ML103620069
| ML103620069 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Davis Besse  |
| Issue date: | 12/28/2010 |
| From: | Hoepfl K Univ of Toledo |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML103620068 | List: |
| References | |
| License Renewal 2, RAS 19322, 50-346-LR | |
| Download: ML103620069 (5) | |
Text
NotesfromDavisBesserelicensingcommunityhearing
KathrynHoepfl
UniversityofToledo
December2010
DavisBesserelicensingcommunity
hearing
- Overview
- InFirstEnergyslicenserenewalapplication,they
dismissedthepossibilityforanyformsofalternative
energytoreplacethepowerproductionthatwillbe
lostbytheclosingofDavisBesse.
- Intermittency,largelandrequirements,lowwindand
lightcomparedtootherstates,associatedaesthetic
impacts,andhighcostperkilowattofcapacity.
- Abetterunderstandingofhowtousedifferenttypes
ofrenewableenergywillhelpoffsettheenergy
production
- AlookatOhiosresourcesspecifically,shows
promisingresults
Figure1OverviewofPresentationon12/18/2010
Insection7.2.2.2oftheDavisBesseNuclearPowerStationLicenseRenewalApplication,
EnvironmentalReport,FirstEnergydismissesallformsofrenewableenergyasareplacementforthe
910MWfromDavisBesse.Twotypesthatarelargelyresearchedandwidelyusedtodayaresolarand
windpower,bothofwhichFirstEnergydoesnotfeelaresatisfactoryformsofenergyproductiontobe
appliedtothegrid.Thereasonstheystateareintermittencyofpowerproduction,largeland
requirementsforinstallationofeithertype,thelowwindandsunlightirradianceinOhiocomparedto
otherstates,associatedaestheticimpactsandthehighcostsperkilowatthourofcapacity.Lowwind
speedsandirradianceintheareaandcostsarediscussedinthenotesbyDr.AlvinCompaan.
Itistruethatsolarpanelswillonlyproducepowerduringthedaywhenthesunisshining,and
thatbothwindspeedsandsolarirradiancechangethroughoutthedayandyear;however,bylookingat
systemsthatarealreadyinplaceintheareaandaroundtheworld,wewillbeabletogainabetter
understandingofhowtousethesedifferenttypesofrenewableenergy.Thisstudyspecificallyshows
thecaseforNorthwestOhioandhowitcaninfact,beappliedtothegrid.
Figure2VolatilityvsMaximumOutputofseveralhypotheticalcombinationsystemsofsolarandwind
Ihaveusedtwofunctioningsystemsinthearea,onewindturbineownedbyBowlingGreen
Municipalitiesandonesolararrayonahomelocatedabout20milesnorthoftheturbineinToledo.
Withdetailedstatisticalmodeling,theabovegraphshowsthevolatilityorintermittencyof10
hypotheticalsystemsversustheiroutput.Eachhypotheticalsystemisadifferentweightedcombination
ofsolarandwind,from0100%wind.Asyoucansee,thesystemwiththeleastvolatility(moststable)
isanevencombinationof50%solarand50%wind.
Asinglesolararrayfollowspatternsinitspowerproduction:onlyproducesintheday,notat
nightandalsotheproductionishigherinthesummeronaveragethaninthewinter.Asinglewind
turbinealsofollowspatterns:notasmuchpredictabilityfromdaytoday,howevertheyproducemore
onaverageinthewinterthantheydointhesummermonths.Bycombiningthesetwosourcesatthe
optimalratioforthearea,amuchmorestableandpredictableoutputcanbeobtained.Theslidebelow
showsthehypotheticalcombinationsystemagainstalargecitydemandcurvelikeToledo.Wecanalso
lookatthesystemoveranentireyearandseethatthestandarddeviation(measureofvolatility)is
consistentlylowerthaneitherbyitself.
Figure3OutputofhypotheticalsystemvsdemandcurvefromcentralTexas,similartothatofToledo.
Figure4Standarddeviationofpowerproductionofasolar,windandhybridsystems.
8x10 5
6 4
2 0
Power (W) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Hour of the Week EBCOT Demand Curve, Week of July 24, 2009 Hybrid System Modeled Generated Power
Figure5Closingpoints
Itisimportanttoremindherethattheworkpresentedhereisonlybasedontwospecific
systemsandnotacompleterepresentationofasolarorwindfarm.IfFirstEnergyweretouseits
resourcestoinstalltheserenewableformsofenergythroughouttheregionthattheyservice,the
volatilitywouldbeevenless.TheEuropeanWindEnergyAssociationsannualreportputoutin
November2010reportedthattheintermittencyofwindspeedsinonelocationnegligiblyaffectsthe
overallbaseloadthattheirwindfarmsproduce.Whenwindisstaleinonelocation,itisblowingin
anothersothedropinoverallproductionisnotseenasgreatasitiswiththeonesingleturbineI
studied.Thesameconceptcanbeappliedtosolar:whenitisaseverelyovercastdayinToledo,itmay
beonlypartlycloudyinCleveland(Compaandiscusseshowdiffuselightfromacloudydayalsoproduces
power,notjustdirectsunlight).Byexpandingtheareaoverwhichthepowerisproduced,theeffectsof
weatherchangeswillnotalterthebaseloadaswouldbeexpected.
TheEWEAreportalsoprovidedadescriptionoftheforecastingwhichtakesplacetoknowwhat
kindofwindspeedstoexpect.Theyareabletopredictwindspeeds4hoursanduptoawholedayeven,
inadvancesotheyknowhowtoplanforasharpchange.Extensiveresearchanddevelopmentwouldbe
neededinthisarea,howeveramasteringcouldreallyrevolutionizetheindustry.
InmanynewsarticlesthatarebeingpublishedabouttherelicensingofDavisBesse,theyrefer
backtohowmanyjobsDBprovidestotheSanduskyareaandtheeconomicimpactithas.Implementing
renewableenergysourcessuchassolarandwindwouldcreatehundredsofjobsforeachproject
includingplanning,licensing,installation,maintenance,research,forecastingandmonitoring.
Insection7.2.2.2oftheEnvironmentalReportoftheLicenseRenewalApplicationofDavis
Besse,FirstEnergystatesthatthecriteriaforanalyzingenergyalternativesincludingwindandsolaris
whethertheycanprovidegenerationofapproximately910MWofelectricityasabaseloadsupply.This
sentenceisacontradictionforthefactthat910MWisthepeakproductioncapacityofDavisBesse,
howeverDBonlyprovides8.3%ofallofFirstEnergyselectricityprovided,soitisnotabaseload.Their
analysesarebasedonthefactthatsolaraloneorwindalonecannotsatisfyabaseload,buttheissue
shouldnotbelookedatfromoneformofenergy,itisextremelyimportanttounderstandthattheir
energywillbegeneratedbyacombinationofallthesetypesandthatcombinationwillbeoptimizedto
providethebestpossibleproductionfortheNorthwestOhioarea.
BetweenthetwotestimoniesgivenatthecommunityhearingonDecember18th,2010,wehave
negatedalmosteveryreasonFirstEnergyprovidedfortheirdismissalofrenewableenergyasasuitable
replacementofDavisBesse.Ifmoretimeforgatheringofrespectablesourceswouldallow,theothers
couldbeeasilyannulledaswell.Onthebasisofthesestudies,FirstEnergyhasnoreasonablebackingto
arguethattherearenotoptionsavailableforthereplacementofthepowerlostbytheclosingofDavis
Besse.
References:
1.EWEA, Powering Europe: Wind Energy and the Electricity Grid, (2010).
2.Hoepfl Compaan & Solocha, "Comparison of Solar and Wind Power Output and a look at Real-Time Pricing," (2010).