ML032510816
| ML032510816 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510816 (15) | |
Text
Indian Point Energy Center ES-1 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
This brief summary should be viewed as a preamble of the report. The reader is encouraged to review the entire report.
This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to update the existing Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) located in Buchanan, New York. Evacuation time estimates provide State and local governments with site-specific information helpful for Protective Action decision-making.
In the performance of this effort, all available prior documentation relevant to Evacuation Time Estimates was reviewed. Other guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Government agencies. Most important of these are:
Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plans, NUREG 0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, November 1980.
Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, November 1980.
State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-4831, March 1992.
Overview of Project Activities This project began on May 1, 2002 and extended over a period of one year. The major activities performed are briefly described in chronological sequence:
Attended kick-off meetings with Entergy Nuclear Northeast (ENN) personnel, then with emergency management personnel of the four counties within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of IPEC.
Reviewed prior ETE reports prepared for IPEC and accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the years 2000 and 1990. Studied large-scale highway maps of the area in the vicinity of IPEC, then conducted a detailed field survey of the highway network.
Synthesized this information to create an analysis network representing the highway system topology and capacities within the EPZ, extending to the four bounding Interstate Highways: (1) I-87 on the west; (2) I-87/287 on the south; (3) I-684 on the east; and (4) I-84 on the north.
Designed and sponsored a telephone survey of residents within the EPZ to gather focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database. The survey instrument was reviewed and modified by State and county personnel prior to the survey.
Conducted additional mail and telephone surveys and accessed county and State data files to quantify estimates of employment within the EPZ, identifying that portion who lived outside the EPZ. Other surveys obtained information on transit-dependent and transient
Indian Point Energy Center ES-2 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 populations, and of available transit resources. In addition, the populations of special facilities (i.e., schools, health-related) were ascertained.
The traffic demand and trip-generation rate of evacuating vehicles were estimated from the gathered data. The trip generation rate reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e.,
the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) that was computed using the results of the telephone survey of EPZ residents.
Following federal guidelines, the EPZ is subdivided into 51 Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs). These are the same ERPAs used in the prior ETE studies.
These ERPAs are then grouped to form circular areas or keyhole configurations (circles plus radial sectors) that define a total of 35 Evacuation Regions.
The time-varying circumstances are represented as Evacuation Scenarios, each described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter, Autumn, Spring); (2) Day of Week (Midweek, Weekend); (3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening); and (4) Weather (Good, Rain, Snow). Two special scenarios involving activities at West Point were considered: Football Games and Commencement. A total of 14 scenarios are considered.
The Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is:
A rapidly escalating accident at IPEC that quickly assumes the status of General Emergency such that the Advisory to Evacuate is virtually coincident with the siren alert.
While an unlikely accident scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE, measured as the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the last vehicle exits the impacted Region, that represent upper bound estimates.
This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events including the prospect of a terrorist attack.
If the emergency occurs while schools are in session, the ETE study assumes that the children will be evacuated by bus directly to specified school reception centers located outside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors may pick up their children at school prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that purpose. The ETE for school children are calculated separately.
Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either ride-share with relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the county evacuation plans. Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated with public transit, as needed: bus, van, or ambulance, as required. Separate ETE are calculated for the transit-dependent evacuees and for those evacuated from special facilities.
Computation of ETE A total of 490 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETE quantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 35 Evacuation Regions to completely evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14 Evacuation Scenarios (35 x 14 = 490). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent evacuees, including school children for applicable scenarios.
Indian Point Energy Center ES-3 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 Except for Region R3, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a relatively small portion of the people within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate. That is, the Advisory to Evacuate applies only to those people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100 percent of the people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this Advisory. The people occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take shelter.
The computation of ETE assumes that a portion of the population within the EPZ but outside the impacted region, will elect to voluntarily evacuate. These voluntary evacuees could impede those others who are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by voluntary evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.
The area outside the EPZ but within the bounding interstate highways identified earlier is identified as the Shadow Region. This study assumes that a portion of the population occupying the shadow region will also elect to travel away from IPEC over the same time frame as those evacuating from within the impacted region. This shadow evacuation could also impede the movement of evacuees from within the impacted region. This potential impedance of evacuees is also considered in the computations of ETE.
The computational procedure is outlined as follows:
A link-node representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a unidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or merge point. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations and on established procedures.
The evacuation trips are generated at locations called zonal centroids located within the EPZ and within the Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on population density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area.
The computer models compute the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are compliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of IPEC), then simulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation process estimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region.
The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 50 percent, 90 percent, 95 percent and 100 percent, respectively, of the population within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region. These statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats.
Traffic Management This study includes the development of a comprehensive traffic management plan designed to expedite the evacuation of people from within an impacted region. This plan is also designed to control access into the EPZ after returning commuters have rejoined their families.
The plan takes the form of detailed schematics specifying: (1) the directions of evacuation travel to be facilitated and other traffic movements to be discouraged; (2) the equipment needed (cones,
Indian Point Energy Center ES-4 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 barricades) and their deployment; (3) the locations of these Traffic Control Points (TCP); (4) the priority assigned to each traffic control point indicating its relative importance and how soon it should be manned relative to others; and (5) the number of traffic control personnel required.
Over the coming months this plan will be reviewed with State and local law enforcement personnel. The Traffic Management Plan will incorporate revisions made as a result of this review.
Selected Results A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of Figures and Tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below.
Figure 3-1 displays a map of the IPEC site showing the layout of the 51 Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs) that comprise, in aggregate, the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).
Table 3-2 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each ERPA based on the 2000 Census data. Extrapolation to the year 2003 reflects population growth rates in each county derived from census data.
Table 6-1 defines each of the 35 Evacuation Regions in terms of their respective groups of ERPAs. The tabulation also identifies the azimuths of the underlying sectors associated with the keyhole configurations of Regions R4 through R35.
Table 6-2 lists the 14 Evacuation Scenarios.
Table 7-1D is a compilation of Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). These data are the times needed to clear the indicated regions of 100 percent of the population occupying these regions. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time, and of estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the shadow region.
Tables 8-9, 8-10 and 8-11 present ETE for school evacuation, transit-dependent evacuees and evacuees from special facilities, respectively. All these evacuees will be transported by bus, van or ambulance, as appropriate.
We wish to express our appreciation to all the directors and staff members of the Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester County Emergency Management Offices, the various county planning offices, New York State Emergency Management Office (SEMO), and local and state law enforcement agencies, who provided valued guidance and contributed information contained in this report.
Indian Point Energy Center ES-5 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 Figure 3-1. Indian Point Energy Center EPZ ERPAs
Indian Point Energy Center ES-6 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 Table 3-2. EPZ Permanent Resident Population Growth Population Population ERPA 2000 2003 ERPA 2000 2003 1
2,171 2,206 27 2,200 2,270 2
22,459 22,826 28 52 54 3
1,273 1,294 29 1,143 1,170 4
3,534 3,592 30 12,968 13,271 5
957 973 31 31,314 33,267 6
7,589 7,713 32 4,973 5,089 7
185 188 33 10,616 10,864 8
11,156 11,338 34 7,428 7,602 9
4,486 4,559 35 23,681 24,235 10 8,021 8,152 36 2,601 2,662 11 18,086 18,382 37 23,220 23,763 12 3,102 3,153 38 60 61 13 7,124 7,240 39 19 20 14 2,688 2,732 40 561 579 15 1,284 1,305 41 174 178 16 532 553 42 17 1,927 2,005 43 18 3,533 3,675 44 19 6,851 7,127 45 20 4,110 4,275 46 21 4,785 4,863 47 332 337 22 29,454 29,936 48 3,483 3,540 23 2,523 2,625 49 2,820 2,866 24 7,134 7,360 50 471 479 25 932 962 51 8,277 8,412 26 5,353 5,523 TOTAL 297,642 305,276
Indian Point Energy Center ES-7 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1
Indian Point Energy Center ES-8 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation Regions REGION ERPAs IN ORANGE COUNTY ERPAs IN PUTNAM COUNTY ERPAs IN ROCKLAND COUNTY ERPAs IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY DESCRIPTION OF REGION ERPAs IN REGION R1 39 NONE 29, 38, 39 1-4, 7, 44 Entire 2 mile ring 1-4, 7, 29, 38, 39, 44 R2 26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 Entire 5 mile ring 1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R3 24-28, 39, 40 16-20, 23, 45, 46 29-41 1-15, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51 Full EPZ 1-51 2 Mile Ring and Sector to 5 Miles R4 26, 39, 45 16, 18, 45 29, 38, 39 1-4, 7, 8, 44 N
1-4, 7, 8, 16, 18, 26, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R5 39, 45 16, 18, 45 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 1-4, 7-9, 44, 45 NNE 1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R6 39 16, 18 29, 38, 39, 44 1-4, 7-9, 44, 49 NE 1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R7 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-4, 7-9, 44, 49 ENE 1-4, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R8 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-5, 7-9, 44, 48, 49 E
1-5, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 48, 49 R9 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-7, 9, 44, 47-49 ESE 1-7, 9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 47-49 R10 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-7, 43, 44, 47-49 SE 1-7, 29, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49 R11 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-7, 43, 44, 47-49 SSE 1-7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49 R12 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-4, 6, 7, 43, 44, 47, 48 S
1-4, 6, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47, 48 R13 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-4, 7, 43, 44 SSW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 R14 39, 40 NONE 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44 1-4, 7, 43, 44 SW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44 R15 39, 40 NONE 29-31, 38-40, 44 1-4, 7, 44 WSW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 44 R16 39, 40 NONE 29, 30, 38-40, 44 1-4, 7, 44 W
1-4, 7, 29, 30, 38-40, 44 R17 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 45 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 44, 45 WNW 1-4, 7, 24, 26, 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45 R18 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 16, 45 29, 38-40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 44, 45 NW 1-4, 7, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38-40, 44, 45 R19 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 16, 45 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 8, 44, 45 NNW 1-4, 7, 8, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 R1 39 NONE 29, 38, 39 1-4, 7, 44 Entire 2 mile ring 1-4, 7, 29, 38, 39, 44 R2 26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 Entire 5 mile ring 1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R3 24-28, 39, 40 16-20, 23, 45, 46 29-41 1-15, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51 Full EPZ 1-51 2 Mile Ring and Sector to 5 Miles R4 26, 39, 45 16, 18, 45 29, 38, 39 1-4, 7, 8, 44 N
1-4, 7, 8, 16, 18, 26, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R5 39, 45 16, 18, 45 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 1-4, 7-9, 44, 45 NNE 1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R6 39 16, 18 29, 38, 39, 44 1-4, 7-9, 44, 49 NE 1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R7 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-4, 7-9, 44, 49 ENE 1-4, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49
Indian Point Energy Center ES-9 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimates Rev. 1 Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation Regions REGION ERPAs IN ORANGE COUNTY ERPAs IN PUTNAM COUNTY ERPAs IN ROCKLAND COUNTY ERPAs IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY DESCRIPTION OF REGION ERPAs IN REGION R8 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-5, 7-9, 44, 48, 49 E
1-5, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 48, 49 R9 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-7, 9, 44, 47-49 ESE 1-7, 9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 47-49 R10 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-7, 43, 44, 47-49 SE 1-7, 29, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49 R11 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-7, 43, 44, 47-49 SSE 1-7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49 R12 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-4, 6, 7, 43, 44, 47, 48 S
1-4, 6, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47, 48 R13 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-4, 7, 43, 44 SSW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 R14 39, 40 NONE 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44 1-4, 7, 43, 44 SW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44 R15 39, 40 NONE 29-31, 38-40, 44 1-4, 7, 44 WSW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 44 R16 39, 40 NONE 29, 30, 38-40, 44 1-4, 7, 44 W
1-4, 7, 29, 30, 38-40, 44 R17 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 45 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 44, 45 WNW 1-4, 7, 24, 26, 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45 R18 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 16, 45 29, 38-40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 44, 45 NW 1-4, 7, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38-40, 44, 45 R19 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 16, 45 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 8, 44, 45 NNW 1-4, 7, 8, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45
Indian Point Energy Center ES-10 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario Season Day of Week Time of Day Weather Special 1
Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2
Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3
Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4
Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5
Summer
- Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 6
Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7
Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8
Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9
Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 12 Winter
- Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 13 Autumn Weekend Midday Good West Point Football 14 Spring Midweek Midday Good West Point Graduation
Indian Point Energy Center ES-11 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Indian Point Energy Center ES-12 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 8-10. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates Region Extends to 5 Miles Region Extends to EPZ Boundary Second Wave Completion (if needed)
County Good Weather Rain Snow Good Weather Rain Snow Good Weather Rain Snow Orange 4:35 4:50 5:25 5:05 5:20 5:55 7:30 7:55 9:35 Putnam 4:15 4:50 5:00 4:40 4:50 5:25 6:50 7:10 8:05 Rockland 4:35 4:50 5:25 5:05 5:20 5:55 8:00 8:10 9:10 Westchester 4:50 5:30 6:05 5:20 6:15 6:50 8:25 9:40 10:35 Table 8-11. Ambulatory Evacuees from Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates ETE to Leave EPZ County Good Weather Rain Snow Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates ETE to Leave EPZ ETE to Reception Center County Good Weather Rain Snow Good Weather Rain Snow Orange 2:55 3:05 3:40 3:25 3:35 4:20 Putnam 2.45 2:50 3:25 3:30 3:35 4:25 Rockland 2:55 3:05 3:40 4:25 4:35 3:30 Westchester 3:05 3:30 4:05 4:05 4:30 5:20
Indian Point Energy Center ES-13 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Orange 3:50 4:00 4:35 Putnam 3:40 3:45 4:20 Rockland 3:50 4:00 4:35 Westchester 4:00 4:25 5:00