ML12340A815: Difference between revisions
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.1519886 .0211621 7.18 0.000 .1103901 .19358719. | .1519886 .0211621 7.18 0.000 .1103901 .19358719. | ||
* This shows that excluding these sales strengthens the results used in Dr. 10. | * This shows that excluding these sales strengthens the results used in Dr. 10. | ||
* Sheppard's analysis. The negative impact of the treatment group relative to the | * Sheppard's analysis. The negative impact of the treatment group relative to the | ||
: 11. | : 11. | ||
* control is significantly larger. The results are estimated with greater | * control is significantly larger. The results are estimated with greater | ||
: 12. | : 12. | ||
* precision.13. | * precision.13. | ||
* Dr. Tolley objects to including sales that occurred during one of the times of rapid 14. | * Dr. Tolley objects to including sales that occurred during one of the times of rapid 14. | ||
* house price increase. Dropping these observations altogether is unwarranted. | * house price increase. Dropping these observations altogether is unwarranted. | ||
: 15. | : 15. | ||
* If these time periods are different the preferred approach is to include an indicator Dr.S h eppar d's m odel.Modelw i thanyvacant lotdata excluded. | * If these time periods are different the preferred approach is to include an indicator Dr.S h eppar d's m odel.Modelw i thanyvacant lotdata excluded. | ||
: 16. | : 16. | ||
* or dummy variable in the model to account for any excess returns. 17. | * or dummy variable in the model to account for any excess returns. 17. | ||
Line 105: | Line 105: | ||
_cons | _cons | ||
.1123363 .0226813 4.95 0.000 .0677514 .156921220. *This shows that the result of Dr. Sheppard's analysis remains essentially 21. | .1123363 .0226813 4.95 0.000 .0677514 .156921220. *This shows that the result of Dr. Sheppard's analysis remains essentially 21. | ||
* unaffected by accounting for the two time periods with rapid house price appreciation. | * unaffected by accounting for the two time periods with rapid house price appreciation. | ||
: 22. | : 22. | ||
* The time periods DO show unusually high returns to owning housing, but the impact of | * The time periods DO show unusually high returns to owning housing, but the impact of | ||
: 23. | : 23. | ||
* the IPEC treatment is not statistically different from Dr. Sheppard's original result. | * the IPEC treatment is not statistically different from Dr. Sheppard's original result. |
Revision as of 01:59, 29 April 2019
ML12340A815 | |
Person / Time | |
---|---|
Site: | Indian Point ![]() |
Issue date: | 10/22/2012 |
From: | Sheppard S C - No Known Affiliation |
To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
SECY RAS | |
References | |
RAS 23665, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
Download: ML12340A815 (4) | |
Text
User: Stephen Sheppard Project: IPEC Statistics/Data Analysis name:
<unnamed>log:/home/steve/Documents/IndianPoint/Contention 17/TolleyOriginalLInearSquareRoot.smcl log type: smcl1. use "/home/steve/Documents/IndianPoint/Contention 17/MLS Data STATA Format.dta"
- 2.
- Tolley MLS model from report
- 3. regress askprice ipdist ipdistsq med_income house_age attached rail_dist pilotpay_2011 Source SS df MS Number of obs =
296 F( 7, 288) =
26.44 Model 7028465.17 7 1004066.45 Prob > F =
0.0000 Residual 10937065.5 288 37975.922 0.3912 0.3764 Total 17965530.7 295 60900.1041 Root MSE =
194.87 askprice Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
ipdist ipdistsq med_income 2.382077 .68255 3.49 0.001 1.038658 3.725496 house_age attached rail_dist pilotpa~2011
_cons 577.5368 121.6523 4.75 0.000 338.0965 816.97714.
- Tolley model with IPEC impact modeled as linear in distance5. regress askprice ipdist med_income house_age attached rail_dist pilotpay_2011 Source SS df MS Number of obs =
296 F( 6, 289) =
30.03 Model 6899132.97 6 1149855.5 Prob > F =
0.0000 Residual 11066397.7 289 38292.0337 0.3840 0.3712 Total 17965530.7 295 60900.1041 Root MSE =
195.68 askprice Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
ipdist 46.8946 14.10106 3.33 0.001 19.14079 74.6484 med_income 2.169724 .6755748 3.21 0.001 .8400531 3.499394 house_age attached rail_dist pilotpa~2011
_cons 409.3269 80.90215 5.06 0.000 250.0948 568.5596.
- Tolley model with IPEC impact modeled as proportional to square root of distance7. generate distsquareroot=ipdist^0.5
- 8. regress askprice distsquareroot med_income house_age attached rail_dist pilotpay_2011 Source SS df MS Number of obs =
296 F( 6, 289) =
29.64 Model 6843474.45 6 1140579.08 Prob > F =
0.0000 Residual 11122056.3 289 38484.6238 0.3809 0.3681 Total 17965530.7 295 60900.1041 Root MSE =
196.17 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit In the Matter of
- Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. (Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)
ASLBP #:07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #:05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #:
Identified:
Admitted: Withdrawn:
Rejected: Stricken: Other: NYS000446-00-BD0110/22/2012 10/22/2012 Ori g inall y Identified as BRD000005Dr.To ll ey's original m odelModelw i thIPECimpact
proportional tolinear distance.NYS000446 Submitted: October 22, 2012 askprice Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
distsquare~t 149.1657 48.24852 3.09 0.002 54.20262 244.1287 med_income 2.131092 .6773751 3.15 0.002 .7978782 3.464306 house_age attached rail_dist pilotpa~2011
_cons 296.0152 105.2117 2.81 0.005 88.9368 503.09369.
- Tolley model with IPEC impact modeled as proportional to square of distance10. regress askprice ipdistsq med_income house_age attached rail_dist pilotpay_2011 Source SS df MS Number of obs =
296 F( 6, 289) =
30.60 Model 6979449.73 6 1163241.62 Prob > F =
0.0000 Residual 10986081 289 38014.1211 0.3885 0.3758 Total 17965530.7 295 60900.1041 Root MSE =
194.97 askprice Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
ipdistsq 7.8997 2.169942 3.64 0.000 3.628806 12.17059 med_income 2.254154 .6735366 3.35 0.001 .9284944 3.579813 house_age attached rail_dist pilotpa~2011
_cons 467.6234 73.78841 6.34 0.000 322.3925 612.8542Modelw i thIPECimpact
proportional tosquareroot ofdistance.Modelw i thIPECimpact
proportional tothesquare ofdistance.
User: Stephen Sheppard Project: IPEC Statistics/Data Analysis name:
<unnamed>log:/home/steve/Documents/IndianPoint/Contention 17/RepeatSalesAnalysisOfTolleyQuestions.s m log type: smcl1.
- Here is the model that is the basis of Dr. Sheppard's analysis:
2.Linear regression Number of obs =
1511 F( 2, 506) =
9.07 Prob > F =
0.0001 0.0076 Root MSE = .19957 (Std. Err. adjusted for 507 clusters in id) Robust nomreturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
salepre74~76 distkm
_cons
.1585513 .0196089 8.09 0.000 .1200264 .19707623.
- Dr. Tolley raises a question about inclusion of data where one or more sale 4.
- involved a vacant lot. Consider the impact of excluding these observations
- 5.
- from the data used for the estimates:6. generate salewithlot=0
- 7. replace salewithlot=1 if lot==1 (325 real changes made)8.Linear regression Number of obs =
1222 F( 2, 414) =
11.33 Prob > F =
0.0000 0.0085 Root MSE = .18151 (Std. Err. adjusted for 415 clusters in id) Robust nomreturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
salepre74~76 distkm
_cons
.1519886 .0211621 7.18 0.000 .1103901 .19358719.
- This shows that excluding these sales strengthens the results used in Dr. 10.
- Sheppard's analysis. The negative impact of the treatment group relative to the
- 11.
- control is significantly larger. The results are estimated with greater
- 12.
- precision.13.
- Dr. Tolley objects to including sales that occurred during one of the times of rapid 14.
- house price increase. Dropping these observations altogether is unwarranted.
- 15.
- If these time periods are different the preferred approach is to include an indicator Dr.S h eppar d's m odel.Modelw i thanyvacant lotdata excluded.
- 16.
- or dummy variable in the model to account for any excess returns. 17.
- We use indicator variables for the 1984Q2 to 1988Q1 time period and a separate
- 18.
- indicator for the time from 1999 through 2009.19> , vce(cluster id)
Linear regression Number of obs =
1222 F( 4, 414) =
11.19 Prob > F =
0.0000 0.0251 Root MSE = .18013 (Std. Err. adjusted for 415 clusters in id) Robust nomreturn Coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% Conf. Interval]
salepre74~76 distkm dummy_80sb~e
.0653683 .023289 2.81 0.005 .0195888 .1111477 after98
.0538824 .0133926 4.02 0.000 .0275563 .0802085
_cons
.1123363 .0226813 4.95 0.000 .0677514 .156921220. *This shows that the result of Dr. Sheppard's analysis remains essentially 21.
- unaffected by accounting for the two time periods with rapid house price appreciation.
- 22.
- The time periods DO show unusually high returns to owning housing, but the impact of
- 23.
- the IPEC treatment is not statistically different from Dr. Sheppard's original result.
- 24.
- Modelw i thvacantlot dataexcluded andindicator variablesfor 1984-88and
1999-2009.