ML19322D328

Forwards Info in Response to NRC Requesting Evacuation Time Estimates for Certain Areas Around Nuclear Power Reactors.Evacuation Time Estimates Are Conservative

ML19322D328
Person / Time
Site:	Crane
Issue date:	02/04/1980
From:	Herbein J METROPOLITAN EDISON CO.
To:	Grimes B NRC - EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS TASK FORCE
References
TLL-034, TLL-34, NUDOCS 8002110455
Download: ML19322D328 (8)

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j Metropolitan Edison Company Post Office Box 480 (j-1 Middletown, Pennsylvania 17057 717 9444041 Wnter's Direct Dial Numner February 4, 1980 TLL 034 Emergency Preparedness Task Group Attn: Brian K. Grimes, Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.

20555

Dear Sir:

Three Mile Island Nuclear Station, Units I & II (TMI-l & TMI-2)

Operating License Nos. DPR-50 and DPR-73 Docket Nos. 50-289 and 50-320 Evacuation Time Estimates The attached information is in reply to your let ter dated November 29, 1979, requesting evacuation time estimates for certain areas around nuclear power reactors.

The time estimates provided were developed by the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA). Metropolitan Edison believes that PEMA, and those state agencies with which PEMA coordinates radiological emergency response planning, are fully knowledgeable and qualified to provide the requested information. Nevertheless, it should be understood that the enclosed document is a " working" version that will be updated and refined as better information becomes available.

The evacuation time estimates were produced at a time when PEMA's Emergency Plan for TMI was being upgraded to meet recently published criteria, and county plans were being rewritten to correspond to the revised PEMA plan.

Part of this work includes refinement of evacuation routes and procedures.

Thus, the time estimates provided are viewed by Metropolitan Edison as very conservative. Revisions to the state and county plans are likely to result in shorter evacuation time estimates. The use of Dauphin County as the basis for the study provides additional conservatism since Dauphin County is judged to be the county in the vicinity of TMI for which evacuation of the general population and of special facilities will take the longest. Moreover, many of the assumptions used in developing the data ensure that the estimates envelope the possible range of evacuation times.

It is anticipated that evacuation time estimates will be refined as response d

implementation capabilities are enhanced.

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Me:recouan Ed: son Company s a Memcer cf tre General Pu My p

. February 4, 1980 TLL 034 Sincerely, sb L

J. G. Herbein Vice President Nuclear Operations JGH:DB: hah Attachment cc:

J. T. Collins R. Vollmer D. DiIanni J. Roe

Attachm:nt 1 J nutry

, 1980 TLL 034 Problen: Develop time estimates for evacuation of various areas around fixed nuclear facilities.

Facts Bearing on Problem:

1.

All power reactor licensees are required by NRC to submit by January 31, 1980 evacuation time estimates as prescribed in letter of t!ovember 29, 1979 from Brian K. Grimes (see enclosure 1).

2.

Development of time planning factors for Pennsylvania's fixed nuclear facilities was based primarily on conclusions arrived at during a January 18 conference in PEMA offices (attendees Lre listed at inclosure 2).

3.

Dauphin County was used as the sample for planning purposes (see inclosure 3 for special facilities).

Assumptions:

1.

A best estimate of evacuation movement times will be de-graded by a factor of two for both 2 and 5 mile evacuations during adverse weather conditons; the degradation factor will increase to three for a 10 mile evacuation under adverse weather conditions.

2.

Ilospital evacuation in Dauphin County will require 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br /> under best estimated conditions; and will increase to 48 hours5.555556e-4 days <br />0.0133 hours <br />7.936508e-5 weeks <br />1.8264e-5 months <br /> for adverse weather.

3.

flotification time for Amish and other Old Order communities (primarily in York and Lancaster Counties) will require

2. hours.for the 10 mile radius at Peach Bottom (No impact on Till).

4.

Mobilization time prior to formal initiation of evacuation will require 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> for a 10 mile evacuation; 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> for a 5 mile evacuation; and 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> for a 2 mile evacuation (Of course, the reduction of these times would not preclude the major portion of the population from movement out of the risk ared.

Discussion:

Development of movement times 'forf 2; 50:and.10 milerevacuations was based on moving 100% of 1970 census tract population; assuming +.hree people per auto; utilizing route capacity by specific highwais; co-ordinating PennDOT recommendations with each County plan to assure no conflicting guidance; continuing two-way traffic on routes; assuming prior mobilization and stationing of emergency forces from State and county; excluding consideration of traffic using secondary roads;

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. Atttchmtat 1 TLL 034 assuming no adverse weather complications; and a speed of 30-35 mph.

In that the counties around TMI have elected to maintain a 20-mile evacuation capability, the use of routes which would i

accomodate such a movement have been used for the 10, 5, and 2 mile estimates. PennDOT has, nevertheless, prepared an updated evacuation route map for 10 miles.

In view of various refinements in the original TMI plan, a requirenent now exists to review and up-date the 20-mile evacuation map--in coordination with concerned counties. However, for the purposes of this exercise the available data is adequate for time estimation.

l In view of the TMI experience, the State does not comtemplate l

ordering or recommending evacuation by sector within 10 miles of a l

nuclear facility. A 360 degree evacuation would be anticipated.

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the situation permits, resources and emergency forces would be directed to concentrate in that direction perceived to be at greatest i

risk.

i The time estimates developed in this paper are for planning purposes. Each nuclear facility represents a differing set of l

considerations, and certain unique problems. Therefore, the figures that follow in conclusions apply to Dauphin County only.

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Conclusions:==

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Evacuation of general population around TMI - Dauphin County:

BEST ESTIMATE ADVERSE HEATHER 10 Mile 7

Movement 21 6

Mobilization 6

13 27 5 Mile 4

Movement 8

l 3

Mobilization 3

7 11 2 Mile 1

Moyenent 2

1 Mobilization 1

2 3

(Notification times in excess lof 15 minutes, and special movement problens of groups, such as island residents, are additional factors for consideration).

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-* Attachment 1 TLL 034 Evacuation of special facilities around TMI--Dauphin County:

BEST ESTIMATE ADVERSE WEATHER 10 miles 24 (hospitals) 48 5 miles 5

(nursing homes) 10 2 miles 0

(No special facilities) 0 (Obviously, ambulatory and some non-ambulatory hospital patients could be evacuated much more rapidly than 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br />. However, the time factors involved suggest that a take-cover in place option may be the best solution for certain patients. Dept.

of Aging estimates 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> for nursing home evacuation--

Mr. Rogers, phone 783-3746).

Time required for confirmation of evacuation:

The best indicator of evacuation " status" will be radio reports from State Police officers manning traffic control points. As traffic flow out of the risk area decreases one can assume the majority of residents who elect to evacuate have passed through.

In more rural locations arrangements can be made to leave some designated indicator on a gate or door.

However, it is not contemplated that emergency forces will be ordered into a known contaminated area to make a door-to-door check.

Notificatim times in excess of 15 minutes, considering present alert system (.apabilities:

Present alert / warning system capabilities for the general population are far from providing for the goal of 100% notification within 15 minutes.

With present capability a time of 2 to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> would be required to assure greater than 90% notification of the general population within 10 miles of the facility.

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UNITED STATES e1

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llovember 29, 1979 ALL POWER REACTOR LICEilSEES Gentlemen:

This letter, which is being sent to all licensees authorized to operate a nuclear power reactor and to all applicants for a license to operate a power reactor (FSAR docketed), is a request for information regarding estimates for evacuation of various areas around nuclear power reactors. The requested information is in addition to that requested by the October 10, 1979 letter to all power reactor licensees from Darrell G. Eisenhut, Acting Director, Division of Operating Reactors, Office of Huclear Reactor Regulation.

Althcugh evacuation time estimates are expected to be prepared in the course of the upgrading of the state of emergency preparedness as specified in the October 10, 1979 letter, submission of these estimates to the NRC is being requested on an accelerated time scale so that the NRC can identify those instances in which unusual evacuation constraints exist and special planning measures should be considered.

In some cases of extreme difficulty where a large population is at risk, special facility modifications may also be appropriate. The requested information will also enable the MRC to be responsive to a recommendation from the Environment, Energy and liatural Resources Subcommittee of the House Committee on Government Operations.

The information requested in the enclosure should be submitted no later than January 31, 1980.

The October 10, 1979 letter indicated that efforts to develop a model plan were continuing.

It now appears that the model plan will not be completed on a schedule which will be of use in developing upgraded plans for the requested January 1,1980 submittal. The upgraded plan development should therefore proceed on a site-specific basis.

Si ncerely,

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.m Brian K. Grimes, Director i

Emergency Preparedness Task Group Office of huclear Reactor Regulation

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Enclosure:

Request for Evacuation Time D

Estimates t

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REQUEST FOR EVACUATIC!! TitiE ESTIrtATES (AFTER t10TIFICATION) f 1

FOR AREAS flEAR huCLEAR POWER PLA!!TS Cackground Prior to recent HRC requests that means for prompt notification to the public be installed around each nuclear power plant site, a significant component of evacuation time estimates was the time required to notify the public of a need for evacuation.

Studies of actual evacuations that have taken place generally do not distinguish between the time required for notification, the time required to implement the evacgtion, and the time required to confirm that an evacuation has taken place.--

The estimates for time required for evacuations now requested relate primarily to the time to implement an evacuation as opposed to the tice required for notification. These estimates cay be based on pievious local experiences (e.g., chemical spills or floods) or may be based on studies related to population density, local geography and road capacities. No standard method for making such estimates is identified for use at this time. The basis for the method chosen should be described in the response. As an independent check on the evacuation time estimates, agra*:uent with or comments on the time estimates made should be obtained frem the principal local officials responsible for carrying out such evacuations. Such agreement should be documented or the areas of disagree-ment indicated in the submittal.

The format given below is appropriate for reporting to the hRC estimates of the time required to implement evacuation of areas near nuclear power plants.

These estimates, are to be made for the primary purpose of making available, to those officials who would make evacuation decisions in an emergency situation, knowledge of the time required to complete one of the protective action options (evacuation) available for a particular potentially affected segment of the population. A second purpose of these estimates is to identify to all concerned those instances in which unusual evacuation constraints' exist ano that special planning measures should De considered.

In some cases of extrema difficulty where a large population is at risk, special facility modificat. ions may also be considered.

Given a decision to evacuate rather than shelter in an actual event, fewer or more sectors or different distances than given in the reporting format iaight be evacuated should this be the chosen protective action.

For example, three 22-1/2* sectors might be initially evacuated in a. downwind direction (the sector containing the plume and an adjacent sector on each side), followed by the evacuation of other sectors as a precautionary measure.

-1/Ilans, J. M., Jr., and T. C. - Sell,1974 Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, ilational Environmental Research Center, Las Vegas, EPA-620/6-74-002.

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. Format for Reporting Information The areas for which evacuation estimates are required must encompass the entire area within a c rcle of about 10 miles radius, and have outer boundaries corresponding to the plume exposure EPZ. These areas are as follows:

Distance Area 2 miles two 180* sectors 5 miles four 90* sectors about 10 miles four 90* sectors Estimates for the outer sectors should assume that the inner adjacent sectors.

are being evacuated sinultaneously. To the exent practical, the sector boundaries should not divide densely populated areas. Where a direction corresponding to the edges of areas for which estimates have been made is thought not to be adequately represented by the time estimates for adjacent areas, an additional area should be defined and a separate estimate made for this case. The format for submittal should include both a table and a figure (overlaid on a cap) which each give the information requested in items 1 and 2 below. Additional material may be provided in associated text.

Required Information 1.

Two estimates are requested in each of the areas defined in item 1 for a general evacuation of the population (not including special facilities).

A best estimate is required and an aaverse weather estimate is required for movement of the population.

2.

The total time required to evacuate special facilities (e.g., hospitals) within each area must be specified (best estimate and adverse weathe'r).

3.

The time required for confirmation of evacuation should be indicated.

Confirmation times may consider special instructions to the public (e.g.,

tying a hankerchief to a door or gate.to indicate the occupant has lef t the premises).

4.

Where plans and prompt notification systems have not been put in place

-for areas out to about 10 miles, estimates of the times required to evacuate until such measures are in place for the plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ) should also be given. Notification times greater than 15 minutes should be included in the evacuation times and footnoted to indicate the notification time.

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Where special evacuation problems are identified (e.g., in high population density areas), specify alternative protective actions, such as sheltering, which would reduce exposures and the effectiveness i

of these measures.

6.

A short background document should ba submitted giving the methods used to make the estimates and the assumptions reade including the routes and methods of transportation used. This document should also note the agreement or areas of disagreement with principal local officials regarding these estimates.

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i DAU?HIN COUNTY TLL 034 2 Mile: 0 - Hospitals 0 - Nursing liomes

-5 141LE: 0 - Hospitals Frey Village Retirement Center (Av. Census 240) 2 - Nursing flomes

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1020 North Union Street Middletown, PA 17057 (5 Miles - florth) 4 Odd Fellows Home of PA (Av. Census 131) 999 West Harrisburg Pike Middletown, PA 17057 (3 Miles - Northwest) 10 MILES: 3 - !!ospitals 9 - flursing Homes (Includes - 5 Miles)

Hospitals:

Hershey Medical Center (Av. C:nsus 350) 500 University Drive Hershey, PA 17033 (9.5 Miles - North / Northeast)

Community Osteopathic Hospital (Av. Census 175) 4300 Londonderry Road Harrisburg, PA (10.0 Miles)

Harrisburg Hospital (Av. Census 479)

South Front and Chestnut Streets Harrisburg,)PA (10.5 Miles Nursing Homes:

Dauphin County Home & Hospital (Av. Ce'nsus 521)

Paxton and South 25th Streets liarrisburg, PA 17511 (9 Miles Northwest)

Alpine Retirement Center (Av. Census 183)

Ruhenhaus Lane Hershey, PA 17033 (10 Miles North / Northeast)

Colonial Pines Golden Age Home (Av. Census 57) 120 Willcw Road Harrisburg, PA (10 Miles North / Northwest)

Leader Nursing and Rehab. Ctr.

(Av. Census 112)

-800 King Russ Road Harrisburg, PA (10 Miles North / Northwest) q e

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Nursing Homes:

Helen 0. Snavely Memorial Home (Av. Census 22)

(Continued)

R.D. #1 Hummelstown, PA 17036 (8 Miles North / Northeast)

Villa Teresa Nursing Home (Av. Census 178) 1051 Avila Road Harrisburg, PA 17109 (10 Miles North / Northwest)

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Beistline House (Av. Census 60)

South 28th Street Harrisburg, PA-

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