ML12335A533

Official Exhibit - CLE000017-00-BD01 - Indian Point Energy Center Evacuation Time Estimate - Study Estimates and Assumptions

ML12335A533
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	12/22/2011
From:	- No Known Affiliation
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
References
RAS 21629, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR
Download: ML12335A533 (1)

Text

United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.

In the Matter of:

(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)

ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit CLE000017 Exhibit #: CLE000017-00-BD01 Identified: 10/15/2012 Submitted 12/22/11 Admitted: 10/15/2012 Withdrawn:

Rejected: Stricken:

Other:

2. STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS This section presents an enumeration of the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of the evacuation time estimates.

2.1 Data Estimates

1. Population estimates are ba sed upon Census 2000 data, projected to year 2003.

County-specific projections are basedupon growth rates estimated by comparing the 1990 and 2000 census data. Where specific areas within the county experiences growth rates that are differ ent than the county-wide average, these areas are considered separately. Estimates of employees who commute into the EPZ to work are based upon the New York State Journey to Work Database, applied to the Year 2000 employment data stratified on an ERPA basis. Specific major employers were also considered.

2. Population estimates at speci al facilities are based on available data, telephone contacts and mail surveys.

3. Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys and the application of Highway Capacity Manual 20001. Roads, which are seasonally closed, are identified in the county-specific assumptions section.

4. Population mobilization times are based on astatistical analysis of data acquired by a telephone survey. No assumptions ar e made, all times aresupported by local data.

5. The relationship between resident population and evacuating vehicles is developed from the results of the te lephone survey deta iled in Appendix F.

Results are reported on a county by county basis:

Vehicle Occupancy Rates Evacuating Persons per Household Vehicles Per Evacuating 2

County Size Household Vehicle O ra nge 2. 84 1. 26 2. 24 P utna m 3. 10 1. 27 2. 44 Rockland 3.36 1.25 2.68 Westchester 2.84 1.24 2.28 1

Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2000.

2 Compare the telephone survey results with Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 75,500 households evacuated the area using 93,400 vehicles, yielding 1.24 evacuating vehicles per household. (Page 5-10).

I ndi an Poi nt E nergy C enter 2-1 K L D A ssoci ates, I nc.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1