ML18096A583

Rev 1 to Estimated Frequency of Loss of Off-Site Power Due to Extremely Severe Weather & Severe Weather for Salem & Hope Creek Generating Stations.

ML18096A583
Person / Time
Site:	Salem, Hope Creek
Issue date:	03/31/1992
From:	HALLIBURTON CO.
To:
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ML18096A580	List: ML18096A579 ML18096A583
References
NUS-5175, NUS-5175-RO1, NUDOCS 9203270164
Download: ML18096A583 (45)

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NUS-5175 Revision 1 March, 1992 F.STIMATED FREQUENCY OF WSS OF OFF-SITE POWER DUE TO EXTEMELY SEVERE WEATHER (F.SW) AND SEVERE WEATHER (SW) FOR SALEM AND HOPE CREEK GENERATING STATIONS PREPARED FOR Public Service. Electric & Gas Company Newark, New Jersey PREPARED BY HALLIBURTON NUS Environmental Corporation

• 910 Clopper Road P.O. Box 6032 Gaithersburg, Maryland 20877-0962

• HALLIBURTON Nl'

NUS-5175 Revision 1 March, 1992 REPORT NUS-5175 HAS BEEN COMPLETELY REFORMA TED AND REVISED

• ii HALLIBURTON NUS

TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1-1 2.0 ESTIMATED FREQUENCY OF LOSS OF OFF-SITE POWER DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER (SW) 2-1 2.1 Annual Expectation of Snowfall 2-1 2.2 Annual Expectation of Tornadoes of Severity f2 or Greater 2-3 2.3 Annual Expectation of Storms with Wind Speeds Between 75 and 124 MPH 2-5 2.4 Annual Expectation of Storms with Significant Salt.Spray 2-8 3.0 ESTIMATED FREQUENCY OF LOSS OF OFF-SITE POWER DUE TO EXTREMELY SEVERE WEATHER (ESW) 3-1

4.0 CONCLUSION

S 4-1

5.0 REFERENCES

5-1 Appendix I Snowfall Data for 100 Stations in the Atlantic Coastal Zone Adjacent to the

' Site Appendix II Tornadoes within 125 Nautical Miles (NM) of Latitude 39.47N, Longitude 75.53W

• iii HALLIBURTON NU

LISf OF TABLF.S Section Page 1-1 Estimated Frequency of Loss of Off-Site Power, SW Group 1-2 1-2 Estimated Frequency of Loss of Off-Site Power, ESW Group 1-2 2-1 Observed Fastest One-Minute Wind Speed Adjusted to True Annual Fastest One-Minute Wind Speed at lOM for Wilmington, Delaware 2-7

• 3-1 Extreme Wind Data for Delaware Breakwater, Delaware and Cape May, New Jersey 3-4

• iv HALLIBURTON NUS

• Section usr OF FIGURES Page 2-1 Mean Annual Snowfall Totals (Inches) in the Vicinity of Salem and Hope Creek Generating Stations 2-2 2-2 Tornadoes within 125 NM of Latitude 39.47N, Longitude 75.53W 2-4

. v HALLIBURTON NU~

'

1.0 INTRODUCTION

• This report presents estimated frequencies of loss of off-site power due to extremely severe weather (ESW) and severe weather (SW) for Salem and Hope Creek Generating Stations. The estimated frequencies for the severe weather components are input into equation (1) and the resulting freq~ency evaluated using Table 1-1 to determine a SW group. The estimated frequency for the extremely severe weather is.evaluated using Table 1-2 to determine the ESW group. These groups are then used to define coping category duration for Salem and Hope Creek Generating Station.

The factors combined in equation (1) yield the estimated frequency of loss of off-site power due to severe weather (Reference 1).

(1) where:

h1 = annual expectation of snowfall for the site in inches b = 12.5 for sites with multiple rights-of-way 72.3 for sites with a single right-of-way h2 = annual expectation of tornadoes of severity fl or greater at the site (i.e., wind speeds greater than or equal to 113 miles per hour) in events per square mile h3 = annual expectation of storms at the site with wind speeds between 75 and 124 mph c = 0. 78 if site is vulnerable to effects of salt spray; 0 for other sites h, = annual expectation of storms with significant salt spray at the site The resulting/ is evaluated using Table 1-1 to determine the SW group.

1-1 HALLIBURTON Nl

Table 1-1 Estimated Frequency of Loss of Off-Site Power, SW Group SW Group Estimated Frequency of Loss of Off-Site Power, Per Year 1 f < 0.0033 2 0.0033 _.$.. f < 0.0100 3 0.0100 _.$.. f < 0.0330 4 0.0330 _.$.. f < 0.1000 5 0.1000_.$.. f The frequency determined in Section 3.0 for extremely severe weather is evaluated using Table 1-2 to determine the ESW group.

Table 1-2 Estimated Frequency of Loss of Off-Site Power ESW, Group ESW Group Expectation of Storms with Wind Speed 2.. 125 MPH, Per Year e < 3.3 x 10 -4 2 3.3 x 10-4 ...$.. e < 1.0 x 10*3 3 1.0 x 10*3 ...$.. e < 3.3 x 10*3 4 3.3 x 10*3 ...$.. e < 1.0 x 10* 2 5 1.0 x 10*2 ...$.. e The procedures used to calculate the estimated frequencies are presented in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Regulatory Guide 1.155 (Reference 1) and NUMARC 87--00, "Guidelines and Technical Bases for NUMARC Initiatives Addressing Station Blackout at Light Water Reactors" (Reference 2). Reference 1 states that these frequencies may be obtained from National Weather Service data from the weather station nearest the plant or by interpolation, if appropriate, between nearby weather stations. The present analysis for storm frequencies is based on nearby weather stations. Site-specific analyses for snowfall quantities and tornado frequencie8 are based upon data provided in the Appendices. References are provided in Section 5.0 and all assumptions and

• 1-2 HALLIBURTON Nl

equations used to perform the analyses are provided in the appropriate sections.

A previous version of this report was prepared in March 1989 and submitted to the NRC for review.

The NRC pointed out that the ESW group should be based on the wind speed at the height of the .

transmission system cables rather than at. a standard lQ,.meter height. A review of the NRC's.

comments, the previous version of this report, and the references cited in Section 5.0 led to this March 1992 revised report.

The revisions to the previous report involve the analysis of storms with wind speeds between 75 and 124 miles per hour (mph), as given in Section 2.3, and those with wind speed~ greater than or equal to 125 mph, as given in Section 3.0. These revised sections reflect such specific items as: an expansion of the discussion demonstrating the appropriateness of using Wilmington National Weather Service (NWS) data to simulate site probabilities, a discussion describing the conservative choice of the vertical wind distribution, the use of the underlying mathematical formulation describing the extreme value probability distribution of the wind speeds rather than the tabular representation contained in the computer program of Reference 3, the use of Wilmington NWS data for the determination of the ESW group with the coastal data used previously included as an extreme upper bound, the use of fastest one-minute speeds (rather than the fastest mile speeds used previously) to better simulate the sustained winds seen during extremely severe storms, and the consideration of wind speeds at a 30-meter height to calculate the ESW group reflecting transmission system cable heights. The analyses of snowfall and tornado probabilities have not been changed from the original report .

• 1-3 HALLIBURTON Nl

. 2.0 FSl'IMATED FREQUENCY OF LOSS OF OFF-SITE POWER DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER (SW)

The estimated frequency of loss of off-site power due to severe weather (SW) consists of four components, each of which is addressed in detail in Sections 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4. The four components are labeled h1, hz, h3 , and h4 in equation (1) and are calculated. using data provided in the references listed in Section 5.0.

The mean annual snowfall total in inches that fall on the site in any year, hu was determined from **

isopleths drawn from snowfall data from 100 stations located in six states along the Atlantic coastal

• zone adjacent to the site. The expected frequency of "f2 +" tornadoes per square mile for the site, h2, was computed from a 38-year period of observed tornado data within a two-degree latitude by longitude rectangle centered on the site. The expected frequency of storms with winds between 75 and 124 mph at the site, h3 , was computed from National Weather Service annual fastest observed one-minute winds at Wilmington, Delaware, revised based on suggestions in Reference 3, utilizing a Fisher-Tippett Type I extreme value distribution. The last component, h4 , the expected frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms with significant salt spray at the site is included for completeness only, since the distance of the site from the coast results in this component being zero for Salem and Hope Creek and does not contribute to the estimated frequency of loss of off-site power due to severe weather.

2.1 Annual Expectation of Snowfall A site-specific annual snowfall analysis for the Salem and Hope Creek Generating Stations site was performed using data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) publications (References 4 and 5). This analysis evaluated mean annual snowfall totals for periods of record 30 years or greater for 100 stations. Stations were selected in the states of Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware~ Pennsylvania, and New York. These data were used to derive mean annual average snowfall totals and their associated gradients along the east coast. The Newark, Delaware snowfall total was omitted from the analysis because of its low value (15.3 inches). A review of data surrounding this station revealed that this value may be anomalous.

Three separate contouring routines were used in creating mean annual snowfall isopleths. All three routines produced similar results in the vicinity of the site area. Figure 2-1 presents isopleths of 2-1 HALLIBURTON Nl

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snowfall totals at these locations using a nearest-neighbor trending analysis. Appendix I presents the

• referenced data, including the city, state, snowfall total period of record, latitude, longitude, and elevation of the recording station.

• Interpolation between the digital isopl~ths for the site area jndicates a 19.3-inch mean annual snowfall total.

2.2 Annual Expectation of Tornadoes of Severity f2 or Greater The annual expectation of tornadoes of severity f2 or greater at the site (i.e., wind speeds greater than or equal to 113 miles per hour) in events per square mile was calculated from data provided by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC), Kansas City, Missouri. The NSSFC data provide the year, month, day, time, beginning latitude and longitude, end latitude and longitude, width, and Fujita-Pearson scale estimate of force.

Appendix II presents 371 tornado observations recorded within a 125-nautical-mile (NM) radius centered on latitude 39.47N and longitude 75.53W, the approximate site location, for a period of record of 38 years, 1950 - 1987. Of the 371 tornadoes included within the 125 NM radius of the site, 119 tornadoes were present with a force of f2 or greater.

The 119 tornadoes of force f2 of greater are shown plotted on Figure 2-2 within a circle of radius 125 NM. Based on the distribution of tornadoes on Figure 2-2, it was determined that a rectangle consisting of 2 degrees latitude by 2 degrees longitude, centered on the site, would best represent the annual expected frequency of tornadoes of severity f2 or greater in events per square mile. This area consists of topographically similar terrain and minimizes the area over water for which little or no reliable tornado data are available. The rectangle representing 2 degrees of latitude by 2 degrees of longitude is shown in Figure 2-2.

The area representing this rectangle consists of the following:

Total area = i4,743 mi2 Larid area = 11, 778 mi2 Water area = 2, 965 mi2

• Reducing the total area of the rectangle by the area of water for which little or no tornado data exist 2-3 HALLIBURTON Nl

LEGEND:

"f Tornaooes ol Force 12 or "Greater Aec1angle - 2 Degrees la111ude by 2 Degrees Longdude Ceruered on LaUtulle 39 74N, LOl\Qllude 75.53W

• S11e FIGURE 2-2 TORNADOES WITl11N 125 NM OF LATITUDE J9.41N, LONGITUDE 75.SJW

• provides the area for which tornado data are recorded. Figure 2-2 indicates 39 tornadoes observed within the rectangle for the 38-year period of record provided by the NSSFC. Therefore, the expected frequency of tornadoes of severity f2 or greater in events per square mile is 39/11,788, or 3.31 x 10-3 , for the 38-year period of record. The annual expectation is therefore, 3.31 x 10-3 /38, or 8.71 x 10-~.

2.3 Annual Expectation of Storms with Wind Speeds Between 75 and 124 MPH The nearest National Weather Service (NWS) station to the site is the first order station at the Wilmington, Delaware Airport, located approximately 15 miles northwest of the site. Reference 6 characterizes the site's and Wilmington's wind-speed distributions as similar. Annual mean wind speeds at the two locations are within 1 mph of each other at a height of 33 feet. The Wilmington data are somewhat greater, probably reflecting in part the greater surface roughness at the site when compared with the airport.

The methodology for estimating extreme winds at the site is detailed in Reference 3. A 39-year_

record (1949-1987) of annual observed fastest one-minute wind data from the Wilmington NWS station were adjusted by adding 13 mph to each observation. This 13 mph constant represents the amount by which the true fastest one-minute speed is taken to exceed the fastest speeds observed at fixed times. The value of 13 mph was the mean value found in Reference 3 for 12 southern California locations. It is greater than the recommendation of 10 mph given by Thom and Simiu, et al, as described in Reference 3, and is used because it will yield greater probabilities. These adjusted wind speeds were then corrected for a standard 10-meter height using log.1Q V{10)=V{Z) _ _ zo_ (1+z- 1oX0.02) z-zd 10 Iog-Zo (2) where:

V(Z) = observed wind speed - mph or mis zo = roughness length - meters z = anemometer height above ground - meters z., = zero plane displacement - meters V(JO) = JO-meter wi_nd speed - mph or mis 2-5 HALLIBURTON Nl

obtained from Reference 7. The zero plane displacement, Zd, is zero for airport-type exposures such as at the Wilmington NWS station. The roughness length, 0.05 meters, is recommended by the latter reference .

. During the 39-year period of record (1949-1987), the anemometer height at Wilmington was at 34 feet from December 5, 1947 to July 16, 1956, and at 20 feet from July 16, 1956 to the present.

Table 2-1 presents the annual fastest observed one-minute wind speed for the 39-year period of record with the corresponding adjustments as described above.

Reference 3 discusses the vertical distribution of wind speed given in equation 2. It is pointed out there that the latter equation reflects an assumption of steady state conditions. This assumption may not be valid for extreme winds. A distribution of the form, log.!Q_

M(1 O) = M(Z) ---'z"'--

z-zd log-zc.

(3) where:

M(Z) = the mode of the extreme wind distribution at height Z

z. = a characteristic height related to surface roughness, Zjl ,000 was proposed and shown to be representative of Hanford, Washington and Kennedy Space Center data. This equation indicates less of a dependence of extreme winds on height than does equation 2, i.e., extreme winds vary less with height than do mean winds. Reference 3 recommends using equation 3 above, because for anemometers located above 10 meters, the resulting extreme speeds at the standard height of 10 meters will be higher than they would be if equation 2 were used.

However, in this case, the adjustments are from 6.1 meters (20 feet; note that the 34-foot anemometer height of the first 8 years of the record is approximately 10 meters and would result in negligible differences between the two methods). Equation 2, which indicates a greater increase of wind speed with height, yields 5% higher values for the IO-meter wind speed than do~ equation 3 for the 20-foot data. Equation 2 is reflected in Table 2-1 and is used in the subsequent analysi*s.

The method of moments is used to estimate parameter values of the Fisher-Tippett Type I distribution used to calculate extreme values of wind speed for the site. In this method, a scale parameter of the 2-6 HALLIBURTON Nl

Table 2-1 Observed Fastest One-Minute Wind Speed Adjusted to True Annual Fastest One-Minute Wind Speed at 1OM for Wilmington, Delaware

• Year 1949 1950 Fastest Observed One-Minute Speed (mph) 38 46 Direction

.NW SSE Plus 131 (mph) 51 59 Anemometer Height (ft) 34 34 Adjustment to 1OM Anemometer Height 51 59 1951 35 SSE 48 34 48 1952 43 SSE 56 34 56 1953 38 NW 51 34 51 1954 58 SSW 71 34 71 1955 40 E 53 34 53 1956 46 WNW 59 34 59 1957 46 WNW 59 20 65 1958 43 NE 56 20 61 1959 42 WNW 55 20 60 1960 42 WNW 55 20 60 1961 43 ENE 56 20 61 1962 44 WNW 57 20 62 1963 48 w 61 20 67 1964 42 300 55 20 60 1965 44 200 57 20 62 1966 32 220 45 20 49 1967 42 240 55 20 60 1968 39 280 52 20 57 1969 39 270 52 20 57 1970 40 320 53 20 58 1971 46 350 59 20 65 1972 42 290 55 20 60 1973. 42 300 55 20 60 1974 35 060 48 20 53 1975 39 310 52 20 57 1976 40 310 53 20 58 19n 40 310 53 20 58 1978 35 280 48 20 53 1979 35 310 48 20 53 1980 39 320 52 20 57 1981 35 320 48 20 53 1982 39 290 52 20 57 1983 39 310 52 20 57 1984 46 300 59 20 65 1985 38 320 51 20 56 1986 35 320 48 20 53 1987 46 320 59 20 65

• 1 NUREG/CR-4492, p. 21 2-7 HALLIBURTON Nl

wind speed distribution is estimated from the standard deviation of the observed extreme value data

• using where:

s = 0.7797 S(u)

(4)

S(u) = the standard deviation of the annual observed extreme wind speeds In addition, the mode of the Type I distribution is estimated from the mean and standard deviation of the annual observed extremes by m = E(u) - (0.5772 s) (5) where:

E (u) = the expected mean value of the extreme data The mean of the annual extreme wind data, after the adjustments described previously is 58.002. The calculated standard deviation is 5.082. Substituting these values in equations 4 and 5 above, the scale parameter is 3.963 and the mode is 55.715. Note that the units of these parameters are mph .

• The form of the Type I, also know as the Gumbel, distribution is, F (u ) = 1-exp { -exp [-(u-nfJ/s )

(6) where:

F(u) = probability that an annual extreme wind will equal or exceed u Substituting the values of the parameters m and s found above into equation 6, and noting that h3 =

F(75)-F(l25), results in h3 being equal to 7 .67 x 10-3* If the above analysis were repeated using the vertical wind speed distribution of equation 3, the probability of the annual fastest one-minute wind speed at 10 meters being within the indicated range would be 3.34 x 10-3

• 2.4 Annual Expectation of Storms with Significant Salt Spray The annual expectation of storms with significant salt spray at Salem and Hope Creek Generating

• 2-8 HALLIBURTON Nl

' Stations, h4 , is given in Reference 2 as 0. This is indicative of the distance of the site from the coast.

• 2.5 Calculation of Severe Weather Group The *estimated frequency of loss of off-site power due to severe weather (SW) at Salem and Hope Creek Generating s*tations based on equation (1) and variaoles, hit h2 , h3 , and h4* as calculated in the previous sections, is f = (1.3 x lo-4)

• 19.3 + 12.5

• 8.71 x 10"5 + (1.2 x 10*2)

• 7 .67 x 10-3 + 0.0 f = 3.69 x 10-3 per year Table 1-1 shows that the SW Group, which corresponds to this frequency, *is 2 .

• 2-9 HALLIBURTON Nl

. 3.0 FSrIMATED FREQUENCY OF LOSS OF OFF-SITE POWER DUE TO EXTREMELY SEVERE WEATHER (ESW)

The analysis of the annual expectation of storms with wind speeds between 75 and 124 mph in Section 2.3 forms the basis of calculating the expectation of storms at the site with wind spe~s greater than or equal to 125 mph. Reference 2 indicates that, .these events are .norinally associated with the occurrence of great hurricanes where high wind speeds may cause widespread transmission system unavailability for extended periods." The widespread system failure is likely to be from transmission cable damage; a cable height of 30 meters is taken to represent a system-wide value.

As discussed in Section 2.3, the Wilmington, Delaware airport NWS temporal. wind speed distribution at a 10-meter height is similar to that at the site. Local surface roughness differences between the airport and the site would be reflected to a lesser extent at a 30-meter height than at a 10 meter height. Accordingly, it is expected that the 30-meter wind speed at the airport is even more representative of the wind speed at the same height on the site than is the 10-meter value. Using equation 2 to find the 10-meter wind speed corresponding to 125 mph at a height 30 meters at the NWS station results in a value of 107.7 mph. The ratio of the latter to the former, 0.861, is in agreement with the value of 0.857 given in Table C.4 of Reference 3 for reducing the 30.5-meter wind. Substituting this speed into equation 6 with m ands as given in Section 2.3, yields the expectation of a storm with wind speeds greater than or equal to 125 mph which will result in widespread transmission system unavailability to the site for extended periods, e, as 2.02 x 10"6 per year. For a vertical wind speed distribution given by equation 3, this expectation would be 8.35 x 10-s per year.

The Salem and Hope Creek Generating Stations site is, "fairly well shielded from most destructive forces of tropical cyclones, since it is not located directly on the Atlantic Coast. In fact, no hurricanes have been documented as having entered the state of Delaware directly from the Atlantic Coast" (Reference 6). Therefore, an analysis of annual extreme wind speeds at nearby coastal sites can be used to demonstrate an extreme upper bound to the annual expectation, e. The wind data used for this upper bound a..nalysis was obtained from Reference 7 and represents the combination of wind data from Delaware Breakwater, Delaware and Cape May, New Jersey. Each of these locations are approximately 50 *miles from the site and include data from 15 tropical storms of which only 2 events are common to both sites.

3-1 HALLIBURTON N1

The period of record available for Delaware Breakwater is 1880-1884, 1889-1941, 1950-1961, and

• 1967, representing 59 years of annual fastest-mile wind data. The period of record for Cape May, New Jersey is 1872-1885 and 1898-1927, representing 44 years of annual fastest-mile wind data. The data are presented in Table 3-1.

The wind speeds given in Reference 7 represent fastest mile winds, i.e., the average speed over the time period it would take for the wind to travel one mile. Accordingly, the time period over which the wind speed is averaged varies with the wind speed; for speeds greater than 60 mph, the averaging period is less than one minute. Reference 3 indicates that the basis for determining extreme wind distributions should reflect a constant averaging period; 60 seconds is suggested. A 60-second averaging period would also better represent the sustained winds expected in a hurricane. These are the types of winds to which transmission systems are designed. The column in Table 3-1 labelled, "Fastest One-Minute Speed at Standard Ht (lOM)" was derived from the true (fastest mile) speed by adjusting the latter according to:

u (60)= u [a-blog (61.5))

I [a-b log(t + 1.5))

(7) where:

U1 = fastest mile wind, mph a and b = constants depending on the underlying te"ain t = fastest mile averaging time, (3600/U), seconds U((j()) = fastest one-minute wind, mph and determining the corresponding 10-meter wind via equation 2. Reference 7 gives a value of Zo for each of the two coastal stations of .05; the corresponding values of a and b, as given in Reference 3, are 1.085 and .156, respectively.

The combined data set contains 103 years of extreme annual wind data, the mean of which is 53 .157 mph with a standard deviation of 10.681 mph. Substituting the standard deviation in equation 4 yields a scale parameter of 8.328 mph. The mode calculated from the mean and standard deviation of

• 3-2 HALLIBURTON Nl

• the annual observed extremes is calculated, using equation 5, as 48.350 mph. Equation 6, with the

• values of m and s given above, indicates an annual expectation of a storm with a sustained (one-minute average) 30-meter wind speed of at least 125 mph (107.7 mph at the standard 10-meter height) as 8.06 x 10"4 per year.

If equation 3, rather than equation 2, were used to adjust the fastest mile wind speeds in Table 3-1 to the standard height, values of m ands would have been found to be 50.483 mph and 8.865 mph, respectively. The 30-meter wind speed of 125 mph would correspond to a 10-meter speed of 114.7 mph; the annual expectation of exceeding this speed would then be 7 .16 x l o-4.

• 3-3 HALLIBURTON ~

..

Table 3-1A

• Extreme Wind Data for Delaware Breakwater, Delaware and Cape May, New Jersey LOCATION: DELAWARE BREAKWATER, DELAWARE Fastest One-Minute Measured True Speed at Standard Ht Storm Date Speed Speed (10M) Direction Type 06/12/1880 116 88 77 NW 03/09/1881 100 76 67 NE 1882 MISSING 01/10/1883 68 53 48 N 02/20/1884 110 84 74 NW 09/26/1898 78 60 54 NE 10/31/1899 82 63 57 NE T 12/09/1900 68 53 48 NW 07/06/1901 72 56 51 NW 03/19/1902 80 62 . 56 NW 09/16/1903 90 69 62 NE T 09/14/1904 114 87 76 NW T 01/25/1905 78 60 54 N 04/23/1906 78 60 54 NW 12/10/1907 86 66 59 s 02/14/1908 80 62 56 s 03/04/1909 92 70 62 NE 12/15/1910 80 62 56 NW 06/12/1911 72 56 51 SW 02/21/1912 86 66 59 SW 01/03/1913 78 60 54 SW 03/02/1914 88 . 68 61 w 01/12/1915 78 60 54 NE 04/15/1916 76 59 53 NW 05/28/1917 78 60 54 w 04/10/1918 82 63 57 NE 08/13/1919 78 60 54 N 02/04/1920 78 60 54 NE 04/23/1921 73 57 52 E 08/03/1922 67 52 48 NW 03/19/1923 70 54 49 UNK 06/25/1924 84 65 58 NW 12/02/1925 84 65 58 NE 11/16/1926 72 56 51 SE 07/11/1927 80 62 56 NW 01/24/1928 120 91 79 SW

• 04/15/1929 72 66 59 NE 3-4 HALLIBURTON Nl

. Table 3-1A (continued)

Extreme Wind Data for Delaware Breakwater, Delaware and Cape May, New Jersey LOCATION: DELAWARE BREAKWATER, DELAWARE Fastest One-Minute Measured True Speed at Standard Ht Storm Date Speed Speed . . (10M) Direction Type 12/02/1930 60 56 51 NW 04/01/1931 62 57 52 NE 03/06/1932 76 70 62 NW 08/23/1933 78 72 64 NE T 1934 MISSING 11/17/1935 70 65 58* N 09/18/1936 77 71 63 NE T 04/26/1937 60 56 51 E 11/24/1938 63 58 55 N 01/22/1939 67 62 58 NW 02/14/1940 71 65 61 N 03/08/1941 65 60 56 NE 01/06/1950 76 70 65 NW 02/07/1951 66 61 55 NW 10/02/1952 70 65 58 w 12/31/1953 66 61 55 w 10/15/1954 75 69 61 s T 01/13/1955 60 56 51 w 09/26/1956 70 65 58 N T 04/08/1957 66 61 55 NW 1958 MISSING 04/02/1959 60 56 51 NW 09/11/1960 98 89 77 NW T 06/02/1961 70 65 58 w 09/16/1967 68 63 56 N T Source: Reference 7, pp. 27, 28 Note: Wind speed In units of miles per hour UNK =Unknown

• T = Tropical Storm True Speed Includes adjustments to measured fastest mile speed based on anemometer type, as given in Reference 7.

Anemometer Height = 65 feet, 1880-1929 66 feet, 1930-1937 48 feet, 1938-1941 68 feet, 1950-1967

• 3-5 HALLIBURTON Nl

Table 3-18 Extreme Wind Data for Delaware Breakwater, Delaware and

• Cape May, New Jersey LOCATION: CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY Fastest One-Minute Measured True Speed at S~ndard Ht Storm Date Speed Speed. (10M) Direction Type 03/20/1872 60 47 43 UNK 03/10/1873 55 43 40 UNK 11/23/1874 60 47 43 UNK 02/25/1875 78 60 54 UNK 12/09/1876 86 66 59 UNK 10/04/1877 80 62 55 NW T 10/23/1878 110 84 73 E T 11/20/1879 112 85 74 UNK T 03/25/1880 110 84 73 UNK 11/20/1881 92 70 62 NW 12/07/1882 80 62 55 NW 11/12/1883 87 67 59 NW 04/10/1884 106 81 71 w 01/26/1885 105 80 70 NW 10/18/1898 62 49 45 E 02/27/1899 64 50 45 w 08/06/1900 50 40 38 N 04/13/1901 44 35 34 E 03/16/1902 51 41 39 s 09/16/1903 63 49 46 NE T 09/15/1904 70 54 50 NW T 11/30/1905 50 40 38 NW 04/23/1906 41 33 32 NW 12/14/1907 48 38 36 E 02/15/1908 66 51 48 s 03/03/1909 44 35 34 NE 12/15/1910 48 38 36 NW 10/18/1911 54 43 41 SE 02/22/1912 54 43 41 SW 01/03/1913 52 41 40 SW 03/01/1914 52 41 40 NW 01/12/1915 50 40 39 NE 04/15/1916 52 41 40 NW 04/05/1917 50 40 39 SE 01/12/1918 60 47 45 SE 03/29/1919 50 40 39 NW 02/04/1920 76 59 55 E 05/04/1921 56 44 42 NE 3-6 HALLIBURTON Nl

Table 3-18 (continued)

Extreme Wind Data for Delaware Breakwater, Delaware and Cape May, New Jersey LOCATION: CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY Fastest One-Minute Measured True Speed at Standard Ht Storm Date Speed Speed (10M) Direction Type 01/02/1922 60 47 . 45 NW 10/23/1923 66 51 49 NE T 01/16/1924 65 51 49 SE 02/26/1925 49 39 38 NW 02/03/1926 43 35 34 NE 02/20/1927 64 50 48 NE Source: Reference 7, p. 94 Note: Wind speed in units of miles per hour UNK = Unknown T = Tropical Storm True Speed Includes adjustments to measured fastest mile speed based on anemometer type, as given in Reference 7.

Anemometer Height = 70 feet, 1872-1899 56 feet, 1900~ 1912 49 feet, 1913-1927 3-7 HALLIBURTON NU

4.0 CONCLUSION

S The estimated frequency of loss of off-site power due to severe weather (SW) at Salem and Hope Creek Generating Stations based on equation (1) and variables, hi. h2 , h3 , and h4* as calculated in the previous sections, is 3.,69 x 10-3 per year. Table 1-1 !\hows that the SW Group, which corresponds to this frequency, is 2.

From Section 3.0, the estimated annual frequency of loss of off-site power due to extremely severe weather (ESW) was determined from the nearest weather station, as required by Reference 1. This weather station, Wilmington NWS, also served as the basis for the description of severe weather wind speeds given above. Reference 6 demonstrates the comparability of the site and Wilmington NWS wind speeds. The resulting expectation of 125 mph winds at a height of 30 meters, the height used to represent a system-wide value of transmission cable heights, is 2.02 x 10-6. This corresponds to an ESW Group of 1, as shown.in Table 1-2 ..The use of heights greater than 30 meters or the use of fastest mile winds, representing a shorter duration gust (29 seconds for 125 mph) than the fastest one minute winds, would not change this ESW group 1 rating.

Wind data from two locations, approximately 50 miles from the site, along the Atlantic coast was also pre8ented. This multiple station analysis was used to extend the data period of record for each of these locations. The expectation of exceeding a fastest one-minute 125 mph wind at the 30-meter level at these locations was found to be 8.06 x la4 per year, corresponding to an ESW Group of 2.

This probability represents an extremely conservative upper. bound to the expectation of such winds at the site.

4-1 HALLIBURTON Nl

5.0 REFERENCF.S

1. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1988. Regulatory Guide 1.155. Station Blackout, August.

2. Nuclear Management and Resoui:ces Council, Inc. 1987. NUMARC 87-00, Guidelines and Technical Bases for NUMARC Initiatives Addressing Station Blackout at Light Water Reactors, November.

3. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1986. NUREG/CR-4492, Methodology for Estimatini:

Extreme Winds for Probabilistic Risk Assessments, October.

4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1985. Climates of the States, Vols 1and2.

5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Local Climatological Data.

6. Public Service Electric & Gas Co., 1988. Hope Creek Generating Station. Updated Final Safety Analysis Rej>ort, Section 2 .3, "Meteorology," April.

• 7. Changery, M.J., 1982. NUREG/CR-2639, Historical Extreme Winds for the United States -

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coastlines, prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, May.

5-1 HALLIBURTON Nl

• APPENDIX I Snowfall Data for 100 Stations in the Atlantic Coastal Zone Adjacent to the Site

• NUS CORPORAT

• SNOWFALL DATA

• Mean Annual Period of Number Snowfall Record of Latitude N Longitude W Elevation City State (Inches) (Years) Years (Deg-Sec) (Deg-Sec) (Feet)

---

-----

MILLBROOK NY

---

51.9

---

1951-80

---

---------- ----------- ---------

30 41-51 73-37 815 MINEOLA. NY 26.7 1951-80 30 40-44 73-38 128 PATCHOGUE NY 29.2 1951-80 30 40-48 73-01 55 PORT JERVIS NY 45.7 1951-80 30 41-23 74-41 470 POUGHKEEPSIE NY 42.6 1951-80 30 41-38 73-53 154 SCARS CALE NY 36 .* 3 1951-80 30 40-59 73-48 199 CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 24.2 1951-80 30 38-02 78-31 870 CULPEPER VA 20.6 1951-80 30 38-28 78-00 420 FARMVILLE VA 16.8 1951-80 30 37-20 78-23 450 FREDERICKSBURG VA 17.7 1951-80 30 38-18 77-28 100 HOPEWELL VA 10.8 1951-80 30 37-18 77-:-18 40 LAWRENCEVILLE VA 12.7 1951-80 30 36-46 77-56 300 LEXINGTON VA 22.9 1951-80 30 37-47 79-26 1060 LOUISA VA 20.1 1951-80 30 38-02 78-00 420 LURAY VA 27.4 1951-80 30 38-40 78-23 1200 NORFOLK VA 7.9 1949-85 37 36-54 76-12 24 STAUNTON VA 25.9 1951-80 30 38-09 79-02 1385 SUFFOLK VA 9.5 1951-80 30 36-44 76-36 22 WARRENTON VA 20.9 1951-80 30 38-41 77-46 500 WARSAW VA 17.3 1951-80 30 37-59 76-46 140 WILLIAMSBURG VA 9.7 1951-80 30 37-18 76-42 70 WINCHESTER VA 27.6 1951-80 30 39-12 78-10 760 WOODSTOCK VA 26.2 1951-80 30 38-53 78-31 887 LYNCHBURG VA 18.5 1945-85 41 37-20 79-12 921 RICHMOND VA 14. 5 1938-85 48 37-30 77-20 164

• SNOWFALL DATA

• Mean Annual Period of Number Snowfall Record of Latitude N Longitude W Elevation City State (Inches) (Years) Years (Deg-Sec) (Deg-Sec) (Feet)

---

----- ----------- --------- ------ ---------- ----------- ---------

'

EPHRATA PA 27.3 1951-80 30 40-10 76-10 485 FREELAND PA 53.7 1951-80 30 41-01 75-54 1900 GETTYSBURG PA 28.1 1951-80 30 39-50 77--14 , 500 HANOVER* PA 32.5 1951-80 30 39-48 76-59 600 LEWISTOWN PA 29.9 1951-80 30 40-36 77-35 I

481 MONTGOMERY PA 29.0 1951-80 30 40-39 80-23 692 MONTROSE PA 87.9 1951-80 30 41-50 75-52 1560 NEW PORT PA 31.8 1951-80 30 40-29 77-08 400 PALMERTON PA 32.8 1951-80 30 40-48 75-37 410 PHOENIXVILLE PA 23.0 1951-80 30 40-07 75-30 105 SHIPPENSBURG PA 38.6 1951-80 30 40-03 77-31 680 STROUDSBURG PA 44.1 1951-80 30 41-00 75-11 480 TOWANDA PA 47.7 1951-80 30 41-45 76-25 745 WEST CHESTEJR PA 26.3 1951-80 30 39-58 75-38 450 YORK PA 32.8 1951-80 30 39-55 76-45 390 PHILADELPHIA l>A 21.8 1943-85 43 39-53 75-15 5 HARRISBURG PA 35.2 1939-85 47 40-13 76-51 338 CENTRAL lPARK NY 28.8 1869-85 117 *40-4 7 73-58 132 JFK NY 24.4 1959-85 27 40-39 73-47 13 LA GUARDIA NY 26.0 1945-85 41 40-46 73-54 11 ALBANY NY 65.1 1947-85 39 42-45 73-48 275 DOBBS FERRY NY 38.9 1951-80 30 41-01 73-52 240 GLENS FALLS NY 64.8 1951-80 30 43-21 73-37 321 GLOVERSVILl.E NY 82.1 1951-80 30 43-02 74-21 760 LIBERTY NY 81. 3 1951-80 30 41-48 74-45 1610

SNOWFALL DATA

• Mean Annual Period of Number Snowfall Record of Latitude N Longitude W Elevation City State (Inches) (Years) Years (Deg-Sec) (Deg-Sec) (Feet)

---

-----

MILFORD DE

---

16.7

---

1951-80

---

---------- ----------- ---------

30 38-54 75-28 30 NEWARK WILMINGTON DE DE 15.3 20.9 1951-80 1948-85 30 38 39-40 39-40 75-44 75-36

, 90 74 BWI MD 21.5 1951-85 35 39-11 76-40 148 CAMBRIDGE MD 15.4 1951-80 30 38-34 76-09 5 CHESTERTOWN MD 20.2 1951-80 30 39-13 76-04 40 COLLEGE PARK MD 17.2 1951-80 30 38-59 76-57. 90 CUMBERLAND MD 34.2 1951-80 30 39-38 78-45 700 DENTON MD . 15. 6 1951-80 30 38-54 75-51 40 HAGERSTOWN MD 26.7 1951-80 30 3*9-39 77-44 660 HANCOCK MD 30.6 1951-80 30 39-42 78-11 428 LA PLATA MD 18.4 1951-80 30 38-32 77-00 140 LAUREL MD 18.5 1951-80 30 39-06 76-54 400 OAKLAND MD 82.0 1951-80 30 39-24 79-24. 2420 POCOMOKE MD 11.6 1951-80 30 38-04 75-33 20 PRINCESS ANNE MD 12.5 1951-80 JO 38-13 75-41 20 ROCKVILLE MD 21.1 1951-80 30 39-07 77-06 320 SALISBURY MD 12.3 1951-80 30 38-22 75-35 10 SNOW HILL MD 14.7 1951-80 30 38-14 75-23 28 NATIONAL AIRPORT DC 16.9 1944-85 42 38-51 77-02 10 DULLAS AIRPORT DC 23.1 1963-85 23 38-57 77-27 290 ALLENTOWN PA 32.4 1944-85 42 40-39 75-26 387 CARLISLE PA 31.6 1951-80 30 40-13 77-12 465 CHAMBERSBURG PA 32.8 1951-80 30 39-56 77-38 640 COATSVILLE PA 25.4 1951-80 30 39-58 77-50 . 342

• SNOWFALL DATA

• Mean Annual Period of Number Snowfall Record of Latitude N Longitude W Elevation City State (Inches) (Years) Years (Deg-Sec) (Deg-Sec) (Feet)

---

-----

ATLANTIC CITY NJ

---

16.4

---

1945-85

---

---------- ----------- ---------

41 39-27 74-34 64 BELVIDERE BOONTON NJ NJ

31. 5 31.4 1951-80 1951-80 30 30 40-50 40-54 75-05 74-24 , 280 275 CAPE MAY NJ 15.4 1951-80 30 38-57 74-56 17 ESSEX FELLS NJ 32.2 1951-80 30 40-50 74-17 340 FLEMINGTON NJ 39.8 1951-80 30 40-31 74-51 140 FREEHOLD NJ 25.4 1951-80 30 40-16 74-15 194 GLASSBORO NJ 17.5 1951-80 30 39-42 75-07 135 HAMMONTON NJ 17.5 1951-80 30 39-39 74-48 85 HIGHTSTOWN NJ 27.3 1951-80 30 40-17 74-31 100 JERSEY CITY NJ 28.9 - 1951-80 30 40-44 74-04 135 LAMBERTVILLE NJ 24.6 1951-80 30 40-22 74-56 60 LONG BRANCH NJ 23.3 1951-80 30 40-19 74-01 15 MILLVILLE NJ 16.5 1951-80 30 39-22 75-04 68 MORRIS PLAINS NJ 36.1 1951-80 30 40-50 74-30 400 NEWTON NJ 36.8 1951-80 30 41-03 74-45 565 NEWARK NJ 28.1 1942-85 44 40-42 74-10 7 PEN BERTON NJ 21. 5 1951-80 30 39-58 74-38 80 PLAINFIELD NJ 30.6 1951-80 30 40-36 74-24 90 SOMERVILLE NJ 26.7 1951-80 30 40-36 74-38 160 SUSSEX NJ 39.8 1951-80 30 41-12 74-36 390 BRIDGEVILLE DE 17.5 1951-80 30 38-45 75-37 50 DOVER DE 17.5 1951-80 30 39-09 75-31 30 GEORGETOWN DE 13.7 1951-80 30 38-38 75-27 45 LEWES DE 15.4 1951-80 30 38-46 75-09 20

• APPENDIX II Tornadoes within 125 Nautical Mfles (NM) of Latitude 39.47N, Longitude 75.53W

• *Denotes those tornadoes within the two-degree regtangle shown on Figure 3-2 NUS CORPORATI

Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75. 53

• 1950 1950*

-- ---

8 7

11 5

Beginning

-- - - - - -- - - - -

39 - 20 40 - 36 75 - 52 76*- 45 Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width Year Month Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min

--- --- --- -- -

(Feet)

---

40 0 .1 F

2 1950 7 5 40 - 35 75 - 42 40 - 39 75 - 28 0 2.

1950 8 29 40 - 13 75 - 00 0 1

• 1950 11 4 40 - 12 76 - 07 40 - 24 75 - 56 300 3 1951 4 29 40 - 54 74 - 36 1200 1 1951 3 30 39 - 50 77 - 14 60 1 1952 4 5 39 - 27 77 - 33 150 1 1952 4 5 39 - 38 77 - 25 150 1 1952 4 5 39 - 07 75 - 45 100 0 1952 8 31 39 - 01 77 - 13 39 - 02 77 - 14 210 1 1952 4 5 40 - 38 74 - 19 100 1 1952 8 10 40 - 00 74 - 36 40 - 25 74 - 04 300 1 1952 4 5 39 - 48 76 - 59 39 - 57 76 - 43 0 3

. 1952 4 5 40 - 14 76 - 48 0 0 1952 4 5 41 - 07 75 - 17 0 1 1952 7 23 40 - 37 77 - 34 0 2 1952 8 16 40 - 37 76 - 43 90 1 1952 8 31 38 - 47 77 - 09 300 1 1953 5 26 38 - 46 76 - 54 600 1 1953 7 2 38 - 58 76 - 30 600 1 1953 5 23 40 - 39 76 - 32 80 1 1953 6 22 40 - 07 75 - 52 40 - 09 75 - 48 50 1 1953 9 12 40 - 40 76 - 41 40 - 39 76 - 35 150 2

• 1953 11 23 40 - 06 76 - 24 60 2 1953 5 17 38 - 52 77 - 51 38 - 52 77 - 44 0 1

• 1954 7 1 39 - 27 75 - 44 150 2 1954 3 15 40 - 44 77 - 32 10 0 1954 4 17 40 - 21 75 - 55 10 1 1954 4 25 39 - 50 77 - 14 39 - 48 76 - 59 1500 2 1954 9 19 40 - 46 76 - 19 100 0 1954 6 26 37 - 56 76 - 52 0 0 1954 9 7 38 - 53 77 - 55 38 - 53 77 - 50 0 1 1954 8 16 39 - 32 77 - 53 0 1

• 1955 8 12 38 - 32 75 - 04 38 - 33 75 - 01 400 2 1955 10 16 40 - 18 74 - 05 40 - 19 74 - 00 300 2

• 1955 3 22 39 - 58 75 - 37 40 - 03 75 - 28 1800 3 1955 8 19 40 - 24 77 - 23 0 2

• 1956 5 6 39 - 15 74 - 50 120 2 1956 7 13 39 - 52 75 - 03 450 1 1956 7 13 39 - 58 74 - 42 450 1 1956 9 6 41 - 03 74 - 06 0 2 1956 6 13 39 - 57 76 - 43 . 0 2

• 1956 8 13 40 - 15 75 - 18 40 - 16 75 - 15 1000 2 1956 9 17 40 - 08 76 - 15 40 - 08 11 150 1

• Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75. 53

• 1957 1957 7

9 5

10 38 38 Beginning Year Month Day Deg Min Deg .Min Deg Min Deg Min

-- -

-

-

- --

52 44

---

75 75

-

-

- --

15 36

-- -

Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width

- --

38 - 25 75 - 06 (Feet)

-- - -- - ------

300 F

• 1 450 1 1957 11 . 19 40 - 46 74 - 58 450 1 1957 4 28 40 - 04 76 - 34 0 1 1957 8 7 40 - 37 75 - 29 20 0 1957 9 15 40 - 49 76 - 52 0 0 1957 11 19 40 - 18 76 - 35 40 2 1957 11 19 40 - 40 76 - 11 40 - 43 76 - 07 0 1 1958 7 14 39 - 48 75 - 28 450 0 1958 5 4 38 - 12 75 - 25 150 1 1958 5 4 38 - 13 75 - 24 150 *1

• 1958 6 13 40 - 09 74 - 42 40 - 11 74 - 39 450 2 1958 6 13 40 - 02 74 - 04 450 0 1958 7 14 39 - 57 75 - 00 39 - 59 74 - 05 60 1

• 1958 7 14 39 - 56 75 - 08 39 - 58 74 - 56 80 2 1959 7 1 39 - 17 77 - 18 39 - 14 77 - 17 300 1

• 1959 7 19 39 - 31 76 - 07 150 2 1960 4 26 39 - 08 76 - 39 90 1 1960 11 19 39 - 26 77 - 12 100 1 1960 4 18 40 - 08 74 - 31 150 1 1960 6 24 40 - 16 74 - 46 40 - 15 74 - 31 600 0 1960 7 1 40 - 03 74 - 03 150 1

• 1960 7 14 39 - 43 75 - 26 39 - 46 75 - 08 1350 2 1960 11 29 40 - 34 74 - 41 90 0

• 1960 6 24 40 - 24 75 - 37 40 - 19 75 - 28 600 2

• 1960 6 24 40 - 12 75 - 15 80 2 1960 7 4 41 - 20 75 - 44 0 2 1960 2 18 38 - 20 77 - 28 60 1

• 1961 4 28 39 - 40 75 - 34 90 3 '

1961 4 16 39 - 32 77 - 25 60 1 1961 6 9 39 - 12 76 - 37 39 - 13 76 - 36 300 3 1961 7 13 39 - 04 76 - 39 1500 1 1961 7 24 39 - 42 77 - 37 39 - 43 77 - 35 1500 1 1961 4 16 40 - 03 77 - 31 330 3 1961 5 26 40 - 04 76 - 18 80 1

• 1961 6 8 40 - 12 75 - 27 600 2 1961 1 29 39 - 58 76 - 40 40 - 02 76 - 15 1500 2 1961 9 3 40 - 18 75 - 00 40 - 20 74 - 57 30 1 1961 7, 13 39 - 19 78 - 12 a 2 1962 6 24 38 - 52 75 - 04 120 1 19.62 7 21 39 - 40 75 - 34 300 1 1962 6 13 38 - 27 75 - 13 150 1 1962 6 24 38 - 31 75 - 45 50 0 1962 11 9 38 - 20 75 - 06 150 1 1962 7 21 40 - 44 75 - 03 0 0

Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75.53

• 1962 8

-

7 27

- --

40 Beginning Year Month Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min

,.

- --

56

-- - -- -

74 - 04

-- -

Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width

- -- --- .- -- ;

(Feet)

- .,. --- -

750 F

2 1962 1 *41 - 04 76 - 13 600 1 1962 5 31 37 - 51 75 - 30 o o 1963 7 19 39 - 28 77 - 23 39 - 31 77 - 07 1800 1 1963 7 19 38 - 46 76 - 46 150 1 1963 3 27 40 - 00 76 - 51 40 - 03 76 - 32 60 2 1963 4 21 40 - 21 75 - 55 450 1 1964 3 26 39 - 03 75 - 24 120 1 1964 3 10 39 - so 75 - 09 40 - 12 74 - 10 600 1 1964 3 26 40 - 12 74 - 04 60 o 1964 3 26 41 - 04 76 - 15 40 1 1964 6 3 40 - 12 77 - 24 0 1 1964 6 15 40 - 25 76 - 29 2400 1 1965 8 1 39 - 03 76 - 03 600 1 1965 10 8 38 - 20 75 - 23 38 - 20 75 - 24 450 1 1965 8 26 40 - 00 76 - 51 0 1 1965 8 26 39 - 12 77 - so 0 0 1966 2 13 39 - 19 77 - 22 150 1 1966 6 28 39 - 32 . 77 - 19 150 1 1966 7 4 40 - 10 75 - 13 60 0

• 1966 11 2 37 - 58 76 - 45 0 3

• 1967 1 27 39 - 01 75 - 35 150 2 1967 8 27 39 - 48 75 - 27 150 0 1967 10 18 39 - 38 75 - 39 50 1 1967 10 18 39 - 41 75 - 36 50 1 1967 1 27 38 - 20 76 - 35 38 - 21 76 - 34 150 1 1967 7 28 38 - 43 76 - 18 38 - 46 76 - 17 60 1 1967 8 3 39 - 33 76 - 01 50 1 1967 . 8 26 39 - 09 77 - 16 300 1 1967 10 18 40 - 20 74 - 47 300 1 1967 9 21 40 - 25 77 - 11 90 2 1967 10 18 40 - 13 76 - 45 40 - 19 76 - 36 90 2 1967 5 7 37 - 37 75 - 48 60 1 1968 8 19 40 - 58 76 - 00 Q 1 1968 9 10 40 - 58 75 - 58 0 2 1969 7 27 39 - 36 76 - 50 30 1 1969 7 27 40 - 04 76 - 42 300 2 1969 11 14 39 - 48 75 - 53 100 1 1969 s 1n 37 - 49 76 - 23 70 0 1969 8

""'9 38 - 52 77 - 14 0 2 1970 7 15 40 - 55 73 - 55 150 2 1970 11 4 39 - 22 74 - 27 300 2 1970 9 27 40 - 42 73 - 30 230 2 1970 3 26 40 - 16 76 - 46 150 2 1970 6 18 40 - 09 76 - 18 1200 1

• Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75. 53

• 1970 6 18 40 Beginning

- -- - -- - -- ---

- 24 76 - 18

---

Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width Year Month Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min

- --

40 - 24

-- - ---

76 .;. 14 (Feet) 2640 .

F

---

_.._ -- -

3 1970 7 2 40 - 09 76 - 37 5280 2

• 1971 7 30 39 - 04 76 - 03 39 *- 08 75 - 55 900 2 1971 9 12 38 - 53 76 - 53 38 - 54 76 - 49 600 2 1971 7 19 40 - 54 74 - 24 2400 1 1971 7 19 40 - 50 74 - 07 1200 1

• 1971 8 27 38 - 55 74 - 56 39 - 19 74 - 47 120 2 1971 8 11 40 - 57 73 - 42 100 1 1971 9 16 39 - 45 77 - 26 o 1 1972 3 3 39 - 25 77 - 25 300 1 1972 9 13 41 - 09 75 - 24 300 2 1973 6 28 39 - 44 75 - 44 o o 1973 4 1 38 - 37 76 - 55 60 1 1973 6 16 39 - 20 76 - 35 o 2 1973 6 16 39 - 32 76 - 12 39 - 33 76 - 11 0 1 1973 2 2 40 - 36 74 - 52 300 2 1973 2 2 40 - 35 74 - 48 400 1 1973 2 2 40 - 40 74 - 58 400 1 1973 5 28 40 - 48 74 - 30 150 3 1973 5 28 40 - 51 74 - 43 150 3 1973 6 29 40 - 42 74 - 16 70 1 1973 6 29 40 - 46 74 - 15 100 1 1973 11 28 39 - 38 75 - 18 o 0 1973 9 18 40 - 39 73 - 30 40 - 40 73 - 27 500 2 1973 5 10 41 - 14 76 - 59 200 1 1973 5 28 40 - 30 75 - 40 40 - 30 75 - 36 300 1 1973 6 28 39 - 40 76 - JS 0 1 1973 6 28 39 - 40 76 - 35 0 1 1973 6 29 40 - 40 75 - 20 0 1

• 1973 6 29 39 - 56 75 - 29 39 - 54 75 - 27 190 2

• 1973 6 29 40 - 14 75 - 02 40 - 15 74 - 59 300 2 1973 11 28 40 - 07 75 - 35 0 o 1973 4 1 38 - 48 77 - 20 38 - 52 77 - 10 300 3 1973 10 2 37 - 42 75 - 45 0 2 1974 1 28 38 - 32 77 - 00 50 1 1974 5 12 39 - 06 77 - 00 200 1 1974 5 12 39 - 06 76 - 36 100 1 1974 8 23 38 - 06 75 - 25 180 1 1974 4 14 40- - 49 74 - 50 300 2 1974 7 24 39 - 48 74 - 12 150 1 1974 9 1 40 - 55 73 - 51 150 1 1974 7 29 39 - 56 77 - 34 60 1 1974 8 4 39 - 45 75 - 52 90 i

. ,

• 1974 8 17 39 - 57 76 - 06 100 2 1974 8 17 37 - 31 75 - 56 50 1

• Tornadoes Within 125 NH Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75.53

• 1975 1975 3

4

-

19.

.3.

38 39 Beginning

-

-

44 10 75 75

- 12

- 32 Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width Year Montn Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min (Feet)

--- - -- --- - -- --- --- --- - -- ------

30*

o F

I 1

1975 7 14 39 - 27 75 - 46 o o 1975 8 4 38 - 43 75 - 17 160 0 1975 8 4 39 - 15 75 - 38 90 0 1975 5 6 38 - 50 76 - 13 0 1 1975 6 5 38 - 32 76 - 53 0 0 1975 6 19 39 - 29 77 - 07 0 1 1975 7 3 39 - 14 76 - 51 0 0 1975 7 13 38 - 31 77 - 01 600 1 1975 7 13 39 - 36 75 - 50 300 1 1975 7 14 39 - 02 76 - 30 300 . 1 1975 7 14 39 - 20 76 - 03 0 0 1975 7 24 39 - 41 77 - 53 150 1 1975 8 4 38 - 16 75 - 47 230 1 1975 4 3 39 - 29 75 - 08 30 0

• 1975 7 13 39 - 30 75 - 13 230 2 1975 7 13 40 - 54 74 - 03 450 1

• 1975 4 3 40 - 02 75 - 40 40 - 05 75 - 39 60 2 1975 6 19 41 - 03 75 - 58 0 1 1975 7 13 40 - 10 74 - 51 0 1 1915 7 24 40 - 44 76 - 06 0 o 1975 8 26 40 - 47 76 - 42 0 o

• 1975 10 11 40 - 17 76 - 29 40 - 10 76 - 11 100 2 1975 11 10 40 - 33 76 - 28 40 1 1975 3 24 38 - 02 77 - 26 600 1 1975 4 25 37 - 50 76 - 38 0 2 1975 7 17 38 - 04 76 - 36 90 0 1975 8 4 39 - 14 78 - 02 300 2 1975 9 6 37 - 42 76 - 31 37 - 42 76 - 28 450 1 1976 3 21 39 - 40 75 - 34 30 0 1976 6 30 38 - 46 75 - 09 0 0 1976 3 21 39 - 44 76 - 02 100 1

• 1976 3 21 39 - 13 75 - 56 300 2 1976 4 25 39 - 42 77 - 00 100 1 1976 8 14 39 - 00 76 - 39 0 1 1976 7 7 40 - 40 74 - 07 40 - 43 74 - 05 150 1 1976 6... 1 40 - 45 73 - 30 0 0 1976 .,) 21 39 - 58 77 - 35 150 0 1976 3 21 39 - 56 77 - 15 150 2 1976 3 21 40 - 12 77 - 08 40 - 11 77 - 02 270 1 1976 3 21 40 - 11 77 - 07 40 - 10 77 - .03 210 0 1976 3 21 39 - 51. 76 -* 45 150 1 1976 3 21 40 - 38 75 - 28 40 - 38 75 - 20 150 1 1976 3 21 40 - 59 75 - 11 300 3

• Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75.53

• 1976 6

-

28 40 Begjnning Year Month Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min

- --

-

- -- - --

32 . 77 Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width

--- --- --- --- ---

- 08 40 -* 34 . 77 - 06 (Feet).

---

300 F

1 1976 6 30 40 - 33 75* - 58 160 1 1976 7 29 40 - 06 76 - 29 230 l 1976 3 21 39 - 06 78 - 09 90 0 1976 7 15 37 - 40 76 - 35 0 1 1977 3 13 39 - 07 75 - 41 90 1 1977 6 9 39 - 02 74 - 28 120 2 1977 8 10 39 - 48 75 - 41 80 0 1977 8 17 39 - 32 75 - 50 240 0 1977 8 10 39 - 15 75 - 00 0 0 1977 9 26 40 - 22 74 - 31 40 - 27 74 - 28 80 0 1977 4 5 40 - 15 76 - 50 200 2 1977 4 23 41 - 21 76 - 34 150 1 1977 6 1 40 - 45 75 - 27 150 1 1977 4 5 37 - 43 75 - 45 150 1 1977 8 12 38 - 11 77 - 17 70 0 1978 3 14 38 - 58 76 - 17 50 1 1978 4 18 38 - 56 75 - 52 30 1 1978 6 20 38 - 41 77 - 06 150 2 1978 6 27 38 - 42 76 - 40 38 - 37 76 - 35 150 2

• 1978 6 27 38 - 44 76 - 16 80 1 1978 7 31 39 - 24 77 - 21 300 2 1978 7 31 39 - 18 77 - 04 120 2 1978 8 11 39 - 28 76 - 35 150 0 1978 8 12 40 - 46 73 - 28 0 0 1978 6 7 39 - 56 75 - 13 300 1 1978 8 7 40 - 50 75 - 57 40 - 52 75 - 52 0 0 1978 8 28 40 - 53 76 - 52 40 - 52 76 - 46 150 2 1978 8 28 40 - 32 75 - 47 60 1 1978 8 28 40 - 47 75 - 19 200 1 1978 1 26 38 - 30 77 - 18 750 3 1979 8 10 39 - 37 75 - 43 300 1

• 1979 9 5 39 - 47 75 - 29 600 2 1979 5 23 39 - 35 77 - 00 450 2 1979 9 s 39 - 34 77 - 11 50 1 1979 9 s 39 - 00 76 - 39 150 1

• 1979 9 s 39 - 27 76 - 25 60 2 1979 g s 39 - 39 77 - 56 30 0 1979 9 5 38 - 09 76 - 31 38 - 18 76 - 47 150 1 1979 9 5 38 - 19 76 - 26 90 1 1979 9 5 38 - 31 77 - 01 50 0 .

1979 9 6 39 - 09 74 - 47 . .o 1 1979 11 26 39 - 31 75 - 14 0 1 1979 6 29 40 - 39 76 - 17 60 1

• 1979 9 5 39 - 46 75 - 44 39 - 48 75 - 48 190 2

' ' . . . Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75.53

• 1979 1979 9

10

-

---

3 41 - 04 Beginning

.5 .. 4 21

- --

75 76

-

-

-- -

48 38 41 Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width Year* Month Day Deg Min Deg .Min Deg Min Deg Min

--- - -- --- - -- - --

05 0

76 35 0

(Feet)

---

90

.90 F

2 1

• 1979 10 . 5 40 - 21 7*5 - 55 o 0 120 2 1979 10 5 40 - 35 75 - 44 0 o 60 0 1979 10 5 40 - 54 75 - 19 0 0 300 2 1979 10 5 41 - 06 75 - 15 0 0 240 1 1979 11 26 40 - 10 76 - 18 0 0 150 1 1979 11 26 40 - 21 76 - 23 o 0 150 0 1979 11 26 40 - 42 75 - 55 0 0 150 o 1979 9 5 38 - 20 77 - 03 0 o 120 2 1979 9 5 38 - 23 77 - 25 0 o 90 1 1979 9 5 38 - 47 77 - 05 39 00 77 16 900 3 1979 9 5 39 - 06 77 - 32 0 0 150 2 1979 9 5 39 - 08 77 - 30 0 0 90 2 1979 7 20 39 - 26 77 - 56 0 0 o 0 1979 10 2 39 - 26 78 - 06 39 29 77 58 0 1 1980 4 4 38 - 04 75 - 34 0 0 so 1

• 1980 6 29 39 - 31 76 - 10 0 0 450 2 1980 6 3 39 - 56 74 - 45 0 0 90 1 1980 4 9 40 - 44 77 - 19 40 43 77 17 20 2 1980 5 6 41 - 08 76 - 05 0 0 40 0 1980 6 7 40 - 01 77 - 04 40 02 76 57 2400 2 1980 6 7 39 - 56 77 - 01 o 0 1200 3 1980 6 7 40 - 08 76 - 13 0 o 120 1 1980 7 16 39 - 57 75 - 37 0 o 150 1 1980 5 24 37 - 33 76 - 32 0 0 80 1 1980 6 3 39 - 00 77 - 40 38 59 77 37 300 2

• 1981 5 15 39 - 36 75 - 50 o o 80 2 1981 9 8 37 - 59 75 - 51 0 0 180 1 1981 6 21 40 - 04 74 - 12 0 0 o 1 1981 7 20 40 - 55 74 - 45 40 52 74 42 750 2 1981 10 26 40 - 52 74 - 53 0 0 1200 2 1981 4 29 40 - 49 75 - 35 0 0 0 2 1981 6 21 41 - 10 75 - 54 41 07 75 51 50 1 1981 7 20 40 - 51 75 - 09 40 55 75 07 200 2 1981 7 26 40 - 52 76 - 15 o 0 0 2 1981 7 26 40 - 46 75 - 35 40 48 75 31 150 3 1981 5 11 37 - 41 76 - 41 0 0 60 2 1981 i 28 38 - 54 77 - 26 0 0 80 2 1982 5 30 39 - 38 77 - 30 0 0 50 1 1982 6 29 39 - 53 74 - 15 0 0 70 2 1982 4 3 40 - 36 75 - 30 0 0 50 1 1982 4 17 41 - 12 76 - 24 41 15 76 21 90 2 1982 5 20 40 - 15 75 - 38 0 0 20 0 1982 6 29 40 - 06 74 - 54 0 0 40 1

• . Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75.53

• Year

• 1983 1983 5 Beginning 22 ,39 - 42 77 - 15 Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width Month Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min (Feet)

--- --- - -- - -- - -- - -- ---. - -- ------

7 *21 39 ~ 10 75 - 43 .

39 - 43 ' 77' - 12 60 110 F

2 3

1983 10 13 38 - 22 76 - 34 38 - 26 76 - 32 110 2 1983 7 21 39 - 40 74 - 17 30 3 1983 3 21 40 - 13 75 - 05 40 - 18 74 - 59 150 1 1983 5 23 41 - 06 76 - 46 41 - 07 76 - 44 90 l 1983 7 21 40 - 30 77 - 19 30 1 1983 8 11 40 - 43 75 - 34 40 - 39 75 - 20 450 l 1983 8 11 40 - 36 75 - 22 30 1 1983 8 29 41 - 12 75 - 25 30 0 1983 8 29 40 - 26 75 - 12 30 1 1983 8 31 37 - 58 76 - 46 180 2 1983 10 13 38 - 44 77 - 46 30 0 1983 10 13 38 - 51 77 - 18 50 0 1983 10 13 38 - 53 77 - 12 120 2

• 1984 7 18 38 - 48 75 - 35 240 2 ....

...*

1984 5 8 38 - 22 76 - 47 38 - 23 76 - 44 240 1  !

1984 5 8 38 - 26 76 - 44 180 1 1984 5 8 38 - 30 76 - 31 50 0 -'

1984 4 5 40 - 12 75 - 06 150 1

• 1984 7 5 40 - 26 75 - 49 40 - 29 75 - 40 900. 2

• 1984 7 5 40 - 27 75 - 46 40 - 28 75 - 42 900 2 1984 7 5 40 - 29 75 - 42 40 - 31 75 - 32 900 2

• 1984 7 5 40 - 28 75 - 38 40 - 29 75 - 32 900 2 1984 7 6 41 - 17 76 - 09 900 2 1985 9 27 39 - 17 74 - 35 30 0 1985 10 5 40 - 31 74 - 24 40 - 40 74 - 13 230 1 1985 10 5 40 - 43 73 - 50 150 1 1985 5 31 41 - 04 76 - 08 41 - 01 75 - 55 1590 1 1985 5 31 41 - 11 75 - 26 50 1 1985 6 3 40 - 54 75 - 19 50 l 1985 7 14 40 - 42 75 - 30 1980 0 1985 7 31 40 - 11 77 - 01 40 - 09 76 - 59 60 1 1985 7 31 40 - 10 76 - 54 40 - 09 76 - 51 60 2 1985 7 31 40 - 04 75 - 12 60 1 1985 8 30 40 - 00 76 - 09 100 1 1986 9 23 39 - 13 74 - 48 90 0 1986 7 13 41 - 14 76 - 44 41 - 28 76 - 34 300 1 1986 8 10 41 - 00 76 - 04 300 0 1986 8 2 39 - 02 78 - 01 39 - 04 78 - 04 150 1 1987 7 2 40 - 06 74 - 43 90 l 1987 7 12 39 - 53 74 - 55 30 1 1987 7 14 39 - 29 75 - 02 30 o*

1987 7 14 40 - 38 74 - 21 20 0 1987 7 14 40 - 26 74 - 28 20 0

.

I Tornadoes Within 125 NM Radius of Latitude 39.47, Longitude 75.53

• 1987

-

21 39 Beginning

- 21 74 - 35 Ending Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Width Year Month Day Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min Deg Min {Feet)

--- 7-- --- --- - -- --- --- - -- -~- --- --- ------

.

F

---

300 . 2*

1987 7 . 26 40 - *59 74 - 57 30 0 1987 7 26 40 - 40 74 - 21 70 1 1987 8 5 39 - 30 74 - 54 150 0 1987 7 12 38 - 56 77 - 28 38 - 55 77 - 27 70 1 1987 7 21 38 - 43 77 - 31 150 0 1954 5 *3 39 - 17 77 - 38 39 - 20 77 - 37 0 0 1962 5 24 40 - 19 74 -, 57 40 - 17 74 - 37 200 1 1978 8 28 39 - 48 77 - 02 39 - 34 76 - 47 60 2 1984 5 8 38 - 36 75 - 54 38 - 43 75 - 36 450 1 1984 5 8 38 - 34 75 - 54 38 - 43 75 - 36 300 1

. I' c ATTACHMENT 4

• • STATION BLACKOUT DURATION CALCULATION - SALEM UNITS 1 & 2 NLR-N92031 FOR 20 DEMANDS DGlA Start Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 Load-run Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 EDG Reliability = (1.0) (1.0) = 1.0 - > 100%

DG lB Start Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20

• Load-run Reliability =

EDG Reliability =

20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 (1.0) (1.0) = 1.0 - > 100%

DGlC Start Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 Load-run Reliability = 19 = 0.95 -> 95%

20 EDG Reliability = (1.0) (0.95) = 0.95 -> 95%

Based on the above results, the Salem Unit 1 average EDG reliability is:

(1.0) + (1.0) + (0.95) = 0.9833 - > 98.33 > .90 3

1 OF4

• t I

• • STATION BLACKOUT DURATION CALCULATION - SALEM UNITS 1 & 2 FOR 20 DEMANDS DG2A Start Reliability = 12.. =0.95 -> 95%

20 Load-run Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 EDG Reliability = (0.95) (1.0) = 0.95 -> 95%

DG2B Start Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 Load-run Reliability = 20 = 1.0 -> 100%

20 EDG Reliability = (1.0) (1.0) = 1.0 - > 100%

DG2C Start Reliability = 19 = 0.95 -> 95%

20 Load-run Reliability = 19 = 0.95 -> 95%

20 EDG Reliability = (0.95) (0.95) = 0.9025 -> 90.25%

Based on the above results, the Salem Unit 2 average EDG reliability is:

(0.95) + (1.0) + (0.9025) = 0.9508 -> 95.08% > .90 3

• 20F4

STATION BLACKOUT DURATION CALCULATION - SALEM UNITS 1 & 2 FOR 50 DEMANDS DGlA Start Reliability = 50 = 1.0-> 100%

50 Ll>ad-run Reliability = 22 = 1.0 -> 100%

22 EDG Reliability = (1.0) (1.0) = 1.0 - > 100%

DGlB Start Reliability = 50 = 1.0 -> 100%

50 Ll>ad-run Reliability = 26 = 1.0 -> 100%

26 EDG Reliability = (1.0) (1.0) = 1.0 - > 100%

DGlC Start Reliability = 50 = 1.0 -> 100%

50 wad-run Reliability = 31 = 0.969 -> 96.9%

32 EDG Reliability = , (1.0) (0.969)= 0.969-> 96.9%

Based on the above results, the Salem Unit 1 average EDG reliability is:

(1.0) + (1.0) + (0.969) = 0.99 -> 99% >0.94 3

3 OF4

STATION BLACKOUT DURATION CALCULATION - SALEM UNITS 1 & 2 FOR 50 DEMANDS DG2A Start Reliability = 49 = 0.98 -> 98%

50 Load-run Reliability = 50 = 1.0 -> 100%

50 EDG Reliability = (0.98) (1.0) = 0.98 -> 98%

DG2B Start Reliability = 50 = 1.0 -> 100%

50 Load-run Reliability = 50 = 1.0 -> 100%

50 EDG Reliability = (1.0) (1.0) = 1.0 -> 100%

DG2C Start Reliability = 49 = 0.98 -> 98%

50 Load-run Reliability = 49 = 0.98 ->98%

50 EDG Reliability = (0.98) (0.98) = 0.9604-> 96.04%

Based on the above results, the Salem Unit 2 average EDG reliability is:

(0.98) + (1.0) + (0.9604) = 0.9801 -> 98.01 % > 0.94 3

40F4