L-80-226, Forwards Facility Evacuation Time Estimates in Response to NRC 791129 Request

Forwards Facility Evacuation Time Estimates in Response to NRC 791129 Request

ML17339B191
Person / Time
Site:	Turkey Point
Issue date:	07/17/1980
From:	Robert E. Uhrig FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT CO.
To:	Grimes B Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
L-80-226, NUDOCS 8007230442
Download: ML17339B191 (17)

Text

REGULATORY

%FORMATION DISTRIBUTION S EM (RIDS)

ACCESSION NBR:8007230442 DOC ~ DATE: 80/07/17 NOTARIZED NO DOCKET FACIL:50 250 Turkey Point Plantr Unit 3i Florida Power and Light C

05000250 50-251 Turkey Point Planti Unit 4i Florida Power and Light C

05000251 AUTH NAME AUTHOR AFFILIATION UHRIGi R ~ K ~

Florida Power 8 Light Co, REC IP, NAME RECIPIENT AFFILIATION GRIMES i B ~ K ~

Emergency Preparedness Progr am Office

SUBJECT:

Forwards facility evacuation time estimates in response to NRC 791129 request.

DISTRIBUTION CODE:

A043S COPIES RECEIVED:LTR ENCL SIZE:

TITLE: Kmergency Planning Impl'ementation (OL Stage)

NOTES:

RECIPIENT ID CODE/NAME ACTION:

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.O. BOX 629100, MIAMI,FL 33162 yQll/g~

eeet FLORIOA POWER & LIGHTCOMPANY July 17,, 1980 L-80-226 Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Attention:

Mr. Brian K. Grimes, Program Director Emergency Preparedness Program Office U.

S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.

C.

20555

Dear Mre Grimes:

Re:

Turkey Point Units 3 5 4 Docket Nos.

50-250 8 50-251 Evacuation Time Estimates The attached information is being submitted in response to your 'letter'f November 29, 1979..

It is based on work performed 'by our consultant, HMM Associates.

The information has been reviewed and found acceptable by appropriate state and local officials.

Very truly yours, Q 'Robert E. Uhrig Vice. President Advanced Systems.

8 Technology REU/MAS/cph Attachment cc:

Mre J.

P. O'Reilly, Region II Harold F. Reis,,Esquire 800V28.0 V'Q.

PEOPLE... SERVING PEOPLE

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ATTACHMENT Re:

Turkey Point Units 3 8 4 Docket Nos.

50-250 8 50-251 Evacuation Time Estimates The estimates contained herein are based on updated population data and on EYAC, a computer-based, real-time, traffic simulation model-A more detailed description of EYAC is contained in Appendix A to this attachment.

Population data were converted to estimated numbers of automobiles evacuating selected sectors of the 10-mi:le Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).

Two estimates were generated:

a conservative estimate (Figure 1) based on an automobile occupancy of 2.6 persons per automobile, and a less conservative estimate (Figure 2) based on 3-2 persons per automobile.

The two estimates represent a

reasonable range of vehicles departing the EPZ.

An evacuation traffic network, consisting of major streets and intersections within the EPZ, was developed by 'HMM Associ,ates based on a field survey, Dade County road maps, and USGS maps.

Clear time estimates were then made for 7 cases.

Normal weather and adverse weather scenarios were examined for each case.

The results are shown in Tables 1 and 2.

Six categories of special facilities within the 10-mile EPZ were evaluated:

schools, nursing

homes, retirement facilities, Department of Health and Rehabilitative Services (DHRS) residences, incarceration facilities, and hospitals.

It has been estimated that, by using busses dispatched by the Dade County Bus Transportation Office, it should take no longer than l-l/2 hours from the time of dispatch to transport students out of the EPZ-Private school.s are not considered a special case because the total enrollment is a

small fraction of the overall population.

All nursing homes have evacuation plans filed with the Dade County Department of Public Health.

The retirement facil'ities, which also represent a smal.l fraction of the overall population, would probably be evacuated by means of carpooling.

The single DHRS residence would be evacuated by its van.

The incarceration facil.ities involve a limited number of people who would be transported by pol.ice vehicles.

Hospitals would be evacuated by a variety of means (e.g.,

ambulance, private vehicle, local disaster preparedness assistance),,

wi,th the.possibility that some patients and staff may remain sheltered in the hospital, especially if movement would present a greater health hazard than the potential radiological exposure.

The Metropolitan Dade County Civil Defense Agency would be available to assist particular faci'lities in making transportation arrangements.

The Agency has the emergency authority to dispatch Metro Transit Agency Yehicles, Metro Fire-Rescue squads.,

avail:able school

busses, and the local ambulance service.

The islands south and east of Turkey Point that are not served by bridges and highways would be evacuated within several hours by the Florida Marine Patrol and the Publ-ic Safety Department Marine Patrol-

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The Civil Defense Agency estimates that the total notification time should be about 30 minutes.

It is estimated that visual confirmation of evacuation will take approximately one hour.

Alternatives to evacuation, e.g., taking shelter, controlling access to affected areas, and control of foodstuffs, woul'd be considered in cases where evacuation itself carried a risk comparable to the potential radiological exposure.

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NW 2283 W7 l~~

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-l NUMBER OF AUTOMOBILES ASSOCIATED WITH'EAK POPULATION - 1980 (2.6 Persons per auto)

Total number of autos

= 39,255

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NUMBER OF AUTOMOBILES ASSOCIATEO WITH PEAK POPULATION - 1980 (3.2 People per Automobile)

Total number of autos

= 32, 102

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TABLE 1 RANGE OF CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES DURING NORMAL WEATHER (minutes)

Evacuation Area 0-2 miles

South, 0-5 miles West, 0-5 miles North, 0-5 miles

South, 0-10 miles West, 0-10 miles North, 0-10 miles Hi h Estimate 60 60 65 70 60 335 225 Low Estimate 60 60 65 70 60 185 165 The area to the East was not examined as a general case because it 1'ies over water.

The islands to the East were considered as a special case.

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TABLE 2 RANGE Of CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES DURING ADVERSE WEATHER * (MINUTES)

Evacuation Area 0-2 mil.es

South, 0-5 mi.les West, 0-5 miles North, 0-5 mil.es

South, 0-1'0 miles West, 0-10 miles North, 0-1'0 mi-les Hi h Estimate 75 7,5 80 350,,240'ow Estimate 75 75 80

.75 200 180 The area to the East was not examined as a general case because it lies over. water.

The islands to the East were considered as a special case.

• Mixed rain and thunderstonns

APPENDIX A THE EVAC MODEL The EVAC Model is a traffic network simulation model.

Xt was specifically designed to provide evacuation clear-time estimates, and related information, for. use in emergency plan-ning.

EVAC was developed by

'HMM Associates during the Sinter and Spring of 1980.

Dr.

Yosef Sheffi, Warren Powell and Hani Mahmassani are the principal authors of the model.

The EVAC Model applies the prinoiples of.

the

~Hi hwa talons.

Highway -geometric data and population (or automobile) density data within the area to be evacuated are input into the Model.

Based on these

inputs, the Model computes tra ffic vol-umes and travel speeds as a function of demand and capacity for each highway link within the evacuation study area.

Given the evacuation highway network

data, and traffic loading rates and

points, the Model calculates evacuation

routes, evacuation traffic

volumes, and operating.

speed by link.

EVAC simulates the movement o f the traffic along the alternative routes and calculates the.times required for the simulated movements.

Route choices are dynamically determi'ned at each inter-section as a function of predetermined "preference factors" and traffic conditions on the downstream link.

The

.most direct route out of the evacuation area is generally given a higher preference factor; alternate routes are given lower preference factors.

When congestion develops and traffic speeds for pre-ferred routes decline; traffic is routed to alternate'outes with higher travel speeds.

r At each intersection, impedance to traffic flow is calcu-lated.

Where traffic signals exist "green time" for each approach is assigned.

Where no signals

exist, conflicting flows. through the intersection are regulated by the model.

Total flows in this case are a function of'priority" and traf-fic demand.,

Priority is predetermined as priority /Pl or priority f.2.

First priority is given to the dominant or major routes.

Second'riority is given to the minor or secondary

routes, such as those controlled oy stop signs.

To keep track of network performance, the Model updates statistics on the full network and on each link at the end of each specified time increment.

EVAC can calculate both current and cumulative statistics for the entire network and for each link at the end of each time step, and/or whenever requested.

The statistics reported include

capacity, flow,

queues, current and total

volumes, speeds, network occupancy, and summary of departures.

From these

data, all significant, changes in the network can'e traced through the term of 'the evacuation.

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