ML25104A250
| ML25104A250 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 04/15/2025 |
| From: | Justin Vazquez NRC/NSIR/DPCP/AAFPB |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML25104A246 | List: |
| References | |
| Download: ML25104A250 (1) | |
Text
Use of Physical Protection Modeling & Simulation Tools to Support Security Strategy & Design Advanced Reactor Safeguards & Security Spring Program Review April 15 - April 17, 2025
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Background===
- Most operating nuclear reactors in the U.S. predate current physical security requirements.
- Security features needed to be incorporated after-the-fact.
- In 2008, the NRC emphasized the consideration of physical security with safety during reactor design.
- Modeling and simulation tools have been developed to support security design.
Physical Security Modeling & Simulation Tools
- The industry is using modeling and simulation (Mod/Sim) as a tool to efficiently conduct physical security assessments
- The capabilities of Mod/Sim tools have advanced significantly from their first use in the 1970s
- Mod/Sim assessments can be performed rapidly and consistently
- Mod/Sim tools complement force-on-force exercises
- Potential benefits from the use of Mod/Sim tools:
- Operating nuclear power plants - optimizing physical protection strategies, updating existing security plans
- Advanced reactor designers - efficiently developing and evaluating design plans
Physical Security Mod/Sim Tools (cont.)
- Mod/Sim tools can support both NRC and licensee assessments
- Many iterations of physical protection system and plant design can be conducted to develop an effective physical protection system before proceeding with construction
- Training of the NRC staff will inform licensing reviews and oversight activities
- Mod/Sim tools can be used for creating, adjusting, and evaluating physical protection system designs for other facilities
- NRC-regulated nonpower reactors
- NRC fuel cycle facilities
Types of Mod/Sim Tools
- Digital Tabletop
- Supports subject matter expert discussions and scenario development
- Pathway Analysis
- Assesses probability of interruption (PI)
- Combat Simulation
- Assesses probability of neutralization (PN)
- Triplet representation*
- Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence
- Mod/Sim tools evaluate potential adversary pathways and the probability of adversary defeat
- System effectiveness (PE) is determined through assessments
- Threat is determined by the NRC as the design-basis threat (DBT)
- A realistic value of PE is always less than one
- Kaplan, Stanley, and B. John Garrick (1981), On The Quantitative Definition of Risk, Risk Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp.11-27. ML12167A133 Physical Security Risk Risk Threat DBT Vulnerability PE Consequence Targets
Data Needs for Mod/Sim Tools
- Probabilities of Hit/Kill
- Adversary Capabilities
- Plant Layout
- Response Times
- Barrier Delay Times
- Detection Probabilities
- Target Locations
NRC Licensing & Oversight Activities
- Ongoing collaboration between the NRC Offices of Nuclear Security and Incident Response and Nuclear Regulatory Research
- The NRC has engaged with industry stakeholders on the use of Mod/Sim tools
- Public meeting in July 2023 (transcript available)
- Pre-application discussions with advanced reactor designers on the potential use of Mod/Sim tools
- Development of NRC reports and staff training
- NRC Staff in the process of developing guidance for inspection and licensing reviews
- Incorporating insights from NRC-sponsored research reports and input from industry stakeholders
Preliminary Assessment of Physical Protection Modeling and Simulation ToolsML23346A027 Integration of Safety, Security, and Safeguards During Design and OperationsA Technical Assessment and Regulatory Considerations for Advanced Reactor and Advanced Fuel Fabrication FacilitiesML24275A075 Publicly Accessible Reports Assessment and Demonstration of Physical Security Modeling and Simulation Tools ML25090A245 Also under development:
Hypothetical Nuclear Reactor Facility Modeling & Simulation Data Scenario Comparison
The next slide features a video describing collaborative efforts between the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Office of Nuclear Security & Incident Response on the development of policy for the use of physical protection modeling and simulation tools