ML20003H385
| ML20003H385 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Vallecitos File:GEH Hitachi icon.png |
| Issue date: | 05/01/1981 |
| From: | Vesely W NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH (RES) |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20003H372 | List: |
| References | |
| ISSUANCES-SC, NUDOCS 8105050698 | |
| Download: ML20003H385 (6) | |
Text
\\
O i
Vit!TED STATES OF A!! ERICA fiUCLEAR REGULATORY C04'11SSI0rl BEFORE THE AT0i1IC SAFETY AflD LICEllS!!4G BOARD In the Matter of
)
)
GC4ERAL ELECTRIC CO.
)
l Docket ifo. 50-70 (Vallecitos fluclear Center -
(Show Cause)
General Electric Test Reactor,
)
Operating License fio. TR-1)
)
llRC STAFF TESTIl10i4Y OF WILLIAll E. VESELY Q.1.
Please state your nane and present position.
A.1.
fly nane is Willian E. Vesely.
I am Acting Chief, Meteorology and Data Branch, Division of Systens and Reliability Research, U.S. fluclear Regulatory Conaission, Washington, DC 20555.
Q.2.
Please sunnarize yoar educecional background and relevant work experience.
A.2.
I graduated from Case Institute of Technology with a B.S. in Physics.
I received an ll.S. and Ph.D. in fluclear Engineering f rom the Uni-versity of Illinois.
I have been previously employed as a Senior Technical Analyst and Statistical Group Leader for Aerojet fluclear Company, as a Senior Scientist for JRB Associates, Inc. and as Section Leader and Special Assistant for Methodology Develonent for the fluclear Regulatory Commission.
A copy of my qualifications is attached to this testinony.
810505069 8
i
- 1. s Q.3.
Describe the scope of our participation in the review of the GETR for this proceeding.
A.3.
I reviesed the probability analyses and models developed by GE's consultant, &ck Benjamin and Associates (JBA), and Lawrence Livernare Laboratory (LLL) and its consultants, TERA, which were prepared for use in predicting the probability of surface rupture at the GETR. As part of this revies, I specifically evaluated the various sensitivity studies that were perforned by GE and myself and the critiques that were made to determine those credible results that could be obtained from the probabilistic modelling.
Q.4.
Please suanarize the results of your review.
A.4.
Based on my review, I concluded that the probability models could be used tG predict gross probabilities of surface rupture.
I also concluded that upper bounds on the probability of surface rupture could be obtained which accounted for various data and nodelling uncertainties. The results of my review are contained in Section B of the Staff's May 23, 1980 SER.
The probabilistic analyses presented in the JBA reports are methodol-ogically sound. The TERA model presents an alternative probabilistic model which is not as empirical and is more traditional; the TEP' nodel does require more data and more assumptions to be made on rupture paraneter relationships.
As pointed out in the reviews, available data are sparse requiring sensitivity studies to be performed to gain any confidence in the rupture offset proba-bilities which are estinated. A wide range of sensitivity studies on variation of parameters were performed for the JBA probabilistic models, which included a variety of sensitivity evaluations perforned in the reviews
i t-of the nodels. The TERA c' del extends the paranetric sensitivity analyses oy developing a different alternate probabilistic model to compate with the JBA models.
Based on the sensitivity analyses and the alternative model, the proba-bility of a surface rupture offset occurring beneath the reactor building has been shown to lie between 1 x 10~6 per year and 1 x 10-5 per year-(to order of magnitude precision), with 1 x 10~4 per year being a conservative upper bound. The probability results for the GETR are credible and should be used to supplement the deterministic evaluations in making a final decision..
p.
,m.
-my 4--7$-
<.-,s,y r
a
1 h
PROFESSIO!1AL QUALIFICATI0,lS OF DR. WILLIA!! E. VESELY A:: ting Chief, flethodology and Data Branch, Division of Systens and Reliability Research (PAS), U.S.14uclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555.
Responsibilities Personally responsible for the planning, initiation, and direction of research prograns for the U.S. liuclear Regulatory Connission in the fields of risk analyses, reliability analyses, data analyses, and statistical analyses.
Per-forns risk assessnents, analyzes risk implications of data collected at power plants, and develops new techniques for risk and reliability assessments.
Directs and coordinates activities of the nenbers of the ilethodology Section.
Itanages contracts issued by the Methodology Section involving several million dollars; directs and coordinates activities of the approxinately 50 technical individuals engaged in the contract work.
Presents research programs and risk evaluations to congressional coanittees, governnental ager.cies and other bodies as required.
Serves as a representative of the Commission in international activities involving risk analyses and reliability analyses. Serves as a Coanission consultant on risk and reliability natters.
Employment History Period: llarch 1974 - September 1980 Organization:
U.S. liuclear Regulatory Comnission Washington, DC 20555
Title:
Section Leader and Special Assistant for ilethodology Development Probabilistic Analysis Staff Period:
February 1973 - flarch 1974 Organization: JRB Associates, Inc.
1600 Anderson Road itcLean, Virginia
Title:
Senior Scientist Responsibilities:
Initiated projects and conducted analyses in the areas of reactor physici statistical analyses, and risk analyses.
Directed individuals involved in the projects.
Recommended technical areas for company involvement.
Served as consultant for the company on reliability and risk 1atters.
L
l t Dr. Willian E. Vesely '
6 Professional qualifications Period: July 1968 - February 1973 Urganization: Aerojet Nuclear Company P.O. box 1845 Idaho Falls, Idaho
Title:
Senior Technical Analyst and Statistical Group Leader Responsibilities:
Developed techniques and computer codes for reactor physics analyses, relia-bility analyses and statistical analyses.
Perforned reliability analyses on nuclear systens.
Developed theoretical and computer nodels for fluid flod and heat transport. flanaged the statistical group consisting of approxi-nately ten technical nenbers. Served as company consultant for reliability problens.
PRESENT COMMITTEE !!EMBERSHIPS IEEE Connittee on Reliability IEEE Nuclear Systens Reliability and Safety Connittee Centralized Reliability Data Organization Steering Connittee, DOE International Task Force on the Risk Evaluation of Rare Events in Nuclear Power Plants, OECD-CSNI International Working Group on Connon 11 ode Failurt Analysts, OECD-CSNI Internatio1al Working Group on Hunan Error Analysis, OECD-CSNI Research Review Group on Probability and Statistics for Risk Evaluations (Cnairaan) i Research Review Group on Risk Evaluations of Liniting Conditions for Reactor i
Operations (Chairnan)
(
Seismic Safety Margins Research Review Group Research Review Group on Flooding Analyses for Nuclear Power Plants l
-Research Review Group on Hunan Error Modeling in Risk Analyses Research Review Group on Rish a;essnents of Light Water Reactors Research Review Group on Risk Assessments of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle i
I
a-
' Dr. Willian E. Vesely
- 3.-
Professional Qualifications PRESEr1T UilIVERSITY ASSOCIATED ACTIVITIES Research Affiliate and Thesis Coordinator, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Thesis Conoittee llenber, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Lecturer, Reliability and Risk Analyses,-George Washington University Lecturer, Reliability and Systems Analyses, University of Washington, Seattle Lecturer, flavy Safety School, University of Indiana lecturer, Reactor Safety School,11assachusetts Institute of Technology PRESEllT SOCIETY MEMBERSHIPS Aaerical Statistical Association Tau Beta Pi (Honorary)
Signa Xi (Honorary)
Phi Kappa Phi (Honorary)
Reviewer, IEEE Transactions on Reliability Reviewer,11uclear Science and Engineering (Af4S)
EDUCATI0tl case Institute of Technology, BS Physics 1974 (Tinken Scholarship, Graduated Suma-Cum Laude)
University of Illinois, f1S fluclear Engineering 1966, PHD iluclear Engineering 1968 (AEC Fellowship, 4.0 average)