ML103620069

Notes from Davis Besse Re-Licensing Community Hearing

ML103620069
Person / Time
Site:	Davis Besse
Issue date:	12/28/2010
From:	Hoepfl K Univ of Toledo
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
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ML103620068	List: ML103620069 ML103620070
References
License Renewal 2, RAS 19322, 50-346-LR
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Text

NotesfromDavisBesserelicensingcommunityhearing

KathrynHoepfl

UniversityofToledo

December2010

DavisBesserelicensingcommunity

hearing

• Overview

- InFirstEnergyslicenserenewalapplication,they

dismissedthepossibilityforanyformsofalternative

energytoreplacethepowerproductionthatwillbe

lostbytheclosingofDavisBesse.

- Intermittency,largelandrequirements,lowwindand

lightcomparedtootherstates,associatedaesthetic

impacts,andhighcostperkilowattofcapacity.

- Abetterunderstandingofhowtousedifferenttypes

ofrenewableenergywillhelpoffsettheenergy

production

- AlookatOhiosresourcesspecifically,shows

promisingresults



Figure1OverviewofPresentationon12/18/2010



Insection7.2.2.2oftheDavisBesseNuclearPowerStationLicenseRenewalApplication,

EnvironmentalReport,FirstEnergydismissesallformsofrenewableenergyasareplacementforthe

910MWfromDavisBesse.Twotypesthatarelargelyresearchedandwidelyusedtodayaresolarand

windpower,bothofwhichFirstEnergydoesnotfeelaresatisfactoryformsofenergyproductiontobe

appliedtothegrid.Thereasonstheystateareintermittencyofpowerproduction,largeland

requirementsforinstallationofeithertype,thelowwindandsunlightirradianceinOhiocomparedto

otherstates,associatedaestheticimpactsandthehighcostsperkilowatthourofcapacity.Lowwind

speedsandirradianceintheareaandcostsarediscussedinthenotesbyDr.AlvinCompaan.



Itistruethatsolarpanelswillonlyproducepowerduringthedaywhenthesunisshining,and

thatbothwindspeedsandsolarirradiancechangethroughoutthedayandyear;however,bylookingat

systemsthatarealreadyinplaceintheareaandaroundtheworld,wewillbeabletogainabetter

understandingofhowtousethesedifferenttypesofrenewableenergy.Thisstudyspecificallyshows

thecaseforNorthwestOhioandhowitcaninfact,beappliedtothegrid.



Figure2VolatilityvsMaximumOutputofseveralhypotheticalcombinationsystemsofsolarandwind



Ihaveusedtwofunctioningsystemsinthearea,onewindturbineownedbyBowlingGreen

Municipalitiesandonesolararrayonahomelocatedabout20milesnorthoftheturbineinToledo.

Withdetailedstatisticalmodeling,theabovegraphshowsthevolatilityorintermittencyof10

hypotheticalsystemsversustheiroutput.Eachhypotheticalsystemisadifferentweightedcombination

ofsolarandwind,from0100%wind.Asyoucansee,thesystemwiththeleastvolatility(moststable)

isanevencombinationof50%solarand50%wind.



Asinglesolararrayfollowspatternsinitspowerproduction:onlyproducesintheday,notat

nightandalsotheproductionishigherinthesummeronaveragethaninthewinter.Asinglewind

turbinealsofollowspatterns:notasmuchpredictabilityfromdaytoday,howevertheyproducemore

onaverageinthewinterthantheydointhesummermonths.Bycombiningthesetwosourcesatthe

optimalratioforthearea,amuchmorestableandpredictableoutputcanbeobtained.Theslidebelow

showsthehypotheticalcombinationsystemagainstalargecitydemandcurvelikeToledo.Wecanalso

lookatthesystemoveranentireyearandseethatthestandarddeviation(measureofvolatility)is

consistentlylowerthaneitherbyitself.



Figure3OutputofhypotheticalsystemvsdemandcurvefromcentralTexas,similartothatofToledo.



Figure4Standarddeviationofpowerproductionofasolar,windandhybridsystems.

8x10 5

6 4

2 0

Power (W) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Hour of the Week EBCOT Demand Curve, Week of July 24, 2009 Hybrid System Modeled Generated Power



Figure5Closingpoints



Itisimportanttoremindherethattheworkpresentedhereisonlybasedontwospecific

systemsandnotacompleterepresentationofasolarorwindfarm.IfFirstEnergyweretouseits

resourcestoinstalltheserenewableformsofenergythroughouttheregionthattheyservice,the

volatilitywouldbeevenless.TheEuropeanWindEnergyAssociationsannualreportputoutin

November2010reportedthattheintermittencyofwindspeedsinonelocationnegligiblyaffectsthe

overallbaseloadthattheirwindfarmsproduce.Whenwindisstaleinonelocation,itisblowingin

anothersothedropinoverallproductionisnotseenasgreatasitiswiththeonesingleturbineI

studied.Thesameconceptcanbeappliedtosolar:whenitisaseverelyovercastdayinToledo,itmay

beonlypartlycloudyinCleveland(Compaandiscusseshowdiffuselightfromacloudydayalsoproduces

power,notjustdirectsunlight).Byexpandingtheareaoverwhichthepowerisproduced,theeffectsof

weatherchangeswillnotalterthebaseloadaswouldbeexpected.



TheEWEAreportalsoprovidedadescriptionoftheforecastingwhichtakesplacetoknowwhat

kindofwindspeedstoexpect.Theyareabletopredictwindspeeds4hoursanduptoawholedayeven,

inadvancesotheyknowhowtoplanforasharpchange.Extensiveresearchanddevelopmentwouldbe

neededinthisarea,howeveramasteringcouldreallyrevolutionizetheindustry.



InmanynewsarticlesthatarebeingpublishedabouttherelicensingofDavisBesse,theyrefer

backtohowmanyjobsDBprovidestotheSanduskyareaandtheeconomicimpactithas.Implementing

renewableenergysourcessuchassolarandwindwouldcreatehundredsofjobsforeachproject

includingplanning,licensing,installation,maintenance,research,forecastingandmonitoring.



Insection7.2.2.2oftheEnvironmentalReportoftheLicenseRenewalApplicationofDavis

Besse,FirstEnergystatesthatthecriteriaforanalyzingenergyalternativesincludingwindandsolaris

whethertheycanprovidegenerationofapproximately910MWofelectricityasabaseloadsupply.This

sentenceisacontradictionforthefactthat910MWisthepeakproductioncapacityofDavisBesse,

howeverDBonlyprovides8.3%ofallofFirstEnergyselectricityprovided,soitisnotabaseload.Their

analysesarebasedonthefactthatsolaraloneorwindalonecannotsatisfyabaseload,buttheissue

shouldnotbelookedatfromoneformofenergy,itisextremelyimportanttounderstandthattheir

energywillbegeneratedbyacombinationofallthesetypesandthatcombinationwillbeoptimizedto

providethebestpossibleproductionfortheNorthwestOhioarea.



BetweenthetwotestimoniesgivenatthecommunityhearingonDecember18th,2010,wehave

negatedalmosteveryreasonFirstEnergyprovidedfortheirdismissalofrenewableenergyasasuitable

replacementofDavisBesse.Ifmoretimeforgatheringofrespectablesourceswouldallow,theothers

couldbeeasilyannulledaswell.Onthebasisofthesestudies,FirstEnergyhasnoreasonablebackingto

arguethattherearenotoptionsavailableforthereplacementofthepowerlostbytheclosingofDavis

Besse.



References:



1.EWEA, Powering Europe: Wind Energy and the Electricity Grid, (2010).

2.Hoepfl Compaan & Solocha, "Comparison of Solar and Wind Power Output and a look at Real-Time Pricing," (2010).