLLECTOR 1963 1 12 4 1575 35 12 1058 982 779 E10THST COLLECTOR 495 1 10 0 1575 35 11 1059 983 865 E9THST COLLECTOR 898 1 12 4 1575 35 11



CallawayPlant K100 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number 1060 983 982 VINEST COLLECTOR 388 1 12 4 1575 35 12 1061 984 814 COURTST COLLECTOR 404 1 12 4 1575 35 11 1062 985 396 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 296 1 10 0 1750 45 11 1063 985 979 WESTMINSTERAVE COLLECTOR 789 1 10 0 1700 45 11 1064 986 403 SWESTMINSTERDR COLLECTOR 1181 1 12 0 1575 35 11 1065 986 987 WCHESTNUTST COLLECTOR 2441 1 12 0 1575 35 11 1066 987 860 OLDJEFFERSONCITYRD COLLECTOR 362 1 12 0 1575 35 11 1067 8005 975 I70 FREEWAY 701 2 12 10 2250 75 3 MINOR

1068 8028 28 US54 934 2 12 10 1900 55 3

ARTERIAL

1069 8073 756 US54 FREEWAY 1778 2 12 10 2250 75 25 Exit MINOR

28 8028 US54 934 2 12 10 1900 55 3

Link ARTERIAL

Exit

133 8113 MISSOURIA COLLECTOR 4706 1 10 0 1700 50 1

Link

Exit

221 8221 MISSOURIF COLLECTOR 2581 1 10 0 1700 60 8

Link

Exit

300 8300 SR94 COLLECTOR 2768 1 10 0 1700 55 31

Link

Exit

440 8440 MISSOURIH COLLECTOR 1626 1 10 0 1700 50 18

Link

Exit 488 8488 MISSOURIC COLLECTOR 744 1 10 0 1700 55 38



CallawayPlant K101 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure Free

to ULNRC-05881 Up Down Lane Shoulder Saturation Flow Grid

Stream Stream Roadway Length No.of Width Width Flow Speed Map

Link# Node Node RoadwayName Type (ft) Lanes (ft) (ft) Rate (mph) Number Link

Exit

588 8588 SR100 COLLECTOR 1697 1 10 0 1700 30 39

Link

Exit

589 8589 SR89 COLLECTOR 2399 1 11 0 1700 50 40

Link

Exit

623 8623 MISSOURIN COLLECTOR 2188 1 10 0 1700 45 41

Link

Exit

682 8682 SR94 COLLECTOR 1621 1 10 0 1700 60 0

Link

Exit

725 8725 SR19 COLLECTOR 705 1 10 2 1700 50 24

Link

Exit

756 8073 US54 FREEWAY 1778 2 12 10 2250 75 25

Link

Exit

775 8775 MISSOURIHH COLLECTOR 3647 1 10 0 1700 55 2

Link

Exit

904 8585 MISSOURIJ COLLECTOR 1505 1 10 0 1700 50 0

Link

Exit

909 8909 MISSOURIOO COLLECTOR 4064 1 10 0 1700 55 41

Link

Exit

975 8005 I70 FREEWAY 701 2 12 10 2250 75 3

Link

Exit

976 8800 I70 FREEWAY 726 2 12 10 2250 75 7

Link



CallawayPlant K102 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 TableK2.NodesintheLinkNodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled

X Y Grid

Coordinate Coordinate Control Map

Node (ft) (ft) Type Number

1 1785578 1009355 Stop 32

28 1799545 1134965 Stop 3

30 1799399 1133529 Actuated 3

31 1799350 1132837 Actuated 3

32 1799321 1132001 Actuated 3

33 1799193 1128337 Stop 3

38 1799013 1122663 Stop 3

39 1798819 1118869 Stop 3

40 1798916 1114671 TCPActuated 9

45 1798937 1115370 Stop 9

55 1791132 1093239 Stop 11

56 1790825 1097851 TCPActuated 11

57 1791442 1097640 TCPActuated 11

58 1792896 1097260 Stop 11

64 1788667 1088071 Stop 19

65 1789317 1087953 Stop 19

67 1788208 1088082 Stop 19

70 1770294 1066666 Stop 18

74 1781623 1079816 Stop 18

79 1838175 1129846 Stop 4

80 1837954 1129168 Stop 4

83 1867884 1121167 Stop 6

84 1867921 1122064 Stop 6

85 1868005 1123954 Stop 6

96 1824575 1124599 Stop 4

106 1832254 1111063 Stop 13

118 1834495 1095636 Stop 13

134 1855707 1124232 Stop 5

135 1855523 1116601 Stop 5



CallawayPlant K103 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 X Y Grid

Coordinate Coordinate Control Map

Node (ft) (ft) Type Number

147 1854069 1100771 Stop 14

157 1862743 1077141 Stop 21

167 1867387 1053715 Stop 29

179 1844583 1047264 Stop 28

181 1835982 1044791 Stop 27

185 1820453 1034503 Stop 34

188 1814171 1031372 Stop 34

207 1806792 1106003 Stop 10

217 1779332 1103880 Stop 8

225 1823763 1095551 Stop 13

232 1804632 1095400 Stop 12

238 1904659 1113536 Stop 16

276 1908339 1080392 TCPActuated 23

296 1916743 1050108 Stop 30

298 1923765 1052900 TCPActuated 31

319 1840987 1075948 Stop 21

384 1801217 1103121 Stop 10

385 1799626 1102859 Stop 10

386 1798743 1102876 Actuated 9

387 1798656 1099507 Actuated 11

390 1798579 1096745 Stop 11

394 1797879 1097577 Actuated 11

395 1797602 1097598 Stop 11

396 1795888 1097628 Actuated 11

398 1794189 1097383 Stop 11

399 1798757 1106460 Actuated 9

400 1798843 1108887 Stop 9

403 1795850 1093854 Stop 11

405 1793232 1091207 Stop 11

408 1798406 1090409 Stop 11



CallawayPlant K104 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 X Y Grid

Coordinate Coordinate Control Map

Node (ft) (ft) Type Number

420 1806025 1068677 Stop 19

422 1811092 1059684 Stop 26

431 1819195 1035267 Stop 27

433 1779127 1096452 Stop 8

434 1778913 1088379 Stop 18

441 1789627 1087917 Stop 19

444 1786599 1084255 Stop 19

445 1783934 1081368 Stop 18

451 1774611 1070671 Stop 18

468 1780442 1051034 Stop 25

479 1781020 1032940 Stop 32

551 1848953 1036701 Stop 28

561 1884761 1036276 Stop 29

618 1849147 1035131 Yield 35

634 1877162 1007822 Stop 41

665 1883803 1006844 Stop 41

679 1780925 1015034 Stop 32

685 1846787 1076485 Stop 21

687 1840843 1067497 Stop 21

703 1843787 1065253 Stop 21

723 1931803 1086319 Stop 24

724 1931833 1082678 Stop 24

757 1762172 1051108 Stop 25

758 1760925 1051177 Stop 25

761 1774398 1071714 Stop 18

765 1795968 1100514 Stop 11

766 1795971 1101719 Stop 11

767 1796067 1104888 Stop 9

769 1793189 1107838 Stop 9

770 1792716 1108359 Stop 9



CallawayPlant K105 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 X Y Grid

Coordinate Coordinate Control Map

Node (ft) (ft) Type Number

776 1798682 1100908 Actuated 11

779 1799080 1100904 Stop 11

780 1801271 1100847 Stop 12

788 1849051 1035707 Stop 28

793 1761806 1051108 Stop 25

805 1796167 1106505 Stop 9

809 1798754 1104131 Actuated 9

813 1797897 1097877 Actuated 11

814 1797624 1097899 Stop 11

815 1798598 1097858 Stop 11

822 1838275 1130102 Stop 4

832 1793571 1107392 Stop 9

857 1786424 1074845 Stop 19

859 1801056 1090267 Stop 12

860 1793126 1094862 Stop 11

863 1799446 1097837 Yield 12

865 1798677 1100508 Stop 11

866 1801364 1108783 Stop 10

869 1782464 1029886 Stop 32

876 1889895 1114441 TCPActuated 15

880 1900764 1114409 TCPActuated 16

890 1792453 1108658 Stop 9

904 1922993 1023166 Stop N/A

955 1800042 1036046 Stop 26

964 1783749 1074819 Stop 18

966 1797851 1096909 Yield 11

967 1797914 1096810 Yield 11

968 1797755 1096827 Yield 11

970 1840891 1068256 Stop 21

972 1846218 1076440 Stop 21



CallawayPlant K106 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 X Y Grid

Coordinate Coordinate Control Map

Node (ft) (ft) Type Number

977 1797536 1100969 Stop 11

979 1795911 1098712 Stop 11

981 1797756 1100536 Stop 11

982 1799575 1100897 Stop 12

983 1799575 1100509 Stop 12

984 1797638 1098303 Stop 11

985 1795896 1097923 Stop 11

986 1795787 1095033 Stop 11

987 1793349 1095148 Stop 11

1 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983MissouriCentralStatePlaneZone





CallawayPlant K107 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 APPENDIXL

SubareaBoundaries

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881 L. SUBAREABOUNDARIES

SubareaC1 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareawithinatwo

mileradiusoftheCallawayPlant.

SubareaC2 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareaboundedby

Route UU on the north; Route AD and County Road 428 on the south;

CountyRoads111and419onthewest;andCountyRoad133ontheeast.

SubareaC3 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareaboundedby

CountyRoads132and134onthenorth;RouteOonthesouth;RouteDon

theeast;andCountyRoad133onthewest.

SubareaC4 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareaboundedby

Routes O and K on the north; the Missouri River on the south; the

Montgomery County line on the east; and County Roads 469 and 448 on

thewest.

SubareaC5 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareaboundedby

CountyRoads469and448ontheeast;CountyRoad459,Highway94and

Auxvasse Creek on the west; the Missouri River on the south, and two

milesfromtheplantonthenorth.

SubareaC6 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareaboundedby

Route AD and County Road 428 on the north; Highway 94 on the south;

CountyRoad459ontheeast;andRoutesC,VV,andCountyRoad447on

thewest.

SubareaC7 County:Callaway

Defined as the area within the following boundary:  The area south of

HamsPrairieboundedonthenorthbyRouteCfromHamsPrairieextended

directlywesttotheMiddleRiver;byRoutesC,VVandCountyRoad447on

the east; the Middle River on the west; and the Missouri River on the

south.















CallawayPlant L1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881

 

SubareaC8 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareasoutheastof

Fulton bounded by Route JJ, Route UU, County Roads 111 and 419, and

RouteADontheeast,RouteCfromHamsPrairieextendeddirectlywestto

theMiddleRiveronthesouth;andRouteNN,FultoncitylimitsandRouteZ

onthewestandnorth.ThisdoesnotincludetheCityofFulton.

SubareaC9 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheCityofFulton

SubareaC10 County:Callaway

Defined as the area within the following boundary: The area bounded by

Route Z and I70 on the north, County roads 132 and 134 on the south,

RouteDontheeast;andRouteJJonthewest.

SubareaC11 County:Callaway

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareaboundedbyI70on

thenorth;RouteKonthesouth,theMontgomeryCountylineontheeast;and

RouteDonthewest.

SubareaG1 County:Gasconade

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Theareasouthofthe

MissouriRiver,eastoftheOsageCountyline,andnorthwestofShawneeCreek,

includingMorrison

SubareaM1 County:Montgomery

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareasouthofI70,North

ofRouteK,eastoftheCallawayCountyline,andwestofCountyRoads278

(GraveyardHillRoad)and283(MillPondRoad)andRoutesHHandK

SubareaM2 County:Montgomery

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareasouthofRouteK

totheMissouriRiverbetweentheCallawayCountylineandRouteP,CountyRoad

295(WardensBranchRoad)andRouteEE,includingRhineland.

SubareaO1 County:Osage

Definedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareaeastofSt.

Aubert,westofRouteN,andwithinfivemilesoftheMissouriRiver.



NOTE:DescriptionstakenfromtheStateofMissouriEmergencyManagementAgencyNuclearAccidentPlan,January

2010





CallawayPlant L2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



APPENDIXM

EvacuationSensitivityStudies



Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES

This appendix presents the results of a series of sensitivity analyses. These analyses are

designedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.

M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes

A sensitivity study was performed to determine whether changes in the estimated trip

generation time have an effect on the ETE for the entire EPZ. Specifically, if the tail of the

mobilization distribution were truncated (i.e., if those who responded most slowly to the

AdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETE

beaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,good

weatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.



TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy

Trip EvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ

Generation

Period 90thPercentile 100thPercentile

2Hours30Minutes 1:50 2:45

3Hours30Minutes 1:50 3:35

4Hours(Base) 2:05 4:10



AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionexistswithintheEPZforabout2hours.TheETE

for the 100th percentile closely mirror the values for the time the last evacuation trip is

generated.Incontrast,the90thpercentileETEisveryinsensitivetotruncatingthetailofthe

mobilization distribution. Therefore, the results confirm the importance of accurately

estimatingthetripgeneration(mobilization)times.Theresultsalsoindicatethatprogramsto

educatethepublicandencouragethemtowardfasterresponsesforaradiologicalemergency,

translates into shorter ETE at the 100th Percentile.  The results also justify the guidance to

employthe[stable]90thpercentileETEforprotectiveactionrecommendation(PAR)decision making.

 



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M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleIntheShadowRegionWhoRelocate

AsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentage

ofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario

6, Region 3; a winter, midweek, midday, good weather evacuation for the entire EPZ. The

movement of people in the Shadow Region has the potential to impede vehicles evacuating

fromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSection7.1foradditionalinformationon

populationwithintheshadowregion.

TableM2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.Theresults

showthattheETEisinsensitivetoshadowevacuation.Triplingtheshadowpercentagedoesnot

affecttheETEateitherPercentile.Reducingtheshadowevacuationpercentagetotenpercent,

reflectingthetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixF,ortozeropercenthasnoeffect

onETE.



TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy

Evacuating EvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ

PercentShadow

Shadow

Evacuation 90thPercentile 100thPercentile

Vehicles

0 0 2:05 4:10

10 401 2:05 4:10

20(Base) 804 2:05 4:10

60 2,408 2:05 4:10



 



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M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation

A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE of changes in the resident

population within the EPZ. As population in the EPZ changes over time, the time required to

evacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.SincetheETEisrelatedtothe

demandtocapacityratiopresentwithintheEPZ,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemand

side of the equation to change. The sensitivity study was conducted using the following

planningassumptions:

1. The change in population within the EPZ was treated parametrically. The percent

population change was varied between +/-30%. Changes in population were applied to

permanent residents only (as per federal guidance), in both the EPZ area and the

ShadowRegion.

2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighway

capacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.

3. Thestudywasperformedforthe2MileRegion(R01),the5MileRegion(R02)andthe

entireEPZ(R03).

4. The good weather scenario which yielded the highest ETE values was selected as the

casetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario1).

TableM3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart

50,andNUREG/CR7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysisto

theNRCwhenapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreaseby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.Notethat

theETEvaluesforthe90thand100thpercentilesdonotchangesignificantlyovertherangeof

populationchangesconsidered.Theexistinghighwaynetworkhassufficientreservecapacity

toaccommodateareasonablepopulationincrease.Reducingpopulationhasnoeffectbecause

the ETE values reflect the trip generation distribution, which is essentially independent of

population.

 



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Enclosure to ULNRC-05881





TableM3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange

PopulationChange PopulationChange EPZ Base Base

10% 20% 30% 10% 20% 30%

Population

20,173 22,190 24,208 26,225 20,173 18,156 16,138 14,121

ETEfor90thPercentile PopulationChange PopulationChange Region Base Base

10% 20% 30% 10% 20% 30%

2Mile 1:15 1:15 1:15 1:15 1:15 1:10 1:10 1:10 5Mile 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 FullEPZ 2:00 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 th ETEfor100 Percentile PopulationChange PopulationChange Region Base Base

10% 20% 30% 10% 20% 30%

2Mile 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 5Mile 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 FullEPZ 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10



 



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M.4 NewUnitsandProposedRoadwaysSensitivityAnalysis

A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE from the potential

constructionoftwolargenewunits,Units2and3attheCallawayPlantsite,andtwoproposed

roadways (to assist in traffic generated by an increase of construction workers at the new

units).Atotalofsixcasesareconsidered.Threesetsofroadwayconfigurationsareconsidered:

1. Anobuildscenariousingonlytheexistinginfrastructure,

2. AproposedroadwayconnectingtheplanttoUS54tothewest,and

3. Boththeproposedroadwaytothewestandanadditionalroadwayconnectingtheplant

toI70,tothenorth.

Theproposedroadwaysareconsideredasonelanelimitedaccesshighwayswithanestimated

freeflowspeedof60mph.TheirapproximatelocationsareshowninFigureM1:





FigureM1.ProposedRoadways1and2.







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Foreachsetofroadwayscenarios,twocasesareconsidered:

1. 2,469 vehicles are added to the network representing vehicles used by workers

constructingtheproposedUnit2.

2. 2,469 vehicles are added to the network, representing vehicles used by workers

constructing the proposed Unit 3, and an additional 737 vehicles representing the

vehiclesusedbyplantworkersattheoperationalUnit2.

All sensitivity studies are assumed to occur in in the year 2023, as described in Chapter 3,

Section3.6.Theyarealsoassumedtooccurduringgoodweathersotheycanbecomparedto

theNoBuildScenario(Scenario13inChapter7).Thesamenumberofconstructionworker

vehicles was used for the proposed Units 2 and 3, as they are assumed to be constructed in

series.

TableM4summarizestheETEforthe2Mile,5MileandFullEPZRegionsforthebasecaseas

wellasthetwosensitivitycases.Ineachcase,Unit3constructionincreasedthe90thpercentile

2mile Region ETE by 20 minutes and the 5Mile Region by 5 minutes due to the increased

number of vehicles from the plant workers at the operational Unit 2. Because the existing

roadwaynetworkhassufficientreservecapacity,theproposedroadwayshavelittleeffecton

100thpercentileETE.



TableM4.ConstructionScenariosSensitivityAnalysis

ConstructionofUnit3

ConstructionofUnit2 &Unit2Operational

90th 100th 90th 100th

Roadway Percentile Percentile Percentile Percentile

Scenario Region ETE ETE ETE ETE

2MileRegion 1:20 4:00 1:40 4:00

NoBuild 5MileRegion 1:40 4:05 1:50 4:05

FullEPZ 2:00 4:10 2:05 4:10

2MileRegion 1:20 4:00 1:40 4:00

ProposedRoad1 5MileRegion 1:30 4:05 1:50 4:05

FullEPZ 2:00 4:10 2:05 4:10

2MileRegion 1:20 4:00 1:40 4:00

ProposedRoad1

5MileRegion 1:30 4:05 1:50 4:05

andRoad2

FullEPZ 2:00 4:10 2:05 4:10





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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Enclosure to ULNRC-05881



APPENDIXN

ETECriteriaChecklist



 Enclosure N. ETECRITERIACHECKLIST to ULNRC-05881 TableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist

NRCReviewCriteria CriterionAddressed Comments

inETEAnalysis

1.0Introduction  

a. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingarea Yes Section1

shouldbedescribed.

b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesof Yes Figure11

thesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographical

features,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenters

withintheEPZ.

c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbe Yes Table13

providedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedin

Table11,ETEComparison,ofNUREG/CR7002.

1.1Approach

a. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtained Yes Section1.3

duringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbe

provided.

b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities, Yes Section2.1

largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified. Section3

c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrol Yes Section1.3,Section2.2,Section9,

plansintheanalysis. AppendixG

d. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbe Yes Section1.3,Table13,AppendixB,

identifiedbynameandversion. AppendixC



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

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e. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbe Yes Section3-avoiddoublecounting

described. Section5,AppendixF-4.5%sampling

errorat95%confidenceintervalfor

telephonesurvey

1.2Assumptions

a. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthat Yes Section2.3-Assumption1

theevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearly Section5.1

protectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.

b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable12,General Yes Sections2.2,2.3

Assumptions,ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbeprovidedand

includethebasistosupporttheiruse.

1.3ScenarioDevelopment

a. ThetenscenariosinTable13,EvacuationScenarios,should Yes Tables21,62

bedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbe

providedforuseofotherscenarios.

1.3.1StagedEvacuation

a. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedin Yes Sections5.4.2,7.2

developmentofastagedevacuation.

1.4EvacuationPlanningAreas

a. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas Yes Figure61

(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.

b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsidered Yes Table61,Table75

foreachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineach

sector.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

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c. AtablesimilartoTable14,EvacuationAreasforaStaged Yes Table75

EvacuationKeyhole,ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbe

providedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,

and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyhole

evacuations.

2.0DemandEstimation

a. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefour Yes Permanentresidents,employees,

populationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsofthe transients-Section3,AppendixE

EPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools. Specialfacilities,schools-Section8,

AppendixE

2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation

a. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulation Yes Section3.1

values,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.

b. Populationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryfor Yes 2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.No

growthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearofthe growthofpopulationnecessary.

ETE.

c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure21, Yes Figure32

PopulationbySector,ofNUREG/CR7002,showingthe

populationdistributionforpermanentresidents.

2.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehicles

a. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2or Yes 1.78personspervehicle-Table13

justificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.

b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted. Yes AppendixE-TableE3

  



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

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2.1.2TransientPopulation

a. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshould Yes Sections3.3,3.4,AppendixE

beincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthese

facilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedto

developattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.

b. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused, Yes Tables34,35andAppendixEitemizethe

itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario. transientpopulationandemployee

estimates.Theseestimatesaremultiplied

bythescenariospecificpercentages

providedinTable63toestimatetransient

populationbyscenario.

c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeat Yes Sections3.3,3.4

facilitiesshouldbeestimated.

d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided. Yes Sections3.3,3.4,Section6

Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhy

valuesvaryshouldbeprovided.

e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure21of Yes Figure36-transients

NUREG/CR7002,showingthepopulationdistributionfor Figure38-employees

thetransientpopulation.

2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidents

a. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransit Yes Section8.1,Table81

dependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.

b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroup Yes Section8.1,Tables85,810

shouldbequantified.

c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependent Yes Sections8.1,8.4

residentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

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to ULNRC-05881 inETEAnalysis

d. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeople Yes Section8.5

withdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneeds

whomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecial

facilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/county

registrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,but

shouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.

e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportation Yes Section2.3-Assumption10

resources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedor Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3

justificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.

f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedand Yes Table81-transitdependents

informationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistration Section8.4-specialneeds

programswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.

g. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances, Yes Section8.4-page86

orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbe Table85,Section8.3

providedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbe

detailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnot

occurred.

2.3SpecialFacilityResidents

a. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility, Yes AppendixE,TablesE2,E6-listfacilities,

location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided. type,location,andpopulation

Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecial 

facilitypopulation.

b. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydata Yes Sections8.2,8.3

wasobtained.

c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbedboundindividuals Yes Section3.5

shouldbeprovided.



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d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneeded Yes Section8.3

tosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided. Table84

e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g., Yes Section8.4,8.6,8.7

medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,and

othercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhen

appropriate.

2.4Schools

a. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,student Yes Table82

population,andtransportationresourcesrequiredto Section8.2

supporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceof

thisinformationshouldbeprovided.

b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschools Yes Table82

shouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.

c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheir Yes Section8.2

personalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasis

forthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.

d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary. Yes Therearesufficientresourcestoevacuate

schoolsinasinglewave.However,Section

8.3andFigure81discussthepotentialfor

amultiplewaveevacuation













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to ULNRC-05881 inETEAnalysis

2.5.1SpecialEvents

a. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedand Yes Section3.8

includesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,

andseasonoftheevent.

b. Thespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransient Yes Section3.8

populationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.

c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheevent Yes Section3.8

shouldbeestimated.

2.5.2ShadowEvacuation

a. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedfor Yes Section2.2-Assumption5

areasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15miles Figure21

fromtheNPP.

Section3.2

b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to Yes Section3.2

15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector. Figure34

Table33

c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadway Yes Section5-Table59

networkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtime

generatedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.

  













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2.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffic

a. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficis Yes Section3.7

basedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybe Table36

reducedfornighttimescenarios.

Section6

Table63

b. Passthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringthe Yes Section2.3-Assumption5

EPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification. Section3.7

2.6SummaryofDemandEstimation

a. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotal Yes 

populationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisfor Tables38,39

permanentresidents,transients,transitdependent

residents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,and

passthroughdemandusedineachscenario.

3.0RoadwayCapacity

a. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbe Yes Section4

discussed.

3.1RoadwayCharacteristics

a. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeen Yes Section1.3

conducted.

b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthe Yes Section1.3

survey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedinthe

analysis.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

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c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,Roadway Yes AppendixK,TableK1

Characteristics,ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbeprovided.

d. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshould Yes Section4

beprovided.

e. Alegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnode Yes AppendixK,FiguresK1throughK42

numbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbe presenttheentirelinknodeanalysis

providedandshouldbesimilartoFigure31,Roadway networkatascalesuitabletoidentifyall

NetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,ofNUREG/CR linksandnodes

7002.

3.2CapacityAnalysis

a. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthe Yes Section4

transportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailand

identifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthe

modeling.

b. Thecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformation Yes Section1.3,Section4

shouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.

3.3IntersectionControl

a. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthe Yes AppendixK,TableK2

totalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,

signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.

b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersections Yes TableJ1

withintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signal

cyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.

c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeis Yes Section4.1,AppendixC.

usedinthecalculations.

  



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 Enclosure NRCReviewCriteria CriterionAddressed Comments

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3.4AdverseWeather

a. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandthe Yes Table21,Section2.3-Assumption9

effectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbe Mobilizationtime-Table22,Section5.3

considered. (page510)

b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable Yes Table22-basedonHCM2010.The

31,WeatherCapacityFactors,ofNUREG/CR7002should factorsprovidedinTable31of

beusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues. NUREG/CR7002arefromHCM2000.

c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalon Yes Section5.3-page510

streetsanddriveways,whenapplicable. AppendixF-SectionF.3.3

4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes

4.1TripGenerationTime

a. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbe Yes Section5

identified.

b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey, Yes AppendixF

areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatistical

relevanceshouldbeprovided.

c. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbe Yes AppendixF

summarized.

d. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshould Yes Section5,AppendixF

bedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.

  





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4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation

a. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheir Yes Section5discussestripgenerationfor

homesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Trip householdswithandwithoutreturning

generationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentage commuters.Table63presentsthe

ofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating. percentageofhouseholdswithreturning

commutersandthepercentageof

householdseitherwithoutreturning

commutersorwithnocommuters.

AppendixFpresentsthepercent

householdswhowillawaitthereturnof

commuters.

b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodused Yes Section5.4.3

tonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesany

difficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchas

onlakesorincampgrounds.

c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentially Yes Section5,Figure51

returningtohotelspriortoevacuating.

d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecial Yes Section3.7

eventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbe

expectedshouldbeconsidered.

e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshould Yes Section5,Table59

beintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetwork

withthegeneralpublic.

  







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4.1.2TransitDependentResidents

a. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedin Yes Section8.3-page87.Preestablishedbus

theETEanalysis.Ifnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththe routesdonotexist.Basicbusrouteswere

ETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsible developedfortheETEanalysis-seeFigure

authorities. 82,Table810.

b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuating Yes Section8.4

ambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.

c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andother Yes Section8.4

resourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshould

beprovided.

d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,brief Yes Section8.4,Figure81

drivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.

e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransit Yes Section8.3

dependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickup

point,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothe

pickuppoint.

f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoload Yes Section8.3

passengersshouldbediscussed.

g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded. Yes Figure82

h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersons Yes Section8.4

includesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecial

vehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loading

time,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.



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i. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisof Yes Sections8.3,8.4

returntrips,ifnecessary. Figure81

Tables89through811

4.1.3SpecialFacilities

a. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimes Yes Section84

shouldbeprovided.

b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundand Yes Sections8.4

outboundspeeds. 

c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbedboundsindividuals Yes Table84

shouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingthese

residentsshouldbediscussed.

d. Timeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovided Yes Section8.4

e. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhetherthe Yes Section8.4,Table85

evacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditional 

tripsshouldbeneeded.

f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehicles Yes Section8.4

shouldbeprovided.

g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacility Yes Section8.4

residentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenter

priortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.

h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythe Yes Section8.4

timeelementsforthereturntrips.

  



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4.1.4Schools

a. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtime Yes Section8.4

shouldbeprovided.

b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundand Yes SchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTable

outboundspeeds. 86.

SchoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables

87(goodweather),88(rain),and89

(snoworiceifapplicable).Outbound

speedsaredefinedastheminimumofthe

evacuationroutespeedandtheState

schoolbusspeedlimit.

InboundspeedsarelimitedtotheState

schoolbusspeedlimit.

c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided. Yes Tables87through89,Discussionin

Section8.4

d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhetherthe Yes Section8.4-page88

evacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditional 

tripsareneeded.

e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbuses Yes Returntripsarenotneeded

shouldbeprovided.

f. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussion Yes Table83.Studentsareevacuatedto

shouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedto receivingschoolswheretheywillbepicked

passthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuated upbyparentsorguardians.

totheirfinaldestination.



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g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythe Yes Returntripsarenotneeded.Tables87

timeelementsforthereturntrips. and89providetimeneededtoarriveat

carecenter,whichcouldbeusedto

computeasecondwaveevacuationif

necessary

4.2ETEModeling

a. Generalinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovided Yes DYNEVII(Ver.4.0.0.0).Section1.3,Table

anddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies. 13,AppendixB,AppendixC.

b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETE No Notapplicableasatrafficsimulation

calculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidate modelwasused.

theanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshould

havebeenmet,asappropriate.

4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInput

a. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentative Yes AppendicesBandCdescribethe

setofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided. simulationmodelassumptionsand

algorithms

TableJ2

b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekey Yes AppendixA

performancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis. TablesC1,C2

  



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4.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutput

a. Adiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodel Yes AppendixB

usedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETE

shouldbeprovided.

b. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovided Yes 1. TableJ5.

tosupportreview: 2. TableJ3.

1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode. 3. TableJ1.

2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime. 4. TableJ3.

3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththe 5. FiguresJ1throughJ14(oneplot

highesttrafficvolume. foreachscenarioconsidered).

4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork. 6. TableJ4.Networkwideaverage

5. Aplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveand speedalsoprovidedinTableJ3.

evacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentage

ofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.

6. Averagespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethat

exitstheEPZ.

c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarious Yes Figures73through76

times(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuation

scenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincluding

levelofservice(LOS)EandLOSFconditions,ifthey

occur.

4.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublic

a. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100% Yes Tables71,72

ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulation



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b. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeall Yes Section5.4-truncatingsurveydatato

membersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncated eliminatestatisticaloutliers

datashouldbeexplained. Table72-100thpercentileETEforgeneral

public

c. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEs Yes Tables73,74

similartoTable43,ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,

ofNUREG/CR7002.

d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationof Yes Section8.4

specialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations. Tables87through89

Tables811through813

5.0OtherConsiderations

5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlans

a. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthe Yes Section9,AppendixG

trafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.

b. Adiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetraffic Yes AppendixG

controlplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.

5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTime

a. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuation Yes AppendixM

timeshouldbeprovided.

b. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationof Yes ResultsoftheETEstudywereformally

enhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided. presentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinal

projectmeeting.Recommended

enhancementswerediscussed.

5.3StateandLocalReview



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a. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteraction Yes Table11

withtheseagenciesshouldbediscussed.

b. Informationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissues Yes Noissuesweredeterminedafterreview

thatmayaffecttheETE. withtheoffsiteagencies

5.4ReviewsandUpdates

a. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredto Yes AppendixM,SectionM.3

beperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.

5.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCenter

a. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncenters Yes Figure101

shouldbeprovided.

b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimate Yes Section8.3discussesamultiwave

returntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided. evacuationprocedure.Figure81

c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengers Yes Section2.3-Assumption7h

areleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparate Section10

busestothecongregatecarecenter.





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